Bottoms when Decline Occurs in First Quarter
of A Presidential Election Year.

In Januaries - 2
In Februaries - 3 of 4 after 19th. Only one earlier, Febr. 10th, 1932
In March - 5
In April - 1
In May - 3
In June - 0
In July  - 1

           Bottom    Election Year Political Uncertainty

1916    July                 Will President Wilson stick with profitable neutrality and keep US out of the great War?
1920    Feb 26            Brief rally and then Bear Market.
1924    May 1920
1928    Feb 28.           Profit-taking in Bull Market.
1932    Feb 10.           Brief rally and then Bear Market.
1936    ... up quarter
1940    ... up quarter
1944    ... up quarter
1948    March 16.       Can Truman be beat?
1952    May 1             Who will nominees be and Korean War...
1956     Jan. 23
1960     March 8         Who will Democrats nominate against Nixon?
1964    ... up quarter
1968    March 21
1972    ... up quarter
1976    ... up quarter
1980    April 21          Who will Republicans nominate against Carter?
1984    Feb. 23          Who will Democrats nominate against Reagan?  
1988    Jan. 20
1992    ... up quarter
1996    ... up quarter
2000    March 7
2004    May 17
2008    March 10
2012    ... up quarter
2016    ?

Recent Examples of Nominal DJI Closings with
Multiple Non-Confirmations.

 2008, 2010

What happens when DJI falls to between 2.3% and 3.5% lower band
with IP21 > .07 and P-I has risen 30% of way back to 0 or higher
from its level 10 days ago?

Since 1928, there have been 16 earlier cases than the one on 2/11/2016.
Of these 7 brought declines of more than 4% before there was a gain of
4%.  These losing cases were:

7/17/1931   142.6  DJI rallied only to 21-dma and then resumed bear market.
11/16/1937  127.9 DJI immediately fell to 113.6 thus continuing bear market.
2/19/1946    196.1 DJI immediately fell 186.0  (Bull Market)
11/19/1948  177.0 DJI zig-zagged down to 161.6. (Intermediate Decline.)
10/17/1955   458.2 DJI immediately fell to 438.6.   (Intermediate Decline.)
9/3/1987       2500.49 DJI immediately fell 4.1% to 2492.82, rallied quickly to 2640.99, then plunged in bear mkt.
9/6/2002     8427.2 DJI immediately fell to 7286.27 us continuing bear market.

When DJI was in an intermediate correction, like now and down 8% to 14%
from its highs, it rallied 4% or more before it fell by as much in 2 of the 6 cases.
But in two more cases, it was only a few months from starting a bear market.

7/17/1931   142.6  DJI rallied only to 21-dma and then resumed bear market.
11/19/1948  177.0 DJI zig-zagged down to 161.6.
10/17/1955   458.2 DJI immediately fell to 438.6.
2/20/1969     916.65 DJI fell to 899.8 and then rallied to 968.85 and then began deep bear market.
1/22/1981     940.44 DJI fell to 932.25 and then rallied to 1024.05 and then began bear market.
8/20/2011    10213.62 DJI fell to 9985.81 and then rallied to 11434.84.

When we look at the  3 earlier cases where the DJI down 7% to 14% over the last 65 trading days
we see that in all cases three cases the DJIt fell 4% before it rose 4%.  A bear market either
resumed or soon began.

7/17/1931   142.6  DJI rallied only to 21-dma and then resumed bear market.
9/3/1987      2500.49 DJI immediately fell 4.1% to 2492.82, rallied quickly to 2640.99, then plunged in bear mkt.
9/6/2002     8427.2 DJI immediately fell to 7286.27 us continuing bear market.