Earlier Hotlines
www.tigersoft.com/H77LION/INDEX.htm
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PREINDEX.html
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Hotlines: 2/4/2017 - 2/15/2017
These have somehow become corrupted. Some graphs may be missing.
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HELP
A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
-----> More HELP LINKS
Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016 ---> Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016 ---> High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 ---> Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016 ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016 ---> Killer Short Selling Techniques: ===> Order Here ($42.50)
It's As Easy as 1,2,3
TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling... Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
Earlier Q-Answers
QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
Our Different Signals
Better understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
New TigerPeerless Installation and Basic Uses' Instruction (11/25/2016)
See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells.
A few more pages will be added. But users could print this
main Installation and Uses' Page for reference.
Study- Trading SPY WITHOUT Peerless - Some Guidelines.
When completed this will be a new Tiger Trading E-Book.
Study- Examples of "Hands above the Head" top patterns.
Study- 9/3/2017 TigerSoft (not Peerless) charts of Major Tops as they occurred.
===> Please report any broken or out-of-date links. william_schmidt@hotmail.com
=========================================================================
Happy Thanksgiving!
Note: There will be no Hotline Thursday night unless something
unexpected happens tomorrow and
the Hotline address will be changed this Sunday night. Look for an
Email Friday or Saturday from giving the new address.
========================================================================= .
11/21/2017 The Peerless signal remains the very bullish September Buy B21. If history
repeats the DJI will not get a Peerless Sell signal until 26,000 is reached in the
Spring of 2018. That would mean there is another 10% left to the upside.
So, as we give "Thanks" this week for what the stock market has yielded us,
it may be well to realize, believe it or not, that there is still more "gravy" ahead.
Resistances from Recent Highs were reached today.
Expect Breakouts above Flat Resistance Levels Reached Today.
Consider the underlying technicals now. There were 500+ new highs among NYSE and
NASDAQ stocks. So, the advance is broadening again, not narrowing.
IWM and MDY lept to new highs today. They are joining the tech ETFs, SOXL and
TECL ETFs and stocks, which have been the leaders for months.
Sometimes, there is a bit of indigestion next week. But with the NYSE A/D Line and the
DJI so close to new 12-month highs, I would not count on another pullback. New highs
here will probably set off a new surge of Buying. See the Hourly DJI chart below.
While, it's true that Biotechs are not participating and RETL's recovery got stalled
today, we should be buoyed that the potential head/shoulders patterns I mentioned
yesterday are being destroyed and Gold is still not yet rallying to tell us the advance
is getting dangerous.
As for our former Bearish MINCP shorts, a good many of them have recently
broken their Closing Power downtrends and now the number of MINCPs is
down 150 stocks from its level three weeks ago on November 21st. The most
bearish looking ETFs now are the negative ETFs. Even the normally bearish
Day Traders have turned net bullish today. See Table 2.
All things considered, this is a not a market to Sell yet. The bullish month of December is
just ahead. At the very least, we should not sell until there has been a climactic
advance up to the DJI's 3.0% upper band spurred on, perhaps, by Trump's tax cut
finally getting passed by the US Senate.
For now, owning the leading ETFs, as generally suggested by the Power Rank position
of their representatives among the Leveraged ETFs has to be advised. Look at how
very high are their IP21 and AI/200 (positive consistency for Accumulation) are.
Most "Bullish" Power Ranked ETFs in "LEVERAGE" Group
IP21 AI/200 CP-position
from 65-day low
high.
#1 TECL - ProShares Ultra Technology (3x) .407 196 100%
#2 TQQQ - ProShares UltraPro QQQ .423 193 100%
#3 SOXL - Semiconductors (3x) .452 184 100%
#4 QLD - Ultra QQQ .404 191 100%
Charts 11/21/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN New - SPPI (small Biotech)
11/21/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/21/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 235.73 1.58 232.96 31% Bullish BLUE .132 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6862.48 71.77 6706.21 92.1% Bullish BLUE .383 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 259.99 1.69 256.44 43.8% Bullish BLUE .299 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 155.5 1.67 152.59 71.3% Bullish BLUE .393 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 338.41 2.15 330.87 89.9% Bullish BLUE .342 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.09 1.56 145.63 165.4% Bullish BLUE .201 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.85 .83 59.34 103.1% Bullish BLUE .129 .115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.2 -1.14 24.97 624.9% ---- RED .178 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 170.16 5.89 153.87 380.2% Bullish BLUE .453 .614 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 113.86 3.37 106.94 202.7% Bullish BLUE .408 .222 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 310.71 2.38 306.25 91.8% Bearish BLUE -.02 -.138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.08 .08 5.86 151.7% Bullish BLUE .272 .144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.03 .02 23.93 -60.3% ---- RED .178 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.63 -.12 21.36 -64.2% ---- RED .278 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.75 .52 31.24 25.6% Bullish BLUE .388 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.43 -.03 24.38 8.2% Bearish ---- .004 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.03 .02 W106.31 4.7% Bearish RED -.045 -.081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.98 -.03 16.81 59.3% Bearish ---- -.175 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.2 .04 6.2 -40.3% Bullish BLUE .086 -.115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.55 2.83 32.4 583.8% Bullish BLUE .064 .187 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.17 .34 W21.38 87.5% Bearish BLUE -.129 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 173.14 3.16 169.08 52.8% Bullish BLUE .232 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1034.49 16.11 1020.91 41.5% Bullish BLUE .056 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.72 1.19 82.98 -19.9% ---- BLUE -.033 .056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1139.49 13.18 1126.69 11.7% Bullish BLUE .31 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 181.86 3.12 177.95 106.1% Bullish BLUE .281 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 216.05 1.97 209.98 44.1% ---- BLUE .219 .209 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 266.99 2.36 262.86 99.4% Bullish BLUE .008 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 238.02 -.11 237.61 16.4% Bearish RED -.05 -.011
Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/21 11/20 11/17 11/16 11/15 11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2
NEWHIGHS 615 363 244 273 71 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334
NEWLOWS 62 50 229 150 111 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 406 339 295 321 154 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113
MINCPs 63 52 40 74 105 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 196 172 169 154 89 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69
TTTNLs 186 184 79 78 211 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 245 189 158 148 121 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196
FASTDOWN 72 100 136 177 253 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171121 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 10 59 % NIFTY-30 30 10 33 % JETS 9 3 33 % CHINA 64 20 31 % INDEXES 195 57 29 % ELECTRON 179 46 26 % SEMI 131 31 24 % ETFS 65 14 22 % COMPUTER 23 5 22 % GAMING 28 6 21 % MORNSTAR 238 51 21 % SOFTWARE 66 14 21 % HACKERS 25 5 20 % BIGMIL 6 1 17 % NASD-100 88 15 17 % DJI-13 13 2 15 % RUS-1000 840 124 15 % -------------------------------------------------------- CHEM 65 9 14 % SOLAR 21 3 14 % REIT 179 25 14 % MILITARY 38 5 13 % INSURANC 32 4 13 % GREEN 31 3 10 % DOWJONES 30 3 10 % SP500 486 47 10 % SP-100 96 9 9 % FINANCE 92 7 8 % INDMATER 91 7 8 % BIOTECH 385 30 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % FOOD 15 1 7 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % OILGAS 144 6 4 % AUTO 40 1 3 % COMODITY 71 1 1 % BONDFUND 112 1 1 % None: BIGBANKS REGBANKS INFRA COAL GOLD EDU PIPELINE HOSPITALTable 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/21/17Bullish = 38 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 .857 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 .941 DJI-13 .923 .846 .846 .923 .923 1 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 BIGMIL .833 .5 .5 .833 .666 .833 NIFTY .833 .866 .866 .866 .833 .833 SEMI .816 .816 .786 .755 .74 .77 CHEM .784 .753 .707 .692 .615 .661 FINANCE .782 .782 .695 .684 .63 .673 ELECTRON .776 .776 .743 .72 .675 .703 DOWJONES .766 .733 .733 .8 .8 .833 SOLAR .761 .761 .761 .714 .761 .809 REGBANKS .757 .757 .696 .696 .666 .666 CHINA .75 .718 .703 .703 .687 .687 INFRA .727 .727 .727 .727 .636 .727 MORNSTAR .726 .697 .689 .684 .588 .634 HACKERS .72 .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 ETFS .707 .538 .569 .553 .43 .538 UTILITY .697 .651 .627 .697 .651 .744 MILITARY .684 .657 .631 .631 .578 .631 GAMING .678 .714 .678 .678 .642 .678 GREEN .677 .645 .645 .58 .548 .645 NASD-100 .67 .659 .67 .67 .647 .659 SP500 .67 .664 .654 .666 .617 .668 JETS .666 .666 .666 .777 .444 .444 SOFTWARE .666 .651 .606 .636 .575 .59 RUS-1000 .657 .64 .638 .647 .596 .634 COMPUTER .652 .739 .608 .565 .478 .478 INDEXES .646 .651 .682 .676 .615 .656 SP-100 .635 .593 .593 .645 .614 .677 AUTO .625 .625 .55 .6 .55 .575 INSURANC .625 .687 .656 .687 .687 .75 INDMATER .604 .582 .538 .516 .494 .527 REIT .603 .525 .519 .553 .474 .564 FOOD .6 .533 .6 .466 .466 .533 COMODITY .549 .521 .619 .464 .464 .492 OILGAS .52 .52 .569 .555 .576 .638 RETAIL .509 .622 .584 .49 .415 .415 N=38 =========================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .5 .45 .5 .5 .5 COAL .5 .625 .625 .5 .5 .625 =========================================================================================== BIOTECH .451 .425 .438 .418 .376 .371 TRANSP .45 .35 .3 .55 .25 .35 GOLD .204 .224 .306 .183 .163 .224 BONDFUND .16 .098 .151 .125 .178 .098 PIPELINE .142 0 0 0 0 0 HOSPITAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=6
================================================================================
================================================================================
11/20/2017 Our official Peerless signal remains the very bullish September Buy B21.
Monday was impressive. At one point, the weekend Futures were down 100 points.
The rally shows Professionals are quite bullish. The ETFs' Closing Power uptrends
all got lifts. All except Biotechs, that is.
The New Leaders - Retailers - 5dma AROC +892%
The typical Thanksgiving rally seems to have started. If it it can continue, we
could see a really nice December rally, too You have to like the way the beaten-down
Retailers have quickly moved higher, ever since Walmart's big jump and RETL
got back above its 65-dma. Shorts have suddenly become very nervous. The number
of new lows and MINCPs, shown in Table 2, has shrunk way down from three
weeks ago. This has to be bullish. See also the renewed interest in the smaller stocks,
as represented by IWM.
Now if only the Biotechs will stop falling, we could see a really nice December rally
in the NASDAQ, too The profit-taking in SOXL and TECL has been well-absorbed.
Both show across-the-board Bullish Blue QuickSilver values in Table 1.
But first before there can be a real lift-off, at least some of the bearish-looking
head and shoulders patterns shown below will need to be voided by having the apexes
of their right shoulders be convincingly exceeded.
Another Hundred-Point Hourly DJI Rally
Will Give The Market A Big Boost.
Charts 11/20/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN New - SPPI (small Biotech)
11/20/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/20/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.15 .76 W234.28 -10.9% ---- BLUE .075 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6790.71 7.92 6737.87 24.5% Bullish BLUE .306 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.3 .44 257.73 -.6% Bullish BLUE .22 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.83 -.12 153.31 -1.3% Bullish RED .322 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 336.26 1.19 332.41 51% Bullish BLUE .278 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.53 1.08 146.21 99.4% Bullish BLUE .149 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.02 .59 59.62 36.1% Bullish BLUE .065 .126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.34 .9 24.85 892.6% ---- BLUE .268 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 164.27 5.6 158.06 182.6% Bullish BLUE .412 .582 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.49 1.1 109.42 15.1% Bullish BLUE .347 .199 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 308.33 -2.88 305.05 -28.3% Bearish RED -.062 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6 -.05 5.9 -75.6% Bullish ---- .26 .142 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.01 -.13 W24.32 -267.5% ---- RED .157 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.75 -.74 W21.91 -647.6% Bullish BLUE .252 .246 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.23 -.19 W31.59 -146.3% Bullish BLUE .34 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.46 .12 24.39 -20.5% Bearish BLUE -.025 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.01 -.17 105.93 10.8% ---- ---- -.037 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.01 .04 16.78 14.8% Bearish BLUE -.106 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.16 -.07 W6.25 -56.3% Bullish ---- .172 -.103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.72 1 33.61 -13.3% ---- BLUE .024 .088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.83 -.1 21.79 -87.2% Bearish BLUE -.171 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 169.98 -.17 W171.34 -116.6% Bullish RED .194 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1018.38 -.71 W1026 -36% Bullish RED -.019 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 82.53 .13 W84.05 -84% Bearish BLUE -.099 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1126.31 -3.57 W1136.84 -12.6% Bullish RED .25 .091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.74 -.26 178.07 -.8% Bullish RED .202 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 214.08 2.72 W214.18 34.2% ---- BLUE .181 .206 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 264.63 2.37 261.76 42.1% Bullish BLUE -.074 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 238.13 .11 237.24 -44.9% ---- RED -.052 .017Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/20 11/17 11/16 11/15 11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1
NEWHIGHS 363 244 273 71 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272
NEWLOWS 50 229 150 111 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 339 295 321 154 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64
MINCPs 52 40 74 105 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 172 169 154 89 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43
TTTNLs 184 79 78 211 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 189 158 148 121 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178
FASTDOWN 100 136 177 253 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185Table 2 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171120 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 7 41 % JETS 9 3 33 % CHINA 64 16 25 % GAMING 28 6 21 % ELECTRON 179 34 19 % SEMI 131 22 17 % COMPUTER 23 4 17 % HACKERS 25 4 16 % RETAIL 53 8 15 % =================================================================== INDEXES 195 28 14 % SOLAR 21 3 14 % NIFTY 30 4 13 % MORNSTAR 238 30 13 % NASD-100 88 11 13 % SOFTWARE 66 8 12 % ETFS 65 7 11 % SP500 486 47 10 % RUS-1000 840 81 10 % CHEM 65 5 8 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % MILITARY 38 3 8 % DOWJONES 30 2 7 % INDMATER 91 6 7 % GREEN 31 2 6 % INSURANC 32 2 6 % FINANCE 92 5 5 % BIOTECH 386 20 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % SP-100 96 4 4 % REIT 179 7 4 % AUTO 39 1 3 % OILGAS 144 3 2 % ------------------------------------------------------------ None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL REGBANKS INFRA COAL GOLD EDU UTILITY PIPELINE COMODITY FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/20/17 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% .857 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .941 .882 NIFTY .866 .866 .866 .833 .833 .833 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 DJI-13 .846 .846 .923 .923 1 1 SEMI .816 .786 .755 .74 .77 .77 N=6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCE .782 .695 .684 .63 .673 .663 ELECTRON .776 .743 .72 .675 .703 .703 SOLAR .761 .761 .714 .761 .809 .809 REGBANKS .757 .696 .696 .666 .666 .575 CHEM .753 .707 .692 .615 .661 .676 COMPUTER .739 .608 .565 .478 .478 .478 DOWJONES .733 .733 .8 .8 .833 .866 INFRA .727 .727 .727 .636 .727 .727 CHINA .718 .703 .703 .687 .687 .703 GAMING .714 .678 .678 .642 .678 .642 MORNSTAR .697 .689 .684 .588 .634 .659 INSURANC .687 .656 .687 .687 .75 .781 N=12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ JETS .666 .666 .777 .444 .444 .222 SP500 .664 .654 .666 .617 .668 .664 NASD-100 .659 .67 .67 .647 .659 .67 MILITARY .657 .631 .631 .578 .631 .631 INDEXES .651 .682 .676 .615 .656 .687 SOFTWARE .651 .606 .636 .575 .59 .606 UTILITY .651 .627 .697 .651 .744 .697 GREEN .645 .645 .58 .548 .645 .677 HACKERS .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 .6 RUS-1000 .64 .638 .647 .596 .635 .64 COAL .625 .625 .5 .5 .625 .625 RETAIL .622 .584 .49 .415 .415 .433 AUTO .615 .538 .589 .538 .564 .589 SP-100 .593 .593 .645 .614 .687 .739 INDMATER .582 .538 .516 .494 .527 .593 ETFS .538 .569 .553 .43 .538 .569 FOOD .533 .6 .466 .466 .533 .6 REIT .525 .519 .553 .474 .558 .558 COMODITY .521 .619 .464 .464 .492 .563 OILGAS .52 .569 .555 .576 .638 .715 N=20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BEVERAGE .5 .45 .5 .5 .5 .55 BIGMIL .5 .5 .833 .666 .833 .833 BIOTECH .424 .437 .417 .375 .373 .391 TRANSP .35 .3 .55 .25 .35 .35 GOLD .224 .306 .183 .163 .244 .285 BONDFUND .098 .151 .125 .178 .107 .08 HOSPITAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=8
===============================================================================
11/17/2017 Our official Peerless signal remains the very bullish September Buy B21.
But, Friday just could not accommodate bulls with a continuation of Thursday's
big rally. So, it looks there will be some more weakness on Monday for the Dow.
It is by no means clear that Professionals will join in the sellers at the opening
or that the broader NASDAQ will be weak. We will soon be in a normally bullish
seasonal period. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 67% of the time over the bext
two months.
(Please note - a B10 appeared by mistake 10/25/17. The chart below
is correct. The chart shows two bands: +/-1.75% and (brown) +/- 3.5%.)
Still, we know that in 50% of the 8 instances of these September B21 Buys,
the DJI still needed to tag the lower 3.5% band in November before
rallying much higher.
The NASDAQ's head/shoulders pattern (above) appears to have been aborted by
Thursday's rally, but apparently we have to watch the H/S pattern
that still might work out in DIA. 232 is the key neckline support for DIA.
The good news is that Thanksgiving week is usually bullish, And when we
look back at November and December tests of the lower 3% band in years
after a Presidential Election, we find that only 2 times did the lower band not
hold up: November 1940 and 1948. But in 12 cases, buying at the lower band
would have been a good idea for the trader.
Other Lengthy Rallies: 1916-2017
The DJI has not tagged its lower 3.5% since June 2016. Perhaps, that is now
over-due. There are only three earlier cases where a DJI rally lasted longer.
But all these other cases' tops, except the one just before the JFK
assassination's one-day plunge in 1963, showed a previous Peerless Sell signal.
Lengthy >12 months) Lengthy DJI Rallies
until the DJI's 3.5% Lower Band Is Tagged:
1916 - 2017
Current 6/27/2016 to 11/17/2017 ... 16 + months
6/13/2006 to 7/20/2007 ... 13 + months. Bear Market soon followed.
11/25/1994 to 4/11/1996 ... 17 + months. 4 more years of Bull Mkt followed.
10/19/1992 to 3/3/1994 ... 16 + months. 11% correction followed.
12/27/1984 to 4/7/1986 ... 16 + months. Rebounded up from lower band.
11/22/1963 to 6/9/1965 ... 18 + months. 11% correction followed.
10/24/1962 to 11/22/1963 ... 13 months. 7% correct. (JFK assassination.)
12/8/1957 to 8/19/1959 ... 20 + months. 9% correction followed.
6/15/1949 to 6/26/1950 ... 12 months. 13.5% correction. SKorea invaded.
5/1/1942 to 7/27/1943 ... 14+ months. 7% correction.
As it is now, keep in mind, that to reach the lower band, the DJI-30 would
likely fall without much accompanying breadth-weakness. Thus on Friday,
the DJI fell 100, but there were still 880 more up than down and NYSE Up Volume
was 234 million more than Down Volume. Secondly, it looks like the biggest
pressure on the market, a deeper decline by retail stocks, seems to have been
postponed. On Friday, RETL gapped up above its now rising 65-dma on
red high volume. Thirdly, in the semi-conductors, AMAT's big reversal day
did not spread to other semi-conductors. Thirdly, Biotechs like IBB are now
probing the support of their 200-day ma. Fourth, industry groups remain
predominantly bullish. And fifth, Professionals and Day Traders are now
bullish many more stocks than they are bearish. See Tables 2 and 4.
Retailers' Quandry Points To The Longer-term Dilema for the US Economy
It is not just Amazon and the internet that are making store front retailers
go out of business. It is the decline of the middle class. Broad-Based Wage Stagnation
in the US has been evident since the 1970s. So, it giving the rich more money and
incentives to create jobs was the answer, we should already have a booming economy.
The truth, of course, is vastly more complex than Paul Ryan makes out.
1) Automation and robotization are here to stay. Giving more money to corporations
will surely speed up that trend. 2) So, is the export of jobs. Trump is closing the barn
door only after all the horses a "long gone". 3) Who will buy what will be made in America
if the number of middle class consumers keeps falling, as it has since the 1970s? Even in
seemingly affluent NY City, the upper West night near Columbia University is feeling the pain.
A NY Times article called my attention to the plight of the neighborhood stores and restaurants
that I used to frequent. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/19/opinion/nyc-empty-stores.html?emc=edit_th_20171120&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
Charts 11/17/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN New - SPPI (small Biotech)
11/17/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/17/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 233.39 -1.52 W234.66 -22.2% ---- RED .111 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6782.79 -10.5 6757.6 23.6% Bullish RED .279 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.86 -.76 W258.33 -4.5% Bullish RED .263 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.95 -.59 153.87 8.8% Bullish RED .312 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 335.07 .91 332.86 42.9% Bullish BLUE .294 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.45 .68 146.61 64.1% ---- BLUE .08 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.43 -.39 W59.59 16% Bullish ---- .123 .161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.44 2.02 24.72 563% ---- BLUE .213 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.67 -2.13 158.5 46% Bullish RED .374 .61 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 109.39 -1.87 W110.16 -38.8% Bullish RED .325 .229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 311.21 .4 310.08 -15.7% Bearish BLUE -.025 -.138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.05 .19 W6.09 -50.3% Bullish BLUE .259 .158 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.14 .36 W25.31 -333% ---- BLUE .165 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 22.49 .94 W24.65 -841.5% ---- RED .246 .325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.42 .58 W32.15 -239.4% Bullish BLUE .372 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.34 -.07 W24.56 -40.9% Bearish ---- -.039 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.18 .14 105.78 16.5% Bearish ---- -.073 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.97 .28 16.96 -20.8% Bearish BLUE -.186 -.108 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.23 .07 6.23 -48.2% Bullish ---- .105 -.109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.72 -.54 W34.81 -221.7% Bearish RED .049 .102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.93 .27 W22.21 -80% Bearish BLUE -.152 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 170.15 -.95 W173.97 -131.4% Bullish RED .169 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1019.09 -13.41 W1025.75 -43.7% Bullish RED .008 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 82.4 -.8 W83.93 -87.9% Bearish RED -.092 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1129.88 -7.41 1129.17 20% Bullish RED .234 .1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179 -.59 178.77 15.1% ---- RED .187 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 211.36 -.25 W212.63 -112.3% Bearish RED .123 .222 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 262.26 -1.44 W262.42 26.9% Bullish RED -.025 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 238.02 -1.35 W240.27 -44.6% ---- RED -.013 .026Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/17 11/16 11/15 11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31
NEWHIGHS 244 273 71 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392
NEWLOWS 229 150 111 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 295 321 154 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158
MINCPs 40 74 105 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 169 154 89 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76
TTTNLs 79 78 211 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 158 148 121 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150
FASTDOWN 136 177 253 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171117 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 5 29 % HACKERS 25 5 20 % GAMING 28 5 18 % =================================================================== CHINA 64 9 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % ELECTRON 179 20 11 % SOFTWARE 66 7 11 % NASD-100 88 10 11 % JETS 9 1 11 % BEVERAGE 20 2 10 % MORNSTAR 238 22 9 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % INDEXES 195 16 8 % SEMI 131 10 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % NIFTY 30 2 7 % RUS-1000 840 63 7 % ETFS 65 4 6 % SP500 486 31 6 % INSURANC 32 2 6 % CHEM 65 3 5 % FINANCE 92 5 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % GREEN 31 1 3 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INDMATER 92 3 3 % OILGAS 144 5 3 % BIOTECH 385 13 3 % REIT 179 3 2 % SP-100 96 1 1 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL REGBANKS AUTO DJI-13 INFRA COAL GOLD PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITALTable 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/17/17 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .941 .882 .882 NIFTY .866 .866 .833 .833 .833 .8 BIGBANKS .857 1 1 1 1 1 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 1 1 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEMI .786 .755 .74 .77 .763 .763 SOLAR .761 .714 .761 .809 .809 .809 ELECTRON .743 .72 .675 .703 .703 .715 DOWJONES .733 .8 .8 .833 .866 .866 INFRA .727 .727 .636 .727 .727 .818CHEM .707 .692 .615 .661 .676 .676 CHINA .703 .703 .687 .687 .703 .703 REGBANKS .696 .696 .666 .666 .575 .363 FINANCE .695 .684 .63 .673 .673 .597 MORNSTAR .689 .684 .588 .634 .668 .63INDEXES .682 .676 .615 .656 .687 .687 GAMING .678 .678 .642 .678 .642 .642 NASD-100 .67 .67 .647 .659 .67 .636 JETS .666 .777 .444 .444 .222 .222 INSURANC .656 .687 .687 .75 .781 .781SP500 .654 .666 .617 .668 .664 .646 GREEN .645 .58 .548 .645 .677 .645 HACKERS .64 .64 .6 .6 .6 .64 RUS-1000 .638 .647 .596 .635 .639 .622 MILITARY .631 .631 .578 .631 .631 .684COMODITY .628 .471 .471 .5 .571 .585 UTILITY .627 .697 .651 .744 .697 .651 COAL .625 .5 .5 .625 .625 .5 COMPUTER .608 .565 .478 .478 .478 .565 SOFTWARE .606 .636 .575 .59 .606 .621FOOD .6 .466 .466 .533 .6 .666 SP-100 .593 .645 .614 .687 .739 .718 RETAIL .584 .49 .415 .415 .433 .471 ETFS .569 .553 .43 .538 .569 .692 OILGAS .569 .555 .576 .638 .715 .715AUTO .538 .589 .538 .564 .589 .589 INDMATER .532 .51 .489 .521 .586 .576 REIT .519 .553 .474 .558 .564 .536============================================================================================== BIGMIL .5 .833 .666 .833 .833 .833 BEVERAGE .45 .5 .5 .5 .55 .5 BIOTECH .438 .418 .376 .374 .397 .431 GOLD .3 .18 .16 .24 .28 .26 TRANSP .3 .55 .25 .35 .35 .25 BONDFUND .151 .125 .178 .107 .08 .08 HOSPITAL 0 0 0 0 0 .125 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0
================================================================================
11/16/2017 Our official Peerless signal remains the very bullish September Buy B21.
The Buy B21 seems vindicated. Today the DJI jumped up 94 points at the
opening and just kept rising for much of the rest of the day. Given the
likely upwards direction of the market next week because of the Thanksgiving
seasonality, more new highs by the DJI seem quite likely and very soon.
A little more follow-through strength would cast the Hourly DJI in a more bullish
light and a rise in NYSE volume would help, too. Not to be picky, but the
the DJIA's 5-day ma has not yet turned up.
Still, the quick passage today in the House of Representatives of the Trump tax bill
puts added pressure on the Republican hold-outs in the Senate. This is what the market
really wants.
See https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/us/politics/house-tax-overhaul-bill.html?emc=edit_th_20171117&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
A new optimism has swept over Wall Street. Today's technical
developments were quite bullish:
1) Breadth was excellent today. There were 1472 more up than down on the NYSE.
This statistic has not been so positive since early August.
2) Today's big rally destroyed the potential head and shoulders patterns in
the NASDAQ, DIA and SPY that had been looming bearishly over the market.
See how the steeply rising Closing Powers and high Accumulation overwhelmed
the compact little head/shoulders patterns in price. The shorts are under great
pressure to scramble and cover.
3) Some of the most important ETFs closed above their 5-day pivot-points and
near the day's highs. This has given DIA, SPY, QQQ, COMPQX, TECL and SOXL
the QuickSilver across-the-board Bullish (blue) status. See table 1 further below.
4) Walmart's 10 point leap upwards today should give some energy to the market's weakest
group, the retailers.
5) Semi-conductors regained their leadership role as AMAT and CDNS made new highs
and TXN bullishly aborted its nascent head/shoulders pattern.
November Is Usually Bullish Given The Present Technical Parameters.
I've taken the current key values to the DJI chart and sought to match them
in past Novembers. I used the following historical search paramaters. You can
see they generally bracket today's key values on the Peerless chart just above.
Month must be 11 (November)
LA/MA must be between 1.01 and 1.01
AROC must be between .1 and .5
PI must be less than zero.
IP21 must be between .04 and .1
The DJI must be up between 0% and 10% (.10) for the last 65 trading days.
I found five past matches. They were in 1949, 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2015.
As you can seem the market rose quite bullishly in the first four but topped out
a few weeks later in November 2015. (In conjunction with the new Peerless
book's writing, I have written new 'in-house' software today that should allow
more such matches between salient current technical readings. "Stay tuned".)
and those in the past).
Charts 11/16/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN New - SPPI (small Biotech)
11/16/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/16/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.91 1.95 234.43 4.1% Bullish BLUE .208 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6793.29 87.08 6750.94 32.1% Bullish BLUE .344 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.62 2.18 258.09 8.7% Bullish BLUE .35 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 154.54 1.95 153.68 27.7% Bullish BLUE .388 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 334.16 3.29 332.22 28.8% Bullish BLUE .306 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 147.77 2.14 146.57 37.2% ---- BLUE .094 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.82 .48 59.24 22.7% Bullish RED .155 .178 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.42 1.45 25.59 342.4% Bearish BLUE -.041 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 160.8 6.93 157.22 208.1% Bullish BLUE .443 .562 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 111.26 4.32 110.24 37% Bullish BLUE .376 .211 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 310.81 4.56 W312.18 -3.7% Bearish BLUE -.037 -.15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.86 0 W6.11 -224.3% Bullish ---- .228 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.78 -.15 W25.78 -442.8% Bearish RED .108 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.55 .19 W26.39 -1018.4% Bullish ---- .232 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.84 -.4 W32.94 -284.9% Bullish RED .324 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.41 .03 W24.54 -30.6% Bearish ---- -.017 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.04 -.27 105.83 -15.6% Bearish RED -.093 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.69 -.12 W17.04 -91.6% Bearish RED -.34 -.129 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.16 -.04 W6.29 -72.1% Bullish ---- .056 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.26 1.86 W35.23 -48.3% Bearish BLUE .113 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.66 .28 W22.28 -168.1% Bearish BLUE -.194 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 171.1 2.02 W174.67 -138.2% Bullish RED .174 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1032.5 11.59 1028.07 6% Bullish BLUE .053 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.2 .22 W83.87 -53.1% Bearish BLUE -.036 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1137.29 10.6 1125.35 36.1% Bullish BLUE .249 .084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.59 1.64 178.46 8.1% ---- BLUE .222 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 211.61 1.63 W216.14 148.6% ---- RED .203 .193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 263.7 .84 260.85 19.1% Bullish RED .032 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 239.37 1.76 W240.15 -29.7% ---- BLUE .009 .032Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/16 11/15 11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30
NEWHIGHS 273 71 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190
NEWLOWS 150 111 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 321 154 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97
MINCPs 74 105 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 154 89 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72
TTTNLs 78 211 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 148 121 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112
FASTDOWN 177 253 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171116 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY 30 7 23 % GAMING 28 6 21 % HACKERS 25 4 16 % CHINA 64 10 16 % SOFTWARE 66 10 15 % NASD-100 88 13 15 % ELECTRON 179 25 14 % SEMI 131 18 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % JETS 9 1 11 % MORNSTAR 238 24 10 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % INDEXES 195 18 9 % UTILITY 43 4 9 % SP500 486 40 8 % RUS-1000 841 71 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % DOWJONES 30 2 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % CHEM 65 4 6 % ETFS 65 4 6 % INSURANC 32 2 6 % SP-100 96 5 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % INDMATER 92 4 4 % BIOTECH 387 14 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % REIT 179 5 3 % FINANCE 92 2 2 % OILGAS 144 3 2 % Rest 0%RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/16/17 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .941 .882 .882 .882 NIFTY .866 .833 .833 .833 .8 .8 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 BIGMIL .833 .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 DOWJONES .8 .8 .833 .866 .866 .866 JETS .777 .444 .444 .222 .222 .222 SEMI .755 .74 .77 .763 .77 .778 INFRA .727 .636 .727 .727 .818 .909 ELECTRON .72 .675 .703 .703 .715 .72 SOLAR .714 .761 .809 .809 .809 .857 CHINA .703 .687 .687 .703 .703 .656 UTILITY .697 .651 .744 .697 .651 .697 REGBANKS .696 .666 .666 .575 .363 .484 CHEM .692 .615 .661 .676 .676 .676 INSURANC .687 .687 .75 .781 .781 .781 FINANCE .684 .63 .673 .673 .597 .608 MORNSTAR .684 .588 .634 .668 .638 .638 GAMING .678 .642 .678 .642 .642 .607 INDEXES .676 .615 .656 .687 .692 .651 NASD-100 .67 .647 .659 .67 .636 .636 SP500 .666 .617 .668 .664 .646 .648 RUS-1000 .648 .596 .636 .639 .623 .626 SP-100 .645 .614 .687 .739 .729 .77 HACKERS .64 .6 .6 .6 .64 .6 SOFTWARE .636 .575 .59 .606 .621 .621 MILITARY .631 .578 .631 .631 .684 .71 AUTO .589 .538 .564 .589 .589 .589 GREEN .58 .548 .645 .677 .645 .612 COMPUTER .565 .478 .478 .478 .565 .521 OILGAS .555 .576 .638 .715 .715 .736 ETFS .553 .43 .538 .569 .692 .707 REIT .553 .474 .558 .564 .541 .525 TRANSP .55 .25 .35 .35 .3 .3 INDMATER .51 .489 .521 .586 .586 .608 N=36 ============================================================================================= BEVERAGE .5 .5 .5 .55 .5 .4 COAL .5 .5 .625 .625 .5 .375 ============================================================================================= RETAIL .49 .415 .415 .433 .471 .396 FOOD .466 .466 .533 .6 .666 .733 COMODITY .463 .463 .492 .565 .579 .594 BIOTECH .416 .374 .372 .395 .434 .41 GOLD .18 .16 .24 .28 .26 .3 BONDFUND .125 .178 .107 .08 .089 .178 HOSPITAL 0 0 0 0 .125 .125 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N= 8
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
11/15/2017 Our official Peerless signal remains the very bullish September Buy B21.
Despite a big drop at the opening, the DIA, SPY and the NASDAQ could not break
decisively below the neckline-supports of their head/shoulders' patterns. Helping the markets,
The Labor Department reported Wednesday morning that the CPI hardly moved up
at all in October. In addition, real wages actually fell. Without wage inflation, one might
hope that Fed could relax a little bit about raising raising rates. That news did not stop
short-term rates from rising. That, in turn, stopped the Utilities' defensive rally.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm (CPI)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm (wages)
Christmas advertising has started already. Depressed retailers are betting there will be
a turn-inwards in Holiday sales. Retailers' stocks blipped up today. .A continuation
of RETL's rally-attempt should take some pressure off the stock market, especially
among regional banks. This ought then allow the SP-500 to make new highs
in the bullish month of December.
This would be very consistent with the past history of September Buy B21s where
50% of the time the DJI only drops to slightly below the 21-day ma in November
and 50% of the time it declines just to a point just above the lower 3.5% band.
A brief decline at this time would also be in keeping with the very high levels of
current Accumulation (IP21), which we see in the NASDAQ, DIA, SPY, QQQ,
SOXL and TECL. See Table 1 below
Let's still be cautious. These key ETFs are still considerably below tomorrow's
pivot-points and show falling 5-day moving averages. See Table 1.
Charts 11/15/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN New - SPPI (small Biotech)
11/15/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER Evaluation of MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/15/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 232.96 -1.32 W234.72 -53.3% Bullish RED .213 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6706.21 -31.66 W6750.05 -61.4% Bullish BLUE .317 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 256.44 -1.29 W258.17 -51.7% Bullish RED .333 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 152.59 -.72 W153.69 -62.1% Bullish ---- .36 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 330.87 -1.54 W332.25 -45.5% Bullish BLUE .292 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 145.63 -.58 W146.68 -53.5% Bearish BLUE .075 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.34 -.28 W59.55 -57.9% Bullish BLUE .202 .147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.97 .12 24.71 285.6% Bearish BLUE -.089 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 153.87 -4.19 W154.29 -328.8% Bullish ---- .458 .508 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 106.94 -2.48 W110.45 -274.3% Bullish RED .371 .182 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 306.25 1.2 W311.04 -105.6% Bearish BLUE -.092 -.151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.86 -.04 W6.13 -189.6% Bullish ---- .228 .073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.93 -.39 W26 -381% Bearish RED .091 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.36 -.55 W26.47 -822.7% Bullish RED .196 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.24 -.35 W32.67 -245.1% Bullish RED .384 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.38 -.01 W24.56 -57% Bearish ---- -.049 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.31 .38 W106.37 -4.7% Bullish ---- -.024 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.81 .03 W17 -123.5% Bearish ---- -.291 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.2 -.05 W6.25 -48% Bullish ---- .069 -.128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.4 -1.21 W34.59 -301.1% Bearish RED .117 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.38 -.41 W22.4 -231.8% Bearish RED -.263 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 169.08 -2.26 W175.88 -205.3% Bullish RED .157 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1020.91 -5.09 W1031.26 -91.9% Bullish BLUE .042 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 82.98 -1.07 W84.09 -93.9% Bearish RED -.041 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1126.69 -10.15 W1129.13 -27.4% Bullish RED .199 .097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 177.95 -.12 W179.3 -45% ---- BLUE .179 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 209.98 -4.2 205.32 19.4% Bullish RED .268 .199 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 262.86 1.1 262.7 -51.6% Bullish BLUE .077 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 237.61 .37 W240.79 -75.9% Bullish BLUE .076 .018Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/15 11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27
NEWHIGHS 71 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480
NEWLOWS 111 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 154 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184
MINCPs 105 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 89 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76
TTTNLs 211 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 121 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95
FASTDOWN 253 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/15/17 Bullish = 30 Bearish = 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 1 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .882 .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 NIFTY .833 .833 .833 .8 .833 .833 DOWJONES .8 .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 SOLAR .761 .809 .809 .809 .857 .809 SEMI .74 .77 .763 .77 .778 .809 CHINA .687 .687 .703 .703 .671 .687 INSURANC .687 .75 .781 .781 .781 .718 ELECTRON .675 .703 .703 .715 .72 .737 BIGMIL .666 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 REGBANKS .666 .666 .575 .363 .484 .545 UTILITY .651 .744 .697 .651 .697 .72 NASD-100 .647 .659 .67 .636 .636 .681 GAMING .642 .678 .642 .642 .642 .642 INFRA .636 .727 .727 .818 .909 .909 FINANCE .63 .673 .673 .597 .608 .619 SP500 .617 .668 .664 .646 .652 .668 CHEM .615 .661 .676 .676 .692 .723 INDEXES .615 .656 .687 .692 .651 .661 SP-100 .614 .687 .739 .729 .76 .77 HACKERS .6 .6 .6 .64 .6 .64 RUS-1000 .596 .636 .639 .623 .627 .643 MORNSTAR .588 .634 .668 .638 .642 .684 MILITARY .578 .631 .631 .684 .684 .815 OILGAS .576 .638 .715 .715 .736 .736 SOFTWARE .575 .59 .606 .621 .621 .666 GREEN .548 .645 .677 .645 .612 .645 AUTO .538 .564 .589 .589 .589 .692 Bullish = 30 ========================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .5 .55 .5 .4 .35 COAL .5 .625 .625 .5 .375 .5 ========================================================================================== INDMATER .489 .521 .586 .586 .619 .608 COMPUTER .478 .478 .478 .565 .521 .521 REIT .474 .558 .564 .541 .519 .53 FOOD .466 .533 .6 .666 .733 .733 COMODITY .457 .485 .557 .571 .585 .585 JETS .444 .444 .222 .222 .222 .333 ETFS .43 .538 .569 .692 .707 .784 RETAIL .415 .415 .433 .471 .415 .32 BIOTECH .374 .372 .395 .434 .413 .439 TRANSP .25 .35 .35 .3 .3 .6 BONDFUND .178 .107 .08 .089 .178 .223 GOLD .16 .24 .28 .26 .3 .32 HOSPITAL 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bearish = 14
=================================================================================
11/14/2017 Has Republican Congressional Leadership Hit The Panic Button regarding
The Tax Cut? Their Sudden "Switcheroo" Is Bound To Worry Many Investors.
Completed Head/Shoulders in DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ could be judged
to be a Sell S10, even though the patterns are small. But I would wait to make
that official. The good news is that the 65-dma supports should hold.
Traders should hedge with more Bearish MINCPs, especially among Airlines and Biotechs.
Our official Peerless signal will remain the very bullish Buy September B21.
But the completion of these H/S patterns is clearly bearish, as today's very weak
opening shows. Take more Bearish MINCP shorts. Abide by the falling 5-day moving
averages shown in Table 1. Almost all the ETFs now show this.
We should not be surprised by this decline to the 65-dma. As noted already, half of the
previous September B21s led to November declines down to the rising 65-dma or very near to
the lower band. I also noted this weekend a price would probably have to be paid for
the sizeable fall in the P-Indicator on the last new high. Now the quick development of
head/shoulders patterns in the NASDAQ, SP-500 and DIA (DJI), which are considerably above
their 65-dma, are consistent with such a decline. I've studied these patterns in this position.
.When they occur quite a ways above a rising 65-dma and also show very positive IP21-
Accumulation readings, the most frequent outcome is a decline only to the rising 65-dma.
But these H/S patterns are significant. They show that the market must
suddenly take into account bearish news that it had not previously fully discounted.
That news came out on two fronts today. The October Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4%
(or 4.8% annualized). If the PPI continues to rise at this pace, it would suggest inflation has
picked up considerably. Tomorrow morning, the Labor Dept will provide another key measure
of inflation, the Consumer Price Index. Watch for it. Anything that annualizes above 4% will
almost certainly cause the Fed to raise rates more aggressively.
Later today, the second piece of bearish news broke. It is more bearish. The Republicans in
Congress and the White House are starting to feel heat from the Bond Market side
of Wall Street. The risk of a big tax cut hurting Government revenue is too high. So now,
the new tax cut legislation suddenly WILL include an ending to the expensive Obama Care
"mandate". I would say this dramatically lowers the odds of tax cut legislation being passed
this year, though Goldman Sachs says it raises it. Right now, the skittishness of the market
suggests lots of others investors are shaking their heads in wonderment about the unsteadiness
of the Republican Congressional leadership. Predictability and consistency are important
to investors. The head and shoulders pattern in the DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ reflect
the market's need to quickly revise downward its estimations of a tax bill passing. This makes
a decline to the DJI's rising 65-dma seem quite likely.
(See
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/us/politics/tax-plan-senate-obamacare-individual-mandate-trump.html?emc=edit_th_20171115&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/sen-paul-plans-amendment-to-gut-obamacare-in-tax-bill-testing-gop-unity/2017/11/14/f95066c6-c94e-11e7-8321-481fd63f174d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_goptax-1230p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.afba1f2a4171 )
WHAT TO DO.
I'm hoping some of you reduced your trading positions last week, when that was suggested.
Now traders should just let the decline play itself out. As long as the 5-day moving averages
are falling, there would seem to be no reason to buy back these positions in DIA, SPY or
the NASDAQ. Let's see if they fall by Monday to their 65-dma and fulfill the minimum
downside objectives of their head/shoulders patterns. A Thanksgiving Rally should then
be attempted.
At the same time,I'm hoping some of you have shorted a few of our bearish MINCPs.
Add to those positions is my counsel. Here we want to focus on stocks showing lots of
recent red Distribution, a very weak Closing Power and poor relative strength. I would
also look to those Industry Groups or Sectors showing the most new lows in the last few
trading days. That means Biotechs (10 tonight), Pipelines (4 of 7) and Jets (2/7).
Charts 11/14/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/14/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represewnt Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opening changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/14/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.28 -.38 W235.46 -24.3% Bullish BLUE .253 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6737.87 -19.73 W6789.12 -22.1% Bullish BLUE .318 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.73 -.6 W259.11 -18.2% Bullish BLUE .364 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.31 -.56 W154.5 -18.5% Bullish ---- .375 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.41 -.45 W333.9 -10.1% Bullish BLUE .269 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.21 -.4 W147.2 -26.9% Bearish BLUE .041 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.62 .03 W60.03 -66.9% Bullish BLUE .161 .151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.85 .13 23.56 291% Bearish ---- -.089 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.06 -.44 W164.29 -144% Bullish BLUE .473 .552 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 109.42 -.74 W113.01 -79.7% Bullish BLUE .404 .205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 305.05 -5.03 W312.8 -143.7% Bearish RED -.12 -.16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.9 -.19 W6.09 -204.4% Bullish RED .248 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.32 -.99 W25.87 -304.6% Bearish RED .062 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.91 -2.74 W25.47 -830.2% Bullish RED .181 .192 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.59 -.56 W32.83 -177.5% Bullish RED .486 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.39 -.17 W24.66 -56.9% Bearish RED -.085 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 105.93 .15 W106.41 -28.7% ---- BLUE -.057 -.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.78 -.18 W17.23 -143.3% Bearish RED -.309 -.129 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.25 .02 W6.26 -31.9% Bullish ---- .056 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.61 -1.2 W34.48 -100.9% Bearish RED .117 .1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.79 -.42 W22.41 -100.9% Bearish RED -.195 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 171.34 -2.63 W176.24 -99.1% Bullish RED .188 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1026 .25 W1039.85 -35.5% Bullish BLUE .03 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.05 .12 W84.56 -13.1% ---- BLUE .004 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1136.84 7.67 1132.88 60.6% Bullish BLUE .212 .101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.07 -.7 W179.56 -60.8% ---- BLUE .208 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 214.18 1.55 209.16 50.9% Bullish BLUE .271 .215 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 261.76 -.66 W265.57 -82.9% Bullish RED .097 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 237.24 -3.03 W241.25 -53.4% Bearish RED -.069 .013
Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/14 11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26
NEWHIGHS 198 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309
NEWLOWS 150 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 276 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120
MINCPs 192 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 125 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59
TTTNLs 259 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 146 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86
FASTDOWN 249 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/14/17 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 .823 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 NIFTY .833 .833 .8 .833 .833 .8 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .857 .809 .809 SEMI .77 .763 .77 .778 .809 .786 INSURANC .75 .781 .781 .781 .718 .75 UTILITY .744 .697 .651 .697 .72 .697 INFRA .727 .727 .818 .909 .909 .909 ELECTRON .703 .703 .715 .72 .737 .726 CHINA .687 .703 .703 .671 .687 .687 SP-100 .687 .739 .729 .76 .77 .791 GAMING .678 .642 .642 .642 .642 .5 FINANCE .673 .673 .597 .608 .63 .739 SP500 .668 .664 .646 .652 .668 .662 REGBANKS .666 .575 .363 .484 .545 .696 CHEM .661 .676 .676 .692 .723 .738 NASD-100 .659 .67 .636 .636 .681 .659 INDEXES .656 .687 .692 .651 .676 .676 GREEN .645 .677 .645 .612 .645 .774 OILGAS .643 .72 .72 .741 .741 .762 RUS-1000 .636 .64 .623 .628 .643 .638 MORNSTAR .634 .668 .638 .642 .68 .642 MILITARY .631 .631 .684 .684 .789 .763 COAL .625 .625 .5 .375 .5 .625 HACKERS .6 .6 .64 .6 .64 .64 SOFTWARE .59 .606 .621 .621 .666 .621 AUTO .564 .589 .589 .589 .692 .692 REIT .558 .564 .541 .519 .525 .48 ETFS .538 .569 .692 .707 .784 .784 FOOD .533 .6 .666 .733 .733 .666 INDMATER .521 .586 .586 .619 .619 .652 ============================================================================================ BEVERAGE .5 .55 .5 .4 .35 .4 ============================================================================================= COMODITY .485 .557 .571 .585 .585 .571 COMPUTER .478 .478 .565 .521 .521 .521 JETS .444 .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 RETAIL .415 .433 .471 .415 .32 .32 BIOTECH .372 .395 .434 .413 .444 .459 TRANSP .35 .35 .3 .3 .6 .65 GOLD .24 .28 .26 .3 .32 .28 BONDFUND .107 .08 .089 .178 .223 .196 HOSPITAL 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .125 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=10
=========================================================================
========================================================================= .
11/13/2017 I have suggested doing a small amount of profit-taking if you are a trader.
Many of the major ETFs now show falling 5-day moving averages and are below
tomorrow's pivot points. But what strikes me as important now is the way the
market keeps refusing to sell-off despite the frequently stressed-out urgings of
some of the perma-bears. (See Will The Perma-Bears Ever Learn? )
What Might Hurt This Market?
I have said that it is mainly a new Korean war that would seem to be a threat to
the bull market. Two other forces are at work. First, if Congress were to act to
allow Americans to buy drugs more easily outside the US where they are cheaper,
that would explain the current weakness in biotechs and pharmaceuticals. It would hit
the NASDAQ hard, too. Second, if Congress were not to pass a big tax cut that
aids the wealthiest and big corporations, that too, would derail the bull market. From
the market's viewpoint, the danger here is that it may be whittled down too much just to get
it to pass. We'll see. But significantly, Wall Street Democrats (the Clintons, Pelosi and Schumer)
are loudly silent about the Trump tax cuts. Senator Sanders, of course, is the major
exception. Compare their silence with the shrill, almost desperate, cries of economist
Paul Krugman in today's New York Times. I would bet a big tax cut will pass. Certainly,
the Democrats are posing no real opposition. They prefer to stick to their Russian
conspiracy-mongering.
( https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/opinion/republican-taxes-next-generation.html?emc=edit_th_20171114&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894 )
Technicals To Watch
True, the A/D Line is waning, but so far, the major market ETFs and their
Indexes have not completed any top patterns. Even if they do break to minor
new lows, the high levels of Accumulation should not allow them to drop below the
support of their 65-dma. See these minor support levels in the NASDAQ (COMPQX)
and also the S&P-500, NYSE and OEX. Meanwhile, the stronger get stronger: see
how the leading semi-conductors are, so far, holding well above their recent support levels.
Next week should be up if the market follows its usual behavior before Thanksgiving.
And then, December ranks as the most bullish month of the year. So, I don't see any point
in being bearish, much less super-bearish. As far as Peerless goes, we are still operating
under our very bullish Buy B21. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 63% of the time
over the two months following November 13th.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 11/13/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/13/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Semi-Conductors
Bearish MINCPs
Groups To Watch Closely: IBB and Drug Makers.
For Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/13/17
> Falling 5-day moving averages predominate.
> Bearish RED across-the-board Quicksilver values are seen in IBB.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.66 .23 W235.42 -16% Bullish BLUE .246 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6757.6 6.66 W6767.78 -21.3% Bullish BLUE .302 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.33 .24 W258.67 -10.1% Bullish BLUE .342 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.87 .19 W153.88 2.6% Bullish BLUE .383 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.86 .64 W333.08 -35% Bullish BLUE .227 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.61 .04 W147 -73.7% Bearish BLUE -.002 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.59 .35 W60.42 -194.2% Bullish BLUE .159 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.72 -.87 23.43 -100% Bearish RED -.098 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.5 1.28 W162.65 -143.5% Bullish BLUE .49 .497 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.16 -.08 W111.19 -35.1% Bullish BLUE .421 .188 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 310.08 -2.1 W314.02 -88% Bearish RED -.138 -.144 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.09 -.02 W6.15 -73.4% Bullish ---- .282 .176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.31 -.47 W25.89 -119.7% ---- RED .085 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 24.65 -1.74 W26.2 -384.9% Bullish RED .24 .35 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.15 -.79 W32.75 -114.3% Bullish RED .477 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.56 .02 W24.67 -14.2% Bearish ---- .013 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 105.78 -.05 W106.54 -33.9% ---- RED -.075 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 16.96 -.08 W17.27 -90.3% Bearish ---- -.271 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.23 -.06 W6.29 -71.6% Bullish ---- .012 -.11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.81 -.42 34.31 161% ---- BLUE .138 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.21 -.07 W22.24 -15.7% Bearish ---- -.176 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 173.97 -.7 W174.81 -8% Bullish BLUE .258 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1025.75 -2.32 W1033.33 -.7% Bullish BLUE .021 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.93 .06 W84.27 -32% Bearish BLUE -.024 .068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1129.17 3.82 1123.17 37.8% Bullish BLUE .189 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.77 .31 W180.25 -39% ---- BLUE .206 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 212.63 -3.51 212.03 71.3% Bullish RED .287 .18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 262.42 1.57 W266.13 -31.3% Bullish BLUE .056 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 240.27 .12 239.81 -66.8% ---- BLUE -.003 -.003Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/13 11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25
NEWHIGHS 191 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153
NEWLOWS 113 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 259 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86
MINCPs 150 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 101 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42
TTTNLs 203 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 148 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73
FASTDOWN 260 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171113 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- UTILITY 43 16 37 % HOMEBLDG 17 3 18 % GAMING 28 5 18 % NIFTY 30 5 17 % CHINA 64 11 17 % BEVERAGE 20 3 15 % ------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR 21 3 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % HACKERS 25 3 12 % SOFTWARE 66 6 9 % SP500 486 46 9 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % NASD-100 88 8 9 % ELECTRON 179 15 8 % SEMI 132 11 8 % RUS-1000 842 64 8 % REIT 178 15 8 % INDEXES 195 14 7 % ETFS 65 4 6 % MORNSTAR 238 15 6 % CHEM 65 3 5 % INDMATER 92 4 4 % BIOTECH 387 14 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % SP-100 96 3 3 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % OILGAS 144 2 1 % --------------------------------------------------- None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL GREEN AUTO DJI-13 FINANCE MILITARY INFRA TRANSP COMPUTER COAL GOLD PIPELINE COMODITY FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETSFalling Trend of All Stocks shows greater need now to be selective in buying
and, perhaps, do some hedging by shorting some our Bearish MINCPs.
.Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/13/17 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .823 .823 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 .833 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 NIFTY .833 .8 .833 .833 .8 .8 SOLAR .809 .809 .857 .809 .809 .809 N=8 INSURANC .781 .781 .781 .718 .75 .75 SEMI .765 .772 .78 .81 .787 .803 SP-100 .739 .729 .76 .77 .791 .77 INFRA .727 .818 .909 .909 .909 .818 OILGAS .715 .715 .736 .736 .75 .777 CHINA .703 .703 .671 .687 .687 .703 ELECTRON .703 .715 .72 .737 .726 .754 UTILITY .697 .651 .697 .72 .697 .697 INDEXES .687 .692 .651 .676 .682 .676 GREEN .677 .645 .612 .645 .774 .774 CHEM .676 .676 .692 .723 .723 .738 FINANCE .673 .597 .608 .63 .739 .815 NASD-100 .67 .636 .636 .681 .659 .681 MORNSTAR .668 .638 .642 .68 .642 .668 SP500 .664 .646 .652 .668 .662 .67 GAMING .642 .642 .642 .642 .5 .607 RUS-1000 .64 .623 .628 .643 .64 .656 MILITARY .631 .684 .684 .789 .789 .789 COAL .625 .5 .375 .5 .625 .875 SOFTWARE .606 .621 .621 .666 .621 .696 FOOD .6 .666 .733 .733 .666 .6 HACKERS .6 .64 .6 .64 .64 .64 AUTO .589 .589 .589 .692 .692 .692 INDMATER .586 .586 .619 .619 .652 .684 REGBANKS .575 .363 .484 .545 .696 .848 ETFS .569 .692 .707 .784 .784 .784 REIT .567 .544 .522 .528 .488 .443 COMODITY .557 .571 .585 .585 .571 .6 BEVERAGE .55 .5 .4 .35 .4 .45 N=29 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ COMPUTER .478 .565 .521 .521 .521 .565 RETAIL .433 .471 .415 .32 .32 .396 BIOTECH .395 .434 .413 .444 .467 .545 TRANSP .35 .3 .3 .6 .65 .6 GOLD .28 .26 .3 .32 .28 .28 JETS .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 .333 BONDFUND .08 .089 .169 .214 .187 .133 HOSPITAL 0 .125 .125 .125 .125 0 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=9
===============================================================================
11/10/2017 A little precautionary selling by short-term traders has been suggested here.
But our technical indicators suggest only a minor pullback.
The way NVDA blew past even the bullish earnings estimations on Friday
has probably re-invigorated the leading semi-conductors. Watch
the 'semis' shown here. As long as they do not close below their near-term
support, we are probably only seeing a shallow and temporary retreat.
(Nvidia reported earnings of $1.33 per share on revenues of $2.64 billion.
Wall Street was expecting adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share.)
If a big decline were about to start, we would expect to see red Distribution,
long and larger breadth divergences. We would see multiple head/shoulders tops
in leading DJI and SP-500 stocks. The Hourly DISI would be making new lows
ahead of price and Gold stocks most likely would have recently risen 25% or so.
None of these bearish elements are present now. Even the Dollar is above its 65-dma.
No big financial panic is impending that I can detect. The biggest threat, of course,
comes in the form of a war with North Korea. But given the number of Goldman
Sachs people working in the Trump Administration, I would expect to see more
market weakness if such a war was really growing near.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 11/10/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/10/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs New Issue Breakouts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
If you look back at the 8 previous cases of Buy B21, you see that in 4 instances the
DJI fell back to the rising 65-dma in November and in 4 cases it fell back only
a little below the 21-day ma. So, it is perfectly normal to have a limited November
decline.
It is true that NYSE breadth has been deteriorating steadily and the V-I is negative.
One could construct a Peerless Sell from that. But looking back at the signal it
would have produced, which is shown is Table A below, we see there were 2 instances
of 5 where the market soon after took off very strongly and where the signal would
have worked out well, there already were other Peerless Sell signals.
So, I think we should just give the market a little time to settle back in preparation
for the usual pre-Thanksgiving and December rally. But watch the NYSE to see
if can hold above its near-term support. Watch the oversold Biotechs. IBB is now
down the support of its rising 200-day ma. Watch the weak the Closing Power
for IWM (Russell-2000). If it can break its downtrend, the sell-off now will almost
certainly be over. For the time being, we see falling 5-day moving averages for
most of the major market ETFs: DIA, COMPQX(Nasdaq), SPY, MDYand IWM.
From the fact that their pivot-points are a good ways above their closing prices on
Friday, we can below that it will be difficult for them to turn up convincingly
on Monday. This is conclusion I reach from studying Table 1. The "W" stands for
'warning', the next day's pivot-point is above the most recent close.
ETFs Friday's Close Pivot-Point Current AROC
of 5-day ma
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 234.43 -.29 W235.41 -15.9%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 6750.94 +.89 W6786.44 -10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 258.09 -.08 W258.85 -7%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 332.22 -.03 W335.19 -24.6%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 146.57 -.11 W148.78 -69.1%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 59.24 -.31 W61.93 -184.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 110.24 -.21 W110.94 -3.6%
Past Tax Cuts for The Wealthy Have Always
Set The Stage for Big Rallies so long as Interest
Rates are not much, much higher than they are now.
Don't underestimate how bullish a big tax cut plan combined with a Republican
President and a Republican Congress is for stocks, at least for a long time
and until interest rates go shooting upwards.
The Coolidge years from 1924 to April 1929 were very good but, it's true
that there still there were periodic corrections.
November 1925 - DJI peaked on 11/6 and fell back 7% that month to its rising 65-dma.
It then rose strongly.
Feb.11, 1926 - DJI peaked after tax cut was passed and fell back 17%, partly
as a result of Florida Real Estate Crash.
Oct.4, 1927 - DJI fell 7% and resumed big bull market. In 1928, even the Fed could
not stop the bull market by raising interest rates.
Nov. 1928 - DJI fell 10% but then the DJIA took off wildly to the upside.
The Reagan years from 1982 to April 1987 were excellent for the stock market.
It's true that 1981-1982 saw a bear market, but that war born ofinterest rates
that reached 20%. The first tax cut in 1981 could not bring a rise in stock prices until
the Fed signaled in August 1982 that it was done, for the time being, with keeping rates
extraordinarily high.
The DJI rose steeply from August 1982 to January 1984, when the FED again
started raising rates. A financial crisis in the Summer caused by the failure of the
huge Continental Bank caused the Fed to relent. The DJI rose steadily until
a new Fed Chairman, Greenspan, saw the Dollar weakening and decided to
raise interest rates in September 1987.
The Reagan years teach us that a fanatical Fed has more control over the stock
market than a pro-business/pro-growth. But the lesson of the Coolidge years is
that a largely unregulated stock market can go up much more than a more normal
FED can contain. Greenspan's behavior in 1995-1999 shows that a cautious
Fed Chairman who does not use his regulatory powers will probably only act
to restrain the stock market only after it has gone to considerable excess. w.
The Eisenhower years were generally pro-business. But there was no big tax-cut
for the wealthy or for corporations back then. What kept the market going from
1952-1957 was the ending of the Korea War, the strongly competitive US manufacturing
base, lots of consumer demand from a relatively well-paid working class, big Military
spending and the start of the Interstate Highway infrastructure program. But here
again, it was the Fed that stopped the bull market. In 1957, interest rates were
pushed up above 3%. They had previously been very stable at about 2%. That
finally brought a 20% DJI decline in the Fall of 1957.
Where Will The Next Threats to The Bull Market Come from?
War with Korea is clearly the biggest threat now. If insiders saw this coming, they
would be distributing stock and we would probably see negative Accumulation readings
and head/shoulders patterns that we do not now see.
Interest rates are still very low now. So, the FED should not pose a threat. The big technology
stocks' boom now is reminiscent of RCA in the 1920s, I've said.
A big divergence between one part of the financial market and another is also common place.
It is long forgotten how in the 1920s, agriculture, commodities, small town and banks did
very poorly. In the Reagan Years, the high interest rates and strong Dollar saw the
same phenomenon, except that older US manufacturing was then in a serious decline.
The weakened rural economy in both periods brought on bank failures. But the stock
market just kept rising in the 1920s. It was the Paul Volcker's obsession with fighting
all potential inflation and then the failure of the big Continental Illinois Bank in the Spring
of 1984, as much as anything, that caused the DJI to fall from nearly 1286 (Jan 1984)
to 1087 (July 1984). In 1986, two years later, at much higher stocks price levels, Wall Street
insider trading scandals stopped the growing merger mania and brought about two more
10% corrections in the long 1982-1987 bull market.
Right now the biggest threat I see is the falling Retail stocks. They could bring about
some failures in regional banks that have a big stake in the thousands of shopping malls
that dot the American landscape. But the lessons of 1984 and 2008-2009, are that the FED
would probably cut rates if there was a serious problem for one or more big banks.
1) 12/10/1947 175.9 to 183.6 down to 163.6 (down 6.9%) LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.04 .444 -29 -4 .151 -42 .259 --------------------------------------------- 2) 6/12/1950 228.4 down to 197.5 (perfect) Peerless already gives an S8/S5 here. LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.027 .52 33 -3 .176 -50 .405 --------------------------------------------- 3) 6/29/1954 336.9 to 349.6 to 335.8 (LB) then up! Very risky and of no value. LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.028 .342 37 -6 .157 -77 .488 --------------------------------------------- 4) 10/17/2001 9232.96 down to 9075.14 (LB) then up strongly! Very risky and of no value. LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.032 .439 81 -3 .157 -.69 .012 low --------------------------------------------- 5) 5/3/2011 12807.51 down to 11897.27 This already was an S9/S5. LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.027 .412 113 -99 .154 -47 .352 --------------------------------------------- 6) 10/24/2017 23441.76 23563.36 to (23461.94) LA/MA AROC PI ch IP21 VI OPct 1.027 .599 205 -7 .170 -20 -54
For Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/10/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.43 -.29 W235.41 -15.9% ---- ---- .212 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6750.94 .89 W6786.44 -10% Bullish BLUE .255 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.09 -.08 W258.85 -7% Bullish BLUE .317 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.68 -.01 W153.79 13.3% Bullish BLUE .383 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.22 -.03 W335.19 -24.6% Bullish BLUE .169 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.57 -.11 W148.78 -69.1% Bearish RED -.042 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.24 -.31 W61.93 -184.6% Bearish RED .156 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.59 .88 25.21 88.1% Bearish BLUE -.108 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 157.22 2.93 W163.1 24.4% Bullish BLUE .474 .503 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.24 -.21 W110.94 -3.6% Bullish BLUE .392 .186 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 312.18 1.14 W315.59 -74.7% Bearish BLUE -.141 -.131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.11 -.02 W6.18 155.9% Bullish ---- .29 .189 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.78 -.22 W25.93 198.5% ---- RED .088 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 26.39 -.08 W26.67 469.8% Bullish BLUE .284 .521 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.94 .27 32.9 107.1% Bullish BLUE .521 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.54 -.02 W24.63 -30.4% Bearish ---- .055 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 105.83 -.54 W106.5 -25.4% ---- RED -.025 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.04 .04 W17.27 -81.3% Bearish ---- -.219 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.29 .04 W6.32 8% Bullish BLUE .079 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 35.23 .64 33.7 269.8% ---- BLUE .117 .118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.28 -.12 22.28 112.5% Bearish RED -.154 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 174.67 -1.21 174.25 62.1% Bullish RED .266 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1028.07 -3.19 1025.9 -21.4% Bullish BLUE -.003 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.87 -.22 W84.47 -16% Bearish BLUE -.062 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1125.35 -3.78 1120.66 61.2% Bullish RED .185 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.46 -.84 W180.17 -12.8% Bearish BLUE .176 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 216.14 10.82 209.63 178.3% Bullish BLUE .366 .208 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 260.85 -1.85 W264.07 -17% Bullish RED .008 .02 --------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------ GS 240.15 -.64 W243.49 -87.8% Bearish RED -.013 .005Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/10 11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24
NEWHIGHS 164 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376
NEWLOWS 98 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 167 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117
MINCPs 138 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 88 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70
TTTNLs 237 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 190 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92
FASTDOWN 221 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171110 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 7 2 29 % CHINA 64 12 19 % BEVERAGE 20 3 15 % ------------------------------------------------------------------ HOMEBLDG 17 2 12 % GAMING 28 3 11 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % ETFS 65 6 9 % ELECTRON 179 16 9 % SOFTWARE 66 6 9 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % NASD-100 88 8 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % HACKERS 25 2 8 % SEMI 130 11 8 % DOWJONES 30 2 7 % NIFTY 30 2 7 % SP500 486 24 5 % RUS-1000 842 42 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % MORNSTAR 238 9 4 % BIOTECH 387 16 4 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % REIT 178 7 4 % RETAIL 53 2 4 % INDEXES 195 3 2 % FINANCE 92 1 1 % SP-100 96 1 1 % INDMATER 92 1 1 % OILGAS 144 2 1 % COMODITY 71 1 1 % Others 0 0% (BIGBANKS,BIGMIL,GREEN,REGBANKS,AUTO,CHEM,MILITARY, INFRA, TRANSP,COAL,GOLD,PIPELINE,FOOD,BONDFUND, HOSPITAL,JETS)Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/10/17 Bullish =35 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 100% 1 1 1 1 .923 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .833 .833 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 INFRA .818 .909 .909 .909 .818 .818 SOLAR .809 .857 .809 .809 .809 .809 NIFTY .8 .833 .833 .8 .8 .833 N=9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .781 .781 .718 .75 .75 .687 SEMI .769 .776 .807 .784 .8 .769 SP-100 .729 .76 .77 .791 .77 .75 ELECTRON .715 .72 .737 .726 .754 .731 OILGAS .715 .736 .736 .75 .777 .701 CHINA .703 .671 .687 .687 .703 .656 ETFS .692 .707 .784 .784 .784 .753 INDEXES .692 .651 .676 .682 .676 .625 MILITARY .684 .684 .789 .789 .789 .815 CHEM .676 .692 .723 .723 .738 .753 FOOD .666 .733 .733 .666 .6 .533 UTILITY .651 .697 .72 .697 .697 .72 SP500 .646 .652 .668 .662 .672 .66 GREEN .645 .612 .645 .774 .774 .741 GAMING .642 .642 .642 .5 .607 .535 HACKERS .64 .6 .64 .64 .64 .6 MORNSTAR .638 .642 .68 .642 .663 .651 NASD-100 .636 .636 .681 .659 .681 .659 RUS-1000 .623 .628 .643 .64 .66 .65 SOFTWARE .621 .621 .666 .621 .696 .696 AUTO .6 .6 .7 .7 .7 .725 FINANCE .597 .608 .63 .739 .815 .804 INDMATER .586 .619 .619 .652 .673 .673 COMODITY .577 .591 .591 .577 .619 .535 COMPUTER .565 .521 .521 .521 .565 .565 REIT .544 .522 .528 .488 .449 .421 N=26 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .5 .4 .35 .4 .45 .5 COAL .5 .375 .5 .625 .875 .75 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETAIL .471 .415 .32 .32 .396 .377 BIOTECH .434 .413 .444 .467 .545 .534 REGBANKS .363 .484 .545 .696 .848 .878 TRANSP .3 .3 .6 .65 .6 .6 GOLD .265 .306 .326 .285 .285 .224 JETS .222 .222 .333 .333 .333 .333 HOSPITAL .125 .125 .125 .125 0 0 BONDFUND .089 .169 .214 .187 .133 .08 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/9/2017 Take Some Trading Profits in the Over-extended Techs even though
the operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21 and
we will probably see more new DJI highs in December.
"Stocks tumbled on the news that the corporate rate cut may be delayed.",
wrote the NY Times tonight.
( https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/09/us/politics/facing-math-trouble-house-panel-races-to-adjust-tax-bill.html?emc=edit_th_20171110&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894 )
The DJI gapped down but could not close its gap. Many of the tech
and semi-conductors led the decline. Regional banks again sold off.
I think their investors are concerned about the possibility of some
big malls failing if major retailers have anything but a Christmas miracle.
Keep in mind that the FED has virtually guaranteed it would play the
role of Grinch and raise rates in December. Rising oil prices will boost
the CPI and this will give ample ammunition to the "hawks" on the FOMC.
Higher gas prices will also take money out of the typical shopper's pocket.
See - Retail apocalypse - Wikipedia
QuickSilver Sells in Over-Extended ETFs
I have advocated that traders use what I call the QuickSilver approach
when an ETF has had a good run. This involves watching for when the ETF
makes a 6-day low and drops below its 5-day ma pivot-point. When this
happens the 5-day ma turns down and Professional traders jump ship.
Selling at the exact tops and bottoms is not their goal. Instead, they exploit
the 5-day ma trends in volatile stocks and ETFs. Today, many important
ETFs closed below yesterday's pivot-point. The result is we now see
DIA, MDY, IWM, FAS, RETL, IBB and NVDA have falling (red) 5-day
ma trends in Table 1. In addition, COMPQX and SOXL closed below
today's pivot point. Only if there is a strong rally their 5-dma not turn
down at tomorrow's close.
Most likely the semi-conductors will recover after a week or so of
selling. But, traders should cash in on their excellent rises as they have now
dropped below their pivot-points. See Table 1 below and their charts. I warned
two nights ago that SOXL has reached a point 20% above its 20-day ma
and this was as overbought as it has been able to rise in 2017.
So, traders should now be ready to apply the Quicksilver rules to lock
in profits.
44% of November Peaks and Declines
Bring DJI Dips to between 1.5% and 5%
below the 21-day ma.
A normal, even benign, pullback which will take the DJI below the 21-day ma,
has probably started. But note that historically, a November decline usually
does not drop the DJI much below the 1% lower band. This was true in
56% of the cases since 1945.
The table below show the November peaks and deeper declines since 1945.
Altogether, there have been 25 instances of the DJI making new highs
in November since 1945. In 14 (56%) of these cases, the DJI did not drop below
the 21-day by the end of the year. In 7 of these is fell about halfway between
the 21-day ma and the lower 3.5% band. In other words, 28% of the time
a November top was followed by a decline to the 1.75% lower band. In
3 (12%) cases the DJI fell to the lower band (1950, 1982 and 1996). Only in one
instance did the DJI fall briefly below the lower band. That was in late November
1980 after there had been a Sell S9/S12 at the 4.9% upper band and then
a head/shoulders pattern had been completed.
November Peaks and Deeper Declines.
To below lower band
Peak Signal la/ma AROC P-I IP21 V-I OBVPct
11/20/1980 S9/S12 1.049 .572 -19 -.006 4 .309 (Very high interest rates)
To lower 3.5% band
Peak Signal la/ma AROC P-I IP21 V-I OBVPct
11/24/1950 1.03 .214 130 .111 118 .359 (Korean War Inchon Landing)
11/3/1982 1.059 1.886 411 .179 23 .339
11/25/1996 1.051 1.038 268 .195 35 .552
Our peak here
Peak Signal la/ma AROC P-I IP21 V-I OBVPct
11/7/2011 1.013 .408 65 .075 -70 .611
(very low) (weaker)
Charts 11/9/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/9/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/9/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/09/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.72 -.74 W235.18 -5.1% ---- ---- .199 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6750.05 -39.07 W6764.44 26% Bullish BLUE .167 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.17 -.94 W258.45 11.2% Bullish BLUE .286 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.69 -.81 153.27 61.3% Bullish BLUE .348 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.25 -1.65 W333.86 -11.5% Bullish BLUE .2 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.68 -.52 148.61 -68.6% Bearish BLUE -.02 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.55 -.48 W61.48 -191.3% ---- BLUE .125 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.71 1.15 W25.16 -144.6% Bearish BLUE -.126 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 154.29 -10 W156.44 181.4% Bullish RED .426 .515 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.45 -2.56 110.32 117% Bullish BLUE .362 .208 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 311.04 -1.76 W316.87 -16.2% Bearish ---- -.192 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.13 .04 5.92 273.7% Bullish ---- .317 .227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 26 .13 24.76 293.4% Bullish BLUE .089 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 26.47 1 23.97 651.3% Bullish BLUE .293 .614 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.67 -.16 32.24 84.4% Bullish ---- .504 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.56 -.1 W24.69 -14.2% Bearish RED .031 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.37 -.04 106.37 8% Bullish BLUE .039 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17 -.23 W17.32 -115.6% Bearish RED -.201 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.25 -.01 W6.28 -31.8% Bullish ---- .029 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.59 .11 33.39 126.8% Bearish ---- .075 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.4 -.01 21.78 92.6% Bearish ---- -.156 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 175.88 -.36 172.5 224.3% Bullish BLUE .263 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1031.26 -8.59 W1032.48 27.5% Bullish BLUE -.019 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.09 -.47 W84.14 2.4% Bearish ---- -.059 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1129.13 -3.75 1111.6 156.3% Bullish BLUE .201 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.3 -.26 178.92 10.6% Bearish BLUE .161 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 205.32 -3.84 W208.69 -14.8% Bullish BLUE .341 .167 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 262.7 -2.87 261.75 1.3% Bullish RED .022 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 240.79 -.46 W244.4 -125.2% Bearish BLUE -.004 .01
Table 2 COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/9 11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23
NEWHIGHS 157 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200
NEWLOWS 93 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 171 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125
MINCPs 130 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 82 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53
TTTNLs 297 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 209 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86
FASTDOWN 250 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158Table 3 Count of New Highs in Key Directories Date = 171109 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 5 29 % BEVERAGE 20 3 15 % ------------------------------------------------------------------ EDU 7 1 14 % UTILITY 43 5 12 % GAMING 28 3 11 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % CHINA 64 6 9 % ETFS 65 5 8 % INDEXES 196 10 5 % NASD-100 88 4 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % FINANCE 92 4 4 % MORNSTAR 238 9 4 % BIOTECH 387 15 4 % RUS-1000 842 36 4 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % RETAIL 53 2 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % NIFTY 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % SEMI 130 4 3 % OILGAS 144 4 3 % SP500 486 17 3 % CHEM 65 1 2 % ELECTRON 179 4 2 % REIT 179 3 2 % SP-100 96 1 1 % INDMATER 91 1 1 % COMODITY 71 1 1 % BONDFUND 112 1 1 % ------------------------------------------------- NONE: BIGBANKS BIGMIL AUTO DJI-13 HACKERS SOFTWARE INFRA TRANSP COAL GOLD PIPELINE FOOD HOSPITAL JETS
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/9/17 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 100% 1 1 1 .923 .923 INFRA .909 .909 .909 .818 .818 .818 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 .764 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .833 .833 .833 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 .714 SOLAR .857 .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 NIFTY .833 .833 .8 .8 .833 .9 N=9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .781 .718 .75 .75 .687 .718 SEMI .776 .807 .784 .8 .776 .784 SP-100 .76 .77 .791 .77 .739 .739 OILGAS .736 .736 .75 .777 .701 .68 FOOD .733 .733 .666 .6 .533 .533 ELECTRON .72 .737 .726 .754 .743 .754 ETFS .707 .784 .784 .784 .769 .784 UTILITY .697 .72 .697 .697 .72 .697 CHEM .692 .723 .723 .738 .753 .784 MILITARY .684 .789 .789 .789 .815 .815 CHINA .671 .687 .687 .703 .656 .64 INDEXES .653 .678 .683 .678 .627 .632 SP500 .652 .668 .662 .672 .658 .67 GAMING .642 .642 .5 .607 .535 .571 MORNSTAR .642 .68 .642 .663 .651 .659 NASD-100 .636 .681 .659 .681 .67 .659 RUS-1000 .628 .643 .64 .66 .649 .647 INDMATER .626 .626 .659 .681 .681 .714 SOFTWARE .621 .666 .621 .696 .696 .696 GREEN .612 .645 .774 .774 .709 .741 FINANCE .608 .63 .739 .815 .804 .836 HACKERS .6 .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 COMODITY .591 .591 .577 .619 .535 .549 AUTO .589 .692 .692 .692 .717 .769 COMPUTER .521 .521 .521 .565 .565 .565 REIT .519 .525 .486 .446 .413 .446 N=26 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGBANKS .484 .545 .696 .848 .878 .909 RETAIL .415 .32 .32 .396 .377 .433 BIOTECH .413 .444 .467 .545 .54 .48 BEVERAGE .4 .35 .4 .45 .5 .5 COAL .375 .5 .625 .875 .75 .75 GOLD .306 .326 .285 .285 .224 .244 TRANSP .3 .6 .65 .6 .6 .7 JETS .222 .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 BONDFUND .169 .214 .187 .133 .08 .08 HOSPITAL .125 .125 .125 0 0 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=11
=======================================================================
11/8/2017
The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
That there recently has been more MINCPs than MAXCPs and the
NYSE AD/Line is lagging the DJI amplifies the need to be selective
in stock and ETF selection. It also show the desirability of being
hedged.
For some time, all one has had to do to make money in the market has been to be
long SOXL and the bullish MAXCP stocks and short RETL and the Bearish MINCPs.
like BBBY.
The way these trends are continuing, we see that trend-playing Professionals are perfectly in
control. It's true, though, that Bank stocks have recently turned down somewhat
inexplicably. This has to be of some concern short-term. But is the big tax cut really
in jeopardy?
The Professionals watch this news. They see the parrying back and forth between the
Republicans and Democrats for control of Congress and conclude that they are
not very important now. The big thing in their mind is that there will be, either this
year or next, a big tax cut that will benefit the very wealthy who own most stocks.
The Republican Congressional majority may tinker with some of the deductions on
the margins, but the heart of the tax bill will remain unchanged. Wall Street just does
not expect to be disappointed. This year or next, there will be a big tax reduction for
the very wealthy and for corporations wishing to repatriate their overseas profits.
See the NY Times article tonight.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/us/politics/senate-republicans-will-diverge-from-house-in-sweeping-tax-rewrite.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
With the DJI-30, SP-500, OEX and NASDAQ rising month after month, the economy is
steadily improving. Bullishly, there has been no big increase in the number of Sectors with the
majority of their stocks below the 65-dma for months. So, simply holding the bullish Quicksilver
ETFs plus the strongest Bullish MAXCPs and shorting some of our Bearish MINCPs
as a hedge continues to work. When it's not broke, don't fix it. Or as JFK said,
"When it's not necessary to change, it necessary not to change".
The 3 Most Bullish (Highest Power Ranked) Semi-Conductor Stocks
The 3 Most Bearish (Lowest Power Ranked) Retail Stock Stocks
Charts 11/8/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/8/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/8/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/8/17
Bullish Across-the Board Blue = COMPQX, QQQ, SOXL, TECL, GASL, UGA, AAPL, GOOG, AMZNBearish Across-the Board Red = IWM, RETLQUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/08/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 235.46 .04 234.96 27% ---- BLUE .195 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6789.12 21.34 6714.94 53.8% Bullish BLUE .201 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 259.11 .44 257.59 31.4% Bullish BLUE .275 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 154.5 .62 151.81 78.4% Bullish BLUE .32 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.9 .82 333.02 17.4% Bullish BLUE .204 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 147.2 .2 W148.71 -36.1% Bearish BLUE -.054 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.03 -.39 W61.89 -46.5% Bearish RED .118 .127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.56 .13 W25.42 -200% Bearish BLUE -.188 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 164.29 1.64 148.52 569.6% Bullish BLUE .493 .699 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 113.01 1.82 107.86 245.5% Bullish BLUE .34 .258 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 312.8 -1.22 312.06 9.7% Bearish RED -.221 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.09 -.06 5.8 310.7% Bullish ---- .363 .194 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.87 -.02 24.51 276.7% ---- BLUE .09 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 25.47 -.73 23.2 255.6% Bullish BLUE .292 .55 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.83 .08 32.12 224.6% Bullish BLUE .558 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.66 -.01 24.63 6.1% Bearish ---- .01 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.41 -.13 106.2 16.5% Bullish RED .074 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.23 -.04 W17.4 -17.3% ---- ---- -.149 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.26 -.03 W6.29 63.8% Bullish ---- .015 -.104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.48 .17 33.73 181.1% ---- BLUE .086 .079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.41 .17 21.99 95.2% Bearish ---- -.118 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 176.24 1.43 168.11 272.9% Bullish BLUE .235 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1039.85 6.52 1025.58 69.8% Bullish BLUE .002 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.56 .29 84.05 82.1% ---- BLUE -.065 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1132.88 9.71 1094.22 131.5% Bullish BLUE .188 .11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.56 -.69 178.92 -86% Bearish RED .159 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 209.16 -2.87 205.94 47% Bullish RED .345 .193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 265.57 -.56 262.63 134.6% Bullish RED .066 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 241.25 1.44 W246.88 -61.7% Bearish BLUE -.011 .02
Table 2 COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/8 11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20
NEWHIGHS 324 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533
NEWLOWS 93 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 188 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258
MINCPs 145 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 83 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78
TTTNLs 278 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 208 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82
FASTDOWN 259 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171108 Total NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY 30 12 40 % GAMING 28 9 32 % HOMEBLDG 17 5 29 % SOLAR 21 6 29 % ETFS 65 13 20 % HACKERS 25 5 20 % UTILITY 43 8 19 % INDEXES 196 35 18 % NASD-100 88 15 17 % SEMI 130 21 16 % ==================================================== CHINA 64 9 14 % GREEN 31 4 13 % DOWJONES 30 4 13 % ELECTRON 179 21 12 % SOFTWARE 66 8 12 % SP500 486 54 11 % MORNSTAR 238 23 10 % RUS-1000 842 82 10 % BEVERAGE 20 2 10 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % REIT 179 17 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % SP-100 96 8 8 % CHEM 65 4 6 % RETAIL 54 3 6 % AUTO 39 2 5 % INDMATER 92 5 5 % BIOTECH 387 14 4 % COMODITY 71 3 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % OILGAS 144 4 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % FINANCE 92 1 1 % --------------------------------------------------- None BIGBANKS BIGMIL INFRA TRANSP COAL GOLD EDU PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETS
======================================================
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/9/17 Bullish =37 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 1 1 1 .923 .923 .923 INFRA .909 .909 .818 .818 .818 .818 HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .823 .823 .764 .882 DOWJONES .866 .866 .833 .833 .833 .8 EDU .857 .857 .857 .714 .714 .714 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .5 NIFTY .833 .8 .8 .833 .9 .866 SEMI .815 .784 .8 .776 .784 .746 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 N=10 ============================================================================================ MILITARY .789 .789 .789 .815 .815 .763 ETFS .784 .784 .784 .769 .784 .784 SP-100 .77 .791 .77 .739 .739 .729 ELECTRON .737 .726 .754 .743 .754 .731 OILGAS .736 .75 .777 .701 .687 .708FOOD .733 .666 .6 .533 .533 .6 CHEM .723 .723 .738 .753 .784 .753 UTILITY .72 .697 .697 .72 .697 .627 INSURANC .718 .75 .75 .687 .718 .718 AUTO .692 .692 .692 .717 .769 .769CHINA .687 .687 .703 .656 .64 .718 NASD-100 .681 .659 .681 .67 .659 .704 MORNSTAR .68 .642 .663 .651 .659 .663 INDEXES .678 .683 .678 .627 .632 .642 SP500 .668 .662 .672 .658 .67 .672SOFTWARE .666 .621 .696 .696 .681 .757 GREEN .645 .774 .774 .709 .741 .741 RUS-1000 .643 .64 .66 .649 .647 .65 GAMING .642 .5 .607 .535 .571 .642 HACKERS .64 .64 .64 .6 .6 .64FINANCE .63 .739 .815 .804 .836 .793 INDMATER .619 .652 .673 .673 .706 .695 TRANSP .6 .65 .6 .6 .7 .65 COMODITY .591 .577 .619 .535 .549 .549 REGBANKS .545 .696 .848 .878 .909 .878REIT .525 .486 .446 .413 .446 .402 COMPUTER .521 .521 .565 .565 .565 .695 N=27 ============================================================================================== COAL .5 .625 .875 .75 .75 .75 ============================================================================================== BIOTECH .444 .467 .545 .54 .488 .498 BEVERAGE .35 .4 .45 .5 .5 .45 JETS .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 .444 RETAIL .333 .333 .407 .388 .444 .37 GOLD .32 .28 .28 .22 .24 .22 BONDFUND .214 .187 .133 .08 .071 .053 HOSPITAL .125 .125 0 0 .25 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 .142 N= 8
=================================================================================
11/7/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
But the deteriorating NYSE breadth and the more numerous MINCPs than MAXCPs
show us the need to be very selective and the value in shorting some of our Bearish
MINCPs as a hedge.
The extreme bullishness of the coming tax cuts for the super-rich can be seen by how
much the Dow Jones rose after the early-1926 Coolidge dropping of the top
rates from 46% to 25%, after JFK in 1963 brought about the first big drop in
top bracket income taxes in 35 years, from 90% to 70%, and after Reagan in steps
caused these rates to drop all the way from 68% to 28%. See the table in this link.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/gop-tax-rate-cut-wealthy/
But the DJI has now been rising every month since Trump's
election victory. So most of the bullishness that a drop in taxes on the
the small sector of the population that own the majority of all stocks has likely
been discounted. The question, of course, is how much?
For many months, my answer has been that we are apt to see still higher prices
so long as the Federal Funds' interest rates stay below 3%. ( If they were to rise
above 10%, of course, the market would fall. This was what happened in 1981
and 1984.)
Our chart of short-interest rates shows the upswing in progress. But Interest Rates should
be able to stay safely below 3% until mid-2018. That's my guess. We do see
oil prices rising, but the Dollar is not showing much weakness right now. Its 65-dma
is actually rising.
The conclusion that this market "has legs" still is supported by the way Buy B21s are most
often not reversed un the Spring of the next year and how generally ineffective
even Sell S9s in January.
So, until Peerless gives a Sell, I think we have to let the DJI works its way higher.
However, if it were to spike up to the 3.5% band, I would probably suggest selling.
The rest of the market is much more mixed. We see lots of signs that the majority
of stocks are weakening even as the DJI inches upwards. IWM rates an across-the
board Red Bearish rating in the Quicksilver Table 1. This is ETF representing 2000
stocks. IBB (Biotechs) continues to suffer from the same bearish forces. Now we must
watch IBB to see if it can hold up above its still-rising longer-term moving averages,
Note that a really weak IBB will weaken the NASDAQ and is likely to cause more
profit-taking in our favorite biotech, SPPI. (See below) The Falling Closing Powers
and negative IP21 readings there represent net Professional Selling and insider Sellling.
We cannot ruleout a breakdown below support. The Closing Power for IBB will
first need to break its downtrend.
I should add that the rising interest rates are hurting dividend-paying REITs and slowing down
even HD in the DJI-30 and the hot-homebuilders. It's not clear why the Big Banks are
under selling pressure. Watch them. They led the market down in 2007-2008. We don't
want to see that 10 years later.
Elsewhere, the rising oil prices are slowing down the airlines, but will certainly be a lift
for CVX and XOM in the DJI-30 if they continue to go higher. In addition, within the
DJI-30, we now see bullish across-the-board Blue QuickSilver readings for high-priced
BA and AAPL. They are likely to continue to prop up the DJI even though NYSE declines
have regularly started to outnumber their advancers.
Semi-Conductors are getting over-bought, it's true. SOXL has tagged its 20% upper band.
This is what caused its short-term sell-offs in December and May, as well as in June
when its retreat was longer. With its breakout above its uptrend-resistance, aggressive
very short-term traders will be attracted to it. Following the pattern of a number of
the most bullishly ranked leveraged ETFs with very high IP21 readings, it could easily
spike up crazily to 200. So, I would only sell it if we see a clear-cut reversal day. These
occur when there is an upside gap at the opening on very high volume and it closes
at the lows for the day. Traders should probably anticipate this and sell if it opens way
up and the drops below the previous day's close.
Charts 11/7/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/7/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/7/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/7/17
Bullish Across-the Board Blue = QQQ, SOXL, AAPL, BA, NVDABearish Across-the Board Red = IWM, RETLETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 235.42 .01 234.19 38.1% ---- RED .195 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6767.78 -18.66 6716.53 29.7% ---- RED .162 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.67 -.18 257.49 29.5% Bullish RED .251 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.88 .09 152.1 56.7% Bullish BLUE .293 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.08 -2.11 332.74 -8.1% ---- RED .165 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 147 -1.78 W148.27 -76% Bearish RED -.101 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.42 -1.51 W60.6 5.7% Bearish RED .137 .12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.43 -1.78 W24.55 -214.3% Bearish RED -.339 -.104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 162.65 -.45 146.58 481.6% Bullish BLUE .487 .691 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 111.19 .25 107.63 158.9% Bullish RED .304 .248 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 314.02 -1.57 312.19 -2.5% Bearish RED -.202 -.089 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.15 -.03 5.72 349.1% Bullish ---- .44 .193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.89 -.04 24.48 332.9% ---- RED .064 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 26.2 -.47 24.2 752.4% Bullish RED .288 .586 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.75 -.15 31.38 251.9% Bullish ---- .565 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.67 .04 24.63 18.3% Bearish ---- -.019 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.54 .04 106.06 17.9% Bullish ---- .069 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.27 0 W17.29 17.3% Bearish ---- -.155 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.29 -.03 6.18 72% Bullish ---- -.019 -.097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.31 .61 33.26 251.9% ---- RED .093 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.24 -.04 21.99 102.4% Bearish RED -.078 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 174.81 .56 166.89 169.5% Bullish BLUE .185 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1033.33 7.43 1025.5 81.4% Bullish BLUE -.021 .051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.27 -.2 83.18 65% Bearish RED -.112 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1123.17 2.51 1103.68 80.8% Bullish RED .158 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 180.25 .08 W182.66 5.3% Bearish RED .156 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 212.03 2.4 207.2 125.7% Bullish BLUE .303 .205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 266.13 2.06 258.5 156.1% Bullish BLUE .138 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 239.81 -3.68 W244.26 -54.6% Bearish RED -.038 .008Table 2 COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/7 11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18
NEWHIGHS 255 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381
NEWLOWS 103 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 114 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154
MINCPs 213 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 67 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88
TTTNLs 352 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 187 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68
FASTDOWN 259 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 17.11.07 No. in Sector NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY30 30 9 30 % UTILITY 43 13 30 % GAMING 28 8 29 % DJI-13 13 3 23 % HOMEBLDG 17 3 18 % INFRA 11 2 18 % BIGMIL 6 1 17 % DOWJONES 30 5 17 % ETFS 65 11 17 % CHINA 64 11 17 % ====================================================== EDU 7 1 14 % INDEXES 196 24 12 % SP500 486 53 11 % SP-100 96 10 10 % RUS-1000 842 84 10 % NASD-100 88 9 10 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % ELECTRON 179 16 9 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % SEMI 123 10 8 % REIT 179 13 7 % GREEN 31 2 6 % CHEM 65 4 6 % OILGAS 144 8 6 % AUTO 39 2 5 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % INDMATER 92 5 5 % MORNSTAR 238 11 5 % SOFTWARE 66 3 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % HACKERS 25 1 4 % BIOTECH 387 14 4 % RETAIL 54 1 2 % FINANCE 92 1 1 % COMODITY 71 1 1 % ------------------------------------------------ None: BIGBANKS REGBANKS COAL GOLD PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETSTable 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/7/17 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 100% 1 .923 .923 .923 .923 INFRA .909 .818 .818 .818 .818 .909 DOWJONES .866 .833 .833 .833 .8 .833 EDU .857 .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .833 .5 .666 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .823 .764 .882 .882 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 SEMI .804 .829 .804 .813 .78 .796 NIFTY .8 .8 .833 .9 .866 .9 N=10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SP-100 .791 .77 .739 .739 .729 .739 MILITARY .789 .789 .815 .815 .763 .763 ETFS .784 .784 .769 .784 .784 .753 GREEN .774 .774 .709 .741 .741 .774 INSURANC .75 .75 .687 .718 .718 .781 OILGAS .75 .777 .701 .687 .701 .666 FINANCE .739 .815 .804 .836 .793 .804 ELECTRON .726 .754 .743 .754 .743 .759 CHEM .723 .738 .753 .784 .753 .753 UTILITY .697 .697 .72 .697 .627 .72 REGBANKS .696 .848 .878 .909 .878 .909 AUTO .692 .692 .717 .769 .794 .769 CHINA .687 .703 .656 .64 .718 .64 INDEXES .683 .678 .627 .632 .647 .642 FOOD .666 .6 .533 .533 .533 .6 SP500 .662 .672 .658 .67 .672 .681 NASD-100 .659 .681 .67 .659 .704 .681 INDMATER .652 .673 .673 .706 .695 .695 TRANSP .65 .6 .6 .7 .65 .65 MORNSTAR .642 .663 .651 .659 .663 .668 HACKERS .64 .64 .6 .6 .64 .8 RUS-1000 .64 .66 .649 .647 .65 .66 COAL .625 .875 .75 .75 .75 .875 SOFTWARE .621 .696 .696 .681 .757 .833 COMODITY .577 .619 .535 .549 .549 .535 COMPUTER .521 .565 .565 .565 .695 .695 N=26 ================================================================================================ GAMING .5 .607 .535 .571 .642 .642 ================================================================================================ REIT .486 .446 .413 .446 .402 .335 BIOTECH .467 .545 .54 .488 .503 .514 BEVERAGE .4 .45 .5 .5 .45 .55 JETS .333 .333 .333 .333 .444 .222 RETAIL .333 .407 .388 .444 .37 .407 GOLD .28 .28 .22 .24 .22 .16 BONDFUND .187 .133 .08 .071 .044 .089 HOSPITAL .125 0 0 .25 .25 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 .142 0 N=9
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
11/6/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
Professionals are switching their funds slowly from DIA and SPY. They are redeploying funds
very aggressively into the red hot tech sectors. See in the charts' section below, the jumps made by
SOXL, TECL and QQQ into all-time high ground. The buy-out bid for Qualcomm has heated up
their rally. I don't expect the Feds to try to stop this effort of concentrate economic power here.
If anything, there will be more mergers, just as there were in the 1980s and this will continue even
longer because interest rates are much lower and the Trump Administration is so clearly anti-regulation.
Hold your long tech positions tightly and be ready to cover short sales in any MINCP stocks whose
Closing Power breaks its long downtrendline. .
Watch the news on Qualcomm.
Will Broadcomm be allowed by the Trump Administration to take over San Diego
chip maker Qualcomm? Qualcomm's Board of Directors is not happy with the
current offer. If Broadcomm succeeds, there are apt to be many other
buy-outs, all of which would be a big stimulus to stock prices, especially in the red-hot
semi-conductor field. This will be reminiscent of the mid-1980s. Only extremes of
Junk Bond financing and insider trading scandals stopped the Tax Cut Reagan
bull market. But at that time, interest rates were much higher. The Federal Funds Rate
was close to 6% in 1986.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/business/dealbook/broadcom-qualcomm-merger.html?emc=edit_th_20171107&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
Charts 11/6/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/6/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
1924-1926 Bull Market
set off by Big Republican Tax Cut
Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/6/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point.
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/6/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 235.41 .23 233.63 44.4% ---- BLUE .182 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6786.44 22 6727.67 65% ---- BLUE .161 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.85 .4 257.15 40.8% ---- BLUE .247 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.79 .52 152.15 72.6% Bullish BLUE .267 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 335.19 1.33 333.62 50.1% Bullish BLUE .154 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.78 .17 W149.26 19.2% Bearish ---- -.085 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.93 .45 60.35 119.8% Bullish BLUE .151 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.21 .05 24.5 165.3% Bearish RED -.289 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 163.1 6.66 147.96 617.8% Bullish BLUE .486 .71 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.94 .62 107.73 206.9% Bullish BLUE .266 .258 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 315.59 -1.28 314.18 -17% Bearish RED -.2 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.18 .26 5.74 406.7% Bullish BLUE .451 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.93 1.17 24.24 381% ---- BLUE .094 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 26.67 2.7 22.57 1065.4% Bullish BLUE .289 .561 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.9 .66 31.14 328.1% Bullish BLUE .536 .147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.63 -.06 24.58 14.2% Bearish RED -.012 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.5 .13 106.16 12.7% Bullish ---- .08 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.27 -.05 17.21 -23.1% Bearish RED -.161 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.32 .04 6.2 40% ---- ---- -.086 -.104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.7 .31 32.63 205.6% Bullish BLUE .114 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.28 .5 21.79 52.5% ---- BLUE -.022 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 174.25 1.75 169.04 223.2% Bullish BLUE .156 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1025.9 -6.58 1016.64 42.9% Bullish RED -.075 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.47 .33 83.18 34.7% ---- BLUE -.095 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1120.66 9.06 1105.28 44.4% Bullish BLUE .149 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 180.17 1.25 180.06 8.3% Bearish BLUE .113 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 209.63 .94 206.81 140.2% Bullish BLUE .306 .2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 264.07 2.32 257.98 92.7% Bullish BLUE .138 .04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 243.49 -.91 242.48 53.3% Bearish ---- -.033 .015
Table 3
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/6 11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17
NEWHIGHS 466 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238
NEWLOWS 96 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 164 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125
MINCPs 136 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 95 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65
TTTNLs 218 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 239 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 194 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/6/17Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 100% .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 COAL .875 .75 .75 .75 .875 .875 EDU .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 REGBANKS .848 .878 .909 .878 .909 .909 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 .5 .666 .833 DOWJONES .833 .833 .833 .8 .833 .833 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .764 .882 .882 .823 INFRA .818 .818 .818 .818 .909 .818 FINANCE .815 .804 .836 .793 .804 .826 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .809 .809 .761 NIFTY .8 .833 .9 .866 .9 .866 SEMI .8 .776 .784 .753 .776 .753 N= 14 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILITARY .789 .815 .815 .763 .763 .763 ETFS .784 .769 .784 .784 .753 .707 OILGAS .783 .706 .692 .706 .671 .622 GREEN .774 .709 .741 .741 .774 .838 SP-100 .77 .739 .739 .729 .729 .75 ELECTRON .754 .743 .754 .743 .759 .731 INSURANC .75 .687 .718 .718 .781 .812 CHEM .738 .753 .784 .753 .753 .753 CHINA .703 .656 .64 .718 .64 .578 UTILITY .697 .72 .697 .627 .72 .744 SOFTWARE .696 .696 .681 .757 .833 .818 AUTO .692 .717 .769 .794 .769 .717 NASD-100 .681 .67 .659 .704 .681 .693 INDEXES .678 .627 .632 .647 .647 .658 INDMATER .673 .673 .706 .695 .695 .717 SP500 .672 .658 .67 .672 .679 .681 MORNSTAR .663 .651 .659 .663 .668 .63 RUS-1000 .66 .649 .647 .65 .659 .663 HACKERS .64 .6 .6 .64 .8 .8 COMODITY .619 .535 .549 .549 .535 .549 GAMING .607 .535 .571 .642 .642 .607 FOOD .6 .533 .533 .533 .6 .533 TRANSP .6 .6 .7 .65 .6 .65 COMPUTER .565 .565 .565 .695 .695 .565 BIOTECH .545 .54 .488 .503 .516 .511 N= 24 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .45 .5 .5 .45 .55 .5 REIT .446 .413 .446 .402 .34 .34 RETAIL .407 .388 .444 .37 .407 .425 JETS .333 .333 .333 .444 .222 .333 GOLD .28 .22 .24 .22 .16 .2 BONDFUND .133 .08 .071 .044 .089 .062 HOSPITAL 0 0 .25 .25 .25 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 0 .142 0 0 N=8
=======================================================================
11/3/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
But for the second day in a row the DJI advanced but there were more up than
down on the NYSE. The technical result is that the DJI is now 1.6% over
the 21-day with the P-Indicator now only slightly positive. It stands at only +6.
But because of the very negative data (-798) that is being dropped off from
the P-Indicator 21 days ago, the P-I cannot easily turn negative tomorrow. So,
do not try to anticipate a Sell here.
Weak breadth at this stage could be a warning about the general market. But
even the MINCPs outnumbering the MAXCPs will necessarily bring an immediate
DJI top or turn down the elite stocks at the top of the performance pyramid. To
stop this bull market, we will technically need to see much bigger divergences
and internal contradictions. Understand that a tax cut, however, it's crafted
will bring about an increased budget deficit. There usually boost stocks and the
economy, at least until the FED hikes interest rates much higher than they are now.
Nothing I have read indicates that the new Fed Chairman for next year will be
another super-hawk like Paul Volcker was between 1978 and 1984.
Fed-Chrmn-to-be-Powell's biography
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/02/business/economy/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-trump.html
Distrust November S9s.
The new Peerless book (due very soon) allows us to see how well previous Peerless
Sells with similar key values did. I would start off such a historical search by looking
at signals for the same month. You can see below that there have only been four November
since 1928. Two of the four produced small losses when employed 2.4% or 2.7%
over the 21-dma. Three of the four had negative IP21. This is not true now. If we do
get a Sell S9, I would not put a lot of faith in unless the DJI closes much farther up
from the 21-day ma.
SOXL (see below) remains the top QuickSilver ranked ETF. Along with TECL, QQQ and OIL,
it shows bullish across-the-board Blue Quicksilver colors and features a very
high IP21 reading of +.461. Holding this and some of very bullish MAXCPs long and short
about 1/3rd or 1/4th as many Bearish MINCP is my sense about how to playing the market
now.
November S9s since 1928. DJI Gain Maximum Paper Loss 19321114 S9 65.6 .084 none 0 la/ma = 1.048, AROC=1.108, PI=13, -4, IP21=.128, V=66, OP=.18, 65-dayCh= -.055 19801114 S9 986.35 .071 1000.17 -.014 11/20 la/ma = 1.042, AROC=0.175, PI=-93, -9, IP21=-.110, V=-1, OP=.192, 65-dayCh= .039 20091113 S9 10270.47 -.020 10471.5 -.020 12/01 la/ma = 1.027, AROC=0.247, PI=-122, +66, IP21=-.007, V=-216, OP=.085, 65-dayCh= .092 20161109 S9 18589.69 -.029 19121.6 -.029 11/29 la/ma = 1.024, AROC=0.303, PI=-132,+121, IP21=-.022, V=-59, OP=-.158, 65-dayCh= .003
Charts 11/3/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/3/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/3/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/3/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 235.18 .22 233.33 21.6% ---- RED .194 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6764.44 49.5 6698.96 47.1% ---- BLUE .169 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 258.45 .86 256.75 14.4% Bearish BLUE .231 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.27 1.46 151.58 66.9% Bullish BLUE .268 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.86 .84 331.85 -5.9% Bullish BLUE .156 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.61 -.1 148.21 -39.6% Bearish BLUE -.066 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.48 -.41 60.47 37.8% ---- ---- .137 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.16 -.26 24.39 -100.4% Bearish BLUE -.29 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 156.44 7.92 144.71 447.3% Bullish BLUE .461 .611 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 110.32 2.46 106.47 231.8% Bullish BLUE .257 .247 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 316.87 4.81 316.66 11.9% Bearish BLUE -.167 -.068 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.92 .12 5.71 200.6% Bullish BLUE .365 .118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.76 .25 24.07 225.3% Bearish BLUE -.007 .051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 23.97 .77 21.74 590.7% ---- BLUE .113 .378 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.24 .12 30.83 209.4% Bullish ---- .483 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.69 .06 24.56 2% ---- BLUE -.013 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.37 .17 106.23 24.5% Bullish ---- .096 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.32 -.08 W17.35 -5.8% Bearish ---- -.112 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.28 -.01 6.27 -16% Bullish ---- -.085 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.39 -.34 32.34 -69.4% ---- RED .118 .097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.78 -.21 W22.05 -47.8% Bearish RED -.142 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 172.5 4.39 166.72 283.3% Bullish RED .145 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1032.48 6.9 1017.11 64.7% Bullish BLUE -.01 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.14 .09 83.89 19.7% ---- ---- -.081 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1111.6 17.38 1110.85 48.3% Bullish BLUE .149 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.92 0 W179.87 28.9% Bearish RED .119 -.014 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 208.69 2.75 203.84 166.5% Bullish BLUE .298 .183 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 261.75 -.88 259.25 102.1% Bullish RED .169 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 244.4 -2.48 240.89 55.3% Bearish RED-.034 .016
Table 2 COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
Professionals and day-traders are more bearish than bullish in broader market,
but excess of new highs over new lows shows that momentum-players are still
3 times more bullish than bearish. A ratio of 3 longs to one short might seem
appropriate for a hedged portfolio.
11/3 11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16
NEWHIGHS 360 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423
NEWLOWS 112 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 140 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137
MINCPs 180 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 71 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63
TTTNLs 311 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 190 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 214 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166
Table 3 Percent of Stocks in Various Directories Making New Highs Date = 171103 No.in Sector NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY 30 10 33 % EDU 7 2 29 % DJI-13 13 3 23 % DOWJONES 30 7 23 % SOLAR 21 4 19 % GAMING 28 5 18 % INDEXES 211 38 18 % SEMI 130 21 16 % NASD-100 88 14 16 % SP-100 96 14 15 % SOFTWARE 66 10 15 % =================================================================== UTILITY 43 6 14 % GREEN 31 4 13 % ELECTRON 179 23 13 % INSURANC 32 4 13 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % SP500 486 51 10 % RUS-1000 842 88 10 % FINANCE 92 8 9 % ETFS 65 6 9 % MORNSTAR 238 22 9 % INFRA 11 1 9 % AUTO 39 3 8 % CHEM 65 5 8 % HACKERS 25 2 8 % INDMATER 92 6 7 % BIOTECH 388 29 7 % COMODITY 70 5 7 % RETAIL 54 3 6 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % CHINA 64 3 5 % REIT 179 9 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % OILGAS 144 6 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % -------------------------------------------------------- None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL HOMEBLDG TRANSP COAL GOAL GOLD EDU PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETSRANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/3/17Bullish = 38 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 REGBANKS .878 .909 .878 .909 .909 .939 BIGMIL .833 .833 .5 .666 .833 .833 DOWJONES .833 .833 .8 .833 .833 .866 NIFTY .833 .9 .866 .9 .866 .866 HOMEBLDG .823 .764 .882 .882 .823 .882 INFRA .818 .818 .818 .909 .818 .909 MILITARY .815 .815 .763 .763 .763 .815 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .809 .761 .761 FINANCE .804 .836 .793 .804 .826 .836 SEMI .776 .784 .753 .776 .753 .753 ETFS .769 .784 .784 .753 .707 .738 CHEM .753 .784 .753 .753 .753 .846 COAL .75 .75 .75 .875 .875 .875 ELECTRON .743 .754 .743 .759 .737 .765 SP-100 .739 .739 .729 .729 .739 .75 UTILITY .72 .697 .627 .72 .744 .72 AUTO .717 .769 .794 .769 .717 .871 EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 GREEN .709 .741 .741 .774 .838 .87 OILGAS .701 .687 .701 .666 .625 .576 SOFTWARE .696 .681 .757 .833 .803 .818 INSURANC .687 .718 .718 .781 .812 .781 INDMATER .673 .706 .695 .695 .717 .728 NASD-100 .67 .659 .704 .681 .681 .693 SP500 .658 .67 .672 .679 .681 .703 CHINA .656 .64 .718 .64 .593 .656 MORNSTAR .651 .659 .663 .668 .63 .668 INDEXES .649 .654 .668 .668 .677 .658 RUS-1000 .649 .647 .65 .659 .662 .685 HACKERS .6 .6 .64 .8 .8 .68 TRANSP .6 .7 .65 .6 .65 .7 COMPUTER .565 .565 .695 .695 .565 .608 BIOTECH .538 .487 .502 .515 .507 .528 GAMING .535 .571 .642 .642 .607 .607 FOOD .533 .533 .533 .6 .533 .533 COMODITY .528 .542 .542 .528 .542 .528 Bullish = 38 ============================================================================================= BEVERAGE .5 .5 .45 .55 .5 .45 ============================================================================================= REIT .413 .446 .402 .34 .34 .407 RETAIL .388 .444 .37 .407 .425 .5 JETS .333 .333 .444 .222 .333 .222 GOLD .22 .24 .22 .16 .2 .16 BONDFUND .08 .071 .044 .089 .071 .044 HOSPITAL 0 .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 .142 0 0 0 Bearish = 8
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
11/2/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21. The DJI
rose 80+ but there were more down than up on the NYSE. This is what starts
to happen in an aging bull market. Aggressive fund managers see the best
performing DJI-blue chips as the most obvious and easily rationalized place
to park new funds. And sure enough, the six highest priced DJI-30 stocks all
rose by more than a point today. The big winner was Boeing, the highest priced
component. It rose more than 4. Blue chip investors are very excited at the
likelihood that they will soon be getting a $1 trillion tax break and now
be able to freely repatriate years of profits that they had sheltered overseas.
Not surprisingly, the blue chip-DJI seems about to break into new all-time high
ground even though we can see from the market's own statistics that there is not
enough aggressive bullish funding yet for the NASDAQ and the SP-500 to come
along for the ride. The SP-500 advanced less than an 1/2 a point today and the
NASDAQ actually fell.
Discussion of the proposed tax-holiday for repatriated corporate profits has deliberately
been very muted. As this is very important, let's see what develops.
See http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-corporate-holiday-repatriation-rate-economy-2017-10
For the NASDAQ to participate more, at the very least, AAPL will need to
break out above its resistance. More importantly, NYSE Down volume, which
was showed 105 million more shares than Up Volume today, will need to stop rising and
turn down. Otherwise, the P-Indicator may turn negative and, in this, match the
V-I. This combination could bring a Peerless Sell at the 2.4% upper band if the
DJI rallies in isolation despite the very Bullish Buy B21.
Watch BA, AAPL and DIA. See their Candle-Stick charts below. Semi-conductors
remain the hottest industry group. DIA, FAS, SOXL, TECL, OIL, UGA and BA
are now showing Bullish Blue-Across-the-Board strength in Table 1. As a hedge,
hold short some of the Bearish MINCPs, but keep your long focus on the strongest
groups and stocks.
Charts 11/2/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/2/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Strongest Sector - SOXL
Low Accumulation and Falling Closing Power stocks make the best short sales.
For the last 4 months, consistently the stock that has looked very bearish is TEVA.
Dean Foods
Expect more from BA. That will boost the DJI further.
Table 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/2/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/02/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.96 .77 234.17 23.7% ---- BLUE .217 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6714.94 -1.59 6701.26 118.4% Bearish BLUE .16 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.59 .1 257.71 38.3% ---- BLUE .236 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 151.81 -.29 151.24 160.8% Bullish RED .268 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.02 .28 W334.25 7.8% ---- BLUE .132 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.71 .44 W149.79 -1.7% Bearish BLUE -.076 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.89 1.29 61.02 84.1% Bullish BLUE .144 .144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.42 .87 25.66 -293.7% Bearish BLUE -.08 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.52 1.94 143.36 468.2% Bullish BLUE .399 .525 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 107.86 .23 105.36 485.9% Bullish BLUE .238 .213 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 312.06 -.13 W316.12 -30.5% Bearish RED -.209 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.8 .08 5.69 264.5% Bullish BLUE .314 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.51 .03 23.67 239.9% Bearish RED -.037 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 23.2 -1 21.3 877% ---- RED .054 .343 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.12 .74 30.93 242.1% Bullish BLUE .467 .133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.63 0 W24.68 2% Bearish ---- -.018 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.2 .14 105.85 32.6% Bullish ---- .012 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.4 .11 17.34 -2.9% Bullish BLUE -.104 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.29 .11 W6.3 -55.9% Bullish BLUE -.083 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.73 .47 W33.85 240.5% ---- BLUE .154 .125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.99 0 ?21.99 47.9% Bearish BLUE -.135 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 168.11 1.22 163.05 325% Bullish BLUE .206 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1025.58 .08 1019.27 262.4% Bullish BLUE -.009 .028 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 84.05 .87 83.81 320.4% ---- BLUE -.057 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1094.22 -9.46 W1100.95 564.6% Bullish RED .143 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.92 -3.74 177.88 232.6% Bearish RED .138 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 205.94 -1.26 201.86 252.4% Bullish RED .263 .164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 262.63 4.13 256.46 65% Bullish BLUE .227 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 246.88 2.62 241.71 106.5% Bullish BLUE .029 .03Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/2 11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/17
NEWHIGHS 334 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430
NEWLOWS 114 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 113 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168
MINCPs 214 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 69 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76
TTTNLs 313 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138 108
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 196 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 208 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171102 No. NHs NHs' Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 7 2 29 % ETFS 65 16 25 % DOWJONES 30 6 20 % NIFTY 30 6 20 % GREEN 31 6 19 % SOLAR 21 4 19 % GAMING 28 5 18 % SOFTWARE 66 11 17 % MILITARY 38 6 16 % HACKERS 25 4 16 % INSURANC 32 5 16 % UTILITY 43 7 16 % AUTO 39 6 15 % DJI-13 13 2 15 % ================================================== SP-100 96 13 14 % INDEXES 211 26 12 % ELECTRON 179 18 10 % SP500 486 50 10 % RUS-1000 842 85 10 % MORNSTAR 238 22 9 % SEMI 130 12 9 % INFRA 11 1 9 % NASD-100 88 8 9 % CHINA 64 6 9 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % INDMATER 92 6 7 % REGBANKS 33 2 6 % OILGAS 144 9 6 % REIT 178 10 6 % COMODITY 70 4 6 % CHEM 65 3 5 % FINANCE 92 5 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % BIOTECH 388 17 4 % RETAIL 54 1 2 % --------------------------------------------------- None: BIGMIL HOMEBLDG TRANSP COAL GOAL GOLD EDU PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETSTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/2/17Bullish = 37 (10 + 17 + 10) Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 REGBANKS .909 .878 .909 .909 .939 .939 NIFTY .9 .866 .9 .866 .866 .666 FINANCE .836 .793 .804 .826 .836 .826 BIGMIL .833 .5 .666 .833 .833 .833 DOWJONES .833 .8 .833 .833 .866 .833 INFRA .818 .818 .909 .818 .909 .909 MILITARY .815 .763 .763 .763 .815 .815 SOLAR .809 .809 .809 .761 .761 .666 N=10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHEM .784 .753 .753 .753 .846 .861 ETFS .784 .784 .753 .707 .753 .676 SEMI .784 .753 .776 .753 .753 .73 AUTO .769 .794 .769 .717 .846 .871 HOMEBLDG .764 .882 .882 .823 .882 .882 ELECTRON .754 .743 .759 .737 .765 .731 COAL .75 .75 .875 .875 .875 .875 GREEN .741 .741 .774 .838 .87 .774 SP-100 .739 .729 .729 .739 .75 .729 INSURANC .718 .718 .781 .812 .781 .781 EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 INDMATER .706 .695 .695 .717 .728 .739 TRANSP .7 .65 .6 .65 .7 .7 UTILITY .697 .627 .72 .744 .72 .604 OILGAS .687 .701 .666 .625 .583 .513 SOFTWARE .681 .757 .833 .803 .803 .833 SP500 .67 .672 .679 .681 .701 .681 N=17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MORNSTAR .659 .663 .668 .63 .651 .68 NASD-100 .659 .704 .681 .681 .693 .647 INDEXES .654 .668 .668 .677 .658 .687 RUS-1000 .647 .65 .659 .662 .682 .663 CHINA .64 .718 .64 .593 .656 .578 HACKERS .6 .64 .8 .8 .68 .64 GAMING .571 .642 .642 .607 .607 .571 COMPUTER .565 .695 .695 .565 .608 .521 COMODITY .542 .542 .528 .542 .542 .514 FOOD .533 .533 .6 .533 .533 .466 N=10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .5 .45 .55 .5 .45 .5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .487 .502 .515 .507 .523 .474 RETAIL .444 .37 .407 .425 .5 .518 REIT .443 .398 .337 .337 .404 .308 JETS .333 .444 .222 .333 .222 .222 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 GOLD .24 .22 .16 .2 .16 .14 BONDFUND .071 .044 .089 .071 .044 .026 PIPELINE 0 .142 0 0 0 0 N=8
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
11/1/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21.
The DJI will likely stay in its narrow trading range a little longer.
In 6 of the earlier September B21s, the DJI retreated back as low as its
21-day ma in November. In the other two cases, it had to go back to
its rising 65-dma. The bigger thing here is that the DJI averaged a
gain of +17.3% before it was reversed by a Peerless Sell.
Professionals took profits today and appear to be waiting for a pullback to come back
into the market. Another trading approach for us is to stay long the ETFs with rising Closing
Powers and 5-day moving averages while selling short some of the bearish MINCP stocks.
November is usually a much kinder month than September and October for
the market. Since 1965, we have seen the DJI move mostly positively, if un-dramatically
in the weeks and month or two after November 1st.
DJI's Behavior after November 1st since 1965
Avg Gain Pct of time, DJI advances.
Over Next Week +0.7% 61%
Over Next Two Weeks +0.3% 53%
Over Next Month +0.8% 61%
Over Next Two Months +1.0% 59%
I suggested traders watch AAPL to see if it could breakout today and help launch a
bigger advance. Instead, it quickly reversed and that seems to have been a signal
for traders to take some profits. In addition, the Fed all but promised a rate hike
in December. This was already expected and several home-builders made more
new highs. See them in the BULLISH MAXCPs tonight. The big news is the tax-cut.
The Republican Congressional leaders delayed setting forth their plan today and
that gave a reason for some to wait for the details before applauding by buying more
stocks.
The Hourly DJI was stopped early-on at its recent high near 23500-23510. It then lost
most of its early gain today. The NASDAQ fell more. The weak close is important
short-term. It produced numerous red-Candle-Sticks in the major market ETFs and
caused the Closing Power for DIA, IWM, MDY and QQQ to drop below their
21-day ma. This should delay our buying here until their CPs rise back above their
21-dma. Where the IP21 for each of these ETFs is below +.15, a deeper retreat
would seem in order. See the their Candle-Stick charts just below. SOXL's IP21
remains quite high, so I would not expect it to be very weak. See more details in
Table 1 as well as in the comments on the charts below.
Charts 11/1/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX(Nasdaq)
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
11/1/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 1 Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS:
11/1/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading leveraged ETFs.
It also provides a useful short-term outlook of these sectors ETF's and the
sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that have advanced a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that brings a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close-versus- pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences an to estimate underlying support.
5 > IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish in an over-extended ETF, especially
when its Closing Power is falling and is below its 21-dma.
> IP21 below 07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 11/01/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.19 .56 233.85 22% ---- RED .177 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6716.53 -11.14 6556.77 114.8% ---- RED .153 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.49 .34 255.62 42.9% ---- RED .216 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 152.1 -.05 146.96 155.8% Bullish RED .244 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.74 -.88 332.5 25.1% ---- RED .147 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.27 -.99 W148.76 -6% Bearish RED -.109 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.6 .25 W60.87 31.4% Bearish RED .097 .126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.55 .05 W26.9 -409.8% Bearish RED -.107 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 146.58 -1.38 135.08 493% Bullish RED .41 .533 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 107.63 -.1 97.66 531.7% Bullish RED .206 .212 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 312.19 -1.99 W313.98 -146.3% Bearish RED -.15 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.72 -.02 5.5 258.3% Bullish RED .244 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.48 .24 23.36 238% Bearish RED -.035 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 24.2 1.63 19.37 1225% ---- BLUE .05 .459 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.38 .24 30.62 165.7% Bullish RED .449 .129 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.63 .05 ?24.62 55% Bearish ---- -.049 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.06 -.1 105.51 19.4% Bullish BLUE .022 -.084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.29 .08 W17.41 -49% Bearish ---- -.108 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.18 -.02 W6.36 -182.3% Bearish ---- -.126 -.108 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.26 .63 32.15 154.7% ---- RED .118 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.99 .2 21.78 52.6% Bearish RED -.191 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 166.89 -2.15 157.41 322.4% Bullish RED .172 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1025.5 8.86 972.56 260.9% Bullish BLUE -.056 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.18 0 78.76 278.6% ---- RED -.051 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1103.68 -1.6 972.43 621.2% Bullish RED .167 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 182.66 2.6 170.63 343% Bearish BLUE .142 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 207.2 .39 195.69 337.9% Bullish RED .278 .204 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 258.5 .52 W259.27 1.5% Bullish BLUE .201 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 244.26 1.78 241.72 52.8% Bearish RED -.024 .022Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
11/1 10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/13 10/12
NEWHIGHS 272 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430 402
NEWLOWS 70 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50 44
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 64 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168 255
MINCPs 101 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78 79
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 43 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76 115
TTTNLs 299 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138 108 92
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 178 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 185 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 11/1/17 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .823 .882 .882 .823 REGBANKS .878 .909 .909 .939 .939 .909 NIFTY .866 .9 .866 .866 .733 .733 INFRA .818 .909 .818 .909 .909 .818 SOLAR .809 .809 .761 .761 .714 .666 DOWJONES .8 .833 .833 .866 .866 .833--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTO .794 .769 .717 .846 .897 .794 FINANCE .793 .804 .826 .836 .826 .858 ETFS .784 .753 .707 .753 .676 .753 MILITARY .763 .763 .763 .815 .789 .842 SOFTWARE .757 .833 .803 .803 .818 .818 CHEM .753 .753 .753 .846 .846 .83 SEMI .753 .776 .753 .753 .738 .738 COAL .75 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 ELECTRON .743 .759 .737 .765 .731 .743 GREEN .741 .774 .838 .87 .806 .741 SP-100 .729 .729 .739 .75 .75 .739 CHINA .718 .64 .593 .656 .593 .625 INSURANC .718 .781 .812 .781 .781 .718 EDU .714 .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 NASD-100 .704 .681 .681 .693 .67 .67 OILGAS .701 .666 .625 .583 .513 .5 COMPUTER .695 .695 .565 .608 .608 .565 INDMATER .695 .695 .717 .728 .739 .76 SP500 .671 .677 .679 .7 .687 .698 MORNSTAR .663 .668 .63 .651 .68 .714 INDEXES .658 .668 .677 .658 .687 .725 RUS-1000 .65 .658 .661 .682 .666 .654 TRANSP .65 .6 .65 .7 .7 .7 GAMING .642 .642 .607 .607 .607 .607 HACKERS .64 .8 .8 .68 .64 .64 UTILITY .627 .72 .744 .72 .604 .604 COMODITY .549 .535 .549 .549 .521 .563 FOOD .533 .6 .533 .533 .466 .533 BIOTECH .502 .515 .507 .523 .479 .546 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL .5 .666 .833 .833 .833 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .45 .55 .5 .45 .5 .55 JETS .444 .222 .333 .222 .222 .333 REIT .402 .34 .34 .407 .318 .391 RETAIL .37 .407 .425 .5 .518 .518 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .625 GOLD .22 .16 .2 .16 .14 .14 PIPELINE .142 0 0 0 0 0 BONDFUND .044 .089 .071 .044 .026 .071 N=8
=================================================================================
10/31/2017 The operative Peerless Signals remains the very Bullish Buy B21. It's average
gain is +17.6% at the time of the next Peerless Sell and most often that comes
in the Spring of the next year.
SOXL remains the leader of all the bullish ETFs right now. This is very bullish for the
market as a whole. Semi-conductors are very sensitive to any coming down-turn. Their
bullishness should give us confidence now. Recall an earlier study that I did a year ago that
that showed that just about every significant market top going back to1987 also had a
bearish head/shoulders pattern develop in Texas Instruments (TXN). So, in the same spirit,
while it's true that 3x leveraged SOXL is quite volatile, its surely important for us now to note
that its important past price tops have always required its IP21 (current Accumulation Index)
to drop below its 21-day ma and then for a head/shoulders top pattern to develop in it.
Compare the very positive internal strength of SOXL now and then with the way it topped
out in in 2010 (see below) as well as all its other past tops since its creation in 2010:
2012, 2014, 2016 and earlier in 2017.
SOXL's top back in 2010 was highlighted
by many signs of technical weakness.
Watch AAPL tomorrow. It is on the verge of breaking above its last remaining
resistance-line. A further advance could send it to 200. Such a move would be very
positive for tech stocks, especially semi-conductors. And because it is such a big part
of then, a breakout by it could send the DJI and QQQ soaring, not to mention all the
other ETFs that it is a big part of.
There are still many MINCPs. So Professionals are still hedging. But it is very bullish
that there are no so many across-the-board Bullish ETFs, as shown in our QuickSilver
Table 2 below: NASDAQ, QQQ, MDY, SOXL, TECL, UGA, YINN and also NVDA.
Charts 10/312017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Split Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks High Priced DJI Stocks Chart
DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX(Nasdaq)
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: COW JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MASI MSFT NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
Others REN, CVE and SWN
10/31/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs link correctedTable 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS: 10/31/2017
A high number of ETFS show bullish across-the-board Blue internals:
COMPQX (Nasdaq), QQQ, MDY, SOXL, TECL, UGA, Yinn (and NVDA)
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading
of leveraged ETFs. It also provides a useful short-term
outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advances a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that bring a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close versus pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish.
IP21 below .07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.QUICKSILVER on ETFS and BIG STOCKS - 10/31/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 233.63 .3 233.16 -14.1% ---- ---- .241 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6727.67 28.71 6563.89 97.6% Bullish BLUE .193 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.15 .4 255.29 11.5% ---- RED .279 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 152.15 .57 147.43 139.6% Bullish BLUE .271 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.62 1.77 331.07 7.5% Bullish BLUE .212 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.26 1.05 148.45 3% Bearish BLUE -.012 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.35 -.12 60.22 -36.3% Bearish RED .166 .141 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.5 .11 W26.65 -516.1% Bearish BLUE -.097 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 147.96 3.25 132.7 355.6% Bullish BLUE .442 .618 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 107.73 1.26 96.7 481.4% Bullish BLUE .245 .26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 314.18 -2.48 W321.45 -172.4% Bearish RED -.094 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.74 .03 5.43 251.9% Bullish ---- .267 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.24 .17 23.35 178.2% Bearish BLUE .005 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 22.57 .83 19.1 660.7% ---- BLUE -.001 .39 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.14 .31 30.36 161.9% Bullish BLUE .493 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.58 .02 24.36 32.6% Bearish ---- -.06 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.16 -.07 105.65 16.1% Bullish RED .065 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.21 -.14 W17.46 -89% Bearish RED -.134 -.115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.2 -.07 W6.41 -188.8% Bearish ---- -.141 -.126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.63 .29 32.25 83% Bullish BLUE .218 .159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.79 -.26 21.76 -59.3% Bearish RED -.105 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 169.04 2.32 156.41 372.8% Bullish BLUE .205 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1016.64 -.47 973.33 232.7% Bullish BLUE -.045 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.18 -.71 78.63 267.4% ---- RED -.058 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1105.28 -5.57 972.91 630.1% Bullish RED .163 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 180.06 .19 170.6 237.1% ---- RED .061 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 206.81 2.97 193.66 204.5% Bullish BLUE .289 .222 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 257.98 -1.27 W258.42 -154.3% ---- RED .154 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 242.48 1.59 241.71 -48.7% Bearish BLUE .006 .02Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
10/31 10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/13 10/12 10/11
NEWHIGHS 392 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430 402 487
NEWLOWS 170 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50 44 44
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 158 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168 255 239
MINCPs 120 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78 79 73
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 76 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76 115 102
TTTNLs 195 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138 108 92 92
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 150 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 202 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166Table 3 New Highs Pct by Sector-Folder 10/31/2017 No. NHs Pct NHs ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 6 35 % NIFTY 30 9 30 % SEMI 130 38 29 % GAMING 28 7 25 % ELECTRON 179 44 25 % ETFS 65 13 20 % INSURANC 32 5 16 % DJI-13 13 2 15 % BEVERAGE 20 3 15 % ======================================================= CHEM 65 9 14 % INDEXES 211 30 14 % GREEN 31 4 13 % INDMATER 92 12 13 % NASD-100 88 11 13 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % MORNSTAR 238 26 11 % SOFTWARE 66 7 11 % JETS 9 1 11 % DOWJONES 30 3 10 % RUS-1000 843 82 10 % SP500 487 44 9 % CHINA 64 6 9 % UTILITY 43 4 9 % HACKERS 25 2 8 % FOOD 15 1 7 % BIOTECH 388 24 6 % COMODITY 71 4 6 % AUTO 39 2 5 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % FINANCE 92 4 4 % SP-100 96 4 4 % OILGAS 144 4 3 % GOLD 50 1 2 % REIT 179 3 2 % ======================================================== None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL REGBANKS INFRA COAL EDU RETAIL PIPELINE BONDFUND HOSPITALTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/31/17 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 100% 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 .846 INFRA .909 .818 .909 .909 .818 .818 REGBANKS .909 .909 .939 .939 .909 .939 NIFTY .9 .866 .866 .733 .766 .8 HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .882 .882 .823 .823 COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .75 DOWJONES .833 .833 .866 .866 .833 .8 SOFTWARE .833 .803 .803 .818 .803 .818 SOLAR .809 .761 .761 .714 .666 .761 FINANCE .804 .826 .836 .826 .858 .836 HACKERS .8 .8 .68 .64 .64 .76 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .781 .812 .781 .781 .75 .781 SEMI .776 .753 .753 .738 .738 .776 GREEN .774 .838 .87 .806 .741 .806 AUTO .769 .717 .846 .897 .794 .923 MILITARY .763 .763 .815 .789 .815 .842 ELECTRON .759 .737 .765 .731 .743 .77 CHEM .753 .753 .846 .846 .83 .8 ETFS .753 .707 .753 .676 .753 .8 SP-100 .729 .739 .75 .75 .75 .76 UTILITY .72 .744 .72 .604 .581 .697 EDU .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 COMPUTER .695 .565 .608 .608 .565 .695 INDMATER .695 .717 .728 .739 .76 .793 NASD-100 .681 .681 .693 .67 .681 .704 SP500 .677 .679 .7 .687 .698 .731 INDEXES .668 .677 .658 .687 .72 .753 MORNSTAR .668 .63 .651 .68 .71 .747 BIGMIL .666 .833 .833 .833 1 1 OILGAS .666 .625 .583 .513 .5 .541 RUS-1000 .658 .661 .682 .666 .654 .691 GAMING .642 .607 .607 .607 .607 .607 CHINA .64 .593 .656 .593 .625 .687 FOOD .6 .533 .533 .466 .533 .466 TRANSP .6 .65 .7 .7 .7 .8 BEVERAGE .55 .5 .45 .5 .55 .55 COMODITY .535 .549 .549 .521 .563 .549 BIOTECH .515 .507 .523 .479 .546 .569 ============================================================================================== RETAIL .407 .425 .5 .518 .518 .5 REIT .34 .34 .407 .318 .396 .463 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .25 .25 .625 .75 JETS .222 .333 .222 .222 .333 .555 GOLD .16 .2 .16 .14 .14 .16 BONDFUND .089 .071 .044 .026 .071 .16 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=7
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
10/30/2017 Peerless has given no sell signal. The leading techs and semi-conductors
are clearly the center of the "sweet spot" for the bull market now. I see nothing
technically that presents a serious risk to them at this stage.
The DJI half-heartedly fell today, but it looks like there will be a Tuesday bounce-back,
just as there was a week ago. Regardless of the indictments of Trump's campaign-men,
the big tax cut is still on track for corporations and the super-wealthy who own most stocks.
This should delay most big profit-taking until next year. In addition, rumor has it that Yellen's
replacement as Fed Chairman is a centrist, neither a hawk nor a dove. We'll watch
developments here, but clearly Wall Street is already pleased and overnight, the DJI is up 40.
The DJI seems to be in a consolidation pattern now. DIA's Closing Power is still classified
as bullish. But we will need to see it not close weakly at tomorrow's lows as that would cause
its IP21 and Closing Power to decline further and cause another red candle-stick day.
I showed in last night's Hotline that trading in this fashion for a week or two more will become
bearish. But right now, the momentum is still up and, as far as Peerless goes, the
average Buy B21 signal brings a DJI gain of 17+ % before there is an important reversal.
Yes, this is a fragmented market. But that is not unusual and it can continue for a
very long time, The leading semi-conductors (SOXL) and tech stocks (TECL) keep
rising and show bullish (blue) across-the-board QuickSilver key values. We should stay
these. This is where money managers must place new money if they are to do well. At the
same time, our Bearish MINCPs keep falling. Stay short some of these.
Pyramid Investing
It will help us, I think, to watch especially closely the most heavily weighted stocks in
the DJI-30, QQQ and SOXL. The 4 highest priced DJI stocks (BA, GS, MMM and
UNH) now comprise 28% of the DJI's weight. This is nearly twice as much as the ten lowest
priced DJI stocks. The ten highest make up 55% of the weighting in the DJI's movements,
the next ten constitute 30% and the lowest ten are valued at only 15% in the DJI. This
is important. It takes a relatively small amount of funds to push the market's most visible
index upwards. And, of course, it is these rising high-fliers that disproportionately attract
the most aggressive investments from performance minded fund managers. Once a bull market
gets into high-gear, sheer momentum and these pyramid-investing dynamics keep it going a long
time. It is usually only when really big excesses are achieved and the divergences become
much more blatant that a major top usually made.
If what I've just said makes sense, it may be even more true for the QQQ. Just four stocks
comprise 44% of the weighting in the QQQ. Those are AAPL (11.8%), GOOG (9.3%),
MSFT (9.1%), AMZN (7.4%) and FB (5.9%). To make it a little easier to track these
I have added these stocks to the QuickSilver listing in Table 2.
Charts 10/302017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Split Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks High Priced DJI Stocks Chart
DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX(Nasdaq)
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: COW JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MASI MSFT NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
Others REN, CVE and SWN
10/30/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS and KEY STOCKS: 10/30/2017
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading
of leveraged ETFs. It also provides a useful short-term
outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advances a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that bring a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close versus pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish.
IP21 below .07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/30/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 233.33 -.84 W234.29 14.6% ---- RED .271 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6698.96 -2.3 6598.43 84.9% Bullish BLUE .2 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 256.75 -.96 256.56 12.5% ---- RED .321 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 151.58 .34 147.99 129.5% Bullish BLUE .253 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 331.85 -2.4 W333.12 .8% Bullish RED .251 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.21 -1.58 W149.17 -21.8% Bearish RED .053 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.47 -.55 W60.79 33% ---- ---- .233 .147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.39 -1.27 W27.2 -485.4% Bearish RED -.056 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 144.71 1.35 138.09 342.6% Bullish BLUE .428 .545 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 106.47 1.11 98.02 463.6% Bullish BLUE .22 .245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 316.66 .54 W325.17 -172.6% Bearish BLUE .021 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.71 .02 5.46 291.2% Bullish ---- .267 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.07 .4 23.4 147.2% Bearish BLUE -.001 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.74 .44 19.89 398.3% Bearish BLUE .047 .291 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.83 -.1 30.15 232.7% Bullish RED .493 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.56 -.12 24.42 36.7% ---- RED -.046 -.063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 106.23 .38 105.82 4.3% Bullish BLUE -.005 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.35 .01 W17.52 -34.4% ---- ---- -.115 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.27 -.03 W6.44 -117.4% Bearish ---- -.073 -.129 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.34 -1.51 32.09 41.6% ---- RED .151 .191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.05 .06 22.05 18.3% Bearish RED -.103 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- STOCKS ------------------------------------------------------------------ AAPL 166.72 3.67 157.1 333.8% Bullish BLUE .18 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1017.11 -2.16 970.54 248.1% Bullish BLUE -.052 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 83.89 .08 78.86 317.1% Bullish BLUE -.007 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1110.85 9.9 975.9 724.4% Bullish BLUE .168 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.87 1.99 171.8 249.4% Bearish BLUE .024 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 203.84 1.98 198.68 183% Bullish BLUE .267 .185 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 259.25 2.79 266.00 -58.9% Bullish BLUE .219 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 240.89 -.82 244.84 -25.6% Bearish BLUE .038 .007 ==============================================================================================
Table 2
COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
10/30 10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/13 10/12 10/11 10/10
NEWHIGHS 190 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430 402 487 481
NEWLOWS 84 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50 44 44 29
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 97 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168 255 239 194
MINCPs 139 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78 79 73 64
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 72 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76 115 102 89
TTTNLs 151 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138 108 92 92 75
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 112 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 200 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 171030 ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY 30 10 33 % SOLAR 21 6 29 % HOMEBLDG 17 3 18 % GREEN 31 5 16 % SEMI 130 21 16 % NASD-100 88 13 15 % ------------------------------------------------------- GAMING 28 4 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % UTILITY 43 6 14 % ELECTRON 179 23 13 % INSURANC 32 4 13 % SOFTWARE 66 7 11 % DOWJONES 30 3 10 % BEVERAGE 20 2 10 % CHEM 65 6 9 % INDEXES 211 20 9 % INFRA 11 1 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % INDMATER 92 7 8 % SP-100 96 7 7 % SP500 488 35 7 % RUS-1000 844 59 7 % ETFS 65 4 6 % MORNSTAR 238 14 6 % CHINA 64 4 6 % FINANCE 92 5 5 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % AUTO 40 1 3 % OILGAS 144 4 3 % BIOTECH 388 7 2 % RETAIL 55 1 2 % COMODITY 71 1 1 % None: BIGBANKS BIGMIL HACKERS COAL GOLD REIT PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETS
Table 4RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/30/17 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .846 .846 .846 REGBANKS .909 .939 .939 .909 .939 .939 COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .75 .75 NIFTY .866 .866 .733 .766 .8 .733 GREEN .838 .87 .806 .741 .806 .838 BIGMIL .833 .833 .833 1 1 1 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .833 .8 .8 FINANCE .826 .836 .826 .858 .847 .815 HOMEBLDG .823 .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 INFRA .818 .909 .909 .818 .818 .818 INSURANC .812 .781 .781 .75 .781 .812 SOFTWARE .803 .803 .818 .803 .818 .803 HACKERS .8 .68 .64 .64 .72 .76 N=14 ============================================================================================ MILITARY .763 .815 .789 .815 .815 .815 SOLAR .761 .761 .714 .666 .761 .761 CHEM .753 .846 .846 .83 .784 .784 SEMI .753 .753 .738 .738 .761 .761 UTILITY .744 .72 .604 .581 .697 .697 SP-100 .739 .75 .75 .75 .76 .76 ELECTRON .737 .765 .731 .743 .765 .77 AUTO .725 .85 .9 .8 .925 .925 INDMATER .717 .728 .739 .76 .782 .76 EDU .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 ETFS .707 .753 .676 .753 .8 .8 NASD-100 .681 .693 .67 .681 .704 .704 SP500 .678 .698 .686 .696 .727 .729 INDEXES .677 .658 .687 .72 .753 .758 RUS-1000 .661 .681 .665 .654 .686 .691 TRANSP .65 .7 .7 .7 .8 .75 MORNSTAR .63 .651 .68 .71 .747 .735 OILGAS .625 .583 .513 .5 .534 .534 GAMING .607 .607 .607 .607 .642 .642 CHINA .593 .656 .593 .625 .687 .671 COMPUTER .565 .608 .608 .565 .652 .608 COMODITY .549 .549 .521 .563 .549 .577 FOOD .533 .533 .466 .533 .466 .466 BIOTECH .507 .523 .479 .546 .567 .613 N=24 =============================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .45 .5 .55 .55 .55 =============================================================================================== RETAIL .418 .49 .509 .509 .49 .472 REIT .34 .407 .318 .396 .458 .513 JETS .333 .222 .222 .333 .555 .222 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .25 .625 .75 .75 GOLD .2 .16 .14 .14 .16 .24 BONDFUND .071 .044 .026 .071 .151 .196 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=7===================================================================================
===================================================================================
10/27/2017 Peerless has given no sell signal. But a Monday sell-off in the DJI seems to
be shaping up. The DJI did not do nearly as well as the NASDAQ on Friday
and several high priced DJI-30 stocks (BA, MSFT, MRK and CVX) look vulnerable
in varying degrees, as will be shown below.
Friday was a very good day for bullish tech aficionados. AMZN (+128.52)
and GOOG (+46.71) reported much better than expected earnings and
AAPL hyped that its newest IPhone orders were "off the charts". All this allowed
many big tech higher, especially the leading semi-conductors, to make what could
be described as "gaudy gains", which are likely to bring some profit-taking.
The immediate result was that QQQ and the NASDAQ leapt to new highs and we
now see across-the-board Blue readings from DIA, COMPQX, (NASDAQ),
MDY, SOXL, TECL. The TigerSoft charts of each of these show rising Closing Powers,
5-day ma, BLUE candle-sticks and very positive IP21 (Accumulation) and
ITRS (50-day Relative Strength vis-a-vis the DJI.) values. The key values are also
positive for SPY and QQQ, except that their ITRS numbers are negative.
We have to remain bullish. But I can't help but mentioning that in the late stages of
a bull market, flashy jumps in tech stocks often occur. This adds to the allure of
the bull market and makes side-line sitting emotionally difficult. On days like this, traders
should watch the next trading day's follow-through or the lack of it. But even on the day of
the big gap opening, they must watch to see if prices rise after the openings. If the closings
on these big up-days end up being below the openings, it turns our candle-stick chart RED and
our Closing Powers down for the day. This is normally short-term bearish, especially if the next
day is weak. Candle-stick "Red Popsicles" become significantly bearish when the Tiger Closing
Powers turn "Bearish" and the IP21 turns negative. That is not true now. In fact, as long as
their Accumulation Index scores stay above +.25, all declines for the big major market ETFs
are likely to be shallow. From Table 1, we can see that all the major market ETFs have very
positive IP21s, the highest being SOXL (.463 ). Both DIA and SPY have IP21s above +.30.
So, the major markets look safe.
Some of The DJI-30 Stocks (MSFT, BA, CVX, MRK)
Now Show What We Don't Want To See
MSFT's big gap on Friday was followed by a close near the day's low and well
below the opening. Its IP21-Accum.Index is only +.05. A closing of the big gap
seems likely. (No buy-out here!)
High-priced BA's Closing Power is now below its 21-day ma. Bulls should be
concerned if its IP21 falls much below +.15.
See how CVX peaked. It showed a RED candle-stick. Its IP21 dropped well below
its 21-day ma. while above 118 just as its Closing Power uptrend was violated. See the
amount of Red in the candle-stick chart below in the head/shoulders shaped top formation.
MRK's sell-off on Friday is much too big for a blue chip. This is a
definite warning. It showed 7 straight RED candle-sticks while stock
was still above 65. As stock broke below 65, its Closing Power uptrend
was violated and its IP21 fell away from its 21-dma.
At the extreme we see how the coming weakness is GE was telegraphed
to alert Tiger users back at start of 2017 by all these factors.
Charts 10/27/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Split Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks High Priced DJI Stocks Chart
DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX(Nasdaq)
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp
CHN CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: COW JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MASI MSFT NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
Others REN, CVE and SWN
10/27/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS 10/27/2017
Across-the-board Blue: DIA, COMPQX, (NASDAQ), MDY, SOXL, TECL, OIL, UGA and YINN.
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading
of leveraged ETFs. It also provides a useful short-term
outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advances a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that bring a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close versus pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs. its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish.
IP21 below .07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/27/17ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 234.17 .32 232.65 22.3% Bullish BLUE .351 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6701.26 +144.49 6586.83 54.8% Bullish BLUE .252 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.71 2.09 256.11 11.7% Bullish BLUE .388 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 151.24 4.28 147.74 85.6% Bullish BLUE .316 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 334.25 1.75 331.8 10.2% Bullish BLUE .274 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.79 1.03 148.86 -6.4% Bearish BLUE .081 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.02 .15 60.07 43% ---- BLUE .291 .153 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.66 -1.24 W26.98 -208.2% Bearish RED -.004 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 143.36 8.28 135.33 377% Bullish BLUE .463 .547 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 105.36 7.7 97.29 351.8% Bullish BLUE .254 .229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 316.12 2.14 W327.74 -242% Bearish BLUE .071 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.69 .19 5.39 276% Bullish BLUE .273 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.67 .31 23.38 -32% Bearish BLUE -.069 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 21.3 1.93 20.15 -2.5% Bearish BLUE .057 .298 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.93 .31 29.42 213% Bullish BLUE .427 .115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.68 .06 24.38 67.6% Bullish ---- -.027 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 105.85 .34 106.14 -9% ---- BLUE -.079 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.34 -.07 W17.47 43.1% Bearish ---- -.087 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.3 -.06 W6.42 0% Bearish RED -.105 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 33.85 1.7 32.07 103.6% Bullish BLUE .182 .263 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.99 .21 21.97 -34.2% Bearish BLUE -.073 .019
Table 2
10/27 10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/13 10/12 10/11 10/10 10/9
NEWHIGHS 480 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430 402 487 481 271
NEWLOWS 83 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50 44 44 29 21
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 184 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168 255 239 194 185
MINCPs 162 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78 79 73 64 55
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 76 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76 115 102 89 74
TTTNLs 224 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 117 138 108 92 92 75 95
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 95 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 115 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166Table 3
Percentages of Sectors Making New Highs: Date = 171027No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 7 4 57 % NIFTY 30 12 40 % SOLAR 21 7 33 % HOMEBLDG 17 5 29 % SEMI 130 35 27 % ELECTRON 180 46 26 % GAMING 28 7 25 % FINANCE 92 20 22 % INSURANC 32 7 22 % SP-100 96 20 21 % INDEXES 212 45 21 % UTILITY 43 9 21 % NASD-100 88 18 20 % GREEN 31 6 19 % ETFS 65 12 18 % DOWJONES 30 5 17 % MORNSTAR 238 41 17 % SOFTWARE 66 10 15 % SP500 488 74 15 % ------------------------------------------------------- RUS-1000 844 118 14 % MILITARY 38 5 13 % CHINA 64 8 13 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % REGBANKS 33 4 12 % TRANSP 20 2 10 % CHEM 65 6 9 % INFRA 11 1 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % INDMATER 92 6 7 % AUTO 39 2 5 % BIOTECH 387 19 5 % RETAIL 55 3 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % COMODITY 71 2 3 % REIT 179 4 2 % ------------------------------------------------ None: BIGMIL HACKERS OILGAS COMPUTER COAL GOLD EDU PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND JETS
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/27/17 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 REGBANKS .939 .939 .909 .939 .939 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .846 .846 .846 INFRA .909 .909 .818 .818 .818 1 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 COAL .875 .875 .875 .75 .75 .75 GREEN .87 .806 .741 .806 .838 .838 DOWJONES .866 .866 .833 .8 .8 .833 NIFTY .866 .733 .766 .8 .733 .8 AUTO .846 .897 .794 .923 .923 .897 CHEM .846 .846 .83 .784 .769 .846 FINANCE .836 .826 .858 .847 .815 .891 BIGMIL .833 .833 1 1 1 1 MILITARY .815 .789 .815 .815 .815 .868 SOFTWARE .803 .818 .803 .818 .803 .818 N=15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .781 .781 .75 .781 .812 .812 ELECTRON .761 .727 .738 .761 .75 .722 SOLAR .761 .714 .666 .761 .761 .666 ETFS .753 .676 .753 .8 .8 .846 SEMI .753 .738 .738 .761 .738 .715 SP-100 .75 .75 .75 .76 .75 .812 INDMATER .728 .739 .76 .782 .771 .793 UTILITY .72 .604 .581 .697 .697 .72 TRANSP .7 .7 .7 .8 .75 .9 SP500 .698 .686 .696 .727 .729 .768 NASD-100 .693 .67 .681 .704 .704 .75 RUS-1000 .681 .665 .654 .686 .69 .733 HACKERS .68 .64 .64 .72 .76 .76 CHINA .656 .593 .625 .687 .671 .687 INDEXES .655 .683 .716 .75 .754 .74 MORNSTAR .651 .68 .71 .747 .731 .773 COMPUTER .608 .608 .565 .652 .608 .608 GAMING .607 .607 .607 .642 .642 .642 OILGAS .583 .513 .5 .534 .541 .604 EDU .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 COMODITY .549 .521 .563 .549 .563 .521 FOOD .533 .466 .533 .466 .4 .4 BIOTECH .524 .48 .547 .568 .607 .643 N=23 =============================================================================================== RETAIL .49 .509 .509 .49 .472 .545 BEVERAGE .45 .5 .55 .55 .55 .55 REIT .407 .318 .396 .458 .513 .569 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .625 .75 .75 .75 JETS .222 .222 .333 .555 .222 .555 GOLD .16 .14 .14 .16 .26 .28 BONDFUND .044 .026 .071 .151 .205 .25 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=8
================================================================================
10/26/2017 Peerless has given no sell signal. The DJI ran up on expectations that Congress
will cut taxes very significantly for corporations and the wealthy, who own most
stock. Republicans have more than enough votes and the fact that they will have
no Democrats aboard will not be a problem. See the NY times article tonight for
details.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/us/politics/house-budget-blueprint-tax-cut.html?emc=edit_th_20171027&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
The market's rally since last November has been anticipating this achievement
more than anything else. It should, therefore, not come as a surprise if there is
a sell-off when the new tax bill and Budget are passed in a month.
But the market is getting nervous now. In fact, if there is another day where the
DJI rises in "splendid isolation" and it closes near the lows of the day, we could see
a new Peerless Sell S8. It would be based on the growing divergence between
the rising DJI and the weakening A/D Line, the IP21's crossing below the 21-day ma
and the V-I being quite negative. We can't be certain if this will appear. It will depend on
the trading data in the next few days. Such a sell signal would most likely not bring
a serious decline. The DJI would not be expected to fall below its rising 65-dma.
And even the NASDAQ, which is being hurt by the swift drop in the Biotechs, should
hold up because of its underlying very high level of Accumulation.
Professionals are clearly switching to the bearish camp. Although there were still 120
MAXCPs today, the number of MINCP stocks (Closing Power New Lows) rose
for the fifth straight days and their number today is now almost twice the level of
Closing Power New Highs. See Table 2. If these stocks cannot go up in a bull market,
what will they do in a much weaker general market?
Right now, only DIA, FAS (Big Banks), MDY and SOXL, among the general market
ETFs shown in Table 1, can boast a rising Closing Power and a rising 5-dma.
MDY, it should be noted, closed below its 5-day ma pivot-point today.
For now stick with DIA, FAS and SOXL on the long side. Take some short sale
hedges among our bearish MINCPs. They show no sign of bottoming. But understand
that the excitement over the big tax-cut has not peaked. As such, it seems bound to bring rising
prices now. That the gains are mostly coming on higher openings is a warning that
Professionals are increasingly reluctant to buy stocks not among the elite-performers.
This selectivity is a pattern that has often been seen in the last six months of past bull market.
In sum, the bullish enthusiasm for the leaders can reach much high levels, I believe.
That is certainly the lesson of 1929, 1973 and 2000. In these years, the final DJI tops were
made only after the NYSE A/D Line had been lagging for more than nine months. Our
A/D Line here is just starting to diverge noticeably from the high-flying DJI.
Charts 10/26/2017
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Split Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks High Priced DJI Stocks Chart
DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX(Nasdaq)
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: COW JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BIDU CAT CVX FB GOOG GS
HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MASI MSFT NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM
ANDV (refinery, CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN
Others REN, CVE and SWN
10/26/2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
Tiger's QUICKSILVER and MAJOR ETFS 10/26/2017
Only DIA, FAS and SOXL as well as GLD, OIL and UGA showing rising Closing Powers
and 5-day ma. MDY closed well below its pivot-point. DIA, FAS and SOXL will become
vulnerable, too, if they close below their pivot-points. That will turn down their 5-day ma and
likely cause them to fall to their 21-dma.
COMPQX (NASDAQ), IWM, IBB and QQQ now have falling 5-day mvg.averages.
DIA, FAS and SOXL will become vulnerable, too, if they close below their pivot-points.
That will turn down their 5-day ma and likely cause them to fall to their 21-dma.
QuickSilver Documentation This is for short-term trading
of leveraged ETFs. It also provides a useful short-term
outlook of these sectors ETF's and the sectors they represent.
Blue is Bullish and Red is Bearish.
1 Candle-Stick color is shortest-term. This changes when close vis-a-vis opng changes.
So, in stocks or ETFs that advances a long ways, traders should sell when a higher
opening gives way to a decline that bring a drop below the previous day's close.
2 5-dma AROC and Close versus pivot point is next most short-term.
W = warning. Close is below PIVOT-Point
3 Closing Power trend-direction vs its 21-dma is next most short-term.
4 IP21 is used to spot divergences and to estimate underlying support.
5 IP21 falling and below +.15 and its 21-dma is bearish.
IP21 below .07 with AROC below .07 is less likely to bring a rally back up from 21-dma.
6 Note price trend-lines, support/resistance and price patterns on charts.
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 10/26/17
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 233.85 .69 233.13 47.2% Bullish RED .342 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6556.77 -7.12 W6629.05 -36.6% ---- RED .242 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 255.62 .33 W257.11 -3.3% ---- RED .371 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 146.96 -.47 W148.71 -45.6% ---- RED .277 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.5 1.43 W333.57 13.7% Bullish BLUE .276 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.76 .31 W149.98 -17.8% Bearish RED .061 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.87 .65 60.5 158% ---- BLUE .291 .109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.9 .25 26.78 215.6% Bearish BLUE .009 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 135.08 2.38 133.19 140.9% Bullish BLUE .455 .346 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 97.66 .96 W98.49 49.8% ---- RED .249 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 313.98 -7.47 W331.8 -321.9% Bearish RED .043 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.6 .58 119.46 142.2% Bullish BLUE .092 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 5.5 .07 5.39 138.8% Bullish BLUE .103 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.36 .01 W23.82 -137.8% Bearish ----- .174 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 19.37 .27 W21.31 -447.7% Bearish BLUE -.036 .145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.62 .26 29.65 272.6% Bullish BLUE .408 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 24.62 .26 24.35 84.2% Bullish BLUE .001 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 105.51 -.14 W106.04 -45.7% Bearish RED -.094 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 17.41 -.05 17.19 20.1% ---- ---- -.068 -.097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.36 -.05 6.3 -23.5% ---- ---- -.102 -.103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.15 -.1 W33.18 24.8% ---- RED .164 .135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.78 .02 W22.14 -93.1% Bearish ---- -.131 .022
Table 2 COMPARISONS OF BULLISH AND BEARISH NUMBERS
There are still 4x more new highs than new lows, but MINCPs, TTTNLs and FASTDOWN
are far more numerous than their counterparts, showing that Professionals are heavy sellers of the broad market.
10/26 10/25 10/24 10/23 10/20 10/19 10/18 10/17 10/16 10/13 10/12 10/11 10/10 10/9 10/6 10/5
NEWHIGHS 309 153 376 200 533 300 381 238 423 430 402 487 481 271 371 555
NEWLOWS 74 103 73 56 41 41 32 32 53 50 44 44 29 21 25 19
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCPs 120 86 117 125 258 251 154 125 137 168 255 239 194 185 252 229
MINCPs 229 209 179 157 106 98 101 89 105 78 79 73 64 55 41 40
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TTTNHs 59 42 70 53 78 89 88 65 63 76 115 102 89 74 93 104
TTTNLs 340 389 216 245 81 122 153 ,117 138 108 92 92 75 95 65 60
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTUP 86 73 92 86 82 63 68 65
FASTDOWN 222 185 155 158 129 148 174 166Table 3 Percentages of Sectors Making New Highs: Date = 171026 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 7 3 43 % HOMEBLDG 17 7 41 % DOWJONES 30 7 23 % SOFTWARE 66 12 18 % REGBANKS 33 5 15 % CHEM 65 10 15 % DJI-13 13 2 15 % ELECTRON 180 27 15 % MORNSTAR 238 35 15 % ====================================================== SP-100 96 13 14 % SEMI 130 18 14 % AUTO 39 5 13 % FINANCE 92 12 13 % SP500 488 65 13 % INSURANC 32 4 13 % RUS-1000 844 109 13 % CHINA 64 8 13 % INDMATER 92 11 12 % GREEN 31 3 10 % TRANSP 20 2 10 % RETAIL 55 5 9 % INDEXES 212 16 8 % NIFTY 30 2 7 % NASD-100 88 6 7 % UTILITY 43 3 7 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % GAMING 28 1 4 % ETFS 65 2 3 % BIOTECH 387 9 2 % OILGAS 144 1 1 % --------------------------------------------------- NO NEW HIGHS: BIGMIL HACKERS INFRA COMPUTER COAL GOLD REIT EDU PIPELINE COMODITY FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITAL JETSTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 10/26/17 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 REGBANKS .939 .909 .939 .939 .969 .939 DJI-13 .923 .846 .846 .846 .846 .846 INFRA .909 .818 .818 .818 1 .818 AUTO .897 .794 .923 .923 .897 .897 HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 COAL .875 .875 .75 .75 .75 .875 DOWJONES .866 .833 .8 .8 .833 .8 CHEM .846 .83 .784 .769 .846 .83 BIGMIL .833 1 1 1 1 1 FINANCE .826 .858 .847 .815 .891 .815 SOFTWARE .818 .803 .818 .803 .803 .742 GREEN .806 .741 .806 .838 .838 .806 MILITARY .789 .815 .815 .815 .868 .842 INSURANC .781 .75 .781 .812 .812 .781 SP-100 .75 .75 .76 .75 .812 .802 INDMATER .739 .76 .782 .771 .793 .793 SEMI .738 .738 .761 .738 .707 .707 NIFTY .733 .766 .8 .733 .8 .833 ELECTRON .727 .738 .761 .75 .722 .716 SOLAR .714 .666 .761 .761 .666 .666 TRANSP .7 .7 .8 .75 .9 .8 SP500 .686 .696 .727 .729 .762 .731 INDEXES .683 .716 .75 .754 .745 .75 MORNSTAR .68 .71 .747 .731 .768 .76 ETFS .676 .753 .8 .8 .846 .846 NASD-100 .67 .681 .704 .704 .738 .75 RUS-1000 .665 .654 .686 .69 .728 .714 HACKERS .64 .64 .72 .76 .76 .64 COMPUTER .608 .565 .652 .608 .565 .521 GAMING .607 .607 .642 .642 .642 .571 UTILITY .604 .581 .697 .697 .72 .767 CHINA .593 .625 .687 .671 .687 .703 EDU .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 COMODITY .528 .571 .557 .571 .528 .585 OILGAS .513 .5 .534 .541 .604 .597 RETAIL .509 .509 .49 .472 .527 .381 N=37 ============================================================================================== BEVERAGE .5 .55 .55 .55 .55 .55 ============================================================================================== BIOTECH .48 .547 .568 .607 .635 .63 FOOD .466 .533 .466 .4 .4 .466 REIT .314 .393 .455 .511 .556 .651 HOSPITAL .25 .625 .75 .75 .75 .75 JETS .222 .333 .555 .222 .555 .333 GOLD .14 .14 .16 .26 .28 .32 BONDFUND .026 .071 .151 .205 .25 .375 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=8
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