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(C) 2017 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
www.tigersoft.com
william_schmidt@hotmail.com

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                             HELP
 A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
 Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
 Peerless Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
 Individual Peerless signals explained:
       
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
      http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/ 
 Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
 Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
 Peerless Signals and DJI Charts  - version 7/4/2013
              1965   1965-6    1966   1966-7    1967    1967-8    1968   1968-9   1969      1969-70   1970   1970-1 1971
              1971-2  1972  1972-3    1973   1973-4   1974     1974-5     1975   1975-6     1976    1976-7     1977 1977-1978
              1978  1978-79     1979   1979-80   1980    1980-1   1981    1981-2   1982     1982-1983     1983    1983-1984
              1984  1984-1985 1985 1985-1986    1986  1986-1987  1987    1987-8  1988 1988-9   1989    1989-90
              1990  1990-1  1991   1991-2  1992   1992-3    1993   1993-4   1994   1994-5   1995     1995-1996   1996
              1996-7  1997   1997-8    1998    1998-1999   1999    1999-2000   2000      2000-1   2001   2001-2   2002
              2002-3  2003   2003-4    2004   2004-5     2005   2005-6    2006    2006-7    2007    2007-8    2008    2008-9
              2009   2009-10    2010    2010-11    2011   2011-12   2012  2012-2013  2013  2013-2014   2014   2014-2015
              2015   2015-2016



 Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
 How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma? 

 SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.


Previous Hotlines -  www.tigersoft.com/55HL55/INDEX.html
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


1/19/2016  ---> Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016  ---> High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016  ---> Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016  ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016  --->  Killer Short Selling Techniques:   ===> Order Here ($42.50)
                  
It's As Easy as 1,2,3  
                 
                TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling...  Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
                 

                Earlier Q-Answers

             QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
            Our Different Signals
                       
Better understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
                                        the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
                                        on technical developments.

                              
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
                              
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators   

            
New TigerPeerless Installation and Basic Uses' Instruction (11/25/2016)
                   
 See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells. 
                          A few more pages will be added.  But users could print this
                          main Installation and Uses' Page for reference.

            
               
12-7-2016   The Tiger Elite Page will have a revised Peerless later tonight.
                     It gives the new Peerless Buy B4, not to be confused with
                     the revised Tiger Buy B4 for stocks and ETFs (buy at rising 65-dma)
                     and a revised Sell S7 (sell at falling 65-dma. 
Do not confuse TigerSoft Buys/Sells
                          with Peerless which are based on DJI and back-tested to 1928.
                          Examples:   CP-Divergence B7/S7
                                            Buy B4 at rising 65-dma
                                            Sell S7 at falling 65-dma


=========================================================================================================
                 1-17-2017 
                                            
 
                   >    
Breadth Is Bullish but Professionals Remain Bearish.

                      
>      Respect The Outcome of The Battle Going on between
                                Bulls and Bears in DJI-30. 


                   >    
Watch Goldman Sachs (GS) Tomorrow. 

                               
The DJI is moving farther and farther out to the end of what will either be
                                                a
flat and narrow trading range to propel itself higher on an upside breakout
                                                or a
high diving board from which a steep sell-off will soon follow. A breakout
                                                decisively above 20000 will bring a judged Peerless
 Buy B10 .  A breakdown
                                                close below 19680 will bring a Peerless
Judged S10 .  The DJI's tight price range
                                                that we are watching so closely started on December 13th.  If it is not resolved
                                                by the end of this week, it will be more than 5-weeks old.  Such longevity is
                                                usually bearish in these patterns. 





                                                                    

                                                             
High-Priced DJI Stocks Must Rally Tomorrow.

                                              
 Their importance is directly related to their price.  No other stock is
                                                nearly as important as GS, which declined much more than the others today.
 
                 DJI-13     One Day Performance
                                       1 / 13 / 2017 - 1 / 17 / 2017 
Rank          Symbol        Name                         Price        Pct.Gain      
---------     ------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 1            MCD           McDonalds Corp               122.75        1-2%                   
 2            IBM           Int Business Machines        167.89        0-1%                   
 3            HD            Home Depot Inc               135.93        0-1%             
 4            TRV           The Travelers Companies Inc  117.46        0-1%        
 5            JNJ           Johnson & Johnson            114.87        0-1%            
 6            AAPL          Apple Inc                    120           0-1%                     
 7            MMM           3M Company                   177.26       -1%          
 8            UNH           UnitedHealth Group Inc.      160.66       -1%              
 9            BA            Boeing Co                    157.67       -1%                       
 10           CVX           Chevron Corp                 116.28       -1%                      
 11           DIS           The Walt Disney Company      107.97       -1%           
 12           UTX           United Technologies Corp     109.97       -1%     
 13           GS            Goldman Sachs Group Inc      235.74       -4%              

                                                        



               

                                                                     GS's Opening Tomorrow May Be The Key

                                                Tomorrow morning before the opening Goldman Sachs is scheduled to announce its
                                                earnings.  How it behaves then will be very important, as Goldman Sachs (GS) is by far the
                                                most heavily weighted stock in the most watched index of the stock market,
                                                the DJI-30. 

                                                Today GS sold off partly because of general nervousness about its earnings plus the
                                                new President-Elect's criticism of a strong Dollar because of how it hurts exports
                                                and US manufacturing and helps imports of non-US goods.  Wall Street roots for a
                                                strong Dollar because they want the US to be the world's financial center.  They benefit
                                                enormously if wealthy foreigners put their money in the US.






                                                Today's 8+ point drop in GS sent nearly all banks and financials down.  FAS
                                                which closely rises and falls as the DJI does nearly broke its recent support.
                                                As these have been the leaders, such a breakdown would remove the biggest
                                                bullish sector propelling the market higher.



                                                                   The Rising QQQ and NASDAQ

                                                The QQQ and the NASDAQ are still in bullish uptrends.  Their up-slope is a modest
                                                20% annualized.  The years 2000 and 2007-2008 show that they can hold up for a
                                                month or two, if the DJI breaks down, but not much more than that.






                                              

                                    To Tiger/Peerless Charts:
                                                    

       1/17/17:      PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators   DJI-13   Hourly DJIA  
                              
S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ  COMPQX with Closing Power
                              DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 
 
                              Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities   DJI-Transp   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                              Crude Oil   FAS  GLD  IBB  JETS  JNUG NUGT  RSX  SLV  SOXL  TECL   YINN      
                              AAPLAMZNFBGOOG,  GS   MSFT


         1/17/17:                                Bullish MAXCP Stocks  (1/13/2017)  
 

 



                                        1/17/2017  Bearish MINCP Stocks   


 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
             1/17/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1oo%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            1oo%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          1oo%          1             1             1             .909          .818 
JETS           1oo%          1             1             1             1             .777 
REGBANKS       .972          1             1             1             1             1 
HOMEBLDG       .944          .944          .944          .888          .777          .722 
GOLD           .943          .679          .603          .603          .622          .603 
MORNSTAR       .911          .903          .899          .907          .907          .882 
FINANCE        .903          .913          .924          .913          .892          .881 
PIPELINE       .888          .888          .888          1             .777          1 
UTILITY        .866          .8            .822          .8            .666          .711 
NIFTY          .857          .885          .914          .914          .885          .885 
AUTO           .85           .875          .875          .925          .95           .925 
TRANSP         .85           .85           .85           .9            .85           .85 
SP-100         .824          .793          .804          .804          .804          .814 
INDMATER       .808          .818          .808          .848          .818          .797 
REIT           .807          .755          .765          .75           .77           .807 
COMODITY       .802          .661          .704          .647          .619          .633 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .8            .8            .8            .8 
FOOD           .8            .733          .8            .4            .6            .6 
INDEXES        .794          .777          .764          .768          .773          .777 
INSURANC       .789          .815          .842          .868          .868          .868 
RUS-1000       .786          .778          .76           .766          .747          .745 
NASD-100       .784          .774          .784          .774          .795          .763 
SP500          .784          .756          .752          .748          .739          .75 
SEMI           .766          .8            .758          .791          .716          .7 
ELECTRON       .752          .778          .731          .747          .701          .69 
ETFS           .75           .794          .735          .72           .602          .558 
SOFTWARE       .734          .734          .718          .75           .671          .64 
OILGAS         .725          .712          .75           .756          .7            .737 
CHEM           .718          .732          .718          .774          .774          .746 
HOSPITAL       .714          .714          .714          .714          .428          .428 
N=32
COMPUTER       .64           .68           .6            .6            .64           .6 
GAMING         .633          .666          .6            .633          .566          .466 
HACKERS        .611          .611          .555          .722          .555          .444 
MILITARY       .6            .755          .666          .688          .688          .666 
GREEN          .548          .58           .516          .548          .548          .516 
BONDFUND       .531          .513          .432          .297          .261          .225 
SOLAR          .526          .526          .421          .526          .368          .315 
BIOTECH        .501          .599          .548          .552          .622          .603 
RETAIL         .444          .425          .425          .407          .5            .425 
CHINA          .4            .353          .261          .307          .292          .184 
COAL           .333          .555          .444          .555          .444          .444 
BEVERAGE       .3            .25           .25           .3            .3            .3 
N=2



==========================================================================================================
                 1-13-2017 
                               
The current Peerless Buy B4 causes us to expect an upside breakout by the DJI
                                                above 20000 soon.   Technology stocks in the QQQ and NASDAQ are already pushing that
                                                ETF into all-time high territory.  This is certainly a bullish sign.  Speculative energies
                                                are on the increase.  True - the DJI''s Accumulation Index is negative.  This mostly shows
                                                the steady selling on rallies to
20000.  But more important, I think, the NYSE A/D Line is now making
                                                new highs ahead of the DJI.  As long as the A/D Line stays in its uptrend, we have no choice
                                                but to remain bullish.  



                                                I would think that a DJI breakout above 20000 to accompany Trump's Inauguration
                                                will be a perfect way to get more investors into the stock market.  This is what
                                                Wall Street wants.  I can't believe all the money fueling the rally has had as its purpose
                                                just bringing the DJI up only to the all-too-obvious resistance at 20000.  The stage,
                                                I still think, has been now set up for much higher prices.






                                                                                The 1928 - Breakout-Take-Off

                                                I have given some examples of narrow trading ranges near the  yearly highs and
                                                have suggested that for the DJI breakout to be valid and likely lead to a big advance,
                                                we need to see a decisive breakout before the present horizontal range lasts more
                                                than 5 or 6 weeks.  This is also what the authors of the "bible" of "Technical Analysis
                                                of Stock Trends" set forth. ( https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trends-Robert-Edwards/dp/0814408648 )
                                               
                                                I have added the argument that we should be watching our TigerSoft IPA Indicator.
                                                This is the cumulative (daily) Tiger Accumulation Index,  If the IPA starts to weaken,
                                                while the DJI is locked in its trading range, there is usually trouble ahead.  The best
                                                examples of this that I showed were early 1962 and early 1966.  On the other hand
                                                if the IPA starts to rise, expect an upside breakout, such as occurred early in 1987.

                                                There is another historical parallel I should mention.  Look back to the DJI's narrow
                                                5-week trading formation in September and October 1928.  See what followed an
                                                an upside breakout back then.  The price patterns then and now seem quite similar.
                                                In mid September, the Dow Jones' Corporation's increased the number of DJI component
                                                stocks from 20 to 30 and included for the first time of the hottest stock of the 1920s,

                                                high-priced RCA. 
                                                ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_components_of_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average )


                                                Even though, the market then was deemed highly speculative and  over-priced AND even
                                                though the FED had raised rates several times in 1928, speculative market forces propelled
                                                the DJI much higher until early September 1929.

                                                I am not suggesting the DJI is near a major top by showing the DJI chart of
                                                1928.  The current NYSE A/D Line is up-trending.  At the top in 1929, it had been
                                                declining for months.  RCA had been booming for years.  Goldman Sachs could
                                                be in the early stages of a bull market.

.
 



                    


                                                QQQ is already running in all-time high territory ahead of DJI.  It rates
                                                buying in here.




                                  

                                      To Tiger/Peerless Charts:
                                                    

       1/13/17:      PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators   DJI-13   Hourly DJIA  
                              
S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ  COMPQX with Closing Power
                              DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 
 
                              Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities   DJI-Transp   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                              Crude Oil   FAS  GLD  IBB  JETS  JNUG NUGT  RSX  SLV  SOXL  TECL   YINN      
                              AAPLAMZNFBGOOG,  GS   MSFT


                             Bullish MAXCP Stocks       Bearish MINCP Stocks.
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              1/13/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          100%          1             1             .909          .818          .909 
JETS           100%          1             1             1             .888          .888 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
HOMEBLDG       .944          .944          .888          .777          .722          .833 
FINANCE        .913          .924          .913          .892          .881          .913 
MORNSTAR       .903          .899          .907          .907          .886          .907 
PIPELINE       .888          .888          1             .777          1             1 
NIFTY          .885          .914          .914          .885          .885          .914 
AUTO           .875          .875          .925          .95           .925          .975 
TRANSP         .85           .85           .9            .85           .85           .9 
UTILITY        .85           .85           .9            .85           .85           .9 
INDMATER       .818          .808          .848          .818          .808          .838 
INSURANC       .815          .842          .868          .868          .868          .894 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .8            .8            .8            .866 
SEMI           .8            .758          .791          .716          .7            .683 
ETFS           .794          .735          .72           .602          .544          .514 
SP-100         .793          .804          .804          .804          .814          .835 
ELECTRON       .778          .731          .747          .701          .69           .67 
RUS-1000       .778          .76           .766          .747          .748          .792 
INDEXES        .777          .764          .768          .773          .773          .773 
NASD-100       .774          .784          .774          .795          .763          .763 
SP500          .756          .752          .748          .739          .752          .797 
MILITARY       .755          .666          .688          .688          .666          .755 
REIT           .755          .765          .75           .77           .802          .906 
SOFTWARE       .734          .718          .75           .671          .625          .687 
FOOD           .733          .8            .4            .6            .6            .6 
CHEM           .732          .718          .774          .774          .746          .788 
HOSPITAL       .714          .714          .714          .428          .428          .428 
OILGAS         .712          .75           .756          .7            .731          .837 
COMPUTER       .68           .6            .6            .64           .6            .6 
GOLD           .679          .603          .603          .622          .603          .528 
N=31
GAMING         .666          .6            .633          .566          .466          .566 
COMODITY       .661          .704          .647          .619          .633          .619 
HACKERS        .611          .555          .722          .555          .444          .5 
BIOTECH        .599          .548          .556          .622          .599          .587 
GREEN          .58           .516          .548          .548          .516          .58 
COAL           .555          .444          .555          .444          .444          .555 
SOLAR          .526          .421          .526          .368          .315          .315 
BONDFUND       .513          .432          .297          .261          .207          .162 
RETAIL         .425          .425          .407          .5            .425          .444 
CHINA          .353          .261          .307          .292          .2            .215 
BEVERAGE       .25           .25           .3            .3            .3            .55 
N=1


=========================================================================================================
                1-12-2017                               High Diving Board Top?
                                                            Or Flat Topped "Box" Pattern Beckoning for A Breakout.


                                               
The current Peerless Buy B4 gives us hope for an upside breakout by the DJI
                                                above 20000.  But what had looked like a flat-topped rectangle formation that
                                                usually brings a steep vertical ascent on a breakout to new highs is starting to
                                                look like a bearish "high diving board".  The longer the DJI remains in a price
                                                formation, the more the market will resemble the DJI's price action before Hitler's
                                                army attacked France in 1940 and JFK attacked US Steel in 1962.
                                                (For details of second case, see http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/7-22-2007/ )

                                                Both of these cases brought steep sell-offs.  Both showed falling IPAs and narrow
                                                and trading ranges that lasted more than 6 months.  Another parallel: Trump is nothing
                                                if he is not bellicose and seems always ready to get into a fight.  So, these two earlier
                                                parallels stand out.

                          

                         

                                                However,
the good news is that the market may decide to ignore Trump's words and
                                                enjoy his actions, which should bring lower taxes, fewer regulations and minimal
                                                numbers of prosecutions  of corporations and Wall Street for fraud, malfeasance
                                                and misrepresentation.  Thus, the DJI turned around from what was almost a 175 point
                                                early decline (presumably to accommodate the many Trump-haters out there) and
                                                fell only modestly. 
This caused our IPA Indicator to turn up and rise above its 21-dma.
                                                The IPA's rise now is particularly important, for it is this indicator more than any
                                                other that showed the market's internal weakness in 1940 and 1961-1962 before
                                                the big sell-offs of those years.

                                                So, maybe, just maybe, Wall Street will soon breakout upwards and start a delayed January
                                                take-off, perhaps like the one in January 1987.  See its chart below.  See how the
                                                IPA Indicator turned up on the breakout.  In our case, we may yet see red Distribution turn
                                                into re-Accumulation along with a DJI take-off to the upside.  Let's give the market more
                                                chance to achieve a price breakout to confound Trump's detractors and bring the masses
                                                back into the market.


                   
                                               

                                                                              Time Is Running Out for A Breakout

                                                I still believe that we can give the DJI  another week to breakout of its narrow and
                                                flat rectangle price pattern.   But "box" patterns are not supposed to last more
                                                than six weeks.  If it takes longer than that, especially with weakening Accumulation
                                                as measured by our cumulative Intra-Day Volume IPA indicator,  then the odds shift
                                                to a decline to the lower band and the support also of the 65-dma.


                               
I cannot help but see parallels between the DJI's chart now with
                                                a high diving board.  A little bounce up for a short-lived breakout would
                                                by this scenario be followed by a steep dive.  Supporting this expected scenario are
                                                the many past DJI cases
shown yesterday here where the DJI went narrowly sidewise
                                                in a bull market with the Tiger IPA Indicator falling and then sold off to the lower
                                                band.  

                                                Another point: the MDY shows a bearish-looking  "Hands above the Head Pattern".
                                                This is not a good omen. These only appear when speculation has become dangerously excessive.


 




                                    
Hedging is recommended while we wait for either breakdowns below
                                                        recent support or an upside DJI breakout confirmed by breadth and
                                                        a rising Closing Powers  for ours key ETFs. 

                                                        When the DJI and the broader market is confined to a trading range, it usually pays
                                                        to buy the most bullish looking  MAXCPs and sell short the weakest MINCPs.  See
                                                        their charts below.  Also consider buying GNCMA (chart shown below).  Long distance
                                                        carriers are  now the best performing Morningside group since the Presidential
                                                        Election.


                                     
                                   
 
                            

                                          To Tiger/Peerless Charts:
                                                    

                           1/12/17:      PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators   DJI-13   Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ  COMPQX with Closing Power
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 
 
                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities   DJI-Transp   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       Crude Oil   FAS  GLD  IBB  JETS  JNUG NUGT  RSX  SLV  SOXL  TECL   YINN      
                                                       AAPLAMZNFBGOOG,  GS   MSFT


                             RANKING OF MORNINGSIDE SECTORS FOR PCT. GAIN
                              SINCE TRUMP WON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

                  
 Strongest performing group was "Long Distance Carriers", up 41%
                    compared with second-best, up 31% - Pacific  NW Regional Banks.

                    The best performing stock in the long distance carriers is an Alaskan Cable company,
                    GNCMA.  In chart below see how its recent Buy B12 and nice pullback support now to support.

 


 

                       1/12/17:      Bullish MAXCP Stocks (shown below)

 

                                  1/12/17:      Bearsh MAXCP Stocks (shown below)




 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMAa

              1/12/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            1             1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          1             1             .909          .818          .909          .909 
JETS           1             1             1             .888          .888          .888 
REGBANKS       1             1             1             1             1             .972 
HOMEBLDG       .944          .888          .777          .722          .833          .833 
FINANCE        .924          .913          .892          .881          .903          .881 
NIFTY          .914          .914          .885          .885          .914          .8 
MORNSTAR       .899          .907          .907          .886          .907          .928 
PIPELINE       .888          1             .777          1             1             1 
AUTO           .875          .925          .95           .925          .975          .95 
TRANSP         .85           .9            .85           .85           .9            .85 
INSURANC       .842          .868          .868          .868          .868          .894 
UTILITY        .822          .8            .666          .711          .777          .777 
INDMATER       .808          .848          .818          .808          .828          .848 
SP-100         .804          .804          .804          .814          .835          .824 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .8            .8            .866          .866 
FOOD           .8            .4            .6            .6            .533          .4 
NASD-100       .784          .774          .795          .763          .763          .763 
REIT           .765          .75           .77           .802          .885          .916 
INDEXES        .764          .768          .773          .773          .773          .794 
RUS-1000       .76           .766          .747          .748          .781          .791 
SEMI           .758          .791          .716          .7            .683          .658 
SP500          .752          .748          .739          .752          .79           .782 
OILGAS         .75           .756          .7            .731          .831          .843 
ETFS           .735          .72           .602          .544          .514          .588 
ELECTRON       .731          .747          .701          .69           .664          .659 
CHEM           .718          .774          .774          .746          .788          .802 
SOFTWARE       .718          .75           .671          .625          .671          .687 
HOSPITAL       .714          .714          .428          .428          .428          .428 
COMODITY       .704          .647          .619          .633          .633          .661 
N=31
MILITARY       .666          .688          .688          .666          .755          .755 
GOLD           .603          .603          .622          .603          .528          .716 
COMPUTER       .6            .6            .64           .6            .6            .64 
GAMING         .6            .633          .566          .466          .566          .6 
HACKERS        .555          .722          .555          .444          .444          .444 
BIOTECH        .549          .556          .627          .603          .572          .556 
GREEN          .516          .548          .548          .516          .58           .612 
COAL           .444          .555          .444          .444          .555          .555 
BONDFUND       .432          .297          .261          .207          .144          .153 
RETAIL         .425          .407          .5            .425          .444          .444 
SOLAR          .421          .526          .368          .315          .315          .315
 
CHINA          .261          .307          .292          .2            .215          .215 
BEVERAGE       .25           .3            .3            .3            .55           .6 
N=2

                     

 

      
                                                                          

=========================================================================================================

                 1-11-2017      Please read about the "high diving board" danger if we do not get a breakout in
                                                in the next week or if the DJI instead breaks down out of its rectangle pattern.


                                                                                                             
High Diving
                                                                                                                 Board?







                                                                              

                                                                                     High Diving Board Top?
                                                            Or Flat Topped "Box" Pattern Beckoning for A Breakout.


                                               
We can give the DJI only as much as 5 weeks to breakout of its narrow and
                                                flat rectangle price pattern. As we've been in the "box" pattern almost a month,
                                                time is running out for a breakout to the upside.

                                                If it takes longer than that, especially with weakening Accumulation as measured
                                                by our cumulative Intra-Day Volume IPA indicator,  then the odds shift to a decline
                                                to the lower band and the support also of the 65-dma.

                                               Flat tops do beckon for a breakout, but at some point there resistance looks too
                                               imposing.  We see how a flat resistance in a narrow trading range loses its bullishness
                                               after 4 or 5 weeks.  In the present case, the DJI hit its peak on December 13th with
                                               a hypothetical high of around 20060 and it hits low in the current pattern the next
                                               day at 19696.24.  Since then, these two levels have confined the DJI.

                                              Consider  the past cases where such flat topped patterns developed over 5 or more
                                              weeks with a falling IPA.  See the below past charts of these longer flat topped DJI
                                              rectangles  in a rising market that are also showing falling daily IPA readings.


                                                          
   Pattern           Breakout/Breakdown Outcome
                                                             -------------------------------------------------------------

                                                            
May 1940      Down sharply
                                                             Jan 1956        Down
                                                             Jan 1962        Down sharply
                                                             June 1963      Down
                                                             Nov  1964      Down
                                                             Feb 1966        Down Sharply
                                                             July 1968       Down

                                                             April 1983      Up
                                                             Jan  1987       Up
                                                            
Oct  2012       Down
                                                             Aug  2013      Down
                                                             July 2015       Down


   

May 1940      Down sharply
Jan 1956        Down
Jan 1962        Down sharply
Feb 1966        Down Sharply

                                              

                                            To Tiger/Peerless Charts:
                                                   
 

                           1/11/17:      PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators   DJI-13   Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ  COMPQX with Closing Power
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM   M

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities   DJI-Transp   A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       GLD  IBB  JETS  JNUG NUGT  SOXL  TECL   FAS   SOXCrude Oil     YINN      
                                                       AAPLAMZN, FB, GOOG, GS    MSFT

                                  1/11/17:      Bullish MAXCP Stocks (shown below)
 


    
                                            Bullish MAXCP Stocks (shown below)

 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              1/11/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%           1             1             1             1             .875 
INFRA          100%          .909          .818          .909          .909          .909 
JETS           100%          1             .888          .888          .888          .888 
PIPELINE       100%          .777          1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             .972          1 
AUTO           .925          .95           .925          .975          .95           .975 
NIFTY          .914          .885          .885          .914          .828          .742 
FINANCE        .913          .892          .881          .903          .881          .903 
MORNSTAR       .907          .907          .886          .907          .928          .911 
TRANSP         .9            .85           .85           .9            .85           .9 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .777          .722          .833          .833          .888 
INSURANC       .868          .868          .868          .868          .894          .894 
INDMATER       .848          .818          .808          .828          .848          .828 
SP-100         .804          .804          .814          .835          .824          .793 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .8            .866          .866          .833 
UTILITY        .8            .666          .711          .777          .777          .711 
SEMI           .791          .716          .7            .683          .658          .658 
CHEM           .774          .774          .746          .788          .802          .816 
NASD-100       .774          .795          .763          .763          .752          .698 
INDEXES        .765          .769          .769          .769          .79           .753 
RUS-1000       .765          .745          .747          .78           .786          .784 
OILGAS         .756          .7            .731          .831          .843          .806 
REIT           .75           .77           .802          .885          .901          .89 
SP500          .748          .739          .752          .79           .778          .775 
ELECTRON       .747          .701          .69           .664          .659          .649 
SOFTWARE       .746          .666          .619          .666          .682          .603 
HACKERS        .722          .555          .444          .444          .444          .277 
ETFS           .72           .602          .544          .514          .573          .455 
HOSPITAL       .714          .428          .428          .428          .428          .428 
MILITARY       .688          .688          .666          .755          .755          .8 
N=31 (rising)
COMODITY       .647          .619          .633          .633          .661          .605 
GAMING         .633          .566          .466          .566          .6            .6 
GOLD           .603          .622          .603          .528          .716          .415 
COMPUTER       .6            .64           .6            .6            .64           .68 
SOLAR          .562          .375          .312          .312          .312          .375 
BIOTECH        .556          .626          .603          .568          .54           .552 
COAL           .555          .444          .444          .555          .555          .555 
GREEN          .548          .548          .516          .58           .612          .645 
RETAIL         .407          .5            .425          .444          .462          .574 
FOOD           .4            .6            .6            .533          .4            .533 
CHINA          .307          .292          .2            .215          .215          .169 
BEVERAGE       .3            .3            .3            .55           .6            .65 
BONDFUND       .297          .261          .207          .144          .144          .108 
N=3


                                                




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  1-10-2017      The Peerless Buy B4 still calls for more new highs and the DJI's flat top at
                                                20000 still looks like it will be broken above.
   But time may be running out if one
                                                follows the time-table in which a top occurs in the days just before Presidential Inauguration.
                                                A lot of Professionals seem to be waiting to see how  Trump handles himself in his first
                                                full-scale news conference since being elected.  Will he fire up the partisans and non-believers
                                                or will he scare investors by being irrational or bellicose?  A lot depends on how the new
                                                President handles himself.

                        

                                                                                      
                                                                              Bullish Pre-Inaugural Bullishness

                                                When we look only at Presidential Election years since 1968 we see a bullish
                                                seasonal period lies ahead for various numbers of trading days following January 10th.
                                                Of course, there are only 12 cases and this is probably too small to rely on.  But it
                                                does suggest we should not yet be sellers..

                                                                              3 days out    5-days out    10-days out     21-days out
                                                                              -----------   -----------     ------------     ------------
                                          Pct of  times up              66.7%           70.8%           66.7%            79.2%
                                          Average DJI Gain          0.8%             +1.0%           +1.0%            +1.9%

                                                20,000 is clearly inviting some steady selling each time it is approached.  This might
                                                be expected from such a round number.  But it seems too obvious a resistance-level
                                                to become a significant top.  As long as the NYSE breadth is good and the DJI does
                                                does not jump too quickly up to the 2% band or higher, Peerless cannot give a Sell.
                                                And as long as the DJI does not breakdown from its "box" pattern and thereby
                                                cause a drop to the next support downward, the 65-day ma, I think we will see
                                                the DJI grab some splashy headlines by closing above 20,000 just as Trump is inaugurated.
                                                Note today that there were 849 more up than down on the NYSE,  The NYSE A/D Line
                                                remains in an uptrend.  Only 19 stocks made new 52-week new lows compared with
                                                95 that made new highs. 27 of our stock groups show more than 2/3 of their component
                                                stocks above the 65-dma.  Only 3 groups show the reverse.

                                                It's true that Professionals are more cautious.  We show 93 MAXCP stocks
                                                (where the Closing Power is making a new 52-week high) and now 41 MINCP stocks
                                                (where the Closing Power is making a new 52-week low).  And it's true that the
                                                Closing Power for DIA is down-trending and below its 21-day.  But that Closing Power
                                                will very likely turn up sharply if the DJI does shoot up past 2000.
                                               
                                                Professional cautiousness is still also very evident in the Closing Powers for SPY.
                                                MDY, IWM and even FAS.  I think that Professionals are wary about how Trump will
                                                handle himself in his first full-scale press conference of the year.  Perhaps, it will fire up the
                                                partisans and cause a life-off.  Or, perhaps Trump will gaffe badly or say something
                                                so bellicose it will cause a war scare.  Watch it.  For now, it's not surprising the market is
                                                on hold in here just below the round number 20,000.

                                                Instead of buying on a Flat-Top Breakout by DIA or on a pullback to its 65-dma,
                                                consider buying some of the stocks just crossing back above their 65-dma that also show
                                                an extremely bullish Closing Power divergence from price (Augmented S7 or CP%-Pr%>.37).
                                                We offer no list of such stocks each night, but they can easily be found by running the Power Ranker
                                                against the NEAR65 group of stocks and then examining the most "bullish" ones (#12) ones
                                                or those with Closing Power new highs (#23).  Click here to see the current list.  I suggest
                                                having the computer show the purple "augmented B7s" by choosing the first item under
                                                Signals(3).  The Buy B7s should only be acted on when prices get above the 65-dma and
                                                the Accum. Index is positive. 
                                                          
                                           Augmented B7s (Very Bullish Closing Power Divergence from Price.)


                                                The opposites, Augmented Sell S7s are a group we provide data for each night.  Here we
                                                would act on these S7s only when the stock falls below the 65-dma with (red) Distribution.
                                                All these will show purple Sell S7s currently.  Use the Power Ranker against them.
                                                Look for additional bearish signs, especially well-tested support about to be broken.

                                                     Augmented Sell S7s (Very Bearish Closing Power Divergence from Price.)
                                              

                                          To Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                           1/10/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                  1/10/17:    Bullish MAXCPs  -    
                                           Bearish MINCPs     - Very few specimens here.  Notice absence of Bonds. 
                                           Augmented Sell S7s (Very Bearish Closing Power Divergence from Price.)
                                           Augmented B7s (Very Bullish Closing Power Divergence from Price.)

  

                                  1/10/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                      Super Stock - 
NVDA (Rebounding up from rising 21-dma...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

                           RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

  
              1/10/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             .875          1 
JETS           100%          .888          .888          .888          .888          .888 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             .972          1             1 
AUTO           .95           .925          .975          .95           .975          .925 
INFRA          .909          .818          .909          .909          .909          .909 
MORNSTAR       .907          .886          .907          .928          .911          .844 
FINANCE        .892          .881          .903          .881          .903          .881 
NIFTY          .885          .885          .914          .828          .771          .685 
INSURANC       .868          .868          .868          .894          .894          .894 
TRANSP         .85           .85           .9            .85           .9            .9 
INDMATER       .818          .808          .828          .848          .828          .747 
SP-100         .804          .814          .835          .824          .793          .773 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .866          .866          .833          .866 
NASD-100       .795          .763          .763          .752          .709          .612 
HOMEBLDG       .777          .722          .833          .833          .888          .833 
PIPELINE       .777          1             1             1             1             .888 
CHEM           .774          .746          .788          .802          .816          .774 
REIT           .77           .802          .885          .901          .88           .765 
INDEXES        .769          .769          .769          .79           .753          .719 
RUS-1000       .745          .747          .78           .786          .781          .717 
SP500          .739          .752          .79           .778          .778          .71 
SEMI           .716          .7            .683          .658          .658          .641 
ELECTRON       .701          .69           .664          .659          .649          .628 
OILGAS         .7            .731          .831          .843          .806          .762 
MILITARY       .688          .666          .755          .755          .8            .777 
SOFTWARE       .671          .625          .671          .687          .609          .5 
N=27, + 1 for day (>.666)
UTILITY        .666          .711          .777          .777          .711          .644 
COMPUTER       .64           .6            .6            .64           .68           .68 
BIOTECH        .626          .603          .571          .54           .54           .431 
GOLD           .622          .603          .528          .716          .396          .339 
COMODITY       .619          .633          .633          .661          .605          .507 
ETFS           .602          .544          .514          .573          .455          .382 
FOOD           .6            .6            .533          .4            .533          .2 
(Quick recovery)
GAMING         .566          .466          .566          .6            .6            .566 
HACKERS        .555          .444          .444          .444          .277          .277 
(Quick recovery)
GREEN          .548          .516          .58           .612          .645          .612 
RETAIL         .5            .425          .444          .462          .574          .555 
COAL           .444          .444          .555          .555          .555          .444 
HOSPITAL       .428          .428          .428          .428          .428          .285 
SOLAR          .368          .315          .315          .315          .368          .315 
BEVERAGE       .3            .3            .55           .6            .65           .5 
CHINA          .292          .2            .215          .215          .169          .153 
BONDFUND       .261          .207          .144          .144          .099          .09 
N=3



                                                
                                                         

                                               

=========================================================================================================
                  1-9-2017        The Peerless Buy B4 still calls for more new highs and the DJI's flat top at
                                                20000 still looks like it will be broken above.
 
                                                    (Hotline had to be abbreviated and emailed out due to server of tigersoft.com
                                                     going down for early AM.  Below is Hotline that was emailed at 4:04 AM PCT).

                                                "Stick with the Buy B4 for all the reasons previously given.
                                                As long as the DJI stays inside its current box, approximately
                                                20000 and 19600, the odds favor an upside breakout.  Nicolas
                                                Darvas, who wrote 2 books about these patterns, said simply
                                                that within the price boxes, there are random movements
                                                that mean very little. 

                                               "However, I would say that a breakdown below the bottom of
                                                these box patterns for any ETFs showing them would call for
                                                a decline to the 65-day ma.

                                               "QQQ may be able to breakout more decisively to boost the market.
                                                But be careful of IWM, MDY, JETS.  A rupture of their recent support
                                                level looks more threatening because their patterns look
                                                less rectangular and more like ordinary top patterns.

                                               "I will complete the regular hotline on the www.tigersoft.com
                                                site later this early morning if I am able and will have to
                                                set up another Hotline page tomorrow night on www.tigersoftware.com
                                                as a contingency against the server problems continuing."

                                                

                                     To Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                           1/9/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                  1/9/17:    Bullish MAXCPs  -    
                                         Bearish MINCPs     - Very few specimens here.  Notice absence of Bonds. 

  

                                  1/9/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                    Super Stock - 
NVDA (still? - Profit taking as new year begins...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

 
                RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               1/9/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100           1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100           1             1             .875          1             1 
PIPELINE       100           1             1             1             .888          .888 
REGBANKS       100           1             .972          1             1             1 
AUTO           .925          .975          .95           .975          .925          .825 
JETS           .888          .888          .888          .888          .888          .777 
MORNSTAR       .886          .907          .928          .911          .84           .777 
NIFTY          .885          .914          .828          .771          .685          .685 
FINANCE        .881          .903          .881          .903          .881          .817 
INSURANC       .868          .868          .894          .894          .894          .921 
TRANSP         .85           .9            .85           .9            .9            .9 
INFRA          .818          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
SP-100         .814          .835          .824          .793          .762          .68 
INDMATER       .808          .828          .848          .828          .747          .666 
REIT           .802          .885          .901          .88           .765          .718 
DOWJONES       .8            .866          .866          .833          .866          .733 
INDEXES        .769          .769          .79           .753          .702          .677 
NASD-100       .765          .765          .755          .712          .606          .553 
SP500          .752          .79           .778          .778          .708          .636 
RUS-1000       .747          .78           .786          .781          .715          .661 
CHEM           .746          .788          .802          .816          .774          .746 
OILGAS         .731          .831          .843          .806          .762          .725 
HOMEBLDG       .722          .833          .833          .888          .833          .833 
UTILITY        .711          .777          .777          .711          .644          .666 
SEMI           .7            .683          .658          .658          .65           .633 
ELECTRON       .69           .664          .659          .649          .628          .639 
N=26
MILITARY       .666          .755          .755          .8            .755          .688 
COMODITY       .633          .633          .661          .605          .507          .492 
SOFTWARE       .625          .671          .687          .609          .5            .437 
BIOTECH        .603          .571          .54           .54           .42           .381
  (rising) 
GOLD           .603          .528          .716          .396          .339          .245 
COMPUTER       .6            .6            .64           .68           .6            .64 
FOOD           .6            .533          .4            .533          .2            .133 
 (rising)
ETFS           .544          .514          .573          .455          .367          .338 
GREEN          .516          .58           .612          .645          .58           .58 
GAMING         .466          .566          .6            .6            .566          .533 
COAL           .444          .555          .555          .555          .444          .333 
HACKERS        .444          .444          .444          .277          .222          .222 
HOSPITAL       .428          .428          .428          .428          .285          .142 
RETAIL         .425          .444          .462          .574          .555          .444 
SOLAR          .315          .315          .315          .368          .315          .263 
BEVERAGE       .3            .55           .6            .65           .45           .35 
BONDFUND       .207          .144          .144          .099          .09           .063 
CHINA          .2            .215          .215          .169          .153          .107 
N=4

  

=========================================================================================================
                  1-6-2017      The Peerless Buy B4 still calls for more new highs and the DJI's flat top at
                                                20000 still looks like it will be broken above.  However, the advance will have to
                                                come from some new Trump stimulus.  It will not come from the Santa Claus
                                                and new year's buying effect.  Those seasonal forces are now used up.  In fact,
                                                seasonality now is slightly bearish.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 42.9%
                                                of the time over the 3 trading days following January 8th.  Over the next 10 days,
                                                it actually averages a slight loss of 0.4%.  A little more backing and filling
                                                would actually be constructive.



                                               At this time, I think we must still consider Financials and Big Banks to still
                                               offer the most trading opportunities.  It is not clear yet that the Biotechs' rebound
                                               is much more than what happens when year-end tax-loss selling comes to an end.                                          


                                                   It will not take much of a rise in the 13 highest priced DJI stocks
                                                   to achieve a flat topped breakout in their Tiger Index.  This would
                                                   very likely bring a DJI advance over 20000.  That would create quite
                                                   a lot of media "buzz" and Trump partisan excitement.

                                              
                                                    

                                                The Jobs' figure of 159,000 net new private jobs for December shows a weakening
                                                but still growing economy.  This is what the weakening Retail stocks have been saying. 
                                                Consumer buying is not strong.   Bulls have a right, I think, to expect that this will
                                                deter the FED from raising rates for a while.  And this will help the beaten down Bonds,
                                                REITS, Golds. 

                                                               GS will only need to rally 2.1 points to score a flat topped breakout.
                                                               As the highest priced DJI-30 stock, this could give that average enough
                                                               boost to surpass the much watched 20,000 round number resistance.
                                                               It should also send the 3x leveraged financials' ETF FAS up as well.

                                          

                                         
                                          


                                                I have looked back to see if one day's negative breadth on a day when the DJI
                                                rallies is bearish.  The answer is only briefly since 2009. So, my conclusion here
                                                is to hold FAS because of its breakout and give the DJI a chance to run up past
                                                20,000 to draw in new buyers.  Let's watch QQQ, too.  It is now bullishly in all-time high
                                                territory.  A breakout by GS ought to send FAS up nicely.  When the market starts
                                                to look a little tired, it is often a good idea for safety's sake to play the very highest
                                                Accumulation stocks (AI/200) of the 6000 that Tiger screens and places in the download file
                                                "ACCUMHOR".  The best of these are shown below.  TOWN is the only one properly
                                                positioned to be purchased, just below its 21-day ma.  XOM, the highest AI/200 stock
                                                in the DJI is similarly positioned but its Closing Power is now falling.
                                              

                                                                            AI/200       LA/MA
                                                          MNR          200            1.04
                                                          TOWN        199              .99  
                                                          OCFC          196          1.04
                                                           


                                                     

                                           Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                           1/6/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 1/6/17:    Bullish MAXCPs  -    
                                         Bearish MINCPs     - Very few specimens here.  Notice absence of Bonds. 

  

                                 1/6/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                    Super Stock - 
NVDA (still? - Profit taking as new year begins...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 


 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               1/6/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             .875          1             1             .875 
PIPELINE       100%          1             1             .888          .777          .777 
REGBANKS       100%          .972          1             1             1             1 
AUTO           .975          .95           .975          .925          .85           .875 
NIFTY          .914          .828          .771          .685          .685          .714 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
MORNSTAR       .907          .928          .911          .84           .773          .785 
FINANCE        .903          .881          .903          .881          .817          .838 
TRANSP         .9            .85           .9            .9            .9            .9 
JETS           .888          .888          .888          .888          .777          .777 
REIT           .885          .901          .88           .765          .718          .656 
INSURANC       .868          .894          .894          .894          .921          .921 
DOWJONES       .866          .866          .833          .866          .733          .733 
SP-100         .835          .824          .793          .762          .69           .742 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .888          .833          .833          .833 
OILGAS         .831          .843          .806          .762          .718          .725 
INDMATER       .828          .848          .828          .747          .686          .717 
SP500          .79           .778          .778          .708          .642          .668 
CHEM           .788          .802          .816          .774          .746          .76 
RUS-1000       .78           .786          .781          .715          .664          .67 
UTILITY        .777          .777          .711          .644          .644          .711 
INDEXES        .774          .79           .753          .702          .677          .661 
NASD-100       .763          .752          .709          .602          .559          .58 
MILITARY       .755          .755          .8            .755          .711          .755 
SEMI           .683          .658          .658          .65           .633          .633 
SOFTWARE       .671          .687          .609          .5            .437          .5 
N=27 still expanding!

ELECTRON       .664          .659          .649          .628          .644          .639 
COMODITY       .633          .661          .605          .507          .492          .492 
COMPUTER       .6            .64           .68           .6            .64           .68 
GREEN          .58           .612          .645          .58           .58           .612 
BIOTECH        .571          .54           .54           .42           .381          .389 
GAMING         .566          .6            .6            .566          .533          .566 
COAL           .555          .555          .555          .444          .444          .555 
BEVERAGE       .55           .6            .65           .45           .35           .45 
FOOD           .533          .4            .533          .2            .133          .133 
GOLD           .528          .716          .396          .339          .245          .283 
ETFS           .514          .573          .455          .367          .338          .338 
HACKERS        .444          .444          .277          .222          .222          .277 
RETAIL         .444          .462          .574          .555          .462          .537 
HOSPITAL       .428          .428          .428          .285          .142          .142 


SOLAR          .315          .315          .368          .315          .263          .263 
CHINA          .215          .215          .169          .153          .107          .107 
BONDFUND       .144          .144          .099          .09           .054          .054 



===========================================================================================================


                 1-5-2017     The Peerless Buy B4 calls for more new highs.   The many index and ETF
                                               flat tops beckon for breakouts.  The A/D Lines are bullish for all the important
                                               general market indexes.  While Professionals seem unwilling to induce price
                                               breakouts, they may just be waiting to see what tomorrow's Job numbers are.
                                               We have to be impressed that the DJI has not been below the 21-day ma since
                                               November 4th.

                                               Bulls need now to see, I think,  a December Jobs Report between 150,000 and 210,000. 
                                               This would be growth sufficient to cover the increase in population, but would
                                               not itself be inflationary.  On the other hand, Jobs' numbers higher than 210,000
                                               along with the higher oil prices and local minimum wage increases would give the
                                               Hawks plenty of ammunition to use to get another rate hike soon.  There is
                                               another possibility, which seems unlikely; namely, that a Jobs' number will
                                               come in much below 150,000.  That would suggest a weakening economy.  It
                                               would reinforce the sense that Main Street and Wall Street are living in two
                                               different realms.  This would further rattle Retail stocks.  With the market
                                               having now risen nearly 8 years without more than a 17% correction, such low
                                               numbers could cause another January decline, though not so deep as in 2009,
                                               2014, 2015 and 2016.

 

Private New Jobs
 in 1000s in US.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 186 144 24 271 252 176 208 142(P) 178(P)  
P : preliminary

 

 


                                    http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

                                


                                                  
The DJIA-30 Looks Over-Extended Compared to the Other Indexes.

                                               Don't be alarmed. This is normal now, given how the DJI is weighted and
                                               how the Leveraged ETFs' tails can wildly wag the Index dogs.

 


                                               The 13 highest priced DJI stocks have produced 1479 of its splashy 2000 point gain
                                               since November 3rd, the day before the Election.  This is caused by the fact that
                                               the DJIA is weighted solely by price.  Even more distorted, just one of its 30
                                               components, GS, accounts for  455 of the DJIA's Trump Rally's 2000 points.  That's
                                               nearly 20%. 

                                               Of course, the way the DJI weights its winners most heavily in its computation
                                               is not accidental.  The DJIA-30 is a very important advertisement for Wall Street.
                                               It also gives traders who know this a big advantage.  Some of them will seek to buy into these
                                               highest priced DJI stocks to rig a run-up so that they can sell all their stocks to the
                                               unsuspecting public.  And as long as the high priced DJI stocks keep rising, all is
                                               well, the bull  market looks solid and prices elsewhere rise, too.
 My guess is that
                                               renewed buying in the DJI-13 in a week or two will cause the DJI to briskly get
                                               up above 20000 just before the Trump Inauguration.  That will give traders a 
                                               higher level where they can take some very nice profits selling to Republican
                                               partisans. 


                                               But at some point, the traders will surely stop buying the DJI's "nifty" stocks.  If the
                                               other indexes (which are volume and capitalization weighted) and their A/D Lines then
                                               start to sell-off,  we may then be seeing a sign that that the "jig is up". 
Fortunately, the A/D Lines
                                               for the SP-500, NASDAQ-100 and Russell-1000 are in strong uptrends.
So the market
                                               looks relatively safe.

                                               But there is still short-term risk.  If the traders who bought heavily into the DJI's
                                               high priced stocks, decide to dump them for some reason, such as a very weak Jobs
                                               number or a very high Jobs Number, then the DJI-30 could make a quick
                                               decline back towards its 3.5% lower band.  That would cause a shake-out elsewhere.
                                               So let's watch our DJI-13 in here to see if its recent support level holds. I will post it
                                               in the charts that are linked to just below.

 

                                                                                      
TIGER INDEXES:
                                                         SP-500, QQQ, RUSS-1000, DIA

                                                                 (Weighted by avg price x avg trading volume)

                                                Note that prices and their A/D Lines are all in bullish uptrends.
                                                Their flat tops are bullish, too.

 

                                             

                                         Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                           1/5/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 1/5/17:    Bullish MAXCPs  -    
                                         Bearish MINCPs     - Very few specimens here.  Notice absence of Bonds. 

  

                                 1/5/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                    Super Stock - 
NVDA (still? - Profit taking as new year begins...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

 

 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/5/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
PIPELINE       100%          1             .9            .8            .7            .8 
MORNSTAR       .928          .911          .84           .773          .785          .777 
AUTO           .926          .951          .902          .829          .853          .878 
REGBANKS       .923          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
JETS           .909          .909          .909          .818          .818          .818 
INSURANC       .894          .894          .894          .921          .921          .921 
EDU            .888          .777          .888          .888          .777          .777 
FINANCE        .881          .903          .881          .817          .838          .827 
REIT           .875          .855          .746          .701          .641          .601 
TRANSP         .85           .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
OILGAS         .843          .806          .762          .718          .718          .725 
INDMATER       .836          .817          .74           .682          .711          .692 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .888          .833          .833          .833          .833 
NIFTY          .828          .771          .685          .685          .714          .714 
SP-100         .826          .795          .765          .693          .744          .714 
CHEM           .808          .821          .78           .753          .767          .753 
INDEXES        .79           .753          .702          .677          .661          .652 
RUS-1000       .783          .779          .715          .667          .674          .66 
SP500          .778          .778          .708          .642          .668          .653 
MILITARY       .755          .8            .755          .711          .755          .733 
NASD-100       .75           .708          .604          .562          .593          .562 
UTILITY        .73           .692          .634          .615          .692          .615 
GOLD           .722          .407          .351          .259          .296          .222 
SOFTWARE       .691          .617          .514          .455          .529          .411 
COMODITY       .671          .614          .514          .5            .5            .485 
N=27
ELECTRON       .659          .649          .628          .644          .639          .659 
SEMI           .658          .658          .65           .633          .633          .658 
COMPUTER       .633          .666          .6            .633          .666          .6 
DOWJONES       .633          .666          .6            .633          .666          .6 
BEVERAGE       .6            .65           .45           .35           .45           .35 
GAMING         .6            .6            .566          .533          .566          .533 
ETFS           .573          .455          .367          .338          .323          .22 
GREEN          .558          .588          .529          .529          .558          .588 
BIOTECH        .549          .549          .431          .393          .397          .397 
COAL           .5            .5            .4            .4            .5            .6 
RETAIL         .446          .553          .535          .446          .517          .517 
HOSPITAL       .428          .428          .285          .142          .142          .142 
HACKERS        .421          .263          .21           .21           .263          .263 
FOOD           .4            .533          .2            .133          .133          .2 
SOLAR          .315          .368          .315          .263          .263          .315 
CHINA          .215          .169          .153          .107          .107          .107 
BONDFUND       .144          .099          .09           .054          .054          .027 
N=3


                                                                 
=========================================================================================                                              

                 1-4-2017     The Peerless Buy B4 calls for more new highs.  Bank and finance stocks
                                               are leading the way higher.  In its own way this is quite healthy.  Big banks
                                               control the destinies of so much in national politics and economics as well as finance,
                                               it is a bullish sign that the troubles of 2007-2009 are very distant.  
                                              
                                               Technically, we easily spot the Banks' strength using TigerSoft and Peerless.
                                               Regional banks again dominate the Bullish MAXCPs and their leveraged ETF,
                                               FAS, made today a fine, bullish looking flat-topped breakouts.  True, GS and JPM did
                                               not participate.  So, this may hold FAS back a little. 

                                               A bigger worry would be if bank stocks rose in isolation and got too far ahead
                                               of the overall market.   Watching the steady advance of the Russell-2000 today
                                               and the 5%+ rise in its leveraged ETF, TNA, I would think we have to bullish. 
                                               In fact, there is a good chance that we are seeing a January take-off.  That notion is
                                               supported by the fact that the DJI has now gone more than two months without falling
                                               below its 21-dma.  In the 2006 version of Peerless, this was enough for a Buy B15 signal. 
                                               Since then,  the Buy B15 has become more conditional.  But the purpose of the Buy B15
                                               is the same;  it tells us that the market is becoming exceptionally strong and we should
                                               give it plenty of chance to run.
                                               





                                  


                                               In that vein, notice how the NYSE A/D Line bullishly made a new high ahead of
                                               the DJIA.  Breadth was superb today.  On the NYSE, there were 2606 advancers
                                               and only 466 decliners today.  The number of new lows on the NASDAQ and NYSE
                                               have shrunk to just 11 and 5, respectively.   With year-end tax-loss selling over,
                                               shorts are busy covering beaten-down stocks, especially Golds, Bonds and foreign
                                               ETFs, too, as rising Oil prices means more inflation which may check the Dollar's rise.

                                               In addition, the number of groups with more than 66.7% of their stocks above their
                                               65-dma has risen again.  Their number rose from 23 to 25 today.  Last year,
                                               we saw that number steadily rise after Trump's victory.  The promise of lower
                                               taxes on corporations and on wealthy individuals along with fewer regulations,
                                               is exactly what Wall Street wanted.  Resist the urge to sell too much by looking again
                                               at the 1925 chart of the DJI chart and remember how Coolidge also campaigned
                                               on a platform of markedly lower taxes, fewer regulations and higher tariffs
                                               to protect American industry.

                                                                         
  1925 Was A Very Bullish Year                                             
                           

                                           Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          1/4/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 1/4/17:    Bullish MAXCPs  -    Again lots of banks.
                                         Bearish MINCPs     - Very few specimens here.  Notice absence of Bonds. 

  

                                 1/4/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                    Super Stock - 
NVDA (still? - Profit taking as new year begins...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 


 

   RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               1/4/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
PIPELINE       100%          .9            .8            .7            .8            1 
AUTO           .951          .902          .829          .853          .878          .902 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
MORNSTAR       .911          .84           .773          .785          .773          .827 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
JETS           .909          .909          .818          .818          .818          .818 
FINANCE        .903          .881          .817          .838          .827          .86 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
INSURANC       .894          .894          .921          .921          .921          .921 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
REIT           .855          .746          .701          .636          .577          .656 
DOWJONES       .833          .866          .733          .733          .733          .8 
CHEM           .821          .78           .753          .767          .753          .794 
INDMATER       .817          .74           .682          .711          .692          .721 
OILGAS         .806          .762          .718          .718          .725          .762 
MILITARY       .8            .755          .711          .755          .733          .755 
SP-100         .795          .765          .693          .744          .714          .775 
RUS-1000       .778          .715          .666          .674          .655          .715 
SP500          .778          .708          .642          .668          .646          .71 
EDU            .777          .888          .888          .777          .777          .888 
NIFTY          .771          .685          .685          .714          .714          .771 
INDEXES        .756          .705          .68           .663          .655          .672 
NASD-100       .708          .604          .562          .593          .562          .645 
UTILITY        .673          .634          .634          .673          .596          .673 
N=25
COMPUTER       .666          .6            .633          .666          .6            .733 
SEMI           .658          .65           .633          .633          .658          .708 
BEVERAGE       .65           .45           .35           .45           .35           .35 
ELECTRON       .649          .628          .644          .639          .659          .701 
SOFTWARE       .617          .514          .455          .529          .411          .544 
COMODITY       .605          .507          .492          .492          .478          .478 
GAMING         .6            .566          .533          .566          .533          .566 
GREEN          .588          .529          .529          .558          .588          .588 
RETAIL         .553          .535          .446          .517          .5            .535 
BIOTECH        .549          .431          .393          .397          .393          .446 
FOOD           .533          .2            .133          .133          .2            .2 
COAL           .5            .4            .4            .5            .6            .7 
ETFS           .455          .367          .338          .323          .22           .25 
HOSPITAL       .428          .285          .142          .142          .142          .285 
GOLD           .407          .351          .259          .296          .222          .185 
SOLAR          .368          .315          .263          .263          .315          .315 
HACKERS        .263          .21           .21           .263          .263          .263 
CHINA          .169          .153          .107          .107          .107          .138 
BONDFUND       .099          .09           .054          .054          .027          .018 
N=3


========================================================================================================

                    1-3-2017     The Peerless Buy B4 calls for more new highs.



                                I believe that the Finance stocks are the most likely to lead another market advance.
                                Tops are seldom made from flat tops like the DJI and FAS now show.  Usually in such cases,
                                first there is a breakout to run in the shorts, at the very least.  The Closing Powers can lag
                                in these cases.  The Closing Powers play catch up because Professionals are too smart to be
                                stubbornly bearish.  (Read about 
Darvas Box  patterns.  They have quite a history.  And they
                                show a superb way to make money in a super bull market.) 
 At the bottom of this Hotline,
                                see some SPY examples  of valid flat-topped price breakouts even when the Closing Power
                                was lagging.


                                The Professional Day Traders who sold on early strength today may be losing control of the market.
                                Other Professionals drove the DJI up 95 points in the last two hours.  It sure looks like
                                20000 will again be tested.



                                Today looked pretty bullish.  The DJI jumped up from its still fast-rising 21-day ma.  On the NYSE,
                                advancers outpaced decliners by 3:1.  And volume rose by a third.  Lagging volume has been
                                a concern.  

 

                                                       
                                      

                                         Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          1/3/17:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 1/3/17:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                         Bearish MINCPs  - Notice absence of Bonds. 

  

                                 1/3/17:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                    Super Stock - 
NVDA (still? - Profit taking as new year begins...)
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

 


                                                     
Flat Tops "Trump" falling Closing Powers.
                                 
 

                                Below are some SPY examples from the great bull market, 1995-2000.  See how the flat
                                top breakouts occurred over and over even though Closing Power was lagging for a while.
                                Usually the price breakout caused the Closing Power downtrendline to be broken.  Professionals
                                know the bullishness of flat topped breakouts.



  

 


RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               1/3/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
JETS           .909          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
AUTO           .902          .829          .853          .878          .902          .902 
PIPELINE       .9            .8            .7            .8            1             1 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
INSURANC       .894          .921          .921          .921          .921          .894 
EDU            .888          .888          .777          .777          .777          .888 
FINANCE        .881          .817          .838          .827          .86           .849 
DOWJONES       .866          .733          .733          .733          .8            .8 
MORNSTAR       .84           .773          .785          .773          .823          .815 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
CHEM           .78           .753          .767          .753          .794          .821 
SP-100         .765          .693          .744          .714          .775          .755 
OILGAS         .762          .718          .718          .725          .762          .756 
MILITARY       .755          .711          .755          .733          .755          .755 
REIT           .746          .701          .636          .572          .631          .641 
INDMATER       .74           .682          .711          .692          .721          .711 
RUS-1000       .714          .664          .671          .651          .708          .697 
SP500          .708          .642          .668          .646          .71           .695 
INDEXES        .702          .677          .661          .652          .669          .669 
NIFTY-35       .685          .685          .714          .714          .771          .742 
N=23
SEMI           .65           .633          .633          .658          .708          .7 
ELECTRON       .628          .644          .639          .659          .701          .701 
UTILITY        .615          .634          .692          .576          .673          .653 
NASD-100       .604          .562          .593          .562          .645          .625 
COMPUTER       .6            .633          .666          .6            .733          .666 
GAMING         .566          .533          .566          .533          .566          .533 
RETAIL         .535          .446          .517          .5            .535          .553 
GREEN          .529          .529          .558          .588          .588          .588 
SOFTWARE       .514          .455          .529          .411          .544          .5 
COMODITY       .507          .492          .492          .478          .478          .478 
BEVERAGE       .45           .35           .45           .35           .35           .35 
BIOTECH        .431          .393          .397          .393          .439          .454 
COAL           .4            .4            .5            .6            .7            .7 
ETFS           .367          .338          .323          .22           .25           .264 
GOLD           .351          .259          .296          .222          .185          .166 
SOLAR          .315          .263          .263          .315          .315          .315 
HOSPITAL       .285          .142          .142          .142          .285          .285 
HACKERS        .21           .21           .263          .263          .263          .21 
FOOD           .2            .133          .133          .2            .2            .2 
CHINA          .153          .107          .107          .107          .138          .107 
BONDFUND       .09           .054          .054          .027          .018          .036
N=6 


===========================================================================================
                                                          

              12-30-2016     The Peerless Buy B4 calls for more new highs.  But it remains to be seen,
                                                 however, if Professionals are ready to turn bullish. 

                                                 Short term traders will want to see SPY's 5-day ma turn up and its Closing
                                                 Power break its down-trend to be buyers.  See below how Professionals
                                                 have been
net sellers recently while the Public and foreigners have been
                                                
net buyers.  Usually, the Professionals turn out to be right. 




                                                                                   Who Is More Partisan?

                                                 The Trump buyers now?  Or the Democrats who deny Trump all legitimacy?
                                                 For us, trusting our Indicators will probably work out best.  The DJI has
                                                 fallen back to its falling 21-day ma and appears to be staging a good bounce
                                                 as the New Year starts.  But Professionals have been recent sellers; so we must watch
                                                 to see if they bullishly join the bulls tomorrow and the market closes up higher than its
                                                 opening tomorrow.  That action should be bullish enough to take the DJI up to its 20300 and
                                                 the rising red parallel-line resistance shown further below tomorrow.

                                                                        Will Feds Dare To Raise Rates All Alone? 

                                                 Not talked much about is the effect we will see here because the Bank of
                                                 England chose not to follow the Fed and raise interest rates. They decided
                                                 on
December 15th to hold their rates unchanged even though the US Fed
                                                 raised their short-term rates.  The British decision set off a spirited, if brief,
                                                 rally in leveraged Gold Mining shares and also in Bonds.  NUGT rose 50%
                                                 in just a week.




                                                 One would think that the British decision will work against the Fed raising rates soon
                                                 unless they want to risk creating a much stronger Dollar with its negative consequences
                                                 for US manufacturing exports, which Trump professes to want to promote.

                                                                 Bullish Seasonalities May Last Another Week or Two.
                                                               Perhaps, the DJI will peak just as Trump Is Inaugurated...

                                                 Let's also take in account the seasonality of January and how the
                                                 market has welcomed Republican Presidents as they start a new term
                                                 in office. 

                                                 After January 2nd, since 1965 the DJI usually rises for 3 more trading days.
                                                 It then pauses and makes little progress for the next two weeks.

                                                   3 trading days out from Jan 2 - DJI typically rises 65.3% of time and gains 0.6%
                                                   5 trading days out from Jan 2 - DJI typically rises 59.2% of time and gains 0.3%
                                                  10 trading days out from Jan 2 - DJI typically rises 63.3% of time and gains 0.6%
                                                  21 trading days out from Jan 2 - DJI typically rises 63..3% of time and gains 1%

                                                
                                                 Based on Trump being a Republican, if history repeats what happened in
                                                 7 of 8 cases, the DJI will not peak until somewhere between Jan. 5 and
                                                 Feb. 5.

                                                                                 first peak
                                                         Republican     before decline
                                                         Presidents      to lower band.
                                                         -------------------------------------
                                                         Coolidge          1/13/1925
                                                         Hoover            2/5/1929
                                                         Eisenhower     1/5/1953
                                                         Nixon              12/5/1969
                                                         Nixon              1/11/1973
                                                         Reagan           1/6/1981
                                                         Bush-Sr           2/1/1989
                                                         Bush-Jr           2/1/2001
 
 
                      
 The DJI is testing the support of its rising 21-day ma.  That moving average is rising at an
                                    annualized rate of 42.3%.  This usually is enough to cause a reversal back upwards.

                                
                         --------- -----------                           

 Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/30/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/30/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs  - Notice absence of Bonds.  This due to British failure to raise rates.

  

                                 12/30/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                        Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

    

RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
         
                     

   
              12/30/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%             1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INSURANC       .921          .921          .921          .921          .894          .894 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
EDU            .888          .777          .777          .777          .888          .888 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
FINANCE        .817          .838          .827          .86           .849          .849 
AUTO           .813          .837          .86           .883          .883          .883 
PIPELINE       .8            .7            .8            1             1             .9 
MORNSTAR       .773          .785          .773          .823          .81           .794 
CHEM           .753          .767          .753          .794          .821          .794 
DOWJONES       .733          .733          .733          .8            .8            .766 
OILGAS         .718          .718          .725          .762          .756          .781 
MILITARY       .711          .755          .733          .755          .755          .755 
REIT           .701          .636          .572          .626          .621          .626 
SP-100         .693          .744          .714          .775          .755          .734 
NIFTY          .685          .714          .714          .771          .742          .742 
INDMATER       .682          .711          .692          .721          .711          .701 
INDEXES        .677          .661          .652          .669          .669          .656 
N= 21
RUS-1000       .665          .672          .654          .71           .699          .686 
ELECTRON       .644          .639          .659          .701          .701          .675 
SP500          .642          .668          .646          .71           .695          .678 
COMPUTER       .633          .666          .6            .733          .666          .666 
SEMI           .633          .633          .658          .708          .7            .675 
UTILITY        .615          .692          .596          .653          .653          .634 
NASD-100       .562          .593          .562          .645          .625          .593 
GAMING         .533          .566          .533          .566          .533          .533 
GREEN          .514          .542          .571          .571          .571          .542 
HACKERS        .514          .542          .571          .571          .571          .542 
COMODITY       .492          .492          .478          .478          .478          .464 
SOFTWARE       .455          .529          .411          .544          .485          .411 
RETAIL         .446          .517          .5            .535          .553          .535 
COAL           .4            .5            .6            .7            .7            .6 
BIOTECH        .393          .397          .393          .439          .454          .386 
BEVERAGE       .35           .45           .35           .35           .35           .3 
ETFS           .338          .323          .22           .25           .235          .235 
SOLAR          .263          .263          .315          .315          .315          .368 
GOLD           .259          .296          .222          .185          .166          .166 
HOSPITAL       .142          .142          .142          .285          .285          .285 
FOOD           .133          .133          .2            .2            .2            .133 
CHINA          .107          .107          .107          .138          .107          .123 
BONDFUND       .054          .054          .027          .018          .036          .027
N=6 

   


==================================================================================================

             12-29-2016       Since 1965, the DJI has rallied 70.4% of the time over
                                                   the next five trading days and averaged a gain of 0.8%.
                                                  
This helps us believe that the DJI will not slip back much here and
                                                   make a successful attempt at getting past the 20000 resistance before Trump's
                                                   Inauguration.   But, first, because nearly all the key ETFs are showing falling
                                                   Closing Powers (net Professional selling) and falling 5-day mvg. averages,
                                                   I have to think that more profit-taking probably lies ahead and short-term traders
                                                   should just wait to buy. 

                                                                      

                                                   The operative Peerless signal is a Buy B4.  But a series of low volume
                                                   rally-days with weak breadth which close near their days' lows could bring
                                                   a Sell S12 about 350-400-points higher than today's close.  So stay tuned.
                                                   A quick spike above
20000 to celebrate the New Year might prove to be
                                                   a trap for unwary Trump partisans deploying new funds in January.


                                     
                                                   The data below show that the DJI failed recently to reach the 1.7% upper band with the
                                                   IP21 and VI negative.  In addition, the P-Indicator stands comfortably above zero.
                                                   That explains why we have not seen a Peerless Sell signal (an S9, S12 or S16 recently.
                                                   It's true that there are almost 3x more stocks stocks traded on the NYSE now than back in
                                                   1966, but even multiplying the PI value below for 1/6/1966, we see that the P-I now is still
                                                   higher than in any cases below where the DJI declined from a late December or early January top.

                                                   Thus, all this new data, in Table I,  reinforces the research shown earlier about the bullishness of a
                                                   December 17th-2-th close 2% over the 21-day ma, as happened this year.  So, most likely
                                                   we have not seen the DJI high yet on this advance.

                                                   But right now, we should, I think, wait for the key ETFs to stop showing falling
                                                   Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages.  See Table II below in today's Hotline.

                  
Table I         Late December and Early January
                                    Peaks and Pivots-Down in Rising Markets

                              
Date            Peerless Signal   LA/MA    PI       IP21    VI                                     Outcome
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               1/6/1966      Sell S12               1.025    +34
       -.042    +6           Bear Market started.
                                                                                                            1180 up and down.
                                               1/8/1968      Sell S12               1.02      +68
       -.019    +6           DJI fell below lower band.
                                               1/11/1973    Sell S12, S9        1.024    
-96        +.002     -2          Bear Market started.
                                               1/8/1981      Sell S16/S12       1.029     
-29        -.049      -5          DJI declined to lower band.
                                               1/6/1983      Sell S12               1.036     +36
      -.092      0           DJI declined to lower band.
                                              
                                               1/5/1984      Sell S12               1.019     +5
         -.024      0           DJI fell below the lower band.
                                               1/8/1997      no  Sell signal      1.014    +143
     -.001    -12          Bull market continues
                                               1/12/2000    Sell S12, S15       1.019    
-20       -.062   -64           Bear Market started
                                               12/30/2013  Sell S12               1.027     +79
       -.027     -2          Decline to lower band.
                                               12/29/2014  No signal             1.017     +39
      -.012      -62        Quick temporary drop to 3% lower band.

                                               12/29/2015  Sell S16               1.019     
-67        -.10       -147      DJI fell below lower band.

                                                                     Most recently...
                                               12/27/2016  no Sell signal       1.017    +166      +.030 
  -12        ?
                                               12/28/2016  no Sell signal       1.009    +146      +.008 
  -14         ?
                                                                        
3015 up and down   
                               
12/29/2016  no Sell signal       1.007    +177      -.004      -4         ?  

                  
Table 2      Key ETF's Short-Term Indicators

                  
 ClPower            ETF        Price      Pivot-Point            Difference         ITRS            IP21 (Change        5-day ma
                                                                       12/29     12/30 for 5-dma      (A)-(B)                                    from day before)  trend ann roc%
                                                                       (A)         (B)   
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             
 CP trendbreak      DIA      197.99 -.09   198.97                (-.98)                                      +.023 (0)               Down  -.294
                              
Falling               SPY      224.35 -.05   225.38               (-1.03)              -.042               -.053  (-.008)        Down  -.315
                              
Falling               QQQ    119.71 -.17  120.12                 (-.41)                -.076              -.055 (-.005)         Down  -.315
                              
Falling               MDY    302.91 +.89  303.24                (-.33)               -.001              -.039 (0)                Down  -.354
                              
Falling               IWM    135.37 +.12  135.32                (+.05)             +.027              -.066 (-.024)          Down  -.621
                                                  
                             
CP trendbreak     FAS      40.55 -.40     41.63                  (-1.08)              +.313              +.084 (-.006)        Down  -1.739
                              Falling         
    TECL    51.26 -.05    51.87                  (-.61)                -.019              +.016 (+.003)        Down  -.942  

                              Falling            
 SOXL   59.92  -.01    60.49                  (-.57)               +.256              +.111 (+.051)           Up +   .32
                        

 

                                                 Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/29/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/29/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs  - Notice absence of Bonds.  This due to British failure to raise rates.

  

                                 12/29/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                        Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

    

        
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
 

   
              12/29/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INSURANC       .921          .921          .921          .894          .894          .894 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
FINANCE        .838          .827          .86           .849          .849          .849 
AUTO           .837          .86           .883          .883          .883          .883 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .888 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
EDU            .777          .777          .777          .888          .888          .888 
CHEM           .767          .753          .794          .821          .794          .794 
MILITARY       .755          .733          .755          .755          .755          .755 
SP-100         .744          .714          .775          .755          .734          .744 
DOWJONES       .733          .733          .8            .8            .766          .8 
OILGAS         .718          .725          .762          .756          .775          .775 
NIFTY          .714          .714          .771          .742          .742          .742 
INDMATER       .711          .692          .721          .711          .701          .74 
PIPELINE       .7            .8            1             1             .9            .8 
UTILITY        .673          .596          .673          .634          .634          .653
(N=19) 
COMPUTER       .666          .6            .733          .666          .666          .633 
SP500          .665          .647          .707          .693          .675          .695 
RUS-1000       .664          .647          .706          .693          .676          .702 
INDEXES        .661          .652          .669          .669          .648          .652 
ELECTRON       .639          .659          .701          .701          .675          .685 
REIT           .636          .572          .626          .616          .611          .626 
SEMI           .633          .658          .708          .7            .675          .7 
NASD-100       .593          .562          .645          .625          .593          .635 
GAMING         .545          .515          .545          .515          .545          .575 
GREEN          .542          .571          .571          .571          .542          .6 
SOFTWARE       .529          .411          .544          .485          .411          .5 
RETAIL         .517          .5            .535          .553          .535          .642 
COAL           .5            .6            .7            .7            .6            .5 
COMODITY       .492          .478          .478          .478          .464          .464 
BEVERAGE       .45           .35           .35           .35           .3            .25 
BIOTECH        .397          .393          .439          .454          .386          .401 
ETFS           .323          .22           .25           .235          .235          .25 
GOLD           .296          .222          .185          .166          .166          .203 
HACKERS        .263          .263          .263          .21           .263          .263 
SOLAR          .263          .315          .315          .315          .368          .368 
HOSPITAL       .142          .142          .285          .285          .285          .285 
FOOD           .133          .2            .2            .2            .133          .2 
CHINA          .107          .107          .138          .107          .123          .153 
BONDFUND       .054          .027          .018          .036          .027          .036 



==============================================================================================
 
         12-28-2016    Despite the operative Peerless Buy B4, I suggested that traders get out
                                               of ETFs if they closed below the pivot point of their 5-day moving avg. thus
                                               causing their 5-day moving averages to turn down. 
This happened today for
                                               DIA, SPY, FAS, TECL SOXL and QQQIWM's 5-day ma was already falling.
                                               The Closing Powers for each of these is now below its 21-say ma.
                                               The overhead resistance was too just too much for the low volume trading.

                                               I doubt if there will be big decline.  But just as Trump's supporters are loud and boisterous,
                                               so too are his detractors.  Now we get to see how numerous are the bears.
                                               A little weakness now would get rid of some the inevitable profit-takers and
                                               give others a chance to buy on weakness. When the internals begin trending
                                               up, traders should be able to go long again. 
 

                                              
See how this is the first time DIA's 5-day ma has turned down visibly
                                               since Trump was elected.  Profit-taking is probably simply long over-due here.
                                               But, making things look somewhat more bearish,
DIA's Closing Power uptrend-line has been
                                               clearly violated and volume picked up considerably on today's decline.


                                             
 And most important, we have to be cautious now because there have been so many cases
                                               of the DJI pivoting down in January when the Accumulation Index and V-Indicator
                                               were negative despite the normally bullish Santa Claus effect.  Compare the
                                               the Peerless key values yesterday and today with what has brought a reversing
                                               Sell signal in the past.  The Accum. Index (IP21) is only barely positive and the V-I
                                               is quite negative.

                                               The saving grace now is that usually in the past before the DJI peaked, the DJI
                                               first closed  at least 1.7% over the 21-day ma with both the current AI (IP21)
                                               and the V-Indicator negative.  Because of the sturdy resistance at 20,000 and the low
                                               trading volume, we have not recently seen the DJI or DIA close 2% above the 21-day.
                                               This may help the bulls here.  There may still have to be another rally to take the DJI
                                               closer to the 2% upper band. But we have to be concerned that the current Accum. Index
                                               (IP21) keeps falling closer and closer to (red) minus territory.

                                               Moreover, as you can see just below, recently at the December 2014 and 2015 tops,
                                               the DJI did not to reach the 2% upper band, yet still topped out and turn down.  No doubt,
                                               the computerized traders, and there are lots more of them now, are selling somewhat
                                               earlier than they used to.   That is why we have not seen the DJI reach the full 3.5%
                                               as much in recent years.

                                               Below see the pivots-down at the end of the year and also the cases where the
                                               DJI kept rising despite a weak IP21 and V-I at the end of the year. 


                                    Late December and Early January
                                    Peaks and Pivots-Down in Rising Markets

                              
Date            Peerless Signal   LA/MA    IP21    VI           Outcome
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               1/6/1966      Sell S12               1.025       
-.042    +6          Bear Market started.
                                               1/8/1968      Sell S12               1.02        
 -.019    +6          DJI fell below lower band.
                                               1/11/1973    Sell S12, S9        1.024        +.002   
 -2          Bear Market started.
                                               1/8/1981      Sell S16/S12       1.029      
 -.049      -5          DJI declined to lower band.
                                               1/6/1983      Sell S12               1.036     
 -.092      0           DJI declined to lower band.
                                              
                                               1/5/1984      Sell S12               1.019     
 -.024      0           DJI fell below the lower band.
                                               1/8/1997      no  Sell signal      1.014    
  -.001    -12         Bull market continues
                                               1/12/2000    Sell S12, S15       1.019     
 -.062   -64          Bear Market started
                                               12/30/2013  Sell S12               1.027      
-.027     -2          Decline to lower band.
                                               12/29/2014  No signal             1.017     
-.012      -62        Quick temporary drop to 3% lower band.

                                               12/29/2015  Sell S16               1.019     
-.10       -147        DJI fell below lower band.

                                                                     Most recently...
                                               12/27/2016  no Sell signal       1.017      +.030 
  -12        ?
                                               12/28/2016  no Sell signal       1.009      +.008 
 -14         ?

                                                (We start in 1965 because the NYSE Up and Down Volume needed to compute the V-I
                                                               is not available before the middle of 1965. )


               
Professionals have turned net bearish on the NASDAQ.  Its Accumulation Index remains
                        in a downtrend.  It appears unable to breakout past the (red) resistance and needs to regroup
                        for another assault on its highs.  Talk of a Trump trade war with China does not help.
             



              
           
Professionals have turned net bearish on SPY.  Its Accumulation Index is negative.
                  It has made a new price low.  We must see it find support now at its (red) 21-day ma.
                  The pivot point is 1.37 above today's close.  It could still stage a reversal, but the
                  short-term trend is now down.    
  
 
                               

                           Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/28/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/28/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs

  

                                 12/28/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                        Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               12/28/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INSURANC       .921          .921          .894          .894          .894          .894 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
AUTO           .86           .883          .883          .883          .883          .906 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .833          .888          .833 
FINANCE        .827          .86           .849          .849          .849          .849 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
PIPELINE       .8            1             1             .9            .8            .7 
EDU            .777          .777          .888          .888          .888          .888 
CHEM           .753          .794          .821          .794          .794          .78 
DOWJONES       .733          .8            .8            .766          .8            .8 
MILITARY       .733          .755          .755          .755          .755          .755 
OILGAS         .725          .762          .756          .775          .775          .793 
NIFTY          .714          .771          .742          .742          .742          .8 
SP-100         .714          .775          .755          .734          .744          .744 
INDMATER       .692          .721          .711          .701          .74           .74 
n=18
ELECTRON       .659          .701          .701          .675          .685          .685 
SEMI           .658          .708          .7            .675          .7            .691 
INDEXES        .652          .669          .669          .648          .652          .669 
RUS-1000       .647          .706          .693          .676          .7            .715 
SP500          .647          .707          .693          .675          .691          .701 
COAL           .6            .7            .7            .6            .5            .4 
COMPUTER       .6            .733          .666          .666          .633          .633 
UTILITY        .576          .673          .653          .615          .634          .692 
REIT           .572          .626          .616          .606          .606          .691 
GREEN          .571          .571          .571          .542          .6            .6 
NASD-100       .562          .645          .625          .593          .625          .635 
GAMING         .515          .545          .515          .545          .575          .575 
RETAIL         .5            .535          .553          .535          .642          .678 
COMODITY       .478          .478          .478          .464          .464          .464 
SOFTWARE       .411          .544          .485          .411          .5            .544 
BIOTECH        .393          .439          .454          .386          .397          .428 
BEVERAGE       .35           .35           .35           .3            .25           .3 
SOLAR          .315          .315          .315          .368          .368          .368 
HACKERS        .263          .263          .21           .263          .263          .263 
GOLD           .222          .185          .166          .166          .203          .203 
ETFS           .22           .25           .235          .235          .25           .308 
FOOD           .2            .2            .2            .133          .2            .2 
HOSPITAL       .142          .285          .285          .285          .285          .285 
CHINA          .107          .138          .107          .123          .153          .138 
BONDFUND       .027          .018          .036          .027          .036          .018 



==============================================================

             12-27-2016
     The Buy B4 still stands.  The bullish seasonality of the end of the year continues
                                                       to boost the DJI.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 67% of the time over the next 5 trading
                                                       days and has averaged a  0.9% gain over this period. 

                                                      Nearly always the DJI goes considerably higher when it was more than 2% over the
                                                      21-day ma on the 20th of December.  In our case, it  was 2.7% over the 21-day ma. 
                                                      The outlook for 10 days shows a some deterioration.  A pivot downwards sometimes
                                                      take place in the first week of January but less often in a Presidential Election Year.

                                                      There is still a good chance for another breakout run by the DJI past 20000.   See
                                                      how the DJI, the SP-500, OEX and NASDAQ are all at their key resistance kingdom's
                                                      levels. 

                                                      Many the Trump rally's leaders in the Big Banks and Regional Banks along with FAS
                                                      show either recent breakouts above flat tops or current flat top resistance levels that
                                                      commonly brings a breakout.  Give the market more chance to run here.

                                                      We still see uptrends in the Closing Powers and 5-day mvg. averages for DIA, SPY and FAS. 
                                                      However, it would not take much to turn down their 5-day moving averages.  Traders
                                                      should probably close out positions if their ETFs' 5-day ma turn down.  W can
                                                      always re-take long positions if their flat top resistance levels are later taken out.
 

                   
ClPower            ETF        Price      Pivot-Point            Difference         ITRS            IP21 (Change        5-day ma
                                                                       12/27     12/28 for 5-dma      (A)-(B)                                    from day before)  trend ann roc%
                                                                       (A)         (B)   
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             
 Both Up            DIA      199.21 +.16  199.42                (-.21)                                     +.023 (-.02)              Up  +.153
                              
Both Up            SPY      226.27 +.56  226.40                 (-.13)              -.037               -.047  (-.023)           Up  +.164
                              
Both Up            QQQ    120.82  +.62  120.55                (+.27)             -.067                -.037 (-.019)           Up  +.303

                              
                          MDY    305.12 +1.2  306.45                (-1.33)             +.005              -.073 (-.046)            Up +.075
                              
                          IWM    136.65 +.61  137.96                (-1.31)             +.036              -.107 (-.021)            Falling -.005%
                                                  
                             
Both Up            FAS      42.06 +.23    42.44                  (-.38)              +.373              +.092 (-.019)            Up +.74
                             
Both Up           TECL    52.62 +.68    52.52                  (+.10)             +.014              +.046 (-.016)            Up +.604  
                                                     
 SOXL   63.63 +2.24.  59.53                  (3.10)             +.360              +.133 (+.025)           Up +  2.54  


                                               
 NVDA, A Semi-Conductor,
                                                           remains our "Super Stock".

                   
SOXL shows the highest ITRS above.  It is not quite a QuickSilver pick even though it is running in all-time high territory
                              because its current IP21 is below +.15 and its Closing Power is not rising.  Using the 5-day ma trend still works well in it.
                              Even better would have been buying its star component, NVDA.  This has been out #1 ranked super stock.  Its great
                              strength was early-on detected by its long refusal to even re-test its rising 65-dma.  Only 4 stocks currently have not once
                              closed below their 65-fma even once in last 10 months.  Of these only NVDA and CASH currently show a positive
                              Accumulation Index.  The other two with negative IP21s are RTEC and SAIC.
         

  
 
                      Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/27/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/27/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs

  

                                 12/27/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                        Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 
 

           RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
12/27/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
PIPELINE       100%          1             .9            .8            .7            .7 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INSURANC       .921          .894          .894          .894          .894          .868 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
AUTO           .883          .883          .883          .883          .906          .906 
FINANCE        .86           .849          .849          .849          .849          .849 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .888          .833          .833 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .766          .8            .8            .833 
CHEM           .794          .821          .794          .794          .78           .835 
SP-100         .775          .755          .734          .744          .755          .775 
NIFTY          .771          .742          .742          .742          .8            .742 
OILGAS         .762          .756          .775          .775          .793          .787 
MILITARY       .755          .755          .755          .755          .755          .755 
COMPUTER       .733          .666          .666          .633          .633          .666 
INDMATER       .721          .711          .701          .74           .75           .75 
SEMI           .708          .7            .675          .7            .7            .7 
SP500          .707          .693          .675          .691          .701          .697 
RUS-1000       .706          .693          .676          .7            .716          .705 
ELECTRON       .701          .701          .675          .685          .69           .685 
COAL           .7            .7            .6            .5            .5            .6 
INDEXES        .669          .669          .648          .652          .673          .665 
N=24
UTILITY        .653          .653          .634          .615          .692          .653 
NASD-100       .645          .625          .593          .625          .645          .625 
REIT           .626          .616          .606          .601          .681          .646 
GREEN          .571          .571          .542          .6            .6            .6 
GAMING         .545          .515          .545          .575          .575          .575 
SOFTWARE       .544          .485          .411          .5            .544          .544 
RETAIL         .535          .553          .535          .642          .678          .625 
COMODITY       .478          .478          .464          .464          .464          .521 
BIOTECH        .439          .454          .386          .397          .424          .409 
BEVERAGE       .35           .35           .3            .25           .3            .4 
SOLAR          .315          .315          .368          .368          .368          .368 
HOSPITAL       .285          .285          .285          .285          .285          .285 
HACKERS        .263          .21           .263          .263          .263          .263 
EDU            .25           .235          .235          .25           .308          .294 
ETFS           .25           .235          .235          .25           .308          .294 
FOOD           .2            .2            .133          .2            .2            .333 
GOLD           .185          .166          .166          .203          .203          .148 
CHINA          .138          .107          .123          .153          .138          .153 
BONDFUND       .018          .036          .027          .036          .018          .018 

                        


==============================================================================================

                    12-26-2016      The Buy B4 still stands.  The bullish seasonality of the end of the year continues
                                                       to boost the DJI.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 67% of the time over the next 5 trading
                                                       days and has averaged a  0.9% gain over this period. 

                                                      Nearly always the DJI goes considerably higher when it was more than 2% over the
                                                      21-day ma on the 20th of December.  In our case, it  was 2.7% over the 21-day ma. 

                                                      Many of the Trump rally's leaders in the Big Banks and Regional Banks along with FAS
                                                      show either recent breakouts above flat tops or current flat top resistance levels that
                                                      commonly brings a breakout.  If Trump behaves himself, these financials should be
                                                      enjoy a golden age for a while.

                                                      We note also the still extant uptrends in the Closing Powers and 5-day mvg. averages
                                                       for DIA, SPY and FAS.  However, it would not take much to turn down their 5-day moving
                                                       averages.  You can see how the last prices on Friday  are quite close the pivot-points that
                                                       should be used for Tuesday's close.  DIA would only have to fall by .46 on Tuesday's close
                                                       and SPY would only need to fall by .19 on Tuesday's close to turn the short-term QuickSilver
                                                       5-dma down.  The Accumul. Indexes are weakening, too. Traders should probably close
                                                       out positions if their ETFs' 5-day ma turn down, since we can always re-take long
                                                       positions correctly if their flat top resistance levels are later taken out.




                               ClPower            ETF        Price      Pivot-Point            Difference         ITRS            IP21 (Change      5-day ma
                                                                       12/23    12/26 for 5-dma      (A)-(B)                                    from day before)  trend
                                                                       (A)         (B)   
                                                       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             
 Both Up            DIA      199.05 +.08  198.60                 (.45)                                     +.043 (-.09)            Up
                              
Both Up            SPY      225.71 +.33  225.53                 (.18)              -.041               -.024  (-.08)            Up
                              OpPwr Up        QQQ    120.2   +.08  120.9                 
 (-.70)             -.073               -.017 (-.05)              Up
                              
ClPwr down      MDY    303.92 +.68  304.66               (-.74)              -.001               -.069 (-.042)            Up
                              
ClPwr down      IWM    136.04 +.72  136.8                 (-.76)             -.024                -.086 (-.03)              Up
                                                  
                             
Both Up            FAS      41.83 +.20    41.44                 (.43)              +.376               +.111 (-.025)          Up
                             
Both Up           TECL    51.94 +.07    51.99                (-.05)              +.01                +.061 (-.050)           Up


                         

                                Tiger/Peerless Charts:
 

                          12/23/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/23/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs

  

                                 12/26/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               12/23/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
PIPELINE       100%          .9            .8            .7            .7            .7 
REGBANKS       .948          .948          .923          .948          .948          .948 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .9            .9            .9            .9            .9            .9 
INSURANC       .894          .894          .894          .894          .868          .868 
EDU            .888          .888          .888          .888          .888          .888 
AUTO           .883          .883          .883          .906          .906          .883 
FINANCE        .849          .849          .849          .849          .849          .87 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .888          .833          .833          .833 
CHEM           .821          .794          .794          .78           .835          .821 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
DOWJONES-30    .8            .766          .8            .8            .833          .8 
OILGAS         .756          .775          .775          .793          .793          .793 
MILITARY       .755          .755          .755          .755          .755          .733 
SP-100         .755          .734          .744          .755          .775          .755 
NIFTY          .742          .742          .742          .8            .771          .685 
INDMATER       .711          .701          .74           .75           .75           .769 
ELECTRON       .701          .675          .685          .69           .685          .67 
COAL           .7            .6            .5            .5            .6            .8 
SEMI-CONDUCTORS.7            .675          .7            .7            .7            .683 
RUS-1000       .693          .676          .7            .716          .709          .69 
SP500          .693          .675          .691          .701          .699          .689 
INDEXES        .672          .651          .655          .676          .668          .693 
COMPUTER       .666          .666          .633          .633          .666          .633 
UTILITY        .634          .634          .634          .673          .653          .576 
NASD-100       .625          .593          .625          .645          .635          .593 
REIT           .616          .606          .601          .676          .641          .587 
GREEN          .571          .542          .6            .6            .6            .6 
RETAIL         .553          .535          .642          .678          .625          .642 
GAMING         .487          .512          .538          .538          .538          .538 
SOFTWARE       .485          .411          .5            .544          .544          .529 
COMODITY       .478          .464          .464          .464          .521          .577 
BIOTECH        .454          .386          .397          .424          .409          .401 
BEVERAGE       .35           .3            .25           .3            .4            .4 
SOLAR          .315          .368          .368          .368          .368          .315 
HOSPITAL       .285          .285          .285          .285          .285          .285 
ETFS           .25           .25           .264          .308          .294          .308 
CHINA          .241          .258          .258          .258          .258          .274 
HACKERS        .21           .263          .263          .263          .263          .21 
FOOD           .2            .133          .2            .2            .333          .4 
GOLD           .166          .166          .203          .203          .148          .185 
BONDFUND       .036          .027          .036          .018          .018          .009 

        

======================================================================================================
                    12-22-2016   The Peerless Buy B4 and the Bullishness of a strong market now
                                    should give us hope that the DJI, Banks and Semi-Conductors
                                    should keep rising for the next two weeks, at least, even though
                                    talk of a trade war with China may continue to hold back
                                    the QQQ and NASDAQ as well as IWM and some leading Tech
                                    stocks like AAPL.

                                                    
  What Happened To DJI
                                                             after December 22nd since 1965


                                                      After                 Pct of Years   Avg. DJI
                                                                               DJI Rose       Gain
                                                   ----------------------------------------------------------
                                                    1 trading day       73.3%           0.3%
                                                    2 trading days     71.4%           0.5%  
                                                    3 trading days     67.3%           0.6%
                                                    5 trading days     73.5%           0.9%
                                                   10 trading days    77.6%           1.3%   Best
                                                   21 trading days    55.1%           1.1%


                                   
 It sure looks the Banks Stocks and FAS must continue to lead the market higher.
                                                       3x-Leveraged FAS is poised for a nearly perfect flat-top breakout and its 5-day ma
                                                       is rising again.   Since the odds of the DJI and the general market rising until the
                                                       end of the year,
 I would think that traders will want to Buy FAS for a breakout.

                                                       History shows over and over, it usually pays to play long the strongest sector in
                                                       a new bull market or in a major intermediate-term advance.  

                                                       There is no doubt which stocks have more moved up the DJI-30 the most.  It is
                                                       the bank stocks,  GS and JPM

                                                       There's no doubt which of the  leveraged ETFs shows a shows a strongly rising 5-dma,
                                                       high ITRS, very positive Accumulation Index and ITRS (relative strength).  It is FAS.

                                                       There is no doubt which group of stocks has been the best performing since Trump
                                                       was elected President.  We see this when we rank the Morningside sectors for the
                                                       last 33 trading days (back to November 4th). The South-Eastern and Pacific
                                                       regional banks are up the most, +34%.  We also see it in our ranking of groups by the
                                                       percentage of stocks over their 65-dma now.  And we have surely have noticed each day,
                                                       that it has been the regional bankers that have dominated the Bullish MAXCPs on our Hotline.

                                                       We are not alone in appreciating the many ways that Trump de-regulation
                                                       will greatly boost bank stocks, financials and brokerages.  This seems as close to being a
                                                       certainty as anything Wall Street ever offers.

                                                       In addition, the year-end effect would seem to guarantee still more buying by institutions.

                                                       So this now invites breakouts to new highs, which in turn causing short-covering and new buying.
                                                       All in all, I think that the best of these Bank stocks should rise another 10% by early
                                                       next year.  If that is how things work out, FAS should rise even more.

                                                                
   Regional Banks are market's leaders now.



                             
FAS has a near perfectly flag formation.
                                    A breakout now to 43 could set up a vertical
                                    ascent which matches its 14 point "flag pole"
                                    advance after November 4th.



                                    
           
                                                   All of the ETFS and stocks below will show a rising 5-day ma
                                                   except for IWM if they simply go sidewise tomorrow.  Of these
                                                   SOXL, FAS, GS and JPM show the highest ITRS (relative strength)
                                                   and IP21 (current Accumulation).

                                                                     ETF        Price      Pivot-Point        ITRS    IP21 
                                                                                     12/22    12/23 for 5-dma   
                                                                      -------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      DIA      198.97 -.19  198.19                        +.063
                                                                      SPY      255.38 -.39  225.04           -.042     -.016
                                                                     QQQ    120.12  -.34  119.6             -.074      -.012
                                                                     MDY    303.24 -1.82 302.93          -.005       -.027
                                                                      IWM    135.32 -1.74
135.91         +.013      -.05
                                                                     SOXL   60.49 +.96    58.84
            +.272     +.172    
                                                                     TECL   51.87 -.37    50.96
             -.007      +.059
                                                                     FAS      41.63 -.37    41.09           
  +.343    +.136

                                                                     GS      240.12 -1.32  238.9           
+.321    +.253       
                                                               
    JPM      86.89 +.14  84.94              +.178    +.358    
                                                                   AAPL   116.89 -.79  115.97             -.106     +.032

                         

                                               Tiger/Peerless Charts:
 

                          12/22/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/22/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs


                                 12/22/16:      Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN 
 
    

             RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
   
              12/22/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%           1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
AUTO           .925          .925          .95           .95           .925          .925 
INSURANC       .911          .911          .911          .882          .852          .882 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
PIPELINE       .888          .777          .666          .666          .666          .444 
FINANCE        .849          .849          .849          .849          .87           .86 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .888          .833          .833          .833          .833 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
CHEM           .768          .756          .743          .792          .78           .756 
OILGAS         .767          .767          .784          .779          .784          .761 
DOWJONES       .766          .8            .8            .833          .8            .833 
NIFTY          .742          .742          .8            .771          .685          .714 
SP-100         .731          .742          .752          .773          .752          .804 
MILITARY       .725          .725          .745          .745          .705          .725 
INDMATER       .702          .742          .752          .752          .772          .782 
ELECTRON       .684          .692          .701          .701          .684          .688 
COMPUTER       .68           .64           .64           .68           .64           .76 
RUS-1000       .676          .7            .716          .709          .691          .688 
SP500          .675          .691          .701          .699          .687          .687 
COAL           .666          .555          .555          .666          .888          .888 
UTILITY        .652          .652          .717          .673          .586          .456 
INDEXES        .647          .655          .676          .668          .689          .663 
SEMI           .646          .669          .669          .669          .654          .661 
REIT           .619          .614          .69           .649          .588          .512 
GREEN          .612          .677          .677          .677          .677          .677 
NASD-100       .595          .627          .648          .638          .595          .67 
RETAIL         .555          .666          .703          .648          .666          .74 
COMODITY       .464          .464          .464          .521          .577          .605 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .375          .375          .312          .312 
SOFTWARE       .369          .461          .507          .507          .492          .507 
BIOTECH        .36           .38           .394          .384          .387          .404 
BEVERAGE       .285          .238          .285          .38           .38           .333 
HACKERS        .285          .333          .38           .38           .285          .38 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .25           .25           .25 
ETFS           .235          .25           .308          .294          .308          .352 
GOLD           .142          .178          .178          .125          .16           .142 
FOOD           .133          .2            .2            .333          .4            .4 
CHINA          .105          .131          .118          .144          .157          .131 
BONDFUND       .027          .036          .018          .018          .009          .009 




============================================================================================
                          12-21-2016   The DJIA could not breakout above 20000.
                                        The Buy B4 and the Bullish seasonality of
                                        the second half of December should keep us long.

                                       
But traders should probably sell or reduce positions
                                                            if their stocks or ETFs close below their 5-day ma
                                                            pivot points tomorrow or break their rising Closing
                                                            Power uptrends.  We can always retake these positions
                                                            if flat topped breakouts do occur.


                                              
ETF     Price      Pivot-Point             ITRS    IP21 
                                                                                12/21      12/22 for 5-dma   
                                                                      -------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      DIA      199.16 -.26  198.66                          +.069
                                                                      SPY      255.77 -.63  226.81           -.041     +.002
                                                                     QQQ    120.46 -.09  120.40            -.074      -.015
                                                                     MDY    305.06 -1.39 304.68           +.004     +.019
                                                                      IWM    137.06 -0.9  136.16            +.024     +.031
                                                                     SOXL   59.53          
60.82              +.233     +.169    SOXL's 5-dma will probably turn down tomorrow,
                                                                     TECL   52.24 -.28    51.94
              +.002    +.064
                                                                     FAS      42.0   -.44    41.63              +.373    +.154

                                                                     GS      241.44 -1.65 
243.0            +.329    +.875       GS's 5-dma will probably turn down tomorrow,
                                                               
    JPM      86.75 +.22  86.00              +.171    +.378    
                                                                   AAPL   117.06 +.11 115.82            -.073     +.004

                                                            So far, Bank Stocks have been doing most of the heavy-lifting of this market.
                                                            QQQ and TECL need to breakout to help lead the advance. A Trump trade war
                                                            with China will hit US tech stocks with production facilities in US particularly hard.
                                                            The NASDAQ's broadening pattern looks particularly vulnerable.  It will not
                                                            take much to turn its short-term trend downward.  That could quickly become
                                                            a much bigger decline.  Let's see how techs respond to Navarro's appointment.


                                              

                                                  
A Trump Trade War?
     
                                                           Trump's appointment of Peter Navarro (from
                                                           San Diego) puts US trade policy with China up
                                                           close, front and center for immediate consideration
                                                           by investors.  In his view, China is already at war with
                                                           the US, so we must protect ourselves. 

                                                                    

                                                           See  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMlmjXtnIXI

                                        
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/us/politics/peter-navarro-carl-icahn-trump-china-trade.html?emc=edit_th_20161222&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894    

                                                         I talked to him for an hour in the 1980s.  He was interested in the British
                                                         Jobs Policies, or the lack of them before WWII, that were a big
                                                         part of my Doctoral Dissertation.  He made it clear that he was not a fan of
                                                         Keynesian Public Works policies
                                                          (See.
http://tigersoftware.com/tigerblogs/83---2011/index.html )

                                      
His appointment as special foreign trade consultant to
                                                         the President is a shot across the bow for China. 
                                                         It also suggests to me that Trump may want to work on the
                                                         terms of trade with China before he launches a big
                                                         Public Works program.  He probably realizes that putting
                                                         money in lots of new workers' hands might under present
                                                         conditions be a bigger boost for the Chinese economy than
                                                         the American.
                                        
 
                                           
December DJI Strength.
 
                                  See charts at http://www.tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/December-Strength/INDEX.htm

                                             What happens when DJI is up more than 1.019%
                                             over the 21-day ma between December 18th and 20th?

                             Nearly always the DJI goes considerably higher.  But in nearly half of the 18 cases,
                             there is a 1%-3% pullback and paper loss in January.

                                      17 previous cases in bull markets since 1929: 
             
                                               10 very big runs developed.
                                               5 gains of about 5%
                                             
 2 cases, a Peerless Sell stopped the market at the end of the year.

                                      8 Paper losses:  1%  - 3%

                                                  1943  - 1% to 2%.
                                                  1949  - 2% 
                                                  1954  - 2% to 3% 
                                                  1960  - 1%
                                                  1963  - 2%
                                                  1984  - 2%
                                                  1985 - 3%
                                                  1988  - 2%

        

                             Here are all the cases since 1929 when the DJI was in a bull market
                             and the DJI closed more than 1.9% over the 21-day ma between December
                             18th and December 20th, as has just happened in 2016.

                                              Date             close/              Resulting DJI action.
                                                                  21-dma

                                              -------------------------------------------------------------- 
                                             12/17/1942   1.029              118.7 to 136 in March 1943
                                             12/20/1943   1.023              136.1 to 141 in March 1944 
                                             12/16/1949  1.019               198 to 224 in June 1950
                                             12/20/1954  1.023               397 to 419 in March 1955
                                             12/19/1956  1.024               494  rally only end of year where S16 occurred.
  

                                             12/19/1958  1.024               573  to 640 in May 1959

                                             12/18/1959   1.024              676  rally only end of year where S9 occurred.
                                              12/19/1960  1.024              616  to 700 in May 1961
                                              12/17/1963  1.023              766  to 830 in July 1961

                                              12/18/1970   1.027              825 to 950 in April 1971   (start of bull market)
                                             
12/20/1971  1.048               885 to 970 in April 1972  (start of recovery after sell-off)
                                              12/18/1984  1.02                1212  to 1275 in Feb. 1985
                                              12/19/1985  1.035              1544 to 1800 in May 1986
                                              12/19/1988  1.029              2173 to  2325 in Feb 1989|
                                              12/19/2003  1.029              10278 to  10700 in Feb 2004

 
                                              12/16/2010  1.02                11499 to  12700 in April 2011

                                              12/20/2011  1.022              12104   to 13100 in April 2012



                            

                                       Tiger/Peerless Charts:
 

                          12/21/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil              

                                 12/21/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                            Bearish MINCPs

 
    

             RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
             12/21/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          .972          .972          .972 
AUTO           .925          .95           .95           .925          .925          .9 
INSURANC       .911          .911          .882          .852          .852          .852 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .833          .833          .833          .833          .777 
FINANCE        .849          .849          .849          .87           .86           .849 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .833          .8            .8            .8 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
PIPELINE       .777          .666          .666          .666          .444          .444 
OILGAS         .767          .784          .779          .784          .761          .767 
CHEM           .756          .743          .792          .78           .756          .756 
INDMATER       .742          .752          .752          .772          .792          .772 
NIFTY          .742          .8            .771          .685          .714          .771 
SP-100         .742          .752          .773          .752          .793          .773 
MILITARY       .725          .745          .745          .705          .725          .705 
RUS-1000       .7            .716          .709          .691          .684          .675 
ELECTRON       .692          .701          .701          .684          .692          .671 
SP500          .691          .701          .699          .687          .683          .667 
GREEN          .677          .677          .677          .677          .677          .645 
SEMI           .669          .669          .669          .654          .669          .616 
RETAIL         .666          .703          .648          .666          .74           .722 
INDEXES        .655          .676          .668          .689          .663          .663 
UTILITY        .652          .717          .673          .586          .456          .413 
COMPUTER       .64           .64           .68           .64           .68           .6 
NASD-100       .627          .648          .638          .595          .648          .648 
REIT           .614          .69           .649          .588          .512          .543 
COAL           .555          .555          .666          .888          1             .888 
COMODITY       .464          .464          .521          .577          .605          .591 
SOFTWARE       .461          .507          .507          .492          .507          .507 
BIOTECH        .38           .394          .384          .387          .404          .377 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .375          .312          .312          .312 
HACKERS        .333          .38           .38           .285          .38           .333 
ETFS           .25           .308          .294          .308          .352          .367 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .25           .25           .125 
BEVERAGE       .238          .285          .38           .38           .333          .285 
FOOD           .2            .2            .333          .4            .4            .4 
GOLD           .178          .178          .125          .16           .142          .16 
CHINA          .131          .118          .144          .157          .157          .197 
BONDFUND       .036          .018          .018          .009          .009          .009 


 ===================================================================================
 
                                                   Peerless/TigerSoft Hotlines and Links 

                   12-20-2016   The DJIA is now just 25 points from 20,000!
                                         Our Buy B4 and the Bullish Santa Claus
                                         Rally Period should produce a breakout past
                                         that magic level soon.



                                        
See how many key ETFs, Indexes and stocks have flat
                                                             tops after small retreats.  These usually bring price
                                                             breakouts.  So, that is a source of bullish optimism here.

                                                             So, is the finding in yesterday's Hotline that the DJI
                                                             has always since 1965 gone significantly when it was
                                                             more than 2% over the 21-day ma on December 19th
                                                             or 20th.  The DJI is now 2.7% over the 21-day ma.



                                       

                                                 Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/20/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil                 

 

                                                       Regional Banks are the sector that has advanced the
                                                       most since Trump's election.  A strong advance by
FAS  would
                                                       constitute a breakout BUY above a flat top.

 
 

                               
12/20/2016:  
  
                                                       Bullish MAXCPs     (Regional banks remain the leaders.)                                                                     
 
                                                       Bearish MINCPs  
 

                                12/20/16:      Bank Stocks
DB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

             

                           A Golden Green Age for Banks Lies Ahead.

                          
Quite apart from technicals and market history, we would do
                                         well to appreciate how extraordinarily bullish lower taxes and
                                         "deregulation" are for Wall Street and corporate America.  If Trump can
                                         avoid being lured into unproductive personal squabbles,
                                         like today's with Bill Clinton or his Saturday Night Live
                                         impersonator, Alex Baldwin, next year should be as bullish
                                         as Coolidge's Administration was in 1925. 

                                         I think it is not at all clear yet that Trump has the self-control to keep
                                         his focus on carrying through on his economic targets.  More and
                                         more of his political enemies will surely goad and annoy him, so
                                         that he is distracted and becomes angry.

                                                      

                                        
  Pres. Calvin Coolidge - 1928.

                          
Even so, the Republican control of Congress and Trump's
                                         campaign promises to lower taxes and cut regulations will
                                         do wonders for Banks and Finance companies. 

                                         I started making a list of the many changes in laws and regulations
                                         that seem likely to occur in the years ahead.  Each will make more money
                                         for all Banks, Finance companies and Brokerages.  When you
                                         look through this list, you will see that lower corporate and capital gains taxes
                                         are just the beginning of the new Money-Green Revolution on
                                         Wall Street.  

                          
1)  It's a certainty I think that Spending cuts will especially
                                         hit regulatory staff in the banking, finance and brokerage industries.. 

                                         2)  Banks will soon be allowed to merge and dominate competition.
                                         The prospect of mergers will surely run up the Regional Banks stocks.
                                         Trusts were one of the hall-marks of the 1920s.

                                         3) Commercial Banks will probably be allowed to go into the
                                         Brokerage and Underwriting Businesses and vice verse. 
                                         No more Dodd Frank.
 
                                         4) The Big Banks will be allowed to get even bigger.  Regional
                                         banking may disappear just as Intra-State banking did.

                                         5) Banks will surely be allowed to use more leverage to make more
                                         questionable loans, to buy out one another and to buy shares of stock.

                                         6) Insider trading will not be much enforced.  Big banks will rampantly
                                         rig and manipulate stocks, as they did in 1920s.
                           7) Consumer protection provisions in existing bank loan laws
                                         will surely be whittled away. 

                                         8) Personal Bankruptcies will become harder so that Banks
                                         and Finance Companies will be protected from those who refuse
                                         to honor their personal debts.   For example, in the 1920s
                                         consumer goods could be repossessed if the customer failed to make
                                         just one payment.

                                         9) Enforcement of existing laws will be reduced even below
                                         Obama's Justice Department's low standards.  Wall Street and
                                         the Banking Industries will be self-regulating as they were
                                         in the 1920s.  The mantras of "Transparency" and "Accountability"
                                        will be replaced by the slogans, "Due diligence", "Let the buyer beware"
                                        and, above all, "Let the Devil take the hindmost".
                                        
                                         10) Time-consuming "Compliance"will be dramatically  reduced.

                          
 11) Laws making government officials wait for a year or more
                                         before they take a job in the industry that they used to regulate
                                         will probably be changed or go unenforced.  Similarly,
                                         laws requiring divestitures and blind trusts for those moving
                                         from the private to the government sector will likely be
                                         voided or will go unenforced.

                                         12) Margin requirements will be lowered to facilitate more
                                         Public trading.

                                         13) Medicare and Social Security could become so shredded so that
                                         individuals will then be forced to try to invest and speculate
                                         just as the stock market gets even more over-bought. 

 
               RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

 

               12/20/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%             1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          .972          .972          1 
AUTO           .95           .95           .925          .925          .9            .95 
INSURANC       .911          .882          .852          .852          .852          .852 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
FINANCE        .849          .849          .87           .86           .849          .86 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .833          .777          .888 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
DOWJONES       .8            .833          .8            .8            .8            .833 
NIFTY          .8            .771          .685          .714          .771          .828 
OILGAS         .784          .779          .784          .761          .767          .831 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
INDMATER       .752          .752          .772          .792          .772          .841 
SP-100         .752          .773          .752          .793          .783          .793 
MILITARY       .745          .745          .705          .725          .705          .784 
CHEM           .743          .792          .78           .756          .756          .792 
UTILITY        .717          .673          .586          .456          .413          .695 
RUS-1000       .716          .709          .691          .684          .676          .748 
RETAIL         .703          .648          .666          .74           .722          .796 
ELECTRON       .701          .701          .684          .692          .671          .719 
SP500          .701          .699          .687          .683          .669          .754 
REIT           .69           .649          .588          .512          .538          .639 
GREEN          .677          .677          .677          .677          .645          .741 
INDEXES        .676          .668          .689          .663          .663          .697 
SEMI           .669          .669          .654          .669          .616          .669 
PIPELINE       .666          .666          .666          .444          .444          .666 
NASD-100       .648          .638          .595          .648          .659          .712 
COMPUTER       .64           .68           .64           .68           .6            .68 
COAL           .555          .666          .888          1             .888          1 
SOFTWARE       .507          .507          .492          .507          .507          .553 
COMODITY       .464          .521          .577          .605          .591          .619 
BIOTECH        .394          .384          .387          .404          .377          .394 
HACKERS        .38           .38           .285          .38           .333          .476 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .312          .312          .312          .375 
ETFS           .308          .294          .308          .352          .367          .485 
BEVERAGE       .285          .38           .38           .333          .238          .333 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .25           .125          .125 
FOOD           .2            .333          .4            .4            .4            .4 
GOLD           .178          .125          .16           .142          .16           .232 
CHINA          .118          .144          .157          .157          .197          .197 
BONDFUND       .027          .027          .009          .009          .009          .018 

 
============================================================

                   12-19-2016   Operative Buy B4 and Bullish Santa Claus
                                         Rally Period should produce another rally
                                         until Year's end.

                                         But we will likely need to see breakouts not
                                         only by the DJI, but by the NASDAQ, QQQ
                                         and TECL.  The market must not narrow and
                                         depend too much on Financials and Big Big Banks.





                                        
There is ample reason to be optimistic.  Trump's victory
                                                              puts very, very wealthy businessmen in charge.  For the
                                                              immediate-term and intermediate-term futures, this is exactly
                                                              what Wall Street wants.  The rising market is betting that
                                                              the impulsive, shoot-from-the-hip Trump will be subordinated
                                                              by the Trump who has grand plans to revitalize the US economy and
                                                              re-industrialize America.  In due time, we will be better able to answer
                                                              the most important question:  Is Trump "crazy like a fox" or
                                                              just plain crazy?  It will be interesting!

                                                                            
 Yes, Trump will have his loud opponents.
                                                                              But Wall Street will probably ignore them.


                                                              For now, this is not a market where Public dissidents will have much effect.
                                                              It is a very professional market, unlike the one Nixon had to cope with
                                                              that declined soon after he was elected.  It is much more like the DJI in
                                                              1919 when even strikes and race riots had little or no effect on a bull
                                                              market.  It was the Fed that deliberately engineered a market top back then to
                                                              curb the post war surge of price-inflation and brought on the severe
                                                              decline in 1920-1921.

                                      
The Bloody, Bull Market of 1919 demonstrates that Wall Street
                                       can remain insulated from lots of civil strife for a long time.




                                                              Another point: if the DJI were, in fact, going to go higher, we would expect
                                                              to see exactly what we see now, namely beaded flat-tops in its price-line which
                                                              beckon for breakouts.  

                                          
                                                              New Research       
                                       
The DJIA now is 2.5% over the 21-day ma.  This is quite
                                                            strong for mid-December.  
                                                                    
                                                              What has happened in the past when DJI was more than 2%
                                           over the 21-day ma between December 18th and 20th going back to 1965
                                           and leaving out the cases where it was in a bear market on a Peerless Sell.


                                          Answer:   Nearly always the DJI went considerably higher. Below are all the
                                          cases since 1965.  There were no significant paper losses. 


                                          12/18/1970   1.027  825 to 950 in April 1971   (start of bull market)
                                          12/20/1971  1.048   885 to 970 in April 1972  (start of recovery after sell-off)
                                          12/18/1984  1.02   1212  to 1275 in Feb. 1985
                                          12/19/1985  1.035  1544 to 1800 in May 1986
                                          12/19/1988  1.029  2173 to  2325 in Feb 1989|
 
                                          12/19/2003  1.029  10278 to  10700 in Feb 2004
                                          12/16/2010  1.02    11499 to  12700 in April 2011
                                          12/20/2011  1.022  12104   to 13100 in April 2012
                                          (See all the charts here.)

                                                             

                                               Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/19/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                               
12/19/2016:  
  
                                                       Bullish MAXCPs                                                                          
 
                                                       Bearish MINCPs
 

                                12/19/16:      Bank Stocks
DB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

            RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
  
              12/19/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          .972          1             1 
AUTO           .95           .925          .925          .9            .95           .975 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
INSURANC       .882          .852          .852          .852          .852          .852 
FINANCE        .847          .869          .858          .847          .858          .869 
DOWJONES       .833          .8            .8            .8            .833          .766 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .833          .777          .888          .888 
JETS           .818          .818          .818          .818          .818          .818 
CHEM           .792          .78           .756          .756          .804          .804 
OILGAS         .779          .784          .761          .767          .831          .802 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
SP-100         .773          .752          .793          .783          .793          .762 
NIFTY          .771          .685          .714          .771          .828          .8 
INDMATER       .752          .772          .792          .772          .841          .851 
MILITARY       .745          .705          .725          .705          .784          .823 
RUS-1000       .709          .691          .684          .676          .744          .724 
ELECTRON       .703          .685          .694          .672          .72           .685 
SP500          .699          .687          .683          .669          .752          .716 
COMPUTER       .68           .64           .68           .6            .68           .68 
GREEN          .677          .677          .677          .645          .741          .709 
UTILITY        .673          .586          .456          .413          .673          .565 
SEMI           .671          .656          .671          .619          .671          .634 
INDEXES        .668          .689          .663          .663          .697          .697 
COAL           .666          .888          1             .888          1             1 
PIPELINE       .666          .666          .444          .444          .666          .444 
REIT           .649          .588          .512          .538          .634          .67 
RETAIL         .648          .666          .74           .722          .777          .777 
NASD-100       .638          .595          .648          .659          .712          .648 
COMODITY       .521          .577          .605          .591          .619          .605 
SOFTWARE       .507          .492          .507          .507          .538          .492 
BIOTECH        .384          .387          .404          .377          .394          .384 
BEVERAGE       .38           .38           .333          .238          .333          .333 
HACKERS        .38           .285          .38           .333          .428          .428 
SOLAR          .375          .312          .312          .312          .375          .375 
FOOD           .333          .4            .4            .4            .4            .4 
ETFS           .294          .308          .352          .367          .485          .441 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .125          .125          .125 
CHINA          .144          .157          .157          .197          .197          .184 
GOLD           .125          .16           .142          .16           .25           .232 
BONDFUND       .027          .009          .009          .009          .018          .018 



 

============================================================

                    12-16-2016   Operative Buy B4 and Bullish Santa Claus
                                         Rally Period should produce another rally.
                                         But we will likely need to see more groups stage
                                         good advances.  Otherwise, we will get a Peerless
                                         Sell signal because of a dangerous deterioration in
                                         our breadth and Accumulation indicators. 

                    
Do not underestimate the bullish seasonal forces now at work.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen
                                almost 80% of the time over the ten trading days following December 18th.  The average gain
                                was more than 1.7%.   For decades, Wall Street sages have pointed to the "Santa Claus
                                effect" and how nicely a rally nearly always marks the end of the year.  With some theories,
                                so much discussion and agreement would long ago have destroyed the concept's reliability.
                                That is not true of the "Santa Claus" rally, even when the DJI already seems over-extended,
                                Look below simply at the data from 1999 to 2016.  Buying on December 18th in a rising market,
                                like now, would have consistently made a trader money provided he then sold on the next Peerless
                                Sell or sometime in January.

                                              December 18th
                                              DJI - Price
                               
                                1999      11257.43                                             11484.86  12/29/1999  Sell S16
                                2000      10645.42    low 12/20  10318.93        10912.41  1/4/2001  Sell S12
                                2003      10248.08                                             10702.51  1/26/2004 
                                2004      10649.92                                             10854.54  12/28/2004 No Sell. Decline to 10368.  Then rally to 10936-S4..
                               
2005      10875.59                                             11043.44  1/11/2006   No Sell.  Decline to 10667.  Then rally to 11164--S9..
                               
                               
2006      12441.87                                             12786.04  2/20/2007
                                2009      10398.89                                             10725.43  1/19/2010
                                2010      11491.91                                             12391.95  2/28/2011
                                2011      11868.81                                             13232.62  3/16/2012   Sell S1
                                2012      13250.96    low 13190.84                    15409.39  5/28/2013

                                2013       16167.97                                             16577.66  12/31/2013  Sell S16
                                2014       17778.15                                             18288.63  3/8/2014
                                2015       17128.55                                              17720.98  12/29/2016  Sell S16

                                            Rising Interest Rates    
   
                    
The 1/4% rise in the Federal Funds' short-term rates has been translated into far more
                                meaningful jumps in longer term rates.  These will ripple through the economy.  Since November  4th,
                                the 30 year mortgages have risen from 2.59% to 3.19%.  The yield on the
                                much-watched 10-year year bonds has gone from 1.78% to 2.59%.  As a result, we
                                have seen recent pullbacks in a number of stock groups, particularly housing, retailers
                                and industrial materials by 3% in the last three days. 

                                Disparate rises in longer-term bonds may also partly explain the recent rise in Finance stocks.
                                The rates that they will loan out money has gone up much more than the rise in what they
                                themselves must pay to borrow short-term. 

                                The main technical problems now are that Volume is not expanding and Breadth is not improving.
                                See the Hourly DJI's lagging OBV Line and how a really bad breadth day now would break the
                                still uptrending NYSE A/D Line.  The DJI would probably still hold up or even rise if these
                                breakdown now because of the bullish seasonality.  But such breakdowns would make
                                for trouble when the Santa Claus effect is exhausted.

                                Unless we see clear breakouts this week by QQQ, TECL (technology) and the NASDAQ to
                                new highs, it appears the market, as measured by the DJI and mostly powered by Bank Stocks,
                                will be simply holding up where it is because of the bullish seasonality until the end of the year.
                                Without more segments of the market participating, it will be hard for the finance stocks to
                                power a  big advance.  Instead, there may be a temptation to take profits early in 2017.

                                             Quickly Deteriorating "IP21s" Brings Tiger (Not Peerless)
                                                            Sell S18s Warnings.


                                Reflecting the interest rate outlook, we should note now the rapid deterioration in our TigerSoft
                               Accumulation Index (IP21) readings for such ETFs as DIA, SPY, FAS, RETL, MDY and  IWM
                               When the IP21 (current Accum. Index drops by more than .20 in five trading days, a Tiger Sell S17 
                               can be produced using the user-selected Tiger Signals (under Signals(1).  This Tiger S18 is not a
                                sell on its own.  But it is a warning that the next rally to the recent highs is apt to fail unless volume
                                picks up,  unless the hurried institutional distribution ends and unless these ETFs can start closing again
                                near their daily highs.  Unfortunately, Volume will probably be too low this coming week to cause
                                these ETFs' Accumulation Index to improve by much.  Thus, this will become a warning for the
                                end of December.
 
                               

                                               Hold ETFs Long Provided Their 5-day Moving Averages
                                                  and Closing Powers are Rising.

                                     
This applies now to DIA, QQQ and TECL.   

 

                        

                                            Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/16/16:    Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                               
12/16/2016:  
  
                                                       Bullish MAXCPs                                                                          
 
                                                       Bearish MINCPs
 

                                12/16/16:      Bank Stocks
DB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
               12/16/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          1             1             1 
AUTO           .925          .925          .9            .95           .975          .95 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .952 
COAL           .888          1             .888          1             1             1 
FINANCE        .868          .857          .846          .857          .868          .901 
INSURANC       .852          .852          .852          .852          .852          .852 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .833          .777          .888          .944          .888 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .8            .833          .766          .7 
OILGAS         .784          .761          .767          .831          .802          .813 
CHEM           .78           .756          .756          .804          .804          .841 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
INDMATER       .772          .792          .772          .841          .851          .851 
SP-100         .752          .793          .783          .793          .762          .721 
MILITARY       .705          .725          .705          .784          .823          .823 
RUS-1000       .691          .684          .676          .744          .724          .738 
INDEXES        .689          .663          .663          .697          .697          .668 
SP500          .687          .683          .669          .752          .718          .711 
ELECTRON       .685          .694          .672          .72           .681          .707 
NIFTY          .685          .714          .771          .828          .8            .771 
GREEN          .677          .677          .645          .741          .709          .709 
PIPELINE       .666          .444          .444          .666          .444          .444 
RETAIL         .666          .74           .722          .777          .777          .851 
SEMI           .656          .671          .619          .671          .634          .656 
COMPUTER       .64           .68           .6            .68           .68           .68 
NASD-100       .595          .648          .659          .712          .659          .659 
REIT           .588          .512          .538          .634          .664          .664 
UTILITY        .586          .456          .413          .673          .565          .434 
COMODITY       .577          .605          .591          .619          .619          .605 
SOFTWARE       .492          .507          .507          .538          .507          .523 
FOOD           .4            .4            .4            .4            .4            .4 
BIOTECH        .389          .406          .379          .396          .386          .433 
BEVERAGE       .38           .333          .238          .333          .333          .333 
SOLAR          .312          .312          .312          .375          .375          .375 
ETFS           .308          .352          .367          .485          .411          .441 
HACKERS        .285          .38           .333          .428          .476          .523 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .125          .125          .125          .125 
GOLD           .16           .142          .16           .25           .232          .214 
CHINA          .157          .157          .197          .197          .184          .236 
BONDFUND       .009          .009          .009          .018          .018          .018 


========================================================================
                   12-15-2016   Buy B4 Still Operates. 


                                                              We will be entering the very bullish last two weeks of December
                                                              on Monday when the DJI typically rises 2% and 90% of time
                                                              over the next two weeks.  The Peerless programs, as a result, do
                                                              not do not easily produce Sell signals at this time of the year.

                                                              When a Republican has won the Presidential Election in a rising
                                                              market, there have been no tops for at least two weeks, except for
                                                              Nixon and December 1968.  Unless one wants to compare how
                                                              divided the country was then over the war in Viet Nam with how
                                                              politically divided the country is now, bullishness seems appropriate.  
 
                                                              I think we have to let Professionals show us when to sell.  As all the
                                                              major market ETFs' Closing Powers are above their rising 21-dma,
                                                              let's see if the DJI can get past
20,000.  This old bull market might
                                                              then start another leg up as it did in 1925, 1989 and 1995.

                                                              Stay long GS, AAPL and TECL while their Closing Powers and 5-day mvg.
                                                              averages are rising.   Traders watch for the flat top breakouts shown
                                                              in our new Leveraged Opportunity Patterns' Section.                                                             


                                                             
                                                            

                                                              Bullishly, the DJI has been unable to produce two straight down days since
                                                              Trump's victory.  Do not underestimate Trump's wealthier true believers
                                                              or the bullishness of prospects of much lower taxes and fewer
                                                              government regulations on corporations.  Keep in mind the
                                                              image of the "Roarin' 1920s".  That is what Trump is aiming for.
                                       
                                                              Many of the indexes, like the NASDAQ, NYSE, OEX and SP-500
                                                              have reached overhead resistance lines.  But if the new Buy B4 is
                                                              right, then we could see take-offs in the market as happened between
                                                              1924-1925, 1988-1989 and 1994-1995.   At least, at this stage,
                                                              I would want to give the market a chance to breakout above 20000
                                                              for as long as Professionals keep pushing upwards our Closing Powers
                                                              on all the major ETFs.

                                                            
 Current Volume and OBVPCT of DJIA Chart




                                                              What makes the DJI (above) so bullish now is the complete switch from
                                                              red (bearish) to blue (bullish) by the Tiger OBVPct Indicator.  See above
                                                              how it has risen from below -.37 to above +.65 in only six weeks.  This is much
                                                              more dramatic a turn-around than in any of the 3 cases below or any
                                                              other situation I can find in a Presidential Election November.  Viewed this way,
                                                              The closest parallel would seem to be just before the 1995 take-off that started the
                                                              huge advance until early 2000. 

                                                              However, the case where the Republican Nixon won the White House
                                                              in 1968 should also be mentioned.  Then too, but in early October before the election,
                                                              the DJI's OBVPct Indicator moved up a long way and reached +.692.  Because
                                                              of the unpopular War in Viet Nam and inflationary pressures, the FED
                                                              started raising rates in December 1968 and the DJI peaked seven weeks after
                                                              the OBVPct's peak.  If we take this as the worst case, then the DJI would next
                                                              peak seven weeks after December 8th this year when the OBVPct hit its
                                                              high at +.658.  My sense is that the broader Public played a far greater role in the
                                                              market back then.  Stocks are traded and owned by far fewer individual members
                                                              of the Public now.  So, a divided Public is less significant now, though the political
                                                              chasm seems just as wide.
                                                         

                                                           
  1968-1969 Bull Market Peak in early December
                                                              Republican Nixon Wins.  Inflation.  Higher Interest Rates. Unpopular War...

                                                 
                                                                      
                                                              


                                                            
 1924-1925: Republican Coolidge Wins
                                                              December and January Strong




                                                           
                                                
1988-1989  Republican Bush-I Wins
                                                 December strong, Breakout in February

            
                                                            
                                            
                                    
1994-1995: Republicans Win Congress
                                     December strong, Breakout in February






                                                             
                   

                      Tiger/Peerless Charts:

                          12/15/16:     Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                               
12/15/2016:  
  New:  Leveraged ETFS' Opportunity Patterns: Flat Topped Breakouts.
                                                       Bullish MAXCPs                                                                          
 
                                                       Bearish MINCPs
 

                                12/15/16:      Bank Stocks
DB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), FAS,
                                                       Super Stock - 
NVDA
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN, AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFT,    TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN       
    

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              12/15/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          .888          1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          1             1             1             1 
AUTO           .925          .9            .95           .975          .95           .95 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .952          .952 
FINANCE        .857          .846          .857          .868          .901          .89 
INSURANC       .852          .852          .852          .852          .852          .882 
HOMEBLDG       .833          .777          .888          .944          .888          .944 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .916 
DOWJONES       .8            .8            .833          .766          .7            .633 
SP-100         .793          .783          .793          .762          .721          .69 
INDMATER       .792          .772          .841          .851          .851          .871 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .777 
OILGAS         .761          .767          .831          .802          .813          .808 
CHEM           .756          .756          .804          .804          .841          .853 
RETAIL         .74           .722          .777          .777          .851          .87 
MILITARY       .725          .705          .784          .823          .823          .823 
NIFTY          .714          .771          .828          .8            .771          .771 
ELECTRON       .694          .672          .72           .681          .707          .703 
RUS-1000       .684          .676          .744          .724          .737          .723 
SP500          .683          .669          .752          .718          .711          .693 
COMPUTER       .68           .6            .68           .68           .68           .64 
GREEN          .677          .645          .741          .709          .709          .677 
SEMI           .671          .619          .671          .634          .656          .656 
INDEXES        .668          .663          .697          .697          .668          .638 
NASD-100       .648          .659          .712          .659          .659          .617 
COMODITY       .605          .591          .619          .619          .605          .577 
REIT           .512          .538          .634          .664          .664          .659 
SOFTWARE       .507          .507          .538          .507          .523          .538 
UTILITY        .456          .413          .673          .565          .434          .347 
PIPELINE       .444          .444          .666          .444          .444          .444 
BIOTECH        .406          .379          .396          .386          .43           .403 
FOOD           .4            .4            .4            .4            .4            .333 
HACKERS        .38           .333          .428          .476          .523          .428 
ETFS           .352          .367          .485          .411          .426          .441 
BEVERAGE       .333          .238          .333          .333          .333          .238 
SOLAR          .312          .312          .375          .375          .375          .375 
HOSPITAL       .25           .125          .125          .125          .125          0 
CHINA          .157          .197          .197          .184          .236          .302 
GOLD           .142          .16           .25           .232          .214          .267 
BONDFUND       .009          .009          .018          .018          .018          .018 



======================================================================
                   12-14-2016

                                
The DJI's chart shows it has not reached its rising resistance line.  12300
                                                  would achieve that.  But 20000 may be a barrier until the bullishness
                                                  of the Santa Claus seasonality from December 17th to December 31st
                                                  kicks in.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 89% of the time in the 10 trading
                                                  days following December 17th. The average gain here is a whopping 2.1%.



                                          
                                                        As long as TECL does not close below 48, its
                                                        flat-topped breakout into all-time territory
                                                        looks pretty good.  Trump needs the support
                                                        of the biggest high tech companies as much
                                                        or more than they need him. 
     


                                              

                                                  But first a little more pullback seems likely.  The 5-day moving averages have turned
                                                  down for FAS, MDY and  IWMSPY's will turn if it falls by more than 0.73 tomorrow.
                                                  Expect only a minor retreat in these. 

                                                  Today's meeting between Trump and the CEOs of AMZN, GOOG, AAPL...
                                                  went well.  I suppose it could have degenerated into a shouting match since
                                                  Trump during the Campaign questioned their patriotism in exporting so many jobs.
                                                  Instead, each of the CEOs was invited to call him directly if they had a problem.
                                                  This appear promising.  I would continue to buy/hold TECL (above) as long as it does not
                                                  fail its breakout.  The 5-day ma of GS and AAPL are still rising, so I would continue
                                                  to hold these.

                                                  Gold (below) broke below its recent support while the Dollar (UUP below) got stronger. 
                                                  Since Gold feeds on financial fear, I think we have to be optimistic that 12000 will be taken
                                                  out by the DJI before Inauguration Day.   Gold and the Dollar are nearly reverse
                                                  images of each other.  Wall Street's Big Banks love a strong Dollar.   Trump may
                                                  have to choose between his wishes to create a new Manufacturing Base in America and
                                                  the advise given by his Goldman Sachs graduates who will place a higher priority on a
                                                  strong Dollar.


 



  

                                   Will Trump Be Trumped by The Federal Reserve?

                                
Though the Fed's rate hike today was expected and quite minimal, Trump's new appointments
                                                  and optimistic plans for the US economy failed for once to dominate the news.  In addition,
                                                  Investors were reminded today, as they have not been for a month, that the new President
                                                  will face many well-entrenched enemies to his policies.  He will not easily be able to launch a
                                                  grand program of Public Works.  He will not easily get American corporations not to invest
                                                  overseas.  Janet Yellen's words today were a warning to him. 

                                                                                                  A Veiled Warning

                                                  Their clear implication was that a 4% national economic growth rate would surely be
                                                  be inflationary and that would cause the Fed to raise interest rates to protect the Dollar
                                                  and fight inflation.  The unspoken message within her words was:

                                                             "You, Mr. President, may want to revive American manufacturing and get back
                                                                many of the jobs that went overseas, but we at the Fed have a different mission,
                                                                we seek a strong Dollar and very low inflation because that is what
                                                               our clients, the Big Banks, want.  Maybe, a stronger Dollar will continue to cause
                                                               American capital to go overseas for investment opportunities and make imports
                                                               cheap and exports  more difficult, but those things are just not our problem. 

                                                                And at the first signs of Inflation, we will  raise rates.  We understand that
                                                                this will make your task of borrowing to play for Public Works harder,
                                                                but that's not our problem.  That's yours.  And you better learn to cooperate and
                                                                play by our rules, or we can make things very difficult for you."

                                                    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/17/502480053/federal-reserve-chair-throws-cold-water-on-trump-economic-plan

                                                                   
 Fed's Number Two sends warning to Trump - Nov. 21, 2016
                                           

                         12/14/16:     Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                              
12/14/2016:  
   Bullish MAXCPs                                                                            
                                                       Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN       
    
 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              12/14/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       .972          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .952          .952          .904 
AUTO           .9            .95           .975          .95           .95           .9 
COAL           .888          1             1             1             1             1 
INSURANC       .852          .852          .852          .852          .882          .852 
FINANCE        .846          .857          .868          .901          .89           .879 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .916          1 
DOWJONES       .8            .833          .766          .7            .633          .666 
SP-100         .783          .793          .762          .721          .69           .69 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .777          .888 
HOMEBLDG       .777          .888          .944          .888          .944          .888 
INDMATER       .772          .841          .851          .851          .871          .841 
NIFTY          .771          .828          .8            .771          .771          .742 
OILGAS         .767          .831          .802          .813          .808          .808 
CHEM           .756          .804          .804          .841          .853          .853 
RETAIL         .722          .777          .777          .851          .87           .814 
MILITARY       .705          .784          .823          .823          .823          .862 
RUS-1000       .676          .744          .724          .737          .721          .702 
ELECTRON       .672          .72           .681          .707          .703          .685 
SP500          .669          .752          .718          .711          .693          .685 
INDEXES        .666          .7            .7            .67           .645          .645 
NASD-100       .659          .712          .659          .659          .617          .617 
GREEN          .645          .741          .709          .709          .677          .709 
SEMI           .619          .671          .634          .656          .656          .619 
COMPUTER       .6            .68           .68           .68           .64           .64 
COMODITY       .591          .619          .619          .605          .577          .605 
REIT           .538          .634          .664          .664          .654          .614 
SOFTWARE       .507          .538          .507          .523          .538          .507 
PIPELINE       .444          .666          .444          .444          .444          .444 
UTILITY        .413          .673          .565          .434          .347          .304 
FOOD           .4            .4            .4            .4            .333          .4 
BIOTECH        .379          .396          .386          .43           .4            .362 
ETFS           .367          .485          .411          .426          .441          .411 
HACKERS        .333          .428          .476          .523          .428          .38 
SOLAR          .312          .375          .375          .375          .375          .437 
BEVERAGE       .238          .333          .333          .333          .238          .238 
CHINA          .197          .197          .184          .236          .302          .342 
GOLD           .16           .25           .232          .214          .267          .267 
HOSPITAL       .125          .125          .125          .125          0             0 
BONDFUND       .009          .018          .018          .018          .018          .018 



 
    
=====================================================================
    
                   12-13-2016  
  The Peerless Buy B4 should keep the market rising, though the
                                                  FED will have a lot to say about what happens for the next few days. 
                                                  Expect the market to take off if the Feds do not raise rates.  That was
                                                  what happened in early 1987 and in late 1999.  Most observers expect
                                                  a 1/4% rate hike.  More important will be what the FED hints it will do
                                                  if Trump does get a stimulus package through Congress. 
                                                  (See warnings from NY Times:
                                                  http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html?emc=edit_th_20161214&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894  )

                                                 The DJI's 5-day moving average cannot easily turn down.  Both its Opening
                                                  and Closing Power are still rising.  Channel price resistance is expected above
                                                  20,263.  TECL's bullish breakout above its flat top in all-time high territory
                                                  should be bought.  Watch for news about Trump's meeting tomorrow with
                                                  high tech companies. 




                                
 Money seems to be coming out of some of the Financials and going into
                                                  tech stocks.  Watch the close in FAS tomorrow.  If it should close 0.57
                                                  below today's close, its 5-day ma will turn down.  Its internals are still
                                                  excellent, but traders should probably take profits in it.  All-time high
                                                  breakouts by QQQ and TECL should be bought by traders and held
                                                  as long as their 5-day moving averages are rising and they do not close
                                                  below their pivot-points.  See their charts further below.



                                          
                                 Buy TECL's Breakout
                          QQQ's Internals are not as good.



                                      
                                        DJI-2000 and The Fed's Decision on Rates

                                
Two hours before today's close, the DJI was less than 68 points, or 1/3%, below
                                                  20,000, a level that very few people back in August 1983 expected it to reach
                                                  in one generation.  Will 20,000 be easily breached?  I think so.  The round number
                                                  "20000" does not have the same psychological resistance built into it as the
                                                  DJI's 100-level, 1000-level or the 10000-level did.  Only if the FED raises short-term
                                                  rates by more than 1/4% will there be a problem.  If the FED does not raise
                                                  rates, look for an explosive rally past 20,000 much like occurred in January 1987.

                                                  It took almost 18 years (1906-1924) of testing the DJI-100 barrier before it was
                                                  finally overcome decisively.  It then took only  6 months for the DJI to
                                                  overcome the 200-level in 1928.  It did this despite the FED's raising the Discount
                                                  Rate several times in 1928.  The market's momentum-psychology was too strong
                                                  to stop.

                                                  It took almost 18 years (1966-1983) to get completely above the DJI-1000 round
                                                  number resistance.  The DJI then easily shot past the 2000-barrier on its first try
                                                  in January 1987.  It did this despite a lagging NYSE A/D Line and NASDAQ.
                                                  The FED had lowered the Discount Rate to 5.5% on
8/21/1986 and did not raise it
                                                  until two months before the 1987 Crash.  It was said that the Fed had "accommodated
                                                  the rally" and then put the breaks on too hard.

                                                  http://www.tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/8-18-2003/index.htm


                                                                    Breaching 2000 was quick and easy.
                                                                         The Fed did not raise rates.




                                                  When the DJI faced 10,000 for the first time in April 1999, it was as though it
                                                  was drawn to it like a magnet.  A badly lagging A/D Line did not prevent the
                                                  DJI from decisively breaking above it in several weeks.  Greenspan's delay in raising interest
                                                  rates until January 2000 is often given as the reason the DJI rose to 11700 in early 2000.




                      12/13/16:    
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                           
12/13/2016:  
   Bullish MAXCPs  (Fewer  regional banks)                                                                           
                                                    Bearish MINCPs
 (Bond Funds are rising a little and have disappeared
                                                          from this group.  The most bearish plays here now are short ETFs
                                                          on the general market.)

                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN       
    

    RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 

               12/13/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%           1             1             1             1             .888 
EDU            100%           1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
AUTO           .95           .975          .95           .95           .9            .875 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .952          .952          .904          .904 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .944          .888          .944          .888          .833 
FINANCE        .857          .868          .901          .89           .879          .835 
INSURANC       .852          .852          .852          .882          .852          .823 
INDMATER       .841          .851          .851          .871          .841          .801 
DOWJONES       .833          .766          .7            .633          .666          .6 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .916          1             .833 
OILGAS         .831          .802          .813          .808          .808          .79 
NIFTY          .828          .8            .771          .771          .742          .742 
CHEM           .804          .804          .841          .853          .853          .731 
SP-100         .793          .762          .721          .69           .69           .67 
MILITARY       .784          .823          .823          .823          .862          .823 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .777          .888          .888 
RETAIL         .777          .777          .851          .87           .814          .722 
SP500          .752          .718          .711          .693          .685          .628 
RUS-1000       .744          .724          .738          .722          .703          .655 
GREEN          .741          .709          .709          .677          .709          .516 
ELECTRON       .72           .681          .707          .703          .685          .663 
NASD-100       .712          .659          .659          .617          .617          .585 
INDEXES        .7            .7            .67           .645          .645          .616 
COMPUTER       .68           .68           .68           .64           .64           .6 
UTILITY        .673          .565          .434          .347          .304          .26 
SEMI           .671          .634          .656          .656          .619          .589 
PIPELINE       .666          .444          .444          .444          .444          .444 
REIT           .634          .664          .664          .654          .614          .538 
COMODITY       .619          .619          .605          .577          .605          .605 
SOFTWARE       .545          .515          .53           .545          .515          .469 
ETFS           .485          .411          .426          .441          .411          .264 
HACKERS        .428          .476          .523          .428          .38           .333 
FOOD           .4            .4            .4            .333          .4            .4 
BIOTECH        .396          .386          .43           .4            .359          .41 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .375          .375          .437          .25 
BEVERAGE       .333          .333          .333          .238          .238          .19 
GOLD           .25           .232          .214          .267          .267          .25 
CHINA          .197          .184          .236          .302          .328          .197 
HOSPITAL       .125          .125          .125          0             0             .25 
BONDFUND       .018          .018          .018          .018          .018          .009 


=====================================================

                   12-12-2016   
20,000+ before 19,000. 

                  
The Buy B4, rising ETFs' Closing Powers and 5-day mvg. averages argue persuasively
                            in favor of holding our long positions, though the FED may ruffle the market on Wednesday with
                            something other than a 1/4% increase in  short-term rates.  Trump's appointment of Exxon's
                            CEO as Secretary of State is pleasing the market over-night.  Predictably, the NY Tines
                            and the anti-Russian establishment in Washington are calling for an investigation into the
                            ties between WikiLeaks and the Russian Government.  The DC Democrats there find it easier
                            to scapegoat their own pick of foreigners for their own failings.  For us, this means that Trump will not
                            sail through his first few months in office without a cyclone or two.  So,  Wall Street may let the DJI
                            breakout above 20,000 to draw in more buyers, but sometime around January 20th, Trump's
                            Inauguration it will hit its peak. 

                            A good presentation of the real barriers Trump will face in carrying out his "populist" agenda,
                            including tariffs and Public Works: Richard Wolff - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9KMzEZ1JQ4

                            Wednesday, Trump representatives will have an important meeting with AAPL and other tech companies.
                            They may promise to invest more in the US if Trump exempts their produces from his planned
                            new tariff on Chinese goods.  This meeting looms up as amore important than the Fed's.

                           

                                                             DJIA and Peerless Signals


                                                                       
                                                                      DIA


                                                                               
                                                                       SPY


                                                                       
                                                                      FAS                                               

                            

                  
                                               
Image result for APPLE Trump

                   
The NASDAQ, QQQ and TECL could not break out today above their flat tops, but their |
                             internals are still very bullish.  I expect them to breakout soon.  If they do breakout, AAPL
                             should play well.  Note its bullish Closing Power divergence from prices.  Its recent price action reminds
                             me of  how it looked last July when it rose back above its 65-dma.  Clearly Pros are more
                             confident about AAPL than the Public.  Here the big question is whether Trump will produce
                             a trade war with China that hurts AAPL. 
 Trump has promised a 45% tariff against China.  This
                             would make its products considerbly more expensive here.
AAPL has already agreed to repatriate billions
                             from Europe and will meet Trump representatives on Wednesday about his plans for high techs.
                             MSFT, GOOGLE, AMAZON and TESLA will be present, too.

                                           
 Apple May Join $100 Billion Softbank Fund Pitched to Donald Trump  fortune.com/2016/12/12
                                         
  Chinese media: Trump's trade war will hurt Apple and Boeing  Nov 14, 2016
                                           
Apple boss expects to repatriate billions to the US next year | Business ...   Sep 1, 2016   
                                                            
Image result for APPLE Trump 

 


                         

                            The number of stocks and ETFs that have had their 5-day ma visually rise for 23 or more straight
                            days jumped by 95 today.  In this sense, the market is broadening and getting stronger.   

 

                           12/12/16:     Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                 
12/12/2016:  
   Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                          Bearish MINCPs
 (Bond Funds are rising a little and have disappeared
                                                          from this group.  The most bearish plays here now are short ETFs
                                                          on the general marlet and financials.)

                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN       
       
   
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
 

  
              12/12/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             1             .888          .888 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
AUTO           .975          .95           .95           .9            .85           .8 
HOMEBLDG       .944          .888          .944          .888          .777          .666 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .952          .952          .904          .904          .904 
FINANCE        .868          .901          .89           .879          .835          .846 
INSURANC       .852          .852          .882          .852          .823          .794 
INDMATER       .851          .851          .871          .841          .811          .801 
JETS           .833          .833          .916          1             .833          1 
MILITARY       .823          .823          .823          .862          .823          .843 
CHEM           .804          .841          .853          .853          .743          .743 
OILGAS         .802          .813          .808          .808          .79           .802 
NIFTY          .8            .771          .771          .742          .742          .742 
GAMING         .777          .777          .777          .888          .888          .888 
RETAIL         .777          .851          .87           .814          .722          .703 
DOWJONES       .766          .7            .633          .666          .6            .566 
SP-100         .762          .721          .69           .69           .659          .628 
RUS-1000       .724          .738          .722          .703          .654          .634 
SP500          .718          .711          .693          .685          .626          .612 
GREEN          .709          .709          .677          .709          .516          .548 
INDEXES        .7            .67           .645          .645          .616          .594 
ELECTRON       .681          .707          .703          .685          .663          .624 
COMPUTER       .68           .68           .64           .64           .56           .52 
REIT           .664          .664          .654          .614          .532          .467 
NASD-100       .659          .659          .617          .617          .585          .574 
SEMI           .634          .656          .656          .619          .589          .522 
COMODITY       .619          .605          .577          .605          .605          .605 
UTILITY        .565          .434          .347          .304          .26           .26 
SOFTWARE       .515          .53           .545          .515          .469          .409 
HACKERS        .476          .523          .428          .38           .333          .285 
PIPELINE       .444          .444          .444          .444          .444          .555 
ETFS           .411          .426          .441          .411          .25           .176 
FOOD           .4            .4            .333          .4            .4            .4 
BIOTECH        .386          .43           .4            .359          .406          .366 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .375          .437          .25           .125 
BEVERAGE       .333          .333          .238          .238          .19           .19 
GOLD           .232          .214          .267          .267          .25           .267 
CHINA          .184          .236          .302          .328          .197          .236 
HOSPITAL       .125          .125          0             0             .25           .25 
BONDFUND       .018          .018          .018          .018          .009          .009 




                                  
Traders, When to take profits?


======================================================================


                    12-9-2016   
20,000 before 19,000.  The new Buy B4
                    even argues for much high prices. 
 



                   
Republican Partisan Buying expected at least until End of Year. 

                    We have to take into account Presidential partisan euphoria
                    just like we do Monthly Seasonality.  As long as
DIA's 5-dma is rising
                    and the Closing Power stays in its uptrend, we should
                    expect still higher prices, even though the DJI is now up
                    10% since the Election and the Round Number 12,000
                    Should Act as some resistance.

                            
DIA's 5-Day MA has been visually rising for 24 straight days.  Traders should sell if
                                           it closes below its 5-day ma Pivot-Point or  when it comes close to 200 intra-day.  In the
                                           meantime, watch how the "band-wagon effect draws in more and more investors.
 
                                          




                  
 > The sudden reversal Buy B4 is sometimes very bullish.
                                        
 See  http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.h
tm
                            When the DJI's OBVPCT has been very (red) negative for more than
                                          a month in the 3rd or 4th quarter and then suddenly rises above +.10,
                                          we can construe a "Visual Buy B4" (See the 5 past cases since 1970.
                                          Each shows a sudden reversal and an unexpectedly good subsequent rally.)

                  
 > Trump Is The New Coolidge and That's Bullish.
                                     
 Republican Presidential-Election victories in bull markets usually bring rallies
                                       to at least December.  See recent Hotlines.

                              > Republican victories for White House almost always bring rallies to end of year.
                                
Fed Rate Hikes at much higher levels in December cause pullbacks.

                                      
1920  Ongoing Bear Market - December Decline
                                     
 1924  10/14/1924 (99.20) to 1/13/1925 (123.60)
                                       12/10/1928 (263.9) - 2/2/1929 (319.7)
                                       10/22/1952 (263.1) to 1/5/1953 (293.8)
                                       11/28/1956 (455.1)  to 12/31/1956 (499.5)
                                      
12/2/1968 (983.34) to 2/25/1969 (899.8)
                                                 
8/30/1968 Rate Hike 5.25% Sends market up until December
                                                                 
12/18/1968 5.50% (+1/4%) Marks top in bull market.
                                                                 
4/4/69 6.0%   - Bear Market soon follows.
                                                                  11/13/1970 5.75% Bull market is launched

                                       12/11/1980 (908.45) to 1/6/1981 (1004.69)
                                                
 7/28/1980 10.0% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                 
9/26/1980 11.0% Tightening again.
                                                                 11/17/1980 12.0% Stops rally and drops DJI to lower band.
                                                                 12/5/1980 13.0% Drops DJI to lower band and support.   

                                                    
12/7/1984 (1163.21) to 3/1/1985 (1299.36)
                                                
11/21/1984 8.5% (1/2% reduction)  Mkt declines to lower band.
                                                                 12/24/1984 8.0% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                 5/24/1985 7.5% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                 3/7/1986 7.0% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                 4/21/1986 6.5% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                7/11/1986 6.0% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                                8/21/1986 5.5% Drop in rates in on-going bull market
                                                               
9/4/1987 6.0% Mkt rallies to upper band and then Big October 1987 Crash!
                                                     
 11/16/1988 (2038.58) - 2/7/1989 (2347.14)
1                                        12/1/2000 (10373.54) - 2/1/2001 (10983.63)
                                          10/25/2004 (9749.99) - 12/28/2004 (10854.54)
                                          

                                          
                              > Impending Republican Control of Congress Is Very Bullish.
                                       
Coolidge had a Republican Congress behind him.  This gave investors
                                        confidence that he would carry through his campaign pledges to lower taxes,
                                        de-regulate and impose protective tariffs.  The DJI rose 24% on Coolidge's
                                        re-election coupled with a Republican Congress. 
                                        10/14/1924 (99.20) to 1/13/1925 (123.60)
                                        And, more important, a year after the 1924 election, the DJI was 60%. 

                                        People forget that Republicans controlled Congress between 1995 and 1996.
                                        the start of the "Clinton bull market".  1995 was a superb year for bulls.

                                        Bush II was supported by a Republican Congress from 2003-2007.  This
                                        helped push up the market after the 2004 Presidential Election.  This brought
                                        a good December rally in DJI and also one that lifted DJI from lower band
                                        to upper band in Feb. and March of next year.                                       


                              > The Fed's Raising of Rates by 1/4% This Week Ought Not To Upset Stocks too much.
                                        
Such a rise in the Federal Funds (short-term rates) is being built into the market.
                                         The decline in Bonds has made the Feds intentions clear.  A rise by 1/2%, on the
                                         other hand, would be disturbing enough to invite profit-taking/  We should watch
                                         this chart of Short-Term Rates.





                              > December's bullishness is greater in the second half of this month than the first half.
                                
Since 1965, the DJI has risen 74.5% of the time in the ten trading days following
                                 December 11th.  A retreat by the DJI after December 16th will bring a new Buy B13
                                 provided the DJI drops below the 1% upper band.  It is now at the 3.4% upper band.


                              > QQQ, TECL and NASDAQ could make bullish flat-topped breakouts.
                                 
These would show the market's breadth is expanding and that the rally will
                                  not be dependent so much on booming Bank Stocks.  A close above 120
                                  by QQQ (shown below) should be bought.  This is important resistance; it is the all-time
                                  high dating back to March 2000.



                               >Traders should stick with the rising 5-day moving averages
                                 of FAS, GS, Bullish Regional Banks.





                              
                                >DIA's 5-day ma has been rising visually for 24 straight days.

                               >There are now 78 stocks over $3.50 which have been
                                  rising for 24 straight days or more.  These may be
                                  considered the leaders of the new Trump mini-Bull Market.
                                  We will watch these closely for signs of a top in the coming weeks.

                                           Index of 78 High Momentum - Super Stocks


 

AMTD   BDGE  BNCL   BOBE   BSRR   CAAS   CACB   COLB  CSFL  CSV  DDM   DIA   DZZ   EVR   FAS  FAST
FDX    FFBC  FHN    FOR    FXZ    GBLI   HEI    HSC   HWKN  HXL  IBKC  ICFI  IRBT  IVE   IWD  IWX
IXG    IYF   IYT    JKF    KAI    KEM    KFY    KMG   KRU   KWR  LDOS  LNC   LUK   MAR   MDP  MGV
MHO    MS    MSM    MTG    MTW    PBIP   PHMD   PRF   PYZ   PZN  RBC   RGA   RIGP  SIVB  STLD THG
TICC   TITN  TOWN   TSCO   UBNK   UCBI   UDOW   UTI   UYG   VAW  WABC  WAL   WSFS  XLI
   Stocks whose 5-dma has been visually rising for 24 or more straight days.  12/9/2016


                                                  Updated Charts 
                                                                           


                           
12/9/16:    
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                 
12/9/2016:  
     Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                          Bearish MINCPs
 (Bond Funds are rising a little and have disappeared
                                                          from this group.  The most bearish plays here now are short ETFs
                                                          on the general marlet and financials.)

                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN       
       
                            
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

  
              12/9/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             .888          .888          .888 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
TRANSP         .952          .952          .904          .904          .904          .904 
AUTO           .95           .95           .9            .85           .8            .775 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
FINANCE        .901          .89           .879          .835          .835          .824 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .944          .888          .777          .666          .555 
INSURANC       .852          .882          .852          .823          .794          .794 
INDMATER       .851          .871          .841          .811          .801          .792 
RETAIL         .851          .87           .814          .722          .703          .685 
CHEM           .841          .853          .853          .743          .743          .731 
JETS           .833          .916          1             .833          1             1 
MILITARY       .823          .823          .862          .823          .843          .823 
OILGAS         .813          .808          .808          .79           .802          .732 
GAMING         .777          .777          .888          .888          .888          .777 
NIFTY          .771          .771          .742          .742          .742          .685 
RUS-1000       .738          .722          .703          .655          .631          .599 
SP-100         .721          .69           .69           .659          .628          .628 
SP500          .711          .693          .685          .626          .608          .576 
GREEN          .709          .677          .709          .516          .548          .483 
ELECTRON       .707          .703          .685          .663          .624          .593 
DOWJONES       .7            .633          .666          .6            .566          .6 
COMPUTER       .68           .64           .64           .56           .52           .6 
INDEXES        .666          .641          .641          .611          .59           .544 
REIT           .664          .654          .614          .532          .467          .416 
NASD-100       .659          .617          .617          .585          .574          .542 
SEMI           .656          .656          .619          .589          .522          .485 
COMODITY       .605          .577          .605          .605          .605          .563 
SOFTWARE       .53           .545          .515          .469          .409          .348 
HACKERS        .523          .428          .38           .333          .285          .285 
PIPELINE       .444          .444          .444          .444          .555          .555 
UTILITY        .434          .347          .304          .26           .26           .239 
BIOTECH        .432          .402          .361          .408          .371          .331 
ETFS           .426          .441          .411          .25           .176          .147 
FOOD           .4            .333          .4            .4            .4            .266 
SOLAR          .375          .375          .437          .25           .125          .125 
BEVERAGE       .333          .238          .238          .19           .19           .142 
CHINA          .236          .302          .328          .197          .236          .236 
GOLD           .214          .267          .267          .25           .267          .232 
HOSPITAL       .125          0             0             .25           .25           .25 
BONDFUND       .018          .018          .018          .009          .009          0 


================================================================

                    12-8-2016    20,000 before 19,000.  The new Buy B4
                    even argues for much high prices.

                  
 Past new (OBVPct) Buy B4s:
                              See  http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.h
tm  

                 
   Trump's true-believers are in control.  They are now making converts of those fund
                              managers that must perform to keep their jobs.  Even Democrats and moderate
                              Republicans will soon start to buy and set aside their misgivings about what they perceive
                              as Trump's weaknesses - which they are sure will eventually rock the market,
                              namely his willingness to take on all his opponents at once. his verbal recklessness and
                              his manic narcissism. 

                              But first, I think, the DJI will reach 20,000 before it falls back very far.  Such is the magnet
                              of that round number.  Last night I showed how 10,000 attracted the DJI even when the
                              A/D Line was badly lagging the DJI in 1999.  What better way to draw in new buyers.
                              Picture Wall Street's appeal when the headlines read: "DOW JONES - 20000!"

                              Keep in mind, too, that what the DJIA does, the NASDAQ may not be able to do.  It is even
                              normal for the NYSE A/D Line to lag the DJI by anywhere from two to ten months
                              before the DJI forms a major top.  It usually also takes 4 or 5 sets of major Peerless Sells
                              before a significant top.  Of course, the longer the A/D Line lags the DJI, the more more
                              vulnerable the stock market eventually becomes: notably, 1929, 1972-1973, 1980-1981,
                              1987, 1999-2000 and 2007-2008.

                              Let the broad market weaken, if it must.  Holding long Bank Stocks and ETFs is
                              recommended.  In addition, Bonds remain very weak.  Hold them short, too.  Bonds
                              and stocks sometimes go in opposite directions.





                                                 
Updated Charts 
                                                                           


                           
12/8/16:    
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                 
12/8/2016:  
     Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                          Bearish MINCPs
 (Bond Funds are rising a little and have disappeared
                                                          from this group.  The most bearish plays here now are short ETFs
                                                          on the general marlet and financials.)

                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       
                
                       Trump Is Wall Street's Friend, for Now....                               

                   
Who could have expected how quickly the Dow Jones would rise after a
                              Trump victory?  Will the DJI still go much higher?  Should the S9/S12
                              be discarded for a new Buy signal?  Is it too late to buy now?  Should
                              the S9/S12 be trusted a little longer?  The DJI has only risen 4.1%
                              against it. 

                              Reasonable questions - those.  My position is the Hotline always doubted
                              the Sell S9/S12. 

                              The S9/S12 is a Sell signal that has failed before: but only three times
                               in 24 earlier cases.  So, it may seem right to conclude that there is only a
                              12.5% chance of failing now.  But how often does a Trump come along?
                              Just once in 230 years! 

                              He seems to about to give Wall Street everything that they ever dreamed of.  It's
                              as though Goldman Sachs has staged a not-so hidden coup.

                              On the weekend after the Election, after help from the San Diego Tigers
                              at our monthly User Group meeting, I wrote a long Hotline giving many reasons
                              for not trusting it.  See below the Hotline of November 11th, "Reasons not
                              to go short..."
.

                              1)  The DJI's rise to the upper band right after the Election was unusually
                              swift.  I mentioned the DJI's 1000 point intra-day turn-around
                              in two days.  This showed enormous Professional buying.  So, it was perfect
                              for us.  All we had to do I said was to watch the Closing Power of DIA.  As long
                              as the CP stayed above its 21-day ma, we should assume Professionals were
                              still net buyers and we should stay long.  We could use the QuickSilver tactics.
                              As long an ETF had a rising Closing Power and a rising 5-day ma, no significant
                              pullback was likely.  DIA's 5-dma has yet to turn down since Trump's election.
                              Up day volume (shown in blue) has dwarfed Down day volume (shown in red).
                              These are prime QuickSilver trading considerations that appear on our
                              6-month Tiger charts, 
                             

                              2) There had only been one November case of an S9/S12 and that was right
                              after Reagan's Election.  In the 1980 case, the S9/S12 occurred much farther above
                              the 21-day ma than in our case and the internals were much weaker.  From
                              this, I concluded that our S9/S12 was not so bearish as back then.  I considered
                              re-writing the program then to disallow a November S9/S12 with the internals
                              our case shows.  But decided we should just wait.  If the market rose more,
                              we would get a Buy B4, either old or new. 

                    
        3) Decembers are bullish.  They seldom bring sell-offs.  An S9/S12 would be confronted
                             with a 75% to 80% historic chance for a DJI rally.


                             4) When the DJI first shows a low and red OBVPct but then that indicator swiftly rises above
                             +.10,  the Sell S18 should be reversed.  A little more study here revealed that when the
                             OBVPct rises above +.25, a reliable DJI  take-off has occurred.  And sometimes,
                             these produce very big moves.  The huge bull market from 1995-2000 began in this
                             way.


                             5) Mostly, I have written each night about how very bullish Trump is for the market because
                             Trump's policies are a perfect throw-back to Calvin Coolidge's,  the main difference being that
                             Trump tirelesslly trumpets his views everywhere while "Silent Cal" avoided making speeches
                              wherever possible. 

                             6) Big Money will run the Government now.  Coolidge and his Treasury Secretary (Andrew Mellon)
                             gave Wall Street exactly what they wanted in the 1920s: deregulation, lower taxes and protective tariffs.
                             Mellon was the third richest person in America.  Only JD Rockefeller and Henry Ford were richer.
                             Trump has appointed a Cabinet of Billionaires and "Centipede"-Millionaires.
                                                  
Trump's billionaire cabinet could be the wealthiest administration ever ...
                                                    https://www.theguardian.com › US News › Trump administration

                            7) The effects of Trumps policies and his Cabinet picks were immediately picked up on by Wall Street.
                            Big Banks (like GS) and Bank ETFs (like FAS) were the first out of the gate, starting November 4th.
                            Big Banks were the first group to show 100% of their stocks above the 65-day ma, a ranking which I
                            consider important enough to post each night.  

                            8) Night after night since Trump's Election, the industry group most represented on list of Bullish MAXCPs
                            has been regional banks.  This made very simple our choice about what stocks to buy.  Buying into the
                            strongest stocks in any industry group that overwhelmingly fills out the Bullish MAXCP always seems to
                            be profitable, just as the reverse is true for our Bearish MINCPs.

                            9.) Accordingly, over and over, I have recommended buying Bank Stocks/ETFs.  And because they
                            were so strong and for all the reasons mentioned above, I said the S9/S12 was not as important as
                            being long the right sectors now, the ones that the new Trump Administration would benefit the most.


                                              REGIONAL BANKS ARE SOARING!


                                                     
                         Hold Bonds Short

 
                                                 But would I buy now, I've been asked? 

  

                            Last night I said a pull back to 21-day ma would be all we are likely to get, considering   
                            that we are in December and that the 21-day ma is rising at an annualized rate above 80%.
                            I added that we should not look for such a retreat until DIA's Closing Power or 5-day ma turns down.
                            They are still rising.  They cannot easily turn down right now.    So, the market as measured by the DJIA
                            seems bound to go higher.

                            I've mentioned that GS is the most important DJIA-30 stock simply because it is so high-priced
                            At 240+ it accounts for more of the DJI's price movements than CSCO (30), PFE (31), GE (32),
                            INTC (36), KO (41), VZ(51) and NKE (52) combined.  The DJI weights stocks just by its
                            price, not by capitalization, trading volume x price, number of employees.  When you see the
                            DJI make a big move, ask what the role of GS is in it.  And look at its daily and weekly chart.
                            GS made a perfect short-term flat-resistance  breakout above 215.  It long-term chart shows
                            its all-time high is 247.92 (Sept. 30, 2007).  It seems certain to reach that level on this move.
                            And it may go a lot higher.

                            Back when Hoover had just been elected in 1928, the highest priced DJI stock was RCA,
                            which had just be admitted to the DJIA.  Between October 1928 and March 1929, it
                            rose from 200 to above 500.  Think how much this boosted the closely watch Dow Jones Industrial
                           Average.  In this way, much of the DJI's move back then was entirely artificial, like now, and
                            result of big advances in a few high priced DJIA stocks.  

                            But that did not stop the advance. The DJI rose quickly all winter until the FED raised
                            "call rates" and the "Discount Rate" in February 1929.  But so powerful and under-regulated
                            was Wall Street that they soon got the FED to withdraw their rate increase as it applied to
                            margin borrowing.  The DJI then rose 20% more, until September 1929, despite a badly lagging A/D Line.

                            In the early Summer of 1929, the FED backed off  from its efforts to stop the stock market bubble
                            because of pressure from the big banks on Wall Street, which included their disregarding the
                            Fed's recommended higher "call rates" on margin accounts and because commercial banks did not want
                            to hurt an economy that was already weakening.   Only when Britain raised its Discount Rate to 7%,
                            a full point above where it was in the US, was the American stock market bubble finally pierced.


                            Who can say now that we will not see what happened after November 1928.  Back then, the
                             FED found it very hard to stop a manic market.  It remains to be seen if Yellen "and friends" will
                             find a way now to cool the market.  The Jobs' Report was not very strong.  Commercial banks will resist a
                             meaningful rise in rates. They are enjoying the investment spot-light. So, they
                             will tell the FED to "Give Trump a chance."
  And if history repeats, the NY Fed will yield
                             to pressure from Wall Street's biggest banks so that big banks can get their stocks up
                             even more, if only to make the Christmas stock bonuses more profitable.  

                             If the FED were about to do anything that would stop the rally, we ought to first see signs
                             of selling by Professionals and a Closing Power for the DIA and FAS which turns down. 
                             That is not true yet.  


 
                                  RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
  
 

  
              12/8/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             .888          .888          .888          .888 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
TRANSP         .952          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
AUTO           .95           .9            .85           .8            .75           .75 
HOMEBLDG       .944          .888          .777          .666          .555          .5 
JETS           .916          1             .833          1             1             .833 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
FINANCE        .89           .879          .835          .835          .824          .835 
INSURANC       .882          .852          .823          .794          .794          .794 
INDMATER       .871          .841          .811          .801          .782          .772 
RETAIL         .87           .814          .722          .703          .666          .666 
CHEM           .853          .853          .743          .743          .719          .719 
MILITARY       .823          .862          .823          .843          .823          .843 
OILGAS         .808          .808          .79           .802          .732          .72 
GAMING         .777          .888          .888          .888          .777          .666 
NIFTY          .771          .742          .742          .742          .685          .714 
RUS-1000       .722          .703          .655          .632          .598          .587 
ELECTRON       .701          .683          .662          .623          .593          .571 
SP500          .693          .685          .626          .608          .574          .567 
SP-100         .69           .69           .659          .628          .628          .618 
GREEN          .677          .709          .516          .548          .483          .548 
SEMI           .656          .619          .589          .522          .485          .492 
REIT           .654          .614          .532          .467          .416          .375 
INDEXES        .642          .642          .613          .592          .546          .525 
DOWJONES       .633          .666          .6            .566          .6            .6 
NASD-100       .617          .617          .585          .574          .531          .531 
COMPUTER       .615          .615          .538          .5            .576          .538 
COMODITY       .577          .605          .605          .605          .563          .549 
SOFTWARE       .545          .515          .469          .409          .348          .333 
PIPELINE       .444          .444          .444          .555          .555          .444 
ETFS           .441          .411          .25           .176          .132          .147 
HACKERS        .428          .38           .333          .285          .285          .285 
BIOTECH        .402          .361          .408          .371          .331          .324 
SOLAR          .375          .437          .25           .125          .125          .125 
UTILITY        .347          .304          .26           .26           .239          .173 
FOOD           .333          .4            .4            .4            .266          .2 
CHINA          .302          .328          .197          .236          .223          .263 
GOLD           .267          .267          .25           .267          .232          .196 
BEVERAGE       .238          .238          .19           .19           .142          .142 
BONDFUND       .018          .018          .009          .009          0             0 
HOSPITAL       0             0             .25           .25           .25           .25 

 

 



========================================================
                    12-7-2016   The Trump Rally Should Continue.

                    
I take the operative Peerless Signal to be the new Buy B4.  This is a sharp-reversal-up
                               Buy signal.  It occurs when the DJI'a OBVPct turns quickly around from -.25 to a +.25.  It
                               reverses the S9/S12 belatedly, to be sure.  But this new B4 is reliable and sometimes
                               very powerful.  See  http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.h
tm



                             
 The Buy B4 signal more than anything else, is a sudden turn-around signal.  Trump was
                               not expected to win!  Now we will see big changes which Wall Street and big corporations
                               really like.  There is no pretense.  Deregulation of banks and energy companies are
                               certainties.  Wall Street through Goldman Sachs graduates will continue to be in charge
                               of the Treasury, just as they have been since 1981.  The Big Banks will be
                               continue to be protected. And now, most important, taxes on big corporations and the
                               wealthy will be dropped sharply.  Unlike when Reagan and Eisenhower were Presidents,
                               Republicans now control Congress.  This was not widely expected.  Technically, these
                               new developments are what the market is seeking to reflect and what has brought
                               about our new  Buy B4.
                              

                                         FAS is running in all-time high territory.
                                         Its performance will certainly attract speculators
                                         and performance-minded fund managers.  Hold it
                                         long while its 5-day ma rises.  The pivot-point is
                                         3.58 below its current price.  So, it cannot easily
                                         turn down now.  Expect higher prices.  GS is still
                                         15-20 points below its all-time high.  I would think
                                         it will go well past 250-260.



                               I think this new type of Buy B4, coming off three months of steady (red) institutional selling
                               is particularly bullish.
  You may recall the earlier study that I reported before the Election
                               which showed that a long  period of red OBVPct numbers should be considered reversed
                               if the OBVPct turning quickly positive and rises simply above +.10.  Here we have an OBVPct
                               which has now risen above +.60.   See in the example below how the OBVPct suddenly reversed
                               at the end of 1994 from its red negativity and turned positive.  This started the wonderful
                               Bull Market of 1995-2000.

            1994-1995:  Sudden Reversal: Red Selling gave way to positive OBVPct.
                                A magnificent Bull Market then followed.
                                       



                                           A Pullback to the DJI's 21-day ma would normally
                                           make a good spot to buy.  But predicting how soon
                                           it will occur is difficult.  The DJI's 21-day ma is now
                                           rising at an annualized rate of 81.1% a year, so any
                                           decline to it should be used to buy.  With it
                                           running in all-time high territory, the path of least
                                           resistance is UP.




                                           Just as 10,000 acted as a magnet for the DJI in Aptil 1999,
                                           expect 20,000's round number to invite the same
                                           type of public excitement now.  See how that round-number magnet
                                           overcame the bearishness of a very weak NYSE A/D Line.


                                     

 

                               So, we may, or we may not, see a brief pull-back to the DJI's 21-day ma. 

                               That is what happened in all the earlier Buy B4s.   But I would not look for much
                               of a retreat in the DJIA or DIA until DIA's up-trending Closing Power trend is broken or
                               prices drop below its 5-day moving average pivot-point.  See the chart below.

                               Some selling is apt to occur if the Fed raises rates to try to control what "hawks" there
                               will say is excessive market euphoria.  But I'm not so sure the Fed will act  now.  The Job
                               Numbers were not so great.  Bonds were up today, too.  And even if they do raise rates,
                               I doubt if it will drop the DJI much below its now steeply rising 21-day ma.  

                              Watch tomorrow to see if the  NASDAQ, SOXL and TECL can make new highs. 
                              A broader advance would mean we are observing new money come into the market now
                              and not just seeing a grand reordering of investment priorities occasioned by Trump's
                              appointments and recent statements on cutting taxes and reducing regulations on business.


                                                                    
                                                                       Updated Charts 
                                                                           


                           
12/7/16:    
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                 
12/7/2016:  
     Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                          Bearish MINCPs
 (Bond Funds are rising a little and have disappeared
                                                          from this group.  The most bearish plays here now are short ETFs
                                                          on the general marlet and financials.)

                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, CATFB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       
                
                     
 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
  

 
               12/7/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          .888          .888          .888          .888          .888 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
JETS           100%          .833          1             1             .833          1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
AUTO           .9            .85           .8            .75           .75           .725 
GAMING         .888          .888          .888          .777          .666          .666 
HOMEBLDG       .888          .777          .666          .555          .5            .555 
FINANCE        .879          .835          .835          .824          .835          .813 
MILITARY       .862          .823          .843          .823          .843          .843 
CHEM           .853          .743          .743          .719          .719          .707 
INSURANC       .852          .823          .794          .794          .794          .823 
INDMATER       .841          .811          .801          .782          .772          .782 
RETAIL         .814          .722          .703          .666          .666          .703 
OILGAS         .812          .795          .807          .736          .73           .701 
NIFTY          .742          .742          .742          .685          .714          .714 
GREEN          .709          .516          .548          .483          .548          .548 
RUS-1000       .703          .655          .632          .598          .585          .618 
SP-100         .69           .659          .628          .628          .608          .608 
SP500          .685          .626          .608          .574          .563          .58 
ELECTRON       .683          .662          .623          .593          .567          .67 
DOWJONES       .666          .6            .566          .6            .6            .566 
  
INDEXES        .642          .613          .592          .546          .525          .592 
SEMI           .622          .592          .525          .488          .496          .614 
NASD-100       .617          .585          .574          .531          .521          .595 
COMPUTER       .615          .538          .5            .576          .538          .576 
REIT           .612          .53           .464          .413          .367          .433 
COMODITY       .605          .605          .605          .563          .549          .563 
SOFTWARE       .522          .477          .417          .358          .343          .522 
PIPELINE       .444          .444          .555          .555          .444          .666 
SOLAR          .437          .25           .125          .125          .125          .25 
ETFS           .411          .25           .176          .132          .147          .147 
FOOD           .4            .4            .4            .266          .2            .333 
HACKERS        .38           .333          .285          .285          .285          .428 
BIOTECH        .362          .41           .372          .332          .322          .379 
CHINA          .328          .197          .236          .223          .263          .368 
UTILITY        .304          .26           .26           .239          .173          .173 
GOLD           .267          .25           .267          .232          .196          .214 
BEVERAGE       .238          .19           .19           .142          .142          .19 
BONDFUND       .018          .009          .009          0             0             0 
HOSPITAL       0             .25           .25           .25           .25           .25 

.

==================================================================

 12-6-2016  The Trump Turn-around Rally Continues.

    
The market strength we are seeing invites us to reconsider the Peerless S9/S12.   What I have
         found is that when the DJI's OBVPCT quickly turns from below a -.25 level to above  +.25,
         we should consider a new Buy B4 rendered when the following conditions are true.:

                1) The DJI is more than 1% above a rising 65-dma.
                2) The DJI is not more than 2.7% above its 21-dma.
                3) There is no simultaneous Peerless Sell.
                4)  The current Accum. Index (IP21) is above +.07.

          As a result, I now consider Peerless to be operating under this new Buy B4.
          See the earlier new Buy B4 cases:                              
                         
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.h
tm



                             
Often when a Republican wins the White House, the stock market rallies throughout most
                              of December and does not reach a peak until the following January or February.  I think that is
                              what we are seeing now. 

                              Coolidge's victory in 1924 overcame a divided Republican Party and promised a very pro-business
                              government for four more years.  Tax cuts, Deregulation, the promotion of business by Government
                              and new tariffs were all promised and delivered on.  The Fed's easy money policy also played a big role
                              in encouraging a new age of installment buying.  The DJI did retreat much until March 6, 1925.

                                                              DJI - 1924 and 1925




                              Eisenhower's victory stirred a partisan rally that did not stop until January 5th of 1953.



                              The coming of Reagan to the Presidency in January 1981 was more important
                              for Wall Street than the Fed's sky-high interest rates until April 1981.
                              Only after no less than five sets of major Sells, did the DJI finally
                              begin a bear market.  Make no mistake about it.  The stock market
                              was anticipating tax cuts, deregulation and a very pro-business Administration,
                              very much as it looks forward to all that Trump can do to create more
                              profits and growth.



                              Bush Sr.'s victory in November 1988 brought a strong advance into 1989.


                        

                    
I strongly suggest using the QuickSilver rules for trading ETFs now.  So long as an ETF has both
                               Opening and Closing Power rising (above their 21-day ma), an IP21 reading above +.15, volume is rising
                               and they are above resistance or at support, buy or continue to hold them.
                               (
See QuickSilver Documentation - 1/11/2016  )

                               It also does not take a rocket scientist now to see how exceptionally strong Big Bank and Regional Bank
                               stocks are.  GS is on track to hit its all-time high of 250.  FAS is a QuickSilver Buy still.


                              
                              Deregulation and lower taxes plus a strong Dollar are exactly what they need to advance.
                               Look back at how rapidly regional Bank Stocks rose soon after Bill Clinton appointed Robert
                               Rubin from Goldman Sachs to be his Treasury Secretary and followed the banker way down the
                               path of de-regulation of Banks.  I wrote about this in the new Explosive Super Stocks book
                               and used the example of ZION, a Utah bank.

                    

                                                    

                                                        
 

 
              12/6/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
COAL           .888          .888          .888          .888          .888          1 
GAMING         .888          .888          .777          .666          .666          .888 
AUTO           .85           .8            .75           .75           .725          .7 
FINANCE        .835          .835          .824          .835          .813          .835 
JETS           .833          1             1             .833          .916          .916 
INSURANC       .823          .794          .794          .794          .823          .882 
MILITARY       .823          .843          .823          .843          .843          .803 
INDMATER       .811          .801          .782          .772          .772          .782 
OILGAS         .795          .807          .736          .73           .701          .444 
HOMEBLDG       .777          .666          .555          .5            .555          .666 
CHEM           .743          .743          .719          .719          .707          .743 
NIFTY          .742          .742          .685          .714          .714          .714 
RETAIL         .722          .703          .666          .666          .685          .796 
ELECTRON       .662          .623          .593          .567          .67           .688 
SP-100         .659          .628          .628          .608          .618          .628 
RUS-1000       .654          .631          .597          .585          .617          .636 
SP500          .626          .608          .574          .563          .58           .604 
INDEXES        .613          .592          .546          .525          .588          .63 
COMODITY       .605          .605          .563          .549          .563          .408 
DOWJONES       .6            .566          .6            .6            .566          .633 
SEMI           .592          .525          .488          .496          .614          .637 
NASD-100       .585          .574          .531          .521          .595          .648 
COMPUTER       .538          .5            .576          .538          .576          .538 
REIT           .527          .461          .411          .365          .426          .532 
GREEN          .516          .548          .483          .548          .548          .548 
SOFTWARE       .477          .417          .358          .343          .522          .552 
PIPELINE       .444          .555          .555          .444          .666          .333 
BIOTECH        .408          .371          .331          .32           .375          .439 
FOOD           .4            .4            .266          .2            .333          .333 
HACKERS        .333          .285          .285          .285          .428          .523 
UTILITY        .26           .26           .239          .173          .173          .456 
ETFS           .25           .176          .132          .147          .147          .132 
GOLD           .25           .267          .232          .196          .214          .214 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .25           .25           .375 
SOLAR          .25           .125          .125          .125          .25           .25 
CHINA          .207          .246          .233          .272          .363          .324 
BEVERAGE       .19           .19           .142          .142          .19           .238 
BONDFUND       .009          .009          0             0             0             0 



     
=================================================================
                    12-5-2016   
Newly Created B4 based on OPCT (OBVPct)
                                                 would put us back on a Buy. 

                         December is very Bullish.  So are Tax Cuts and De-Regulation. 
                         The Partisan Rally Should Continue.  Buy the New Winners under Trump
                         and Remain Short Bonds.


                   
 Tonight I looked back over all the Peerless DJI charts back to 1929 to see what happens
                               when Tiger's OBVPct swings swiftly back from below -.25 to above +.25 in two months,
                               as has happened in the last two months.

                              What I found was that as long as the 65-dma was rising, that there was no simultaneous Peerless
                               Sell, that the DJI was not more than 3% over the 21-day ma and that this did not occur in
                               the last two weeks of December, we have a very reliable Buy signal.  Seldom does the new B4
                               reverse a Peerless Sell, but when it does, it is worth acting on and trusting.  I have not coded
                               these parameters yet.  So, we will have to wait until tomorrow night to see all the cases.  I want
                               to put special attention on the new B4s which occurred in bull markets and those that
                               would have reversed a Peerless Buy. 

                               This new Buy B4 would have occurred several days ago.  See the DJI chart giving this signal below.
                                It's true the A/D Line is lagging.  But Trump's new paradigm seems centered on inequality.  So why
                                shouldn't his favorites go to an extreme?  There is a natural tendency anyway for booms and exuberances
                                when regulation is limited.  What's more?  All the performance based funds at this time of year have
                                no choice but to buy more and more of their winners if they want big year-end bonuses.  .



          
                   


 
                             Back in early November, I mentioned that if the DJI's OBV-PCT  crossed back above +.11,
                               we would have to consider the Summer's S18 voided.  Then the Trump-Partisan rally took
                               the DJI up so fast that Peerless gave a Sell S9/S12.  I said that we should buy IWM and
                               the very bullish looking regional banks and not short DIA and SPY because their
                               Closing Powers were rising, thus showing that Professionals were still bullish.  The reason,
                               of course, was that a new Trump and a Republican Congress would likely cut corporate
                               and high income taxes dramatically and reduce regulations, too.  This still seems a sure thing,
                               so I would continue to buy the MAXCP financials and GS, too, until reaches its all-time
                               high around 250.

                               The previously very strong High Tech leaders are more problematic.  Trump is challenging
                               China and talking about penalties on companies that export jobs.  These policies would really
                               hurt some of the biggest NASDAQ companies if a trade war developed.  But can Trump
                               change his mind?  Most pundits think that he has and will.  He is not crazy, they say.

                               Tonight's New York Times reports that Congressional Republicans have served notice to Trump
                               that they would not support tariffs and other protectionist policies that might lead to
                               a trade war.   Professionals knew something like this was occurring.  Today, the NASDAQ rallied
                               strongly up from its rising 65-dma instead of breaking down, possibly then falling to a low below
                               the October low.  

                               NY Times article:  Click on title below...                                     

House G.O.P. Signals Break With Trump Over Tariff Threat

By JENNIFER STEINHAUER   President-elect Trump has suggested a heavy tax on companies that move jobs overseas, but Republican leaders pushed back, saying they don't want a trade war.



                               Technically, I would still consider a break in the NASDAQ's 65-dma as bearish enough to
                               short it as well as TECL if its Closing Power and 5-day ma are filling.

                               Since Trump's victory, I have said that the rearrangement of portfolio priorities, the selling
                               of municipal bonds, utilities and REIT and the buying of Financials and Infrastructure stocks
                               were more important than worrying about the Peerless Sell S9/S12.  I suspect this will continue to be
                               true.  Trump's victory was unexpected and it takes a long time for the market to factor in
                               the new Trump priorities and their consequences.  I said that I would not be surprised if
                               the market as measured by the DJI with GS, JPM, CAT and CVX powering it, reached
                               and breached 20,000 as Trump has his coronation.  What better way to draw in all
                               the over-exuberant Public money before making a top?  Moreover, with lower taxes expected
                               for next year, there is also a natural tendency not to take profits until next year. And
                               as I mentioned last night, the second half of December usually out-performs the first half.
 

                              

                               I continue to think that we should abide by the direction of the different ETFs' 5-day
                               ma and Closing Power, but always reckon where the likely support and resistance are.

                     

                                    
Updates Links to Charts 
                                           
                            Links will be to current charts tomorrow.  No more time tonight.                                                


                           
12/2/16:    
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                 
12/5/2016:  
     Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                          Bearish MINCPs
 (still many Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       
                
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

               12/5/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             1             1             .875 
JETS           100%          1             .833          .916          .916          .75 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
COAL           .888          .888          .888          .888          1             1 
GAMING         .888          .777          .666          .666          .888          .888 
MILITARY       .843          .823          .843          .843          .823          .862 
FINANCE        .835          .824          .835          .813          .846          .802 
OILGAS         .807          .736          .73           .701          .444          .543 
INDMATER       .801          .782          .772          .772          .772          .792 
AUTO           .8            .75           .75           .725          .7            .725 
INSURANC       .794          .794          .794          .823          .882          .852 
CHEM           .743          .719          .719          .707          .731          .731 
NIFTY          .742          .685          .714          .714          .714          .742 
RETAIL         .703          .666          .666          .685          .796          .796 
HOMEBLDG       .666          .555          .5            .555          .666          .666 
RUS-1000       .631          .597          .585          .617          .635          .648 
SP-100         .628          .628          .608          .618          .628          .67 
ELECTRON       .621          .591          .565          .669          .691          .682 
SP500          .608          .574          .563          .58           .602          .622 
COMODITY       .605          .563          .549          .563          .408          .535 
INDEXES        .589          .543          .523          .585          .627          .623 
NASD-100       .574          .531          .521          .595          .648          .638 
DOWJONES       .566          .6            .6            .566          .633          .633 
PIPELINE       .555          .555          .444          .666          .333          .222 
GREEN          .548          .483          .548          .548          .548          .645 
SEMI           .522          .485          .492          .611          .641          .634 
COMPUTER       .5            .576          .538          .576          .538          .576 
REIT           .461          .411          .365          .426          .522          .451 
SOFTWARE       .417          .358          .343          .522          .552          .567 
FOOD           .4            .266          .2            .333          .333          .466 
BIOTECH        .37           .329          .319          .373          .434          .41 
HACKERS        .285          .285          .285          .428          .523          .476 
GOLD           .267          .232          .196          .214          .214          .214 
UTILITY        .26           .239          .173          .173          .434          .456 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .25           .25           .375          .25 
CHINA          .246          .233          .272          .363          .337          .298 
BEVERAGE       .19           .142          .142          .19           .238          .238 
ETFS           .176          .132          .147          .147          .132          .147 
SOLAR          .125          .125          .125          .25           .25           .25 
BONDFUND       .009          0             0             0             0             0 

=========================================================== 
                   12-2-2016  See    
www.tigersoft.com/345HLN12/INDEX.html  
    
=========================================================== 
                   12-1-2016    

                   
Tomorrow morning we get the official Jobs numbers.   I would think that a
                              November figure over 200,000 will all but guarantee that the FED will
                              raise interest rates in December.  By down-trending steeply since the
                              Summer, it is apparent that Bonds, Utilities and Gold are anticipating this. 
 

 
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 186 144 24 271 252 176 191(P) 161(P)    

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

 

 

                            Trump Wants Wall Street To Boom
                             and He Believes That Goldman Sachs
                             Will Make That Happen.
                                  
                   
But the real news is, of course, what the new Trump Administration can do
                              for Wall Street by reducing taxes on corporations, on capital gains, on wealthy
                              individuals and estates.  Lower taxes have been declared  to be the highest
                              priority for the Republican Congress.  Dropping the official tax on corporations
                              from 35% to 15% would immediately boost earnings all across the business world
                              by as much as 20%. 

                              Reducing government regulations will take longer.   But we can certainly see
                              how eagerly Bank stocks are looking forward to the World of Trump, especially
                              since his Cabinet will likely have a number of Goldman Sachs graduates on it.

                              Not surprisingly as a result, Today's DJI advance was again led by Goldman and JPM.
                              CVX also helped out today.  Without  these three components. the Dow Jones would have
                              only risen by 10.  Because  GS is by far the highest priced and most weighty stock in the DJI-30,
                              we have to watch it closely  now.  It seems headed back up to its all-time high, still 20-points away. 
                              Such a rise in isolation would lift the DJI by 150 more points.   But is too much of the
                              heavy-lifting now being done by too few stocks?
 


                   
              
                        
                                     No Reversing Buy Signal Yet

                   
The Peerless S9/S12 has not been reversed.  The paper loss on the DJIA from the
                              clinched S9/S12 is not outside the range that we have seen before from this signal.
                              It is presently 384 points or about 2%.  In fact, eight of the earlier 24 Peerless
                              Sell S9/S12s suffered paper losses between 2% and 4.3%, the biggest pager loss.
                              5 of these 8 still worked out profitably when reversed on the next Peerless
                              Buy signal.  In the three cases where a loss ensued, a Buy B4 appeared which
                              limited further loss.  The Buy B4 was always profitable in its own right.  Unfortunately,
                              we are not likely to get a Buy B4 unless there is a broad surge in the market.

                              Today's market was ugly.  Even though the DJI was up more than 90 in early
                              trading today, at the close there were 726 more down than up on the NYSE.
                              The DJI has reached its over-head resistance and the NYSE A/D Line's uptrend
                              was today slightly violated.

                              The NASDAQ lost 73 points (-1.36%) today.  Big daily losses were recorded
                              by SOXL (14.8% - semi-conductors) and TECL (6.2% - technology). The
                              NASDAQ's broadening top, a megaphone pattern, looks quite bearish, especially
                              if tomorrow it slices down through its 65-dma, which it closed at today.  Bearish
                              also is its weakened/negative relative strength versus the DJI, its lagging OBV
                              and the break in its Closing Power uptrend following a non-confirmation.  See the
                              COMPQX (NASDAQ chart) below using the INDEX data on the Tiger Data Page.





                           



                                        
                                           Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 12/1/16:  Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                                        Bearish MINCPs
 (many Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       
 


                                          Below are the 8 cases where there was a paper loss on a Peerless S9/S12.

                                                               
  DJIA                  % Gain             Biggest
                                                                                                                                 on                Paper
                                                                                                                               Short             Loss
                                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     19290426      S9             314.2         .066     
                     19290430      S12            319.3         .081        2.2%  
                     19290614      S9             313.7        -.047    
                     19290617      S12            319.3        -.029        2.9% 

                     19340821      S9             92.6          .036         
                     19340821      S12            92.6          .036        3.1%              
                     19340927      S9             93.4         -.02    
                     19341005      S12            92.9         -.026        2.6% 
                     19590701      S9             650.2         .019 
                     19590701      S12            650.2         .019        4.3%
                     19710826      S9             906.1         .088 
                     19710831      S12            898.07        .08         3.7% 
                     19720803      S9             947.7         .027 
                     19720804      S12            951.76        .032        2.3%
                     19870608      S12            2351.64      -.04 
                     19870609      S9             2352.7       -.039        3.9%
  
                     Looking at the charts of three cases where short sales on DIA would have been
                     reversed at a loss, we see that in all 3 cases a Buy B4 was the agent of change.
                     In addition, on the day of the Buy B4, the annualized rate of change the 21-day 
                     ma was above 1.10. It is only .71 now.  And in all three cases, the DJI was more
                     than 4% over the 21-day ma.  Here it is only 2.3% over the 21-dma. 
                                  
       
                          
 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              12/1/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             1             .875          .875          .875 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .952          .904 
COAL           .888          .888          1             1             1             1 
MILITARY       .843          .843          .823          .862          .843          .823 
FINANCE        .835          .813          .846          .802          .846          .835 
JETS           .833          .916          .916          .75           .833          .833 
INSURANC       .794          .823          .882          .852          .882          .852 
INDMATER       .774          .774          .774          .794          .794          .794 
AUTO           .75           .725          .7            .725          .75           .725 
OILGAS         .73           .701          .444          .543          .619          .649 
CHEM           .719          .707          .731          .731          .731          .743 
NIFTY          .714          .714          .714          .714          .771          .771 
GAMING         .666          .666          .888          .888          1             1 
RETAIL         .666          .685          .796          .759          .814          .814 
SP-100         .608          .618          .628          .659          .69           .639 
DOWJONES       .6            .566          .633          .633          .7            .633 
RUS-1000       .585          .618          .636          .645          .674          .648 
ELECTRON       .569          .673          .695          .686          .704          .726 
SP500          .563          .58           .602          .616          .651          .622 
COMPUTER       .555          .592          .555          .592          .592          .555 
COMODITY       .549          .563          .408          .535          .492          .521 
GREEN          .548          .548          .548          .645          .612          .612 
INDEXES        .523          .585          .627          .627          .652          .623 
NASD-100       .521          .595          .648          .617          .68           .627 
HOMEBLDG       .5            .555          .666          .666          .666          .666 
SEMI           .496          .614          .644          .629          .659          .696 
PIPELINE       .444          .666          .333          .222          .444          .555 
REIT           .365          .426          .522          .451          .436          .401 
SOFTWARE       .343          .522          .552          .567          .582          .582 
BIOTECH        .319          .373          .434          .407          .494          .478 
HACKERS        .285          .428          .523          .476          .476          .476 
CHINA          .272          .363          .337          .298          .324          .311 
HOSPITAL       .25           .25           .375          .25           .375          .375 
GOLD           .21           .228          .228          .228          .192          .192 
FOOD           .2            .333          .333          .466          .533          .466 
UTILITY        .173          .173          .434          .456          .347          .152 
ETFS           .147          .147          .132          .147          .132          .147 
BEVERAGE       .142          .19           .238          .238          .19           .19 
SOLAR          .125          .25           .25           .25           .25           .25 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 

                                     
=============================================================
                   11-30-2016

                            
The Peerless S9/S12 has not been reversed.  The paper loss from the
                                            clinched S9/S12 is not outside the range that we have seen before from this
                                            signal.   (More on this tomorrow night.)  A short-term decline now seems highly
                                            likely.  Watch tomorrow to see if the NYSE A/D Line breaks its recent uptrend.
                                            This would be bearish given the recent failure of the A/D Line to match the DJI in
                                            making a new high.  Expect the DJI to find support, if there is a decline, at its
                                            rising 21-dma, at 18600-18700.   


                            
Trump has given us a rousing partisan rally this Presidential Election season.
                                            History told us to expect such a rally.  Exuberant partisan buying is normal in
                                            Presidential Election year Novembers.

                                            Wall Street loves his billionaire Cabinet appointments.  The fears that he might
                                            actually be a Main Street populist have completely evaporated.  This has sent
                                            big bank stocks like Goldman soaring.  As by far the highest priced individual DJI
                                            stock, GS has single-handedly boosted the DJI by 425 points in the last two months.
                                            (62/.146).  Its all-time high beckons.  So, it could rise another 30 points, which would
                                            boost the DJI by 200 more points. 

                                            Cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations are the Administration's and Congress'
                                            number#1 priority.  Such tax cuts have always been very bullish.
 (More on this tomorrow.)
                                            Just the expectation of lower taxes will get many to defer their selling and taking profits
                                            until after the tax cut becomes law. 

                                            And December is the most bullish month of the year.  Since 1965, the DJI has achieved
                                            a gain over the next 20 trading days of December 75.5% of the time, the rise averaging
                                            2.2%. 

                                             So, why do we have a number of bearish technical readings now?  The Fed's determination
                                             now to raise rates to prevent a brand new stock market bubble?  Misgivings about
                                             Trump's personality disorders which his political foes will surely try to exploit and
                                             aggravate?  Simple profit-taking?  An overseas backlash from  allies and trading partners
                                             against Trump's new economic nationalism?  Take your pick.  Whatever it turns out to be,
                                             the technical deterioration shown below warns us that something negative is approaching
                                             the market.  Simple profit-taking seems warranted now or soon.  December is too
                                             bullish a month to bring a really big DJI drop, one that goes below the lower band.

                                            
The thing to know now is that there are a number of technical warning signs.  Here are
                                             ones that I consider most important.  The first four relate to the DJI itself.

                                             1) As I showed last night, there has not been a DJI take-off following a 7% jump in prices
                                             in November in 61 years.   Of course, it can be argued that the Eisenhower take-off of 1955 was
                                             a direct result of his launching a big infrastructure program to build interstate highways.
                                             Trump tells us he will propose something equally grand and important.                                                

                                                                What Happens To DJI after 7% Advances in November?

                                                                 Date         Outcome
                                                                 --------------    ------------
                                                                 11/19/1954   
bullish take-off
                                                                 11/20/1980   
sharp sell-off a little below lower band.
                                                                 11/22/1996   
DJI went sidewise.
                                                                 11/1/2000     
DJI fell to lower band.
                                                                 11/11/2005   
Wild swings both ways.
                                                                 11/4/2014     
Wild swings both ways.

                                               2) The DJI's Hourly DJI chart is now showing a widening and bearish divergence
                                               between prices and its OBV Line.  See below how the Hourly OBV Line has also
                                               just broken its uptrend.  If the Hourly OBV/DISI Line starts to make two month
                                               lows ahead of price, it will start to look a lot it did before the August 2015 and January
                                               2016 intermediate-term DJI corrections of 13%-14%.


                                            
                                        3) Our short-term NET IDOSC for the DJIA-30 shows nearly the same degree of
                                        bearish divergence from prices that was seen at this Summer's top.


                           
                        
 4) DIA's Closing Power steep uptrend  been broken and it will only
                                      take a DIA decline of .82 or more to cause its 5-day ma to turn down.



                                       5) The Closing Powers for IWM, QQQ and SPY are in minor down-trends now.
                                       The 5-day moving averages for IWM, SPY and QQQ are falling.  A pull-back
                                       is very likely for them, especially as they have each and are now retreating from
                                       their resistance-lines.





                                       6) The NASDAQ shows a bearish broadening top, or megaphone pattern.
                                       This is associated with a dangerously speculative and out-of-control market.
                                       Selling short at the 5th point shown on the chart is a standard technical
                                       strategy.  



                                              
Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/30/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (many financials & regional banks)                                                                           
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (many Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       

         RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
         11/30/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%          1             .875          .875          .875          .875 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
JETS           .916          .916          .75           .833          .833          .833 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .952          .904          .904 
COAL           .888          1             1             1             1             1 
MILITARY       .843          .823          .862          .843          .823          .784 
INSURANC       .823          .882          .852          .882          .823          .823 
FINANCE        .813          .846          .802          .846          .835          .813 
INDMATER       .774          .774          .794          .794          .794          .784 
AUTO           .725          .7            .725          .75           .725          .675 
CHEM           .716          .74           .74           .74           .753          .716 
NIFTY          .714          .714          .714          .771          .742          .714 
OILGAS         .697          .441          .54           .616          .639          .668 
RETAIL         .685          .796          .759          .814          .796          .814 
ELECTRON       .67           .692          .683          .701          .722          .692 
GAMING         .666          .888          .888          1             1             .888 
PIPELINE       .666          .333          .222          .444          .555          .555 

RUS-1000       .618          .636          .645          .674          .645          .631 
SP-100         .618          .628          .659          .69           .628          .628 
SEMI           .614          .644          .629          .659          .696          .681 
NASD-100       .595          .648          .617          .68           .617          .638 
COMPUTER       .592          .555          .592          .592          .555          .555 
INDEXES        .585          .627          .627          .652          .623          .61 
SP500          .58           .602          .616          .651          .616          .604 
DOWJONES       .566          .633          .633          .7            .6            .533 
COMODITY       .557          .414          .528          .5            .528          .542 
HOMEBLDG       .555          .666          .666          .666          .666          .666 
GREEN          .548          .548          .645          .612          .612          .58 
SOFTWARE       .522          .552          .567          .582          .582          .626 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HACKERS        .428          .523          .476          .476          .476          .523 
REIT           .426          .522          .451          .436          .401          .416 
BIOTECH        .375          .435          .408          .493          .469          .425 
CHINA          .371          .346          .307          .333          .32           .294 

FOOD           .333          .333          .466          .533          .466          .666 
HOSPITAL       .25           .375          .25           .375          .375          .125 
SOLAR          .25           .25           .25           .25           .25           .25 
GOLD           .228          .228          .228          .192          .192          .21 
BEVERAGE       .19           .238          .238          .19           .19           .19 
UTILITY        .173          .434          .456          .347          .152          .26 
ETFS           .147          .132          .147          .132          .147          .147 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 


===========================================================

             11-29-2016     
       
              
 November rises in the DJI by  more than 7% like we have just seen
                        have been more bearish historically than bullish.  This surprising statistic
                        must concern us here, especially since the Peerless Sell S9/S12 signals have
                        not been reversed.  A quick bout of profit-taking, perhaps when the FED raises
                        rates,  would seem to be likely soon.  Typically, we then will see a Santa
                        Claus Buy B13 after December 26th.  If there is a decline, I would not think
                        the DJI will drop much below the rising 21-day ma because of December's bullish
                        seasonality and because the big Trump tax cuts give big investors reason to hold
                        of serious profit-taking until next year.  The key ETFs Closing Powers did
                        weaken a little today.  Now the bears will need to see the recent NYSE A/D Line
                        break its uptrend.

                                                What Happens To DJI after 7% Advances in November?

                                                                 Date         Outcome
                                                                 --------------    ------------
                                                                 11/19/1954   
bullish take-off
                                                                 11/20/1980   
sharp sell-off a little below lower band.
                                                                 11/22/1996   
DJI went sidewise.
                                                                 11/1/2000     
DJI fell to lower band.
                                                                 11/11/2005   
Wild swings both ways.
                                                                 11/4/2014     
Wild swings both ways.
                                                                           (See charts below.)

                                      
Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/29/16:    Bullish MAXCPs                                                                             
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (many Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
       

   
CASES WHERE DJI ROSE 7% in 14 TRADING DAYS:
                                        1945-2016
 
 

                   See list of cases...
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       88 earlier cases:  38 occurred in Bear Markets.  We will leave these out of our consideration here.
       50  Bold = Bull Market Cases
       24          Blue = DJI subsequent take-offs           48%
      
19          Red = DJI fell to lower band or lower   38%
       4        
  Maroon = DJI went primarily sidewise  8%
      
3           Pink = Wild Swings Up and then down sharply  6%

     
 Since 2000  23 cases
       13          Bull Market Cases
       5            DJI take-offs upwards    38.5%
      
3            DJI fell to lower band or lower    23.1%
      
1            DJI went primarily sidewise.    7.7%
       4            Wild Swings Up and then down sharply  30.8%

     
November Cases

     
11/19/1954                  1.03          99             .07
     
11/20/ 1980                 1.04         -19           -.01
    
 11/22/1996                  1.04          232           .16
      11/1/2000                    1.04         -200           .03

      11/11/2004                  1.03          476           .06
      11/4/2014                    1.03          265           .07
     
11/25/2016                 1.03          115           .08   Undecided...                    
 

    11/19/1954
    11/20/ 1980
    11/22/1996
    11/1/2000
    11/11/2004
    11/4/2014 



  

           RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

              11/29/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%           1             1             1             1             1 
EDU            100%           .875          .875          .875          .875          .875 
REGBANKS       100%           1             1             1             1             1 
JETS           .916          .75           .833          .833          .833          .833 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .952          .904          .904          .904 
GAMING         .888          .888          1             1             .888          .888 
INSURANC       .882          .852          .882          .823          .794          .823 
FINANCE        .846          .802          .846          .835          .813          .824 
MILITARY       .823          .862          .843          .823          .784          .725 
RETAIL         .796          .759          .814          .796          .814          .74 
INDMATER       .774          .794          .794          .794          .784          .784 
CHEM           .74           .74           .74           .753          .716          .703 
NIFTY          .714          .714          .771          .742          .714          .742 
AUTO           .7            .725          .75           .725          .675          .6 
ELECTRON       .692          .683          .701          .722          .688          .67 
HOMEBLDG       .666          .666          .666          .666          .666          .555
 
NASD-100       .648          .617          .68           .617          .648          .617 
SEMI           .644          .629          .659          .696          .674          .651 
RUS-1000       .636          .645          .674          .645          .631          .62 
DOWJONES       .633          .633          .7            .6            .566          .566 
SP-100         .628          .659          .69           .628          .639          .608 
INDEXES        .627          .627          .652          .623          .61           .602 
SP500          .602          .616          .651          .616          .606          .596 
COMPUTER       .555          .592          .592          .555          .592          .592 
SOFTWARE       .552          .567          .582          .582          .626          .626 
GREEN          .548          .645          .612          .612          .58           .483 
HACKERS        .523          .476          .476          .476          .523          .571 
REIT           .522          .451          .436          .401          .406          .314 
OILGAS         .441          .54           .616          .639          .668          .656 
BIOTECH        .437          .41           .494          .471          .424          .481 
UTILITY        .434          .456          .347          .152          .26           .173 
COMODITY       .414          .528          .5            .528          .528          .6 
HOSPITAL       .375          .25           .375          .375          .125          .375 
CHINA          .346          .307          .333          .32           .294          .294 

FOOD           .333          .466          .533          .466          .6            .6 
PIPELINE       .333          .222          .444          .555          .555          .555 
SOLAR          .25           .25           .25           .25           .25           .187 
BEVERAGE       .238          .238          .19           .19           .19           .19 
GOLD           .228          .228          .192          .192          .21           .192 
ETFS           .132          .147          .132          .147          .147          .132 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 



=========================================================

              11-28-2016  

                     
The Peerless Sell S9/S12 Will Not Easily Go Away.  No new Peerless Buy Signals
                                 are in sight.  Take long profits  in IWM and the Bullish Bank Stocks.  There are just
                                 too many glaring contradictions between the DJI's strength and nearly all of our technical
                                 indicators.  The same is true for the Hourly DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ.  Prices have
                                 reached a very over-bought status and most internal strength measures are still
                                 lagging badly.



                     
I don't like how abruptly the rally stopped now that Thanksgiving's bullishness is
                                 past.  I don't like the multiple non-confirmations (breadth and volume) wherein the
                                 A/D Line and the OBV Lines still have not made their own new highs like the DJI has.
                                 I don't like the breaks in all the steep Closing Power uptrends.  See this in
                                 blown-up graphs for the last month of so: DIA, SPY, MDY, IWM...


                                 I don't like my discovery tonight that November run-ups by 7% in 14 trading days
                                 have only been associated with one market take-off in the 6 instances of such big
                                 advances since 1945.  I don't like how each of the major market ETFs pulled back
                                 today from resistance-lines.  I don't like that SPY, FAS and QQQ could each have
                                 falling 5-day moving averages on the close tomorrow unless we get a good up-day.

                                 And, of course, I am frightened that our next President finds it so easy to fabricate
                                 any numbers he chooses.  This weekend he argued that he only reason that he lost
                                 the popular vote  nationally (by more than 2 million) was because of illegal voting
                                 and voter fraud.   He offered no evidence to support this view.   So, why must he even
                                 fuss about it?   He will be the next President. He seems to care not at all how much
                                 harm he can do to himself and to the country when talking so glibly.  Today we saw how
                                 his crazy words can rattle market confidence.  Unfortunately,  he seems less "crazy like a fox"
                                 and more just plain "crazy".  .    
                                

                                                                  DJI rose 7% or more in 14 trading days
                                                                  when the DJI was not in a bear market.

                                                                      Date         Outcome
                                                                 --------------    ------------
                                                                 11/19/1954   
bullish take-off
                                                                 11/20/1980   
sharp sell-off a little below lower band.
                                                                 11/22/1996   
DJI went sidewise.
                                                                 11/1/2000     
DJI fell to lower band.
                                                                 11/11/2005   
Wild swings both ways.
                                                                 11/4/2014     
Wild swings both ways.

                                                                 (More on this tomorrow night.) 



                     
ETF            Open.     Clos.        11/28/16       11/29/16        IP21   ITRS   Notes
                                                    Power     Power                          Pivot Point
                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 DIA            Both Up            190.78 -.52        187.34             +.27       na        turned down at rising resistance-line.
                                 SPY            Both Up            220.48 -1.04      
220.15            +.188    -.021     turned down at rising resistance-line
                                 MDY          Both Up           296.52 -2.17       294.43            +.21      +.019     turned down at rising resistance-line
                                 IWM          Both Up          132.33 -1.74         131.60           +.266    +.032.    turned down at rising resistance-line
                                 FAS             Both Up          36.20 -.98          
 36.28             +.416    +226.     turned down at rising resistance-line..
                                 QQQ            Up        
?      118.53 -.27          118.54             +.066   -.044      turned down at rising resistance-line.
                                
                                 TECL +.20 is testing its resistance up to 50. 
                                 SOXL -.48 was stopped by its steeply rising resistance line.

                                  Megaphone patterns are bearish when prices turn down from the rising resistance
                                  line.  We see that in the NASDAQ chart below.  We also see glaring failures by the
                                  OBV, NASDJI Relative Strength and Accumulation Index to match the NASDAQ's
                                  recent run to new highs.





                           
 Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/28/16:    Bullish MAXCPs
                                                                            Bullish Banks hit with profit-taking.

                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (many Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  


                                  Sector Strength: Pct of Stocks over 65-dma

                                 
18 have more than 66% above their 65-dma, a drop of only 1.
                                  
8 have lower than 33% above their 65-dma, a rise of 2 today..  
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
11/28/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .952          .904          .904          .904          .904 
GAMING         .888          1             1             .888          .888          .666 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          .875          .875 
MILITARY       .862          .843          .823          .784          .725          .745 
INSURANC       .852          .882          .823          .794          .823          .794 
FINANCE        .802          .846          .835          .813          .824          .791 
INDMATER       .794          .794          .794          .784          .774          .764 
RETAIL         .759          .814          .796          .814          .74           .74 
JETS           .75           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
CHEM           .74           .74           .753          .716          .716          .666 
AUTO           .725          .75           .725          .675          .6            .55 
NIFTY          .714          .771          .742          .714          .742          .685 
ELECTRON       .683          .701          .722          .688          .67           .662 
HOMEBLDG       .666          .666          .666          .666          .555          .444 
SP-100         .659          .69           .628          .639          .618          .577 
GREEN          .645          .612          .612          .58           .516          .451 
RUS-1000       .645          .674          .645          .631          .619          .583 
DOWJONES       .633          .7            .6            .566          .6            .5 
SEMI           .629          .659          .696          .674          .651          .629 
INDEXES        .623          .652          .623          .61           .602          .552 
NASD-100       .617          .68           .617          .648          .627          .595 
SP500          .616          .651          .616          .606          .596          .563 
COMPUTER       .592          .592          .555          .592          .629          .555 
SOFTWARE       .567          .582          .582          .626          .611          .611 
OILGAS         .54           .616          .639          .668          .656          .529 
COMODITY       .528          .5            .528          .528          .585          .4 
HACKERS        .476          .476          .476          .523          .523          .523 
FOOD           .466          .533          .466          .6            .6            .466 
UTILITY        .456          .347          .152          .26           .173          .13 
REIT           .451          .436          .401          .406          .314          .314 
BIOTECH        .412          .496          .473          .426          .479          .489 
CHINA          .307          .333          .32           .294          .294          .269 
HOSPITAL       .25           .375          .375          .125          .375          .375 
SOLAR          .25           .25           .25           .25           .187          .25 
BEVERAGE       .238          .19           .19           .19           .19           .19 
GOLD           .228          .192          .192          .21           .192          .175 
PIPELINE       .222          .444          .555          .555          .555          .555 
ETFS           .147          .132          .147          .147          .132          .073 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 



========================================================
              11-25-2016

                        
The Closing Powers continue to keep us long.  Professionals keep buying
                                      each day after the Public sells at the opening.  Until this pattern changes,
                                      continue to hold IWM long despite the Peerless S9/S12.  It is looking
                                      more and more like the S9 and S12 were the result of the unusually fast
                                      advance upwards to the upper band after Trump unexpectedly won. 
                                      Both of these Peerless signals have safe-guards against this built into them. 
                                      But they failed to deploy here.  The 1000-point one day reversal upwards
                                      on the day after the Presidential Election was our best clue, but Peerless
                                      does not directly factor in trading hours before the NYSE opening.

                                      Certainly, as long as the major ETF's Closing Powers's 5-day moving
                                      averages are rising, I would stay long IWM.   DIA, SPY, MDY and IWM
                                      are in all-time high territory where it is usually harder for bears to gain
                                      the upper hand because it is not so obvious where sell orders should be
                                      concentrated.    Price movements for the DJI and Bank/Financial Stocks
                                      have been very closely correlated for years.  The strength now in FAS should
                                      provide give Bulls a lot of confidence now.  The weakness in Gold works
                                      the same way in recerse.
                                

                                 ETF            Open.     Clos.        11/25/16       11/28/16        IP21
                                                    Power     Power                          Pivot Point
                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 DIA               Both Up         191.3 +.71          188.46           +.271     All-time high and bullish flag breakout.
                                 SPY               Both Up         221.52 +.82         218.50          +.184      megaphone pattern
                                 MDY             Both Up        298.69 +.86         292.42           +.248     megaphone pattern
                                 IWM             Both Up        134.07 +.44         130.99           +.272  ITRS = +.049.  Running in all-time high territ.
                                 FAS               Both Up        37.18 + .25          35.99             +.422  ITRS = +232.   Running in all-time high territ.
                                 QQQ            Up         
?      118.8 +.38          117.32     ITRS = -.04.  119-120 barrier is stopping its rallies.

                                                                      
Trump and Wall Street:
                                                                        A Growing Romance.

                                    


                             
                                      Far from being a danger to the stock market, as the Public was
                                      told by the mainstream media, much of Wall Street loves Trump.
                                      Now as the DJI closes in on 20,000,  Trump critics there are being
                                      forced to eat their words and start chasing stocks.

                                      This should not be a surprise.  Trump's appointments show he is
                                      no dangerous Wall Street-hating populist.  Just the opposite.  He
                                      is a billionaire and the majority of his Cabinet appointments are, too,
                                      so far.  Shades of Hoover and Coolidge, especially in view of the
                                      the coming big tax cuts and tariffs...

                                      Should we worry about the FED?   Not if Trump gets his way regarding
                                      a greatly expanded Public Works/ Infrastructure Program.  And even
                                      if rates are raised in December,  they will remain very low.   What's more? 
                                      Bond holders are selling and being pushed by events to switch to stocks.

                                                          
  Subsidence before December's Bullishness

                         
With the week of Thanksgiving behind, more players will return to the
                                      stock market.  Since 1965, there has been a tendency for the market to
                                      subside slightly over the next three trading days.  It has risen in this period
                                      only 53% of the time.  But after that, the market usually gets stronger,
                                      rising 1.3% on average over the next month and 65.3% of the time. It
                                      is this bullish end-of-the-year seasonality that prevent us from getting
                                      more Sell S9s and S12s in November. 

                                      The only S9/S12 case since 1945 was  in November 20, 1980 and in this case
                                      the DJI did not reverse until it closed  4.9% over the 21-day ma  with both
                                      the P-I (breadth) and V-I (Up Vol - Down Vol) negative.  Our market is internally
                                      stronger.  Friday the DJI closed just 3.2% over the 21-dma with both the P-I and V-I
                                      clearly positive, standing respectively at +115 and +.089.  Two other
                                      technicals also make this market stronger than back then.  The Tiger
                                      Cumulative IPA (Accumulation) is much stronger now than back then
                                      and the Annualized daily rate of change for the DJI's 21-day ma is also
                                      more positive than it was back on 11/20/1980.

                         
                                               2016


                                               1980                             

                       
        
                                             What Would It Take
                               To Bring A New Peerless Buy Signal?

                                  
It will be difficult to get a new Buy signal in here.
                                                    The P-Indicator and IP21 (current Accum.) are too
                                                    negative given how far the DJI is above the 21-day ma.
                                                    An additional one percent gain, in fact, would probably
                                                    bring a new Peerless Sell.  So, what are we to make
                                                    of a 7% jump in the DJI since Election Day?  I will
                                                    do some studying of advances of that magnitude at this
                                                    time of the year and when (and if) they have occurred
                                                    without a Peerless Buy.  More on this later week.



                                              
 Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/25/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  


                             
There are now 19 of my Data Directories that show
                                             more than 2/3 of their stocks are above their 65-dma.
                                             That  is 3 more than on Wednesday.  Only 6 show
                                              more than 2/3 of their stocks below the 65-dma. I reckon
                                              a number above 66% shows good support on the next decline.

 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
                           11/25/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             1             1             .777 
GAMING         100%          1             .888          .888          .666          .666 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
TRANSP         .952          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 

INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
INSURANC       .882          .823          .794          .823          .794          .705 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          .875          .875 
FINANCE        .846          .835          .813          .824          .802          .802 
MILITARY       .843          .823          .784          .725          .745          .784 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 

RETAIL         .814          .796          .814          .74           .722          .759 
INDMATER       .794          .794          .784          .774          .764          .725 
NIFTY          .771          .742          .714          .742          .685          .657 
AUTO           .75           .725          .675          .6            .55           .575 
CHEM           .731          .743          .707          .707          .646          .634 
ELECTRON       .702          .724          .689          .672          .668          .676 

DOWJONES       .7            .6            .566          .6            .5            .533 
SP-100         .69           .628          .639          .618          .577          .608 
NASD-100       .68           .617          .648          .627          .585          .627 
RUS-1000       .674          .646          .632          .619          .582          .59 

HOMEBLDG       .666          .666          .666          .555          .444          .388 
SEMI           .661          .698          .676          .654          .639          .654 
INDEXES        .652          .623          .61           .602          .552          .577 
SP500          .651          .616          .606          .596          .561          .565 
OILGAS         .616          .639          .668          .656          .529          .488 
GREEN          .612          .612          .58           .516          .451          .451 
COMPUTER       .592          .555          .592          .629          .592          .555 
SOFTWARE       .582          .582          .626          .611          .611          .641 
FOOD           .533          .466          .6            .6            .466          .333 
COMODITY       .5            .528          .528          .585          .4            .371 
BIOTECH        .498          .474          .427          .481          .488          .471 
HACKERS        .476          .476          .523          .523          .523          .571 
PIPELINE       .444          .555          .555          .555          .555          .444 
REIT           .438          .403          .408          .316          .316          .285 
HOSPITAL       .375          .375          .125          .375          .375          .25 
UTILITY        .347          .152          .26           .173          .13           .13 

CHINA          .333          .32           .294          .294          .269          .269 
SOLAR          .294          .294          .294          .235          .294          .294 
GOLD           .192          .192          .21           .192          .175          .14 
BEVERAGE       .19           .19           .19           .19           .19           .142 
ETFS           .132          .147          .147          .132          .073          .088 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 


===============================================================
    
11-23-2016     Have a Happy Thanksgiving. 

                     
As long as the major ETF's Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages
                                 are rising, I would stay long IWM.  Of course, it is not clear if IWM will
                                 keep rising if the DJI tops out.  But DIA, SPY, MDY and IWM all show
                                 5-day mvg. averages that cannot easily turn down and their Closing Powers
                                 keep going higher.  In all-time high territory, it is harder for bears to gain
                                 the upper hand because it is not so obvious where sell orders should be
                                 concentrated.

                                 ETF            Open.     Clos.        11/23/16       11/25/16
                                                    Power     Power                          Pivot Point
                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 DIA               Both Up                190.59          189.3         All-time high and bullish flag breakout.
                                 SPY               Both Up                 220.7            218.99      megaphone pattern
                                 MDY             Both Up                297.3            292.36      megaphone pattern
                                 IWM             Both Up                133.63          130.30      ITRS = +.052.  Running in all-time high territ.

                                 QQQ            Up         
?               118.42          117.46     ITRS = -.034.  119-120 barrier is stopping its rallies.

                                 Notes: 
                                
Pivot point is level below which prices must drop for 5-day ma to turn down.
                                
                                           Tiger ITRS (Intermediate Relative Strength) measures ETF's pct change for last 50 days less DJI's.
                                
                                           A positive Opening Power suggests net Public Buying.
                                           A positive Closing Power suggests net Professional Buying.
                                           Both Up shows both Opening Power and Closing Power are rising.  Prices normally
                                           rise easily when this condition prevails.  It usually ends abruptly when Professionals
                                          switch and become net sellers.


                                          1920s - Will President Trump Bring on A Remake of 1920s?
                                                             
                                           

                                 We went to Barona Casino to feast Pilgrim style with American  Indians. 
                                 All the hostesses were dressed in the style of 1920's flappers.  Trump's
                                 influence is already apparent.  The 1920's were very good years for the stock
                                 market... at least until  September 1929.  The new President's prospective
                                 economic and immigration policies certainly look like Harding's and Coolidge's. 
                                 But won't we need lots of new technologies to match the role played by autos,
                                 airplanes, radios, phonographs, movies and electrical appliances in bringing about
                                 a 1920s'-like economic and stock market boom now?  


                                
Updates Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/23/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds and some other groups now)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

    
 

                  RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
                                            11/23/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             1             .777          1 
GAMING         100%          .888          .888          .666          .666          .666 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .904 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          .875          .875 
FINANCE        .835          .813          .824          .802          .791          .791 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .833 
INSURANC       .823          .794          .823          .794          .705          .705 
MILITARY       .823          .784          .725          .745          .784          .764 
RETAIL         .796          .814          .74           .722          .759          .703 
INDMATER       .794          .784          .774          .764          .725          .725 
CHEM           .743          .707          .707          .646          .634          .573 
NIFTY          .742          .714          .742          .685          .657          .6 
AUTO           .725          .675          .6            .55           .575          .55 
ELECTRON       .725          .69           .673          .669          .673          .678 
SEMI           .698          .676          .654          .639          .647          .632 
HOMEBLDG       .666          .666          .555          .444          .388          .277
 
RUS-1000       .646          .632          .619          .582          .588          .558 
OILGAS         .639          .668          .656          .529          .488          .511 
SP-100         .628          .639          .618          .577          .608          .597 
INDEXES        .623          .61           .602          .552          .577          .564 
NASD-100       .617          .648          .627          .585          .627          .627 
SP500          .616          .606          .596          .561          .563          .547 
GREEN          .612          .58           .516          .451          .451          .419 
DOWJONES       .6            .566          .6            .5            .533          .566 
SOFTWARE       .582          .626          .611          .611          .626          .507 
COMPUTER       .555          .592          .629          .592          .555          .592 
PIPELINE       .555          .555          .555          .555          .444          .333 
COMODITY       .528          .528          .585          .4            .371          .371 

HACKERS        .476          .523          .523          .523          .523          .571 
BIOTECH        .474          .427          .481          .488          .468          .447 
FOOD           .466          .6            .6            .466          .333          .333 
REIT           .404          .409          .318          .318          .287          .297 
HOSPITAL       .375          .125          .375          .375          .25           0 

CHINA          .311          .285          .285          .259          .259          .272 
SOLAR          .294          .294          .235          .294          .294          .294 
GOLD           .192          .21           .192          .175          .14           .157 
BEVERAGE       .19           .19           .19           .19           .142          .142 
UTILITY        .152          .26           .173          .13           .13           .13 
ETFS           .147          .147          .132          .073          .088          .058 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 




==================================================================

    
11-22-2016     As long as the major ETF's Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages
                                  are rising, I would stay long IWM.  It has done well in making a run
                                  into all-time high territory.  Small caps usually get a play late in a bull
                                  market and this is probably it.  December's bullish seasonality will
                                  also help.  It has even out-performed the DJI by 5% over the last
                                  ten weeks.  See also below how strong the Cumulative TigerSoft
                                  IPA is. 



                                
 

                                  But what to make of the Sell S9/S12?
 The Sell S12 is based on negative
                                  Accumulation as the DJI reaches more than 2.2% over the 21-day ma.
                                  The extraordinarily quick advance in the DJI caused this signal.  Now the
                                  Accumulation Index has turned positive.  This reduces much of the Sell S12's
                                  negativity.




                                  The Sell S9, on the other hand, shows the market's real problem.  The market
                                  as a whole is not rising because new money is coming into it.  Rather, it is mostly
                                  rising because money from the bonds being sold is now going into the leading blue chips,
                                  big banks, financials and regional banks and to a lesser extent into all the
                                  groups that would presumably benefit from the new Trump Presidency.

                                  Trump's victory WAS a surprise.  This is very important.  Washington will now
                                  create a whole new army of corporate winners to replace many of those
                                  the Obama-Clinton Democrats favored.  It takes time for stock prices to reflect
                                  this new reality.  And it also takes time for shorts to cover their various hedging positions.

                                              Look for the SP-500 to reach its red resistance line.


                                 
                                  Because the rally is not so much based on new money coming into the market,
                                  trading volume has not been great.  As a result, all the key indexes and ETFs show                          
                                  lagging OBV Lines.  And because of all the selling in fixed income stocks and bond funds
                                  on the NYSE (which is explained by the likelihood of a Fed rate increase and
                                  lots of new borrowing under a Trump Presidency), the A/D Line and the P-Indicator
                                  have lagged and are still lagging.  It is this which has caused our Peerless S9.

                                  But the re-deployment of money raised from selling bonds continues,
                                  as does the Partisan excitement that we finally again have a Republican
                                  President.  A big tax cut for corporations and the wealthy is a near certainty.
                                  This is very bullish for stocks.   I think this is what is boosting the markets now.
                                  The Sell S9 does not know this.  I believe this re-deployment and partisan
                                  buying may well continue to year's end or even a little longer, possibly
                                  climaxing when Trump is inaugurated. 

                                  In this environment, I think we will be well served by simply  watching our
                                  TigerSoft Closing Power, the 5-day moving averages and one other indicator,
                                  Tiger's IPA.  See it in the SP-500 chart above and elsewhere for the NASDAQ,
                                  OEX, NYSE and DJIA.   The Cumulative IPA Line is rising for all the Indexes.
                                  It is not lagging.  This indicator shows whether the closes are nearer the highs or
                                  lows each day and factors in  trading volume.  I have looked tonight at all the IPA-DJIA
                                  charts since 1965.  Big declines rarely take place until the IPA uptrend-line is broken. 
                                  In all those fifty years, I only find two exceptions to this rule.  In 1977 when there was
                                  very high inflation and in 1990 when Iraq attacked Kuwait DJI tops did occur
                                  which the IPA was slow to catch by virtue of a break in its  uptrend-line.

                                         
Trust The Professionals.  They Remain New Buyers.



                                  So, my conclusion is, despite the Sell S9-S12, to hold IWM and see if IWM won't
                                  rise still further. As long as Professionals remain bullish and the Accumulation
                                  Indicators are are up-trending, as are the 5-day moving averages, why sell?
                                  It may be that the Thanksgiving-seasonal buying is now over.  So, don't be
                                  surprised if there is a shallow pull-back now.  But as long as the major ETF's
                                  Closing Powers are rising and above their 21-day mvg. averages and as
                                  as long as their 5-day moving averages are rising, I would stay long IWM. 
                                  It has outperformed the DJI and is now making a run into all-time high territory,
                                  where sell orders cannot easily be bunched.


                           
  Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/22/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds and some other groups now)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
                                 
 

     RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
                                  11/22/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       11-21         11-18         11-17         11-16         11-15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             1             .777          1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .904          .857 
GAMING         .888          .888          .666          .666          .666          .666 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          .875          .875 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .833          .75 
RETAIL         .814          .74           .722          .759          .703          .629 
FINANCE        .813          .824          .802          .791          .802          .835 
INSURANC       .794          .823          .794          .705          .705          .705 
INDMATER       .784          .774          .764          .725          .725          .735 
MILITARY       .784          .725          .745          .784          .764          .764 
NIFTY          .714          .742          .685          .657          .6            .628 
CHEM           .707          .707          .646          .634          .573          .621 
ELECTRON       .692          .675          .67           .675          .683          .666 
SEMI           .676          .654          .639          .647          .632          .617 
AUTO           .675          .6            .55           .575          .55           .5 
OILGAS         .668          .656          .529          .488          .511          .54 
HOMEBLDG       .666          .555          .444          .388          .277          .333 

NASD-100       .648          .627          .585          .627          .627          .585 
SP-100         .639          .618          .577          .608          .597          .618 
RUS-1000       .632          .619          .582          .588          .558          .569 
SOFTWARE       .626          .611          .611          .626          .507          .492 
INDEXES        .61           .602          .552          .577          .564          .564 
SP500          .606          .596          .561          .563          .543          .559 
FOOD           .6            .6            .466          .333          .333          .333 
COMPUTER       .592          .629          .592          .555          .592          .592 
GREEN          .58           .516          .451          .451          .419          .451 
DOWJONES       .566          .6            .5            .533          .566          .6 
PIPELINE       .555          .555          .555          .444          .333          .444 
COMODITY       .528          .585          .4            .371          .371          .357 
HACKERS        .523          .523          .523          .523          .571          .523 
BIOTECH        .426          .479          .486          .466          .449          .496 
REIT           .409          .318          .318          .287          .292          .277 

CHINA          .303          .303          .278          .278          .291          .278 
SOLAR          .294          .235          .294          .294          .294          .294 
UTILITY        .26           .173          .13           .13           .13           .173 
GOLD           .21           .192          .175          .14           .157          .175 
BEVERAGE       .19           .19           .19           .142          .142          .19 
ETFS           .147          .132          .073          .088          .073          .102 
HOSPITAL       .125          .375          .375          .25           0             .25 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 


=================================================================
                 
11-21-2016  Bullish is Pre-Thanksgiving Seasonality
                                 Bullish, too, is Wall Street's Celebration
                                 of Trump's Expected Tax Cuts and Fiscal Expansionism.

                                 Will This Allow Breakouts by DJI, SP-500,
                                 NASDAQ and IWM?  

                       
The only November Peerless S9 in November since World  War II stopped the DJI
                                   when the DJI had closed 4.2% over the 21-day ma.  What's more? It only stopped the
                                   DJI, in part, because its Accumulation Index (IP21) was negative.  Our DJI now is
                                   only 2.8% over the 21-dma and its Accumulation Index is now quite positive. 

    
                                
 So, will the Sell S9/S12 stop the current rally?  Certainly, the OBV Lines for the  Hourly DJI,
                                  SP-500, NYSE, OEX and NASDAQ are badly lagging prices.  But Professionals are
                                  still pushing up prices.  See how the charts of DIA, SPY, MDY, IWM and FAS all
                                  show both rising Opening and Closing Powers.  Professionals, apparently believe that
                                  they can get the partisan exuberance we see now to become even more intense.  And,
                                  in fact, with all-time highs being reached, technical cases can be made in favor of another
                                  steep DJI spike up and for IWM to burst above  the megaphone pattern of the resistance line
                                  it has now reached.

                                  As long as the Closing Powers are rising and the major ETFs show rising 5-day mvg.
                                  averages, I would give the DJI and IWM more chance to achieve breakouts above the resistance
                                  lines shown below.  QQQ and the NASDAQ are more questionable. 

                                  For now, stay long IWM and do not yet go short DIA despite the earlier Peerless Sell S9/S12. 
                                  It does appear from the weakness of the NYSE A/D Line and P-Indicator that a failure by the DJI
                                  to breakout above its well-tested resistance line by mid next week will probably lead to a decline
                                  once the bullishness of the Thanksgiving week is past. 

                                  Only DIA's Pivot Point is near its close today.  The leaders, IWM and FAS are
                                  not likely to have their 5-day ma turn down. 

 
                                                             Close      5-day ma    IP21  
                                                                           Pivot Point
                                   DIA  Both Up  . 189.34    189.34        .21 (quite positive)
                                   SPY  Both Up    220.15    218.28        .106
                                   MDY Both Up   294.43   290.42        .114
                                   IWM Both Up   131,.6    129.5          ,153
                                   FAS  Both Up      36.28    35.66         .337 (very high Accumulation)  Financial are leaders.
                                   SOXL Both Up   54.87     49.66         .076

  
                           


                                  .
                        
  Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
                                                     
 11/21/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN
                    
               
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
                                  11/21/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       11-18         11-17         11-16         11-15         11-14
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          1             .777          1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             .972 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .904          .857          .952 
GAMING         .888          .666          .666          .666          .666          .555 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          .875          1 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .833          .75           .833 
FINANCE        .824          .802          .791          .802          .835          .824 
INSURANC       .823          .794          .705          .705          .705          .735 
INDMATER       .782          .772          .732          .732          .742          .752 
NIFTY          .742          .685          .657          .6            .628          .571 
RETAIL         .74           .722          .759          .703          .611          .666 
MILITARY       .711          .73           .769          .75           .75           .73 
CHEM           .707          .646          .634          .573          .621          .634 
ELECTRON       .675          .67           .675          .683          .662          .623 

OILGAS         .656          .529          .488          .511          .54           .412 
SEMI           .654          .639          .647          .632          .61           .566 
COMPUTER       .629          .592          .555          .592          .592          .518 
NASD-100       .627          .585          .627          .627          .574          .553 
RUS-1000       .619          .582          .588          .558          .566          .539 
SP-100         .618          .577          .608          .597          .618          .587 
SOFTWARE       .611          .611          .626          .507          .492          .492 
AUTO           .6            .55           .575          .55           .5            .45 
DOWJONES       .6            .5            .533          .566          .6            .533 
FOOD           .6            .466          .333          .333          .333          .266 
SP500          .596          .561          .563          .543          .557          .531 
INDEXES        .592          .55           .575          .563          .563          .512 
COMODITY       .585          .4            .371          .371          .357          .3 
HOMEBLDG       .555          .444          .388          .277          .333          .388 
PIPELINE       .555          .555          .444          .333          .444          .333 
HACKERS        .523          .523          .523          .571          .571          .571 
GREEN          .516          .451          .451          .419          .451          .387 
BIOTECH        .479          .486          .466          .449          .493          .493 
HOSPITAL       .375          .375          .25           0             .25           0 

REIT           .318          .318          .287          .292          .267          .303 
CHINA          .303          .278          .278          .291          .278          .253 
SOLAR          .235          .294          .294          .294          .235          .176 
GOLD           .192          .175          .14           .157          .175          .14 
BEVERAGE       .19           .19           .142          .142          .19           .142 
UTILITY        .173          .13           .13           .13           .152          .152 
ETFS           .132          .073          .088          .073          .102          .058 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 


 
===================================================================

                  11-18-2016    Clinched Sell S9/S12 Fights with
                                 Bullish Pre-Thanksgiving Seasonality. 

                        
 Let's hold off in shorting DIA and stay long IWM a little longer.

                                      Both the Opening and Closing Power are still rising for IWM.  So is its 5-day ma. 
                                      However, if its should close tomorrow below its 5-day ma pivot point, it should probably
                                      be sold.  It would take a drop by it of more than 1.85  tomorrow to turn down its 5-day ma. 
                                      Until that happens, lets see if IWM can breakout above its rising red resistance line.
                                      This is a bullish time of year.  A number of Bullish MAXCPs have made
                                      such breakouts and there are 10 more MAXCPs then MINCPs.

 
                         
                         
                        
There is certainly precedent for smaller caps or NASDAQ stocks topping
                                      out after the DJI.  This was what 1967-1968 was all about.  And we know
                                      that the NASDAQ kept making highs for two months after the DJI had
                                      hit its peak in January 2000.  Trump's unexpected ascendancy has unleashed
                                      a whole legion of presumed new winners in the stock market.  They are
                                      still getting a play, especially as disappointed Bond holders redeploy
                                      their funds.  Finally, it is rather normal for a long bull market NOT to end
                                      until the smaller stocks get a really good play.

                                                                    DJI-NASDAQ 1999-2000




                         
 
                        
The Peerless S9/S12 has stopped the DJI's post-Election DJI advance,
                                      but does it have the power to drop the DJI to the lower band?  Especially,
                                      in the normally bullish weak right before Thanksgiving (this Thursday).

                                      We can talk about Trump fiscal expansionism and lower corporate taxes,
                                      but there is no getting away from the fact that the DJI's internals look weak
                                      given how over-extended the DJI is.  The DJI now stands 2.6% over the
                                      21-day ma but two of its four key internal strength are negative and the
                                      current Accumulation and OPct are only slightly positive.  In addition, DIA
                                      will need to rise by .32 to prevent its 5-day ma from falling.  The turning
                                      down of DIA's 5-day ma would be one more sign of impending weakness here.



                                   
            
                             
Look at DIA's exploded chart.   Its Closing Power has slightly broken its
                                             steep uptrend.  A retreat by CP back to its rising 21-day ma would seem
                                             likely.  Its Opening Power is still safely rising for now.



                           
Seasonality is certainly bullish now.  Tiger lets us easily see these numbers
                                          for the period 1965-2014.  The DJI typically rallies 65.3% of the time over the
                                          next five trading days and rises 1.4% on average  ten trading days after
                                          November 20th.  The numbers are equally bullish in Presidential Election years.
                                       
  But there are exceptions. 

                                         The DJI topped out about this time in 1980 two  weeks after the Republican won
                                          the Presidency from the Democrat Carter.  Republican partisans were too quick
                                          to chase the market and Professionals were happy to take their money.

                                          This seems eerily similar to now.  See how back then, the DJI was also trapped
                                          in a megaphone (broadening top pattern) pattern.  With the help of Peerless
                                          signals, the DJI formed a quick H/S top and fell to the lower band, only to rally
                                          back to new highs in late December.  Of course, such historical parallels are
                                          far from perfect.  See how far up from the 21-day ma was on 11/20/1980.  It was
                                          almost 5% above the 21-day ma.  The farthest up the DJI has been on this run
                                          is only 3.6%.   


                                     
Will the DJI Top out,
                                          just like in November 1980?



             


                                                                                Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/18/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock) TXN
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN

                                 
                 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES
                                                    BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

 

                  RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES 
               BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
                                       11/18/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       11-17         11-16         11-15        11-14         11-1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           100%          .777          1             1             1             .888 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             .972          .972 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .904          .857          .952          .809 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          .875          1             .875 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .75           .833          .666 
FINANCE        .802          .791          .802          .835          .824          .813 
INSURANC       .794          .705          .705          .705          .735          .764 
INDMATER       .772          .732          .732          .742          .752          .683 
MILITARY       .73           .769          .75           .75           .73           .75 
RETAIL         .722          .759          .703          .611          .666          .629 
NIFTY          .685          .657          .6            .628          .571          .485 
ELECTRON       .67           .675          .683          .662          .623          .611 
GAMING         .666          .666          .666          .666          .555          .666 

CHEM           .646          .634          .573          .621          .634          .585 
SEMI           .639          .647          .632          .61           .566          .551 
SOFTWARE       .611          .626          .507          .492          .507          .582 
COMPUTER       .592          .555          .592          .592          .555          .555 
NASD-100       .585          .627          .627          .574          .553          .521 
RUS-1000       .582          .588          .558          .566          .539          .508 
SP-100         .577          .608          .597          .618          .587          .597 
SP500          .561          .563          .543          .557          .531          .505 
PIPELINE       .555          .444          .333          .444          .333          .222 
AUTO           .55           .575          .55           .5            .45           .475 
INDEXES        .55           .575          .563          .563          .521          .516 
OILGAS         .529          .488          .511          .54           .424          .36 
HACKERS        .523          .523          .571          .571          .619          .523 
DOWJONES       .5            .533          .566          .6            .533          .633 

BIOTECH        .486          .466          .449          .493          .489          .469 
FOOD           .466          .333          .333          .333          .266          .133 
GREEN          .451          .451          .419          .451          .387          .354 
HOMEBLDG       .444          .388          .277          .333          .388          .222 
COMODITY       .4            .371          .371          .357          .3            .3 
HOSPITAL       .375          .25           0             .25           0             0 

REIT           .318          .287          .292          .267          .303          .222 
SOLAR          .294          .294          .294          .235          .176          .176 
CHINA          .278          .278          .291          .278          .253          .253 
BEVERAGE       .19           .142          .142          .19           .142          .142 
GOLD           .175          .14           .157          .175          .14           .157 
UTILITY        .13           .13           .13           .152          .152          .152 
ETFS           .073          .088          .073          .102          .058          .058 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 

============================================================
              
11/17/2016    Clinched Sell S9/S12 Still Stands. 
                               
NASDAQ and IWM are  on verge of breaking Out.
                                                All key ETFs Closing Powers and 5-day mvg.
                                                Averages are still rising.   Can Trump deliver
                                                Growth without Inflation?  That's what Dollar's
                                                Strength and Booming Russell-2000 seem to
                                                show that Professionals now believe.
Are we headed
                                                for repeats of the very bullish stock market years:
                                                1983-1985 and 1996-2000?  Will Congressional
                                                Republicans allow the new President to do big
                                                Infrastructure and Public Works spending? `

 
                                                Wait to short DIA.  Hold IWM long. Trust the Professionals.  

                                                                             DJIA

 

                                      
DIA's Internals are all rising.                              
                                   

                                      
Right now it looks like the NASDAQ looks like it will follow
                                                           Semi-Conductors, which often lead prices, and breakout to new highs where
                                                           the path of least resistance is up.  The megaphone patterns
                                                           in the SP-500, OEX, NYSE and NASDAQ all would seem to be
                                                           setups for another advance.  Again, I am reminded of the
                                                           DJI's extended megaphone top in 1980-1981, which seems
                                                           the closest parallel politically.  And we know from the year
                                                           2000, that the NASDAQ can keep climbing for 3 months
                                                           even as the DJI falls because of its Sell S9.



                                                           The volume measures all continue to lag.  See the Index
                                                           charts and the Hourly DJI's OBV/DISI.  This means any breakout
                                                           will probably be limited.

                                                           But we will be entering a bullish seasonal period next week
                                                           and we see a number of BULLISH MAXCP stocks breaking
                                                           out above rising resistance lines.  I suspect that they, like
                                                           SOXL, are warning that the broad market will make another
                                                           run upwards here very soon.  One factor influencing this judgment
                                                           is the simple appreciation that there are many more, 10x more,
                                                           MAXCPs (stocks making new CP new highs than stocks
                                                           making CP new lows.)  


                                                                                  Watch Your Dollar Grow.


                                                            The Dollar's Strength (UPP made a nominal new high today.) coupled with
                                                            prospects for a Trump fiscal expansionism are quite bullish.  That
                                                            is why both banks stocks and the smaller companies represented
                                                            by IWM are both simultaneously so strong.  This is a situation which
                                                            it is very hard to find precedent for.  But, if my economics'
                                                            understanding is right here, a new boom is just in the beginning.
                                                            Look back at 1983-1985 and 1996-2000. The stock market boomed
                                                            in those years.  Economic growth was also very high.
 
                                           

                            https://www.northerntrust.com/insights-research/market-commentary?c=a36a637f9b45af78f8463a58afd57fab

        
                                                            Bears will, of course, point to the collapsing Bond Market and
                                                            tell us that Bonds are more important than the equities' market for
                                                            many big funds.  But, I would counter that the trend we see now will continue
                                                            and money will simply continue to come out of Bonds and flow
                                                            into stocks. 

                                                            Fiscal expansionism, in fact, can even counter restrictive monetary
                                                            policies for a while and allow stocks to advance further.  That is the
                                                            reason that Martin Zweig required not one but three rate hikes in a row
                                                            before tighter money could flash a Sell.



                                                           CP - Tiger's Closing Power - usually correctly predicts price
                                                           trends.  See tonight's special study of SPY since 1995 in this respect.
                                                           Year after year, all one had to do to make money was be long
                                                           when CP was in a rising trend for SPY and short when it was falling.
                                                           There were a few exceptions.  In these cases, CP lagged sometimes after
                                                           a bullish flat-topped breakout (1996).  We should always be on the
                                                           alert for big bulges of Accumulation, they can over-ride a temporarily
                                                            lagging CP's apparent bearishness. 



                                                            The Closing Powers  are rising for all the key ETFs,
                                                            In addition, all have rising 5-day moving averages.  So, it is not
                                                            yet time to sell short.  IWM, in fact, probably should be played long
                                                            while its Closing Power and 5-day mvg. averages are rising.
                                                            Another thing to note is themost bullish short-term "BOTHUP" situation
                                                            applies now.  This is where both Opening and Closing Power
                                                            are rising.  In this environment, a stock or ETF may be expected to typically
                                                            jump at the opening and then move still higher doing the day.  Another
                                                            thing here: almost always it is the break in the rising Closing Power
                                                            that brings a reversal in the price trend.

                                                                          It seems to be only a matter of time
                                                                          before GLD makes a new low.  Notice
                                                                          its nested head/shoulders. 



                                                            Let's also watch to see if Gold (GLD) breaks to new lows.  Its Closing
                                                            Power and Accumulation Index are very weak.  I would think it
                                                            should be shorted on such a breakdown.  Such a decline would
                                                            mean interest rates will, in fact, probably be going up in December
                                                            and Bonds much lower.





                                         
 Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil  
 

                                                     
 11/17/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPMMSFTNVDA (Super Stock)  
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,
                                            NUGTOIHOIL, RETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN

                                 
                 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES
                                                    BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

                                                                                            11/17/16      
 

 
             11/17/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       11/16         11/15         11/14         11/11         11/10
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       100%          1             1             1             1             1 
REGBANKS       100%          1             1             .972          .972          .972 
INFRASTRUCTURE .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
TRANSP         .904          .904          .857          .952          .809          .809 
EDU            .875          .875          .875          1             .875          1 
JETS           .833          .833          .75           .833          .666          .75 
FINANCE        .791          .802          .835          .824          .813          .791 
COAL           .777          1             1             1             .888          .888 
MILITARY       .769          .75           .75           .73           .75           .711 
RETAIL         .759          .703          .611          .666          .611          .5 
INDMATER       .725          .725          .735          .745          .676          .656 
INSURANC       .705          .705          .705          .735          .764          .764 
ELECTRON       .675          .683          .662          .623          .615          .525 
GAMING         .666          .666          .666          .555          .666          .666 
NIFTY          .657          .6            .628          .571          .485          .514 
SEMI           .647          .632          .61           .566          .551          .492 
CHEM           .634          .573          .621          .634          .585          .56 
NASD-100       .627          .627          .574          .553          .521          .457 
SOFTWARE       .626          .507          .492          .507          .567          .417 
SP-100         .608          .597          .618          .587          .597          .618 
RUS-1000       .588          .558          .566          .539          .504          .501 
INDEXES        .577          .564          .564          .523          .518          .548 
AUTO           .575          .55           .5            .45           .475          .425 
SP500          .563          .543          .557          .531          .498          .533 
COMPUTER       .555          .592          .592          .555          .555          .481 
DOWJONES       .533          .566          .6            .533          .633          .633 
HACKERS        .523          .571          .571          .619          .523          .523
ALL STOCKS     .510
 
OILGAS         .488          .511          .54           .424          .354          .418 
BIOTECH        .466          .449          .493          .489          .469          .432 
GREEN          .451          .419          .451          .387          .354          .29 
PIPELINE       .444          .333          .444          .333          .222          .333 
HOMEBLDG       .388          .277          .333          .388          .222          .222 
COMODITY       .371          .371          .357          .3            .314          .385 
FOOD           .333          .333          .333          .266          .2            .466 
SOLAR          .294          .294          .235          .176          .176          .117 
REIT           .287          .292          .267          .303          .222          .191 
CHINA          .278          .291          .278          .253          .253          .177 
HOSPITAL       .25           0             .25           0             0             0 
BEVERAGE       .142          .142          .19           .142          .142          .142 
GOLD           .14           .157          .175          .14           .157          .175 
UTILITY        .13           .13           .152          .152          .152          .108 
ETFS           .088          .073          .102          .058          .058          .102 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 

                                        
                                                          
    
=============================================================
                                           
                      
11/16/2016    Clinched Sell S9/S12 Still Stands.
                                     
 But there is a good chance that will get a new Peerless Buy B4
                                                           if a new buying surge pushes the Peerless breadth (P-I) and
                                                           Accumulation Index up enough.  The DJI's megaphone
                                                           price pattern suggests a target of at least 19300.  A breakout
                                                           run by the NASDAQ could be starting, too.  IWM would
                                                           seem the best way for ETF traders to play this, should it
                                                           develop.  Note the increasing number of MAXCP stocks
                                                           that are breaking out above their own  rising resistance lines.

                                                          The closest historical parallel I can find is when Reagan won
                                                          the Presidency in November 1980.  See how the DJI formed
                                                          a broadening top (megaphone pattern) there.  Note that it took
                                                          4-5 sets of Peerless Sells to finally bring on a bear market
                                                          because of the very high interest rates the FED imposed.


                                                                                DJI and NASDAQ 1980-1981



                                                                         DJI and NASDAQ Now
                                                         

                                                         
Studying the past cases where a Republican took over the White House
                                                          from a Democrat helps us understand the strength of the market now even as
                                                          it is hit by a Peerless S9/S12.  A rally though the end of the month of
                                                          November, at least, was achieved in 1952, 1968, 1980 and 2000.  This
                                                          surprised many because of the active wars going on in 1952 and 1968,
                                                          because of the extraordinarily high interest rates of 1980 and because
                                                          of the high tech "bust" that had already started by late 2000. 

                                                          I think it's very important to appreciate that the prospective
                                                          Trump Presidency does not have to cope with any of these handicaps.
                                                          And, just as important, his party controls a working majority in Congress.
                                                          This was not true in any of these earlier cases.  Just on this basis, one might 
                                                          think that the sudden, mostly unexpected prospect of a new Republican
                                                          Presidency would propel the market significantly.


                                                         
The risks inherent in his quirky Personality would appear to be the major
                                                          force holding the stock market back.  Is that enough to stop the stock market
                                                          here?  I would not think so, but for our clinched Peerless S9/S12.   It is
                                                          because of the Politics of the current market environment and the expected
                                                          Republican Partisan celebration, that I would think the DJI and the other
                                                          Indexes, NASDAQ, SP-500, QQQ, IWM, OEX, NYSE will all reach the 
                                                          rising resistance lines of their megaphone patterns.  It is why I think we
                                                          must short only ETFs now whose Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages
                                                          are falling.  Only QQQ has met those criteria.  And it appears to be on the
                                                          cusp of turning bullish.  See how its 5-day ma will probably turn up tomorrow
                                                          and a strong close would break its Closing Power downtrend.  If these
                                                          things occur, cover any short in QQQ.



                                                         

                                                           Buy IWM but Follow QuickSilver Strategy for Trading.

                                                      I think the best way for ETF traders to play the undeniable strength
                                                      is with IWM.  As long as its Closing Power and 5-day moving average
                                                      are rising, it looks like a prime beneficiary of Trump's expansionist
                                                      vision for the economy.  A breakout above its rising resistance line
                                                      should start a swift vertical ascent.  That this may, indeed, what will
                                                      happen next is shown by the growing number of MAXCP stocks
                                                      that are breakout out or have broken out above their rising
                                                      resistance lines. 





                                                          
 Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                     
 11/16/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMGN AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPM, NVDA (Super Stock)
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

                                 
                 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES
                                                    BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA

                                                                                            11/16/16              
 

  
 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             1             1             1             1 
COAL           1             1             1             .888          .888          1 
REGBANKS       1             1             .972          .972          .972          .972 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909 
EDU            .875          .875          1             .875          1             .875 
TRANSP         .862          .793          .758          .758          .689          .62 
JETS           .833          .75           .833          .666          .75           .833 
FINANCE        .802          .835          .824          .813          .802          .758 
MILITARY       .75           .75           .73           .75           .711          .653 
INDMATER       .725          .735          .745          .676          .656          .617 
INSURANC       .714          .714          .742          .771          .771          .628 
RETAIL         .703          .611          .666          .611          .5            .333 
ELECTRON       .682          .66           .622          .613          .523          .523 
GAMING         .666          .666          .555          .666          .666          .555 
NIFTY          .666          .666          .629          .592          .592          .666 
SEMI           .632          .61           .566          .551          .492          .514 
NASD-100       .627          .574          .553          .521          .446          .489 
SP-100         .597          .618          .587          .597          .618          .567 
COMPUTER       .592          .592          .555          .555          .518          .481 
CHEM           .573          .621          .634          .585          .56           .512 
HACKERS        .571          .571          .619          .523          .523          .428 
DOWJONES       .566          .6            .533          .633          .633          .566 
INDEXES        .564          .564          .523          .518          .543          .518 
RUS-1000       .558          .566          .539          .504          .497          .471 
AUTO           .55           .5            .45           .475          .425          .25 
SP500          .543          .557          .531          .498          .527          .48 
OILGAS         .511          .54           .424          .354          .418          .412 
SOFTWARE       .507          .492          .507          .567          .432          .447 
BIOTECH        .449          .493          .489          .469          .429          .359 
GREEN          .419          .451          .387          .354          .29           .29 
COMODITY       .371          .357          .3            .314          .385          .4 
FOOD           .333          .333          .266          .2            .466          .6 
PIPELINE       .333          .444          .333          .222          .222          .222 
SOLAR          .294          .235          .176          .176          .117          .117 
REIT           .292          .267          .303          .222          .186          .207 
CHINA          .291          .278          .253          .253          .177          .278 
HOMEBLDG       .277          .333          .388          .222          .222          .111 
GOLD           .157          .175          .14           .157          .175          .228 
BEVERAGE       .142          .19           .142          .142          .142          .19 
UTILITY        .13           .152          .152          .152          .108          .304 
ETFS           .073          .102          .058          .058          .102          .235 
BONDFUND       0             0             0             0             0             0 
HOSPITAL       0             .25           0             0             0             0 


==================================================================
                      
11/15/2016    Stay short QQQ but let's hold off shorting DIA for now.

                                                          Admittedly, the DJI looks quite over-extended when we take into account its
                                                          Hourly chart's lagging OBV/DISI and when we look at the
                                                          A/D Line chart for our Tiger Index of the DJI-30 stocks.  Clearly, too much
                                                          of the rally has come from too few DJI stocks.   See the oversized
                                                          gains since 11/7 in just GS +16%, JPM +13%, CAT +12%.  The
                                                          median DJI stock gain in this period is only a little over 1%. Nine
                                                          of them are actually down. 

                                                          Buyers' remorse is probably inevitable in the case of Trump.  Certainly,
                                                          newspapers like the New York Times have no plans to let up in their
                                                          criticisms, especially of the more outspoken and very right-wing
                                                          leaders in his new government. 

                                                                
The DJI is at the upper band (in very over-bought territory)
                                                                 but shows only a slightly positive P-I, IP21 and V-I reading.
                                                                 Breadth will need to improve dramatically to support a rally
                                                                 from here and give us new Peerless Buy Breadth-based B4
                                                                 signal.  There is still a chance for an Accumulation-based B4.
                                                                 It is based on a striking advance in this IP21 indicator in ten
                                                                 days or less.

 
 

                                                         Our S9/S12 was clinched Thursday when the DJI was 18848.
                                                         It is now 85 points higher.  The history of the 24 earlier Sell S9/S12
                                                         below shows that the median paper loss is between 1% and 2%
                                                         before the DJI turns down.  Only in 1/8 of the cases did a Peerless
                                                         S9/S12 fail to be reversed profitably, so maybe be the Trump-Partisan
                                                         rally will end without the DJI going up much more.  For now, we
                                                         should wait for the ETFs' Closing Powers and 5-day mvg.avgs
                                                         to turn down.                                                               

                                                                                  S9-S12s: total 24 Earlier Cases: 1928-2016
                                                                              Losses and Gains on Shorting DJI on second Sell.
 
                                                                                           Losses = 3 
                                                                                           Gains 4% to +8% = 7 
                                                                                           Gains 8% to +12% = 5 
                                                                                           Gains 12% to 20% = 2 
                                                                                           Gains >20% = 3
                                                                                            Median Gain =  > +8% 

                                                             Paper Losses  
                                                            
None  = 7
                                                                                            0% to +1% =  4
                                                             
1% to +2% = 5 
                                                             
2% to +3% =  4
                                                                                             3% to +4% = 3
                                                                                             4.3%  = 1
                                                    -------------------------------------------- 

               
ETF       Opwr   CPwr        5-day-MA                                                    R esistance/ S upport  
                                                                       AROC       
                        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       
DIA       Up       Up            +159%    Pivot Point is 3.39 points lower.   At 3.4% upper band with bearish divergences
                                                                                   (5-dma cannot easily turn down.)
                        SPY       Up       Up             +97%     Pivot Point is 1.90 points lower     
R=219 (+.72 higher)
                      
                       QQQ     Up      
Bearish      -38%      Pivot Point is 1.44 higher.             R=118 (+1.78 higher)
                       TECL  
 Up       Bearish                     Pivot Point is 2.02 higher.                          
                                                                                    (Cannot easily turn up.)  
                   
                                           
                       IWM     Up        Up           +429%     Pivot Point is 7.01+ points lower.   R=47 (2.13 higher)

                                                                                    
(5-dma cannot easily turn down.)


                                         Don't Forget Our QuickSilver Program

                                
I have neglected our Tiger QuickSilver ranking program in all the excitement
                                                  about Trump.  You will remember it finds the leveraged ETFs with the highest
                                                  5-day AROC (annualized rate of change) and we want to buy those with an
                                                 IP21 above .15 when both the Opening and Closing Power are rising.  That is
                                                 now true of KRU (Regional Banking) and TMV the leveraged short of 3-year Treasuries.
                                                 See below how well they have done in the last week.  They can be traded aggressively
                                                 if you watch them closely and sell on the next price Reversal Day down, CLosing
                                                 Power trend-break or turning down of their 5-dma.

 

                                      


 

                                      
           Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                     
 11/15/16:    Bullish MAXCPs  (mostly Regional Banks)
                                                                            Bearish MINCPs
 (mostly Bond Funds)
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMGN AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPM, NVDA (Super Stock)
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN    
   
 
 

        RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES 
    BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 
                          11/15/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
                            11/14         11/11         11/10         11/9          11/8     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             1             1             1             .857 
COAL           1             1             .888          .888          1             .777 
REGBANKS       1             .972          .972          .972          .972          .694 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .909          .818 
EDU            .875          1             .875          1             .875          .75 
FINANCE        .835          .824          .813          .802          .758          .582 
TRANSP         .793          .758          .758          .689          .62           .551 
JETS           .75           .833          .666          .75           .833          .833 
MILITARY       .75           .73           .75           .711          .653          .365 
INDMATER       .735          .745          .676          .656          .617          .509 
INSURANC       .714          .742          .771          .771          .628          .4 
GAMING         .666          .555          .666          .666          .555          .555 
ELECTRON       .66           .622          .613          .523          .532          .506 
NIFTY          .628          .571          .485          .514          .571          .514 
CHEM           .621          .634          .585          .56           .512          .378 
SP-100         .618          .587          .597          .618          .587          .484 
RETAIL         .611          .666          .611          .5            .333          .259 
SEMI           .61           .566          .551          .492          .529          .551 
DOWJONES       .6            .533          .633          .633          .566          .433 
COMPUTER       .592          .555          .555          .518          .481          .444 
NASD-100       .574          .553          .521          .446          .5            .414 
HACKERS        .571          .619          .523          .523          .428          .333 
RUS-1000       .566          .539          .504          .497          .474          .421 
INDEXES        .564          .523          .518          .543          .523          .418 
SP500          .557          .531          .498          .527          .488          .446 
OILGAS         .54           .424          .354          .418          .418          .325 
AUTO           .5            .45           .475          .425          .25           .225 
BIOTECH        .493          .489          .469          .429          .359          .194 
SOFTWARE       .492          .507          .567          .432          .447          .373 
GREEN          .451          .387          .354          .29           .29           .29 
PIPELINE       .444          .333          .222          .222          .222          .111 
COMODITY       .357          .3            .314          .385          .4            .428 
FOOD           .333          .266          .2            .466          .6            .733 
HOMEBLDG       .333          .388          .222          .222          .111          .166
 
CHINA          .278          .253          .253          .177          .278          .303 
REIT           .267          .303          .222          .186          .191          .171 
HOSPITAL       .25           0             0             0             0             .5 
SOLAR          .235          .176          .176          .117          .176          .352 
BEVERAGE       .19           .142          .142          .142          .19           .38 
GOLD           .175          .14           .157          .175          .228          .175 
UTILITY        .152          .152          .152          .108          .304          .63 
ETFS           .102          .058          .058          .102          .25           .397 
BONDFUND       0             .008          0             0             .008          0 


                                      
================================================================
                      
11/14/2016   Our S9/S12 was clinched Thursday.  Predicting what will happen
                                                         next with DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM is made tricky now because seasonality
                                                         will turn quite bullish from Thanksgiving to the end of the year and
                                                         because of the enormous shifting of funds taking place now from
                                                         one sector to another.  Even so, I would
sell short more QQQ.  Only its
                                                         Closing Power and 5-day ma are both falling now.  We can also
                                                         understand how the new Trump Administration will negatively impact
                                                         QQQ.  Even better would probably be
short sales of the weakest foreign
                                                         ETFs and more short sales of Bond Funds and Gold Stocks' ETFs.

                                                         These represent the weakest Sectors now.




                                                                            
 Opwr   CP        5-day-MA                                                                      ITRS    Optimized Signal
                                                                                                       AROC       
                                                                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------
                                                               
DIA       Up       Up        +173%   Pivot Point is 5 1/2 points lower. lower.         na           Red Sell (new)
                                                                                                                      (5-dma cannot easily turn down.)
                                                                SPY       Up       >MA    +80%     Pivot Point is 2.58 points lower                  
 -.029
                                                                QQQ     Up      
Bearish -74%     Pivot Point is 2.48 higher.                            -.042             Sell
                                                                TECL  
 Up       Bearish -371%   Pivot Point is 4.12 higher.                            -.106             Sell 
                                                                                                                      (Cannot easily turn down.)                     
                                           
                                                                IWM     Up        Up        +432%   Pivot Point is 10.27+ points lower.              .016             Buy

                                                                                                                     
 (5-dma cannot easily turn down.)



                                                        
Trump's victory would seem  be a great victory for lower corporate tax rates,
                                                         higher rates of corporate profits, lower taxation of the wealthy leaving more
                                                         funds for them to invest in stocks,  de-regulation of banks, biotechs and the
                                                         energy industry plus a new protectionism, lots of new infra-structure spending,
                                                         better relations  with Russian, more economic growth and higher interest rates. 



                                                         All this creates a brand new mix of winners and losers on Wall Street that
                                                         should dwarf the effects of the Sell S9/S12.

                                                         Because Trump's victory was unexpected for most, it will take some time for the
                                                         sellers of Bonds, Utilities, REITs, defensive dividend stocks, foreign ETFs, big high tech
                                                         multinationals and Gold/Silver to finish selling what now seems doomed to weakness
                                                         under Trump and redeploy their funds into Banks and Financials, Infrastructure-Building
                                                         stocks, Biotechs and Security/Military Stocks.
                                                         
                                                        
Buying into these new sectors of capital in-flow (bullish) and shorting the
                                                         sector show capital out-flow seems better than trading DIA and SPY?

                                                         But we can see how the technicals are matching the fundamental trends outlined above.

                                                         First, we can reason that the QQQ with its many high tech multinationals will be much
                                                         more vulnerable if Trump restricts trade with China or limits the issuing of green cards
                                                         to talented foreign workers working for the likes of GOOG, AAPL, FB, MSFT, etc.
                                                         See how QQQs falling Closing Power is matched by its 5-day ma having turn down today.
                                                         Given this weakness and the Peerless S9/S12, QQQ looks like the best ETF to short,
                                                         though one might also consider TECL.
                                                          
                                                         I believe that it will be hard for DIA (with its big Banks and premier infrastructure stock-CAT)
                                                         to decline much.  Its Closing Power and 5-day ma are rising now and cannot easily turn down.

                                                         The most bullish ETF now is IWM.  With its legions of smaller companies catering mostly
                                                         to domestic markets, it may not decline at all in here.  We see how much it has risen
                                                        since the day before the election.  We see its current ITRS (50-day Relative Strength)
                                                        shows it to be stronger than the DJI.  Significantly, both its Opening and Closing Power
                                                        are now rising.  And its 5-day ma is advancing at an annualized    rate and cannot
                                                        easily turn down.
                                                        
 
                                                       
  Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                     
 11/14/16:    Bullish MAXCPs   Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMGN AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPM, NVDA (Super Stock)
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN    
   
 
 

              RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES 
            BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
11/14/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5 
                            11/11         11/10         11/09         11/08
                                                        Trump         Election
                                                        wins          Day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             1             1             .857          .857 
COAL           1             .888          .888          1             .777          .888 
EDU            1             .875          1             .875          .75           .625 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          .972          .694          .694 
INFRA          .909          .909          .909          .909          .818          .727 
JETS           .833          .666          .75           .833          .833          .75 
FINANCE        .824          .813          .802          .758          .593          .56 
TRANSP         .758          .758          .689          .62           .551          .586 
INDMATER       .745          .676          .656          .617          .519          .46 
INSURANC       .742          .771          .771          .628          .4            .314 
MILITARY       .73           .75           .711          .653          .365          .365 
RETAIL         .666          .611          .5            .333          .277          .259 
CHEM           .634          .585          .56           .512          .402          .39 
ELECTRON       .622          .613          .523          .532          .506          .476 
HACKERS        .619          .523          .523          .428          .333          .38 
SP-100         .587          .597          .618          .587          .474          .412 
NIFTY          .571          .485          .514          .571          .514          .542 
SEMI           .566          .551          .492          .529          .536          .514 
COMPUTER       .555          .555          .518          .481          .444          .407 
GAMING         .555          .666          .666          .555          .555          .555 
NASD-100       .553          .521          .446          .5            .414          .393 
RUS-1000       .538          .503          .497          .473          .42           .389 
DOWJONES       .533          .633          .633          .566          .433          .333 
SP500          .529          .496          .527          .486          .442          .391 
INDEXES        .523          .518          .543          .523          .422          .372 
SOFTWARE       .507          .567          .432          .447          .388          .447 
BIOTECH        .489          .469          .429          .359          .197          .184 
AUTO           .425          .45           .425          .225          .225          .2 
OILGAS         .424          .354          .418          .418          .325          .313 
HOMEBLDG       .388          .222          .222          .111          .166          .111 
GREEN          .387          .354          .29           .29           .29           .29 
PIPELINE       .333          .222          .222          .222          .111          .111 
REIT           .303          .222          .186          .191          .171          .166 
COMODITY       .3            .314          .385          .4            .428          .357 

FOOD           .266          .2            .466          .6            .8            .733 
CHINA          .253          .253          .177          .278          .303          .265 
SOLAR          .176          .176          .117          .176          .352          .294 
UTILITY        .152          .152          .108          .304          .586          .478 
BEVERAGE       .142          .142          .142          .19           .38           .19 
GOLD           .14           .157          .175          .228          .175          .175 
ETFS           .058          .058          .102          .25           .382          .308 
BONDFUND       .008          0             0             .008          0             .017 
HOSPITAL       0             0             0             0             .5            .5 



==============================================================
                      
11/11/2016   Our S9/S12 was clinched Thursday. But Trump's prospective
                                                         Presidency would seem to give much of Wall Street nearly all it
                                                         could ever wish for.  So, right now there is a buying stampede.
                                                         Why fight it?  Use Tiger's Closing Power's uptrend and the trend
                                                         of the 5-day ma to judge when Professionals believe a pull-back
                                                         is starting.   Only the QQQ has a bearish down-trending Closing
                                                         Power but its 5-day ma is still rising.  Apparently, big tech stocks
                                                         are afraid of the consequences of Trump protectionism.  But those
                                                         fears seem likely to dissipate if the rally continues.

                                                                            
 Opwr   CP        5-day-MA AROC (Annualized Rate of Change)
                                                                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
                                                               
DIA       Up       Up        +265.6   Pivot Point is 6+ points lower.
                                                                SPY       Up       >MA    +184%  Pivot Point is 3+ points lower
                                                                QQQ     Up      
Bearish +92.6% Pivot Point is .55 higher.
                                                                IWM     Up        Up        +484%   Pivot Point is 8+ points lower.


                                                       
 If Trump uses his power wisely and does not cause his opponents
                                                         to coalesce and fight him at every step, Wall Street's bulls will should
                                                         be very happy.  A massive Public Works program will be reminiscent
                                                         of IKE's Inter-State Highway Construction Program in 1954.  That
                                                         was an extraordinarily bullish period.
 
                                                         But Trump's combative personality is probably too irrepressible to
                                                         be wisely tempered.  So the Sell S9/S12 on the DJI could still work out. 

                                                         But right now, Peerless users should appreciate that the biggest previous
                                                         paper loss with S9/S12 signals was 4.3% and that one eight of these signals
                                                         were reversed with a loss.  Note that a loss  of more than 2% on the DJI
                                                         before the markets turn down from the second signal, the S12, occurred in
                                                         one third of the 24 earlier cases.   (See Thurday's Hotline for these statistics. )

                                 
  Conclusion.  Cover all short sales, except those in Bonds, Gold and Utilities.
                                                     Buy new high Accumulation Breakouts in the strongest sectors (see below).
  


                                                   
Reasons Not To Go Short Yet.
 

                                  
1) The DJI has rallied from 17500 (the lower band, early Wednesday morning) to
                                                     18847 Friday's close.  This is a 3 day DJIA jump of  1347 points or 7.7%.  Earlier
                                                      studies I have done show this is way too much market strength to sell short.

                                                      The S9s and S12s have rules built into them preventing their appearance when
                                                      the DJI rises so steeply in normal trading hours. What stopped these rules from
                                                      working here was the wild swing down in international trading on Wednesday
                                                      morning.  Even as such, these big gains have caused our Closing Powers to rise
                                                      very steeply.  Clearly, Professionals still are eagerly buying.  Only when they stop,
                                                      would I want to go short.

                                                     2) There are no prior cases of Sell S9/Sell S12s in November. This is not
                                                     accidental.  Though seasonality is mildly bearish for the next week,
                                                     it is normally quite bullish through the end of  the year.  Since 1965,
                                                     the DJI has rallied 63.3% of the time over the next 10 trading days,
                                                     69.4% over the next 20 trading days and 79.6% over the next 40
                                                     trading days.

                                                     3.) The weakening NYSE A/D Line owes mostly to the collapsing
                                                     Bond Market.  Unless the bond market collapses so fast as to cause a
                                                     liquidity crisis for the entire market, it may also be taken as a sign that money is
                                                     flowing out of fixed income plays into more speculative stocks.

                                                     4) The biggest gainers now are Finance stocks, Regional Banks and the
                                                     Big Banks.  The market is in much more danger when these groups
                                                     show weakness, as in 2007-2008, than when they show exceptional
                                                     strength.  Many of these banking stocks look forward how they
                                                     can turn somewhat higher interest rates into bigger profits.

                                                     The Big Banks-Brokerages now have a huge vested interest in seeing the DJI hit
                                                     magic number 20,000.  The publicity of that will generate lots more public trading.
                                                     It will also tend to support those Republicans who have long advocated
                                                     the privatization of Social Security.

                                                     5) Gold Stocks tell us when a financial crisis looms by virtue of their
                                                     unusual advances.  But Gold stocks now are heading steeply down.  So, Confidence
                                                     in equities and the Dollar is on the rise.  

                                                     6) The closest parallel I can find is the DJI in November 1980 just after
                                                     the Republican Reagan bear the incumbent Democrat Carter for President.
                                                     In that case, the DJI rose until the end of November when it reach its
                                                     rising resistance in a price-megaphone pattern.  We see price-megaphone
                                                     patterns here for the SP-500 and the NASDAQ.  So the DJI still has
                                                     a lot further to go on the upside to allow the SP-500 and NASDAQ
                                                     to reach the rising resistance levels that define the top of these megaphone
                                                     patterns.





                                                     7) Reagan was a transformative President.  He lowered corporate taxes
                                                     on the wealthy.  He broke unions.  He made peace with the Soviet Union. 
                                                     And where he could, he deregulated business.  But he never had a
                                                     Republican Congressional majority in both the House and the Senate like
                                                     President Trump will have. 

                                                     So, almost certainly, corporate taxes will fall sharply under Trump.  This
                                                     means Corporations will make 10%-20% higher earnings in the next year,
                                                     barring other negative developments, such as the start of an international
                                                     trade war because of new US tariffs.  This is the outlook that is moving the
                                                     the markets now.  Potentially, the stock market could go up more than
                                                     it did under Reagan and possibly match what it did under Eisenhower. .

                                                     8) The main reason Reagan's 18 months in office experienced a bear market,
                                                     I would argue, was because the Fed Chairman has pushed up Interest Rates
                                                     well above 12%!  Our situation is very different now.                                                   
 

                                  
  Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                     
 11/11/16:   Bullish MAXCPs      Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs),
                                            AMGN AMZN, FB, GOOG, JPM, NVDA (Super Stock)
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN    
   

 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
11/11/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             1             .857          .857          .857 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .972          .694          .694          .5 
INFRASTR.      .909          .909          .909          .818          .727          .454 
COAL           .888          .888          1             .777          .888          .888 
EDU            .875          1             .875          .75           .625          .625 
FINANCE        .813          .802          .758          .593          .56           .384 

INSURANC       .771          .771          .628          .4            .342          .228 
TRANSP         .758          .689          .62           .551          .586          .31 
MILITARY       .75           .711          .653          .365          .365          .25 
INDMATER       .676          .656          .617          .519          .46           .392 
GAMING         .666          .666          .555          .555          .555          .555 
JETS           .666          .75           .833          .833          .833          .583 
DOWJONES     .633          .633          .566          .433          .333          .2 
ELECTRON       .613          .523          .532          .506          .476          .339 
RETAIL         .611          .5            .333          .277          .259          .148
 
SP-100       .597          .618          .587          .474          .412          .237 
CHEM           .585          .56           .512          .402          .39           .304 
SOFTWARE       .567          .432          .447          .388          .462          .283 
COMPUTER       .555          .518          .481          .444          .407          .333 
SEMI           .551          .492          .529          .536          .514          .338 
HACKERS        .523          .523          .428          .333          .38           .19 
INDEXES        .523          .543          .523          .422          .38           .259 
NASD-100     .521          .446          .5            .414          .393          .244 
RUS-1000     .503          .497          .473          .42           .391          .26 
SP500          .496          .527          .486          .442          .397          .247 
NIFTY          .485          .514          .571          .514          .542          .314 
BIOTECH        .466          .429          .358          .195          .179          .121 
AUTO           .45           .425          .225          .225          .2            .125 
GREEN          .354          .29           .29           .29           .29           .225 
OILGAS         .354          .418          .418          .325          .308          .232 
COMODITY       .314          .385          .4            .428          .371          .314 

CHINA          .253          .177          .278          .303          .265          .164 
HOMEBLDG       .222          .222          .111          .166          .111          .055 
PIPELINE       .222          .222          .222          .111          .111          .111 
REIT           .222          .186          .191          .171          .166          .111 

FOOD           .2            .466          .6            .8            .733          .466 
SOLAR          .176          .117          .176          .352          .294          .117 
GOLD           .157          .175          .228          .175          .175          .245 
UTILITY        .152          .108          .304          .586          .478          .239 
BEVERAGE       .142          .142          .19           .38           .238          .047 
ETFS           .058          .102          .25           .382          .308          .132 
BONDFUND       0             0             .008          0             .017          .026 
HOSPITAL       0             0             0             .5            .5            0 

 


======================================================
                      
11/10/2016      Trump- Rally Brings Boom To Big Banks and 'InfraStructures'
                                                          And A "Bust" To Bonds, Foreign ETFs and Hospitals. 

                                                                    
                                          Yesterday's Sell S9 Was 'Clinched' by Negative NYSE Breadth
                                          and Reinforced by a New Peerless Sell S12.  Sell short QQQ.
                                          It already shows a falling Closing Power.  The Closing Powers
                                          for DIA, SPY and IWM are rising steeply, showing Professionals
                                          have not become net sellers in them.  Stay short Bonds.  They are
                                          in a state of collapse.  This is going to have very unsetting effects
                                          on the equities' market.  And Trump did say the stock market
                                          was a bubble quite ready to burst.



 


                                 
                                 
The DJI rose another 218  points today, but there were 227 more decliners
                                                    than advancers on the NYSE.  By Peerless rules for "clinching" a Sell S9,
                                                    this invokes yesterday's Sell S9.  Because the DJI closed 3.4% over the 21-day
                                                    ma with the Tiger Accum. Index at a -.01, Peerless also gave a Sell S12 today..
                                                    The history of combined S9/S12s in rising markets is quite bearish.  It is
                                                    also quite reliable.  Below are all the cases where this combination occurred
                                                    in rising markets since 1928.
                                                          
S9-S12s: total 24 earlier cases
                                                                              Losses and Gains on Shorting DJI on second Sell.
 
                                                                                           Losses = 3 
                                                                                           Gains 4% to +8% = 7 
                                                                                           Gains 8% to +12% = 5 
                                                                                           Gains 12% to 20% = 2 
                                                                                           Gains >20% = 3
                                                                                            Median Gain =  > +8% 

                                                             Paper Losses  
                                                            
None  = 7
                                                                                            0% to +1% =  4
                                                             
1% to +2% = 5 
                                                             
2% to +3% =  4
                                                                                             3% to +4% = 3
                                                                                             4.3%  = 1

                                        Peerless S9s and S12s in Bull Markets.
 

 
Date          Signal         DJI          Gain from    Paper
                                          Selling      Loss
                                          Short

19290130      S12            312.6         .039
19290201      S9             319.7         .06         0.8%     
19290426      S9             314.2         .066     
19290430      S12            319.3         .081        2.2%  
19290614      S9             313.7        -.047    
19290617      S12            319.3        -.029        2.9% 
19290828      S12            372.1         .436    
19290903      S9             381.2         .45         none
19340404      S12            103.2         .11    
19340412      S9             104.8         .124        1.7%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------   
19340821      S9             92.6          .036         
19340821      S12            92.6          .036        3.1%              
19340927      S9             93.4         -.02    
19341005      S12            92.9         -.026        2.6% 
19380107      S9             128.2         .039          
19380114      S12            131.8         .065        none  
19380413      S9             114.9         .048  
19380419      S12            116.3         .053        none
19561206      S9             492.7         .062     
19561206      S12            492.7         .062        1.4%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------     
19590701      S9             650.2         .019 
19590701      S12            650.2         .019        4.3%
19660106      S9             985.46        .213 
19660106      S12            985.46        .213        1.0%
 
19710826      S9             906.1         .088 
19710831      S12            898.07        .08         3.7% 
19720803      S9             947.7         .027 
19720804      S12            951.76        .032        2.3%
19730108      S9             1047.86       .114 
19730111      S12            1051.7        .118       none
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19750829      S9             835.34        .048 
19750829      S12            835.34        .048        0.4%
19870506      S9             2342.19       .052 
19870506      S12            2342.19       .052       none
19870608      S12            2351.64      -.04 
19870609      S9             2352.7       -.039       3.9%
19871001      S9             2639.2        .341 
19871002      S12            2640.99       .342       none
19980708      S9             9174.97       .168 
19980708      S12            9174.97       .168       1.8%  7/17

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
19990817      S9             11117.07      .099
19990817      S12            11117.07      .099       1.9%  8/25
20071206      S12            13619.89      .099 
20071207      S9             13625.58      .099       0.7%  12/10   
20110630      S12            12414.34      .075
20110705      S9             12569.87      .086       1.2%  7/21
20111205      S9             12097.83      .027 
20111207      S12            12196.37      .035       none  
 
=========================================================================
   S9-S12s: total 24 earlier cases
   Losses and Gains on Shorting DJI on second Sell.
   Losses = 3
   Gains 0% to +4% = 4
   Gains 4% to +8% = 7
   Gains 8% to +12% = 5
   Gains 12% to 20% = 2
   Gains >20% = 3

 

 

                                                  
 
 

                                     

                                                          Appropriately, we now see megaphone price patterns in SP-500 and NASDAQ.
                                                          These usually appear at the end of bull markets.  They show markets
                                                          out of control, rushing quickly from one extreme to another. 
                                                          Interesting, the closest parallel to the present was in 1980-1981,
                                                          when the Republican Reagan took the White House away from
                                                          the Democrat Jimmie Carter.  It took a series of wilder and wilder
                                                          swings within its megaphone (broadening top pattern) to finally
                                                          set up the Bear Market of 1981-1982.  There is one big difference.
                                                          Reagan did not command a Republican majority in the House and
                                                          the Senate.
 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses  

                                              Closest Historical Parallel to Present in 1980-1981 

                                                      

                                                          Continuing Protests and Scathing New York Times Criticisms
                                                          Of Trump Campaign Positions Warns Us How Polarized The US now is.


                                                          Trump, a minority President, can call for a national "coming together" and
                                                          a "healing of differences", but it's not clear how and if he can make that happen.
                                                          His blaming the media for the protests and accusing protestors of being
                                                          "paid professionals" does not bode well or seem seem like a good way to
                                                          bring about a new tranquility. 
                                                             

NY Times: "Donald Trump Could Put Climate Change on Course for 'Danger Zone' "

By CORAL DAVENPORT  President-elect Trump has vowed to cancel the Paris climate accord, jeopardizing what scientists say is a critical 3.6-degree irreversible temperature target.

OPINION | Op-Ed | Steven Rattner

NY Times: "Trump's Economic Prescription. First: Do Harm."

By STEVEN RATTNER  Plans for tariffs, tax breaks and immigration could push up inflation, shift more money to the wealthy, increase deficits and cost blue-collar jobs.

CBS: Riot declared in Portland, Oregon amid new wave of anti-Trump demos 

 



                                                        
                                                       MEGAPHONE PATTERNS, LIKE  DJI NOW SHOWS, WARN THAT
                                                       A BEAR MARKET IS NOT FAR AWAY.

                                                          Appropriately, we now see megaphone price patterns in SP-500 and NASDAQ.
                                                          These usually appear at the end of bull markets.  They show markets
                                                          out of control, rushing quickly from one extreme to another. 
                                                          Interesting, the closest parallel to the present was in 1980-1981,
                                                          when the Republican Reagan took the White House away from
                                                          the Democrat Jimmie Carter.  It took a series of wilder and wilder
                                                          swings within the megaphone (broadening top pattern) to finally
                                                          set up the Bear Market of 1981-1982.  There is one big difference.
                                                          Reagan did not command a Republican majority in the House and
                                                          the Senate.
 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_divisions_of_United_States_Congresses                       

 

                                                                    Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMGN AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
11/10/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1             1             .857          .857          .857          .857 
EDU            1             .875          .75           .625          .625          .75 
REGBANKS       .972          .972          .694          .694          .5            .5 
INFRA          .909          .909          .818          .727          .454          .454 
COAL           .888          1             .777          .888          .888          .888 
FINANCE        .802          .758          .593          .56           .395          .439 
INSURANC       .771          .628          .4            .342          .228          .228 
JETS           .75           .833          .833          .833          .583          .583 
MILITARY       .711          .653          .365          .365          .25           .211 
TRANSP         .689          .62           .551          .586          .31           .31 
GAMING         .666          .555          .555          .555          .555          .555
 
INDMATER       .656          .617          .519          .46           .382          .411 
DOWJONES       .633          .566          .433          .333          .2            .2 
SP-100         .618          .587          .474          .412          .237          .257 
CHEM           .56           .512          .402          .39           .304          .341 
INDEXES        .543          .523          .422          .38           .263          .259 
SP500          .527          .486          .442          .397          .249          .247 
ELECTRON       .523          .532          .506          .476          .351          .364 
HACKERS        .523          .428          .333          .38           .19           .238 
COMPUTER       .518          .481          .444          .407          .333          .222 
NIFTY          .514          .571          .514          .542          .314          .342 
RETAIL         .5            .333          .277          .259          .148          .129 

RUS-1000       .497          .473          .419          .391          .261          .253 
SEMI           .492          .529          .536          .514          .345          .389 
FOOD           .466          .6            .8            .733          .466          .4 
NASD-100       .446          .5            .414          .393          .244          .255 
SOFTWARE       .432          .447          .388          .462          .283          .268 
BIOTECH        .429          .358          .195          .179          .125          .097 
AUTO           .425          .225          .225          .2            .125          .1 
OILGAS         .418          .418          .325          .308          .244          .273 
COMODITY       .385          .4            .428          .371          .314          .342 

GREEN          .29           .29           .29           .29           .225          .225 
HOMEBLDG       .222          .111          .166          .111          .055          .111 
PIPELINE       .222          .222          .111          .111          .111          .111 
REIT           .182          .187          .167          .162          .106          .081 
CHINA          .177          .278          .303          .265          .164          .202 
GOLD           .175          .228          .175          .175          .245          .263 
BEVERAGE       .142          .19           .38           .238          .047          .095 
SOLAR          .117          .176          .352          .294          .117          .176 
UTILITY        .108          .304          .586          .478          .239          .26 
ETFS           .102          .25           .382          .308          .147          .176 
BONDFUND       0             .008          0             .017          .026          .008 
HOSPITAL       0             0             .5            .5            0             0 

 


================================================================
                  
11/9/2016                        Classic Post Presidential Rally  
                                              
   Give It More Chance To Play Out. 

                                                                    
                                          New Sell S9.  I suggest only deploying today's Sell S9 when daily NYSE decliners
                                          exceed advancers at the close over the next few days provided we do not get
                                          a new Peerless Buy signal in the interim.  

                                  
Every time that a Republican has replaced a Democrat in the White House since
                                                    1945, the DJI has made excellent short-term gains.  With a Republican majority
                                                    in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the new President Trump Administration
                                                    should be in a position to bring about much bigger changes than Obama was able to,  Unfortunately,
                                                    historically, the odds are we will be in a bear market next year.  In that connection,
                                                    note today's new Sell S9.  While this is bearish, it often takes several new Peerless
                                                    Sells to reverse a bull market and bring on a bear market.  The real news today is how
                                                    much switching of portfolio mixes is now under way.  Hospital Stocks, foreign ETFs,
                                                    Bonds are being sold and Biotechs, Military Stocks and the Elite Infrastructure Stocks
                                                    are being eagerly bought.  This has brought about a jump in trading volume.

                                                          When A Republican Replaces A Democrat.

                                      
1952 - Rally until end of year.  Then 10% Decline to June 1953.
                                                          1968 -  Rally until end of November.  Then Bear Market until May 1970.
                                                          1980 -  Rally until Thanksgiving and then zig-zags back and forth between bands until May 1981
                                                                      followed by a bear market until August 1981.
                                                          2000 - quick rally to upper band. Bear Market then began.  It did not end until March 2003.                       

                                  
A wild Trump-Rally is upon us.  Volume was the highest it has been in two months.
                                                    The DJI gained 1000 points from its low in pre-opening trading to its close.  This caused
                                                    big jumps in our Closing Powers.  The key ETFs' Closing Powers downtrends were all broken. 
                                                    Professionals are now net buyers.  The DJI closed for the second day in a row above its 65-dma. 
                                                    This last development should cancel the Sell S18.

                                                                                      New Peerless S9 - Delay Using It.

                                                    But today's breadth on the NYSE was not impressive.  There were only 312 more up than
                                                    down on the NYSE even though the DJI rose 250.  This brought us a new Peerless Sell S9.
                                                    This occurs when the DJI closes 2.4% over the 21-day ma and the P-Indicator (the 21-day ma
                                                    of NYSE Advances minus Declines) is negative.  We usually delay deploying this signal
                                                    until the NYSE decliners are greater by 24 ore more than advancers at the close.
  This is
                                                    done because sometimes the DJI and the broad market take off  and there are soon new Peerless buy
                                                    signals.  The most famous case of this was in June 1987.  I think we must delay using the
                                                    the Sell S9 here, too.  Another reason for not jumping to quickly on this Sell S9, is that
                                                    there has been only one case of a November Sell S9 in a bull market.  That was on November 14, 1980.
                                                    It did a bring a 5.3% drop in the DJIA.

                                                           DJI closed 2.4% over the 21-dma with the P-Indicator a -225.
                                                           Coupled with weak readings elsewhere, this is what brings the Sell S9.
                                                           Note the big jump in volume.







                                                    I mentioned SPY's megaphone pattern.  The NASDAQ also shows one.
                                                    Technically, this pattern develops when prices swing wildly from well-tested
                                                    falling support to the well-tested rising resistance.  This appears to
                                                    be the situation we are in now. I would not be short IWM here.  In fact, its rising much
                                                    above its neckline at 120 was where it should have been covered. 



       

                                                                                    THE BIG NEWS TODAY

                                                    The big story today is the huge amount of hasty rearranging portfolios to try to match
                                                    the new President Trump's declared priorities.  New Military and Infrastructure spending
                                                    coupled with tax cuts for business will bring a big deficit for a while.  That means more inflation
                                                    and new borrowing demand.  Both of these will bring higher interest rates.  Bonds (which we
                                                    are short) and utilites fell sharply today. 

                                                    A lot of money is being re-deployed in stock groups expected to benefit from a new Trump
                                                    Administration.  Meanwhile, hospital stocks were dumped today because of the likely end of 
                                                    Affordable Care but drug stocks did great because it was expected that they would no
                                                    longer be under Democrats' criticism for raising prices. 

                                                    Trumps' stress on the military and gun ownership also played a role in the heavy volume
                                                    switching around of portfolios.  The Morningstar Security sector (MG766)rose +10% today.
                                                    This was the biggest rise among Morningstar sectors.  The second biggest gain was Biotechs
                                                    (MG 516), which rose 8% today.  Almost as strong today were Mornngstar's Metal
                                                    Fabrication (MG 627) and Heavy Construction (MG 636).  (Download MORNSTAR from
                                                    our Tiger Data page).

                                                    I have created a special INFRAstructure group for easier tracking of these stocks.
                                                    Look at the size of the gains in the leading stocks in this group:  CAT +6.52,
                                                    EXP (Eagle Materials) + 7.21,  GVA (Granite Construction) + 5.23,
                                                    NUE (Nucorp Steel and Iron) +6.25,  STLD (Steel Dynamics) + 2.84 and
                                                    (Vulcan Materials) + 11.82.  This is the sector I would place new investments in.
                                                    There is a massive amount of infrastructure re-building that is needed.  Trump is
                                                    a builder.  This is what he wants to be his legacy.  I expect he will easily get Republican
                                                    and Democrat support for his plans.

                                                             INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AHEAD?

 
                                                                   HOSPITALS STOCKS DECLINE                                        



                                    
Links to Charts    

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMGN AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  
 

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
    Example  ".972 " = 97.2%

                                         11/9/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS       1.0           .857          .857          .857          .857          .857 
COAL           1.0           .777          .888          .888          .888          .888 
REGBANKS       .972          .694          .694          .5            .527          .472 
INFRASTRUCTURE .888          .777          .666          .555          .555          .333 
EDU            .875          .75           .625          .625          .75           .75 
JETS           .833          .833          .833          .583          .583          .583 
FINANCE        .758          .593          .56           .395          .439          .45 
MILITARY       .653          .365          .365          .25           .23           .25 

INSURANC       .628          .4            .342          .228          .228          .257 
TRANSP         .62           .551          .586          .31           .31           .344 
INDMATER       .617          .519          .46           .382          .411          .372 
FOOD           .6            .8            .733          .466          .4            .533 

SP-100         .587          .474          .412          .237          .247          .309 
NIFTY          .571          .514          .542          .314          .342          .371 
DOWJONES       .566          .433          .333          .2            .2            .233 
GAMING         .555          .555          .555          .555          .555          .555 
ELECTRON       .532          .506          .476          .351          .36           .364 
SEMI           .529          .536          .514          .345          .382          .367 
INDEXES        .523          .422          .38           .263          .259          .255 
CHEM           .512          .402          .39           .304          .329          .353 
NASD-100       .5            .414          .393          .244          .255          .297 

SP500          .486          .442          .397          .249          .245          .273 
COMPUTER       .481          .444          .407          .333          .222          .37 
RUS-1000       .473          .419          .391          .261          .252          .266 
SOFTWARE       .447          .388          .462          .283          .268          .328 
HACKERS        .428          .333          .38           .19           .238          .238 
OILGAS         .418          .325          .308          .244          .273          .273 
COMODITY       .4            .428          .371          .314          .342          .342 
BIOTECH        .358(big jump).195          .179          .125          .097          .125 
RETAIL         .333          .277          .259          .148          .129          .148 
ALL STOCKS     .33

UTILITY        .304          .586          .478          .239          .26           .173 
GREEN          .29           .29           .29           .225          .225          .29 
CHINA          .278          .303          .265          .164          .202          .177 
ETFS           .25           .382          .308          .147          .176          .191 
GOLD           .228          .175          .175          .245          .263          .157 
AUTO           .225          .225          .2            .125          .1            .15 
PIPELINE       .222          .111          .111          .111          .111          .111 
REIT           .191          .171          .166          .111          .08           .075 
BEVERAGE       .19           .38           .238          .047          .095          .095 
SOLAR          .176          .352          .294          .117          .176          .294 
HOMEBLDG       .111          .166          .111          .055          .111          .055 
BONDFUND       .008          0             .017          .025          .008          .008 
HOSPITAL       0             .5            .5            0             0             0 


==================================================================
                  
11/8/2016      Now we know why the technicals were so weak: i.e., why we have a Sell S18 from
                                                     Peerless, why the Tiger Closing Power and Day Traders Tool are in clear downtrends,
                                                     why fewer than 33% of all stocks are below their 65-dma and why the Russell-2000 (IWM)
                                                     has completed such an obviously bearish head and shoulders pattern.  In over-night trading,
                                                     the DJI fell to 17500 and the lower band.  The pollsters and pundits didn't just get the
                                                     outcome of the Presidential wrong, they got it massively wrong.  Trump has won the Electoral
                                                     College in a landslide.    And, below the radar-screen for most, short-term interest rates made
                                                     another new high today.  This will also weight on the market.

                                                     Stay short IWM for now.  We need to see how the market closes tomorrow.  Surprises
                                                     and whip-saws like this often take at least a week to play out.  See below how the unexpected
                                                     victory of Truman over Dewey affected the market.

                                                     What does the Trump victory mean?  Surely it will help RSX (Russia) and hurt the Peso
                                                     and the Mexican ETFs.  Otherwise, we will need some time to assess the repercussions.



                                                                  IWM's top formation.
                                                        

                                                                                                            
                                      What happens when a Republican
                                      takes over the White House from a Democrat?


                                                     There is a fairly clear pattern here.  The market usually rallies immediately
                                                     after the Election but then  slumps badly in the next year.

                                                          1920 - A bear market had already begun...no rally until Mid-December. 
                                                          1952 - rally until end of year.
                                                          1968 - rally until end of November.
                                                          1980 - rally until Thanksgiving and then zig-zags back and forth.
                                                          2000 - quick rally to upper band.
 

1920
 
1952
1968
1980
2000



                                                        Stay short the weakest Bonds.  


                            
  Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMGN AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                    
Hillary's loss should not have come as such a surprise.  Why else are coal stocks
                                                     so strong and solar energy stocks so weak?  After all these years, I should have believed the
                                                     technicals not the "talking heads" on TV.   Usually I don't listen to them but they
                                                     were so non-stop, so ubiquitous and so sure of their polls.  Just like in the Brexit vote,
                                                     pollsters mis-sampled and failed to fathom the discontent with the Establishment.
                                                     It's easy now to see that for many of the powerless, forgotten and disenfranchised, voting
                                                     for Trump was seen as one of the few ways they could strike back at the Establishment.  So,
                                                     it should not have been such a surprise. 

                                                     I did mention that no Democrat has ever succeeded a living Democrat to the White House. 
                                                     This can't be a coincidence.  Most of all, I should known better.  Growing up in the MidWest,
                                                     I should never have underestimated the anger felt towards the Wall Street-Democrats
                                                     who have long put their own free trade profits ahead of Main Street.   Below is a picture of
                                                     an abandoned factory near where I grew up in Cincinnati.

                                                           
                                                                               
Empty factory floor at Stearns and Foster in Cincinnati.  


                                            View RANKING OF ALL KEY DIRECTORIES FOR PCT OF THEIR STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 65-DMA.

                                                    (New Tiger software lets you rank any set of directories you may wish to
                                                    and get a report like the one below.  Steps to take.  Go to TigerSoft ESP Page
                                                    and download latest Peerless update (includes the new Peerless S18 and
                                                    Ranking as shown below.  If you do not have an ESP Subscription and would
                                                    like this update, otherwise, send me an email.  Hotline subscribers who have TigerSoft
                                                    may get this update for $85.00.)  

                                                               Directions

                                                   Create
c:\peerless\KEYDIRS.txt  with Notepad/Windows.
                                                   This is your editable list of your Tiger directories to be ranked. 
                                                   EDIT it as needed.  Be sure that all Tiger directories designated in it
                                                   are updated to these latest date.  When opened, it should look something like the
                                                   one shown below.  Use only the names of the updated Directories.  Do not
                                                   insert prefix or suffix.  All the names listed in it should be left-justified.

                                                                FINANCE
                                                                                     ETFS
                                                                                     GOLD
                                                                                     OILGAS
                                                                                     UTILITY

                                                               

                                                   With the new Peerless installed, run the new Directory Ranker with
                                                   these Tiger/Peerless commands:                                                  
                                                     Peercomm + Charts-2016 + RunSetups + Rank Directories for Pct. over 65-dma.

                                                                    
Look at results by opening in WINDOWS, the new created
                                                    C:\PEERLESS\RANKDIRS.txt
                            

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                        
        
                   11/7/2016        Which Will Win Out Here?  Politics or Technicals?  My guess is that we will
                                           soon see the DJI charge up to the upper 3% band, assuming Hillary wins.  There we
                                           may get a Sell S9/S12.  The still extant Peerless S18 warns, however, not to
                                           trust the rally.  Be very selective.  (See the recommendations of yesterday.)
                                           Watch the Short-Term Interest Rates' charts.  It appears that the Fed will be
                                           raising rates in December.  See below their new high made today.
                                           In all the excitement of the Elections, not many noticed this bearish development.
                                           Accordingly, too, Bonds did not rise today.



                                           Since 1945, when a Democrat is elected the market usually makes a good run
                                           upwards in November after the Election and another even bigger advance in the
                                           following year.  The odds are 5:2 historically of this happening.  But is Hillary
                                           popular enough to bring on a burst of partisan buying?   She is very popular where
                                           it counts:
namely, at the biggest Wall Street banks (where 85.7% of them are
                                           well above their 65-dma compared to only 31% of all stocks) and with many of
                                           the biggest corporations, like Boeing (which has out-performed the DJI by 9%
                                           over the last 50 trading days). GS and BA are among the highest priced and
                                           thus most weighted DJI-30 components.                                         

                                           Were it not Presidential Election time, the big +2% DJI gain today would seem
                                           like a "relief" rally in a bear market, given that the SP-500 had just fallen 9 straight
                                           days.  As is often true in a bear market, volume today was less on the big up-day
                                           than on Friday on the NYSE.  From a Peerless technical viewpoint, we need much
                                           more proof that this is the start of a much bigger rally.  All the Key Peerless
                                           Indicators are quite negative despite the DJI's being 0.7% over its 21-day
                                           ma.  See below the key values at the top of the Peerless DJI chart for today.
                                           A quick, additional 1.8% DJI gain would almost certainly bring a bearish Sell S9/S12.

                                           The SPY chart shows that that key ETF's Closing Power and the
                                           Tiger Day Traders' Tool are still falling.  But we do see a potential "megaphone"
                                           or broadening pattern in the SPY chart.  And we know that towards the end of bull
                                           markets, the tops are made from Opening Power strength with the Closing Power
                                           lagging.  See the SPY charts for 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2015
                                           So, perhaps, a Hillary victory will bring about a big enough partisan celebration
                                           to produce a Peerless Sell at the upper band.  Wall Street and most big corporations
                                           should be very pleased to have as President someone who believes in back-room
                                           private deals and readily accepts large contributions to a family foundation in exchange
                                           for favors to businesses. 

                                           It will be fascinating to see her Cabinet choices.  Will they also be the ones favored
                                           by Citi-Bank (as happened in 2008 with Obama just elected) or by Goldman Sachs
                                           (whose stock is very strong now that Hillary looks like the winner.  (Thank you
                                           Wiki-Leaks (and Russia, too, maybe) for letting us see how political sausages are really
                                           made with the Clintons in power...
Wikileaks has released 35,594 Podesta emails since
                                           October 7t
h http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/bill-clinton-inc-foundation-wikileaks-emails/ 
                                          
Oct 28, 2016 - Podesta's hacked email contained foundation details...Hillary Clinton's State Department emails
                                           points to a "rampant pay-to-play culture".  Do a Google search of Clinton and "Pay for Play".

                                           1) WIKILEAKS: Podesta Called Foreign Money 'Currying Favor',
                                           2) 124 References to 'Pay for Play' and 'Quid Pro'
                                           3) Clinton Foundation's 'Pay-To-Play' With Ukraine Oligarch

  )





                                                       Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMGN AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

                                            ViewRANKING OF ALL KEY DIRECTORIES FOR PCT OF THEIR STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 65-DMA.

                                                    (New Tiger software lets you rank any set of directories you may wish to
                                                    and get a report like the one below.  Steps to take.  Go to TigerSoft ESP Page
                                                    and download latest Peerless update (includes the new Peerless S18 and
                                                    Ranking as shown below.  If you do not have an ESP Subscription and would
                                                    like this update, otherwise, send me an email.  Hotline subscribers who have TigerSoft
                                                    may get this update for $85.00.)  

                                                               Directions

                                                   Create
c:\peerless\KEYDIRS.txt  with Notepad/Windows.
                                                   This is your editable list of your Tiger directories to be ranked. 
                                                   EDIT it as needed.  Be sure that all Tiger directories designated in it
                                                   are updated to these latest date.  When opened, it should look something like the
                                                   one shown below.  Use only the names of the updated Directories.  Do not
                                                   insert prefix or suffix.  All the names listed in it should be left-justified.

                                                                FINANCE
                                                                                     ETFS
                                                                                     GOLD
                                                                                     OILGAS
                                                                                     UTILITY

                                                               

                                                   With the new Peerless installed, run the new Directory Ranker with
                                                   these Tiger/Peerless commands:                                                  
                                                     Peercomm + Charts-2016 + RunSetups + Rank Directories for Pct. over 65-dma.

                                                                    
Look at results by opening in WINDOWS, the new created
                                                    C:\PEERLESS\RANKDIRS.txt
                            


                                                              
====================================================================================================

                   11/4/2016                 The Hillary Victory Rally appears to have begun a day early.  Wikileaks shows just how
                                                    important a Clinton victory is to many very big corporations and banks.  But I
                                                    still trust our technical indicators.  I think that we will mostly have to wait a few
                                                    days to see if the Closing Power downtrend-lines are violated to Buy.  This is
                                                    because of how pronounced has been the recent daily pattern of Big Money selling
                                                    soon after nice early gains.  Let's see if the same pattern reappears over the next
                                                    few days.  

                                                          What Happens To DJI When Democrat Wins White House?

                                                    Since World War II, there have been 5 cases of a market rally into the middle
                                                    of November or later when a Democrat was elected and two cases where the
                                                    market declined significantly.   In 1960, 1964, 1992, 1996 and 2012, a Democrat
                                                    victory brought very tradable DJI rallies for at least three months into the
                                                    following year.  So, I think that we do not want to be stubbornly bearish here.
                                                    We should also notice that SPY and IWM are recovering from rising 200-day
                                                    moving averages.  This should help them tomorrow

                                                             1948  DJI fell until November 30th.  It rallied feebly five weeks and
                                                             then dropped to a series of new lows until mid June 1949.
                                                             1960  DJI advanced to Nov. 10th, pulled back a little and rose strongly
                                                             until mid-May
.
                                                             1964  DJI advanced to Nov. 18th, then fell back 4% only to then rise
                                                             strongly again until mid-May
.
                                                             1976  DJI fell 2% in week after the Election and then rallied
                                                             back nearly to its yearly highs by late December.
                                                            
1992  DJI advanced to Dec. 24th, then fell back 2% only to then rise
                                                             strongly again until the end of May.
                                                            
1996  DJI advanced to Nov. 25th, then fell back 4% only to then rise
                                                             strongly again until the end of March 10th.
                                                            
2012  DJI fell below lower 3.5% band on November 15th. It then
                                                             rallied, making new highs until the end of May.
                                                             back nearly to its yearly highs by late December.
                                                            
 




                                                   

                                                    With the S18 operative, let's not go long DIA or SPY until the DJI closes
                                                    back above 18300 (where its falling 65-dma is).  I would also want the
                                                    OBVPct Indicator to turn clearly positive. (above +.10). 






                                                    Since we have nice profits in the Biotechs, cover most of them by tomorrow's close
                                                    unless the DJI completely loses all its gains.  I have posted some of the most
                                                    Bullish MAXCPs I could find this weekend, for those who want to stocks to go long
                                                    for the likely "Partisian Bounce".  Let's stay short IWM (below).  Its head/shoulders pattern
                                                    still looks menacing.  It could rally briefly to 119-120 and then turn back down
                                                    again because the odds still favor a FED boost in interest rates in December.
                                                    See how close short-term rates are to their highs.  So let's also hold the "Bearish MINCP"
                                                    Bonds short.



                                                                      
              
                                                                                      Bullish News
            

                                                   
The British Supreme Court's voiding the popular vote for Brexit is helping drive a
                                                    much higher opening.  Right now,  six hours before the Opening, the DJI is up +235.
                                                    The other big news is that the FBI has exonerated Hillary this weekend.  No charges will
                                                    be brought against her for mishandling classified documents by storing them on
                                                    her private server.  That seems to have been the last barrier to her re-election. 
                                                    So she should win easily, despite widespread public distrust. 

                                                                        Pay-for-Play Makes Wall Street Happy.
 
                                                    A Hillary victory is tremendously important to the Wall Street establishment, to the
                                                    many big corporations that she, her husband and John Podesta (campaign manager)
                                                    have reciprocating ties with and to the mass media that has supported her
                                                    all along.  So, if you liked Obama's stock market, you should like Hillary's too.
                                                    Big money will be readily accommodated.   This becomes crystal when you
                                                    read some of the many Wikileaks about the Clinton's "Pay for Play."  No
                                                    wonder, she does not like Russia's Putin.  Listen to a youtube report from
                                                    one the American journalists using RT.com.  By the way, Wikleaks denies that Russia
                                                    provided the documents on
https://wikileaks.org/.    It would have taken professional
                                                    hackers to get into Podesta's account.  He used his name and the password "PASSWORD"
                                                    to get his emails.
                                                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fat63bqvG8

                                                                                Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN                                 


                                                
                                               
                                                   RANKING OF ALL KEY DIRECTORIES FOR PCT OF THEIR STOCKS
                                                                                    ABOVE THEIR 65-DMA.

                                                   (New Tiger software lets you rank any set of directories you may wish to
                                                   and get a report like the one below.  Steps to take.  Go to TigerSoft ESP Page
                                                   and download latest Peerless update (includes the new Peerless S18 and
                                                   Ranking as shown below.  If you do not have an ESP Subscription and would
                                                   like this update, otherwise, send me an email.  Hotline subscribers who have TigerSoft
                                                   may get this update for $85.00.)

                                                                                           Directions

                                                   Create
c:\peerless\KEYDIRS.txt  with Notepad/Windows.
                                                   This is your editable list of your Tiger directories to be ranked. 
                                                   EDIT it as needed.  Be sure that all Tiger directories designated in it
                                                   are updated to these latest date.  When opened, it should look something like the
                                                   one shown below.  Use only the names of the updated Directories.  Do not
                                                   insert prefix or suffix.  All the names listed in it should be left-justified.

                                                                FINANCE
                                                                                     ETFS
                                                                                     GOLD
                                                                                     OILGAS
                                                                                     UTILITY

                                                               

                                                   With the new Peerless installed, run the new Directory Ranker with
                                                   these Tiger/Peerless commands:                                                  
                                                     Peercomm + Charts-2016 + RunSetups + Rank Directories for Pct. over 65-dma.

                                                                    
Look at results by opening in WINDOWS, the new created
                                                    C:\PEERLESS\RANKDIRS.txt

 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED ON PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
              11/4/16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory     Current       day-1         day-2         day-3         day-4         day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL           .888          .888          .888          1             .888          .888 
BIGBANKS       .857          .857          .857          .857          .857          .857 
EDU            .625          .75           .75           .625          .625          .75 
JETS           .583          .583          .583          .666          .583          .583 
GAMING         .555          .555          .555          .666          .555          .555 
REGBANKS       .5            .527          .472          .611          .666          .611
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
FOOD           .466          .4            .533          .466          .6            .666 
FINANCE        .395          .439          .461          .516          .593          .626 
INDMATER       .382          .411          .372          .411          .48           .46 
ELECTRON       .357          .365          .387          .421          .472          .417 
SEMI           .345          .382          .389          .441          .485          .433 
COMPUTER       .333          .222          .37           .333          .407          .37 
COMODITY       .314          .342          .371          .385          .4            .585 
NIFTY          .314          .342          .371          .4            .457          .4 
TRANSP         .31           .31           .344          .379          .413          .517 
CHEM           .304          .329          .353          .365          .451          .414 
SOFTWARE       .283          .268          .328          .432          .417          .417 
INDEXES        .263          .259          .263          .33           .376          .338 
RUS-1000       .262          .253          .268          .303          .351          .316 
MILITARY       .25           .23           .25           .307          .365          .346 
SP-500         .249          .245          .275          .308          .361          .326 
GOLD           .245          .263          .157          .175          .14           .087 
NASD-100       .244          .255          .297          .319          .404          .351 
OILGAS         .244          .273          .273          .354          .366          .465 
UTILITY        .239          .26           .173          .326          .521          .326 
SP-100         .237          .247          .309          .34           .412          .371 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL STOCKS     .23           .23
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INSURANC       .228          .228          .257          .257          .342          .285 
GREEN          .225          .225          .29           .322          .322          .29 
DOWJONES-30    .2            .2            .233          .266          .333          .333 
HACKERS        .19           .238          .238          .333          .333          .333 
CHINA          .164          .202          .177          .227          .215          .379 
RETAIL         .148          .129          .148          .148          .148          .148 
ETFS           .147          .176          .191          .308          .397          .352 
BIOTECH        .128          .101          .125          .165          .165          .179 
AUTO           .125          .1            .15           .2            .25           .175 
SOLAR          .117          .176          .294          .294          .294          .235 
PIPELINE       .111          .111          .111          .111          .222          .333 
REIT           .111          .08           .075          .101          .126          .095 
HOMEBLDG       .055          .111          .055          .111          .055          .111 
BEVERAGE       .047          .095          .095          .095          .19           .19 
BONDFUND       .025          .008          .008          .017          .025          .017 

 

                
 
                 
 

==================================================================================================
                                    11/3/2016   The DJI held at its support but the NASDAQ and SP-500 did not.
                                                       A weak DJI rally "should" take place.  But our short-term indicators
                                                       and the Hourly DISI/OBV keep falling.  Stay short  the weak biotechs
                                                       and IWM as well as the Bonds.  Stick with the Sell S18 for now.

                                                      
Hillary Clinton will probably win.  The "Establishment" will be much
                                                       relieved.  So, there should be bounce from that.  The S&P-500 has
                                                       now fallen for 7 straight days.  And, by conventional measures, the
                                                       market is oversold.  But, fear of what higher rates will do to the stock
                                                       market is also operating here.  Tomorrow's Jobs numbers will, thus,
                                                       be quite important.  Again, it will be a case of 'good numbers'
                                                       (above 200,000) being 'bad'.
                                                       See
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mt


                                                      
                                                       Not many people remember 1948 when the anti-Wall Street Truman
                                                       surprised Dewey and all the pundits and won the Election.  The DJI fell
                                                       from 189.8 on the day before the Election to 173.9 a few days later.  So, I would
                                                       hold something back here rather than being fully short.                                                           
     

                                                               The DJI is holding at support.  A breakdown here
                                                               would likely cause a decline by it to 17400.  A breakdown
                                                               is strongly suggested by the three full months of
                                                               negative (red) OBVPct.  Big money Selling on all Rallies
                                                               keeps blunting and stopping all rallies. Why is Big Money
                                                               so eager to sell?  Waiting to find out why is not a great plan.
                                                              




                                                                   Breakdowns in SP-500 and NASDAQ
                                                                   produce over-head resistance.  This will work
                                                                   against any good rally developing.



                                                    Tiger's Index of Indexes 


                                                                     Killer Short Selling Techniques:
                                                                
   It's As Easy as 1,2,3


                                                      My new study of the 16 biggest decliners since mid August shows how
                                                       important it is for short sellers to watch for the the combination of
                                                         1) Tiger S9s (Insider selling into strength) followed by
                                                         2) Tiger S145s (Big Money hurriedly dumping and then
                                                         3)  a break in a rising Closing Power (showing that Professionals have
                                                     shifted and are net Sellers.)  This is mentioned in my Killer Short Sales.
                                                     But it will help to look back at the the biggest decliners of 2010, 2011, 2012.
                                                     .... and see how well this cluster works.
   If we get involved in another
                                                     bear market, selling short these types of stocks will make a big difference. 

                                 

                                                                 Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE    NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ     SPY   IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN   
                                  

                                                     Pct of Different Groups over 65-dma Ranked
                    

                                          11/3           11/2             11/1               10/31             10/28              10/27           10/26             10/25            
          --------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Big Banks              85.7%         85.7%          85.7%          85.7%          85.7%           85.7%          85.7%           85.7%                             
                                                 
          Regional Banks     52.8%        47.1%           61.1%          66.7%         61.1%           72.2%            69.5
          Finance                  44.0%        46.7%            52.2%           60.0%         63.3%           68.9%           68.1

                                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 
         Semi-C                     38.2%        39.0%           44.4 %           48.9%           44.9%           50.7%          51.5%           56.6%  
        
Electronics               36.6%       38.7%            42.3%    
      
  Computers               22.2%       37.0%            33.3%             40.7%            37.3%           40.7%          40.7%          40.7%    
         Software                  26.9%       32.8%            41.8%             43.3%           41.8%            41.8%           37.3%         44.8% 

                                 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       
NASDAQ-100          25.5%       29.5%            31.9%           40.4%            36.2%           38.3%          40.4%          42.6 
       
ALL                          23.0%        24.0%            28.0%             32.0%          31.0%            33.0%           36.0%            39.0%
      
 OIL/GAS                  27.3%        27.3%             5.5%              36.6%             46.5%          54.1%         57.9%            57.9% 
      
 SP-500                      24.5%       27.6%             30.9%             36.1%             32.9%           32.0%           34.5%            34.3%                   
        Rus-1000                  25.4%       26.8%             30.4%            35.1%             31.9%            32.1%           35.0%          36.1%       
        Military                    23.1%        25.0%            30.8%            36.5%            38.7%            38.7%         32.7%          26.9% 
       
DJIA-30                   17.0%        23.3%             26.7%            33%              33.3%            36.7%            33%              33% 
        Utilities                     26.1%       23.3%             36.2%             52%              28.3%           38.6%
                                 
                              
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       
Foreign ETFs         17.6%      19.1%            30.9%             39.7%           42.6%           42.6%          51.5%            58.8%              
        Junk Bonds            11.1%      16.7%            16.7%          22.2%         52.6%           68.4%          78.9%              84.2%                              
        Gold                         26.3%         15.8%           17.5%           14.0%              8.8%              7.0%            5.3%              8.8%              
        Autos                       10.0%         15.0%            20.0%            25.0%            17.5%           22.5%           32.5%             27.5% 
       
Retail                       13.0%        14.8%            14.8%            14.8%             14.8%            18.5%           20.4%                       
        Biotechs                   10.1%         12.6%           16.7%            16.7%            18.1%           22%            22.9%             26.0%                              
                                                   
                                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 
         REITs                     8.1%           7.6%             10.1%           12.6%              9.6%            10.6%           16.2%             22.6%     
         HomeBldg              11.1%          5.6%              5.6%             5.6%             11.8%              5.6%            5.6%              5.6%                   
         Bonds                      0.9%           0.9%              1.7%            2.6%                3.4%               3.4%            4.3%              4.3%                    

                                         4 rose        1 rose              1 rose            11 rose             4 rose             4 rose           2 rose            0 rose              
                                        
17 fell        18 fell              19 fell              8 fell              17 fell              14 fell          10 fell             15 fell   

                 

 
                         
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                      
                                   11/2/2016   Hillary will probably win and one would think that there will be a bounce.  That,
                                                      at least, is what the pundits are saying.  Unfortunately, this is not what
                                                      the falling technical indicators are suggesting.  The intermediate-term trend
                                                      is still down.                                                       

                                                      The DJI, NASDAQ, SPY (SP-500s) and FAS (financials) have each fallen today
                                                      to their intermediate-term support-levels.  A bounce is certainly possible.
                                                      But the key ETFs' Closing Powers, Traders Tools, 5-day mvg. avgs., IP21s and
                                                      the Hourly DJI's DISI/OBV are all falling.  The burden of proof must be
                                                      left to the bulls.  Even if there is a jump early in the day, too many times recently
                                                      has renewed Big Money selling come in to squelch and suppress rallies early
                                                      in the day.  Certainly, there is more risk than rewards if they open higher.  That is
                                                      the clear message given by the plunging ETFs' Day Traders' Tools. So, it seems
                                                      better to trust the un-reversed Peerless Sell S18 and stay short  IWM, Bonds
                                                      and weak (MINCP) biotechs. 


                                                      If these four indexes and ETFs do breakdown, classic chart theory suggests
                                                      there will be an additional decline, at a minimum, by the number of points in the height of
                                                      these patterns.  See the charts below.  I would think that 17100 will be better support
                                                      in the case of the DJI while the price uptrend-line for the NASDAQ may come into
                                                      play before the "minimum" objective is reached.

                                                                  Biggest Decliners since DJI Peaked on 8/15/2016

                                                      16 stocks above $5.00 fell by more than 52% in the last 56 trading days.
                                                      All but 3 or 4 were biotechs.  I will post a down-loadable file with these 16 stocks
                                                      for further study on the Tiger Data Page and discuss it more here this weekend.
                                                      The biggest plungers were NVAX (-82%) and ADPT (-80%).



 

                                                     DJI - 17900-18400 TRADING RANGE.
                                                     A breakdown would set up a minimum target of  17400.

                                                     NASDAQ - Test of uptrend-line seems likely.
                                                     SPY

                                                     FAS
 

 


                                                     

                                                                        Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE  NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     QQQ       IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN   
                                  

                                                     Pct of Different Groups over 65-dma Ranked

                          
Only the Big Banks here have more of their components still above the 65-dma.
                                  This may keep the market from starting a bear market like the one of 2008, but
                                  it shows  there is no real leadership for much of a post-Election bounce.
 

                                                             11/2             11/1               10/31             10/28              10/27           10/26             10/25            
                                                     -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Big Banks         85.7%            85.7%          85.7%          85.7%           85.7%          85.7%           85.7%                             
                                                 
                                  Regional Banks  47.1%          61.1%          66.7%         61.1%           72.2%            69.5
                                  Finance            46.7%             52.2%           60.0%         63.3%           68.9%           68.1

                                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 
                                 Semi-C               39.0%            44.4 %           48.9%           44.9%           50.7%          51.5%           56.6%  
                                
Electronics         38.7%            42.3%    
                              
  Computers         37.0%           33.3%             40.7%            37.3%           40.7%          40.7%          40.7%    
                                 Software             32.8%            41.8%             43.3%           41.8%            41.8%           37.3%         44.8% 

                                 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                
NASDAQ-100   29.5%           31.9%           40.4%            36.2%           38.3%          40.4%          42.6 
                                
ALL                   28.0%            28.0%             32.0%          31.0%            33.0%           36.0%            39.0%
                               
 OIL/GAS          27.3%            5.5%              36.6%             46.5%          54.1%         57.9%            57.9% 
                               
 SP-500               27.6%            30.9%             36.1%             32.9%           32.0%           34.5%            34.3%                   
                                 Rus-1000           26.8%            30.4%            35.1%             31.9%            32.1%           35.0%          36.1%       
                                 Military             25.0%            30.8%            36.5%            38.7%            38.7%         32.7%          26.9% 
                                 
DJIA-30            23.3%             26.7%            33%              33.3%            36.7%            33%              33% 
 
                                 Utilities             23.3%            36.2%             52%              28.3%           38.6%
                                 
                              
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          
         
                                 
                                
Foreign ETFs    19.1%          30.9%             39.7%           42.6%           42.6%          51.5%            58.8%              
                                 Junk Bonds      16.7%           16.7%          22.2%         52.6%           68.4%          78.9%              84.2%                              
                                 Gold                   15.8%           17.5%           14.0%              8.8%              7.0%            5.3%              8.8%              
                                 Autos                15.0%             20.0%            25.0%            17.5%           22.5%           32.5%             27.5% 


                                
Retail                 14.8%          14.8%            14.8%             14.8%            18.5%           20.4%                       
                                 Biotechs            12.6%           16.7%            16.7%            18.1%           22%            22.9%             26.0%                              
                                                   
                                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 
                                  REITs                 7.6%            10.1%           12.6%              9.6%            10.6%           16.2%             22.6%     
                                  HomeBldg          5.6%              5.6%             5.6%             11.8%              5.6%            5.6%              5.6%                   
                                  Bonds                 0.0%             1.7%            2.6%                3.4%               3.4%            4.3%              4.3%                    

                                                            1 rose           1 rose            11 rose             4 rose             4 rose           2 rose            0 rose              
                                                          
18 fell           19 fell              8 fell              17 fell              14 fell          10 fell             15 fell   

                                                        Tiger's Index of Indexes
                                                         
============================================================================================


                          11/1/2016           Another test of 18000 tomorrow.  The Sell S18, falling Closing Powers, IP21s
                                                     and the very negative OBVPct on the DJI tell us that the 18000 support is
                                                     not likely to hold for long.  Watch to see if the DJI-30 market makers attempt another
                                                     rally.  I would interpret this as one more sign of desperation, where they
                                                     seek to conceal the gathering technical weakness in the market, in part
                                                     to help the Clinton candidacy and in part to permit more Big Money
                                                     distribution.  

                                                     Stay short Bonds, Biotech Bearish MINCPs and IWM.

                                                                    Support on DJI appears down to 17900.
                                                                    Below that, probably 17300.




                                                             
                                                          Falling Tiger Indicators are Bearish for SPY:
                                                          IP21, Closing Power, Tiger Day Traders' Tool


                                 
Completion of the Head/Shoulders (shown below) and the turning down of the
                                  Opening Power will bring a drop to lower band at 204. 










                                                                   More and More Stocks Drop below key 65-dma Support

                                                     We are told that the declines owes to Trump's rising poll numbers.
                                                     In that case, a Clinton will next week should bring a rally.  But from
                                                     what group?  Only a handful of Coal Stocks,  Regional Banks and the Big Banks show
                                                     more than 60% of their stocks above the 65-dma.  The DJI-30's percentage is now
                                                     down to 26.7%.  All stocks/ETFs percentage now stand at 28%, a drop of 4% today.
                                                     Nor would I expect much from technology stocks.  This key percentage
                                                     plunged from 40.4% to 31.9% for the QQQ-100

                                                     Today's weakness was widespread.  But I was struck by how the recent weakness
                                                     in Oil Stocks has been coupled with a further sharp drop in Foreign ETFs,  which dovetails with
                                                     the plunge by Junk Bonds below their rising 65-dma.  The brief bounce in Utilities ended
                                                     today and short-term rates are near their highs again, all because the Fed is expected to finally
                                                     raise rates in December.


                                                             Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE  NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     SPY    QQQ       IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN   

                                                              Pct of Different Groups over 65-dma Ranked
 

                                                          11/1                 10/31             10/28              10/27           10/26             10/25            
                                                     ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Big Banks       85.7%             85.7%          85.7%           85.7%          85.7%           85.7%                             
                                                 
                                  Regional Banks  61.1%         66.7%         61.1%           72.2%            69.5
                                  Finance             52.2%             60.0%         63.3%           68.9%           68.1

                                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 
                                 Semi-C               44.4 %           48.9%           44.9%           50.7%          51.5%           56.6%  
                                
Electronics        42.3%       
                                 Software            41.8%             43.3%           41.8%            41.8%           37.3%         44.8% 
                               
 
                                 Utilities             36.2%             52%            28.3%           38.6%
                                  OIL/GAS         35.5%              36.6%             46.5%           54.1%         57.9%            57.9%  
                              
   Computers        33.3%             40.7%            37.3%           40.7%          40.7%          40.7% 

                               
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                
 NASDAQ-100   31.9%           40.4%            36.2%           38.3%          40.4%          42.6                    
                                 Military            30.8%             36.5%            38.7%            38.7%            32.7%          26.9%   
                                
Foreign ETFs    30.9%             39.7%           42.6%           42.6%          51.5%            58.8%              
                                 SP-500              30.9%             36.1%             32.9%           32.0%           34.5%            34.3%                   
                                 Rus-1000          30.4%            35.1%             31.9%            32.1%           35.0%          36.1%                             
                                                     
                                 DJIA-30           26.7%             33%              33.3%            36.7%            33%              33%                          
                                 ALL                  28.0%             32.0%          31.0%            33.0%           36.0%            39.0%          
                                 Autos                 20.0%            25.0%            17.5%           22.5%           32.5%             27.5%   
                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                
Junk Bonds      16.7%          22.2%         52.6%           68.4%          78.9%              84.2%                            
                                 Biotechs            16.7%            16.7%            18.1%           22%            22.9%             26.0%                              
                                                   
                                 Retail                14.8%            14.8%             14.8%            18.5%           20.4%
                                 Gold                   17.5%           14.0%              8.8%              7.0%            5.3%              8.8%                    
                                 REITs               10.1%           12.6%              9.6%            10.6%           16.2%             22.6%             

                                           
                                HomeBldg           5.6%             5.6%             11.8%              5.6%            5.6%              5.6%                   
                                Bonds                  1.7%            2.6%                3.4%              3.4%            4.3%              4.3%                    

                                                            1rose            11rose             4rose               4rose           2rose              0rose              
                                                         
19 fell              8 fell              17 fell              14 fell          10 fell             15 fell   


           
 
=============================================================================================

                          10/31/2016         The Election may still bring a bounce.  But it will likely be quite
                                                     limited.  It is unlikely that the Democrats will gain control of the House
                                                     of Representatives.  The "checks and balances" of American Government
                                                     should still be working their conservative magic.  If you liked the last four years,
                                                     we should see more of the same, except that the FED seems obliged soon
                                                     to raise rates by a token amount.  Either, the stock market is not
                                                     really scared by this prospect or the Fed has cried "Wolf" too often
                                                     and most traders do not believe the FED will do anything significant.



                                                  
                                                     The Sell S18 still stands.  Watch the DJI's OP21-OBVPct.  As long as it stays
                                                     negative, the odds are greater that there will be a downside breakdown
                                                     below 18000.  And history shows that whichever way the DJI first jumps
                                                     from the trading range, it is apt to continue to move.


                                                     The short-term indicators show Professionals are net sellers and Big Money
                                                     is getting out on all modest rallies.  The Closing Powers are all falling for the key
                                                     ETFs and the Accumulation Index for the DJI remains quite negative, as
                                                     does the Tiger ObvPct Indicator.   The Hourly DJI's DISI/OBV is still
                                                     falling. 



                                                     There may have been a warning today from another source.  Junk Bonds
                                                     sold off sharply for the second trading day in a row.  Some consider this a bearish sign,
                                                     showing more threats of insolvency from Sovereign Debt and another decline
                                                     in Oil Prices.  Junk bonds had been steadily rallying for 8 months.  I personally
                                                     would not make too much of this.  Utilities showed unusual strength with many
                                                     of the better grade ones climbing back above their 65-dma.



                                                     While today saw 100 more up than down on the NYSE, only Big Banks,
                                                     Regional Banks and the Finance group show more than 60% of its stocks above
                                                     their 65-dma.  Presumably, bankers are looking forward to charging more on their loans
                                                     and will use any increase in the short-term rates the Fed charges to raise
                                                     their fees.  It seems highly unlikely that Finance stocks acting alone can bring much
                                                     of a rally.  We have to show still more patience. 

                                                                           With The OBVPct So Negative,
                                                                           A DJI Breakdown below 18000
                                                                           Should Be Quite Bearish.


                                                     Eventually, the DJI will break away from its narrow trading range.  Looking back
                                                     at the DJI since 1928, we find a few other cases where the DJI went narrowly sidewise
                                                     for 6 ore more weeks with the OBVPct Negative.  This reliably brought an additional
                                                     decline:
                                                                      8/12/1931-9/3/1931   deep bear market
                                                                      1/15/1940-5/19/1940  deep 20% decline
                                                                      4/30/1945-7/17/1945  shallow decline
                                                                      3/7/1949-5/27/1949    7% decline

                                                                      See the narrow trading below just before World War II
                                                                      spread to Western Europe.  Our situation shows much
                                                                      lower and worse OBVPct, unfortunately. 



                                                     
 Links to Charts   

                                           
Peerless DJIA and A/D Line     DJI-OBVPCT    Hourly DJIA  
                                                     
 S&P    OEX     NYSE  NASDAQ
                                                       DIA     SPY    QQQ       IWM 

                                                       Short-Term Rates      DJI-Utilities    REITS    A/D Line-6000 Stocks
                                                       SOXL  TECL   FAS    Crude Oil   Oil/Gas Stocks 
 

                                                       Bullish MAXCPs 
    Bearish MINCPs
 
                                            Stocks:  
AAPL, BIDU, IBM, TXN
                                            Bank StocksDB (Deutsche Bank), WFC (Wells Fargo), GS (Goldman Sachs), AMZN, FB
                                            ETFS:  BBH, BRZU, DIA, DUST,  FAS, GASL, GLD, IWM,  JETS, JNUG, KOL, MDY,NUGT
                                            OIHRETL,  RSX, SLV, SOXL, TECL,  TMF, TNA, UGAZ, UPW,  VGK, YINN  

                                                      Below see how the remaining best performing stock-groups weakened on Friday. 
                                                      Now only Financials seem secure and show more than 60% of their stocks above
                                                      their 65-dma. 

                                            

                                                           Pct of Different Groups over 65-dma Ranked
 

                                                           10/31             10/28              10/27           10/26             10/25             10/24             10/21         
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Big Banks        85.7%          85.7%           85.7%          85.7%           85.7%             85.7%           85.7%                  
                                                 
                                  Regional Banks 66.7%       61.1%           72.2%           69.5
                                  Finance            60.0%         63.3%           68.9%           68.1

                                  Utilities            52%            28.3%           38.6%

                                 
                                 Semi-C             48.9%           44.9%           50.7%          51.5%           56.6%             56.6%          49.3%                   
                                                   

                                 Foreign ETFs   39.7%           42.6%           42.6%          51.5%            58.8%             61.8%           57.4%           
                                 Software           41.8%            41.8%           37.3%         44.8%           46.3%            53.7%          43.3%        
                                 NASDAQ-100  40.4%            36.2%           38.3%          40.4%          42.6                44.7%          38.3%            
                                 Computers        40.7%            37.3%           40.7%          40.7%          40.7%            44.4%          37.0%

                                 OIL/GAS          36.6%          46.5%           54.1%         57.9%            57.9%             65.1%           68.6%       
                                 Military            36.5%            38.7%            38.7%            32.7%          26.9%            30.8%         21.2%
                                 SP-500              36.1%             32.9%           32.0%           34.5%            34.3%            38.1%         34.9%
                                 Rus-1000          35.1%             31.9%            32.1%           35.0%          36.1%             39.8%          36.5%            
                                                     
                                 DJIA-30           33%              33.3%            36.7%            33%              33%               33.0%         32.3%           
                                 ALL                  32.0%          31.0%            33.0%           36.0%            39.0%             42.0%          39.0%    

                                 Autos                25.0%            17.5%           22.5%           32.5%             27.5%            45.0%        37.5% 
                                
Junk Bonds     22.2%         52.6%           68.4%          78.9%           84.2%            84.2%           78.9%                 
                                 Biotechs            16.7%            18.1%           22%            22.9%             26.0%            29.0%         29.0%            
                                                   
                                 Retail                14.8%             14.8%            18.5%           20.4%
                                 Gold                   14.0%              8.8%              7.0%            5.3%              8.8%             7.0%           5.3%    
                                 REITs               12.6%              9.6%            10.6%           16.2%             22.6%            23.1%         19.6%       

                                           
                                HomeBldg          5.6%             11.8%              5.6%            5.6%              5.6%             16.7%          16.7%       
                                Bonds                2.6%                3.4%              3.4%            4.3%              4.3%              4.3%          5.2%  

                                                          11rose             4rose               4rose           2rose              0rose              14rose
                                                         
  8fell              17fell               14fell           10fell               15fell               3fell