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TIgerSoft/Peerless HOTLINE
(C) 2016 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
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  william_schmidt@hotmail.com

 
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HELP
 A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
 Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
 Peerless Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
 Individual Peerless signals explained:
       
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
      http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/ 
 Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
 Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
 Peerless Signals and DJI Charts  - version 7/4/2013
              1965  1965-6    1966   1966-7    1967    1967-8    1968   1968-9   1969      1969-70   1970   1970-1 1971
              1971-2  1972  1972-3    1973   1973-4   1974     1974-5     1975   1975-6     1976    1976-7     1977 1977-1978
              1978  1978-79     1979   1979-80   1980    1980-1   1981    1981-2   1982     1982-1983     1983    1983-1984
              1984  1984-1985 1985 1985-1986    1986  1986-1987  1987    1987-8  1988 1988-9   1989    1989-90
              1990  1990-1  1991   1991-2  1992   1992-3    1993   1993-4   1994   1994-5   1995     1995-1996   1996
              1996-7    1997   1997-8    1998    1998-1999   1999    1999-2000   2000      2000-1   2001   2001-2   2002
              2002-3    2003   2003-4    2004   2004-5     2005   2005-6    2006    2006-7    2007    2007-8    2008    2008-9
              2009      2009-10    2010    2010-11    2011    2011-12     2012     2012-2013

 Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
 How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma? 

 SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.


1/19/2016  ---> Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016  ---> High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016  ---> Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016  ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.

 Earlier Q-Answers

                  New QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)

                 Our Different Signals
                       
Better understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
                                        the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
                                        on technical developments.

                              
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
                              
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators             

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5-23-2016    The DJI could not stay above its 65-dma today.  See in the
                                       Peerless chart below see that its closed 2 points below that ma
                                       today.  Again tomorrow, I would have to go with the Buy B11
                                       provided the DJI can get back above the 65-dma.  Keep in mind that
                                       Seasonality is bullish in the week before Memorial Day
                                       (next Monday), so there is a good chance we will be able to
                                       act profitably on the Buy B11 that was shown on Friday's close.
                                       Traders, notice that the DJI will need to close 38 points above
                                       today's close to bullishly turn up its short-term 5-day ma.




                                                        Modest Risk Now.

                                       Look back at the charts of the past Buy B11s. 
                                     http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/-b11.htm

                                       There are 7 cases where the paper losses were between
                                       1.5% and 3%,  This accords with the 44% historical probability
                                       of the DJI dropping below a head/shoulders' neckline after
                                       a Buy B11.  So, there is still a 35% to 44% chance of an additional
                                       2% decline.

                                                        Modest Gain Potential

                                       When we look back at the Buy B11s from mid-April to the
                                       end of June, we do see that the gains were modest.  So, again
                                       I would expect only a limited rally, probably back above 18000
                                       but not above 18300.
                                             

                                              Buy B11s from Mid-April to End of June.
                                                                      Gain
                                                   
5/8/1959      .046
                                                    5/16/1986    .058
                                                    4/23/1993    .025
                                                    4/17/2006    .046
                                                    ----------------------
                                                             Avg = 4.4% 



                                     
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                   Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver

                                                
Some Stock Ideas
                             Using New "TigerSmart" Optimized Red Buys
                                                  (work in progress)


                            
So how might we play a brief rally now?  The Bullish MAXCPs
                             are one way.  Buying the highest AI/200 stock in the DJI-30, CAT
                             would be another.  A third way, I'd like to suggest here, would be
                             be to buy the stocks giving new optimized Red Buys where the
                             trading system would have gained more than 150% for the last
                             year.  In the next few days I will do a follow-up of these.  There
                             are 11 shown below.

 


============================================================================

                   5-20-2016     Cover short in DIA and take a long position in it
                                      
provided the DJI can stay above its 65-dma
                                       tomorrow. If it cannot do this, we will have to watch to
                                       see if it can get back above its 65-dma on Tuesday
                                       and act then.

                                       Friday brought a reversing Buy B11.  This May B11
                                       has problems and limitations.  As for the upside potential,
                                       it seems unlikely that we will see much more than a nominal new
                                       high above 18300.  This is because Buy B11s in May and
                                       June get gains only about half the size of the 10% gains
                                       that the signal typically brings. 

                                       It is important to appreciate also that the B11 gains are much
                                       smaller in a Presidential Election when the US is not in a world war.
                                       The three of these gained less than 2% on average.


                                       And there is risk, when a head/shoulders pattern is present, since
                                       the DJI breaks below the neckline (here about 17400) 44% of the time.
                                       This alone should probably get us to wait another day.  


                                       But I think we do want to reverse positions on DIA if the
                                       DJI can stay above its 65-dma.  There are bullish forces at
                                       work now. First,  we do see support coming in on each decline
                                       below 17500.  Secondly, we can guess that the FED will be
                                       most reluctant to raise interest rates if the May Jobs Report
                                       is as week as April's.  Thirdly, there ought to be a bit of a
                                       recovery before Memorial Day.  The DJI has advanced
                                       58% of the time over the next week since 1965.  The average
                                       DJI gain is 0.8% over the next two weeks. And fourthly, the
                                       Hourly DJI's OBV-Line did not confirm the recent drop to 17440.

                                              
Note the new Buy B11 on Friday.  This
                                               occurred because the DJI closed back
                                               above its 65-dma.



=========================================================================== 

                   5-19-2016     Stay short DIA. There was no Buy B11 signal today because
                                       the DJI closed below its 65-dma by too great a margin.  The
                                       presence of bearish head/shoulders patterns in the DJI and
                                       SP-500 make this market look different from the one other
                                       case where there was a Buy B11 in May, that was in
1986
                                       when DJI was running upwards and making a string of all-time
                                       highs.

                                      
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                   Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver




                                          The Market Is Being Held Hostage by the FED.
                                       .  When Fiscal Policy Is Frozen in Political Stalemate,
                                          This Is What We Get!

                                       A weak rally from here may still occur.  There may be a
                                       bounce back to DJI-18000 if the the FED does not raise rates in June. 

                                       For one thing, because it is a Presidential Election Year, I think
                                       we can expect the FED to be reluctant to raise interest rates.  For
                                       another, the April Jobs' numbers showed economic growth was
                                       weakening.  To the extent, that Yellen, as a Democrat, chooses
                                       to use her influence, she can say the "consensus" of the next
                                       FOMC meeting is whatever she chooses.  Only if she is outvoted,
                                       will rates go up.

                                       So perhaps, the DJI will try to rally again to 18000 from where
                                       it sits now, close to its 65-dma.  For us, without a Buy signal from
                                       Peerless, any rally would seem to be limited.  And with the
                                       head/shoulders pattern present, there may be other bearish
                                       news which could snag the market. 

                                                             Overseas' Weakness Again

                                       As it is now, overseas' markets are all significantly below their
                                       65-dma.  This calls into question whether their turnarounds can
                                       continue.  If they do not soon recover, we could be right back in
                                       a deflationary world economy.  How long can the US hold
                                       world's economy up then.  

                                       Populism is against any more free-trade deals in this country.
                                       What if the terrible "T" word is used, namely tariffs.  If Trump
                                       or Sanders create a populist demand for tariffs, the actual passage
                                       of such tariffs could tip the already fragile World Economy into
                                       a Depression.   Many economists blame the 1930 Smoot Hawley
                                       Tariff for causing the 1930s' world-wide Depression.
                                      
                                       Let's watch the charts of all foreign ETFs, in Europe, in the
                                       Developing World, in Latin America and in China.
                                                                              

==========================================================================

                   5-18-2016     Stay short DIA.  Sell any longs if they break their steep
                                       Closing Power uptrends.  Every recent rally has failed.
                                       Professionals in New York must be getting tired of seeing
                                       their efforts to support the market be quickly eclipsed
                                       by weak openings the next day. This is because Asian, European
                                       and Emerging Markets seem to have ended their recovery.
;
                                       The Head/Shoulders patterns in the DJIA/DIA and SP500/SPY
                                       are classic. They are flat and they are symmetrical.  A clear
                                       violation of its neckline will occur on a closing below 17400. 
                                       Such a decline would also break the DJI's 65-dma.  The minimal 
                                       DJI downside objective would then be 16900-17000.



                                       When the 65-dma is also broken simultaneously,
                                       these Head/Shoulders patterns are quite reliable. I show
                                       hundreds of these patterns in my Short Selling book.
                                       Their reliability is about 80% with stocks in all markets.

                                       What is striking now is how many of the Tiger Indexes
                                       of various sectors also show head/shoulders patterns.
                                       The history of the DJI since 1888 shows at least a hundred
                                       such top patterns.  Maybe, maybe, there are ten failures, i.e.
                                       where prices fail to fulfill their minimum downside price
                                       objective.  (See the links I posted last night to see many
                                       of these H/S patterns on the DJI.)
                                       See DJIA, DJI-20, DJI-30, Commodities, Foreign ETFs,
                                       Housing, Industrial Materials, Natural Gas, Russell-1000,
                                       Software and SP-500

                                                      
  The 1987 Lessons of Gold

                                             #1  Gold Big 4-Month Rally Warns of A Big Decline in DJI.
                                             #2  Gold's New Warning: A Big Drop Today. See NEM below
                                             how its collapse in October 1987 coincided with the
                                             DJI's 33% sell-off.
                                             #3   Do Not Look to Gold To Be A Safe Haven.

                                            
 1987 Peak in Gold and Subsequent Crash


                                       Today, the leveraged Gold ETFs, NUGT and JNUG fell
                                       more than 25%!  This reminds me how NEM collapsed
                                       in 1987 just before the Crash then.  It had risen sharply
                                       beforehand.  But only when it, too, began a big sell-off
                                       did the general market go over its cliff in October. Not
                                       only that, this case suggests that Gold and Silver will
                                       not be a haven in the coming decline. 

                                 
                                       

                                      
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                 DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                 Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                 Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                    Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                 Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
            QUICKSilver

                                      
I have seen the future and it doesn't work.” Zardoz (1971)

                                        I get the feeling that Hillary, Obama, the FED
                                        and the market are all slow-walking toward the
                                        cusp of an avoidable economic debacle.  The Federal
                                        Reserve's Helicopter is not taking off again.  The
                                        dropping of a trillion dollars into the hands of
                                        Big Banks has run its course.  It is not at all clear what can
                                        hold the market up now?

                                                   Fed Is Seriously Considering Raising Interest Rates
                                                   in June, Meeting Minutes Say  By NY Times - BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
                                                                    "
The central bank sent an unusually frank message to Wall Street, delivered
                                                   in the official account of the Fed's April meeting. "

                                                             
                                                         

                                        The most recent FED minutes makes it seem that they are
                                        no longer able to resist the pressures to raise interest-rates in June,
                                        even though the US economy's growth is stalled at 1%/year
                                        and does not match even the growth of population, much less
                                        meet the needs of millions not working full time.  And
                                        now we have a tightening monetary policy?!

                                        Where is the leadership?  Federal budgets barely get passed.
                                        There is fiscal paralysis.  For years, it seems, the Republican
                                        Congress continues to want to delay the starting of a
                                        much needed, massive Public Works program.  They
                                        pay no political price for that.  The President, a Milton Friedman
                                        follower from Chicago and monetarist, acts like he is too
                                        tired and too disinterested to have another spat with Congress
                                        over such a program, something that is probably our last hope
                                        to spark a real economic recovery.
                                       
                                        Sanders does not help much.  He is totally preoccupied
                                        tilting, Don Quixote-like, with the Windmills of the
                                        Democratic establishment.  He has no chance to become
                                        President but every campaign speech he makes attacking
                                        Hillary's admittedly very poor judgment and close ties with
                                        Wall Street only gives new strength to Donald Trump, the
                                        insecure, egocentric wild-man pretend-Populist. 

                                        So, I expect Trump to become the next President.  The risks
                                        from that seem enormous and obvious.  The kindest thing I can
                                        think to say is that no one has a clue what a Trump administration
                                        will do as President.  Those who run money and own big stock
                                        positions have every right to be perplexed and alarmed if the FED
                                        unplugs the leaking dam walls in June.   (Maybe, they'll
                                        reconsider).

                                        The Head/Shoulders Patterns tell us something not yet apparent
                                        or visible is approaching the market and getting ready to clobber
                                        stocks.  This could be the catalyst for a steep decline.  Once
                                        the market starts melting down, new Hellicopter runs may
                                        not matter.  Who will want to borrow money to buy stocks
                                        when the big dam breaks apart.  Instead, they may just use the
                                        money to buy leveraged short-ETFs.


===========================================================================

                   5-17-2016      Stay short DIA,  Peerless did not issue a reversing
                                        automatic Buy signal today even though the DJI closed 1.6%
                                        below the 21-day ma and the P-Indicator remains positive at +98
                                        and the current Accum. Index (IP21) is only slightly negative
                                        at -.012.

                                      
 Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                  DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                  Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                  Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                     Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                  Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
            QUICKSilver



                                                           Tomorrow - Possibly a Buy,
                                                           But Possibly A Judged Sell, too
                                                           If Both Occur, They Cancel
                                                           out Each Other.

                                        If breadth is no worse than today, it will only take a small
                                        additional decline to bring a Peerless Buy provided the
                                        DJI closes not much below its 65-dma now at 16427.
                                        However, note that a deeper decline or one on worse breadth
                                        than today will most likely not bring a Peerless Buy signal.

                                        We also have to be concerned about getting either a Tiger S5,
                                        a Peerless S10 or a judged S10 if the DJI closes decisively
                                        below the H/S neckline drawn roughly through the DJI's
                                        recent hypothetical lows, 17440. 

                                        The H/S patterns we see now in the DJIA, SP-500 and OEX
                                        as well as the Tiger Indexes of DJI, SP-500 are nearly perfectly
                                        symmetrical, flat and very easy for all chartists to spot.  Their
                                        notoriety is thus enhanced and their bearishness thus becomes
                                        more self-fulfilling.  

                                        With head/shoulders patterns, we often only later learn
                                        why they are formed, i.e. what events like invasions,
                                        missile crises, assassinations, terrorist attacks, new economic
                                        policies lie behind them,  But because Gold stocks are rising
                                        very steeply, I believe that they are screaming a message
                                        of caution for the general market.  So, stay short DIA for
                                        now.

                                                    A
Judged S10 Would Still Be Bearish.
      
                                        Because these recent DJI lows set up a neckline in a head/shoulders
                                        pattern that is less than 40 trading days long, we may have to
                                        judge a Sell S10 if the DJI closes clearly below 17444. 

                                        That there have been no fewer than 7 reversals back up from
                                        the neckline-support zone of  17444 to 17530, makes any decisive
                                        breakdown more dangerous.  These tests of lows here go back
                                        33 trading days. 
                                                                
H/S      
                                                                                 Pattern's
                                                                                 neckline lows:

                                               4/1/2016     17515
                                               4/7/2016     17444
                                               5/4/2016     17530
                                               5/6/2016     17519
                                               5/13/2016   17500
                                               5/17/2016   17450
 
           More Reading
about Sell S10s: Both Automatic and Judged.

Judged S10 - TigerSoft

www.tigersoft.com/judgedS10/index.html
Judged S10 Rules The results from Peerless using automatic signals are excellent. But they can be improved if one uses a judged S10. The judged Sell S10 ...

TigerSoft/Peerless Hotline

www.tigersoft.com/HLZA15/
Oct 3, 2015 - 9/30/2015  The operative Peerless signal is still the Sell S14. A DJI close below the well-tested, flat support at 17000 would bes considered a judged Sell S10.
 


 

==========================================================================

                  5-16-2016      We still have an operative Sell S2 to guide us.  Stay
                                       short DIA.

                                       In Presidential Election years this signal has averaged about
                                       a 7.2% decline in the DJI.  To reach this, the DJI will need
                                       to close near 16800.  Given the positive breadth, blue
                                       Accumulation and the rising 65-dma, such a target seems
                                       unlikely to be reached even given the DJI's head and shoulder
                                       pattern. 

                                       We could cover our short in DIA if the DJI drops back towards
                                       that 17500 neckline-support.  But, I would just trust that the Peerless
                                       system will tell us when it is time to buy back DIA and
                                       go long.  This is still a very defensive market.  If that
                                       changes and volume rises more on an advance, we can
                                       then reconsider waiting for Peerless to tell us to buy
                                       again.  But right now, let's wait to cover.  Buying at the
                                       end of May often works out better.

                                       This may all be mooted since a close near 17450 will likely bring
                                       an automatic Buy B12, which is based on buying when
                                       the DJI closes at a rising 65-dma that has not been
                                       violated for 10 weeks or so.  

                                    

                                   Trading Range Peerless Sell S2s
                            in A Presidential Election Year, since 1928|
         PE = Presidential                 Gain if DJI Sold Short
         Election Year                     and this position was
                                           closed on next Peerless Buy.    
=========================================================================
19480615  PE  S2             193.2         .05     perfect 
19481022  PE  S2             189.8         .061    perfect

19560409  PE  S2             518.5         .079    perfect 
19560802  PE  S2             521           .075    perfect 
20000425  PE  S2             11124.82      .049    perfect
20000906  PE  S2             11310.64      .095    perfect
20001030  PE  S2             10835.77      .060    Very small Paper Loss 

20040902  PE  S2             10290.28      .038    Very small Paper Loss  
------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                           Avg = 7.2%  


                                       Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM  
                                                 DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                 Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                 Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                    Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                 Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver Warren Buffet bet $1.1 Billion on Apples's stock in the first quarter. He is not prone to make bad investment decisions. He has friends on the FED. They must have told him that they would not be raising rates. But now he is down about 17% on that investment already. Was his timing just bad? Perhaps, tech stocks are just out of favor temporarily and this announcement will be the catalyst that they need. Let's keep an eye on AAPL and TECL, the leveraged ETF for techs. Specifically, we will need to see their Closing Power downtrends be violated with them above their 65-dma. Until that happens, I would assume the risks are judged by Professionals here to be greater than the potential rewards. AAPL To be a false breakdown, AAPL will need to stay above its support-line shown below for a week.



                    TECL looks ready to challenge 40 again if its Closing Power can
                    break its downtrend and it can close back above its rising 65-dma.
                    A strong day tomorrow would do that.



==========================================================================

                  5-13-2016      The Sell S2 still operates. Stay short DIA.  We must
                                       now wait to see if the DJIA, DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM
                                       can find the necessary support just below where each closed
                                       on Friday, at the necklines of their head/shoulders patterns.
                                       Another brief rally is likely this week.  The rally would not
                                       void the emerging head/shoulders and probably would quickly
                                       fail. Commonly, head/shoulders patterns' right shoulders last
                                       as long to form as the left shoulders took.

                                                   
DJI's Bearish Head/Shoulders
                                          must be scaring technically minded traders.





                                       To get much a rally, we will need to see much more Blue
                                       upside volume.  See above the 10-day ma of Up and Down
                                       Volume. 

                                      
 Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                 DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                 Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                 Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                    Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                 Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver
                                               
                                       In broad trading ranges, bids usually disappear in their middle.
                                       We are in a broad trading range now with resistance at
                                       18000 as resistance and 16000 as support.  So, there is a
                                       risk here that the market will drop sharply if the 65-dma
                                       at 17250 is broken. Neither the Republican or likely
                                       Democrat candidate for President generate a lot of public
                                       trust or confidence.

                                       But interest rates are likely to remain low, Mays tend to
                                       bring shallow declines and Peerless will likely give a Buy B9
                                       if the DJI closes more than 3% below the 21-day ma since
                                       the P-Indicator is positive.  It may also give a Buy B11 if
                                       its closes near and above its 65-dma or produce a simple
                                       Buy B2 around 17450. 

                                       A bigger drop with very bad breadth and high volume would
                                       have to be judged a head/shoulders Sell S10/S5, as in May
                                       2010, thereby nullifying any Buy signals on the breakdown,

                                             
See how completed H/S pattern on May 5th, 2010
                                                          brought a mini-selling panic.  A Tiger S5 can be placed
                                                          on the screen here.  In our situation, a completed H/S
                                                          should probably be allowed to play out and reach
                                                          its downside objective, the height of the pattern extended
                                                          downward from the neckline at 17500. 

                                      

                                                          Watch The 4-Horsemen

                                       Our "four horsemen" of a possible world-wide Deflationary
                                       spiral are holding up.  That's good news for bulls.
                                       Only China as measured by YINN, the 3x-leveraged ETF,
                                       has broken down below its 65-dma.

                                       Our Commodities Index, Crude Oil and Foreign ETFs' Index
                                       are still above it.  (YINN represents the
performance of the FTSE
                                                 China 50 Index
).  I believe it is very important that these four
                                       investment vehicles do not all drop below their 65-dma.  If they
                                       do it will be a warning sign that low interest rates cannot prop
                                       the worlds' markets up outside of the US.  If all these start
                                       falling at once, we may find ourselves in a worse situation
                                       than we were in for much of last year because the pressures
                                       to raise rates will be greater.  The Fed has bought $4 trillion in
                                       f bonds and mortgages from banks.  Only bad things will happen
                                       to the market if it sells them and starts to tighten up its Open Market
                                       monetary actions.
   (
https://www.aei.org/publication/since-2009-feds-qe-purchases-transferred-almost-half-trillion-dollars-treasury-isnt-gigantic-wealth-transfer/ )


=================================================================

                 5-12-2016       The Peerless Sell S2 is bringing along a number of
                                       bearish-looking head and shoulders' tops to back it up.
                                       The DJI's top may take another week to fully develop
                                       so that the right shoulder's size and length match
                                       the left shoulder's.  We remain short DIA.



                              Watch to see if the following head/shoulders' necklines
                              are violated.

                                                       5/12 Close      Neckline
                                            DIA     177.42            175          (DJI-30)
                                            ERX    27.72              25.37       (Energy)
                                            IWM   110.37            109.1        (Russell-2000) 
                                            NVDA  35.59              34.51       (stock Nividia)
                                            OEX    915.96            905.25      (SP-100)
                                            OIH      27.32              26.4        (Oil)
                                            QQQ    105.89           104.54      (NASD-100)
                                            SLV       16.82            16.10       (Silver)
                                            SPY     206.56           204           (SP-500)

                                        Trouble seems to be looming. Today AAPL broke to a
                                        new 12-month low.  China's YINN has fallen 8 of the
                                        last 10 days.  The DJI's 10-day ma of Down Volume
                                        remains above Up Volume.  This is what happened
                                        last year before large DJI declines.

                                        Can low interest rates continue to boost enough defensive
                                        stocks to hold the market up?  How much more heavy
                                        lifting can AMZN and FB do?  Their respective PEs are
                                        296:1 and 93:1.  Professionals are starting to  have doubts.
                                        The Closing Power uptrends for DIA and SPY could
                                        soon be broken.  They have already been bearishly violated
                                        for QQQ and IWM



                                        Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 40% of the time over
                                        the next week.  Most likely, we will see the DJI penetrate
                                        is neckline support.  But given the good breadth and
                                        how positive the P-Indicator is, we will probably be
                                        get a Buy B9 soon afterward.  So, stay short DIA but
                                        hold the defensive ETFs and stocks suggested here
                                        as long as their Closing Powers are rising.

                                      
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                 DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                 Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                 Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                    Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                 Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver
                            

==========================================================================

                 5-11-2016       Sell S2.  What the bulls feared, today has transpired:
                                       the head/shoulders' patterns in the DJI and SP-500 are
                                       taking clearer shape.  If completed, look for the DJI
                                       to fall to 17000.
 
                                       Last night I wrote that "
we may have just seen the rally
                                       to right shoulder's apex in the SP-500 and DJIA.  
                                       In that case, the next few trading days may become
                                       the right shoulder in head/shoulders patterns for the
                                       DJI and SP-500." 

                                       The chief hope for the Bulls rests now on NY Professionals
                                       and their continued buying of enough dividend-paying and
                                       defensive stocks in DIA and SPY to keep these ETFs' Closing
                                       Powers rising. Speculative stocks in the NASDAQ are
                                       being avoided.  See how Tiger's NASDAQ's "NASDJI" indicator
                                       remains quite negative. 


                                      
                                      
Let's Watch 10-day ma of NYSE Up and Down Volume.

                                       The problem for the Bulls is that Down-day volume is growing. 
                                       If this continues another week, our Red 10-day ma of Down-
                                       Volume will be dominating our Blue 10-day ma of Up-Volume
                                       for about two weeks.  In this, it would then start to resemble
                                       the DJI's chart last year before two big sell-offs.



                                      
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                 DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                 Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                 Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                    Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                 Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
           QUICKSilver 

                                       The good news is that the DJI's neckline at 17500 has not been
                                       violated and breadth remains quite positive, showing that
                                       the many dividend-paying stocks and bond funds on the
                                       NYSE are holding up because the outlook for interest rates
                                       staying unchanged is still very good. 

                                      
Stay short DIA and hold your long positions provided that their
                                       rising Closing Powers are not violated.

                                     
                    
============================================================================


                
5-10-2016       Today brought the expected rally towards 18000 on
                                       the DJIA.  Professionals were proven correct and
                                       overseas' sellers wrong.  The Pros on Wall Street are
                                       usually proven right when the Opening Power goes in a
                                       different direction.

                                       It's also been hard to find very many good short sales among
                                       the
Bearish MINCPs . Our Stocks' Hotline remains long about
                                       twice as many
Bullish MAXCPs as we are short among
                                      
Bearish MINCPs. 

                                       Here I've suggested hedging the short on DIA with longs
                                       among the strongest military stocks, REITs and defensives. 
                                       Until the SPY and DIA show Closing power weakness enough
                                       to break their uptrends, this hedging will probably be continued here.



                                                 
Volume Seems Too Low for A Big Rally.

                                       NYSE daily Volume was lower than it should have been
                                       if we were about to start a big advance upwards. 10-day
                                       NYSE Down Volume is clearly above 10-day Up Vulume.
                                       Though NYSE breadth was quite positive today (+1639
                                       rise in A/D Line),  volume was much lower than bulls must
                                       have hoped for.  Disappointing, too, the number of NYSE
                                       new highs fell from 145 to 137. 

                                       More backing and filling is, therefore, likely.  Today we
                                       may have just seen the rally to right shoulder's apex in the
                                       SP-500 and DJIA.   In that case, the next few trading days may
                                       become the right shoulder in head/shoulders patterns for the
                                       DJI and SP-500. 

                                     
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                   Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
          QUICKSilver  



                                       

                                                      Hillary Support Is Weakening

                                       Hillary's big double-state defeats (West Va and Nebr.) must
                                       be un-nerving to the establishment Democrats who
                                       are counting on her to easily beat Trump for the Presidency.
                                       She has just about lost her national lead over him in the Polls.

                                       So, maybe, today's rally should be called the "Trump rally".
                                       If Trump really were to reduce the principal on the National
                                       Debt , as he has suggested, by bargaining with creditors, it
                                       would surely lead to printing a lot more money and big inflation. 
                                       Initially, that would cause a surge of buying durables, real estate,
                                       gold and collectibles before they rise too much in price.  But
                                       then eventually, it would cause much, much higher interest rates,
                                       as in the 1970s and early 1980s.  That would cause a market slump.

                                       My thinking is that Trump could end up being the next President,
                                       so we better start thinking about what that could mean.  For
                                       a start, it may well bring a lot more volatility to the market.
                                     

============================================================================

                
5-9-2016         With the Peerless S2 signal un-reversed, the
                                        potential head/shoulders patterns in the DJI and
                                        SP-500 present what seem the most likely
                                        scenarios, namely a brief rally and then a decline to
                                        1850 on the SP-500 and 17000 on the DJI.

                                        Here we assume that the right shoulder apexes are
                                        not surpassed for these indexes and that the next
                                        decline has enough downside volume to break the
                                        neckline supports.  While we wait to see if this
                                        mildly bearish scenario plays out, I have suggested
                                        buying some Reits, military stock leaders and
                                        the leveraged ETF for Real Estate, DRN as hedges
                                        against our shorts of DIA and some bearish MINCP
                                        stocks



                                        Note that a testing of the necklines could bring
                                        a reversing Buy B9 since the P-Indicator is
                                        likely still to be positive.  The DJI would need
                                        to close near 17500 for a Buy B9.

                                        In the meantime, we have low interest rates and
                                        a FED that clearly wants not to make the mistakes
                                        it made in mid-2008 when it was slow to shore
                                        up the Big Banks with "easier money" open market
                                        operations and a Discount Rate cut.  This year the
                                        FED wishes not to become part of the political campaign. 
                                        Their private independence might then be challenged.        

                                        As a result also of the weakening economic data,
                                        it does seem much less likely that the FED will jar the
                                        market.  So, buying the best performing REITs
                                        and defensive issues seems a good plan.

                                        Did you notice on the NYSE today, there were
                                        many more breakout new highs. In fact, there were
                                        145 new highs and only 14 new lows on the NYSE.  By
                                        contrast, the NASDAQ with its more speculative stocks
                                        failed to draw the same interest.  On the NASDAQ,
                                        new lows outnumbered new highs by 10.  So, this
                                        remains a very defensive market.  We can make money
                                        here by hedging long and short, MAXCPs versus MINCPs.



                                      
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                   Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
          QUICKSilver



==========================================================================

                
5-6-2016         Consider starting to hedge again by being long some of
                                       highest Accumulation military stocks and REITs, but
                                       remaining short the weakest of the BEARISH MINCP
                                       stocks.  This strategy often starts to work well in April
                                       and May until September.

                                       The operative Sell S2 must now face off against a probable
                                       rally in dividend paying stocks on the NYSE.  Interest
                                       rates should not be going up soon.  Friday's Jobs Report
                                       showed the US economy is sputtering. 7 of the last 9 Jobs'
                                       monthly reports showed a drop from 12 months before.
                                       Look at the bottom of today's Hotline and note how a pattern
                                       of monthly deterioration in the Jobs' numbers of 2007
                                       led to a severe bear market in 2008-2009  The FED has to be
                                       aware of this, one hopes.

                                       But there is job growth:  the numbers are positive even
                                       though they are not matching what is needed to keep up
                                       with the rising population.  The weakening economy helps
                                       explain why NASDAQ stocks, as a whole, are clearly
                                       the DJI.                                      

                                       Many defensive stocks remain in bull markets.  With Hillary
                                       ahead in the polls against Donald Trump, her past hawkishness
                                       is boosting Lockheed (LMT), Northrop (NOC) and LLL
                                       Trump's real-estate ties are aiding Real Estate trusts and DRN,
                                       today's  QuickSilver pick.



                                       May most often brings a shallow decline and a bottom later
                                       in the month, from which a nice advance then occurs.  That
                                       is clearly what Professionals are expecting.  See how the
                                       Closing Power for DIA and SPY made recovery highs on
                                       Friday.



                                       A recovery bounce is suggested by the technical position
                                       of quite a few of the ETFs.  But there is a danger that the DJI
                                       will only rally about a hundred more points and then
                                       come down hard.  That would set up a bearish-looking head
                                       and shoulders pattern.  If the 17500 neckline was then
                                       penetrated, a downside objective of 17000 could be
                                       calculated.  But this is complicated by the fact that the Peerless
                                       P-Indicator (the 21-day ma of Advances-Declines) remains
                                       positive.
                                      
                                      

                                     
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                                DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                                Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                   Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                                Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
          QUICKSilver

                                 
                                     Monthly US Jobs Reports
                                     
 red = declining from 12 months earlier
                                                              
blue = rising from 12 months earlier.

US Job Growth by Month
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 208(P) 160(P)                

 

 

 
                                            

===========================================================================

                
5-5-2016        Another weak and failed rally today.  At the close
                                      there were even 165 more down than up and the
                                      leading group, Utilities, was down.  The NYSE A/D Line
                                      finally broke ts uptrend. That leaves just Bonds as
                                      the leaders.  Not very impressive.  Fear about the Jobs'
                                      numbers tomorrow before the opening is making speculators
                                      timid.  So, our Peerless Sell S2 still operates.  I think
                                      we should stay short DIA.  Be careful about being fooled
                                      by the first, knee-jerk reaction to the Job's numbers.
                                      A dangerous right shoulder could be formed without
                                      Peerless giving a reversing Buy signal.                                      

                                      More and more technical damage is being done.  See how
                                      close to breaking their supports are the DJI and SP-500.
                                      By far, the bigger danger, however, would occur if
                                      they only briefly rally and then complete weak right shoulders
                                      which set up ugly head/shoulders, as shown below.

                                            Peerless Sell S2 and Bearish
                                           Head/Shoulders Rally Scenarios.





                                      Unless breadth turns very bad, there still a good chance
                                      we will get a Buy B9 if the DJI closes below 17500, 
                                      That would make technicals complicated and somewhat
                                      contradictory.  We will just have to wait to see what
                                      tomorrow brings.  Patience is also indicated by
                       .              bearish seasonality for the next two weeks of May.
                                      Since 1965, the DJI had risen just 46% of the time
|                                     over this period and shows an average decline of 0.4%
 
                                      There seems little reason to hurry to buy with each
                                      rally failing before even 18000 is reached. 


                                     
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                               DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                               Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                               Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                  Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                               Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
         QUICKSilver  

===========================================================================

                
5-4-2016        No buy signal today, but the DJI did close more than 1%
                                      below the 21-day ma with the P-Indicator and Accum. Index
                                      both positive.  This is constructive.  A close next below
                                      17502, 148 points below today's close, would bring a
                                      reversing Peerless Buy B9.

                                      Professionals figure that weakness in Europe and higher
                                      rates in the US will bring over hot international money
                                      to the US.  That, I think, is why the Closing Powers for
                                      DIA and SPY have not started downtrends, the NYSE
                                      A/D Line is still rising and the recent hourly DJI lows were
                                      not confirmed by the OBV Line.

                                      So, a bounce is indicated for tomorrow.  However, I suspect
                                      it will fail like others have in the last two weeks unless
                                      the Jobs' Report Friday morning produces another "Goldilocks"
                                      number. (One that is not too high, not too low and is
                                      just right, somewhere between 220,000 - 230,000, I reckon.)

                                     
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                               DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                               Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                               Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                  Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                               Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
         QUICKSilver  


                                      Will there be much of a rally?  Perhaps, 18000.  More than
                                      18000 seems unlikely.  Utilities are the primary leadership now. 
                                      Utility fans for this group doubt that the month of June
                                      will bring higher rates.  See some of their leaders in
                                      the charts of the
Bullish MAXCPs tonight.



                                      Overall,  the market remains very defensive. There is
                                      not enough head-room. So, speculators are showing
                                      caution and even timidity now. 

                                      How do we determine this?  The Peerless Relative
                                      Strength Indicator of the NASDAQ versus the DJI (NASDJI)
                                      is negative.  Biotechs have dropped below their 65-dma.
                                      Semi-conductors have broken down from their recent
                                      side-wise consolidation.  The Closing Powers for QQQ
                                      and IWM have had their up-trends decisively violated.
                                      Transports are not moving and the hot Mining group has
                                      turned down with a vengeance, all for fear international|
                                      rates will go higher soon if the Fed tightens. So, I have
                                      conclude that Speculators are simply too unwilling to take
                                      a chance that the Aprils' Jobs report will be too good and
                                      that will bring an interest rate hike and the market will slide
                                      back more.  Without more speculators, how high can the
                                      blue chips go in splendid isolation? 

                                      May generally remains a soft month.  After May 4th, the
                                      DJI has rallied only 40% of the time over the  next two weeks
                                      since 1965. A better buying opportunity will probably
                                      present itself.  Stay short DIA.  


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                
5-3-2016       The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S2.



                                     The NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend, but the
                                     chart above shows that is no longer true of all stocks. 
                                     Today's decline took the DJI 0.6% below its flat 21-day ma
.
                                     Price support is now at at 17617. The best support is at
                                     the lower 3.5% band and the rising 65-dma, around 17200.
                                     The DJI's Tiger Accumulation Index keeps falling, warning
                                     us not to trust rallies.  Big Money keeps using intra-day
                                     rallies to sell into.

                                     Stay short DIA.  The next two weeks are seasonally week. 
                                     Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 40% of the time over this
                                     period.  The average decline is small, only -4.0%.

                                     See how the Closing Power uptrends for QQQ, IWM, SOXL
                                     and TECL have been violated.  It's probably only a matter of time
                                     before the same thing occurs for DIA and SPY.  These bluer
                                     chip ETFs have not had Closing Power uptrend-breaks because
                                     of the pattern of selling overseas and lower openings, which are
                                     driven, I think, by the increased talk of rates being raised in the US.
                                     The European economic policy makers continue to believe
                                     that Government Austerity cures all economic ills. But they
                                     apparently do not appreciate how much of the cheaply borrowed money
                                     leaves the Continent of Europe and does not result in increased
                                     investment in Europe.
                                          (
Two Fed Officials Signal Markets May Be Wrong to Doubt June Hike
                                       and 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-wants-it-both-ways--so-we-re-going-to-call-her--hovish-144213542.html#  )



                                    
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                              DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                              Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                              Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                 Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                              Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
        QUICKSilver  

                                     The Fed is now talking about raising rates in June.  This
                                     will kill the benefits the Europe hoped to get from a 0%
                                     Discount Rate.  Hot international money usually goes to
                                     wherever it can get a higher rate.  Money will flow to the
                                     US and not be used to invest in a European recovery.
                                     This spills over to other economies, the biggest being China.

                                     We now see a bearish head/shoulders in VGK (European
                                     stocks). The Chinese ETF, YINN, could not get past
                                     its resistance at 15 and now seems destined to test its lows.
                                     The talk of a rise in rates in the US has also caused Gold stocks
                                     to fall back again today.   Because the FED does so much more
                                     talking about raising rates than actually  making that come to
                                     pass, I suspect that Gold stocks will probably hold up
                                     until rates are actually lifted.  Reflecting the Gold, Silver
                                     and Oil Price outlook, Latin American ETFs are now
                                     approaching their best near-term supports in the current uptrend. 

                                     Caution rules right now.  Traders want to see what the next
                                     Jobs Report numbers are.  A number for April above +250,000
                                     would almost certainly give the FED's hawks the excuse
                                     they need to raise rates, regardless of the consequences
                                     overseas.  

 

==============================================================================

               
5-2-2016       The operative Peerless signal still is considered
                                     a Sell S2.  The DJI is too near the 18000 resistance
                                     in a wide trading range with 16000 as the approximate
                                     bottom to safely buy.  But still the NYSE A/D Line is
                                     rising strongly as is the DIA's Closing Power.  These bullish
                                     attributes should prevent the DJI from declining below
                                     the 2.5% lower band this week.

                                     But keep in mind that the DJI still sports a bearish head/shoulders
                                     top and the huge advances in Gold Stocks are reminiscent
                                     of preludes to a number of significant market tops. Fortunately,
                                     May retreats back to the lower band often set up good places
                                     to go long again.  

                                    
Buying near the lower band late in May was consistently
                                     profitable until recently.  May declines turned into bear
                                     market sell-off in 2001, 2002 and 2008.  I found no fewer
                                     than 18 cases where May bottoms brought excellent trading
                                     rallies.  See charts.
 



                                  


                                      For now, lets do some watchful waiting this week. .
                                      The Jobs' numbers will be released before Friday's opening.
                                      Remember that "Good is Bad".  An estimated increase
                                      in April of more than 250,000 may be sufficient for the
                                      FED to justify a June rate hike.  Because, the pundits
                                      in the Financial Press will start talking about this, I
                                      thought it might help to be armed with the past numbers.

                                      US Dept of Labor's Monthly Job Gains in 1,000s

                                     
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 245(P) 215(P)                  
P : preliminary

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

 


                                           .       I Do Not Expect A. Rate Hike.

                                     The FED is acting like it is limited by what the European
                                     Central Bank is experimenting with.  Their 0% Discount
                                     Rate is meant to revive their stock markets.  Their people
                                     are told this "should" work to revive their sluggish economies,
                                     too.  But this is really the same "trickle-down" tripe the
                                     Fed served us with QE-2 and QE-3. Still, what choice do they have.
                                     Their politicians share the same automatic aversion to deliberate
                                     deficit spending on Public Works as most of the Congress does.
                                     Expect more "muddling through".  Meanwhile, Gold should
                                     keep rising. 


                                   
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                             DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                             Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                             Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                             Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
       QUICKSilver   

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


               4-29-2016       I take the operative Peerless signal to be a Sell S2.
                                     A brief DJI rally seems likely.  Friday, the DJI could not
                                     close decisively break its neckline.  The rising Closing Power of
                                     SPY has not yet been broken. QQQ has fallen to expected
                                     short-term support, its rising 65-dma.  But Gold's rise
                                     represents a grave danger to the EURO and the Dollar.
                                     If interest rates are not raised, Gold and its surrogates
                                     are likely to keep rising.  


                                    
                                     Stay short DIA and, for more aggressive longs, hold
                                     a mix of Gold, Silver, Oil Service Sectors and Emerging
                                     Market ETFs.  Watch GLD closely now.  Big bankers
                                     in the FED ultimately are loathe to allow its strength to
                                     showcase severe potential weakness in the Euro and Dollar.
                                     



                                    
                                     Gold has broken above the last resistance shown on
                                     its Daily Chart.  The weekly chart shows many points
                                     resistance.  The very number of them suggests sellers
                                     have no one place to concentrate their sell orders
                                     so as to better turn back Gold's rally.



                                         WEEKLY GLD CHART

 

                                   
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                             DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                             Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                             Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                             Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
       QUICKSilver   

                                    Gold and Silver Stocks explosion upwards is a result
                                    how very oversold they were and how the European
                                    Central Bank has declared it would keep its key
                                    Discount Rate for banks at 0%.  In theory, money
                                    supply should grow fast and there should soon be
                                    inflation.  In theory, the Euro will become super-
                                    plentiful.  With it declining, the expectation is that
                                    Gold will be the best safe haven.  Because it pays
                                    no dividend, any rise in European interest rates
                                    should cause it to decline.  But right now, as the
                                    hottest performing investment around, it is attracting
                                    thousands of speculators who are willing to bet that
                                    neither the European Central Bank or the FED will
                                    raise rates.  In the short-run, they will probably
                                    be right.  But in the long run, the big banks cannot
                                    allow their currencies to lose too much value relative
                                    to Gold.  At some point, US Treasuries would presumably
                                    even be dumped by the Chinese in favor of Gold.  
                                    This the FED cannot allow.
                     

     

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


              4-28-2016       I take the operative Peerless signal to be a Sell S2.
                                    DJI and SP-500 bulls must now fight off quickly appearing
                                    head/shoulders patterns.  Just because these are small
                                    patterns does not make them less significant.  The DJI's
                                    neckline at 17780 is important to watch now. This is
                                    50 points below the neckline support.   If that support
                                    does give way, way, I would expect the DJI next to decline
                                    to the support of its rising 65-dma.

                                    The DJI has slightly penetrated its 21-day ma.  With the
                                    current annualized rate of change of the 21-day ma now below
                                    +.07 and the current IP21 below +.07, this mvg.avg.
                                    will probably give way.  So, therefore, will the neckline
                                    at 17780.  (Key Values DJI Chart).

                                    We remain short DIA.  A retreat to the DJI's lower band
                                    near 17250 would then seem to be the most likely next
                                    scenario.  It is also possible that we will see a deeper
                                    decline, though still bounded by the broad trading range,
                                    15700-18000.  The best earlier examples of such
                                    broad trading ranges are those of  1956-1957, 1986 and 2000. 
                                    We will need to get another Peerless Buy signal to buy
                                    DIA.

                                                  
The Rise of Gold Stocks
                                               Is A General Market Warning,


                                    I am also concerned by how big advances in Gold
                                    and Gold stocks can cause the FED to tighten rates.
                                    Just before the October Crash of 1987 saw NEM,
                                    a key gold stock, rise 125% in 11 weeks,  It peaked
                                    on 9/15/1987. Two weeks later we got our most famous
                                    Sell S9.  Five weeks after the Sell S9, the DJI was
                                    down 33%.

                                         
 The "Nifty-35" May Be Topping Out,

                                    One of the reasons that the DJI is declining is the
                                    fear that tech stocks will start to break down following
                                    APPL's lead the last few days.  Now at 94.83, it is
                                    nearing important support at 93.

                                   
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                             DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                             Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                             Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                             Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
       QUICKSilver  

                                            
The New Boom in Gold/Silver Stocks

                                    Another reason for the recent decline in blue chips and
                                    many defensive stocks is that they've simply had very
                                    good runs and now it's simply time for some profit-taking.
                                    Some of that money is being shifted to the very hot
                                    gold and silver stocks. 

                                    As you know, mining stocks declined throughout 2012,
                                    2013, 2014 and 2015.  That's a long bear market by
                                    any measure.  Since the beginning of this year, they
                                    have been springing back, 

                                    With interest rates very low, the EURO and the Dollar
                                    look suspect to "Gold-Bugs".  The mining stocks' up-trends
                                    are outstanding.  High performance funds cannot ignore
                                    them.  It has been an across-the-board mining stock rally,
                                    but it is the smaller mining stocks that are now rising the
                                    most steeply. 

                                    Because of how far they came down, I believe that they
                                    could still rise a lot more before they reach significant
                                    and over-powering resistance.  See JNUG's weekly chart
                                    below.  This is the bullish leveraged ETF for smaller miners.
                                    It is now 152,   In theory, it may not face key resistance until
                                    it reaches 600!

 

                                            How Darvas Would Trade Them 

                                    In 2009 and 2010, many of the same stocks also made
                                    big advances.  But there is a big differences now.
                                    In the earlier period they rose more gradually, rising up
                                    and down from a steadily rising 65-day mvg.avgs.

                                    Here they are rocketing upwards.  Traders have to
                                    use the rising 5-day ma and 10-day ma as points to buy
                                    and they must also be prepared to buy the breakout-
                                    new highs.  Such breakout-buying is hard for most
                                    people.  But it must be used when extraordinarily
                                    bullish news has excited both big money and increasing
                                    numbers of speculators who do not want to be left out
                                    of the action.  Rallies like this seldom last longer than
                                    a year.  But they can be profitably traded. 

                                    This is the type of market favored by devotees of the
                                    box system of Nicolas Darvas.  As long as the floor of
                                    each higher price-box is not closed below, folks using
                                    the original Darvas system simply stay long after buying
                                    on a breakout. See the boxes in the Daily JNUG chart
                                    below.   
                                             (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolas_Darvas )

                                                             Daily JNUG

 
                                     


===========================================================================

              4-27-2016       We need to see if the DJI can get and stay above 18000
                                    before trusting yesterday's B15.  Breakout runs
                                    just do not seem to happen in April or May in a
                                    Presidential Election Year.  I would hold DIA short and
                                    trust the Sell S2 a little longer. I explained the reasoning
                                    for this in last night's Hotline.

                                   
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                             DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                             Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                             Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                             Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                             
       QUICKSilver    

                                    Hillary's victory over Sanders was expected.  So
                                    was today's Fed announcement that there would be
                                    no April Rate hike.  Taking profits in major market
                                    ETFs on this news was probably the right tactic for
                                    traders. 

                                   
 Overseas developments are taking all the world's
                                     market's down this morning.
  http://www.bloomberg.com/
                                     It's April.  That means it time for another round of
                                     the big austerity-obsessed European banks squaring off
                                     against the long-suffering Greek people.
                                                  
https://www.rt.com/business/341140-greece-imf-bailout-europe/  

                                                    
 Institutional Dumping 
                                         Multiple Tiger Sell S14s Are Mean and Ugly
                                     When Stock with S14s Break Support at 65-dma.


                             AAPL's awful earnings, Twitter's tanking and Chipotle's collapse
                             are warnings that US growth stocks could start to turn down badly. 
                             These stocks' sell-offs should limit the upside potential for TNA and
                             QQQ. If their recent lows do not hold, look for them and the key
                             ETFs to fall further. All three look like good short sales.
 



                                    
The Sudden Rise of The Fallen and Long Depressed

                                    With low interest rates in Europe gas come strength
                                    in Gold, Silver and South American ETFs like LBJ
                                    and BRZU.  The Oil and Gas service sector OIH, shows
                                    lots of Accumulation as it recovers.  So does the
                                    very depressed GASL.  Buying small positions in
                                    these on 10% declines from their peaks is a tactic
                                    that should continue to work so long as the European
                                    Discount rate is effectively zero percent.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              4-26-2016       I still take the operative Peerless signal to be a
                                    Sell S2 despite the Buy B15 that appeared today.
                                    Stay short DIA.  There is still a good chance that
                                    the recent neckline-support levels for the DJI, SP-500
                                    and QQQ will be broken.  If that occurs, I would think the
                                    DJI will have to test 17000 and its lower band.



                                    The Buy B15 occurs because the DJI had risen
                                    strongly and has not closed below its 21-day ma for
                                    more than 40 some days.   It has only occurred
                                    once in April and once in May.  Given the overhead
                                    resistance, let's hold off taking the Buy B15 for now. 
                                    We may well see more inconclusive backing and
                                    filling for the next month or two by the major
                                    averages.  Special situations and low-priced minerals'
                                    stocks are the only good offerings now for traders
                                    among stocks.  They may heat up more. 

                            
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                     DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                     Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                     Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
        Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                     Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
 
                            
QUICKSilver         



                            
The new B15's appearance is problematic mainly because
                                    of the amount of overhead resistance in the DJI and the
                                    bearish looking head and shoulders patterns that we
                                    see now in the QQQ, NASDAQ, OEX, SP-500
                                    and even the DJI.  AAPL reported poorer than
                                    expected earnings after the close today. Because
                                    of its huge size, a much lower opening by AAPL
                                    will almost certainly bring a test of these indexes
                                    necklines.  It will also mean the DJI will again test
                                    its rising 21-dma.  If these necklines are broken, I
                                    would think the DJI will have to test its lower
                                    band.



                                    T
here is another problem with today's Buy B15.
                                    Buy B15s seldom occur in April or May.  There has been
                                    only one B15 in April.  True, that brought a big gain in 1995 and 1996. 
                                    But it also occurred after the DJI had already made a very bullish
                                    flat topped breakout into all-time high territory.  The
                                    DJI is now 3% below such a breakout.  The overhead resistance needs
                                    to be eaten up before any April or May Buy B15.


                           
The single May B15, in 1999, did occur above resistance, but
                                    because of how late it occurred in the ordinarily bullish
                                    November-May period, it immediately brought a significant
                                    paper loss.  The DJI back fell to the lower band

                                    And there is one more problem with taking seriously this
                                    Buy B15 that we got today.  This problem arises from the
                                    market's typical behavior in a Presidential Election Year.
                                    Breakouts in April or May just do not go anywhere in
                                    these years.  One has to go back to the wild and highly
                                    speculative 1928 April and May breakouts to see them
                                    succeed.  Since then, any April or May breakouts have
                                    proven to be failures.


                           
 So, we need to be cautious about taking this Buy B15
                                    at present.  It could succeed, I surmise.  But that would
                                    require the FED to go along with the zero-Discount rate
                                    in Europe.  We need more evidence that this is what they
                                    will do.

                                    Let's watch to see how these head/shoulders patterns
                                    play out. At present, I would stay short DIA and avoid
                                    most long positions, except for some foreign ETFs and
                                    some of the strongest oil/gas stocks among the Bullish MAXCPs.
                                    If these head/shoulders patterns are completed, they
                                    should be treated as Tiger S5s.  If the DJI completes
                                    its head/shoulders, that, too will be a Tiger Sell S5.
                                   
                                    My thinking right now is simply to change Peerless 
                                    so that Buy B15s simply cannot occur in April or May
                                    in a Presidential Election Year.


                            
     The market is waiting.

                                    I think it is waiting to see what the European Central Bank
                                    and the Fed continue to do.   Until Professionals jump
                                    on the bearish side and DIA's Closing Power breaks its
                                    uptrend and the NYSE A/D Line breaks its steep uptrend,
                                    any decline will probably be limited.

                                    The outcome of US Presidential Primaries will probably be Hillary
                                    Clinton vs Donald Trump race.  If so, Wall Street looks to be safely
                                    in control for another four years.  That will work to hold
                                    the market up, too. Only a sudden rise in US interest rates would
                                    pose much risk to the market.  Because it's a Presidential Election
                                    Year and the FED remembers 2008, they will probably be very
                                    cautious and leave rates unchanged.

 

SP-500
QQQ

NASDAQ-100


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              4-26-2016       The operative signal remains a Peerless Sell S2.



                                    However,  short-term support is apparent.  The Closing Powers for DIA.
                                    SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends.  So is the NYSE A/D Line.
                                    Let's watch the QQQ now.  It could forming a little head/shoulders
                                    pattern. You may remember that we noticed a similar pattern
                                    in the Dow Jones Utilities as it tested its neckline similarly.
                                    It has not broken its support.  Fed watchers, apparently,
                                    have not decided whether there will be a June rate hike.




                                   
                                  

                                   Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                            DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                            Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                            Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
               Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                            Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
                                            QUICKSilver
    

                                              Professionals Have Insider Information on Rates.
                                              Watch Them Closely Now.

                                    A lot depends on whether the European Central Bank continues
                                    its very low rates.  If it does keep its Discount Rate at 0%, that
                                    will put pressure on the FED also to keep rates low.  To have
                                    them much higher would hurt the Euro and drain "Hot Money"
                                    away from Europe to the US just when they are seeking to
                                    encourage| new investments in Europe.  Would the US
                                    financially sabotage Europe?

                                    Assuming the FED chooses to go along with very low ECB
                                    rates, that should allow the DJI to move to a nominal new high
                                    despite the Peerless Sell.  A bigger rally would seem unlikely. 
                                    One has to go back to 1928 (when the boom became a bubble)
                                    to find a case where the DJI made a big move up from an April
                                    or May breakout in a Presidential Election year.

                                    One of the main reasons for monitoring what Professionals
                                    are doing is because they have contacts within not only the
                                    Fed but also the Bank of England, in Brussels and the European
                                    Central Bank. 

                                    One thing I've learned about predicting the stock market:
                                    more than any other factor, its Central bank changes of
                                    Discount Rates that hold the most sway over what the
                                    stock market does... unless (and this is important) there are
                                    extraordinary emotional forces at work at the same time.

                                                           An Untold Story about 1919

                                    As you all probably know, there was a famous Wall Street
                                    trader named in the 1920s named Jesse Livermore.  He made a
                                    colossal amount selling short just before the Crash in 1929.  What is
                                    not so well know is that he had spies within the Bank of England.
                                    Only a few days after the DJI peaked on September 3rd 1929,
                                    Livermore received a telegram that the Bank of England was about to
                                    raise its own Discount Rate from 5.5% to 6.5% in an effort to
                                    get British "hot money" to withdraw their funds from Wall Street
                                    before the cataclysm came. 

                                        "
On the morning of 4 September 1929, the New York hedge fund
                                                  operator Jesse Livermore received a message from a source in London
                                                  according to which a “high official” of the Bank of England – either Montagu
                                                  Norman or one of his minions – had told a luncheon group of City of London
                                                  men that “the American bubble has burst.” The same official was also quoted
                                                  as saying that Norman was looking for an excuse to raise the discount rate
                                                  before the end of the month..."
                                         (
http://tarpley.net/online-books/against-oligarchy/british-financial-warfare/  )




                                    The same author insists that it was always the intent of the Bank of England
                                    to restore the "City" of London (the financial community there) to its
                                    former position as the center of world Finance.  He presents evidence
                                    showing that the Bank of England was even hoping for a US Crash.

                                    Did they actually design their Rate Hike to do that?  Or
                                    was their move to a very deflationary 6.5% simply a response
                                    to the Fed's rate hike to 6% a month earlier?  The author claims that
                                    when JP Morgan heard of the actual B of E rate hike on September
                                    29th and, five days later, how the Labour Government's Chancellor
                                    of the Exchequer Phillip Snowden was calling the full one percent rate
                                    hike a necessary step to end the dangerous US stock market "orgy
                                    of speculation", he became enraged, feeling betrayed.  At that point he
                                    ordered going even more heavily short.                                   
                                    


                                     


============================================================================

              4-22-2016       Peerless now shows the operative signal to be a Sell S2.
                                    Lots of Indexes and Sectors appear to have reached resistance
                                    levels.  See for example the SP-500, QQQ and OEX.
                                    A pullback to re-group seems likely even though the NYSE
                                    A/D Line remains in a steep uptrend.  Professionals have
                                    not yet switched from net Bullish to net Bearish.  The DJI
                                    which is the first Index they jump on to attract buyers or
                                    sellers is still rising.  Until DIA's Closing Power uptrend is
                                    broken, there is still some chance that new lower interest
                                    rates will be unveiled to push the market higher.  The Federal
                                    Reserve may not want to risk another 10%-14% sell-off
                                    in this a Presidential Election Year.



 



                                  
Charts:   Peerless DJIA  Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                            DJI-Utilities   DJI-Rails   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                            Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                            Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                            Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
                                            QUICKSilver


                     
Medtronics (below) has been a 2-year base just below 80.  A
                           breakout over 80 would look especially appealing
                           as a place for chartists to buy.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             4-21-2016        Yesterday brought a reversing Sell S2 from
Peerless.
                                    The head/shoulders pattern of the DJ-Utilities worsened
                                    today.  Some 40 S&P-500 stocks now show completed
                                    head/shoulders patterns.

                                   
The Closing Powers for the key ETFs have not yet been
                                             broken.  Ordinarily, we would prefer to wait for these uptrendlines
                                             to be broken, before suggesting going short DIA.  But these
                                             Sell S2 signals are very reliable, especially when the
                                             DJI seems locked in a broad trading range in a Presidential
                                             Election Year.  So, I suggest going short DIA or some of the stocks
                                             showing completed head/shoulders patterns where the
                                             stock has also closed below its 65-dma.
                                            
See these SP-500 H/S stocks here.

                                   Charts:   Peerless DJIA   Hourly DJIA  DIA  SPY  QQQ  IWM 
                                            Crude Oil  SOXL  TECL
                                            Major Indexes and A/D Lines.  
                                             --->  http://tigersoft.com/MAJOR-INDEXES/INDEX.htm

                             
                Key Tiger Software ETF Charts
                                            Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs   
                                            QUICKSilver



                           
The German Finance Minister,
Schäuble, has come out strongly
                                    against the zero-interest rate policies of Mario Draghi, the head of the
                                    European Central Bank. The markets are interpreting the
                                    German bankers' opposition as being powerful enough to threaten
                                    any long-term "helicopter - free money" plan.
  
                              
http://www.politico.eu/article/3-messages-from-draghi-for-ecb-critics/




                           
This is a highly reliable Sell.  2/3 of the cases have
                                    occurred in a Presidential Election year.  The average
                                    decline by the DJI when reversed with a Peerless
                                    Buy is 7%.  The closest parallels to now among
                                    earlier S2 signals were those occurring in Presidential
                                    Election years and when the DJI was visibly locked
                                    in a broad trading range.  Those are the cases in
                                    1948, 1956, 2000 and 2004.

                       

                                            Trading Range Peerless Sell S2s
                                            in A Presidential Election Year, since 1928|
         PE = Presidential                 Gain if DJI Sold Short
         Election Year                     and this position was
                                           closed on next Peerless Buy.    
=========================================================================
19480615  PE  S2             193.2         .05     perfect 
19481022  PE  S2             189.8         .061    perfect

19560409  PE  S2             518.5         .079    perfect 
19560802  PE  S2             521           .075    perfect 
20000425  PE  S2             11124.82      .049    perfect
20000906  PE  S2             11310.64      .095    perfect
20001030  PE  S2             10835.77      .060    Very small Paper Loss 

20040902  PE  S2             10290.28      .038    Very small Paper Loss  
------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                           Avg = 7.2%  


================================================================================



            4-20-2016         Today brought a reversing Sell S2 from Peerless.
                                    This is a highly reliable Sell.  2/3 of the cases have
                                    occurred in a Presidential Election year.  The average
                                    decline by the DJI when reversed with a Peerless
                                    Buy is 7%. See the list of S2s further below.  S2s
                                    are based on the DJI approaching the upper band
                                    in certain months in the 4-year Presidential cycle
                                    with significantly weakening internals.





                                    
While our internals now are not negative, the DJ Utilities                                    
quickly completed a bearish-looking head and shoulders                                    
today.  Fear must be returning that the FED will raise rates                                    
in June.  See these charts further below.





                                   

                                            QUICKSilver

                                           Just by looking at the DJI, it is not clear that it will immediately 
                                           fall back.  But it did close 2.1% above the 21-day ma and
                                           is in the zone of resistance from the highs of last Summer.
                                           Today the NYSE A/D Line has made another new high 
                                           far ahead of the DJI,  The DIA's Closing Power is still
                                           rising.  Conclusion: I would take some profits in general 
                                  market ETFs. But let's wait until the DIA's Closing Power 
                                           breaks its uptrend before selling short DIA.
 
                                   Peerless Sell S2s since 1928|
         PE = Presidential                 Gain if DJI Sold Short
         Election Year                     and this position was
                                           closed on next Peerless Buy.    
=========================================================================
19321111  PE  S2             68.0          .135    perfect
19350909      S2             132.5         .033    Very small Paper Loss  
19430920      S2             141.8         .071    perfect
19480615  PE  S2             193.2         .05     perfect 
19481022  PE  S2             189.8         .061    perfect
19560409  PE  S2             518.5         .079    perfect 
19560802  PE  S2             521           .075    perfect 
19600614  PE  S2             654.8         .058    perfect
19670918      S2             938.74        .084 
19710907      S2             938.74        .103 
20000425  PE  S2             11124.82      .049   perfect
20000906  PE  S2             11310.64      .095   perfect
20001030  PE  S2             10835.77      .060   Very small Paper Loss  
20040902  PE  S2             10290.28      .038   Very small Paper Loss  
20070919      S2             13815.56      .062

20160520  PE  S2             18096.27      ----
------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Avg = 7%

                             
 

                                        DJI Utilities have completed a bearish Head/Shoulders.
                                         Fears shot up today that rates would be rising soon.
                  

           Utilities' Head/Shoulders since 1997
                What is Significance for DJI?

                        Bearish 8 of 9 times.

    Feb 2001 DJI fell a long ways.
    May 2002  After quick rebound, DJI fell a long ways
    July 2008 DJI fell a very long ways.
    May 2011  After a month-long rebound DJI fell significantly.
    August 2012  DJI rebounded for 2 months and then fell sharply.
    November 2012 DJI fell significantly
    May 2013 Minor DJI decline followed.
    August 2013 Minor DJI decline followed.
    May 2014  Brief decline only to 65-dma and then rally..


===========================================================================

           4-19-2016        
The operative Peerless signal remains a Buy B19.
                                   The NYSE A/D Line has made another new high far ahead
                                   of the DJI,  So has DIA's Closing Power.

                                  
Yesterday, I highlighted the bullishness of 0% interest rates
                                            offered by European banks for what could be a good long
                                            while.  Let me ask, what's to deny US banks borrowing
                                            from European banks for a small amount more?  And what
                                            now prevents US banks from using this money to either buy
                                            stocks themselves or from making margin loans to their best
                                            customers at very low rates to buy stocks?  If the answer
                                            is very little, then 0% European rates are much like a cut in the
                                            US Discount Rate.

                                            What has happened in the past when the FED cut the Discount
                                            Rate in a Bull Market?  With three exceptions, the market
                                            has always gone up to new highs.  Sometimes, it went much higher. 


                                  
Recently I have underscored the bullish outcome for two years
                                            of the Discount Rate cuts in July and August 1927, when the
                                            DJI was also close to making an all-time high.  But there
                                            are many other instances where the DJI danced higher to
                                            the tune of a Discount Rate cut in an on-going bull market.
                                            The pattern's bullishness is difficult not to appreciate when we
                                            see what happened in the past when the FED was very generous
                                            with funds in an extant bull market.

                                   http://tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/8-18-2003/index.htm
                                     
May 1954 - bull market lasted until 1957.
                                               April 7, 1967 - bull market until 10% correction after Sept. peak.
                                              
August 3, 1968 - DJI only tested over-head resistance in December.
                                               May 16, 1975 - more new highs for two more months.
                                               Jan 19, 1976  - big January take-off and rally until Summer.
                                              
November 1976 -  DJI only tested over-head resistance
                                               July 28, 1980 - DJI peaked with Election of Reagan.
                                               May 24, 1985 - DJI rallied strongly for another year.
                                               March 7, 1986 - DJI rallied to new highs for another 3 months.
                                              
April 30, 1991  - DJI rallied until January 1994 intermediate-term peak                              
                                               September 13, 1991  -
DJI rallied until January 1994 peak                                    
                                               November 6, 1991 -
DJI rallied until January 1994 peak                                      
                                               December 20, 1991 -
DJI rallied until January 1994 peak                                    
                                               April  2, 1992 - DJI rallied until January 1994 peak.
                                               January 31, 1996 - Powerful bull market.
                                               November 1998 - DJI rallied until Summer of 1999.
                                              
Sept 18, 2007 - DJI kept falling

                                     

                                        QUICKSilver
   



                                     
The Four Horsemen of The New Inflation

                                     
With EUROs now borrow-able very cheaply, Gold
                                                and Silver are rising very fast.  Perhaps, much too
                                                powerfully, if the US Fed decides to break away from
                                                its own cheap money policies. 
For now, the rush into
                                                mining stocks is the hottest game in town.
  Until we
                                                see clear signs of Professional Selling, continue to be
                                                represented in this group, as well as Foreign ETFs,
                                                especially LBJ and BRZUOil and Gas Stocks have
                                                also turned around.  Look at the recent jump in
                                                Commodities generally.  All we need now for a
                                                complete reversal from our four Horsemen, will
                                                be for YINN to get up past $16, its overhead resistance,
                                                just a few pennies higher.
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