Would Be Sell S4s

February and March S4s are infrequent.  Only 5 cases.
Just 2 of the 5 brought good gains of 7%.

If there is no Sell S4, the breaking of the AI 21-day ma
is more likely not to bring a good decline.  In the period since
1975, there were 3 cases of good breaks in AI ma without a
Sell S4 but there were 18 instances where sell would not have
been a good idea.


No. Date Signal DJI Pct Gain Paper Loss
 

No.           Date          Signal        DJI           Pct Gain     Paper Loss
la/ma         annroc        PI            PI-ch         Adj.PI        IP21
VI            OBVPct        65d PctCh.
================================================================================= 
 16           19850208      S4             1289.97       .033          .007
 1.0195        .627          370          -33.8          732.5         .072
21           -.245          .037 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 18           19890209      S4             2323.04       .031         None
 1.0151        .525          133.1        -39.3          228.9         .088 
22            .067          .093 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 20           19940203      S4             3967.66       .074         None
 1.0185        .517          146.2        -22.3          231.1         .151 
9             .32           .073 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 21           19970207      S4             6855.8        .036         .033   
 1.0122        .405          72            1.1           87.8          .103  
-3             .105          .127 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 26           20050308      S4             10912.47      .076          None
 1.0115        .217          148.3        -126.8         200.2         .023 
-54            .051          .031 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------     



Good ones:
1987


1994

2005



BAD ONES