TigerSoft Hotline
(C) 2016 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
www.tigersoft.com
william_schmidt@hotmail.com
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=================================
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HELP
A
Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction
to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless
Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different
Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
Peerless Signals and DJI
Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965
1965-6 1966
1966-7
1967
1967-8
1968
1968-9
1969
1969-70 1970
1970-1
1971
1971-2 1972
1972-3
1973 1973-4
1974
1974-5 1975
1975-6
1976 1976-7
1977
1977-1978
1978
1978-79
1979
1979-80
1980
1980-1
1981
1981-2
1982
1982-1983
1983 1983-1984
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1985
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1986
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1990
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1992
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1996-7
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2005 2005-6
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2007
2007-8
2008
2008-9
2009
2009-10
2010
2010-11
2011
2011-12
2012
2012-2013
Documentation for
TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable
support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY
Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized
Signals.
Previous Hotlines -
www.tigersoft.com/55HL55/INDEX.html
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016
--->
Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016
--->
High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 --->
Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at
Lower Band.
2/12/2016 --->
OBV NNCs on
DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
Earlier
Q-Answers
New
QuickSilver Documentation
(1/11/2016)
Our Different Signals
Better
understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and
the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to
Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
===================================================================================
Peerless/TigerSoft Hotlines and
Links
8/25/2016
The Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14) tell us that
the current decline will most likely not drop the DJI down 5% from its high.
Since 1945, only about once every 31 months, does the DJI fall 5% from its high
without a reliable Peerless Sell at or near the last peak.
Usually, a decline of 5% or more occurs when breadth is lagging the DJI.
a large H/S top appears and or the Accum. Index is glaringly red
as the DJI reaches a level 2.1% or more above the 21-dma. None of these
conditions have recently appeared
However, it is clear now that the DJI seems to be unable to get past the
(red) rising resistance line shown below. With that resistance being taken
as the ceiling for any advance now, traders in the DJI are showing that they
want to buy closer to the 65-dma where there is then more upside potential.
SOXL and
TECL, on the other hand, appear to have less resistance
overhead. They also show better internals than the DJI. As long as
their 5-day ma are rising, I would hold them in expectation of a Labor
Day Rally. But further DJI weakness will hurt them. This and the
fact that volume and volatility are likely to expand after Labor Day makes
me suggest that we simply trade long only those ETFs so long as their
5-day ma is rising.
We do see micro-sized H/S patterns in the DIA and SPY now. Any deeper
decline will violate them. This will prpbably be bearish enough to
drop them
back to their rising 65-dma. But without a Peerless Sell, I would expect
the 65-dma to hold. All the stocks' research I have done on
head/shoulders
supports the same conclusion. Head/Shoulders patterns that are completed
considerably above the 65-day ma can only be counted on to bring tests of
the 65-dma. Deeper declines are particularly unlikely when the 65-dma
momentum
is still strong and the Accum Index is positive. When we look at DIA and
SPY,
we see that their 65-dma are still rising nicely and the their Accum Indexes
are still positive.
 |
 |
More Considerations
Right now there are only 4 DJI-30 stocks that show their own bearish
Head/Shoulders
patterns. This is not enough to be scary. In each of the last 5 DJI
corrections
of more than 13%, no fewer than 12 or 13 of the DJI stocks had completed head/
shoulders before the decline could start in earnest.
Tomorrow at 10:00 Janet Yellen will make a speech on behalf of the FED. It
is
expected that she will say that keeping interest rates as low as they have been
runs too much risk of a speculative stock bubble, does not help the real Economy
and would be inflationary if the Economy were to be expanding normally. I
still doubt
if she will pin herself down about raising rates in September. I think
that she
is too cautious to do that.
Gold Stocks, Utilities and the DJI have been selling off in expectation, I
think,
that she will be more specific and definite about raising rates in September.
If
I am right, she will be vague and indefinite about when rates will next be
raised.
That ought to take some of the pressure of the market and a pre-Labor day
rally "should" occur.
But to be safe, watch the 5-day mvg, averages of the pivot-points of the
key ETFs. I would be long those that show rising 5-day ma and remain
above their pivot-points for tomorrow's close.
5-day ma Close Pivot Point
Comments
direction 8/25 for 8-26
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
Falling 184.37
185.32
SPY
Falling 217.7
218.54
QQQ
Falling 116.61
117.26
Cl.Pwr is rising.
IWM
Rising 123.31
122.94 Cl.Pwr
is rising.
SOXL
Rising
42.35 42.22
Both Op.Pwr.& Cl.Pwr. rising.
TECL
Rising
46.07 46.10
Cl.Pwr is rising.
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
Watch for Head/Shoulders Patterns
in the Groups/ETFs You Trade
The
recent sell-off in Gold and Silver stocks did not come out of the
blue. Many of the stocks in this hot industry group showed head/shoulders
tops recently. This should have allowed traders to confidently predict a
test of their rising 65-dma, at the least. See
NEM and ASA below.
Also AEM,
GG,
KGC,
GFI,
GDX,
CDE,
NGD and
RGLD
 |
 |
==================================================================================
8/24/2016
I keep expecting our standing Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14)
to start a nice recovery in here. But something negative is clearly
weighing down the
DJIA, gold stocks (the previously strongest group) and Utilities (another
previously
very strong group). Today, this dark shadow finally sent technology and
semi-conductors down. Short-term traders must appreciate that though
the intermediate-term trend is still up, we could see a decline to 18000 on the
DJI or even a 5% drop from the recent high to 17800 if the next support
down at 18250 is violated. See the research I posted here last
night. My
suggestion is that ETF traders should trade long only those ETFs with a
rising 5-dma.
ETFs
8/24 5-dma
IP21
Close Pivot Point
------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
185.66 186.34
+.137 5-dma falling
SPY
217.85 218.86
+.184 5-dma falling
QQQ
116.8 117.29
+.189 5-dma falling
IWM
123.07 122.94
+.117
SOXL
41.84 41.15
+.107 Strongest of the 6
TECL
45.89 45.97
+.132 5-dma falling
Weakness tomorrow could easily complete the bearish-looking
"micro-head/shoulders
in the DJI". 18250 looks like it would then be the next DJI support
that will have to be tested.
Look for An Increase in Volatility and Volume
Given the "high diving board" appearance of many of the ETFs and the tendency of
of volatility to pick up when their is a decisive breakout or breakdown from
narrow
ranges like those that now govern DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM
plus the tendency of trading
volume to pick up after Labor Day, I recommend that
traders only get or stay long
the ETFs below when and while their 5-day mvg.avgs. are rising.
If their close tomorrow
is below the "pivot-point" shown below, it means the 5-day ma will be falling
with
tomorrow's data.
FED GUESSING
We can only guess right now what is driving the market down.. My
guess is that the
market expects the FED this weekend to announce that their (the Fed's) tools,
i.e. monetary policy (interest rate determinations and their own open market
activities) should no longer be relied on to boost the market. These tools
can stop a
Crash but they don't help much Main Street in a recovery or bring enough real
economic growth. Easy money and quantitative easing, the argument goes,
are
distorting investments, causing a risky inflation of stock prices and only
making
the very rich on Wall Street even richer while the Middle Class and working
people's income stagnate.
My guess is that these well-known criticisms of the FED can no longer be pushed
aside. I suspect that the FED themselves will now invoke them when they
they
announce this weekend that rates must soon (September) be returned to more
normal levels barring an unforeseen drop in Jobs numbers in August.
===========================================================================
8/23/2016
Our Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14 and the
seasonal strength just before Labor Day should now turn the major
ETFs back up. Though the DJI sold off after opening up 100, breadth
remained very good and the NYSE A/D Line made another 12-month
high ahead of the DJI-30. Usually we need to worry about the market
when the A/D Line is lagging the DJI, not so often when it is leading the
DJI.
Right now, the DJIA is lagging our favorite ETF right now,
SOXL,
by enough so that I would prefer to buy SOXL or QQQ. I think we
should
wait for the DIA's 5-day mvg.avg.. to turn up to buy it. The DJIA is being
held back because of concerns about what Janet Yellen will say
this weekend from the Fed Governors' gathering in Wyoming.
It has been the FOMC's hawks that have been doing most of the talking
recently. This has caused Utilities to drop more than 5% down from their
peak and violate their 6-month price uptrend and their 65-dms. The same
new
concerns about a rate hike this year have caused
Gold Stocks to fall back
almost to their rising 65-dma.
But there's probably more than Rate Hike fears at work here. There
is new enthusiasm for more speculative bonds and stocks now that the
Economy has been able to post two months' New Jobs' numbers over
250,000. Look at how strong
Junk Bonds are. In addition, the
NASDAQ's
"RELDJI" (relative strength vs the DJIA) is positive as it makes all-time
highs. Similarly, Semi-Conductors are outperforming the DJI and today
SOXL made a new all-time high to match its usual companion,
TECL.
I think we have to be buyers of SOXL and
QQQ now because their 5-day ma
are strong and technology stocks are taking over the leadership of the market
from the Utilities,
Gold Stocks and even the
DJI.
ETFs
8/23 5-dma
IP21
Close Pivot Point
------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
185.3 186.10
+.165 5-dma falling
SPY
218.97 218.37
+.267
QQQ
117.56 117.26
+.216
IWM
124.08 122.04
+.179
SOXL
42.95 40.26
+.243 Strongest of the 6
TECL
46.54 46.03
+.192 5-dma falling
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
Declines of 5% or more without a
Peerless Sell
Since 1945, about 71 years, there have been only 27 cases
where the DJI
fell more than 5% without Peerless having given a Sell. This means a DJI
decline of 5% to 11% occurred about once every 2.6 years without Peerless
giving an automatic warning. In bull markets making new highs, like the
present case, where Peerless was on a Buy, the biggest unheralded DJI declines
were from tops on:
Pct Decline
at nadir.
11/3/1982 7%
The previous top was 5.9% over 21-dma.
10/18/1991 7.0%
The previous top was 2.3% over 21-dma.
8/6/1997 7.4%
The previous top was 2.5% over 21-dma.
In all but 3 of all 27 cases, the previous top before the decline was
at least 1% over the 21-day ma. Our most recent top on 8/15/2016 was
only 0.7% over the 21-day ma. Only one of 27 of the "uncalled" tops took
place so close to the 21-day ma. (The full list will be provided in a day
or two.)
===================================================================================
8/22/2016
Our Peerless Buys
(Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14 and the
seasonal strength just before Labor Day should now turn the DJI and the major
ETFs back up. It will take only a small advance tomorrow at the
close to turn up
most of the key 5-day ma up. A close above the key values listed below
will turn each up. I'm optimistic also because of the rising
HRDJI OBV-DISI
and the persistent strength of the A/D
Line.
ETFs
8/22 5-dma
IP21
Close Pivot Point
------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
185.12 185.76
+.185
SPY
218.63 217.96
+.267
QQQ
117.35 117.05
+.276
IWM
123.22 122.4
+.187
SOXL
42.27 40.28
+.286 Strongest of the 6
A close over 43 would be an all-time high.
TECL
46.04 46.09
+.192
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
What To Buy?
I would choose SOXL if it advances past 43 to
an all-time high.
What else will lead a rally in here? Typically, the
Bullish MAXCPs do well.
So, do any stocks that give a new Red Stochastic Buy. Looking at the
individual DJI stocks, I would favor those showing the highest current
Accum. Index. MRK's IP21 is the highest at +.398. INTC's IP21 is
+.278. Consider also buying CVX, whose AI/200 score is 192 if it can close
decisively back above its 65-dma. I would like to
AAPL move to a new
recovery high to destroy its micro-Head/Shoulders pattern.
==================================================================================
8/19/2016
A day or two more of weakness seems likely. Then seasonal
strength should bring a rally to new highs.
The Next Two Weeks
Seasonality should bring a good rally soon into Labor Day,
September 5th. Reflecting this, since 1965, the DJI has risen
59.2% of the time over the next 10 trading days. In Presidential
Election Years, the odds of a rally shift to 66.7% if the
past since 1968 is taken as a guide.
Downside Risk Seems Limited
Without a Peerless Sell, the micro-head/shoulders patterns will
probably not bring a DJI drop below 18400. Buy TECL back
either
when its 5-day ma turns back up or at its 43 support.
Our Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
are confronting a market that seems, for now, to have lost its ability to
rise with any vigor. Part of the problem is the way both NYSE Up
and Down Volume are drooping in the heat of August.
The DJI will need to rise by more than 80 at its close on
Monday to turn up its 5-day ma.
What's causing the subsidence and drying up of aggressive
buying? The rise in Crude Oil.
It will bring more inflation and this
will strengthen the determination of the anti-inflation "hawks
in the Federal Reserve. Reflecting this, the
DJI-15 (Utilities) fell back on
Friday from its 65-dma resistance. My own belief is that the FED
will not raise rates this year. It does not want to make the
same mistake it did in 2008. Utilities may hold back, though,
in expectation of higher rates next year.
The NASDAQ is developing into a problem, too. It pushed to an
all-time high, but now seems stuck in a rising wedge. Its rallies
have produced tops that are not rising as fast as its up-trendline.
Its chart shows that a micro-head/shoulders could be forming.
But the NASDAQ's Accumulation Index (IP21) now is very
positive. This should mean that there will plenty of big buyers should
it fall back to the 5000 round number support.
And then there are the micro-head/shoulders in the DJI, SP-500,
DIA and SPY. Micro-head/shoulders patterns are rare, but they
can certainly bring declines back to a rising 65-dma. Without a
new Peerless Sell signal, it is very unlikely the DJI will fall below
the support at the 3.5% lower band and the rising 65-dma.
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
History of Head/Shoulders in DIA and SPY since
1995
There were 7 micro/mini Head/Shoulders on DIA since
1998.
All of these had a Peerless Sell signal first.
DIA
SPY
1995
N/A
none
1996
N/A
H/S in November aborted as prices rise above right
shoulder apex
1997
N/A
December - very quick and shallow decline only
1998
N/A
Aug - Multiple Peerless Sells. Big decline.
1999
May & Sept - Multiple Sells- Normal correction.
2000
Sept MACRO H/S
Sept -
Also Peerless Sell S4 at top.
2001
June
Feb - MICRO H/S & June
regular H/S - Peerless Sells. Bear Mkt.
2002
March MICRO H/S
Aug MICRO H/S - Peerless
Sells. Bear Mkt.
Also Peerless Sell S15 beforel top.
2003
2004
Sept MICRO H/S -
Peerless Sells. Interm. Decline.
2005
March MICRO H/S
March MICRO - Peerless
Sells. Interm. Decline
Also Peerless Sell S4 at top
2006
May
Nov - Peerless Sells. Interm. Decline
2007
Oct MICRO H/S
Peerless Sells. Intermed. Decline
Also Peerless Sell S4 at top.
2008
May MICRO H/S
June H/S - Peerless Sells. Bear Mkt.
Also Peerless Sell S4, S9, S15 at top.
2009
Aug MICRO - only shallow
decline
2010
April MINI H/S
April MINI H/S Peerless
Sell. Flash Crash
Also Peerless Sell S11 before top
2011
2012
Oct H/S
Sept. aborted.
2013
Aug H/S
Aug H/S October MICRO
2014
Oct/H/S
Nov H/S
2015
June MICRO H/S
FEB H/S & NOV H/S
Also Peerless Sell S12 at top
 |
 |
==================================================================================
8/18/2016
The operative Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
tells us any decline in here will soon be followed by more new highs.
The NYSE A/D Line bullishly made another new high ahead of the
DJIA itself. NYSE Down Volume keeps falling. And now the Hourly
DISI/OBV has turned up. So has the DJI-15 (Utilities), which got back
above its 65-dma. Meanwhile Crude Oil has risen back to its 65-dma
resistance but refuses to sell off. These are all constructive signs.
The past week's Hotlines present a number of studies suggesting
there will be more new highs:
1) The presence of only 2 head/shoulders patterns
in the DJI-30 compared to the 12 or 13 that appeared before
intermediate-term >13.5% selloffs in 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2016.
2) How well the market does each month until November
when the Democrat is about to win the Presidential Election.
3) How Semiconductors and TXN, in particular, usually top
out and show head/shoulders patterns before there is a serious
decline. Neither is true in here yet.
4) How a completed H/S pattern in the Utilities has brought
not a decline, but significant rallies for the DJI in each of its last 3
appearances since 2009 and the Federal Reserve's institution of "QE"
and "free money" for big banks.
5) How well the DJI does after after breaking out into all-time
high territory above well-tested flat resistance going back more than 5 months.
All this is very nice, but we do not want to let healthy profits slip away.
I suggest that traders close out volatile ETFs if their 5-day ma should
turn down. Therefore watch the QuickSilver 5-day ma pivot points,
as posted below. And let's also watch the short-term price patterns of
the key ETFs. These could be forming micro-H/S patterns. After our
experience with mini-H/S patterns in 2010, I think we have to be alert
for such patterns and not dismiss them. Another "flash crash" is
could happen. Perhaps, Obama's move to de-privatize prisons is an
opening salvo that could adversely affect other stocks and even the
market as a whole.
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
The Market Does Not Like Sudden Changes
or De-Privatizations. The Obama Administration
has announced it will end he use of private for-profit
prisons. Might this spook the market? CXW lost
1/3 of its value today. Might there be other
moves to de-privatize that we should be looking at
as short sales? This does create a negative "buzz"
for certain other stocks. Someone on Yahoo wrote:
"Are private insurers next? UNH, HUM, AET? Government
may put pressure on them since they are raising rates so high (sic)
for next years."
https://gma.yahoo.com/justice-department-announces-effort-end-private-prisons-172756594--abc-news-topstories.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1
Potential Micro-H/S Patterns have appeared.
A rally tomorrow would bullishly abort them. But
a sell-off and a close below their green necklines
would complete them.
 |
 |
2010 Mini-H/S in DJIA/DIA
|
I would not be too concerned yet about the appearance of
what might become micro-head/shoulders pattern in the DJI, NASDAQ,
SP-500, OEX and NYSE if they should make a 10 day closing low. The
completion of such patterns would "probably" have only minor and
very short-term significance. See the potential micro-H/S pattern just
above.
I have circled them in pink and the neckline-supports are shown in green.
It would take a sharp sell-off over the next two trading days to break their
necklines. If these necklines were broken, caution would be then required,
remembering April 2010's quick mini H/S tops just after the British Pete.
big spill in the Gulf of Mexico. That brought a "flash crash" and a
13.5%
decline.
2010 Flash Crash Mini H/S Patterns in DIA and SPY shown
below
took 18 days to form and be completed. Our micro-H/S patterns now have
been traced out over only 9 days, so far. Red Down-Day volume was
also noticeably higher as the markets started down in 2010. So, I doubt
if these micro-H/S patterns will be completed or be as bearish if they are.
 |
 |
On the other hand, a rally here would obliterate these patterns
and that would be bullish. I think this is a good time to watch and use
the 5-day ma. Declines by the major ETFs belowtheir 5-dma pivot points
tomorrow should be used to take profits and Sell.
Last night, I suggested applying this rule. That would have meant selling
TECL and BRZU today. See the pivot points on their charts. Remember
that
a close below those levels on Friday will cause their 5-day ma to be falling,
which in the present circumstances I would take to be a QuickSilver Sell.
8/18/2016 QuickSilver Key Values and Big ETFs
ETF Closing 5-dma
Closing IP21 ITRS
Price Pivot Point
Powers
to apply
to tomorrow's
Close
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 186.34
185.9
NH
NC +.19
------
SPY 218.86
218.46
rising +.242
-.004
QQQ 117.29
117.20 rising
+.262 +.028
IWM 122.94
122.19 rising
+.126 +.003
SOXL 41.15
39.52
rising +.302
+.278
TECL 45.97
46.41
rising +.181
+.153
BRZU 150.5
152.43
rising +.11 +.555
YINN 19.19
18,19 rising
+.28 +.235
==================================================================================
8/17/2016
The operative Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
remain in effect. We should see more new highs.
But the shallow short-term decline
we are seeing now is apt to continue
if there is not a rally tomorrow. We can say this based on the fact that
the
"pivot-points" (for the 5-day ma) could easily be closed below at tomorrow's
close. A close below these pivot points will cause their
5-day ma
to turn down. Short term traders in volatile and leveraged ETFS should
probably take profits in these ETFs when they close below their "5-dma
pivot-points". TECL's 6-dma did turn down today. Let's lock in profits
in it. Elsewhere, intermediate-term investors can wait to Sell when we get a
a new Peerless sell signal or a head/shoulders pattern is completed in them.
ETF Closing 5-dma
Closing IP21 ITRS Tiger
Price Pivot Point
Powers
Signal
to apply
to tomorrow's
Close
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
186.1
186.3
NH NC +.163
------ Buy
SPY 218.37
218.65
rising +.227
-.006
Buy
QQQ 117.26
117.25 rising
+.282 +.027
Sell
IWM 122.04
122.07 rising
+.116 +.001
Sell
SOXL 40.26
39.02
rising +.278
+.268 Sell
TECL 46.03
46.62
rising +.212
+.161 Buy
BRZU 153.41
158.42
rising +.126
+.824 Sell
YINN 18.76
18.04 rising
+.275 +.217
Buy
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
How many head/shoulders tops typically appear
among DJI-30 stocks at market tops?
Presently there only 2 two such H/S patterns among DJI-30 stocks:
JNJ and VZ.
Before January 2016 top: 12 DJI stocks showed H/S patterns.
(AAPL,
DIS, GS,
JNJ, MMM,
MSFT, NKE,
UNH, UTX,
V, VZ and
XOM.)
Before July 2015 top: 13 DJI stocks showed H/S patterns.
(BA, CAT,
CSCO, CVX,
DD, DIS,
GS, JNJ,
NKE, PG,
UTX, VZ,
XOM)
Before July 2011 top: 12 DJI stocks showed H/S patterns.
(AAPL,
AXP, BA,
CAT (hands above head),
HD, JPM,
MMM, MRK,
NKE, PFE,
UNH, WMT)
Before April 2010 top: 12 DJI stocks showed H/S patterns.
(CSCO, GE,
HD, IBM,
JNJ, JPM,
KO, MCD,
MSFT, PG,
TRV, WFC,
and see DIA's H/S top, too.)
==================================================================================
8/16/2016
The break in the Closing Power uptrend for DIA following its
failure to confirm the recent high is bearish enough to allow
the DJI to retest 18300, and DIA 183,
provided DIA closes
below 185.12 tomorrow and its 5-dma therefore turns down.
A further shallow decline would then be called for. But without
a new Peerless Sell, I would continue to hold long positions in
TECL, SOXL,
LBJ, BRZU
and YINN.
When Peerless operates under major Buys as now
(Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14), there can still
be
DJI declines to the lower band, but they are relatively
rare and we generally are better off waiting for higher prices.
I think that applies now, despite the completion by the Utilities
of a second head/shoulders pattern this year. See the
Utilities'
H/S Top Pattern Study further below.
Of more concern would be the appearance of a number of
completed head/shoulders
patterns in the DJI-30.
Presently, there are only two such H/S patterns among DJI-30 stocks:
JNJ and VZ. By contrast, before the DJI's big January sell-off this year,
no fewer than 12 DJI stocks showed H/S patterns. Look at their charts.
Except for JNJ and VZ, no others show such bearish patterns. I think
this has to be considered another bullish factor for now: See all these
Jan 2016 H/S DJI stocks: AAPL,
DIS, GS,
JNJ, MMM,
MSFT, NKE,
UNH, UTX,
V, VZ and
XOM. This would make a useful study
for earlier
declines. I will try to do a little more work here and start to regularly
report the number of currently extant DJI H/S patterns.
Stay long this market...
Charts:Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish
MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
What happens when DJI-Utilities completes a
head/shoulders
pattern and Peerless does not show a major Sell?
There have been 9 cases since 1988. In 5 cases the DJI fell to or near
to the lower 3.5% band. But in 4 cases, the DJI rallied instead of
falling.
In the last 3 cases, when there was no Peerless Sell, the DJI rallied.
It is more bearish, when charts show more than one head/shoulders pattern.
The DJI-15 also completed a head/shoulders pattern in April.
---> See all the Utilities
and DJI charts since 1988 here.
DJI-15 (Utilities) H/S Completed
DJI reaction
1 H/S Pattern completed in July 1989 -->
DJI fell 3.8% below 21-dma. No Peerless sell signal.
2 H/S Pattern completed in Aug 1992 --> DJI fell
3.5% below 21-dma. No Peerless sell signal.
3 H/S Pattern completed in Sept 1993 --> DJI fell
2.5% below 21-dma. No Peerless sell signal.
4 H/S Pattern completed in Nov 1995 --> DJI
rose instead of falling. No
Peerless sell signal.
5 H/S Pattern completed in June 2007 --> DJI fell
2.0% below 21-dma. No Peerless sell signal.
6 H/S Pattern completed in Dec 2009 --> DJI fell 4.0%
below 21-dma. No Peerless sell signal.
7 H/S Pattern completed in Aug 2012 --> DJI
rose instead of falling. No
Peerless sell signal.
8 H/S Pattern completed in May 2013 --> DJI
rose instead of falling. No
Peerless sell signal.
9 H/S Pattern completed in May 2014 --> DJI
rose instead of falling. No
Peerless sell signal.
================================================================================
8/15/2016 The still active Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
should continue to guide us. But the shift away from dividend to tech
stocks and the strongest of Chinese and Emerging markets intensified.
Today, the DJI-15 (Utilities) closed below both its rising 65-dma and its 5%
down-from-the high line. This is a bearish sign for utilities and
dividend plays, generally. But the investment shift away from dividends
to growth is long over-due and usually occurs naturally in an economic
recovery. I suspect the DJI will show some minor weakness now to reflect
this shift. You can see the Hourly
DJI's DISI-OBV Line is in a minor down-
trend. Fortunately, NYSE Down
Volume is bullishly in its own downtrend.
Utilities Have Broken Their Uptrend-line.
Both Opening and Closing Power are falling.
SOXL, TECL,
YINN and BRZU
should keep rising and should not
be sold until Peerless gives a Sell
or they form Head/Shoulders tops.
SOXL (Semi-conductors) rose to a recovery new high above 40 and
is now challenging its all-time high of 42.46 on June 1, 2015. Since
semi-conductors
are such a capital intensive industry, a breakout into all-time high territory
by SOXL
would have to be taken as as an important vote of confidence that economic
growth
will increase world-wide. The same interpretation, that there is a
world-wide
turnaround under way, also would explain the powerful rebound of
Crude
Oil up from its test of its
200-day ma.
Our favorite technical pick, TECL (3x-technology ETF), closed at 48 today,
up exactly 20% since its perfect, flat-topped July 13th breakout into all-time
high territory. Continue to hold both SOXL and TECL. They trade very
well
with the Peerless signals.
Today also brought a very big jump in some volatile and speculative Chinese
stocks. YINN has almost gotten back to 20. Look at the beautifully
bullish Chinese stock charts of WB,
BABA,
CQQQ and
SINA.
Charts: Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish Stocks not posted tonight.
Charts of Key ETFs
One explanation for today's shift to NASDAQ stocks - and the NASDAQ
made an all-time high today - is that the Governor of the San Francisco Fed
made the case for Congress exacting automatic fiscal stimulants for
when the US economy is weak and inflation is not a problem so that
the FED will not have to use monetary stimulants so much. It is surprising
to hear a member of the Federal Reserve take such a Keynesian view, even
to the point where he seems to be advocating a big new Public Works program.
(Would this work, assuming Congress would somehow go along with it? As I
see it, there are two big problems with Public Works spending, which is
certainly
badly needed, are, first, that it will drive up interest rates and this will
hurt all
those seniors who are now overloaded with low-interest bonds and dividend
stocks. AND, second, that the famous Keynesian multiplier is much smaller
now, because so little manufacturing is still done in the US. Public
works
spending may have more of a stimulative effect for China than America!
See ....
SF Fed Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Search SF Fed ... 2016-23 |
August 15, 2016
====================================================================================
8/12/2016 Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14 operate
still.
We could fuss over the low volume or how DIA's
Closing Power is not
above its 21-day ma, but these are not so bearish as to bring much of
a decline and I think there is more potential elsewhere anyway.
It does not pay to tell the DJIA or
the overall market to go down
after a flat-topped breakout from a 6-months or more trading range,
such as we saw when the DJI cleared 18000 and then 18000 recently,
which then goes into all-time high ground. Such patterns take a long
time to be built. They normally set up really nice advances unless
Peerless gives a Sell signal. Look at the cases of
Jan 1987,
Dec
1991,
March 1995,
October 1996,
May 1997,
Feb 1999 and see how failed breakout
of Jan. 2000 was properly identified as such by Peerless Sell signals.
The "talking heads" tell us August and September are bearish months
and the market can go nowhere at time of year. But, I've shown recently
that
when a Democrat is ahead in the Presidential Polls, as long as we are
not at war or suffering an economic slow-down/melt-down, the odds are better
than 2:1 that August will up, that September will be up and that October will be
up.
The Market as "Suction-Cup Climbing Man".
The market reminds me of the man using suction-cups climbing Trump Towers.
It is creeping upwards despite all the bearish commentary. As long as
there
is no rain in the form of Hillary pushing to breakup the big banks, to tax computer
trading or to make the tax on capital gains the same as ordinary income, I expect
the "suction-cup" market should continue to rise steadily if not dramatically.
I think there is a good chance that there is an international economic
turn-around. A Trump resurgence and protectionism would dampen
the rises in Chinese,
Brazil and
Latin American stocks, as would another
sell-off in Crude Oil. But right now,
there appears to be considerable upside
potential in these non-US markets' stocks. Watch also
Semi-Conductors (SOXL)
to see if it can make an all-time high above 42. Our favorite
TECL keeps
rising, after its perfect breakout above 40. Below I list 21 stocks/ETFs
that are trading particularly well with our Peerless Buys and Sells. Until
we get a Peerless sell signal, I expect the most bullish of these to keep
rising.
I will post their data on Tiger's Data Page as BIGPEER.exe Monday night.
Charts: Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
WHAT STOCKS/HAVE BEEN TRADED BEST
WITH PEERLESS BUYS and SELLS?
I went through 6000 and came up with the 21
shown in TABLE 2, shown further below. Each of these would have seen
an investment of $10,000 in them double to more than $20,000 being
long only while Peerless was on a Buy signal in the last 12 months.
Big gains are nice, of course, but, in addition, which of these
did not produce a paper loss of more than 5% on their long positions?
Only AMKR and LOCK. Since LOCK has only been traded a few years. So
AMKR is of most interest. It is in the strong semi-conductor field.
Amkor Technology, Inc. provides outsourced semiconductor
packaging and test services in the United States and internationally.
Located in Tempe, AZ, the company offers turnkey packaging and
test services, including semiconductor wafer bumps, wafer probes,
wafer backgrinds, package design, packaging, and test and drop
shipment services.
As you can see below, only in 2012 was it not successfully traded with
Peerless on the long side. What I like about AMKR is how few large paper losses
there have been. We compare its gains and losses to DIA later tonight.
How well did Peerless do with AMKR for each of the last 10 years?
How consistently profitable. What about the big paper losses?
Could they have been anticipated? Look at the AMKR charts in the
years where the paper loss was more than 20%: 2008 (extreme bear market),
2013 and 2015.
Long Trades' Avg. Gain
using Peerless Buys and Sells.
All trades here are taken at next day's opening.
AMKR max paper DIA max QQQ max
loss gain loss gain loss
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 +57.3 -19.4% 5.0% -1.5% 13.9% -3.5%
2006 +45.0% -7.0% 15.5% -2.8% 11.7% -7.9%
2007 +37.6% -9.7% 26.5% -3.8% 29.6% -4.9%%
2008 +13.9% -30.0% 9.6% -16.2% 0.4% -19.0%
2009 +245.5% -9.3% 58.1% -3.4% 77.4% -3.8%%
2010 +126.7% -6.9% 36.9% -3.0% 62.1% -4.1%%
2011 +17.7% -10.6% 21.2% -5.5% 17.7% -7.2%%
2012 -7.8% -11.5% 17.2% -2.4% 21.4% -3.2%%
2013 +38.7% -26.1% 26.4% -1.4% 29.5% -3.1%%
2013-2014 +219.3% -4.6% 21.8% -1.4% 23.2% -3.1%%
2014 +36.9% -13.3% 16.4% -6.4% 26.0% -3.6%%
2015 +12.9% -29.6% 14.1% -1.9% 18.8% -2.1%%
2015-2016 +132.1% -3.2% 14.5% -2.6% 19.0% -8.9%
Peerless Signals and Trading Gains Starting with $10000
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Directory=C:\goodpeer
8/ 18/ 15- 8/ 12/ 16
Number of Symbols= 21
Symbol $10000. Biggest-- Gains/Losses 5% Stops- 10% Stops
------ becomes Paper---- ------------ triggered triggered
------ ------- Loss Pct
============================================================================
ADXS Long 28125 25.8 4 1 2 2
ADXS Short 18857 8 4 1
combined +474%
AGTC Long 21005 15.2 4 1 3 2
AGTC Short 15305 19.6 4 1 1
combined +231%
AMKR Long 22283 3.2 3 2 NONE NONE
AMKR Short 13059 10.8 3 1 2 1
combined +231%
ANIP Long 23488 8.1 4 1 1
ANIP Short 13179 6.2 3 1 1
combined +275%
ARWR Long 20523 6.1 3 2 1
ARWR Short 16029 6.1 4 1
combined +250%
AVP Long 23136 32.3 3 2 2 1
AVP Short 12060 33.5 3 1 1 1
combined +199%
AXDX Long 28346 7.3 4 1 1
AXDX Short 18724 5.1 4 1
combined +445%
BCOV Long 25489 5.9 4 1 1
BCOV Short 10941 10.1 2 2 2 1
combined +180%
BRZU Long 39748 33.3 3 2 3 1
BRZU Short 12163 55.1 2 2 2 2
combined +422%
CECO Long 24002 11 2 3 3 2
CECO Short 12017 16.6 3 1 1 1
combined +194%
CSTM Long 27656 18.9 3 2 3 3
CSTM Short 18491 13.4 4 2 2
combined +452%
CYTK Long 25958 16.8 4 1 2 1
CYTK Short 14420 3.4 3 1 NONE NONE
combined +276%
HWAY Long 26028 15 3 2 1 1
HWAY Short 11949 7 3 1 1
combined +217%
JOY Long 22688 37.9 3 2 3 1
JOY Short 10646 35.5 3 1 2 1
combined +150%
KTOS Long 20449 22.2 2 3 3 1
KTOS Short 14565 6.4 3 1 2
combined +211%
LOCK Long 25545 3.8 4 1 NONE NONE
LOCK Short 13841 7.1 4 2
combined +267%
LXRX Long 23331 13.6 5 2 2
LXRX Short 14432 6 3 1 1
combined +240%
NKTR Long 26264 9.5 5 1
NKTR Short 16094 7 4 1
combined +336%
NPTN Long 27974 11.5 4 1 1 1
NPTN Short 12896 24.3 3 1 2 2
combined +272%
NUS Long 21890 15.2 5 1 1
NUS Short 13274 10.4 4 2 1
combined +198%
X Long 29502 35.7 3 2 2 1
X Short 14079 20.2 3 1 1 1
combined +363%
|
====================================================================================
8/11/2016 Our Peerless Buys
(Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
have properly kept us long as the SP-500,
NASDAQ and
DJI all made all-time high closings today.
With a little more
follow-through, I would say that the path of least resistance
is up.
Some minor profit-taking is a short-term, but
it looks like there will
be much more upside progress ahead. It would be nice to see
an increase in Up-Hour and Advancing Stocks' Volume. The
Hourly DJI's OBV Line broke its
uptrend-line today and the
V-Indicator is only slightly positive. But bullishly, there were 768
more up than down on the NYSE. TECL and
SOXL both rose.
Long depressed Emerging Economies' ETFs like those of Brazil and Latin
America (LBJ) continued to rise, boosted no doubt by the big jump in Crude
Oil prices. Considering how beaten down ETFs like
BRZU, LBJ
and UBR are, they should remain exceptionally
strong, certainly as long
as their Closing Powers are rising
and Peerless does not give a Sell signal.
Charts: Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
Table 1 below shows how well certain leveraged ETFs can be
traded on the long side, buying when Peerless gives a reversing Buy signal
and selling when Peerless gives a Sell Signal. The best are
A starting $10,000
would have now become
BRZU 3x Brazil
$41,266
UBR 2x Brazil
$26,456
LBJ Latin Amer.
$24,498
SOXL Semi-Cond.
$21,217
What makes BRZU so interesting is how well Peerless does in the past with
it. See
http://tigersoft.com/BRAZIL/index.html If the world economy is,
in fact, turning back upwards, as suggested by the strength we see in foreign
ETFs, YINN and
Crude Oil. then BRZU along with
UBR and LBJ could rise
a lot more. We have only to look at the 5-year charts of previously
depressed
JNUG and NUGT to see how far back upwards BRZU could still move.
"Long and Short" "Long"
Short
2001
+78.6% +31.5% +35.8%
2002
+62.1% +8.1% +50.0%
2003
+122.8% +124.9% -0.9%
2004
+87.2% +63.5% +14.5%
2005
+45.6% +45.6% no trades
2006
+133.7% +74.3% +34.1%
2007
+141.1% +119.8% +12.5%
2008
+155.3% +18.8% +115.0%
2009
+110.2% +108.8% +1.0%
2010
+29.3% +18.5% +9.2%
2011
+87.2% +24.3% +50.6%
2012
data not available
2013
+55.3%
-14.2%
+59.4%
2014
-29.4%
-64.7%
+30.0%
2015
+471.9%
+58.2
+258.7%
2015-2016 +583.2%
+367.0% +38.5%
BRZU DAILY
BRZU WEEKLY
| |
|
|
Table 1
Peerless returns on Leveraged ETF Longs over 50% in last Year,
excluding precious metals.Peerless Signals and Trading Gains Starting with $10000
-------------------------------------------------------
Directory=C:\leverage
8/ 17/ 15- 8/ 11/ 16
Symbol $10000. Biggest-- Gains/Losses 5% Stops- 10% Stops
------ becomes Paper---- ------------ triggered triggered
------ ------- Loss Pct
============================================================================
BRZU Long 41266 33.3 3 2 3 1
BRZU Short 12163 55.1 2 2 2 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURE Long 16418 3.9 3 2
CURE Short 13606 4.1 3 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRN Long 18461 16.3 5 1 1
DRN Short 12736 17.2 3 1 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDC Long 17141 31.8 3 2 2 1
EDC Short 13472 17.8 2 2 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDL Long 16700 30.3 3 2 2 1
INDL Short 16158 9 3 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LBJ Long 24498 27.4 3 2 3 1
LBJ Short 12010 40 2 2 2 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL Long 18147 12 4 1 2 1
RETL Short 13441 6.2 3 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROM Long 15286 5.9 3 2 1
ROM Short 13192 6.6 4 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL Long 21217 11.2 3 2 1 1
SOXL Short 13599 13.2 4 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL Long 17252 9.4 2 3 1
TECL Short 13622 11 4 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TNA Long 18676 12.4 2 3 2 1
TNA Short 14950 10.5 4 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TQQQ Long 16675 9.4 3 2 2
TQQQ Short 14825 5.9 4 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UBR Long 26456 21.4 3 2 2 1
UBR Short 10722 37.7 2 2 2 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UDOW Long 15556 7 3 2 1
UDOW Short 12348 10.3 2 2 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPRO Long 15335 9.8 3 2 1
UPRO Short 12563 9.8 2 2 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URE Long 15116 9 5 1
URE Short 11906 9.1 3 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URTY Long 18702 12.3 2 3 2 1
URTY Short 14876 10.6 4 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USD Long 17395 6.5 4 1 1
USD Short 12897 9 4 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UWM Long 15447 8.1 3 2 1
UWM Short 13203 6.8 4 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN Long 15986 32.7 3 2 3 1
YINN Short 16287 13.7 2 2 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8/10/2016 Our Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B14
still stand. The Hourly DJI
and Utilities are now at good
short-term support, but today's trading produced short-term
red (optimized Tiger) Sells on IWM,
MDY, SPY,
VGK, XOP
and YINN. A small retreat for them
would not be a bad thing.
It would permit some consolidation and base-building.
I have to remain bullish until Peerless gives a major Sell.
Two new pieces of research support that conclusion. First,
I mentioned the importance of semi-conductors as "canaries
in the coal mine", warning of trouble. That is particularly true
of Texas Instruments (TXN). Since as far back as 1987, but
probably further, TXN has marked tops for it AND the overall
market by showing very timely, bearish head/shoulders patterns.
Since TXN shows none now, I think we must give it,
SOXL and the market
as a whole more room to run. See the study I am developing
further below.
Secondly, we are now in the Presidential Election Year, of course.
Since 1916, when the US was not itself at war or in a worsening
Depression or Financial crisis, the market has shown a strong
tendency to rally over the next three months when the Democrat
running for President was far out in
front of the Republican.
Like it or now, Trump keeps having problems conducting a successful
campaign in search of independent voters. His problems are mostly of
his own
making, but they also provide the establishment media just what they
need to work him over even more. I had thought
his needless clashes
with so many other
people would quickly end after his
Nomination. That
is not the case. So, his poll numbers are weakening
and his lack of
diplomatic and political skills appear now to be making
him his own worst
enemy.
Hillary Clinton is quite vulnerable, but Trump keeps turning
attention away from her failings to his own. That helps Democrats
and should aid stock market bulls until November.
Historically, the market seems to like Democrats in most Augusts, Septembers
and Octobers up to the Presidential Election. My new research on this topic
suggests we should not sell yet. If there is a retreat, it will
probably end up
being only a constructive, sidewise consolidation as the market sets up for
a rally into November. This, at least, was the case in
1916,
1936,
1940,
1964
and 1996.
2012 was the main exception.
Charts: Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
NO BIG DECLINE AT LEAST UNTIL TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
(TXN) FORMS A BEARISH TOP PATTERN.
Before nearly every big DJI decline since 1987, TXN formed either a bearish
head/shoulders top pattern or a "hands above the head" speculative top.
All these charts will be shown tomorrow night. This was true before the
January 2016 general market sell-off. See chart below. That we still
do
not see a top developing in TXN should give us some faith that still higher
prices lie ahead for the general market.
1987 Head/Shoulders
1989 early Head/Shoulders
1990 "hands above the head" speculative top.
1997 Head/Shoulders
1998 Head/Shoulders
Jan 2000 Head/Shoulders
2000 Head/Shoulders
2002 Head/Shoulders
2007 Head/Shoulders
2008 Head/Shoulders
2010 Flat - DJI high not confirmed
2011 Head/Shoulders
Aug 2015 already falling
Jan 2016 Head/Shoulders
==============================================================
HOW DJI BEHAVES IN SECOND HALF OF
PRES.ELECTION YEAR
WHEN DEMS WIN WHITE HOUSE: 1916-2012.
(All DJI charts)
DJI Chart
Aug Sept
Oct Nov
Aug 10 Nov 7 Background
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1916
377 vs 254 up
up up
flat
98.10 107.2
US not at war.
1932 472 vs
59 up
flat
down down
69.4
64.6 Depression worsening
1936 523 vs
8 flat
up up
down
168.8 188.3
Depression not worsening.
1940 449 vs
82 up
flat up
down
126.4 137.8
US not at war.
1944 432 vs
99 down up
flat up
145.7 147.9
US at war.
1948 303 vs
189 down flat
up down
180
178.4 Dewey expected to win
1964 486 vs
52 up
up flat
down
829.4 876.9
US not at war.
1976 297 vs
240 flat down
up up
999.43 943.07
Economic Stagnation.
1996 379 vs
159 flat up
up up
5681
6206 Bull Market
2008 365 vs
173 flat
down down
down
11734 8943
Depression worsening
2012 332 vs
206 up
up
down down
13208 12933
Economic Stagnation.
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5 up 6 up
6 up 3 up
6 up
2 down 2 down 3 down 7
down 5 down
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8-9-2016 See
Hotline here.
===================================================================================
8-8-2016 Our Peerless Buys (Buy
B3, Buy B19,
Buy B20 and
Buy-B1
still stand. Though the
DJI slipped back a
little, there were
more up than down and the
Hourly DISI/OBV
trend is still rising, too.
The
DIA's Closing Power's
trend is no longer up, but this indicator
is decidedly pointing higher for the
OEX,
SPY,
QQQ,
IWM,
TECL,
SOXL,
IBB and
FAS. Also making recovery
highs today were
the
foreign ETFs,
Brazil,
emerging markets and
YINN.
I doubt if a turn downwards now by the
DJI or the Utilities will stop
the general movement higher. There are
enough periods when
the DJ-15 falls while the DJI-30 rises ,
so that I think we should not
place too much emphasis on it. See
Utilities
since 1988 study.
Generally speaking, Wall Street is
probably pleased that Trump
is dropping in the recent polls. I also
continue to believe that the
FED will not raise rates until November,
after the Presidential
Election.
Charts: Peerless
DJIA Hourly DJIA
DIA
NetIDOSC for DJI-30
SPY
QQQ
IWM
DJI-Utilities REITS
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
SOXL
TECL
IBB
FAS
Crude Oil
Major Indexes and A/D
Lines.
Key Tiger Software ETF
Charts
Bullish
MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
Charts of Key ETFs
The Peerless Buys and Sells have worked
well for most of the
last year. "It's important to do
nothing if nothing needs to be done"
(JFK, the conservative.)
Tiger Index of
Stocks Peerless Signals' Gain
since Oct 28, 2015
(Buying and Selling Short
at opening the day after
a reversing Peerless signal)
DJI-30
50.9%
OEX-100
51.1%
QQQ-100
48.2%
SP-500
44.3%
RUSS-1000
46.7%
BIG BANKS
91.0%
BIOTECHS
106.2%
COMMODITIES
only +12.5%
FOREIGN ETFS
136.6%
GOLD
only 15.1%
NIFTY-35
54.7%
OIL STOCKS
only 14.0%
FAS
+117%
IBB
+63.4%
SOXL
+195.8%
TECL
+143.3%
TNA
+190.8%
Tiger says to sell SOXL. Peerless does not say to
sell it yet.
42.6 is its 5-year high. See second weekly chart
below. We
should get back there on this advance.
Weekly Resistance on SOXL
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