SEPTEMBER BUY B21s
1929-2017
(C) 2017 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
September Buy B21s.
These have all been reinforcing Buys . They occur when the
NYSE A/D Line
makes
a 150-day new high in the last week of
September with positive IP21 and V-I values.
Below, see all the past
8 completed cases
since 1929. The average gain, assuming
one
would have bought the DJI on the Buy B21 and then sold the DJI on the next
automatic
Peerless Sell
signal, a whopping big +17.3% profit would have been made. Only in one
case, 1950,
would there have been a brief paper loss that almost reached 2%.
It's true that there have only been 8 prior cases.
But like all our Peerless signals
they are not arbitrary. Rather, they make intuitive sense. We
know that Septembers
are more likely than any other month to bring weakness in the general
market. Here
it is the unusualness of both price and internal strength at this time that makes the market
standout as being bullish. This
notion came to me, I remember, as I watched the market
rally in September
and October 2006. I did not take the time to make it into a Buy Signal
because it was never needed to reverse a Peerless Sell. But now, I can
see its value lies
in showing just how bullish the market would seem to be. I will post all the
charts for these
signals this weekend. This signal will have to be added to the new
Peerless book, which
should be done soon.
September Buy B21s
<1>
Date
la/ma AROC P-I
IP21 V-I OPct
Result
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/25/1942 1.023 .424 75 .257
40 .564 Gain = +30.2% S8 on 6/2/1943.
9/25/1945 1.017 .643 183 .296 190
.319 Gain = +11.0% S9 on 1/10/1946.
9/29/1949 1.009 .244 98 .143
58 .169 Gain = +20.9% S8 on 5/18/1950.
9/29/1950 1.016 .498 119 .131 111
.383 Gain = +14.4% S9 on 4/30/1951.
9/29/1958 1.016 .488 84 .098
24 .234 Gain = +20.4% S12 on 7/1/1958
9/25/1964 1.019 .633 102 .092 29
.499 Gain = +7.3% S7 on 5/13/1965
9/26/2006 1.017 .400 342 .091 23
.255 Gain = +6.2% S19 on 1/5/2007
9/29/2010 1.026 .934 511 .173 126
.489 Gain = +18.2% S12 on 6/30/2011
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg. Gain = +17.3%
9/25/2017 1.010 .277 410
.064 56 .471
<1> There already is another different
type of Buy-on-Strength Buy B21 that
occurs in the last three months of the year. This can be easily
distinguished from
the new B21 by its always taking place at the end of September. Our
new Peerless
book will show all the years' charts and list all of each signals' cases and
results.