Correcion, Deeper Decline of Bear Market

Correction, Deeper Decline
or Bear Market?

Outcomes of DJI Declines of More than 10% since 1945
(C) 2016  William Schmidt, Ph.D.

It is a gamble to call a decline of 10%-15% a bottom
especially when Peerless has not yet given a Buy.  
A rally to the upper 3.5% band only occurred in 17 or 50%
of the cases when DJI was down 10% to 15%.

Keep in mind for a 10%-13.5% corrections, that 
in 5 of the 16 cases the DJI was only making a temporary
bottom and that in  4 cases a Decline of 15.1%-19.9%
followed while in 1 cases a Bear Market then ensued.

Total  34 Cases

     8 cases of 10%-11% CORRECTION
     8 cases of 11%-13.5% CORRECTION
       -------------------------------------
       16 cases - 47%

     1 cases of 13.6%-15% DEEP CORRECTION  
     11 cases of 15.1%-19.9% DECLINE (32.3%)
     6 cases of >20% DECLINE  (17.6%)

    Top                Bottom             Outcome

1)  5/23/1946  212.5   10/30/1946 164.1   23% Decline

2)  6/14/1948  192.9   6/13/1949  161.6   16.2% Decline

3)  6/12/1950  228.4   7/13/1950  197.5   13.5% Correction

4)  1/5/1953   293.8   9/14/1953          13.0% Correction

5)  4/6/1956   521.1   5/28/1956  468.8   10.1% Correction

6)  8/2/1956   521.0   11/28/1956 466.1   10.5% Correction

7)  7/12/1957  520.8   10/22/1957 419.8   19.5% Decline

8)  1/5/1960   685.5   3/8/1960   599.1   12.5% Correction   
               Rally to upper band and then deeper decline.  DD

9)  1/3/1962   726.0   6/27/1962  536.9   26% Bear Market

10) 5/13/1965  938.9   6/28/1965  1406.00  10.5% Correction

11) 2/9/1966   995.15  10/7/1966  744.52  25% Bear Market

12) 9/25/1967  943.08  11/8/1967  849.57  10.0% Correction
               Rally to upper band and then deeper decline.  DD

13) 5/14/1969  968.85  7/29/1969  801.96  17% Decline
               Rally to upper band and then bear market.

14) 4/28/1971  950.82  8/10/1971  839.59  11.5% Decline.
               Rally to upper band and deeper decline.       DD

15) 1/11/1973 1051.7   8/22/1973  851.9  17.0% Decline.
               Rally to upper band and then bear market.

16) 7/15/1975  881.81  10/1/1975  784.16  11.0% Correction

17) 12/31/1976 1004.65 10/25/1977 801.54  20.0% Correction
               Rally to upper band and then deeper bear market.

18) 9/11/1978  907.74  11/15/1978  785.6  13.5% Correction

19) 10/5/1979  897.61  11/7/1979   796.67 11.5% Correction

20) 2/13/1980  903.84  4/21/1980   759.13 17.0% Decline.

21) 4/27/1981 1024.05  9/25/1981  824.01  19.2% Decline.
               Rally to upper band and then deeper bear market.

22) 1/9/1984 1024.05  6/15/1984  1086.90  15.5% Decline.

23) 8/25/1987 2722.02 10/19/1987  1738.74   36.4% Bear Market

24) 7/17/1990 2999.75  10/11/90  2365.10   21.0%  Bear Market

25) 8/5/1997 8259.31  10/27/1997 7161.15  12.0% Correction

26) 7/17/1998 9337.97 8/31/1998 7539.07  19.5% Decline

27) 8/25/1999 1132.63 10/15/1999 100019.71 11.5% Correction

28) 1/4/2000 11728.99  3/7/2000 9796.03  16.5% Decline

29) 9/6/2000  11310.64  10/18/2000  9975.32 12% Correction 
               Rally to upper band and then deeper Decline.    DD

30) 5/21/2001 11337.92  9/21/2001  8235.51   27.0% Bear Market.

31) 10/9/2007 14164.53 11/26/2007 12743.44 10.0% Correction
                Rally to upper band and then much deeper bear market.  DBM

32) 4/26/2010 11205.03 7/2/2010 9686.48   13.5% Correction

33) 5/3/2011  12807.51  10/3/2011  10655.30  16.6% Decline

34) 5/19/2015  18312.39  8/25/2016  15666.44  13.7% Correction.

35) 11/3/2015  17913.15  1/15/2016  15988.08  10.7% Correction (to date.)