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Peerless
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HELP
A
Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction
to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless
Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different
Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
Peerless Signals and DJI
Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965
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Documentation for
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1/19/2016 --->
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--->
High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 --->
Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at
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OBV NNCs on
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Introduction to
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===================================================================================
3/23/17
The Buy B4 seems to have "failed" in that the NYSE
A/D Line has broken its uptrend and the DJI has formed and completed a
a 20-day head/shoulders pattern. Most often that brings a DJI decline
back to its falling 65-dma, now at 20311. Today did see an
impressive
902 more up than down on the NYSE. In addition, the minor A/D Line
downtrend could be broken with another good breadth day. Unfortunately,
that would likely still leave all the major market ETFs with falling 5-day
moving averages and falling closing Powers.
Seasonality becomes bullish next week. So, a break in the A/D Line's
minor downtrend could well bring another run to 21000. But what would we
buy? Right now all key general market ETFs show falling Closing Powers
and 5-day moving averages. In fact, even a good 1% rise tomorrow might
still not turn up the 5-day ma. The 21-day is also still falling for the
DJI.
Waiting until next week to buy seems what is called for
now.
KEY ETFS 3/23
3/24 Pivot- Closing
ITRS IP21
Point-5-dma Power
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
206.31 -.10 208.86
Falling
--- -.002
SPY
234.03 -.25 237.03
Falling
-.006 +.043
QQQ
130.36 -.33 131.69
Falling
+.142 +.023
MDY
308.08 +.72 314.22
Falling
-.03 +.01.
IWM
134.78 +.78 136.46
Falling
-.049 -.007
FAS
43.51 +.38 47.32
Falling
-.01 -.026
QQQ
130.36 -.33 131.69
Falling
+.022
+.142
SOXL
75.03 -.58 77.85
Falling
+.206
+.166
TECL
65.19 -.58 67.2
Falling
-.01
-.026
BRZU
38.49 -1.30 40.82
Falling
+.018
-.182
OIL
5.14 -.08 5.37
Falling
-.175
-.06
GLD
118.67 -.16 116.99
Rising
+.009 -.002
Let watch to see if the NASDAQ, QQQ and IWM (Russell-2000)
can stay above their recent support-lows tomorrow and Monday.
That should allow prices to recovery what they lost on Tuesday
this week. More than that will require very good breadth.
The Hourly DJI's DISI-OBV Line will have to show a strong
recovery, too.
3/23/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, CHOC NIB,
JJC, WEAT
3/23/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/23/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .867 .882 .882 .911 .897 .897
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .9 .85 .85 .85
DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .846 .923 .923
UTILITY .777 .822 .8 .8 .822 .822
NIFTY .742 .771 .685 .8 .771 .742
NASD-100 .741 .752 .731 .795 .817 .806
DOWJONES .733 .7 .666 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .722 .777 .777
CHINA .709 .693 .693 .741 .725 .758
SEMI .672 .689 .646 .724 .732 .715
N=10
GAMING .666 .6 .6 .733 .7 .633 EDU .625 .625 .5 .75 .75 .625 SOFTWARE .625 .625 .609 .687 .718 .734 ELECTRON .623 .613 .592 .659 .68 .639 INDEXES .621 .592 .617 .672 .676 .684 MORNSTAR .613 .596 .588 .718 .747 .739 COMPUTER .6 .64 .52 .68 .68 .64 SP500 .581 .572 .566 .654 .679 .683 MILITARY .577 .555 .555 .666 .666 .666 SP-100 .567 .567 .577 .68 .701 .742 INSURANC .558 .529 .558 .647 .764 .676 RUS-1000 .553 .54 .533 .631 .662 .654 CHEM .549 .535 .521 .647 .676 .605 GREEN .548 .516 .483 .516 .58 .516 HACKERS .5 .5 .444 .555 .611 .611 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .494 .494 .49 .592 .608 .624 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .578 .578 .631 REIT .458 .39 .406 .447 .484 .406 INFRA .454 .363 .363 .636 .545 .454 JETS .444 .333 .333 .444 .333 .555 GOLD .433 .509 .528 .433 .415 .433 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .428 .571 .714 .714 COMODITY .408 .394 .408 .436 .422 .422 INDMATER .387 .367 .377 .53 .5 .5 AUTO .35 .325 .325 .5 .525 .575
BONDFUND .333 .36 .315 .279 .189 .171 RETAIL .321 .321 .303 .41 .464 .41 FINANCE .315 .26 .26 .51 .684 .728 FOOD .266 .266 .2 .2 .066 .066 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 TRANSP .2 .2 .2 .35 .3 .4 OILGAS .164 .151 .17 .177 .177 .17 COAL .111 .111 .222 .222 .222 .222 REGBANKS .055 .055 .055 .222 .361 .416 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 .714 .857 1 N=10
===================================================================================
3/22/2017
I said last night that I thought that the DJI's completed head
and shoulders coupled with the break in the NYSE A/D Line
and the weakness in the Big Banks should bring a DJI decline
back to the lower band and the rising 65-dma, despite the
earlier Buy B4. That is indeed the usual pattern after what
I will call here, are "failed" Buy B4s.
Tonight I went through all the DJI charts since 1928. I saw
and counted about 45 Buy B4s, each separated by 50 days.
22 of the 45 brought "USA" advances, meaning "up straight away'.
In 8 instances, the DJI went sidewise for 2 to 8 weeks and
then made a very tradable advance. But it must be said that
15 "failed", in the sense that the DJI soon declined significantly,
mostly to the rising 65-dma or 3.5% lower band.
45 Buy B4s
22 brought "USA" (up very significantly straight away)
8 saw the DJI go sidewise for up to 8 weeks before
rising signifantly.
15 "failures" (DJI fell to rising 65-dma or lower.
3 were soon followed by declines significantly below lower band.
In the 15 "failures", the DJI usually formed a recognizable top pattern.
Most often it completed a head/shoulders. Almost always, the NYSE's
A/D Line uptrend was broken. That is what has just happened in our case.
When you look at these "failures", you will see why I predict a DJI decline
next to the rising 65-dma or the lower 3.5% band.
7/17/1939 - 10% decline from its highs. War in Europe.
7/9/1942 - 4% decline from highs to rising 65-dma
9/15/1950 - 5% decline from highs to rising 65-dma
11/9/1956 - H/S - 5.5% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
4/6/1963 - H/S - 5.0% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
8/1/1967 - 3.5% decline from highs to lower band and 65-dma
11/14/73 - 3.2% decline.
3/6/1974 - H/S
& A/D Break - 11% decline (in bear market)
8/6/1984 - H/S - 5.0% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
1/29/1985 - A/D Break - 3.5% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
10/28/1986 - 4.5% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
2/1/1989 - H/S & A/D Break - 4.0% from highs to lower band and 65-dma
2/5/1993 - A/D Break - 4.5% from highs to 65-dma
11/20/1996 - A/D Break - 4.5% from highs to 65-dma
3/5/2014 - 6% from highs to 65-dma
Let's be patient before re-taking long positions in
the key ETFs.
See how their Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages are falling.
Do some hedging with our Bearish MINCPs
of the weakest stocks.
3/22/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, CHOC NIB,
JJC, WEAT
3/22/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/22/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .882 .882 .911 .897 .897 .897 BEVERAGE .85 .9 .85 .85 .85 .9 DJI-13 .846 .769 .846 .923 .923 .923 UTILITY .822 .8 .8 .822 .822 .822 NIFTY .771 .685 .8 .771 .742 .742 NASD-100 .752 .731 .795 .817 .806 .795 HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .777 .777 .777 DOWJONES .7 .666 .8 .8 .8 .8 CHINA .693 .693 .741 .725 .758 .677 SEMI .689 .646 .724 .732 .715 .681 N=10 COMPUTER .64 .52 .68 .68 .64 .64 EDU .625 .5 .75 .75 .625 .75 SOFTWARE .625 .609 .687 .718 .734 .687 ELECTRON .613 .592 .664 .68 .639 .597 GAMING .6 .6 .733 .7 .633 .6 MORNSTAR .596 .588 .718 .747 .739 .739 INDEXES .592 .617 .672 .676 .684 .693 SP500 .572 .566 .654 .679 .685 .702 SP-100 .567 .577 .68 .701 .742 .752 MILITARY .555 .555 .666 .666 .644 .666 RUS-1000 .54 .533 .631 .662 .655 .663 CHEM .535 .521 .647 .676 .605 .619 INSURANC .529 .558 .647 .764 .676 .705 GREEN .516 .483 .516 .58 .516 .483 GOLD .509 .509 .452 .415 .433 .471 HACKERS .5 .444 .555 .611 .611 .555 N=16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BIOTECH .494 .49 .588 .608 .62 .632 SOLAR .473 .473 .578 .578 .631 .578 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 COMODITY .394 .408 .436 .422 .422 .408 REIT .39 .406 .447 .484 .411 .395 INDMATER .367 .377 .53 .5 .5 .5 INFRA .363 .363 .636 .545 .454 .454 BONDFUND .36 .315 .279 .189 .189 .198 N=8 JETS .333 .333 .444 .333 .555 .555 AUTO .325 .325 .5 .525 .575 .55 RETAIL .321 .303 .41 .464 .41 .392 FOOD .266 .2 .2 .066 .066 .066 FINANCE .26 .26 .51 .684 .728 .576 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 TRANSP .2 .2 .35 .3 .4 .6 OILGAS .151 .17 .177 .177 .177 .17 COAL .111 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 REGBANKS .055 .055 .222 .361 .416 .305 BIGBANKS 0 0 .714 .857 1 .857 N=11
===================================================================================
3/21/2017
A Peerless Buy B4 signal should not be so quickly
reversed by a completed head and shoulders pattern.
I believe that when this has happened in the past there
has always been a decline to the lower band. With the
market up so much,
I would trust the judged Sell S10
that the completed head/shoulders pattern represents. A
decline to the lower 3.5% band seems most likely.
The TigerSoft Sell S5 shown below coupled with the
completed H/S Pattern should be treated as a judged Sell S10.
Shorting some the many
Bearish MINCPs
seems reasonable.
On the DJI's 2016-2017 chart (further below), you can see today
brought an automatic Sell S5. Our programs are not able to recognize
Peerless Sell S10s in all cases. But when see a the DJI form
and complete a head/shoulders which produces an automatic Tiger
Sell S5 on it, I think we should trust it and treat it as a judged S10.
These Tiger Sell S5 H/S patterns are often dangerously self-fulfilling,
as in April 2010 (just below) AND all too often they show that the
market must adjust suddenly to some dangerously bearish news, like
before 9/11.
April 2010 DJI - Note Tiger Sell S5 and completed H/S
Note quickly formed H/S Pattern in lead-up to 9/11/2001.
The Current Decline seems based on more than
the frequent Post Options' Expiration Bearishness.
The Wall Street Journal thinks it is Trump's
Credibility Gap.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-presidents-credibility-1490138920
QQQ and TECL should have been sold today.
No other ETF Positions have been suggested recently.
The growing weakness in Bank stocks was too much
for
the market today. Decliners were almost 4x advancers
and NYSE Down Volume was 6x Up-Stocks' Volume.
The DJI has completed a small 20-day head/shoulders
pattern. This sets up an objective of 21100 where the
lower 3.5% band and the rising 65-dma should act as support.
The long positions in QQQ and TECL closed below Monday's
pivot points, thus causing their 5-day ma to turn down today.
The complete rout of the up-opening caused their Closing
Powers to drop below their now falling 21-dma. So, traders
should have sold these positions.
I have been noting the unusual growing weakness in the Bank stocks
and FAS. Yesterday, I said this seemed to have to do with the Declining
Dollar and Trump's Credibility Gap more than the prospects
of rising interest rates. Suggesting
this might be correct, Bonds
rose in their usual defensive way.
Bloomberg experts blame the
decline on the likely failure of TrumpCare to pass the Senate.
Without a new health care bill,
the entire Trump Budget with
its juicy tax cuts has become uncertain.
Hourly DJI
FAS
QQQ
TECL
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/21/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/21/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/21/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .9 .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 ETFS .882 .911 .897 .897 .897 .867 UTILITY .8 .8 .822 .822 .822 .777 DJI-13 .769 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 NASD-100 .731 .795 .817 .806 .795 .774 HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .777 .777 .777 .722 CHINA .693 .741 .725 .758 .677 .709 NIFTY .685 .8 .771 .742 .742 .714 N=8
DOWJONES .666 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SEMI .646 .724 .732 .715 .681 .655 INDEXES .617 .672 .676 .684 .693 .634 SOFTWARE .609 .687 .718 .734 .687 .671 GAMING .6 .733 .7 .633 .6 .633 ELECTRON .592 .664 .685 .639 .597 .577 MORNSTAR .588 .718 .747 .739 .739 .642 SP-100 .577 .68 .701 .742 .752 .69 SP500 .564 .652 .677 .684 .698 .642 INSURANC .558 .647 .764 .676 .705 .647 MILITARY .555 .666 .666 .644 .666 .577 RUS-1000 .533 .631 .662 .655 .662 .607 CHEM .521 .647 .676 .605 .647 .507 COMPUTER .52 .68 .68 .64 .64 .64 GOLD .509 .433 .433 .433 .49 .207 EDU .5 .75 .75 .625 .75 .625 BIOTECH .49 .588 .604 .62 .632 .584 GREEN .483 .516 .58 .516 .483 .451 SOLAR .473 .578 .578 .631 .578 .631 HACKERS .444 .555 .611 .611 .555 .5 HOSPITAL .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 COMODITY .408 .436 .422 .422 .408 .225 REIT .406 .447 .484 .411 .395 .239 INDMATER .377 .53 .5 .5 .52 .397 INFRA .363 .636 .545 .454 .454 .363
JETS .333 .444 .333 .555 .555 .444
AUTO .325 .5 .525 .575 .55 .475
BONDFUND .315 .279 .189 .189 .198 .081
RETAIL .303 .41 .464 .41 .392 .392
FINANCE .26 .51 .684 .728 .576 .586
COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222
PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222
FOOD .2 .2 .066 .066 .066 .066
TRANSP .2 .35 .3 .4 .55 .3
OILGAS .17 .177 .177 .177 .177 .126
REGBANKS .055 .222 .361 .416 .305 .361
BIGBANKS 0 .714 .857 1 .857 .857
-- BIG DROP ------
N=12
===================================================================================
3/20/17
Seasonality and the operative Buy B4 should still take the DJI to new
highs. But I would prefer to stay long QQQ and
TECL. They have rising
Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages. In addition each's ITRS
(relative
strength versus the DJI) remains quite positive, as do their IP21s
(Accumulation).
AAPL (below) again looks like it is breaking out and starting another leg up.
AAPL's slow advance may start to accelerate with its breakout today.
Such a move would give a big boost to QQQ and TECL while helping support
DIA.
Time Could Be Running Out for The Rally
Given the pounding the President is getting in the media, it surprises
many that the DJI is holding up as well as it has. This is undoubtedly
true in the short run, say for another three or four weeks. But
eventually,
Trump's growing credibility gap in Washington will weaken his chances
of getting all of his economic program of lower taxes and a big shift away
from social programs to military spending passed by Congress, even
with its Republican majority. Right now, Trump's economic program seems
safe. But this could become a real problem for the market and the economy.
For now the market's very low volatility lulls many into a confident mood.
But all the Trumpian tumult is distracting us from
some important changes
in the bull market. For one thing, the
NYSE A/D Line is weakening. The
P-Indicator is now negative.
A quick 2% rally now on poor breadth could
give us a Sell S9.
This is a result of the prospects of rising
interest rates.
What "the Fed giveth, it can quickly take away."
The DJI now sits on its 21-day ma. Its P-I, V-I and OBVPct
are negative and its current AI (IP21) is only +.024. It has
neckline support at 20700. A break below that will then
likely require a test of its lower band and rising 65-dma
at 20100.
A Bigger Problem.
There is another problem. Bank stocks, big and regional, are the
natural
leaders in a bull market. More than any other group, their moves correlate
with
the DJI's moves. (That is why Peerless signals work best with them since
1986.) But now they show long Closing Power trend-breaks and the FAS
even sports a head/shoulders pattern.
Why? Well the Dollar is weakening, for one thing. But so is Oil.
So, we are
seeing something new here. It is not inflation that is weakening the
Dollar.
Is it foreigners getting a distaste for Trump? Is it China?
Janet Yellen says she may retire early from her post as head of the FED.
A Donald Trump appointment to be Fed Chairman would likely mean a very
new perspective there guiding the nation's monetary policies. The days of
"Hellicopter Ben" and her disciple Yellen would come to an end. With a
new Fed Chairman, there might be a wholesale dumping of hundreds of billions
of FED held debt instruments on the market. This would absorb lots of
investment
capital. It would enormously tighten credit and mean a big jump in
interest rates.
This IS almost too scary a scenario to contemplate. Is that what the Big
Banks
like GS
and JPM are
starting to fear is a growing possibility? One hopes that
Wall Street would be able to use its clout to head that off. Nothing like
this
imminent. So, these stocks, FAS, GS and JPM for example, should
have lots of buyers if they fall another 5% or even 10%. But why are the
Closing Powers of big banks pointing downward now? Why are only
22% of Regional Banks still above the support of their 65-day ma?
FAS - 3x Big Banks' ETF
Tiger Index of Regional Banks
3/20/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/20/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/20/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .911 .897 .897 .897 .882 .897 BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 .8 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 NIFTY .8 .771 .742 .742 .714 .714 UTILITY .8 .822 .822 .822 .777 .8 NASD-100 .795 .817 .806 .795 .774 .763 EDU .75 .75 .625 .75 .625 .625 CHINA .741 .725 .758 .677 .709 .709 GAMING .733 .7 .633 .6 .633 .566 SEMI .724 .732 .715 .681 .655 .672 HOMEBLDG .722 .777 .777 .777 .722 .722 MORNSTAR .718 .747 .739 .739 .642 .68 BIGBANKS .714 .857 1 .857 .857 1 SOFTWARE .687 .718 .734 .687 .671 .703 COMPUTER .68 .68 .64 .64 .64 .6 SP-100 .68 .701 .742 .752 .69 .742 INDEXES .672 .676 .684 .693 .638 .647 N=18
MILITARY .666 .666 .644 .666 .577 .6 ELECTRON .664 .685 .644 .597 .577 .597 SP500 .652 .677 .684 .698 .642 .658 CHEM .647 .676 .605 .647 .507 .507 INSURANC .647 .764 .676 .705 .647 .647 INFRA .636 .545 .454 .454 .363 .363 RUS-1000 .631 .662 .655 .662 .607 .63 BIOTECH .588 .604 .616 .632 .581 .628 SOLAR .578 .578 .631 .578 .631 .631 HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 HACKERS .555 .611 .611 .555 .5 .611 INDMATER .53 .5 .5 .52 .397 .387 GREEN .516 .58 .516 .483 .451 .451 FINANCE .51 .684 .728 .576 .597 .619 AUTO .5 .525 .575 .55 .475 .475 REIT .447 .484 .411 .395 .239 .255 JETS .444 .333 .555 .555 .444 .444 COMODITY .436 .422 .422 .408 .239 .281 GOLD .433 .415 .452 .49 .226 .339 RETAIL .41 .464 .41 .392 .392 .392 TRANSP .35 .3 .4 .55 .3 .5
BONDFUND .279 .189 .189 .198 .081 .099 COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 REGBANKS .222 .361 .416 .305 .361 .361 FOOD .2 .066 .066 .066 .066 .066 OILGAS .177 .177 .177 .177 .132 .164 N=6
=====================================================================================
3/17/2017
The
last major Peerless signal remains the Buy B4
shown in the DJI chart. QQQ and
TECL are the strongest
ETFs along with SOXL. Stay long them.
(See the past B4s-based on OBV surges:
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.htm
)
Seasonality suggests several more days of slight weakness
for the DJI. But after that, the historical odds since 1965
favor a rally probably to the upper band.
Trading Days from Now DJI
Pct Gain Probability of a Rally
--------------------------------- ------------------
----------------------------
3
-.2% 46%
5 (a week)
+.1% 56%
10 (two weeks)
+.2% 54%
21 (a month)
+1.5% 74%
Stay long QQQ (NASDAQ-100) and TECL. We want to trade
the strongest uptrends now. Of all the groups of stocks I follow
the most powerful uptrends remain the Nasdaq-100 and Semi-Conductors.
Goldman Sachs (GS) should be watched to see if it's further
weakness will bring on a brief DJI pullback. It is by far
the highest priced DJI-30 stock and so has the most influence
on what the DJI does.
3/17/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL
AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN,
CHOC,
JJC, WEAT
3/17/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/17/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .897 .897 .882 .897 .882
BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 .857 1 .857
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .9 .85 .8 .8
UTILITY .822 .822 .822 .777 .8 .777
NASD-100 .817 .806 .795 .774 .763 .763
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .777 .777 .777 .722 .722 .722
NIFTY .771 .742 .742 .714 .714 .742
INSURANC .764 .676 .705 .647 .647 .676
EDU .75 .625 .75 .625 .625 .625
MORNSTAR .747 .739 .739 .642 .68 .655
SEMI .732 .715 .681 .655 .663 .637
CHINA .725 .758 .677 .709 .709 .661
SOFTWARE .718 .734 .687 .671 .703 .703
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .714
SP-100 .701 .742 .752 .69 .731 .721
GAMING .7 .633 .6 .633 .566 .633
ELECTRON .685 .644 .603 .577 .592 .567
FINANCE .684 .728 .576 .597 .619 .608
COMPUTER .68 .64 .64 .64 .6 .64
SP500 .679 .685 .7 .643 .658 .66
CHEM .676 .605 .647 .507 .521 .478
INDEXES .676 .684 .693 .638 .638 .638
N=24
MILITARY .666 .644 .666 .577 .6 .6 RUS-1000 .66 .653 .66 .605 .628 .627 HACKERS .611 .611 .555 .5 .611 .611 BIOTECH .604 .616 .628 .581 .628 .608 GREEN .58 .516 .483 .451 .419 .419 SOLAR .578 .631 .578 .631 .578 .526 INFRA .545 .454 .454 .363 .363 .363 AUTO .525 .575 .55 .475 .5 .35 INDMATER .5 .5 .52 .397 .408 .346 REIT .484 .411 .395 .239 .255 .255 RETAIL .464 .41 .392 .392 .392 .392 COMODITY .422 .422 .408 .239 .295 .267 GOLD .415 .433 .509 .226 .339 .207 REGBANKS .361 .416 .305 .361 .361 .361
JETS .333 .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 TRANSP .3 .4 .55 .3 .5 .5 COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 BONDFUND .189 .189 .198 .081 .117 .108 OILGAS .177 .177 .177 .132 .183 .17 FOOD .066 .066 .066 .066 .066 .133 N=7
==========================================================================
3/16/17 Peerless remains on Buy B4.
I would prefer to hold
QQQ and
TECL
rather than DIA or SPY. This is because the ITRS readings which
compare
how much a stock or ETF has risen in the last 50 trading days compared to the
DJI remain very positive. All four of these ETFs now have rising 5-day ma
but only QQQ,
TECL and SOXL are classified as having rising Closing Powers and show
very positive relative strength versus DIA. Note the falling Closing Power
for FAS (3x Banks). Avoid these for now.
KEY VALUES FOR KEY ETFS
ETF 3/16
5-day ma Closing Power IP21 ITRS
Pivot-Point Chart Rating
for
3/17
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 209.44 -.14
203.15 ?
.285 ----------
SPY
238.48 -.47 237.69 Bullish
.318
+.003
QQQ
132.01 -.09 131.39 Bullish
.392 +.049
IWM 137.91 +.18 135.96
?
.111 -.038
TECL
67.08 +.42 65.65 Bullish
.453 +.25
SOXL 76.63 -.30
74.05 Bullish
.372 +.284
FAS 48.23 +.35
47.58
Bearish
.276 +.094
Seasonality and Bullish Strength We Are Seeing
Suggest There Will Be No Significant Top
until after April 15th.
I remain impressed with the very high current Accumulation (IP21) values for
all these major market ETFs, except IWM. When we look at the Peerless
DJIA chart, we also see a relatively high IP21. This is important because
most of the DJI's big advances at the beginning of the year, here defined
as those that do not show a drop at any time in the first quarter to the lower
3.5% band, go much higher. They usually do not reach their first peak
before a decline then starts to the lower band until after April 15th. And
most
do not reach a peak with their Accumulation Index (IP21) still above +.10.
The DJI's IP21 is now .093.
From this I conclude that the strength we have
seen so far this year will most likely NOT bring a top for another month, at
least.
BIG BULL MARKETS in THE FIRST QUARTER
WHERE THERE IS NO DJI DECLINE TO THE
LOWER BAND: 1945-2017
Year First Peak Leading
IP21 at
to Decline To 3.5% First Peak
Lower Band
---------------------------------------------------------
1950
June 12
+.176
1954
August 2
+.207
1961
May 22
+.005
1964
no top
1965
May 14
+.097
1971
April 28
+.095
1972
April 18
+.054
1976
April 22
-.027
1986
March 27
+.064
1987
April 6
+.187
1993
no top
1995
no top
1998
April 21
+.045
2006
May 9
+.079
2012
April 2
+.076
2013
May 22
+.136
This study shows
16 previous strong first quarter DJI advances like
we are now seeing. Only one brought a March top this late in the quarter.
2 tops occurred in the first half of April. 4 took place between April
18th
and April 28th. 4 were seen in May. The 5 others did not see a
significant
top until June or much later.
3/16/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL
AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN,
CHOC,
JJC, WEAT
3/16/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/16/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 .857 .857 1 .857 .857
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .897 .882 .897 .897 .852
BEVERAGE .85 .9 .85 .8 .8 .85
UTILITY .822 .822 .777 .8 .777 .733
NASD-100 .806 .795 .774 .763 .763 .731
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .777 .777 .722 .722 .722 .666
CHINA .758 .677 .709 .709 .661 .645
NIFTY .742 .742 .714 .714 .742 .742
SP-100 .742 .752 .69 .731 .721 .721
MORNSTAR .739 .739 .642 .68 .655 .63
SOFTWARE .734 .687 .671 .703 .703 .671
FINANCE .728 .576 .597 .619 .608 .619
SEMI .715 .681 .655 .663 .637 .646
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 .714
SP500 .685 .7 .643 .658 .66 .65
INDEXES .684 .693 .638 .638 .642 .659
INSURANC .676 .705 .647 .647 .676 .617
N= 19
RUS-1000 .655 .662 .607 .63 .629 .61 ELECTRON .644 .603 .582 .592 .567 .577 MILITARY .644 .666 .577 .6 .6 .577 COMPUTER .64 .64 .64 .6 .64 .68 GAMING .633 .6 .633 .566 .633 .533 SOLAR .631 .578 .631 .578 .526 .526 EDU .625 .75 .625 .625 .625 .625 BIOTECH .616 .628 .577 .628 .608 .608 HACKERS .611 .555 .5 .611 .611 .611 CHEM .605 .647 .507 .521 .478 .45 AUTO .575 .55 .475 .5 .375 .325 JETS .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 GREEN .516 .483 .451 .419 .419 .419 INDMATER .5 .52 .397 .408 .346 .326 INFRA .454 .454 .363 .363 .363 .272 GOLD .433 .49 .245 .339 .207 .207 COMODITY .422 .408 .239 .295 .267 .253 REGBANKS .416 .305 .361 .361 .361 .388 REIT .411 .395 .239 .255 .255 .291 RETAIL .41 .392 .392 .392 .392 .357 TRANSP .4 .55 .3 .5 .5 .35
COAL .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 .222 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 BONDFUND .189 .198 .081 .117 .108 .09 OILGAS .177 .177 .132 .183 .17 .17 FOOD .066 .066 .066 .066 .133 .2 N=5
========================================================================================
3/15/17 Peerless remains on Buy B4.
Buy more QQQ and TECL.
The key indicators and the DJI chart now looks a lot more like
1925
than 1929! The upper band at 21500 seems like the next DJI's target.
Cover most shorts. Speculative "animal
spirits" should now start coming
out in full force. (See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits )
De-regulating
Wall Street, in my opinion, virtually guarantees we will see a wild speculative
orgy
before too long. Look at all the Bullish blue Accumulation on strength in
TECL,
the 3x leveraged ETF for high techs. This looks like it will go
substantially higher.
TECL is a substitute for buying AAPL or
AMAT, which would be reasonable
choices here, too.
In most respects it was a very fine day for the stock market
technically.
Instead of breaking down below its neckline support and 21-day ma support,
the DJI advanced +113 and there were a whopping 6x more NYSE advancers
than decliners. The potential head and shoulders patterns of the
SP-500 and
NASDAQ were destroyed by rallies above these
indexes' price patterns' right
shoulder-apex. With Peerless on a Buy, with the market running near or at
all
time highs and our Accumulation Indexes so high, I think we have to expect
another DJI run to the upper band soon. Assuming that breadth continues
strong,
expect the P-Indicator to turn positive, in which case, we will not get a Sell
S9
near the 3.5% band near 21500.
With the long awaited boost to interest rates now out of the way, traders
bought
back bonds, utilities and Gold stocks. Only Big Banks and some finance stocks
hesitated. Under-performance by the Financials is a positive factor for
now. Too
exclusive investor buying in financials would likely limit the upside potential.
A broader bull market will last longer. Relative weakness in Big Banks
will only
become a problem if stocks like JPM show more red Distribution, Closing Power
S7-s
and head/shoulders patterns. If that happens, they might well be leading
the DJI in
calling a top.
See my study of JPM further below.
Our favorite longs, QQQ and TECL roared ahead, presumably attracting
high-performance funds. These still look like they will go much higher.
Buy more.
SOXL is even stronger. It is not Professionals that are pushing it
higher. Rather, I think it is those who understand that Trump's huge boost
to US military spending will focus on upgrading high tech capabilities
and these are heavily dependent on new and faster microcircuits. Not for
nothing, I have called your attention to the continuing strength in
TXN and
AMAT. If the market were about to begin a bear market, we would expect
these highly leveraged stocks to show head/shoulders patterns and red
Distribution. Just the opposite is true now.
Leading biotechs, like CLVS + 4.98 and BLUE +5.85, made multi-point leaps
upward today. Speculative
vigor is growing and the Fed will apparently be unable
to stop it for now.
Cover most short sales in the weaker oil/gas stocks, biotechs and retailers.
There is ,more upside potential than downside potential.
3/15/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL
AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN,
CHOC,
JJC, WEAT
3/15/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/15/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
BEVERAGE .9 .85 .8 .8 .85 .85
ETFS .897 .882 .897 .897 .852 .852
BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 .857 .857 .857
UTILITY .822 .777 .8 .777 .733 .755
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
NASD-100 .795 .774 .763 .763 .731 .731
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .722 .722 .666 .777
SP-100 .752 .69 .731 .721 .721 .742
EDU .75 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625
NIFTY .742 .714 .714 .742 .742 .742
MORNSTAR .739 .642 .68 .655 .638 .668
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 .714 .714 .714
INSURANC .705 .647 .647 .676 .617 .588
SP500 .7 .643 .658 .66 .652 .672
INDEXES .693 .638 .638 .642 .659 .672
SOFTWARE .687 .671 .703 .703 .671 .671
SEMI .681 .655 .663 .637 .646 .681
CHINA .677 .709 .709 .661 .645 .709
N=19
MILITARY .666 .577 .6 .6 .6 .577 RUS-1000 .662 .607 .63 .629 .612 .641 CHEM .647 .507 .521 .478 .464 .478 COMPUTER .64 .64 .6 .64 .68 .64 BIOTECH .628 .577 .624 .608 .604 .608 ELECTRON .603 .582 .597 .567 .577 .592 GAMING .6 .633 .566 .633 .533 .6 SOLAR .578 .631 .578 .526 .526 .578 FINANCE .569 .591 .612 .602 .634 .612 HACKERS .555 .5 .611 .611 .611 .611 JETS .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 AUTO .55 .475 .5 .375 .325 .425 TRANSP .55 .3 .5 .5 .35 .4 INDMATER .52 .397 .408 .346 .336 .377 GOLD .49 .226 .358 .207 .207 .245 GREEN .483 .451 .419 .419 .419 .419 INFRA .454 .363 .363 .363 .272 .363 COMODITY .408 .239 .295 .267 .253 .394 REIT .395 .239 .255 .255 .286 .354 RETAIL .392 .392 .392 .392 .357 .392
REGBANKS .305 .361 .361 .361 .388 .388 COAL .222 .222 .333 .333 .222 .222 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 .666 BONDFUND .198 .081 .117 .108 .099 .315 OILGAS .177 .132 .183 .17 .177 .196 FOOD .071 .071 .071 .142 .214 .357 N=6
Stocks To Watch That Lead DJI: JPM
(Previously, I suggested TXN).
DOES A JPM TOP PREDICT DJIA(DIA) TOP?
2007-2011
See charts for
this study.
yes - 5 cases
no - 1 case (2014)
2007 JPM's top came a month before DIA's
2008 JPM's top came two weeks before DIA's.
2009 JMP matched DJI'a rise, but was much stronger at its beginning.
2010 JPM matched DIA's quick March-April top. Lagged at year end.
2011 JPM's May top came a month before DIA's.
2012 JPM's March top came two weeks before DIA's.
2013 JPM's prices matched DIA's.
2014 JPM's March top did NOT bring a DIA decline.
2015 JPM's Aug. top was easier to spot in JPM than DIA
because of clear CP bearish divergence.
2016 JPM's mid-year strength led DJI upwards.
=====================================================================================
3/14/17 Peerless remains on Buy B4 but
we do see potential
head/shoulders patterns
developing in DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ.
Should that worry us?
I
just did a study of all the judged
head/shoulders patterns since 1965.
See all
the DJI charts with these
H/S patterns, completed and failed. There are more
than
40 of them. Most of the patterns brought declines down to the DJI's lower band,
at least.
A few did fail. The ones that failed to unfold bearishly were usually ones with
IP21s (current Accum. Index)
above +.07. The DJI's current IP21 now is +.128.
The H/S pattern it is now tracing out will probably fail, too.
Note that there were three cases where the IP21 was above +.10. In two
cases
the H/S failed (11/1/1982 and 3/10/2016) and in one instance the DJI fell
sharply
and began a bear market (8/3/1990). In this last case, Peerless was already on a
major Sell.
In the first two cases, it was not.
The judged H/S patterns that proved correctly bearish nearly all showed IP21
levels well below +.07, had fallen below their price's 65-dma when the pattern's
neckline
was broken below and also were already on a Peerless Sell. None of those
three conditions
is true presently with the DJIA. This strongly suggests that the DJI will
not decline
as far down as the lower band, if its decline does break its support at 20700.
Judged Potential Head and Shoulders Patterns in DJI , SP-500 and NASDAQ?
Note that each now shows a very high IP21-Accumulation and is well above
the expected support at the 65-dma.
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/14/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN, JJC, WEAT
3/14/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT. OF STOCKS
ABOVE 65-DAY MA 3/14/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 ETFS .882 .897 .897 .852 .867 .882 BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 .857 .857 .857 BEVERAGE .85 .8 .8 .85 .85 .8 DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .833 UTILITY .777 .8 .777 .733 .777 .844 NASD-100 .774 .763 .763 .731 .731 .752 HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .666 .777 .722 HOSPITAL .714 .857 .714 .714 .714 .857 NIFTY .714 .714 .742 .742 .742 .771 CHINA .709 .709 .661 .645 .709 .693 SP-100 .69 .731 .721 .721 .742 .762 SOFTWARE .671 .703 .703 .671 .671 .656 N=13
SEMI .655 .663 .637 .646 .681 .698 INSURANC .647 .647 .676 .617 .588 .647 MORNSTAR .642 .68 .655 .638 .672 .705 SP500 .642 .656 .658 .65 .673 .694 COMPUTER .64 .6 .64 .68 .68 .76 INDEXES .634 .638 .642 .659 .676 .672 GAMING .633 .566 .633 .533 .6 .533 SOLAR .631 .578 .526 .526 .578 .578 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 RUS-1000 .607 .63 .629 .612 .644 .66 FINANCE .591 .612 .602 .634 .634 .655 ELECTRON .582 .597 .572 .577 .597 .603 BIOTECH .577 .624 .604 .604 .608 .565 MILITARY .577 .6 .6 .6 .577 .577 CHEM .507 .521 .478 .464 .478 .563 HACKERS .5 .611 .611 .611 .611 .555 AUTO .475 .5 .375 .325 .425 .375 GREEN .451 .419 .419 .419 .419 .387 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 INDMATER .397 .408 .346 .336 .377 .428 RETAIL .392 .392 .392 .357 .392 .357 INFRA .363 .363 .363 .272 .363 .454 REGBANKS .361 .361 .361 .388 .388 .472
TRANSP .3 .5 .5 .35 .4 .45 COMODITY .242 .3 .271 .257 .4 .428 REIT .239 .255 .255 .286 .354 .526 GOLD .23 .346 .211 .211 .25 .23 COAL .222 .333 .333 .222 .222 .222 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .333 .666 .888 OILGAS .132 .183 .17 .177 .202 .265 BONDFUND .081 .117 .108 .099 .315 .405 FOOD .066 .066 .133 .2 .333 .4 N=9
===================================================================================
3/13/2017
Stick with the Peerless Buy B4. The
continuing weakness
in Crude Oil may hold the DJI back a little longer. XOM
and CVX are the big oil industry representatives in DJIA.
The likelihood of a rise in Interest Rates next week is also
adding to the profit-taking in the DJIA. I would think the
the DJI will find good support at its rising 21-day (147) Hour Moving"
Average. Continue to hold off buying back DIA, at least until
the Hourly DJI's OBV-DISI downtrendline is violated and
the DJI's 5-day ma turns back up.
Stay long QQQ and
TECL.
If we were near a top I don't think
we would be seeing a very good breadth day like today when
the DJI retreats a little. Today there were 591 more UP than
DOWN on the NYSE. Semi-conductors (SOXL) like AMAT and
TXN could not wait for the DJI to regain its footing. They
roared to new highs new highs today. So did TECL and QQQ.
Let's see tomorrow if the NASDAQ can keep advancing
and thus destroy what could become a quick head/shoulders
pattern. Its high IP21 (current Accumulation) should keep it
out of trouble.
While techs muscle their way higher, it is apparent that
a number of Bonds and Oil Stocks coupled with a good number
Biotechs and Retail stocks are breaking down under the pressure
heavy Professional and Insider Selling. Their continuing
weakness shows a fragmented market and demonstrates
a growing internal weakness and Professional cautiousness.
For us, this
gives us stocks to hedge longs with. And it's also not a bad thing
for our Bullish MAXCPs, as more and more aggressive funds are
naturally funneled into the remaining "power-houses".
Speculation Run Wild?
Another Biotech Bloom
The take-off in the MAXCP chart owes mostly to big
jumps by the following biotechs in the last two weeks.
Is this a sign of too much speculation? Abiding by the
Closing Power uptrends and 5-day ma trends should
help aggressive traders here.
AUPH 10.54 +183% Aurinia Pharm.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical stage pharmaceutical
company, engages in the
development of a
therapeutic drug to treat autoimmune diseases in Canada. The company�s
lead drug candidate is
Voclosporin, a calcineurin inhibitor, which is in Phase IIb clinical trial
for the treatment of
lupus nephritis. New public offering.
Prices likely rigged for that.
KITE 85.92 + 63% Kite Pharm.
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KITE/profile?p=KITE
Its lead product candidate is KTE-C19, a chimeric antigen receptor
(CAR)-based therapy that
is in Phase 2 clinical
trials for patients with relapsed or refractory aggressive diffuse large B cell
lymphoma, primary
mediastinal B cell lymphoma, and transformed follicular lymphoma. Also
conducting Phase 2
clinical trial of KTE-C19 on patients with relapsed/refractory mantle cell
lymphoma;
NLNK 21.95 +54%
New Link Genetrics
Its portfolio includes biologic product candidates based on its
HyperAcute cellular immunotherapy
technology, which
is designed to stimulate the human immune system to attack cancer cells; and
small-molecule
product candidates that are focused on breaking the immune system's tolerance
to cancer by
inhibiting the indoleamine-2, 3-dioxygenase pathway and the tryptophan-2, 3-
dioxygenase
pathway, viz, IDO pathway inhibitors comprising indoximod that is in multiple
Phase
I and Phase II
clinical trials for patients with melanoma, pancreatic cancer, malignant brain
tumors,
metastatic breast
cancer, acute myeloid leukemia, prostate cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer
(NSCLC); and
GDC-0919 and atezolizumab (MPDL3280A) that is in Phase Ib clinical trials
for patients with
locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors.
TTPH 7.77 +45%
Tetraphase
Antibiotics for the treatment of serious and life-threatening
multidrug-resistant infections. Its lead
product candidate
includes eravacycline, an intravenous and oral antibiotic for use as a
first-line
empiric monotherapy
for the treatment of multidrug-resistant infections,
EPZM 16.65 +37%
Epizyme
AQMS 21.89 +30%
IMMU 6.37 +30%
Immunomedics
ASMB 26.57 +26%
Asembly Biosciences
TO REGULARLY UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/13/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN, JJC, WEAT
3-13-2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT. OF STOCKS
ABOVE
65-DAY MA
3/13/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 100% .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .897 .852 .867 .882 .882
HOSPITAL .857 .714 .714 .714 .857 1
BEVERAGE .8 .8 .85 .85 .8 .85
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .833 .833
UTILITY .8 .777 .733 .777 .844 .844
NASD-100 .763 .763 .731 .731 .752 .774
SP-100 .731 .721 .721 .742 .762 .762
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .666 .777 .722 .722
NIFTY .714 .742 .742 .742 .771 .8
CHINA .709 .661 .645 .709 .693 .693
SOFTWARE .703 .703 .671 .671 .671 .718
MORNSTAR .68 .655 .638 .672 .71 .747
N=14
SEMI .663 .637 .646 .681 .689 .698 SP500 .658 .66 .652 .675 .695 .716 INSURANC .647 .676 .617 .588 .647 .676 INDEXES .638 .642 .659 .676 .672 .693 RUS-1000 .629 .628 .611 .643 .659 .688 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 BIOTECH .624 .604 .604 .608 .569 .608 FINANCE .612 .602 .634 .634 .666 .698 HACKERS .611 .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 COMPUTER .6 .64 .68 .68 .76 .76 MILITARY .6 .6 .6 .577 .577 .644 ELECTRON .597 .572 .582 .597 .597 .623 SOLAR .578 .526 .526 .578 .578 .631 GAMING .566 .633 .533 .6 .533 .6 CHEM .521 .478 .464 .478 .591 .577 AUTO .5 .375 .325 .425 .375 .425 TRANSP .5 .5 .35 .4 .45 .55 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 GREEN .419 .419 .419 .419 .387 .419 INDMATER .408 .346 .336 .377 .428 .479 RETAIL .392 .392 .357 .392 .357 .392 INFRA .363 .363 .272 .363 .454 .636 REGBANKS .361 .361 .388 .388 .472 .555 GOLD .339 .207 .226 .245 .226 .264
COAL .333 .333 .222 .222 .222 .333 COMODITY .295 .267 .253 .394 .45 .535 REIT .255 .255 .286 .354 .526 .588 PIPELINE .222 .222 .333 .666 .888 .777 OILGAS .183 .17 .177 .202 .265 .253 BONDFUND .117 .108 .099 .315 .405 .441 FOOD .066 .133 .2 .333 .4 .466 N=7
===========================================================================
3/10/2017
Peerless
remains on a Buy B4.
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.htm
We know that the 4 consecutive 2:1 declining stocks
to rising NYSE stocks,
which is what we saw on Friday, almost always
occurs at or near a
a market bottom.
Stick with our Buy signal despite the break
in the NYSE A/D Line uptrend
and the negative readings of the V-Indicator at the upper band. Neither
is a reliable Sell signal at this time of the year or when the Accumulation
Indexes are so positive. Most often good rallies that start in October or
December last until May, at least. Remember.
too, that the DJI normally tops
out after the NYSE A/D Line. And in 2000 and 2008, tech stocks (TECL)
and the QQQ
peaked after the DJI did. See now how the Closing Powers
of
the NASDAQ, QQQ and TECL remain in uptrends, as do their 5-day mvg.
averages.
I see nothing wrong, however, in doing some hedging.
I would stay short
Crude Oil, RETL,
Bonds and be long the Dollar versus the Euro.
It will help you to appreciate how easily anticipated our Tiger charts
anticipated
last week's breakdown in Crude Oil prices. See the charts just below.
They
showed intensive Professional Selling in UCO in the month before the breakdown.
The series of purple TigerSoft Sell S7s highlights how Closing Power was badly
diverging below price action. In Retirement Accounts, one could still go long
DTO.
Tiger CP Signal Update
and 2007 and 2008 Data Coming
Currently these Sell S7s are displayed by using the first choice under Indic-3
with a graph on the screen. Later this week, we will provide an update to
Peerless/Tiger which allows users to choose to have these purple CP divergence
B7s and S7s appear automatically when a graph first appears. You will not have
to ask for them to appear. I also want to give users a chance to see
stocks and
key ETFs as they looked back in 2007 and 2008, to see if similar major
tops are now developing given the current 8-year long bull market. The
Tiger
Data Page will soon allow alphabetically organized downloads data for 2007
and 2008. Presently, this data begins at 2009.
A Bottom Next Week?
Friday's Job Report, with a net gain of 230,000 new non farm jobs.
will probably bring the Fed to raise Rates in a week when they meet.
That event has long been expected. So, that event itself
bring a
bottom to the current decline. See below how Friday's relief rally was not
on
sufficient
volume to break the Hourly DJI's DISI Line. In addition, the DJI
has not yet tagged its support at its 21-day ma, the DJI's 5-day ma
is still falling as is its short term Closing Power.
TO REGULARLY UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/10/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
----------------- To STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others MASI REN, JJC, WEAT
3-10-2017 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/10/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .852 .867 .882 .882 .897
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 1
BEVERAGE .8 .85 .85 .8 .85 .85
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .833 .833 .8
UTILITY .777 .733 .777 .844 .844 .866
NASD-100 .763 .731 .731 .752 .774 .806
NIFTY .742 .742 .742 .771 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .722 .666 .777 .722 .722 .722
SP-100 .721 .721 .742 .762 .762 .773
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .857 1 1
SOFTWARE .703 .671 .671 .671 .718 .734
INSURANC .676 .617 .588 .647 .676 .705
N=13
SP500 .66 .652 .675 .695 .716 .733 MORNSTAR .655 .638 .672 .71 .747 .777 CHINA .65 .634 .698 .682 .682 .714 COMPUTER .64 .68 .68 .76 .76 .76 INDEXES .638 .659 .676 .672 .693 .714 SEMI .637 .646 .681 .689 .698 .724 GAMING .633 .533 .6 .533 .6 .666 RUS-1000 .629 .612 .644 .66 .688 .717 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 HACKERS .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 .722 BIOTECH .604 .604 .608 .569 .604 .632 FINANCE .602 .634 .634 .666 .698 .72 MILITARY .6 .6 .577 .577 .644 .688 ELECTRON .572 .582 .603 .597 .623 .644 SOLAR .526 .526 .578 .578 .631 .736 TRANSP .5 .35 .4 .45 .55 .6 CHEM .478 .464 .478 .591 .577 .633 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .666 GREEN .419 .419 .419 .387 .419 .516 RETAIL .392 .357 .392 .357 .392 .375 AUTO .375 .325 .425 .375 .425 .5 INFRA .363 .272 .363 .454 .636 .545 REGBANKS .361 .388 .388 .472 .583 .611 INDMATER .346 .336 .377 .428 .479 .551
COAL .333 .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 COMODITY .267 .253 .394 .45 .535 .549 REIT .255 .286 .354 .526 .588 .656 PIPELINE .222 .333 .666 .888 .777 .777 GOLD .207 .207 .264 .226 .264 .396 OILGAS .17 .177 .202 .265 .259 .284 FOOD .133 .2 .333 .4 .466 .6 BONDFUND .108 .099 .315 .405 .459 .495 N=8
====================================================================================
3/9/2017
Peerless
remains on a Buy B4.
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.htm
The over-night strength suggests that Wall Street has gotten
advance word that tomorrow's Jobs numbers will be very good.
(The President gets the report a day early. The Administration
is supposed to keep the Report secret, but clearly did not.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/05/news/economy/jobs-report-president-trump-obama/
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-white-house-may-have-broken-a-rule-with-its-jobs-report-tweets-194440338.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1
)
Hold long QQQ, TECL but stay short Bonds, Oil/Gas and RETL.
Stocks are getting oversold.. We have just
seen four straight days where
NYSE declines outnumbered advances by more than 2 to 1. By itself, this
normally registers an extremely oversold market condition, one that shows
a significant bottom is at hand or very close. But in our case now, the
DJI
has refused to sell-off and is still above its 21-day ma. One has to go
back
to the 1930s to find the only 3 earlier cases where breadth was 2:1 to the
downside
for four days and the DJI was still above the 21-day ma. Below are the
three cases.
The S3 arrows mark the spots. Declines soon followed in two cases, but in one
instance (March 1933) the market soon shot upwards and almost doubled in
space of three months.
Tomorrow the February Jobs' Report is released by the Labor Department.
It is generally expected to be quite good. Perhaps, 200,000 new non-farm
jobs
will be shown to have been added. A very positive number should spark a
brief relief-rally. But such a rally will probably give way as
traders see that
good Jobs' numbers for February will make make a rate hike in March much
more likely.
The rate hike itself later this month may then bring a trading bottom, since
this has been something the market has been expecting for sometime.
I take it as bullish signs that the DJI, the NASDAQ, QQQ and TECL
have held up so well this last week when bonds and oil stocks were being
hit particularly hard.
I should also mention that I looked back at all the cases where the DJI closed
3.3%-3.5% over the 21-day ma and showed only a barely positive V-Indicator
reading. This was what occurred on March 1st at the DJI's recent peak.
Such
a technical combination is NOT a reliable Sell signal in a rising general
market,
though it is when bear market conditions are already present. So, I would
stick
with the bullishness of the Buy B4 for now and consider a Sell S9-V to have
occurred
on March 1st or in the weak leading up to that.
I take all this to mean that the market still expects a big Public Works' fiscal
infusion
into the economy as well as more De-Regulation and very bullish Tax Cuts to
come out of this Congress, no matter how much trouble Trump gets himself into
by imprudent tweets and reality distortions.
| Jobs Reports 3/9/2017 |
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
------------------------------ TO REGULARLY
UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/9/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
XIV
YINN
--------------------- To
STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
3-9-2017
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/9/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 1 .857
ETFS .852 .867 .882 .882 .897 .882
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .8 .85 .85 .8
DOWJONES .8 .8 .833 .833 .8 .8
NIFTY .742 .742 .771 .8 .8 .8
UTILITY .733 .777 .844 .844 .866 .866
NASD-100 .731 .731 .752 .774 .806 .817
SP-100 .721 .742 .762 .762 .773 .762
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 1 1 1
COMPUTER .68 .68 .76 .76 .76 .8
SOFTWARE .671 .671 .671 .718 .734 .734
N=12
HOMEBLDG .666 .777 .722 .722 .722 .777 INDEXES .659 .676 .672 .693 .714 .697 SP500 .652 .675 .695 .716 .735 .75 SEMI .646 .681 .689 .698 .732 .75 MORNSTAR .638 .672 .71 .747 .781 .781 CHINA .634 .698 .682 .682 .714 .698 FINANCE .634 .634 .666 .698 .72 .709 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 INSURANC .617 .588 .647 .676 .705 .735 RUS-1000 .612 .644 .66 .688 .719 .734 HACKERS .611 .611 .611 .666 .722 .722 BIOTECH .604 .608 .569 .604 .632 .612 MILITARY .6 .577 .577 .644 .688 .755 ELECTRON .582 .603 .603 .623 .644 .654 GAMING .533 .6 .533 .6 .666 .633 SOLAR .526 .578 .578 .631 .736 .789 CHEM .464 .478 .591 .577 .633 .647 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .666 .555 GREEN .419 .419 .387 .419 .548 .58 REGBANKS .388 .388 .472 .583 .611 .611 RETAIL .357 .392 .357 .392 .375 .482 TRANSP .35 .4 .45 .55 .6 .55 INDMATER .336 .377 .428 .479 .551 .54
PIPELINE .333 .666 .888 .777 .777 .777 AUTO .325 .425 .375 .425 .5 .6 REIT .286 .354 .526 .588 .656 .692 INFRA .272 .363 .454 .636 .545 .545 COMODITY .253 .394 .45 .535 .535 .563 GOLD .207 .245 .245 .264 .396 .32 FOOD .2 .333 .4 .466 .6 .6 OILGAS .177 .202 .265 .259 .291 .278 COAL .125 .125 .125 .25 .25 .25 BONDFUND .099 .315 .405 .459 .513 .621 N=10
==========================================================================
3/8/2017 Peerless
remains on a Buy B4.
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.htm
But the rally is obviously splintering and sputtering.
We know that it is the DJI's job to hold up and maintain appearances that
all is well. So, I still expect the DJI not to break below its rising
21-day ma
despite the drop in the NYSE A/D Line and the
P-Indicator.
Short-term traders, I've suggested should still be long
QQQ and TECL,
but short OIH or OIL
and RETL. Shorting Bonds (shown below in the
Index of Bond Funds) is also suggested.
------------------------------ TO REGULARLY
UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/8/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
XIV
YINN
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Another sell-off in Bonds is beginning.
Though QQQ and TECL
rose today, the prospective rise
in Interest Rates again sent down Bonds, Utilities
and Gold today.
Fears of how a rate hike will effect world-wide business has also
hit Oil Prices. Crude Oil broke decisively
below its recent support,
while IWM representing the Russell-2000's smaller
companies)
broke below its 65-dma.
As a result, the NYSE A/D Line fell further below its recent
uptrendline-support
and the A/D Line for all 6000 stocks has broken
support.
Crude Oil Stocks have responded and broken their
support.
Watch
The Financials.
The Financials' big leveraged ETF, FAS, which
often mirrors the DJIA,
has recently seen a swift increase in Professional Selling. It's not real
clear if
the market - which has benefited so much from massive injections of very
cheap money for big bankers - can cope with a move towards higher
rates. The Junk Bond market has gotten hit hard in the last two trading
days.
Even Goldman Sachs' Closing Power today decisively
broke its uptrend.
Making matters worse, President Trump's running imprudences and assaults
on reality could derail what is most needed, his efforts to produce big new
investment in
infrastructure and Jobs' spending. Doubts about his leadership are growing
faster even than the wild flowers of this year's early desert Spring. As a
result,
stocks like CAT are also being heavily sold by by
Professionals and the DJI
keeps pulling back. His disappearance from sight for now will help
stabilize
the market as it regains focus on the benefits to it from lower taxes and
de-regulation.
--------------------- To
STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
3-8-2017
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/8/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .867 .882 .882 .897 .882 .97
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 1 .857 1
BEVERAGE .85 .8 .85 .85 .8 .75
DOWJONES .8 .833 .833 .8 .8 .833
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .722 .722 .777 .777
UTILITY .777 .844 .844 .866 .866 .866
NIFTY .742 .771 .8 .8 .8 .8
SP-100 .742 .762 .762 .773 .762 .804
NASD-100 .731 .752 .774 .806 .817 .817
HOSPITAL .714 .857 1 1 1 1
CHINA .698 .682 .682 .714 .682 .714
SEMI .681 .689 .698 .732 .75 .767
COMPUTER .68 .76 .76 .76 .8 .84
INDEXES .676 .672 .693 .714 .701 .76
SP500 .675 .695 .716 .735 .754 .775
MORNSTAR .672 .71 .747 .781 .794 .848
SOFTWARE .671 .671 .718 .734 .734 .75
N=18
PIPELINE .666 .888 .777 .777 .777 .777 RUS-1000 .644 .66 .688 .719 .739 .76 FINANCE .634 .666 .698 .72 .709 .784 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 HACKERS .611 .611 .666 .722 .722 .666 BIOTECH .608 .569 .604 .632 .616 .632 ELECTRON .603 .603 .628 .644 .654 .701 GAMING .6 .533 .6 .666 .633 .666 INSURANC .588 .647 .676 .705 .705 .823 SOLAR .578 .578 .631 .736 .789 .789 MILITARY .577 .577 .644 .688 .755 .822 CHEM .478 .591 .577 .633 .647 .718 JETS .444 .444 .444 .666 .666 .777 AUTO .425 .375 .425 .5 .6 .55 GREEN .419 .387 .419 .548 .58 .645 TRANSP .4 .45 .55 .6 .6 .75 COMODITY .394 .45 .535 .535 .563 .633 RETAIL .392 .357 .392 .375 .482 .392 REGBANKS .388 .472 .583 .611 .611 .805 INDMATER .377 .428 .479 .551 .54 .653 INFRA .363 .454 .636 .545 .545 .727 REIT .354 .526 .588 .656 .687 .708
FOOD .333 .4 .466 .6 .6 .733 BONDFUND .315 .405 .459 .513 .63 .774 GOLD .245 .226 .283 .396 .32 .66 COAL .222 .222 .333 .333 .333 .444 OILGAS .202 .265 .259 .291 .278 .335 N=5
===================================================================================
3/7/2017
Peerless Remains on a Buy. The Fed is
expected to boost
interest rates soon and that has hurt enough dividend-paying
stocks to cause the long standing and well tested A/D Line
to break its uptrend. More settling by the broader market is
now be expected. See my study
study of A/D
Line breaks
since 1992 and DJI.
I expect prices to keep drifting lower until the Hourly
DISI-OBV Line breaks its current downtrend.
A drop by the DJI below its 21-day (149-hour) support is not
likely so long as the key ETFs (DIA, SPY, QQQ, TECL
and FAS) all show high Accumulation (IP21) and rising Closing
Powers. Their 5-day ma are also all still
rising, but will probably
turn down tomorrow. Each has closed below tomorrow's pivot-point
by a wide margin.
Short-term Traders should probably sell some of DIA,
SPY and FAS
tomorrow unless there is a strong reversal back upwards.
Hold QQQ and TECL.
KEY ETFS
3-8
5-dma IP21
Close
Pivot Point. Current Accum
------
----------- ---------------
DIA 209.17 -.31 211.02
.372
211 is now resistance.
SPY 237.0 -.71 239.78
.368
240 is now resistance.
QQQ 130.51 -.22 131.44
.413
130 is now resistance
FAS 48.11 -.44 50.66
.381
148 is now resistance.
TECL 64.53 + .06 65.71
.502
AAPL rose today.
------------------------------ TO REGULARLY
UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/7/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
XIV
YINN
A 15% Correction Later This Year Seems Likely
Unless A Big Public Works' Program Is Passed by Congress.
The current bull market is now 8 years old. The DJI has not fallen
more than 20% from its highs since March 2009. It has had 4
corrections of 13.5% (2010), 17% (2011), 15% (2015) and 13% (2016).
Only 3 other DJI bull markets lasted longer. These each had 6-8
corrections ranging
from 10%-19.5%. So, we will probably be in need of another correction
later this year. If the Fed does raise rates, I would guess that we will
get
a Sell S9 in May. By that time the P-Indicator will probably have turned
negative and a rally to the 2.2% upper band could easily then give an S9.
1) The 1990-2000 bull market lasted longer but
and it did have a 19.5% "correction" in 1998 and
10%-13.5% retreats in 1992, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 1999.
Here there were 6 corrections.
2) We also could go back to the 1949-1962 bull market
for a comparison. That was certainly much longer than now, but
it had 10% to 13.5% corrections in 1950, 1953, 1955, 1956 (2)
and a 19% sell-off in 1957 and a 17% decline in 1960 for
a total of 7 corrections.
3) Then there was the roaring 1921-1929 bull market. It, too,
had 8 corrections ranging from 10% (1922, 1928 and 1929)
to 17% in 1923 and 1926 along with 2 13% retreats in 1924
and 1926.
If you are getting nervous, consider selling short
those sector ETFs
that show the heaviest Professional (Closing Power) selling. See all
the warning pink S7s on the charts of
CAT, KOL,
OIH, OIL and
RETL.
--------------------- To
STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
3-7-2017 Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/7/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
PIPELINE .888 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777
ETFS .882 .882 .897 .882 .97 .882
BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 .857 1 .857
HOSPITAL .857 1 1 1 1 1
UTILITY .844 .844 .866 .866 .866 .866
DOWJONES .833 .833 .8 .8 .833 .833
BEVERAGE .8 .85 .85 .8 .75 .75
NIFTY .771 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
SP-100 .762 .762 .773 .762 .804 .783
COMPUTER .76 .76 .76 .8 .84 .8
NASD-100 .752 .774 .806 .817 .817 .795
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .777 .777 .722
MORNSTAR .71 .747 .781 .794 .848 .76
SP500 .695 .716 .735 .754 .775 .733
SEMI .689 .698 .732 .75 .767 .715
CHINA .682 .682 .714 .682 .714 .698
INDEXES .672 .693 .714 .701 .76 .747
SOFTWARE .671 .718 .734 .734 .75 .75
N= 19 (falling)
FINANCE .666 .698 .72 .709 .784 .731 RUS-1000 .66 .688 .719 .739 .762 .712 INSURANC .647 .676 .705 .705 .823 .705 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .5 HACKERS .611 .666 .722 .722 .666 .666 ELECTRON .603 .628 .649 .654 .701 .644 CHEM .591 .577 .633 .647 .718 .605 SOLAR .578 .631 .736 .789 .789 .789 MILITARY .577 .644 .688 .755 .8 .733 BIOTECH .569 .604 .632 .616 .628 .592 GAMING .533 .6 .666 .633 .666 .633 REIT .526 .588 .656 .687 .708 .697 REGBANKS .472 .583 .611 .611 .805 .527 INFRA .454 .636 .545 .545 .727 .727 COMODITY .45 .535 .535 .563 .633 .619 TRANSP .45 .55 .6 .6 .75 .65 JETS .444 .444 .666 .666 .777 .666 INDMATER .428 .479 .551 .54 .663 .561 BONDFUND .405 .459 .513 .63 .783 .864 FOOD .4 .466 .6 .6 .733 .466 GREEN .387 .419 .548 .58 .645 .516 AUTO .375 .425 .5 .6 .55 .425 RETAIL .357 .392 .375 .482 .392 .41
OILGAS .265 .259 .291 .278 .348 .278 GOLD .226 .264 .415 .32 .66 .603 COAL .222 .333 .333 .333 .444 .222 N=3 N
====================================================================================
3/6/2017
Peerless Remains on a Buy. The
DJI's 50 point loss today
seems minor compared to its 3000 point gain since Trump's election.
The Fed will probably be raising rates this month. This and Trump's
seemingly crazy claims that his phones were wiretapped by Obama
might have dropped the market much more if its internals were weaker.
As it is, we are probably seeing a shallow correction that will stop
near the DJI's rising 21-day or 147-hour moving average.
Short-term Traders should be watching the key ETF's
5-day ma
pivot-points at the close tomorrow. A close below these pivot-points
means that the 5-day ma will be declining at the end of the day.
Taking short-term profits in this case is advised. Without a Peerless
Sell signal, intermediate-term traders should simply hold their positions.
The very high levels of Accumulation argue that any decline in here will be
shallow.
So does the fact that so many groups still have more than 60% of their
component stocks above the support of their 65-dma. In addition, the
key ETFs' Closing Powers are all rising, too, showing Professionals are
net buyers, not sellers.
3-6
5-dma IP21
Close
Pivot Point. Current Accum
------
----------- ---------------
DIA 209.48 -.43 207.98
.422
SPY 237.71 -.71 236.47
.418
QQQ 130.73 -.29 130.02
.453
FAS 48.55 -.77 47.79
.425
TECL 64.47 -.20 63.11
.508
A Peerless Sell Is Unlikely.
There is only a small chance that we will get a Sell S4 if the Accumulation
Index closes below its 21-day ma. This IS what happened in
February
1994 when Greenspan
rather unexpectedly raised short-term rates. An 11%
DJI decline then followed. The market's internals are stronger now and
a rate hike is expected. Without a Sell S4, I would not take any break in
the Accumulation Index to be a Sell. Very few such breaks without a Sell
S4
would have made good Sell signals in markets with as much upward momentum
as we have seen until very recently. See my
study of "would-be Sell
S4s since 1992.
Well-Tested NYSE A/D Line Uptrend Was Broken Today.
The Rise in Short-Term
Rates Predicts Fed will boost interest rates.
Expect this to hurt bond funds, REITs and other dividend plays.
It will also probably bring a bigger break in the NYSE A/D Line uptrend.
It will not necessarily weaken the DJI. Since 1991, breaks in
well tested A/D Lines were nearly twice as likely to come too late
in a DJI pull-back to profitably use the break as a Sell, as we once
did in the 1980s. See
study of A/D
Line breaks since 1992 and DJI.
We will likely know the profit-taking is over
when the DJI again starts moving
up into positive territory after a weak opening AND when the Hourly
DISI-OBV Line breaks its downtrend. See the Hourly chart just
below.
------------------------------ TO REGULARLY
UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/6/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
3-6-2017
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/6/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOSPITAL 1 1 1 1 1 1
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .882 .897 .882 .97 .882 .941
BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 1 .857 .857
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .8 .75 .75 .7
UTILITY .844 .866 .866 .866 .866 .866
DOWJONES .833 .8 .8 .833 .833 .866
NIFTY .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .857
PIPELINE .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .666
NASD-100 .774 .806 .817 .817 .795 .838
SP-100 .762 .773 .762 .804 .783 .793
COMPUTER .76 .76 .8 .84 .8 .8
MORNSTAR .747 .781 .794 .848 .764 .869
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .777 .777 .722 .777
SOFTWARE .718 .734 .734 .75 .75 .812
SP500 .715 .733 .752 .773 .733 .762
FINANCE .698 .72 .709 .784 .741 .806
SEMI .698 .732 .75 .767 .715 .784
INDEXES .693 .714 .701 .76 .747 .731
RUS-1000 .688 .719 .739 .762 .713 .76
CHINA .682 .714 .682 .714 .698 .698
INSURANC .676 .705 .705 .823 .676 .705
N = 22
HACKERS .666 .722 .722 .666 .666 .722 MILITARY .644 .688 .755 .8 .733 .8 INFRA .636 .545 .545 .727 .727 .727 SOLAR .631 .736 .789 .789 .789 .789 ELECTRON .628 .649 .659 .701 .644 .716 EDU .625 .625 .625 .625 .5 .5 BIOTECH .604 .632 .616 .628 .588 .652 GAMING .6 .666 .633 .666 .633 .733 REIT .588 .656 .687 .708 .703 .77 REGBANKS .583 .611 .611 .805 .555 .75 CHEM .577 .633 .647 .718 .605 .591 TRANSP .55 .6 .6 .75 .65 .65 COMODITY .535 .535 .563 .633 .633 .549 INDMATER .479 .551 .54 .663 .561 .581 BONDFUND .459 .513 .63 .783 .882 .837 JETS .444 .666 .666 .777 .666 .666 FOOD .428 .571 .571 .714 .428 .214 AUTO .425 .5 .6 .55 .425 .55 GREEN .419 .548 .58 .645 .516 .58 RETAIL .392 .375 .482 .392 .41 .482 COAL .333 .333 .333 .444 .222 .444
GOLD .264 .396 .339 .66 .603 .566 OILGAS .259 .291 .278 .348 .278 .297 N=2
==================================================================================
3/3/2017
Peerless Remains on a
Buy. But next week should start on a down
note. Trump's bizarre claims that Obama was wire-tapping him in
2016 will no doubt un-nerve some investors. After all, the President
has the power to start a nuclear war. It's fast getting to the point where
no one really knows what to expect next from him and Wall Street
likes things to be predictable and reliable. If he would just stick to
arguing for his economic plans, Wall Street would be a lot happier.
Then, we would only have to cope with the likelihood of a Rate Hike by the
FED
in two weeks.
But this is long expected and should be no problem.
The Hourly DJIA chart below shows the 21-day ma (147-hour) Line
where support is expected. It shows the OBV-DISI downtrend that
must be broken above to end the minor decline we are seeing.
In a few days, Trump's remarks on Obama wire-tapping him will cease
being news and stocks should rebound. The upward momentum will win out.
Without more
internal technical weakness (very heavy down volume and very
bad breadth), I would expect the DJI not to fall much below the
support of its rising 21-day ma. Continue to watch the Hourly DJIA.
A break in
the recent OBV/DISI downtrend should bring a rebound rally to 21100.
Watch breadth and volume tomorrow. The NYSE A/D Line uptrend looks solid.
For now, the 5-day moving averages are rising for all our most favored
ETFs, as are their Closing Powers.
Short-term traders should stick with their long positions in DIA, SPY,
QQQ, FAS and
TECL unless they close below their 5-day ma pivot points.
If these should be exited, plan to retake the positions when they next close
above their pivot-points. However, the falling SPY/DIA Relative Strength
Quotient Line warns to avoid SPY in favor of the others.
The NASDAQ and IWM are underperforming the DJIA. This has become
a high-cap market advance. The expected rise in interest rates
hinders
smaller companies more than the large caps, as a general rule.
It may
be that NYSE breadth will start to deteriorate compared to the DJI.
That has no happened yet. The next rally will not easily produce a Sell
most likely until the Tiger Accum. Index falls below its 21-day ma.
------------------------------ TO
REGULARLY UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
3/3/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
3-3-2017
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/3/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 .857 1 .857 .857 .857
HOSPITAL 1 1 1 1 1 1
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .882 .97 .882 .941 .941
UTILITY .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 .888
BEVERAGE .85 .8 .75 .75 .7 .75
NASD-100 .804 .815 .815 .793 .836 .836
DOWJONES .8 .8 .833 .833 .866 .866
NIFTY .8 .8 .8 .8 .857 .857
MORNSTAR .781 .794 .848 .764 .869 .827
PIPELINE .777 .777 .777 .777 .666 .777
SP-100 .773 .762 .804 .783 .793 .793
COMPUTER .76 .8 .84 .8 .8 .8
SOLAR .736 .789 .789 .789 .789 .789
SP500 .735 .754 .775 .735 .766 .754
SOFTWARE .734 .734 .75 .75 .796 .812
SEMI .732 .75 .767 .715 .784 .775
HACKERS .722 .722 .666 .666 .722 .722
HOMEBLDG .722 .777 .777 .722 .777 .722
FINANCE .72 .709 .784 .741 .806 .774
RUS-1000 .719 .739 .762 .713 .76 .737
CHINA .714 .682 .714 .698 .698 .714
INDEXES .714 .701 .76 .747 .735 .731
INSURANC .705 .705 .823 .676 .705 .735
MILITARY .688 .755 .8 .733 .777 .688
N=26
GAMING .666 .633 .666 .633 .7 .666 JETS .666 .666 .777 .666 .666 .666 REIT .656 .687 .708 .703 .77 .739 ELECTRON .649 .659 .706 .644 .716 .701 CHEM .633 .647 .718 .605 .605 .591 BIOTECH .628 .616 .628 .588 .652 .569 EDU .625 .625 .625 .5 .5 .5 REGBANKS .611 .611 .805 .555 .75 .666 FOOD .6 .6 .733 .466 .333 .6 TRANSP .6 .6 .75 .65 .65 .65 INDMATER .551 .54 .663 .561 .591 .602 GREEN .548 .58 .645 .516 .58 .483 INFRA .545 .545 .727 .727 .727 .545 COMODITY .535 .563 .633 .633 .577 .661 BONDFUND .513 .63 .783 .882 .846 .891 AUTO .5 .6 .55 .425 .575 .475 GOLD .403 .326 .673 .615 .576 .826 RETAIL .375 .482 .392 .41 .464 .446
COAL .333 .333 .444 .222 .444 .444 OILGAS .291 .284 .354 .278 .297 .291 N=2
===================================================================================
3/2/2017 Peerless Remains on
a Buy. Leading ETFS will most likely
fall back only to their rising 21-day ma. Once the
natural urge to take
profits is over, I would think aggressive buyers will
again come into the
market. The key ETFs have not yet broken their steep
uptrends. There
are no signs of Distribution and no head/shoulders
patterns. Lagging
Hourly Up volume probably means a period of positive
consolidation.
While short-term traders are being invited to take
profits, sharp sell-offs are
commonly quite brief in bull markets.
I would just hold long position
in DIA, SPY, QQQ, FAS and TECL.
DJIA
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/DATA.gif
DIA
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/DIA.gif
SPY
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/SPY.gif
QQQ
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/QQQ.gif
TECL
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/TECL.gif
FAS
www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/FAS.gif
Republicans in Congress and the Trump
Administration will now be placing
a high priority on TAX CUTS as a way to spur the stock
market onward
and upward. But they will have to go beyond this and
move on Public
Works. (A Domestic Marshall Plan could be justified.)
Otherwise, there
will be a stock subsidence while the market waits to see
if the FED is
going to boost rates.
My guess is that we will keep getting a steady
stream of bullish news
from Congress and the Administration. Republicans in
Congress fully
appreciate that a big, brash bull market has much more
public appeal than
worrying about the big, bad Russian bear, as orthodox
Democrats,
CNN and the New York Times are now wont to do, to the
point of it being an
obsession.
By itself, tax cuts will certainly boost the stock
market. But that may not
translate into a lasting economic boom based on a surge
of consumer buying.
In the 1920s, the Republican Bull Market was heavily
dependent on
breakthroughs in consumer goods (autos, radios, home
appliances,
movies and airplanes) and in new ways for ordinary folks
to finance
the purchase of these things. There is not much like
this now. So, without a huge
Public Works program, the danger is that the stock market
will eventually
again far outpace the Real Economy, as it did finally in
1929. But we are
not even close to that point now.
Again look at the DJI chart of 1929. Our A/D
Line now is rising.
In 1929, the NYSE A/D Line was falling, showing that more
and more companies
were suffering sales' and profits' declines. Our
Accumulation Index is
very blue (positive) now. In 1929, our Accumulation
Index turned a red for
months before the DJI topped out. Insiders had become
heavy sellers.
DJI - 1929 www.tigersoftware.com/PICS/DATA1929.gif
------------------------------ TO REGULARLY UPDATED CHARTS
--------------------------------
3/2/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
Crude
Oil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others
REN,
JJC,
WEAT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/2/2017
Bullish Special Situations
MASI www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/MASI.gif
AZPN www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/AZPN.gif
CNP www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/CNP.gif
STM www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/STM.gif
Bearish Special Situations
TEVA
www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/TEVA.gif
HK
www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/HK.gif
GPRO www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/GPRO.gif
BKS
www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/BKS.gif
BBOX
www.tigersoftware.com/HL/3-2-2017/BBOX.gif
===================================================================================
2/29/2017 to 3/1/2017
Please go to
http://www.tigersoftware.com/HL/INDEX.html
|
====================================================================================
2/28/2017
Peerless Buy B4 still stands.
Seasonality remains distinctly Bullish for the next two months when we look at
how the
DJI did since 1965 after the end of February. This should give us
confidence to hold
most long positions until Peerless gives a new Sell.
Trading Days Pct of Years Avg, DJI Gain
from Now DJI rose
------------- ------------- ---------------
5
59.2% 0.5%
10
65.3% 0.9%
21
73.5% 1.3%
42
79.6% 3.8%
Peerless has given no Sell despite the negative V-I readings as the DJI
approached
the upper band. This is because of the presence of a number of bullish
factors.
Technically, the general markets are at all time highs where the path of least
resistance
is usually up. Breadth has been superb. The A/D Line keeps making
its own new highs
and the P-Indicator is well above +200. The Accumulation Indexes are very
high
and the Closing Powers are in uptrend. Seasonality is usually bullish
until late April.
Fundamentally, Trump and the Republican Congress will be cutting taxes on
corporations
and the wealthy by amounts that should make profits rise by 15% next year, all
other
things being equal. But they are not equal. De-regulation will also
boost profits.
There are unknowns, of course. There could be ugly surprises.
To guard against these, we watch what Professionals are doing by monitoring
the key ETFs' Closing Power uptrends. So far, they are rising. SPY's
is probably the most
important to watch. Note how high its current IP21 is and the fact that
its Closing
Power (Professional Buying) is much closer to its highs than Opening Power
(Public Buying).
Professionals are more bullish than the Public is. This usually means
higher prices for
a while longer.
But it SPY's steep Closing Uptrend is violated, there is good chance it will
fall back to its
lower band. The history of SPY since 1996 shows that even when its IP21
(Current AI) has
reached +.41 or higher, the odds are better than 50% that SPY will fell down to
near
the lower band or lower when SPY's Closing Power uptrend is finally
broken.
Accordingly, reducing long positions when this occurs will be advised even if
Peerless
has not given a Sell Signal or, at the least, hedging with shorts in some of
weakest stocks
and ETFs. For example, see OIH. Note its heavy Red Distribution and
how its
Closing Power is plunging to new lows.
Does A Very High
IP21 Mean We Can Disregard
A Break in SPY's Closing Power Uptrend?
In 9 of the 17 cases since 1995, when SPY's CP steep uptrendline was
broken, SPY fell nearly to the lower band or more.
March 1995 SPY just kept rising
Sept 1995 SPY went sidewise until it tagged rising 65-dma and
then rose.
Feb 7 1996 SPY fell back to LB and rising
65-dma when CP uptrend was broken.
Oct. 22, 2001 SPY fell back only to 21-dma and then
rose strongly.
March 21, 2003 SPY fell back only to 21-dma and then
rose strongly.
Sept 2003 SPY fell back only to 21-dma and then rose
strongly.
Jan 15 2004 SPY fell back to lower band.
Oct 23, 2006 SPY fell back only to 21-dma and
then rose strongly.
Feb 2007 SPY fell back to lower band.
April 2007 When CP uptrend broken, SPY fell 9%.
March 2010 When CP uptrend broken, SPY fell 10%
H/S appeared!
Feb 8 2012 SPY fell only to 21- dma and rise
strongly.
May 17 2013 SPY fell to lower band.
Nov 2013 SPY kept rallying.
June 2014 SPY fell to 65-dma, half way between LB and MA.
Nov 2014 SPY fell to lower band.
March 2016 SPY went sidewise for months.
Oct 2016 SPY fell nearly to lower band.
(See all of these
charts.)
2/28/2017:
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH (Biotechs)
BRZU
(Brazil) FAS (Banks)
GASL
(Natl Gas) GLD (Gold)
IBB
(Biotechs) JETS
(Airlines)
JJC
(copper)
JNUG (Junior
gold stocks)
KOL
(Coal) NIB
(Cocoa)
NUGT
(Gold Stocks) OIH (Oil
Services)
OIL
(Crude Oil)
RSX (Russia)
RETL (Retail) SLV (Silver)
SOXL (Semi-Conductors) TECL (Techs)
TMF (20-Year
Bond) TNA
(Leveraged Russ-2000),
UCO (Crude
Oil)
VGK (Utilities)
WEAT (wheat) YINN
(China)
.
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
2/27/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/28/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOSPITAL 1 1 1 .857 .857 .857
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
BONDFUND .882 .846 .891 .819 .774 .738
ETFS .882 .941 .941 .955 .955 .985
UTILITY .866 .866 .888 .888 .844 .911
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .833 .833 .866
COMPUTER .8 .8 .84 .8 .8 .8
NIFTY .8 .857 .857 .828 .828 .828
NASD-100 .795 .838 .838 .817 .849 .849
SOLAR .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 .789
SP-100 .783 .793 .793 .783 .793 .783
PIPELINE .777 .666 .777 .888 .888 .888
MORNSTAR .764 .869 .836 .819 .857 .89
BEVERAGE .75 .7 .75 .75 .8 .85
SOFTWARE .75 .796 .812 .796 .796 .796
INDEXES .743 .735 .731 .731 .743 .756
FINANCE .741 .806 .774 .827 .827 .817
MILITARY .733 .777 .688 .666 .755 .777
SP500 .733 .765 .758 .752 .773 .779
INFRA .727 .727 .545 .545 .727 .727
HOMEBLDG .722 .777 .722 .722 .666 .722
SEMI .716 .783 .775 .783 .808 .841
RUS-1000 .713 .76 .741 .742 .758 .776
CHINA .703 .703 .718 .718 .734 .718
REIT .703 .77 .744 .776 .729 .791
INSURANC .684 .71 .736 .789 .763 .71
N=27
HACKERS .666 .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 TRANSP .65 .65 .65 .55 .65 .65 ELECTRON .649 .721 .711 .701 .721 .757 COMODITY .633 .577 .647 .69 .704 .746 GAMING .633 .7 .666 .666 .7 .7 CHEM .605 .605 .591 .591 .676 .647 GOLD .603 .566 .83 .867 .849 .886 BIOTECH .591 .653 .571 .556 .575 .626 INDMATER .56 .59 .6 .62 .71 .73 REGBANKS .555 .75 .666 .833 .805 .777 GREEN .516 .58 .483 .548 .516 .612 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 FOOD .466 .333 .6 .8 .8 .8 AUTO .425 .575 .475 .55 .6 .625 RETAIL .41 .464 .446 .375 .446 .446
OILGAS .287 .306 .306 .368 .375 .493 COAL .222 .444 .444 .444 .555 .666 N=2
======================================================================================================
2/27/2017
Peerless Buy B4 still stands. Speculators are becoming more
aggressive.
As long as the openings are relatively weak and the closings are near
the days' highs,
we will see the Closing Powers for the key ETFS rising and their current
Accumulation
stay at very high levels. These are usually bullish signs. They show
Professional rather than
Public net buying. And as prices for the much watched averages keep
rising, confidence builds.
So, even though the DJI has now risen 12 straight days, I think we have to
expect higher prices.
The slow movement in the DJI upward of late owes to its reaching the top of its
price channel.
The regression channel shows an upper band 3 standard deviations above the least
squares' line.
Today's action showed new strength in IWM - ETF for the Russell-2000. This
is a
sign that speculators are turning to smaller stocks. This is normal and
healthy for a while.
An aggressive way to play the market now is by finding the best performing
individual stocks
that show several characteristics. Buy them on trading range breakouts or
after dips back to
their 21-day and 65-day mvg.avgs when their Closing Powers hook back up.I will
start posting
these stocks as DOUBLERS on the Tiger Data Page tomorrow so they can be
regularly downloaded.
I will also display some of their graphs on our MAXCP lists here.
NEW HIGHS' DOUBLERS' REQUIREMENTS
1) The stock has more than doubled in the last 200 days;
2) The stock has a current Accumulation Index above +.37 and is above its rising
21-dma;
3) The stock has an AI/200 score above 147;
4) the stock's Closing Power is uptrending (above its 21-dma)
5) the stock has just made a new high.
I will start posting these stocks as DOUBLERS on the Tiger Data Page tomorrow
and
will display some of their graphs on our MAXCP lists here.
C:\doublers Days back= 200 5 / 11 / 2016 - 2 / 27 / 2017 Rank Symbol Name Price Pct.Gain AI/200 --------- ----------------------------------- ---------- ------------ ------- 1 GRVY Gravity Co 36.03 833% 143 2 ASMB Assembly Biosciences Inc 21.18 339% 164 3 KEM KEMET Corp 11.12 324% 51.6% 144 4 AMD Advanced Micro Devices 15.2 316% 147 5 GV Goldfield Corp 7.85 199% 161 6 STM STMicroelectronics NV ADR 15.53 187% 168 7 TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares 90.55 105% 171 8 TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd 23.12 104% 157
2/27/2017:
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH (Biotechs)
BRZU
(Brazil) FAS (Banks)
GASL
(Natl Gas) GLD (Gold)
IBB
(Biotechs) JETS
(Airlines)
JJC
(copper)
JNUG (Junior
gold stocks)
KOL
(Coal) NIB
(Cocoa)
NUGT
(Gold Stocks) OIH (Oil
Services)
OIL
(Crude Oil)
RSX (Russia)
RETL (Retail) SLV (Silver)
SOXL (Semi-Conductors) TECL (Techs)
TMF (20-Year
Bond) TNA
(Leveraged Russ-2000),
UCO (Crude
Oil)
VGK (Utilities)
WEAT (wheat) YINN
(China)
.
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
2/27/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/27/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOSPITAL 1 1 .857 .857 .857 .857
ETFS .941 .941 .955 .955 .985 .97
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846
MORNSTAR .869 .836 .819 .857 .894 .857
DOWJONES .866 .866 .833 .833 .866 .8
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
NIFTY .857 .857 .828 .828 .828 .828
BONDFUND .846 .891 .819 .774 .738 .675
NASD-100 .838 .838 .817 .849 .838 .827
FINANCE .806 .774 .827 .827 .817 .827
COMPUTER .8 .84 .8 .8 .8 .84
SOFTWARE .796 .812 .796 .796 .796 .796
SP-100 .793 .793 .783 .793 .783 .752
SOLAR .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 .789
SEMI .783 .775 .791 .808 .841 .825
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .722 .666 .722 .611
MILITARY .777 .688 .666 .755 .777 .733
REIT .77 .744 .776 .729 .791 .697
SP500 .765 .758 .752 .773 .779 .748
RUS-1000 .76 .741 .742 .758 .776 .747
REGBANKS .75 .666 .833 .805 .777 .75
INDEXES .735 .731 .731 .743 .756 .743
INFRA .727 .545 .545 .727 .727 .727
HACKERS .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 .722
ELECTRON .721 .711 .706 .721 .757 .731
INSURANC .71 .736 .789 .763 .71 .736
CHINA .703 .718 .718 .734 .718 .703
BEVERAGE .7 .75 .75 .8 .85 .75
GAMING .7 .666 .666 .7 .7 .7
N=29
JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 PIPELINE .666 .777 .888 .888 .888 .888 BIOTECH .653 .571 .56 .575 .614 .661 TRANSP .65 .65 .55 .65 .65 .65 UTILITY .65 .65 .55 .65 .65 .65 CHEM .605 .591 .591 .676 .661 .647 INDMATER .59 .6 .62 .71 .73 .72 GREEN .58 .483 .548 .516 .612 .548 COMODITY .577 .647 .69 .704 .746 .676 AUTO .575 .475 .55 .6 .625 .55 GOLD .566 .811 .886 .849 .886 .924 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 RETAIL .464 .446 .375 .446 .446 .428 COAL .444 .444 .444 .555 .666 .666
FOOD .333 .6 .8 .8 .8 .733
Big drop here....
OILGAS .306 .306 .368 .375 .5 .418
======================================================================================================
2/24/2017
Peerless Buy B4 still stands.
The S9-V that the Peerless program now
shows for Friday does not take into account the
special bullishness of what are now 11 straight DJI-Up days.
See the charts since 1915
where the DJI was up 10 Straight DJI-Up Days
(The limited Saturday trading before 1952
is omitted).
In addition, that the DJI's current IP21 (Accumulation Index) is now a very
positive, + .16 and the
P-I is a very positive +240. These bullish key values should be factored
in, I think. With these
key values, a DJI usually keeps rising even though it is more than 2.4% above
its 21-day ma
and shows a negative V-I. By this criteria, the odds for a significant
additional rally are DJI 2:1.
A decline below the lower band never occurred in the 12 bull
market instances of very positive IP21s
combined with V-I negative readings as the DJI approached the upper band.
See these charts.
Accordingly, I have revised Peerless today and it shows the following DJI chart.
This update is
is available on the ESP Page.
Past Cases V-I <0 and LA/MA>1.024 but P-I>200 and IP21>.15
Bull Market Environments: 10 rallies
5 declines
2/6/1951 - DJI fell to lower band but no good Buy
signal there. V-I was estimated before 1965.
7/6/1954 - DJI went much higher.
9/24/1954 - DJI fell 2% before lower band and then
went much higher.
7/6/1956 - DJI rose 3% more before falling 10%.
4/24/1957 - DJI kept rising for 10 more weeks.
7/22/1958 - DJI went much higher.
8/7/1979 - DJI rose for two months.
Jan1996 - DJI went much higher.
July 2009 - DJI went much higher.
11/25/2009 - DJI went much higher.
(7/26/2010 - DJI fell to lower band - A different
Peerless Sell also occurred here.)
2/9/2011 - DJI fell to lower band.
Oct 2015 - DJI rose another month
11/4/2015 - fell to lower 3% band.
2/25/2016 - DJI went much higher.
PROS HAVE BECOME AGGRESSIVE BUYERS JUST AS
PUBLIC HAS SWITCHED AND BECOME SELLERS
2/24/2017:
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH (Biotechs)
BRZU
(Brazil) FAS (Banks)
GASL
(Natl Gas) GLD (Gold)
IBB
(Biotechs) JETS
(Airlines)
JJC
(copper)
JNUG (Junior
gold stocks)
KOL
(Coal) NIB
(Cocoa)
NUGT
(Gold Stocks) OIH (Oil
Services)
OIL
(Crude Oil)
RSX (Russia)
RETL (Retail) SLV (Silver)
SOXL (Semi-Conductors) TECL (Techs)
TMF (20-Year
Bond) TNA
(Leveraged Russ-2000),
UCO (Crude
Oil)
VGK (Utilities)
WEAT (wheat) YINN
(China)
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
2/24/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/24/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOSPITAL 1 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
ETFS .941 .955 .955 .985 .97 .955
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923
BONDFUND .891 .819 .774 .738 .675 .603
UTILITY .888 .888 .844 .911 .8 .822
DOWJONES .866 .833 .833 .866 .8 .8
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
NIFTY .857 .828 .828 .828 .828 .828
COMPUTER .84 .8 .8 .8 .84 .84
NASD-100 .838 .817 .849 .838 .827 .806
MORNSTAR .836 .819 .857 .894 .857 .878
SOFTWARE .812 .796 .796 .796 .796 .765
GOLD .811 .867 .867 .886 .924 .924
SP-100 .793 .783 .793 .783 .752 .752
SOLAR .789 .789 .789 .789 .789 .684
PIPELINE .777 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
SEMI .775 .791 .816 .841 .816 .775
FINANCE .774 .827 .827 .817 .827 .827
SP500 .758 .752 .773 .779 .748 .76
BEVERAGE .75 .75 .8 .85 .75 .65
REIT .744 .776 .729 .791 .703 .708
RUS-1000 .741 .742 .758 .776 .748 .754
INSURANC .736 .789 .763 .71 .763 .763
INDEXES .731 .731 .743 .756 .743 .764
HACKERS .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 .722
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .666 .722 .611 .611
CHINA .718 .718 .734 .718 .703 .703
ELECTRON .711 .706 .726 .757 .731 .711
MILITARY .688 .666 .755 .777 .755 .733
N=29
GAMING .666 .666 .7 .7 .7 .633 JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 REGBANKS .666 .833 .805 .777 .75 .694 COMODITY .652 .694 .708 .75 .68 .68 TRANSP .65 .55 .65 .65 .65 .65 FOOD .6 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 INDMATER .6 .62 .71 .73 .72 .75 CHEM .591 .591 .676 .661 .647 .647 BIOTECH .571 .56 .579 .614 .657 .653 INFRA .545 .545 .727 .727 .727 .727 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .375 GREEN .483 .548 .516 .612 .58 .516 AUTO .475 .55 .6 .625 .55 .55 RETAIL .446 .375 .446 .446 .428 .392 COAL .444 .444 .555 .666 .666 .666
OILGAS .306 .368 .375 .5 .431 .468
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------====
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/23/2017 Peerless Buy B4 tells us to
expect DJI to still go high and likely much higher if it can
breakout above its price channel. A price-channel breakout asserts a
target of 22500! But Up Volume
is low. Still, the Trump economic agenda matches Coolidge's in 1925 and
that was a very good year.
Watch now to see signs of what the Fed plans to do in March and
whether Congressional Republicans
will go along with Trump's expansionist and expensive Public Works program.
The market seems to
be saying the Fed will not raise rates in March (Utilities have recovered
most of losses from end of
last year but Republicans have not mentioned Oroville Dame and Infrastructure
spending. Not for nothing,
CAT shows unusually heavy Professional Selling.)
Notice Gold's continued recovery, too. This would also be in
keeping with US interest rates not going up because the Fed does not see strong
enough signs of growth to
to raise. Presumably some on the Fed recall the Crashes in 1929 and 1937
occurred when the FED tightened
to stop rising stock markets exactly when the Economy itself was weakening.
Crude Oil (UCO) and Drillers (OIH) also shows unusually heavy
Professional Selling.
If the world economy were on the cusp of a new era of growth, one would
expect Professionals
to be net buyers, not net sellers here. The renewed selling in RETL warns
that any Trump recovery, so far,
has not yet trickled down to most ordinary folks. It is
still up to the Big Banks, the DJI-13 and Tech Stocks
in the US to keep the rally going.
10 Straight DJI-Up Days Is Very Bullish.
The fact that the DJI has now risen 10 straight days is extraordinarily bullish
if the past history
of the market back to 1915 is used to judge the future.
7 of 8 instances brought big advances.
I have to check the January 1915 occurrence. It might have occurred in
December 1915 at a
lower point. This should probably be made into
its own Buy Signal when DJI makes a 6-mo high...
In the charts showm,
it is posted as a Buy B3. As such it should probably
suppress Sells for a while, too.
Jan 1915
- Though there was one more DJI decline to the lower band, the rest of the year
enjoyed
the biggest one-year gain ever. (Saturday's abbreviated trading not
considered.)
Jan 1921 - The exception. This was only a bear market.
July 1927 - Up and away.
(Saturday's abbreviated trading not considered.)
July 1929 - Still more upside even in a technically weak market.
Jan 1955 - A great time to buy
Dec 1970 -
Lowered interest rates launched the 1970-1973 Bull Market here.
Jan 1987 - Reagan Bull Market
June 1987 - Still more upside until clear-cut Sell S9/S12 in October 1987.
Why No Sell S9-V?
Even
though the V-Indicator fell as Down Volume on NYSE outpaced UP Volume by 200
million
shares, we got no new S9-V. This is because the program's rules do not not
allow a Sell-S9-V in
February, March or most of April if the DJI is up more than 10% over the last
65-trading days.
It is now up 10.085%. In addition, the last S9-V cannot repeat for a week.
2/23/2017:
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH
BRZU Crude Oil
FAS GLD
IBB JETS
JJC
JNUG KOL
NUGT OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL SLV
SOXL TECL
TMF TNA
UCO VGK
WEAT YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
2/23/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/23/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .955 .955 .985 .97 .955 .955
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923
PIPELINE .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
UTILITY .888 .844 .911 .8 .822 .755
GOLD .867 .849 .905 .924 .924 .924
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 1
DOWJONES .833 .833 .866 .8 .8 .766
REGBANKS .833 .805 .777 .75 .694 .722
NIFTY .828 .828 .828 .828 .828 .828
FINANCE .827 .827 .817 .827 .827 .827
BONDFUND .819 .774 .738 .675 .612 .576
MORNSTAR .819 .857 .894 .857 .878 .903
NASD-100 .817 .849 .838 .827 .806 .817
COMPUTER .8 .8 .8 .84 .84 .8
FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
SOFTWARE .796 .796 .796 .796 .765 .75
SEMI .791 .816 .841 .816 .775 .783
INSURANC .789 .763 .71 .763 .763 .71
SOLAR .789 .789 .789 .789 .684 .736
SP-100 .783 .793 .783 .752 .752 .773
REIT .776 .729 .791 .703 .713 .677
SP500 .752 .773 .779 .748 .762 .775
BEVERAGE .75 .8 .85 .75 .65 .75
RUS-1000 .742 .758 .776 .748 .756 .765
INDEXES .731 .743 .756 .743 .76 .764
HACKERS .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 .777
HOMEBLDG .722 .666 .722 .611 .611 .611
CHINA .718 .734 .718 .703 .703 .671
ELECTRON .706 .726 .757 .731 .711 .711
COMODITY .694 .708 .75 .68 .694 .722
Pct = 31 -4
GAMING .666 .7 .7 .7 .633 .7 JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 MILITARY .666 .755 .777 .755 .711 .688 INDMATER .62 .71 .73 .72 .75 .74 CHEM .591 .676 .661 .647 .647 .619 BIOTECH .56 .579 .618 .657 .642 .645 AUTO .55 .6 .625 .55 .55 .6 TRANSP .55 .65 .65 .65 .65 .75 GREEN .548 .516 .612 .58 .516 .548 INFRA .545 .727 .727 .727 .727 .727 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .375 .5 COAL .444 .555 .666 .666 .666 .555 RETAIL .375 .446 .446 .428 .392 .428 OILGAS .368 .375 .5 .431 .481 .512
======================================================================================================
2/22/2017 Peerless Buy B4 tells us to
expect DJI to still go high and likely much higher if it can
breakout above its price channel. The
A/D Line, Hourly DISI-OBV, High-Priced DJI-13 and
ETFs' Closing Powers are all bullishly rising. The high levels of
Accumulation for the major
market ETFs give us confidence that there will be lots of big money coming in to
support the
the continuation of the advance if there is a pullback here. My favorite
long positions remain
QQQ, TECL, FAS and BRZU. I would not add
to them tomorrow.
This is because there remains the problem of low NYSE
Up Volume. Another day like today where
NYSE Down Volume is greater than Up Volume by 230 million could bring another
Peerless S9V.
But that remains to be seen. So, I would simply hold long positions
and generally avoid the short side. The V-Indicator
was +8 today and the DJI closed 2.6% above the 21-day ma. A close DJI 2.4%
above the 21-day ma with the V-I negative
could bring a new Sell S9-V if the P-Indicator weakens, too. (The V-I is the
21-day ma of 85% of Up Volume
minus 100% of Down Volume. )
Numbers Being Dropped Off Affecting P-I and V-I
Adv Dec Up Vol
Down Vol
Thurs - 1/24/2017
2234 793 645 mil
215 mil
Friday - 1/25/2017
1947 1080 609 mil
252 mil
Note DJI's Buy B4 and rising NYSE A/D Line.
Note Hourly DJI's accelerating uptrend and confirming OBV-DISI Line.
Note DJIA-13's uptrends and confirming A/D Line
Note how SPY's Closing Power is rising and its current Accumulation (IP21)
remains very positive.
Fed is cautious about raising rates despite Big Rise in
Market
NY TImes reports that a "core group" of Feds on Open Market Committee remain
cautious about raising rates.
A rise in rates in March is by no means a certainty.
(
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/business/economy/federal-reserve-minutes.html?emc=edit_th_20170223&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894&_r=0
)
2/22/2017:
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH
BRZU Crude Oil
FAS GLD
IBB JETS
JJC
JNUG KOL
NUGT OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL SLV
SOXL TECL
TMF TNA
UCO VGK
WEAT YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
2/22/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
5 Stocks with IP21>.50 and FASTUP 5-day ma:
Pct up since 11/4 Election IP21
SHLO
+123%
.52
MASI
+ 52%
.53
ANET
+ 46% .50
These should get support at their 5-day ma and can be traded using their 5-day
ma turns.
2/22/2017
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/22/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .955 .985 .97 .955 .955 .955
DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923
PIPELINE .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 1 .857
MORNSTAR .857 .894 .857 .878 .907 .873
GOLD .849 .886 .943 .924 .924 .924
NASD-100 .849 .838 .827 .806 .817 .763
UTILITY .844 .911 .8 .822 .755 .777
DOWJONES .833 .866 .8 .8 .766 .766
NIFTY .828 .828 .828 .828 .828 .828
FINANCE .827 .817 .827 .827 .838 .827
SEMI .816 .841 .816 .775 .766 .733
REGBANKS .805 .777 .75 .694 .722 .75
BEVERAGE .8 .85 .75 .65 .75 .65
COMPUTER .8 .8 .84 .84 .8 .84
FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
SOFTWARE .796 .796 .796 .765 .75 .75
SP-100 .793 .783 .752 .752 .773 .762
SOLAR .789 .789 .789 .684 .736 .736
BONDFUND .774 .738 .675 .612 .567 .738
SP500 .773 .779 .748 .762 .775 .756
INSURANC .763 .71 .763 .763 .71 .763
RUS-1000 .758 .776 .748 .756 .768 .756
MILITARY .755 .777 .755 .711 .688 .688
INDEXES .739 .756 .743 .76 .752 .764
CHINA .734 .718 .703 .703 .671 .687
REIT .729 .791 .703 .713 .677 .703
INFRA .727 .727 .727 .727 .727 .818
ELECTRON .726 .757 .731 .711 .706 .68
HACKERS .722 .722 .722 .722 .777 .833
INDMATER .71 .73 .72 .75 .74 .72
COMODITY .708 .75 .68 .694 .736 .75
GAMING .7 .7 .7 .633 .7 .666
CHEM .676 .661 .647 .647 .619 .563
N = 35
HOMEBLDG .666 .722 .611 .611 .611 .555
JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666
TRANSP .65 .65 .65 .65 .75 .7
AUTO .6 .625 .55 .55 .6 .625
BIOTECH .579 .618 .661 .642 .645 .587
COAL .555 .666 .666 .666 .555 .555
GREEN .516 .612 .58 .516 .548 .451
EDU .5 .5 .5 .375 .5 .5
RETAIL .446 .446 .428 .392 .428 .428
OILGAS .375 .5 .431 .481 .512 .568
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/21/2017 Peerless Buy B4 sent DJI
soaring into all-time high ground where traders do not know
where to try to bunch orders to contain the stampede. Goldman Sachs says
this is an
irrational rally. (
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-cognitive-dissonance-exists-in-the-us-stock-market-132336034.html
)
This is SO "disingenuous"! (! "Not
candid or sincere, typically by pretending
that one knows less
about something than one really does.)
All we have to do know is recall the Republican
bull market of 1925. See charts of 1924-1928.
The common themes of this year was also much lower taxes, fewer regulations,
natavism, tariffs,
no big jumps in interest rates and a Dow Jones Industrial Average running from
one all-time
high to another, just like now. Goldman Sachs knows full well. I
think, that the stage is set for an
amazing bull market, provided Trump acts more like "Silent Cal" Coolidge and
does not blow his
"horn" so much! Is that possible?
The DJI is breaking out above the top of its 2000-point wide price channel.
Classic technical
analysis says that this set up a 2000 point higher upside target. See
Edwards and Magee,
"Technical Analysis of Stock Trends".
(
https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trends-Robert-Edwards/dp/0814408648
)
2/21/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH
BRZU Crude Oil
FAS GLD
IBB JETS
JJC
JNUG KOL
NUGT OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL SLV
SOXL TECL
TMF TNA
UCO VGK
WEAT YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
The Leaders keep attracting new buyers and
no one knows where to sell in all-time high territory.
Note their very high IP21s (current Accumulation Index).
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/21/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .985 .97 .955 .955 .955 .97 DJI-13 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 UTILITY .911 .8 .822 .755 .777 .844 MORNSTAR .894 .857 .878 .907 .886 .878 PIPELINE .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 GOLD .886 .924 .943 .924 .924 .943 DOWJONES .866 .8 .8 .766 .766 .766 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 1 .857 .857 BEVERAGE .85 .75 .65 .75 .65 .65 SEMI .841 .816 .775 .766 .733 .725 NASD-100 .838 .827 .806 .817 .763 .741 NIFTY .828 .828 .828 .828 .828 .771 FINANCE .817 .827 .827 .838 .849 .806 COMPUTER .8 .84 .84 .8 .84 .76 FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SOFTWARE .796 .796 .765 .75 .75 .703 REIT .791 .703 .713 .677 .713 .786 SOLAR .789 .789 .684 .736 .736 .736 SP-100 .783 .752 .752 .773 .762 .752 SP500 .78 .746 .761 .773 .759 .746 MILITARY .777 .755 .711 .688 .711 .733 REGBANKS .777 .75 .694 .722 .75 .694 RUS-1000 .776 .748 .756 .768 .763 .752 ELECTRON .757 .731 .711 .706 .68 .685 INDEXES .752 .743 .76 .752 .764 .76 COMODITY .75 .68 .694 .736 .763 .736 BONDFUND .738 .675 .612 .567 .738 .864 INDMATER .73 .72 .75 .74 .72 .76 INFRA .727 .727 .727 .727 .818 .818 HACKERS .722 .722 .722 .777 .833 .777 HOMEBLDG .722 .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 CHINA .718 .703 .703 .671 .687 .734 INSURANC .71 .763 .763 .71 .789 .736 GAMING .7 .7 .633 .7 .666 .666 N= 35
COAL .666 .666 .666 .555 .555 .333 JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 CHEM .661 .647 .647 .619 .563 .577 TRANSP .65 .65 .65 .75 .7 .7 AUTO .625 .55 .55 .6 .625 .575 BIOTECH .618 .661 .645 .645 .587 .556 GREEN .612 .58 .516 .548 .451 .548 EDU .5 .5 .375 .5 .5 .625 OILGAS .5 .431 .481 .512 .581 .518 RETAIL .446 .428 .392 .428 .428 .357
=======================================================================================================
2/17/2017 A new Peerless Buy B4 today
reverses 1-day S9V. The Buy B4 can do this. It tells us
to
respect the market's momentum and it occurs
because
either the P-Indicator, the IP21 (Accum. Index)
or the OBVPct rises very quickly with the DJI also on
a good run. In our present case, the Buy B4
occurred because the OBVPct
jumped quickly from
below -.25 to above +.25. This is the same
type of signal that occurred
shortly after Trump's surprise
victory.
There have been 6 previous Buy B4s of the type (3) showing quick advances by the OBVPct from
negative to very positive territory. These were generally quite
profitable. Our most recent B4 has
key values similar to the previous cases, except that the V-I (NYSE Up Vol-Down
Vol) is low and
the P-I (NYSE Adv-Decl) and 65-day price pct change is high. Except for
the war-time 1944
case, all the paper losses were small, under 1.7%.
Buy B4 type 3 LA/MA
P-I IP21 V-I OBVPct
DJI 65-day Paper Pct.Gain
Pct Change Loss
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/15/1944
1.023 123 .194
114 +.304
.043
4.0% 19.5%
1/25/1954
1.023 139 .158
136 +.273
.064
0.3% 61.3%
2/4/1954
1.020 159 .136
170 +.309
.072
1.5% 60.0%
10/16/1986 1.027
85 .108 8
+.272 .034
1.7% 31.0%
11/21/2005 1.026
227 .108 108 +.329
.024
1.4% 7.0%
11/29/2017 1.025
158 .120 14
+.257 .039
none 7.8%
2/17/2017
1.024 320 .172
5 +.332
.093
(high)
(low)
(high)
Today the major ETFs opened near their lows and closed at
their highs. Such
action gives a boost to our Closing Powers and causes the day's candle-stock to
be big, blue
and bullish. All three of the leading trading vehicles I mentioned
last night did this and
ended up higher for the day. QQQ also looked exceptionally strong today.
Compare the
regular Tiger chart of QQQ with is
Candle-Stick chart.
Next Week?
We probably should consider not just the new numbers that will be added next
week in
creating these indicators but also the numbers being dropped off from 21 trading days
ago.
The numbers being dropped off as next week goes forth are mostly positive
numbers.
This will cause the V-Indicator to drop back below 0 if NYSE Up and Volume are
mediocre. Even so, this still may not cause a new Peerless Sell signal
because
the software usually waits a week before it can produce a new Sell S9V.
But that
will depend on the exact numbers.
Date That Will Be
Data That Will Be Dropped Off
Dropped Off in Creating
from 21-days Ago:
21-day ma
Adv Dec Up Vol Down Vol
-------------------------
------ ------ ------- -------------
Tues -1/20/2017
1892 1063 660
297
Wed -1/23/2017
1627 1358 297
444
Thurs - 1/24/2017
2234 793 645
215
Friday - 1/25/2017
1947 1080 609
252
Conclusion
So, as things stand now, I doubt if the DJI will pull back
more than 1.7%, or 340 points,
before advancing again. I say this because only in one case did the DJI
fall by more than
1.7% when a Buy B4 (type 3) occurred before advancing significantly. It
should also be
noted that the Buy B4 is quite capable of bringing very big gains. So, a
clear penetration by
the DJI of its price channel resistance, as I mentioned earlier, may set up a
vertical ascent
with a minimum objective of over 22000. For now I would prefer to be long
QQQ and
TECL. These have already broken above nearly all resistance-lines in
all-time high territory
and show high Accumulation with both Opening and Closing Power rising.
The Leaders Remain QQQ and TECL
2/17/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH
BRZU Crude Oil
FAS GLD
IBB JETS
JJC
JNUG KOL
NUGT OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL SLV
SOXL TECL
TMF TNA
UCO VGK
WEAT YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/17/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .97 .955 .955 .955 .97 .97
GOLD .924 .924 .943 .924 .943 .943
PIPELINE .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .714
HOSPITAL .857 .857 1 .857 .857 .857
MORNSTAR .857 .878 .907 .886 .878 .878
DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
COMPUTER .84 .84 .8 .84 .76 .72
NIFTY .828 .828 .828 .828 .771 .8
FINANCE .827 .827 .838 .849 .817 .774
NASD-100 .827 .806 .817 .763 .741 .741
SEMI .816 .775 .766 .733 .733 .733
DOWJONES .8 .8 .766 .766 .766 .766
FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
UTILITY .8 .822 .755 .777 .844 .844
SOFTWARE .796 .765 .75 .75 .703 .734
SOLAR .789 .684 .736 .736 .736 .736
INSURANC .763 .763 .71 .789 .763 .71
MILITARY .755 .711 .688 .711 .733 .688
SP-100 .752 .752 .773 .762 .752 .752
BEVERAGE .75 .65 .75 .65 .65 .7
REGBANKS .75 .694 .722 .75 .722 .555
RUS-1000 .748 .756 .768 .763 .755 .739
SP500 .748 .762 .775 .76 .746 .731
INDEXES .743 .76 .752 .764 .76 .764
ELECTRON .731 .711 .706 .68 .685 .675
INFRA .727 .727 .727 .818 .818 .727
HACKERS .722 .722 .777 .833 .777 .722
INDMATER .72 .75 .74 .72 .78 .73
CHINA .703 .703 .671 .687 .734 .718
REIT .703 .713 .677 .713 .786 .781
GAMING .7 .633 .7 .666 .666 .633
COMODITY .69 .704 .746 .774 .732 .774
BONDFUND .675 .612 .567 .738 .855 .954
N = 34
COAL .666 .666 .555 .555 .444 .444
JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666
BIOTECH .661 .645 .649 .587 .552 .548
TRANSP .65 .65 .75 .7 .7 .65
CHEM .647 .647 .619 .563 .591 .577
HOMEBLDG .611 .611 .611 .611 .722 .666
GREEN .58 .516 .548 .451 .548 .516
AUTO .55 .55 .6 .625 .575 .575
EDU .5 .375 .5 .5 .625 .5
OILGAS .431 .481 .512 .581 .543 .556
RETAIL .428 .392 .428 .428 .357 .41
=====================================================================================================
2/16/2017
Peerless gave a new Sell S9-V Signal today. The DJI closed 2.6% over the
21-day ma with our V-Indicator Negative. At the same time breadth
deteriorated
and the P-Indicator fell significantly. It is probably time to take
profits and wait to
see what happens next.
There have been
11 earlier cases (1965-2016) where
a
Sell S9V occurred in a bull market
environment. In these cases the DJI
came close
to the upper band with the V-Indicator was negative
but the P-I and IP21
(current Accum)
were positive. The average decline by the DJI at the time
of the next
Peerless Buy was
6.6%. There was one small loss, -1.2%. See the
study of Sell S9Vs here.
There is still a chance that the DJI will break out above its rising channel
resistance-line. But that
remains to be seen. Most likely, the DJI will simply pullback towards
20000, regroup and attack
the upside again. The Closing Power trendlines and 5-day moving average -
pivot points are so far
below, I would prefer simply to take profits here rather than wait for the se
trendlines and pivot-points
to be violated.
Trump's
impromptu news conference created more problems and doubts. Many
Republicans
would prefer that he sit quietly in the White House and carry through on his
domestic program. That
is not something this President is willing to do. At the same time, the US and
Russian are escalating
their war games. Let's watch to see what Professionals do with DIA and the
other ETFs.
Tiger's Closing Power is similar to the pink bars that appear in candle-stock
charts, except
that our indicator is cumulative rather than presented daily. Closes below
the openings now
would be bearish. Watch XIV, AAPL and GS. These are the leaders now.
------------------------------
TO REGULARLY UPDATED CHARTS --------------------------------
2/16/2017:
Bullish MAXCPs
Bearish MINCPs
PEERLESS
DJI Signals, Indicators DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
A/D
Line-6000 Stocks
S&P
OEX NYSE
NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY QQQ
MDY IWM
Short Term Interest
Rates DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
BBH
BRZU Crude Oil
FAS GLD
IBB JETS
JJC
JNUG KOL
NUGT OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL SLV
SOXL TECL
TMF TNA
UCO VGK
WEAT YINN
To
STOCKS
AAPL ADBE
AMZN BIDU
CAT FB
GILD GOOG
GS IBM
JPM MSFT
NVDA
REN TEVA
TMF TXN
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/16/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .955 .955 .955 .97 .97 .97
GOLD .924 .924 .943 .943 .943 .924
PIPELINE .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
MORNSTAR .878 .907 .886 .878 .878 .848
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 .714
HOSPITAL .857 1 .857 .857 .857 .857
COMPUTER .84 .8 .84 .76 .72 .72
NIFTY .828 .828 .828 .771 .8 .742
FINANCE .827 .838 .849 .817 .795 .763
UTILITY .822 .755 .777 .844 .844 .777
NASD-100 .806 .817 .763 .741 .741 .752
OILGAS .806 .817 .763 .741 .741 .752
DOWJONES .8 .766 .766 .766 .766 .7
FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
SEMI .775 .766 .733 .733 .733 .708
SOFTWARE .765 .75 .75 .703 .734 .718
INSURANC .763 .71 .789 .763 .736 .71
SP500 .762 .775 .76 .746 .738 .69
INDEXES .76 .752 .764 .76 .768 .752
RUS-1000 .756 .768 .763 .755 .747 .705
SP-100 .752 .773 .762 .752 .752 .701
INDMATER .75 .74 .72 .78 .75 .7
INFRA .727 .727 .818 .818 .818 .636
HACKERS .722 .777 .833 .777 .722 .777
REIT .713 .677 .713 .786 .786 .713
ELECTRON .711 .706 .68 .685 .68 .659
MILITARY .711 .688 .711 .733 .688 .644
CHINA .707 .676 .692 .738 .723 .676
COMODITY .704 .746 .774 .732 .774 .774
REGBANKS .694 .722 .75 .722 .583 .5
SOLAR .684 .736 .736 .736 .736 .473
N = 31
COAL .666 .555 .555 .444 .555 .555 JETS .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 BEVERAGE .65 .75 .65 .65 .7 .65 TRANSP .65 .75 .7 .7 .65 .6 CHEM .647 .619 .563 .591 .577 .521 BIOTECH .645 .649 .591 .552 .56 .544 GAMING .633 .7 .666 .666 .633 .6 BONDFUND .612 .567 .738 .855 .936 .945 HOMEBLDG .611 .611 .611 .722 .666 .666 AUTO .55 .6 .625 .575 .575 .55 GREEN .516 .548 .451 .548 .516 .451 RETAIL .392 .428 .428 .357 .41 .339 EDU .375 .5 .5 .625 .5 .625