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1/19/2016 --->
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=================================================================================
4-19-2017 Today's DJI decline "looked" as false
as Tuesday's, but
anticipating a DIA-CP downtrend is still risky. It still may
be best to
wait for DIA's Closing Power to break
its downtrend or for Peerless to give a BUY signal.
The market remains "confused" and "confusing".
The QQQ rose today and there were only 208 more
down than up. Just like yesterday when the DJIA was dropped
artificially by the big decline in high priced GS, today it
was felled by high-high priced IBM's plunge at the opening.
There's no getting around it, "Blue Chip"stock holders are
definitely becoming scared and the continued failure of the
DJI to sustain a rally is making matters worse. Crude Oil dropped
sharply today. That leaves us wondering how much longer
the OEX can hold up. It is disproportionately made up of big
Oil stocks. See below how very weak the OBV Line is for the OEX.
The stock markets in 2000 and 2008 showed us that a rising
QQQ (Nasdaq-100) can only hold up for a month, or so,
when the DJI keeps falling. The NYSE A/D Line can
hold longer, perhaps 6 months (as in 1977). But
eventually, if the DJI keeps falling, even the still rising
defensive stocks
and bond funds get hit. I think that we
are not yet at that point.
The DJI still should have support at
its lower band and
also at 20000, the point of breakout.
Watch The Closing Powers.
Trying to anticipate their turning up did not work today.
IBM spoiled that. What big DJI stock may get clipped tomorrow?
Traders are not going to be in a rush to buy now, especially
with Mike Pence threatening North Korea, saying the "time for
failed dialogue is over". The truth, of course, is that
isolation,
very little diplomacy and decades of waiting have created a
more much powerful and more dug-in enemy, one that could
probably survive a non-nuclear pre-emptive attack and kill thousands and
thousands of people in South Korea. There are no good options.
The markets have every right to be alarmed about what lies
ahead.
The Closing Power for DIA and
SPY keep falling
and there has not been a pair of back-to-back advances
by the DJI since March 10th. That's 26 trading days
we have gone without the DJI scoring two daily gains
in a row. Why are big holders of blue chips selling so quickly
on rallies? And why do GS and
IBM show completed
head/shoulders patterns? Might we see more completed
H/S patterns in the DJIA-30 stocks. I count 8 with completed
H/S. I have found that when we reach 11 or 12, we see
an intermediate-term correction of 10%-13.5% from the
DJI's recent peak.
Head/shoulders are both warnings of unexpected trouble
and self-fulfilling. Accordingly, we will have to become quite
worried if we see the emerging H/S Patterns in the
Transports,
MID-Caps (MDY),
IWM-Russell-2000,
BBH-IBB (Biotechs)
and FAS (Big Banks) get completed.
So far, that has not happened.
Key H/S Shoulders Patterns
4/19 neckline
AAPL 140.68
140
AXP 75.55
77 completed.
CAT 93.47
90
CVX 104.23
115 completed
DD 77.77
79 completed
GS 214.09
218 completed
HD 147.22
145
IBM 161.69
171 completed
JNJ 121.37
124 completed
JPM 84.46
85 completed Support at 83.
MMM 189.83
188.5
MRK 62.64
64 completed
NEW RESEARCH
26 Trading Days without Back-to-Back DJI Advances.
What has happened in the past when the DJI would not rally
for two straight days going back 26 trading days, like now?
There have been 9 earlier cases. The first five warned
of deeper bear markets just ahead. Three of the next four would
have called bottoms. The internals of the 1995 case are
probably closest to our own case. Here the market was about
to take off to the upside. But in this case the DJI had held
above its 65-dma and showed much higher V-I and IP21
readings. Our present case also shows a positive P-I (breadth)
level. That should mean we will see Peerless Buy signals
if the DJI should tag the lower 2.5%-3.5% band. More weakness
than that coupled with the steady selling of blue chips would
have to be bearishly construed.
26-days
without
% below recent P-I
V-I IP21 Outcome
two
straight up-Days peak/long bear mkt
----------------------- ----------------------
----- ------ ------
-------------------------------
4/30/1931
.883
Long bear
market -167
-828 -.157
151.2 to 121.7 in 5 weeks.
9/29/1931
.821
Long bear market -223
-919 -.177
99.8 to 86.5 in 4 days.
12/17/1931
.833
Long bear market -242
-936 -.285
73.8 to 80.7
next day, then 71.2 in 10
12/5/1939 .982
6.6% below peak -87
-147 -.078
146.5 to 152.8 in a month,
then
DOWN
6/23/1969
.954
9% below
May peak -437 -41
-.249
870.86 to 801.96 in 5 weeks.
11/15/1978
.962
13.5% below Aug peak -454
-11
-.153
Bottom. 785.6 to 820.51 in 13
days.
3/24/1980
.936
13.5% below Feb peak -493 -14
-.182 765.44 to
759.13,
Bottom, then UP.
2/14/1984 .96
10.5% below Jan peak -369 -22
-.148
1163.84 to 1134.21 in 6days. Later
Down.
8/31/1995 .995
3% below July peak
+39
-9 -.028
Bottom.
4610 to to 5200 in 14 weeks.
Still over rising 65-dma
4/19/2017 .99
3.2% below Feb peak +178
-104 -.086
?
Just fell below rising 65-dma.
4/19/17
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/19 /17 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
For first time in a long while, more groups have less than 1/2 their stocks
below their 65-dma than above the 65-dma. 22 vs 24.
4/19/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND .928 .919 .919 .928 .919 .857
NIFTY .896 .896 .931 .827 .862 .896
EDU .875 .875 .875 .75 .75 .875
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .8
ETFS .794 .852 .882 .823 .882 .897
REIT .781 .776 .734 .682 .729 .734
HOMEBLDG .777 .833 .777 .777 .722 .833
GAMING .766 .766 .733 .666 .7 .766
UTILITY .755 .822 .844 .755 .866 .822
SOFTWARE .718 .687 .64 .578 .687 .687
DJI-13 .692 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769
N=11
NASD-100 .634 .623 .602 .537 .602 .634 SEMI .629 .62 .603 .543 .577 .637 GREEN .612 .58 .612 .516 .612 .709 INSURANC .588 .617 .647 .558 .647 .647 MORNSTAR .575 .579 .609 .466 .596 .689 DOWJONES .566 .566 .566 .533 .633 .633 ELECTRON .561 .52 .53 .474 .505 .582 HACKERS .555 .555 .5 .444 .555 .611 INDEXES .55 .554 .638 .495 .634 .701 RUS-1000 .52 .522 .52 .454 .517 .566 SP500 .508 .52 .531 .466 .529 .562 N=11 =========================================================================================== CHEM .492 .507 .492 .45 .577 .605 MILITARY .488 .466 .488 .377 .466 .622 BIOTECH .486 .454 .525 .482 .426 .446 CHINA .483 .483 .58 .596 .645 .629 SOLAR .473 .473 .526 .421 .473 .526 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 PIPELINE .444 .333 .333 .333 .444 .555 COMPUTER .44 .44 .44 .4 .44 .56 SP-100 .432 .443 .453 .391 .494 .515 HOSPITAL .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 GOLD .377 .584 .603 .622 .622 .584 RETAIL .357 .339 .339 .285 .375 .428 COMODITY .352 .422 .507 .464 .464 .45 N=14 INDMATER .326 .316 .316 .295 .377 .489 TRANSP .3 .2 .25 .2 .2 .45 INFRA .272 .272 .272 .181 .454 .545 FINANCE .271 .282 .271 .228 .239 .282 AUTO .225 .175 .175 .15 .2 .25 OILGAS .183 .215 .227 .221 .278 .335 COAL .111 .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 REGBANKS .083 .055 .083 .055 .083 .138 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 FOOD 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=10
================================================================================
4-18-2017
Today's decline looked quite false.
The DJI's Hourly DISI trend is
definitely pointing up. There were only 120 more up than down on
the NYSE. More than 75 of today's DJI decline owed to just
one stock, Goldman Sachs. The DJI is
sitting very invitingly on
on its still rising 65-dma. With the
Closing Powers for DIA and
SPY only needing one good day's rally, I
think our traders will want to
be buyers tomorrow at the opening, if they are not up too much.
All Trump's bluster about North Korea last week may have been just
that, "bluster". It turns out that the "armada" was actually moving away
from Korea, not
towards it, as President Trump said. Well! This should
mean peace for a
while longer. That's good. It clearly rattled the North
Koreans.
Maybe, they will re-think their nuclear and ICBM testing?
Let's hope it was all a deliberate ploy.
Otherwise, it raises new questions
about Trump's competence and ability
to communicate clearly and effectively |
with his Admirals and Generals. That would be
scary. Could we be blundered into war?
I guess no one remembers how
World War I was started by the blunders of
foolish Kings and Generals.
(This is very 'googleable'. Example -
http://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/102009287 )
All this has left Professionals confused. But that should not last much
longer.
Our
Closing Powers, which measure Professionals' behavior, have only
turned up for QQQ despite the DJI's sitting invitingly right on top of its
rising 65-dma. Still,
a good day tomorrow for the market, one where the
DJI and SPY close considerably above their openings should set off a
very tradable rally. It would likely
turn up their Closing Powers and their
5-day mvg. averages. Their 21-day moving averages would still be
resistance.
But short-term traders should be buyers if this happens.
------------------------------
Q U I C K S I L V E R V A L U E S
------------------------------
Key ETFs
4-18 4-19
CP Resistance IP21
5-dma Close Pivot Trend
trend Point
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA -31.8%
205.08 -1.09
206.33
Bearish 206 - 21-dma -.051
SPY -31.4%
233.87 -0.70 235.06
? 235 - 21-dma -.012
QQQ
-28.2%
131.28 -0.20 131.45
Bullish
132 - 21-dma
+.021
MDY
-28.0%
309.17
-0.05
312.74
?
310 - 21-dma
+.077
Note head/shoulders' neckline support at 305.
IWM
-18.5%
135.32 +.03 136.9
?
136 - 21-dma
+.060
TECL -47.9%
65.02
-.07 64.89
?
65.8 - 21-dma
+.019
FAS
-107.2%
42.63 -0.63
43.55 ? 43.6
- 21-dma
-.059
Note head/shoulders' neckline support at
41.
SOXL
-246.6% 70.21 +0.83
71.87
Bearish 74.5
- 21-dma
-.007
IBB -29.7% 287.67
-2.91
288.37
Bearish 291
- 21-dma
-.078
GLD +138.3%
122.82
+.58 121.19
Bullish
120- 21-dma +.17
4/18/17
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/18 /17 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/18/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND .919 .919 .928 .919 .857 .875
NIFTY .896 .931 .827 .862 .896 .965
EDU .875 .875 .75 .75 .875 .75
ETFS .852 .882 .823 .882 .882 .897
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .8 .85
HOMEBLDG .833 .777 .777 .722 .833 .833
UTILITY .822 .844 .755 .866 .844 .844
REIT .776 .734 .682 .729 .734 .661
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769
GAMING .766 .733 .666 .7 .766 .766
SOFTWARE .687 .64 .578 .687 .687 .671
N=11
NASD-100 .623 .602 .537 .602 .634 .698 SEMI .62 .603 .543 .577 .637 .655 INSURANC .617 .647 .558 .647 .647 .558 GOLD .584 .584 .641 .622 .584 .433 GREEN .58 .612 .516 .612 .709 .677 MORNSTAR .579 .609 .466 .596 .684 .672 HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 DOWJONES .566 .566 .533 .633 .633 .666 HACKERS .555 .5 .444 .555 .611 .555 INDEXES .554 .638 .495 .634 .697 .668 RUS-1000 .522 .52 .454 .517 .562 .57 SP500 .522 .533 .468 .531 .562 .604 ELECTRON .52 .53 .479 .505 .582 .592 CHEM .507 .492 .45 .577 .605 .605 N=14
CHINA .483 .58 .596 .645 .629 .677 SOLAR .473 .526 .421 .473 .526 .526 MILITARY .466 .488 .377 .466 .6 .511 BIOTECH .454 .525 .478 .426 .442 .478 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 SP-100 .443 .453 .391 .494 .515 .577 COMPUTER .44 .44 .4 .44 .56 .56 COMODITY .422 .507 .464 .464 .45 .436 RETAIL .339 .339 .285 .375 .428 .446 N=9
PIPELINE .333 .333 .333 .444 .555 .555 INDMATER .316 .316 .295 .377 .479 .459 FINANCE .282 .271 .228 .239 .282 .304 INFRA .272 .272 .181 .454 .545 .636 OILGAS .215 .227 .221 .278 .329 .348 TRANSP .2 .25 .2 .2 .45 .45 AUTO .175 .175 .15 .2 .25 .275 COAL .111 .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 REGBANKS .055 .083 .055 .083 .111 .083 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 0 0 .142 FOOD 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=11
==================================================================================
4/17/2017 A
Test of The DJI's Lower Band Is Probably Still Necessary.
Today's the oversold-recovery failed to bring a Peerless Buy. Volume
was too low. So, we still must wait for the Closing Powers of
DIA,
SPY and QQQ
break their downtrends or Peerless to give a
Buy signal near to the lower band. If the Closing Powers break their
downtrends or we get a new Peerless Buy, Buy DIA,
SPY or QQQ.
See how well these ETFs rallied when similar Closing Power
downtrends have been broken.
Part of the technical problem now is lack of Up Volume. Our
Bearish
MINCP stocks mostly fell. Professional shorts did not rush to cover today.
The lack of Up Volume results from the continuing weakness in other
ETFs, particularly in the SP-100 (OEX), where
the OBV has crashed and
in the other key ETFs, IWW,
MDY and FAS
are trapped in inauspicious-
looking head/shoulders patterns. The very negative Accumulation Index
is a warning that heavy selling or distribution is occurring when a rally
occurs. In fact, the DJI has not rallied two
straight days for more than
a month. This does not bode well for tomorrow.
Money is flowing mostly into the market's most
defensive realms: Bonds,
Utilities and Beverages. Foreign ETFs continue to hold up, too.
4/17/17
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/17 /17 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/17/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY .931 .827 .862 .896 .965 .965
BONDFUND .919 .928 .919 .857 .866 .83
ETFS .882 .823 .882 .882 .897 .882
EDU .875 .75 .75 .875 .75 .75
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .8 .85 .85
UTILITY .844 .755 .866 .844 .866 .866
HOMEBLDG .777 .777 .722 .833 .833 .833
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .692
REIT .734 .682 .729 .734 .661 .625
GAMING .733 .666 .7 .766 .766 .766
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
N=11
INSURANC .647 .558 .647 .647 .558 .441 SOFTWARE .64 .578 .687 .687 .687 .656 INDEXES .634 .495 .634 .697 .659 .613 GREEN .612 .516 .612 .709 .677 .58 MORNSTAR .609 .466 .596 .684 .676 .638 SEMI .603 .543 .577 .637 .655 .655 NASD-100 .602 .537 .602 .634 .698 .645 GOLD .584 .622 .641 .584 .433 .433 CHINA .58 .596 .645 .629 .725 .709 DOWJONES .566 .533 .633 .633 .633 .6 SP500 .533 .468 .531 .562 .602 .577 ELECTRON .53 .479 .51 .582 .592 .592 SOLAR .526 .421 .473 .526 .526 .473 BIOTECH .525 .478 .422 .442 .478 .47 RUS-1000 .52 .454 .517 .562 .568 .546 COMODITY .5 .457 .457 .442 .428 .357 HACKERS .5 .444 .555 .611 .611 .555 N=17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHEM .492 .45 .577 .605 .605 .577 MILITARY .488 .377 .466 .6 .511 .488 SP-100 .453 .391 .494 .515 .567 .546 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 COMPUTER .44 .4 .44 .56 .56 .6 RETAIL .339 .285 .375 .428 .446 .357 N=5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PIPELINE .333 .333 .444 .555 .555 .555 INDMATER .316 .295 .377 .479 .459 .448 INFRA .272 .181 .454 .545 .636 .727 FINANCE .271 .228 .239 .282 .304 .315 TRANSP .25 .2 .2 .45 .45 .4 OILGAS .227 .221 .278 .329 .335 .278 AUTO .175 .15 .2 .25 .275 .25 COAL .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 .222 REGBANKS .083 .055 .083 .111 .083 .111 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 0 .142 .142 FOOD 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=11
===================================================================================
4/13/2017
Despite today's sell-off, the NYSE A/D Line remains in
an uptrend and the P-Indicator remains positive. Fear of
war in Korea has now sent the DJI to a close
below its
still rising 65-dma. This is a high inflection point.
There
can either be a sustained decline from this point or a reversal
upwards. History does not show which is more likely when
the IP21 was well below 0 and the annualized rate of change
was rising at a modest annualized rate, below +.12, as now. Since
1929, I can find 10 occasions when selling short would have
been profitable and 9 cases where the DJI promptly turned
right around and rallied.
We have also another clue and it is more bullish.
The Tiger OBVPct has now reached
-.50. Until the 65-dma
turns down, such a low reading must
be regarded as showing the
market is "oversold".
See below.
The
key trading indicator now, I think, is the Closing Power and it is
falling for
all the major market ETFs. Gold (GLD) is major exception.
Traders should stay out of this market until Peerless gives
a new Buy signal and/or our Closing Powers turn "bullish".
I have been saying this for two weeks now.
What about the Peerless Buy B4?
It suggests a test of the lower
band may be needed, based on the 1939 case, as Poland was invaded
and WWII was started. The problem Peerless
has had on this decline
was the second Buy B4. It was not reversed
at the 3.6% upper band or
when the IP21 dropped below its 21-day
ma. The minor head/shoulders was
only a warning that the DJI would drop
to the 65-dma ma. The simplest solution
for Peerless
as a system would be for it to simply skip more days after its first
volume-based Buy B4 before allowing another one and for us now to let
the Closing Power or a new Peerless signal when to act...
Note the very low readings for "OP" or "OBVPct".
With our 65-dma still rising, this
shows an "oversold"
condition and a rally ought to occur. See the
cases below...
Q U I C K S I L V E R V A L U E S
Key ETFs
Ann. 4-12 4-13
CP Resistance IP21
5-dma Close Pivot Trend
trend Point
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA -50.4%
204.37 -1.3
206.38
Bearish 207 - 21-dma -.124
SPY -62.3%
232.51 -1.52 235.20
Bearish 235 - 21-dma -.121
QQQ
-39.8%
130.40 -.52 131.97
Bearish
132 - 21-dma
-.071
MDY
-81.8%
305.45
-3.45
310.08
Bearish
310 - 21-dma
-.007
Note head/shoulders' neckline support at 305.
IWM
-68.5%
133.72
-1.32
135.52 Bearish
136 - 21-dma
+.025
TECL
-159.9%
63.46
-.75
66.00 Bearish
66.1 - 21-dma -.077
FAS
-283.0%
41.45 -1.2
43.65 Bearish 44.1
- 21-dma
-.143
Note head/shoulders' neckline support at
41.
SOXL
-526.2% 66.77 -1.31
75.41
Bearish 75.2
- 21-dma
-.095
IBB +41.0% 290.59
+1.94
290.52
Bearish 291
- 21-dma
-.108
GLD +142.2%
122.60
+.69 119.46
Bullish
119- 21-dma
+.092
New Research: OBVPct Below -.50
It is reported that 600,000 North Koreans are being evacuated from its capital
because an attack by the US is considered imminent. These reports and
Trump's belligerent tone are starting to spook the market. We see
this most clearly in the way the DJI-30 has now fallen almost to its 65-
dma with its OBVPct now below -.50. More often than not, this shows
the market has reached an oversold condition. In a minority of cases,
the OBVPct falls below -.50 when a bear market is just starting. In these
cases, the 65-dma was already falling and the DJI was below it.
I have looked for all the cases where the OBVPct had fallen below -50, as it
has now, in a rising market and where the 65-dma was still rising. There
are only two since 1929. In both cases, the market soon turned around.
See these
two cases below. In 1972, the 65-dma was violated and the lower 2.5%
band had to be tagged before there was a reversal back upwards. But in
1995,
the OBVPCT nadir marked a superb spot to buy just as the DJI reached the
65-dma.
Two Most Similar Cases: Where
OBVPCT was below -.50 and DJI was
still above a rising 65-dma.
4/13/17
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/13 /17 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/13/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND .928 .919 .857 .866 .83 .776
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .8 .85 .85 .85
NIFTY .827 .862 .896 .965 .965 .896
ETFS .823 .882 .882 .897 .882 .897
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .833 .833 .833 .777
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769
UTILITY .755 .866 .844 .866 .866 .822
EDU .75 .75 .875 .75 .75 .75
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
REIT .682 .729 .734 .661 .619 .604
N = 10
GAMING .666 .7 .766 .766 .766 .666 GOLD .622 .622 .603 .433 .433 .396 CHINA .596 .645 .629 .725 .709 .661 SOFTWARE .578 .687 .687 .687 .671 .656 INSURANC .558 .647 .647 .558 .441 .47 SEMI .543 .577 .637 .655 .646 .629 NASD-100 .537 .602 .634 .698 .655 .677 DOWJONES .533 .633 .633 .633 .6 .633 GREEN .516 .612 .709 .677 .58 .612 N=9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDEXES .495 .634 .697 .659 .617 .617 ELECTRON .479 .51 .587 .592 .592 .582 BIOTECH .478 .422 .438 .478 .478 .458 SP500 .468 .531 .562 .602 .581 .579 MORNSTAR .466 .596 .684 .676 .638 .638 COMODITY .457 .457 .442 .428 .342 .371 RUS-1000 .454 .517 .562 .568 .55 .551 CHEM .45 .577 .605 .605 .591 .563 HACKERS .444 .555 .611 .611 .611 .5 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 SOLAR .421 .473 .526 .526 .473 .473 COMPUTER .4 .44 .56 .56 .6 .52 SP-100 .391 .494 .515 .567 .546 .556 MILITARY .377 .466 .6 .511 .488 .444 N=14
PIPELINE .333 .444 .555 .555 .555 .555 INDMATER .295 .377 .479 .459 .448 .397 RETAIL .285 .375 .428 .446 .357 .41 FINANCE .228 .239 .282 .304 .336 .326 OILGAS .221 .278 .329 .335 .278 .291 TRANSP .2 .2 .45 .45 .4 .4 INFRA .181 .454 .545 .636 .727 .454 AUTO .15 .2 .25 .275 .25 .225 COAL .111 .111 .111 .222 .222 .444 REGBANKS .055 .083 .111 .083 .111 .111 BIGBANKS 0 0 0 .142 .142 .142 FOOD 0 0 0 0 0 .071 N=12
===================================================================================
4/12/17
The main theme here for the last week or two has been to watch the
Professionals trading in DIA and SPY. Until their Closing Powers
and 5-day moving averages turn up, we just have to wait to commit to
the long side unless one is willing to ride out a DJI decline that may go
down to the lower band.
These Closing Powers and 5-day moving
averages are still falling. When we look back at the
DIA chart for the last
year, we can quickly see how the Closing Power breaking downtrends
not unlike the one now, set off excellent advances.
I have also said that the DJI's rising 65-dma is now moving up at only
a +13% annualized rate. So, this moving average now at 20473 (118 points
below today's close) may not act as strong support. Better support probably is
near
the DJI's lower 3.5% band at 20300.
When Buy B4 signals fail, as our recent B4 has apparently here, the DJI has always
found support
between the lower band and the rising 65-dma, except in one
case. The exception was on September 1,
1939
when Germany invaded Poland
and WWII started. See the chart below.
Reading the saga of the month
before the actual invasion, one can see why traders hearing of these frightening
developments would have been selling. See Wikopedia's account:
(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland )
Now with the US "armada" moving towards a probable showdown
with North Korea over
its nuclear armed long-ranged missiles, tensions are
growing
in the same way.
The Biggest Failed Buy B4
occurs at the start of WW II.
If anything, I would say Wall Street appears not too worried about the
dangers of actual fighting. The DJI, after all is still above its 65-dma
as is the NASDAQ. Nor has the number head/shoulders price patterns in
SP-500 stocks reached levels seen before other big intermediate-term sell-offs.
But the excellent breadth we have been seeing where the NYSE A/D Line keeps
making new highs of the DJI is not an absolute guard against a big selloff.
But, as I showed last night, it gives a sell-off of 7%-8% from the DJI's
recent peak only a 25% probability.
Given the developing drama between North Korea and the US, I think prudence
is warranted. Let's wait for a big Closing Power hook back up or a
new Peerless Buy signal near the lower 3% band.
Q U I C K S I L V E R V A L U E S
Key ETFs
Ann. 4-12 4-13
CP Resistance
5-dma Close Pivot Trend
trend Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA -14.3%
205.67 -.66
206.45
Bearish 207 - 21-dma
SPY -15.9%
234.03-1.03 235.44
Bearish 236 - 21-dma
QQQ
-39.8%
130.92 -.53 132.04
Bearish
132 - 21-dma
MDY
+16.3%
308.9
-3.84
310.53
Bullish
311 - 21-dma
IWM
+26.2%
135.04
-1.86
135.58 Bearish
136 - 21-dma
TECL
-151.3%
64.21 -.68
66.06 Bearish
66.1 - 21-dma
FAS
-71.1%
42.65 -.9
43.91 Bearish 44.4
- 21-dma
SOXL
-410.0% 68.08 -3.79
74.42
Bearish 75.7
- 21-dma
IBB +21.3% 288.65
+.28
288.22
Bearish 292
- 21-dma
A red pivot point above, shows how much
prices will need to rally
to turn up the ETF's 5-day ma or keep it rising. Only IBB is currently
closed above its Thrusday pivot-point. Bulls should wait to buy.
Developing Head/Shoulders - Not completed,
but should be watched... DJI-20, IBB and FAS.
4/12/17
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/12/17 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
S&P Head/Shoulders completed:
ADI
AIG
AKAM
AXP
CVX
NTAP
S&P Potential Head/Shoulders
CSX,
MMM, MTB,
NVDA, STI
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/12/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND .919 .857 .866 .83 .767 .553
ETFS .882 .882 .897 .882 .897 .941
UTILITY .866 .844 .866 .866 .822 .822
NIFTY .862 .896 .965 .965 .896 .896
BEVERAGE .85 .8 .85 .85 .85 .85
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769
EDU .75 .875 .75 .75 .75 .75
REIT .729 .734 .661 .619 .604 .531
HOMEBLDG .722 .833 .833 .833 .777 .722
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .7 .766 .766 .766 .7 .666
SOFTWARE .687 .687 .687 .671 .656 .593
N= 12
INSURANC .647 .647 .558 .441 .47 .47 CHINA .645 .629 .725 .709 .693 .629 DOWJONES .633 .633 .633 .6 .633 .633 INDEXES .63 .697 .659 .617 .613 .579 GOLD .622 .584 .452 .433 .415 .471 GREEN .612 .709 .677 .58 .58 .516 NASD-100 .602 .634 .698 .655 .677 .666 MORNSTAR .596 .684 .676 .638 .642 .588 CHEM .577 .605 .605 .591 .563 .549 SEMI .577 .637 .655 .646 .629 .629 HACKERS .555 .611 .611 .611 .5 .555 SP500 .531 .562 .602 .581 .579 .541 RUS-1000 .517 .562 .568 .55 .552 .517 ELECTRON .51 .587 .597 .592 .577 .556 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SP-100 .494 .515 .567 .546 .556 .536 SOLAR .473 .526 .526 .473 .473 .473 MILITARY .466 .6 .511 .488 .444 .422 COMODITY .457 .442 .428 .342 .385 .385 INFRA .454 .545 .636 .727 .454 .181 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 PIPELINE .444 .555 .555 .555 .555 .444 COMPUTER .44 .56 .56 .6 .52 .48 BIOTECH .422 .438 .474 .478 .462 .45 INDMATER .377 .479 .459 .448 .397 .357 RETAIL .375 .428 .446 .357 .41 .321
OILGAS .278 .329 .335 .278 .291 .246 FINANCE .239 .282 .304 .336 .326 .282 AUTO .2 .25 .275 .25 .225 .2 TRANSP .2 .45 .45 .4 .4 .35 COAL .111 .111 .222 .222 .444 .111 REGBANKS .083 .111 .083 .111 .111 .083 BIGBANKS 0 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 FOOD 0 0 0 0 .071 .214 N= 8
=====================================================================================
4/11/2017 Stick with the Peerless Buy. Look for a rally
soon.
The DJI is only 181 points above its rising
65-dma.
the bounce will be bullish only if it holds a good gain up from
the opening. More mid-day fades are not wanted.
Short-term traders may want to buy IWM and MDY as
well as DIA on a big move up
this week
where there
is no serious late-in-the-day retreat. With QQQ, we
will need to see it again out-performing DIA.
Index and ETF Charts: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
The DJI has lagged the NYSE A/D Line by a wide margin.
In 75% of the cases in the past where such a divergence developed, it
was soon resolved by a DJI rally to the upper 3% band or higher.
Only in 2 of 8 cases did the DJI fall by as much as 7% from
its earlier peak. I like those odds.
Trump's big switch on Russia over Syria will suggest to
many that Trump wants to make peace with the Military-Intelligence
Elites in Washington. I would think Wall Street will welcome this.
See in NY Times tonight:
Trump's Shift on Russia Brings Geopolitical Whiplash
(
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/world/europe/russia-putin-trump.html?emc=edit_th_20170412&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894&_r=0
)
Today's DJI decline looked quite false.
There were 708 more
up than down on the NYSE despite the DJI's early 100-point
sell off. Not only this, but the Midcaps
(MDY) and Russell-2000 (IWM)
were up nicely and are now back above both their 21-day and
65-dma. They do still need to breakout above the apexes of
their potential right shoulder H/S peaks. We may also see bounces
tomorrow from SOXL and
IBB from the support of their rising
65-dma.
But another rally that peaks at mid-day would be disappointing.
Watch the close tomorrow. A big jump by the close up from the opening
in the case of DIA would probably mean a break in its downtrending
Closing Power. I think this will start a nice April advance up
towards the 3% upper band.
Q U I C K S I L V E R
V A L U E S
Key ETFs
Ann. 4-11 4-12
CP Resistance
5-dma Close Pivot Trend
trend Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA -7.8%
206.33 -.06 206.25
Bearish 207 - 21-dma
SPY -8.9%
235.06 -.28 234.78
? 236 - 21-dma
QQQ
-40.1%
131.45 -.57 131.97
Bullish
133.6
MDY
+39.8%
312.74
+1.84 307.89
Bullish
314.81
Closed above 65-dma/21-dma
IWM
+38%
136.90
+1.08
134.33
Bullish
138.5 Closed above 65-dma/21-dma
TECL
-146.6%
64.89 -.75
66.20 Bearish
68.38
FAS
-37.8%
43.55 -.10 43.27 ?
44.6
- 21-dma
SOXL
-261.8% 71.87 -1.79
74.14
Bearish
At rising 65-dma support- 70.1
IBB
-52.4% 288.37 -1.02
287.42
Bearish
At rising 65-dma support- 288
New Study
What Does The Past Suggest We Can Expect When
NYSE Breadth Is Much Better Than The Action of
DJIA, Current Accumulation (IP21) and Volume
(V-I and OBVPct)?
There are not many cases. I can only find 8 earlier instances of this
They are all recent. Only in two cases did the DJI fall as much as 7%
from its previous high. In the other 6 cases, if the DJI did decline
anymore, it was less than 3% and in these cases DJI always soon rallied
to and tagged the 3% upper band.
LA/ 21-dma P-I P-I
IP21 VI OBCPct 65day
65-dma
MA AROC change
Up Pct AROC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now 4/11/2017
.997 -.132
+316 +5
-.067 -77 -.405
+.034 +.12
highest
lowest
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
12/20/2005
10805.55 .996 .043
+142 -30 -.12 -46
-.182 +.023 +.09
DJI goes sidewise for next month and then rallies
for 4 months to new highs and finally a successful Sell S9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4/10/2006
11141.33 .994 .069 +118 -91
-.072 -12 +.073 +.023
+.09
DJI rallies 5% on this test of rising 65-dma
and sets off a successful Sell S9.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/22/2009
8277.32 .995 .459 +300 -27
-.056 -38 -.106 +.108
+.40
DJI quickly rallies to upper band and then
falls 7 1/2%, briefly breaking 65-dma.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8/27/2012 13124.67 .999 .044
+118 -105 -.063 -28 -.162
+.047 +.17
DJI soon rallies to upper band (for S4, S8)
and then falls 7 1/2% and below 65-dma.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/19/2012 13473.53 .997 .193 +116
-52 -.063 -42 +.076
+.057 +.21
DJI keeps falling after Sell S4/S8, breaks
65-dma and bottoms 7% below previous high.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/24/2014
15879.11 .968 -.301 +157 -172
-.072 -71 -.23
+.031 +.11
DJI keeps falling after Sell S16, breaks
65-dma and bottoms 7% below previous high.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/12/2015
17640.84 .997 .072 +124 60
-.100 -36 +.099 +.038
+.14
DJI falls 3% and
then rallies nearly to upper 3.5% band and goes sidewise for four
months.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9/21/2016
18293.70 .998 -.153 +118 103
-.062 -82 -.224 +.027
+.10
DJI slowly falls 1.5% over next 7 weeks and
then rises sharply with Election of
Trump.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/11/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/11/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY .896 .965 .965 .896 .896 .931
("Nifty" consists of AAPL, ADBE, ADP, ALGN, AMT, AMZN, ATVI, AVGO, CHDN, CPA, CTAS, EQIX,
EXPD, FB. FISV, GOOG, HD, HSKA, JNPR, LMT, MSFT, NVR, PCL, PLVS, PNRA, REGN, TSLA, VRTX & XLNX)
NON-US ETFS .882 .897 .882 .897 .941 .955
EDU .875 .75 .75 .75 .75 .625
BONDFUND .857 .866 .83 .767 .553 .589
UTILITY .844 .866 .866 .822 .822 .822
HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .833 .777 .722 .666
BEVERAGE .8 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
DJI-13 .769 .769 .692 .769 .769 .769
GAMING .766 .766 .766 .7 .7 .7
REIT .734 .661 .619 .604 .531 .546
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GREEN .709 .677 .58 .58 .516 .516
INDEXES .697 .659 .617 .613 .584 .617
SOFTWARE .687 .687 .671 .656 .593 .625
MORNSTAR .684 .676 .638 .642 .592 .663
N=15
INSURANC .647 .558 .441 .47 .47 .558 SEMI .637 .655 .646 .629 .629 .672 NASD-100 .634 .698 .655 .677 .666 .688 DOWJONES .633 .633 .6 .633 .633 .7 CHINA .629 .725 .709 .693 .645 .725 HACKERS .611 .611 .611 .5 .5 .555 CHEM .605 .605 .591 .563 .549 .633 MILITARY .6 .511 .488 .444 .422 .466 ELECTRON .587 .597 .597 .577 .556 .603 GOLD .584 .433 .452 .415 .471 .433 RUS-1000 .562 .568 .55 .552 .521 .558 SP500 .562 .602 .581 .579 .541 .568 COMPUTER .56 .56 .6 .52 .48 .6 PIPELINE .555 .555 .555 .555 .444 .444 INFRA .545 .636 .727 .454 .181 .363 SOLAR .526 .526 .473 .473 .473 .473 SP-100 .515 .567 .546 .556 .536 .587 INDMATER .479 .459 .448 .397 .357 .397 COMODITY .45 .422 .338 .38 .38 .352 TRANSP .45 .45 .4 .4 .35 .4 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 BIOTECH .438 .474 .474 .462 .462 .549 RETAIL .428 .446 .357 .41 .321 .357
OILGAS .329 .335 .278 .291 .246 .265 FINANCE .282 .304 .336 .326 .293 .358 AUTO .25 .275 .25 .225 .2 .225 COAL .111 .222 .222 .444 .111 .222 REGBANKS .111 .083 .111 .111 .083 .111 BIGBANKS 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 FOOD 0 0 0 .066 .2 .133 N=7
===================================================================================
4/10/2017
Stick with the Peerless Buy B4.
Short-term traders should
wait a little longer
to re-commit to the upside. The Closing
Power for DIA needs to break its downtrend. See below how
this event set off 3 fine rallies in the past year. QQQ is the closest
to being a Buy using our short-term QuickSilver approach. Its
Closing Power is rising but it is below its 21-day ma and it will need
to close 0.50 higher on Tuesday to turn its 5-day ma up. It is
sitting on a still rising 21-day ma.
The market has held up well given the risks
of another Korean
War! The NYSE A/D line made another new high today far ahead of
the DJI-30. There were 1004 more up than down on the NYSE.
The 10-day ma of NYSE Up volume is above Down Volume. Tonight
there were 4 times more MAXCP stocks (where Closing Power
was making a new high) than MINCPs (where Closing Power was
making a new low). Day traders pushed 124 stocks up signifcantly
(TTH) and only 56 (TTL) down.
But something is holding back the highest priced and most
heavily weighted stocks in the Dow Jones Ind. Average. See
the chart of DJI-13 below. And something is holding back
the biggest Bank stocks. See this in our Tiger Index of the Big
Banks and also note the falling Closing Power of FAS. Usually
such weakness in the biggest Banks stocks has to do with a
weakening Dollar and a sense that the the FED
may be tightening
monetary policy not far ahead.
Wall Street Professionals are worth watching now.
They are more likely to have better information about
the FED's intentions. Let's wait for DIA's Closing Power
to break its downtrends. Short-term traders may want to
play QQQ on the long side if it can close 0.50 higher.
With a Tax Cut and a Job Stimulus program still ahead,
any decline to the lower band should be a very good buying
opportunity.
The market makes an interesting study of conflicting technicals
now. On the one hand, breadth as measured by the P-I being
above +300 is clearly quite bullish. On the other hand, our
Accum. Index and OBVPct remain bearishly negative and the
DJIA is stuck below its 21-day. Check in tomorrow night
and I will show what happened in the past when there was such
a fight between our internal strength indicators.
QQQ may be ready for another
attempt for a breakout above its
rising resistance line.
The DJIA's Peerless Key Values are fighting
among themselves. The P-I is above +300 but
the IP21 and OBVPct are negative and the DJI
stuck below its falling 21-dma. Meanwhile,
DIA's Closing Power continues its downtrend.
The DJI-30's most heavily weighted stocks, especially
Goldman Sachs and the Big Banks, look especially
"toppish" and unlikely to rise much. This is usually
not good for the market as a whole. But they also are
holding above their recent lows, too.
4/10/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC,
NIB, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
4/10/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/10/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY .965 .965 .896 .896 .931 .896
ETFS .897 .882 .897 .941 .955 .926
BONDFUND .866 .83 .767 .553 .616 .642
UTILITY .866 .866 .822 .822 .844 .844
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
HOMEBLDG .833 .833 .777 .722 .666 .666
DJI-13 .769 .692 .769 .769 .769 .769
GAMING .766 .766 .7 .7 .7 .766
EDU .75 .75 .75 .75 .625 .75
CHINA .725 .709 .693 .645 .741 .709
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
NASD-100 .698 .655 .677 .666 .688 .655
SOFTWARE .687 .671 .656 .593 .656 .687
GREEN .677 .58 .58 .516 .516 .516
MORNSTAR .676 .638 .642 .592 .663 .647
N= 15
REIT .661 .619 .604 .531 .546 .52 INDEXES .659 .617 .613 .584 .609 .617 SEMI .655 .646 .629 .629 .672 .672 INFRA .636 .727 .454 .181 .363 .363 DOWJONES .633 .6 .633 .633 .7 .666 HACKERS .611 .611 .5 .5 .611 .555 CHEM .605 .591 .563 .549 .633 .605 SP500 .602 .581 .579 .541 .575 .568 ELECTRON .597 .597 .582 .556 .603 .618 RUS-1000 .568 .55 .552 .521 .564 .553 SP-100 .567 .546 .556 .536 .587 .556 COMPUTER .56 .6 .52 .48 .6 .56 INSURANC .558 .441 .47 .47 .558 .558 PIPELINE .555 .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 SOLAR .526 .473 .473 .473 .473 .421 MILITARY .511 .488 .444 .422 .466 .511 BIOTECH .474 .474 .458 .462 .553 .581 INDMATER .459 .448 .397 .357 .397 .377 TRANSP .45 .4 .4 .35 .4 .4 RETAIL .446 .357 .41 .321 .357 .375 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 GOLD .433 .433 .433 .471 .433 .358 COMODITY .428 .342 .385 .385 .357 .328 OILGAS .335 .278 .291 .246 .265 .259
FINANCE .304 .336 .326 .293 .358 .369 AUTO .275 .25 .225 .2 .225 .225 COAL .222 .222 .444 .111 .222 .222 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 REGBANKS .083 .111 .111 .083 .111 .111 FOOD 0 0 .066 .2 .133 .133 N=6
===================================================================================
4/7/2017
Stick with the Peerless Buy B4. Short-term trader should
wait a little longer
to re-commit to the upside.
The Tiger Closing Powers are not pointing up, except for QQQ and MDY,
Professionals are cautious and still selectively buying high priced tech stocks.
They are not bullish the general market. Bank stocks are depressants.
Without
clear leadership, the DJI may have to go to the lower band.
But see below
in the DIA chart how we can
very likely spot the start of the next rally
by watching
Closing Power. When it breaks its current downtrend, DIA and
the general market could start shooting up like it has done in the three
previous
instances.
Right now, among the key ETFs only DIA shows a rising 5-day ma, and just barely.
None show both a rising 5-dma and a rising Closing Power. So, traders
should
probably wait for either a Closing Power down-trend-break in DIA or a new
Peerless Buy signal to buy these ETFs.
Q U I C K S I L V E R
V A L U E S
Key ETFs
Ann. 4-7 4-10
CP Resistance
5-dma Close Pivot Trend
trend Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
+1%
206.38 -.07. 206.25
Bearish 207 - 21-dma
SPY -11.5%
235.20 -.24 235.33
? 236 - 21-dma
QQQ
-15.5%
131.97 -.07 132.30
Bullish 133.6
MDY
-37.7%
310.08 -.45 310.73
Bullish 313.63 trendl.
IWM
-72.1%
135.52 -.06 136.38 Bearish
138
TECL
-71.4%
66.00 -.06
66.75 Bearish
68.38
FAS
-85.4%
43.65 -.26
44.15 Bearish
45.
- 21-dma
Using the Peerless Key Values To Predict The DJIA.
The DJI can't seem to overpower the resistance at its falling 21-dma,
83 points higher. We can predict that this will continue as long as
the
annualized rate of change of the 21-dma (-.116) is
below -.07 and the
Current Accum. (IP21 - -.078) is below -.07.
Seasonality is bullish but war ships
are steaming towards North Korea.
This create lots of uncertainties. A test of the lower band may be forthcoming.
If that happens, with breadth and the P-Indicator so positive, we
should get a Buy B2 or a Buy B9 there. But see how the upward
momentum of the 65-dma is weakening. That support may not be enough.
That's why we may have to see the 3.5% lower band tagged
again before mounting a rally to new highs.
4/9/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks.
S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with CP
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL
RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS
AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM
Others REN, JJC, NIB, WEAT UUP (DollAR)
4/7/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/7/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIFTY .965 .896 .896 .931 .896 .931
ETFS .882 .897 .941 .955 .926 .911
UTILITY .866 .822 .822 .844 .844 .866
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
HOMEBLDG .833 .777 .722 .666 .666 .666
BONDFUND .83 .767 .553 .616 .66 .598
GAMING .766 .7 .7 .7 .733 .766
EDU .75 .75 .75 .625 .75 .875
INFRA .727 .454 .181 .363 .363 .363
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
CHINA .709 .693 .645 .741 .709 .709
DJI-13 .692 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769
SOFTWARE .671 .656 .593 .656 .687 .671
N= 13
NASD-100 .655 .677 .666 .688 .655 .709 SEMI .646 .629 .629 .672 .681 .724 MORNSTAR .638 .642 .592 .663 .647 .714 REIT .619 .604 .531 .546 .526 .5 INDEXES .617 .613 .584 .609 .617 .634 HACKERS .611 .5 .5 .611 .555 .555 COMPUTER .6 .52 .48 .6 .56 .64 DOWJONES .6 .633 .633 .7 .7 .7 ELECTRON .597 .582 .561 .603 .623 .67 CHEM .591 .563 .549 .633 .619 .647 SP500 .581 .579 .541 .575 .577 .604 GREEN .58 .58 .516 .516 .516 .612 PIPELINE .555 .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 RUS-1000 .55 .552 .521 .564 .558 .596 SP-100 .546 .556 .536 .587 .567 .587 MILITARY .488 .444 .422 .466 .511 .555 BIOTECH .474 .458 .458 .553 .581 .592 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .473 .421 .473 INDMATER .448 .397 .357 .397 .377 .408 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 INSURANC .441 .47 .47 .558 .558 .676 GOLD .433 .415 .49 .433 .358 .32 TRANSP .4 .4 .35 .4 .4 .45 RETAIL .357 .41 .321 .357 .375 .482 COMODITY .338 .38 .38 .352 .309 .366
FINANCE .336 .326 .293 .358 .38 .413 OILGAS .278 .291 .246 .265 .259 .24 AUTO .25 .225 .2 .225 .225 .3 COAL .222 .444 .111 .222 .222 .111 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 REGBANKS .111 .111 .083 .111 .111 .138 FOOD 0 .066 .2 .133 .133 .266 N=7
===================================================================================
4/6/2017 Stick with the Buy B4. The market may be stuck
approximately where it is for a while longer, but the most
important internals I look at are improving. Any DJI test of
its lower band will almost certainly bring new Peerless Buy
signals.
Seasonality is very bullish for the next two weeks.
Since 1965, the DJI has risen 70% of these years.
Its average gain in an impressive 1.3% for the
next 10 trading days and 2.0% for the next month.
Latest Jobs Report just out shows a weakening economy. Not a good
thing if FED goes ahead with plans to raise rates to curb stock
market's supposed "over-exuberance". 180,000 was expected.
One weak number does not show a pattern, of course.
See
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/business/economy/job-creation-unemployment-trump.html
| Jobs Report just out |
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DJI - Chart with A/D Line and 10-day ma
of Up Volume and Down Volume.
The
DJI-15
(highest priced DJI stocks' Index) does
appear to
be trapped in its emerging head/shoulders. In time, I suspect
it will breakout to the upside. But it may take a month or
two.
Note the bullish signs. The
A/D Line made a new high today.
The Hourly DJI's OBV is bullishly diverging from prices. The
10-day ma of NYSE Down Volume has not turned up. The ETFs
showing head/shoulders patterns, namely
BBH,
IWM,
FAS and
MDY did not
show more weakness today.
Most of all, I think what we need now is a breakout by the
NASDAQ
or QQQ above their flat resistance-lines and a move by the DJI back
above its 21-day ma.
Let's see if these bullish elements can bring a new DJI rally.
Short-term traders should, I think come back in on the long side
when a key ETF moves above its 5-day ma pivot point its Closing
Power is rated "bullish".
Q U I C K S I L V E R V A L U E S
Key ETFs 5-dma 4-6 4-7
CP Resistance
trend Close Pivot
Trend
Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
Falling
206.45 +.19 206.34
Bearish 207 - 21-dma
SPY
Falling
235.44 +66 235.74
? 236 - 21-dma
QQQ
Falling
132.04 +.07 132.47
Bullish 133.6
MDY
Falling
310.53 +2.64 312.42
? 313.63
trendl.
IWM
Falling
135.58 +1.25 137.48 Bearish
136 - 21-dma
TECL
Falling
66.06 -.14
66.95 Bearish
68.38
4/6/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT UUP (DollAR)
4/6/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/6/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .897 .941 .955 .926 .911 .911
NIFTY .896 .896 .931 .896 .931 .931
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .822 .822 .844 .844 .866 .8
HOMEBLDG .777 .722 .666 .666 .666 .722
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769
BONDFUND .767 .553 .616 .66 .616 .58
EDU .75 .75 .625 .75 .875 .875
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .7 .7 .7 .733 .766 .766
CHINA .693 .645 .741 .709 .709 .693
NASD-100 .677 .666 .688 .655 .709 .731
N=12
SOFTWARE .656 .593 .656 .687 .671 .656 MORNSTAR .642 .592 .663 .647 .714 .697 DOWJONES .633 .633 .7 .7 .7 .733 SEMI .629 .629 .672 .681 .724 .741 INDEXES .613 .584 .609 .617 .63 .63 REIT .604 .531 .546 .526 .51 .463 ELECTRON .582 .561 .608 .623 .67 .68 GREEN .58 .516 .516 .516 .612 .612 SP500 .579 .541 .575 .577 .604 .618 CHEM .563 .549 .633 .619 .661 .647 SP-100 .556 .536 .587 .567 .587 .639 PIPELINE .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 .222 RUS-1000 .552 .521 .564 .558 .6 .598 COMPUTER .52 .48 .6 .56 .64 .6 HACKERS .5 .5 .611 .555 .555 .555 SOLAR .473 .473 .473 .421 .473 .473 INSURANC .47 .47 .558 .558 .676 .588 BIOTECH .458 .458 .549 .581 .592 .573 INFRA .454 .181 .363 .363 .363 .363 COAL .444 .111 .222 .222 .111 .222 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 MILITARY .444 .422 .466 .511 .555 .577 GOLD .415 .471 .452 .358 .32 .283 RETAIL .41 .321 .357 .375 .482 .5 TRANSP .4 .35 .4 .4 .45 .45 INDMATER .397 .357 .397 .377 .408 .418 COMODITY .38 .38 .352 .309 .366 .38
FINANCE .326 .293 .358 .38 .423 .5 OILGAS .291 .246 .265 .259 .24 .221 AUTO .225 .2 .225 .225 .325 .375 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .428 REGBANKS .111 .083 .111 .111 .138 .222 FOOD .066 .2 .133 .133 .266 .266 N=6
===================================================================================
4/5/2017 Given the
operative Peerless Buy B4, the DJI
should not drop below the the lower band. But a test of that
level seems likely after today's disappointing action.
The good news is that most often, the final top in the
DJI occurs at the upper band
and only when either the P-Indicator or the Accumulation
Index is negative. So,
on this basis, too, I think we are entitled to at least
one more good advance. And I
expect the next top to coincide with Congress passing a
tax cut and a big Infrastructure
program.
The NY Times reports that Trump is "accelerating" his
trillion dollar infrastructure plan. This
is bullish. A rebound
tomorrow seems likely.
(
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/05/us/politics/donald-trump-infrastructure-bill.html?emc=edit_th_20170406&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
)
Bullishly, the A/D Line remains in an uptrend and the 10-day ma
of NYSE Down Volume remains in a downtrend, too. See below.
4/5/17: PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators DJI-13 Hourly DJIA S&P OEX NYSE NASDAQ COMPQX with Closing Power DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM Short Term Interest Rates DJI-Utilities DJI-Transp A/D Line-6000 Stocks
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA XIV YINN
To STOCKS' CHARTS AAPL AMAT AMZN BIDU CAT FB GOOG GS IBM MSFT NVDA JPM Others REN, CHOC NIB, JJC, WEAT UUP (DollAR)
4/5/2017: Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
But short-term I admit I am worried.
There is no arguing that after
reaching the upper band at the start of March, the DJI has
since
been in a downtrend. See the
Hourly DJI chart.
Short-term traders, I think,
should now be using our QuickSilver strategy
and stay out of each major market ETF until its Closing
Powers and 5-day
moving average are rising or until Peerless gives a new
buy signal. Only
QQQ still shows its Closing Power to be uptrending. This can
be held a little longer. Give TECL another day. It may rebound
tomorrow.
Today the DJI again
could not close above the resistance of its
falling 21-day ma. As long as the IP21 and V-Indicator are
negative,
the 21-day ma is apt to be a barrier. In this situation,
I'm no longer so
sure the 65-dma will hold on the next test. Its annualized
rate of ascent
has slowed down to just 16%.
The next decline, if the NYSE A/D Line
uptrend breaks, will probably be to 20000-20200.
There are some other serious warning signs now. Food and
fuel prices are
falling. A number of major retail stocks show serious
weakness. Big
Banks must sense trouble ahead. The Closing Power for
FAS is
in a downtrend. Biotechs and
Mid-Caps (MDY and IWM)
now show bearish
head/shoulders patterns. And two important tech stocks,
IBM and NVDA
show bearish head/shoulders patterns.
April is usually a month that allows a good rally
above the 21-day ma.
But today's rally on good Jobs' news above that
level was quickly shot down
by the hawks at the Fed.
Think about this. The DJI
lost 200 points in just the last two hours of trading,
all because their "Minutes" showed that Yellen and the
majority were ready to
raise rates further, but not because of inflation in the
form of rising commodity, labor,
producer or consumer costs and prices, but because stocks
are too high.
I think the market is right to be scared. This is very
dangerous thinking.
In 1929, 1937 and 1987, it was worries about excessive
stock market speculation
that caused the Fed to raise rates. Real inflation was
minimal. In 1929 and 1937,
business was even contracting. The Fed seems unaware of
just how powerful they are.
But what can we do? They created the long bull market.
Now they want to take it all away.
Perhaps, so Trump will be blamed!?
Q U I C K S I L V E R V A L U E S
Key ETFs 5-dma 4-5 4-6
CP
trend Close Pivot
Trend
Point
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
Falling
206.26 206.96
Bearish
SPY
Falling
234.78 236.29
?
QQQ
Falling
131.97 132.47
Bullish
MDY
Falling
307.89 312.32
Bearish
IWM
Falling
134.33 137.26
Bearish
TECL
Falling
66.20
67.26 ?
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/5/17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETFS .941 .955 .926 .911 .911 .941
NIFTY .896 .931 .896 .931 .931 .931
BEVERAGE .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85
UTILITY .822 .844 .844 .866 .8 .866
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .692
EDU .75 .625 .75 .875 .875 .75
HOMEBLDG .722 .666 .666 .666 .722 .666
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .7 .7 .733 .766 .766 .733
N= 9
NASD-100 .666 .688 .655 .709 .731 .741 CHINA .645 .741 .709 .709 .709 .677 DOWJONES .633 .7 .7 .7 .733 .7 SEMI .629 .672 .681 .724 .732 .706 SOFTWARE .593 .656 .687 .671 .656 .625 MORNSTAR .592 .663 .647 .714 .701 .655 INDEXES .584 .609 .617 .63 .634 .596 ELECTRON .561 .608 .628 .67 .67 .644 BONDFUND .553 .616 .66 .616 .589 .598 CHEM .549 .633 .619 .661 .633 .619 SP500 .541 .575 .577 .604 .618 .589 SP-100 .536 .587 .567 .587 .639 .587 REIT .531 .546 .526 .51 .463 .437 RUS-1000 .521 .564 .558 .6 .599 .57 GREEN .516 .516 .516 .612 .58 .548 HACKERS .5 .611 .555 .555 .555 .5 COMPUTER .48 .6 .56 .64 .6 .6 SOLAR .473 .473 .421 .473 .473 .473 GOLD .471 .433 .377 .32 .301 .339 INSURANC .47 .558 .558 .676 .588 .588 BIOTECH .458 .549 .577 .592 .577 .596 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 .444 PIPELINE .444 .444 .444 .444 .222 .222 MILITARY .422 .466 .511 .555 .6 .555 COMODITY .38 .352 .309 .366 .38 .394 INDMATER .357 .397 .377 .408 .408 .377 TRANSP .35 .4 .4 .45 .45 .35
RETAIL .321 .357 .375 .482 .5 .517 FINANCE .293 .358 .38 .423 .5 .38 OILGAS .246 .265 .259 .24 .215 .234 AUTO .2 .225 .225 .325 .375 .375 FOOD .2 .133 .133 .266 .266 .2 INFRA .181 .363 .363 .363 .363 .363 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .428 .285 COAL .111 .222 .222 .111 .222 .222 REGBANKS .083 .111 .111 .138 .222 .083 N=9