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Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction
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Peerless
Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
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HELP
A
Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction
to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless
Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal.
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different
Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
Peerless Signals and DJI
Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965
1965-6 1966
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Documentation for
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SPY
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Previous Hotlines -
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1/19/2016 --->
Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016
--->
High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 --->
Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at
Lower Band.
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OBV NNCs on
DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
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Introduction to
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===================================================================================
===================================================================================
4/5/2017 Given the
operative Peerless Buy B4, the DJI
should not drop below the the lower band. But a test of that
level seems likely after today's disappointing action.
The good news is that ,most often, the final top in the
DJI occurs at the upper band
and only when either the P-Indicator or the Accumulation
Index is negative. So,
on this basis, too, I think we are entitled to at least
one more good advance. And I
expect the next top to coincide with Congress passing a
tax cut and a big Infrastructure
program.
But short-term I admit I am worried.
There is no arguing that after
reaching the upper band at the start of March, the DJI has
since
been in a downtrend. See the Hourly DJI chart just below.
Today the DJI again could not close above the
resistance of its
falling 21-day ma. As long as the IP21 and V-Indicator are
negative,
the 21-day ma is apt to be a barrier. In this situation,
I'm no longer so
sure the 65-dma will hold on the next test. Its annualized
rate of ascent
has slowed down to just 15%.
The next decline, if the NYSE A/D Line
uptrend breaks, will probably be to 20000-20200.
There are some other serious warning signs now. Food and
fuel prices are
falling. A number of major retail stocks show serious
weakness. Big
Banks must sense trouble ahead. The Closing Power for FAS
is
in a downtrend. Biotechs and Mid-Caps (MDY) now show
bearish
head/shoulders patterns. And two important tech stocks,
IBM and NVDA
show bearish head/shoulders patterns.
April is usually a month that allows a good rally
above the 21-day ma.
But today's rally on good Jobs' news above that
level was quickly shot down
by the hawks at the Fed.
Think about this. The DJI
lost 200 points in just the last two hours of trading,
all because their "Minutes" showed that Yellen and the
majority were ready to
raise rates further, but not because of inflation in the
form of rising commodity, labor,
producer or consumer costs and prices, but solely because
stocks are too high.
I think the market is right to be scared. This is very
dangerous thinking.
In 1929, 1937 and 1987, it was worries about excessive
stock market speculation
that caused the Fed to raise rates. Real inflation was
minimal. In 1929 and 1937,
business was even contracting. The Fed seems ignorant to
just how powerful they are.
But what can we do? They created the long bull market.
Now they want to take it all away.
Perhaps, so Trump will be blamed!?
Short-term traders, I think,
should now be using our QuickSilver strategy
and stay out of each major market ETF until its Closing
Powers and 5-day
moving average are rising or until Peerless gives a new
buy signal.
Key ETFs 5-dma 4-5 4-6 Support Resistance
IP21 ITRS
trend Pivot
Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
FAS
BBH
OIL
===================================================================================
4/4/2017 Stick with the last major Peerless signal, the Buy B4.
Fortunately, good breadth, as measured by the NYSE
A/D Line, is more important
than volume, as measured by our V-Indicator, at least until after late May or
June. QQQ and TECL are preferred to DIA and SPY for longs now.
Some selectivity is needed now. For
now the DJI is narrowly stuck.
It has good support at its 65-dma and refuses to correct by much. On
the other
hand, it also cannot get past its 21-day ma, now about 110 points higher.
The problem is not just GS and weakened big banks.
Many of the DJI's
other highest priced components are mired in what looks like a very wide
potential head/shoulders top, which may take two-three months to resolve.
See below the two most likely paths our DJI-13 (Its highest priced components)
might take.
While the DJI seems stalled out short-term, the NASDAQ continued to
outperform the DJI. See this in the chart just below.
A breakout into
all-time high ground would bring a quick challenge of the resistance
price-channel line shown below.
Note today that a handful of important NASDAQ tech stocks,
AAPL, AMZN, TSLA
and VRTX spurted multiple points to all-time highs. This reinforces my
sense
that QQQ and TECL
look like the best ETF long holdings. These breakouts
bode well for QQQ and TECL making similar breakouts.
Foreign ETFs, as a group, show the most individual components above their
65-dma of the 45 groups we currently follow. Among the Bullish MAXCPs
find GCH (China),
IIF (India),
TWN (Taiwan), At the opposite end
are Big
Banks. Hot international money has been vacating the
Dollar and that has
negatively impacted the Big Banks for the being.
4/4/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
4/4/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/4/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .955 .926 .911 .911 .941 .911
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .844 .844 .866 .8 .844 .866
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769
CHINA .741 .709 .709 .709 .677 .693
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857
DOWJONES .7 .7 .7 .733 .7 .733
GAMING .7 .733 .766 .766 .733 .733
NASD-100 .688 .655 .709 .731 .752 .709
SEMI .672 .681 .724 .732 .698 .672
HOMEBLDG .666 .666 .666 .722 .666 .666
N=11
MORNSTAR .663 .647 .714 .701 .659 .642 NIFTY .657 .628 .714 .714 .742 .714 SOFTWARE .656 .687 .671 .656 .625 .609 CHEM .633 .619 .661 .633 .619 .563 EDU .625 .75 .875 .875 .75 .75 BONDFUND .616 .66 .616 .589 .598 .5 HACKERS .611 .555 .555 .555 .5 .5 INDEXES .609 .617 .63 .634 .6 .617 ELECTRON .608 .628 .675 .67 .639 .618 COMPUTER .6 .56 .64 .6 .6 .6 SP-100 .587 .567 .587 .639 .587 .577 SP500 .575 .577 .604 .618 .591 .587 RUS-1000 .564 .558 .6 .599 .574 .565 INSURANC .558 .558 .676 .588 .588 .588 BIOTECH .549 .577 .588 .577 .596 .557 REIT .546 .526 .51 .463 .453 .421 GREEN .516 .516 .612 .58 .516 .516 SOLAR .473 .421 .473 .473 .473 .421 MILITARY .466 .511 .555 .6 .577 .6 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .555 .555 PIPELINE .444 .444 .444 .222 .222 .333 GOLD .433 .358 .339 .301 .339 .32 TRANSP .4 .4 .45 .45 .4 .4 INDMATER .397 .377 .408 .408 .377 .367 INFRA .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 FINANCE .358 .38 .423 .5 .38 .423 RETAIL .357 .375 .482 .5 .517 .357 COMODITY .352 .309 .366 .38 .394 .38
OILGAS .265 .259 .24 .215 .227 .183 AUTO .225 .225 .325 .375 .375 .325 COAL .222 .222 .111 .222 .222 .111 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .428 .285 .285 FOOD .142 .142 .285 .285 .214 .214 REGBANKS .111 .111 .138 .222 .083 .111 N=6
===================================================================================
4/3/2017 Stick with the last major Peerless signal, the Buy B4.
The short-term DJI H/S top and the Tiger S5 must be considered played out.
Good DJI support is expected at its rising 21-dma. The rising A/D Line
helps a lot and
there is no indication that the Fed is about to press for higher
interest rates this month,
but both the Opening and Closing Power are
falling for DIA. Another test of the
65-dma may be necessary.
DIA could not get past the resistance posed by its falling 21-day ma,
so it may have to again test its rising 65-dma. The head/shoulders
patterns in BBH, IWM
and MDY do pose a problem for the bulls.
The advance is narrowing, despite the bullish message that the
A/D Line is sending us.
Breakdowns by BBH, IWM and MDY below the necklines in their head/shoulders
patterns
would make it very difficult for DJI to do more than hold up the market and the
maintain appearance that is all is well with the Trump rally. While we
wait for the
drama of the Federal Budget to play out, I think QQQ
and TECL should be held.
They are stronger than the DJI and they have a history (2000 and 2008) of
topping
out weeks and even months after the DJI does.
But, at this time, short-term traders should respect our QuickSilver rules.
A turning down of the 5-day ma (a close below the pivot-point) or a break in the
Closing Power uptrend should be treated as Sell signals even for QQQ and TECL.
SOXL
fell 1.36 today. It is always very volatile, but this weakness does show
traders
are becoming unsettled by something. SOXL has recently become a leader of
the
short-term market.
In the table below, we see that only QQQ and TECL show rising Closing Powers
and 5-day ma now. It would not take much weakness tomorrow to turn TECL's
5-dma down. The short-term looks vulnerable when we see that SPY, IWM,
MDY and SOXL have their Closing Power trends rated as questionable.
KEY VALUES FOR KEY ETFS
ETF 4/3
5-day ma Closing Power
Resistance Support IP21 ITRS
Pivot-Point Chart Rating
for
4/4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
206.25 206.75 Bearish
208
204 -.018 ----------
SPY
233.33
233.32
?
236
232 .021
-.004
QQQ
132.3
131.64
Bullish
132.8
131 .140 +.032
IWM
136.03 135.79
?
138
132
.06 -.03
MDY 310.73
309.63
?
316
300
.043 -.022
TECL 66.75
66.52
Bullish
67.42
65.9 .084 +.182
SOXL
76.98 1.36
77.80
?
80
75 .174 +.213
FAS
44.15 44.12
Bearish
45.80
41 -.057
+.032
If you are looking for short sales hedges, consider the biotechs among our
Bearish MINCP stocks:
VRX,
TEVA and GILD. If they cannot rise in a
bull
market, what will they do when a bear market comes?
4/3/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
4/3/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/3/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .926 .911 .911 .941 .911 .897
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .844 .866 .8 .844 .866 .866
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769
EDU .75 .875 .875 .75 .75 .75
GAMING .733 .766 .766 .733 .733 .733
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .857
CHINA .709 .709 .709 .677 .693 .709
DOWJONES .7 .7 .733 .7 .733 .633
SOFTWARE .687 .671 .656 .625 .625 .625
SEMI .681 .724 .732 .698 .689 .698
N=11
BONDFUND .666 .621 .594 .603 .522 .504 HOMEBLDG .666 .666 .722 .666 .666 .666 NASD-100 .655 .709 .731 .752 .72 .72 MORNSTAR .647 .714 .701 .659 .642 .584 ELECTRON .628 .675 .675 .639 .628 .644 NIFTY .628 .714 .714 .742 .714 .714 INDEXES .621 .63 .634 .6 .617 .613 CHEM .619 .661 .633 .619 .577 .549 BIOTECH .577 .588 .573 .596 .561 .577 SP500 .577 .604 .618 .591 .593 .539 SP-100 .567 .587 .639 .587 .597 .536 COMPUTER .56 .64 .6 .6 .6 .56 INSURANC .558 .676 .588 .588 .588 .529 RUS-1000 .558 .6 .599 .574 .57 .516 HACKERS .555 .555 .555 .5 .5 .555 REIT .526 .51 .463 .453 .421 .385 GREEN .516 .612 .58 .516 .516 .516 MILITARY .511 .555 .6 .577 .6 .511 JETS .444 .444 .444 .555 .555 .444 PIPELINE .444 .444 .222 .222 .333 .333 SOLAR .421 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 TRANSP .4 .45 .45 .4 .4 .2 FINANCE .38 .423 .5 .38 .434 .315 INDMATER .377 .408 .408 .377 .377 .336 RETAIL .375 .482 .5 .517 .357 .357
INFRA .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 GOLD .358 .32 .32 .339 .32 .452 COMODITY .309 .366 .38 .394 .394 .38 OILGAS .259 .24 .215 .227 .183 .164 AUTO .225 .325 .375 .375 .325 .3 COAL .222 .111 .222 .222 .111 .111 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .428 .285 .285 0 FOOD .142 .285 .285 .214 .214 .142 REGBANKS .111 .138 .222 .083 .111 .055 N=9
===================================================================================
3/31/2017 Stick with the uptrend. Seasonality is bullish.
The Closing
Powers are rising. The last Peerless signal was a Buy B4. The
DJI was sufficiently strong to not even quite touch the rising the
65-dma on its last decline, such was the level of interest among
institutional accumulators on weakness. But money keeps going
disproportionately into stocks that will benefit from the new
Trump budget.
Look for a bullish breakout from QQQ soon.
In cases like this where there is a big shift in government priorities,
traders are usually better off playing the strongest stocks and ETFs.
For me that means investing now in QQQ,
TECL, SOXL and the
NASDAQ (below). For stocks, we should look
to the Bullish MAXCP
stocks for ideas and the best performing stocks now, as shown in my
new "Nifty-44" group. Further below is the "Nifty-44" chart.
I suggest not being distracted by the news about Trump. What
counts here is that we will see a Republican budget. There
will be a tax cut and there will be a big shift towards military
spending. Trump is proposing a 10% increase in it. This would
amount to a colossal $54 billion increase. There is no big war, so
a lot more of this money will reach military contractors.
The biggest percentage increase in military spending since 1960
occurred between 1965 and 1967, a +43% increase. Most of this
money went to support the war in Viet Nam. But even so, the military
budget had a huge impact in 1967 on the semi-conductors, computer and
electronics stocks. All this spending had much less effect on the DJI
stocks.
The next year, 1968, was a year of wild public speculation in low
priced stocks. I would judge we are now in a market environment
like 1967. The
Russell-2000 is not yet where money should
go. It is still well below resistance and shows a potentially
bearish head/shoulders pattern.
------------------------------------------ To Charts --------------------------------------------
3/31/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/31/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/31/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .911 .911 .941 .911 .897 .897
EDU .875 .875 .75 .75 .75 .625
UTILITY .866 .8 .844 .866 .888 .8
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
DJI-13 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769 .769
GAMING .766 .766 .733 .733 .733 .666
SEMI .724 .732 .698 .689 .698 .681
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .857 .857 .714
MORNSTAR .714 .701 .659 .642 .592 .592
NIFTY .714 .714 .742 .714 .714 .714
CHINA .709 .709 .677 .693 .709 .693
NASD-100 .709 .731 .752 .72 .72 .731
DOWJONES .7 .733 .7 .733 .666 .7
INSURANC .676 .588 .588 .588 .529 .529
ELECTRON .675 .675 .644 .628 .649 .623
SOFTWARE .671 .656 .625 .625 .625 .609
N=16
HOMEBLDG .666 .722 .666 .666 .666 .722
CHEM .661 .633 .619 .577 .549 .535
COMPUTER .64 .6 .6 .6 .56 .56
INDEXES .63 .634 .6 .617 .609 .609
BONDFUND .621 .594 .603 .522 .504 .36
GREEN .612 .58 .516 .516 .516 .548
SP500 .602 .617 .589 .592 .541 .56
RUS-1000 .6 .599 .574 .57 .518 .534
BIOTECH .588 .573 .592 .561 .573 .541
SP-100 .587 .639 .587 .597 .546 .536
HACKERS .555 .555 .5 .5 .555 .5
MILITARY .555 .6 .577 .6 .533 .577
REIT .51 .463 .453 .421 .385 .432
RETAIL .482 .5 .517 .357 .357 .321
SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473
TRANSP .45 .45 .4 .4 .2 .2
JETS .444 .444 .555 .555 .444 .444
PIPELINE .444 .222 .222 .333 .333 .222
FINANCE .423 .5 .38 .434 .315 .304
INDMATER .408 .408 .377 .377 .346 .346
COMODITY .366 .38 .394 .394 .38 .394
INFRA .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 .272
AUTO .325 .375 .375 .325 .325 .35
GOLD .32 .301 .358 .32 .49 .301
FOOD .285 .285 .214 .214 .142 .214
OILGAS .24 .215 .227 .183 .164 .17
BIGBANKS .142 .428 .285 .285 0 0
REGBANKS .138 .222 .083 .111 .055 .055
COAL .111 .222 .222 .111 .111 .111
N= 7
==================================================================
3/30/2017
The rebound from the 65-dma for the DJI and SP-500
may hesitate
because of resistance at their broken 21-day moving averages
and because the rally in Bank Stocks has reached their most likely point of
resistance,
the level of their right shoulders in their potential head/shoulders patterns.
This should be temporary
as the Closing Powers and 5-day ma of SPY, QQQ
and TECL are rising as is the NYSE A/D Line. The active
Peerless Buy signal
should win out and we should see a DJI rally back up to
21200, at the least,
in the next few weeks. But watch MDY, FAS, IWM and BBH. We would not
want these to end up completing head/shoulders patterns. It is important
that their advances continue.
Next 3 Charts: DJI and SPY at likely short-term
resistance of 21-dma.
QQQ is close to its last barrier before making another bullish breakout.
------------------------------------------ To
Charts --------------------------------------------
3/30/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/30/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
Watch to see if the ETFs shown below (MDY, FAS,
IWM and BBH) can get past the potential right shoulder
apex-resistance in their head/shoulders patterns.
We need to see these ETFs destroy their potential head/shoulders
patterns by such advances. Breakouts above their right shoulders
would go a long way in allowing the rally to be broader than one
based too exclusively on tech stocks in the QQQ and NASDAQ.
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/30/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .911 .941 .911 .897 .897 .867
EDU .875 .75 .75 .75 .625 .625
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .8 .844 .866 .888 .8 .777
DJI-13 .769 .692 .769 .769 .769 .846
GAMING .766 .733 .733 .733 .666 .666
DOWJONES .733 .7 .733 .666 .7 .733
SEMI .732 .698 .689 .698 .681 .672
NASD-100 .731 .752 .72 .72 .731 .731
HOMEBLDG .722 .666 .666 .666 .722 .722
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 .857 .714 .428
NIFTY .714 .742 .714 .714 .714 .714
CHINA .709 .677 .693 .709 .693 .709
MORNSTAR .701 .659 .642 .592 .596 .613
ELECTRON .675 .644 .634 .649 .628 .618
N=15
SOFTWARE .656 .625 .625 .625 .609 .609 SP-100 .639 .587 .597 .546 .536 .556 INDEXES .634 .6 .617 .609 .613 .617 CHEM .633 .619 .577 .549 .535 .549 SP500 .618 .591 .593 .543 .558 .581 COMPUTER .6 .6 .6 .56 .56 .6 MILITARY .6 .577 .6 .533 .555 .577 RUS-1000 .599 .574 .57 .518 .534 .548 BONDFUND .594 .603 .522 .504 .378 .324 INSURANC .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 .558 GREEN .58 .516 .516 .516 .548 .548 BIOTECH .573 .592 .557 .573 .537 .494 HACKERS .555 .5 .5 .555 .5 .5 FINANCE .5 .38 .434 .315 .304 .304 RETAIL .5 .517 .357 .357 .339 .321 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 REIT .463 .453 .421 .385 .427 .453 TRANSP .45 .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 JETS .444 .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 BIGBANKS .428 .285 .285 0 0 0 INDMATER .408 .377 .377 .346 .346 .387 COMODITY .38 .394 .394 .38 .394 .408 AUTO .375 .375 .325 .325 .35 .35 INFRA .363 .363 .363 .363 .272 .454
GOLD .301 .339 .339 .49 .339 .396 FOOD .285 .214 .214 .142 .214 .285 COAL .222 .222 .111 .111 .111 .111 PIPELINE .222 .222 .333 .333 .222 .222 REGBANKS .222 .083 .111 .055 .055 .055 OILGAS .215 .227 .183 .164 .17 .17 N=6
===================================================================================
3/29/2017
Stick with the Buy B4 as the active Peerless signal.
Tests of the
65-dma like we have just seen are generally much more likely to bring a rally
close
to the upper band at the least, than a breakdown below the lower band so long as
the DJI (or in our case the Bank stocks that comprise the FAS) does not form a
head/shoulders top.
See the
new research and charts of
the DJI when it was
similarly situated in the past.
Seasonality is bullish and the NYSE A/D Line is in an uptrend, as are the
Closing
Powers of
QQQ and
TECL. The highest priced tech stocks (ADBE,
AMZN,
FB and GOOG) are getting much of the
newly committed trading capital on the long side.
Oil/Gas (Notice the Stochastic Buy system's success with
OIL this last year.)
and Retail stocks did well, too, today. But
it will be important for FAS
and the
Big Banks to stay above their key support level.
It would be very helpful to the bull's case
if FAS can keep rallying
and escape what looks like a right shoulder formation.
A number for foreign ETFs have popped up in our bullish ranking. That
usually
means a good advance is very likely for that group. Hot international money seems
to
be flowing overseas away from the Dollar and the New York Banks.
Notice
the Dollar's (UUP below) head/shoulders pattern below.
Trump's scary behavior is
probably less to blame for this than the "threat" of a very unbalanced new
Federal
budget or a complete budgetary impasse in three weeks.
Watch the development of our DJI-13 Index (below).
It could very well be
forming a right shoulder in what could either break down badly or
keep moving higher from the apex of a right shoulder apex that
matches the one on the top of the left shoulder. The latter course
would allow the market to make a nice run until May.
New Study of Tests of Rising 65-dma in Likely Bull Market
TESTS OF RISING 65-DMA IN BULL MARKETS
WHERE A/D LINE FAILS TO CONFIRM THE DECLINE,
3 MONTHS OF NON-VIOLATION OF 65-dma AND
BELOW 21-dma BY MORE THAN 1.2% (as was true for 3/27/2017)
See all charts here...
18 cases:
6 instances where bull market continues.
5 rallies but only to upper band.
2 Minor declines and rallies to UB
5 Big declines follow, 10% or more from high.
But what happened where both P and IP21 were
negative?
LA/MA P-I
IP21
8/24/1959 H/S 10% decline
.985
-78 -.031
2/10/1959 Bull Market continues
.986
-22 -.05
11/28/1940 H/S Additional big decline
.983
-2
-.032
4/22/1936 Additional 12%
decline .98
-97 -.194
12/17/1935 Bull Market continues
.98
-51 -.214
8/18/1933 Rally to Upper Band
.981
-57 -.155
Answer: 3 big
declines, 1 rally to upper band
and 2 bull market continues.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All Cases
LA/MA P
IP21
3/27/2017
.986
-120 -.093
Nov 2010 Bull Market continues
.983
-36
+.146
9/25/2003 Bull Market continues
.984
+300 +.023
8/19/1997 Minor decline
.981 +94
+.03
8/3/1995 Bull Market continues
.983
+37
-.072
2/28/1994 H/S 11% decline
.98
-90
+.08
4/15/1987 rally to UB
.979
-188 +.08
May 1986 rally to UB
.979 +7
+.029
7/8/1983 rally to UB
.986
-4
+.064
5/20/1971 H/S Big decline unfolds
.986 -142
+.035
8/24/1959 H/S 10% decline
.985
-78 -.031
2/10/1959 Bull Market continues
.986
-22 -.05
11/18/1950 rally to UB
.983
15
-.011
12/21/1945 Bull Market continues
.986
24 +.083
3/20/1945 H/S minor decline
.983
127 +.069
11/28/1940 H/S Additional big decline
.983
-2 -.032
4/22/1936 Additional 12%
decline .98
-97 -.194
12/17/1935 Bull Market continues
.98
-51 -.214
8/18/1933 rally to UB
.981
-57 -.155
------------------------------------------ To Charts --------------------------------------------
3/29/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/29/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/29/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .941 .911 .897 .897 .867 .882
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .844 .866 .888 .8 .777 .822
NASD-100 .752 .72 .72 .731 .741 .752
EDU .75 .75 .75 .625 .625 .625
NIFTY .742 .714 .714 .714 .742 .771
GAMING .733 .733 .733 .666 .666 .6
HOSPITAL .714 .857 .857 .714 .428 .428
DOWJONES .7 .733 .666 .7 .733 .7
SEMI .698 .689 .698 .681 .672 .689
DJI-13 .692 .769 .769 .769 .846 .846
CHINA .677 .693 .709 .693 .709 .693
N= 12
HOMEBLDG .666 .666 .666 .722 .722 .722 MORNSTAR .659 .642 .592 .596 .613 .596 ELECTRON .644 .634 .654 .628 .618 .613 SOFTWARE .625 .625 .625 .609 .625 .625 CHEM .619 .577 .549 .535 .549 .535 BONDFUND .603 .522 .504 .378 .333 .342 COMPUTER .6 .6 .56 .56 .6 .64 INDEXES .6 .617 .609 .613 .621 .592 BIOTECH .592 .557 .569 .537 .498 .49 SP500 .591 .593 .543 .558 .581 .572 INSURANC .588 .588 .529 .529 .558 .529 SP-100 .587 .597 .546 .536 .567 .567 MILITARY .577 .6 .533 .555 .577 .555 RUS-1000 .574 .57 .518 .534 .553 .538 JETS .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 .333 RETAIL .517 .357 .357 .339 .321 .321 GREEN .516 .516 .516 .548 .548 .516 HACKERS .5 .5 .555 .5 .5 .5 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 REIT .453 .421 .385 .427 .458 .385 TRANSP .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 COMODITY .394 .394 .38 .394 .408 .394 FINANCE .38 .434 .315 .304 .315 .26 INDMATER .377 .377 .346 .346 .387 .357 AUTO .375 .325 .325 .35 .35 .325 INFRA .363 .363 .363 .272 .454 .363 GOLD .339 .32 .509 .339 .433 .49
BIGBANKS .285 .285 0 0 0 0 OILGAS .227 .183 .164 .17 .164 .151 COAL .222 .111 .111 .111 .111 .111 PIPELINE .222 .333 .333 .222 .222 .222 FOOD .214 .214 .142 .214 .285 .285 REGBANKS .083 .111 .055 .055 .055 .055 N=5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/28/17
Restore the Buy
B4 as the current Peerless signal. Consider it renewed
or reinforced. Look for a DJI run to 21200 over the next 4 weeks.
This is usually
a bullish period. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 68% of the time in the
month following
March 28th. The average gain on the DJI in this period was an impressive
+2%.
The DJI's completed Head/Shoulders pattern (minor Tiger S5) has probably
played itself out. The DJI (and SP-500) have come within a hair of tagging
the
rising 65-dma. The DJI's recent low was not confirmed by either the
P-Indicator
or the A/D Line. In the 1980's, this would have been a judged Peerless Buy
B8. From
1993 until 2006, it would have been an automatic Buy B11. In reversing
today, the DJI
has now gone more than 5 1/2 months without closing at the 65-dma. (All of
these conditions
combined will be tested tomorrow night and shown here.)
The Hourly DJI's DISI-OBV line is in an uptrend now. The Hourly
OBV shows that
the selling pressure on the recent decline was quite limited. And in fact,
any DJI
decline now back down to the 65-dma will very likely produce a new Buy there.
So, support looks very good not far below that market for a
few weeks.
We will still need to see the Hourly DJI power itself above the resistance lines
shown below.
The SPY-500 chart looks bullish. See how its Closing Power has
hooked
back up following its recent bulge of Accumulation. This is a reliable
short-term buy
based on Tiger's Closing Power rules.
And just when we needed it, a new leader has emerged among the Dow stocks.
AAPL's
breakout has gotten it a position among our most bullish MAXCP stocks. Buy it.
Its rise boosted
QQQ and TECL today. More of an upside follow-through tomorrow would turn
their charts'
head and shoulders patterns to dust. This can be anticipated, I think,
again because of their
Accumulation Index bulges and now bullishly rising Closing Powers. Buy QQQ
and TECL.
And even FAS and the Bank stocks
bounced back today as the Dollar (UUP)
got a short-term red 5-day-Stochastic Buy.
So, all in all, trust the renewed Buy B4. The DJI
should be able to get back
to its highs and reach 21200 just in time for us to see Congress reach some kind
of "accommodation" on next year's budget at the end of April. In the meantime,
tech ETFs and SPY should do even better.
------------------------------------------ To Charts
--------------------------------------------
3/28/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/28/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/28/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .911 .897 .897 .867 .882 .882
UTILITY .866 .888 .8 .777 .822 .8
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .714 .428 .428 .428
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .9
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .846 .846 .769
EDU .75 .75 .625 .625 .625 .5
DOWJONES .733 .666 .7 .733 .7 .666
GAMING .733 .733 .666 .666 .6 .6
NASD-100 .72 .72 .731 .741 .752 .72
NIFTY .714 .714 .714 .742 .771 .657
CHINA .693 .709 .693 .709 .693 .693
SEMI .689 .698 .681 .672 .689 .646
N=12
HOMEBLDG .666 .666 .722 .722 .722 .722 MORNSTAR .642 .592 .596 .613 .596 .584 ELECTRON .634 .654 .634 .618 .608 .587 SOFTWARE .625 .625 .609 .625 .625 .609 INDEXES .617 .609 .613 .621 .592 .613 COMPUTER .6 .56 .56 .6 .64 .52 MILITARY .6 .533 .555 .577 .555 .555 SP-100 .597 .546 .536 .567 .567 .567 SP500 .593 .543 .558 .581 .572 .564 INSURANC .588 .529 .529 .558 .529 .529 CHEM .577 .549 .535 .549 .535 .521 RUS-1000 .57 .518 .534 .553 .54 .529 BIOTECH .557 .569 .533 .498 .498 .498 JETS .555 .444 .444 .444 .333 .333 BONDFUND .522 .504 .378 .333 .36 .315 GREEN .516 .516 .548 .548 .516 .483 HACKERS .5 .555 .5 .5 .5 .444 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 FINANCE .434 .315 .304 .315 .26 .26 REIT .421 .385 .427 .458 .39 .395 TRANSP .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 COMODITY .394 .38 .394 .408 .394 .394 INDMATER .377 .346 .346 .387 .367 .377 INFRA .363 .363 .272 .454 .363 .363 RETAIL .357 .357 .339 .321 .321 .285
PIPELINE .333 .333 .222 .222 .222 .222 AUTO .325 .325 .35 .35 .325 .325 GOLD .32 .49 .358 .433 .509 .49 BIGBANKS .285 0 0 0 0 0 FOOD .214 .142 .214 .285 .285 .214 OILGAS .183 .164 .17 .164 .151 .17 COAL .111 .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 REGBANKS .111 .055 .055 .055 .055 .055 N=8
===================================================================================
3/27/17 A
Strong Close Tuesday Would Give Us
Closing Power Buys very near the 65-dma
for DIA and SPY. But watch The Dollar now.
If UUP completes its bearish head/shoulders
pattern, Bank Stocks will weaken more and the market
will then worry about a much tighter monetary policy
coming from the FED. (Our adage: "What the FED
giveth, the Fed can take away.")
It appears that the Trump Administration will now target tax relief
as his new highest priority piece of legislation. Since this will mainly
directly benefit the wealthiest Americans, there will be a lot of political
commotion.
But here the Republicans have the votes and the unity to pass it. Wall
Street will love this legislation. The market has always, to my knowledge,
gone up when taxes have been cut for corporations and the wealthy. As this
new focus gets more coverage, expect the DJI to turn around and rally
whether or not it has not reached either its lower 3.5% price band or its rising
65-dma. See below how close the DJI has come to tagging the 65-dma
and how the NYSE A/D Line today failed to confirm today's decline. I don't
think
we can ignore these technical developments.
Without a new Peerless Buy, I usually would advise waiting for the key ETFs
Closing Powers to break their downtrend and then for the 5-day ma to turn up.
But consider SPY. The good news here is that SPY's recent bulge of high
Accumulation
goes a long way towards making us bullish. By TigerSoft's Closing Power
rules,
I must recommend buying it when its Closing Power does hook up See in its
chart below how close SPY came to tagging its 65-dma. Also see how bullish
SPY became this past year when its Closing Power did break its downtrend.
The bad news is that if the Dollar breaks down (See further below.), then the
tax-cut rally for SPY may not be very powerful. Even for
TECL, QQQ and
the NASDAQ, the rally may have problems.
Each of these now shows bearish
looking head/shoulders patterns. They may look small. But after so
much of
an advance over 7+ years, they show risk.
KEY VALUES FOR KEY ETFS
ETF 3/27
5-day ma Closing Power 65-dma IP21 ITRS
Pivot-Point Chart Rating
Support/
for
3/28
Resistance
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
205.23 -.52 206.35 Bearish
203 -.026 ----------
SPY
233.62 -.24
233.73
Bearish
231 .014
-.001
QQQ
130.84+.21
129.81
?
127 .126 +.033
IWM
134.74 +25 133.97
?
137 -.011 -.037
TECL 65.27 +.0
64.59
Bearish
59.1 .109 +.181
SOXL
77.03 +.40
73.29
Bearish
67.3 .166 +.268
FAS
42.75 -.70 43.17 Bearish
44.44 -.056 -.016
Each of these ETFs now show a falling
5-dma, but it will turn
up for QQQ and IWM if their close stomorrow remains the same
as today's.
It is important that FAS now stabilize and not go much lower.
All the
DJI's recent advances have begun just as the closes and Closing Power
of FAS break their downtrends. See the chart just below. But if the
Dollar represented by the UUP ETF shown further below should
break the neckline in its head/shoulders pattern, I fear FAS will not
be able to hold above its support. This event will probably push the FED
to tighten monetary policy to try to hold up the Dollar as Trump's fiscal
policies (tax cuts and bigger Federal deficits) work to drive it down.
How much of a rally we get from the DJI will also depend on how
well the
13 highest priced DJI stocks fare in it. The Index of them will
need to rally quite a bit to destroy the nascent head/shoulders
pattern our DJI-13 Index is creating.
DJI-13 is the heart of the DJI-30
because of the way the Dow Jones Average
weighs each component solely by price.
3/27/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT
3/27/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/27/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .897 .897 .867 .882 .882 .911 UTILITY .888 .8 .777 .822 .8 .8 HOSPITAL .857 .714 .428 .428 .428 .571 BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .846 .769 .846 EDU .75 .625 .625 .625 .5 .75 GAMING .733 .666 .666 .6 .6 .733 NASD-100 .72 .731 .741 .752 .731 .795 NIFTY .714 .714 .742 .771 .685 .8 CHINA .709 .693 .709 .693 .693 .741 SEMI .698 .681 .672 .689 .646 .732 N=11
DOWJONES .666 .7 .733 .7 .666 .8 HOMEBLDG .666 .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 ELECTRON .654 .634 .623 .608 .587 .664 SOFTWARE .625 .609 .625 .625 .609 .687 INDEXES .609 .613 .621 .592 .617 .676 MORNSTAR .592 .596 .613 .596 .588 .718 BIOTECH .569 .533 .494 .498 .494 .604 COMPUTER .56 .56 .6 .64 .52 .68 HACKERS .555 .5 .5 .5 .444 .555 CHEM .549 .535 .549 .535 .521 .647 SP-100 .546 .536 .567 .567 .577 .68 SP500 .543 .558 .581 .572 .566 .654 MILITARY .533 .555 .577 .555 .555 .666 INSURANC .529 .529 .558 .529 .558 .647 RUS-1000 .518 .534 .553 .54 .533 .629 GREEN .516 .548 .548 .516 .483 .516 BONDFUND .504 .378 .333 .36 .315 .279 GOLD .5 .346 .442 .519 .519 .423 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .578 JETS .444 .444 .444 .333 .333 .444 COMODITY .385 .4 .414 .4 .414 .457 REIT .385 .427 .458 .39 .406 .437 INFRA .363 .272 .454 .363 .363 .636 RETAIL .357 .339 .321 .321 .303 .41 INDMATER .346 .346 .387 .367 .377 .53
PIPELINE .333 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 AUTO .325 .35 .35 .325 .325 .5 FINANCE .315 .304 .315 .26 .26 .521 TRANSP .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .35 OILGAS .164 .17 .164 .151 .17 .177 FOOD .142 .214 .285 .285 .214 .285 COAL .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 .222 REGBANKS .055 .055 .055 .055 .055 .222 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 0 0 .714 N=9
===================================================================================
3/24/17
I
have previously shown the DJI almost always falls back to its
lower band or its 65-day ma even after a Buy B4 signal when the DJI completes
a head/shoulders pattern and the NYSE A/D Line breaks its uptrend. It is
the
Dollar's weakness which is driving down the Big Banks.
The DJI seems determined to test its rising 65-dma
as investors
worry that the Trump program is not guaranteed success in Congress
just because Republicans are in a majority. Without the replacement of
"ObamaCare" by "TrumpCare" the Federal Government, it can be argued
by fiscal conservatives, will lack the money to cut taxes, build Trump's Wall
and begin a massive new Infrastructure spending program. All of these
things
were built into the market's excellent rise since Election Day.
Now it remains to be seen how Trump will not proceed. If he makes a big tax cut
his next priority, he should be more successful. It should be a much
easier "sell" to
all Republicans. If cutting taxes does become the President's next
priority,
I would expect Wall Street's current swoon to come to an end fairly soon,
possibly
on Tuesday, but most likely as the DJI reaches the support of its rising 65-dma
and
its 3.5% lower band.
KEY VALUES FOR KEY ETFS
ETF 3/23
5-day ma Closing Power IP21 ITRS
Pivot-Point Chart Rating
for
3/27
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
205.75 -.56 208.81 Bearish -.021 ----------
SPY
233.86 -.17
236.77
Bearish
.02 -.002
QQQ
130.63+.27
131.81
Bearish .139 +.03
IWM
134.49 -.29 137.86 Bearish
-.015 -.046
TECL 65.27 +.08 67.37
Bearish .13
+.178
SOXL
76.63 +1.58
78.77
Bearish .166 +.228
FAS
43.45 -.06 46.31 Bearish -.063
-.012
For now, I continue suggesting that we wait a
while longer before buying back
any of the general market ETFs. Hold some the the bearish MINCP
stocks
short. I would also sell short UUP,
shown below. Each of the major market ETFs
shown above features a "Bearish" falling Closing Power and each cannot easily
turn up their 5-day moving averages.
shoulder
head
shoulder
The
Falling Dollar Lies behind the DJIA Decline.
Why are Bank Stocks getting hit so hard?
BREXIT? A little...
I think the main reason for the sell-off in the Big Banks over the
last over the last 17 trading days (since March 1) is tied in with the
falling Dollar. Hot international money has started to flee the US.
Trump's
brash and erratic behavior is not helpful here and if international trade and
foreign
US investments are significantly cut back on, that will hurt New York's
position as the center of World Finance. And when the FED
starts to raise rates to defend the Dollar despite weak economic growth,
that could do big damage to the stock market.
Biggest ETF Decliners since March 1st
(over last 17 trading days)
----------------------------------------
DGAZ (Natl Gas) - 29%
UCO (Oil)
- 22%
KRU (Regional Banks) - 22%
FAS (Big Banks) - 15%
RETL (Retailers) -
13%
Biggest Morningside Fund Gainers since March 1st
(over last 17 trading days)
Semi-Conductors +11%
Prvt. Education
+10%
I would expect the FED soon to raise interest rates more to defend the Dollar
to help Banks out. This could spell trouble. Given the lack of real
inflation except
in health care and rents, there is a growing danger that higher rates plus
increased FED
selling of debt will stop and reverse the long bull market. "What the Fed
giveth,
the Fed can take away". Higher rates on credit cards will also make things
much
worse for retailers.
3/24/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
XIV
YINN
To
STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL
AMAT
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others
REN,
CHOC
NIB,
JJC,
WEAT
3/24/2017: Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/24/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .897 .867 .882 .882 .911 .897
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 .85
UTILITY .8 .777 .822 .8 .8 .822
DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .769 .846 .923
NASD-100 .731 .741 .752 .731 .795 .806
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .722 .722 .777
HOSPITAL .714 .428 .428 .428 .571 .714
NIFTY .714 .742 .771 .685 .8 .742
DOWJONES .7 .733 .7 .666 .8 .8
CHINA .693 .709 .693 .693 .741 .725
SEMI .681 .672 .689 .646 .724 .724
N=11
GAMING .666 .666 .6 .6 .733 .666
ELECTRON .634 .623 .613 .587 .659 .68
INDEXES .613 .621 .592 .617 .672 .672
SOFTWARE .609 .625 .625 .609 .687 .718
MORNSTAR .596 .613 .596 .588 .718 .752
EDU .571 .571 .571 .428 .714 .714
COMPUTER .56 .6 .64 .52 .68 .68
SP500 .558 .581 .572 .566 .654 .677
MILITARY .555 .577 .555 .555 .666 .666
GREEN .548 .548 .516 .483 .516 .58
SP-100 .536 .567 .567 .577 .68 .701
CHEM .535 .549 .535 .521 .647 .676
RUS-1000 .534 .553 .54 .533 .631 .66
BIOTECH .533 .494 .494 .494 .592 .612
INSURANC .529 .558 .529 .558 .647 .764
HACKERS .5 .5 .5 .444 .555 .555
SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .578 .578
JETS .444 .444 .333 .333 .444 .333
REIT .427 .458 .39 .406 .447 .479
COMODITY .405 .42 .405 .42 .449 .434
BONDFUND .378 .333 .36 .315 .279 .18
AUTO .35 .35 .325 .325 .5 .525
INDMATER .346 .387 .367 .377 .53 .489
GOLD .339 .433 .528 .509 .433 .415
RETAIL .339 .321 .321 .303 .41 .464
FINANCE .304 .315 .26 .26 .51 .695
INFRA .272 .454 .363 .363 .636 .545
PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222
FOOD .2 .266 .266 .2 .2 .066
TRANSP .2 .2 .2 .2 .35 .25
OILGAS .17 .164 .151 .17 .177 .177
COAL .111 .111 .111 .222 .222 .222
REGBANKS .055 .055 .055 .055 .222 .361
BIGBANKS 0 0 0 0 .714 .857
N=9
==================================================================================
3/23/17
The Buy B4 seems to have "failed" in that the NYSE
A/D Line has broken its uptrend and the DJI has formed and
completed a
a 20-day head/shoulders pattern. Most often that brings a
DJI decline
back to its falling 65-dma, now at 20311. Today did
see an impressive
902 more up than down on the NYSE. In addition, the minor
A/D Line
downtrend could be broken with another good breadth day.
Unfortunately,
that would likely still leave all the major market ETFs
with falling 5-day
moving averages and falling closing Powers.
Seasonality becomes bullish next week. So, a break
in the A/D Line's
minor downtrend could well bring another run to 21000. But
what would we
buy? Right now all key general market ETFs show falling
Closing Powers
and 5-day moving averages. In fact, even a good 1% rise
tomorrow might
still not turn up the 5-day ma. The 21-day is also still
falling for the DJI.
Waiting until next week to buy seems
what is called for now.
3/23/17:
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA
XIV
YINN
To
STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL
AMAT
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others
REN,
CHOC
NIB,
JJC,
WEAT
3/23/2017: Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/23/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .867 .882 .882 .911 .897 .897
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .9 .85 .85 .85
DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .846 .923 .923
UTILITY .777 .822 .8 .8 .822 .822
NIFTY .742 .771 .685 .8 .771 .742
NASD-100 .741 .752 .731 .795 .817 .806
DOWJONES .733 .7 .666 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .722 .722 .777 .777
CHINA .709 .693 .693 .741 .725 .758
SEMI .672 .689 .646 .724 .732 .715
N=10
GAMING .666 .6 .6 .733 .7 .633 EDU .625 .625 .5 .75 .75 .625 SOFTWARE .625 .625 .609 .687 .718 .734 ELECTRON .623 .613 .592 .659 .68 .639 INDEXES .621 .592 .617 .672 .676 .684 MORNSTAR .613 .596 .588 .718 .747 .739 COMPUTER .6 .64 .52 .68 .68 .64 SP500 .581 .572 .566 .654 .679 .683 MILITARY .577 .555 .555 .666 .666 .666 SP-100 .567 .567 .577 .68 .701 .742 INSURANC .558 .529 .558 .647 .764 .676 RUS-1000 .553 .54 .533 .631 .662 .654 CHEM .549 .535 .521 .647 .676 .605 GREEN .548 .516 .483 .516 .58 .516 HACKERS .5 .5 .444 .555 .611 .611 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .494 .494 .49 .592 .608 .624 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .578 .578 .631 REIT .458 .39 .406 .447 .484 .406 INFRA .454 .363 .363 .636 .545 .454 JETS .444 .333 .333 .444 .333 .555 GOLD .433 .509 .528 .433 .415 .433 HOSPITAL .428 .428 .428 .571 .714 .714 COMODITY .408 .394 .408 .436 .422 .422 INDMATER .387 .367 .377 .53 .5 .5 AUTO .35 .325 .325 .5 .525 .575
BONDFUND .333 .36 .315 .279 .189 .171 RETAIL .321 .321 .303 .41 .464 .41 FINANCE .315 .26 .26 .51 .684 .728 FOOD .266 .266 .2 .2 .066 .066 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 TRANSP .2 .2 .2 .35 .3 .4 OILGAS .164 .151 .17 .177 .177 .17 COAL .111 .111 .222 .222 .222 .222 REGBANKS .055 .055 .055 .222 .361 .416 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 .714 .857 1 N=10
===================================================================================
3/22/2017
I said last
night that I thought that the DJI's completed head
and shoulders coupled with the break in the
NYSE A/D Line
and the weakness in the Big Banks should
bring a DJI decline
back to the lower band and the rising
65-dma, despite the
earlier Buy B4. That is indeed the usual
pattern after what
I will call here, are "failed" Buy B4s.
Note quickly formed H/S Pattern in lead-up to
9/11/2001.
The Current Decline
seems based on more than
the frequent Post
Options' Expiration Bearishness.
The Wall Street
Journal thinks it is Trump's
Credibility Gap.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-presidents-credibility-1490138920
QQQ and TECL
should have been sold today.
No other ETF Positions
have been suggested recently.
The growing
weakness in Bank stocks was too much for
the market today.
Decliners were almost 4x advancers
and NYSE Down Volume
was 6x Up-Stocks' Volume.
The DJI has completed a
small 20-day head/shoulders
pattern. This sets up
an objective of 21100 where the
lower 3.5% band and the
rising 65-dma should act as support.
The long positions in
QQQ and TECL closed below Monday's
pivot points, thus
causing their 5-day ma to turn down today.
The complete rout of
the up-opening caused their Closing
Powers to drop below
their now falling 21-dma. So, traders
should have sold these
positions.
I have been noting the
unusual growing weakness in the Bank stocks
and FAS. Yesterday, I
said this seemed to have to do with the Declining
Dollar and Trump's
Credibility Gap more than the prospects
of rising interest
rates. Suggesting this might be correct, Bonds
rose in their usual
defensive way. Bloomberg experts blame the
decline on the likely
failure of TrumpCare to pass the Senate.
Without a new health
care bill, the entire Trump Budget with
its juicy tax cuts has
become uncertain.
Hourly DJI
FAS
QQQ
TECL
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/21/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT 3/21/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/21/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVERAGE .9 .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 ETFS .882 .911 .897 .897 .897 .867 UTILITY .8 .8 .822 .822 .822 .777 DJI-13 .769 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 NASD-100 .731 .795 .817 .806 .795 .774 HOMEBLDG .722 .722 .777 .777 .777 .722 CHINA .693 .741 .725 .758 .677 .709 NIFTY .685 .8 .771 .742 .742 .714 N=8
DOWJONES .666 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SEMI .646 .724 .732 .715 .681 .655 INDEXES .617 .672 .676 .684 .693 .634 SOFTWARE .609 .687 .718 .734 .687 .671 GAMING .6 .733 .7 .633 .6 .633 ELECTRON .592 .664 .685 .639 .597 .577 MORNSTAR .588 .718 .747 .739 .739 .642 SP-100 .577 .68 .701 .742 .752 .69 SP500 .564 .652 .677 .684 .698 .642 INSURANC .558 .647 .764 .676 .705 .647 MILITARY .555 .666 .666 .644 .666 .577 RUS-1000 .533 .631 .662 .655 .662 .607 CHEM .521 .647 .676 .605 .647 .507 COMPUTER .52 .68 .68 .64 .64 .64 GOLD .509 .433 .433 .433 .49 .207 EDU .5 .75 .75 .625 .75 .625 BIOTECH .49 .588 .604 .62 .632 .584 GREEN .483 .516 .58 .516 .483 .451 SOLAR .473 .578 .578 .631 .578 .631 HACKERS .444 .555 .611 .611 .555 .5 HOSPITAL .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 COMODITY .408 .436 .422 .422 .408 .225 REIT .406 .447 .484 .411 .395 .239 INDMATER .377 .53 .5 .5 .52 .397 INFRA .363 .636 .545 .454 .454 .363
JETS .333 .444 .333 .555 .555 .444
AUTO .325 .5 .525 .575 .55 .475
BONDFUND .315 .279 .189 .189 .198 .081
RETAIL .303 .41 .464 .41 .392 .392
FINANCE .26 .51 .684 .728 .576 .586
COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222
PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222
FOOD .2 .2 .066 .066 .066 .066
TRANSP .2 .35 .3 .4 .55 .3
OILGAS .17 .177 .177 .177 .177 .126
REGBANKS .055 .222 .361 .416 .305 .361
BIGBANKS 0 .714 .857 1 .857 .857
-- BIG DROP ------
N=12
===================================================================================
===================================================================================
3/20/17
Seasonality and the operative Buy B4 should
still take the DJI to new
highs. But I would prefer to stay long
QQQ and TECL. They have
rising
Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages.
In addition each's ITRS (relative
strength versus the DJI) remains quite
positive, as do their IP21s (Accumulation).
AAPL (below) again looks like it is
breaking out and starting another leg up.
AAPL's slow advance may start to accelerate
with its breakout today.
Such a move would give a big boost to QQQ
and TECL while helping support
DIA.
Time Could Be Running Out for The Rally
Given the pounding the President
is getting in the media, it surprises
many that the DJI is holding up as well as
it has. This is undoubtedly
true in the short run, say for another
three or four weeks. But eventually,
Trump's growing credibility gap in
Washington will weaken his chances
of getting all of his economic program of
lower taxes and a big shift away
from social programs to military spending
passed by Congress, even
with its Republican majority. Right now,
Trump's economic program seems
safe. But this could become a real problem
for the market and the economy.
For now the market's very low
volatility lulls many into a confident mood.
But all the Trumpian tumult is distracting
us from some important changes
in the bull market. For one thing, the
NYSE A/D Line is weakening. The
P-Indicator is now negative. A quick 2%
rally now on poor breadth could
give us a Sell S9. This is a
result of the prospects of rising interest rates.
What "the Fed giveth, it can quickly take
away."
The DJI now
sits on its 21-day ma. Its P-I, V-I and OBVPct
are negative and its current AI
(IP21) is only +.024. It has
neckline support at 20700. A break
below that will then
likely require a test of its lower
band and rising 65-dma
at 20100.
A Bigger Problem.
There is another problem.
Bank stocks, big and regional, are the
natural
leaders in a bull market. More than any
other group, their moves correlate with
the DJI's moves. (That is why Peerless
signals work best with them since
1986.) But now they
show long Closing Power trend-breaks and the FAS
even sports a head/shoulders pattern.
Why? Well the
Dollar is weakening, for one thing. But so is Oil. So, we are
seeing something new here. It is not
inflation that is weakening the Dollar.
Is it foreigners
getting a distaste for Trump? Is it China?
Janet Yellen says she may retire
early from her post as head of the FED.
A Donald Trump appointment to be Fed
Chairman would likely mean a very
new perspective there guiding the nation's
monetary policies. The days of
"Hellicopter Ben" and her disciple Yellen
would come to an end. With a
new Fed Chairman,
there might be a wholesale dumping of hundreds of billions
of FED held debt instruments on the
market. This would absorb lots of investment
capital. It would enormously tighten
credit and mean a big jump in interest rates.
This IS almost too scary a scenario to
contemplate. Is that what the Big Banks
like
GS and
JPM are starting
to fear is a growing possibility? One hopes that
Wall Street would be able to use its clout
to head that off. Nothing like this
imminent. So, these stocks, FAS, GS and
JPM for example, should
have lots of buyers if they fall another 5%
or even 10%. But why are the
Closing Powers of
big banks pointing downward now? Why are only
22% of Regional
Banks still above the support of their 65-day ma?
FAS - 3x Big
Banks' ETF
Tiger Index of Regional Banks
3/20/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT 3/20/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/20/17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .911 .897 .897 .897 .882 .897 BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .9 .85 .8 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 NIFTY .8 .771 .742 .742 .714 .714 UTILITY .8 .822 .822 .822 .777 .8 NASD-100 .795 .817 .806 .795 .774 .763 EDU .75 .75 .625 .75 .625 .625 CHINA .741 .725 .758 .677 .709 .709 GAMING .733 .7 .633 .6 .633 .566 SEMI .724 .732 .715 .681 .655 .672 HOMEBLDG .722 .777 .777 .777 .722 .722 MORNSTAR .718 .747 .739 .739 .642 .68 BIGBANKS .714 .857 1 .857 .857 1 SOFTWARE .687 .718 .734 .687 .671 .703 COMPUTER .68 .68 .64 .64 .64 .6 SP-100 .68 .701 .742 .752 .69 .742 INDEXES .672 .676 .684 .693 .638 .647 N=18
MILITARY .666 .666 .644 .666 .577 .6 ELECTRON .664 .685 .644 .597 .577 .597 SP500 .652 .677 .684 .698 .642 .658 CHEM .647 .676 .605 .647 .507 .507 INSURANC .647 .764 .676 .705 .647 .647 INFRA .636 .545 .454 .454 .363 .363 RUS-1000 .631 .662 .655 .662 .607 .63 BIOTECH .588 .604 .616 .632 .581 .628 SOLAR .578 .578 .631 .578 .631 .631 HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 HACKERS .555 .611 .611 .555 .5 .611 INDMATER .53 .5 .5 .52 .397 .387 GREEN .516 .58 .516 .483 .451 .451 FINANCE .51 .684 .728 .576 .597 .619 AUTO .5 .525 .575 .55 .475 .475 REIT .447 .484 .411 .395 .239 .255 JETS .444 .333 .555 .555 .444 .444 COMODITY .436 .422 .422 .408 .239 .281 GOLD .433 .415 .452 .49 .226 .339 RETAIL .41 .464 .41 .392 .392 .392 TRANSP .35 .3 .4 .55 .3 .5
BONDFUND .279 .189 .189 .198 .081 .099 COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 REGBANKS .222 .361 .416 .305 .361 .361 FOOD .2 .066 .066 .066 .066 .066 OILGAS .177 .177 .177 .177 .132 .164 N=6
=====================================================================================
3/17/2017 The
last major Peerless signal remains the Buy
B4
shown in the DJI chart.
QQQ and TECL are
the strongest
ETFs along with SOXL. Stay long them.
(See
the past B4s-based on OBV surges:
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/NewBuy-B4s/INDEX.htm
)
Seasonality suggests several more days
of slight weakness
for the DJI. But after that, the
historical odds since 1965
favor a rally probably to the upper
band.
Trading Days from Now DJI Pct Gain
Probability of a Rally
--------------------------------- ------------------
----------------------------
3 -.2% 46%
5 (a week)
+.1% 56%
10 (two weeks)
+.2% 54%
21 (a
month) +1.5% 74%
Stay long QQQ (NASDAQ-100) and TECL.
We want to trade
the strongest uptrends now. Of all the
groups of stocks I follow
the most powerful uptrends remain the
Nasdaq-100 and Semi-Conductors.
Goldman Sachs (GS) should be watched
to see if it's further
weakness will bring on a brief DJI
pullback. It is by far
the highest priced DJI-30 stock and so has
the most influence
on what the DJI does.
3/17/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA XIV
YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
CHOC,
JJC,
WEAT
3/17/17: Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/17/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .897 .897 .882 .897 .882
BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 .857 1 .857
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .9 .85 .8 .8
UTILITY .822 .822 .822 .777 .8 .777
NASD-100 .817 .806 .795 .774 .763 .763
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .777 .777 .777 .722 .722 .722
NIFTY .771 .742 .742 .714 .714 .742
INSURANC .764 .676 .705 .647 .647 .676
EDU .75 .625 .75 .625 .625 .625
MORNSTAR .747 .739 .739 .642 .68 .655
SEMI .732 .715 .681 .655 .663 .637
CHINA .725 .758 .677 .709 .709 .661
SOFTWARE .718 .734 .687 .671 .703 .703
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .714
SP-100 .701 .742 .752 .69 .731 .721
GAMING .7 .633 .6 .633 .566 .633
ELECTRON .685 .644 .603 .577 .592 .567
FINANCE .684 .728 .576 .597 .619 .608
COMPUTER .68 .64 .64 .64 .6 .64
SP500 .679 .685 .7 .643 .658 .66
CHEM .676 .605 .647 .507 .521 .478
INDEXES .676 .684 .693 .638 .638 .638
N=24
MILITARY .666 .644 .666 .577 .6 .6 RUS-1000 .66 .653 .66 .605 .628 .627 HACKERS .611 .611 .555 .5 .611 .611 BIOTECH .604 .616 .628 .581 .628 .608 GREEN .58 .516 .483 .451 .419 .419 SOLAR .578 .631 .578 .631 .578 .526 INFRA .545 .454 .454 .363 .363 .363 AUTO .525 .575 .55 .475 .5 .35 INDMATER .5 .5 .52 .397 .408 .346 REIT .484 .411 .395 .239 .255 .255 RETAIL .464 .41 .392 .392 .392 .392 COMODITY .422 .422 .408 .239 .295 .267 GOLD .415 .433 .509 .226 .339 .207 REGBANKS .361 .416 .305 .361 .361 .361
JETS .333 .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 TRANSP .3 .4 .55 .3 .5 .5 COAL .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 BONDFUND .189 .189 .198 .081 .117 .108 OILGAS .177 .177 .177 .132 .183 .17 FOOD .066 .066 .066 .066 .066 .133 N=7
==========================================================================
3/16/17 Peerless
remains on Buy B4. I would prefer to hold
QQQ and
TECL
rather than DIA or SPY. This is because the
ITRS readings which compare
how much a stock or ETF has risen in the last 50 trading
days compared to the
DJI remain very positive. All four of these ETFs now have
rising 5-day ma but only QQQ,
TECL and SOXL are classified as having rising Closing
Powers and show
very positive relative strength versus DIA. Note the
falling Closing Power
for FAS (3x Banks). Avoid these for now.
KEY
VALUES FOR KEY ETFS
ETF 3/16
5-day ma Closing Power IP21 ITRS
Pivot-Point Chart Rating
for
3/17
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
209.44 -.14 203.15 ? .285 ----------
SPY 238.48 -.47 237.69
Bullish .318 +.003
QQQ 132.01 -.09 131.39
Bullish .392 +.049
IWM
137.91 +.18 135.96 ? .111 -.038
TECL 67.08 +.42 65.65
Bullish .453 +.25
SOXL
76.63 -.30 74.05 Bullish .372 +.284
FAS
48.23 +.35 47.58 Bearish
.276 +.094
Seasonality and Bullish Strength We Are Seeing
Suggest There Will Be No Significant
Top
until after April 15th.
I remain impressed with the very high current Accumulation
(IP21) values for
all these major market ETFs, except IWM. When we look at
the Peerless
DJIA chart, we also see a relatively high IP21. This is
important because
most of the DJI's big advances at the beginning of the year,
here defined
as those that do not show a drop at any time in the first
quarter to the lower
3.5% band, go much higher. They usually do not reach their
first peak
before a decline then starts to the lower band until after
April 15th. And most
do not reach a peak with their Accumulation Index (IP21)
still above +.10.
The DJI's IP21 is now .093.
From this I conclude that the strength we have
seen so far this year will most likely NOT bring a top for
another month, at least.
BIG BULL
MARKETS in THE FIRST QUARTER
WHERE THERE IS NO DJI DECLINE TO THE
LOWER BAND: 1945-2017
Year First Peak Leading
IP21 at
to Decline To
3.5% First Peak
Lower Band
---------------------------------------------------------
1950 June
12 +.176
1954 August
2 +.207
1961 May
22 +.005
1964 no top
1965 May
14 +.097
1971
April 28 +.095
1972
April 18 +.054
1976
April 22 -.027
1986
March 27 +.064
1987
April 6 +.187
1993 no top
1995 no top
1998
April 21 +.045
2006 May
9 +.079
2012
April 2 +.076
2013 May
22 +.136
This study shows
16 previous strong first quarter DJI advances like
we are now seeing. Only one brought a March top
this late in the quarter.
2 tops occurred in the first half of April. 4 took
place between April 18th
and April 28th. 4 were seen in May. The 5 others
did not see a significant
top until June or much later.
3/16/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA XIV
YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
CHOC,
JJC,
WEAT
3/16/17:
Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/16/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 .857 .857 1 .857 .857
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
ETFS .897 .897 .882 .897 .897 .852
BEVERAGE .85 .9 .85 .8 .8 .85
UTILITY .822 .822 .777 .8 .777 .733
NASD-100 .806 .795 .774 .763 .763 .731
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HOMEBLDG .777 .777 .722 .722 .722 .666
CHINA .758 .677 .709 .709 .661 .645
NIFTY .742 .742 .714 .714 .742 .742
SP-100 .742 .752 .69 .731 .721 .721
MORNSTAR .739 .739 .642 .68 .655 .63
SOFTWARE .734 .687 .671 .703 .703 .671
FINANCE .728 .576 .597 .619 .608 .619
SEMI .715 .681 .655 .663 .637 .646
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 .714
SP500 .685 .7 .643 .658 .66 .65
INDEXES .684 .693 .638 .638 .642 .659
INSURANC .676 .705 .647 .647 .676 .617
N= 19
RUS-1000 .655 .662 .607 .63 .629 .61 ELECTRON .644 .603 .582 .592 .567 .577 MILITARY .644 .666 .577 .6 .6 .577 COMPUTER .64 .64 .64 .6 .64 .68 GAMING .633 .6 .633 .566 .633 .533 SOLAR .631 .578 .631 .578 .526 .526 EDU .625 .75 .625 .625 .625 .625 BIOTECH .616 .628 .577 .628 .608 .608 HACKERS .611 .555 .5 .611 .611 .611 CHEM .605 .647 .507 .521 .478 .45 AUTO .575 .55 .475 .5 .375 .325 JETS .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 GREEN .516 .483 .451 .419 .419 .419 INDMATER .5 .52 .397 .408 .346 .326 INFRA .454 .454 .363 .363 .363 .272 GOLD .433 .49 .245 .339 .207 .207 COMODITY .422 .408 .239 .295 .267 .253 REGBANKS .416 .305 .361 .361 .361 .388 REIT .411 .395 .239 .255 .255 .291 RETAIL .41 .392 .392 .392 .392 .357 TRANSP .4 .55 .3 .5 .5 .35
COAL .222 .222 .222 .333 .333 .222 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 BONDFUND .189 .198 .081 .117 .108 .09 OILGAS .177 .177 .132 .183 .17 .17 FOOD .066 .066 .066 .066 .133 .2 N=5
========================================================================================
3/15/17 Peerless
remains on Buy B4. Buy more QQQ and
TECL.
The key indicators and the DJI chart now looks a lot more
like 1925
than 1929! The upper
band at 21500 seems like the next DJI's target.
Cover most shorts. Speculative "animal spirits" should
now start coming
out in full force. (See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_spirits )
De-regulating
Wall Street, in my opinion, virtually guarantees we will
see a wild speculative orgy
before too long. Look at all the Bullish blue
Accumulation on strength in TECL,
the 3x leveraged ETF for high techs. This looks like it
will go substantially higher.
TECL is a substitute for buying
AAPL or AMAT, which would be reasonable
choices here, too.
In most respects it was a very fine day
for the stock market technically.
Instead of breaking down below its neckline support and
21-day ma support,
the DJI advanced +113 and there were a whopping 6x more
NYSE advancers
than decliners. The potential head and shoulders patterns
of the SP-500 and
NASDAQ were destroyed by
rallies above these indexes' price patterns' right
shoulder-apex. With Peerless on a Buy, with the market
running near or at all
time highs and our Accumulation Indexes so high, I think
we have to expect
another DJI run to the upper band soon. Assuming that
breadth continues strong,
expect the P-Indicator to turn positive, in which case, we
will not get a Sell S9
near the 3.5% band near 21500.
With the long awaited boost to interest
rates now out of the way, traders bought
back bonds, utilities and Gold stocks. Only Big Banks and
some finance stocks
hesitated. Under-performance by the Financials is a
positive factor for now. Too
exclusive investor buying in financials would likely limit
the upside potential.
A broader bull market will last longer. Relative weakness
in Big Banks will only
become a problem if stocks like JPM show more red
Distribution, Closing Power S7-s
and head/shoulders patterns. If that happens, they might
well be leading the DJI in
calling a top.
See my study of JPM
further below.
Our favorite longs, QQQ and TECL roared ahead,
presumably attracting
high-performance funds. These still look like they will
go much higher. Buy more.
SOXL is even stronger. It is not Professionals that are
pushing it
higher. Rather, I think it is those who understand that
Trump's huge boost
to US military spending will focus on upgrading high tech
capabilities
and these are heavily dependent on new and faster
microcircuits. Not for
nothing, I have called your attention to the continuing
strength in TXN and
AMAT. If the market were
about to begin a bear market, we would expect
these highly leveraged stocks to show head/shoulders
patterns and red
Distribution. Just the opposite is true now.
Leading biotechs, like CLVS + 4.98 and
BLUE +5.85, made multi-point leaps
upward today. Speculative vigor is growing and the Fed
will apparently be unable
to stop it for now.
Cover most short sales in the weaker oil/gas stocks,
biotechs and retailers.
There is ,more upside potential than downside potential.
3/15/17:
PEERLESS
DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA
DJI-13
Hourly DJIA
S&P
OEX
NYSE
NASDAQ
COMPQX with Closing Power
DIA
SPY
QQQ
MDY
IWM
Short
Term Interest Rates
DJI-Utilities
DJI-Transp
A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS
GLD
BBH
IBB
JETS
JNUG
KOL
NUGT
OIH
OIL
RSX
RETL
SLV
SOXL
TECL
TMF
TNA XIV
YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT
AMZN
BIDU
CAT
FB
GOOG
GS
IBM
MSFT
NVDA
JPM
Others MASI
REN,
CHOC,
JJC,
WEAT
3/15/17:
Bullish
MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
3/15/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923
BEVERAGE .9 .85 .8 .8 .85 .85
ETFS .897 .882 .897 .897 .852 .852
BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 .857 .857 .857
UTILITY .822 .777 .8 .777 .733 .755
DOWJONES .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
NASD-100 .795 .774 .763 .763 .731 .731
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .722 .722 .666 .777
SP-100 .752 .69 .731 .721 .721 .742
EDU .75 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625
NIFTY .742 .714 .714 .742 .742 .742
MORNSTAR .739 .642 .68 .655 .638 .668
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 .714 .714 .714
INSURANC .705 .647 .647 .676 .617 .588
SP500 .7 .643 .658 .66 .652 .672
INDEXES .693 .638 .638 .642 .659 .672
SOFTWARE .687 .671 .703 .703 .671 .671
SEMI .681 .655 .663 .637 .646 .681
CHINA .677 .709 .709 .661 .645 .709
N=19
MILITARY .666 .577 .6 .6 .6 .577 RUS-1000 .662 .607 .63 .629 .612 .641 CHEM .647 .507 .521 .478 .464 .478 COMPUTER .64 .64 .6 .64 .68 .64 BIOTECH .628 .577 .624 .608 .604 .608 ELECTRON .603 .582 .597 .567 .577 .592 GAMING .6 .633 .566 .633 .533 .6 SOLAR .578 .631 .578 .526 .526 .578 FINANCE .569 .591 .612 .602 .634 .612 HACKERS .555 .5 .611 .611 .611 .611 JETS .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 AUTO .55 .475 .5 .375 .325 .425 TRANSP .55 .3 .5 .5 .35 .4 INDMATER .52 .397 .408 .346 .336 .377 GOLD .49 .226 .358 .207 .207 .245 GREEN .483 .451 .419 .419 .419 .419 INFRA .454 .363 .363 .363 .272 .363 COMODITY .408 .239 .295 .267 .253 .394 REIT .395 .239 .255 .255 .286 .354 RETAIL .392 .392 .392 .392 .357 .392
REGBANKS .305 .361 .361 .361 .388 .388 COAL .222 .222 .333 .333 .222 .222 PIPELINE .222 .222 .222 .222 .333 .666 BONDFUND .198 .081 .117 .108 .099 .315 OILGAS .177 .132 .183 .17 .177 .196 FOOD .071 .071 .071 .142 .214 .357 N=6
Stocks
To Watch That Lead DJI: JPM
(Previously, I suggested TXN).
DOES A JPM TOP PREDICT DJIA(DIA) TOP?
2007-2011
See charts for this
study.
yes - 5 cases
no - 1 case (2014)
2007 JPM's top came a
month before DIA's
2008 JPM's top came two
weeks before DIA's.
2009 JMP matched DJI'a rise, but was much
stronger at its beginning.
2010 JPM matched DIA's quick March-April top.
Lagged at year end.
2011 JPM's May top came a
month before DIA's.
2012 JPM's March top came
two weeks before DIA's.
2013 JPM's prices matched DIA's.
2014 JPM's March top
did NOT bring a DIA decline.
2015 JPM's Aug. top was
easier to spot in JPM than DIA because of clear CP bearish divergence.
2016 JPM's mid-year strength led DJI upwards.
=====================================================================================
3/14/17 Peerless remains on
Buy B4 but we do see potential head/shoulders patterns
developing in DJI, SP-500 and NASDAQ. Should that
worry us?
I just did a study of all the judged
head/shoulders patterns since 1965.
See all
the DJI charts
with these H/S patterns, completed and failed. There are more than
40 of them. Most of the patterns brought declines
down to the DJI's lower band, at least.
A few did fail. The ones that failed to unfold
bearishly were usually ones with
IP21s (current Accum. Index) above +.07. The
DJI's current IP21 now is +.128.
The H/S pattern it is now tracing out will
probably fail, too.
Note that there were three cases where the IP21 was
above +.10. In two cases
the H/S failed (11/1/1982 and 3/10/2016) and in one
instance the DJI fell sharply
and began a bear market (8/3/1990). In this last
case, Peerless was already on a
major Sell. In the first two cases, it was not.
The judged H/S patterns that proved correctly
bearish nearly all showed IP21
levels well below +.07, had fallen below their
price's 65-dma when the pattern's neckline
was broken below and also were already on a
Peerless Sell. None of those three conditions
is true presently with the DJIA.
This strongly suggests that the DJI will not decline
as far down as the lower band, if its decline does
break its support at 20700.
Judged Potential Head and
Shoulders Patterns in DJI , SP-500 and NASDAQ?
Note that each now shows a very high
IP21-Accumulation and is well above
the expected support at the 65-dma.
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/14/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-IPA DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN To STOCKS' CHARTS ------------------------------------------------ AAPL AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others MASI REN, JJC, WEAT 3/14/17: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
==========================================================================