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HELP
A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
-----> More HELP LINKS
Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016 ---> Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016 ---> High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 ---> Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016 ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016 ---> Killer Short Selling Techniques: ===> Order Here ($42.50)
It's As Easy as 1,2,3
TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling... Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
Earlier Q-Answers
QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
Our Different Signals
Better understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
New TigerPeerless Installation and Basic Uses' Instruction
See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells.
Study- Trading SPY WITHOUT Peerless - Some Guidelines.
When completed this will be a new Tiger Trading E-Book.
Study- Examples of "Hands above the Head" top patterns.
Study- 9/3/2017 TigerSoft (not Peerless) charts of Major Tops as they occurred.
===> Please report any broken or out-of-date links. william_schmidt@hotmail.com
====================================================================
====================================================================
7/31/2019 Our Buy B10 signal has just suffered a "false breakout". This means that DJI-
27000 will now be resistance. Given the absence of a new Peerless Sell signal,
it means that the DJI may have to retest its rising 65-dma if the A/D Line
uptrend shown below is broken.
Weakness after the Opening is a big problem.
Our Tiger Day Traders' Tool is now testing the December lows.
A violation of that low would be dismaying and a bearish sign.
The DJI's box pattern has quickly turned into a minor head and shoulders
pattern. This is short-term bearish. In addition, our Day Traders' Tool
has broken down for DIA, but not for SPY and QQQ. I would not think
that the DJI will fall below 26400. Its Accumulation Index is too positive.
I think it is also worth noting that twice before Peerless gave a Buy B10
that reversed the previous Sell S9-V. After some hesitation, in both those
earlier cases, 1973 and 1996, the DJI rose again.
Traders took profits not so much on the news of the rate cut as Powell's
side-comment that there would be no more. In doing so, they dropped the
DJI back below 27000. This warns us that there could be a further drop
to the next support, the DJI's rising 65-dma, near 26400. The 1/4% drop
in rates really only achnowledged the defacto decline in interest rates.
So, it was disappointing to those who hoped for a 1/2% cut and something
closer to the very low rates in Europe.
This will shake up the market for a while. Friday's Job numbers will now
take on extra importance, as we see if the economy is, indeed, weakening.
But remember, the bullish seasonality is still at work in August, as are the now
even lower rates, a Dollar at another new high helping bank stocks and FAS...
We have a strong bond market and a still rising A/D Line. Hedging with some
bearish MINCPs short sales is now recommended. Selling DIA is probably
a good idea until the DJI can get back above 27000. With GLD's uptrend
broken, NUGT is too vulnerable to hold, but I would not sell GLD. QQQ
shows a high Accumulation reading and has not broken its recent support
and so should be held long. MSFT, HIG and FAS should also be held long.
The NASDAQ and QQQ are stronger than DJI
and most often top out after the DJIA does.
Charts 7/31/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/31/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-31/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-31/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 07/31/19Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 268.52 -3.39 271.39 -75.2% Bullish RED .29 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 341.18 -6.28 348.09 -290.6% ------- RED .032 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 297.43 -3.29 300 -66.6% Bullish RED .228 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.1 -2.68 193.3 -104.2% Bullish RED .285 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.92 -4.09 357.87 -49.2% Bullish RED .178 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.56 -1.28 155.36 -22.3% Bullish RED .067 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.32 -1.44 79.9 -128.9% Bullish RED .267 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.31 .12 24.39 -185.9% ------- BLUE -.056 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 172.3 -18.42 190.69 -740.5% Bullish RED .143 .399 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 173.39 -8.38 182.57 -371.4% Bullish RED .16 .226 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.66 -.7 104.2 -.9% ------- RED -.024 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.21 -1.77 133.42 -43.2% ------- RED .078 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.42 .12 14.18 -80.9% ------- BLUE .061 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.51 -.11 23.62 -12.7% Bearish RED -.044 .062 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190731 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 153 NEWLOWS 38 MAXCP 21 MINCP 32 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 108 Day Traders distinctly bearish. FASTUP 53 FASTDOWN 87 CPCROSSA 43 CPCROSSD 185 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 24 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 110 LOWACCUM 135 REDSELL 96 AUGSELS7 15 TRAPDOOR 25 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/31/19 Bullish = 34 Bearish = 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 BONDFUND .961 .951 .941 .951 .961 .941 GOLD .86 .9 .92 .92 .92 .92 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .846 .846 .923 SOLAR .764 .823 .823 .823 .764 .764 REGBANKS .74 .851 .814 .888 .666 .777 INDEXES .736 .709 .698 .698 .682 .758 DOWJONES .733 .766 .833 .833 .833 .9 NIFTY .732 .767 .785 .803 .803 .857 COMPUTER .714 .714 .666 .666 .619 .666 SP-100 .714 .769 .791 .791 .747 .78 SEMI .712 .777 .74 .731 .74 .768 INSURANC .71 .815 .842 .842 .868 .868 HACKERS .7 .8 .8 .8 .75 .8 JETS .7 .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 TRANSP .7 .75 .8 .85 .85 .85 FINANCE .697 .767 .779 .79 .732 .848 NASD-100 .693 .755 .765 .755 .744 .775 SP500 .673 .739 .739 .747 .737 .758 FIDSTKS .661 .732 .726 .754 .759 .786 HOMEBLDG .647 .705 .588 .647 .647 .588 RUS-1000 .644 .696 .679 .687 .673 .708 AUTO .641 .615 .692 .717 .717 .794 ELECTRON .641 .724 .673 .66 .673 .685 GAMING .608 .652 .652 .652 .521 .565 MILITARY .607 .607 .607 .607 .642 .714 SOFTWARE .606 .622 .622 .622 .59 .672 UTILITY .575 .625 .65 .675 .65 .65 GUNS .562 .562 .562 .562 .562 .687 INFRA .555 .638 .694 .694 .638 .777 GREEN .545 .545 .5 .545 .5 .545 HOSPITAL .545 .5 .5 .5 .454 .454 INDMATER .513 .605 .526 .578 .578 .644 REIT .506 .575 .527 .479 .458 .506 N=34 ============================================================================================ RETAIL .48 .461 .519 .519 .5 .538 CHEM .479 .604 .5 .583 .562 .687 ETFS .438 .578 .719 .736 .719 .789 BEVERAGE .411 .588 .588 .529 .47 .47 BIOTECH .405 .451 .396 .419 .387 .448 COMODITY .39 .56 .585 .56 .609 .658 OILGAS .361 .326 .297 .319 .333 .39 FOOD .351 .481 .574 .537 .611 .629 CHINA .333 .333 .385 .421 .368 .421 EDU .333 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 COAL .166 .333 0 .166 0 0 N=11
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7/30/2019 Stick with the Buy B10 and hold all recommended long positions.
The NYSE A/D Line is uptrending. Flat-top "BOX" patterns usually bring
upside breakouts until Peerless gives a Sell. Tops usually do not come
at this time of year until late August or September. Going just by history
since 1967, we see that the DJI rises 75% of the time over the next month
and averages a gain of +2.1%. And if the FED should actually lower
the overnight inter-bank lending rate by 1/4% tomorrow, history shows us
three very bullish aftermaths when the market is already making
new highs. These occurred in 1915, 1927 and 1954. Are their lessons still
relevant. As a historian, I would say "Yes".
Charts 7/30/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/30/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-30/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-30/BEARISH.htmWhat about the FED?
A Rate Cut Tomorrow should be bullish.
But no Rate Cut should help all our positions,
except Gold and NUGT. With the Federal
Funds rate now 2.4%, a drop by 1/4% would
be nothing more than a re-allignment with
the de facto, market set 10-year and 3-month rates.
The stock market will probably be much relieved when
all uncertainty created by these intermittent FOMC
meetings is over until September, once again. .
We may be on the cusp of seeing the FED make monetary history. I doubt if investors
appreciate how bullish market history suggests a rate cut now would be with the
DJI so close to making a new all-time high. Most of the time, and certainly after
1956, the FED has avoided moving rates lower in a rising market once prices
get back to their old highs, either because it fears Inflation, excessive Stock Speculation
or because it wants to have monetary ammunition available, i.e. rate cuts and
increased Fed buying of government securities from big banks, in case there is a steep
stock market sell-off or an economic slow-down. A good introductory history is seen at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbslreview/pages/1965-1969/62472_1965-1969.pdf
I have found that one really has to go back to 1915, 1927 and 1953-1953 to find
examples of the FED cutting rates in a strong bull market close to its highs. It is much
more normal to see the FED raising rates, except that it has few excuses because Inflation
(apart from apartment rents, health care and prescribed drugs) is so low and the Dollar is
so strong. For the FED not to raise rates now would put even more pressure on countries
overseas that have have big debts in Dollars to US banks. That would increase the odds
of a global recession, pushed along by trade wars.
But note that in our strange world, now, a Fed decision NOT to raise rates would
also help American bonds, blue chips and ETFs in the eyes of overseas investors.
In particular, it would almost certainly further weaken the falling Pound even more.
"Hot" funds would leave the "City" in London and the new Conservative Government
will have to revert to raising their interest rates, thereby weakening their economy
and their ability to import from America instead of Europe, just to give an example.
So, either way, our Buy B10 ought to prove correct for many of the blue chip banks
represented by FAS.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/30/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 271.91 -.22 272.61 -26.4% Bullish BLUE .328 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 347.46 7.25 361.43 -362.2% ------- BLUE .052 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 300.72 -.74 301.44 11.5% Bullish BLUE .261 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 193.78 -.84 195.15 -.3% Bullish BLUE .302 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 362.01 2.38 361.47 78.3% Bullish BLUE .199 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.84 1.69 157.26 100.6% Bullish BLUE .099 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 80.76 -.18 81.41 60.6% Bullish BLUE .284 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 190.72 -1.3 200.88 172.7% Bullish BLUE .139 .351 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 181.77 -3.84 187.1 -17.1% Bullish BLUE .196 .207 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.36 .95 105.68 46.1% ------- BLUE-.012 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.98 .45 134.37 48.2% ------- BLUE .099 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.3 .57 14.65 -98.1% ------- BLUE .018 -.109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.62 -.1 23.57 -25.4% ------- RED -.087 .061 Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190730 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 222 Bullish NEWLOWS 12 MAXCP 45 MINCP 11 TTTNH 20 TTTNL 42 FASTUP 60 FASTDOWN 66 CPCROSSA 177 CPCROSSD 38 BIGVOLUP 9 BIGVODN 14 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 23 HIUPPCT 15 LOWACCUM 124 REDSELL 96 AUGSELS7 18 TRAPDOOR 23 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/30/19 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 BONDFUND .951 .941 .951 .961 .941 .932 GOLD .9 .92 .92 .92 .92 .92 REGBANKS .851 .814 .888 .666 .74 .592 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .764 .764 .764 INSURANC .815 .842 .842 .868 .868 .815 HACKERS .8 .8 .8 .75 .8 .75 DOWJONES .793 .862 .862 .862 .896 .862 SEMI .777 .74 .731 .74 .768 .712 NIFTY .771 .789 .807 .807 .859 .859 DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .846 .923 .846 SP-100 .769 .791 .791 .747 .78 .791 FINANCE .767 .779 .79 .732 .837 .697 NASD-100 .755 .765 .755 .744 .775 .765 TRANSP .75 .8 .85 .85 .85 .85 SP500 .739 .739 .747 .737 .756 .741 FIDSTKS .733 .728 .755 .76 .788 .771 ELECTRON .724 .673 .66 .673 .685 .628 COMPUTER .714 .666 .666 .619 .666 .666 INDEXES .709 .698 .698 .682 .747 .72 HOMEBLDG .705 .588 .647 .647 .588 .529 JETS .7 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 RUS-1000 .696 .679 .687 .673 .704 .672 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GAMING .652 .652 .652 .521 .565 .434 INFRA .638 .694 .694 .638 .75 .666 UTILITY .625 .65 .675 .65 .65 .675 SOFTWARE .622 .622 .622 .59 .672 .606 AUTO .615 .692 .717 .717 .769 .717 MILITARY .607 .607 .607 .642 .714 .714 INDMATER .605 .526 .578 .578 .631 .605 CHEM .604 .5 .583 .562 .687 .583 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .529 .47 .47 .47 ETFS .578 .719 .736 .719 .789 .807 REIT .575 .527 .479 .458 .506 .486 GUNS .562 .562 .562 .562 .687 .625 COMODITY .56 .585 .56 .609 .658 .682 GREEN .545 .5 .545 .5 .545 .454 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOSPITAL .5 .5 .5 .454 .454 .454 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .481 .574 .537 .611 .629 .629 RETAIL .461 .519 .519 .5 .538 .5 BIOTECH .451 .396 .419 .387 .448 .413 CHINA .333 .385 .421 .368 .421 .403 COAL .333 0 .166 0 0 0 OILGAS .326 .297 .319 .333 .375 .347====================================================================
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7/29/2019 Stick with the Buy B10 and hold all recommended long positions.
The market seems to be somewhat nervous about the FOMC's lowering of
the Federal Funds' Borrowing Rate. But so long as the NYSE A/D Line is
in a rising trend, it's hard to see much of a decline ahead even if they fail to
lower rates, despite the markedly lower real (not pegged) 10-year and 3-month
rates now. Gold did turn up today. So, by my counsel, we are still long
GLD and NUGT. I see no reason to get out of QQQ, MSFT, HIG or FAS.
It's true that Boeing may weigh down the DJI and it's also true that it's hard
to see where among the DJI-30, the next big move up is going to come from.
But somehow, the DJI-30 always finds a way, doesn't it?
Charts 7/29/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/29/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-29/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-29/BEARISH.htmSignificance of "Box" Pattern in DJI
The DJI's flat-top "BOX" pattern is piggy-backed on top of a breakout
Buy B10. What is the significance of this? I've mentioned before in connection
with weekly charts that such tight trading ranges after an upside breakout mainly serve
to build up more upside pressure when the higher, minor box pattern is finally
broken above. (See the weekly DJI chart below. See the extra hesitation in
the DJI four years ago and how quickly the market rose when a second new
high was made.)
Tonight, I simply looked for tightly formed box patterns made at a DJI new
yearly high in the daily charts. What I found was that (1) as long as the NYSE A/D Line
is rising, like now, (2) as long as Peerless does not produce a new Sell, and (3) as long
as the current "BOX" pattern does not morph into a head/shoulders formation,
we should see either a powerful upside breakout this coming month or a
minor decline to the rising 65-dma at most and then another very good rally.
Bullish Outcomes from "BOX" pattern: 1928, 1929, 1954, 1995Bearish Outcome when Peerless gives a Sell or the Box Pattern morphs
into a head/shoulders and the A/D Line uptrend is broken:
1961-1962, 1963, 1984-1985. 2013.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/29/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 272.13 .27 273.35 8.8% Bullish BLUE .313 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 340.21 -4.79 373.07 -461% Bearish RED .009 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 301.46 -.55 300.03 59.3% Bullish RED .254 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 194.62 -.67 193.79 53.9% Bullish RED .31 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 359.63 -1.74 356.38 98.9% Bullish RED .175 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.15 -1.05 154.7 79.3% ------- RED .085 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 80.94 -1.28 79.78 211.4% Bullish RED .304 .11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 192.02 1.47 184.1 388.7% Bullish BLUE .092 .283 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 185.61 -.24 182.4 160.5% Bullish RED .216 .206 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.41 .09 105.39 13.8% ------- RED .026 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.53 .89 133.69 3% ------- BLUE .102 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.73 -.45 14.58 -229.2% Bearish RED -.002 -.169 (weak) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.72 .08 23.74 38.1% Bearish BLUE -.126 .067 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190729 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 207 NEWLOWS 35 MAXCP 25 MINCP 55 Professionals are net bearish. TTTNH 16 TTTNL 102 Day Traders are net bearish. FASTUP 47 FASTDOWN 85 CPCROSSA 61 CPCROSSD 94 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 6 HIGHIP21 12 HIUPPCT 15 LOWACCUM 122 REDSELL 95 AUGSELS7 17 TRAPDOOR 22 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/29/19 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 .857 BONDFUND .941 .951 .961 .941 .941 .932 GOLD .92 .92 .92 .92 .92 .94 DOWJONES .862 .862 .862 .896 .862 .862 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .923 .846 .846 INSURANC .842 .842 .868 .868 .815 .868 SOLAR .823 .823 .764 .764 .764 .823 REGBANKS .814 .888 .666 .74 .592 .592 HACKERS .8 .8 .75 .8 .75 .8 TRANSP .8 .85 .85 .85 .85 .85 SP-100 .791 .791 .747 .78 .791 .736 NIFTY .789 .807 .807 .859 .859 .824 FINANCE .779 .79 .732 .837 .697 .581 NASD-100 .765 .755 .744 .775 .765 .755 SEMI .74 .731 .74 .768 .712 .685 SP500 .739 .747 .737 .756 .741 .704 FIDSTKS .728 .755 .76 .788 .766 .728 ETFS .719 .736 .719 .789 .789 .684 JETS .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 INDEXES .698 .698 .682 .747 .715 .672 INFRA .694 .694 .638 .75 .666 .583 AUTO .692 .717 .717 .769 .717 .564 RUS-1000 .679 .687 .673 .704 .673 .634 ELECTRON .673 .66 .673 .685 .628 .602 COMPUTER .666 .666 .619 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GAMING .652 .652 .521 .565 .434 .434 UTILITY .65 .675 .65 .65 .675 .675 SOFTWARE .622 .622 .59 .672 .606 .622 MILITARY .607 .607 .642 .714 .714 .678 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .47 .47 .47 .411 HOMEBLDG .588 .647 .647 .588 .529 .647 COMODITY .585 .56 .609 .658 .682 .609 FOOD .574 .537 .611 .629 .629 .574 GUNS .562 .562 .562 .687 .625 .625 REIT .527 .479 .458 .506 .5 .363 INDMATER .526 .578 .578 .631 .605 .565 RETAIL .519 .519 .5 .538 .5 .5 =========================================================================================== CHEM .5 .583 .562 .687 .562 .416 GREEN .5 .545 .5 .545 .454 .409 HOSPITAL .5 .5 .454 .454 .454 .409 =========================================================================================== BIOTECH .398 .421 .389 .449 .421 .421 CHINA .385 .421 .368 .421 .403 .315 OILGAS .297 .319 .333 .375 .34 .326 COAL 0 .166 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
7/26/2019 The DJI would have closed 200 points higher if Boeing's 32 point, one-week sell-off,
had not weighed it down. In effect, the DJI is now disguising the strength shown
elsewhere. As long as the NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend, our historical studies
tell us from 1976 and 2002 to trust the rising ADL. And of course, if the FED does come
through and lower interest rates as the DJI is making a new all-time high, we could have a
repeat of what happened in the Summer of 1927: namely, a surge in stock speculation
that lasted two more years. Wouldn't that be something!?
Expect higher prices, possibly much high prices. The Buy B10 is reliably bullish.
Under Trump, Buy B10s have worked out very well. As long as the economy
provides so many jobs, history suggests his re-election is highly probable. Wall Street
knows this very well. They fully appreciate how much Trump has benefitted them.
And we should expect them now to do all they can to keep the bull market alive.
Signals DJI Pct.Gain Maximum Paper Loss
--------------------------------------------------------------------
20170125 B10 20068.51 .027 none 0
20170602 B10 21206.29 .230 none 0
20170727 B10 21796.55 .197 21674.51 -.0060 8/18
20171128 B10 23836.41 .094 none 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg.= +13.7% -0.15
Charts 7/26/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/26/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-26/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-26/BEARISH.htmThe general market, as measured by the major ETFs like SPY,
QQQ and the NASDAQ are making Summer new highs. The
DJI usually does not end its Summer rally until late August or
September. So, the DJI could easily rally another month. And
since the QQQ most often tops out after the DJI, the odds of
another month's rally are excellent. Certainly, that is what
the rising number of new highs and flat-top breakouts we are
now seeing among our Bullish MAXCPs.
The Dollar made another new high on Friday. This works against
our GLD and NUGT long positions. Since GLD has just broken its
price uptrend, I have to suggest taking profits in NUGT and
GLD if they do not rally Monday. But the Dollar's strengh has been a big booster
for financials and our position in FAS. FAS is the 3x-times leveraged Financials'
ETF. It is most heavily invested in JPMorgan and the major credit
card companies as well as Berkshire Hathaway. As I see it, political
talk of America's consumer debt problem will only become a problem
when debtors fail en masse to make their monthly payments to their
banks and credit card companies. Some weakness is becoming apparent in
the area of car loans now, but all the other debt just means bigger and more
profits for the stocks represented by FAS. If anything, the new
tariffs will increase what consumers have to borrow on their
cards and that is bullish for Visa, Master Card... and FAS. All the
while, the strong Dollar lures foreign capital investments into US
bonds, blue chips and the major market ETFs.
Why Buy FAS? FAS and the DJI have been found to be closely linked over time,
just as the Fidelity Sector Fund for Financials was the single Fidelity select fund
most profitably traded using Peerless in the 1980s and 1990s.
My history of what fundamentally has moved stocks the most since 1886
clearly shows that Wall Street - as represented by the big banks and
insurance companies and signified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average - has
been the premier powerhouse of the Economy. The national economy depend
upon Wall Street. That makes it more powerful than the White House and
Congress in many ways. Factoring in campaign contributions and we begin
to see how powerful Wall Street is. Given this, it behooves us as traders
using Peerless Stock Market Timing to appreciate just how close a connection there
is between the Peerless Buys and Sells, on the one hand, and FAS, representing
Wall Street, on the other hand.
FAS began trading at the end of the 2008 bear market. Buying it when Peerless
gives a Buy signal is highly recommended. But selling it when Peerless gives a Sell
should be seen as a necessary precaution. See how fast it fell in 2008!
Yearly Gains Using Peerless Buys and Sells on FAS:
Long Positions Only: 2009-2018
1) Positions taken at opening day after Peerless Buy signal.
2) It is assumed $10,000 is invested and proceeds are kept
fully invested for year year, while Peerless is on a Buy.
3) Commissions of $40 per trade are subtracted from gains.
Year Percent Gain Biggest Paper Loss
-------- ------------- --------------------
2009 608.1% 18.3%
2010 231.9% 31.5%
2011 76.7% 23.1%
2012 124.5% 7.1%
2013 106.5% 9.8%
2014 114.0% 1.9%
2015 24.6% 10.6%
2016 106.2% 19.7%
2017 42.8% 13.5%
2018 73.0% 15.8%
(Details will be presented in Peerless Stock Market Timing,
1929-2019: Charts, Signals and Profitable Uses to be
released very soon. Results shown here taken from TigerSoft
charts of FAS with Peerless signals super-imposed...)
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/26/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 271.86 .47 271.65 7.5% Bullish BLUE .308 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 345 -3.09 373.42 -441.3% Bearish RED -.014 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 302.01 2.01 297.9 80.9% Bullish BLUE .253 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 195.29 1.99 192.53 110.8% Bullish BLUE .297 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 361.37 3.5 352.55 120.9% Bullish BLUE .265 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.2 1.84 153.68 109.1% Bullish BLUE .154 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 82.22 2.32 77.55 316.4% Bullish BLUE .356 .157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 190.55 -.14 177.35 624.9% Bullish RED .078 .198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 185.85 3.28 179.72 348.9% Bullish BLUE .183 .239 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.32 1.12 105.12 20.9% ------- BLUE .043 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.64 .22 134.45 -31% ------- RED .097 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.18 0 14.39 41.7% Bearish ---- .008 -.142 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.64 .02 23.54 -4.2% Bearish RED -.16 .059 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190726 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 328 Bullish NEWLOWS 31 MAXCP 46 MINCP 42 TTTNH 33 TTTNL 73 FASTUP 50 FASTDOWN 71 CPCROSSA 182 CPCROSSD 36 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 123 REDSELL 99 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 22 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/26/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 .857 .857 BONDFUND .951 .961 .941 .941 .941 .941 GOLD .921 .921 .921 .921 .921 .941 REGBANKS .892 .678 .75 .607 .571 .642 DOWJONES .862 .862 .896 .862 .862 .827 TRANSP .85 .85 .85 .85 .8 .75 DJI-13 .846 .846 .923 .846 .846 .769 INSURANC .842 .868 .868 .815 .868 .868 NIFTY .807 .807 .859 .859 .824 .807 HACKERS .8 .75 .8 .75 .8 .8 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 FINANCE .795 .738 .84 .704 .59 .636 SP-100 .791 .747 .78 .791 .736 .681 SOLAR .777 .722 .722 .722 .777 .722 FIDSTKS .755 .76 .788 .766 .728 .733 NASD-100 .755 .744 .775 .765 .755 .755 SP500 .747 .737 .755 .741 .702 .704 ETFS .736 .719 .789 .789 .649 .736 SEMI .729 .738 .765 .711 .684 .63 AUTO .717 .717 .769 .717 .564 .589 INDEXES .698 .682 .747 .715 .672 .704 INFRA .694 .638 .75 .666 .583 .611 RUS-1000 .683 .67 .701 .671 .629 .629 UTILITY .675 .65 .65 .675 .675 .75 COMPUTER .666 .619 .666 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 ELECTRON .656 .668 .681 .624 .598 .547 GAMING .652 .521 .565 .434 .434 .434 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .588 .529 .588 .647 SOFTWARE .622 .59 .672 .606 .622 .639 MILITARY .607 .642 .714 .714 .678 .642 CHEM .576 .557 .673 .557 .423 .442 INDMATER .575 .575 .625 .6 .537 .575 GUNS .562 .562 .687 .625 .625 .625 COMODITY .56 .609 .658 .682 .609 .682 FOOD .547 .622 .641 .641 .584 .66 GREEN .545 .5 .545 .454 .409 .409 BEVERAGE .529 .47 .47 .47 .411 .529 RETAIL .509 .49 .528 .49 .49 .509 N=39 ============================================================================================= HOSPITAL .478 .478 .478 .478 .478 .565 REIT .472 .452 .5 .493 .364 .351 BIOTECH .425 .398 .456 .428 .425 .425 CHINA .421 .368 .421 .403 .28 .35 OILGAS .319 .333 .375 .34 .319 .305 COAL .166 0 0 0 0 0 N=6
====================================================================
7/25/2019 Minor moves back and forth within the DJI's "box" pattern are not
considered significant. Usually, these patterns bring upside breakouts.
Of course, the FED must still not disappoint in next week's FOMC
meeting. Keep in mind that nearly all of the Buy B10s are profitable
when finally reversed. Stay long DIA, QQQ, FAS, MSFT, HIG,
NUGT and GLD. Usually Peerless does not give a Sell signal
in the Summer until late August or September.
Today, let's look a little closer at one of our best technical tools, one that warrants
more discussion on a quiet day, like Friday would seem to be.
Tiger Day Traders' Tool - No Sell Yet.
Day traders who thrive must pay close attention to the news and to the
market's technicals. So, their bullishness or bearishness is an important
clue for us. TigerSoft has it own cumulative measure of how
bullish or bearish this group is. We call it the Tiger Day Traders' Tool,
Each day the maximum intra-day decline from the opening to the day's
low is subtracted from the distance from the opening to the day's high
and added to a running total. So, if a stock opened at 42 and hit a high
of 43 afterwards and a low of 40 also after the opening, a -1 would
be added to the running sum. Right now, the Day Traders' Tool for
DIA, SPY and QQQ are flat and have been so for several months.
Day traders as a whole are in an undecided mood about the market.
What we have to watch out for is a breakout or breakdown from the horizontal
action. An upside breakout would be bullish, but a breakdown would likely be
quite bearish. See below how the QQQ Day Traders' Tool breakdowns
correctly warned in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014-2015 and 2018 of bigger
declines. Only in early 2000 was this DTT breakdown significantly premature.
And in that case, the day traders who stuck with the shorting of openings were
soon richly rewarded, as the declines after the opening were much deeper than
miniscule early rallies.
QQQ - 2000
QQQ - 2007
QQQ - 2008
QQQ - 2015-2016
QQQ - 2018
Charts 7/25/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/25/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-25/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-25/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/25/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 271.39 -1.22 271.45 -16.2% Bullish RED .234 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.09 -13.34 377.36 -176.3% Bearish RED -.007 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 300 -1.44 297.17 19.6% Bullish RED .178 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 193.3 -1.85 191.01 22.8% Bullish RED .237 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.87 -3.6 352.76 56.4% Bullish RED .188 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.36 -1.9 153.82 21% Bullish RED .08 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.9 -1.51 77.21 60.8% Bullish RED .271 .123 (bullish) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 190.69 -10.19 167.54 612.9% Bullish RED .125 .227 (bulllish) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 182.57 -4.53 173.22 176.9% Bullish RED .143 .251 (bullish) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.2 -1.48 104.88 -106.6% ------- RED -.017 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.42 -.95 134.47 -113.6% ------- RED .119 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.18 -.47 14.06 104.8% Bearish RED -.001 -.137 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.62 .05 23.66 -57% ------- RED -.125 .056 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190725 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 127 NEWLOWS 37 MAXCP 20 MINCP 50 Bearish TTTNH 15 TTTNL 96 FASTUP 43 FASTDOWN 88 CPCROSSA 41 CPCROSSD 186 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 17 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 129 REDSELL 103 AUGSELS7 21 TRAPDOOR 19 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/25/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 .857 .714 .857 BONDFUND .961 .941 .941 .941 .941 .941 GOLD .921 .921 .921 .921 .941 .921 INSURANC .868 .868 .815 .868 .868 .894 DOWJONES .862 .896 .862 .862 .827 .827 TRANSP .85 .85 .85 .8 .75 .6 DJI-13 .846 .923 .846 .846 .769 .769 NIFTY .807 .859 .859 .824 .807 .824 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 FIDSTKS .76 .788 .766 .728 .733 .733 HACKERS .75 .8 .75 .8 .8 .8 SP-100 .747 .78 .791 .736 .681 .703 NASD-100 .744 .775 .765 .755 .755 .816 FINANCE .738 .84 .704 .59 .625 .59 SEMI .738 .765 .711 .684 .639 .639 SP500 .737 .755 .741 .702 .7 .708 SOLAR .722 .722 .722 .777 .722 .722 ETFS .719 .789 .789 .649 .684 .771 AUTO .717 .769 .717 .564 .589 .564 INDEXES .682 .747 .715 .672 .704 .709 REGBANKS .678 .75 .607 .571 .642 .535 RUS-1000 .67 .701 .67 .63 .629 .64 ELECTRON .668 .681 .624 .598 .554 .56 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 UTILITY .65 .65 .675 .675 .75 .775 HOMEBLDG .647 .588 .529 .588 .588 .764 MILITARY .642 .714 .714 .678 .642 .642 INFRA .638 .75 .666 .583 .611 .555 FOOD .622 .641 .641 .584 .66 .547 COMPUTER .619 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 COMODITY .609 .658 .682 .609 .682 .585 SOFTWARE .59 .672 .606 .622 .639 .655 INDMATER .575 .625 .6 .537 .562 .512 GUNS .562 .687 .625 .625 .625 .625 CHEM .557 .673 .557 .423 .461 .442 GAMING .521 .565 .434 .434 .434 .434 N=36 ============================================================================================ GREEN .5 .545 .454 .409 .409 .5 ============================================================================================ RETAIL .49 .528 .49 .49 .509 .49 BEVERAGE .47 .47 .47 .411 .529 .588 REIT .452 .5 .493 .364 .358 .513 HOSPITAL .434 .478 .478 .478 .565 .521 BIOTECH .395 .456 .428 .425 .425 .456 CHINA .368 .421 .403 .28 .35 .315 OILGAS .333 .375 .34 .319 .298 .312 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=8
=====================================================================
7/24/2019 Stick with the Buy B10. The NYSE A/D Line, QQQ and NASDAQ
made new highs. Big jumps were made by many mid-caps and stocks
in the Russell-2000. The DJI's IP21(Accumulation Index) and V-Indicator
have turned positive, thus making it less likely that the next rally to the
upper band will bring a Sell S12 or a Sell S9-v.
For now hold long:
DIA 272.61-0.74 (-0.27%) overnight +0.37
MSFT 140.72+1.43 (+1.03%) overnight +0.28
QQQ 195.15+1.36 (+0.70%) overnight -0.02
FAS 81.41+1.63 (+2.04%)
NUGT 35.61+0.96 (+2.77%) overnight -.08
GLD 134.37+0.68 (+0.51%) overnight +.18
HIG 57.53+0.63 (+1.11%)
New Highs: NASDAQ, QQQ , FAS, TECL
Usually breakouts into all-time high territory are followed by
additional rises in prices. That we now see this for the NASDAQ,
QQQ, FAS and TECL is almost certainly bullish for general
market. SPY did make a marginal new high today, too.
Seasonal Bullishness
The general seasonal bullishness now from late July until September
can be seen in the history of Peerless Sells that occurred in past years
before a Presidential Election from 1931...1935...1939 to 2015 and also
how the market behaved in 1915...1919...1923...1927 before Peerless
signals appeared. There have been 25 such past years. Only in 8 of the
25 cases did the DJI reach a peak in the Summer before August 24th,
one month from now: 1919, 1923, 1931, 1955, 1959, 1983, 2007 and
2011. (Two of these 8 cases occurred in falling markets, not bull
markets like now.)
DJI History in Summers: 1915, 1919, 1923-2015
1915: DJI rose steadily from 70 (Jul 12) to 99 at end of
year with only brief DJI dips to rising 21-dma. Low interest
rates and arms-building for European combatants in WW!.
1919: DJI fell 12% from 7/15 DJI peak in post-war boom.
occurring Decline seems to have taken place as a result of
uncertainties created by anarchist bombings in June. Major
peak was made on 11/3. Sharply higher interest rates and
Red Scare started 2-year long bear market.
1923: Market fell because of Teapot Dome scandal and higher
interest rates. Peak in downtrend made on 8/29.
1927: DJI rose from 166 on 6/27 to 198.90 as FED lowered
interest rates.
Peerless Signals: 1931-2015
(in years before Presidential Election Year)
Gain Paper Loss and Final Top
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19310819 S9 141.7 .299
(On going bear market)
19350909 S2 132.5 .033
19390913 S9 154.1 .049
19430920 S2 141.8 .071
19471022 S4 184.4 .103
19510917 S4 275.1 .053
19550727 S9 468.5 .042
^^^^
19550901 S7 469.6 .061 487.5 -.0381 9/23
19590803 S9 678.1 .06
(On going bear market)
1963 - steadily rising DJI
19670918 S2 938.74 .084
19710816 S12 888.95 .083 920.93 -.0359 9/7
19750829 S9 835.34 .061 838.31 -.0035 9/4
19790921 S9 893.94 .096
19830726 S9 1243.69 .065
^^^^
19870826 S4 2701.85 .052
19871001 S9 2639.2 .341
19910905 S1 3008.50 .041
1995 take off - no Sells
19990817 S9 11117.07 .099 11326.0 -.0187 8/25
2003 take off - no Sells
20070723 S9 13943.42 .047
^^^^
20110721 S9 12724.41 .098
^^^^
20150824 S13 15871.35 .013 16643.0 -.0486 8/28
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 7/24/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/24/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-24/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-24/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/24/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 272.61 -.74 272.27 6.1% Bullish BLUE .08 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 361.43 -11.64 361.11 -109.1% ------- RED .033 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 301.44 1.41 298.83 62% Bullish BLUE .107 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 195.15 1.36 192.42 76.7% Bullish BLUE .196 .017 jump --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 361.47 5.09 353.86 123.6% Bullish BLUE .196 -.019 jump --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.26 2.56 154.71 101.5% Bullish BLUE .077 -.038 jump --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 81.41 1.63 78.94 255.8% Bullish BLUE .252 .161 (bullish) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 200.88 16.78 168.66 1152.9% Bullish BLUE .12 .378 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 187.1 4.7 176.21 419.8% Bullish BLUE .081 .334 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.68 .29 106.45 4.7% ------- BLUE .005 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.37 .68 136.48 -7.8% Bullish RED .119 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.65 .07 13.88 243.4% Bearish BLUE .041 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.57 -.17 23.89 -29.5% ------- RED -.12 .065Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190724 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 353 Bullish NEWLOWS 21 MAXCP 69 MINCP 15 TTTNH 52 TTTNL 67 FASTUP 71 FASTDOWN 75 CPCROSSA 299 CPCROSSD 45 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 16 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 19 LOWACCUM 133 REDSELL 105 AUGSELS7 18 TRAPDOOR 11 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/24/19 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 .857 .714 .714 .714 BONDFUND .941 .941 .941 .941 .951 .951 DJI-13 .923 .846 .846 .769 .769 .769 GOLD .921 .921 .921 .941 .921 .901 DOWJONES .896 .862 .862 .827 .827 .827 INSURANC .868 .815 .868 .868 .894 .868 NIFTY .859 .859 .824 .807 .824 .824 TRANSP .85 .85 .8 .75 .6 .6 FINANCE .84 .704 .59 .625 .579 .522 HACKERS .8 .75 .8 .8 .8 .75 JETS .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 .8 ETFS .789 .789 .649 .684 .736 .719 FIDSTKS .788 .766 .728 .733 .733 .711 SP-100 .78 .791 .736 .681 .692 .626 NASD-100 .775 .765 .755 .755 .816 .775 AUTO .769 .717 .564 .589 .538 .589 SEMI .765 .711 .684 .639 .639 .585 SP500 .755 .741 .702 .7 .702 .694 INFRA .75 .666 .583 .611 .555 .666 REGBANKS .75 .607 .571 .642 .535 .428 INDEXES .747 .715 .672 .704 .709 .698 SOLAR .722 .722 .777 .722 .722 .777 MILITARY .714 .714 .678 .642 .642 .607 RUS-1000 .701 .67 .629 .63 .636 .62 GUNS .687 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 ELECTRON .685 .628 .602 .557 .564 .532 CHEM .673 .557 .423 .461 .461 .442 SOFTWARE .672 .606 .622 .639 .655 .655 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 COMODITY .658 .682 .609 .682 .56 .658 UTILITY .65 .675 .675 .75 .775 .775 FOOD .641 .641 .584 .66 .528 .66 INDMATER .625 .6 .537 .562 .512 .487 HOMEBLDG .588 .529 .588 .588 .705 .764 GAMING .565 .434 .434 .434 .434 .521 GREEN .545 .454 .409 .409 .5 .545 RETAIL .528 .49 .49 .509 .49 .49 ============================================================================================ REIT .5 .493 .364 .358 .506 .493 ============================================================================================ BEVERAGE .47 .47 .411 .529 .588 .529 BIOTECH .455 .43 .428 .428 .453 .433 HOSPITAL .434 .478 .478 .565 .521 .565 CHINA .421 .403 .28 .35 .28 .28 OILGAS .375 .34 .319 .298 .305 .298 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
=========================================================================
7/23/2019 Stick with the Buy B10 for now. The NYSE A/D Line continues to rise. It remains
stronger than the DJI. It tells us NYSE stocks generally will probably keep rising
because of low interest rates. But it may be constructive now if the DJI does pull back
here, as the Futures this morning suggest. That is because a 270 point rally from here
by the DJI from here right away could bring a Sell S12 (if the Accumulation Index-IP21)
stays negative or bring a Sell S9-V (if the NYSE Up volume remains weak and the
V-I stays negative). But don't assume a Sell yet. With the DJI near an all-time high,
we should respect the market's bullish potential.
Keep in mind that seasonality remains quite bullish, first because it is important for
Republicans to keep the rally going and they call most of the shots now in the
Fed as well as in the Administration and, secondly, because we see a bullish seasonal
pattern after August 23rd for the DJI generally since 1965. From 1965-2018, the DJI
rose 65% of the time in the two weeks following August 23rd and 60.4% of the time
both over the next month and two months, when the DJI avereraged gain of +1.4%
and +2.3%, respectively.
For now hold long:
DIA 273.35+1.70 (+0.63%) overnight -0.43
MSFT 139.29+0.86 (+0.62%) overnight -0.39
QQQ 193.79+1.26 (+0.65%) overnight -0.91
FAS 79.78+2.23 (+2.88%)
NUGT 34.65-1.24 (-3.45%) overnight +0.47
GLD 133.69-0.76 (-0.57%) overnight +0.74
HIG 56.90-0.14 (-0.25%)
Traders should consider buying SNPS and XLNX for quick trades. These are the
highest Tiger Power-ranked stocks in our NIFTY-High-Volume-Techs and the QQQ.
Note that 86% of the "NIFTY" stocks are above the 65-dma, placing them near the
top of Table 3's ranking.
Charts 7/23/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/23/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-23/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-23/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/23/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 273.35 1.7 272.28 -1.3% Bullish BLUE .028 ---- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.07 -.35 369.52 139.9% Bullish RED .099 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 300.03 2.13 297.74 5.4% ------- BLUE .033 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 193.79 1.26 192.2 16.6% ------- BLUE .125 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 356.38 3.83 352.73 13% ------- BLUE .088 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.7 1.02 154.13 -17.5% Bearish BLUE -.041 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.78 2.23 77.41 53.8% Bullish BLUE .14 .078 positive --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 184.1 6.75 161.27 723.9% Bullish BLUE .041 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 182.4 2.68 172.26 253.7% ------- RED .024 .168 NH --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.39 .27 105.58 -3.8% ------- ---- -.087 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.69 -.76 134.58 48% Bullish RED .182 .049 positive --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.58 .19 13.96 63.7% Bearish BLUE .02 -.11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 26.46 .12 26.3 20.9% Bearish ---- .126 .134 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190723 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 165 Bullish NEWLOWS 22 MAXCP 28 MINCP 21 TTTNH 28 TTTNL 67 FASTUP 41 FASTDOWN 112 CPCROSSA 113 CPCROSSD 57 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 19 LOWACCUM 138 REDSELL 115 AUGSELS7 30 TRAPDOOR 20 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/23/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 ******** BONDFUND .941 .941 .941 .951 .951 .961 GOLD .921 .921 .941 .921 .901 .882 **** DOWJONES .862 .862 .827 .827 .827 .896 ******** NIFTY .859 .824 .807 .824 .807 .807 ----- TRANSP .85 .8 .75 .6 .55 .9 DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .769 .769 .846 INSURANC .815 .868 .868 .894 .868 .894 JETS .8 .8 .7 .8 .8 .8 SP-100 .791 .736 .681 .692 .615 .758 ETFS .789 .649 .684 .736 .719 .736 FIDSTKS .766 .728 .733 .733 .695 .755 NASD-100 .765 .755 .755 .816 .765 .816 SOLAR .764 .823 .764 .764 .823 .705 HACKERS .75 .8 .8 .8 .75 .7 SP500 .742 .701 .701 .703 .678 .771 INDEXES .718 .675 .708 .713 .702 .74 AUTO .717 .564 .589 .538 .564 .615 MILITARY .714 .678 .642 .642 .607 .714 FINANCE .704 .59 .625 .579 .534 .579 SEMI .702 .684 .639 .639 .576 .558 COMODITY .682 .609 .682 .56 .658 .707 UTILITY .675 .675 .75 .775 .775 .775 RUS-1000 .67 .629 .629 .636 .612 .686 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 INFRA .666 .583 .611 .555 .666 .722 FOOD .629 .574 .648 .518 .648 .685 GUNS .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 ELECTRON .617 .598 .554 .56 .515 .541 REGBANKS .607 .571 .642 .535 .428 .464 SOFTWARE .606 .622 .639 .655 .639 .622 INDMATER .6 .537 .562 .512 .475 .6 CHEM .557 .423 .461 .461 .461 .538 HOMEBLDG .529 .588 .588 .705 .764 .882 ==================================================================================================== RETAIL .49 .49 .509 .49 .49 .528 REIT .486 .364 .358 .506 .493 .527 HOSPITAL .478 .478 .565 .521 .565 .608 BEVERAGE .47 .411 .529 .588 .529 .529 GREEN .454 .409 .409 .5 .545 .545 GAMING .434 .434 .434 .434 .521 .565 BIOTECH .425 .425 .425 .45 .428 .447 CHINA .403 .28 .35 .28 .28 .298 OILGAS .347 .326 .304 .312 .297 .368 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
====================================================================
7/22/2019 Overseas currencies are rallying this morning. A reduction in American
interest rates is expected. Stick with the Buy B10. The Fed is now
under pressure to lower rates from Pres. Trump and Democrat Elizabeth
Warren who claims to be seeing the same flashing warning signs about
the economy she saw before the 2007-2009 financial melt-down.
Expect the FED to do whatever is necessary to keep the rally in blue chips
advancing. Of course, a rally in blue chips and dividend stocks does not mean
that all boats will rise in the stock market. So, right now we want to
focus on the ETFs with the highest IP21 (Accumulation) and ITRS (relative
strength readings. Gold stocks ought to keep zig-zagging upwards
as long as GLD's closes show an uptrend.
This is not a market for broad speculation on smaller NASDAQ stocks.
That is why the ITRS Relative Strength Indicators for IWM and MDY
are negative. And today there were 115 new 12-month lows on the NASDAQ
and only 69 new highs. Table 2 below also shows more MINCPs (Closing Power
new lows) than MAXCPs (Closing Power new highs). And only 55% of
all stocks and ETFs are above their 65-dma. So some nervousness is
reasonble.
And what will the Fed or the Trump Administration do to boost the market
after a 1/4 percent rate cut? I hear that Trump will be proposing a cut
in taxes on capital gains. We will just have to watch the technicals this week.
A rally to the upper 2.5% band with the V-Indicator or IP21 (Accumulation Index)
negative, could bring a Sell S9-V or Sell S12.
For now Hold long
DIA 271.65+0.20 (+0.07%) overnight + 1.03
MSFT 138.43+1.81 (+1.32%) overnight + 0.82
QQQ 192.53+1.52 (+0.80%) overnight + 0.85
FAS 77.55+0.34 (+0.44%)
NUGT 35.87+0.86 (+2.46%) overnight - 0.79
GLD 134.45-0.02 (-0.01%) overnight - 0.62
HIG 57.04-0.07 (-0.12%)Trust that the FED will do whatever is necessary to keep the rally in blue chips
advancing.
Gold's Uptrend
Charts 7/22/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/22/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-22/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-22/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/22/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 271.65 .2 273.42 -35.8% ------- RED -.065 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.42 -3.94 362.75 161.1% Bullish RED .054 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 297.9 .73 299.71 -47.7% ------- BLUE -.062 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 192.53 1.52 193.15 -42.1% ------- BLUE .037 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 352.55 -.21 355.46 -38% Bearish RED -.015 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.68 -.14 155.24 -52.1% Bearish RED -.111 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 77.55 .34 78.94 -142.8% ------- BLUE .051 .067 (bullish) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 177.35 9.81 159.93 366.8% Bullish BLUE -.04 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 179.72 6.5 173.52 36.6% ------- BLUE -.049 .161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.12 .24 105.47 -45.4% ------- BLUE -.064 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.45 -.02 132.4 34.3% Bullish RED .253 .058 (highest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.39 .33 14.4 -88.1% Bearish BLUE -.007 -.136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.54 -.12 23.75 -82% ------- RED -.056 .084 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190722 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 123 NEWLOWS 46 MAXCP 18 MINCP 45 Professionals are net bearish. TTTNH 27 TTTNL 101 Day Traders are net bearish. FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 117 Swing traders are net bearish. CPCROSSA 61 CPCROSSD 121 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 10 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 136 REDSELL 114 AUGSELS7 29 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/22/19 Bullish = 34 Bearish = 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .941 .941 .951 .951 .961 .961 GOLD .921 .941 .921 .901 .882 .823 INSURANC .868 .868 .894 .868 .894 .894 DOWJONES .862 .827 .827 .827 .862 .931 BIGBANKS .857 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .769 .846 .846 NIFTY .821 .803 .821 .803 .785 .803 HACKERS .8 .8 .8 .75 .7 .75 JETS .8 .7 .8 .8 .8 .7 TRANSP .8 .75 .6 .55 .9 .75 SOLAR .777 .722 .722 .777 .666 .722 NASD-100 .755 .755 .816 .765 .806 .846 SP-100 .736 .681 .692 .615 .736 .736 FIDSTKS .728 .733 .733 .695 .744 .76 SP500 .702 .7 .702 .679 .759 .767 SEMI .684 .639 .639 .576 .558 .585 MILITARY .678 .642 .642 .607 .714 .714 INDEXES .675 .708 .713 .702 .74 .767 UTILITY .675 .75 .775 .775 .775 .75 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 ETFS .649 .684 .736 .719 .736 .754 RUS-1000 .629 .629 .636 .612 .678 .669 GUNS .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 SOFTWARE .622 .639 .655 .639 .606 .639 COMODITY .609 .682 .56 .658 .658 .731 ELECTRON .598 .554 .56 .515 .541 .547 FINANCE .59 .625 .579 .534 .579 .602 HOMEBLDG .588 .588 .705 .764 .882 .823 INFRA .583 .611 .555 .666 .722 .666 FOOD .574 .648 .518 .648 .648 .703 REGBANKS .571 .642 .535 .428 .464 .428 AUTO .564 .589 .538 .564 .615 .589 INDMATER .537 .562 .512 .475 .6 .537 ============================================================================================== RETAIL .49 .509 .49 .49 .528 .528 GAMING .434 .434 .434 .521 .565 .521 HOSPITAL .434 .565 .521 .565 .608 .608 BIOTECH .423 .425 .45 .428 .436 .436 CHEM .423 .461 .461 .461 .557 .5 BEVERAGE .411 .529 .588 .529 .529 .647 GREEN .409 .409 .5 .545 .545 .5 REIT .364 .358 .506 .493 .513 .533 OILGAS .319 .298 .305 .291 .361 .368 CHINA .28 .35 .28 .28 .298 .298 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0====================================================================
====================================================================
7/19/2019 Stick with the Buy B10. Hold long DIA, QQQ, MSFT, FAS
NUGT, GLD and HIG. I suspect the FED will do whatever is necessary
to keep the rally in blue chips advancing. A new DJI breakout now
over 27500 would be very bullish.
Friday was weak technically. Without Boeing's 16 point leap
upwards on Friday, the DJI would have fallen more than 150
and be back down to the key support at 27000, the previous
point of breakout. Friday's weakness may owe to fears of a war
between US and Iraq. But then why is Oil so weak? See below how
the Closing Power for oil's ETF UCO has just made a
a 12-month low. Some say UCO's weakness owes to falling Global
demand because overseas' economies are weak. But then why is our
Tiger Index of Foreign ETFs so close to making its own 12-month highs.
Perhaps, Oil is in decline more because Green Energy is catching on
as fears of Global Warming spread. I would not expect Wall Street
pundits to talk about this. Oil weakness now given talk of war with
Iran and Gold's strength is quite striking. There are lots of oil stocks
among our bearish MINCPs now.
Watch what the Fed does, don't listen to what they say.
The current weakness in real interest rates may have a better explanation.
The FED is expected to lower rates because it in not independent. History
shows this many times, 1924, 1927, 1970, 1972-1973... Despite Powell's
assertions to the contrary, I would argue that the FED knows its job now
very well. That job is to boost the stock market this Summer, thereby
helping the economy stay strong and ultimately helping Trump, Republicans and
the powers-that-be next year. Rationalization abound. For this purpose,
the uncertainties about the global economy and the trade war's consequences
are very handy. The Bond markets understand this. That is why there is such
a big gap between the the Fed's own Federal Funds' rate which they set and
the actual rates for 3 months and 10 year bonds. If I am right then the FED
will formally lower its rates soon. It will not want to take any chances.
So what does this mean for stocks? Perhaps, not so much for many smaller
stocks. But it is clearly bullish, probably very bullish, for the
big American blue chips in the DJI and leading tech stocks, the very
stocks that "hot" overseas money invests in while the Dollar and
Blue Chips are strong. So, I would continue to trust the Buy B10. This
is a bullish signal. And seasonality is very bullish. The powers-that-be
want a strong economy going into the Presidential Election. What
better way to ensure this, than to lower interest rates just as the
DJI makes a new all-time high. This is exactly what the FED did
in the Summer of 1927, just before the DJI went into "warp" speed
upwards for two more years.
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/19/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-19/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-19/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/19/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 271.45 -.82 273.6 -35.5% ------- RED -.026 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 377.36 16.25 361.61 165.2% Bullish BLUE .117 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 297.17 -1.66 300.75 -58.1% Bearish RED .007 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.01 -1.41 194.15 -65.3% Bearish RED .043 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 352.76 -1.1 355.24 -60.9% Bearish RED .038 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.82 -.89 155.29 -73.8% Bearish RED -.087 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 77.21 -1.73 79.79 -202.9% Bearish RED .077 .067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 167.54 -1.12 165.28 184.3% Bearish RED -.116 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 173.22 -2.99 178.44 -108.8% ------- RED -.043 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.88 -1.57 106.08 -30.2% ------- RED -.071 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.47 -2.01 133.53 35% Bullish RED .29 .067 (strongest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.06 .18 14.64 -320.1% Bearish BLUE .011 -.156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.66 -.23 23.93 -54.5% ------- RED -.017 .073 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190719 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 76 Slipping back NEWLOWS 27 MAXCP 13 MINCP 39 Professionals are new bearish. TTTNH 16 TTTNL 98 FASTUP 37 FASTDOWN 104 Bearish Swing-traders. CPCROSSA 68 CPCROSSD 263 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 16 ACCUMVER 16 HIGHIP21 12 HIUPPCT 16 REDSELL 111 AUGSELS7 26 TRAPDOOR 9 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/19/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .941 .951 .951 .961 .961 .97 GOLD .941 .921 .901 .882 .823 .843 ^^^^ ^^^^ INSURANC .868 .894 .868 .894 .894 .894 DOWJONES .833 .833 .8 .866 .9 .833 NIFTY .807 .824 .807 .789 .789 .789 HACKERS .8 .8 .75 .7 .75 .75 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .846 .846 .846 NASD-100 .755 .816 .765 .806 .826 .816 UTILITY .75 .775 .775 .775 .75 .75 TRANSP .75 .6 .55 .9 .75 .75 FIDSTKS .733 .733 .695 .744 .755 .766 SOLAR .722 .722 .777 .666 .722 .666 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 1 INDEXES .704 .709 .698 .736 .763 .741 JETS .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SP500 .7 .702 .679 .759 .761 .776 ETFS .684 .736 .719 .736 .736 .666 COMODITY .682 .56 .658 .658 .707 .756 SP-100 .681 .692 .615 .736 .736 .769 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .5 FOOD .648 .518 .648 .648 .685 .759 MILITARY .642 .642 .607 .714 .714 .75 REGBANKS .642 .535 .428 .464 .464 .642 SEMI .639 .639 .576 .558 .576 .576 SOFTWARE .639 .655 .639 .606 .639 .672 RUS-1000 .629 .636 .61 .679 .667 .682 FINANCE .625 .579 .534 .579 .59 .704 GUNS .625 .625 .625 .625 .625 .562 INFRA .611 .555 .666 .722 .666 .722 AUTO .589 .538 .564 .615 .589 .641 HOMEBLDG .588 .705 .764 .882 .823 .882 INDMATER .562 .512 .475 .6 .525 .587 ELECTRON .554 .56 .515 .541 .541 .535 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .529 .529 .647 .647 HOSPITAL .521 .521 .565 .608 .608 .521 RETAIL .509 .49 .49 .528 .528 .547 N=37 ============================================================================================= CHEM .461 .461 .461 .557 .519 .538 GAMING .434 .434 .521 .565 .521 .478 BIOTECH .423 .45 .428 .436 .436 .42 GREEN .409 .5 .545 .545 .5 .545 REIT .36 .51 .496 .517 .537 .578 CHINA .35 .28 .28 .298 .298 .14 OILGAS .298 .305 .291 .361 .354 .416 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=8
====================================================================
7/18/2019 We are seeing a pullback and a testing of the DJI's 27000-27100 breakout
level. Trust the current Buy B10. The key NYSE A/D Line continues to be
in an uptrend. Buy B10s do often bring re-tests of their point of breakout.
It is usually quite bullish when these tests are over. Even if the DJI were to
drop below 27000, without a fresh Peerless Sell signal, I would expect any
decline to be shallow. A paper loss of 2% to 4% after a Buy B10 was seen in
in only 8 (16%) of the earlier 48 Buy B10s not occurring right after a bear market.
So, there is some risk If this is too great a risk, then consider shorting some of the
Bearish MINCPs that show an AI/200 under 60, an IP21 under -.15 and
an ITRS below -.15. The most bearish of these are:
Bearish MINCPs
Stock AI/200 IP21 Price
-----------------------------------------
RRC 32 -.283 5.23
XOP 47 -.173 24.65
FRA 57 -.323 6.08
http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-18/BEARISH.htm
Short-term interest rates fell sharply today. Again, there is talk of an
"inverted yield" curve being bearish for the general market. Possibly, but
all the earlier cases back to 1960 occurred when short-term interest
rates were above 4%. With the Dollar strong, overseas "hot" money will
certainly keep coming into US bonds and blue chips. And that means
the uptrend will likley continue unless President Trump starts a war or
raises tariffs sharply higher against Chinese or European imports. That
is the "wild-card" and it is the main reason Gold is being bought as a hedge
now.
Stay long the positions below. Today GOLD and NUGT were again good
hedges. Gold stocks have often rallied when a market top was nearing. This
was true repeatedly between 1968 and 2008. But this approach did not work
well in 2016 when the Dollar was strong and interest rates were coming down.
So, I see gold and NUGT continuing to move up more. Silver stocks are
joining in, too. But watch the simple price uptrend of GLD. When that uptrend
is broken, I would want to sell it and NUGT. The volatility of NUGT makes
it dangerous day-to day. Most of us will do better setting an upside target
with it based on a percentage profit like 50% or drawing lines through its recent
highs. See the NUGT chart of 2016 to get some ideas about how to trade it.
And see my original study of big Gold and NEM advances as signs of an
imminent market top. The clearest example comes from NEM's chart of 1987.
See => http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/02-21-2008/index.html
Today's Action and Our Longs
DIA 272.27 unchanged...
QQQ 192.42 +0.11%
FAS 78.94 +1.98%
MSFT 136.42 +0.15% 3% higher opening expected..
NUGT 36.11 +12.84%
GLD. 136.48 +1.41%
HIG 57.90 +0.42%.
Current Peerless - DJIA and NYSE A/D Line
Current NASD-100 TigerSoft Chart and QQQ A/D Line
Current Weekly - MSFT #1 Power Ranked DJI-30
Trading Gold Stocks - Part 1
Booming NUGT and GLD (Gold)
NUGT and GLD (2016)
NEM and DJI (1987)
If rates were going back up, Gold's rise and Dollar's falling would
be dangerous. Fortunately, short-term rates are falling and Dollar
is still close to its 12-month highs.
Charts 7/18/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/18/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-18/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-18/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/18/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 272.27 -.01 273.39 24.8% Bullish BLUE .026 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 361.11 -8.41 365.33 29% ------- RED -.023 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 298.83 1.09 300.65 -8% Bearish BLUE .09 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 192.42 .22 193.53 0% ------- BLUE .129 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 353.86 1.13 357.08 6.5% Bearish BLUE .104 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.71 .58 156.11 -6.4% Bearish BLUE -.007 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.94 1.53 80.42 -35.3% ------- BLUE .08 .082 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.94 -.41 25.35 -38.3% Bearish RED -.132 -.216 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 168.66 7.39 161.52 495.4% Bearish BLUE -.089 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 176.21 3.95 177.04 87.8% Bullish BLUE .066 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.45 .87 105.52 -25% ------- BLUE .009 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 136.48 1.9 133.53 141.7% Bullish BLUE .374 .077 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.88 -.08 14.98 -383.7% Bearish RED -.04 -.176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.89 .18 23.92 -8.4% Bullish BLUE .018 .08Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190717 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 137 NEWLOWS 37 MAXCP 27 MINCP 66 Professionals are not convinced of mkt's bullishness. TTTNH 35 TTTNL 91 FASTUP 46 FASTDOWN 103 CPCROSSA 154 CPCROSSD 58 BIGVOLUP 9 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 17 LOWACCUM 129 REDSELL 107 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 10
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/18/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .951 .961 .961 .97 .97 GOLD .921 .901 .882 .823 .843 .803 INSURANC .894 .868 .894 .894 .894 .868 DOWJONES .833 .8 .866 .9 .833 .8 NIFTY .824 .807 .789 .789 .789 .701 NASD-100 .816 .765 .806 .826 .816 .775 HACKERS .8 .75 .7 .75 .75 .7 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 UTILITY .775 .775 .775 .75 .75 .775 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .846 .846 .769 ETFS .736 .719 .736 .736 .649 .649 FIDSTKS .733 .695 .744 .755 .766 .744 SOLAR .722 .777 .666 .722 .666 .611 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .857 1 .857 INDEXES .709 .698 .736 .763 .736 .704 HOMEBLDG .705 .764 .882 .823 .823 .647 SP500 .702 .679 .759 .761 .77 .718 SP-100 .692 .615 .736 .736 .769 .714 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .619 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .5 .5 SOFTWARE .655 .639 .606 .639 .672 .672 SEMI .645 .581 .563 .581 .581 .49 MILITARY .642 .607 .714 .714 .75 .678 RUS-1000 .636 .61 .678 .669 .679 .618 GUNS .625 .625 .625 .625 .562 .562 TRANSP .6 .55 .9 .75 .75 .5 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .647 .647 .647 FINANCE .579 .534 .579 .59 .715 .613 ELECTRON .564 .519 .544 .544 .538 .461 COMODITY .56 .658 .658 .707 .756 .731 INFRA .555 .666 .722 .666 .722 .583 AUTO .538 .564 .615 .589 .641 .538 REGBANKS .535 .428 .464 .464 .642 .5 FOOD .518 .648 .648 .685 .74 .74 INDMATER .512 .475 .6 .525 .587 .45 REIT .506 .493 .513 .533 .574 .554 ============================================================================================ GREEN .5 .545 .545 .5 .545 .545 ============================================================================================ RETAIL .49 .49 .528 .528 .547 .433 HOSPITAL .478 .565 .608 .608 .521 .565 CHEM .461 .461 .557 .519 .557 .346 BIOTECH .447 .428 .436 .436 .412 .439 GAMING .434 .521 .565 .521 .478 .478 OILGAS .305 .291 .361 .354 .402 .381 CHINA .28 .28 .298 .298 .14 .105 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
7/17/2019 Though we are seeing a pullback, the active Peerless signal is
still a Buy B10. Nearly all of the Buy B10s were profitable when
finally reversed. About 25% of them gained more than 10%. The
median gain was 5%. Paper losses between 2% and 4.9% occurred
in 10 of the past 50 Buy B10s. But it should be noted that two of the
biggest paper losses occurred in a rebound after a bear market, a condition
which clearly is different than our situation now. See the table for all
B10s at the bottom of this page.
Stay long the positions below. Today GOLD and NUGT were good
hedges. Gold stocks feed on uncertainty and the prospects of falling
interest rates.
Today's ActionL
DIA 272.25 -0.43%
QQQ 192.20 -0.49%
FAS 77.41 -1.53%
MSFT 136.27 -0.59%
NUGT 32.00 +11.81%
GLD. 134.48 +2.18%
HIG 57.66 -0.67%.
Most often the DJI finds support at the previous point of breakout. See
how powerfully the DJI rebounded once the support at this key inflection
point held in 1995. If 27000 holds on the current test, there is a good chance the
very bullish 1995 scenario will play out here, at least for the leading ETFs. If 27000
does not hold, the risk is that the DJI will have to re-test 26300 and the
rising 65-dma. If this risk seems to great, I would suggest hedging with
some Gold stocks or by shorting other stocks in our bearish MINCPs tonight.
Gold's uptrend is accelerating. This often occurs when the general market
is coming closer to some kind of a top. It is right to be worried by Gold's
rise. (More on this warning tomorrow night.)
Why Is Gold So Strong? The Dollar is still near
its 12 month highs. It must be the fears of Brexit and
and an intensification of the US-China trade war. I
suppose it could also mean that the US is going to
Venezuela or Iran.
PULLBACKS AFTER BUY B10 BREAKOUTS
Bullish Scenario: Support at point of breakout holds
and the maximum paper loss is zero or less than 1%.
With the market so "mature", I understand that there is a lot of concern
about whether the expected support at 27000, the earlier point of breakout
will hold. Looking back at the charts of past breakout failures and pullbacks
we see that usually Peerless gives a sell signal before the breakout fails and
prices drop below the point of breakout. This was true, for example in 1929.
and in September 2012.
Usually Peerless gives a sell signal after
a breakout that will prove to be false.
As long as NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend,
look for support of DJI at rising 65-dma if point
of breakout fails to act as good support. This was
also true in November 1950, March 1985, Jul 1993
and Deceber 2013.
Evem when A/D Line uptrend is broken, we should still
look for support of DJI at rising 65-dma if there is no
Peerless Sell.
Charts 7/17/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/17/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-17/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-17/BEARISH.htm
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/17/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 272.28 -1.14 270.92 66% ------- RED .075 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 369.52 6.77 359 239% Bullish BLUE .095 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 297.74 -1.97 299.31 -14.5% Bearish RED .066 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 192.2 -.95 192.42 -9.3% Bearish RED .074 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 352.73 -2.73 353.4 -20.7% Bearish RED .078 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.13 -1.11 154.91 -49.5% Bearish RED -.016 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 77.41 -1.53 79.5 -90.6% Bearish RED .054 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 161.27 1.34 152.79 304.3% Bearish RED -.059 -.153 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 172.26 -1.26 173.14 32.3% Bearish RED .06 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.58 .11 106.98 -138.5% Bearish BLUE-.009 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.58 2.18 132.7 28.2% Bullish BLUE .319 .084 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.96 -.44 15 -381.2% Bearish RED -.043 -.174 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.3 -.05 26.24 11.4% ------- -----.267 .437 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.71 -.04 23.93 -85.7% Bullish RED .031 .078 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190717 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 137 NEWLOWS 36 MAXCP 27 MINCP 66 Bearish Plurality: Professionals are new bearish. TTTNH 13 TTTNL 100 Day Traders are new bearish. FASTUP 37 FASTDOWN 78 CPCROSSA 58 CPCROSSD 200 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 18 ACCUMVER 14 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 137 REDSELL 98 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 8 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/17/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .961 .961 .97 .97 .97 GOLD .901 .882 .823 .843 .803 .843 INSURANC .868 .894 .894 .894 .868 .868 NIFTY .807 .789 .789 .789 .684 .666 DOWJONES .8 .866 .9 .833 .8 .8 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 SOLAR .777 .666 .722 .666 .611 .722 UTILITY .775 .775 .75 .75 .775 .8 DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .846 .769 .769 NASD-100 .765 .806 .826 .816 .775 .775 HOMEBLDG .764 .882 .823 .823 .705 .705 HACKERS .75 .7 .75 .75 .7 .65 ETFS .719 .736 .736 .649 .649 .666 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .857 1 .857 .857 INDEXES .698 .736 .763 .736 .704 .736 FIDSTKS .695 .744 .755 .766 .739 .739 SP500 .679 .759 .761 .77 .716 .708 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .666 .619 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 INFRA .666 .722 .666 .722 .583 .583 COMODITY .658 .658 .707 .756 .731 .756 FOOD .648 .648 .685 .74 .722 .74 SOFTWARE .639 .606 .639 .672 .672 .639 GUNS .625 .625 .625 .562 .562 .5 SP-100 .615 .736 .736 .769 .714 .681 RUS-1000 .61 .678 .667 .681 .62 .612 MILITARY .607 .714 .714 .75 .678 .75 SEMI .576 .558 .576 .576 .486 .522 AUTO .564 .615 .589 .641 .538 .538 TRANSP .55 .9 .75 .75 .5 .4 GREEN .545 .545 .5 .545 .545 .59 FINANCE .534 .579 .59 .715 .613 .59 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .647 .647 .647 .588 GAMING .521 .565 .521 .478 .478 .434 HOSPITAL .521 .608 .608 .521 .565 .565 ELECTRON .519 .544 .544 .538 .448 .474 =============================================================================================== REIT .493 .513 .533 .574 .554 .635 RETAIL .49 .528 .528 .547 .433 .433 INDMATER .475 .6 .525 .587 .45 .5 CHEM .452 .566 .509 .547 .339 .396 REGBANKS .428 .464 .464 .642 .5 .464 BIOTECH .427 .438 .438 .413 .438 .452 OILGAS .291 .361 .354 .402 .381 .381 CHINA .28 .298 .298 .14 .087 .175 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 Buy B10 Gains and Maximum Paper Losses 1929-201950 past B10s In 27/50 cases, there was no paper loss. Paper Losses between 4% and 5.0% = 1 (just after a mini-bear market) 3% and 4% = 4 (1 just after a bear market) 2% and 3% = 5 1% and 2% = 5Gains greater than 10% = 12/50 Gains greater than 5% = 25/50 Losses = 3/50Gain Maximum Paper Loss Comments ======================================================================= 19341108 B10 97.3 .069 99.6 -.0237 12/20 over 2% ======================================================================= 19440308 B10 139.5 .176 135.0 -.0322 4/24 over 3% ======================================================================= 19441208 B10 150.5 .090 148.7 -.0119 12/27 ======================================================================= 19490805 B10 179.1 .232 177.8 -.0072 8/29 ======================================================================= 19500315 B10 207.5 .063 206.1 -.0067 3/31 =======================================================================19521126 B10 282.4 .034 none 0 ======================================================================= 19540302 B10 297.5 .575 none 0 ======================================================================= 19550415 B10 376.7 .244 none 0 ======================================================================= 19560305 B10 491.7 .055 none 0 ======================================================================= 19570611 B10 509.5 .015 497.1 -.0243 6/24 over 2% =======================================================================19580203 B10 454.0 .432 436.9 -.0376 2/25 over 3% (bear market) ======================================================================= 19590224 B10 602.9 .078 none 0 ======================================================================= 19611114 B10 732.6 -.002 720.1 -.017 11/14 ======================================================================= 19640701 B10 838.1 .120 823.4 -.0175 8/6 ======================================================================= 19640909 B10 855.6 .097 none 0 =======================================================================19650817 B10 894.3 .084 887.1 -.008 8/23 ======================================================================= 19650916 B10 931.2 .041 926.5 -.005 9/21 ======================================================================= 19680924 B10 938.28 .042 933.24 -.0053 9/26 ======================================================================= 19730926 B10 949.5 .04 none 0 ======================================================================= 19790115 B10 848.67 .032 807 -.0491 2/7 over 4% (bear market) =======================================================================19790815 B10 885.84 .009 none 0 ======================================================================== 19840802 B10 1166.07 .106 none 0 ======================================================================== 19850121 B10 1261.37 .023 none 0 ======================================================================== 19881020 B10 2181.19 .001 none 0 ======================================================================== 19890714 B10 2554.82 .078 none 0 ========================================================================19911227 B10 3101.52 .081 none 0 ======================================================================== 19930526 B10 3540.16 .121 -.025 7/6 3449.92 ======================================================================== 19950215 B10 3989.17 .391 none 0 ======================================================================== 19950914 B10 4801.8 .156 4703.82 -.0204 10/26 over 2% paper loss ======================================================================== 19960129 B10 5304.98 .046 none 0 ========================================================================19960912 B10 5771.94 .188 none 0 ======================================================================== 20030819 B10 9428.90 .04 9275.06 -.0163 9/30 ======================================================================== 20041108 B10 10391.31 .05 none 0 ======================================================================== 20050304 B10 10940.85 -.003 ---- -.003 ======================================================================== 20060109 B10 11011.9 .051 10667.3 -.0312 1/20 over 3% paper loss ========================================================================20061214 B10 12416.76 -.002 none 0 ======================================================================== 20070712 B10 13861.73 .006 none 0 ======================================================================== 20120314 B10 13194.10 -.005 13124.6 -.0052 ======================================================================== 20120913 B10 13539.86 .003 none 0 ======================================================================== 20130122 B10 13712.21 .107 none 0 ========================================================================20131114 B10 15821.63 .040 15739.4 -.0051 ======================================================================== 20140513 B10 16715.44 .016 16374.3 -.0204 over 2% paper loss ======================================================================== 20140918 B10 17265.99 .001 none 0 ======================================================================== 20150224 B10 18209.19 .006 17635.3 -.0319 3/11 over 3% ======================================================================== 20160419 B10 18053.60 .002 none 0 ========================================================================20160711 B10 18226.93 .006 18034.7 -.0105 9/14 ======================================================================== 20170125 B10 20068.51 .027 none 0 ======================================================================== 20170602 B10 21206.29 .110 none 0 ======================================================================== 20170727 B10 21796.55 .080 none 0 ======================================================================== 20171128 B10 23836.41 .094 none 0 ========================================================================20190711 B10 27088.08 open....
====================================================================
7/16/2019 The Peerless Buy B10 should keep us bullish and
long DIA, QQQ, FAS, MSFT, NUGT and GLD.
Buy HIG in the very strong Insurance group.
Look at Table 3 below. Notice that Insurance Stocks are among
the groups showing nearly 90% of their stocks above the
65-dma. If there is a pullback, plan to buy one of the top
Power Ranked insurance stocks, ERIE. HIG should be bought now.
Charts 7/16/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/16/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-16/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-16/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/16/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 273.42 -.18 268.69 102.6% ------- RED .102 -------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 362.75 1.14 352.3 134.8% Bullish BLUE .085 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 299.71 -1.04 298.61 42.1% ------- RED .081 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 193.15 -1 192.56 64.6% ------- RED .115 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.46 .22 354.2 12.5% Bearish BLUE .078 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.24 -.05 155.67 -5.1% Bearish BLUE 0 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.94 -.85 78.85 -12.6% ------- RED .047 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.26 .29 24.11 189.2% Bearish BLUE -.013 -.218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 159.93 -5.35 151.64 365.8% Bearish RED -.079 -.205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 173.52 -4.92 171.13 179.9% ------- RED .08 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.47 -.61 108.53 -157.2% Bearish RED .029 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 132.4 -1.13 133.83 24.4% ------- RED .281 .065 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.4 -.24 15.09 -60.6% ------- RED .042 -.151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.75 -.18 24.12 -14.6% Bullish ---- .059 .07 Bullish Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190716 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 139 NEWLOWS 20 MAXCP 20 MINCP 40 Professionals are net Bearish TTTNH 22 TTTNL 61 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 61 Swing traders are net bearish. CPCROSSA 94 CPCROSSD 76 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 17 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 15 LOWACCUM 138 REDSELL 95 AUGSELS7 15 TRAPDOOR 8 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/16/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .961 .97 .97 .97 .961 TRANSP .9 .75 .75 .5 .4 .4 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .851 .851 .851 GOLD .882 .823 .843 .803 .843 .843 ^^^^ HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .823 .705 .705 .705 DOWJONES .862 .931 .862 .827 .827 .793 ^^^^^^^^ DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .769 .769 .769 NASD-100 .806 .826 .816 .775 .775 .775 ^^^^^^^^ JETS .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 .7 NIFTY .789 .789 .789 .684 .666 .631 UTILITY .775 .75 .75 .775 .8 .8 SP500 .759 .761 .77 .716 .706 .706 FIDSTKS .744 .755 .766 .739 .739 .722 ETFS .736 .736 .649 .649 .649 .614 SP-100 .736 .736 .769 .714 .681 .692 INDEXES .735 .762 .735 .702 .724 .686 INFRA .722 .666 .722 .583 .583 .638 BIGBANKS .714 .857 1 .857 .857 .857 MILITARY .714 .714 .75 .678 .75 .75 HACKERS .7 .75 .75 .7 .65 .65 RUS-1000 .678 .667 .679 .621 .612 .62 COMPUTER .666 .666 .666 .619 .666 .666 EDU .666 .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 SOLAR .666 .722 .666 .611 .722 .722 COMODITY .658 .707 .756 .731 .756 .585 FOOD .648 .685 .74 .722 .74 .592 GUNS .625 .625 .562 .562 .5 .5 AUTO .615 .589 .641 .538 .512 .538 HOSPITAL .608 .608 .521 .565 .521 .565 SOFTWARE .606 .639 .672 .672 .639 .606 INDMATER .6 .525 .587 .45 .5 .537 FINANCE .579 .59 .715 .613 .59 .636 GAMING .565 .521 .478 .478 .434 .521 SEMI .558 .576 .576 .486 .522 .513 CHEM .557 .519 .557 .346 .403 .5 GREEN .545 .5 .545 .545 .59 .59 ELECTRON .541 .541 .535 .445 .471 .458 BEVERAGE .529 .647 .647 .647 .588 .529 RETAIL .528 .528 .547 .433 .433 .415 REIT .513 .533 .574 .554 .635 .614 ============================================================================================== REGBANKS .464 .464 .642 .5 .464 .607 BIOTECH .435 .438 .413 .438 .449 .463 OILGAS .361 .354 .402 .381 .368 .277 CHINA .298 .298 .14 .087 .14 .175 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
7/15/2019 The Peerless Buy B10 should keep us bullish and
long DIA, QQQ, FAS, MSFT, NUGT and GLD.
The FOMC will meet at the end of July. If they lower
interest rates with the key indexes making new highs,
we could well be seeing a powerful new leg up. And
even if they do not lower rates, the uptrend should keep
rising until a bad Jobs' number comes out. Inflation is low,
the Dollar is strong and wages are rising more slowly than
productivity. Bears will need something new to seize upon.
It's not clear what that will be unless Gold zooms upward
as a warning about the Dollar this autumn.
This is not yet a broad advance. Only 60% of all stocks and ETFs
are above their 65-dma. The main general market ETFs and
their stocks are the leaders now. As long as the NYSE A/D Line is
moving to new highs, too, I would think that DIA, SPY and QQQ leadership
is fine for now. Only if the NYSE A/D Line starts lagging, could we see
a top and even then 27000 should be good support now.
It is certainly bullish now that both the Opening and Closing Power for the
SP-500 are in rising trends. Prices could soon be opening higher and then
move up even more by the close.
Let us keep an eye on the A/D Line of the stocks that make up these
all-important ETFs. Right now, their A/D Lines, which are shown below,
are each soaring to 12-month highs. This is bullish. Pullbacks most often
occur when these A/D Lines start lagging and then break their uptrends.
Charts 7/15/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/15/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-15/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-15/BEARISH.htm
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/15/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 273.6 .21 267.86 102.7% Bullish ---- .112 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 361.61 -3.72 353.09 147.3% ------- BLUE .089 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 300.75 .1 297.19 65.8% Bullish RED .106 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 194.15 .62 190.66 115.8% Bullish BLUE .132 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.24 -1.84 354.57 10.4% Bearish RED .04 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.29 -.82 155.4 3.2% Bearish RED -.027 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.79 -.63 79.14 106.7% ------- RED .078 .058 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 165.28 3.76 148.52 661.8% Bearish BLUE -.062 -.169 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 178.44 1.4 167.28 374% Bullish BLUE .123 .062 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.08 .56 108.84 -77.2% ------- BLUE .046 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.53 0 131.75 84.5% Bullish BLUE .276 .073 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.64 -.34 14.58 0% Bearish RED .038 -.127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.93 .01 23.82 -14.6% Bullish RED .059 .081 bullish Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190715 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 244 NEWLOWS 31 MAXCP 27 MINCP 30 Bearish - Professionals are still hedging. TTTNH 7 TTTNL 55 Day Traders are net sellers at openings. FASTUP 39 FASTDOWN 56 CPCROSSA 51 CPCROSSD 190 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 136 REDSELL 96 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 8 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/15/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .97 .97 .961 .961 DOWJONES .931 .862 .827 .827 .793 .827 INSURANC .888 .888 .851 .851 .851 .888 BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 .857 .857 .857 DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .769 .769 .769 NASD-100 .826 .816 .775 .775 .775 .755 GOLD .823 .843 .803 .843 .843 .843 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .705 .705 .647 .647 JETS .8 .8 .7 .8 .7 .8 NIFTY .789 .789 .684 .666 .631 .649 INDEXES .766 .739 .701 .722 .679 .673 SP500 .761 .77 .716 .706 .706 .712 FIDSTKS .755 .766 .739 .739 .722 .739 HACKERS .75 .75 .7 .65 .65 .5 UTILITY .75 .75 .775 .8 .8 .825 TRANSP .75 .75 .5 .4 .4 .65 ETFS .736 .649 .649 .649 .614 .614 SP-100 .736 .769 .714 .681 .692 .692 SOLAR .722 .666 .611 .722 .722 .777 MILITARY .714 .75 .678 .75 .75 .75 COMODITY .707 .756 .731 .756 .56 .609 FOOD .679 .735 .716 .735 .566 .603 RUS-1000 .667 .679 .62 .613 .621 .634 COMPUTER .666 .666 .619 .666 .666 .714 EDU .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 INFRA .666 .722 .583 .583 .638 .583 BEVERAGE .647 .647 .647 .588 .529 .588 SOFTWARE .639 .672 .672 .639 .606 .573 GUNS .625 .562 .562 .5 .5 .625 HOSPITAL .608 .521 .565 .521 .565 .521 FINANCE .59 .715 .613 .59 .636 .613 AUTO .589 .641 .538 .512 .538 .615 SEMI .576 .576 .486 .522 .513 .486 ELECTRON .541 .535 .445 .471 .458 .439 REIT .533 .574 .554 .635 .614 .574 RETAIL .528 .547 .433 .433 .415 .49 INDMATER .525 .587 .45 .5 .537 .55 GAMING .521 .478 .478 .434 .478 .521 CHEM .509 .547 .339 .396 .509 .509 ================================================================================================= GREEN .5 .545 .545 .59 .59 .59 ================================================================================================= REGBANKS .464 .642 .5 .464 .607 .571 BIOTECH .435 .413 .438 .449 .46 .43 OILGAS .354 .402 .381 .368 .277 .243 CHINA .298 .14 .087 .14 .175 .122 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0====================================================================
7/12/2019 The DJI's flat-top breakout into all-time high territory has produced
a major Buy B10. The path of least resistance is up, though on the
weekly DJI chart we see that prices have reached the last clear barrier.
Stay long DIA, QQQ, FAS, MSFT, NUGT and GLD. If you are
short a stock, I would suggest covering it. We may now be entering
an exciting "vertical ascent - take-off". It took 18 months for the
DJI to build the base it is breaking out of. We may not see another
bullish technical setup like this for a long time.
Based on the 5000+ point height of the DJI's pattern for the last year
before last week's breakout, I would reckon we now have an upside
target above 32,000! Sounds preposterous to some, for sure.
But if the FED does lower interest rates at the next FOMC meeting,
it will be with the DJI soaring in all-time high territory. The same thing
happened in July 1927 when the Government also had already done everything
that Wall Street wanted (de-regulation, tax cuts, tariffs, suppress unions...)
The FED then cut the Discount Rate in July 1927. Over the
next two years, the DJI doubled. It should be noted that the FED lost
control of the speculative bubble that resulted and the "little guy" was
enticed back into the market by how the stock prices of familiar names he
knew kept rising and rising.
DJI - 1927 and Bullish Rate Cut in July
It is counter-intuitive to chase stocks, I realize, but if I am right it is exactly those
stocks that are now in strong weekly uptrends and above all their resistance
levels and uptrend-lines that are likely to do the best. Performance funds must
buy them and the poor shorts in them will have no choice but to cover at higher
and higher levels. I searched through the weekly 5-year charts of all the stocks
making new 12-month highs. Here are the strongest stocks I could find. See
http://tigersoft.com/RUNWILD/INDEX.htm
Charts 7/12/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/12/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-12/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-12/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/12/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 273.39 2.47 268.06 76.6% Bullish BLUE .087 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 365.33 6.33 351.12 133.7% ------- BLUE .099 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 300.65 1.34 296.82 36.7% Bullish BLUE .116 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 193.53 1.11 189.71 64.8% Bullish BLUE .112 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.08 3.68 354.5 -11.4% ------- BLUE .083 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.11 1.2 155.19 -18.3% Bearish BLUE .024 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 80.42 .92 78.1 93.1% Bullish BLUE .103 .075 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 161.52 8.73 145.17 426.8% Bearish BLUE -.05 -.154 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 177.04 3.9 165.66 214.9% Bullish BLUE .118 .041 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.52 -1.46 107.74 -170.9% ------- RED .054 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.53 .83 131.29 52.5% Bullish BLUE .27 .074 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.98 -.02 14.64 121.7% ------- ---- .145 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 19.81 .22 19.65 -194.4% ------- BLUE -.045 -.418 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.92 -.01 24 14.6% Bullish BLUE .061 .087 Bullish Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190712 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 323 Bullish >10:1 New lows NEWLOWS 22 MAXCP 39 Low. MINCP 11 TTTNH 16 TTTNL 39 FASTUP 34 FASTDOWN 57 CPCROSSA 168 CPCROSSD 64 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 15 VHIP21 116 REDSELL 95 AUGSELS7 17 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/12/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 BONDFUND .97 .97 .97 .961 .961 .97 INSURANC .888 .851 .851 .851 .888 .888 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 GOLD .843 .803 .843 .843 .823 .843 DOWJONES .833 .8 .8 .766 .8 .8 HOMEBLDG .823 .705 .705 .647 .647 .647 NASD-100 .816 .775 .775 .775 .734 .785 JETS .8 .7 .8 .7 .8 .8 NIFTY .789 .684 .666 .631 .614 .684 SP500 .77 .716 .706 .706 .704 .737 SP-100 .769 .714 .681 .692 .692 .703 FIDSTKS .766 .739 .739 .722 .733 .755 COMODITY .756 .731 .756 .56 .585 .609 HACKERS .75 .7 .65 .65 .5 .6 MILITARY .75 .678 .75 .75 .75 .75 UTILITY .75 .775 .8 .8 .825 .775 TRANSP .75 .5 .4 .4 .6 .75 FOOD .74 .722 .74 .574 .592 .611 INDEXES .736 .698 .725 .682 .672 .731 INFRA .722 .583 .583 .638 .583 .666 FINANCE .715 .613 .59 .636 .613 .761 RUS-1000 .679 .62 .612 .622 .63 .66 SOFTWARE .672 .672 .639 .606 .573 .639 COMPUTER .666 .619 .666 .666 .714 .761 SOLAR .666 .611 .722 .722 .777 .777 ETFS .649 .649 .649 .614 .614 .807 BEVERAGE .647 .647 .588 .529 .588 .647 REGBANKS .642 .5 .464 .607 .571 .821 AUTO .641 .538 .512 .538 .589 .666 INDMATER .587 .45 .5 .537 .55 .575 SEMI .576 .486 .522 .513 .486 .54 REIT .574 .554 .635 .614 .567 .547 GUNS .562 .562 .5 .5 .562 .562 CHEM .547 .339 .396 .509 .528 .566 RETAIL .547 .433 .433 .415 .49 .452 GREEN .545 .545 .59 .59 .59 .59 ELECTRON .535 .445 .471 .458 .439 .503 HOSPITAL .521 .565 .521 .565 .521 .565 ================================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ================================================================================================== GAMING .478 .478 .434 .478 .521 .478 BIOTECH .41 .438 .449 .46 .427 .46 OILGAS .402 .381 .368 .277 .243 .263 CHINA .14 .087 .14 .175 .105 .245 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
7/11/2019 Today the DJI made its flat-top breakout into all-time high territory. This
produced a reversing and automatic Buy B10 from our Peerless sogtware.
Cover shorts in DIA and go long is the message the B10 brings. These are
reliably bullish signals. See the track record of Summer Buy B10s below.
our larger study of all Buy B10s here:
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/-Buy-B10.htm
Close out most short positions if their Closing Power downtrends are
broken. Buy more MSFT. Buy FAS. Hold long DIA and QQQ as well as
NUGT and GLD.
Since 1929, there have been 15 Summer automatic Buy B10s. The
median gain on the DJI when reversed was 8.5%, but the last 5 occurrences
brought only one gain of 8%. In 4 of the 15 cases, the Buy B10 was
very quickly reversed by a Sell signal. Fortunately, in 8 cases, there
was never any paper loss and in only 3 instances was the maximum
paper loss above 1.6% with the biggest loss being only 2.5%.
The current level of our Accumulation Index for the Peerless DJI chart is
only +.011. That may not matter, as the median gain for the Buy B10s
where the IP21 was below .039 was +9.75%. This is actually higher
than the gains for all Summer B10s.
Chasing a breakout may seem counter-intuitive, but qualified breakout
B10s show that a good rally is most apt to occur now. Perhaps, this is
because traders expect the next FOMC to cut nterest rates by 1/4%.
The bullishness now certainly has to do with the Summer's bullish seasonality.
Since 1967, in the the third years of the four-year Presidential cycle, the DJI
has gained +2.1%, +4.2% and +6% over the next 21, 42 and 65 trading days,
respectively. It has been higher in 75% of all these periods of time.
It is bullish that the NASDAQ, QQQ, SPY and DIA have now all broken
out to new all-time highs. The sellers at the old highs appear to have been
overcome. That means prices should rise more easily now.
Summer Buy B10s: 1929-2019
Summer Buy B10s: 1929-201919490805 B10 179.1 .232 177.8 -.0072 8/29 la/ma=1.023 aroc = .552 P=+144(+20) IP21=.279 V=+127 OP=.294 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19640701 B10 838.1 .120 823.4 -.0175 8/6 la/ma=1.024 aroc = .354 P=+74(+36) IP21=.006 V=-17 OP=+.456 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19640909 B10 855.6 .097 none 0 la/ma=1.018 aroc = .372 P=+67(+4) IP21=.038 V=-22 OP=+.282 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19650817 B10 894.3 .084 887.1 -.008 8/23 la/ma=1.019 aroc = .19 P=+88(+7) IP21=.011 V=+4 OP=+.272 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19650916 B10 931.2 .041 926.5 -.005 9/21 la/ma=1.031 aroc = .487 P=+92(+9) IP21=.05 V=+8 OP=+.413 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19790815 B10 885.84 .009 none 0 la/ma=1.044 aroc =.807 P=+232(+49) IP21=.317 V=+5 OP=+.476 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19840802 B10 1166.07 .106 none 0 la/ma=1.046 aroc =.340 P=-33(+48) IP21=.106 V=0 OP=+.10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19890714 B10 2554.82 .078 none 0 la/ma=1.025 aroc =.246 P=+56(+6) IP21=.092 V=2 OP=+.023 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19930819 B10 3612.12 .098 3527.23 -.025 la/ma=1.013 aroc =.189 P=+113(+6) IP21=.013 V=3 OP=+.217 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19960912 B10 5771.94 .188 none 0 la/ma=1.014 aroc =.261 P=+129(+60) IP21=.117 V=+8 OP=+.258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20030819 B10 9428.90 .04 9275.06 -.0163 9/30 la/ma=1.022 aroc =.430 P=+147(+120) IP21=.082 V=+1 OP=+.292 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20070712 B10 13861.73 .006 none 0 la/ma=1.024 aroc =.500 P=+283(+189) IP21=.035 V=+25 OP=+.097 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20120913 B10 13539.86 .003 none 0 la/ma=1.026 aroc =.332 P=+403(+86) IP21=.06 V=+59 OP=+.136 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20140918 B10 17265.99 .001 none 0 la/ma=1.011 aroc =.242 P=-35(-8) IP21=.103 V=-28 OP=+.236 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20170727 B10 21796.55 .080 none 0 La/ma=1.013 aroc =.269 P=+275(+30) IP21=.007 V=-5 OP=+.137 =============================================================================== N=15 Median Gain = 8.4% 9 of 15 showed no paper loss. Biggest paper loss was 2.5% 20190711 B10 27088.08 open la/ma=1.018 aroc =.466 P=+284(-1) IP21=.011 V=+22 OP=+.125 ===============================================================================What To Do?
I would suggest covering most short sales and buying the highest Tiger Power ranked
stocks in some of the more volatile industry groups with an IP21 value above +.12.
Buy more MSFT.
Group Top Power Ranked Stock
----------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-30 MSFT 138.4 V(Visa) 180.74
SP-500 MSFT 138.4 ABT 85.77
NASD-100 MSFT 138.4 XEL 61.19 SNPS 136.44 PYPL 120.65
Semi-Conductor LSCC 16.25 ENPH 19.48 SNPS 136.44
Solar RUN 19.64
Biotech IDXX 285.46
Another approach is to go long the major ETF with the biggest gains while
Peerless is on a Buy signal and smallest Paper Loss. That would be FAS
now. It is 3x leveraged, so its huge +71.4% gain over the last 10 months may
not be surprising, but its biggest paper loss is only 15.8%. Buy FAS.
Charts 7/11/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/11/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-11/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-11/BEARISH.htm T able 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/11/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 270.92 2.23 269.27 25.3% Bullish BLUE .038 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 359 6.7 355.86 64.1% ------- BLUE .07 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 299.31 .7 298.46 8.6% Bullish ---- .079 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 192.42 -.14 191.05 25.6% Bullish RED .054 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 353.4 -.8 357.89 -58.6% Bearish RED .054 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.91 -.76 156.68 -43.3% Bearish RED .022 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.5 .65 78.95 59.7% Bullish BLUE .049 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 152.79 1.15 148.77 54% Bearish RED -.13 -.207 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 173.14 2.01 169.76 82.3% Bullish BLUE .067 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.98 -1.55 109.22 -181.1% Bullish RED .085 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 132.7 -1.13 132.14 -35.1% ------- RED .247 .076 (highest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15 -.09 14.62 177.1% Bearish RED .102 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.93 -.19 23.85 -6.3% Bullish ---- .003 .092Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190711 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 259 Bullish NEWLOWS 32 MAXCP 23 MINCP 29 TTTNH 14 TTTNL 68 FASTUP 45 FASTDOWN 53 CPCROSSA 51 CPCROSSD 149 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 16 VHIP21 118 LOWACCUM 147 REDSELL 91 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/11/19 Bullish = 32 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .97 .96 .96 .97 .98 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .851 .851 .851 .888 .888 .851 GOLD .803 .843 .843 .823 .843 .901 DOWJONES .8 .8 .766 .8 .8 .833 NASD-100 .775 .775 .775 .734 .775 .826 UTILITY .775 .8 .8 .825 .775 .825 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .846 FIDSTKS .739 .739 .722 .733 .75 .771 COMODITY .731 .756 .56 .585 .609 .658 FOOD .722 .74 .574 .592 .611 .666 SP500 .716 .706 .706 .704 .733 .759 SP-100 .714 .681 .692 .692 .703 .736 HOMEBLDG .705 .705 .647 .647 .647 .705 INDEXES .702 .724 .681 .675 .724 .74 HACKERS .7 .65 .65 .5 .6 .6 JETS .7 .8 .7 .8 .8 .8 NIFTY .684 .666 .631 .614 .649 .684 MILITARY .678 .75 .75 .75 .75 .714 SOFTWARE .672 .639 .606 .573 .639 .655 ETFS .649 .649 .614 .614 .807 .877 BEVERAGE .647 .588 .529 .588 .647 .647 RUS-1000 .62 .612 .621 .632 .66 .664 COMPUTER .619 .666 .666 .714 .761 .761 FINANCE .613 .59 .636 .613 .75 .659 SOLAR .611 .722 .722 .777 .777 .777 INFRA .583 .583 .638 .583 .666 .638 HOSPITAL .565 .521 .565 .521 .565 .565 GUNS .562 .5 .5 .562 .562 .625 REIT .554 .635 .614 .567 .547 .54 GREEN .545 .59 .59 .59 .59 .545 AUTO .538 .512 .538 .589 .666 .692 N=32 ============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 REGBANKS .5 .464 .607 .571 .821 .678 TRANSP .5 .4 .4 .6 .7 .75 ============================================================================================== SEMI .486 .522 .513 .486 .531 .567 GAMING .478 .434 .478 .521 .478 .565 INDMATER .45 .5 .537 .55 .575 .575 ELECTRON .445 .471 .458 .439 .496 .528 BIOTECH .435 .449 .46 .427 .457 .476 RETAIL .433 .433 .415 .49 .452 .433 OILGAS .381 .368 .277 .243 .256 .263 CHEM .339 .396 .509 .528 .584 .584 CHINA .087 .14 .175 .105 .245 .333 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=10
=====================================================================
7/10/2019 Peerless remains on a combination Sell S12, S9-V, S4. But new high breakouts
into all-time high territory were made today above flat resistance by the NASDAQ,
SP-500, SPY and QQQ. For them, this is a very bullish development.
Since the the NASDAQ and QQQ can sometimes top out two months AFTER
the DJI does, I think we should take a long position in QQQ even as we hold
short DIA. Note how broad is the advance within the 100 QQQ stocks. This
also gives us a better way to play the bullish seasonality now beyond just holding
a long position in MSFT, the highest Power-Ranked stock in the QQQ.
See below how QQQ peaked 10 weeks after the DJI did in the year 2000. DIA
is being significantly held back by Boeing. I don't see that situation changing soon.
Hold DIA Short. Hold long MSFT, NUGT and GLD
For now the DJI has stayed beneath 27050, where its flat resistance-line crosses.
But if the DJI closes above 27050 and shows an IP21 above, say, +.05, I think
we will have to grant such a breakout the status of a judged Buy B10 and cover
the DIA shorts at a loss. But I believe we shouId require the DJI's IP21 to shift
(IP21 is our Tiger Accumulation Index.) into clearly positive territory, say, above
+.05. Immediately below is the DJI chart currently. Just below is the DJI
chart for 1995. I show the 1995 chart to let you see how important a confirmed
DJI breakout into all-time high territory above flat resistance is. The 1995 breakout
launched the take-off that became the very bullish 1995-2000 bull market. Once
prices move into all-time high territory, they can run more freely, as there are no
more resistance-levels based on past highs where sell orders can be congregated.
Powell's Testimony Today
I listened to most of Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in House of Representatives
today. When pressed, he finally let slip that his biggest concern is overseas economic
weakness. (Our composite foreign ETFs' chart has already turned up with some
conviction.) He also said that a US Debt crisis is many years away because the Dollar
is the reserve currency for much of the rest of the world. (He did not mention how strong
Gold and crypto-currencies have become). He assured us that he has all the tools he
needs to manage the next financial down-turn, which seems quite distant given how good
all his economic indicators look. (He did not address any signs that big money is selling
a lot of stock now or that some brokerages see a bear market not far ahead). And he
assured us that while there is mounting inequality, the Fed did not create it, there are
lots of new jobs and in any case the Fed is not in the business of picking winners and
losers. He seems oblivious to the Populist critique that argues the FED always places
a strong Dollar above low interest rates, especially on credit cards. He emphatically
did not want to make low-interest rate loans to state governments, like Michigan,
instead of big banks. Nor did he want to predict what would happen to the economy
if the tariff war with China continues or Congress boosts the minimum pay for the first
time in ten years. Powell has become, I conclude, a much better booster for stocks than
he was last Fall. I enjoyed listening, but I noted he seems to cough out of some nervousness.
I suspect the cough shows that he knows a lot more than he is saying! I will listen
tomorrow and see if his cough goes away.
Charts 7/10/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/10/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-10/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-10/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/10/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 268.69 .83 269.56 19.2% Bearish RED .015 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 352.3 -.79 354.47 -26.3% Bearish RED -.003 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 298.61 1.42 298.8 36.6% ------- BLUE .029 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 192.56 1.9 191.44 66.9% ------- BLUE .021 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.2 -.37 357.57 -2.2% Bearish RED .037 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.67 .27 156.26 16.7% Bearish RED .01 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.85 -.29 78.56 150.2% ------- RED .013 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 151.64 3.12 151.18 -64.6% Bearish RED -.157 -.188 (weakest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 171.13 3.85 170.36 122.9% ------- BLUE .042 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.53 -.31 110.93 -51.2% Bullish RED .075 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.83 2.08 133.63 15.9% Bullish BLUE .271 .095 (strongest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.09 .51 14.48 223.3% ------- BLUE .086 -.135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 24.12 .3 23.96 71.2% Bullish ---- .011 .108 (highest ITRS) Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190710 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 301 Bullish NEWLOWS 21 MAXCP 37 MINCP 20 TTTNH 19 TTTNL 47 FASTUP 50 FASTDOWN 59 CPCROSSA 61 CPCROSSD 161 Bearish plurality vs CPCROSSA BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 12 HIUPPCT 15 VHIP21 119 LOWACCUM 145 REDSELL 88 AUGSELS7 19 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/10/19 Bullish = 32 Bearish = 13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .96 .96 .97 .98 .99 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .851 .851 .888 .888 .888 .851 GOLD .843 .843 .823 .843 .882 .882 DOWJONES .827 .793 .827 .827 .862 .827 JETS .8 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 UTILITY .8 .8 .825 .775 .825 .75 NASD-100 .77 .76 .729 .77 .791 .75 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .846 .769 COMODITY .756 .56 .585 .609 .658 .634 MILITARY .75 .75 .75 .75 .714 .714 FOOD .74 .574 .592 .611 .666 .629 FIDSTKS .739 .722 .733 .75 .766 .722 SOLAR .722 .722 .777 .777 .777 .777 INDEXES .711 .679 .673 .722 .744 .701 SP500 .706 .706 .704 .733 .755 .706 HOMEBLDG .705 .647 .647 .647 .705 .588 SP-100 .681 .692 .692 .703 .725 .714 COMPUTER .666 .666 .714 .761 .761 .714 NIFTY .66 .625 .607 .642 .66 .66 HACKERS .65 .65 .5 .6 .6 .6 ETFS .649 .614 .614 .807 .877 .859 SOFTWARE .639 .606 .573 .639 .655 .606 REIT .635 .614 .567 .547 .547 .432 RUS-1000 .612 .621 .63 .661 .664 .612 FINANCE .59 .636 .613 .75 .659 .602 GREEN .59 .59 .59 .59 .545 .545 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .588 .647 .647 .588 INFRA .583 .638 .583 .666 .638 .611 SEMI .522 .513 .486 .531 .567 .585 HOSPITAL .521 .565 .521 .565 .565 .565 AUTO .512 .538 .589 .666 .692 .666 ================================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 GUNS .5 .5 .562 .562 .625 .562 INDMATER .5 .537 .55 .575 .575 .562 ================================================================================================ ELECTRON .474 .461 .442 .5 .532 .532 REGBANKS .464 .607 .571 .821 .678 .464 BIOTECH .446 .46 .427 .457 .468 .457 GAMING .434 .478 .521 .478 .565 .478 RETAIL .433 .415 .49 .452 .433 .396 TRANSP .4 .4 .6 .7 .75 .6 CHEM .396 .509 .528 .584 .603 .566 OILGAS .368 .277 .243 .256 .256 .243 CHINA .14 .175 .105 .245 .333 .315 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bearish = 10
====================================================================
7/9/2019 The operative Peerless Sell signals' history we now see in
our Peerless DJI charts is quite bearish. The 11 Summer Sells
S4s show a median decline of 10.5% at the time of their
reversal. Most had a maximum paper loss of less than 1%. Independent
Summer S12s show a median decline of 11.3%. (The Summer
Sell S12 and S4 results' tables are shown further below).
Conclusion: Hold short DIA and some of the stocks mentioned last night
and some of the bearish MINCPs short. Hold long GLD, NUGT and MSFT.
Stocks and ETFs that break below or are below their 65-dma at this time
seem especially vulnerable if Powell and the Federal Reserve
do not lower rates very soon. And even if they do drop the Federal Funds
Rate down to 2%, it may be seen as a sign of weakness in the general
US economy.
Until the NYSE A/D Line and the DJI's price uptrends
are broken, more sidewise trading could continue a while
longer. Patience is needed for now.
S12 S4
For now our Sells are battling a number of bullish factors, namely:
record corporate share-buy-backs, low interest rates, the bullish
seasonality of the Summer in the third year of the four year Presidential
cycle and the strong Dollar which draws overseas money into US bonds
and blue chips.
When we consider all these bullish factors, it is actually quite
surprising that we have any Sell signals, at all. But, of course
Peerless does not read the newspapers. Each day that
27000 is not taken, it becomes a more significant barrier and
clearly "big money" is doing a lot of selling into strength above
26000. That is the meaning behind the negative Accumulation
Index readings, the Sell S12s and the Sell S4.
Will this big money distribution on strength turn into a market
decline? It will, I think, if the price uptrends for the key indexes
are broken and 27050 is not closed above. And it will if the past
record of Summer "independent S12s", those with simultaneously
high P-I readings, plays out. And they will if the past Summer
Sell S4s have anything like their usual bearish meaning in 2019.
The SP-500 and NASDAQ have been
stronger than the DJI. These two indexes
will need to break their green price uptrends if
we are going to see a DJI drop to its lower
band.
Charts 7/9/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/9/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-09/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-09/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/9/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 267.86 -.2 267.66 16.6% Bearish BLUE -.027 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 353.09 1.97 354.16 -47.5% Bearish BLUE -.01 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 297.19 .37 296.43 25.7% Bearish BLUE -.008 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 190.66 .95 190.01 36.8% ------- BLUE -.018 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.57 .07 354.36 -10% Bearish BLUE .042 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.4 .21 155.15 -22.5% Bearish BLUE -.022 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.14 1.04 76.5 209.4% Bearish BLUE -.005 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.52 3.35 153.57 -387.7% Bearish BLUE -.106 -.206 (weakest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 167.28 1.62 167 45.6% ------- BLUE .014 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.84 1.1 109.65 -40.7% Bullish BLUE .041 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 131.75 .46 133.41 42.7% Bullish BLUE .225 .076 (Strongest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.58 -.06 14.44 -116.3% Bearish ---- .001 -.167 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.82 -.18 23.78 -12.6% ------- RED .043 .103 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190709 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 183 Bullish NEWLOWS 15 MAXCP 45 MINCP 12 TTTNH 27 TTTNL 33 FASTUP 41 FASTDOWN 58 CPCROSSA 123 CPCROSSD 59 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 11 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 120 LOWACCUM 141 REDSELL 88 AUGSELS7 18 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/9/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .961 .97 .98 .99 .951 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .851 .888 .888 .888 .851 .814 GOLD .843 .823 .843 .882 .882 .803 UTILITY .8 .825 .775 .825 .75 .7 DOWJONES .793 .827 .827 .862 .827 .758 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .846 .769 .769 NASD-100 .76 .729 .77 .791 .75 .75 MILITARY .75 .75 .75 .714 .714 .714 FIDSTKS .722 .733 .75 .766 .722 .744 SOLAR .722 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 SP500 .706 .704 .733 .755 .706 .716 JETS .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SP-100 .692 .692 .703 .725 .714 .703 INDEXES .677 .677 .725 .741 .704 .731 COMPUTER .666 .714 .761 .761 .714 .714 HACKERS .65 .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .647 .705 .588 .47 INFRA .638 .583 .666 .638 .611 .666 FINANCE .636 .613 .75 .659 .602 .727 NIFTY .625 .607 .642 .66 .66 .696 RUS-1000 .621 .63 .66 .665 .613 .61 ETFS .614 .614 .807 .877 .859 .824 REIT .614 .567 .547 .547 .445 .351 REGBANKS .607 .571 .821 .678 .464 .678 SOFTWARE .606 .573 .639 .655 .622 .573 GREEN .59 .59 .59 .545 .545 .545 FOOD .574 .592 .611 .666 .629 .629 HOSPITAL .565 .521 .565 .565 .565 .565 COMODITY .56 .585 .609 .658 .634 .609 AUTO .538 .589 .666 .692 .666 .666 INDMATER .537 .55 .575 .575 .562 .612 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .647 .647 .588 .529 SEMI .513 .486 .531 .567 .585 .648 CHEM .509 .528 .584 .603 .584 .603 Bullish = 35 ============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 GAMING .5 .545 .5 .59 .5 .545 GUNS .5 .562 .562 .625 .562 .562 ============================================================================================== ELECTRON .458 .439 .496 .528 .535 .598 BIOTECH .457 .427 .457 .468 .457 .476 RETAIL .415 .49 .452 .433 .377 .358 TRANSP .4 .6 .7 .75 .6 .7 OILGAS .279 .244 .258 .258 .244 .293 CHINA .175 .105 .245 .333 .315 .315 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 .142 Bearish = 7
One thing that needs more discussion is the technical battle now going
on between the rising NYSE A/D Line and the very positive P-Indicator
(21-dma of NYSE advances-declines) on the one hand and the
negative Accumulation Index (IP21). Tonight I show the track
record of the "independent Summer S12s.
Independent Summer Sell S12s: 1929-2019
(Those with very positive (breadth) P-I readings)
All eventually brought gains to short sellers:
+.083, +.136, +.055, +.127, +.172, +.054, +.113, +.017, +.135
5 of 9 brought a decline of more than 11%.
Median gain on short sale after Sell S12 was .113 (11.3%)
Paper losses:
None = 5 of 9 cases
but in 3 of 9 cases, the paper losses were between 3.2% and 6.4%,
The huge paper loss occurred when AROC was over 1.35 (135%). Ours in 2019
was not like this.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #1 Signal DJI GAIN Paper Loss 19320909 S12 76.2 .083 none 0 la/ma=1.054 AROC= 1.125 PI=85(-35) IP21=-.05 V=+189 OP=.098 19320913 B7 69.9 .023 65.1 -.0686 9/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #2 19330705 S12 102.2 .136 108.7 -.0636 7/18 ^^^^^^ la/ma=1.074 AROC= 1.352 PI=25(-20) IP21=-.064 V=-165 OP=.179 (very high) 19330719 S12 103.6 .144 none 0 la/ma=1.022 AROC= .907 PI=37(-65) IP21=-.146 V=-90 OP=.159 19330721 B5 88.7 .121 none 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #3 19380805 S12 144.5 .055 perfect - no paper loss la/ma=1.029 AROC= 0.595 PI=40(+10) IP21=-.024 V=+28 OP=.029 19380812 B7 136.5 .048 perfect 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #4 19780908 S12 907.74 .127 perfect - no paper loss la/ma=1.019 AROC= 0.216 PI=109(+6) IP21=-.062 V=+3 OP=.080 19780913 S1 899.6 .120 none 0 19781010 S9 891.63 .112 901.42 -.0109 10/11 19781113 B3 792.01 .106 785.26 -.0085 11/14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ #5 19810615 S12 1011.99 .172 perfect - no paper loss la/ma=1.021 AROC= 0.469 PI=146(+0) IP21=-.001 V=+3 OP=.013 19811009 S9 873.00 .04 none 0 19811023 B9 873.99 .04 830.96 -.0492 10/26 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #6 19970918 S12 7922.71 .054 8178.31 -.0322 10/7 ^^^^^^ la/ma=1.013 AROC= 0.007 PI=259(-33) IP21=-.001 V=0 OP=-.103 19970929 S12 7991.43 .062 8178.31 -.0233 10/7 la/ma=1.018 AROC= 0.451 PI=335(+27) IP21=-.017 V=+19 OP=-.063 19971028 B19 7598.32 .225 7381.67 -.0285 10/30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #7 20110705 S12 S9V 12569.87 .113 12724 -.01 la/ma=1.037 AROC= 0.412 PI=239(+57) IP21=-.034 V=-48 OP=.085 20110811 B14 11143.31 .037 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #8 20130910 S12 15191.06 .017 15676.9 -.0319 9/18 ^^^^^^ la/ma=1.012 AROC= 0.412 PI=239(+57) IP21=-.034 V=-48 OP=.085 20130920 S17 15451.09 .033 none 0 20131007 B9 14936.24 .105 14776.5 -.0106 10/8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #9 20150716 S12 18120.25 .135 none 0 la/ma=1.014 AROC= 0.144 PI=79(+18) IP21=-.193 V=-129 OP=.163 20150824 S13 15871.35 .013 16643.0 -.0486 8/28 20150825 B16 15666.44 .131 none 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #10 20190611 S12 26048.51 open 26966 (918/26048)=.029 la/ma=1.020 AROC= 0.049 PI=97(-42) IP21=-.016 V=-82 OP=.07 20190703 S4 26966.00 open --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Summer Sell S4s
Gains .409, .027, .365, .135. .222, .105, .053, .178 , 052, .095, .056
All 11 were profitable.
6 of 11 bought gains above 10.%
Median gain was 10.5%
Paper Losses
.0738, 0, .0182, .0172,.0171, .0113, .0029, .0054, none, none,.0022
1 of 11 brought a big paper loss. (In 1929)
6 of 11 saw a maximum paper loss of less than 1%
Sell 4s: 1929-2019
Date DJI Short Sale Max. Paper Loss
Gain
19290814 S4 354.9 .409 381.1 -.0738 9/3
(bull market - 1929 Crash about to occur)
--------------------------------------------------------------
19310707 S4 145.9 .027 none 0
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
--------------------------------------------------------------
19370803 S4 185.9 .365 189.3 -.0182
(bull market - 1937 Crash about to occur)
--------------------------------------------------------------
19380119 S4 130.1 .053 none 0
(bear market - not considered in calculations of results here.)
--------------------------------------------------------------
19401003 S4 135.1 .025 137.8 -.0199 11/17
(bull market - very timely because WWII about to start in earnest,)
Not Summer S4
--------------------------------------------------------------------
19410711 S4 127.9 .135 130.1 -.0172 7/28
(bull market - very timely because Pearl Harbor scenario coming on.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
19460611 S4 209.1 .22 210.6 -.0071 6/13
(bull market) (Considered a Summer S4)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
19470711 S4 184.8 .105 186.9 -.0113 7/24
(bull market)
19471022 S4 184.4 . 103 none 0
(bull market)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
19510917 S4 275.1 .053 275.9 -.0029 10/3
(bull market)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
19550922 S4 486.0 .092 487.5 -.003 9/23
(bull market - not Summer S4)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
19570711 S4 518 .178 520.8 -.0054 7/12
(bull market) (Sell before near-bear market started...)
------------------------------------------------------------------
19610518 S4 701.1 .014 none 0
(bull market) (Not Summer S4))
------------------------------------------------------------------
19660110 S4 985.41 .213 994.2 -.0089 1/18
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
19730109 S4 1047.11 .104 1051.70 -.0043 1/11
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
Not Summer S4)
------------------------------------------------------------------
19761222 S4 984.54 .051 1004.65 -.0204 12/31
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
Not Summer S4)
------------------------------------------------------------------
19800116 S4 865.19 .101 903.84 -.0446 2/13
(bull market) ( Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19810326 S4 1005.76 .032 1024.05 -.0181 4/27
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
( Not Summer S4)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
19831122 S4 1275.81 .031 1287.30 -.009 11/29
(bull market) Not Summer S4)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
19850208 S4 1289.97 .033 1299.36 -.0072 3/1
(bull market) ( Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19870826 S4 2701.85 .052 none 0
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19890209 S4 2323.04 .031 2324.82 -.0007 2/17
(bull market) ( Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19940203 S4 3967.66 .074 none 0
(bull market) ( Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19970207 S4 6855.8 .036 7085.16 -.0334 3/11
(bull market) ( Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20000111 S4 11511.08 .13 11722.9 -.0184 1/14
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20000906 S4 11310.64 .095 none 0
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20010517 S4 11248.58 .268 11301.7 -.0047 5/18
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20031015 S4 9803.05 .018 9858.46 -.0056 11/3
(bull market)
(Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20050308 S4 10912.47 .064 none 0
(bull market)
(Not Summer S4)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
20071005 S4 14066.01 .079 14164.5 -.007 10/9
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20080421 S4 12825.02 .112 13040.0 -.0167 5/1
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
20090105 S4 8952.89 .081 none 0
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
(Not Summer S4)
------------------------------------------------------------------
20090603 S4 8675.24 .041 8763.13 -.0101 6/5
(bull market) (Not Summer S4)
------------------------------------------------------------------
20120921 S4 13579.47 .056 13610.1 -.0022 10/5
(bull market)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
20170428 S4 20940.51 -.013 21206.2 -.0126 6/2
(bull market) (Not Summer S4)
====================================================================
7/8/2019 The operative automatic Peerless sells have been capped off with a
very bearish Sell S4.
What Is To Be Done?
Because of how often this signal leads to a DJI decline of more than
9% and often a bear market, we should do some selling in stocks that
drop below the support of their 65-dma, especially if their Accumulation
Index is negative. So, we have to sell YINN, even though a deal between
Trump and China would seem to be politically wise.
Second, I have suggested shorting DIA or SPY. This is simple and
relatively safe, especially if one is ready to cover the shorts if the
DJI breaks out with any conviction over 27000. When you graph
DIA, SPY or anything else, you have the ability using TigerSoft
to superimpose the Peerless signals on the graph and then under
"Operations", see what the trading results would be selling short
at the next day's opening following a recersin Peerless signal. Below
are the displays for DIA and SPY currently. The gains are modest
and the losses are small.
Gains for DIA shorting Peerless Reversing Sells
Another approach that usually works well is to go short FAS
(which represents 3x leveraged bank stocks). Over the years,
its moves correlate closely with the DJIA. This sharply increases
the potential gain, but raises the risk of a paper loss of 10%.
The ratio of gain to paper loss is still 4:1. That would seem
to make this option attractive.
Shorting SOXL (semi-conductors) because that is the weakest
ETF in Table 1 also might be undertaken now. But notice how
high the biggest paper loss is.
The best way to reduce the paper loss and still go short a high-potential
stock is to make a listing of the results from all the Peerless trades for each stock
in your chosen directory. This done from Operations and fourth item down
from main Tiger screen (Tiger menacing bull and bear). As a result of
looking at the Russell-1000 list, I came up with these ideas: BBBY and
RRC
Charts 7/8/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/8/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-08/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-08/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/8/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 268.06 -1.21 266.97 41.3% Bearish BLUE -.022 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 351.12 -4.74 356.46 -180.5% Bearish BLUE -.054 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 296.82 -1.64 295.66 64.4% Bearish RED -.015 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 189.71 -1.34 189.26 78.3% Bearish RED .002 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.5 -3.39 355.28 -1.3% Bearish RED 0 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.19 -1.49 156.1 -9.9% Bearish RED -.045 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.1 -.85 75.89 268.3% Bearish ---- -.056 .097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 145.17 -3.6 160.29 -102.3% Bearish BLUE -.106 -.248 (weakest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 165.66 -4.1 165.75 212.9% Bearish ---- .019 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.74 -1.48 109.73 -62% Bullish RED .019 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 131.29 -.85 130.62 -72% Bullish RED .204 .076 (strongest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.64 .02 14.92 -61.4% Bearish BLUE -.005 -.171 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 24 .15 23.88 77.7% Bullish BLUE .025 .103 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190708 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 114 Bullish ratio to new lows. NEWLOWS 14 MAXCP 19 But Professionals are chasing very few new highs. MINCP 19 TTTNH 11 TTTNL 41 Day Traders are bearish. FASTUP 47 FASTDOWN 61 Swing-traders are new bearish. CPCROSSA 42 CPCROSSD 159 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 12 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 84 AUGSELS7 23 TRAPDOOR 11 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/8/19 Bullish = 36 Bearosh = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .98 .99 .951 .961 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .851 .814 .814 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 DOWJONES .827 .827 .862 .827 .758 .724 UTILITY .825 .775 .825 .75 .7 .7 GOLD .823 .843 .882 .882 .823 .882 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .769 .769 .769 MILITARY .75 .75 .714 .714 .714 .714 FIDSTKS .733 .75 .766 .722 .739 .711 NASD-100 .729 .77 .791 .75 .75 .687 COMPUTER .714 .761 .761 .714 .714 .619 SP500 .704 .733 .756 .706 .713 .682 SP-100 .692 .703 .725 .714 .692 .67 INDEXES .673 .722 .744 .701 .728 .766 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .705 .588 .47 .588 RUS-1000 .631 .66 .664 .615 .611 .591 ETFS .614 .807 .877 .859 .824 .649 NIFTY .614 .649 .666 .666 .701 .596 FINANCE .613 .75 .659 .602 .738 .647 TRANSP .6 .7 .75 .6 .7 .7 FOOD .592 .611 .666 .629 .629 .666 GREEN .59 .59 .545 .545 .545 .545 AUTO .589 .666 .692 .666 .666 .692 BEVERAGE .588 .647 .647 .588 .529 .47 COMODITY .585 .609 .658 .634 .609 .658 INFRA .583 .666 .638 .611 .666 .694 SOFTWARE .58 .645 .661 .629 .58 .548 REGBANKS .571 .821 .678 .464 .678 .607 REIT .567 .547 .547 .445 .351 .371 GUNS .562 .562 .625 .562 .562 .562 INDMATER .55 .575 .575 .562 .612 .562 CHEM .528 .584 .603 .584 .603 .566 GAMING .521 .478 .565 .478 .521 .391 HOSPITAL .521 .565 .565 .565 .565 .521 Bullish = 36 ============================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 HACKERS .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 .45 ============================================================================================= RETAIL .49 .452 .433 .377 .358 .358 SEMI .486 .531 .567 .585 .648 .504 ELECTRON .442 .5 .532 .532 .602 .5 BIOTECH .424 .457 .468 .457 .473 .476 OILGAS .243 .256 .256 .243 .284 .284 CHINA .122 .245 .333 .315 .28 .157 COAL 0 0 0 0 .142 .142 Bearish = 7
=====================================================================
7/5/2019 The operative automatic Peerless sells have not been reversed. In fact,
Peerless gave a new Sell S4 on July 3rd, which we did not notice until
Friday when we updated using the data from Barrons, which was slightly
different than the Wall Street Journals for the third.
(Here are the two links I am now using:
http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary2.html
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?mod=md_subnav )
The past Sell S4s are very good at calling major tops. They occur because
the Accumulation Index drops below its 21-day ma. Add to your shorts
of DIA.
We are seeing a bigger flurry or burst of Peerless Sells than in any
Summer since 1929. Bearish Big money and Bullish Professionals are
fighting for control of the market. Meanwhile, interest rates are much
higher here than in Britain or Europe. That boosts the Dollar and causes
overseas money to keep boosting US bonds and blue chips. Trump keeps
complaining about the FED. Is that because he is afraid the market is
running out of steam? It's true the current bull market is old; there
has not been a 20% or more decline since March 2009. But the 1947-1961
bull market endured much longer and the 1990-2000 bull market was almost
as long-lived as ours now.
The biggest paper loss is a little over 2% on the earliest Sell in the current
cluster of Sells. In June 1929 and June 1987 the bigger paper losses reached
4.7% and 4.0% before a reversing Buy came in. We are in a bullish seasonal
period. That helps make the case for waiting for the NYSE A/D Line
uptrend to be broken before expecting a 10% decline from the DJI's peak.
I've done back over clusters of Peerless Sells that did not quickly bring
a decline. Waiting for the NYSE A/D Line to break its downtrend was
consistently a winning way to trade the short side in these cases. Since
there is still a good chance that the DJI will breakout over 27000 and
that will send most stocks higher, I would not yet go 100% on the short side
with the positive general market ETFs. If you study past charts, you will
see that there are more flat-top breakouts into all-time high territory than
reversals back down. See the weekly charts of DJI to get a sense of the
importance of flat-top breakouts when they do occur.
http://www.tigersoft.com/weekdji/charts.htm
At the same time, the repeated failure to breakout above the well-tested
resistance at 27000 would become quite bearish. We are at what is called
a "high inflection point".
Conclusion: Short more DIA but hold long MSFT, GLD, NUGT, YINN.
Sell S4s - IP21 drops below its 21-dma after rally.
Date DJI Short Sale Max. Paper Loss
Gain
19290814 S4 354.9 .409 381.1 -.0738 9/3
(bull market - 1929 Crash about to occur)
19310707 S4 145.9 .027 none 0
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19370803 S4 185.9 .365 189.3 -.0182
(bull market - 1937 Crash about to occur)
19380119 S4 130.1 .053 none 0
(bear market)
19401003 S4 135.1 .025 137.8 -.0199 11/17
(bull market - very timely because WWII about to start in earnest,)
19410711 S4 127.9 .135 130.1 -.0172 7/28
(bull market - very timely because Pearl Harbor scenario coming on.)
19460611 S4 209.1 .22 210.6 -.0071 6/13
(bull market)
19470711 S4 184.8 .105 186.9 -.0113 7/24
(bull market)
19471022 S4 184.4 . 103 none 0
(bull market)
19510917 S4 275.1 .053 275.9 -.0029 10/3
(bull market)
19550922 S4 486.0 .092 487.5 -.003 9/23
(bull market)
19570711 S4 518 .178 520.8 -.0054 7/12
(bull market) (Sell before near-bear market started...)
19610518 S4 701.1 .014 none 0
(bull market)
19660110 S4 985.41 .213 994.2 -.0089 1/18
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19730109 S4 1047.11 .104 1051.70 -.0043 1/11
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19761222 S4 984.54 .051 1004.65 -.0204 12/31
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19800116 S4 865.19 .101 903.84 -.0446 2/13
(bull market)
19810326 S4 1005.76 .032 1024.05 -.0181 4/27
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19831122 S4 1275.81 .031 1287.30 -.009 11/29
(bull market)
19850208 S4 1289.97 .033 1299.36 -.0072 3/1
(bull market)
19870826 S4 2701.85 .052 none 0
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
19890209 S4 2323.04 .031 2324.82 -.0007 2/17
(bull market)
19940203 S4 3967.66 .074 none 0
(bull market)
19970207 S4 6855.8 .036 7085.16 -.0334 3/11
(bull market)
20000111 S4 11511.08 .13 11722.9 -.0184 1/14
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20000906 S4 11310.64 .095 none 0
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20010517 S4 11248.58 .268 11301.7 -.0047 5/18
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20031015 S4 9803.05 .018 9858.46 -.0056 11/3
(bull market)
20050308 S4 10912.47 .064 none 0
(bull market)
20071005 S4 14066.01 .079 14164.5 -.007 10/9
(bull market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20080421 S4 12825.02 .112 13040.0 -.0167 5/1
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20090105 S4 8952.89 .081 none 0
(bear market) (Sell before bear market started...)
20090603 S4 8675.24 .041 8763.13 -.0101 6/5
(bull market)
20120921 S4 13579.47 .056 13610.1 -.0022 10/5
(bull market)
20170428 S4 20940.51 -.013 21206.2 -.0126 6/2
(bull market)
==============================================
ve Peerless
http://www.tigersoft.com/weekdji/charts.htm
Charts 7/5/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM TSLA
TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/5/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-05/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-05/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/5/2019Explanation: Pivot-point is price past which the ETF's 5-dma will change direction. 5-dmaAROC is the annualized rate of change of the ETF's 5-day moving average. Closing Power is bullish when it is above its rising 21-dma and it is bearish when it is below its 5-dma. Closing Power is the cumulative change from opening to close each day. Since it does not factor in changes at the opening, it tends to reflect NYSE professionals who trade the market when the NYSE is open. "Candle" color is blue when last close was above the opening, thus showing Professional net buying, which tends to be bullish. It is red when the close is below the opening, which tends to be bearish. IP21 is the current value of the Tiger Accumulation Index. Above +.15 tends to be bullish and below -.15 tends to be bearish until reversed. ITRS is the percent rise of the ETF over 50-days less the percent rise of the DIA (DJIA) over 50 trading days. The strongest ITRS ETFs tend to keep rising and the lowest ITRS ETFs tend to keep falling. Add ITRS and IP21 to get a composite measure of intermediate-term strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 269.27 -.29 265.85 77.1% ------- BLUE -.003 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 355.86 1.39 364.01 -113.8% Bearish BLUE -.033 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 298.46 -.34 293 117.9% ------- BLUE .023 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.05 -.39 186.74 120.5% Bullish BLUE .013 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.89 .32 354.59 112.5% Bearish BLUE .053 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.68 .42 155.5 98.2% Bearish BLUE -.01 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.95 .39 73.98 491.4% Bearish ---- -.03 .115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.77 -2.41 148.29 35.8% Bearish BLUE -.081 -.271 (weak) (3x) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 169.76 -.6 158.58 357.1% ------- BLUE .029 .004 (3x) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.22 -1.71 109.1 88.7% Bullish RED -.009 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 132.14 -1.49 133.2 -26.4% Bullish BLUE .22 .084 (strong) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.62 .14 14.82 34.2% Bearish BLUE .01 -.192 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.85 -.11 23.63 4.2% Bearish RED .034 .091 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190705 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 203 Bullish multiple of new lows NEWLOWS 4 MAXCP 25 Bullish multiple of MINCPs MINCP 6 TTTNH 9 TTTNL 19 Day Traders are net bearish. FASTUP 34 FASTDOWN 35 CPCROSSA 131 Professionals were new buyers on Friday. CPCROSSD 33 BIGVOLUP 3 Aggressive buying is low. BIGVODN 7 Dumping is low. HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 17 VHIP21 116 LOWACCUM 121 REDSELL 83 AUGSELS7 18 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/5/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .98 .99 .951 .961 .97 (Most bullish) INSURANC .888 .888 .851 .814 .814 .74 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .428 GOLD .843 .882 .882 .823 .862 .862 DOWJONES .827 .862 .827 .758 .724 .724 REGBANKS .821 .678 .464 .678 .607 .392 ETFS .807 .877 .859 .824 .649 .578 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .6 8 groups are rated most bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 UTILITY .775 .825 .75 .7 .675 .675 NASD-100 .77 .791 .75 .75 .687 .593 DJI-13 .769 .846 .769 .769 .769 .769 COMPUTER .761 .761 .714 .714 .619 .619 FIDSTKS .75 .766 .722 .739 .717 .63 FINANCE .75 .659 .602 .738 .659 .556 MILITARY .75 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 SP500 .733 .756 .706 .713 .68 .606 INDEXES .725 .747 .698 .731 .758 .677 SP-100 .703 .725 .714 .692 .67 .626 TRANSP .7 .75 .6 .7 .7 .35 AUTO .666 .692 .666 .666 .692 .615 INFRA .666 .638 .611 .666 .694 .611 RUS-1000 .66 .664 .614 .612 .592 .517 NIFTY .649 .666 .666 .701 .578 .561 BEVERAGE .647 .647 .588 .529 .529 .411 HOMEBLDG .647 .705 .588 .47 .588 .411 SOFTWARE .645 .661 .629 .58 .548 .435 FOOD .611 .666 .629 .629 .666 .685 COMODITY .609 .658 .634 .609 .658 .682 HACKERS .6 .6 .6 .5 .45 .35 GREEN .59 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 CHEM .584 .603 .584 .603 .584 .49 INDMATER .575 .575 .562 .612 .562 .512 HOSPITAL .565 .565 .565 .565 .521 .521 GUNS .562 .625 .562 .562 .562 .5 REIT .547 .547 .445 .351 .371 .29 SEMI .531 .567 .585 .648 .504 .477 ============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ELECTRON .5 .532 .532 .602 .5 .435 ============================================================================================== GAMING .478 .565 .478 .521 .391 .478 BIOTECH .454 .468 .457 .473 .471 .41 RETAIL .452 .433 .377 .358 .358 .339 OILGAS .258 .258 .244 .286 .286 .237 CHINA .245 .333 .315 .28 .157 .157 COAL 0 0 0 .142 .142 0 N=6
====================================================================
7/3/2019 Consider a close above 27000 to be a new Buy B10 ...
(flat topped breakout into all-time high territory) unless June Jobs'
Report is very weak or negative, which would be dangerous, as in
June-July 2007.
Note the new study below shows how the next 10 days is usually quite bullish
even when a Peerless signals occurs. I argue that this seasonality in the past has
outweighed even a new high with a negative IP21, a negative V-I reading or a
negative P-I. So, right now, the odds favor still higher prices. Cover the
token DIA short and go long SPY (which has a positive ITRS) if the
DJI closes above 27000.
Tonight I make the case for considering the DJI's new all-time high
on July 3rd and the 100-day new high on July 2nd to be breakout
Buy B10s. This would allow us to play the strength shown by the
DJI and SP-500 and the NYSE A/D Line in this bullish time of the
year, but it would mean applying the Buy B10 when the IP21 (current
Accumulation) remains stubbornly negative. The past B10s (shown
at http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/-Buy-B10.htm )
have never had a B10 with a negative IP21. To be more certain, I think
we have to wait for a close above 27000, the psychologically significant
resistance point.
Tomorrow we see the June Job's numbers. May's figure dropped sharply
from a year ago and April's this year. A strong June recovery would be
bullish, but a slippage by June's numbers into negative territory would be
reminiscent of June 2007 just before a significant market decline. See the
most recent numbers below. The number for May 2019 was only +75,000.
This was 195,000 below May 2018.
Monthly Jobs' Figures from Dept. of Labor in 1000's
(June's update wil be released tomorrow before the opening.)
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 -783 -742 -803 -694 -344 -465 -341 -184 -242 -198 12 -269 2010 3 -92 180 237 534 -136 -88 -5 -64 269 123 74 2011 20 213 232 321 95 235 61 122 236 204 132 204 2012 355 262 238 83 99 72 153 170 189 158 158 237 2013 195 279 136 192 224 181 105 242 189 225 267 67 2014 177 168 250 327 221 324 227 188 311 258 286 269 2015 213 248 77 300 319 170 293 122 133 339 235 280 2016 90 232 234 211 15 282 336 135 270 128 170 215 2017 252 141 127 213 128 229 204 187 18 260 220 174 2018 171 330 182 196 270 262 178 282 108 277 196 227 2019 312 56 153 224(P) 75(P) P : preliminary
Tonight I make the case for a new Buy B10 that disregards a slightly
negative IP21 (current Accumulation). Such a Buy B10 occurs when the
DJI makes a closing new high, the P-I and the V-I are positive and the IP21 is
above -.01 in the bullish period June 26th to July 10th in bull markets. To
be a little more confident, I think we should add the requirement that the
DJI close above the round number 27,000.
The DJI made a marginal all-time closing high on July 3rd. It is close to
decisively breaking above a flat resistance area into all-time high ground.
This is potentially very bullish. Being short DIA is not recommended. But
is it safe to buy DIA or SPY which made an all-time high two days in a row?
The answer is "NO" if you judge the situation by weighting more heavily
the still negative IP21.
The answer is "YES" if you go by the rising A/D Line, the very positive
P-Indicator and the rising and positive V-Indicator. It is also "YES" if you
weight seasonality heavily in your decision. After July 4th, the DJI has risen
75% of the time over the next 10, 21 and 42 trading days and gained +1.6%,
+2.1% and +4.2% over the same periods, respectively.
Even more significant is how bullish the period from June 26th to July 15th is
even when Peerless has given a Sell signal. Below are the cases of early July
Sells. Look at the size of the paper losses and see how often it was better
to wait to sell until July 15th or later. There were only only 13 Peerless Sells
from July 1 to July 14 in bull markets in the 90 years since 1929. Four closely
called a top, but in 9 instances it would have been better to wait until at least
July 15th to sell.
Given the matching new all-time highs by the DJI and the SP-500,
the positive P-I, V-I, rising A/D line and the bullish seasonality until
the 15th of July, at least, I suggest buying SPY and closing out the
token short in DIA if 27000 if closed above. I would then consider
the operative Peerless signal to be a Buy B10, a breakout into new
all-tiime high territory. I would close out shorts if their Closing Power
downtrends are broken and consider buying some of the bullish MAXCPs.
Bull Market July Sells
Date Peerless Signal Result
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19330705 S12 DJI rose from 102.7 to 108.7 on 7/18..
A S12 on 7/19 was more timely.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19470711 S4 DJI rose from 184.8 to 186.9 on 7/24.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19570708 S9 DJI rose from 518.4 to 520.8 on 7/12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19570708 S9 DJI rose from 518.4 to 520.8 on 7/12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19590701 S9 DJI rose from 650.2 to 678.1 on 8/3,
where a more timely S9 occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19680711 S7 This was peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19820712 S12 This was peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19900712 S9 More timely S9 on 7/19 at about same price.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19980701 S12 DJI rose from 9048.67 to 9337.97 on 7/17
There was a more timely S12 on 7/8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19990706 S9 DJI rose from 11135.12 to 11193.69 on 7/9,
where a more timely S9 occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20070713 S9 DJI rose from 13907.25 to 14000.41 on 7/19,
where a more timely S9 occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20110705 S9 DJI rose from 12569.87 to 12724.41 on 7/21,
where a more timely S9V occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20130711 S9 DJI rose from 15460.92 to 15484.26 on 7/15,
where a more timely S5 occurred.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 7/3/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA PG QCOM
TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/3/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-03/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-03/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/3/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 269.56 1.9 265.15 81.5% ------- BLUE .01 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.47 .31 364.02 -282.2% Bearish --- -.056 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 298.8 2.37 291.5 142% Bearish BLUE .039 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.44 1.43 186.5 150.5% ------- BLUE .025 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.57 3.21 349.92 172.8% Bearish BLUE .046 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.26 1.11 153.63 177% Bearish BLUE -.026 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.56 2.06 71.55 591.4% ------- BLUE 0 .111 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 151.18 -2.39 147.68 324.1% Bearish RED -.115 -.236 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 170.36 3.36 158.05 417.7% Bearish BLUE .039 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.93 1.28 107.28 235.9% Bullish BLUE .083 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.63 .22 132.84 24.9% Bullish ---- .162 .101 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.48 .04 14.52 -37.5% Bearish ---- -.031 -.231 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.96 .18 23.83 27.3% Bearish BLUE .031 .079 ^^^^^ Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190703 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 440 Bulliah NEWLOWS 16 MAXCP 22 MINCP 26 Bearish TTTNH 15 TTTNL 31 FASTUP 49 FASTDOWN 59 CPCROSSA 138 CPCROSSD 30 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 17 LOWACCUM 109 REDSELL 81 AUGSELS7 20 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/3/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .99 .951 .961 .97 .932 INSURANC .888 .851 .814 .814 .777 .74 GOLD .882 .882 .823 .862 .862 .882 ETFS .877 .859 .824 .649 .578 .526 DOWJONES .862 .827 .758 .724 .724 .689 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .428 .285 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 UTILITY .825 .75 .7 .675 .675 .7 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .6 .5 NASD-100 .791 .75 .75 .687 .593 .572 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 FIDSTKS .766 .722 .739 .717 .63 .619 COMPUTER .761 .714 .714 .619 .619 .619 SP500 .756 .706 .713 .68 .608 .579 TRANSP .75 .6 .7 .7 .35 .25 INDEXES .741 .698 .731 .758 .688 .612 SP-100 .725 .714 .692 .67 .626 .637 MILITARY .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .642 HOMEBLDG .705 .588 .47 .588 .411 .294 AUTO .692 .666 .666 .692 .615 .538 REGBANKS .678 .464 .678 .607 .392 .25 SOFTWARE .672 .639 .59 .557 .442 .409 FOOD .666 .629 .629 .666 .685 .629 NIFTY .666 .666 .701 .578 .561 .543 RUS-1000 .664 .614 .611 .594 .521 .486 FINANCE .659 .602 .738 .659 .568 .477 COMODITY .658 .634 .609 .658 .682 .634 BEVERAGE .647 .588 .529 .529 .411 .47 INFRA .638 .611 .666 .694 .611 .583 GUNS .625 .562 .562 .562 .5 .437 CHEM .615 .596 .615 .596 .519 .423 HACKERS .6 .6 .5 .45 .35 .3 INDMATER .575 .562 .612 .562 .512 .475 SEMI .567 .585 .648 .504 .477 .432 GAMING .565 .478 .521 .391 .478 .434 HOSPITAL .565 .565 .565 .521 .521 .478 REIT .547 .445 .351 .371 .29 .25 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 ELECTRON .529 .529 .6 .496 .438 .406 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .333 =========================================================================================== BIOTECH .465 .457 .473 .471 .402 .345 RETAIL .433 .377 .358 .358 .339 .283 CHINA .333 .315 .28 .157 .157 .105 OILGAS .258 .244 .286 .286 .237 .258 COAL 0 0 .142 .142 0 0
========================================================================
7/2/2019 The operative Peerless Sells have not been reversed. But I have suggested
only small or token DIA short sale positions. Better, I said was to pick some
bearish MINCPs to short and then to be long GLD, NUGT, some other golds,
YINN (representing China) and MSFT (the strongest tech stock in the DJI.
The main reason we have taken only a token short position in DIA is because
June S9s/S12s can bring losses on the first Sell S9 or S12 of more than 4%.
See the table of June S9s/S12s below. The June 1929 and June 1987 cases stand
out. They brought losses of more than 4% and then were followed by sizeable rises
in the market which could have been captured if the subsequent Buy B4 was used.
We must watch the DJI closely now for signs of an impending breakout above
the flat resistance at 27000 which would likely bring quick rises in the P-Indicator
or IP21 that could bring a Buy B4 or Buy B10. Note in the second table below
that July S9/S12s are quite reliable. None have brought losses when waiting for
a Peerless Buy signal to cover the short sales on the DJIA. But it looks like that
all three of our key indicators, P-I, IP21 and V-I may be positive. Wait and see
about that.
Meanwhile big money and Professionals are busy taking profits as the old
highs are being reached. We see this in the still negative IP21, the lagging
closing Powers and the red candle-stick charts, whose red color results from
closes below an opening.
Besides the two big losses (1929 and 1987) in June with S9s/S12s, there are several
other considerations that justify our waiting to go short DIA on the the current
Sells. We should delay, I think, because:
:
2) of how the DJI is drawn to the roof of its flat resistance
even when there are Peerless Sells lows and often will breakout above
flat resistance. (See the weekly charts of this a few nights ago).
3) of how very low interest rates make dividend stocks extra attractive.
And it is these defensive and dividend stocks that are letting the NYSE A/D Line
keep rising. Of course, if these dividend and blue chips stocks should fail to
maintain their upward momentum, which I discussed last night, then the market
would be without its leaders and would likely then fall back.
Past June S9-S9Vs/S12s
Date Signal DJI Result when reversed.
Gain Biggest Paper Loss
19290614 S9 313.7 -.047 328.6 -.0474 6/26
19290617 S12 319.3 -.029 328.6 -.0291 6/26
19290626 B4 328.6 .075 none 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19340620 S9 98.3 .073 none 0
19340817 B20 91.1 .016 90.4 -.0076 8/20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19700617 S9 704.68 .05 716.11 -.0162 6/22
19700707 B2 669.36 .063 perfect 0
(Bear Market)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19740607 S9 853.72 .271 859.67 -.0069 6/10
19740607 S12 853.72 .271 859.67 -.0069 6/10
19740611 S9 852.08 .270 none 0
19740807 S12 797.56 .220 none 0
19740823 S13 686.8 .094 none 0
19740927 B8 621.95 .053 584.56 -.0601 10/4
(Bear Market)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19770621 S9 928.60 .131 929.70 -.0011 6/24
19771206 B9 806.91 -.017 793.49 -.0166 1/7
(Bear Market)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19810615 S12 1011.99 .172 perfect 0
19811009 S9 873.00 .04 none 0
19811023 B9 873.99 .04 830.96 -.0492 10/26
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19870608 S12 2351.64 -.04 2445.51 -.0399 6/22
19870609 S9 2352.7 -.039 2445.51 -.0394 6/22
19870610 S8 2353.61 -.039 2445.51 -.039 6/22
19870618 S8 2408.13 -.016 2445.51 -.0155 6/22
19870622 B4 2445.51 .105 2409.76 -.0146 7/1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19980701 S12 9048.67 .157 9337.97 -.0319 7/17
19980701 S9 9048.67 .157 9337.97 -.0319 7/17
19980708 S9 9174.97 .168 9337.97 -.0177 7/17
19980708 S12 9174.97 .168 9337.97 -.0177 7/17
19980904 S10 8487.31 .101
19980923 S9 8154.41 .064 none 0
19981001 B9 7632.53 .437 perfect 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19990630 S9 10970.80 .029 11209.8 -.0217 7/16
19990706 S5 11135.12 .043 11209.8 -.0067 7/16
19990709 S9 11193.69 .105 11209.8 -.0014 7/16
19990730 B2 10655.14 .043 10645.9 -.0008 8/2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20040607 S9 10391.81 .058 10479.5 -.0084 6/23
20040726 B2 9961.92 .033 9814.66 -.0147 8/9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20090603 S9 8675.24 .041 8763.13 -.0101 6/5
20090608 S8 8764.49 .053 none 0
20090608 S5 8764.49 .053 none 0
20090610 S9 8739.02 .050 none 0
20090624 B5 8299.86 .237 perfect 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20190611 S12 26048.51 ..... open
20190618 S9 26465.54
20190625 S12 26548.22All 13 of the S9s/S12s in July would have brought gains.
Past July S9s/S12s
Date Signal DJI Result when reversed.
Gain Biggest Paper Loss
19570705 S9 516.9 .176 520.8 -.0075 7/12
19570711 S4 518 .178 520.8 -.0054 7/12
19570712 S7 520.8 .183 none 0
19570814 S10 485.9 .124 488.2 -.0047 8/16
19571217 B13 425.7 .527 perfect 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19620705 S9 583.9 .009 615.5 -.0541 8/22
19620710 S12 586 .012 615.5 -.0503 8/22
19620716 S9 588.1 .016 615.5 -.0465 8/22
19621004 B1 582.4 .683 558.0 -.0418 10/23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19700715 S9 711.66 .006 735.56 -.0335 7/29
19700720 S12 733.91 .036 735.56 -.0022 7/29
19700723 S9 732.68 .035 735.56 -.0039 7/29
19700813 B2 707.35 .325 perfect 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19730711 S9 908.19 .028 934.53 -.029 7/26
19730813 B17 883.20 .028 851.90 -.0354 8/22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19820712 S9 824.87 .058 833.43 -.0103 7/20
19820811 B8 777.21 .194 766.92 -.0132 8/12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19830726 S9 1243.69 .065 perfect 0
19830808 B2 1163.06 .097 perfect 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19990709 S9 11193.69 .105 11209.8 -.0014 7/16
19990730 B2 10655.14 .043 10645.9 -.0008 8/2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20070713 S9 13907.25 .044 14000.4 -.0066 7/19
20070716 S5 13950.98 .047 14000.4 -.0035 7/19
20070723 S9 13943.42 .047 none 0
20070829 B14 13289.29 .040 13113.3 -.0132 9/17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20080723 S9 11632.38 .061 11782.3 -.0128 8/11
20080730 S9 11583.69 .058 11782.3 -.0171 8/11
20080808 S9 11734.32 .07 11782.3 -.004 8/11
20080915 B8 10917.51 .009 10609.6 -.0281 9/17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20100726 S9 10542.43 .026 10698.7 -.0148 8/9
20100809 S9 10698.75 .04 none 0
20100819 B17 10271.21 .247 9985.81 -.0277 8/26
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20110705 S9 12569.87 .086 12724.4 -.0122 7/21
20110721 S9 12724.41 .098 none 0
20110815 B14 11482.9 .007 10817.6 -.0579 8/19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20130711 S9 15460.92 .032 15658.3 -.0127 8/2
20130712 S8 15464.30 .032 15658.3 -.0125 8/2
20130715 S5 15484.26 .034 15658.3 -.0112 8/2
20130822 B19 14963.74 .015 14776.1 -.0125 8/27
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20150716 S12 18120.25 .135 none 0
20150824 S13 15871.35 .013 16643.0 -.0486 8/28
20150825 B16 15666.44 .131 none 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 7/2/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/2/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-02/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-02/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/2/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 267.66 .69 265.22 45.2% ------- BLUE .046 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.16 -2.3 374.94 -207.2% ------- RED -.058 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 296.43 .77 290.47 97% ------- BLUE .062 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 190.01 .75 185.79 136.1% ------- BLUE .071 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.36 -.92 345.41 119.1% Bearish RED .057 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.15 -.95 150.8 130.3% Bearish RED .005 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 76.5 .61 69.86 387.2% ------- BLUE-.002 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.61 -.48 22.81 243.3% Bearish RED -.05 -.176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 153.57 -6.72 141.44 834.9% Bearish RED -.018 -.198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 167 1.25 156.89 473% ------- BLUE .075 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.65 -.08 105.82 128.1% Bullish RED .1 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.41 2.79 132.97 -29.8% Bullish BLUE .175 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.44 -.48 14.59 68.4% Bearish RED -.039 -.229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.78 -.1 23.83 48.4% Bearish RED .03 .073 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190702 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 266 Bullish NEWLOWS 26 MAXCP 25 low for number of new highs, MINCP 53 Bearish compared to number of MAXCPs TTTNH 14 TTTNL 51 Bearish FASTUP 68 FASTDOWN 37 CPCROSSA 97 CPCROSSD 87 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 9 Bearish ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 12 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 149 REDSELL 80 AUGSELS7 23 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/2/19 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .951 .961 .97 .922 .941 GOLD .882 .823 .862 .862 .882 .862 ETFS .859 .824 .649 .578 .526 .403 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .428 .285 .285 INSURANC .851 .814 .814 .777 .74 .777 DOWJONES .827 .758 .724 .724 .689 .724 JETS .8 .8 .8 .6 .5 .5 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 NASD-100 .75 .75 .687 .593 .572 .583 UTILITY .75 .7 .675 .675 .7 .8 FIDSTKS .722 .739 .717 .63 .614 .586 COMPUTER .714 .714 .619 .619 .619 .476 MILITARY .714 .714 .714 .714 .642 .678 SP-100 .714 .692 .67 .626 .637 .626 SP500 .706 .713 .68 .608 .577 .604 INDEXES .702 .729 .762 .691 .616 .583 AUTO .666 .666 .692 .615 .538 .512 NIFTY .666 .701 .578 .561 .543 .508 COMODITY .634 .609 .658 .682 .634 .634 FOOD .629 .629 .666 .685 .629 .629 SOFTWARE .629 .58 .548 .435 .403 .387 RUS-1000 .614 .611 .592 .522 .486 .517 INFRA .611 .666 .694 .611 .555 .5 FINANCE .602 .738 .659 .568 .477 .431 HACKERS .6 .5 .45 .35 .3 .2 TRANSP .6 .7 .7 .35 .25 .25 SEMI .59 .654 .509 .481 .436 .381 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .411 .47 .47 HOMEBLDG .588 .47 .588 .411 .294 .411 CHEM .584 .603 .584 .509 .433 .433 HOSPITAL .565 .565 .521 .521 .478 .434 GUNS .562 .562 .562 .5 .437 .562 INDMATER .562 .612 .562 .512 .475 .437 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 ELECTRON .532 .608 .5 .435 .403 .358 N= 36 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .333 .333 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAMING .478 .521 .391 .478 .434 .434 REGBANKS .464 .678 .607 .392 .285 .214 BIOTECH .454 .471 .473 .402 .345 .367 REIT .445 .351 .371 .29 .25 .418 RETAIL .377 .358 .358 .339 .283 .301 CHINA .315 .28 .157 .157 .105 .087 OILGAS .243 .284 .284 .236 .25 .222 COAL 0 .142 .142 0 0 0 N=8
====================================================================
7/1/2019 The Sell S12 still rules, since the DJI did not breakout above 27000.
Abide by the rising A/D Line and avoid shorting more DIA until the
A/D Line uptrend is broken. But deciding what to buy is a problem,
Normally, the DJI rises in July. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 67.3% of the
time and gains on average 1.2% over the 21 trading days following July 1.
It then gains 2.3% over the next 42 trading days and 3.3% over the next 65
trading days. Taking just the third years before a Presidential Election, the
probability of the DJI being up over these periods of time rises to 75% and the
average gains are 2.1%, 4.2% and 6.0% over a month, two months and three
months, respectively.
So then, why are the big boys still net sellers, based on our Accumulation Index (IP21)
standing now at -.02 for the DJI? Perhaps, they are sellers at this time of the
year for seasonal reasons? Perhaps, they like to go on vacation and sell some
shares at this time. In any case, about 25% of the new highs now show negative IP21s.
This is not good. The IP21 is now -.028 for the Peerless DJI and for the QQQ
-.027. The SP-500's IP21 is only +.01 and it just made a new all-time high.
And why are Professionls, judging from our Closing Power numbers as a percentage
of the stocks making new highs, not more willing to chase? I reckon less than
20% of the stocks making new highs show Closing Powers near to or at a new highs.
(By our calculations tonight, there were 46 new closing highs and 225 new highs.)
Without Professionas and the "the big boys" (as measured by the Accumulation Index)
more aggressive, how much higher can the market go? It does seem to come down
to interest rates? Perhaps, they will be formally lowered by the FED when the Jobs'
numbers for June come ouy on Friday.
In this environment should you commit much money to the long side? I can only
conclude it's probably a lot riskier than usual chasing the dividend stocks and bond
funds that the market now favors. My suggestion: either draw the price-uptrendlines
and sell if the stocks break them or watch their 5-day ma pivot points and sell when they
close below the pivot point. Consider PG and the DJ-15 Utilities now. They both
show potential head/shoulders developing, broken Closing Power uptrends and falling
5-day ma. So, traders should be sellers of them.
Will a new groups of stocks emerge as leaders? I'm not sure which stocks they will be. Perhaps, solar energy? The SP-500 made a new high today, but only 37 of these 500
stocks made new highs. Another cautionary sign: 28.7% of the SP-500 stocks are still
below the key support of their 65-dma. This compares with the 30% number when the
SP-500 was reaching its peak at the end of September before it fell 20% last year.
We need more evidence that it's safe to buy despite the bullish seasonality.
Use the Charts below tonight.
Charts 7/1/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
7/1/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jul-01/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jul-01/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 7/1/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 266.97 1.12 265.26 -3.8% ------- RED .018 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 356.46 -7.55 369.32 -237.4% ------- RED .01 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 295.66 2.66 290.76 34.6% Bearish RED .01 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 189.26 2.52 184.93 29.5% Bearish RED -.027 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.28 .69 346.02 105.7% ------- RED .074 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.1 .6 151.15 131.7% Bearish RED .014 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.89 1.91 70.89 230.6% ------- --- -.017 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 160.29 12 129.29 892.9% Bearish RED -.038 -.158 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 165.75 7.17 152.03 152.6% Bearish RED .002 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.73 .63 106.89 121.7% Bullish RED .07 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 130.62 -2.58 134.2 -124.4% ------- RED .171 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.92 .1 14.24 238.3% Bearish RED .013 -.177 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.88 .25 23.55 16.9% Bearish RED .027 .094 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190701 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 225 (Bullish number and nh/nl ratio is bullish._ NEWLOWS 9 MAXCP 46 Professionals are not chasing most new highs. MINCP 8 TTTNH 38 TTTNL 17 FASTUP 97 Most new highs are not advancing rapidly. FASTDOWN 60 CPCROSSA 278 CPCROSSD 43 BIGVOLUP 35 BIGVODN 50 Dumping going on. ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 22 HIUPPCT 12 LOWACCUM 201 REDSELL 91 AUGSELS7 19 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 7/1/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .961 .97 .922 .941 .961 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .428 .285 .285 .428 ETFS .824 .649 .578 .526 .403 .561 GOLD .823 .862 .862 .882 .862 .882 INSURANC .814 .814 .777 .74 .777 .851 JETS .8 .8 .6 .5 .5 .5 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .769 .846 DOWJONES .758 .724 .724 .689 .724 .793 NASD-100 .75 .687 .593 .572 .572 .645 FIDSTKS .739 .717 .63 .614 .586 .63 FINANCE .738 .659 .568 .477 .443 .454 INDEXES .733 .766 .695 .619 .586 .619 COMPUTER .714 .619 .619 .619 .476 .523 MILITARY .714 .714 .714 .642 .678 .714 SP500 .713 .68 .608 .577 .604 .635 NIFTY .701 .578 .561 .543 .491 .578 UTILITY .7 .675 .675 .7 .8 .8 TRANSP .7 .7 .35 .25 .25 .3 SP-100 .692 .67 .626 .637 .637 .659 REGBANKS .678 .607 .392 .285 .25 .214 AUTO .666 .692 .615 .538 .512 .512 INFRA .666 .694 .611 .555 .527 .555 SEMI .648 .504 .477 .432 .387 .414 FOOD .629 .666 .685 .629 .611 .574 INDMATER .612 .562 .512 .475 .45 .425 RUS-1000 .61 .591 .521 .488 .518 .545 COMODITY .609 .658 .682 .634 .609 .585 CHEM .603 .584 .509 .433 .452 .433 ELECTRON .602 .493 .435 .403 .365 .384 SOFTWARE .58 .548 .435 .403 .37 .516 HOSPITAL .565 .521 .521 .478 .434 .391 GUNS .562 .562 .5 .437 .562 .687 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .411 .47 .47 .47 GAMING .521 .391 .478 .434 .434 .434 N=36 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .333 .333 .333 HACKERS .5 .45 .35 .3 .2 .35 ============================================================================================ HOMEBLDG .47 .588 .411 .294 .411 .529 BIOTECH .468 .473 .402 .345 .361 .342 RETAIL .358 .358 .339 .283 .301 .32 REIT .351 .371 .29 .25 .425 .5 OILGAS .284 .284 .236 .25 .215 .201 CHINA .28 .157 .157 .105 .087 .122 COAL .142 .142 0 0 0 .142 N=7 =============================================================================================
=====================================================================|
6/28/2019 A truce in the trade war with China is one of the things the market needs
to breakout over 27000. Another is a cut by interest rates in the FED.
With the interest on 10-year notes falling to only 2%, stocks are made
to look much more attractive, especially if they can rise 2% just on Monday.
Treat a DJI breakout over 27000 as being very bullish as long as the NYSE
A/D Line is rising.
Peerless know nothing of this news, but it does factor in the bullishness of the
third year in a Presidential Election. And so should we. A breakout above
27000 would have be considered quite bullish given how well flat top breakouts
in the past have worked. I produced a number of historic 5-year breakout-charts
below to demonstrate this.
Of course, this is now a much more speculative market. If interest rates were
to go back up, it would be bad news for all the defensive stocks that are
being boosted by the quick fall in interest rates. Another sign of the speculative
juices that are surging now is how Openings are becoming more important than Closes
in moving the short-term. In additon, the DJI has a broadening pattern in the weekly
chart shown below. It's really quite surprising, but the main object of all
this speculation is the group of normally safe blue-chip dividend stocks.
Imagine a bull market led by PG and MCD!
I think that the market can go considerably higher if the breadth of the rally expands.
So, as long as the NYSE A/D Line is rising, do not sell short. This is the 1976
and 2002 scenario. Many Democrats do not trust the Trump bull market. They
can hardly believe it. And certainly, the perma-bears won't easily admit it, but the
trend is up and even the heavy selling by "big money" as the old highs have been
reached is not enough to hold the market back.
So, there's no point in being short DIA, unless it is a token position to honor the
Sell S12. Note that the V-Indicator has turned positive. It is not to late to buy if
the market can catch more public participation. Buy some of the middle-sized
stocks that have recently jumped back above their 65-dma and have positive IP21
readings. Some examples are ALE, AMPH, ATUS, CLH, CORE, CPF, EGP,
FGEN and FRME.
Charts 6/28/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/28/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-28/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-28/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/28/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.85 .7 267.17 -23.5% ------- RED -.036 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 364.01 -.01 373.99 -105.6% ------- BLUE .013 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 293 1.5 293.64 -17.1% ------- BLUE-.05 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 186.74 .24 188.16 -49% Bearish RED -.073 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.59 4.67 347.91 55.7% Bullish BLUE .084 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.5 1.87 152.08 50.9% ------- BLUE .017 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.98 2.43 72.58 35.6% ------- BLUE-.046 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.06 .36 22.98 -23.7% ------- BLUE .163 -.221 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.29 .61 135.22 507.3% Bearish RED -.056 -.22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 158.58 .53 160.95 -47% Bearish RED -.037 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.1 1.82 107.12 -16.3% Bullish BLUE .033 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.2 .36 133.94 45.8% Bullish BLUE .282 .102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.82 .3 14.23 124.9% Bearish BLUE .05 -.193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.63 -.2 23.8 -6.3% ------- RED .053 .079 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190628 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 225 NEWLOWS 9 (low) MAXCP 46 MINCP 8 TTTNH 38 TTTNL 16 FASTUP 97 FASTDOWN 60 CPCROSSA 278 CPCROSSD 43 BIGVOLUP 35 BIGVODN 50 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 22 HIUPPCT 12 LOWACCUM 201 REDSELL 91 AUGSELS7 19 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/28/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .922 .941 .97 .961 GOLD .862 .862 .882 .862 .882 .803 BIGBANKS .857 .428 .285 .285 .428 .428 INSURANC .814 .777 .74 .777 .851 .888 JETS .8 .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .769 .846 .769 INDEXES .763 .693 .612 .58 .618 .677 DOWJONES .724 .724 .689 .724 .793 .758 MILITARY .724 .724 .655 .689 .724 .689 FIDSTKS .717 .63 .614 .586 .641 .673 TRANSP .7 .35 .25 .25 .3 .45 INFRA .694 .611 .555 .527 .555 .555 AUTO .692 .615 .538 .512 .512 .538 NASD-100 .687 .593 .572 .572 .635 .656 SP500 .68 .609 .578 .605 .64 .66 UTILITY .675 .675 .7 .8 .8 .825 SP-100 .67 .626 .637 .637 .67 .681 FOOD .666 .685 .629 .611 .574 .574 FINANCE .659 .568 .477 .443 .477 .5 COMODITY .658 .682 .634 .609 .585 .585 ETFS .649 .578 .526 .403 .561 .526 COMPUTER .619 .619 .619 .476 .523 .523 REGBANKS .607 .392 .285 .25 .25 .285 RUS-1000 .592 .521 .487 .52 .548 .58 GUNS .588 .529 .47 .588 .705 .588 HOMEBLDG .588 .411 .294 .411 .529 .529 CHEM .584 .509 .433 .452 .471 .452 NIFTY .578 .561 .543 .491 .578 .578 INDMATER .562 .512 .475 .45 .425 .487 SOFTWARE .548 .435 .403 .37 .516 .532 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 BEVERAGE .529 .411 .47 .47 .47 .47 HOSPITAL .521 .521 .478 .434 .391 .434 SEMI .504 .477 .432 .387 .423 .441 N=35 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .333 .333 .333 .5 =============================================================================================== ELECTRON .496 .433 .401 .363 .388 .407 BIOTECH .471 .402 .345 .361 .339 .41 HACKERS .45 .35 .3 .2 .35 .4 GAMING .391 .478 .434 .434 .434 .391 REIT .371 .29 .25 .425 .5 .56 RETAIL .358 .339 .283 .301 .32 .339 OILGAS .284 .236 .25 .215 .208 .243 CHINA .157 .157 .105 .087 .122 .122 COAL .142 0 0 0 .142 .142 N=9
========================================================================
6/27/2019 The Peerless S9Vs and S12s on the DJI stand despite today's good breadth. There
were a whopping 1298 more up than down on the NYSE and IWM (Russell 2000)
climbed back above its 65-dma, despite the DJI's small loss, which was primarily due
to high priced BA's 10.92 decline. A short-term seasonal rally should be expected.
But after that, the DJI should still fall back to the to the lower band and honor
our S9-V and S12. But it looks like this will not happen in the next week. Remember
that the DJI tends to be up around the July 4th holiday. Moreover, if the NYSE A/D
Line makes a new high, it would be best not to short any more DIA or even IWM
(which has a weaker relative strength and lower IP21 than the DJI) until the NYSE
A/D Line breaks its uptrend. See further below how well this strategy worked in 1976
when, like now, the DJI could not get past a round number (1000) but also would
not turn down until the strong A/D Line (like now) broke its uptrend.
For bears, the good news is that 56% of all stocks are now below their 65-dma and
the Closing Powers of all the major market ETFs have been broken. Professionals
are in new selling mode. So, higher openings are apt to be blunted by big-money selling
on strength. That should limit the advance unless there is a US-China "deal" or
the FED lowers rates by one quarter percent or more.
So, stay short DIA, some bearish MINCPs and long GLD, NUGT, BA and YINN.
1976 - Strong A/D Line but DJI could not get past it flat well-tested resistance. Instead, NYSE
broke its uptrendline and then the DJI fell back. Twice: July and August...
DIA
SPY
QQQ
IWM
Charts 6/27/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/27/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-27/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-27/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/27/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.15 -.07 267.1 -55% ------- RED -.026 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 364.02 -10.92 371.84 -145.6% ------- RED .01 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 291.5 1.03 294 -74.4% Bearish BLUE -.057 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 186.5 .71 188.57 -62.7% ------- ---- -.065 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 349.92 4.51 350.71 -62.9% Bearish BLUE .012 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.63 2.83 153.95 -54.4% ------- BLUE -.043 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.55 1.69 73.47 -206.9% Bearish BLUE -.111 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.7 .89 24.17 -100.8% ------- BLUE .051 -.228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 147.68 6.24 134.33 388.2% ------- BLUE -.038 -.185 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 158.05 1.16 160.06 -135.4% Bearish RED -.024 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.28 1.46 109.45 -62.3% Bullish BLUE -.062 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 132.84 -.13 131.98 65.1% Bullish BLUE .295 .1 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.52 -.07 14.46 45.2% Bearish RED -.033 -.209 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.83 0 23.66 2.1% Bullish ---- .052 .096
TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190627 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 136 NEWLOWS 7 MAXCP 12 MINCP 13 TTTNH 9 TTTNL 25 FASTUP 50 FASTDOWN 101 CPCROSSA 250 CPCROSSD 36 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 10 LOWACCUM 151 REDSELL 99 AUGSELS7 19 TRAPDOOR 10Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/27/19 Bullish = 27 Bearish = 16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .922 .941 .97 .961 .932 GOLD .862 .882 .862 .882 .784 .784 INSURANC .777 .74 .777 .851 .888 .888 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .846 .769 .769 DOWJONES .724 .689 .724 .793 .758 .758 MILITARY .724 .655 .689 .724 .689 .724 INDEXES .693 .612 .58 .618 .677 .655 COMODITY .682 .634 .609 .585 .585 .585 FOOD .679 .622 .603 .566 .566 .584 UTILITY .675 .7 .8 .8 .825 .85 FIDSTKS .63 .614 .586 .641 .668 .69 SP-100 .626 .637 .637 .67 .681 .67 COMPUTER .619 .619 .476 .523 .523 .571 AUTO .615 .538 .512 .512 .538 .564 INFRA .611 .555 .527 .555 .555 .555 SP500 .609 .578 .605 .64 .658 .666 JETS .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 .7 NASD-100 .593 .572 .572 .635 .645 .666 ETFS .578 .526 .403 .561 .526 .578 FINANCE .568 .477 .443 .477 .5 .522 NIFTY .561 .543 .491 .578 .578 .578 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 GUNS .529 .47 .588 .705 .588 .647 HOSPITAL .521 .478 .434 .391 .434 .478 RUS-1000 .521 .487 .519 .549 .58 .602 INDMATER .512 .475 .45 .425 .487 .5 CHEM .509 .433 .452 .471 .471 .49 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EDU .5 .333 .333 .333 .5 .5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ GAMING .478 .434 .434 .434 .347 .347 SEMI .477 .432 .387 .423 .441 .459 SOFTWARE .435 .403 .37 .516 .532 .58 ELECTRON .433 .401 .363 .388 .407 .42 BIGBANKS .428 .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 BEVERAGE .411 .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 HOMEBLDG .411 .294 .411 .529 .588 .705 BIOTECH .4 .345 .361 .339 .41 .394 REGBANKS .392 .285 .25 .25 .285 .285 HACKERS .35 .3 .2 .35 .4 .35 TRANSP .35 .25 .25 .3 .45 .5 RETAIL .339 .283 .301 .32 .339 .358 REIT .29 .25 .425 .5 .56 .722 OILGAS .236 .25 .215 .208 .243 .256 CHINA .157 .105 .087 .122 .122 .192 COAL 0 0 0 .142 .142 .142
========================================================================
6/26/2019 Our Peerless S9Vs and S12s typically bring a decline to the lower band,
at least. And though the NYSE A/D Line's uptrend is intact, the Closing Power
uptrends going back to January have now been broken for IWM, MDY, SPY,
OEX, QQQ and NASDAQ, but not the DJI. Apparently, NY Professionals
respect the DIA's role as the staunchest blue chip defender of the bull market.
Until the DIA's Closing Power breaks down, limit your short sales on it. The DJI still
may be able to breakout in an isolated way above 27000. Such a move would
bring more Peerless Sells very likely. A trade deal with China could bring such a rally.
On the other hand, Trumps public disparagement of Powell for not lowering rates
may mean rates will not be cut soon. Will that bring another sell-off if the next
Jobs' numbers do not jump back up? I would think so.
Hold present positions: Short DIA (limited position) and some Bearish MINCPs.
Long BA, GLD, NUGT and YINN. IWM probably should have been shorted
instead of DIA because IWM shows a weaker IP21 and ITRS and lots of liquidity.
Avoid QQQ and the tech ETFs unless you are confident in your assessment of
how and when the US-China tariff conflict will be resolved.
But right now, there is not even a truce in the trade war and Professionals, who
who would be expected to be the first to know if there was about to be a trade deal,
sold the market off after hopes this morning rose that a deal was close. This sell-off
after the opening placed DIA and the other indexes significantly below their openings
today. And this was the fourth straight day we have seen such behavior this June.
To see what has happened in the past when our candle-sticks were red four straight
days in the Summer in SPY, I put together a study-page on Summer SPY candle-sticks
that shows them year-by-year since 1993, the first year for which there is data. This
will help in lots of candle-stick studies:
http://tigersoft.com/SPYCAND/SPYCAND.htm
For our purposes now, it shows that four straight red candle-sticks by itself more often
shows an over-sold condition rather than special weakness, especially when SPY is
still above its 21-dma and 65-dma like now. But its short-term trend is down and
it needs, at least, to test its recent lows, I would think.
TIGER CANDLE-STICKS
Below are the Tiger candle-stock charts of the current general market ETF's.
Study also the price-trends here, Closing Power (shorter term) and Accumulation
Index trends here. Except for DIA, they show downtrends and weakened Closing Power
and Accumulation.
DIA
SPY
QQQ
IWM
MDY
Charts 6/26/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/26/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-26/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-26/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/26/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.22 -.04 268.08 -6.4% Bullish RED -.003 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.94 5.62 374.88 85.8% Bullish BLUE .067 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.47 -.29 295.86 -44.1% Bearish RED -.043 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.79 .86 188.85 -35.2% ------- RED -.064 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.41 -.61 354.31 -93.7% Bearish RED -.006 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.8 -.35 155.29 -122.6% Bearish RED -.078 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.86 -1.03 74.54 -225.6% Bearish RED -.06 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 141.44 12.15 137.16 298% Bullish BLUE-.017 -.148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 156.89 4.86 162.34 35.7% ------- BLUE-.011 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.82 -1.07 108.62 -108.7% ------- RED -.098 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 132.97 -1.23 131.11 192.7% Bullish ---- .267 .088 ^^^^^^^^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.59 .35 14.39 270.6% Bearish BLUE .015 -.19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.83 .28 23.82 116.4% Bullish BLUE .126 .106 ^^^^^^^^^^^^Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190626 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 56 NEWLOWS 28 MAXCP 8 MINCP 39 TTTNH 9 TTTNL 86 FASTUP 57 FASTDOWN 121 CPCROSSA 96 CPCROSSD 78 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 10 HIUPPCT 10 VHIP21 115 LOWACCUM 154 REDSELL 98 AUGSELS7 14 TRAPDOOR 10Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/26/19 Bearish = 23 Bullish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .922 .941 .97 .961 .932 .922 GOLD .882 .862 .882 .784 .784 .705 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .769 .769 .615 INSURANC .74 .777 .851 .888 .888 .888 UTILITY .7 .8 .8 .825 .85 .825 DOWJONES .689 .724 .793 .758 .758 .655 MILITARY .655 .689 .724 .689 .724 .655 SP-100 .637 .637 .67 .681 .67 .626 COMODITY .634 .609 .585 .585 .585 .585 FOOD .622 .603 .566 .566 .584 .584 COMPUTER .619 .476 .523 .523 .571 .523 FIDSTKS .614 .586 .641 .668 .684 .652 INDEXES .607 .58 .618 .677 .655 .623 SP500 .578 .605 .64 .658 .666 .627 NASD-100 .572 .572 .635 .645 .666 .604 INFRA .555 .527 .555 .555 .555 .527 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .59 NIFTY .543 .491 .578 .578 .578 .526 AUTO .538 .512 .512 .538 .564 .512 ETFS .526 .403 .561 .526 .578 .421 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .7 .7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUS-1000 .487 .519 .548 .581 .603 .56 HOSPITAL .478 .434 .391 .434 .478 .434 FINANCE .477 .443 .477 .5 .522 .522 INDMATER .475 .45 .425 .487 .5 .425 BEVERAGE .47 .47 .47 .47 .47 .411 GUNS .47 .588 .705 .588 .647 .588 SEMI .436 .39 .427 .445 .463 .427 GAMING .434 .434 .434 .347 .347 .391 CHEM .433 .452 .471 .471 .509 .433 ELECTRON .403 .365 .391 .41 .423 .384 SOFTWARE .403 .37 .516 .532 .58 .516 BIOTECH .342 .361 .339 .41 .391 .408 EDU .333 .333 .333 .5 .5 .5 HACKERS .3 .2 .35 .4 .35 .4 HOMEBLDG .294 .411 .529 .588 .705 .647 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 REGBANKS .285 .25 .25 .285 .285 .321 RETAIL .283 .301 .32 .339 .358 .358 OILGAS .25 .215 .208 .243 .256 .194 REIT .25 .425 .5 .56 .722 .702 TRANSP .25 .25 .3 .45 .5 .4 CHINA .105 .087 .122 .122 .192 .105 COAL 0 0 .142 .142 .142 .142=========================================================================
6/25/2019 The recent Sell S9v at the DJI's upper band was reinforced by a Sell S12 today..
So far, the NYSE A/D Line is still rising. Dividend stocks and bonds, blue chips
and some big insurance stocks (See Table 3) remain favored. This is a very defensive
market. Compare the DJI chart below and the charts our Nifty highs techs and the
NASDAQ, not to mention IWM or MDY, which are much weaker. This is the
type of market that the DJI-30 acts as leader. It attempts to prove by its good
behavior that all is well, even if elsehwere there are more sectors and stocks below their
65-dma supports than are above them.
Weak breadth from this point on would be a dangerous sign.
The DJI and most of the other general market ETFs show Tiger Accumulation
readings which are negative despite being more than 2% above the 21-dma.
This shows "big money" used the last rally to do considerable selling.
While Bulls will take heart in the normal bullishmess in this the third year of the 4-year
Presidential cycle from June 26th through the July 4th holiday, Closing Power
uptrends were broken today for SPY and QQQ, adding to yesterday's similar
breakdowns for MDY and IWM. Only DIA's Closing Power is still in
and uptrend, and it - just barely.
The over-head resistance should contain any upside move until there has
been a successful re-test of the lows or the FED cuts rates dramatically.
Powell's "Tell" Is He's Not Telling.
Why are Professionals worried? Certainly, the failure of the DJI to get above 27000
and the growing weakness in other sectors can be blamed. But I think the way
short-term rates are now below 2% while the Federal Funds rate remains at 2.4%
is scaring some, too. What's going on? Why is big money selling stocks and rushing
to take long positions mostly in Gold and in short-term and 10-year Treasuries?
Fed Chairman Powell maddeningly refused to talk about this, or why he switched so
abruptly from hawk to dove last December or, even more basically, why his FOMC
has not already lowered rates given the low CPI numbers, the weak Jobs report for May,
the strong Dollar, productivity gains being above real wage gains and the new tariffs
acting as a fiscal drag on the economy.
Without a Fed rate cut soon, I would think the DJI will fall to the lower band again, at the
least. My guess is that the market will have to do another attention-getting, "cry baby"
routine in order to get a 1/4% drop in the Federal Funds rate and the Discunt Rate
in July. But such rate cuts should bring a very good rally in August. Perhaps, President
(the populist) Trump will publicly scold Powell again. I personally would find this
very entertaining. And it may help Powell see the light, though his performance
today may have just been to make it seem that he is independent.
I would continue to hold YINN. I can't believe that the President wants to make a trade
war with China and a hot war with Iran at the very same time.
Charts 6/25/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/25/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-25/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-25/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/22/2019ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.26 -1.91 265.56 -1.3% Bearish RED -.035 ==== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 369.32 -4.67 368.56 -62.3% ------- RED .015 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.76 -2.88 293.06 -27.9% Bearish RED -.058 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 184.93 -3.23 187.11 -39.4% ------- RED -.078 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.02 -1.89 351.97 -69.9% Bearish RED -.007 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.15 -.93 154.56 -92.9% Bearish RED -.074 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.89 -1.69 73.15 -128.2% Bearish RED -.053 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 129.29 -5.93 133.46 -145.2% Bearish RED -.063 -.237 weak...warning --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 152.03 -8.92 155.76 -61.2% ------- RED -.023 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.89 -.23 108.17 -31% ------- RED -.115 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 134.2 .26 127.89 271.5% Bullish RED .295 .097 strong...warning --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.24 .01 13.82 155.6% Bearish ---- .01 -.212 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.55 -.25 23.28 63.7% ------- RED .067 .093 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190625 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 80 NEWLOWS 38 MAXCP 9 MINCP 37 TTTNH 9 TTTNL 77 FASTUP 54 FASTDOWN 114 CPCROSSA 59 CPCROSSD 247 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 13 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 12 LOWACCUM 150 REDSELL 90 AUGSELS7 13 TRAPDOOR 9 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/25/19 Bullish = 20 Bearish = 24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .941 .97 .961 .932 .922 .912 GOLD .862 .882 .784 .784 .686 .647 UTILITY .8 .8 .825 .85 .825 .7 INSURANC .777 .851 .888 .888 .925 .814 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 DJI-13 .769 .846 .769 .769 .615 .615 DOWJONES .724 .793 .758 .758 .655 .689 MILITARY .689 .724 .689 .724 .655 .689 SP-100 .637 .67 .681 .67 .626 .626 COMODITY .609 .585 .585 .585 .585 .609 SP500 .605 .64 .658 .666 .627 .623 FOOD .603 .566 .566 .584 .584 .584 GUNS .588 .705 .588 .647 .588 .588 FIDSTKS .586 .641 .668 .684 .652 .646 INDEXES .58 .618 .677 .655 .629 .645 NASD-100 .572 .635 .645 .666 .604 .583 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 INFRA .527 .555 .555 .555 .527 .527 RUS-1000 .519 .548 .58 .605 .561 .557 AUTO .512 .512 .538 .564 .512 .512 ============================================================================================ JETS .5 .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 ============================================================================================ NIFTY .491 .578 .578 .578 .526 .456 COMPUTER .476 .523 .523 .571 .523 .476 BEVERAGE .47 .47 .47 .47 .411 .411 CHEM .452 .471 .471 .509 .452 .452 INDMATER .45 .425 .487 .5 .425 .425 FINANCE .443 .477 .5 .522 .522 .511 GAMING .434 .434 .347 .347 .391 .391 HOSPITAL .434 .391 .434 .478 .434 .347 REIT .425 .5 .56 .722 .702 .682 HOMEBLDG .411 .529 .588 .705 .647 .764 ETFS .403 .561 .526 .578 .421 .298 SEMI .387 .423 .441 .459 .423 .378 SOFTWARE .37 .516 .532 .58 .516 .5 ELECTRON .363 .388 .407 .42 .375 .356 BIOTECH .358 .339 .41 .391 .4 .372 EDU .333 .333 .5 .5 .5 .5 RETAIL .301 .32 .339 .358 .358 .377 BIGBANKS .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 REGBANKS .25 .25 .285 .285 .321 .392 TRANSP .25 .3 .45 .5 .45 .5 OILGAS .215 .208 .243 .256 .187 .18 HACKERS .2 .35 .4 .35 .4 .4 CHINA .087 .122 .122 .192 .105 .122 COAL 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 0
=======================================================================
6/24/2019 Friday's Sell S9V at the upper 3.9% band just below 27000 has stalled
the DJI's rally. The DJI's rally has failed to bring along small and medium
priced stocks most, so far. See how the Closing Powers of IWM and MDY have
broken their uptrends. Professionals are selling these. Without broader participation
in the rally, the DJI will have a much harder time breaking out above 27000 without
just giving more Peerless Sells. The real story now, however, is not the DJI.
It is Gold's breakout above 1400, the Dollar's Head/Shoulder top and the
steep fall in 10-year and short-term rates. Something bearish usually befalls
the market when Gold rises by 20% or more over 3 months. And why is
Powell delivering an unscheduled speech tomorrow in New York? "Something
is up", to coin a phrase.
Powell may try to weaken Gold tomorrow.
Use the 5-day ma methodology advocated
by our QUICKSILVER SYSTEM.
It appears highly likely that the FED will drop interest rates unless the June jobs
numbers turn back up above +200,000, which right now seems unlikely. But
rather than guess about the FED, again consider buying GLD, if you have not
already. Something big is going on there. The story has not come out. It has to
do with the FED's dropping interest rates and the Dollar being sold by
international traders. It has something to do with tensions in the middle east. It
has something to do with the unknowns of an escalating war of tariffs. It may have
something to do with the Bank of England's refusal to send back to Venezuela its gold.
It may have something to do with Russia and other countries seeking to be paid in Gold
or in other currencies than the Dollar.
Charts 6/24/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/24/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-24/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-24/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/24/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 267.17 .07 265.33 103.4% Bullish RED .068 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.99 2.15 373.96 258.8% Bullish BLUE .001 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 293.64 -.36 292.4 72.9% ------- RED -.021 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 188.16 -.41 186.41 118.2% ------- RED -.068 -.005 weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.91 -2.8 350.93 13.5% Bearish RED .028 -.043 weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.08 -1.87 154.01 -5.2% Bearish RED -.014 -.054 weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.58 -.89 72.77 92.4% Bullish RED -.008 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 135.22 .89 133.2 662.7% ------- --- -.069 -.186 weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 160.95 .89 153.97 468.5% Bullish RED .006 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.12 -2.33 107.56 47.2% Bullish RED -.081 -.065 weak weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 133.94 1.96 127.12 289.3% Bullish BLUE .362 .076 very strong --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.23 -.23 13.8 260.8% Bearish RED -.033 -.23 very weak --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.8 .14 23.25 192.5% Bullish BLUE .076 .093 strong Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190624 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 151 NEWLOWS 36 MAXCP 15 weak MINCP 35 TTTNH 13 TTTNL 64 FASTUP 80 FASTDOWN 77 CPCROSSA 44 CPCROSSD 210 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 6 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 13 LOWACCUM 152 REDSELL 91 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 10Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA Bullish = 25 Bearish = 18 6/24/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .961 .932 .922 .922 .922 GOLD .877 .775 .775 .693 .653 .632 INSURANC .851 .888 .888 .925 .814 .814 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .615 .615 .538 UTILITY .8 .825 .85 .825 .7 .725DOWJONES .793 .758 .758 .655 .655 .62 SOLAR .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .666 MILITARY .724 .689 .724 .655 .689 .482 GUNS .705 .588 .647 .588 .588 .588 SP-100 .67 .681 .67 .626 .604 .56FIDSTKS .641 .668 .684 .652 .641 .586 SP500 .64 .658 .666 .627 .619 .564 NASD-100 .635 .645 .666 .604 .572 .5 INDEXES .618 .677 .655 .629 .655 .5 COMODITY .585 .585 .585 .585 .609 .487NIFTY .578 .578 .578 .526 .456 .35 FOOD .566 .566 .584 .584 .584 .49 ETFS .561 .526 .578 .421 .298 .157 INFRA .555 .555 .555 .527 .527 .388 RUS-1000 .548 .58 .603 .562 .556 .498GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .5 HOMEBLDG .529 .588 .705 .647 .764 .764 COMPUTER .523 .523 .571 .523 .476 .428 SOFTWARE .516 .532 .58 .516 .5 .419 AUTO .512 .538 .564 .512 .538 .512 N=25 ============================================================================================= JETS .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .7 REIT .5 .56 .722 .702 .689 .682 ============================================================================================= FINANCE .477 .5 .522 .522 .511 .431 CHEM .471 .471 .509 .452 .471 .433 BEVERAGE .47 .47 .47 .411 .411 .411 GAMING .434 .347 .347 .391 .391 .26 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428INDMATER .425 .487 .5 .425 .425 .337 SEMI .423 .441 .459 .423 .378 .288 HOSPITAL .391 .434 .478 .434 .347 .26 ELECTRON .388 .407 .42 .375 .356 .273 HACKERS .35 .4 .35 .4 .4 .3BIOTECH .336 .41 .391 .4 .361 .306 EDU .333 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 RETAIL .32 .339 .358 .358 .377 .358 TRANSP .3 .45 .5 .45 .5 .35 REGBANKS .25 .285 .285 .321 .392 .285OILGAS .208 .243 .256 .187 .18 .145 COAL .142 .142 .142 .142 0 0 CHINA .122 .122 .192 .105 .122 .087 N=18
====================================================================
6/21/2019 Friday's Sell S9v at the 3.9% upper band should keep the DJI busy trying
get through the resistance up to 27000. We see red Distribtion and heavy
red Down volume in our IP21 and V-I indicators on the Peerless chart.
But we also see a still rising NYSE A/D Line and rising Closing Powers.
So, we would only be short a small position in DIA, but also hold long
GLD and NUGT (Note the head/shoulders pattern in the Dollar due to the
falling interest rates), MSFT in the DJI-30 (due to its new leasing of software
instead of selling it outright) and YINN (out of the belief that there will
probably be a US-China trade deal sooner rather than later.)
Plunging Interest Rates are not always bullish.
They can show the FED has become very nervous
or that big money is quickly taking money out of
stocks and putting it into short-term Government bonds.
In either case, Gold usually rises, like it is doing now.
And a 20%-30% quick rise in Gold is very often bearish
for the market. See the H/S pattern in the Dollar. This
is also often a bearish sign for the general market.
Foreign speculators may sell their short-term US holdings
and move their money to Gold or stronger currencies.
The reasons for the remaining strength in the market are important to consider.
Number 1: Short term rates are falling very fast. See the chart below.
These low rates make for rises in defensive, dividend stocks, utilities and bond funds.
They also cause more borrowing, where credit is good and that shouldl help
the general economy. I take this to be why NY professionals seem unwilling to
accept the proposition that the US economy is slowing down, at least not until the monthly Jobs numbers actually turn negative, which is what happened in July and
August 2007 (and was an excellent time to be selling.)
Number 2: Having Trump in the White House and having a Republican majority
on the Supreme Court gives corporations many economic advantages. De-regulation
was every bit as important as low taxes in keep the 1920s' and 1980s' long bull
markets alive as long as they did. Wall Street knows all this very well. I suspect
they will do whatever it takes to cause a breakout above 27000 in the DJI later
this year.
Number 3: The polls may not show it, but Trump can win the 2020 Presidential
Election if the stock market keeps rising. People may say that they will vote for
Joe Biden, the leading Democrat, but not if the Jobs' numbers remain good and Biden
remains on the defensive and remains unable to fire up his much more youthful base.
They won't bother voting. That the polls don't show.
Right now Gold looks especially attractive. Avoid our "Nifty" Tech stocks which are
mostly sitting below their 65-dma. The bullishness we see in GLD is mainly the result
of short-term interest rates falling so low. True, the possibility of war with Iran is also
a factor, as is the danger of an even bigger trade war. Gold stocks have been weak
for a long time. They have lots of overhead resistance. GLD seems relatively safe and
has made an important 5-year price breakout. This should also breathe life into the
volatile 3x leveraged NUGT which traders love to run up and down. Use a sell stop
below its 5-day pivot-point.
Charts 6/21/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/21/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-21/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-21/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/21/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 267.1 -.98 261.68 105.7% Bullish RED .11 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 371.84 -3.04 354.9 339.1% Bullish RED .05 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 294 -1.86 289.37 81.2% ------- RED .014 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 188.57 -.28 183.74 159.6% ------- ---- -.038 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 350.71 -3.6 346.96 54.7% ------- RED .058 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.95 -1.34 152.24 72.3% ------- RED .019 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.47 -1.07 71.23 88.6% ------- RED .051 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 134.33 -2.83 117.83 548.4% ------- RED -.016 -.193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 160.06 -2.28 146.36 473.8% Bullish RED .033 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.45 .83 106.1 296.1% Bullish BLUE .024 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 131.98 .87 126.48 212% Bullish BLUE .3 .047 ^^^^^ strong --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.46 .07 13.5 469.6% Bearish ---- -.038 -.219 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.66 -.16 22.9 187.4% ------- BLUE .045 .072 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-21 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 145 NEWLOWS 25 MAXCP 35 MINCP 19 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 40 FASTUP 118 FASTDOWN 55 CPCROSSA 51 CPCROSSD 170 BIGVOLUP 8 BIGVODN 24 ACCUMVER 6 HIGHIP21 7 VHIP21 114 LOWACCUM 174 REDSELL 87 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 11 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/21/19 Bullish = 26 Bearish = 16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .932 .922 .922 .941 .961 INSURANC .888 .888 .925 .814 .814 .851 UTILITY .825 .85 .825 .7 .725 .75 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .705 .705 GOLD .775 .775 .693 .653 .632 .632DJI-13 .769 .769 .615 .615 .538 .384 DOWJONES .758 .758 .655 .655 .62 .586 MILITARY .689 .724 .655 .689 .482 .551 INDEXES .677 .655 .629 .655 .505 .489 SP-100 .666 .655 .612 .591 .548 .537FIDSTKS .664 .681 .648 .637 .583 .589 SP500 .655 .663 .624 .616 .565 .567 NASD-100 .645 .666 .604 .572 .51 .489 GUNS .588 .647 .588 .588 .588 .588 HOMEBLDG .588 .705 .647 .764 .764 .764COMODITY .585 .585 .585 .609 .487 .512 RUS-1000 .58 .603 .561 .557 .503 .5 NIFTY .578 .578 .526 .456 .35 .333 REIT .575 .732 .712 .698 .691 .609 FOOD .566 .584 .584 .584 .49 .509INFRA .555 .555 .527 .527 .388 .388 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .5 .545 AUTO .538 .564 .512 .538 .512 .512 SOFTWARE .532 .58 .516 .5 .419 .435 ETFS .526 .578 .421 .298 .157 .263 COMPUTER .523 .571 .523 .476 .428 .38 N=26 ============================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 FINANCE .5 .522 .522 .511 .431 .465 JETS .5 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 ============================================================================================= INDMATER .487 .5 .425 .425 .337 .337 BEVERAGE .47 .47 .411 .411 .411 .352 CHEM .461 .5 .442 .48 .461 .48 TRANSP .45 .5 .45 .5 .35 .35 SEMI .441 .459 .423 .378 .297 .306HOSPITAL .434 .478 .434 .347 .26 .217 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 BIOTECH .408 .391 .4 .361 .309 .265 ELECTRON .407 .42 .375 .356 .28 .273 HACKERS .4 .35 .4 .4 .3 .3GAMING .347 .347 .391 .391 .26 .304 RETAIL .339 .358 .358 .377 .358 .358 REGBANKS .285 .285 .321 .392 .285 .357 OILGAS .246 .26 .197 .19 .154 .14 COAL .142 .142 .142 0 0 0 CHINA .122 .192 .105 .122 .087 .087 N=16
====================================================================
6/21/2019 New S9-V at 3.9% upper band. Since the TigerSoft indicators for
DIA are all still rising, short only a partial position in DIA at this
times. If DIA's Closing Power uptrend is violated, we will short more.
The conditions for a Buy B4 or B10 are not present at this time. That
makes a breakout like occurred in June 1929 or June 1987 much less
likely. Fortunately, we can watch the DIA's Closing Power and see what
NY Professionals make of the big decline in interest rates.
10-year rates fell almost to 2% today. This brought new money into
bonds, dividend stocks and Gold stocks. What does it mean? A
currency war between Europe and the US to see who can lower rates
the fastest? A collapse in the world-wide economy? Is the FED already
adding liquidity in a big way? Whatever the answer, it gave a big boost to
much of the market. But now the DJI is nuzzling its 4% upper band and
its 12-month highs, yet our Accumulation Index and V-Indicator remain
negative. This produced a new Sell S9-V today. Peerless users have to
see this as bearish.
We are now officially in Summer. This is when the A/D Line usually
guides us. And, so far, the NYSE A/D Line is rising and we see a
positive P-Indicator. Most important, this is the bullish third year in the
four-year Presidential cycle. Expect partisans to boost the market
as much as possible at this time. (Since 1915, these third years' average
DJI gain is +15%, almost 3x what it is in other years.)
As Peerless users, I think that we are bound to honor the S9-V at the
3.9% upper band, at least a little, with some DIA shorting, provided we
consider a DJI close over 27000 reason enough to cover. Flat top
breakouts into all-time high territory should be respected.
Hold the other long positions that have been mentioned, especially NUGT, GLD and YINN (which has jumped back to its falling 65-dma.
When we look back at all the similar situations since 1929, we see how the
highest level in the last year can hold back the DJI and bring a reversal, as in
1957 and 2011 when the P-I was negative and the A/D Line failed to
match it's previous high as the DJI moved up to its upper band. These two
tops were made in July, by the way. But there is no A/D Line weakness now.
There has been no non-confirmation. So, the 1957 and 2011 situations are
not close parallels.
1957 A July A/D NC finally turned DJI down 19%
2011 A July A/D NC finally turned DJI down 17%
Another past case may apply more closely. Look below at the 1976 case where
the DJI's 1000-level's steadfast resistance at the round number (perhaps, like 27000
now) was followed by a break in the strong A/D Line uptrend in July and brought
a sell-off to the lower band. Will 27000 be like 1000? Possibly. But first we will
need the A/D Line uptrend to be broken. With rates so low, that seems unlikely.
In additon, 1976 was not the bullish third year in the four-year cycle.
1976
Unfortunately for bulls, the June 1929 and June 1987 cases, whose June parallels
I keep pointing out, both produced Buy B4 take-off signals and that seems unlikely
in 2019. This signal requires either powerfully improving breadth or Accumulation.
Neither is present here and our DJI's IP21 is negative now. Without a positive
IP21, I also would not be quick to judge a Buy B10. Might the IP21 turn positive.
That will take an increase in volume and more closings by the DJI at the day's high.
Today's volume did rise, but the DJI sold off in the last few minutes.
Conclusion
All this leaves us with an Sell S9-V at the upper 3.9% upper band and the
DJI right below resistance up to 27000. Another retreat back to the 21-day
ma seems likely. If China and Trump fail to reach a trade agreement and
if the June new Jobs numbers are negative, a deeper pullback will ensue.
But so long as short-term rates are as low as they are now, I doubt if there
can be much of a retreat. Too many dividend stocks and bond funds on the
NYSE will remain relatively attractive.
Traders should sell short DIA but know that our objectives are strictly limited
and I would stay long NUGT, GLD, YINN, MSFT and some our bullish MAXCPs
and short some of our bearish MINCPS. The NASDAQ and QQQ failed to
make new highs. Their ITRS (relative strength) is negative. See Table 1.
Table 3 shows the most favored stock groups, where a majority of their
components are above the 65-dma, now are more numerous than the Bearish
groups. This shows some broadening of the market. There is a lot that is politically
at stake A narrow DJI rally up past 27000 will pose real techincal problems.
Charts 6/20/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/20/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-20/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-20/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/20/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 268.08 2.52 261.51 123.9% Bullish ---- .139 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.88 6.32 347.16 362.7% Bullish BLUE .08 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 295.86 2.8 289.26 108% ------- RED .044 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 188.85 1.74 182.64 147% ------- RED -.033 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.31 2.34 346.88 72.2% ------- RED .053 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.29 .73 151.73 72.5% ------- RED .036 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 74.54 1.39 72.18 202.2% ------- BLUE .094 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.17 .3 23.51 126.6% ------- RED -.066 -.207 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 137.16 3.7 120.25 258.1% ------- RED -.01 -.158 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 162.34 6.58 145.58 421.9% Bullish RED .047 .065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.62 .45 103.13 213.6% Bullish RED .01 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 131.11 3.22 126.56 177.7% Bullish BLUE .244 .04 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.39 .57 13.17 290.9% Bearish BLUE-.055 -.221 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.82 .54 22.79 208.6% ------- BLUE .002 .087 ^^^^^ Table 1 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190620 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 447 >10:1 NEWLOWS 35 MAXCP 45 Professionals have doubts. MINCP 21 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 33 FASTUP 77 FASTDOWN 61 CPCROSSA 43 CPCROSSD 164 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 18 VHIP21 112 REDSELL 94 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 11 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/20/19 Bullish = 29 Bearish = 13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .932 .922 .922 .941 .961 .951 INSURANC .888 .925 .814 .814 .851 .888 UTILITY .85 .825 .7 .725 .75 .725 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .705 .764 .823 GOLD .775 .693 .653 .632 .632 .632DJI-13 .769 .615 .615 .538 .384 .461 DOWJONES .758 .655 .655 .62 .586 .586 REIT .732 .712 .698 .691 .609 .623 MILITARY .724 .655 .689 .482 .586 .655 HOMEBLDG .705 .647 .764 .764 .764 .764JETS .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 FIDSTKS .681 .648 .637 .583 .589 .583 NASD-100 .666 .604 .572 .51 .489 .552 SP500 .663 .624 .616 .565 .567 .593 INDEXES .655 .629 .655 .505 .5 .586SP-100 .655 .612 .591 .548 .537 .559 GUNS .647 .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 RUS-1000 .603 .561 .556 .504 .5 .524 COMODITY .585 .585 .609 .487 .512 .512 FOOD .584 .584 .584 .49 .509 .509SOFTWARE .58 .516 .5 .419 .419 .451 ETFS .578 .421 .298 .157 .263 .385 NIFTY .578 .526 .456 .35 .333 .421 COMPUTER .571 .523 .476 .428 .38 .476 AUTO .564 .512 .538 .512 .512 .512INFRA .555 .527 .527 .388 .388 .444 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .5 .545 .545 FINANCE .522 .522 .511 .431 .465 .465 CHEM .509 .452 .471 .452 .49 .471 N=29 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 INDMATER .5 .425 .425 .337 .337 .387 TRANSP .5 .45 .5 .35 .35 .5 ============================================================================================ HOSPITAL .478 .434 .347 .26 .217 .304 BEVERAGE .47 .411 .411 .411 .411 .588 SEMI .459 .423 .378 .297 .315 .378 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 ELECTRON .42 .375 .356 .28 .286 .337BIOTECH .389 .4 .361 .309 .265 .287 RETAIL .358 .358 .377 .358 .358 .396 HACKERS .35 .4 .4 .3 .3 .4 GAMING .347 .391 .391 .26 .304 .347 REGBANKS .285 .321 .392 .285 .321 .392OILGAS .262 .198 .191 .156 .141 .156 CHINA .192 .105 .122 .087 .087 .087 COAL .142 .142 0 0 0 0 N=13
====================================================================
6/20/2019 Look Out Above. Will there be a buying panic above 27000?
Professionals are banking on something big occurring soon.
The operative Peerless signal is a Sell S12-S9-V. But the bullish seasonality
looks like it will win out.
The flat-resistance just under 27000 may stop the
present advance, as happened repeatedly in 1976,
but we should not expect that until the NYSE A/D Line
breaks its uptrend. Usually flat overhead-resistance in
the DJI leads to a breakout. Certainly, that was
the case of June 1929 and June 1987, which I believe
are the closest past parallels. (See their charts in
last night's Hotline.
As long as the A/D Line and Closing Power for DIA are rising and above
its 21-dma, I would not act on the S12-S9. See the explanations yesterday.
Instead buy some Gold stocks or ETFs and Chinese stocks. Look also for
fresh breakouts among our Bullish MAXCPs. There is a good chance the
DJI will breakout above 26700 and the make a powerful move above 27000.
Consider buying the second highest Power ranked DJI-30 stock - MSFT.
It seems ready to breakout past the top of its rising resistance line in search of
a much higher priced supply of shares.
Powell refused to lower interest rates and yet the DJI rose today. Always
watch for days when the market behaves the opposite of what might normally
be expected. I take today's rise as a sign that the market is in strong hands
and wants to achieve a flat top breakout, much like it did in June 1929 and
June 1987. The rising Closing Powers shows that the buying includes many
New York Professionals. They usually get the intermediate-term right. The
Yesterday's S9-V and S12 tell us that big money is busy selling on the rally
by the DJI back to old highs. But whatever shares they are offering now seems
to be bought by Professionals who understand the special bullishness of
the third year in the four-year cycle and how vital it is for Wall Street and
Republicans, from a political vantage point, to keep the rally moving higher.
Powell's delay in coming aboard would seem to be temporary. Half of the
voting members of the FOMC favored an immediate cut. So, lower rates
are just being postponed. I think that is the interetation that should be given
to the market's strength today, to Gold's rising today and to the emerging
head/shoulders pattern in the DJI. (Lower rates would mean a weaker DJI and
a Gold's rise.) So, I would buy NUGT and GLD.
It also appears that traders expect Trump to reach a new trade agreement with
China fairly soon. See all the Pofessional buying in YINN.. This also should be
bought, in my opinion.
Charts 6/19/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/19/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-19/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-19/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/19/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.56 .23 261.56 97.5% Bullish BLUE .135 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 368.56 -5.4 348.86 303.8% Bullish RED .06 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 293.06 .66 289.58 80.6% ------- BLUE 0 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 187.11 .7 183.42 129.8% Bullish BLUE-.038 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 351.97 1.04 349.27 70.6% ------- BLUE .072 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.56 .55 153.07 101.3% ------- BLUE .06 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.15 .38 71.62 109.9% ------- BLUE .081 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.87 -.02 23.57 236.5% ------- RED -.063 -.229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 133.46 .26 130.6 209.9% ------- RED .028 -.193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 155.76 1.79 149.66 247.7% Bullish BLUE .024 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.17 .61 104.1 230.8% Bullish BLUE .065 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 127.89 .77 126.6 81.4% Bullish BLUE .242 .035 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.82 .02 13.6 264.2% Bearish -----.084 -.247 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.28 .03 22.86 161.8% ------- BLUE .027 .08 ^^^^^ Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190619 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 346 NEWLOWS 28 MAXCP 63 MINCP 12 TTTNH 25 TTTNL 14 FASTUP 80 FASTDOWN 51 CPCROSSA 134 CPCROSSD 83 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 2 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 139 REDSELL 89 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/19/19 Bullish = 27 Bearish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .925 .814 .814 .851 .888 .888 BONDFUND .922 .922 .941 .961 .951 .951 UTILITY .825 .7 .725 .75 .725 .675 SOLAR .823 .823 .705 .764 .823 .823 REIT .712 .698 .691 .609 .616 .561 JETS .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 .7 GOLD .693 .653 .632 .632 .632 .612 DOWJONES .655 .655 .62 .586 .586 .586 MILITARY .655 .689 .482 .586 .655 .517 FIDSTKS .648 .637 .583 .589 .583 .54 HOMEBLDG .647 .764 .764 .764 .764 .705 INDEXES .629 .655 .505 .5 .586 .537 SP500 .624 .616 .565 .567 .589 .544 DJI-13 .615 .615 .538 .384 .461 .461 SP-100 .612 .591 .548 .537 .559 .516 NASD-100 .604 .572 .51 .489 .552 .51 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 COMODITY .585 .609 .487 .512 .512 .487 FOOD .584 .584 .49 .509 .509 .49 RUS-1000 .561 .556 .503 .501 .524 .482 GREEN .545 .545 .5 .545 .545 .545 INFRA .527 .527 .388 .388 .444 .361 NIFTY .526 .456 .35 .333 .421 .35 COMPUTER .523 .476 .428 .38 .476 .476 FINANCE .522 .511 .431 .465 .465 .443 SOFTWARE .516 .5 .419 .419 .451 .451 AUTO .512 .538 .512 .512 .512 .461 ============================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ============================================================================================= CHEM .452 .471 .452 .49 .49 .471 TRANSP .45 .5 .35 .35 .5 .35 HOSPITAL .434 .347 .26 .217 .26 .26 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 INDMATER .425 .425 .337 .337 .387 .35 SEMI .423 .378 .297 .315 .378 .333 ETFS .421 .298 .157 .263 .385 .438 BEVERAGE .411 .411 .411 .411 .588 .588 HACKERS .4 .4 .3 .3 .4 .35 BIOTECH .397 .361 .309 .265 .284 .26 GAMING .391 .391 .26 .304 .347 .26 ELECTRON .375 .356 .28 .286 .337 .286 RETAIL .358 .377 .358 .358 .377 .339 REGBANKS .321 .392 .285 .321 .392 .321 OILGAS .197 .19 .154 .14 .154 .14 COAL .142 0 0 0 0 0 CHINA .105 .122 .087 .087 .087 .087
========================================================================
6/19/2019 Despite the new Sell S9-V today, wait for the A/D Line and Closing Power to
break their uptrends to go short again. Right now, they are rising. It is not safe yet
to go short DIA. The market is waiting to see what the FED and Powell wants to
do today.
The June 1929 and 1987 take-offs occurred despite the Peerless S9-Vs and S12s.
There is a good chance this scenario will repeat again here in 2019. Trump may
soon reach a deal with China to end the trade war and Powell may soon agree to
lower interest rates now. This should send the DJI up strongly. This seems to be
what Professionals expect even as many of the "Pauci" (what Cicero called the super
wealthy) are selling into strength. We need to see which force wins out to be safe.
1929
1987
Today, Peerless gave a new Sell Sell, a Sell S9-V to reinforce the
previous Sell S12. But we may see a spike to 26600 or possibly even
27000. I have warned that the bullishness of the 3rd year in the Presidential
Election Year in Junes is a powerful factor and I have shown that
powerful two month rallies followed the June S12s and S9s in 1929
and 1987. And I warned that streaks of 6 straight up-days in Junes
tend to be followed by significantly higher prices.
So, we have to be prepared for higher prices despite the S9V and Sell S12.
in this a most political year. But before deciding what to do, let's consider
the history of S9-Vs in June since 1965. After all, the DJI closed today 3.1%
over the 21-dma with both the V-Indicator and IP21 (Accumulation Index)
negative. (See the key values in the chart below.) The S9V history Table further
below shows that a paper loss of 0.8% to 4.0% first occurred and only then
the gain on short sales in DJI was 3% to 6% in three of four instances. The
exception was in June 1987 when the Sell S9V was reversed higher 4%
higher. My conclusion is that it is the June 1987 and June 1929 cases are what
we have to be concerned about now. See their charts again a little below.
2019 A rate reduction and an agreement with China would unleash a big advance over 27000.
See the big 2 month advances in 1929 and 1987 when new highs were made.
Sell S9-V since 1965 in Bull Markets
(Before 1965, the up and down volume can only be poorly estimated by using the ratio of advances to declines and then apply that
ratio to total NYSE volume.)
S9V DJIA Gain DJIA Paper Loss
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19870609 2352.7 -.039 2445.51 -.0394 6/22
la/ma=1.026 aroc=.1558 PI= -21 IP21= -.021 VI=-2 OPct=.031
19870610 S8 2353.61 -.039 2445.51 -.039 6/22
19870618 S8 2408.13 -.016 2445.51 -.0155 6/22
19870622 B4 2445.51 .105 2409.76 -.0146 7/1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
19990630 S9 10970.80 +.029 11209.8 -.0217 7/16
la/ma=1.024 aroc= .417 PI= +62 IP21=+.053 VI=-2 OPct=.180
19990706 S5 11135.12 .043 11209.8 -.0067 7/16
19990709 S9 11193.69 .105 11209.8 -.0014 7/16
19990730 B2 10655.14 .043 10645.9 -.0008 8/2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
20040607 S9 10391.81 +.058 10479.5 -.0084 6/23
la/ma=1.03 aroc=.177 PI=+351 IP21=+.034 VI=-22 OPct=.028
20040726 B2 9961.92 .033 9814.66 -.0147 8/9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
20090603 S9 8675.24 +.041 8763.13 -.0101 6/5
la/ma=1.027 aroc=.351 PI=+221 IP21=+.008 VI=-96 OPct=-.0128
20090608 S8 8764.49 .053 none 0
20090608 S5 8764.49 .053 none 0
20090610 S9 8739.02 .050 none 0
20090624 B5 8299.86 .237 perfect 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
20190618 S9 26465.54
la/ma=1.031 aroc=.325 PI=+188 IP21=-.002 VI=-40
=================================================
Charts 6/18/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/18/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-18/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-18/BEARISH.htm Table 4 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/18/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.33 3.65 260.45 85.2% Bullish BLUE .137 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.96 19.06 347.03 352.4% Bullish BLUE .127 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 292.4 3.03 288.39 60.5% ------- BLUE -.045 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 186.41 2.67 182.34 82.2% ------- BLUE -.079 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 350.93 3.97 347.05 50.6% ------- BLUE .02 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.01 1.77 151.47 89.2% ------- BLUE .004 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.77 1.54 71.57 23% ------- BLUE .091 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.89 .28 22.76 173.8% ------- RED -.059 -.231 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 133.2 15.37 128.17 -185.1% ------- BLUE .002 -.185 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 153.97 7.61 148.39 98.8% Bullish BLUE -.014 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.56 1.46 103.33 233.9% Bullish BLUE -.004 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 127.12 .64 125.83 76.9% Bullish RED .196 .038 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.8 .3 13.11 14.9% Bearish BLUE -.099 -.237 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.25 .35 22.54 101% Bearish BLUE .021 .093 ^^^^^ Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-18 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 209 NEWLOWS 8 MAXCP 39 MINCP 10 TTTNH 31 TTTNL 21 FASTUP 70 FASTDOWN 50 CPCROSSA 206 CPCROSSD 92 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 15 VHIP21 117 LOWACCUM 139 REDSELL 89 AUGSELS7 12 TRAPDOOR 10Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/18/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .922 .941 .961 .951 .951 .961 SOLAR .823 .705 .764 .823 .823 .882 INSURANC .814 .814 .851 .888 .888 .888 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .764 .764 .705 .705 JETS .7 .7 .7 .8 .7 .6 UTILITY .7 .725 .75 .725 .675 .575 REIT .698 .691 .609 .616 .575 .493 MILITARY .689 .482 .586 .655 .517 .517 DOWJONES .655 .62 .586 .586 .586 .586 INDEXES .655 .505 .5 .586 .543 .58 GOLD .653 .632 .632 .632 .612 .551 FIDSTKS .637 .583 .589 .583 .54 .524 SP500 .616 .565 .567 .589 .546 .555 DJI-13 .615 .538 .384 .461 .461 .461 COMODITY .609 .487 .512 .512 .487 .439 SP-100 .591 .548 .537 .559 .516 .537 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 FOOD .584 .49 .509 .509 .49 .452 NASD-100 .572 .51 .489 .552 .51 .541 RUS-1000 .556 .503 .5 .525 .488 .486 GREEN .545 .5 .545 .545 .545 .545 AUTO .538 .512 .512 .512 .461 .461 INFRA .527 .388 .388 .444 .361 .388 FINANCE .511 .431 .465 .465 .443 .465 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 SOFTWARE .5 .419 .419 .451 .451 .435 TRANSP .5 .35 .35 .5 .4 .4 COMPUTER .476 .428 .38 .476 .476 .476 CHEM .471 .452 .49 .49 .49 .433 NIFTY .456 .35 .333 .421 .35 .438 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 INDMATER .425 .337 .337 .387 .35 .337 BEVERAGE .411 .411 .411 .588 .588 .647 HACKERS .4 .3 .3 .4 .35 .35 REGBANKS .392 .285 .321 .392 .321 .285 GAMING .391 .26 .304 .347 .26 .347 SEMI .378 .297 .315 .378 .333 .396 RETAIL .377 .358 .358 .377 .32 .301 BIOTECH .358 .309 .265 .284 .265 .257 ELECTRON .356 .28 .286 .337 .286 .318 HOSPITAL .347 .26 .217 .26 .26 .304 ETFS .298 .157 .263 .385 .421 .491 OILGAS .19 .154 .14 .154 .147 .14 CHINA .12 .086 .086 .086 .086 .086 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
6/17/2019 This would seem to be a perfect time for the FED to try to push the market
up to and even past 27000 with a decisive cut in interest rates. But will they?
Powell does not want to look subservient to Trump. The operative Peerless
signal remains a Sell S12. If rates are, in fact, cut this week, I would think
the DJI will quickly spike to 26600, maybe 27000, depending on what Powell
says. In that event, cover your now limited short positions in DIA. Do not go
short again until the Closing Powers and A/D Line break their uptrends. For now
traders should hold only small short positions in DIA in hopes that the FOMC
disappoints and sits tight on rates. Use protective stops on your shorts of DIA
at 263.51.
The market is usually moved by changes in short-term interest rates, as much
as any factor. But when the economy and the market quickly get very weak,
lowering rates does not bring a reversal back up. Similarly, when the market is
very strong, raising rates often does not quickly cause a decline in stocks.
So, Tuesday and Wednesday, we get to see how the stock market reacts to what
should be an expected and obvious change downward in the FED's short-term rates,
namely the Federal Funds' goals that determine what is the cost of borrowing by
big banks from among one another. It seems obvious to me, at least, that the FOMC
will want to ratify formally what has already happened in practice. As you can see
in our IRX--X chart, the 13-week Treasury Bills' short-term rates have recently
dropped from 2.41% on 3/21/19 to 2.14% today. This is much lower than
the 2.5% target rate that the FED has previously announced for its Federal Funds rate.
Dropping the Federal Funds rate to 2.25% would simply be ratifying the current reality.
( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU )
With the Dollar strong, Inflation around 2% and Productivity outpacing real wage gains,
only slowly rising Gold prices would seem to be of concern to the FED's anti-Inflation
hawks. I suppose some on the FOMC may be waiting to see what the next Jobs'
nunbers are in two weeks, but this would otherwise seem like a perfect time for
them to formally drop the Federal Funds' rate to 2.25%. If they do this either today
or tomorrow, I would think the DJI will jump up 2%-2.5%. This would match what
happened in 3 of the 4 cases where Peerless gave a June Sell S12 in a bull market.
At that point, history suggests that the odds are one in three that the Sell S12 will
be followed by a decline to at least the lower band. In two of the three cases, 1929
and 1987, the DJI continued to rally and we then got a Buy B4 based on very good
breadth.
On the other hand, if the FED does not lower the Federal Funds' rates this week,
some might take it as a sign of confidence by the FED that the economy remains very
strong,but I suspect more traders will be disappointed and the DJI will fall back to 25000
fairly quickly.
That the A/D Line is still in an uptrend and the Closing Powers for the key ETFs
have not yet decisively broken their 21-day moving averages gives somewhat more
weight to the scenario that there will be a rate cut this week and the DJI will make
a nominal new high above 26700. So, use protective stops on your shorts of DIA
at 263.51.
Such an advance may then bring a Buy B4. But it will almost certainly bring a new
Sell S9V. If this happens, the odds would then still seem to favor a decline to the lower
band, but I would not take new short positions then until the rising A/D Line trend is
broken.
DJIA
DIA
13-Week IRX--X Rates
Dollar - A drop in rates could well cause the Dollar to weaken and complete its potential H/S pattern.
If that happens buy GLD.
Charts 6/17/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/17/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-17/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-17/BEARISH.htmTABLE 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/17/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.68 .17 260.88 13.2% Bullish ---- .068 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.9 7.74 349.33 15.7% ------- BLUE .009 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 289.37 .11 288.9 6.9% ------- RED -.091 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.74 1.1 183.4 16.1% ------- BLUE -.118 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.96 .08 347.41 -2.9% ------- RED -.019 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.24 .51 151.3 16.1% ------- BLUE -.058 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.23 -.95 72.44 -91.6% ------- RED .077 .085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 117.83 -2.42 137.9 -728.1% ------- RED -.087 -.25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 146.36 .78 151.04 -148.6% Bullish BLUE -.073 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.1 2.97 102.7 139.9% Bullish BLUE -.049 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.48 -.08 125.18 45.7% Bullish RED .19 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.5 .33 13.76 -33.5% Bearish BLUE -.151 -.224 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 3.7 .15 3.94 -345.2% Bearish BLUE -.292 -.497 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 3.7 .15 3.94 -345.2% Bullish BLUE -.269 -.876 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 26.32 .01 26.08 47.8% ------- ---- .036 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 26.32 .01 26.08 47.8% Bearish ---- .143 -.742 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.32 .01 26.08 47.8% ------- ---- .011 .725 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 26.32 .01 26.08 47.8% ------- ---- .012 4.169 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.32 .01 26.08 47.8% Bearish -----.074 .118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.9 .11 22.79 97% Bearish -----.076 .101 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190617 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 155 NEWLOWS 15 MAXCP 30 MINCP 10 TTTNH 18 TTTNL 23 FASTUP 50 FASTDOWN 71 CPCROSSA 94 CPCROSSD 129 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 6 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 133 REDSELL 86 AUGSELS7 12 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/17/19 Bullish = 18 Bearish = 24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .941 .961 .951 .951 .961 .98 INSURANC .814 .851 .888 .888 .888 .888 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .764 .705 .705 .764 UTILITY .725 .75 .725 .675 .575 .675 SOLAR .705 .764 .823 .823 .882 .823 JETS .7 .7 .8 .7 .6 .6 REIT .693 .612 .619 .578 .517 .523 GOLD .632 .632 .632 .612 .551 .428 DOWJONES .62 .586 .586 .586 .586 .586 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 FIDSTKS .583 .589 .583 .54 .524 .562 SP500 .565 .567 .589 .546 .555 .561 SP-100 .548 .537 .559 .516 .537 .58 DJI-13 .538 .384 .461 .461 .461 .461 AUTO .512 .512 .512 .461 .461 .461 INDEXES .51 .5 .586 .543 .596 .569 NASD-100 .51 .489 .552 .51 .541 .531 RUS-1000 .503 .5 .524 .49 .488 .498 =========================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 FOOD .5 .518 .518 .5 .462 .444 GREEN .5 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 =========================================================================================== MILITARY .482 .586 .655 .517 .517 .62 COMODITY .475 .5 .5 .475 .425 .4 CHEM .452 .49 .49 .49 .452 .415 FINANCE .431 .465 .465 .443 .465 .488 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 COMPUTER .428 .38 .476 .476 .476 .38 SOFTWARE .419 .419 .451 .451 .435 .483 BEVERAGE .411 .411 .588 .588 .647 .529 INFRA .388 .388 .444 .361 .388 .305 RETAIL .358 .358 .377 .32 .301 .301 NIFTY .35 .333 .421 .35 .438 .473 TRANSP .35 .35 .5 .4 .4 .4 INDMATER .337 .337 .387 .35 .337 .3 BIOTECH .306 .265 .284 .265 .254 .268 HACKERS .3 .3 .4 .35 .35 .35 SEMI .297 .315 .378 .333 .387 .414 REGBANKS .285 .321 .392 .321 .285 .25 ELECTRON .282 .288 .339 .288 .314 .339 GAMING .26 .304 .347 .26 .347 .347 HOSPITAL .26 .217 .26 .26 .304 .26 ETFS .157 .263 .385 .421 .491 .473 OILGAS .154 .14 .154 .147 .14 .133 CHINA .086 .086 .086 .086 .086 .086 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0========================================================================
6/14/2019 The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S12. Stay short DIA, no stops, and
some of the bearish MINCPs. There have been 4 previous Sell S12s in bull markets.
Two were very profitable if shorted at time of the next Peerless signals and two
brought small losses. Given how extended the bull market is, I would expect the
big money distribution to win out here, especially since we have not seen a rally
even as short-term rates have dropped sharply recently. Though the NYSE A/D Line
is still rising, it may bearishly break its uptrend if the FOMC disappoints the market
on Wednesday this week when it makes public its interest rate intentions. We will just
have to wait and see for now.
DJIA
DIA
SPY
NASDAQ
QQQ
June S12s in Bull Markets since 1929Date Signals DJI Gain Paper loss ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1) 19290617 S12 319.3 -.029 328.6 -.0291 6/26 la/ma=1.04 aroc=-.031 P=-46 (+12) IP21=-.046 V=-486 OBVPct = .164 Above a slightly rising 65-dma in over-extended bull market. Fed was injecting funds into banks, market and economy. This was reversed by B4 9 days later. 19290626 B4 328.6 .075 none 0 ============================================================================= 2) 19810615 S12 1011.99 +.172 perfect 0 la/ma=1.021 aroc=+.469 P=+146 (+0) IP21=-.001 V=+3 OBVPct = .013 Prices immediately gave way. H/S formed. Bull market ended. FED was raising rates well above 10% to stop oil-driven inflation. No buy signal until October. ============================================================================= 3) 19870608 S12 2351.64 -.04 2445.51 -.0399 6/22 la/ma=1.026 aroc=+.088 P=-32 (+23) IP21=-.045 V=-4 OBVPct = -.187 Clinched 6/23 2439.73 after a B4. So S12 could have been avoided. 19870622 B4 2445.51 .105 2409.76 -.0146 7/1 Federal Funds Rate was rising at time of S12 - 6/8/1987 1987-04-29,6 1987-04-30,6.5 1987-07-02,6.625 ============================================================================= 4) 20110630 S12 12414.34 +.102 12724.41 -.026 7/21 la/ma=1.027 aroc=+.122 P=+78 (+162) IP21=-.067 V=-116 OBVPct = .012 Federal Funds Rate was flat at time of S12 - 6/30/2011. ============================================================================= Current S12 5) 20180611 S12 26048.51 ? la/ma=1.020 aroc=+.049 P=+97 (-42) IP21=-.016 V=-82 OBVPct = .07 Short-term rates are falling unusually fast.
Charts 6/14/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/14/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-14/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-14/BEARISH.htmTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/14/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.51 -.05 260.99 24.2% Bullish BLUE .072 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 347.16 -1.7 353.8 -93.3% Bearish RED .011 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 289.26 -.32 288.97 27.9% Bullish ---- -.065 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 182.64 -.78 183.15 43.8% ------- BLUE -.11 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.88 -2.39 347.16 24.8% ------- RED -.004 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.73 -1.34 151.75 28.7% ------- RED -.068 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.18 .56 72.55 57% Bullish BLUE .119 .101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 120.25 -10.35 136.87 -254.3% ------- BLUE -.081 -.238 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 145.58 -4.08 150.79 -29.1% Bullish RED -.051 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.13 -.97 103.21 -33.8% ------- RED -.101 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.56 -.04 125.33 -1.2% Bullish RED .174 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.17 -.43 13.59 -147.9% Bearish RED -.194 -.239 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.79 -.07 22.46 104% Bearish RED -.095 .086 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-14 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 161 NEWLOWS 35 MAXCP 26 MINCP 38 TTTNH 24 TTTNL 63 FASTUP 39 FASTDOWN 68 CPCROSSA 57 CPCROSSD 145 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 2 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 121 REDSELL 86 AUGSELS7 14 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/14/19 Bullish = 17 Bearish = 24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .951 .951 .961 .98 .98 INSURANC .851 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .705 .705 .764 .764 SOLAR .764 .823 .823 .882 .823 .823 UTILITY .75 .725 .675 .575 .675 .725 JETS .7 .8 .7 .6 .6 .7 GOLD .632 .632 .612 .551 .428 .551 REIT .612 .619 .578 .517 .53 .585 FIDSTKS .589 .583 .54 .524 .567 .529 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 .529 DOWJONES .586 .586 .586 .586 .62 .586 MILITARY .586 .655 .517 .517 .62 .62 SP500 .567 .589 .546 .555 .563 .538 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 SP-100 .537 .559 .516 .537 .591 .526 FOOD .518 .518 .5 .462 .444 .481 AUTO .512 .512 .461 .461 .461 .461 N=17 ============================================================================================= COMODITY .5 .5 .475 .425 .4 .475 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .666 INDEXES .5 .586 .543 .596 .569 .51 RUS-1000 .5 .524 .488 .49 .501 .483 ============================================================================================= CHEM .49 .49 .49 .452 .433 .377 NASD-100 .489 .552 .51 .541 .541 .468 FINANCE .465 .465 .443 .465 .488 .386 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .285 SOFTWARE .419 .451 .451 .435 .483 .467 BEVERAGE .411 .588 .588 .647 .529 .47 INFRA .388 .444 .361 .388 .305 .361 DJI-13 .384 .461 .461 .461 .538 .461 COMPUTER .38 .476 .476 .476 .428 .333 RETAIL .358 .377 .32 .301 .301 .245 TRANSP .35 .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 INDMATER .337 .387 .35 .337 .3 .275 NIFTY .333 .421 .35 .438 .491 .385 REGBANKS .321 .392 .321 .285 .25 .25 SEMI .315 .378 .333 .387 .414 .351 GAMING .304 .347 .26 .347 .347 .304 HACKERS .3 .4 .35 .35 .35 .35 ELECTRON .286 .337 .286 .312 .337 .299 BIOTECH .263 .284 .265 .254 .268 .26 ETFS .263 .385 .421 .491 .473 .421 HOSPITAL .217 .26 .26 .304 .26 .347 OILGAS .14 .154 .147 .14 .133 .154 CHINA .086 .086 .086 .086 .086 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=24
====================================================================
6/13/2019 The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S12. Stay short DIA, no stops, and
some of the bearish MINCPs. Today's last minute jump of 100 points
in the DJI was very suspicious. So, is the low volume and the fact that there
were again more new lows than new highs on the NASDAQ. The NYSE A/D Line
bullishly scored a new high. But this was to be expected given the drop
in interest rates and the additional appeal this gives to bonds, bond funds,
utilities and defensive dividend-paying stocks like HSY and PG. Big money is obviously
more than a little concerned and is selling into rallies. This creates a ceiling for
DJI. A pullback to the lower band would, therefore, seem likely now.
Morgan Stanley just issied a warning about how fast business is slowing down.
See
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-14/record-drop-in-morgan-stanley-business-gauge-flags-economic-woe?srnd=premium
Short-term interest rates plunged again today. We are told that this is
because traders are anticipating a rate cut next week. But it may also be
because borrowing demand is waning, not just world-wide, but in the US.
Traders should be worried that a FED rate cut
will fail to boost this market. That would be a
big problem for the market. Stay short DIA.
Wall Street and the Key Indexes
Cannot Get Too Far ahead of the Overall Economy.
The very low unemployment rate does not begin to tell the whole story.
Lots and lots of people at Walmart, Vons, Burger King and the San Diego
Credit Union tell me that they are not allowed to work full-time and typically
work just 20 hours a week so that their bosses do not have to pay them
the benefits of a full-time worker. And when you factor in how wages for years
have hardly kept up with inflation and certainly not rents, you can see that
consumer buying power for the masses is very limited, but their debts
keep growing. No wonder, bank stocks are lagging. The FED would
seem to have little choice but to lower its rates. But is that enough? The
crash of 1929 occurred in large part because it was made too easy to buy
the DJI even as the underlying economy was topping out.
We have our own problems with an exaggerated run-up in "value" stocks,
says Warren Buffet and too much debt, at every level. Any mistake that the
FED makes now could be very costly. And if Trump is wrong about the benefits
of tariffs, we will be in worse trouble.
Very low rates since 2008 have pushed the stock market way up. But there
is a limit in how much they can do, especially when Wall Street wants to
a resolution soon of Trump's trade war every bit as much as it wants even
lower rates. What if a rate cut cannot do the job? See below how the rate
cuts did not help in the Summer of 1992. People tell us that 1995 shows
how rate cuts helped launch the bull market then. But that Summer's rate
cuts were very limited and other bullish factors were more involved. Another problem
for the FED now is that if it uses up its monetary power this Summer, it will have that
much left to use to prop the market up if it falls back 10% or more in October.
See the charts below. They show the Short-Term Rates on the top and the DJI
at the bottom. A study of the inter-relationship between these short-term rates
and the DJI is sorely needed. I hope my new books will help clarify many of the
connections between the DJI's movements and short-term rates. Until then, I will
post these charts since 1990 next week for your study and reference.
Charts 6/13/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/13/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-13/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-13/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/13/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.56 1.11 260.25 73.8% Bullish BLUE .098 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.86 1.83 353.7 -25.4% Bullish BLUE .044 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 289.58 1.19 287.65 83.1% Bullish BLUE-.036 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.42 1.08 181.04 160% Bullish BLUE-.075 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 349.27 2.22 345.16 83.2% Bullish BLUE .055 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.07 1.6 150.86 108.3% ------- BLUE .001 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.62 .05 71.36 45.3% ------- RED .126 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.57 .81 21.94 518.3% ------- BLUE-.039 -.199 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 130.6 2.43 126.97 286.7% ------- RED -.068 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 149.66 1.27 146.45 367.1% Bullish RED -.013 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.1 .77 103.83 93.6% Bullish BLUE-.042 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.6 .77 126.59 28.6% Bullish BLUE .182 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.6 .49 13.57 63% Bearish BLUE -.131 -.227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.86 .32 22.32 140.2% Bearish BLUE-.067 .083 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190613 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 204 NEWLOWS 8 MAXCP 22 MINCP 15 TTTNH 17 TTTNL 35 FASTUP 63 FASTDOWN 46 CPCROSSA 147 CPCROSSD 32 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 1 HIUPPCT 21 LOWACCUM 127 REDSELL 90 AUGSELS7 11 TRAPDOOR 10 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/13/19 Bullish = 21 Bearish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .951 .961 .98 .98 .922 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 SOLAR .823 .823 .882 .823 .823 .823 JETS .8 .7 .6 .6 .7 .6 HOMEBLDG .764 .705 .705 .764 .764 .705 UTILITY .725 .675 .575 .675 .725 .775 MILITARY .655 .517 .517 .62 .62 .586 GOLD .632 .612 .551 .428 .551 .571 REIT .619 .578 .517 .53 .585 .571 SP500 .589 .546 .555 .563 .54 .508 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .647 .529 .47 .411 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 DOWJONES .586 .586 .586 .62 .586 .517 INDEXES .586 .543 .596 .569 .51 .365 FIDSTKS .583 .54 .524 .567 .535 .502 SP-100 .559 .516 .537 .591 .537 .473 NASD-100 .552 .51 .541 .541 .479 .364 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .545 .5 RUS-1000 .524 .488 .488 .503 .486 .455 FOOD .518 .5 .462 .444 .481 .425 AUTO .512 .461 .461 .461 .461 .384 ================================================================================================ COMODITY .5 .475 .425 .4 .475 .4 EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .666 .5 TRANSP .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 .35 ================================================================================================ CHEM .49 .49 .452 .433 .396 .32 COMPUTER .476 .476 .476 .428 .333 .285 FINANCE .465 .443 .465 .488 .397 .431 DJI-13 .461 .461 .461 .538 .461 .307 SOFTWARE .451 .451 .435 .483 .467 .387 INFRA .444 .361 .388 .305 .361 .388 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .428 .285 .428 NIFTY .421 .35 .438 .491 .385 .35 HACKERS .4 .35 .35 .35 .35 .2 REGBANKS .392 .321 .285 .25 .25 .25 INDMATER .387 .35 .337 .3 .275 .3 ETFS .385 .421 .491 .473 .421 .263 SEMI .378 .333 .387 .414 .36 .297 RETAIL .377 .32 .301 .301 .245 .264 GAMING .347 .26 .347 .347 .304 .304 ELECTRON .337 .286 .312 .337 .305 .28 BIOTECH .282 .265 .254 .268 .263 .241 HOSPITAL .26 .26 .304 .26 .304 .217 OILGAS .156 .148 .141 .134 .156 .148 CHINA .086 .086 .086 .086 .068 .051 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
6/12/2019 The operative Peerless signal is a Sell S12. In years before a Presidential
Election these June S12s have a mixed record when they occur with the
DJI within 5% of its yearly highs. Two of the three worked out eventually,
but even in these case, first the DJI rose another 2.1% to 2.4%. I also take
as a sign of the bullishness of this period of time that in all the years since
1931, there are only three cases of June S9s and S12s, in these years - 1931,
1935, 1939... 2015... 2019.Sell S9s and S12s in Junes in Presidential Election Years have a mixed record.
Gain/ Maximum Paper
(Loss) Loss
19870608 S12 2351.64 -.04 2445.51 -.0399 6/22
19990630 S9 10970.80 .029 11209.8 -.0217 7/16
20110630 S12 12414.34 .075 12724.4 -.0249 7/21
The FED is apparently very close to lowering their very short-term
"Federal Funds rates". This will likely cause a spike in the stock market.
The FOMC meets in the middle of next week. It's true that Bonds are now
favored by the wealthy over stocks. But I would think stocks will surely benefit,
too, along with the overall economy. It seems likely the DJI will get much closer
to 26500 and the 3.5% upper band. With the A/D Line in an uptrend, I
think we should cover the DIA shorts if DJIA closes above 26280 tomorrow.
Today, overnight lending rates for big banks fell sharply. See the chart
above. The FED is not enforcing its 2.25% lower level. That means the
the FOMC will next week probably be lowering its Federal Funds rate to as low
as 2%. It is hard to imagine that this will not encourage more buying of
NYSE stocks, strictly as dividend plays. The lower rates will likely slowly
trickle down to ordinary borrowers. Since there is no indication yet that
lower rates will weaken the Dollar in a noticeable way or spur a rise in
the still low CPI rate of Inflation and boost wages gains vs. productivity
numbers, I would think that the DJI resistance at 26500 will be attacked soon.
And, it is quite possible, that a sharp rate cut will bring a powerful Summer
Rally.
Charts 6/12/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/1219 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-12/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-12/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/12/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 260.45 -.43 257.72 91.1% Bullish RED .084 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 347.03 -2.3 350.64 -24.5% Bullish RED .03 -.106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.39 -.51 284.8 94.7% Bullish RED -.051 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 182.34 -1.06 177.61 170% Bullish RED -.068 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.05 -.36 343.51 72.3% Bullish RED .05 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.47 .17 149.8 42.4% Bullish BLUE -.011 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.57 -.87 70.97 115.5% Bullish RED .122 .109 stongest --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 22.76 -.32 21.26 290.5% ------- RED -.054 -.242 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 128.17 -9.73 123.11 387.6% ------- RED -.054 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 148.39 -2.65 138.86 484.4% Bullish RED .007 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.33 .63 102.17 7.3% Bullish BLUE -.052 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.83 .65 125.88 14.3% Bullish BLUE .17 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.11 -.65 13.43 -73.9% Bearish RED -.198 -.254 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.54 -.25 22.23 120.8% Bearish RED -.047 .079 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190612 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 174 NEWLOWS 44 MAXCP 23 MINCP 47 TTTNH 13 TTTNL 46 FASTUP 45 FASTDOWN 85 CPCROSSA 87 CPCROSSD 48 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 3 HIUPPCT 21 LOWACCUM 133 REDSELL 87 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 11 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/12/19 Bullish = 18 Bearish = 25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .961 .98 .98 .912 .902 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 SOLAR .823 .882 .823 .823 .823 .764 HOMEBLDG .705 .705 .764 .764 .705 .705 JETS .7 .6 .6 .7 .6 .6 UTILITY .675 .575 .675 .725 .775 .75 GOLD .612 .551 .428 .551 .571 .53 BEVERAGE .588 .647 .529 .47 .411 .411 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 .529 DOWJONES .586 .586 .62 .586 .517 .517 REIT .578 .517 .53 .585 .571 .585 SP500 .546 .555 .563 .54 .512 .495 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .545 .5 .454 FIDSTKS .54 .524 .567 .535 .502 .491 INDEXES .532 .596 .569 .51 .37 .327 MILITARY .517 .517 .62 .62 .586 .62 SP-100 .516 .537 .591 .537 .473 .473 NASD-100 .51 .541 .541 .479 .395 .343 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .666 .5 .5 FOOD .5 .462 .444 .481 .425 .407 =============================================================================================== CHEM .49 .452 .433 .396 .339 .245 RUS-1000 .488 .488 .501 .487 .46 .443 COMPUTER .476 .476 .428 .333 .285 .333 COMODITY .475 .425 .4 .475 .4 .4 AUTO .461 .461 .461 .461 .384 .384 DJI-13 .461 .461 .538 .461 .307 .307 SOFTWARE .451 .435 .483 .467 .403 .37 FINANCE .443 .465 .488 .397 .42 .454 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .285 .428 .428 ETFS .421 .491 .473 .421 .263 .21 TRANSP .4 .4 .4 .4 .35 .4 INFRA .361 .388 .305 .361 .388 .333 INDMATER .354 .341 .303 .278 .303 .265 HACKERS .35 .35 .35 .35 .2 .3 NIFTY .35 .438 .491 .385 .368 .298 SEMI .333 .387 .414 .36 .315 .279 REGBANKS .321 .285 .25 .25 .25 .285 RETAIL .32 .301 .301 .245 .283 .226 ELECTRON .286 .312 .337 .305 .292 .267 BIOTECH .263 .255 .269 .263 .247 .26 GAMING .26 .347 .347 .304 .304 .217 HOSPITAL .26 .304 .26 .304 .217 .217 OILGAS .148 .141 .134 .156 .148 .141 CHINA .086 .086 .086 .068 .051 .051 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
6/11/2019 Today our Buy B2 was replaced by a Peerless Sell S12 because our Accumulation
Index (IP21) and P-I turned negative today as the DJI closed 2% over the 21-dma.
Breadth was weak, though Up Volume was more than Down Volume. There were
only 22 more NYSE advancers than decliners and the NASDAQ showed 90 new lows
today compared to 72 new highs.
My sense is that traders want action out of Powell and the FED. Words are not
enough. Traders are again getting nervous again with the DJI above 26000. News
that Trump is behind Biden in the Quinipiac polls also did not help the markets.
So, another test of 25000 may be needed. Sell DIA and sell some of it short.
The DJI closed 200 points below its trading peak soon after its opening. Professionals
were heavy sellers today and overseas sellers are dominant this morning. The selling
today after the opening caused a bearish "red tulip" (or "red popcicle") on our candle-stick
charts of the DJI, DIA, SPY and QQQ. At the very least, these red candle-sticks
usually bring hesitations. With the bull market so old, with thick resistance up to 26700
on the DJI and because there were so many bearish head/shoulders patterns recently,
we may see a bigger decline. Don't take a chance. Sell DIA and go short DIA and
more bearish MINCPs.
"Clinching" ...
I suggested that we wait for an S9 to be clinched. But I am not so sure that we should
do this wiith a June Sell S12 in a bull market. There have been four such cases, 1929, 1981,
1987 and 2010. "Clinching" (waiting for 30 more down than up on the NYSE at the
close) would only have been advantageous in 1987. So, despite the bullish streak of
6 up DJI days in Junes generally and the bullishness of Summers in the third year year of a
Presidential Election, I think we have to take the Sell S12. We have to take profits
in DIA and even sell it short now.
The Quinipiac polls put Biden ahead of Trump. Perhaps, the market is spooked by
this. But the polls could be wrong. Biden is not exactly inspriational. The Democrats
are badly split. The Quinipiac polls do not tell us how many of the pro-Biden people
will actually come out and vote for him. So, if you sell short DIA do it in limited amounts.
I would rather sell short more of our bearish MINCPs and take profits in most of
the bullish MAXCPs.
June S12s since 1929Date Signals DJI Gain Paper loss ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19290617 S12 319.3 -.029 328.6 -.0291 6/26 Clinched 6/19 316.4 (Bull Market) 19290626 B4 328.6 .075 none 019700616 S12 706.26 .052 716.11 -.0139 6/22 (End of Bear Market) 19700617 S9 704.68 .05 716.11 -.0162 6/22 19700707 B2 669.36 .063 perfect 019740607 S12 853.72 .271 859.67 -.0069 6/10 (On-going Bear Market) 19740611 S9 852.08 .270 none 0 19740927 B8 621.95 .053 584.56 -.0601 10/419810615 S12 1011.99 .172 perfect 0 Clinched 6/19 1003.33 (End of Bull Market) 19811009 S9 873.00 .04 none 0 19811023 B9 873.99 .04 830.96 -.0492 10/2619870608 S12 2351.64 -.04 2445.51 -.0399 6/22 (Bull Market) Clinched 6/23 2439.73 after a B4. So S12 could have been avoided. 19870609 S9 2352.7 -.039 2445.51 -.0394 6/22 19870610 S8 2353.61 -.039 2445.51 -.039 6/22 19870618 S8 2408.13 -.016 2445.51 -.0155 6/22 19870622 B4 2445.51 .105 2409.76 -.0146 7/120100616 S12 10409.46 .061 10450.6 -.0039 6/16 (Bull Market) 20100630 B8 9774.02 .079 9686.48 -.0089 7/2 Clinched on day of Sell S12. ============================================================================== Bull Markets: Gains sell selling short were -2.9%, +17.2%, -4.0%,+6.1% or an average decline of 4.1%
Charts 6/11/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/11/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-11/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-11/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/11/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 260.88 -.11 255.73 140.3% Bullish RED .05 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 349.33 -4.47 348.75 67.2% Bullish RED -.065 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.9 -.07 282.96 146.9% Bullish RED -.08 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.4 .25 176.21 237.7% Bullish RED -.102 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.41 .25 342.06 92.9% Bullish RED -.001 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.3 -.45 150.19 37.9% ------- RED -.069 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.44 -.11 69.92 335.5% Bullish RED .079 .164 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.08 .69 21.48 107.1% ------- BLUE-.066 -.229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 137.9 1.03 118.2 691.2% ------- RED -.066 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 151.04 .25 134.41 788.1% Bullish RED -.041 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.7 -.51 103.18 -15% ------- RED -.117 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.18 -.15 125.47 1.2% Bullish BLUE .194 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.76 .17 13.31 44.4% Bearish -----.173 -.208 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.79 .33 22 166.6% Bearish -----.025 .1 ^^^^^ Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190611 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 113 NEWLOWS 28 MAXCP 15 MINCP 35 TTTNH 15 TTTNL 58 FASTUP 55 FASTDOWN 108 CPCROSSA 48 CPCROSSD 147 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 1 HIUPPCT 15 LOWACCUM 136 REDSELL 87 AUGSELS7 7 TRAPDOOR 12 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/11/19 Bullish = 18 Bearish = 26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .98 .98 .912 .902 .902 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .851 SOLAR .882 .823 .823 .823 .764 .705 HOMEBLDG .705 .764 .764 .705 .705 .647 BEVERAGE .647 .529 .47 .411 .411 .294 JETS .6 .6 .7 .6 .6 .5 INDEXES .596 .569 .51 .37 .333 .311 GUNS .588 .588 .529 .529 .529 .47 DOWJONES .586 .62 .586 .517 .517 .482 UTILITY .575 .675 .725 .775 .75 .675 SP500 .555 .563 .54 .512 .493 .422 GOLD .551 .428 .551 .571 .53 .591 GREEN .545 .545 .545 .5 .454 .409 NASD-100 .541 .541 .479 .395 .343 .281 SP-100 .537 .591 .537 .473 .473 .419 FIDSTKS .524 .567 .535 .502 .481 .432 MILITARY .517 .62 .62 .586 .62 .448 REIT .517 .53 .585 .571 .591 .401 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .666 .5 .5 .5 =============================================================================================== ETFS .491 .473 .421 .263 .21 .228 RUS-1000 .488 .501 .486 .462 .445 .384 COMPUTER .476 .428 .333 .285 .333 .238 FINANCE .465 .488 .397 .42 .454 .454 FOOD .462 .444 .481 .425 .407 .425 AUTO .461 .461 .461 .384 .384 .333 DJI-13 .461 .538 .461 .307 .307 .307 CHEM .452 .433 .396 .339 .264 .264 NIFTY .438 .491 .385 .368 .298 .245 SOFTWARE .435 .483 .467 .403 .387 .338 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .285 .428 .428 .428 COMODITY .425 .4 .475 .4 .4 .4 TRANSP .4 .4 .4 .35 .4 .3 INFRA .388 .305 .361 .388 .361 .333 SEMI .387 .414 .36 .315 .279 .27 HACKERS .38 .38 .38 .238 .333 .238 GAMING .347 .347 .304 .304 .217 .26 INDMATER .337 .3 .275 .3 .262 .25 ELECTRON .312 .337 .305 .292 .267 .267 HOSPITAL .304 .26 .304 .217 .217 .304 RETAIL .301 .301 .245 .283 .226 .188 REGBANKS .285 .25 .25 .25 .25 .285 BIOTECH .254 .268 .263 .246 .254 .268 OILGAS .14 .133 .154 .147 .147 .14 CHINA .086 .086 .068 .051 .051 .051 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================6/10/2019 The operative Buy B2 has brought 6 straight up-days for the DJI.
The DJI has now closed today 2.0% above its 21-day ma. Most likely,
Peerless will give a Sell S9V if the DJI closes another 0.5% higher.
However, wait for it to be clinched with 30 more down than up on the
NYSE close tomorrow or on a following day up until we see a new
Peerless Buy signal. Why?
1) Because this is the year before a Presidential Election. Expect
Republicans in Washington, in Congress, in the White House and in
the FED (despite what they say publicly) to do all that they can to push
up the general economy. (If the Democrats were in power, they would
do exactly the same. That's why the third years in the 4 year cycle bring
DJI advances averaging +15% since 1915, but the other years bring gains
of only 5.5%. For this reason, too, the gains from May to the end of July |
are much higher in the third years than in the other years. Mostly, it is
the FED that brings this stimulus. The stock market acts as a key transmission
in this. It takes 6 months or more for a rate reduction to move through
the economy.
2) Our studies show two prominent cases, June 1929 and June 1987,
when our indicators were weak and still the DJI marched significantly
higher. There were H/S patterns also in these years. But when the June
rally came, traders would have done better by waiting for the clinching. Those
who did not would have sold prematurely in June at the upper band. The
DJI did not top out until August 25th in 1987 and September 3rd in 1929.
It moved between 15% and 20% higher.
3). Our current up-day streak is quite bullish. It turns out that 6 or more straight up days
in June is very likely a harbinger of much higher prices. There are a few minor
exceptions. But, as you can see below, an up-day streak like we are now in is
usually quite bullish. I counted 16 such cases in June since 1915. I would rate
the 6-straight up-days in 11 or 12 cases as extremely bullish signs. Yet only one was
followed by a decline deeper than 5%.
Year UpStreak DJI on last day Subsequent Action
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1915 6 67.95 DJI rose to 99.20 at year's end.
1924 6 93.60 strongly up for rest of year and 1925.
1929 18/19 up 343.3 rose to 381.1 on Sept 3, 1929.
1938 6 130.4 hit 144.9 on 7/25
1954 13/14 up 333.5 hit 404.4 at end of year.
1955 10/10 up 449.8 hit 487.5 on 9/23.
1964 6 822.8 hit 891.7 at end of year.
1967 6 880.61 fell 3% and then rose to 943
1970 8 735.08 fell 4% and then began new bull market.
1975 6 873.12 fell 8% immediately before rallying for a year.
1987 10 2439.73 rallied steadily to 2701.85 on 8/26
1995 6 4553.68 rallied to 5182.15 on 12/14
1997 7 7782.04 rallied to 8259.31 on 8/6.
2003 6 9062.79 rallied to 10453.92 at end of year.
2005 7 10623.07 fell 4% to bottom on 10/13.
2014 6 16937.26 fell 5% to bottom on 10/16.
DJI - The H/S in DJI has failed. The DJI is now back above its 65-dma and the A/D Line
has res-established an uptrend. The H/S patterns elsewhere are being aborted in
similar fashion, but their appearance is still a warning for the general market in the
not too distant future. Stick with long positions in DIA. It is the leader.
NASDAQ
SPY
QQQ
Charts 6/10/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/10/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-10/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-10/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/10/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 260.99 .74 253.65 244.7% Bullish RED .088 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 353.8 .1 344.62 214.6% Bullish RED 0 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.97 1.32 280.53 255.2% Bullish RED -.006 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.15 2.11 174.91 370.2% Bullish BLUE -.031 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.16 2 341.02 214% Bullish BLUE .046 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.75 .89 150.16 180% Bullish BLUE .006 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.55 1.19 67.71 647.5% Bullish RED .146 .167 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 22.39 .45 22.61 372.4% ------- ---- -.013 -.256 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 136.87 9.9 120.6 1252.3% Bullish BLUE -.018 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 150.79 4.34 128.99 1256.7% Bullish BLUE .021 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.21 -.62 103.01 104.7% Bullish RED -.014 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.33 -1.26 125.15 8.8% Bullish RED .177 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.59 .02 13.64 70.5% Bearish RED -.159 -.228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.46 .14 22.05 85.8% ------- ---- .006 .064 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-10 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 215 NEWLOWS 27 MAXCP 108 MINCP 26 TTTNH 49 TTTNL 37 FASTUP 115 FASTDOWN 75 CPCROSSA 66 CPCROSSD 61 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 5 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 127 REDSELL 86 AUGSELS7 7 TRAPDOOR 17 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/10/19 Bullish = 19 Bearish = 25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .98 .912 .902 .912 .912 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .888 .851 .814 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .764 .705 .647 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .705 .705 .705 .588 UTILITY .675 .725 .775 .75 .675 .625DOWJONES .62 .586 .517 .517 .482 .31 MILITARY .62 .62 .586 .62 .448 .379 JETS .6 .7 .6 .6 .5 .5 SP-100 .591 .537 .473 .473 .43 .29 GUNS .588 .529 .529 .529 .47 .47INDEXES .569 .51 .37 .333 .306 .252 FIDSTKS .567 .535 .502 .481 .432 .297 SP500 .563 .54 .512 .493 .428 .33 GREEN .545 .545 .5 .454 .409 .272 NASD-100 .541 .479 .395 .343 .302 .187DJI-13 .538 .461 .307 .307 .307 .153 REIT .53 .585 .571 .591 .428 .442 BEVERAGE .529 .47 .411 .411 .294 .352 RUS-1000 .502 .486 .461 .447 .391 .302 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU .5 .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY .491 .385 .368 .298 .263 .157 FINANCE .488 .397 .42 .454 .443 .284 SOFTWARE .483 .467 .403 .387 .354 .241 ETFS .473 .421 .263 .21 .228 .228 AUTO .461 .461 .384 .384 .333 .23FOOD .444 .481 .425 .407 .425 .388 CHEM .433 .396 .339 .264 .283 .15 BIGBANKS .428 .285 .428 .428 .428 .142 COMPUTER .428 .333 .285 .333 .238 .142 GOLD .428 .551 .571 .53 .551 .571SEMI .414 .36 .315 .279 .279 .189 COMODITY .4 .475 .4 .4 .4 .375 TRANSP .4 .4 .35 .4 .3 .2 HACKERS .38 .38 .238 .333 .285 .142 GAMING .347 .304 .304 .217 .26 .217ELECTRON .337 .305 .292 .267 .267 .165 INFRA .305 .361 .388 .361 .333 .305 RETAIL .301 .245 .283 .226 .188 .132 INDMATER .3 .275 .3 .262 .237 .187 BIOTECH .265 .263 .246 .254 .265 .221HOSPITAL .26 .304 .217 .217 .304 .217 REGBANKS .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .071 OILGAS .133 .154 .147 .147 .14 .126 CHINA .086 .068 .051 .051 .051 .051 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0==========================================================================
6/7/2019 The operative Buy B2 has brought 5 straight up-days for the DJI. But now the
DJI has risen to the 1.8% upper band. If it closes at 26175 or higher tomorrow,
Peerless will likely give us a Sell S9V because the DJI will then be above the 2.45%
upper band with the V-Indicator negative. But given the extra bullishness of the Summer
Rallies in the third year of the four-year Presidential cycle, I think we should wait
in the event of a Sell S9V for this Sell to be clinched by having the number of NYSE
decliners fall below advancers by 30 or more on the close of the day of the Sell or
on a subsequent day up until Peerless gives a new Buy.
I think we have to be cautious about telling the DJI to decline right now. Recall how
the DJI kept rising in the early Summer of 1929 and 1987 despite the Peerless
Sells at the upper band and in the July 2011 case when the Sell S9V did produce
a 17% sell-off, wait until the clinching would not have mattered much.
We are now in the point of time of the four-year Presidential when we should expect
the FED, the President and Congress to do all they to boost the stock market and the
DJI so that its rise will tend to boost the US economy through the mechanism of
"trickle down". Most of the Public can be expected to vote their pocket-books and
wallets, above all else. They care much less about Trump's character flaws than their
pay-checks. Only a few of the Democrats running for President have fashioned a
populist economic agenda that might make in-roads among those Americans who have
been left out of the Wall Street boom and do not have full 40 hour work-weeks. And
even where they have a strong economic message based on Gilded Age size wealth
gaps. my historical studies show Democratic populists losing election after election in good
economic times. (Consider Williams Jennings Bryan who lost three straight times:
1896, 1900 and 1904).
Expect the FED to lower rates. Powell is worth $100 million. He got this rich being
a Washington lawyer. So, he knows how to do what his Republican clients tell him.
The Jobs numbers did show weakening in the last report. So, the case for a drop in
rates can easily be made now because of (1) how strong the Dollar is, (2) how weak labor
demands are (Productivity is out-stripping real wages very handily.) and (3) how overseas
Economies are softening. Recall the 1927 case I have mentioned when cutting rates in
the Summer then began the wild boom and bubble in stocks that did not end until
September 1929 after the US Discount Rate was lifted from 5% to 6%!
Another element now is tonight's announcement that United Technology and
Raytheon want to merge. Under most circumstances, this would probably be deemed
highly anti-competitive and tending towards monopoly. But I doubt if the Trump
Administration will block this merger. To do so would hurt an important component
in the DJI. UTX should benefit a lot. This merger will serve to boost the DJI a lot now, just
as the buyout of General Foods (a DJI component) by Phillip Morris did in 1985.
Stay Long DIA, Bullish MAXCPs and Short A Few MINCPs
The broader market is lagging. Only 41% of all 6000 stocks we follow are now above their 65-dma. There were 147 new 12 month lows on the NYSE and NASDAQ. This
is not an insigificant number. And I found a lot more bearish-looking MINCP stocks
than bullish MAXCPs. One would think that the broader market will have to come
alive if a new leg up for this elderly bull market. That is asking a lot. If the laggards
have not been able to stay in uptrends when Unemployment is officially at a 50-year
low and interest rates are under 3%, I doubt if they are suddenly turn around. But they
may. So we should keep watching these statistics. But for now I would stay short
some Bearish MINCPs. The odds are good that they will make more new lows.
DJI is back above resistance of 65-dma.
27000 would seem to be next resistance.
NYSE A/D Line is bullishly uptrending again.
But in Summers we can get S9Vs if DJI
reaches 2.5% band and V-I is negative.
Charts 6/7/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/9/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-9/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-9/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/6/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 260.25 2.53 248.5 238% Bullish BLUE .178 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 353.7 3.06 338.89 175.3% Bullish BLUE .068 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 287.65 2.85 274.57 221.4% Bullish BLUE .065 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 181.04 3.43 170.12 203.1% Bullish BLUE .021 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.16 1.65 332.57 222.4% Bullish BLUE .104 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.86 1.06 146.37 168.4% Bullish BLUE .076 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.36 .39 63.65 572.3% Bullish BLUE .236 .176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 21.94 .68 20.78 373.3% ------- BLUE .129 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 126.97 3.86 107.02 911.9% Bullish BLUE .008 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 146.45 7.59 117.31 872.5% Bullish BLUE .097 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.83 1.66 101.06 188.9% Bullish BLUE .05 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.59 .71 125.11 130.4% Bullish RED .169 .008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OIH 13.57 .14 13.4 183.2% Bearish BLUE-.099 -.217 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.32 .09 22.08 154.5% Bearish -----.009 .056Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190607 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 327 NEWLOWS 27 MAXCP 108 MINCP 26 TTTNH 61 TTTNL 48 FASTUP 113 FASTDOWN 83 CPCROSSA 108 CPCROSSD 33 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 1 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 127 REDSELL 91 AUGSELS7 6 TRAPDOOR 20Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/7/19 Bullish =17 Bearish =18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .912 .902 .912 .912 .932 INSURANC .888 .888 .888 .851 .814 .703 SOLAR .823 .823 .764 .705 .647 .647 HOMEBLDG .764 .705 .705 .705 .647 .47 UTILITY .725 .775 .75 .675 .625 .475 JETS .7 .6 .6 .5 .5 .4 EDU .666 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 MILITARY .62 .586 .62 .448 .379 .344 DOWJONES .586 .517 .517 .482 .31 .31 REIT .585 .571 .591 .428 .448 .394 GOLD .551 .571 .53 .551 .571 .265 GREEN .545 .5 .454 .409 .272 .272 SP500 .54 .512 .493 .428 .332 .318 SP-100 .537 .473 .473 .43 .29 .258 FIDSTKS .535 .502 .481 .432 .297 .313 GUNS .529 .529 .529 .47 .47 .411 INDEXES .51 .37 .333 .306 .258 .204 ============================================================================= RUS-1000 .486 .461 .445 .392 .305 .287 FOOD .481 .425 .407 .425 .388 .388 NASD-100 .479 .395 .343 .302 .187 .239 COMODITY .475 .4 .4 .4 .375 .35 BEVERAGE .47 .411 .411 .294 .411 .352 SOFTWARE .467 .403 .387 .354 .241 .354 AUTO .461 .384 .384 .333 .23 .23 DJI-13 .461 .307 .307 .307 .153 .23 ETFS .421 .263 .21 .228 .228 .21 TRANSP .4 .35 .4 .3 .2 .15 FINANCE .397 .42 .454 .443 .284 .238 CHEM .396 .339 .264 .283 .169 .132 NIFTY .385 .368 .298 .263 .157 .21 HACKERS .38 .238 .333 .285 .142 .285 INFRA .361 .388 .361 .333 .305 .25 SEMI .36 .315 .279 .279 .198 .216 COMPUTER .333 .285 .333 .238 .142 .19 ELECTRON .307 .294 .269 .269 .173 .173 GAMING .304 .304 .217 .26 .217 .304 HOSPITAL .304 .217 .217 .304 .217 .13 BIGBANKS .285 .428 .428 .428 .142 .142 INDMATER .275 .3 .262 .237 .187 .162 BIOTECH .26 .246 .254 .265 .221 .221 REGBANKS .25 .25 .25 .25 .071 .035 RETAIL .245 .283 .226 .188 .132 .132 OILGAS .156 .148 .148 .141 .127 .106 CHINA .068 .051 .051 .051 .051 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0=======================================================================
6/6/2019 The DJI and SP-500 have now reached their 65-dma and need to keep muscling
higher to convince chartists that the head and shoulders patterns are now defunct.
The Jobs Report, to be released just before the Opening Friday, will probably
decide the day's trading. Stay long DIA and some of the bullish MAXCP breakouts
and short a few of the Bearish MINCPs.
The operative Peerless Buy Buy B2 signal has not been reversed. The DJI
is rallying because of expected good news on the interest rate front and
hopes of another big jump in jobs' tomorrow morning. Labor costs and
inflation remain well contained. The Dollar is very strong. American bonds,
utilities and blue chips are seeing money coming into them from all around the
world. And as a bonus today, the Labor Department reported that
Productivity rose 3.4% in first-quarter 2019 while unit labor costs fall 1.6%
annually.
The speed of the rally in the DJI makes me think that we are
seeing the first signs now of a fast-growing DJI Summer rally.
Not only will the DJI get back up to its old highs, but it will
breakout above 26800 and go substantially higher. This is the
3rd-year in the Four Year Presidential Cycle scenario.
For this most bullish scenario to play out we will need:
1) Trump to back off some of his tariff roll-outs,
2) for the FED to talk a lot more about how they need
to stimulate the economy because the rest of the world's
economies are weakening,
3) we will need to get a CPI Report with the year-to-year
numbers well below 3% and.
4) it would be nice to see some new Infrastructure spending.
In these circumstances, politics rules and everything will be done
by the Republican Establishment to make sure the economy is booming
next year. If the Democrats and Republicans agree on Public
Works expenditures, so much the better. I would not think that
the Democrats can win next year if the market is very strong. Russia-
Gate has little traction. Secondly, the southern border "crisis" resulted
as much from the two Clintons' policies toward Central America as the Republicans, Reagan and Bush-1. The Dems can certainly score some
points about how Trump has cruelly separated refugee families, but the
truth is that Dems dare not dig too deep into why there are so many
refugees in the first place.
Of course, the Election is a long way away. A lot can happen. Let's watch
and see if Peerless gives a new Sell S9V at the old highs. If the rally stalls
out before that, at 26000, all bets will be off. Bearish chartists will
try to bring about a reversal. I don't think they will succeed for the DJI,
but they may for the NASDAQ and QQQ.
Clearly all is not quite so rosy. The DJI has now closed 0.7% above the
21-dma and the V-I is still quite negative, at -105. A straight-up advance
of 1.5% would likely bring a Sell S9-V. And while the P-I has turned
positive at +12, that seems weak becaise so much of the strength in the
most defensive stocks. Bearishly, on the NASDAQ, there were
actually more new lows (142) than new highs (81).
Charts 6/6/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/6/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-6/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-6/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/6/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.72 1.99 248.22 116.3% Bullish BLUE .151 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 350.64 1.89 341.61 11.2% Bullish BLUE .103 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 284.8 1.84 275.27 103.6% Bullish BLUE .03 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 177.61 1.4 173.95 24.1% Bullish BLUE -.019 -.013 (weaker) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 343.51 1.45 330.13 148.9% Bullish BLUE .068 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.8 -.39 145.86 63.1% ------- RED .04 -.018 (weaker) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.97 1.05 63.67 412.3% Bullish BLUE .207 .168 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 123.11 4.91 106 546.5% Bullish BLUE -.031 -.114 (much weaker) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 138.86 4.45 123.99 332.2% Bullish BLUE .055 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.17 -1.01 99.98 18.7% Bullish RED .035 -.079 (much weaker) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.88 .41 123.33 168.7% Bullish ---- .18 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.43 .12 13.08 -3.7% Bearish BLUE -.14 -.221 (much weaker) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.23 .23 21.64 121% Bearish ---- .006 .048 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-06 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 237 NEWLOWS 38 MAXCP 103 MINCP 34 TTTNH 48 TTTNL 58 FASTUP 64 FASTDOWN 116 CPCROSSA 76 CPCROSSD 56 BIGVOLUP 8 BIGVODN 14 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 13 LOWACCUM 134 REDSELL 92 AUGSELS7 6 TRAPDOOR 22 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/6/19 Bullish = 13 Bearish = 30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .902 .912 .912 .932 .912 INSURANC .888 .888 .851 .814 .703 .777 SOLAR .823 .764 .705 .647 .647 .647 UTILITY .775 .75 .675 .625 .475 .4 HOMEBLDG .705 .705 .705 .647 .47 .529 JETS .6 .6 .5 .5 .4 .4 MILITARY .586 .62 .448 .379 .344 .344 GOLD .571 .53 .551 .571 .265 .081 REIT .571 .591 .428 .448 .401 .387 GUNS .529 .529 .47 .47 .411 .47 DOWJONES .517 .517 .482 .31 .31 .379 SP500 .511 .492 .427 .331 .315 .354 FIDSTKS .502 .481 .432 .297 .308 .351 ============================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 GREEN .5 .454 .409 .272 .272 .227 ============================================================================================= SP-100 .468 .468 .425 .287 .255 .34 RUS-1000 .461 .445 .391 .306 .287 .317 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .428 .142 .142 .142 FOOD .425 .407 .425 .388 .388 .314 FINANCE .42 .454 .443 .284 .238 .329 BEVERAGE .411 .411 .294 .411 .352 .411 SOFTWARE .403 .387 .354 .241 .354 .387 COMODITY .4 .4 .4 .375 .35 .3 NASD-100 .395 .343 .302 .187 .239 .291 INFRA .388 .361 .333 .305 .222 .222 AUTO .384 .384 .333 .23 .23 .256 NIFTY .368 .298 .263 .157 .21 .263 INDEXES .365 .333 .306 .258 .204 .182 TRANSP .35 .4 .3 .2 .15 .25 CHEM .339 .264 .283 .169 .15 .15 SEMI .315 .279 .279 .198 .207 .207 DJI-13 .307 .307 .307 .153 .23 .23 GAMING .304 .217 .26 .217 .304 .26 INDMATER .3 .262 .237 .187 .162 .15 ELECTRON .292 .267 .267 .171 .165 .165 COMPUTER .285 .333 .238 .142 .19 .19 RETAIL .283 .226 .188 .132 .132 .132 ETFS .263 .21 .228 .228 .21 .175 REGBANKS .25 .25 .25 .071 .035 .071 BIOTECH .243 .254 .265 .221 .221 .238 HACKERS .238 .333 .285 .142 .285 .285 HOSPITAL .217 .217 .304 .217 .13 .173 OILGAS .148 .148 .141 .127 .099 .12 CHINA .051 .051 .051 .051 .068 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
=====================================================================
6/5/2019 The operative Peerless Buy signal is a Buy B2. This typically calls for
a DJI rally back to the upper band. But a Summer Rally boosted by
the FED and more temperance from the President in trade matters vis-a-vis
Mexico are exactly what we would expect in this the third year of the four-year
Presidential cycle. At least, this is what NYSE Professionals seem to see
now as the most likely upcoming scenario.
If the DJI can get past 26000, there should not be
much resistance until it makes a nominal new high above
27000. Above that, we will see a big take-off. This
would be very bullish. Volume will have to rise for this
scenario and Professionals will have to add onto over-night
gains and not sell into them and cause a reversal.
But first the DJI will have to get move up past the red-resistance line shown
above. That may take some positive news, a cessation of the trade wars, an
interest rate reduction or another very positive Jobs report on Friday. After THAT,
I still expect the DJI to reach its 65-dma at 26000.
The DJI's job here is to be the leader of the rally. Once it gets to the
upper band, the Peerless program will have to look at the market's
internals and decide whether to give a Sell signal. That there were no
more advancers than decliners today on the NYSE should not prevent
the DJI from carrying out its mission as leader.
But just because the DJI is able to move up, does not mean the other
indexes will do so well. The SP-500 did today get above the neckline
in its much clearer head and shoulders pattern and the NASDAQ has
just reached its neckline. So, they are lagging and probably more
vulnerable.
As for individual stocks, I found more bearish MINCPs than bullish
MAXCPs. So, if your shorts are still falling, just hold onto them. But
if they turn up, especially their Closing Power, cover them and buy some
our Bullish MAXCPs.
Charts 6/5/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/5/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-5/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-5/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/5/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 255.73 2.08 251.87 89% Bullish BLUE .107 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.75 4.13 349.87 -.7% Bullish BLUE .015 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.96 2.43 279.03 84.5% Bullish BLUE -.003 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 176.21 1.3 176.77 5.2% Bullish RED -.05 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 342.06 1.04 333.51 116.8% Bullish RED .023 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.19 .03 147.93 62.6% ------- RED .004 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.92 2.21 65.52 310.2% Bullish BLUE .149 .19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 118.2 -2.4 110.81 445.9% ------- RED -.058 -.122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 134.41 5.42 130.42 252.5% Bullish BLUE .013 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.18 .17 101.79 70.4% Bullish RED .031 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.47 .32 121.69 186.6% Bullish RED .217 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.31 -.33 13.44 -145% Bearish RED -.16 -.215 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22 -.05 21.7 59.5% Bearish RED -.044 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-05 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 240 NEWLOWS 38 MAXCP 98 MINCP 31 TTTNH 46 TTTNL 56 FASTUP 66 FASTDOWN 92 CPCROSSA 96 CPCROSSD 134 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 145 REDSELL 87 AUGSELS7 6 TRAPDOOR 21 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/5/19 Bullish = 12 Bearish = 32 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .902 .912 .912 .932 .912 .912 INSURANC .888 .851 .814 .703 .777 .851 UTILITY .75 .675 .625 .475 .4 .425 SOLAR .722 .666 .611 .611 .611 .611 HOMEBLDG .705 .705 .647 .47 .529 .588 MILITARY .62 .448 .379 .344 .344 .344 JETS .6 .5 .5 .4 .4 .4 REIT .591 .428 .448 .401 .387 .408 GOLD .53 .551 .571 .265 .081 .081 GUNS .529 .47 .47 .411 .47 .411 DOWJONES .517 .482 .31 .31 .379 .448 ============================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ============================================================================================= SP500 .496 .431 .335 .319 .364 .361 SP-100 .483 .439 .296 .263 .362 .384 FIDSTKS .481 .432 .297 .308 .356 .362 FINANCE .454 .443 .284 .238 .318 .34 GREEN .454 .409 .272 .272 .227 .272 RUS-1000 .445 .391 .305 .288 .324 .322 BIGBANKS .428 .428 .142 .142 .142 .285 BEVERAGE .411 .294 .411 .352 .411 .411 FOOD .407 .425 .388 .388 .314 .314 COMODITY .4 .4 .375 .35 .3 .275 TRANSP .4 .3 .2 .15 .25 .25 SOFTWARE .387 .354 .241 .354 .387 .387 AUTO .384 .333 .23 .23 .256 .256 INFRA .361 .333 .305 .222 .222 .277 NASD-100 .343 .302 .187 .239 .312 .302 INDEXES .338 .306 .258 .204 .182 .182 COMPUTER .333 .238 .142 .19 .19 .19 HACKERS .333 .285 .142 .285 .285 .285 DJI-13 .307 .307 .153 .23 .23 .23 NIFTY .298 .263 .157 .21 .28 .263 SEMI .279 .279 .198 .207 .207 .198 ELECTRON .267 .267 .171 .165 .165 .159 CHEM .264 .283 .169 .15 .169 .132 INDMATER .262 .237 .187 .162 .15 .162 BIOTECH .252 .265 .221 .221 .238 .243 REGBANKS .25 .25 .071 .035 .071 .107 RETAIL .226 .188 .132 .132 .169 .132 GAMING .217 .26 .217 .304 .26 .26 HOSPITAL .217 .304 .217 .13 .173 .217 ETFS .21 .228 .228 .21 .175 .157 OILGAS .148 .141 .127 .099 .12 .141 CHINA .051 .051 .051 .068 .068 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
6/4/2019 One thing I've learned over the years is not to argue with Peerless for
very long. Another is to not fight the inclinations of the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve and Republican Senators have come to the rescue
of the stock market, or so it would seem, judging by today's broad 5% jump in the
DJI. Powell indicated a reduction in rates was a possibility and, just as
important, a group of US Republican Senators went to the White House
and loudly complained about the new Mexican tariffs. They shouted that
such tariffs would be very disruptive and costly to American businesses, lose
lots of votes and do nothing to stop illegal immingration. They warned the
White House staffers that the big man's persistance here would inevitably
lead to embarrassing political failures in his dealing with Congress.
( ( https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/trumps-tariffs-are-equivalent-to-one-of-the-largest-tax-increases-in-decades.html )
The market's response to these two developments was unequivocally bullish.
While we still have to see the Buy B2 in the context of the bigger head/shoulder
patterns, we can again be bullish on the DJI. The bullish factor of this being the
year before a Presdiential Election Year now may play put more clearly.
I would say that the Buy B2 should now bring a recovery to the upper
2%-3% band on the DJI, most likely 26000, as a starter, but even a new
high if rates are, in fact, lowered. This could be the beginning of a Summer rally.
So, Buy DIA, that is the leader. It is alone among the major market ETFs now
above its H/S neckline. NYSE Breadth was excellent. MINCPs shrank to less
than 10. Cover half of the MINCPs you shorted. Down Volume on the
NYSE was less than 100 million, making it the lowest such number since
January 4th. The ratio of up volume to down-volume was not high enough to
give it a Peerless B14, but the news and action today were clearly unusual and
bullish enough to force me to toss out last night's notion of the DJI's H/S neckline
stopping the rally.
Today the Fed Secretary Powell told us that he is ready to lower rates if
Trump's tariff wars cause a slow-down. That would seem inevitable. As you
probably know, even before the new Mexican tariffs, Trump's new tariffs,
despite his assurances to the contrary, equalled new taxes on Americans
amounting $72 billion. This and the world-wide economic slow-down, have
been behind the rapidly developing head and shoulders patterns, which started
suddenly the day after Trump announced that the trade talks with China had failed.
I think that we may usefully compare Trump's new economic policies (tariffs)
with Nixon's New Economic Policies in 1971/ Both produced head/shoulders
patterns. Both were unexpected. Significantly, the stock market in 1971
ultimately took its direction from what the Federal Reserve was doing and
its changes in the Discount Rate. A rate hike now would be very bullish. I have
mentioned how mid-year rate cuts were very bullish in 1927 and June 1929.
I could also mention the rate cut of May 1985 and there are probably others
that set off big advances.
Back in 1971, President Nixon stopped transferring gold to foreign banks
when they requested it for US Dollars. Wall Street feared this would drop
the value of the Dollar...At the same time, he also put America through a 6-month
period of price and wage controls. At the time, this seemed scarily like war or
socialism. See the chart of the DJI's Head and Shoulders patterns of 1971 below.
Note how these kept forming until there finally was a 18% DJI decline when Nixon persisted and before the FED started lowering the Discount Rate.
Nixon's N.E.P. price and wage controls lasted only six months. Trump's tariffs will
last much longer. So, it would seem to be important that the tariff wars not seem
unending and also that the FED actually lower interest rates.
Federal Reserve
Discount Rate Statistics.
1970-1973
1970-12-01 5.52
1971-01-01 5.23 Falling and Bullish
1971-02-01 4.91 Falling and Bullish
1971-03-01, 4.75 Falling and Bullish
1971-04-01, 4.75 Flat - watch out.
1971-05-01, 4.75 Flat - watch out
1971-06-01, 4.75 Flat - watch out
1971-07-01, 4.88 Rising and Bearish
1971-08-01, 5.0 Bearish
1971-09-01, 5.0 Flat - watch out
1971-10-01, 5.0 Flat - watch out
1971-11-01, 4.9 Falling and Bullish... Pres. Elect. coming up.
1971-12-01, 4.63 Falling and Bullish... Pres. Elect. coming up.
1972-01-01, 4.5 Falling and Bullish... Pres. Elect. coming up
....
1972-12-01, 4.5 Election over
1973-01-01, 4.77 Election over and rates can go back up.
1973-02-01, 5.05 Election over and rates can go back up.
Charts 6/4/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/4/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-4/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-4/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/4/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 253.65 5.15 251.27 3.6% Bullish BLUE .107 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 344.62 5.73 348.8 -147.9% Bullish BLUE .051 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 280.53 5.96 278.27 6.8% Bullish BLUE .004 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 174.91 4.79 176.03 -73.8% Bullish BLUE -.042 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.02 8.45 334.25 73.5% Bullish BLUE .022 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.16 3.79 148.34 19.3% Bullish BLUE .025 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.71 4.06 65.87 88.4% Bullish BLUE .135 .151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 120.6 13.58 108.34 635.8% Bullish BLUE -.01 -.13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 128.99 11.68 128.06 -53.2% Bullish BLUE .031 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.01 1.95 101.75 5.4% Bullish BLUE .06 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.15 .04 120.87 176.5% Bullish BLUE .256 .015 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.64 .24 13.7 -29.7% Bearish BLUE -.122 -.19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.05 -.03 21.74 152% Bearish ---- -.002 .06 ^^^^^ Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190604 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 129 NEWLOWS 3 MAXCP 103 MINCP 6 TTTNH 76 TTTNL 17 FASTUP 77 FASTDOWN 99 CPCROSSA 367 CPCROSSD 32 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 10 LOWACCUM 148 REDSELL 84 AUGSELS7 9 TRAPDOOR 22 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/4/19 Bullish = 6 Bearish =37 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .912 .932 .912 .912 .912 INSURANC .851 .814 .703 .777 .851 .777 HOMEBLDG .705 .647 .47 .529 .588 .647 SOLAR .705 .647 .647 .647 .647 .588 UTILITY .675 .625 .475 .4 .425 .525 GOLD .551 .571 .265 .081 .081 .081 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 JETS .5 .5 .4 .4 .4 .5 ============================================================================================ DOWJONES .482 .31 .31 .379 .448 .482 GUNS .47 .47 .411 .47 .411 .529 MILITARY .448 .379 .344 .344 .344 .379 FINANCE .443 .284 .238 .318 .34 .363 FIDSTKS .432 .297 .308 .356 .362 .372 BIGBANKS .428 .142 .142 .142 .285 .285 REIT .428 .448 .401 .387 .401 .551 SP500 .427 .331 .315 .36 .358 .397 FOOD .425 .388 .388 .314 .314 .314 SP-100 .425 .287 .255 .351 .372 .372 GREEN .409 .272 .272 .227 .272 .318 COMODITY .4 .375 .35 .3 .275 .275 RUS-1000 .391 .305 .287 .325 .325 .362 SOFTWARE .354 .241 .354 .387 .387 .435 AUTO .333 .23 .23 .256 .256 .256 INFRA .333 .305 .222 .222 .277 .305 DJI-13 .307 .153 .23 .23 .23 .23 INDEXES .306 .258 .204 .182 .182 .22 HOSPITAL .304 .217 .13 .173 .217 .26 NASD-100 .302 .187 .239 .312 .302 .333 TRANSP .3 .2 .15 .25 .25 .3 BEVERAGE .294 .411 .352 .411 .47 .47 HACKERS .285 .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 SEMI .279 .198 .207 .207 .198 .171 CHEM .269 .153 .134 .153 .134 .134 ELECTRON .267 .171 .165 .165 .159 .165 BIOTECH .263 .221 .221 .238 .243 .276 NIFTY .263 .157 .21 .28 .263 .28 GAMING .26 .217 .304 .26 .26 .26 REGBANKS .25 .071 .035 .071 .107 .142 COMPUTER .238 .142 .19 .19 .19 .238 INDMATER .237 .187 .162 .15 .162 .187 ETFS .228 .228 .21 .175 .157 .157 RETAIL .188 .132 .132 .169 .132 .169 OILGAS .141 .127 .099 .12 .148 .184 CHINA .051 .051 .068 .068 .068 .086 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
6/3/2019 Today brought a new Peerless Buy B2, based on the DJI closing more
than 2% below the 21-dma and there not having been a previous Sell S9
or S12. This, the exceptionally good breadth today and very low interest
rates may lift the DJI back to its head/shoulders neckline at 25280. But head/
shoulders patterns are dangerous. And typically, if there is a rally before the
DJI reaches its minimum downside objective, then the first DJI recovery to
neckline is apt to be turned back and a restest of the lows, at a minimum
is required. A rally in the DJI does not necessarily mean a jump in the NASDAQ,
QQQ or even the SP-500 and SPY. Respect the bearishness of Head and
Shoulders patterns. Hold your short MINCPs and plan to sell short DIA and
SPY on a rally above 25200.
Current DJIA
See in the DJI charts below how the first rally back to the neckline in a
completed H/S pattern fails and there is another deeper declne or a re-test
of the lower band then a Buy Signal.
1952
1960 2014
Late May-June Buy B2s usually are profitable. But completed
head/shoulders pattern are very dangerous and if the software was able to
spot these patterns, I would have included provision for the Buy B2s right
after they were completed to be nullified.
Buy B2s in Late May and June: 1929-2019
Date Signal DJI Close Gain Biggest Paper Loss
===================================================================
19290527 B2 293.4 .069 0
19350531 B2 110.64 .198 0
19390628 B2 132.8 .16 -.020 6/29
19510628 B2 244.0 .127 -.006 6/29
19750529 B2 815. .061 0
19760607 B2 958.09 .052 0
19780623 B2 823.02 .103 -.013 6/26
19880519 B2 1958.72 .115 -.003 5/20
19910624 B2 2913.01 .033 -.005 8/19
19940624 B2 3636.94 .068 -.003
19980615 B2 8627.93 .049 0
19990611 B2 10490.51 .046 0
20100520 B2 10068.01 .034 -.025 6/7
20110603 B2 12151.26 .022 -.021 6/15
---------------------------------------------------------
20190603 B2 24819.78 open....
Since 1990, none of the Buy B2s brought a gain of more
than 6.9%. A 2.5% paper loss is the biggest that
has ever occurred on one of these signals. A loss of
any more than this would certainly show they must not
be taken soon after head/shoulders patterns for all the
indexes and the DJI.
Charts 6/3/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
6/3/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Jun-3/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Jun-3/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 6/3/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.5 .28 253.47 -151.1% Bullish BLUE .085 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 338.89 -2.72 354.88 -228.7% Bullish BLUE .044 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 274.57 -.7 280.15 -147.1% Bullish RED -.01 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 170.12 -3.83 177.49 -227.8% Bullish RED -.062 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 332.57 2.44 336.12 -110.2% Bullish BLUE .023 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.37 .51 149.59 -148.8% Bullish BLUE .021 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63.65 -.02 66.56 -342.6% Bullish ---- .14 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 107.02 1.02 106.89 -131.9% ------- RED -.067 -.255 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 117.31 -6.68 130.33 -563.5% Bullish RED .001 -.152 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 101.06 1.08 102.9 -153.7% Bullish BLUE .059 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.11 1.78 120.83 156.7% Bullish BLUE .209 .054 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.4 .32 13.72 -151.3% Bearish BLUE-.118 -.202 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.08 .44 21.39 106.4% Bullish BLUE-.005 .071 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-06-03 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 139 NEWLOWS 49 MAXCP 74 MINCP 15 TTTNH 54 TTTNL 27 FASTUP 63 FASTDOWN 163 CPCROSSA 223 CPCROSSD 34 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 10 LOWACCUM 150 REDSELL 80 AUGSELS7 9 TRAPDOOR 25 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 6/3/19 Bullish = 6 Bearish = 37 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .932 .912 .912 .912 .902 INSURANC .814 .703 .777 .851 .777 .888 HOMEBLDG .647 .47 .529 .588 .647 .647 UTILITY .625 .475 .4 .425 .525 .625 SOLAR .611 .611 .611 .611 .555 .5 GOLD .571 .265 .081 .081 .081 .081 big jump ========================================================================================= EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 JETS .5 .4 .4 .4 .5 .6 ========================================================================================= GUNS .47 .411 .47 .411 .529 .529 REIT .448 .401 .387 .401 .557 .653 BEVERAGE .411 .352 .411 .47 .47 .529 FOOD .388 .388 .314 .314 .314 .222 MILITARY .379 .344 .344 .344 .379 .413 COMODITY .375 .35 .3 .275 .275 .2 SP500 .335 .319 .364 .361 .4 .445 DOWJONES .31 .31 .379 .448 .482 .551 INFRA .305 .222 .222 .277 .305 .388 RUS-1000 .305 .287 .324 .326 .363 .41 FIDSTKS .297 .308 .356 .362 .372 .443 SP-100 .296 .263 .362 .384 .384 .483 FINANCE .284 .238 .318 .34 .363 .409 GREEN .272 .272 .227 .272 .318 .318 INDEXES .258 .204 .182 .182 .225 .263 SOFTWARE .241 .354 .387 .387 .435 .435 AUTO .23 .23 .256 .256 .256 .256 ETFS .228 .21 .175 .157 .157 .14 BIOTECH .218 .221 .237 .243 .27 .278 GAMING .217 .304 .26 .26 .26 .217 HOSPITAL .217 .13 .173 .217 .26 .217 TRANSP .2 .15 .25 .25 .3 .35 SEMI .198 .207 .207 .198 .171 .189 INDMATER .187 .162 .15 .162 .187 .187 NASD-100 .187 .239 .312 .302 .322 .354 ELECTRON .173 .166 .166 .16 .166 .205 CHEM .169 .15 .169 .15 .169 .169 NIFTY .157 .21 .28 .263 .28 .315 DJI-13 .153 .23 .23 .23 .23 .307 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 COMPUTER .142 .19 .19 .19 .238 .238 HACKERS .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 RETAIL .132 .132 .169 .132 .169 .188 OILGAS .127 .099 .12 .148 .184 .184 REGBANKS .071 .035 .071 .107 .142 .214 CHINA .051 .068 .068 .068 .086 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
=====================================================================
5/31/2019 Treat the operative Peerless signal to be a judged Sell S10. The Peerless
programs will have be revised this coming week to show that a close below
well-tested support, like we have recently seen at 25000, will automatically
produce a Selll S10. See some examples of H/S patterns and Sell S10s
here. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/HS-SellS10/index.html
Any recovery now back to 25200 will likely be a good place to sell short
ETFs like DIA and SPY.
The key indexes, including the DJIA, NYSE, NASDAQ, SP-500 and OEX
have all completed bearish head and shoulders patterns. This is not sinister
manipulation by anti-Trump bears. It is real and much more significant. It is
now world-wide.
It has always been hard for our software to recognize every DJI head and
shoulders pattern. But that does not make them less trustworthy. Nor can
can it be argued that H/S patterns and Sell S10s can not successfully reverse
Peerless Buy signals.
What I find remarkable is that we see these same H/S patterns at important tops in
the DJIA from Wall Street's very beginning despite the great changes in the world
and in America. See below. Most reflect, I believe, a seed-change in the thinking
among the richest one percent who own most stocks and their money managers's
view of the market.
The present case suggests that Wall Street Professionals still think that the current
market's situation can still be saved. But the heavy down-day volume I showed last
week warns that this will be very difficult. Somehow, they will need change the
minds of all the Big Sellers, including those overseas. Trump's thinking on following
his impulses will not wasily be changed. Those impulses now are seen as "rogue"
by Bloomberg and others. Can he back-track and go for a big infrastrucure deal
with the Dems? Can he backoff on his very disruptive Tariffs on Mexico? Maybe,
but more likely not, I would judge.
Head and Shoulders DJI Patterns: 1900-1914
1893 1894 1895 1896
1901 1902 1903 1904
1909 1910 1911 1912
1913 1914 1915 1916
What if the NYSE Market Professionals Start To
Aggressively Buy Leveraged Short ETFs, all at once?
It will get harder as each day passes now for the market Professionals
who ordinarily swoop in and out of leveraged ETFs with their programmed
trading to turn this market back up. The broken necklines are now resistance.
75% of all stocks and ETFs are now below their 65-dma. And looking at each
of the 200 or so Morningside sector funds shows a very wide variety now show
their own bearish H/S patterns. These should be shorted. Below is a partial list:
Chemicals, Synthetics, Agricultural Chemicals, Specialty Chemicals,
Energy, Major Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Consumer Durables, Sporting Goods,
Auto Manufacturing, Beverages, Regional Banks, Saving & Loans, Brokerages,
Telecommunications, Internet, Wireless, CATV, Computer Hardware,
Processing, Property Management, Bankers, Farm Construction, Die Makers,
Pollution Control Equipment, General Construction and Contracting, Trucking,
and Small Tools...
Charts 5/31/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/31/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-31/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-31/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/31/19All but GLD and RSX show 5-dma are falling...ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.22 -3.65 256.12 -129% Bullish RED .072 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 341.61 -8.26 354.9 -127.1% Bullish RED .001 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 275.27 -3.76 282.78 -122.5% Bullish RED -.001 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 173.95 -2.82 178.16 -121.2% Bullish RED -.015 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 330.13 -3.38 339.95 -117.9% Bullish ---- .058 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 145.86 -2.07 150.79 -118.3% Bullish RED .041 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63.67 -1.85 68.17 -243.2% Bullish BLUE .142 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 20.35 -.85 23.1 -599.4% Bearish RED -.185 -.245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 106 -4.81 109.88 -310.3% Bullish RED -.032 -.197 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 123.99 -6.43 131.84 -296.2% Bullish RED .017 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 99.98 -1.81 104.2 -184.2% Bullish RED .085 -.081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.33 1.64 121.3 89.1% Bullish BLUE .167 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.08 -.36 13.81 -338.5% Bearish RED -.108 -.228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.64 -.06 21.62 55.6% ------- ---- .025 .046 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-31 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 114 NEWLOWS 161 MAXCP 54 MINCP 46 TTTNH 43 TTTNL 66 FASTUP 46 FASTDOWN 140 CPCROSSA 124 CPCROSSD 35 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 13 ACCUMVER 6 HIGHIP21 3 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 153 REDSELL 82 AUGSELS7 11 TRAPDOOR 26 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/31/19 Bullish = 3 Bearish = 41 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .932 .912 .912 .912 .902 .893 INSURANC .703 .777 .851 .777 .888 .851 SOLAR .611 .611 .611 .555 .5 .555 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UTILITY .475 .4 .425 .525 .625 .625 HOMEBLDG .47 .529 .588 .647 .647 .647 GUNS .411 .47 .411 .529 .529 .529 JETS .4 .4 .4 .5 .6 .5 REIT .395 .382 .395 .55 .637 .61FOOD .388 .314 .314 .314 .222 .185 SOFTWARE .354 .387 .387 .435 .435 .387 BEVERAGE .352 .411 .47 .47 .529 .588 COMODITY .35 .3 .275 .275 .2 .2 MILITARY .344 .344 .344 .379 .413 .413DOWJONES .333 .4 .466 .5 .566 .566 SP500 .318 .363 .361 .4 .444 .43 FIDSTKS .309 .358 .364 .375 .451 .434 GAMING .304 .26 .26 .26 .217 .217 RUS-1000 .287 .324 .325 .365 .412 .386HACKERS .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .333 GREEN .272 .227 .272 .318 .318 .318 GOLD .265 .081 .081 .081 .081 .081 SP-100 .26 .358 .38 .38 .478 .478 NASD-100 .239 .312 .302 .322 .364 .364FINANCE .238 .318 .34 .363 .409 .34 AUTO .23 .256 .256 .256 .256 .256 DJI-13 .23 .23 .23 .23 .307 .307 INFRA .222 .222 .277 .305 .388 .277 BIOTECH .218 .237 .243 .27 .281 .259ETFS .21 .175 .157 .157 .14 .14 NIFTY .21 .28 .263 .28 .315 .333 SEMI .207 .207 .198 .171 .189 .189 INDEXES .204 .182 .182 .225 .263 .252 COMPUTER .19 .19 .19 .238 .238 .19ELECTRON .166 .166 .16 .166 .205 .179 INDMATER .151 .139 .151 .177 .177 .151 TRANSP .15 .25 .25 .3 .35 .3 BIGBANKS .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 CHEM .134 .153 .134 .153 .173 .153RETAIL .132 .169 .132 .169 .188 .207 HOSPITAL .13 .173 .217 .26 .217 .217 OILGAS .09 .111 .139 .174 .174 .16 CHINA .068 .068 .068 .086 .068 .068 REGBANKS .035 .071 .107 .142 .214 .107COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
5/30/2019 Treat a DJI close below 25000 as a Judged S10. Sell DIA and SPY.
Short more of our Bearish MINCPs. Head and Shoulders patterns are
very dangerous and this is a very old Bull Market.
The other general market indexes have already broken their necklines. You can
see Tiger automatic Sell S5s on most of them in this decline. Most bearish is
the way down-day volume has regularly been much higher on the down-days
than the up-days. Big money is rushing to the exits. More tariffs must be
expected without any FED intervention.
Now we see a break in the NYSE A/D Line uptrend. Turning bearish
is how we would have handled cases where the ADL is stronger than the
DJI, like in 2019. The closest parallel I can find is from 2002, where
despite low interest rates and a bullish DJI V-formation, the break in the
A/D Line on 5/21/2002 led to the DJI falling from 10106 to 7702 on 7/23.
The risk here, therefore, is that the DJI will now have fall back to 23000
or possibly even 21500.
The overall market turned very weak several weeks ago. On 5/13, a majority
of all stocks for the first time since January were below their 65-dma. and
the P-Indicator was negative. But even before that, on 5/6, the Opening Power
for DIA began falling very sharply as a result of Trump's 20% tariffs on Chinese
goods. I said then that we were going to start seeing a war between the weak
Openings and the still rising Closing Power. In effect, the overseas markets were
weakening dramatically and it would be up to NYSE Professionals to hold the
market up. But the Professionals, I warned, only had enough money to support
the key ETFs. The entire market was too much for them. The Professionals
have been helpful. But they are not fools. They know their limits and they
know when to switch to a new more powerful trend. That I think is now DOWN
based on the recently completed head and shoulders patterns.
A very high perentage of all stock is owned by the very wealthy. Overwhelmingly,
they have supported Trump's economic policies, apart from his tariffs. But there
is a point where they may abandon him and even turn on him, if his trade policies
appear too reckless. Perhaps, the best way that they now can communicate with him
their displeasure is to drive the stock market down, at least for a month or two
more, as in 2002. I say this because I see that an important wing of Wall Street,
those that depend on the Bloomberg News, not solely the Wall Street Journal,
seem to be rebelling. Today, Bloomberg's lead article declares Trump's new tariffs
on Mexico, America's third larget trading partner, a sign that he has gone "rogue".
Many US corporations, not Mexico, will be hurt by his higher tariffs. Nor can
anyone tell how high these new tariffs will go. It will be entirely up to Trump to decide
when Mexico is doing enough to stop the mass migrations north from brutalized and
war-torn Central America.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/trump-to-impose-5-tariff-on-mexico-over-illegal-immigration?srnd=premium
Charts 5/30/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/30/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-30/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-30/BEARISH.htm
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/30/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 251.87 .6 254.76 -112.5% Bullish BLUE .098 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 349.87 1.07 350.55 -41.3% Bullish RED .007 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 279.03 .76 282.14 -117.1% Bullish ---- .006 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 176.77 .74 178.25 -119.3% Bullish BLUE -.005 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 333.51 -.74 338.06 -148.6% Bullish RED .005 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 147.93 -.41 149.39 -153.2% Bullish RED .019 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.52 -.35 66.91 -296.7% Bullish RED .104 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 21.2 .12 23.01 -615.4% ------- RED -.253 -.241 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 110.81 2.47 112.81 -359.7% ------- BLUE -.021 -.194 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 130.42 2.36 131.72 -323.8% Bullish BLUE .016 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 101.79 .04 103.77 -139.7% Bullish RED .094 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.69 .82 121.17 60% ------- BLUE -.003 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.44 -.26 14.01 -464.4% Bearish RED -.151 -.203 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.7 -.04 21.4 0% ------- ---- -.026 .049 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190530 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 116 NEWLOWS 106 MAXCP 26 MINCP 40 TTTNH 22 TTTNL 73 FASTUP 28 FASTDOWN 167 CPCROSSA 71 CPCROSSD 61 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 2 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 137 REDSELL 80 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 26 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/30/19 Bullish = 4 Bearish = 41 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .912 .912 .902 .893 .902 INSURANC .777 .851 .777 .888 .851 .925 SOLAR .647 .647 .588 .529 .588 .647 HOMEBLDG .529 .588 .647 .647 .647 .647 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 GUNS .47 .411 .529 .529 .529 .529 BEVERAGE .411 .47 .47 .529 .588 .588 JETS .4 .4 .5 .6 .5 .6 UTILITY .4 .425 .525 .625 .625 .6 REIT .387 .401 .557 .646 .612 .632 SOFTWARE .387 .387 .435 .435 .387 .516 DOWJONES .366 .433 .466 .533 .533 .566 SP500 .36 .358 .397 .441 .429 .488 FIDSTKS .356 .362 .372 .448 .432 .481 SP-100 .351 .372 .372 .468 .468 .478 MILITARY .344 .344 .379 .413 .413 .482 RUS-1000 .324 .325 .363 .414 .387 .452 FINANCE .318 .34 .363 .409 .34 .443 FOOD .314 .314 .314 .222 .185 .222 NASD-100 .312 .302 .322 .364 .364 .395 COMODITY .3 .275 .275 .2 .2 .15 HACKERS .285 .285 .285 .285 .333 .333 NIFTY .28 .263 .28 .315 .333 .368 GAMING .26 .26 .26 .217 .217 .26 AUTO .256 .256 .256 .256 .256 .282 TRANSP .25 .25 .3 .35 .3 .5 BIOTECH .234 .243 .27 .281 .262 .295 DJI-13 .23 .23 .23 .307 .307 .384 GREEN .227 .272 .318 .318 .318 .454 INFRA .222 .277 .305 .388 .277 .416 SEMI .207 .198 .171 .189 .189 .252 COMPUTER .19 .19 .238 .238 .19 .285 INDEXES .177 .182 .225 .263 .252 .295 ETFS .175 .157 .157 .14 .14 .21 HOSPITAL .173 .217 .26 .217 .217 .304 RETAIL .169 .132 .169 .188 .207 .226 ELECTRON .166 .16 .166 .205 .185 .237 BIGBANKS .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 INDMATER .139 .151 .177 .177 .151 .177 CHEM .137 .117 .137 .156 .156 .176 OILGAS .12 .148 .184 .184 .17 .248 GOLD .081 .081 .081 .081 .081 .061 REGBANKS .071 .107 .142 .214 .107 .285 CHINA .068 .068 .086 .068 .068 .068 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
5/29/2019 Today the DJI could not close below the round number support at 25000 just
below the DJI's neckline at 25200. So, Peerless remains on its Buy signals
and that gives us hope for a Summer Rally starting now, perhaps like the one
that occurred in June1929, for example, when internals were much weaker than
now and there was also a DJI head/shoulders and the DJI had fallen to the
lower band late in May. In this case, the FED intervened to prevent a big sell-off.
They succeeded in that the DJI rose 20% over the next 13 weeks, but then
they failed dramatically because the speculative bubble could no longer be
inflated.
The influential D.J. Transportation Index needs to rally now.
But will it just be forming a big new Head/Shoulders top
as a result of a June rally?
But how much of a rally can we get if the FED sits on its hands
and there is no end to the trade war with China and now Europe? Yes, how
much of a rally can a DJI bounce here bring? We will need to see a broad
advance because so many of the other key indexes and ETFs have now
broken their necklines. Stay long DIA and SPY, but don't cover the
Bearish MINCPs that you've shorted to be hedged while we wait to
see how all these bearish head/shoulders are resolved.
Close 5/29 Broken Neckline and Resistance now
----------- -----------------------------------
AAPL 277.38 182.
COMPQX 7547.31 7670. (NASDAQ)
DIA 251.37 252.50
DJIA-30 25126 25220
NYSE 12506 12866
OEX 1231.97 1240.86
Classic technical analysis (Edwards and Maggee, for example) warns that
that we should not be fooled by a low volume rally recovery of about
1/3 the recent price movement down. So, we need to watch the volume
on the recovery of these ETFs and INDEXes as well as the DJI's. One of
the warning signs recently, in fact, has been how down-day volumes
have been consistently greater than the volume on up-days.
We are told that the 10-years rates dropping below the Over-Night
rates shows a world-wide Recession is nearing. Perhaps, but American
stocks enjoy lots of advantages over foreign stocks and our blue-chips |
and bonds act as a haven for foreign wealth provided the Dollar remains
strong. That remains true now.
But smaller US stocks are more vulnerable in any slow-down and
in any period where Big Money favors blue chips and bonds to
speculative investments. Avoid buying smaller stocks or IWM
while our Index of All Stocks shows a declining percentage of
stocks above the 65-dma and the ratio of Bearish Groups in
Table 3 is 3x the number of Bullish Groups.
Charts 5/29/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/29/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-29/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-29/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/29/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 251.27 -2.2 257.6 -146.4% Bullish RED .103 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.8 -6.08 352.78 -140.4% Bullish RED .004 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 278.27 -1.88 285.63 -145.4% Bullish RED .036 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 176.03 -1.46 181.02 -161.7% Bullish RED .006 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 334.25 -1.87 343.57 -179.6% Bullish RED .078 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.34 -1.25 152.53 -181.2% Bullish RED .043 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.87 -.69 69.52 -291.1% Bullish BLUE .143 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 21.08 -1.48 24 -920.8% Bearish RED -.091 -.254 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 108.34 1.45 118.82 -800.2% Bullish BLUE-.007 -.179 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 128.06 -2.27 138.98 -486.6% Bullish BLUE .021 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 101.75 -1.15 104.68 -125% Bullish RED .086 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.87 .04 120.24 21.1% Bearish RED -.053 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.7 -.02 14.74 -548.6% Bearish BLUE-.176 -.189 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.74 .35 21.7 41.8% ------- BLUE .016 .05 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190529 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 70 NEWLOWS 98 MAXCP 22 MINCP 25 TTTNH 20 TTTNL 59 FASTUP 32 FASTDOWN 205 CPCROSSA 104 CPCROSSD 68 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 154 REDSELL 78 AUGSELS7 7 TRAPDOOR 25Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/29/19 Bullish= 4 Bearish = 40 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .912 .902 .893 .902 .912 INSURANC .851 .777 .888 .851 .925 .925 SOLAR .647 .588 .529 .588 .647 .647 HOMEBLDG .588 .647 .647 .647 .647 .764 ========================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ========================================================================================== BEVERAGE .47 .47 .529 .588 .588 .588 DOWJONES .433 .466 .533 .533 .566 .533 UTILITY .425 .525 .625 .625 .6 .6 GUNS .411 .529 .529 .529 .529 .47 REIT .401 .557 .646 .612 .632 .632 JETS .4 .5 .6 .5 .6 .6 SOFTWARE .387 .435 .435 .387 .516 .532 SP-100 .372 .372 .468 .468 .478 .51 FIDSTKS .362 .372 .448 .432 .481 .529 SP500 .358 .397 .441 .429 .486 .513 MILITARY .344 .379 .413 .413 .482 .551 FINANCE .34 .363 .409 .34 .443 .534 RUS-1000 .325 .363 .412 .388 .452 .474 FOOD .314 .314 .222 .185 .222 .296 NASD-100 .302 .322 .364 .364 .395 .427 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .714 HACKERS .285 .285 .285 .333 .333 .333 INFRA .277 .305 .388 .277 .416 .444 COMODITY .275 .275 .2 .2 .15 .25 GREEN .272 .318 .318 .318 .454 .454 NIFTY .263 .28 .315 .333 .368 .438 GAMING .26 .26 .217 .217 .26 .304 AUTO .256 .256 .256 .256 .282 .333 TRANSP .25 .3 .35 .3 .5 .5 BIOTECH .241 .271 .282 .263 .295 .328 DJI-13 .23 .23 .307 .307 .384 .384 HOSPITAL .217 .26 .217 .217 .304 .304 SEMI .198 .171 .189 .189 .252 .261 COMPUTER .19 .238 .238 .19 .285 .38 INDEXES .182 .225 .263 .252 .295 .354 ELECTRON .159 .165 .203 .184 .235 .254 ETFS .157 .157 .14 .14 .21 .228 INDMATER .151 .177 .177 .151 .177 .177 OILGAS .148 .184 .184 .17 .248 .304 CHEM .134 .153 .173 .173 .192 .173 RETAIL .132 .169 .188 .207 .226 .264 REGBANKS .107 .142 .214 .107 .285 .464 GOLD .081 .081 .081 .081 .061 .061 CHINA .068 .086 .068 .068 .068 .086 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
====================================================================
5/28/2019 The key indexes have reached "high inflection" points. These are the neckline in
their head and shoulders patterns. We watch the DJI most closely, but you
can see the head/shoulder patterns when looking at the SP-500, OEX,
NASDAQ, NYSE and QQQ. I take the DJI's neckline to be at 25200
with support existing still down to 25000. A close below 25000 will be
treated as a Sell S10, but a DJI close back above its neckline by say
100 points, above 25300, will suggest a rally. In the DJI's case another
a rally to 26000 would be likely first. If 26000 is surpassed, then the whole
pattern will look like it has been aborted.
Head/Shoulders Patterns
when completed are reliably bearish
and should be treated as giving Sell S10 or S5 signals.
We don't know what the bearish reasons are for these patterns now.
It is enough for us to see how hastily the sellers who do know are unloading their shares..
By themselves, about 20% of the head/shoulders patterns can still be
saved after a decline to their neckline, but 75%, at least, bring declines
that fall to their classic minimum target (measured by the height of the pattern
subtracted from the neckline). Perhaps, another 5% just move only small a
amounts away from the neckline for a month.
How can we tell if the neckline will be violated? Some patterns that bring
bring break-downs are obvious in that there have been multiple Peerless
Sells and non-confirmations. Others, like ours are not so clear-cut. For example,
the ETFs' for these indexes still show rising Closing Powers. See Table 1.
And Peerless has given no Sell here, though the turning negative of the P-Indicator
on our DJIA chart after being positive for 80+ days may be compared to the 1971
top when a classic DJI head/shoulders pattern unfolded which soon followed the
P-Indicator going negative after 100 straight positive days.
There are many scary technical signs in our situation. First, the presence of
head/shoulders patterns in all the other indexes shows widespread vulnerability.
Secondly, the very heavy down-day volume recently compared to the up-days
indicates aggressive dumping by big institutions. They are frightened! Thirdly,
the fact that 67% of all stocks and ETFs are now below their 65-dma undercuts
a bullish interpretation of the NYSE A/D Line's strength until recently. Fourthly,
when the A/D Line has been stronger than the DJI, like now, it has always
(1976, 1977, 2001 and 2002) been a good idea to Sell finally when the NYSE
A/D Line was penetrated. Following that approach now, it looks as though we
should be Sellers. Interest rates, set where they are now, have done about all
they can in lifting Utilities and dividend-paying stocks. It's not clear where the new
leadership will come from.
My conclusion: if the DJI closes below 25000, Sell all long positions in DIA
and SPY, despite the Peerless buy signals that still show on our current chart, and
treat the operative Peerless signal to be a Sell S10. Add to your short positions
from among our Bearish MINCPs.
Charts 5/28/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/28/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-28/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-28/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/28/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 253.47 -2.65 258.77 -62.3% Bullish RED .087 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.88 -.02 358.75 29.5% Bullish RED -.012 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 280.15 -2.63 286.51 -66.9% Bullish RED .022 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 177.49 -.67 181.83 -68.4% Bullish RED .016 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 336.12 -3.83 346.49 -85.8% Bullish RED .047 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.59 -1.2 153.82 -72.2% Bullish RED .029 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.56 -1.61 69.84 -121.1% Bullish RED .101 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 106.89 -2.99 126.75 -525.9% ------- RED -.038 -.205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 130.33 -1.51 141.18 -219.1% Bullish RED .003 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.9 -1.3 104.35 27.9% Bullish RED .092 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.83 -.47 120.36 7.9% Bearish --- -.023 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.72 -.09 15.27 -463% Bearish RED -.238 -.174 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.39 -.23 21.56 41.9% Bearish RED -.026 .044 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-28 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 113 NEWLOWS 91 MAXCP 28 MINCP 49 TTTNH 31 TTTNL 76 FASTUP 34 FASTDOWN 138 CPCROSSA 38 CPCROSSD 129 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 26 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 5 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 144 REDSELL 78 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 23 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/28/19 Bullish 7 Bearish 36 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .902 .893 .902 .922 .902 INSURANC .777 .888 .851 .925 .925 .962 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .647 .647 .764 .647 SOLAR .588 .529 .588 .647 .647 .529 REIT .557 .646 .612 .632 .632 .544 GUNS .529 .529 .529 .529 .47 .47 UTILITY .525 .625 .625 .6 .6 .6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 JETS .5 .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BEVERAGE .47 .529 .588 .588 .588 .529 DOWJONES .466 .533 .533 .566 .5 .5 SOFTWARE .435 .435 .387 .516 .532 .483 SP500 .397 .441 .429 .486 .509 .433 MILITARY .379 .413 .413 .482 .551 .379 FIDSTKS .372 .448 .432 .481 .518 .432 SP-100 .372 .468 .468 .478 .5 .414 FINANCE .363 .409 .34 .443 .522 .397 RUS-1000 .363 .412 .387 .453 .473 .407 NASD-100 .322 .364 .364 .395 .427 .406 GREEN .318 .318 .318 .454 .454 .409 FOOD .314 .222 .185 .222 .296 .277 INFRA .305 .388 .277 .416 .444 .388 TRANSP .3 .35 .3 .5 .5 .45 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .285 .571 .285 HACKERS .285 .285 .333 .333 .333 .333 NIFTY .28 .315 .333 .368 .438 .35 COMODITY .275 .2 .2 .15 .25 .225 BIOTECH .267 .281 .262 .295 .327 .262 GAMING .26 .217 .217 .26 .304 .304 HOSPITAL .26 .217 .217 .304 .304 .26 AUTO .256 .256 .256 .282 .333 .333 COMPUTER .238 .238 .19 .285 .38 .285 DJI-13 .23 .307 .307 .384 .384 .384 INDEXES .225 .263 .252 .295 .354 .274 OILGAS .184 .184 .17 .248 .312 .262 INDMATER .177 .177 .151 .177 .177 .151 SEMI .171 .189 .189 .252 .261 .216 RETAIL .169 .188 .207 .226 .264 .207 ELECTRON .165 .203 .184 .235 .248 .222 ETFS .157 .14 .14 .21 .228 .122 CHEM .153 .173 .173 .192 .192 .192 REGBANKS .142 .214 .107 .285 .428 .285 CHINA .086 .068 .068 .068 .086 .068 GOLD .081 .081 .081 .061 .061 .061 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0
=====================================================================
5/24/2019 Only 36% of all stocks and ETFs are above their 65-dma. So, it will be
up to the key ETFs, DJI and SPY, to generate an advance here. Continue
to use some bearish MINCPs as hedging short-sales. Note that Up-day volume
was again suspiciously low on Friday, even as Peerless still refuses to give a
Sell.
Look at the bull market in defensive bonds and utilities. Is this a signal? Perhaps,
it means the FEDs will drop rates down to 2%. With the FED's help, the key
indexes (DJI, SP-500, OEX, NYSE, NASDAQ and QQQ) may be able to
avoid breaking their H/S Pattern's necklines right now. This is what happened
at the end of May 1929 when the market's internals were much weaker than now.
(Of course, the FED's intervention then only delayed the 1929 Crash by a few
months and made the diving-board that much higher. See Thursday night's Hotline
for this chart.)
Current DJI remains on Peerless Buys, but H/S Patterns Are Dangerous,
particularly 10+ Years into a bull market that has not seen a 20+% decline.
Usually, when prices come down from a right shoulder to test
the neckline, they do break the support. But with some help from
markedly lower interest rates and the bullishness of pre- and
post-Memorial Day trading, the neckline supports may hold like
they did in May 1929 or in the H/S patterns shown further below.
Our short-term traders, should buy DIA and SPY again on weakness
Monday, with the DJIA above 25300, provided they to use Sell Stops
just underneath their necklines, and reckoning the DJI's key support
to be 25000.
As you can see in the sample historical charts tonight, their 65-dma and the apex of
the right shouders in their H/S patterns should be considered their
short-term resistance-targets. Closes just above the apex of their right shoulders
apexes are usually "release points", where spirited rallies are likely to begin. That Peerless has not given a Sell signal is bullish. So, is the intermediate-term
seasonality for all 3rd Years and for 3rd Years with a Republican President in
the White House. See the statistics below.
Charts 5/24/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/24/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-24/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-24/BEARISH.htmSeasonality after May 27th.
in Years before A Presidential Election
(1967 - ...1971...1975...2011... -2015)
Holding Avg. Pct Pct.of
Period Gain Years Up
-------- --------- ----------
1 Trading Day .003 .688
3 Trading Days .010 .813
5 Trading Days .010 .563
10 Trading Days .016 .755
21 Trading Days .021 .755
42 Trading Days .042 .755
65 Trading Days .06 .813
130 Trading Days .11 .813
DJI When a Republican was in Office
in Year before Presidential Election
5/27 6/27 7/27 8/27
1923 96.70 88.70 88.40 92.50 TeaPot Dome Scandal
1927 172.20 165.70 180.10 188.80 Lower Rates
1955 425.7 449.9 468.5 463.7
1959 636.7 639.3 669.1 663.3
1971 905.78 876.68 880.7 908.15
1975 826.11 873.12 834.09 807.2
1983 1216.14 1229.47 1230.47 1192.97
1987 2295.81 2436.86 2493.94 2675.06 (major top))
1991 2913.91 2934.93 2972.5 3026.16
6 up 7 up 6 up
3 down 2 down 3 down
Examples of What Happens when Prices Rise above right shoulder Apex:
Example: INTU
DJI Example from 1987
DJI Example from 1996
DJI Example from 2009
DJI Example from 2013
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/24/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.12 1.36 256.67 -25.7% Bullish RED .174 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.9 4.35 352.79 -1.7% Bullish RED .019 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.78 .64 283.95 -53.7% Bullish RED .091 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.16 -.09 179.95 -134.9% Bullish RED .076 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 339.95 1.89 341.99 -65% Bullish BLUE .116 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.79 1.4 151.78 -67.4% Bullish BLUE .095 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.17 1.26 68.22 -32.8% Bullish BLUE .153 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.1 .09 24.57 -353% ------- BLUE-.004 -.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 109.88 -2.93 119.25 -1044.2% Bullish RED .034 -.128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 131.84 .12 136.29 -437.4% Bullish RED .07 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.2 .43 102.32 20.7% Bullish BLUE .161 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.81 -.2 15.07 -431.4% Bearish RED -.185 -.188 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.62 .22 21.21 112.1% Bearish RED .002 .054Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-24 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 132 NEWLOWS 45 MAXCP 40 MINCP 28 TTTNH 29 TTTNL 36 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 133 CPCROSSA 51 CPCROSSD 41 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 13 REDSELL 71 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 24 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/24/19 Bullish = 10 Bearish = 34 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .902 .893 .902 .922 .912 .902 INSURANC .888 .851 .925 .925 .962 .925 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .647 .764 .647 .705 REIT .646 .612 .632 .632 .551 .693 UTILITY .625 .625 .6 .6 .6 .55 JETS .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 .6 DOWJONES .533 .533 .566 .5 .5 .466 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 GUNS .529 .529 .529 .47 .47 .47 SOLAR .529 .588 .647 .647 .529 .588 N=10 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .333 ============================================================================================ SP-100 .468 .468 .478 .5 .436 .436 FIDSTKS .448 .432 .481 .518 .437 .459 SP500 .441 .429 .486 .509 .448 .474 SOFTWARE .435 .387 .516 .532 .5 .532 MILITARY .413 .413 .482 .551 .379 .448RUS-1000 .412 .387 .452 .474 .419 .453 FINANCE .409 .34 .443 .522 .42 .352 INFRA .388 .277 .416 .444 .388 .416 NASD-100 .364 .364 .395 .427 .406 .468 TRANSP .35 .3 .5 .5 .45 .45GREEN .318 .318 .454 .454 .409 .454 NIFTY .315 .333 .368 .438 .368 .456 DJI-13 .307 .307 .384 .384 .384 .307 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .571 .285 .285 HACKERS .285 .333 .333 .333 .333 .333BIOTECH .278 .262 .295 .327 .273 .303 INDEXES .263 .252 .295 .354 .274 .37 AUTO .256 .256 .282 .333 .333 .256 COMPUTER .238 .19 .285 .38 .285 .285 FOOD .222 .185 .222 .296 .24 .203GAMING .217 .217 .26 .304 .304 .347 HOSPITAL .217 .217 .304 .304 .26 .26 REGBANKS .214 .107 .285 .428 .25 .214 ELECTRON .203 .184 .235 .248 .222 .312 COMODITY .2 .2 .15 .25 .225 .2SEMI .189 .189 .252 .261 .225 .333 RETAIL .188 .207 .226 .264 .226 .207 OILGAS .184 .17 .248 .312 .262 .262 INDMATER .177 .151 .177 .177 .151 .189 CHEM .173 .173 .192 .192 .211 .211ETFS .14 .14 .21 .228 .14 .157 GOLD .081 .081 .061 .061 .061 .061 CHINA .068 .068 .068 .086 .068 .086 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=34
====================================================================
The FED may want a Summer Rally, after all.
5/23/2019 Is the Fed quietly pushing interest rates down to support the market
and bring a Summer Rally despite the menacing head and shoulders and
scary talk about Trump's tariffs. A pre- and post-Memorial Day bounce
now should not come as a surprise. I think that we should watch the key 65-day mvg.
average - resistance levels now. If they are surpassed, I would judge the
neckline-tests to be successful and buy more DIA and SPY, but not QQQ.
Among the past charts that we can look at for guidance is the DJI's in the
Summer of 1929 soon after the FED intervened to support the stock market
at its key support level.
FED's INTERVENTION IN 1929 BROUGHT A 20% SUMMER RALLY,
From Memorial Day to September 3rd.
(Fed polcies in 1929 were half-hearted and erratic. They make an interesting story. They new the
stock market was overheating, but they were also concerned not to weaken an economy that was
slowing down. The NY Fed had exceptional power and was more concerned about stock market
Professionals. Making matters worse, half of all loans were going to trade stocks in the middle of
1929 with many outside coporations getting in on this profitable business. Details will be presented
in a new detailed Peerless manual of the years 1915-1941. See also:
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/bogsub110130.pdf
http://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre1929060800 )
CURRENT DJIA
Peerless Buy Signals versus Multiple Un-Completed Head/Shoulders
SPY
The NASDAQ is now under-performing the DJI and did slightly break
below its neckline. This is very clear-cut H/S pattern. It will need to rise
above its right-shoulder apex for the pattern to be voided.
FED'S DOVISH INTERVENTION?
Interest rates fell considerably today. Is the FED now going to lower interest rates
to hold up and then boost the stock market this Summer.
The drop in the 10-year and short-term rates did push up Utilities again today.
More important, it also encouraged Professionals to support the key indexes at their
very important necklines. But it remains unclear if speculative moneys will return
to normal equities on the next rally. We will have to see a break in the downtrend
of our Nifty High Tech Index.
NIFTY HIGH TECHS
Charts 5/23/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/23/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-23/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-23/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/23/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 254.76 -2.84 257.44 -85.3% Bullish RED .175 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 350.55 -2.23 355.02 -46% Bullish BLUE .091 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.14 -3.49 285.84 -97.2% Bullish RED .111 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.25 -2.77 183.04 -183.4% Bullish RED .107 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 338.06 -5.51 344.41 -153.9% Bullish RED .099 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.39 -3.14 152.84 -183.1% Bullish RED .085 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.91 -2.61 68.62 -208.1% Bullish RED .158 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 23.01 -.99 24.82 -461.2% Bearish RED -.023 -.235 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 112.81 -6.01 135.49 -1210.2% Bullish BLUE .06 -.116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 131.72 -7.26 143.95 -567.3% Bullish RED .086 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.77 -.91 103.77 -32.2% Bullish ---- .202 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.01 -.73 15.09 -521.4% Bearish RED -.198 -.169 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.4 -.3 21.14 39.8% Bearish RED .007 .047 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-23 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 119 NEWLOWS 112 MAXCP 64 MINCP 38 TTTNH 30 TTTNL 59 FASTUP 33 FASTDOWN 148 CPCROSSA 31 CPCROSSD 135 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 15 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 156 REDSELL 71 AUGSELS7 13 TRAPDOOR 25 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/23/19 Bullish = 9 Bearish = 34 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .892 .901 .921 .911 .911 .901 INSURANC .851 .925 .925 .962 .925 .962 HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .764 .647 .705 .764 UTILITY .625 .6 .6 .6 .575 .575 REIT .612 .632 .632 .551 .687 .741 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 .588 SOLAR .588 .647 .647 .529 .588 .764 DOWJONES .533 .566 .5 .5 .466 .466 GUNS .529 .529 .47 .47 .47 .47 =============================================================================================== EDU .5 .5 .5 .5 .333 .666 JETS .5 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 =============================================================================================== SP-100 .468 .478 .5 .436 .436 .478 FIDSTKS .432 .481 .518 .437 .459 .497 SP500 .429 .486 .509 .448 .474 .507 MILITARY .413 .482 .551 .379 .448 .448 RUS-1000 .387 .452 .473 .42 .453 .492 SOFTWARE .387 .516 .532 .5 .532 .548 NASD-100 .364 .395 .427 .406 .468 .51 FINANCE .34 .443 .522 .42 .352 .443 HACKERS .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 .428 NIFTY .333 .368 .438 .368 .456 .473 GREEN .318 .454 .454 .409 .454 .5 DJI-13 .307 .384 .384 .384 .307 .384 TRANSP .3 .5 .5 .45 .45 .45 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .571 .285 .285 .714 INFRA .277 .416 .444 .388 .416 .472 BIOTECH .259 .295 .327 .273 .3 .344 INDEXES .258 .295 .354 .274 .376 .446 AUTO .256 .282 .333 .333 .256 .333 GAMING .217 .26 .304 .304 .347 .434 HOSPITAL .217 .304 .304 .26 .26 .304 RETAIL .207 .226 .264 .226 .207 .207 COMODITY .2 .15 .25 .225 .2 .225 COMPUTER .19 .285 .38 .285 .285 .333 SEMI .19 .254 .263 .227 .336 .427 ELECTRON .187 .238 .251 .225 .309 .412 FOOD .185 .222 .296 .24 .203 .24 CHEM .173 .192 .192 .211 .23 .269 OILGAS .17 .248 .312 .262 .269 .326 INDMATER .151 .177 .177 .151 .189 .253 ETFS .14 .21 .228 .14 .157 .21 REGBANKS .107 .285 .428 .25 .214 .357 GOLD .081 .061 .061 .061 .061 .061 CHINA .067 .067 .084 .067 .101 .135 COAL 0 0 0 0 0 .285
====================================================================
5/22/2019 Our Buy signals are clearly in trouble. Do some more hedging with our
Bearish MINCPs as short sales and sell off half of the long positions in
SPY and DIA. We need to see signs of a bottom before holding much
of a position in them long. "Discretion" and "Prudence" are needed now.
I fear a breaking of the neckline will bring a big new wave of selling and
a dangerous rise in leveraged short-sale hedging.
What bullish Public policy-making, micro-circuitry and the internet melded
into for a huge 3200% rise in the DJI from August 1982 (777) to 2019 (26500)
might now be taken away if Wall Street turns against Trump's tariffs in an age of
world-wide inter-dependence.
Might we now see the start of a big correction? Normally, we would see some
major Sell signals, some weakening breadth indicators and/or red distribution
from our Accumulation Index. But, as you should know, head and shoulders tops
can also bring very big declines when they reflect Wall Street's quick pivoting
to a bearish perspective because of sudden changes, invasions, attacks and
unexpected public policies.
I've mentioned how head/shoulders warned of the coming Depression in the
aftermath of the Smoot Hawley Tariff of 1930. But there are many other examples
of DJI head/shoulders patterns bringing big declines: 1929, 1940, 1941, 1946,
1948, 1950, 1962, 1974. 1990 and 2002... So any closing below 25000 must
be treated as a judged Sell S10.
The DJI is down more than 200 presently. It usually goes up before Memorial Day
weekend. Such weakness now shows the market is in trouble. New lows
outnumbered new highs again today on the NASDAQ and only 40% of all stocks
and ETFs are still above their 65-dma. Twice as many groups are rated as "bearish"
as bullish in Table 3.
That Head/Shoulders patterns have now formed in all the key ETFs is quite bearish,
I would judge. Once formed, they are nuch more likely to break their neckline than
not. And they are very self-fulfilling if the break takes them below the support of
their 65-dma. The height of their pattern taken down from their neckline then
becomes the MINIMUM new downside projection.
Besides, 1930, the stock market now can, perhaps, best be compared to two past
cases. With the DJI's price V-formation and then a break in the rising NYSE A/D Line,
I would compare the market now to its top in 2002, except that we did not get a Sell
signal at the recent top. This 2002 case brought a deep decline and bear market.
Watch the A/D Line closely now.
Our market now can also be compared to 1971 when the DJI fell nearly 20%
from its peak because if was un-nerved by inflation, by the escalating war in Vietnam,
by Nixon's price and wage freeze and by the Dollar no longer being backed by Gold.
Technically, the similarities between the top in 1971 and now are interesting and
scary. Note in the DJI's chart then, its clear cut head/shoulders pattern and the way
the P-Indicator turned negative after being positive five straight months. Here we have
head and shoulders in all the main indexes and the P-Indicator has stayed positive for
more than 4 straight months.
Similar H/S top in 1971
Charts 5/22/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/22/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-22/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-22/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/22/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.6 -1.17 259.16 13.2% Bullish RED .14 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 352.78 -5.97 353.81 101.1% Bullish RED 0 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 285.63 -.88 287.7 10% Bullish BLUE .083 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 181.02 -.81 184.93 -56.7% Bullish BLUE .074 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 343.57 -2.92 348.68 -42.5% Bullish RED .098 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.53 -1.29 155 -49.2% Bullish RED .111 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.52 -.32 69.79 135.9% Bullish BLUE .158 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 118.82 -7.93 144 -1213.8% Bullish RED .012 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 138.98 -2.2 147.79 -151.6% Bullish BLUE .059 .092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.68 .33 104.44 63.2% Bullish BLUE .135 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.24 -.12 121.51 -88.8% Bearish RED -.109 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.7 .14 21.23 124.6% Bearish ---- -.002 .049TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190522 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 140 NEWLOWS 58 MAXCP 80 MINCP 26 TTTNH 50 TTTNL 27 FASTUP 32 FASTDOWN 148 CPCROSSA 33 CPCROSSD 125 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 148 REDSELL 62 AUGSELS7 7 TRAPDOOR 25Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/22/19 Bullish = 11 Bearish = 33 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .928 .928 .964 .928 .964 .928 BONDFUND .902 .922 .912 .912 .912 .922 HOMEBLDG .647 .764 .647 .705 .764 .705 SOLAR .647 .647 .529 .588 .764 .647 REIT .632 .632 .551 .687 .734 .687 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 UTILITY .6 .6 .6 .575 .575 .55 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .529 .529 .588 .647 DOWJONES .566 .5 .5 .466 .5 .433 GUNS .529 .47 .47 .47 .47 .529 SOFTWARE .516 .532 .5 .532 .548 .532 ============================================================================================ EDU .5 .5 .5 .333 .833 .666 TRANSP .5 .5 .45 .45 .45 .45 =============================================================================================SP-100 .489 .51 .445 .445 .5 .423 SP500 .486 .509 .448 .474 .509 .464 MILITARY .482 .551 .379 .448 .448 .379 FIDSTKS .481 .518 .437 .459 .502 .448 GREEN .454 .454 .409 .454 .5 .5 RUS-1000 .451 .472 .418 .454 .495 .459 FINANCE .443 .522 .42 .352 .443 .363 INFRA .416 .444 .388 .416 .472 .388 NASD-100 .395 .427 .406 .468 .51 .458 DJI-13 .384 .384 .384 .307 .461 .384 NIFTY .368 .438 .368 .456 .491 .438 HACKERS .333 .333 .333 .333 .428 .333 HOSPITAL .304 .304 .26 .26 .26 .304 INDEXES .295 .354 .274 .376 .451 .36 BIOTECH .292 .327 .273 .3 .344 .341 BIGBANKS .285 .571 .285 .285 .714 .285 COMPUTER .285 .38 .285 .285 .38 .333 REGBANKS .285 .428 .25 .214 .357 .178 AUTO .282 .333 .333 .256 .333 .333 GAMING .26 .304 .304 .347 .434 .304 SEMI .252 .261 .225 .333 .423 .477 OILGAS .248 .312 .262 .269 .333 .326 ELECTRON .235 .248 .222 .305 .407 .394 RETAIL .226 .264 .226 .207 .207 .169 FOOD .222 .296 .24 .203 .222 .203 ETFS .21 .228 .14 .157 .21 .122 CHEM .192 .192 .211 .23 .307 .23 INDMATER .177 .177 .151 .189 .265 .189 COMODITY .15 .25 .225 .2 .225 .2 CHINA .067 .084 .067 .101 .135 .135 GOLD .061 .061 .061 .061 .061 .081 COAL 0 0 0 0 .285 .285
====================================================================
5/21/2019 Peerless still shows its recent Buy signals to be unreversed. The DJI and SP-500
as well as Utilities (new high today) and REITs will keep benefiting from the low
interest rate environment, the strong Dollar and how investment funds are gravitating to
what may be the last groups standing unless the market gets a new boost from the
Government, such as a new Infrastructure spending intervention or the FED unexpectedly
decides to actually lower rates to boost the Economy.
Hold long DJI and SPY and stay short some Bearish MINCPS. I suggested
selling our long position in QQQ today because of the fall-out from the decline
in semi-conductors and the trade war, generally.
----------------------- 5: 30 AM -------------------------------
A Post Script: In my opinion, the biggest danger now is not Trump or his tariffs.
Rather it is "technical", namely that the many head/shoulders patterns
will be completed and this will bring a self-fulfilling wave of selling from many
quarters. If that does happen, Wall Street, itself, can be blamed as in 2008
for creating so many leveraged hedging tools that probably be in sudden
great demand. That is why we will have to trust a DJI close below 25000 to
be a judged S10. Let's hope we can get out, if necessary, before such
an avalanche. Usually, this week is bullish and there will be more time to
consider the risks of completed head/shoulders more this weekend if needed.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
causes..
The problem for the bulls now is that much of the market is no longer in an uptrend.
In fact, more stocks on the NASDAQ made new lows today than new highs despite
the nearly 200-point DJI gain. In addition, two thirds of our stock groups are rated
as "bearish" rather than "bullish" in Table 3. So, the pressure is on the DJI and the
FED to hold the market up...
Charts 5/21/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/21/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-21/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-21/BEARISH.htmThe Market Is in "Pondering" Mode...
Patience is needed now from traders while the stock market copes with the cross-currents
of over-seas sellers vs Professional buying and while it waits for more of the dust to settle
from the US trade-war againt China. The market has a lot to try to make sense of at this
juncture.
In my view, the threat of impeachment by the Democrats is not serious enough yet to
hold back the market for long, though, if "smoking guns" were found that might change
things.
Might Consumers now be tapped out? Only if interest rates go up over 4% would
that cause a recession and a 20% market decline or more. (I base this on the 1950'a
experience). So far, Inflation is under 3% and 10-year Bonds are well under 3%.
Real Wages have actually fallen slight over the last two months and are flat for the year.
(See https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf. )
But might Trump's tariffs cause, or just be used to justify, a run-up in Consumer Prices?
Might the FED then raise rates exactly as the effects of tariffs start taking a lot of
money out of Consumers' pockets. And won't the trade war hurt lots of American companies
that are deeply entangled with Chinese partners and deeply dependent on cheaper
Chinese manufactured goods? Yes - that is certainly the uncertainty that the market's
hesistation now is coping with. The head/shoulders pattern show these risks are real.
(See the 1930 DJI chart I showed last night. The new 1930 US tariffs along with
other fiscal and monetary policy-mistakes all played important roles in bringing on the
Great Depression and bear market.
Inflation is not yet a threat yet. In fact, with the Dollar's making a
new high today, one could even argue for a rate-cut to boost
exports and help overseas borrowers who must pay back in
expensive Dollars.
.
Chip-Makers are feeling the effects
of Trump's New Tariffs and Bans on Chinese Manufactures.
This will hurt QQQ. Let's avoid QQQ for now.
Semi-conductors have been leaders for a long time. But now SOXL has fallen below
its 65-dma. As the fastest area of profits' growth, we must watch them closely.
See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-21/u-s-chipmakers-prepare-for-china-trade-fight-all-will-suffer?srnd=premium
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/21/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 258.77 2.1 256.92 57.5% Bullish BLUE .187 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 358.75 5.96 345.64 224.4% Bullish BLUE .007 -.111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 286.51 2.56 285.06 54.5% Bullish BLUE .117 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 181.83 1.88 183.09 35.4% Bullish BLUE .124 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.49 4.5 346.51 15.3% Bullish BLUE .153 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.82 2.04 154.04 9.1% Bullish BLUE .156 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.84 1.62 67.65 171.2% Bullish BLUE .192 .122 highest --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.43 .86 25.34 -4% Bullish BLUE .158 -.161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 126.75 7.5 151.7 -763.1% Bullish RED .046 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 141.18 4.89 143.3 72.1% Bullish BLUE .098 .127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.35 2.03 103.37 92.5% Bullish BLUE .152 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.36 -.28 122.39 -86.4% Bearish BLUE-.058 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.27 .2 15.47 -22.9% ------- BLUE-.175 -.084 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.56 .35 21.17 99.2% Bearish BLUE .029 .044 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-21 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 123 NEWLOWS 18 MAXCP 90 MINCP 11 TTTNH 57 TTTNL 13 FASTUP 46 FASTDOWN 111 CPCROSSA 90 CPCROSSD 22 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 145 REDSELL 60 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 24 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/21/19 Bearish = 28 Bullish = 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .928 .964 .928 .964 .928 .892 BONDFUND .922 .912 .912 .912 .932 .922 HOMEBLDG .764 .647 .705 .764 .705 .705 SOLAR .647 .529 .588 .764 .647 .529 REIT .632 .551 .687 .734 .687 .646 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 UTILITY .6 .6 .575 .575 .55 .575 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .588 .647 .529 BIGBANKS .571 .285 .285 .714 .285 .285 MILITARY .551 .379 .448 .448 .379 .379 SOFTWARE .532 .5 .532 .548 .532 .467 FINANCE .522 .42 .352 .443 .363 .397 FIDSTKS .518 .437 .459 .502 .448 .432 SP500 .509 .448 .474 .509 .464 .452 ============================================================================================ DOWJONES .5 .5 .466 .5 .433 .366 EDU .5 .5 .333 .833 .833 .666 SP-100 .5 .436 .436 .489 .414 .382 TRANSP .5 .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 ============================================================================================ RUS-1000 .472 .418 .453 .496 .461 .447 GUNS .47 .47 .47 .47 .529 .529 GREEN .454 .409 .454 .5 .5 .454 INFRA .444 .388 .416 .472 .388 .361 NIFTY .438 .368 .456 .491 .438 .385 REGBANKS .428 .25 .214 .357 .178 .321 NASD-100 .427 .406 .468 .51 .458 .406 DJI-13 .384 .384 .307 .461 .384 .23 COMPUTER .38 .285 .285 .38 .333 .285 INDEXES .354 .274 .376 .451 .37 .29 AUTO .333 .333 .256 .333 .333 .282 HACKERS .333 .333 .333 .428 .333 .333 BIOTECH .325 .273 .3 .344 .341 .297 OILGAS .312 .262 .269 .333 .326 .297 GAMING .304 .304 .347 .434 .304 .26 HOSPITAL .304 .26 .26 .26 .304 .347 FOOD .296 .24 .203 .222 .203 .203 RETAIL .264 .226 .207 .207 .169 .15 SEMI .261 .225 .333 .423 .477 .432 COMODITY .25 .225 .2 .225 .2 .2 ELECTRON .248 .222 .305 .407 .401 .375 ETFS .228 .14 .157 .21 .157 .087 CHEM .192 .211 .23 .307 .25 .25 INDMATER .177 .151 .189 .265 .189 .177 CHINA .084 .067 .101 .135 .135 .135 GOLD .061 .061 .061 .061 .081 .081 COAL 0 0 0 .285 .285 .142====================================================================
5/20/2019 Peerless still shows its recent Buy signals to be unreversed.
We can take some heart in the overnight rally of +140 for the DJI, at
this writing. Our long positions is DIA and SPY look safe. But keep in
mind that our Peerless judges the market from the vantage point of view
of the DJI and its blue chips. Their job is to hold up the appearance to
the general public as long as possible that all is well in the stock market.
Now ten plus years into our bull market, the risks of a 20% or more decline
are growing. The P-Indicator today turned negative. The rest of the market
may be disconnecting from the blue chips and defensive stocks.
The fact is that I have never seen so many dangerous-looking, symmetrical
head and shoulders patterns in the key indexes and ETFs, like the NASDAQ,
OEX, NYSE, SP-500 and QQQ. Any break in their neclines at the end of the
day would have to be taken as a Sell.
I must give this additional warning. It is much more common for the NASDAQ
to complete its bearish-looking pattern than not to complete it by rupturing its
neckline. See the NASDAQ's head/shoulders top formations since 1990
at www.tigersoft.com/NASDAQ-HS/
As you know, head and shoulders patterns are the market's way of adjusting
quickly to unexpected but often profoundly bearish news. Wall Street appears to
have increasing doubts about Trump's escalating tariffs' war with China. Head and
shoulders tops were how Wall Street communicated its displeasure with the
Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the Summer of1930 as the stock market pivoted down
from its 47% recovery after the Crash of 1929 and sunk in its long and deadly 1
1930-1932 bear market.
In particular, we must now watch for a break in QQQ's neckline-support on the close.
It is not good that the Semi-Conductors ETF, SOXL, has now closed below its own
neckline and TECL could with another big drop break its own neckline. The Index
of our "Nifty high-volume" tech stocks has not only broken its price-uptrend and its
65-dma, it, too, could on one more big down-day break its own neckline support.
The overall market is becoming quite weak. There were more new lows than new
highs today. Only 44% of all stocks are above the key support of their 65-dma
and we rate three times more groups as being bearish than bullish in Table 3. The
Chinese stock market is crashing. Other overseas markets are feeling the impact
of this.
Conclusion:
I would be selling QQQ tomorrow into strength but hold DIA and SPY.
Add a few more short sales from our bearish MINCPs tonight.
Charts 5/20/2019
2019 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/20/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-20/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-20/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/20/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.67 -.77 255.81 62.4% Bullish BLUE .169 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 352.79 -2.23 343.04 222.2% Bullish RED -.038 -.173 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 283.95 -1.89 283.4 54.3% Bullish RED .126 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 179.95 -3.09 180.54 37.6% Bullish RED .119 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.99 -2.42 345.43 -1.4% Bullish RED .133 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.78 -1.06 153.54 4.9% Bullish RED .139 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.22 -.4 67.5 176.1% Bullish BLUE .183 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.57 -.25 25.45 12% ------- ---- .072 -.146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 119.25 -16.24 148.07 -659.6% Bullish RED .042 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 136.29 -7.66 139.13 127% Bullish RED .117 .159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.32 -1.45 102.44 48.5% Bullish RED .123 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.64 -.01 122.46 -83.2% Bearish BLUE -.092 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.07 -.02 15.34 75.3% ------- ---- -.132 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.21 .07 21.14 130.5% Bearish ---- .02 .044 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-20 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 76 NEWLOWS 69 MAXCP 80 MINCP 22 TTTNH 65 TTTNL 27 FASTUP 45 FASTDOWN 110 CPCROSSA 46 CPCROSSD 69 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 9 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 18 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 60 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 25 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/20/19 Bullish = 8 Bearish = 31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .964 .928 .964 .928 .892 .821 BONDFUND .912 .912 .912 .932 .922 .932 HOMEBLDG .647 .705 .764 .705 .705 .647 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 UTILITY .6 .575 .575 .55 .6 .625 REIT .551 .687 .734 .687 .646 .591 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .588 .647 .529 .529 SOLAR .529 .588 .764 .647 .529 .411 N=8 ========================================================================================== DOWJONES .5 .466 .5 .433 .4 .366 EDU .5 .333 .833 .833 .666 .833 SOFTWARE .5 .532 .548 .532 .467 .387 ========================================================================================== GUNS .47 .47 .47 .529 .529 .47 TRANSP .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 SP500 .448 .474 .509 .464 .456 .397 FIDSTKS .437 .459 .502 .448 .437 .394 SP-100 .436 .436 .489 .414 .393 .361 FINANCE .42 .352 .443 .363 .409 .318 RUS-1000 .418 .453 .495 .462 .45 .391 GREEN .409 .454 .5 .5 .454 .5 NASD-100 .406 .468 .51 .458 .406 .354 INFRA .388 .416 .472 .388 .361 .333 DJI-13 .384 .307 .461 .384 .307 .23 MILITARY .379 .448 .448 .379 .379 .379 NIFTY .368 .456 .491 .438 .403 .35 AUTO .333 .256 .333 .333 .282 .256 HACKERS .333 .333 .428 .333 .333 .285 GAMING .304 .347 .434 .304 .26 .304 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .714 .285 .285 .428 COMPUTER .285 .285 .38 .333 .285 .285 INDEXES .274 .376 .451 .37 .29 .263 BIOTECH .27 .3 .344 .341 .3 .27 OILGAS .262 .269 .333 .326 .304 .226 HOSPITAL .26 .26 .26 .304 .347 .26 REGBANKS .25 .214 .357 .178 .357 .107 FOOD .245 .207 .226 .207 .207 .207 RETAIL .226 .207 .207 .169 .15 .132 COMODITY .225 .2 .225 .2 .2 .2 SEMI .225 .333 .423 .477 .432 .333 ELECTRON .222 .305 .407 .401 .375 .312 CHEM .211 .23 .307 .25 .269 .23 INDMATER .151 .189 .265 .189 .177 .139 ETFS .14 .157 .21 .157 .087 .017 CHINA .067 .101 .135 .135 .135 .084 GOLD .061 .061 .061 .081 .081 .142 COAL 0 0 .285 .285 .142 0
====================================================================
5/17/2019 The many Peerless Buy signals, the still rising NYSE A/D Line, the rising
Closing Powers and the low interest rates all bode well for a Summer Rally.
But this is still a defensive market and a market that favors only some
very big high techs and mainly the biggest ETFs. More stocks are still below their
65-dma than above it. Only 9 of the 46 stock groups we follow have the majority
of their stocks safely above the 65-dma. This is not a market that likes many
smaller cap stocks yet and Chinese stocks are particularly weak. We will probably
get a Sell S9v if the DJI does rally back close to 27000. But for now 25000
is support and Wall Street, the Fed, the Treasury and Trump Administration seem
ready to do what it takes to hold the market up. Perhaps, that will include a
new Public Works program soon, though CAT's decline might seem to suggest
otherwise.
We have to be patient right now. The leading ETFs, the NASDAQ, SP-500,
OEX, QQQ and TECL need to destroy their potential head and shoulders
tops. Their high level of Accumulation and rising Closing Powers make it
seem highly likely that they will do this. But more backing and filling is probably
necessary.
Friday's decline should have been expected despite the Peerless Buy signals
because the various key Indexes and ETFs hit their first resistance points on
Thursday. In the charts below, note the resistance levels that still apply.
Close Today Resistance
DJI 25764 65-dma @ 26000
DIA 257.44 65-dma @ 260.
SP-500 2859.53 Apex of a right shoulder in a potential head/shoulders @ 2889
SPY 290.00 Apex of a right shoulder in a potential head/shoulders @ 289
NASDAQ 7816 Apex of a right shoulder in a potential head/shoulders @ 7921
QQQ 183.04 Apex of a right shoulder in a potential head/shoulders @186
TECL Apex of a right shoulder in a potential head/shoulders @ 150.5
With Peerless Buy signals operating, I think we should consider buying those ETFs
and leading stocks that are already above their 65-dma resistance and show multiple
TigerSoft B7s. Do not confuse these CP divergence B7s with Peerless signals.
The TigerSoft B7s show that our Closing Power is much stronger than price action
for the last 65 trading days. "CP%" (which measure how close to the Closing Power
is to its 65-day high from its low) is 37 higher than "Price%" over the last 65 trading days.
Among the stocks we link to each night, some show multiple TigerSoft
Buy B7s, are bullishly above their 65-dma resistance (which should now be support) and
show an IP21 greater than +.15. Most of these should be bought near their 65-dma.
Otherwise, hold the long positions already taken in DIA, SPY and QQQ.
Close IP21 65-dma Resistance
Support from right shoulder apex
NASDAQ 7816.29 .250 7788 7921
FAS 68.62 .176 65.88 70.5
QQQ 183.04 .154 181 186
TQQQ 58.84 .174 58.1 61.45
SPY 285.84 .168 285 289
TECL 143.95 .174 141 150
Charts 5/17/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/17/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-17/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-17/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/17/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.44 -1.72 253.47 -48.2% Bullish BLUE .185 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 355.02 1.21 337.37 5% Bullish BLUE -.029 -.17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 285.84 -1.86 280.86 -39.6% Bullish BLUE .168 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.04 -1.89 178.58 -53.7% Bullish RED .154 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 344.41 -4.27 342.09 -115.7% Bullish RED .172 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.84 -2.16 151.63 -122.6% Bullish RED .17 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.62 -1.17 65.83 -146.5% Bullish BLUE .177 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 135.49 -8.51 138.18 -854.8% Bullish RED .095 .14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 143.95 -3.84 132.7 -195.5% Bullish BLUE .154 .221 (highest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.77 -.67 101.32 -59.5% Bullish RED .141 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.65 -.86 122.67 -31.9% Bearish RED -.102 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.09 -.5 14.84 -130.3% ------- RED -.174 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.14 -.09 20.66 49.9% Bearish --- -.033 .031 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190517 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 103 NEWLOWS 52 MAXCP 104 MINCP 17 TTTNH 90 TTTNL 18 FASTUP 32 FASTDOWN 158 CPCROSSA 32 CPCROSSD 92 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 13 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 17 LOWACCUM 154 REDSELL 65 AUGSELS7 7 TRAPDOOR 25Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/17/19 Bullish= 9 Bearish= 37 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .928 .964 .928 .892 .821 .928 BONDFUND .912 .912 .932 .922 .932 .961 HOMEBLDG .705 .764 .705 .705 .647 .764 REIT .682 .729 .682 .641 .601 .655 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 UTILITY .575 .575 .55 .6 .625 .65 SOLAR .555 .722 .611 .5 .388 .5 SOFTWARE .532 .548 .532 .467 .419 .532 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .647 .529 .529 .588 N=9 ========================================================================= SP500 .477 .512 .467 .459 .404 .565 GUNS .47 .47 .529 .529 .47 .647 NASD-100 .468 .51 .458 .406 .354 .572 DOWJONES .466 .5 .433 .4 .366 .566 FIDSTKS .459 .502 .448 .437 .394 .594 NIFTY .456 .491 .438 .403 .368 .526 GREEN .454 .5 .5 .454 .5 .545 RUS-1000 .453 .495 .461 .451 .396 .542 TRANSP .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 MILITARY .448 .448 .379 .379 .379 .551 SP-100 .445 .5 .423 .402 .38 .554 INFRA .416 .472 .388 .361 .333 .472 INDEXES .372 .448 .367 .286 .259 .567 FINANCE .352 .443 .363 .409 .329 .613 GAMING .347 .434 .304 .26 .304 .391 EDU .333 .833 .833 .666 .833 .833 HACKERS .333 .428 .333 .333 .285 .476 SEMI .333 .423 .477 .432 .333 .522 DJI-13 .307 .461 .384 .307 .23 .615 ELECTRON .305 .407 .401 .375 .312 .445 BIOTECH .297 .344 .341 .3 .273 .39 BIGBANKS .285 .714 .285 .285 .428 .857 COMPUTER .285 .38 .333 .285 .285 .476 OILGAS .269 .333 .326 .304 .226 .347 HOSPITAL .26 .26 .304 .347 .26 .391 AUTO .256 .333 .333 .282 .282 .41 INDMATER .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 CHEM .23 .307 .25 .269 .25 .346 REGBANKS .214 .357 .178 .357 .107 .678 FOOD .207 .226 .207 .207 .207 .226 RETAIL .207 .207 .169 .15 .132 .377 COMODITY .2 .225 .2 .2 .2 .225 ETFS .157 .21 .157 .087 .017 .35 CHINA .101 .135 .135 .135 .101 .135 GOLD .061 .061 .081 .081 .142 .081 COAL 0 .285 .285 .142 .142 .285====================================================================
5/16/2019 Peerless still shows many unreversed Buy signals. Finally we saw a higher
opening and a higher close. Now we need to see the key indexes and ETFs, which
we most closely follow, breakout above their 65-dma and the right shoulder
apexes in their potential head and shoulders pattern. The DJI is the leader that
most traders watch. Though up, the DJI did pull back from 26000. It is still possible that
there will be another test of the key support at 25000. I say this because Table 3
shows that only 1/3 of the stock groups we follow "safely" show a majority of
their stocks above the 65-dma. In addition, our DJI chart shows less than 1/2 of all the 5000 stocks we follow we are safely above their 65-dma. Most likely, this
underlying technical weakness will express itself by limiting the DJI's abiity to advance
much this summer unless a new boost is given the market by lower interest rates or
some other unexpected stimulus occurs.
Continue to hold the long positions we have in DIA, SPY, QQQ, V, MC and LLL.
We will buy TECL because it shows the highest IP21 and ITRS in (Table 1) next week.
Mondays have too often brought declines to hastily buy now. Presumably,
this is the result of unexpected weekend Presidential "tweets". Watch TECL for
a good clue about how Professionals will treat tech stocks at this juncture. Stay short some of
the bearish MINCP, too, but only so long as their Closing Powers remain in downtrends.
Dow Jones is no longer providing the Hourly DJI and Volume data during weekday.
If any of you have an on-line source for this, please email me.
DJIA
NASDAQ
SP-500
QQQ
TECL
Charts 5/16/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/16/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-16/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-16/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/16/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 255.81 2.34 259.66 -71.8% ------- BLUE .162 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 343.04 5.67 359.75 -201.2% Bearish BLUE-.087 -.198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 283.4 2.54 287.53 -79.1% ------- BLUE .163 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 180.54 1.96 185.77 -154.8% ------- BLUE .176 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.43 3.34 352.12 -111.1% Bullish BLUE .158 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.54 1.91 156.76 -128.1% Bullish BLUE .188 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.5 1.67 69.4 -166.7% Bullish BLUE .184 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.45 .94 28.93 -596.2% ------- BLUE .157 -.156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.07 9.89 166.34 -702% ------- BLUE .199 .148 (highest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 139.13 6.43 151.36 -436.7% ------- BLUE .2 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.44 1.12 105.59 -152.5% Bearish BLUE .024 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.46 -.21 120.91 51.4% ------- RED -.017 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.34 .5 15.81 -180% Bearish BLUE-.165 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.23 .06 20.93 117.1% Bearish RED .091 .021 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190516 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 195 NEWLOWS 30 MAXCP 139 MINCP 21 TTTNH 79 TTTNL 19 FASTUP 45 FASTDOWN 126 CPCROSSA 56 CPCROSSD 68 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 16 LOWACCUM 144 REDSELL 62 AUGSELS7 6 TRAPDOOR 26 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/16/19 Bullish = 14 Bearish = 28 Most groups are still vulnerable. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .964 .928 .892 .821 .928 .892 BONDFUND .911 .931 .921 .931 .96 .941 EDU .833 .833 .666 .833 .833 .666 HOMEBLDG .764 .705 .705 .647 .764 .705 REIT .729 .682 .641 .601 .662 .567SOLAR .722 .611 .5 .388 .5 .555 BIGBANKS .714 .285 .285 .428 .857 .857 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 BEVERAGE .588 .647 .529 .529 .588 .529 UTILITY .575 .55 .6 .625 .65 .475SOFTWARE .548 .532 .467 .419 .532 .548 SP500 .512 .467 .459 .404 .567 .53 ***** NASD-100 .51 .458 .406 .354 .572 .583 ******** FIDSTKS .502 .448 .437 .394 .594 .545 ============================================================================================== DOWJONES .5 .433 .4 .366 .566 .466 ******** GREEN .5 .5 .454 .5 .545 .545 SP-100 .5 .423 .402 .38 .554 .5 ============================================================================================== RUS-1000 .495 .461 .45 .397 .545 .513 NIFTY .491 .438 .403 .368 .526 .561 INFRA .472 .388 .361 .333 .444 .388 GUNS .47 .529 .529 .47 .647 .47 DJI-13 .461 .384 .307 .23 .615 .538TRANSP .45 .45 .45 .45 .45 .5 INDEXES .448 .367 .286 .259 .567 .513 MILITARY .448 .379 .379 .379 .551 .551 FINANCE .443 .363 .409 .329 .613 .545 GAMING .434 .304 .26 .304 .391 .391HACKERS .428 .333 .333 .285 .476 .523 SEMI .423 .477 .432 .333 .522 .54 ELECTRON .407 .401 .375 .312 .445 .452 COMPUTER .38 .333 .285 .285 .476 .38 REGBANKS .357 .178 .357 .107 .678 .642BIOTECH .341 .341 .3 .273 .393 .379 AUTO .333 .333 .282 .282 .41 .435 OILGAS .333 .326 .304 .226 .354 .283 CHEM .307 .25 .269 .25 .365 .403 COAL .285 .285 .142 .142 .285 .142INDMATER .265 .189 .177 .139 .202 .227 HOSPITAL .26 .304 .347 .26 .391 .391 FOOD .226 .207 .207 .207 .245 .207 COMODITY .225 .2 .2 .2 .25 .2 ETFS .21 .157 .087 .017 .315 .263RETAIL .207 .169 .15 .132 .377 .433 CHINA .135 .135 .135 .101 .135 .152 GOLD .061 .081 .081 .142 .081 .061 N=28
====================================================================
5/15/2019 The Buy B3 and B17 should hold the DJI above 25000. Today the Professionals
turned the market up after a week opening. This morning the DJI will probably
open higher. We probably need to see both a higher opening and then a higher close
to advance the market up past the potential right-shoulder apexes drawn in the charts
shown below. If the DJI can close back above 26000, I would think that 27000 will
be the next target. But there will probably get a new Peerless Sell signal.
Look at the DJI, NASDAQ, SPY, SOXL and TECL charts below. The DJI's
key support is at the round-number 25000. Its resistance is where the flat-65 dma
and the apex of a right-shoulder might be if draw a light-blue line starting at the
first LEFT shoulder peak and making it parallel the green support-line. A close
below the 25000 would bring a dangerous situation and a judged Sell S10.
Presumably it would occur because the US wants to start another ground war
in Asia, this one against Iran or else China has decided to take the offensive
in the current Trade war and Sell lots of its US bonds as a warning. There is
no sign of the second possibility, but starting a war in this the third year of a four-
year Presidential cycle would certainly be reminiscent of 1991 and 1983.
Look at the NASDAQ, SPY, SOXL and TECL charts below. I have tried
to show where theit resistance levels are using estimates of where their "right-
shoulder apexes might be. Their key support levels are not so clear-cut as
the DJI's is. Usually when the blue-chips can no longer hold up, these
other indexes and ETFs sell off badly.
NASDAQ
QQQ
STOCKS
While we wait for an adequate base to be built, I would hold long
the major market ETFs and the big credit card companies. Visa and MasterCard
are sure to make more money as consumers pay higher prices on Chinese
goods.
And let me also suggest LLL, the highest power-ranked military stock making
new highs already in this rebound. LLL has just achieved a breakout that looks
especially good on a weekly chart. One of the things that makes the military
stocks keep rising is that neither Republican or Democrat significantly challenge the
military budget. Rght now, the Democrats want the US to out-arm the
Russians while the Republicans and Trump are more concerned about China.
Charts 5/15/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/15/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-15/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-15/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/15/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.92 1.11 258.44 -53.2% Bullish BLUE .185 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 345.64 2.6 354.13 -201.7% Bearish BLUE-.062 -.191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 285.06 1.66 286.66 -43.3% Bullish BLUE .179 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.09 2.55 184.77 -73.3% Bullish BLUE .193 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.51 1.08 351.17 -80.5% Bullish BLUE .19 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.04 .5 156.19 -87.8% Bullish BLUE .218 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.65 .15 69.33 -127.7% Bullish BLUE .216 .088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.34 -.11 28.18 -666.5% Bullish BLUE .127 -.184 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 151.7 3.63 160.42 -472.9% Bullish BLUE .226 .188 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 143.3 4.17 148.3 -279.5% Bullish BLUE .225 .177 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 103.37 .93 105.34 -106.8% ------- BLUE .045 -.084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.39 -.07 121.2 60.8% ------- RED -.061 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.47 .13 15.72 -110.1% ------- BLUE-.141 -.102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.17 .03 20.74 2.4% ------- BLUE .153 .031Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190515 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 143 NEWLOWS 25 MAXCP 112 MINCP 15 TTTNH 64 TTTNL 23 FASTUP 39 FASTDOWN 169 CPCROSSA 118 CPCROSSD 17 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 12 VHIP21 282 LOWACCUM 149 REDSELL 63 AUGSELS7 6 TRAPDOOR 26Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/15/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .932 .922 .932 .961 .951 .961 INSURANC .928 .892 .821 .928 .892 .892 EDU .833 .666 .833 .833 .666 .666 HOMEBLDG .705 .705 .647 .764 .705 .647 REIT .682 .641 .601 .662 .567 .506 BEVERAGE .647 .529 .529 .588 .529 .529 SOLAR .647 .529 .411 .529 .588 .705 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 UTILITY .55 .6 .625 .65 .5 .45 SOFTWARE .532 .467 .419 .532 .548 .532 GUNS .529 .529 .47 .647 .529 .47 GREEN .478 .434 .478 .521 .565 .565 SEMI .477 .432 .333 .522 .54 .639 SP500 .464 .456 .401 .564 .535 .535 RUS-1000 .461 .45 .396 .546 .521 .512 NASD-100 .458 .406 .354 .572 .583 .635 TRANSP .45 .45 .45 .45 .5 .55 FIDSTKS .448 .437 .394 .594 .551 .551 NIFTY .438 .403 .368 .526 .561 .596 DOWJONES .433 .4 .366 .566 .5 .533 SP-100 .414 .393 .372 .542 .5 .521 ELECTRON .398 .373 .31 .443 .455 .512 INFRA .388 .361 .333 .444 .388 .472 DJI-13 .384 .307 .23 .615 .538 .538 INDEXES .367 .286 .259 .567 .529 .556 MILITARY .366 .366 .366 .533 .566 .566 FINANCE .363 .409 .329 .613 .545 .545 BIOTECH .338 .3 .273 .393 .377 .415 AUTO .333 .282 .282 .41 .435 .512 HACKERS .333 .333 .285 .476 .523 .476 OILGAS .326 .304 .226 .354 .29 .319 COMPUTER .318 .272 .272 .454 .409 .545 GAMING .304 .26 .304 .391 .391 .434 HOSPITAL .304 .347 .26 .391 .347 .391 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .428 .857 .857 .857 COAL .285 .142 .142 .285 .142 .142 CHEM .25 .269 .25 .365 .423 .403 FOOD .203 .203 .203 .24 .203 .24 COMODITY .2 .2 .2 .25 .2 .25 INDMATER .189 .177 .139 .202 .227 .253 REGBANKS .178 .357 .107 .678 .642 .571 RETAIL .169 .15 .132 .377 .452 .452 ETFS .157 .087 .017 .315 .263 .333 CHINA .135 .135 .101 .135 .152 .169 GOLD .081 .081 .142 .081 .061 .102
====================================================================
5/14/2019 The recent Peerless Buys make us expect a recovery from near 25000.
So, do the rising Closing Powers and rising DJI DISI-OBV. But big new
tariffs take money out of American consumers pockets. This acts against
the fiscal stimulus of lower taxes. Let's hope Powell at the Federal Reserve
knows enough not to start talking about the tariffs' inflationary effect and how
he may have to raise interest rates to fight off inflation.
The DJI has held above 25000. But is the heavy selling at the opening over? We
need to see a significantly higher opening and then a still higher close. When
that happens, I think we can expect the DJI to jump back up to 26000 and, after a
little hesitation, move up to a new high near 27000. The recent Buy B17 that
I discussed night actually also saw a Buy B3. You will see from our Peerless
history book (soon to be released) that the Buy B3 also is a reliably Bullish
signal in May and June. The B3 is based on the 20-day Stochastic K-Line reaching
a deeply "oversold" status in certain months of the year.
Few Head and Shoulders Patterns Now.
One of the important technical messages the market is giving us now is that the
SPY does NOT show a bearish head and shoulders top. Look down below and
you will see how common this price formation is just before the SP-500 is about to
decline. That makes me believe that the stock market is fairly safe, even though most
of the leadership is very defensive (PG, HSY, utilities and reits).
I would remain hedged and be short some of our bearish MINCPs. There are more stocks
below their 65-dma than over it. Troublesome now is that many more stock groups
show a majority of their stocks below the 65-dma. This would seem to put a cap on
any rally now. In fact, I would expect a new Peerless Sell on any DJI rally to the Upper
2.4% Band because of the V-Indicator staying in negative territory.
May-June B3s
Date Gain Max.Paper Loss
------------------------------------------------------
19370614 B3 165.5 .123 perfect
19470519 B3 163.6 .13 none
19530609 B3 263.4 .779 2 -.0303 9/14
19740520 B3 812.42 .051 -.0209 5/29
19820607 B3 804.03 .026 -.0191 6/18
20120604 B3 12101.46 .122 none
20160627 B3 17140.24 .069 none
==========================================
Mean = .122 1.3%The Hourly DISI shows volume is much greater on up-hours than down-hours
and shows a very bullish divergence from prices.
The main ETFs' Closing Powers are rising, but the Opening Powers are
have not turned up in a way that would suggest that over-seas' selling has
ended. Bottoms do often occur when oversold Opening Powers turn up
in conjunction with a rising Closing Power. See the importance of SPY head
and shoulders patterns in the charts below. We are fortunate now not to
see such a pattern. If one does develop, attach more weight to it than
a positive Accumulation.
SPY 1990
Head and shoulders here "trump" high Accumulation.
SPY 1994
Head/Shoulders and Falling Closing Power warn of higher interest rates.
SPY 1998
SPY 1999
SPY 2000
SPY 2011
Massive SPY H/S pattern in 2011 warned of Big Decline in that year.
S PY 2015-2016
Massive SPY H/S pattern in 2015 warned of Big Decline in that year
Charts 5/14/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/14/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-14/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-14/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/14/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 255.81 2.34 259.66 -71.8% ------- BLUE .162 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 343.04 5.67 359.75 -201.2% Bearish BLUE-.087 -.198 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 283.4 2.54 287.53 -79.1% ------- BLUE .163 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 180.54 1.96 185.77 -154.8% ------- BLUE .176 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.43 3.34 352.12 -111.1% Bullish BLUE .158 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.54 1.91 156.76 -128.1% Bullish BLUE .188 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.5 1.67 69.4 -166.7% Bullish BLUE .184 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 25.45 .94 28.93 -596.2% ------- BLUE .157 -.156 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.07 9.89 166.34 -702% ------- BLUE .199 .148 (highest) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 139.13 6.43 151.36 -436.7% ------- BLUE .2 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 102.44 1.12 105.59 -152.5% Bearish BLUE .024 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.46 -.21 120.91 51.4% ------- RED -.017 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.34 .5 15.81 -180% Bearish BLUE-.165 -.113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.14 .48 21.16 -4.8% ------- BLUE .155 .041 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190514 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 66 NEWLOWS 21 MAXCP 60 MINCP 15 TTTNH 41 TTTNL 37 FASTUP 34 FASTDOWN 190 CPCROSSA 94 CPCROSSD 37 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 149 REDSELL 65 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 26 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/14/19 Bearish = 36 Bullish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .922 .932 .961 .951 .961 .961 INSURANC .892 .821 .928 .892 .892 .928 HOMEBLDG .705 .647 .764 .705 .647 .764 EDU .666 .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 REIT .641 .601 .662 .567 .506 .554 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .6 UTILITY .6 .625 .65 .5 .45 .625 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .588 .529 .529 .588 GUNS .529 .47 .647 .529 .47 .47 SOLAR .529 .411 .529 .588 .705 .764 N= 10 ============================================================================================ SOFTWARE .467 .419 .532 .548 .548 .516 SP500 .456 .401 .564 .535 .537 .576 RUS-1000 .45 .396 .545 .523 .515 .544 TRANSP .45 .45 .45 .5 .55 .65 FIDSTKS .437 .394 .594 .551 .551 .567 GREEN .434 .478 .521 .565 .565 .565 SEMI .432 .333 .522 .54 .639 .63 FINANCE .409 .329 .613 .545 .545 .613 NASD-100 .406 .354 .572 .583 .635 .635 NIFTY .403 .368 .526 .561 .596 .631 DOWJONES .4 .366 .566 .5 .533 .533 SP-100 .393 .372 .542 .5 .521 .521 ELECTRON .373 .31 .443 .455 .512 .525 MILITARY .366 .366 .533 .566 .566 .533 INFRA .361 .333 .444 .388 .472 .472 REGBANKS .357 .107 .678 .642 .571 .785 HOSPITAL .347 .26 .391 .347 .391 .478 HACKERS .333 .285 .476 .523 .476 .476 DJI-13 .307 .23 .615 .538 .538 .538 OILGAS .304 .226 .354 .29 .326 .276 BIOTECH .297 .273 .393 .377 .418 .428 INDEXES .286 .259 .567 .529 .562 .61 BIGBANKS .285 .428 .857 .857 .857 .857 AUTO .282 .282 .41 .435 .512 .487 COMPUTER .272 .272 .454 .409 .545 .59 CHEM .269 .25 .365 .423 .423 .403 GAMING .26 .304 .391 .391 .434 .434 FOOD .203 .203 .24 .203 .24 .222 COMODITY .2 .2 .25 .2 .25 .225 INDMATER .177 .139 .202 .227 .253 .278 RETAIL .15 .132 .377 .452 .452 .452 COAL .142 .142 .285 .142 .142 .285 CHINA .135 .101 .135 .152 .169 .203 ETFS .087 .017 .315 .263 .333 .385 GOLD .081 .142 .081 .061 .102 .122 N=36
====================================================================
5/13/2019 US Professionals seem to have won the battle with the overseas' Sellers.
. A close back above the briefly broken 26420 neckline would clinch the
new Peerless Buy B17 today. So, no judged Sell S10 has occurred'; prices
should not be so quickly recovering if the S10 was valid..
The Chinese tariffifs' response did come out today. The size of the tariff's retaliation
seems much smaller than it might have been. China's new tariffs amount to $60 billion
and Trump's tariffs will cost US tax-payers $200 billion. Wall Street seems to
like this arithmetic because much higher tariffs on US technology exports might have been
posted. And also bullish, there was no sign from 10-year bond prices or the Dollar
that China will start selling its huge holdings of US debt instruments.
Very positively, Peerless did produce a Buy B17 today despite the 2+% DJI decline.
And now the DJI seems to be rallying upwards over-night, unlike the downward
pattern seen for the last two weeks. It seems that Professionals in the US have
won the battle with overseas' sellers.
A reversal upwards today and a big rise after the opening on big volume would
make it looks like a downside-selling selling climax has been reached. Traders should
buy more DIA, SPY or QQQ. But save a little so that in the next purchase, if there
is one, there will be an upside potential of 10% in your trade.
Seasonality since 1967
Years before Pres. Election Years
Trading Days after 5/13
DJI Pct Gain Probability of DJI Rallying
Five Days 1.0% 56.3%
Ten Days 2.6% 75.0%
Twenty-One Days 2.1% 75.0%
Forty-Two Days 4.2% 75.0%
Sixty Five Days 6.0% 81.3%
Historically Buy B17s reliable. The 1913 study of them shows that they rose 11.1% on
average.
" Buy B17s takes place when the DJI fall is sufficiently below
the 21-day mvg.avg. but still shows a nearly positive or improving
Accumulation Index.
The average gain on the 72 Buy B17s between 1928 and 2013 was 11.1%
here was only one Buy B17 that did not bring at least a gain of 2%.
No losses were produced by this signal. The biggest gains generally
occurred in the Mid-Term Election Year (PE +2). They averaged 14.8%.
October Buy B11s were the most frequent and the most powerful,
averaging 15.1%. The B17s gains from April to July were much smaller."
More details: http://tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/--Buy-B17.htmApril-June Peerless B17s Date Gain Max.Paper Loss19380525 B17 110.6 .307 -.0244 19390629 B17 130.1 .184 none 19490606 B17 165.2 .335 -.0217 19770525 B17 903.24 .033 -.004819790515 B17 825.88 .082 -.0056 19870519 B17 2221.28 .059 -.0024 19990527 B17 10466.92 .048 none 20110608 B17 12048.94 .030 -.0125 20120601 B17 12118.57 .087 -.0014 =========================================================================== Median Gain = 5.9% (N=10) Since 1980 Avg Gain = 4.5% Median Max.Paper Loss= 0.56% Paper Losses of close to 2.5% can occur. More than that would show a dangerous situation. =========================================================================== (Not closed out 20190513 25324.99 .04 (approx. to date)
NASDAQ needs to get back above 65-dma.resistance just below 7800.
Charts 5/13/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/13/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-13/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-13/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/13/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 253.47 -6.45 259.52 -207.4% ------- RED .185 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 337.37 -17.3 357.23 -476.1% Bearish RED -.038 -.208 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 280.86 -7.24 287.93 -207.2% ------- RED .195 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.58 -6.42 186.24 -304.8% ------- RED .193 .051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 342.09 -10.35 353.21 -257.3% Bullish RED .165 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.63 -4.99 157.53 -288.1% Bullish RED .173 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.83 -4.79 69.8 -538.2% Bullish RED .258 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 24.51 -3.08 28.74 -1022% Bearish RED .113 -.216 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 138.18 -22.71 170.43 -1356.1% ------- RED .212 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 132.7 -16.82 151.95 -979.7% ------- RED .212 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 101.32 -3.68 105.63 -354% Bearish RED -.012 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.67 1.24 121.21 76.8% ------- ---- -.069 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 14.84 -.65 15.9 -463.8% Bearish RED -.219 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.66 -.27 21.16 -175.5% Bearish RED .138 .037 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190513 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 94 Still Bullish. NEWLOWS 81 MAXCP 48 MINCP 31 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 86 FASTUP 40 FASTDOWN 228 CPCROSSA 23 CPCROSSD 226 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 310 LOWACCUM 162 REDSELL 59 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 26 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/13/19 Bearish = 38 Bullish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .932 .961 .951 .961 .961 .97 EDU .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 .666 INSURANC .821 .928 .892 .892 .928 1 HOMEBLDG .647 .764 .705 .647 .764 .823 UTILITY .625 .65 .5 .45 .625 .7 REIT .601 .662 .567 .506 .554 .729 JETS .6 .6 .6 .5 .6 .7 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .529 .529 .588 .588 =============================================================================================== GREEN .478 .521 .565 .565 .565 .608 GUNS .47 .647 .529 .47 .47 .705 TRANSP .45 .45 .5 .55 .65 .8 BIGBANKS .428 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 SOFTWARE .419 .532 .548 .548 .516 .645 SOLAR .411 .529 .588 .705 .764 .823 SP500 .401 .564 .535 .537 .584 .686 RUS-1000 .396 .545 .521 .516 .548 .657 FIDSTKS .394 .594 .551 .551 .567 .691 SP-100 .372 .542 .5 .521 .521 .617 NIFTY .368 .526 .561 .596 .631 .771 DOWJONES .366 .566 .5 .533 .533 .6 MILITARY .366 .533 .566 .566 .566 .666 NASD-100 .354 .572 .583 .635 .635 .75 INFRA .333 .444 .388 .472 .472 .527 SEMI .333 .522 .54 .639 .639 .693 FINANCE .329 .613 .545 .545 .613 .738 ELECTRON .31 .443 .455 .512 .525 .594 GAMING .304 .391 .391 .434 .434 .521 HACKERS .285 .476 .523 .476 .476 .666 AUTO .282 .41 .435 .512 .487 .615 COMPUTER .272 .454 .409 .545 .59 .727 BIOTECH .27 .393 .377 .418 .431 .524 INDEXES .263 .569 .532 .564 .618 .666 HOSPITAL .26 .391 .347 .391 .478 .434 CHEM .25 .365 .423 .423 .423 .519 DJI-13 .23 .615 .538 .538 .538 .692 OILGAS .225 .352 .288 .323 .274 .366 FOOD .203 .24 .203 .24 .222 .24 COMODITY .2 .25 .2 .25 .225 .25 COAL .142 .285 .142 .142 .285 .285 GOLD .142 .081 .061 .102 .122 .102 INDMATER .139 .202 .227 .253 .278 .392 RETAIL .132 .377 .452 .452 .452 .509 REGBANKS .107 .678 .642 .571 .785 .964 CHINA .101 .135 .152 .169 .203 .389 ETFS .017 .315 .263 .333 .403 .701
=====================================================================
5/10/2019 I'm not sure that I have ever seen such big swings in different directions first
over-night and then from the opening to the close on the NYSE. I'm pretty
sure these divergent moves will continue until China announces its response
to the Trump tariffs. Any Chinese delay in here is going to make the market
a wild affair. I imagine China will keep the US waiting. So, some of you that
like volatile trading may see how to take advantage of it.
The market wants to see how China retaliates against Trump's 25% tariffs.
At this time, the DJI is down more than 300. A retest of the lower band near
25420 is coming. Trump has asked the Chinese to retaliate quickly, presumably
to remove uncertainty from the stock market to help the biggest exporters
to adjust quickly. The NYSE A/D Line is still very strong. The Hourly DISI
shows a bullish divergence and the Accumulation Indexes for the DJI and the
other major Index and ETFs remain mostly positive.
But the DJI is up a long ways from last year's low. We have gone more
than 10 years without a DJI drop of more than 20%. Continue to hedge
with some of our Bearish MINCPs and hold only a small (partial) position
because of the Buy B2 in DIA or SPY. Avoid the tech stocks for now.
A close below 25400 would force us to issue a judged Sell S10. The size
of the overseas selling before the opening could continue for a long time.
That forces American Professionals to keep supporting the market during
the hours when the NYSE us open. That has the effect of boosting the
leading ETFs made Closing Power to new highs. Ordinarily, that
would make me quite bullish. But how long will American Professionals
play this role?
So far, most American Professionals on Wall Street, do not believe that China's
retaliation against American tariffs will matter much. I subscribe to that view myself
But we could be wrong. Too many Trump supporters on Wall Street and elsewhere
feel that the big man can do no wrong. The rest of world is more doubtful. And it is
the rest of the World that is now very unsettled about Trade Wars, American
Constitutional dangers and the threat of recession where they live. We will probably need
to see some higher openings to signify that the overseas' selling is ending.
Weak Openings Are "Stress-Testing" American Professionals
Right now Public-Overseas Selling is Very High. Will the Professionals
be able to Hold Up the Market, or will they suddenly switch to the
bearish camp. Watch the DJI's support at 24000. That is likely to
be the key point which will decide what the Professionals will do.
DIA
SPY
QQQ
So far, the US Dollar is very strong and interest rates are low. But Trump can
certainly do wrong, the Constitutional crisis could certainly get much worse
and China and Russia could start dumping US bonds and demand payment in
othr currencies. We can't put our head in the sand. Treat a decline below 25400
as a judged Sell S10.
25420 Is Key Support
Thursdays' Buy B2 has been a weak signal since 2000. In this period, there have
only been three cases in May or June. Their average gain of 3.1% is only slightly
above the average maximum drawdown. That is the main reason that I suggested
waiting for the DJI to re-test its lower band before taking a limited position
in DIA and SPY. Waiting to see what China does in retaliation is the second reason
for waiting. Wanting to get some head-room before buying was the third reason for
recommending patience or even hedging with some Bearish MINCPs.
Buy B2 - Tests of Lower Band - May - June: 2000-2019
.
1 20000505 B2 10577.86 .038 10299.2 -.0263 biggest
2 20100520 B2 10068.01 .034 9816.49 -.0249
3==>20110603 B2 12151.26 .022 11897.2 -.0209
===== =====
20190509 B2 25967.73
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Avg= +3.1% (N=24) Avg.= 2.40%
V-Formations Have Bullishly Brought Many More New Highs,
75% of the Time. But in 2002, A V-Formation Became A Bear Market.
Three of the DJI most comparable V-formations, 1941-1942, 1949-1950, 1971-1972
V-formations made new highs after only a limited hesitation or a month or two, at the old
highs. There was one that did not. That was after the DJI rally up from the 2001 attack
on the World Trade Center. In that case, the DJI we had sell signals and the NYSE A/D
Line slid lower and lower after breaking its uptrend-line.
Might the DJI fall back and have to re-test its lows, about 18% down from the peak.
The V-formation suggests that there is a 25% chance of that. But looking back to 1950,
we see not case where the DJI enters an 18% wide trading range. The widest such trading
trading ranges have been are about 10%, as in 1956, 1986 and 2000 and many were much
less.
So, without a Peerless Sell signal, I would think the DJI will not drop much below its
lower band, which also get support from the fact that the 200-day ma also crosses there.
But I would not be stubborn. A DJI close 100-points, or so, below its neckline support
would force me to judge a Sell S10 in what would then appear to be a rare "hands above
the bead" pattern. See this in the chart below.
In May 2002 Low Interest Rates, a Strong A/D Line
and a DJI V-Formation all turned into a Bear Market.
after a Judged S10 and a break in an extended A/D Line.
Charts 5/10/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/10/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-10/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-10/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/10/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 259.92 1.48 264.27 -96.6% ------- BLUE .235 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.67 .54 371.6 -299.4% ------- BLUE .069 -.196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.1 1.44 292.82 -102.3% Bullish BLUE .245 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185 .23 189.94 -162.9% ------- BLUE .261 .066 --------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------ MDY 352.44 1.27 360.3 -120.7% Bullish BLUE .224 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.62 .43 160.71 -123.5% Bullish BLUE .215 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.62 1.29 73.42 -258.2% Bullish BLUE .295 .119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27.59 -.59 30.39 -582.3% Bullish RED .155 -.134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 160.89 .47 183.85 -928.1% ------- BLUE .272 .267 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 149.52 1.22 162.63 -539.3% Bullish BLUE .286 .218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105 -.34 108.83 -136.4% ------- BLUE -.019 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.43 .23 120.81 32.2% Bullish ---- -.164 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.49 -.23 16.31 -265.4% Bearish RED -.187 -.097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.15 -.01 26.18 -1.9% Bearish ---- .19 .137 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.93 .19 21.4 -148.6% Bearish ---- .129 .023 TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190510 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 128 NEWLOWS 32 MAXCP 98 MINCP 18 TTTNH 35 TTTNL 56 FASTUP 47 FASTDOWN 175 CPCROSSA 198 CPCROSSD 111 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 13 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 10 HIUPPCT 12 LOWACCUM 153 REDSELL 60 AUGSELS7 9 TRAPDOOR 25 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/10/19 Bullish = 26 Bearish = 19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .951 .961 .961 .97 .97 INSURANC .928 .892 .892 .928 1 .928 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 EDU .833 .666 .666 .666 .666 1 HOMEBLDG .764 .705 .647 .764 .823 .882REGBANKS .678 .642 .571 .785 .964 .928 REIT .662 .567 .506 .554 .729 .729 UTILITY .65 .5 .45 .625 .7 .775 GUNS .647 .529 .47 .47 .705 .705 DJI-13 .615 .538 .538 .538 .692 .692FINANCE .613 .545 .545 .613 .727 .738 JETS .6 .6 .5 .6 .7 .9 FIDSTKS .594 .551 .551 .567 .691 .718 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .588 .588 .647 NASD-100 .572 .583 .635 .635 .75 .781INDEXES .569 .532 .564 .618 .666 .629 DOWJONES .566 .5 .533 .533 .6 .7 SP500 .564 .535 .537 .584 .686 .733 RUS-1000 .545 .521 .515 .549 .66 .689 SP-100 .542 .5 .521 .521 .617 .659MILITARY .533 .566 .566 .566 .7 .7 SOFTWARE .532 .548 .548 .516 .645 .645 SOLAR .529 .588 .705 .764 .823 .882 NIFTY .526 .561 .596 .631 .754 .771 SEMI .522 .54 .639 .639 .702 .756GREEN .521 .565 .565 .565 .608 .695 ================================================================================================ HACKERS .476 .523 .476 .476 .666 .666 COMPUTER .454 .409 .545 .59 .727 .772 TRANSP .45 .5 .55 .65 .8 .8 INFRA .444 .388 .472 .472 .527 .583 ELECTRON .443 .455 .512 .525 .594 .632AUTO .41 .435 .512 .487 .615 .666 GAMING .391 .391 .434 .434 .521 .521 HOSPITAL .391 .347 .391 .478 .434 .391 BIOTECH .39 .377 .418 .431 .521 .494 RETAIL .377 .452 .452 .452 .528 .566CHEM .365 .423 .423 .423 .538 .519 OILGAS .352 .288 .323 .274 .366 .38 ETFS .315 .263 .333 .403 .701 .789 COAL .285 .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 COMODITY .25 .2 .25 .225 .25 .3FOOD .24 .203 .24 .222 .24 .314 INDMATER .202 .227 .253 .278 .392 .405 CHINA .135 .152 .169 .203 .406 .627 GOLD .081 .061 .102 .122 .102 .081
=======================================================================
5/9/2019 Today brought a new Buy B2. The DJI today came close enough to the lower
3.5% band for this signal. As expected Pres. Trump has imposed a 20% tariff
on a wide range of Chinese imports. This will boost Americans' credit card usage
quite royally. If you are looking for what to buy given the Buy signal, consider
the credit card companies, MA and Visa. I would expect China to retaliate very
quickly on American tech stocks, like AAPL, ADBE .... MSFT. Traders may
wait to see the selling from the Chinese reaction before buying. A further
two percent DJI decline should not come as a surprise. More than 3% would be
more than any previous May or June Buy B2 and would call for extreme caution.
In Mays and Junes, there have been 24 Buy B2s since 1929. These have averaged
+7.8% at time of next Peerless sell. But in the last thirty or so years, the gains are much
smaller. See the table below the DJI charts. Most likely, the next rally back up to the
recent highs, will produce a Sell, especially since Summer S9Vs are fairly common.
Buy a litttle in here, but let's wait a little longer to buy DIA or SPY. The pattern has
been for there to be an emotionally-based Monday sell-off and a Tuesday turn-around.
Dow Jones changes tonight: D-J is now not reporting the hourly DJI's highs and lows
and volume. In addition, they stopped providing NHs and NLs. Fortunately, these can be
easily computed by simply adding up the individual DJI highs and lows and multiplying the
sum by the ratio of the reported DJI close to the sum of the individual DJI-30 stocks.
May and June Buy B2s since 1929Date Signal DJI Gain Max. Paper Loss 1 19290527 B2 293.4 .069 perfect 0 2 19300507 B2 263.7 .043 none 0 3===>19350531 B2 110.64 .198 none 0 (PE-1) ==== 4 19360506 B2 149.7 .265 146.9 -.0187 5 19380502 B2 110.1 .071 perfect 0 6===>19390628 B2 132.8 .16 130.1 -.0203 ==== 7 19460506 B2 200.7 .059 none 0 8===>19510628 B2 244.0 .127 242.6 -.0057 ==== 9 19520501 B2 256.4 .06 perfect 0 10 19720502 B2 935.2 .032 925.12 -.0107 11==>19750529 B2 815.06 .061 none 0 12 19760607 B2 958.09 .052 perfect 0 13 19780623 B2 823.02 .103 812.28 -.013 14 19810504 B2 973.34 .04 963.44 -.0101 15 19860507 B2 1775.3 .049 1758.18 -.0096 16 19880519 B2 1958.72 .115 1952.59 -.0031 17==>19910624 B2 2913.01 .033 2898.03 -.0051 ===== 18 19940624 B2 3636.94 .068 3624.96 -.0032 19 19960507 B2 5420.95 .06 none 0 20 19980615 B2 8627.93 .049 perfect 0 21==>19990611 B2 10490.51 .046 none 0 ===== 22 20000505 B2 10577.86 .038 10299.2 -.0263 biggest 23 20100520 B2 10068.01 .034 9816.49 -.0249 24==>20110603 B2 12151.26 .022 11897.2 -.0209 ===== ----------------------------------------------------------------- 20190509 B2 25967.73 Avg= +7.8% (N=24) But since 1990, the avg. B2 gains only +4.9% (n=8) and since 2000, the avg. B2 gains only +3.2% (n=3) In the third year in Presidential Election Years since 1991, the avg. gain = 3.6% The good news is the biggest paper loss in any of these B2s was 2.6% but unfortunately, the last three Buy B2s each brought losses of 2.1% to 2.6%
Charts 5/9/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/9/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-09/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-09/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/9/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 258.44 -1.22 264.97 -84.6% ------- BLUE .184 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.13 -5.62 376.46 -294.3% Bearish RED .013 -.181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 286.66 -.87 294.03 -77.7% ------- BLUE .227 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 184.77 -1 191.11 -88.7% ------- BLUE .251 .07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 351.17 -.95 361.02 -65.4% Bullish BLUE .228 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.19 -.57 160.53 -41.9% Bullish BLUE .207 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.33 -.07 74.3 -229.5% Bullish BLUE .298 .106 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.18 -.75 31.02 -321.8% Bullish BLUE .159 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 160.42 -5.92 193.35 -806% ------- BLUE .26 .274 ^^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 148.3 -3.06 166.36 -424.7% ------- BLUE .276 .206 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.34 -.25 107.91 -30% Bearish BLUE -.061 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.2 .29 120.65 52.2% Bullish BLUE -.136 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.72 -.09 16.34 -96.4% Bearish ---- -.202 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.74 -.42 21.56 -138.4% Bullish RED .106 .013 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-09 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 85 NEWLOWS 41 MAXCP 58 MINCP 23 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 47 FASTUP 74 FASTDOWN 89 CPCROSSA 102 CPCROSSD 65 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 20 ACCUMVER 7 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 11 LOWACCUM 159 REDSELL 56 AUGSELS7 8 TRAPDOOR 24 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/9/19 Bullish = 24 Bearish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .961 .961 .97 .97 .951 INSURANC .892 .892 .928 1 .928 .892 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 HOMEBLDG .705 .647 .764 .823 .882 .823 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 1 .666REGBANKS .642 .571 .785 .964 .928 .678 JETS .6 .5 .6 .7 .8 .8 SOLAR .588 .705 .764 .823 .882 .823 NASD-100 .583 .635 .635 .75 .791 .729 ^^^^^ REIT .567 .506 .554 .729 .729 .628MILITARY .566 .566 .566 .7 .666 .533 GREEN .565 .565 .565 .608 .695 .608 NIFTY .561 .596 .631 .754 .807 .754 FIDSTKS .551 .551 .567 .691 .718 .659 SOFTWARE .548 .548 .516 .645 .661 .612FINANCE .545 .545 .613 .727 .738 .659 SEMI .54 .639 .639 .702 .756 .747 DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .692 .692 .615 SP500 .535 .537 .584 .686 .735 .672 ^^^^^^ INDEXES .532 .564 .618 .666 .629 .623BEVERAGE .529 .529 .588 .588 .647 .588 GUNS .529 .47 .47 .705 .705 .588 HACKERS .523 .476 .476 .666 .714 .714 RUS-1000 .521 .515 .548 .661 .688 .627 ============================================================================================= DOWJONES .5 .533 .533 .6 .7 .566 ^^^^^^ SP-100 .5 .521 .521 .617 .659 .574 UTILITY .5 .45 .625 .7 .775 .725 TRANSP .5 .55 .65 .8 .8 .7 ============================================================================================= ELECTRON .455 .512 .525 .594 .632 .575 RETAIL .452 .452 .452 .528 .566 .566 AUTO .435 .512 .487 .615 .666 .615 CHEM .423 .423 .423 .538 .538 .442 COMPUTER .409 .545 .59 .727 .772 .772GAMING .391 .434 .434 .521 .521 .565 INFRA .388 .472 .472 .527 .583 .472 BIOTECH .374 .418 .431 .521 .494 .418 HOSPITAL .347 .391 .478 .434 .347 .304 OILGAS .288 .323 .274 .366 .38 .309ETFS .263 .333 .403 .701 .789 .736 INDMATER .227 .253 .278 .392 .405 .278 FOOD .203 .24 .222 .24 .296 .24 COMODITY .2 .25 .225 .25 .3 .225 CHINA .152 .169 .203 .406 .61 .525COAL .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .061 .102 .122 .102 .081 .061
==========================================================================
5/8/2019 Read, please, what I wrote last night. The selling from overseas is continuing
again this morning before the opening. The DJI's 65-dma is being violated
as I write this. Short-term, I would not let the absence of an official
Peerless Sell signal fool you into buying yet. The tariff war with China will
go to the next level. I do not think we should expect sovereign China to give
way to Trump's very public threats. That should bring a selling climax.
But 25% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% Chinese tariffs on American electronics
and agricultural goods will not cause a bear market. True, American consumers will
be taxed more by their own government. But some American industries will be helped. Others, especially retailers will be hurt.
Our internal strength indicators are holding up quite well. The DJI is much weaker
than SPY or QQQ. So, I suspect the market's panic - which may develop this
weekend because of the new tariffs - will be short-lived. Perhaps, by Tuesday
next week we will get a good opportunity to buy, one where there is 10% head-room
back up to resistance. Very likely, Peerless will tell us when to buy with a new signal
. Let's wait for that signal, at the very least.
Charts 5/8/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/8/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-08/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-08/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/8/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 259.66 .14 262.88 -85.3% Bearish BLUE .116 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 359.75 2.52 375.8 -229.4% Bearish BLUE -.05 -.154 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 287.53 -.4 291.18 -73.4% ------- ---- .179 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.77 -.47 188.11 -83.7% ------- BLUE .197 .073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 352.12 -1.09 355.83 -39.6% Bullish RED .16 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.76 -.77 157.52 -.9% Bullish RED .133 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.4 -.4 72.63 -212.3% ------- BLUE .238 .112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.93 .19 30.1 -93.5% ------- BLUE .099 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 166.34 -4.09 189.55 -464.4% ------- RED .204 .273 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 151.36 -.59 161.79 -409.1% ------- BLUE .217 .225 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.59 -.04 105.98 1.4% Bearish BLUE -.113 -.058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.91 -.3 119.94 21.1% Bullish RED -.142 -.034 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.81 -.09 16.03 -102.2% Bearish RED -.236 -.08 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.16 0 21.33 -35.1% Bullish ---- .117 .023 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-08 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 77 NEWLOWS 34 MAXCP 32 MINCP 23 TTTNH 31 TTTNL 33 FASTUP 60 FASTDOWN 80 CPCROSSA 55 CPCROSSD 130 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 14 HIGHIP21 5 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 343 LOWACCUM 150 REDSELL 63 AUGSELS7 9 TRAPDOOR 19 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/8/19 Bullish = 27 Bearish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .961 .97 .97 .961 .97 INSURANC .892 .928 1 .928 .892 .892 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 SOLAR .705 .764 .823 .882 .823 .823 EDU .666 .666 .666 1 .666 .666 HOMEBLDG .647 .764 .823 .882 .823 .882 SEMI .639 .639 .702 .756 .747 .711 NASD-100 .635 .635 .75 .791 .729 .729 ^^^^^ NIFTY .596 .631 .754 .807 .754 .736 REGBANKS .571 .785 .964 .928 .678 .5 MILITARY .566 .566 .7 .666 .533 .566 GREEN .565 .565 .608 .695 .608 .565 INDEXES .564 .618 .666 .629 .623 .623 FIDSTKS .551 .567 .691 .718 .659 .686 TRANSP .55 .65 .8 .8 .7 .7 SOFTWARE .548 .516 .645 .661 .612 .629 COMPUTER .545 .59 .727 .772 .772 .636 FINANCE .545 .613 .727 .738 .659 .647 DJI-13 .538 .538 .692 .692 .615 .692 SP500 .537 .584 .686 .735 .676 .69 ^^^^^ DOWJONES .533 .533 .6 .7 .566 .666 ^^^^^ BEVERAGE .529 .588 .588 .647 .588 .647 SP-100 .521 .521 .617 .659 .574 .617 ^^^^^ RUS-1000 .515 .548 .66 .689 .632 .626 AUTO .512 .487 .615 .666 .615 .589 ELECTRON .512 .525 .594 .632 .575 .563 REIT .506 .554 .729 .729 .635 .621 ================================================================================================ JETS .5 .6 .7 .8 .8 .8 ================================================================================================ HACKERS .476 .476 .666 .714 .714 .714 INFRA .472 .472 .527 .583 .472 .527 GUNS .47 .47 .705 .705 .588 .647 RETAIL .452 .452 .528 .566 .566 .509 UTILITY .45 .625 .7 .775 .725 .725 GAMING .434 .434 .521 .521 .565 .521 CHEM .423 .423 .538 .538 .461 .461 BIOTECH .416 .432 .523 .495 .427 .4 HOSPITAL .391 .478 .434 .347 .304 .304 ETFS .333 .403 .701 .789 .736 .771 OILGAS .323 .274 .366 .38 .316 .366 INDMATER .253 .278 .392 .405 .278 .303 COMODITY .25 .225 .25 .3 .225 .275 FOOD .245 .226 .245 .301 .245 .301 CHINA .169 .203 .406 .61 .525 .61 COAL .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .102 .122 .102 .081 .061 .102
======================================================================
5/7/2019 Profit-taking? Professsionals dismiss the current decline as nothing more.
At least, that is what the strength in the Closing Powers show. But could they
be wrong this time? Surely, we need to see some signs that the selling from
over-seas is ending. Fear of a trade war brought a 10% sell-off in January
2018. Is the market safer now?
The DJI broke its recent trading pattern's low. This can be construed to be a
minor Head/Shoulders top much like last October's I'm glad we sold out our
major market ETFS (DIA, SPY and QQQ) because a retreat was expected
back from the old highs' resistance. Note today that the QQQ today failed
its recent breakouts. Now we see bearish head/shoulders tops forming in
such key stocks as NVDA, IBM, CAT and in Crude Oil. I would judge
Peerless still to be on a Buy but the minor H/S pattern, the distribution at the
old highs and today's big sell-off makes it look like 25000 on the DJI will be
reached. Watch high-priced BA in the DJI-30. This made a new low and
is now below its 65-dma.
The DJI's plunge of 1.7% today brought trading losses to those who bought
on weakness Monday. That will make Professionals and day traders extra
cautious now. Usually when there is no Sell signal, the DJI builds a base at its
rising 65-dma and recovers and goes back to, at least, its recent highs. But
today we got no Buy B11because of the size of the drop.
So, it's not safe to buy yet. I think we should wait for a new Peerless Buy signal,
although a late recovery back above 26000 would probably set up a rally perhaps
to 26500. My sense is traders will be safest now waiting, at a minimum, until there
is 10% upside potential back up to the recent highs that will act as ceilings.
The danger, of course, now is that if the DJI's 65-dma is broken then that will
unleash a whole new wave of selling and leveraged short selling of ETFs.
It's not hard to imagine what fears might we whipped up in the Press tomorrow.
Trump's personal loss of $2 billion in the 1980s and 1990s was the highest of
an American taxpayer. We can see why he wants to conceal his taxes. It
certainly makes me wonder about the risks he is taking with the US economy
as he threatens a trade war with China or threatens a Constitutional crisis
with Congress.
Peerless has never needed a Sell Signal based solely on a sudden, unexpected big selling
wave (DJI drop of 1.7% in a single day) right after a new DJI high was made, but times
change and this may be the "new normal" as institutions try to squeeze every penny out
of a rally backed by good economic news now that they believe that they can quickly
sell, hedge or go short using the many new leveraged shorting vehicles now available
which are also very liquid.
SPY
QQQ
Charts 5/7/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
5/7/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-07/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-07/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/7/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 259.52 -4.75 264.15 -118.6% Bearish RED .168 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 357.23 -14.37 376.8 -272.3% Bearish RED -.112 -.158 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 287.93 -4.89 291.81 -104% ------- RED .248 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 186.24 -3.7 188.93 -87.1% ------- RED .247 .079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 353.21 -7.09 354.95 -82.2% Bullish RED .233 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.53 -3.18 156.79 -23.9% Bullish RED .185 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.8 -3.62 72.48 -295% ------- RED .3 .116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.74 -1.65 29.49 -344.1% ------- RED .094 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 170.43 -13.42 183.44 -469.5% ------- RED .269 .279 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 151.95 -10.68 164.57 -422.6% ------- RED .284 .239 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.63 -3.2 105.56 -36.9% Bearish RED -.099 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 15.9 -.41 16.14 -236.2% Bearish RED -.213 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.16 -.24 21.31 -88.7% Bullish RED .158 .026 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-07 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 74 NEWLOWS 31 MAXCP 24 MINCP 14 TTTNH 25 TTTNL 45 FASTUP 60 FASTDOWN 89 CPCROSSA 25 CPCROSSD 272 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 20 ACCUMVER 24 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 13 LOWACCUM 165 REDSELL 52 AUGSELS7 10 TRAPDOOR 17 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/7/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .97 .961 .97 .932 INSURANC .928 1 .928 .892 .892 .892 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 REGBANKS .785 .964 .928 .678 .5 .785 HOMEBLDG .764 .823 .882 .823 .941 .941 SOLAR .764 .823 .882 .823 .823 .823 EDU .666 .666 1 .666 .666 .666 TRANSP .65 .8 .8 .7 .7 .8 SEMI .639 .702 .756 .747 .711 .747 NASD-100 .635 .75 .791 .729 .729 .781 ^^^^^ NIFTY .631 .754 .807 .754 .736 .771 UTILITY .625 .7 .775 .725 .725 .8 INDEXES .618 .666 .629 .623 .629 .639 FINANCE .613 .727 .738 .659 .647 .681 JETS .6 .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 COMPUTER .59 .727 .772 .772 .681 .727 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .647 .588 .647 .764 SP500 .584 .686 .735 .676 .698 .771 ^^^^^ FIDSTKS .567 .691 .718 .659 .691 .745 MILITARY .566 .7 .666 .533 .566 .633 GREEN .565 .608 .695 .608 .565 .695 REIT .554 .729 .729 .635 .628 .648 RUS-1000 .548 .66 .688 .634 .631 .706 DJI-13 .538 .692 .692 .615 .692 .692 DOWJONES .533 .6 .7 .566 .666 .733 ^^^^^ ELECTRON .522 .598 .63 .579 .56 .592 SP-100 .521 .617 .659 .574 .617 .702 SOFTWARE .516 .645 .661 .612 .629 .693 N=29 ============================================================================================ AUTO .487 .615 .666 .615 .589 .717 HOSPITAL .478 .434 .347 .304 .304 .347 HACKERS .476 .666 .714 .714 .714 .714 INFRA .472 .527 .583 .472 .527 .611 GUNS .47 .705 .705 .588 .647 .588 RETAIL .452 .528 .566 .566 .509 .566 GAMING .434 .521 .521 .565 .521 .521 BIOTECH .428 .521 .494 .426 .407 .456 CHEM .423 .538 .538 .461 .5 .557 ETFS .403 .701 .789 .736 .771 .807 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 INDMATER .278 .392 .405 .278 .303 .43 OILGAS .274 .366 .38 .316 .373 .5 FOOD .226 .245 .301 .245 .301 .32 COMODITY .225 .25 .3 .225 .275 .325 CHINA .203 .406 .61 .525 .61 .661 N=16 GOLD .122 .102 .081 .061 .102 .122
=======================================================================
5/6/2019 Peerless remains on the series of Buys shown in the Peerless chart. The Closing
Powers are rising. The NYSE A/D Line uptrend remains pointed upwards.
But the DJI, SP-500 and NYSE have stalled below their previous highs. Only
the QQQ and SOXL, among major ETFs, have made clear new highs. But
they are pulling back and I have suggested locking in profits before too much
weakness hits them. The heavy overseas selling we saw before the opening
Monday seems to a problem again this morning. Let's wait until we get a new
Buy B11 from Peerless to retake our long positions. This seems likely to occur if the
DJI aproaches the rising 65-dma (25951) at the close.
The breadth today was negative, but far from being the reciprocal of Friday's
numbers. So, there was no "simple Sell S6" today, as discussed last night. Instead the
DJI and the other major market ETFs - in a most controlled and coordinated way - staged a steady 400+ point recovery up from the opening. Did you notice that
today's DJI opening was down almost exactly 2% from Firday's close and
was exactly at the support of the rising 65-dma. This has all the markings of a
highly controlled lower opening and well-staged recovery. See below how it brought
our Closing Powers for DIA, SPY, QQQ, SOXL and IWM all to new 12-month
highs. This strength and the high levels of IP21 show the market is still in strong
Professional hands and Professionals still believe that more new prices will be made
after this pullback, possibly to 25000 on the DJI..
At the same time, we see persistent and heavy selling from overseas again this
morning. The American Professionals believe that they can keep the US markets
in an upswing, but investors elsewhere are locking in their profits in US stocks,
as we have. As long as the DJI stays above its rising 65-dma, the bullish rising Closing
Power and Professional buying will protect the markets here from early weakness.
But I suspect a DJI drop below the 65-dma will cause the US Professionals to
withdraw their support of the US markets for a few weeks.
If you are a trader, you should probably wait for another successful test of 26000
to buy DIA, SPY and QQQ. This may produce a new Buy B11. However, a close
below 26000 will be problematic and risky, because the support there will become
resistance if the DJI then re-tests 25000.
Buy B11 - Tests of rising 65-dma - March - July
Date Gain Max. Paper Loss
------------ ------ ------------------
19440413 + .191 -.020 4/24
19450321 + .056 -.001 3/23
19450705 + .212 -.021 7/27
PEY-1 ==> 19590608 + .046 -.006 6/9
19610726 + .031 none
19780725 + .081 none
19850315 + .464 -.004 5/1
19860516 +.058 -.001 5/19
19920327 +.038 -.016 4/8
19930423 +.162 -.005 4/26
19930702 +.139 -.010 7/6
20060417 +.046 none 0
20120726 +.054 none 0
20160520 +.047 -.021 5/20
----------------------------------------------
Median Gain = +.056 Median Loss = .006
Presidential Posturing?
Trump's tough talk to China about trade is probably negotiating posturing. He knows
the failure of the talks and a renewed trade war where the levies start at 25% would
hurt the stock market and this would hurt his chances of re-election. Wall Street
Professionals sense this and do not want to precipitate another big sell-off. The
Chinese
may not respond well to Trump's threats. That is the risk.
Charts 5/6/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 5/6/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-06/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-06/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/6/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.27 -.7 265.79 -22.1% ------- BLUE .204 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 371.6 -4.86 377.69 -98.8% Bearish BLUE -.098 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 292.82 -1.21 294.02 -17.9% ------- BLUE .324 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 189.94 -1.17 189.54 -28.5% ------- BLUE .308 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 360.3 -.72 359.1 7.5% Bullish BLUE .299 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 160.71 .18 158.29 53% Bullish BLUE .256 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.42 -.88 74.13 17.7% ------- BLUE .345 .157 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.39 -.63 30.83 -129.4% ------- BLUE .021 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 183.85 -9.5 188.05 -3.2% ------- BLUE .329 .393 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 162.63 -3.73 165.83 -66.8% Bullish BLUE .342 .325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.83 .92 106.42 71.3% Bearish BLUE -.04 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.81 .16 121.2 -.8% Bullish BLUE -.131 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.31 -.03 16.67 -273.1% ------- BLUE -.167 -.073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.4 -.16 21.54 -32.6% Bullish BLUE .216 .017 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-06 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 289 Bullish NEWLOWS 11 MAXCP 71 MINCP 13 TTTNH 41 TTTNL 17 FASTUP 63 FASTDOWN 75 CPCROSSA 251 CPCROSSD 24 BIGVOLUP 8 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 22 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 15 LOWACCUM 155 REDSELL 52 AUGSELS7 12 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/6/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC 1 .928 .892 .892 .892 .892 BONDFUND .97 .97 .961 .97 .951 .912 REGBANKS .964 .928 .678 .5 .785 .857 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 HOMEBLDG .823 .882 .823 .941 .941 .882 SOLAR .823 .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 TRANSP .8 .8 .7 .7 .8 .8 NIFTY .754 .807 .754 .736 .771 .754 NASD-100 .75 .791 .729 .729 .781 .739 REIT .729 .729 .635 .628 .648 .594 COMPUTER .727 .772 .772 .681 .772 .772 FINANCE .727 .738 .659 .647 .681 .715 GUNS .705 .705 .588 .647 .588 .647 SEMI .702 .756 .747 .711 .747 .756 ETFS .701 .789 .736 .771 .807 .789 JETS .7 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 MILITARY .7 .666 .533 .566 .6 .566 UTILITY .7 .775 .725 .725 .8 .725 DJI-13 .692 .692 .615 .692 .692 .692 FIDSTKS .691 .718 .659 .691 .751 .756 SP500 .686 .735 .676 .698 .771 .749 EDU .666 1 .666 .666 .666 .833 HACKERS .666 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 INDEXES .666 .629 .623 .629 .639 .666 RUS-1000 .66 .688 .632 .632 .708 .696 SOFTWARE .645 .661 .612 .629 .693 .661 SP-100 .617 .659 .574 .617 .702 .67 GREEN .608 .695 .608 .565 .695 .652 DOWJONES .6 .7 .566 .666 .733 .7 ELECTRON .594 .632 .575 .563 .594 .607 BEVERAGE .588 .647 .588 .647 .764 .764 CHEM .538 .538 .461 .5 .576 .538 RETAIL .528 .566 .566 .509 .566 .584 INFRA .527 .583 .472 .527 .611 .666 GAMING .521 .521 .565 .521 .521 .521 BIOTECH .519 .494 .426 .407 .464 .491 ============================================================================================= AUTO .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 1 ============================================================================================= HOSPITAL .434 .347 .304 .304 .347 .304 CHINA .406 .61 .525 .61 .661 .644 OILGAS .366 .38 .316 .373 .5 .584 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 COMODITY .25 .3 .225 .275 .325 .35 INDMATER .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 .25 FOOD .24 .296 .24 .296 .314 .333 GOLD .102 .081 .061 .102 .122 .142 |
=============================================================================
5/3/2019 Officially Peerless remains on multiple Buys. But
if there are 3.5 times more
decliners than advancers tomorrow at the close, I would suggest judging the active signal
to
be a new "Simple Sell S6" as long as the DJI stays below its rising 65-dma.
Let me explain. Friday's good Job's
report sent the DJI up 197 and the ratio of NYSE
advances to declines was a quite bullish 2283 to 654. Usually, we would expect
some follow-through to the upside after such a nice rally. But every now and then,
a very positive advance like this turns into a trap and there is an equally sharp drop the
next trading day. This turns out to be reliably bearish and very often a sign that a
bear
market is developing. It happened repeatedly, for example, in 1931 and 2008.
That
is why we have Sell S6s when the ratio of advances to declines is above 5:1 on the
up-day and similarly weak on the next trading day.
As I say, in the past these have invariably been bearish and signs of a dangerous
market, one where big-money is in so much hurry to get out that they do not
even wait for a follow-through on the second day's advance and immediately and heavily
sell on the second day. Tomorrow (Monday) could be such a bearish second day.
If the ratio of declines to advances is 2383 to 654 and more than exactly reverse Friday's
breadth.
At this writing the DJI is down 480, ostensibly because President Trump has threatened
China with 25% tariffs. But it may also be because Trump is getting a lot of
"No's"
recently and some of us are not very confident he can handle it psychologically.
Mueller will testify to the House later this week against his wishes. Powell is
ignoring
his urgings of a lowering of rates. Venezuela is not taking up arms against its
elected
President as Trump wants. And China may say "no" to a trade deal.
But I'm no psychologist. Let's just consider what the market itself says.
Consider the cases in the past when from May to December since 1929 there was a
strong single up-day with 2280 or more up on the New York Stock Exchange and
on the next there were 650 or more down. There have been 23 such cases. If we
made
all these cases into a new type of Sell S6, our history would show the average gain
selling short would be 6.9% if we later covered on the next Peerless Buy signal. 19
of 23
instances would have been profitable points to sell short. In only one case, at the
end of
World War II, a "Simple Sell S6" would have brought a large loss selling
short. In that
case, one would have been well-served to be an immediate-buyer when the DJI came back
above its 65-dma. That seems like a reasonable approach to take now if breadth is
very bad
tomorrow and if you want to be aggressive.
The 65-dma separated bullish from bearish momentum in 1945.
I show this chart because of the falsely bearish New Simple Sell S6 there.
See how a false decline below that moving average then set up the
very solid breakout above 170 to new highs.
Officially, I have suggested already taking profits in DIA and SPY. If QQQ fails to
stay above its 65-dma, we would have to sell it. But since its Closing Power uptrend
has already been broken, that support may not hold and we might just want to sell
if there is no recovery soon after the opening. 187.4 should act as support.
If not,
sell it.
As for selling short, use our MINCPs for now until we see what happens tomorrow
and I can do more work on the "New Sell S6" and the role that the 65-dma should
play in using it to sell short.
New Simple Sell S6 Resulting Gain Going Short Using Peerless Good Breadth Day Followed By Equally Bad Breadth Day May-December 1929-2019 ---------------------------------------------------- Date Gain ----------------------------------------------------- 7/22/31 .020 8/17/31 .295 9/24/31 .079 10/17/32 -.027 11/31/37 .131 9/22/38 .146 8/16/39 .041 5/28/40 voided by simultaneous B16 7/30/43 .041 7/26/45 -.068 9/10/45 .025 11/5/48 .008 (Questionable data) 6/29/50 -.005 (But DJI did initially fall from 206.7 to 197.5) No more S6s until 2008 6/6/08 .106 9/22/08 .148 11/5/08 .174 1/7/09 .248 1/29/09 .191 6/15/11 .063 9/28/11 .032 10/17/11 -.023 12/12/11 .021 5/30/12 .024 6/24/16 .015 ------------------------- Avg. Decline = .069 at time of next Peerless Reversal. Avg |
Charts 5/3/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 5/3/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-03/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-03/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/3/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.97 2.09 265.44 -7% Bearish BLUE .216 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 376.46 .66 379.05 -57.3% ------- BLUE -.062 -.123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 294.03 2.85 293.87 10.6% ------- BLUE .295 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.11 3 191.02 12.1% ------- BLUE .263 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 361.02 5.19 359.76 22.9% Bullish BLUE .302 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 160.53 3.01 159.03 71.5% Bullish BLUE .253 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 74.3 1.67 73.16 157.1% ------- BLUE .332 .17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 193.35 3.8 183.97 226.1% ------- BLUE .254 .502 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 166.36 4.57 164.83 49.3% ------- BLUE .266 .397 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.91 1.93 107.31 23.9% Bearish BLUE -.069 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.65 .71 120.83 -29.8% Bullish BLUE -.078 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.34 .31 17.21 -287.9% ------- BLUE -.154 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.56 .23 21.54 32.7% Bullish BLUE .166 .025 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-03 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 289 Bullish NEWLOWS 22 MAXCP 43 MINCP 20 TTTNH 22 TTTNL 45 FASTUP 71 FASTDOWN 70 CPCROSSA 261 CPCROSSD 45 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 26 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 17 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 27 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/3/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 1 .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 BONDFUND .97 .961 .97 .951 .912 .932 INSURANC .928 .892 .892 .892 .892 .857 REGBANKS .928 .678 .5 .785 .857 .714 HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .941 .941 .882 .941 SOLAR .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 NIFTY .807 .754 .736 .771 .754 .754 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 TRANSP .8 .7 .7 .8 .8 .75 NASD-100 .791 .729 .729 .781 .739 .75 ETFS .789 .736 .771 .807 .789 .807 UTILITY .775 .725 .725 .8 .725 .75 COMPUTER .772 .772 .681 .772 .772 .727 SEMI .756 .747 .711 .747 .756 .756 FINANCE .738 .659 .647 .681 .715 .613 SP500 .735 .676 .698 .771 .749 .743 REIT .729 .635 .628 .648 .594 .702 FIDSTKS .718 .659 .691 .751 .762 .745 HACKERS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 GUNS .705 .588 .647 .588 .647 .588 DOWJONES .7 .566 .666 .733 .7 .7 GREEN .695 .608 .565 .695 .652 .652 DJI-13 .692 .615 .692 .692 .692 .692 RUS-1000 .688 .632 .631 .709 .694 .698 AUTO .666 .615 .589 .692 .794 .846 MILITARY .666 .533 .566 .6 .566 .566 SOFTWARE .666 .619 .634 .698 .666 .682 SP-100 .659 .574 .617 .702 .68 .638 BEVERAGE .647 .588 .647 .764 .764 .764 ELECTRON .632 .575 .563 .594 .613 .601 INDEXES .629 .623 .629 .639 .666 .65 CHINA .61 .525 .61 .661 .644 .61 INFRA .583 .472 .527 .611 .666 .666 RETAIL .566 .566 .509 .566 .584 .566 CHEM .538 .461 .5 .576 .557 .538 GAMING .521 .565 .521 .521 .565 .565 =============================================================================================== BIOTECH .493 .427 .408 .465 .495 .498 INDMATER .405 .278 .303 .43 .455 .468 OILGAS .38 .316 .373 .5 .591 .598 HOSPITAL .347 .304 .304 .347 .304 .304 COMODITY .3 .225 .275 .325 .35 .375 FOOD .296 .24 .296 .314 .333 .351 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .081 .061 .102 .122 .142 .224 |
===========================================================================
5/2/2019 Peerless remains on
multiple Buys. Warren
Buffet is buying into Amazon. That
will cause a boost to our QQQ position. QQQ alone is above the resistance
of last year. Its Closing Power is not rising, but we should give it a more of
a "chance
to advance". By contrast, the DJI and SP-500 are still trying to get past the
resistance
of their highs last year. I suggest not buying now the ETFs that are not clearly
above their
resistance levels. It is bullish that the AD/Line is strong. But a 2% advance
(520 points)
by the DJI could easily bring a Sell S12. Its Peerless IP21 and V-I is
negative now.
Watch AMZN tomorrow. Bulls will want it to close above its opening and
certainly
up for the day. It seems to be the broader Public that has been the net buyer here,
not Professionals. But AMZN's ITRS is a +13.1%. This is its 50-day relative
strength
indicator. It is now rising faster than QQQ. Buffet has probably been a buyer for
quite some time. Note our buying-on-intraday-weakness indicator, IP21, is +.159
for AMZN and .196 for QQQ.
A simple way to find really strong and bullish QQQ stocks is to find those with IP21s
above +.23 and ITRS readings above QQQ's. At this stage I would also want these
stocks to be making new 12 month highs. Such a screening process finds the
following:
KLAC, MSFT, PYPL and VRSK. See them among the Bullish MAXCPs tonight.
Lessons of 2007, 2011 and 2015
The last three times the DJI was in a mature bull market in early May in the third year
of the 4-year Presidential cycle and both the IP21 and V-I were negative, the DJI
soon ran into serious trouble. Study the three charts below. I would think we
will see the DJI's next top occur 2% higher, near 27000, with the internals failing
to confirm the advance much like they did in 2007, 2011 and 2015.
Charts 5/2/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 5/2/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-02/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-02/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/2/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 262.88 -1.27 265.34 -31.1% Bearish RED .192 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 375.8 -1 380.79 -92.2% Bearish BLUE -.109 -.122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 291.18 -.63 293.41 -14.8% Bearish RED .237 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 188.11 -.82 190.65 -62.3% ------- RED .197 .079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.83 .88 359.38 -2.4% ------- BLUE .242 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.52 .73 158.27 24.4% Bearish BLUE .185 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.63 .15 72.01 157.4% ------- ---- .281 .141 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.1 .61 30.98 -37.6% ------- BLUE .039 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 189.55 6.11 184.94 -3.8% ------- BLUE .215 .451 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 161.79 -2.78 164.74 -144% ------- RED .217 .373 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.98 .42 107.4 -34.2% Bearish BLUE -.07 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 119.94 -.46 121.37 -26.1% Bullish BLUE -.063 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.03 -.11 17.3 -395.6% ------- ---- -.194 -.117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.26 .06 26.31 -15.2% ------- ---- -.176 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.33 .02 21.42 -37.3% Bullish ---- .109 .016 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-02 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 110 NEWLOWS 24 MAXCP 27 MINCP 50 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 87 FASTUP 45 FASTDOWN 88 CPCROSSA 100 CPCROSSD 73 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 17 ACCUMVER 26 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 370 LOWACCUM 150 REDSELL 48 AUGSELS7 23 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/2/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .951 .912 .932 .883 INSURANC .892 .892 .892 .892 .857 .857 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 HOMEBLDG .823 .941 .941 .882 .941 .882 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 COMPUTER .772 .681 .772 .772 .727 .681 NIFTY .754 .736 .771 .754 .754 .789 SEMI .747 .711 .747 .756 .756 .747 ETFS .736 .771 .807 .789 .807 .807 NASD-100 .729 .729 .781 .739 .75 .75 UTILITY .725 .725 .8 .725 .75 .75 HACKERS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .761 TRANSP .7 .7 .8 .8 .75 .7 REGBANKS .678 .5 .785 .857 .714 .464 SP500 .676 .698 .771 .749 .743 .72 EDU .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 1 FIDSTKS .659 .691 .751 .762 .745 .702 FINANCE .659 .647 .681 .715 .613 .556 REIT .635 .628 .648 .594 .702 .574 RUS-1000 .633 .631 .708 .696 .701 .664 INDEXES .623 .629 .639 .666 .65 .639 SOFTWARE .619 .634 .698 .666 .682 .698 AUTO .615 .589 .692 .794 .846 .769 DJI-13 .615 .692 .692 .692 .692 .615 GREEN .608 .565 .695 .652 .652 .608 BEVERAGE .588 .647 .764 .764 .764 .705 GUNS .588 .647 .588 .647 .588 .529 ELECTRON .575 .563 .594 .613 .601 .588 SP-100 .574 .617 .702 .68 .638 .638 DOWJONES .566 .666 .733 .7 .7 .7 RETAIL .566 .509 .566 .584 .566 .584 GAMING .565 .521 .521 .565 .565 .521 MILITARY .533 .566 .6 .566 .566 .566 CHINA .525 .61 .661 .644 .61 .644 ============================================================================================ INFRA .472 .527 .611 .666 .666 .583 CHEM .461 .5 .576 .557 .557 .519 BIOTECH .423 .407 .464 .494 .5 .445 OILGAS .316 .373 .5 .591 .598 .605 (Dropping fast) HOSPITAL .304 .304 .347 .304 .304 .26 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 INDMATER .278 .303 .43 .455 .481 .379 FOOD .24 .296 .314 .333 .351 .333 COMODITY .225 .275 .325 .35 .375 .325 GOLD .061 .102 .122 .142 .224 .142 |
=========================================================================
5/1/2019 Peerless remains on multiple
Buys. There still may be a
breakout, but it will take
something unexpected to produce it. Most likely, there will have to first be a
pullback
that then permits a more constructive and confirmed breakout. Before this retreat,
look for another bout of Professional selling into an early rally. Bears need to see
another weak close after a strong opening. That will bring more decisive breakdown
by the key ETFs below their Closing Power uptrends. It will drop the IP21 into
redder territory.
For now, wait. Clearly the DJI is finding it hard to breakout past 27000.
Continue
to hold QQQ. It usually tops out after the DJI. Consider doing some
short-selling in
the MINCPs of tonight. The numbers of MINCPs were greater than MAXCP today
even as the SP-500 is flirting with a new high. It also cannot be very positive that only
3%
of SP-500 stocks made a new high today. The Closing Powers were noticeably weak.
The DJI closed more than 100 below its daily high. Professionals are worried that
the
upside may be limited. Another bearish point, today the Peerless DJI's Accumulation
turned negative. This may be setting up a Sell S12 if the DJI were to rally 2% up
from here without some more constructive basing.
.
The V-Indicator also turned negative today. In 2007. 2011 and 2015, the
three most recent examples of Springs in the years before a Presidential Election, the
turning negative by the IP21 and V-I soon led to signifiant market tops and declines of
10% to 18% intra-day.
What Happened in Past when IP21 Turned Negative
after Late April in 3rd Years before Pres. Election
2007, 2011 and 2015
2007 on Jul 13th, Peerless gave a Sell S9V signal based on DJI closing
2.6% over 21-dma with V-I at -15 and IP21 only +.005. The
P-I turned negative a few days later and then the DJI fell 10%.
2011 on May 2nd, Peerless gave a Sell S9V signal based on DJI closing
2.8% over 21-dma with V-I at -17. P-I and IP21 (+.147)
was fairly positive. DJI rallied again to July 21 and then fell 17%,.
2015 IP21 stayed negative (or nearly so from 3/24 (18011) to
Sell S12 on May 19 when DJI closed at 1.3% band and IP21<0.
In this case P-I had deteriorated down to +13. DJI then fell 18%
intra-day on Aug 24.
Pct of Various Groups Making
New Highs.
5/1 4/30
--------------------------------------------------------------------
All stocks
3%
3.5%
DJI-30
3.3% 3.3%
SP-100
4% 7.4%
SP-500
3% (drop) 6.7%
NASDAQ-100 3%
4.0%
SOXL
3% (3/110) 0%
REITS
5% 5%
UTILITIES 0%
12.5%
Charts 5/1/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 5/1/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/May-01/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/May-01/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 5/1/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.15 -1.64 264.53 -33.3% Bearish RED .213 ===== --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 376.8 -.89 382.8 17.7% ------- RED -.122 -.115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 291.81 -2.21 292.05 -7.2% Bearish RED .258 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 188.93 -.61 190.48 -20.5% ------- RED .247 .076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.95 -4.15 356 -73.3% Bearish RED .198 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.79 -1.5 156.75 -40.2% Bearish RED .169 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.48 -1.65 70.35 171.7% ------- RED .302 .139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 183.44 -4.61 189.69 -453.1% ------- RED .226 .435 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 164.57 -1.26 166.55 -74.8% ------- RED .292 .392 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.56 -.86 106.71 -3.7% Bearish RED -.074 -.073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.4 -.8 120.57 -2.9% Bullish RED -.059 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.14 -.53 17.37 -483.4% Bearish RED -.264 -.109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.31 -.23 21.49 -69.7% Bullish RED .117 .017 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-05-01 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 108 NEWLOWS 33 MAXCP 11 MINCP 64 Bearish TTTNH 23 TTTNL 94 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 102 CPCROSSA 59 CPCROSSD 279 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 16 ACCUMVER 28 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 369 LOWACCUM 151 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 32 TRAPDOOR 12 |
TABLE 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 5/1/19 BULLISH = 35 BEARISH = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .951 .912 .932 .883 .873 HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .882 .941 .941 .941 INSURANC .892 .892 .892 .857 .857 .857 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 JETS .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 ETFS .771 .807 .789 .807 .807 .807 NIFTY .736 .771 .754 .754 .789 .842 NASD-100 .729 .781 .739 .75 .75 .76 ^^^^^ UTILITY .725 .8 .725 .75 .75 .725 SEMI .718 .754 .763 .763 .754 .781 HACKERS .714 .714 .714 .714 .761 .761 TRANSP .7 .8 .8 .75 .7 .85 SP500 .697 .769 .748 .746 .738 .767 DJI-13 .692 .692 .692 .692 .615 .769 ^^^^^ FIDSTKS .69 .75 .76 .75 .706 .739 COMPUTER .681 .772 .772 .727 .681 .681 DOWJONES .666 .733 .7 .7 .7 .8 ^^^^^ EDU .666 .666 .833 .833 1 1 BEVERAGE .647 .764 .764 .764 .705 .588 FINANCE .647 .681 .715 .613 .556 .613 GUNS .647 .588 .647 .588 .529 .588 SOFTWARE .634 .698 .666 .682 .698 .682 RUS-1000 .631 .708 .695 .703 .68 .715 INDEXES .629 .639 .666 .65 .639 .677 REIT .628 .648 .594 .702 .614 .601 SP-100 .617 .702 .68 .638 .638 .723 CHINA .61 .661 .644 .61 .644 .644 AUTO .589 .692 .794 .846 .769 .897 MILITARY .566 .6 .566 .566 .566 .566 GREEN .565 .695 .652 .652 .608 .652 ELECTRON .563 .594 .613 .601 .588 .645 INFRA .527 .611 .666 .666 .611 .666 GAMING .521 .521 .565 .565 .521 .565 RETAIL .519 .576 .596 .576 .596 .634 ================================================================================================ CHEM .5 .576 .557 .557 .557 .653 REGBANKS .5 .785 .857 .714 .5 .714 ================================================================================================ BIOTECH .404 .464 .494 .5 .453 .439 OILGAS .373 .5 .591 .598 .598 .654 HOSPITAL .304 .347 .304 .304 .26 .217 INDMATER .303 .43 .455 .481 .405 .531 FOOD .296 .314 .333 .351 .333 .407 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 COMODITY .275 .325 .35 .375 .325 .4 GOLD .102 .122 .142 .224 .142 .163 |
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4/30/2019 Peerless remains on
multiple Buys. Hold QQQ.
Apple's after-close earnings today
should be a big boost for all the major indexes and ETFs. But GOOG dropped 99
today. We will see tomorrow if AAPL's success lifts SOXL and GOOG, too.
A DJI breakout above 27000 could certainly change the market's mood. It remains
defensive. Volume did pick up today. That could be a bullish sign for the
future.
A breakout could come on a series of more high volume days. But a a catalyst will
probably be required. Possibly, enough Democrats and Republicans will agree to favor
a badly needed Public Works program before November 2020, or possibly the
catalyst will be a trade deal between the US and China or possibly we will see
signs soon that the FED will be lowering rates as the President wants.
More New Highs Are Important To Watch for Now
It is important that the market stay attractive to bullish traders who jump aboard
stocks making new highs. Usually stocks with confirming internals keep rallying.
In particular, we do not want so see breakout failures soon after a fresh new
high is made or when resistance cannot quite be overcome. The recent breakout
failures by MMM and XLNK should worry the bulls.
For wary traders, one solution now is to stick with the ETFs that make clear new
highs, like QQQ. Another is to buy the steadiest gainers making new highs that also
show very limited downside volatility like V snd MC are standouts here.
While the DJI is working through its resistance, the psychology of the market seems
to have a certain character. Until it actually takes place, traders seem to like
stocks that seem to offer low risk but are still running to new highs. A DJI
breakout
might encourage a lot more aggressiveness.
Only 3.5% of all the A-Z stocks and ETFs made new highs today. Small wonder that
the big ETFs are so attractive now. It will take a lot more stocks running in new
high ground to change the way traders are playing the current market environment.
Still, we should watch the leading ETFs now, I think, to see if the number of stocks
in their group making new highs starts to rise. Let's watch that. Right now
Utilities,
SP-500 and SP-100 stocks have the highest ranking percentage.
Pct of NHs
All stocks
3.5%
(sample of 2352 stocks).
DJI-30
3.3%
SP-100
7.4%
SP-500
6.7%
NASDAQ-100 4.0%
SOXL
0%
REITS
4.7%
UTILITIES
12.5%
Charts 4/30/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/30/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-30/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-30/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/30/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 265.79 .35 265.92 -13% ------- RED .32 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 377.69 -1.36 375.46 48.5% ------- RED -.062 -.124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 294.02 .15 292.23 19.5% ------- BLUE .358 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 189.54 -1.48 189.71 -20.2% ------- BLUE .347 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 359.1 -.66 360.21 2.1% ------- RED .327 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 158.29 -.74 158.06 22.8% ------- RED .251 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 74.13 .97 70.01 293.3% ------- BLUE .388 .164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 188.05 4.08 200.61 -181% ------- BLUE .335 .455 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 165.83 1 167.05 -32.8% ------- BLUE .415 .399 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.42 -.89 105.64 -17.8% Bearish RED -.08 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.2 .37 120.47 44.7% Bullish BLUE -.079 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.67 -.54 17.81 -535.4% ------- RED -.155 -.078 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.54 0 21.61 -99.5% Bullish BLUE .223 .025 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-30 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 276 NEWLOWS 29 MAXCP 56 MINCP 33 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 76 FASTUP 46 FASTDOWN 80 CPCROSSA 104 CPCROSSD 104 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 13 ACCUMVER 20 HIGHIP21 33 HIUPPCT 13 VHIP21 374 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 24 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/30/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .951 .912 .932 .883 .873 .815 HOMEBLDG .941 .882 .941 .941 .941 .882 INSURANC .892 .892 .857 .857 .857 .857 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 ETFS .807 .789 .807 .807 .807 .859 JETS .8 .8 .8 .7 .8 .9 UTILITY .8 .725 .75 .75 .725 .725 TRANSP .8 .8 .75 .7 .85 .9 REGBANKS .785 .857 .714 .5 .714 .642 NASD-100 .781 .739 .75 .75 .76 .791 ^^^^ COMPUTER .772 .772 .727 .681 .681 .727 NIFTY .771 .754 .754 .789 .842 .859 SP500 .771 .749 .743 .735 .761 .775 ^^^^ BEVERAGE .764 .764 .764 .705 .588 .529 FIDSTKS .751 .762 .745 .702 .74 .789 SEMI .747 .756 .756 .747 .774 .765 DOWJONES .733 .7 .7 .7 .8 .833 ^^^^ HACKERS .714 .714 .714 .761 .761 .761 RUS-1000 .708 .695 .701 .682 .716 .737 SP-100 .702 .68 .638 .638 .723 .765 SOFTWARE .698 .666 .682 .698 .698 .698 GREEN .695 .652 .652 .608 .652 .695 AUTO .692 .794 .846 .769 .897 .923 DJI-13 .692 .692 .692 .615 .769 .846 FINANCE .681 .715 .613 .556 .602 .647 EDU .666 .833 .833 1 1 .666 CHINA .661 .644 .61 .644 .644 .677 REIT .648 .594 .702 .614 .608 .527 INDEXES .639 .666 .65 .639 .677 .672 INFRA .611 .666 .666 .611 .666 .694 MILITARY .6 .566 .566 .566 .566 .633 ELECTRON .594 .613 .601 .588 .645 .639 CHEM .588 .568 .568 .568 .705 .745 GUNS .588 .647 .588 .529 .588 .588 RETAIL .566 .584 .566 .584 .622 .566 GAMING .521 .565 .565 .521 .565 .565 ============================================================================================ OILGAS .5 .591 .598 .598 .661 .767 ============================================================================================ BIOTECH .461 .494 .5 .453 .439 .483 INDMATER .43 .455 .481 .405 .531 .556 HOSPITAL .347 .304 .304 .26 .217 .217 COMODITY .325 .35 .375 .325 .375 .425 FOOD .314 .333 .351 .333 .388 .425 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .122 .142 .224 .142 .163 .163 |
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
4/29/2019 Peerless remains on
multiple Buys. The DJI keeps trying to breakout above
the resistance at 26825. Volume and volatility remain very low. This
means
there may not be enough buying power to eat up the overhead supplies of
stock. Assordingly, I have suggested holding QQQ but not DIA until it can achieve
its breakout. Seldom does such low volatility last very much longer. Be
patient
regarding DIA. QQQ almost looks good enough to add positions in it, but let;s
wait. It may follow the breakout failure scenario of SOXL, as shown below.
Today, the NASDAQ made a confirmed nominal new high. So, far its breakout
and SPY's are margnal and will need to be expanded to make them trustworthy..
A breakout to be valid must show a big increase in volume. If there is no such
increase, the stock or ETF is likely to go sidewise or even completely fail the breakout
and start a "false-breakout" decline. As the first of the big ETFs
to breakout and
because QQQ has a significantly higher ITRS than DIA, I would much prefer to
continue to hold QQQ or buy more of it.
Charts 4/29/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/29/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-29/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-29/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/29/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 265.44 .1 266.48 7% Bullish BLUE .335 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 379.05 -1.74 374.02 51.4% Bullish BLUE -.014 -.115 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 293.87 .46 292.88 61.6% Bullish BLUE .347 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 191.02 .37 190.31 81.7% Bullish BLUE .356 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 359.76 .38 358.95 72.1% Bullish RED .268 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 159.03 .76 157.57 120.9% Bullish BLUE .24 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 73.16 1.15 69.96 332.8% Bullish BLUE .354 .19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 183.97 -.97 194.96 -138.4% Bullish RED .34 .434 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 164.83 .09 166.92 102.5% Bullish RED .42 .41 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.31 -.09 106.8 128% Bearish RED -.052 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.83 -.54 120.12 19.1% Bullish ---- -.148 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.21 -.09 18.56 -360.2% ------- RED -.100 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.54 .12 21.97 -99.1% Bullish ---- .124 .02 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-29 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 216 Bullish NEWLOWS 18 MAXCP 27 MINCP 15 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 42 FASTUP 53 FASTDOWN 51 CPCROSSA 89 CPCROSSD 69 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 23 HIUPPCT 12 VHIP21 393 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 20 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/29/19 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .932 .883 .873 .825 .805 INSURANC .892 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 HOMEBLDG .882 .941 .941 .941 .882 .882 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 REGBANKS .857 .714 .5 .714 .642 .392 EDU .833 .833 1 1 .666 .833 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 JETS .8 .8 .7 .8 .9 .6 TRANSP .8 .75 .7 .85 .9 .8 AUTO .794 .846 .769 .897 .923 .923 ETFS .789 .807 .807 .807 .859 .859 COMPUTER .772 .727 .681 .681 .727 .681 BEVERAGE .764 .764 .705 .588 .529 .529 FIDSTKS .762 .745 .702 .74 .789 .745 SEMI .756 .756 .747 .774 .774 .756 NIFTY .754 .754 .789 .842 .859 .842 SP500 .749 .743 .735 .761 .778 .716 ---- NASD-100 .739 .75 .75 .76 .791 .75 ---- UTILITY .725 .75 .75 .725 .725 .6 FINANCE .715 .613 .556 .602 .67 .579 HACKERS .714 .714 .761 .761 .761 .761 DOWJONES .7 .7 .7 .8 .833 .833 ---- RUS-1000 .695 .701 .68 .717 .74 .671 DJI-13 .692 .692 .615 .769 .846 .846 SP-100 .68 .638 .638 .723 .765 .744 INFRA .666 .666 .611 .666 .694 .694 SOFTWARE .666 .682 .698 .698 .698 .666 INDEXES .661 .65 .639 .677 .672 .655 GREEN .652 .652 .608 .652 .695 .695 GUNS .647 .588 .529 .588 .588 .47 CHINA .644 .61 .644 .644 .677 .661 ELECTRON .613 .601 .588 .645 .645 .639 REIT .594 .702 .614 .608 .533 .412 OILGAS .591 .598 .598 .661 .767 .76 RETAIL .584 .566 .584 .622 .566 .509 CHEM .568 .568 .568 .705 .764 .705 MILITARY .566 .566 .566 .566 .633 .533 GAMING .565 .565 .521 .565 .565 .521 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .491 .5 .453 .439 .483 .404 INDMATER .455 .481 .405 .531 .556 .518 COMODITY .35 .375 .325 .375 .425 .425 FOOD .333 .351 .333 .388 .425 .425 HOSPITAL .304 .304 .26 .217 .217 .13 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .142 .224 .142 .163 .163 .163 |
====================================================================
4/26/2019
Peerless remains on Buys. Our internal strength indicators (P-I, Accum.
Index, Closing Powers and NYSE A/D Lines) do not show the signs yet
of a top. The DJI may have stalled at its resistance. I see no point in buying
or holding it here. The upside potential is too limited until it clearly breaks out
over 27000. I would much prefer to hold QQQ or possibly TECL (which has
both the highest IP21 and ITRS in Table 1. Momentum is still pointed higher.
Wall Street knows full well that Trump has been their benefactor. Their best
interests lie in holding the market up and then causing a Summer breakout.
A turning downward of momentum could quickly become dangerous. That cannot
be allowed. The Fed has heard this message "loud and clear" from the White
House.
Bullish Seasonality Continues at least
until Peerless Gives A Sell.
Peerless teaches us to respect the bullishness of the third year in the four year
cycle because since 1967, the average 21-trading day gain after April 28th is +2.1%
.
The average gain over the next 42-trading days is +4.2%. And after 65-trading days,
the average gain is +6.0%.
We can also see how Peerless handled the Republican stock market rallies in
these third years, 1955, 1959, 1971, 1975, 1983...2015 after our current date,
April 28th. There were 10 such years. In 1971, 4-28-1971 was an important
top. But 1971 is a different-looking year. Nixon was coping with an unpopular
war AND Inflation. So, he stopped backing the Dollar with Gold or Silver and
he instituted 6 months of wage and price controls.
Mays brought tops in three of these years
when a Republican was President.
Junes brought tops in four of these years. Julys brought July tops.
Five of the ten cases brought drops of only 4% to 5% (1955, 1959, 1987, 1991
and 2003. But in 4 instances, the DJI fell 10%-18% at the time of the next next
Peerless
Sell.
---- Next DJI top with decline to lower Band ---
Starting Point Date
Signal la/ma P-I IP21
V-I Drop
1955 4-28-55 7-27-55 S8 1.018 +11
.041 -157 4%
1959 4-28-59 5-29-59 S8 1.021 -46 .006
-370 4%
1971 4-28-71
4-28-71 S19 1.024 +82
.095 +1 12%
P-I turns negativ3 after 100 straight positive days.
1975 4-28-75
6-23-75 S18
1.037 +150 .049 +1 10% for peak a few days later.
OBVPct is negative (-.021)
IPA NC
1983 4-28-83
6-17-83
None 1.025 +48 .089 +1 7%
7-26-83 S9 1.024 -73 .058
-4 7%
1987 4-28-87 5-6-87 S9 1.021-185
-.079 -15 5%
1991 4-28-91 6-3-91 S5 1.035 +80 +.135
+1 4%
2003 4-28-03 6-17-03 None 1.057 +572 +.122 +117 4%
2007 4-28-07 7-16-07 None 1.028 +88 -.003 -60
10%
2015 4-28-07 5-19-15 None 1.013 +13 -.008 -48
18%
Before the DJI reaches a peak and brings a decline below the lower band, we
should get a Peerless Sell. Since no Sell seems near and since the QQQ often
tops two months after the DJI, lets continue to hold QQQ. Also consider
buying TECL on its next successful test of its rising 21-dma and holding it so
long as its rising Closing Power uptrend is not violated.
TECL's support at 154 (its 21-day ma) should offer
a good trading entry-point. Buying there, will give us a
nice long trade back up to 170, the old 1-year high.
Charts 4/26/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/26/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-26/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-26/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/26/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DIA 265.34 .81 265.07 -4.1% Bullish BLUE .362 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 380.79 -2.01 375.17 9.5% Bullish RED .003 -.11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 293.41 1.36 290.27 58.1% Bullish BLUE .379 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 190.65 .17 187.92 86.2% Bullish BLUE .347 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 359.38 3.38 354.6 51% Bullish BLUE .319 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 158.27 1.52 155.23 83.9% Bullish BLUE .273 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.01 1.66 68.49 211.3% Bullish BLUE .399 .147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.98 .65 28.33 142% Bullish BLUE .204 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 184.94 -4.75 189.28 -110.5% Bullish BLUE .318 .456 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 164.74 -1.81 161.44 132.5% Bullish BLUE .452 .418 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.4 .69 104.59 135.3% Bearish BLUE-.044 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.37 .8 120.37 41.5% Bearish BLUE-.187 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.3 -.07 18.5 -196.7% ------- BLUE-.044 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.42 -.07 21.97 -71.3% Bullish RED .117 .025 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-26 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 233 Bullish NEWLOWS 20 MAXCP 37 MINCP 19 TTTNH 307 TTTNL 47 FASTUP 58 FASTDOWN 46 CPCROSSA 227 CPCROSSD 29 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 31 HIUPPCT 15 VHIP21 399 LOWACCUM 142 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 19 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/26/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .941 .882 .882 .882 BONDFUND .932 .883 .873 .825 .815 .854 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .892 AUTO .846 .769 .897 .923 .923 .923 EDU .833 1 1 .666 .833 1 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 ETFS .807 .807 .807 .859 .859 .877 JETS .8 .7 .8 .9 .6 .8 BEVERAGE .764 .705 .588 .529 .529 .588 SEMI .756 .747 .774 .774 .756 .783 NIFTY .754 .789 .842 .859 .842 .842 NASD-100 .75 .75 .76 .791 .76 .76 UTILITY .75 .75 .725 .725 .65 .7 TRANSP .75 .7 .85 .9 .8 .85 FIDSTKS .745 .702 .74 .789 .751 .756 SP500 .743 .735 .761 .778 .723 .753 COMPUTER .727 .681 .681 .727 .681 .681 HACKERS .714 .761 .761 .761 .761 .619 REGBANKS .714 .5 .714 .642 .428 .607 REIT .702 .614 .608 .533 .418 .513 RUS-1000 .701 .68 .716 .741 .676 .704 DOWJONES .7 .7 .8 .833 .833 .8 DJI-13 .692 .615 .769 .846 .846 .769 INFRA .666 .611 .666 .694 .694 .694 GREEN .652 .608 .652 .695 .695 .695 INDEXES .645 .639 .677 .672 .661 .666 SP-100 .638 .638 .723 .765 .755 .734 FINANCE .613 .556 .602 .67 .579 .625 CHINA .61 .644 .644 .677 .661 .677 ELECTRON .601 .588 .645 .645 .639 .67 OILGAS .598 .598 .661 .767 .76 .676 GUNS .588 .529 .588 .588 .47 .588 MILITARY .566 .566 .566 .633 .533 .566 RETAIL .566 .584 .622 .566 .509 .66 GAMING .565 .521 .565 .565 .521 .565 CHEM .557 .557 .692 .75 .711 .711 ============================================================================================== BIOTECH .497 .453 .439 .483 .409 .409 SOFTWARE .482 .413 .448 .448 .431 .396 INDMATER .481 .405 .531 .556 .518 .556 COMODITY .375 .325 .375 .425 .425 .475 FOOD .351 .333 .388 .425 .425 .462 HOSPITAL .304 .26 .217 .217 .173 .086 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 GOLD .224 .142 .163 .163 .163 .244 |
===========================================================================
===========================================================================
4/25/2019 Peerless remains on
Buys. But that does not mean we can not get an unsignalled
decline to lower band. Such a decline is becoming more and more likely. Last
night
I showed this was the most likely scenario at some point soon, despite the generally
bullish seasonality for the next 3 months.
Should we take some profits now that the DJI, the NASDAQ and SP-500 have gotten
back up to last year's highs? The upside would seem to be limited. Just
before Easter,
I suggested traders should take profits in DIA and SPY but hold QQQ. The NASDAQ,
as a whole, remains much stronger than DIA. So, it, too, should be held, I think
But more bearish signs appeared today.
For the first time in quite a while, there were a number of attractive short sales
in our Bearish MINCPs. The strong Dollar is again hurting South American stocks. At the
same time, it is also attracting investment funds here and that could encourage or enable
the FED to cut rates to boost Trump's re-election chances next year. (Pay no
attention
to Powell's assurances that he is own man and political independent.)
Secondly, today a blue chip stalwart, high priced MMM fell 28 points (lowering the
DJI by nearly 200 points all by itself) on disappointing earnings. What is
especially
disturbing here is that a DJIA-30 blue chip utterly failed on on its attempt to breakout
and without much technical warning. This will discourage other blue chip breakouts
and is
going to make it very hard for the DJI to get much past 27000 for a while. Traders
will sense this and seeing little upside potential from the DJI, are going to be more
likely to
take profits in DIA and probably SPY, I believe.
Thirdly, the percentage of DJI-30 stocks above their
65-dma is clealy slipping.
See Table 3 below. This, too, is a warning for DIA.
Our Usual Considerations
Peerless remains on its Buys B4, B19, B15 and another Buy B4. The NYSE
A/D Line is beginning to break its uptrend, but we will need to see a set of
negative breadth days to judge a clear reversal here. No standard, reversing
Peerless Sell seems imment. The bullish seasonality works against a Peerless Sell.
The most likely next Peerless Sell will occur when the P-Indicator turns negative.
The Hourly DJI's DISI-OBV Line is still rising.
The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY and QQQ
are still rated as Bullish in Table 1
further below.
The Limitations
of Peerless at These Junctures
Most commonly, the DJI makes a nominal closing
high before reversing significantly.
Here that would mean a rise to 27000. But a Peerless Sell signal does NOT always
appear
in a timely way in the cases of a big rise up after a 20% DJI decline to resistance and
then a drop to the lower band is about to occur. There were no Peerless Sells in the
last two cases, January 1999 and November 2016. We might want to use the NYSE
A/D Line trend-break here. But that often only comes after the DJI has sold off
2%-3%
from its highs. Still using it would have worked well in the 1980 cases when the
DJI shot-up right through its expected resistance.
1. Sell S12 - February 1934 - Nominal DJI NH and then 17% DJI decline.
4. Sell S9, S12, S15 April 1972 - Nominal DJI NH and
then lower band.
5. July 1980 - NH led to further DJI highs while NYSE
A/D Line keeps rising.
Appropriately, no Sell until S9 in September 1980.
6. January 1999 - Nominal DJI NH and then
decline to rising 65-dma.
No Peerless Sell in January or April before declines to lower band.
7. November 1916 - Rally back to old highs stops after
NYSE A/D Line uptrend broken,
No Peerless Sell.
Charts 4/25/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/25/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-25/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-25/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/25/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.53 -1.39 265.56 0% Bullish BLUE .337 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 382.8 7.34 380.07 70.1% Bullish BLUE .042 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 292.05 -.18 290.02 44.7% Bearish RED .327 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 190.48 .77 187.39 88.3% ------- RED .288 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 356 -4.21 355.74 13.3% ------- RED .294 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.75 -1.31 155.64 20.8% Bearish RED .252 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.35 .34 69.07 72.8% ------- BLUE .346 .131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.33 -.87 30.13 -56.7% ------- RED .192 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 189.69 -10.92 189.2 22.1% ------- RED .228 .506 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 166.55 -.5 160.38 228.6% Bullish RED .391 .437 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.71 1.07 104.54 74.5% Bearish BLUE -.077 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.57 .1 120.37 12.1% ------- RED -.211 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.37 -.44 18.01 -241.4% ------- RED -.087 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.49 -.12 21.73 -68.8% Bullish --- .106 -.01 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-25 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 132 NEWLOWS 28 MAXCP 27 MINCP 31 TTTNH 18 TTTNL 66 FASTUP 47 FASTDOWN 58 CPCROSSA 74 CPCROSSD 125 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 20 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 15 HIUPPCT 15 VHIP21 395 LOWACCUM 148 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 23 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/25/19 Bullish = 47 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 1 1 .666 .833 1 .833 HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 BONDFUND .883 .873 .825 .815 .864 .893 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .857 .857 .857 .857 .892 .892 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 ETFS .807 .807 .859 .859 .877 .877 NIFTY .789 .842 .859 .842 .842 .842 AUTO .769 .897 .923 .923 .923 .923 HACKERS .761 .761 .761 .761 .666 .714 SEMI .754 .781 .781 .763 .781 .79 NASD-100 .75 .76 .791 .76 .781 .77 ^^^^^^ UTILITY .75 .725 .725 .65 .7 .65 SP500 .735 .761 .778 .723 .757 .749 ^^^^^^ BEVERAGE .705 .588 .529 .529 .588 .588 FIDSTKS .702 .74 .789 .751 .756 .762 DOWJONES .7 .8 .833 .833 .8 .8 ^^^^^^ JETS .7 .8 .9 .6 .8 .8 TRANSP .7 .85 .9 .8 .85 .85 SOFTWARE .698 .698 .698 .666 .666 .65 COMPUTER .681 .681 .727 .681 .681 .681 RUS-1000 .68 .716 .74 .678 .712 .705 INDEXES .645 .677 .672 .661 .666 .693 CHINA .644 .644 .677 .661 .677 .694 SP-100 .638 .723 .765 .755 .744 .734 DJI-13 .615 .769 .846 .846 .769 .769 INFRA .611 .666 .694 .694 .694 .722 GREEN .608 .652 .695 .695 .695 .695 REIT .606 .6 .526 .413 .526 .453 OILGAS .598 .661 .767 .76 .683 .739 ELECTRON .592 .649 .643 .643 .668 .681 RETAIL .584 .622 .566 .509 .66 .641 MILITARY .566 .566 .633 .533 .566 .533 CHEM .557 .692 .75 .711 .73 .75 FINANCE .556 .602 .67 .579 .625 .75 GUNS .529 .588 .588 .47 .588 .588 GAMING .521 .565 .565 .521 .608 .565 ========================================================================================== REGBANKS .5 .714 .642 .428 .607 .785 ========================================================================================== BIOTECH .45 .439 .483 .409 .412 .39 INDMATER .405 .531 .556 .518 .556 .632 FOOD .333 .388 .425 .425 .462 .444 COMODITY .325 .375 .425 .425 .475 .475 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 HOSPITAL .26 .217 .217 .173 .086 .086 GOLD .142 .163 .163 .163 .244 .265 |
============================================================================
============================================================================
4/24/2019 Peerless remains on its
Buys B4, B19, B15 and another Buy B4. The NYSE
A/D Line's uptrend is still intact. The Hourly DJI's DISI is also still in an
uptrend.
The DIA's Closing Power is rising. Most likely, the DJI will
make a nominal close above
27000 before there its declines again to the lower band. See the new study below
tonight of DJI run-ups to the former highs after 20% DJI declines.) The Dollar
made another new 12-month high today. This will serve to attract overseas
capital to the US but it will hurt exporting plants. It should help the FED to
decide to cut interest rates. I have shown recently that the QQQ usually tops
out a month or more after the DJI does. Since the the QQQ has outperformed
the DJI +6.7% over the last 50 trading days, I suggest continuing to hold QQQ.
It should continue to outperform the DJI and SPY.
"Don't Go Away"
Some will tell you the adage: "In May go away" from the market. That's
good advice
for most years, but not in years before a Presidential Election, when the DJI shows
a typical advance of +6% over the three months following the last day of April the
DJI rises 81% of the time, based on the years: 1967, 1971, 1975... 2011, 2015...
(By comparision, in the other Years the months of May, June and July bring an
average DJI gain of only 0.2%. In the years of the Pres. Election the average DJI
gain
is +1.2%. In the years right after the Election, the avergae gain is -0.6% and in
the
years of the middle years, the Election is +0.2%. )
Professionals Are Buying Again.
The QQQ, SOXL and SP-500 have made nominal new highs. Of the major
ETFs only IBB is rated as having a falling Closing Powers. See Table 1 below.
SOXL's strength is showing the way higher for technology stocks. Qualcomm's
huge move up in 1999 was a very big part of the tech bubble back then. It's
big advance now over the last weeks seems very auspicious.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/24/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.92 -.56 264.53 26.2% Bullish RED .315 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 375.46 1.44 377.52 -82.9% Bullish RED -.001 -.13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 292.23 -.65 289.45 35.6% Bullish RED .321 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 189.71 -.6 187.15 85.4% Bullish RED .261 .067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 360.21 1.26 355.05 35.1% Bullish BLUE .317 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 158.06 .49 156.1 16.6% Bullish BLUE .24 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.01 .05 69.34 41.1% ------- BLUE .371 .139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 200.61 5.65 188.84 530% Bullish BLUE .234 .678 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 167.05 .13 159.1 324.4% Bullish RED .399 .481 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.64 -1.16 105.14 -176.7% Bearish RED -.081 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.81 -.75 18.25 -133.7% ------- RED -.055 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.61 -.36 21.79 -18.3% Bullish RED .091 -.019 |
A Nominal New High and Then A Decline Is
Likely.
The DJI is aimed at making a nominal new high. Then it is most likely to pull back
to the lower band if it does what it most often does when it quickly recovers
from a decline of approximately 20%. Study the past DJI recoveries below as they
got to the resistance levels that match DJI-26800-27000 now. In 2 cases, the
the DJI only go to the old highs. In only one case did the DJI continue to rally for
as long
as NYSE A/D Line was rallying. But in 4 instances, the DJI made a nominal new
high and then fell back to the lower band, at least. That seems like the most likely
scenario now.
1. June 1915 - Old high reached, then Decline back to rising 65-dma
was good buying opportunity.
2. August 1916 - Nominal DJI NH and then 10% DJI
decline.
3. February 1934 - Nominal DJI NH and then 17% DJI
decline.
4. April 1972 - Nominal DJI NH and then lower band.
5. July 1980 - NH led to further DJI highs while NYSE
A/D Line keeps rising.
6. January 1999 - Nominal DJI NH and then decline to
rising 65-dma.
7. November 1916 - Rally back to old highs stops after
NYSE A/D Line uptrend broken.
1915 |
1926 |
1934 |
1971 17% Decline and 1972 Recovery |
|
1980 |
1998-1999 |
2015 |
Charts 4/24/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/24/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-24/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-24/BEARISH.htm |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190424 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 195 Bullish NEWLOWS 14 MAXCP 34 MINCP 25 TTTNH 28 TTTNL 42 FASTUP 43 FASTDOWN 64 CPCROSSA 104 CPCROSSD 103 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 9 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 398 LOWACCUM 154 REDSELL 50 AUGSELS7 27 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA Bullish = 40 Bearish = 6 4/24/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 1 .666 .833 1 .833 .833 HOMEBLDG .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 AUTO .897 .923 .923 .923 .923 .897 BONDFUND .873 .825 .815 .864 .893 .912 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .857 .857 .857 .892 .892 .892 TRANSP .85 .9 .8 .85 .85 .85 NIFTY .842 .859 .842 .842 .842 .877 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 ETFS .807 .859 .859 .877 .877 .877 DOWJONES .8 .833 .833 .8 .8 .833 JETS .8 .9 .6 .8 .8 .8 SEMI .774 .774 .756 .774 .783 .792 DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .769 .769 .846 HACKERS .761 .761 .761 .666 .809 .761 SP500 .761 .778 .723 .757 .753 .796 NASD-100 .76 .791 .76 .781 .781 .812 FIDSTKS .74 .789 .751 .756 .762 .794 UTILITY .725 .725 .65 .7 .65 .75 SP-100 .723 .765 .755 .744 .744 .776 RUS-1000 .716 .74 .676 .713 .711 .753 REGBANKS .714 .642 .428 .607 .785 .785 SOFTWARE .698 .698 .666 .666 .65 .666 CHEM .692 .75 .711 .73 .769 .769 COMPUTER .681 .727 .681 .681 .681 .727 INDEXES .677 .672 .661 .666 .693 .704 INFRA .666 .694 .694 .694 .722 .722 OILGAS .661 .767 .76 .683 .739 .753 GREEN .652 .695 .695 .695 .695 .739 ELECTRON .645 .645 .639 .664 .677 .689 CHINA .644 .677 .661 .677 .694 .694 RETAIL .622 .566 .509 .66 .641 .622 REIT .608 .533 .418 .533 .459 .547 FINANCE .602 .67 .579 .625 .761 .727 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .588 .588 .588 GUNS .588 .588 .47 .588 .588 .647 MILITARY .566 .633 .533 .566 .533 .6 GAMING .565 .565 .521 .608 .565 .478 INDMATER .531 .556 .518 .556 .632 .632 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOTECH .437 .483 .409 .412 .396 .524 FOOD .388 .425 .425 .462 .444 .444 COMODITY .375 .425 .425 .475 .475 .475 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .142 HOSPITAL .217 .217 .173 .086 .086 .13 GOLD .163 .163 .163 .244 .265 .326 |
===========================================================================
4/23/2019 Peerless remains on its Buys B4,
B19, B15 and another Buy B4. The NYSE
A/D Line's uptrend is still intact. The Hourly DJI's DISI is also still in an
uptrend.
With the DJI having reached the resistance of its
highs of last year, we might
expect the rally to pause and even pull back, if it behaves typically and under the
control of regular-thinking Professionals. Commonly, it falls back after making a
nominal new closing high, presumably that would mean after closing slightly above
27000.
But by the way the QQQ and Semi-conductors are now leading the DJI, I think
we have to put credence in the theory that we are about to start a runaway-to-the-
upside market move, All it will take will be come kind of catalyst for the general
market, perhaps like the recent Apple-Qualcomm decision has set in motion for
a number of other semi-conductors. QCOM can be very wild. In 1999,
it rose
from 5 and peaked at 100 as the year ended. Another move like this would
excite lots of on-lookers.
So, let's give QQQ more chance to run. I showed last night that QQQ may very
well hold up for two months even after the DJI peaks. I believe the catalyst for
the general market will be a Trump trade deal with China.
Charts 4/23/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/23/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-23/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-23/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/23/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 266.48 1.41 264.53 50.4% Bullish BLUE .338 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.02 -1.15 381.72 -19% Bullish RED .079 -.137 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 292.88 2.61 290.16 50.2% Bullish BLUE .346 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 190.31 2.39 186.5 119% Bullish BLUE .311 .069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 358.95 4.35 357.71 21.2% Bullish BLUE .336 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.57 2.34 157.54 12.8% ------- BLUE .252 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.96 1.47 69.44 98.6% ------- BLUE .339 .149 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.68 1.35 30.6 -58.4% ------- BLUE .187 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 194.96 5.68 180.62 823% Bullish BLUE .198 .652 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 166.92 5.48 156.61 396.2% Bullish BLUE .404 .477 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 106.8 2.21 109.39 -172.7% Bearish BLUE-.026 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.56 .06 18.3 181.4% Bullish BLUE .023 .065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.97 0 21.69 122% Bullish ---- .147 -.002 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190423 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 223 Bullish NEWLOWS 20 MAXCP 37 MINCP 9 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 20 FASTUP 49 FASTDOWN 79 CPCROSSA 279 CPCROSSD 29 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 24 HIUPPCT 14 VHIP21 395 LOWACCUM 158 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 22 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/23/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTO .923 .923 .923 .923 .897 .871 JETS .9 .6 .8 .8 .8 .6 TRANSP .9 .8 .85 .85 .85 .8 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .941 ETFS .859 .859 .877 .877 .877 .859 NIFTY .859 .842 .842 .842 .877 .842 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .857 .857 .892 .892 .892 .821 DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .769 .846 .769 DOWJONES .833 .833 .8 .8 .833 .8 BONDFUND .825 .815 .864 .893 .912 .97 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 NASD-100 .791 .76 .781 .781 .812 .822 FIDSTKS .789 .751 .756 .762 .794 .772 SP500 .778 .723 .757 .753 .798 .816 SEMI .774 .756 .774 .783 .792 .81 SP-100 .771 .76 .75 .75 .782 .815 OILGAS .767 .76 .683 .739 .753 .732 HACKERS .761 .761 .666 .809 .761 .761 CHEM .75 .711 .73 .769 .788 .75 RUS-1000 .74 .677 .712 .712 .756 .776 COMPUTER .727 .681 .681 .681 .727 .681 UTILITY .725 .65 .7 .65 .75 .8 SOFTWARE .698 .666 .666 .65 .666 .65 GREEN .695 .695 .695 .695 .739 .739 INFRA .694 .694 .694 .722 .722 .75 CHINA .677 .661 .677 .694 .694 .677 INDEXES .672 .661 .666 .693 .704 .774 FINANCE .67 .579 .625 .761 .738 .59 EDU .666 .833 1 .833 .833 .833 ELECTRON .645 .639 .664 .677 .689 .696 REGBANKS .642 .428 .607 .785 .785 .428 MILITARY .633 .533 .566 .533 .633 .633 GUNS .588 .47 .588 .588 .647 .647 RETAIL .566 .509 .66 .641 .622 .66 GAMING .565 .521 .608 .565 .478 .521 INDMATER .556 .518 .556 .632 .632 .645 REIT .533 .418 .533 .459 .554 .716 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .588 .588 .588 .588 BIOTECH .48 .409 .412 .396 .524 .538 COMODITY .425 .425 .475 .475 .475 .5 FOOD .425 .425 .462 .444 .444 .481 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .142 HOSPITAL .217 .173 .086 .086 .13 .26 GOLD .163 .163 .244 .265 .326 .387 |
=============================================================================
4/22/2019 Peerless remains on its Buys
B4, B19, B15 and another Buy B4. The NYSE
A/D Line's uptrend is still intact. The Hourly DJI's DISI is also still in an
uptrend.
But the bullish seasonality of the Third Year in the 4-Year Presidential cycle
is being exhausted and these seasonal odds now slightly favor a 5% or more
decline to the lower band over the next six
weeks.
For the time being, the bullish 3rd-year in the 4-year Presidential cycle is still
working its magic on the stock market and the DJI. Clearly, politicians
and the FED want a strong market going into the Election year. As you can see
below, in most cases where the market takes off in these years before a
Presidential Election, the DJI rallies past March, at least, before declining
to the 3.5% lower band or falling 5% or more. But eventually it runs out of
steam. Below see that in these years - 1915, 1919, 1919...2015 - that:
there were 10 (red) cases where the DJI topped
out in April or May;
there were only 4 (blue) cases where the DJI
peaked in June or July
And in four more (green) the DJI's top was much later than
this.
DJI's First Major Peaks in the Bullish Third
Year of a Presidential Election
after February: 1915, 1919, 1923...2015
1915 4/30 17%
1919 6/6 8%
1923 3/20 18%
1927 10/4 9%
X 1931 Bear Mkt
1935 5/23 5%
1939 3/10 20%
1943 7/14 12%
X 1947 No rallly.
1951 5/4 8%
1955 9/23 10%
1959 8/3 9%
1963 10/29 6%
1967 5/8 7%
1971 4/28 7%
1975 5/15 5%
1979 4/10 6%
1983 6/17 7%
1987 4/7 10%
1991 10/12 5%
1995 3/18/96 5%
1999 5/13 5%
2003 2/10/04 7%
2007 7/17 8%
2011 5/12 8%
X 2015 no rally
? 2019
Even though their Closing Power uptrends have been
broken, DIA and SPY
are holding up well and are within striking distance of their highs. But there are
new signs that the overall market is weakening. Today, there were 22 more
new lows than new highs on the NASDAQ and the perccentage of all stocks
and ETFs above their 65-dma has fallen considerably in the last month and is
in its downtrend. See that in the DJI chart just below.
The DJI and much of the market could be stalling out. If we measure volatility
as the daily percent change in the DJI, then Volatily has returned to the levels
last seen
in mid-September last year about two weeks before Peerless gave a classic Sell S9,
Volume. Right now, Volume - particularly Up Volume - seems too low to bring
a breakout by the DJI to new highs that will match the QQQ and SOXL's new highs.
We need somthing to jump-start a rally here. My guess is that Trump will reach
an agreement with China in the trade talks - which would seem to be a good reason
to continue to hold long CHAU - or the FED will start talking about lowering interest
rates unless Crude Oil keeps rallying like it did today..
QQQ's new high is great. We are still long it. But its strength may not lift
the DJI.
We should appreciate that the QQQ often tops out after the DJI does. In fact, in
2000 and 2015, the QQQ peaked a full two months after the DJI did. So, let's keep
holding QQQ but avoid new positions in DIA or SPY.
QQQ Peaks after The DJIA.
Date
of QQQ on
Date of
QQQ on
DJI Peak Day of DJI's QQQ's
Day of QQQ's
Peak
Peak Peak
-----------------------------------------------------------
1/14/2000 93.38
3/24/2000 117.56
10/9/2007 53.38
10/31/2007 55.03
5/19/2015 109.94
7/20/2015 113.90
Charts 4/22/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/22/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-22/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-22/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/22/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.07 -.49 263.81 18.9% Bearish BLUE .217 -------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 375.17 -4.9 375.46 -59% Bullish RED .03 -.126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.27 .25 289.97 1.9% Bearish BLUE .205 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 187.92 .53 185.86 56% Bearish BLUE .147 .065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.6 -1.14 357.44 -46.9% Bearish RED .18 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.23 -.41 157.17 -78.1% Bearish RED .112 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.49 -.58 68.6 -75.1% Bearish RED .22 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.33 -1.8 30.03 -274.1% Bearish RED -.031 -.06 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 189.28 .08 164.91 582.4% ------- BLUE .121 .604 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 161.44 1.06 154.37 224.6% Bearish BLUE .218 .459 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.59 .05 110.49 -298.7% Bearish -----.12 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.37 0 121.6 -60.4% Bearish RED -.19 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.97 .24 21.44 120.3% ------- BLUE .059 0 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190422 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 98 NEWLOWS 22 MAXCP 18 MINCP 32 TTTNH 10 TTTNL 69 FASTUP 36 FASTDOWN 114 CPCROSSA 55 CPCROSSD 89 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 9 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 14 LOWACCUM 150 REDSELL 58 AUGSELS7 42 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/22/19 Bullish = 37 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTO .923 .923 .923 .897 .871 .897 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .941 .882 ETFS .859 .877 .877 .877 .859 .859 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 INSURANC .857 .892 .892 .892 .821 .821 DJI-13 .846 .769 .769 .846 .846 .769 NIFTY .842 .842 .842 .877 .842 .859 DOWJONES .833 .8 .8 .833 .833 .833 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ EDU .833 1 .833 .833 .833 .833 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 BONDFUND .815 .864 .893 .912 .961 .97 TRANSP .8 .85 .85 .85 .8 .85 HACKERS .761 .666 .809 .761 .761 .809 NASD-100 .76 .781 .781 .812 .822 .833 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ OILGAS .758 .68 .737 .751 .744 .773 SEMI .756 .774 .783 .792 .81 .819 SP-100 .755 .744 .744 .776 .808 .797 FIDSTKS .751 .756 .762 .794 .778 .794 CHEM .725 .745 .784 .803 .784 .764 SP500 .723 .757 .753 .798 .82 .843 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GREEN .695 .695 .695 .739 .739 .739 INFRA .694 .694 .722 .722 .777 .694 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .727 .681 .681 RUS-1000 .677 .712 .711 .757 .783 .802 SOFTWARE .666 .666 .65 .666 .65 .682 CHINA .661 .677 .694 .694 .677 .762 INDEXES .661 .666 .693 .704 .779 .779 UTILITY .65 .7 .65 .75 .8 .825 ELECTRON .639 .664 .677 .689 .696 .715 JETS .6 .8 .8 .8 .6 .7 FINANCE .579 .625 .761 .738 .59 .704 MILITARY .533 .566 .533 .633 .633 .6 BEVERAGE .529 .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 GAMING .521 .608 .565 .478 .521 .478 INDMATER .518 .556 .632 .632 .658 .645 RETAIL .509 .66 .641 .622 .66 .641 =============================================================================================== GUNS .47 .588 .588 .647 .647 .588 REGBANKS .428 .607 .785 .785 .428 .75 COMODITY .425 .475 .475 .475 .5 .5 FOOD .425 .462 .444 .444 .481 .481 REIT .418 .533 .459 .554 .722 .77 BIOTECH .408 .414 .397 .525 .539 .591 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .142 .142 HOSPITAL .173 .086 .086 .13 .26 .173 GOLD .163 .244 .265 .326 .387 .367 |
=========================================================================
4/18/2019 Peerless remains on a Buy.
The NYSE A/D Line remains is an uptrend.
SOXL and QQQ have made nominal new 12-month highs, but the SP-500
(SPY) and DJI (DIA) have not. But the Hourly DJI and DISI lines remain
in uptrends. Certaintly, the DJI could breakout here above 27000, but
daily volume seems too low to permit a reliable breakout.
The Closing Powers are still lagging the price action. The break in the DIA and
SPY Closing Power uptrends prompted me last night to suggest selling them today
while we wait to see if their Closing Powers and prices can achieve new highs.
That may be a mistake in that it is strong openings that is moving the market
now, given the new high made by the Dollar and the appeal of US stocks overseas
because of that. In addition, the broader bullish seasonality of the 3rd year in the
four-year Presidential cycle remains a powerful stimulant. Since 1968, the DJI
has risen on average the 2.1% over the next month, 4.2% over two months and
6% over the next three months.
We will continue to hold long QQQ and CHAU. Next week
we may buy back
DIA and SPY if their Closing Powers show strength on Monday and surpass
their 21-dma.
Charts 4/18/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/18/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-18/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-18/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/18/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 265.56 1.03 264.07 78.9% ------- BLUE .245 ---- +++++ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 380.07 2.55 379.64 131.5% Bullish BLUE .017 -.122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.02 .57 290.16 31.3% Bearish RED .223 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 187.39 .24 185.83 63.4% Bearish RED .19 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.74 .69 357.95 6.2% ------- BLUE .214 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.64 -.46 157.68 -46.8% Bearish RED .142 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.07 -.27 69.53 173.2% ------- RED .239 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.13 -.54 29.99 -11.6% Bearish RED .01 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 189.2 .36 168.5 793.1% ------- BLUE .151 .499 +++++ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 160.38 1.28 154.39 290% ------- BLUE .241 .392 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.54 -.6 111.05 -335.8% Bearish RED -.065 -.095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.01 -.24 17.96 11.1% ------- RED -.063 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.13 .14 25.96 21.2% Bearish ---- .16 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.73 -.06 21.45 88.2% ------- ---- .063 -.012 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190418 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 132 Bullish NEWLOWS 23 MAXCP 15 MINCP 30 TTTNH 11 TTTNL 103 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 130 CPCROSSA 66 CPCROSSD 63 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 9 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 12 VHIP21 391 LOWACCUM 159 REDSELL 57 AUGSELS7 37 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/18/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 1 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 AUTO .923 .923 .897 .871 .897 .82 INSURANC .892 .892 .892 .821 .821 .821 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .941 .882 .882 ETFS .877 .877 .877 .859 .859 .859 BONDFUND .864 .893 .912 .961 .97 .98 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 TRANSP .85 .85 .85 .8 .85 .9 NIFTY .842 .842 .877 .842 .859 .877 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .705 DOWJONES .8 .8 .833 .833 .833 .866 JETS .8 .8 .8 .6 .7 .8 NASD-100 .781 .781 .812 .822 .833 .833 SEMI .774 .783 .792 .81 .819 .81 DJI-13 .769 .769 .846 .846 .769 .846 SP500 .757 .753 .798 .82 .845 .812 FIDSTKS .756 .762 .794 .778 .794 .794 SP-100 .744 .744 .776 .808 .808 .829 CHEM .73 .769 .788 .769 .788 .673 RUS-1000 .712 .711 .756 .785 .806 .776 UTILITY .7 .65 .75 .8 .825 .825 GREEN .695 .695 .739 .739 .739 .739 INFRA .694 .722 .722 .777 .694 .694 COMPUTER .681 .681 .727 .681 .681 .681 OILGAS .68 .737 .751 .744 .773 .751 CHINA .677 .694 .694 .677 .762 .728 HACKERS .666 .809 .761 .761 .809 .761 SOFTWARE .666 .65 .666 .65 .682 .714 ELECTRON .664 .677 .689 .696 .715 .715 INDEXES .664 .691 .702 .778 .778 .794 RETAIL .66 .641 .622 .66 .641 .584 FINANCE .625 .761 .738 .59 .704 .579 GAMING .608 .565 .478 .521 .478 .478 REGBANKS .607 .785 .785 .428 .75 .535 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .588 .588 .588 .529 GUNS .588 .588 .647 .647 .588 .588 MILITARY .566 .533 .633 .633 .6 .6 INDMATER .556 .632 .632 .658 .645 .62 REIT .533 .459 .554 .722 .77 .75 ================================================================================================ COMODITY .475 .475 .475 .5 .5 .475 FOOD .462 .444 .444 .481 .481 .462 BIG17 .422 .4 .466 .511 .577 .622 BIOTECH .411 .397 .525 .539 .591 .599 COAL .285 .285 .285 .142 .142 .142 GOLD .244 .265 .326 .387 .367 .387 HOSPITAL .086 .086 .13 .26 .173 .173 |
==========================================================================
4/17/2019 We have no new Peerless
Sells. But the Closing Powers for DIA and SPY
have more decisively broken their uptrends. They may still be able to breakout
past the well-tested flat resistance just above, but I would expect more profit-taking
now that Professionals do not seem to be holding up prices. Understand the tendency
for holders of stocks to sell at the old highs after such a deep decline as we had from
October to December. Right now volume does not appear high enough to be able
to eat up the overhead supply of stock. So, take
profits in DIA and SPY. I would
continue to hold QQQ and CHAU. Perhaps, the redacted
Mueller Report's release
tomorrow will not amount to anything. But either way, taking profits near the old
highs
seems reasonable. Remember, I have pointed out that a rising NYSE A/D Line does
not guarantee higher prices for DIA and SPY, though it seems to aid the NASDAQ and
QQQ a while longer. Let's be patient and wait for better trading opportunities to
take
shape.
Charts 4/17/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/17/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-17/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-17/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/17/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.53 0 261.4 55.7% Bearish RED .192 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 377.52 -4.2 370.16 168% Bullish RED -.002 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 289.45 -.71 288.21 20% Bearish RED .176 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 187.15 .65 185.03 45.2% ------- RED .176 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.05 -2.66 355.3 11.2% Bearish RED .163 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.1 -1.44 157.11 -38.4% Bearish RED .101 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.34 -.1 66.69 233.5% Bearish RED .207 .119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 188.84 8.22 161.77 795.7% ------- RED .126 .624 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 159.1 2.49 151.38 226.6% ------- RED .188 .399 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.14 -4.25 111.9 -390.7% Bearish RED -.08 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.28 -.23 121.95 -133.3% Bearish RED -.124 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.25 -.05 17.97 63.8% Bullish RED -.007 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.99 -.02 26.02 9.6% Bearish ---- .141 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.79 .1 21.35 32.5% Bullish ---- .075 -.021 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190417 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 105 NEWLOWS 26 MAXCP 10 MINCP 48 TTTNH 14 TTTNL 145 FASTUP 40 FASTDOWN 125 CPCROSSA 25 CPCROSSD 180 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 19 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 4 HIUPPCT 13 LOWACCUM 157 REDSELL 56 AUGSELS7 41 TRAPDOOR 12 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/17/19A Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AUTO .923 .897 .871 .897 .82 .846 BONDFUND .893 .912 .961 .97 .98 .97 INSURANC .892 .892 .821 .821 .821 .75 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .941 .882 .882 .882 ETFS .877 .877 .859 .859 .859 .912 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 TRANSP .85 .85 .8 .85 .9 .7 NIFTY .842 .877 .842 .859 .877 .842 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 .823 HACKERS .809 .761 .761 .809 .761 .714 DOWJONES .8 .833 .833 .833 .866 .866 JETS .8 .8 .6 .7 .8 .6 REGBANKS .785 .785 .428 .75 .535 .5 SEMI .783 .792 .81 .819 .819 .855 NASD-100 .781 .812 .822 .833 .833 .854 CHEM .769 .788 .769 .788 .711 .673 DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .769 .846 .846 FIDSTKS .762 .794 .778 .794 .789 .8 FINANCE .761 .738 .59 .704 .579 .556 SP500 .753 .798 .82 .845 .814 .818 SP-100 .744 .776 .808 .808 .829 .829 OILGAS .737 .751 .744 .773 .751 .78 INFRA .722 .722 .777 .694 .694 .722 RUS-1000 .711 .756 .783 .807 .781 .77 GREEN .695 .739 .739 .739 .739 .739 CHINA .694 .694 .677 .762 .728 .745 INDEXES .691 .702 .778 .778 .789 .816 ELECTRON .683 .696 .702 .721 .727 .734 COMPUTER .681 .727 .681 .681 .681 .636 SOFTWARE .65 .666 .65 .682 .714 .714 UTILITY .65 .75 .8 .825 .85 .825 RETAIL .641 .622 .66 .641 .584 .641 INDMATER .632 .632 .658 .645 .632 .67 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 GUNS .588 .647 .647 .588 .588 .529 GAMING .565 .478 .521 .478 .434 .478 MILITARY .533 .633 .633 .6 .6 .466 =============================================================================================== COMODITY .475 .475 .5 .5 .475 .625 REIT .459 .554 .722 .77 .756 .79 FOOD .444 .444 .481 .481 .462 .574 BIG17 .422 .488 .533 .6 .644 .644 BIOTECH .396 .527 .54 .592 .611 .668 COAL .285 .285 .142 .142 .142 .285 GOLD .28 .34 .4 .38 .4 .58 HOSPITAL .086 .13 .26 .173 .173 .26 |
========================================================================
4/16/2019 The Peerless Buys remain
in effect. The NYSE A/D Line's uptrend is
intact.
So, is the Hourly DJI's DISI's.
Given the bullish seasonality, I believe
the DJI will rise to 27000 soon. Based on the behavior of the DJI on the
years before a Presidential Election Year since 1967, the odds of the DJI rallying
over the next month are 75% and the average DJI gain is 2.1%. That should
take us above 27000.
Still, we noticed that the Closing Powers for DIA and SPY did today drop slightly below
their 21-dma, thereby giving them a "bearish" designation. My Closing Power
trading guidelines would normally have us take profits in them because of this. But
perhaps, we should require a little more Closing Power weakness here to sell
them. The weakness here was minor, rather than decisive. The DJI is acting like
it is still eating up the overhead supply of stock, and has not yet decisively turned back
down.
The Peerless Accumulation Index (IP21) did fall
further into negative territory.
So, a DJI rally now to the upper 3% band could bring a Sell S12. But the bullish
seasonality reduces the chances of that. And note, too, that the current IP21 for
DIA is quite positive. So, let's not sell
yet.
QQQ's leveraged equivalent remains on its optimized
Buy
and shows only bullish notations to right of TigerSoft chart.
QQQ's Closing Power is still uptrending. In addition,
the much more speculative
3x Semi-Conductors ETF - SOXL - rose quite impressively today. If the market
were about to top out, I would expect to see weakness here, quite likely, a
head/shoulders top in SOXL, Closing Power weakness, a top in stocks like TXN.
Instead, SOXL's Closing Power jumped upwards. Our Tiger A/D Line for more
than 130 semi-conductors made another new 12-month high today.
.
So, let's hold a little longer: DIA, SPY, QQQ and the 2x Chinese ETF - CHAU.
"China surprise: China's economy is showing renewed signs of
life in 2019.
The world's second-biggest economy grew slightly more than expected in the first quarter
of 2019, official data showed Wednesday. It expanded by 6.4% compared to a year ago,
beating economists' forecasts of 6.3%." (Yahoo financial news)
Charts 4/16/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/16/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-16/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-16/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/16/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.53 .72 261.6 57.5% Bearish RED .164 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 381.72 6.26 364.94 170.5% Bullish BLUE .001 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.16 .19 288.29 49.3% Bearish RED .176 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 186.5 .64 185.47 54.5% ------- ---- .175 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.71 .27 354.25 93.8% Bearish RED .162 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.54 .37 157.31 74.6% Bearish RED .091 -.005 (weak) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.44 .84 66.16 310% Bearish BLUE .162 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 180.62 15.71 162.17 690.1% ------- BLUE .154 .567 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 156.61 2.24 152.13 250.9% ------- BLUE .157 .405 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.39 -1.1 113.84 -143.3% Bearish RED .002 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 120.51 -1.09 123.53 -107.8% Bearish BLUE-.145 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.3 .4 18.02 111.4% ------- BLUE-.003 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.01 .06 25.94 5.8% Bearish ---- .207 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.69 .25 21.65 65.2% Bullish BLUE .072 -.023 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190416 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 175 Bullish NEWLOWS 17 MAXCP 31 MINCP 24 TTTNH 18 TTTNL 77 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 79 CPCROSSA 68 CPCROSSD 136 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 386 LOWACCUM 154 REDSELL 51 AUGSELS7 41 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 2 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/16/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .912 .961 .97 .98 .97 .97 AUTO .897 .871 .897 .82 .846 .794 INSURANC .892 .821 .821 .821 .75 .678 HOMEBLDG .882 .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 ETFS .877 .859 .859 .859 .912 .894 NIFTY .877 .842 .859 .877 .842 .842 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 TRANSP .85 .8 .85 .9 .75 .75 DJI-13 .846 .846 .769 .846 .846 .846 DOWJONES .833 .833 .833 .866 .866 .866 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .764 .823 .823 NASD-100 .812 .822 .833 .833 .854 .833 JETS .8 .6 .7 .8 .6 .6 SP500 .798 .82 .845 .814 .824 .784 FIDSTKS .794 .778 .794 .789 .8 .778 SEMI .794 .812 .821 .821 .857 .821 CHEM .788 .769 .788 .711 .692 .615 REGBANKS .785 .428 .75 .535 .5 .178 SP-100 .776 .808 .808 .829 .829 .797 HACKERS .761 .761 .809 .761 .714 .761 RUS-1000 .756 .783 .806 .782 .777 .736 UTILITY .75 .8 .825 .85 .85 .825 OILGAS .746 .739 .767 .746 .774 .746 GREEN .739 .739 .739 .739 .739 .695 FINANCE .738 .59 .704 .579 .568 .488 COMPUTER .727 .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 INFRA .722 .777 .694 .694 .722 .694 INDEXES .702 .778 .778 .789 .816 .8 ELECTRON .696 .702 .721 .727 .734 .702 CHINA .694 .677 .762 .728 .745 .762 SOFTWARE .666 .65 .682 .714 .714 .714 GUNS .647 .647 .588 .588 .588 .529 MILITARY .633 .633 .6 .6 .5 .466 INDMATER .632 .658 .645 .632 .683 .645 RETAIL .622 .66 .641 .584 .641 .603 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .588 .529 .529 .529 REIT .554 .722 .77 .756 .817 .736 BIOTECH .524 .54 .592 .611 .668 .63 ================================================================================================ BIG17 .488 .533 .6 .644 .644 .577 GAMING .478 .521 .478 .434 .478 .391 COMODITY .475 .5 .5 .475 .625 .5 FOOD .444 .481 .481 .462 .574 .481 GOLD .34 .4 .38 .4 .6 .6 COAL .285 .142 .142 .142 .285 .142 HOSPITAL .13 .26 .173 .173 .26 .217 |
====================================================================
4/15/2019 The Peerless Buys
remain in effect. The NYSE A/D Line's uptrend is
intact. So, is the Hourly DJI's DISI's. And, so are the Closing Powers'
It still looks like the DJI will make a nominal new high above 27000. The
DJI, SPY and QQQ keep climbing towards their peaks of last September
and October.
As long as interest rates stay at the current level and the uptrend-lines are not
violated, I think, we have to stay long. But once these uptrends break, there
will probably be a wave of profit-taking which we will have to join in on. So, it's
up now
to the market's boosters to keep the rally going. Trump's appeals for lower interest
rates show that he is well aware that the stimulation from the big corporate tax cuts
is probably losing its bullish lifting powers for the economy as a whole as many
corporations (like Apple) put more of their new untaxed moneys to work in buy-backs,
buy-outs and overseas investments rather than in domestic capital projects. The
FED's
quick reversal from hawkish to dovish in December shows that Fed Chairman
Powell now sees the politcal and economic risk of letting the bull market stall out.
So, the 1927 scenario, where there is a Summer tax cut, could play out this year.
I would think that will bring a big spike in prices.
The Peerless DJI's IP21 indicator has fallen back and now
stands at only .01. If the
DJI closes near 27000 with the IP21 negative, we could get a Sell S12, though
April S12s in this the year before a Presidential Election are very rare. (Only
two since 1929, namely 4/19/1967 which lost 1% and 4/6/1979 which gained
5.4%).
Bernie Sanders was accorded an hour of time in a Fox Town Hall meeting in
Bethlehem
PA this afternnoon. His opposition to the tax cuts got lots of applause. I do
not know why
Fox gave him so much publicity unless Republicans feel that he will be the most
easily beaten Democratic Presidential candidate assuming the stock market and the
economy are very strong for the next 18 months, as per the 1927 scenario.
Charts 4/15/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/15/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-15/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-15/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/15/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 263.81 -.26 261.51 11.2% Bearish RED .197 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 375.46 -4.18 369.04 12.6% ------- RED .04 -.084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 289.97 -.19 287.31 20.4% Bearish RED .201 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.86 .03 184.48 19.7% ------- ---- .178 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.44 -.51 351.05 34.8% ------- RED .187 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.17 -.51 155.2 1.6% Bearish RED .094 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 68.6 -.93 65.27 149.6% Bearish RED .147 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.03 .04 29.55 -94.3% Bearish BLUE -.033 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 164.91 -3.59 158.11 39.3% ------- RED .09 .444 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 154.37 -.02 148.97 105.5% ------- RED .149 .449 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.49 -.56 112.6 -175.1% Bearish RED .023 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.6 -.23 123.15 -37.1% ------- BLUE-.197 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.9 -.06 17.9 -69.4% Bullish ---- -.003 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.44 -.01 21.41 14% ------- ---- .084 -.038 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190415 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 169 NEWLOWS 18 MAXCP 33 MINCP 22 TTTNH 14 TTTNL 47 FASTUP 36 FASTDOWN 95 CPCROSSA 53 CPCROSSD 144 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 381 LOWACCUM 156 REDSELL 51 AUGSELS7 46 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/15/19 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .97 .98 .97 .97 .961 HOMEBLDG .941 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 AUTO .871 .897 .82 .846 .794 .871 ETFS .859 .859 .859 .912 .894 .894 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 DJI-13 .846 .769 .846 .846 .846 .846 NIFTY .842 .859 .877 .842 .842 .877 DOWJONES .833 .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 .833 SOLAR .823 .823 .764 .823 .823 .823 NASD-100 .822 .833 .833 .854 .833 .854 INSURANC .821 .821 .821 .75 .678 .821 SP500 .82 .845 .814 .824 .786 .853 SEMI .812 .821 .821 .857 .83 .848 SP-100 .808 .808 .829 .829 .797 .84 UTILITY .8 .825 .85 .85 .825 .875 TRANSP .8 .85 .9 .75 .75 .75 RUS-1000 .783 .806 .781 .778 .74 .81 FIDSTKS .778 .794 .789 .8 .778 .827 INDEXES .778 .778 .789 .816 .8 .794 INFRA .777 .694 .694 .722 .694 .888 CHEM .769 .788 .711 .692 .653 .692 HACKERS .761 .809 .761 .714 .761 .761 GREEN .739 .739 .739 .739 .695 .695 OILGAS .739 .767 .746 .774 .753 .781 REIT .722 .77 .756 .817 .736 .81 ELECTRON .702 .721 .727 .734 .708 .753 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 .727 CHINA .677 .762 .728 .745 .762 .762 RETAIL .66 .641 .584 .641 .603 .66 INDMATER .658 .645 .632 .683 .658 .772 SOFTWARE .65 .682 .714 .714 .714 .698 GUNS .647 .588 .588 .588 .529 .647 MILITARY .633 .6 .6 .5 .466 .633 JETS .6 .7 .8 .6 .6 .6 FINANCE .59 .704 .579 .568 .511 .602 BEVERAGE .588 .588 .529 .529 .529 .529 BIOTECH .538 .592 .611 .668 .635 .673 BIG17 .533 .6 .644 .644 .577 .688 GAMING .521 .478 .434 .478 .391 .565 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMODITY .5 .5 .475 .625 .55 .525 FOOD .481 .481 .462 .574 .518 .481 REGBANKS .428 .75 .535 .5 .214 .357 GOLD .4 .38 .4 .6 .66 .58 HOSPITAL .26 .173 .173 .26 .217 .217 COAL .142 .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 |
========================================================================
4/12/2019 Once again, there
has been no Peerless Sell. The NYSE A/D Line is in a
powerful uptrend and the Closing Powers are rated "bullish" even though
they are not making new highs. Before a significant top occurs, I would
think we will see either an A/D Line non-confirmation, a Sell S9, a Sell S12,
Sell S4, a head/shoulders pattern in the DJI or the P-I will turn negative after
going 100 straight days in positive territory. If history repeats, SPY's Closing
Power will break its 21-dma and QQQ's price-uptrend will also be broken
at the next significant top. So far, none of these have taken place.
QQQ is not yet at resistance. Closing
Power is still rated "bullish".
But here is another consideration. The
1976 Peerless chart reminds us that a
strong A/D line can still occur at a top if the DJI stalls out at well-tested
resistance. When the DJI reaches 26900-27000 we will want to watch for this
scenario.
The seasonality of the year before a Presidential Election is
especially bullish
from April to June. The yearly average gain in the DJI in these 3rd years is
about 15%. So far, 2019 is up 13.5%. 26900 would achieve a 15% gain.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At this time, I remain optimistic. There
are four historical parallels with
a Republican in the White House in the 3rd year of the 4-yr Presidential
cycle that we might want to consider worthy of studying now..
1927 when the Republican Coolidge was pursuing
all the same economic
policies Trump has emphasized with one exception (the huge military budget).
In the Summer of 1927, the FED cut the Discount Rate to 3 1/2% even
as the DJI was making all-time highs. This brought about a wild, 2 year
speculative boom in stocks. With the Dollar strong and Trump wanting
a boost for his Election chances, I would suggest a drop in rates this
Summer is a possibility, though it may be saved for the Fall or even next
year.
1955 when the Republican Eisenhower's
stock market was fortunate enough
to be boosted by interest rates well below 4%. Lifted by military spending
and the new interstate Highway program, the market in 1955 rallied
until September when it fell back 10% in the aftermath of Eisenhower's
sudden heart attack. A month and a half later is was rising again..
1971 when the Republican Nixon became very
concerned about Inflation
and suddenly took away all Gold backing for the Dollar and imposed Price
and Wage controls for several months. Before the public announcement,
the P-Indicator which had been positive for more than 5 straight months suddenly
turned negative, thereby producing a Peerless Sell S19. Soon a classic
head/shoulders
top was formed. We might guess that the market will behave something like this
if President Trump were suddenly to start a trade war with Europe or pull some
other surprise that Wall Street does not like.
1987 when the Republican Reagan saw a newly appointed
Greenspan as
Fed Chairman get nervous about rising Gold prices and a falling Dollar.
If history were to repeat as in 1987, we would see a 20% advance from
a June breakout which would then be followed by a Sell S4 when the IP21
drops below its 21-dma.
=====================================================
I would not yet suggest selling as the old highs are
approached. We should get a
a little closer to making a nominal closing high at 27000. The reason for selling
there
would simply be that normal profit-taking should be expected after a nearly 20%
rally back to expected resistance. I admit also to being concerned about the low
volume and the relatively small number of new highs and MAXCPs. In the past when
the previous highs were being approached, these two numbers were much greater. And
as you can see, the Closing Powers have made no gains for several weeks. Most
of the aggressive buying seems to be occurring in the big ETFs and, perhaps, a dozen
high volume techs stocks which we include in our "NIFTY" list.
When you look back at the significant tops in SPY
since 1994. Almost always, the
Closing Power lags on last high and then breaks decisively and widely below the
Closing Power's 2-day ma, thereby showing that Professionals are no longer
supporting the appearance of an advance. So far SPY's Closing Power shows
that Professionals are supporting the many higher openings. We will have be alert
if this pattern changes. Example 1998.
Charts 4/12/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/12/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-12/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-12/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/12/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.07 2.67 263.22 -1.7% ------- BLUE .207 ----- ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 379.64 9.48 374.52 -164.3% Bullish BLUE .081 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 290.16 1.95 288.79 27.6% ------- BLUE .185 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.83 .8 185.13 31.6% ------- ---- .17 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 357.95 2.65 354.97 41.8% ------- BLUE .153 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.68 .57 157.12 9.6% Bearish RED .074 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.53 2.84 66.6 222.6% Bearish BLUE .161 .149 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 168.5 6.73 163.63 186.8% ------- BLUE .119 .527 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 154.39 3.01 151.17 166.3% ------- BLUE .152 .474 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.05 -.85 114.44 -170.9% Bearish RED .06 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.96 -.01 18.15 -8.3% Bullish RED -.035 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.38 .72 8.23 176.5% Bearish --- -.054 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.96 -.06 25.97 -19.2% Bearish ---- .041 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.45 .1 21.38 60.8% Bullish RED .126 -.045 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190412 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 264 Bullish NEWLOWS 26 MAXCP 38 MINCP 26 TTTNH 10 TTTNL 46 FASTUP 32 FASTDOWN 73 CPCROSSA 120 CPCROSSD 224 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 14 HIGHIP21 2 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 386 LOWACCUM 160 REDSELL 49 AUGSELS7 40 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/12/19 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .98 .97 .97 .961 .97 AUTO .897 .82 .846 .794 .846 .794 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 ETFS .859 .859 .912 .894 .894 .894 NIFTY .859 .877 .842 .842 .877 .894 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 .857 TRANSP .85 .9 .75 .75 .75 .85 SP500 .845 .814 .824 .786 .851 .855 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 .9 EDU .833 .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 NASD-100 .833 .833 .854 .833 .854 .854 UTILITY .825 .85 .85 .825 .875 .85 SOLAR .823 .764 .823 .823 .823 .823 INSURANC .821 .821 .75 .678 .821 .785 SEMI .821 .821 .857 .83 .848 .839 HACKERS .809 .761 .714 .761 .761 .761 SP-100 .808 .829 .829 .797 .84 .861 RUS-1000 .806 .781 .777 .741 .81 .81 FIDSTKS .794 .783 .794 .772 .827 .827 CHEM .788 .711 .692 .653 .711 .692 INDEXES .772 .789 .816 .8 .794 .789 REIT .77 .756 .817 .736 .81 .851 DJI-13 .769 .846 .846 .846 .846 .923 OILGAS .767 .746 .774 .753 .781 .767 CHINA .762 .728 .745 .762 .762 .745 REGBANKS .75 .535 .5 .214 .392 .464 GREEN .739 .739 .739 .695 .695 .739 ELECTRON .721 .727 .734 .708 .753 .74 FINANCE .704 .579 .568 .511 .602 .613 JETS .7 .8 .6 .6 .6 .6 INFRA .694 .694 .722 .694 .888 .833 SOFTWARE .682 .714 .714 .714 .698 .698 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .681 .727 .727 INDMATER .645 .632 .683 .658 .772 .721 RETAIL .641 .584 .641 .603 .66 .679 BIG17 .6 .644 .644 .577 .688 .688 MILITARY .6 .6 .5 .466 .633 .633 BIOTECH .589 .608 .665 .633 .673 .687 BEVERAGE .588 .529 .529 .529 .529 .529 GUNS .588 .588 .588 .529 .647 .529 COMODITY .512 .487 .634 .56 .536 .512 FOOD .5 .482 .589 .535 .5 .5 GAMING .478 .434 .478 .391 .565 .521 GOLD .38 .4 .6 .66 .56 .44 HOSPITAL .173 .173 .26 .217 .217 .26 COAL .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 |
========================================================================
4/11/2019 Stay bulllish. The operative Peerless Buy B4s, B18
and B15 signals remain
in effect. The Dollar is strong. No rate
hikes can easily be justified. A breakout
is still a possibility. We have another three months of strong seasonal winds
uplifting the market.
The key NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend. The Closing Powers are still in
uptrends. So is the Hourly DJI's OBV-DISI. The ratio of new highs to new lows
is more than 10:1. (See Table 2 below). And there are very, very few bearish
MINCPs.
I understand the temptation is strong to take profits now that last year's highs have
almost been reached. But most often nominal new highs, at the least, are achieved
if this were a trading range recovery. But politics
now rule, I think. It is vital
for the Republicans and for Trump to keep the rally going. It is also likely that
the
move upwards now is not over because of the extraordinary bullishness of the April
-June period in the year before a Presidential Election year.
Another thing, when interest rates were comparably low in the early and mid-1950s,
the DJI did not peak and fall 20% until interest rates went over 4% and the DJI did not
fall 10% until Eisenhower had a heart attack in September 1955 and then again in 1956
when the Suez Canal was seized by the British, French and Israeilis against
Eisenhower's wishes in a Presidential Election Year. In 1955, the year before the
Presidential Election Year, the DJI did very well until September.
I've also compared our period now with 1927, in that just like President Coolidge,
President Trump has built his economic program on much lower taxes, de-regulation
and tariffs. In 1927, the FED cut rates as the DJI was breaking out in the Summer
That unleashed a wildly specilative market for two more years. You would not have
wanted to sell at any time in 1927!
Charts 4/11/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/11/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-11/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/April-11/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/11/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.4 -.2 264.16 -45.3% ------- RED .202 ----- ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 370.16 5.22 391.93 -338.8% Bullish BLUE-.004 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.21 -.08 288.57 17.9% ------- RED .149 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.03 -.44 184.66 35.7% ------- RED .118 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.3 1.05 354.99 43% ------- BLUE .145 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.11 -.2 157.38 38% Bearish RED .051 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.69 .53 66.58 40.8% Bearish BLUE .104 .11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.2 -.51 30.9 -122.8% Bearish RED -.151 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 161.77 -.4 162.46 91.3% ------- RED .067 .476 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 151.38 -.75 149.38 126.5% ------- RED .123 .448 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.9 -1.94 114.93 -49.7% Bearish RED .083 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.95 -1.58 121.98 -6.5% Bearish RED -.203 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.97 -.05 17.99 111.6% ------- --- -.011 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.35 -.3 21.19 91.5% Bullish RED .152 -.035 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-11 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 170 Bullish >10:1 compared to new lows. NEWLOWS 16 MAXCP 28 MINCP 16 TTTNH 12 TTTNL 33 FASTUP 40 FASTDOWN 44 CPCROSSA 63 CPCROSSD 130 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 5 ACCUMVER 13 HIGHIP21 1 HIUPPCT 12 VHIP21 36 LOWACCUM 146 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 29 TRAPDOOR 14 |
TABLE 3: RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/11/19 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .97 .97 .961 .97 .97 TRANSP .9 .75 .75 .75 .85 .85 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 NIFTY .877 .842 .842 .877 .894 .877 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .9 .9 ^^^^^ ETFS .859 .912 .894 .894 .894 .859 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .714 .857 .857 .857 UTILITY .85 .85 .825 .875 .85 .825 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .846 .923 .923 EDU .833 .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 NASD-100 .833 .854 .833 .854 .854 .854 ^^^^^ SP-100 .829 .829 .797 .84 .861 .851 INSURANC .821 .75 .678 .821 .785 .785 SEMI .821 .857 .83 .848 .848 .839 AUTO .82 .846 .794 .846 .82 .871 SP500 .814 .824 .786 .851 .861 .828 ^^^^^ JETS .8 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 INDEXES .789 .816 .8 .794 .789 .789 FIDSTKS .783 .794 .772 .827 .832 .821 RUS-1000 .781 .777 .74 .811 .82 .79 SOLAR .764 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 HACKERS .761 .714 .761 .761 .809 .714 REIT .756 .817 .736 .81 .858 .804 OILGAS .746 .774 .753 .781 .774 .69 GREEN .739 .739 .695 .695 .739 .652 CHINA .728 .745 .762 .762 .745 .745 ELECTRON .727 .734 .708 .753 .746 .727 CHEM .725 .705 .666 .725 .725 .666 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .714 .698 .714 .714 INFRA .694 .722 .694 .888 .861 .833 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .727 .772 .681 BIG17 .644 .644 .577 .688 .688 .644 INDMATER .632 .683 .658 .772 .721 .696 BIOTECH .605 .665 .633 .673 .69 .654 MILITARY .6 .5 .466 .633 .633 .6 GUNS .588 .588 .529 .647 .529 .529 RETAIL .584 .641 .603 .66 .679 .716 FINANCE .579 .568 .511 .602 .636 .59 REGBANKS .535 .5 .214 .392 .464 .285 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .529 .529 .529 .588 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMODITY .487 .634 .56 .536 .512 .536 FOOD .482 .589 .535 .5 .5 .517 GAMING .434 .478 .391 .565 .565 .434 GOLD .4 .6 .66 .56 .46 .46 HOSPITAL .173 .26 .217 .217 .26 .217 COAL .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 |
=======================================================================
4/10/2019 The operative Peerless Buy B4s, B18 and B15
signals remain in effect.
As long as the NYSE AD Line stays in its uptrend, there would seem
to
be little risk in the market, unless Powell again starts talking of rises in rates
for this year. The December declines seems to have taught him
to be more
prudent in what he says. And the bullish seasonal forces are there for a
reason: namely, to remind us how politics will go a long way in shaping
bullish economic policies this year. But we should be careful of DIA given
BA's downside potential.
If Boeing breaks to new low below 360, its weakness may continue to hurt the DIA and
we will need to avail ourselves of other investments than DIA and we will start to watch
the TigerSoft DJI-29 (the TigerSoft Index of DJIA without Boeing because of its
extraordinarily
high weighting in the DJI. Let me suggest buying CHAU
(2x leveraged Chinese stocks).
Note CHAU's very high IP21 and very positive ITRS (relative strength)
Close out DIA if BA breaks down. Continue to hold SPY and DIA so long as their
Closing Powers are rising.
China is the world's biggest economy by some
meaures. It is also one of the
fastest growing. We need to watch measures of
China's stock market and buy CHAU
(2x leveraged Chinese stocks).
Too much debt? Alexander
Hamilton said Debt was a sign of a strong economy. But
then how could he know the extremes to which manic bulls might be willing to go.
Certainly,
too much speculative borrowing and buying on margin in the stock market is a danger sign.
The first table below shows that we are way above the level of margin buying in 2000 and
2008. That cannot be a good sign, Alexander. In addition, too much stock
buy-backing
and not enough capital investment with corporate funds cannot last. When speculative
markets
stop rising, borrowers will have to rapidly reduce their positions. So, we will need
to be
vigilant, just in case Peerless does not give a Sell. With the key indexes back up
almost to
the resistance of last year's highs, we must be vigilant for the non-Peerless signs of a
top.
Presently, those are not here, yet. But I promise to look for head/shoulder tops,
Closing
Power breakdowns after bearish CP non-confirmations, Hourly DISI divergences from
price, many more groups with a majority of their stocks below a 65-dma and negative IP21
(Accumulation Index) readings in Table 1 (most important major market ETFs.)
(From Bloomberg)
Charts 4/10/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/10/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-10/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-10/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/10/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.6 .09 263.78 -7.6% ------- RED .216 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 364.94 -4.1 395.86 -258.3% Bullish RED .048 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.29 .98 287.18 32.5% ------- BLUE .146 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.47 .99 183.71 45.8% ------- BLUE .114 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.25 3.2 352.26 53.9% ------- BLUE .115 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.31 2.11 155.92 68.8% Bearish BLUE .034 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.16 .89 66.15 36.3% Bearish BLUE .095 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.71 1.16 30.95 135% Bearish BLUE-.152 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 162.17 4.06 158.83 122.9% ------- BLUE .059 .592 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 152.13 3.16 147.59 93.4% ------- BLUE .114 .572 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.84 1.24 113.03 15.4% ------- BLUE .166 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.53 .38 122.11 70.7% Bearish BLUE-.116 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.02 .12 17.57 188.3% Bullish ---- .006 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 7.92 .16 7.48 438% Bearish -----.026 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.19 -.10 26.18 144.9% Bullish BLUE .223 +.181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHAU 26.85 +.26 27.21 +109.4 Bullish BLUE .242 +.242 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.65 .24 20.96 148.6% Bullish BLUE .174 -.018 |
Table 2Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190410 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 190 Bullish NEWLOWS 7 MAXCP 28 MINCP 6 TTTNH 17 TTTNL 22 FASTUP 61 FASTDOWN 33 CPCROSSA 174 CPCROSSD 44 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 10 VHIP21 36 LOWACCUM 151 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 27 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/10/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .97 .97 .961 .97 .97 1 ETFS .912 .894 .894 .894 .859 .842 DOWJONES .896 .896 .896 .896 .896 .862 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .882 .823 BIGBANKS .857 .714 .857 .857 1 .714 SEMI .857 .83 .848 .848 .839 .821 NASD-100 .854 .833 .854 .854 .854 .843 UTILITY .85 .825 .875 .85 .825 .825 AUTO .846 .794 .846 .82 .897 .82 DJI-13 .846 .846 .846 .923 .923 .846 NIFTY .842 .842 .877 .894 .877 .842 EDU .833 .833 .666 .666 .666 .666 SP-100 .829 .797 .84 .861 .861 .797 SP500 .824 .786 .851 .861 .832 .81 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 INDEXES .817 .801 .795 .79 .79 .79 REIT .817 .736 .81 .858 .804 .783 FIDSTKS .794 .772 .827 .832 .827 .767 RUS-1000 .776 .739 .809 .821 .796 .76 OILGAS .774 .753 .781 .774 .697 .676 INSURANC .75 .678 .821 .785 .785 .75 TRANSP .75 .75 .75 .85 .85 .75 CHINA .745 .762 .762 .745 .745 .745 GREEN .739 .695 .695 .739 .695 .652 ELECTRON .734 .708 .753 .746 .734 .721 INFRA .722 .694 .888 .861 .833 .75 HACKERS .714 .761 .761 .809 .714 .857 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .698 .714 .714 .746 CHEM .692 .653 .711 .711 .673 .634 INDMATER .683 .658 .772 .721 .708 .658 COMPUTER .681 .681 .727 .772 .727 .772 BIOTECH .663 .633 .673 .69 .66 .684 BIG17 .644 .577 .688 .688 .644 .688 RETAIL .641 .603 .66 .679 .698 .641 COMODITY .634 .56 .536 .512 .536 .512 GOLD .6 .66 .56 .46 .46 .42 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 FOOD .589 .535 .5 .5 .517 .482 GUNS .588 .529 .647 .529 .529 .529 FINANCE .568 .511 .602 .636 .613 .5 BEVERAGE .529 .529 .529 .529 .588 .588 MILITARY .5 .466 .633 .633 .6 .5 REGBANKS .5 .214 .392 .464 .285 .285 GAMING .478 .391 .565 .565 .478 .478 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 HOSPITAL .26 .217 .217 .26 .217 .217 |
===========================================================================
4/9/2019 The operative Peerless Buy B4s, B18 and B15
signals remain in effect
and tell us the DJI will likely reach 27000. Another Monday pullback, like today's,
should not unduly upset us. Seasonality in this the third year of a four year
Presidential
cycle is particularly bullish now, as is the Hourly DISI's making new highs ahead of the
DJI
and the NYSE A/D Line's daily new highs ahead of the DJI. It is also significantly
bullish
that so few stocks qualify as Bearish MINCPs and there are very few new lows. As
long
as interest rates stay so low and the Jobs' numbers show reasonable growth, it seems
unlikely that we will see a big decline. But as always, we have to be guarded
against the
unexpected. The best way to do that is to turn bearish, at least short-term, if a
DJI
head/shoulders is completed or the ADL breaks a lengthy and well-tested uptrend even
if Peerless gives no Sell.
When we look at the charts going back to 1928, we see that the
market mostly gets in big trouble
when the A/D Line lags the DJI, not when the DJI lags the A/D
Line, as now. When the
A/D Line lags the DJI, Peerless tends to produce multiple Sell S9s, like we see in
the
charts of 1929, 1972-1973 and 1999-2000 below. The ADL starts to lag because the
economy
is slowing down and/or the FED is raising rates.
1972-1973 |
Oppositely, when the DJI badly lags the NYSE ADL, like now, we tend to get Buy B9s at the
lower band and the market usually holds up very well. In fact, I can only find three
exceptions
to the theory that a strong ADL leads to higher prices in a strong bull market. The
three
exceptions are the cases of 1976-1977, 2001 just before 9/11 and 2002 after
the post 9/11
rebound when rates were made very low. Bear markets followed in these three cases. This
suggests a prudent Peerless trader should to do some selling despite the absence of
Peerless
Sells if the shallower ADL uptrendline shown above is broken. For now, hold DIA, SPY
and QQQ.
1977 |
2001 |
2002 |
Charts 4/8/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/8/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-09/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-09/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/9/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.51 -1.71 262 -3.4% ------- RED .169 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 369.04 -5.48 384.74 -280.1% Bullish RED .005 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 287.31 -1.48 286.42 23.3% ------- RED .118 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 184.48 -.65 183.78 47.6% ------- ---- .1 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 351.05 -3.92 350.45 34.9% Bearish RED .081 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.2 -1.92 155.16 26.9% Bearish RED -.006 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.27 -1.33 65.68 4.5% Bearish RED .058 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.11 -5.52 158.23 315% ------- RED .047 .479 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 148.97 -2.2 149.34 104.9% ------- RED .09 .487 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 112.6 -1.84 113.49 -9.7% ------- RED .155 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.15 .64 121.8 47.9% Bearish RED -.089 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.9 -.25 17.35 81.8% ------- RED .031 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.41 .03 21.02 71% ------- --- .144 -.026 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190409 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 76 NEWLOWS 11 MAXCP 13 MINCP 8 TTTNH 8 TTTNL 25 FASTUP 44 FASTDOWN 34 CPCROSSA 36 CPCROSSD 235 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 14 HIGHIP21 6 HIUPPCT 9 VHIP21 38 LOWACCUM 156 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 34 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/9/19 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .952 .961 .961 .99 .98 ETFS .894 .894 .894 .859 .842 .824 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .882 .823 .823 DOWJONES .866 .866 .9 .9 .866 .833 DJI-13 .846 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 NIFTY .842 .877 .894 .877 .859 .894 SEMI .836 .853 .853 .844 .827 .81 NASD-100 .835 .855 .855 .855 .855 .814 EDU .833 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 UTILITY .825 .875 .85 .825 .825 .8 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 .823 SP-100 .797 .84 .861 .861 .819 .787 INDEXES .795 .795 .79 .79 .79 .784 AUTO .794 .846 .82 .897 .82 .692 SP500 .786 .851 .861 .832 .82 .802 FIDSTKS .772 .827 .832 .827 .783 .794 HACKERS .772 .772 .818 .727 .863 .772 CHINA .762 .762 .745 .745 .745 .762 OILGAS .753 .781 .774 .697 .697 .732 TRANSP .75 .75 .85 .85 .8 .75 REIT .736 .81 .858 .804 .79 .804 RUS-1000 .733 .802 .812 .79 .763 .75 ELECTRON .716 .759 .753 .74 .728 .697 BIGBANKS .714 .857 .857 1 .857 .714 SOFTWARE .714 .698 .714 .714 .746 .746 GREEN .695 .695 .739 .695 .652 .652 INFRA .694 .888 .861 .833 .777 .75 COMPUTER .681 .727 .772 .727 .772 .772 CHEM .666 .722 .722 .685 .685 .629 INSURANC .666 .8 .766 .766 .733 .7 INDMATER .658 .772 .721 .708 .683 .645 GOLD .647 .549 .45 .45 .411 .392 BIOTECH .634 .677 .693 .664 .687 .682 RETAIL .603 .66 .679 .698 .66 .622 JETS .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 BIG17 .586 .695 .695 .652 .717 .695 COMODITY .56 .536 .512 .536 .512 .536 BEVERAGE .555 .555 .555 .611 .611 .611 GUNS .529 .647 .529 .529 .529 .47 FOOD .527 .49 .49 .509 .472 .509 FINANCE .511 .6 .644 .622 .533 .533 ============================================================================================== MILITARY .483 .645 .645 .612 .548 .677 GAMING .375 .541 .541 .458 .458 .458 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .428 HOSPITAL .25 .25 .291 .25 .291 .25 REGBANKS .214 .392 .464 .285 .285 .321 |
========================================================================
4/8/2019 The operative Peerless Buy
B4s, B18 and B15 signals remain in effect
and tell us the DJI will likely reach 27000. My
suggestion is not to underestimate how
bullish Aprils usually are in the year before a Presidential Election. The
average
gain in the DJI over the next 65 trading days is 6% and the DJI rises 81.3% of
the time, based on every fourth year from 1967, 1971, 1975...2015. The same
rising pattern is even more apparent when we look at the data from 1943 to 1963.
The data is nowhere near so bullish for the trading after April 8th in other years.
Conclusion: to understand where the market is going, we must understand the role
of politics in it.
4/8/1943 135.5 7/14/1943 145.8
4/8/1947 173.3 7/24/1947 186.9
4/9/1951 250.6 9/14/1951 276.1
4/7/1955 418.2 9/23/1955 487.5
4/8/1959 606.4 8/3/1959 678.1
4/8/1963 796 10/28/1963 760.5
Once again, the NYSE A/D Line made another new high ahead of the DJI prices. In
these
circumstances it is much harder to get a reversing Peerless Sell. But tops can still
be made.
In 1976 and 2001, the market as a whole did top out despite a previously very strong A/D
Line. In these two cases, waiting for the A/D Line uptrend to be broken would have
worked out well. Right now, there are no signs of such a break happening any time
soon.
The Hourly DISI also keeps making new highs ahead of the DJI itself. Until this
uptrend is
broken, there can be no big DJI decline.
I keep reporting that the Closing Powers for the key ETFs are rising. This shows
that Professionals remain bullish. There are many other bullish signs. In no
particular
order, there are very few head/shoulders tops in the SP-500 now. There are a few
(BBT, CFG, AMA, HBAN and SIVB) but we would expect many more if we were at
a major top. Look back at your charts around October 1st last year. You will
see
many cear-cut H/S patterns. Another bullish sign is the continuing strength in
Semi-Conductors.
I've shown in the past that TXN often tops out with a H/S pattern when a big market
decline
was about to take place. That is not true now.
For weeks there have been very few new lows and trustworthy
MINCPs. That has to
be a bullish sign. Before a top can occur, I would expect Visa and MasterCard
to
break their powerful uptrends. Another bullish element: only 2 or 3 groups out of
the
46 we follow show a majority of their components are below their 65-dma.
The weakness in the DJI today owed to just one stock, Boeing. Its 17 point decline,
just by itself, took the DJI down 120 points. Of course, BA could get weaker, but
its rising Closing Power argues otherwise. This makes us believe that the DJI is
stronger internally than its decline today suggests. All in all, I would think our
Peerless Buys should continue to be trusted. Nominal 12-month new highs will
probably be seen this month, given its normal bullishness, for our holdings DIA, SPY
and QQQ.
Charts 4/8/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/8/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-08/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-08/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/8/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 263.22 -.94 261.69 15.8% ------- BLUE .228 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.52 -17.41 390.75 -217.7% ------- RED .124 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.79 .22 285.97 51.6% ------- BLUE .16 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 185.13 .47 182.73 84.2% ------- BLUE .145 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.97 -.02 348.59 70.7% ------- BLUE .163 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.12 -.26 154.36 75.9% ------- BLUE .065 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.6 .02 65.21 124% ------- BLUE .097 .102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 163.63 1.17 148.14 514.6% ------- BLUE .08 .438 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 151.17 1.79 145.85 232.5% ------- BLUE .143 .448 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.44 -.49 112.82 111.7% ------- RED .216 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.51 .53 121.98 40.2% Bearish RED -.079 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 18.15 .16 17.61 113.3% ------- BLUE .06 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.38 .19 21.11 83.1% ------- BLUE .167 -.033 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-08 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 159 NEWLOWS 16 MAXCP 23 MINCP 6 TTTNH 14 TTTNL 28 FASTUP 60 FASTDOWN 41 CPCROSSA 93 CPCROSSD 58 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 10 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 7 VHIP21 35 LOWACCUM 159 REDSELL 47 AUGSELS7 34 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3: RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/8/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .952 .961 .961 .99 .98 .971 INFRA .888 .861 .833 .777 .777 .805 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 ETFS .879 .896 .862 .844 .827 .827 NIFTY .877 .894 .877 .859 .894 .894 UTILITY .875 .85 .825 .825 .8 .875 DOWJONES .866 .9 .9 .866 .833 .866 BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 .857 .714 .857 NASD-100 .855 .855 .855 .855 .814 .824 SEMI .853 .853 .844 .827 .81 .827 SP500 .851 .861 .832 .82 .802 .822 AUTO .846 .82 .897 .82 .692 .717 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 SP-100 .84 .861 .861 .819 .787 .84 FIDSTKS .827 .832 .827 .783 .794 .827 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .764 .823 .823 REIT .81 .858 .804 .79 .81 .777 RUS-1000 .802 .812 .789 .764 .754 .786 INSURANC .8 .766 .766 .733 .7 .7 INDEXES .795 .79 .79 .79 .784 .774 OILGAS .781 .774 .697 .697 .732 .816 HACKERS .772 .818 .727 .863 .772 .818 INDMATER .772 .721 .708 .683 .683 .683 CHINA .762 .745 .745 .745 .762 .745 ELECTRON .759 .753 .74 .728 .703 .734 TRANSP .75 .85 .85 .8 .75 .75 COMPUTER .727 .772 .727 .772 .772 .772 CHEM .722 .722 .685 .685 .648 .648 SOFTWARE .698 .714 .714 .746 .746 .714 BIG17 .695 .695 .652 .717 .695 .673 GREEN .695 .739 .695 .652 .652 .695 BIOTECH .674 .693 .664 .687 .685 .671 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 RETAIL .66 .679 .698 .66 .622 .679 GUNS .647 .529 .529 .529 .47 .588 MILITARY .645 .645 .612 .548 .677 .741 FINANCE .6 .633 .622 .533 .533 .555 JETS .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 .5 BEVERAGE .555 .555 .611 .611 .611 .611 GOLD .549 .45 .45 .411 .392 .431 GAMING .541 .541 .458 .458 .458 .458 COMODITY .536 .512 .536 .512 .536 .512 =============================================================================================== FOOD .5 .5 .518 .481 .518 .5 =============================================================================================== REGBANKS .392 .464 .285 .285 .321 .285 COAL .285 .285 .285 .285 .428 .428 HOSPITAL .25 .291 .25 .291 .25 .291 |
========================================================================
4/5/2019 The operative Peerless Buy B4s,
B18 and B15 signal tell us to expect the
DJI will reach 27000. The monthly Jobs Report jumped up from a weak 33,000 in
February to 196,000 in March. My cumulative chart shows the uptrend remains strong.
So, it is not clear that the FED will be inclined to lower rates as President Trump wants.
Without a rate cut, the DJI will have a difficult time, I would guess, moving much over
27,000 unless there is a trade agreement with China or some other economic booster.
So, as many traders see that most of the immediate upside has been achieved in the DJI,
I suspect that "hot" money will move to the other ETFs and, perhaps, to
low priced stocks
like the ones shown among the MAXCPs.
But I don't see any reason to sell our DIA, SPY or QQQ. The NYSE A/D line remains
strong. The Hourly DJI's DISI-Line is still rising at a faster rate than the DJI, itself.
And
the Closing Powers for SPY and QQQ are still rates "bullish".
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Charts 4/5/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/5/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-5/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-5/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/5/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 264.16 .38 262.39 96.1% ------- RED .25 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 391.93 -3.93 391.54 135.1% ------- RED .157 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 288.57 1.39 285.83 106.6% ------- BLUE .174 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 184.66 .95 182.04 137.1% ------- BLUE .162 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.99 2.73 350 137.3% ------- BLUE .179 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 157.38 1.46 154.76 138.7% ------- BLUE .08 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.58 .43 64.97 364.3% ------- RED .104 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.9 -.05 30.33 204.6% Bearish RED -.104 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 162.46 3.63 147.67 830.2% ------- BLUE .095 .511 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 149.38 1.79 144.32 370.3% ------- BLUE .162 .481 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.93 1.9 111.91 139% ------- BLUE .231 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.98 -.13 121.53 -1.2% ------- BLUE-.005 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.99 .42 17.75 217.1% ------- BLUE .073 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.19 .23 21.03 140.9% ------- BLUE .168 -.05 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-05 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 213 Bullish NEWLOWS 14 MAXCP 28 MINCP 5 TTTNH 17 TTTNL 9 FASTUP 83 FASTDOWN 39 CPCROSSA 215 CPCROSSD 23 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 12 HIGHIP21 15 HIUPPCT 7 VHIP21 35 LOWACCUM 164 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 29 TRAPDOOR 14 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/5/19 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .961 .961 .99 .98 .98 .98 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 DOWJONES .9 .9 .866 .833 .866 .8 ETFS .896 .862 .844 .827 .827 .793 NIFTY .894 .877 .859 .894 .894 .807 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 INFRA .861 .833 .777 .777 .805 .638 SP-100 .861 .861 .819 .787 .84 .744 SP500 .861 .832 .82 .802 .826 .759 REIT .858 .804 .79 .81 .79 .743 BIGBANKS .857 1 .857 .714 .857 .428 NASD-100 .855 .855 .855 .814 .835 .762 SEMI .853 .844 .827 .81 .836 .758 UTILITY .85 .825 .825 .8 .875 .85 TRANSP .85 .85 .8 .75 .75 .65 FIDSTKS .832 .827 .783 .794 .832 .745 SOLAR .823 .823 .764 .823 .823 .823 AUTO .82 .897 .82 .692 .717 .487 HACKERS .818 .727 .863 .772 .818 .727 RUS-1000 .812 .789 .763 .755 .793 .711 INDEXES .79 .79 .79 .784 .774 .752 OILGAS .774 .697 .697 .732 .816 .725 COMPUTER .772 .727 .772 .772 .772 .681 INSURANC .766 .766 .733 .7 .7 .666 ELECTRON .753 .74 .728 .703 .746 .666 CHINA .745 .745 .745 .762 .745 .694 GREEN .739 .695 .652 .652 .695 .652 CHEM .722 .685 .685 .648 .666 .611 INDMATER .721 .708 .683 .683 .683 .582 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .746 .746 .714 .666 BIG17 .695 .652 .717 .695 .673 .608 BIOTECH .69 .664 .687 .685 .674 .656 RETAIL .679 .698 .66 .622 .679 .641 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 MILITARY .645 .612 .548 .677 .741 .612 FINANCE .633 .611 .533 .533 .566 .366 JETS .6 .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 BEVERAGE .555 .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 GAMING .541 .458 .458 .458 .458 .375 GUNS .529 .529 .529 .47 .588 .411 COMODITY .512 .536 .512 .536 .512 .463 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD .5 .518 .481 .518 .5 .444 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGBANKS .464 .285 .285 .321 .285 .214 GOLD .45 .45 .411 .392 .431 .47 HOSPITAL .291 .25 .291 .25 .291 .291 COAL .285 .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 |
====================================================================
4/4/2019 Today's advance brought a new Peerless
Buy B4 to reinforce the
standing January B4, B18 and B15 Peerless Buy signals. Our new Buy
B4 results from the quick rise again in the current OBVPct over +.25. This
is the #3 variation of the B4. There are other conditions for this Buy B4.
The DJI must be above a rising 65-dma and IP21 must be above +.07.
There can be no simultaneous Sell. This second Buy B4 suggests that the
DJI will probably only just manage to get back to 27000 and then the
market will rest and pullback. At least, only a small 2% gain is the median gain
for a second Buy B4 in a series of Buy signals on an advance since 1929.
This is the second Buy B4 in this rally. There were 7 earlier cases, We can look
back
and see what has happened after the second Buy B4. Doing this below, we discover
that
the median gain was only 2.6% and the median paper loss was 1.15%. This should be
just enough the get the DJI to 27000. See the Table further below.
Charts 4/4/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/4/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-4/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-4/BEARISH.htm |
Tomorrow morning the Labor Department gives us a sense of if the US economy
is cooling off. One would think that weakness, a monthly figure below 100,000 of
new private jobs "should" boost the chances that the FED will reduce rates.
Monthly Jobs' Created
|
Second Buy B4s since 1929 Gain >20% 7/9/1942, 10/28/1986 Gain 10%-20% Gain 5%-10% 2/14/1986 Gain 2%-5% 11/22/1972 (median +2.6%) 6/17/1997 Gain 0%-2% 1/15/1997 Loss 1/29/1985 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19420528 B4 101.0 .410 none 0 19420709 B4 108.8 .309 104.9 -.038 8/5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19721114 B4 1003.16 .044 1000.00 -.0031 12/21 19721122 B4 1020.54 .026 1000.00 -.0201 12/21 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19840806 B4 1202.96 .072 1163.21 -.033 10/9 19841010 B1 1177.23 .096 1163.21 -.0119 10/9 19841010 B2 1177.23 .096 1163.21 -.0119 10/9 19841116 B2 1187.94 .086 1163.21 -.0208 10/9 19841217 B13 1176.79 .096 1163.21 -.0115 10/9 19850121 B10 1261.37 .023 none 0 19850129 B4 1292.62 -.002 1277.72 -.0115 2/1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19851118 B4 1440.02 .268 none 0 19851220 B18 1543.00 .183 none 0 19860122 B9 1502.29 .215 none 0 19860214 B4 1664.45 .097 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19861016 B4 1836.19 .310 1826.63 -.0052 19861028 B4 1845.47 .303 1826.63 -.0102 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19961120 B4 6430.01 .066 6268.35 -.0251 12/16 19961212 B17 6303.71 .088 6268.35 -.0056 12/16 19961213 B9 6304.87 .087 6268.35 -.0057 12/16 19961216 B2 6268.35 .094 6268.35 0 12/16 19961217 B13 6308.33 .087 6268.35 -.0063 12/16 19970115 B4 6726.88 .019 6690.69 -.0053 1/27 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 19970509 B4 7169.53 .105 none 0 19970617 B4 7760.78 .021 7604.26 -.0201 6/23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/4/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 263.78 1.78 259.13 128.6% ------- BLUE .243 ---- ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 395.86 11.12 381.42 278.5% ------- BLUE .167 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 287.18 .76 282.48 113.8% ------- BLUE .115 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.71 -.07 179.66 148.9% ------- RED .112 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 352.26 1.81 345.4 117.3% ------- BLUE .116 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.92 .76 153.09 107.1% Bearish BLUE .005 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.15 .47 61.86 376.1% ------- BLUE .075 .129 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.95 1.06 29.67 243.6% Bearish BLUE -.102 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.83 .6 137.54 945.3% ------- BLUE .066 .743 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 147.59 -1.75 138.63 445.3% ------- RED .123 .505 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.03 -.46 111.8 159.5% ------- RED .184 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.11 .31 122.01 8.6% ------- BLUE -.008 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.57 .22 17.23 88.9% ------- BLUE -.014 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.96 -.06 20.6 33.5% Bearish ---- .082 -.057 |
TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-04 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 117 NEWLOWS 12 MAXCP 15 MINCP 2 TTTNH 14 TTTNL 24 FASTUP 77 FASTDOWN 44 CPCROSSA 197 CPCROSSD 43 BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 10 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 7 VHIP21 36 LOWACCUM 180 REDSELL 43 AUGSELS7 33 TRAPDOOR 13 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/4/19 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 .857 .714 .857 .428 .571 BONDFUND .961 .99 .98 .98 .99 .99 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .769 AUTO .897 .82 .692 .717 .538 .487 DOWJONES .896 .862 .862 .896 .862 .758 HOMEBLDG .882 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 NIFTY .877 .859 .894 .894 .824 .807 ETFS .862 .844 .827 .827 .793 .775 SP-100 .861 .819 .787 .84 .755 .734 NASD-100 .855 .855 .814 .835 .762 .711 TRANSP .85 .8 .75 .75 .65 .65 SEMI .844 .827 .81 .836 .767 .715 INFRA .833 .777 .777 .805 .666 .5 SP500 .832 .82 .802 .826 .763 .731 FIDSTKS .827 .783 .794 .832 .751 .718 UTILITY .825 .825 .8 .875 .875 .825 SOLAR .823 .764 .823 .823 .823 .764 REIT .804 .79 .81 .79 .756 .797 INDEXES .79 .79 .784 .774 .752 .731 RUS-1000 .789 .763 .754 .794 .722 .695 INSURANC .766 .733 .7 .7 .666 .766 CHINA .745 .745 .762 .745 .694 .661 ELECTRON .74 .728 .703 .746 .679 .629 COMPUTER .727 .772 .772 .772 .681 .636 HACKERS .727 .863 .772 .818 .818 .636 SOFTWARE .714 .746 .746 .714 .714 .65 INDMATER .708 .683 .683 .683 .607 .531 RETAIL .698 .66 .622 .679 .641 .641 OILGAS .697 .697 .732 .816 .739 .746 GREEN .695 .652 .652 .695 .652 .695 CHEM .685 .685 .648 .666 .629 .555 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 BIOTECH .661 .687 .685 .674 .658 .648 BIG17 .652 .717 .695 .673 .608 .63 MILITARY .612 .548 .677 .741 .645 .58 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 .611 FINANCE .611 .522 .533 .566 .366 .433 JETS .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 COMODITY .536 .512 .536 .512 .463 .439 GUNS .529 .529 .47 .588 .47 .47 FOOD .518 .481 .518 .5 .444 .444 ================================================================================================ GAMING .458 .458 .458 .458 .375 .333 GOLD .45 .411 .392 .431 .49 .47 COAL .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 REGBANKS .285 .285 .321 .285 .214 .214 HOSPITAL .25 .291 .25 .291 .291 .291 |
=======================================================================
4/3/2019 The January B4, B18 and B15
Peerless Buy signals remain
un-reversed
even though the DJI has made it to the 2.0% upper band. The market is moving
steadily higher, almost day by day. Yes, the DJI has reached well-tested flat
resistance/
But this type of formation favors upside breakouts. Its pause now reflects normal
caution until the Jobs' Report comes out Friday morning. Since the Buy signals'
average
gains large enough to take the DJI above 27000, since the Closing Powers are still rising
for the major ETFs, since the Hourly DISI is in an uptrend and since 39 of the 45 groups
we
follow show more than half of their component-stocks above the support of their
65-day ma, it is important now that we be patient and expect a good Jobs' Report
(whatever that is!).
Don't worry that Democrats in the House now are grabbing some
of the Headlines.
The political reality remains one that Wall Street likes and depends on, namely that
the Trump forces control the Senate and the Supreme Court. There is very little the
Democrats can do except to make a lot of noise. Meanwhile, Trump's budget priorites
will continue, so will de-Regulation and so will spending on the military. Nothing
is on
the horizon that should disturb Wall Street's priorities. At least, not so long as the
stock
market and the economy keep growing. Don't worry about the FED. Chairman
Powell
knows his job now is to not rock the boat. As a Washington lawyer who made
$100,000,000
from the system, he knows how to get along. He knows his job is to boost the market
in time for the 2020 Election. The Dollar is strong. There is little inflation. So,
low rates
are as they say, "a no brainer". Oh, one more thing. Labor remains
very docile. That's
important because Labor costs are the one variable that corporations must control.
What's not to like for the stock market? Be patient, the DJI is aimed at new highs and
the Peerless Buy signals are there for good reason. DIA, SPY and QQQ should all
keep rising.
Charts 4/3/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/3/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-3/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-3/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/3/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 262 .31 257.08 113.6% ------- RED .184 ===== ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 384.74 -6.01 374.44 137.7% ------- RED .134 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 286.42 .45 280.71 119.6% ------- RED .064 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 183.78 1.05 178.31 163.2% ------- ---- .087 .061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 350.45 1.86 344.1 133.1% Bearish RED .044 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.16 .8 152.62 126.9% Bearish RED -.077 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.68 .47 61.35 462.9% ------- RED .043 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.89 .45 29.5 123.2% Bearish BLUE-.149 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 158.23 10.09 131.49 934.3% ------- BLUE .028 .698 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 149.34 3.49 134.89 570.9% ------- BLUE .113 .541 strongest combined --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.49 .67 109.46 211.3% Bearish ---- .088 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.8 -.18 121.9 -75.7% Bearish BLUE -.02 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.02 -.09 20.82 50.3% Bearish RED .062 -.037 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-04-03 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 182 NEWLOWS 21 MAXCP 25 MINCP 18 TTTNH 10 TTTNL 28 FASTUP 97 FASTDOWN 49 CPCROSSA 63 CPCROSSD 126 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 14 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 184 REDSELL 46 AUGSELS7 38 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/3/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .98 .98 .99 .99 .99 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 .692 HACKERS .863 .772 .818 .818 .681 .681 DOWJONES .862 .862 .896 .862 .793 .689 NIFTY .859 .894 .894 .824 .807 .789 BIGBANKS .857 .714 .857 .428 .571 0 NASD-100 .855 .814 .835 .762 .711 .731 ETFS .844 .827 .827 .793 .775 .758 SEMI .827 .81 .836 .767 .715 .698 UTILITY .825 .8 .875 .875 .825 .825 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 AUTO .82 .692 .717 .538 .512 .435 SP500 .82 .802 .826 .763 .739 .71 SP-100 .819 .787 .84 .755 .744 .659 TRANSP .8 .75 .75 .65 .65 .65 INDEXES .79 .784 .774 .752 .731 .731 REIT .79 .81 .79 .756 .797 .783 FIDSTKS .783 .794 .832 .751 .735 .681 INFRA .777 .777 .805 .666 .527 .444 COMPUTER .772 .772 .772 .681 .636 .636 SOLAR .764 .823 .823 .823 .823 .705 RUS-1000 .763 .754 .793 .723 .701 .667 SOFTWARE .746 .746 .714 .714 .666 .65 CHINA .745 .762 .745 .694 .694 .644 INSURANC .733 .7 .7 .666 .766 .766 ELECTRON .728 .703 .746 .679 .648 .635 BIG17 .717 .695 .673 .608 .63 .565 OILGAS .697 .732 .816 .739 .76 .725 BIOTECH .685 .685 .674 .658 .648 .613 CHEM .685 .648 .666 .629 .574 .518 INDMATER .683 .683 .683 .607 .544 .544 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 RETAIL .66 .622 .679 .641 .641 .641 GREEN .652 .652 .695 .652 .695 .695 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .611 .666 .611 .611 MILITARY .548 .677 .741 .645 .58 .483 GUNS .529 .47 .588 .47 .47 .47 FINANCE .522 .522 .566 .366 .444 .344 COMODITY .512 .536 .512 .463 .439 .512 ============================================================================================ JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ============================================================================================ FOOD .481 .518 .5 .444 .444 .518 GAMING .458 .458 .458 .375 .333 .333 GOLD .411 .392 .431 .49 .47 .705 HOSPITAL .291 .25 .291 .291 .291 .291 COAL .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 REGBANKS .285 .321 .285 .214 .214 .178 |
====================================================================
4/2/2019 The January B4, B18 and B15 Peerless Buy signals all point to the DJI
reaching 28000 by this Summer. The abiding strength shown by the NYSE A/D,
which is running in all-time high territory ahead of the DJI and all the other ETFs is
impressive. It shows how important low interest rates are. The DJI remains
the
leader in the sense that it is closest to its high of last year. The DJI also
now shows
the highest IP21. The main ETFs we are long still are in price and Closing Power
uptrends
as is the Hourly DJI's DISI Line. The futures are up. April has strong
seasonality.
Trump is backing away from his ill-advised plan to shut the Mexican border and
Chinese stocks are acting like there may soon be a tariffs' agreement. Meanwhile,
the Dollar is strong and interest rates are low. Foreign money should continue to
flow into the major ETFs that we are long, DIA, SPY and QQQ. The futures look
good for the much more speculative SOXL. This shows confidence in US equities
remains strong. Hold for DJI 27000 soon.
Five of the DJI-30 stocks, CSCO, MRK, MSFT, PG and V are now making
new highs, just two seem particularly weak and holding it back. They are Walgreen
(-7
today) and United Healthcare (very weak Closing Power). Now oil is moving up.
So, XOM and CVX should help lift the DJI-30. Goldman Sachs could turn weak
again, but its rising 65-dma is will act as support. Altogether, there are no
dangerous
looking head and shoulders patterns and I see nothing in the blue chips which will
prevent the DJI from making a nominal new high close above 27000. Nothing, unless
it is high priced Boeing which is enjoying a rebound and is trying to close its downside
gap.
Hold onto DIA as well as SPY and QQQ. The A/D Lines of their components is
is each making new highs. But it would be better if these ETFs were making new
highs
ahead of prices or their Opening Powers. But for now their Closing Powers' uptrends
are intact and that will have to do. They should soon reach their highs.
Charts 4/2/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/2/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-2/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-2/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/2/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.69 -.7 256.11 101.3% ------- RED .187 ===== ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 390.75 -.79 374.21 269.2% ------- BLUE .154 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 285.97 .14 279.65 86% ------- RED .075 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 182.73 .69 177.9 102.6% ------- BLUE .108 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 348.59 -1.41 341.24 103.2% Bearish RED .02 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.36 -.4 151.27 81.8% Bearish RED -.089 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.21 .24 59.88 379.1% ------- BLUE .064 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.44 -.89 29.16 199.1% Bearish RED -.106 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 148.14 .47 132.18 360.2% ------- BLUE .011 .46 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 145.85 1.53 133.42 372% ------- BLUE .125 .436 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 112.82 .91 108.8 112.7% Bearish BLUE .027 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.98 .45 123.65 -94.6% Bearish BLUE .03 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.11 .08 20.81 -2.4% Bearish BLUE .125 -.03 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190402 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 169 Bullish NEWLOWS 16 MAXCP 23 MINCP 15 TTTNH 8 TTTNL 35 FASTUP 58 FASTDOWN 52 CPCROSSA 82 CPCROSSD 143 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 176 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 176 REDSELL 44 AUGSELS7 30 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/2/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .98 .99 .99 .99 .99 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .846 .692 .769 NIFTY .894 .894 .824 .807 .789 .824 DOWJONES .862 .896 .862 .793 .689 .758 ETFS .827 .827 .793 .775 .758 .81 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 .705 REIT .81 .79 .756 .797 .797 .817 SEMI .81 .836 .767 .715 .706 .775 NASD-100 .808 .828 .757 .707 .727 .777 SP500 .804 .828 .765 .74 .718 .738 UTILITY .8 .875 .875 .825 .825 .875 SP-100 .795 .849 .763 .752 .666 .731 FIDSTKS .794 .832 .751 .735 .697 .735 INDEXES .784 .774 .752 .731 .736 .747 INFRA .777 .805 .666 .527 .472 .472 COMPUTER .772 .772 .681 .636 .636 .681 HACKERS .772 .818 .818 .681 .681 .772 CHINA .762 .745 .694 .694 .661 .644 RUS-1000 .754 .793 .722 .702 .677 .692 TRANSP .75 .75 .65 .65 .65 .6 SOFTWARE .746 .714 .714 .666 .666 .714 OILGAS .732 .816 .739 .76 .739 .767 BIGBANKS .714 .857 .428 .571 0 .571 ELECTRON .703 .746 .679 .648 .641 .703 INSURANC .7 .7 .666 .766 .766 .766 BIG17 .695 .673 .608 .63 .586 .652 AUTO .692 .717 .538 .512 .461 .435 INDMATER .683 .683 .607 .544 .556 .531 BIOTECH .682 .674 .658 .648 .619 .666 MILITARY .677 .741 .645 .58 .483 .516 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GREEN .652 .695 .652 .695 .695 .695 CHEM .648 .666 .629 .574 .555 .555 RETAIL .622 .679 .641 .641 .641 .584 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .666 .611 .611 .611 COMODITY .536 .512 .463 .439 .512 .56 FINANCE .522 .555 .366 .444 .344 .444 FOOD .518 .5 .444 .444 .518 .555 ========================================================================================= JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 ========================================================================================= GUNS .47 .588 .47 .47 .47 .529 GAMING .458 .458 .375 .333 .333 .333 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 GOLD .392 .431 .49 .47 .705 .725 REGBANKS .321 .285 .214 .214 .178 .214 HOSPITAL .25 .291 .291 .291 .291 .333 |
==========================================================================
4/1/2019 No thanks to JP Morgan's misleading talk of
an inversion of interest rates,
we got our rally back above 26000. Professionals were correctly bullish about
Boeing.
Today's overall volume could have been higher and more of the Russell-2000 stocks could
have
participated, but the DJIA is once again the leader. As I showed last night, the market
could
could go wildly up if it can get past 27000 on a lowering of interest rates. But that
won't
happen, at least, not until we see from this Friday's Jobs' Report if the US economy is
slowing down. The Peerless Buy signals all suggest we will see 27000 before we get a
Peerless
Sell.
What is clear from today's action is that no inflation is expected. Gold and silver
show bearish head/shoulders patterns. And Chinese and Semi-conductor stocks
are moving up again. So, the advance is a lot broader than just the DJIA stocks.
See how the NYSE AD line made a new 12-month high today. Only in 1976-1977
and August 2001 (a month before the 9/11 attack) was this true before a bear market.
Most of the advance recently has come from higher openings. I woudn't take this
as bearish yet. But we should see more Closing Power Strength if the resistance-levels we
have reached are going to be overcome.
Stay long DIA, SPY and QQQ. There are very few appealing short sale
candidates among
our Bearish MINCPs. The shorts are being run in. Cover any shorts if their Closing
Powers are violated.
Charts 4/1/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 4/1/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Apr-1/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Apr-1/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 4/1/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 262.39 3.26 256.46 142.5% ------- BLUE .163 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 391.54 10.12 370.38 281.7% ------- BLUE .155 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 285.83 3.35 281.12 121% Bearish BLUE .06 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 182.04 2.38 179.05 106.9% ------- BLUE .094 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 350 4.6 341.48 173.4% Bearish BLUE .02 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.76 1.67 151.86 147.5% Bearish BLUE-.108 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 64.97 3.11 60.53 523.6% Bearish BLUE .039 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.33 .66 28.27 457.4% Bearish BLUE-.132 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 147.67 10.13 138.24 501.4% Bearish BLUE .006 .542 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 144.32 5.69 135.63 401.6% ------- BLUE .105 .47 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.91 .11 110.33 163.6% Bearish RED -.001 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.53 -.48 124.3 -137.4% Bearish RED .017 -.081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 121.53 -.48 124.3 -137.4% Bullish RED -.032 11.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.75 .52 17.13 245.6% Bearish BLUE-.025 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.09 .26 7.73 468.9% Bearish ---- .041 -.109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 8.09 .26 7.73 468.9% Bullish -----.002 -.767 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 26.01 -.02 25.88 40.5% Bullish ---- .054 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 26.01 -.02 25.88 40.5% Bearish -----.204 -.827 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 26.01 -.02 25.88 40.5% Bullish ---- .057 .535 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 26.01 -.02 25.88 40.5% Bullish ---- .082 3.325 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 26.01 -.02 25.88 40.5% ------- ---- .304 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.03 .43 21.12 -40.7% Bearish BLUE .096 -.042 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190401 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 187 Bullish NEWLOWS 8 MAXCP 19 MINCP 12 TTTNH 11 TTTNL 23 FASTUP 74 FASTDOWN 55 CPCROSSA 114 CPCROSSD 75 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 11 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 184 REDSELL 44 AUGSELS7 37 TRAPDOOR 15 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 4/1/19 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .98 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .692 .846 .692 NIFTY .894 .824 .807 .789 .842 .807 UTILITY .875 .875 .825 .825 .875 .85 DOWJONES .866 .833 .766 .666 .766 .666 BIGBANKS .857 .428 .571 0 .571 0 SP-100 .849 .763 .752 .666 .752 .645 SEMI .836 .767 .715 .706 .775 .793 FIDSTKS .832 .751 .735 .697 .751 .686 NASD-100 .828 .757 .707 .727 .787 .757 SP500 .828 .765 .74 .718 .748 .702 ETFS .827 .793 .775 .758 .81 .775 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .823 .823 .764 .764 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .764 .705 .823 HACKERS .818 .818 .681 .681 .772 .772 OILGAS .816 .739 .76 .739 .767 .683 INFRA .805 .666 .527 .472 .527 .444 RUS-1000 .793 .722 .701 .678 .7 .649 REIT .79 .756 .797 .797 .824 .75 COMPUTER .772 .681 .636 .636 .681 .636 INDEXES .768 .752 .731 .736 .752 .736 TRANSP .75 .65 .65 .65 .6 .55 ELECTRON .746 .679 .648 .641 .703 .703 CHINA .745 .694 .694 .661 .644 .711 MILITARY .741 .645 .58 .483 .548 .516 AUTO .717 .538 .512 .461 .435 .384 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .666 .666 .714 .714 INSURANC .7 .666 .766 .766 .766 .666 GREEN .695 .652 .695 .695 .695 .695 INDMATER .683 .607 .544 .556 .569 .544 RETAIL .679 .641 .641 .641 .603 .509 BIG17 .673 .608 .63 .586 .652 .608 BIOTECH .671 .658 .648 .619 .669 .648 CHEM .666 .629 .574 .555 .574 .555 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .5 BEVERAGE .611 .666 .611 .611 .611 .611 GUNS .588 .47 .47 .47 .529 .47 FINANCE .555 .355 .444 .344 .444 .355 COMODITY .512 .463 .439 .512 .56 .536 FOOD .5 .444 .444 .518 .555 .518 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .3 =============================================================================================== GAMING .458 .375 .333 .333 .333 .333 GOLD .431 .49 .47 .705 .725 .745 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 HOSPITAL .291 .291 .291 .291 .333 .416 REGBANKS .285 .214 .214 .178 .214 0 |
====================================================================
3/29/2019 Short-Term rates are going down. This
should be bullish.
The Peerless Buy B4, B18 and B15 signals stand. Seasonality is bullish for the
next two weeks. Since 1965, the DJI has risen 65% of the time in this period.
In the third year of the 4-year Presidential cycle, like now, the odds of a DJI
rally jump to 75% of the time and DJI shows an average gain of 1.6%. If this were
a typical year, the DJI should then be up 2.1% in a month, 4.2% in two months
and 6% in three months. The DJI's head and shoulder pattern looks like it will
not play out. As traders realize this, the shorts among them will have to
cover.
So, what was a hesitant rally back up to resistance could quickly get a lot more
exciting when recovery new highs are made. Defintely, continue to hold the major
ETFs, DIA, SPY and QQQ.
Parallel to 1927
In many ways, the market is behaving as it did in the Spring
of 1927. See the
weekly chart below of that era. Back then, rates were dropped in the Summer of 1927,
also a year before the Presidential Election. That allowed the DJI to begin a wild
advance into all-time high territory. The DJI then doubled and did not stop until
September 1929.
What's To Prevent Another 1929 Crash?
I believe the political and economic parallels between then
and now are worth
considering; the most important being that, like now, the bull market has already made
a long run, the gap between the super wealthy and the rest of Americans is
very wide and most of the new wealth was by 1929 going back into the stock market
In addition, the Coolidge and Trump economic agendas match up closely: tax cuts for
corporations and the wealthy, de-regulation of industry/Wall Street and bigger tariffs.
Two other similarities: Labor was weak and Unemployment was low.
There were, of course, many important differences. Coolidge's stock market did have
two advantages over Trump's: Coolidge's Party controlled both the Senate and the
House and in the 1920s, there was a much bigger array of new consumer goods that
assured a high level of consumer demand. Of course, the Federal Government now
plays
a much bigger role in the whole Economy. Trump's budgets guarantee two million
military
and civilian jobs while Social Security, welfare and Medicare prevent most extreme poverty
and offer a safety-net underneath the Economy.
The big problem for Coolidge and possibly Trump will - if
history repeats - be that the
stock market rally will turn into a wildly speculative bubble. Back in the late
1920s,
the broader public was drawn like moths to a flame. They were allowed to buy stock
with as
little as 10% down. As a result, the Public drove the DJI up 50% in 1928 despite the
FED's raising the Discount Rate four times. That was the year the FED lost control.
The market's advance, however, was very convenient for the Hoover Presidential campaign,
but it soon posed a serious dilema. By 1929, the FED knew quite well that the
stock market's
bubble was becoming dangerous. One half of all the money that was loaned in 1929
went into stock speculation. "Legitimate" commerce and construction began
suffering from
a lack of capital. Many big corporations even found it very profitable to loan for
stock
speculation. They could borrow it for 5 1/2% to 6% and loan it out for more than
double
that for stock speculation. But the FED did not want to raise rates. They knew
from the
depression of 1920-1921, that if they raised the Discount Rate much above 5%, it could
lead
to another deep recession. They also had no authority to raise margin requirements.
And when
Hoover asked JP Morgan to stop making so many loans for stock speculation, Morgan
just laughed at him.
Finally, after the DJI had risen from to 360 in August 1929,
they raised rates from
5% to 6% even though the first signs of an economic slow down were already occurring
in new home permits, housing construction and auto/steel production. This had a
double-barreled effect; it hit stocks hard and it forced a weakening economy to
begin
to retrench. So two weeks later, the market peaked and JP Morgan, for one, took big
short
positions and stopped supporting the DJI whose strength throughout 929 had been
very usefully concealing the rapid fall in the NYSE A/D Line. A month later, with
support
for the DJIA withdrawn, the whole market crashed.
Of course, we don't allow buying stocks with just
10% or 20% down. Or do we? A lot of
traders now buy leveraged long ETFs on margin. The margin requirement when buying 3x
leveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) overnight is 75% on the the long
side. This
means $33,000 of SOXL (or $100,000 worth of TXN, INTC and NVDA, etc.can be bought
for $22500. In effect, the margin requirement now is 22.5%. It does not take
much of a
decline in one's SOXL long position to get a margin call or even be sold out. This
is
exactly what happened in October and November 1929 to lots and lots of people who
were bankrupted by the plunge..
SOXL is still on a number of TigerSoft Sells.
Charts 3/29/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/29/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-29/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-29/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/29/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 DJI-13 .923 .846 .692 .846 .692 .692 UTILITY .875 .825 .825 .875 .85 .825 DOWJONES .833 .766 .666 .766 .666 .666 NIFTY .824 .807 .789 .842 .807 .824 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .823 .764 .764 .705 SOLAR .823 .823 .764 .705 .823 .764 HACKERS .818 .681 .681 .772 .772 .727 ETFS .793 .775 .758 .81 .793 .775 SEMI .767 .715 .706 .775 .793 .784 SP500 .765 .74 .718 .748 .71 .708 SP-100 .763 .752 .666 .752 .645 .666 REIT .758 .798 .798 .825 .751 .731 NASD-100 .757 .707 .727 .787 .757 .767 INDEXES .752 .731 .736 .752 .741 .731 FIDSTKS .751 .735 .697 .751 .691 .708 OILGAS .739 .76 .739 .767 .69 .732 RUS-1000 .722 .701 .677 .701 .658 .658 SOFTWARE .714 .666 .666 .714 .714 .714 CHINA .694 .694 .661 .644 .711 .677 COMPUTER .681 .636 .636 .681 .636 .681 ELECTRON .679 .648 .641 .703 .703 .716 BEVERAGE .666 .611 .611 .611 .611 .611 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .5 .666 INFRA .666 .527 .472 .527 .472 .416 INSURANC .666 .766 .766 .766 .7 .633 BIOTECH .656 .648 .619 .669 .658 .653 GREEN .652 .695 .695 .695 .695 .695 TRANSP .65 .65 .65 .6 .55 .6 MILITARY .645 .58 .483 .548 .516 .548 RETAIL .641 .641 .641 .603 .509 .433 CHEM .629 .574 .555 .574 .611 .611 BIG17 .608 .63 .586 .652 .608 .63 INDMATER .607 .544 .556 .569 .544 .556 AUTO .538 .512 .461 .435 .384 .358 ============================================================================================ JETS .5 .5 .5 .3 .3 .4 =========================================================================================== GOLD .49 .47 .705 .725 .764 .725 GUNS .47 .47 .47 .529 .47 .411 COMODITY .463 .439 .512 .56 .585 .56 FOOD .444 .444 .518 .555 .555 .555 BIGBANKS .428 .571 0 .571 0 .285 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 GAMING .375 .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 FINANCE .355 .433 .344 .444 .377 .344 HOSPITAL .291 .291 .291 .333 .416 .5 REGBANKS .214 .214 .178 .214 .035 .035 |
TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190329 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 149 Bullish NEWLOWS 2 MAXCP 27 MINCP 15 TTTNH 18 TTTNL 28 FASTUP 47 FASTDOWN 66 CPCROSSA 62 CPCROSSD 125 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 185 REDSELL 45 AUGSELS7 32 TRAPDOOR 16 |
Table 3 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/29/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 259.13 2.05 255.07 81.5% Bearish BLUE .119 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 381.42 6.98 370.46 259.9% ------- BLUE .118 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.48 1.77 279.04 57.7% Bearish BLUE .058 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 179.66 1.35 178.22 30.8% ------- ---- .092 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.4 1.3 338.14 118.4% Bearish RED -.012 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.09 .47 150.28 114.8% Bearish RED -.103 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.86 .51 58.64 230.4% Bearish RED -.007 .088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.67 .17 27.69 516.4% Bearish ---- -.326 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 137.54 6.05 134.16 -71.8% Bearish BLUE -.033 .488 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 138.63 3.74 133.46 135.3% ------- BLUE .097 .444 ^^^^^^^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.8 2.34 108.32 166.5% Bearish BLUE .062 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.01 .11 124.92 -79.2% Bearish RED -.016 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.6 -.22 21.2 -71.5% Bearish RED .033 -.053 |
====================================================================
3/28/2019 Volume is low, but the DJI's Hourly
OBV is showing the type of
bullish improvement that brings a short-term rally. Also bullish, heavily weighted
Boeing has done very well holding up, despite the continuing negative fallout of the
two crashes of its MAX Jet airlines. I particularly find encouragement in the NYSE
A/D Line's 12-month new high today. Hold DIA, SPY and QQQ.
Hourly DJIA
DJIA
Significant tops seldom occur in the Spring when the ADL is so strong
unless Peerless gives a Sell Signal. Notice, too, how the Advance-Decline for the
DJI-30, SP-500 and Nasdaq-100 are all in strong uprends.
ADL for DJI-30 is rising.
ADL for SP-500 is rising.
ADL for QQQ is rising.
Falling 10-Yr Rates
It remains amazing to me that the Interest Rate on 10-Year Bonds remains in such
a steep downtrend and is below 3%. There are no cases from 1965 to 2008 of the
10-year
Bond dropping below 2.8%. See for yourself. Here are the 10-year rates
going back to 1970.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N
Cases where 10-Yr Rates fell below 2.8%
2008-11-01,3.53
2008-12-01,2.42 One month DJI rally
2009-01-01,2.52 Bear Market bottom made a month later,
2010-07-01,3.01
2010-08-01,2.7 Decline to lower band
2010-09-01,2.65 Strong advance follows
2011-07-01,3
2011-08-01,2.3 Steep decline
2011-09-01,1.98 Basing until Oct 4
2014-01-01,2.86
2014-02-01,2.71 Decline until Feb 3
2014-03-01,2.72 Strong rally
2018-12-01,2.83
2019-01-01,2.71 Strong advance
2019-02-01,2.68 Advance
The US Dollar ( UUP ) is also still in a strong uptrend. One would think that this will give
the FED
plenty of room to short-term rates if it wanted to help push up stocks to new highs.
Charts 3/28/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/28/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-28/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-28/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/28/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.08 .97 254.96 -48.7% Bearish BLUE .062 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.44 .23 362.17 23.5% Bullish RED .102 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 280.71 1.06 279.25 -71.6% Bearish BLUE .015 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.31 .41 178.56 -118.8% ------- RED .057 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 344.1 2.86 337.34 -48.7% ------- BLUE -.028 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.62 1.35 149.62 -87.4% Bearish BLUE -.119 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.35 1.47 59.1 -155.9% Bearish BLUE -.024 .137 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.5 .34 26.75 85.2% Bearish RED -.32 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 131.49 -.69 139.48 -752.3% Bearish RED -.046 .386 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 134.89 1.47 134.99 -393% ------- BLUE .062 .409 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.46 .66 108.17 -114.6% Bearish BLUE .029 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 121.9 -1.75 123.97 -71.7% Bearish RED -.021 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.26 .27 16.95 -142.9% ------- BLUE-.024 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.82 .01 20.9 -154% Bearish BLUE .036 -.03 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019 03 28 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 139 Bullish NEWLOWS 9 MAXCP 24 MINCP 21 TTTNH 17 TTTNL 28 FASTUP 27 FASTDOWN 145 CPCROSSA 79 CPCROSSD 54 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 8 ACCUMVER 5 HIGHIP21 7 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 163 REDSELL 40 AUGSELS7 17 TRAPDOOR 16 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/28/19 Bullish = 36 Bearish = 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 DJI-13 .846 .692 .846 .692 .692 .846 UTILITY .825 .825 .875 .85 .825 .9 HOMEBLDG .823 .823 .764 .764 .705 .823 SOLAR .823 .764 .705 .823 .823 .823 NIFTY .807 .789 .842 .807 .824 .877 REIT .798 .798 .825 .751 .738 .845 ETFS .775 .758 .81 .793 .775 .982 DOWJONES .766 .666 .766 .666 .666 .833 INSURANC .766 .766 .766 .7 .666 .766 OILGAS .76 .739 .767 .69 .739 .873 SP-100 .752 .666 .752 .645 .666 .86 SP500 .74 .718 .748 .71 .71 .834 FIDSTKS .735 .697 .751 .691 .713 .848 INDEXES .731 .736 .752 .741 .731 .795 SEMI .715 .706 .775 .793 .801 .844 NASD-100 .707 .727 .787 .757 .777 .848 RUS-1000 .701 .677 .7 .66 .665 .785 GREEN .695 .695 .695 .695 .695 .695 CHINA .694 .661 .644 .711 .694 .779 HACKERS .681 .681 .772 .772 .727 .818 EDU .666 .666 .666 .5 .666 .666 SOFTWARE .666 .666 .714 .714 .714 .777 TRANSP .65 .65 .6 .55 .6 .7 ELECTRON .648 .641 .703 .703 .728 .79 BIOTECH .645 .619 .669 .658 .658 .767 RETAIL .641 .641 .603 .509 .433 .603 COMPUTER .636 .636 .681 .636 .681 .681 BIG17 .63 .586 .652 .608 .63 .739 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 MILITARY .58 .483 .548 .516 .548 .709 CHEM .574 .555 .574 .611 .629 .722 BIGBANKS .571 0 .571 0 .285 .857 INDMATER .544 .556 .569 .544 .556 .797 INFRA .527 .472 .527 .472 .416 .833 AUTO .512 .461 .435 .384 .358 .589 ========================================================================================== JETS .5 .5 .3 .3 .4 .5 ========================================================================================= GOLD .47 .705 .725 .764 .745 .725 GUNS .47 .47 .529 .47 .411 .588 COMODITY .439 .512 .56 .585 .56 .585 FOOD .436 .509 .545 .545 .545 .545 FINANCE .431 .329 .431 .363 .329 .568 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 GAMING .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 .416 HOSPITAL .291 .291 .333 .416 .5 .541 REGBANKS .214 .178 .214 .035 .035 .285 |
=======================================================================
3/27/2019 The DJI's Head/Shoulders has NOT
been completed. So, trust our
Buy signals. The Closing Powers for DIA and QQQ continue to rise. The
all-important A/D Line is still rising. When the fall-out from Brexit is over,
I expect the rush into 10-year Bonds will subside along with all the discussion
about inversions of long and short-term yields. From my research, so long as
short-term
rates stay below 4%, corrections will likely be buying opportunities. All the past
cases of "Inversions" involved te Federal Fund Rates being well above 5% and
rising.
I suspect all the scare-talk about these rates now just serves the needs of JP Morgan and
Friends. But I could be wrong. We do not want to
see a lot of potential head/shoulders,
like Steel's, the DJI's and AAPL's bring breaks below their necklines. Watch
them and the Big Banks' stocks especially.
Stay mostly long. Our PEERLESS B4 and B18-B15 are fighting the very rapid fall of
the rates on the 10-year Bond and the failure of the Fed to lower short-term
rates.
When the 10-year rates drop below the 3-month rates, like now, we have what
is called an "Inversion" of rates. The track-record of this is said
to be bearish.
A lot of publicity is being given this pattern's bearish track record by big banks
like JP Morgan. But they may want to help their bond sales more than their
stock customers. See below link to the standard case for selling stocks now
because of the "Inversion Curve".
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251080-inverted-yield-curve-important
Here is half of the Problem - the rush into Government 10-yr Bonds.
The other half is that the FED should, but is not, lowering its Federal
Funds Rate.
Hooey!
applesauce
[slang], balderdash, baloney
(also boloney), beans, bilge, blah
(also blah-blah),
blarney, blather, blatherskite, blither, bosh, bull
[slang], bunk,
bunkum (or buncombe),
claptrap, codswallop
[British], crapola [slang], crock, drivel, drool, fiddle, fiddle-faddle,
fiddlesticks, flannel
[British], flapdoodle, folderol
(also falderal), folly, foolishness, fudge,
garbage, guff, hogwash, hokeypokey, hokum, hoodoo, horsefeathers
[slang], humbug,
humbuggery, jazz, malarkey
(also malarky), moonshine, muck, nerts
[slang], nonsense,
nuts,
piffle,
poppycock, punk, rot, rubbish, senselessness, silliness, slush, stupidity, taradiddle
(or tarradiddle), tommyrot, tosh, trash, trumpery, twaddle
But is the "INVERSION CURVE" reliable and should
it be applied now? I don't think so.
I did some new research on these past inversions. See the table below. In the first
place, the
maximum paper loss from using the inversions on the first of the month after they occur
is whopping 12.7% if one had sold short the DJI. This is way too much for us.
Peerless can
do much better.
Secondly, in each of the previous Inversion cases the Federal Funds Rate was at least
5.05%
and rising. The Federal Funds Rate now is now 2.378% and falling.
Thirdly, none of these "Inversions" since 1968 took place in the year before a
Presidential
Election. This matters because most often the incumbent Party in the White House
pulls out
all the stops to boost the economy and the stockmarket before the Election. The Fed
is also
particularly dovish, too, when that Party happens to be the Republican Party. And
usually,
the party out of power goes to great lengths to boost the economy, too. It wants
some of the
credit for a strong economy.
Fourth, I would suggest that it is Brexit's uncertainty that is the biggest reason that
10-year bonds are being so eagerly bought now and their rates have fallen so fast.
It is not that wealthy folks fear a recession next year. If that were true, I think
that the
market would already be in a big free-fall for fear that the Democrats would win back
the White House and, perhaps, the Senate in 2020. And then re-establish higher
corporate taxes and a lot more government regulations. Take a look at the similar
comments here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/26/el-erian-no-way-the-us-will-have-a-recession-this-year-or-in-2020.html
Inversion DJIA | 10-year Rate |
Fed. Funds Rate |
Market Top |
Months | %Decline | Paper Loss |
Peerless |
Apr 1 1968 861 | 5.64 | 5.76+.72 | Dec-68 | 8 | 861-637 | 861-983 -14.2% |
Buy B17 |
Feb 1 1973 986 |
6.64 | 6.58+.64 | Jan-73 | -1 | 986-578 | zero | 4 S9s at Jan.top |
Sept 1 1978 879 |
8.42 | 8.45+.41 | Sept-78 | 1 | 879-785 | 879-908 -3.3% |
S9 at top |
Oc 1 1980 939 |
11.75 | 12.81+1.94 | Apr-81 | 7 | 939-777 | 939-1024 -8.3% |
S15 at top |
Jan 1 1989 2169 |
9.09 | 9.12 +.36 | Jul-90 | 18 | 2169-2365 LOSS |
2169-3000 -38.3% |
S9 at top |
Jun 1 1998 8922 |
5.50 | 5.56 +.07 | Jul-98 | 1 | 8922-7539 | 8922-9338 -4.7% |
S12 just before top. |
Feb 1 2000 11041 |
6.52 | 5.73 +.28 | Jan-00 | -.5 | 11041-7286 | 11041-11723 -6.2% |
S9 at top |
July 1 2006 11191 |
5.09 | 5.24 +.25 | Oct-07 | 15 | 11191-6547 | 11192-14165 -26.6% |
S4 at top |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
AVG. | -12.7% |
Mar 27 2019 | 2.374 | 2.378 |
Charts 3/27/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/27/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-27/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-27/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/27/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.11 -.35 259.58 -23% Bearish RED .051 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 374.21 3.83 372.7 -26.3% Bullish BLUE .117 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 279.65 -1.47 284.73 -33.8% ------- RED .018 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 177.9 -1.15 182.57 -51.8% Bullish RED .073 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.24 -.24 347.42 -21.5% ------- RED -.041 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.27 -.59 155.27 -65.4% ------- RED -.116 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.88 -.65 63.23 -202.4% Bearish RED -.053 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.16 .89 29.02 158.9% Bearish BLUE-.275 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 132.18 -6.06 152.45 -211.8% ------- RED -.024 .4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 133.42 -2.21 145.63 -65.7% Bullish RED .079 .453 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.8 -1.53 111.97 -198.4% ------- RED .038 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.65 -.65 123.68 -21.3% Bearish RED -.007 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.99 -.14 17.75 -219.7% ------- RED -.076 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.81 -.31 21.47 -141.4% Bearish RED .031 -.027 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-27 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 139 Bullish NEWLOWS 15 MAXCP 21 MINCP 16 TTTNH 20 TTTNL 44 FASTUP 29 FASTDOWN 132 CPCROSSA 41 CPCROSSD 146 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 11 ACCUMVER 4 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 31 LOWACCUM 165 REDSELL 39 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 19 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/27/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish - 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 UTILITY .825 .875 .85 .825 .9 .9 HOMEBLDG .823 .764 .764 .705 .823 .705 REIT .798 .825 .751 .738 .852 .765 NIFTY .789 .842 .807 .824 .877 .894 INSURANC .766 .766 .7 .666 .766 .7 SOLAR .764 .705 .823 .823 .823 .882 ETFS .758 .81 .793 .775 .982 .965 INDEXES .74 .756 .745 .735 .8 .794 OILGAS .739 .767 .69 .739 .859 .845 NASD-100 .727 .787 .757 .777 .848 .828 SP500 .718 .748 .71 .71 .832 .81 SEMI .706 .775 .793 .801 .844 .836 GOLD .705 .725 .764 .745 .725 .764 FIDSTKS .697 .751 .691 .713 .843 .854 GREEN .695 .695 .695 .695 .695 .782 DJI-13 .692 .846 .692 .692 .846 .923 HACKERS .681 .772 .772 .727 .818 .818 RUS-1000 .677 .7 .658 .666 .784 .754 DOWJONES .666 .766 .666 .666 .833 .833 EDU .666 .666 .5 .666 .666 .666 SOFTWARE .666 .714 .714 .714 .777 .761 SP-100 .666 .752 .645 .666 .849 .86 CHINA .661 .644 .711 .694 .779 .762 TRANSP .65 .6 .55 .6 .7 .65 ELECTRON .641 .703 .703 .728 .79 .796 RETAIL .641 .603 .509 .433 .603 .584 COMPUTER .636 .681 .636 .681 .681 .681 BIOTECH .616 .669 .658 .658 .764 .748 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .611 .611 .666 .611 BIG17 .586 .652 .608 .63 .739 .739 INDMATER .556 .569 .544 .556 .797 .759 CHEM .555 .574 .611 .629 .74 .703 FOOD .517 .553 .553 .553 .553 .607 COMODITY .512 .56 .585 .56 .585 .634 =========================================================================================== JETS .5 .3 .3 .4 .5 .5 =========================================================================================== MILITARY .483 .548 .516 .548 .709 .709 INFRA .472 .527 .472 .416 .833 .75 GUNS .47 .529 .47 .411 .647 .588 AUTO .461 .435 .384 .358 .589 .461 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 FINANCE .333 .433 .377 .344 .588 .711 GAMING .333 .333 .333 .333 .416 .416 HOSPITAL .291 .333 .416 .5 .541 .5 REGBANKS .178 .214 .035 .035 .321 .357 BIGBANKS 0 .571 0 .285 .857 .857 |
========================================================================
3/26/2019 The PEERLESS B4,
B18-B15 combination should take the DJI
higher. Probably to 27000 by the Summer. But
we will need to see the DJI close
back above its 21-dma soon or else the (green) neckline near 25000 will
have to be tested. A close below the neckline at 25000 would have to be treated
as a Sell S10. It would also show us
that something unexpected and bearish is
troubling the market. Below I ask the question: Why is the Justice Department
switching tracks now so quickly to Obama Care when Trump is in a position to
do more victory laps about the Democrat's failure to prove any "Russia-Gate"?
Is it Brexit and overseas' selling that is causing the DJI now to be down 70? Is
it that passengers don't want to fly the Boeing MAX 747? That shouldn't be
a surprise. Is the vast amount of Debt suddenly a problem now because the inverted
yield curve is causing loans to be called in from fear of a recession?
Or perhaps this will prove a better time to buy. After all. the all-important A/D
Line is
confirming the advance at a rate that matches the bullish parallel case of a March
B18-B15 in 1975. Keep in mind that any DJI
move above the right shoulder apex
at 26300 should motivate the shorts to rush to cover and then we will likely see 27000
in May. But any break below 25000 would
complete a DJI head and shoulders
pattern and have to be used by us to sell and sell short.
Typically the DJI rallies nicely
after March 26th in the 3rd Year
of the Presidential Cycle. See the
data from 1965 - 2018 in our software.
Avg DJI Gain Pct of time DJI Rallies
10 days 1.6%
75%
21days 2.1%
75%
42 days 4.2%
75%
65 days 6.0%
81.3%
While it is true that the DJI and the other indexes could not hold their big early gains
today.
Still, there were nearly 1400 more up than down and the big bank stocks did not fall
further.
The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends. The leading tech stocks
did very well today, thus showing that speculative energies are still very much alive.
See the
QQQ and TECH charts via our links. I especially like the rising trend of our Index
of the "NIFTY" high volume tech stocks, whose chart is shown below.
NIFTY's Niftiest C:\nifty Days back= 62 Top 25 Pct. Gainers since Rally Started. 12 / 24 / 2018 - 3 / 26 / 2019 Rank Symbol Name Price Pct.Gain AI/200 --------- ----------------------------------- ---------- ------------ --------- 1 PAYC Paycom Software Inc 185.71 66% 133 2 ANET Arista Networks Inc 309.8 64% 70 3 XLNX Xilinx Inc 126.63 59% 166 4 AMD Advanced Micro Devices 25.69 54% 137 5 NFLX Netflix Inc 359.97 53% 105 6 RNG RingCentral` Inc. 108.19 53% 137 7 KLAC Kla-Tencor Corp 120.04 47% 111 8 LRCX Lam Research Corp 180.05 46% 64 9 COHR Coherent Inc 136.56 44% 128 10 CREE Cree Incorporated 55.82 44% 137 11 PANW Palo Alto Networks` Inc. 244.2 43% 89 12 ALGN Align Tech Inc 274.27 41% 170 13 SNPS Synopsys Inc 112.4 41% 152 14 INTU Intuit Inc 255.99 40% 161 15 NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 176.87 39% 94 16 MU Micron Technology Inc 40.32 38% 86 17 AMAT Applied Materials Inc 39.63 36% 80 18 ALRM Alarm.com Holdings Inc 62.72 35% 138 19 BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 178.08 35% 100 20 FB Facebook Inc 167.68 35% 89 21 ADI Analog Devices Inc 107.1 33% 135 22 AMZN Amazon-Com Inc 1783.76 32% 122 23 CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 53.23 32% 131 24 ADSK Autodesk Inc 155.91 31% 116 25 CRM Salesforce.com Inc 159.4 31% 149 |
Giving The Democrats Something To Campaign
On:
Why? What's The Problem?
I
Small intra-day pullbacks, like today's are fairly common when the market must eat up
over-head supplies of stock. There does seem to be quite a bit of resistance up to
26000,
but I would trust the bullish seasonality of Spring and the politics of the year before
the Presidential
Election Year along with interest rates that are well below the 4% danger-level. But, as
always, we should be watchful of the market it when it fails to achive our expections.
Trump's Justice Department now wants to throw out all of Obamacare. Health care for all
would
seem to a very strong card for the Democrats. I always thought that Social Security
and
Medicare were the "third rail" of politcs. In other words, he who
threatens to take away these
benefits from seniors and near-seniors could be politically electrocuted.
Just why would Trump give the Democrats a new issue to run with? Why not relax a
little
and let the Democrats squirm a little longer on their failure to prove a link between the
President and the Russian Government in the 2016 Election? That coupled with a
strong
economy could be all he needs in 2020.
It's odd, I've been thinking all day about this. Do they not want to win
because they know
a market Crash is coming? Ideological purity? An out of control Justice
Department?
I don't know. The New York Times raised the very same question tonight. Does
it
mean that the Federal Budget's deficit is ballooning so much that soon we will see more
and
more efforts to cut popular Federal Government spending, possibly in ways that could
back-fire
on Republicans just when they should be able to get lots of credit for a strong economy
and
stock market? Perhaps, this will prevent the usual Spring Rally in this the third
year of the
four-year cycle. Since Insiders will probably
know first, we must watch the Professionals through
our Closing Power and we should probably consider any decline much below the lower band
in the next few weeks to be a bad sign, a sign that the normally bullish Spring
seasonality
is being challenged by something abnormal, bearish and unexpected. .
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/us/politics/democrats-trump-affordable-care-act.html
Charts 3/25/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/26/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-26/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-26/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/26/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.46 1.39 257.29 -47.1% Bearish RED .043 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 370.38 -.08 376.16 -41.1% ------- RED .099 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.12 2.08 281.55 -22.7% ------- BLUE .009 .016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 179.05 .83 179.76 0% Bullish RED .09 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.48 3.34 342.71 -60.2% ------- BLUE -.116 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.86 1.58 153.26 -101.5% ------- BLUE -.162 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.53 1.89 62.34 -364.9% Bearish BLUE -.052 .16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.27 .58 28.27 -124.4% Bearish ---- -.276 -.063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 138.24 4.08 138.13 -139.4% ------- RED -.01 .397 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 135.63 2.17 135.22 -35.4% Bullish RED .094 .439 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.33 2.01 113.18 -158.4% ------- BLUE .045 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 124.3 -.62 124.18 37.1% ------- RED .05 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.13 .22 17.75 -92.2% ------- ---- -.094 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 7.73 .36 8.14 129.2% ------- --- - .008 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.12 -.08 21.41 -25.9% ------- RED .077 -.016 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-26 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 199 Bullish NEWLOWS 11 MAXCP 49 MINCP 23 TTTNH 32 TTTNL 34 FASTUP 34 FASTDOWN 130 CPCROSSA 61 CPCROSSD 55 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 8 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 12 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 165 REDSELL 40 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 18 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/26/19 Bullish =39 Bearish = 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .99 .99 .98 UTILITY .875 .85 .825 .9 .9 .925 DJI-13 .846 .692 .692 .846 .923 .923 NIFTY .842 .807 .824 .877 .894 .877 REIT .825 .751 .738 .852 .765 .758 ETFS .81 .793 .775 .982 .965 .982 NASD-100 .787 .757 .777 .848 .818 .858 SEMI .775 .793 .801 .844 .836 .853 HACKERS .772 .772 .727 .818 .818 .818 DOWJONES .766 .666 .666 .833 .833 .866 INSURANC .766 .7 .666 .766 .7 .8 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .705 .823 .705 .764 OILGAS .762 .685 .734 .853 .832 .783 INDEXES .758 .741 .731 .795 .79 .811 SP-100 .752 .645 .666 .849 .838 .881 FIDSTKS .751 .691 .713 .843 .843 .875 SP500 .748 .71 .71 .832 .806 .855 GOLD .725 .764 .745 .725 .764 .666 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .714 .777 .761 .809 SOLAR .705 .823 .823 .823 .882 .941 ELECTRON .703 .703 .728 .79 .796 .802 RUS-1000 .7 .658 .665 .785 .753 .803 GREEN .695 .695 .695 .695 .782 .826 COMPUTER .681 .636 .681 .681 .681 .681 BIOTECH .666 .658 .658 .764 .743 .759 EDU .666 .5 .666 .666 .666 .666 BIG17 .652 .608 .63 .739 .739 .76 CHINA .644 .711 .694 .779 .762 .796 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .611 .666 .611 .666 RETAIL .603 .509 .433 .603 .584 .716 TRANSP .6 .55 .6 .7 .65 .7 CHEM .574 .611 .629 .74 .722 .722 BIGBANKS .571 0 .285 .857 .857 1 INDMATER .569 .544 .556 .797 .759 .759 COMODITY .56 .585 .56 .585 .634 .609 FOOD .553 .553 .553 .553 .607 .571 MILITARY .548 .516 .548 .709 .709 .709 GUNS .529 .47 .411 .647 .588 .588 INFRA .527 .472 .416 .833 .75 .805 ============================================================================================== AUTO .435 .384 .358 .589 .461 .564 FINANCE .433 .366 .344 .588 .722 .877 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 GAMING .333 .333 .333 .416 .416 .416 HOSPITAL .333 .416 .5 .541 .5 .5 JETS .3 .3 .4 .5 .5 .5 REGBANKS .214 .035 .035 .321 .357 .857 |
========================================================================
3/25/2019 We should be
buyers of DIA, SPY and QQQ again. Seasonality is
short-term now very bullish. The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY and QQQ are still
rising.
I would rate Peerless as very bullish, especially when you look at how many ways the
charts of March 1975 and March March 2019 look alike. Peerless is still operating
under
a reliable and quite B4, B18-B15 combination. Usually when this Peerless
combination, the B18-B15 buy signals, is at work in March, the DJI is making 12 month
highs. But there are two exceptions, now and that of March 1975. The earlier
instance
turned out to have been an excellent place to Buy. We should not that now.
It's true that there was no interest rate "inversion" back then. Rates were
then simply coming
down from very high levels. It's also true that 1974 represented the end of a long
24-month
bear market. But the similarities between March 1975 and
March 2019 are striking, Both had
January take-offs. Both had B18-B15s as of March. Both showed potential
up-sloping Head and Shoulders that were never completed! And most important, both
benefitted from the same strongly bullish seasonality of occurring in the third year of
the four
year cycle. In addition, their OBV had already made 9-month new highs in March.
Compare the Peerless charts of March 1975 and March
2019 just below.
1975
2019
The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY and QQQ are still in
rising trends.
Let's see if Big Banks can turn up soon.
That could become quite bullish. As I've
said, short-term interest rates may fall to get
back below the 10-year rates. With Inflation
so low, I can't see the 10-year rates falling much
lower.
Charts 3/25/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/25/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-25/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-25/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/25/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 255.07 .11 258.88 -76% Bearish BLUE .013 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 370.46 8.29 373.43 -24.5% ------- BLUE .097 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 279.04 -.21 282.4 -58.3% Bearish BLUE-.038 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.22 -.34 179.05 -6.4% Bullish BLUE .067 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 338.14 .8 345.6 -134.1% Bearish BLUE-.148 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.28 .66 154.96 -177.9% Bearish BLUE-.197 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 58.64 -.46 65.03 -605.2% Bearish RED -.13 .131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27.69 .94 28.97 -305.4% Bearish BLUE-.29 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 134.16 -5.32 142.18 -96.2% ------- RED -.045 .4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 133.46 -1.53 136.6 -92.2% Bullish RED .058 .414 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.32 .15 113.85 -249.5% ------- RED .036 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 124.92 .95 123.38 76% ------- BLUE .031 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.91 -.04 17.45 -177.3% Bearish BLUE-.065 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.2 .3 21.23 -23.5% ------- BLUE .076 -.012 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190325 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 151 Bullish NEWLOWS 26 MAXCP 33 MINCP 19 TTTNH 24 TTTNL 38 FASTUP 32 FASTDOWN 199 CPCROSSA 55 CPCROSSD 71 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 9 HIGHIP21 9 HIUPPCT 9 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 170 REDSELL 35 AUGSELS7 12 TRAPDOOR 20
|
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/25/19 Bullish = 35 Bearish = 10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .99 .98 .98 UTILITY .85 .825 .9 .9 .9 .925 SOLAR .823 .823 .823 .882 .941 .941 NIFTY .807 .824 .877 .894 .877 .894 ETFS .793 .775 .982 .965 .982 .948 SEMI .793 .801 .844 .836 .853 .853 HACKERS .772 .727 .818 .818 .818 .909 GOLD .764 .745 .725 .764 .686 .666 HOMEBLDG .764 .705 .823 .705 .764 .764 NASD-100 .757 .777 .848 .818 .858 .868 REIT .751 .738 .852 .765 .758 .778 INDEXES .741 .731 .795 .79 .806 .774 SOFTWARE .714 .714 .777 .761 .809 .841 CHINA .711 .694 .779 .762 .796 .796 SP500 .71 .71 .832 .806 .853 .848 ELECTRON .703 .728 .79 .796 .802 .808 INSURANC .7 .666 .766 .7 .8 .8 GREEN .695 .695 .695 .782 .826 .826 DJI-13 .692 .692 .846 .923 .923 .846 FIDSTKS .691 .713 .843 .843 .875 .875 OILGAS .69 .739 .859 .838 .781 .823 DOWJONES .666 .666 .833 .833 .866 .833 RUS-1000 .658 .665 .784 .754 .802 .81 BIOTECH .656 .658 .764 .743 .753 .74 SP-100 .645 .666 .849 .838 .881 .87 COMPUTER .636 .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .666 .611 .666 .666 CHEM .611 .629 .74 .722 .759 .74 BIG17 .608 .63 .739 .739 .76 .782 COMODITY .585 .56 .585 .634 .609 .585 FOOD .553 .553 .553 .607 .571 .553 TRANSP .55 .6 .7 .65 .7 .75 INDMATER .544 .556 .797 .759 .784 .784 MILITARY .516 .548 .709 .709 .709 .709 RETAIL .509 .433 .603 .584 .716 .641 ========================================================================================== EDU .5 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 ========================================================================================== INFRA .472 .416 .833 .75 .805 .833 GUNS .47 .411 .647 .588 .647 .647 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 HOSPITAL .416 .5 .541 .5 .5 .5 AUTO .384 .358 .589 .461 .564 .564 FINANCE .366 .333 .588 .722 .877 .9 GAMING .333 .333 .416 .416 .416 .416 JETS .3 .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 REGBANKS .035 .035 .321 .357 .857 .964 BIGBANKS 0 .285 .857 .857 1 1 |
======================================================================
3/22/2019 Peerless is still
operating under a reliable B4, B18-B15 combination.
But short-term, more weakness has to be expected because all the ETFs shown in
Table 1 below have falling or "bearish" Closing Powers and/or Candle-sticks.
Moreover, a completed head and shoulders pattern with a DJI close below 25000 would
have to be accorded a Sell S10. Such S10 signals should be judged to be on the safe
side, even if there is no automatic Peerless Sell. The reasons for this are:
1) Head/shoulders patterns are reliable. 2) We saw many, many Sell S9s last year.
So, some serious strains and stresses have been put into the market. 3) H/S patterns
tell us that the market is quickly absorbing some unexpected bad news. 4) The DJI
has not had a 20% decline since the one that ended on March 7th, 2009. Only the
1947-1959 bull market lasted longer. A Republican President also brought that
one to
pass. He was much helped by short-term interest rates that stayed below 4% except
just before the DJI's 19% decline in the Fall of 1957 was starting.
Now we are told that the 10-year rates have dropped
below the 3-month rates.
Inversions do have a bearish track record. Lots of traders know this. And, if
fact,
the 10-year bonds have fallen rapidly this past week. There is a quick exiting
of big money into bonds when they consider stocks unsafe. But another factor should
be considered, namely just how low short-term rates are. That, it seems from what I have
studied, is inherently bullish. Locking in a 2.5% rate at a time when the CPI is
rising just as
fast, is no great bargain. Stocks in this environment, I believe, will remain
attractive
and should not be sold too quickly, especially in the bullish seasonal period we are still
in.
But we should watch QQQ's Closing Power. It topped out
more than two months
after the DJI did in 2000. As long as its Closing Power is rising, I would assume
there
is more upside potential for tech stocks. The DJI, on the other hand, has Boeing's
problems to contend with, but even BA is looking better now that it has fallen to its
200-day
ma and Professionals remain surprisingly Bullish. See QQQ and BA below. So,
I suspect will see a turnaround to the upside later this week.
What could change my optimism that the Peerless buy
signals will still work out
due to the past bullish seasonality until May would be more big volume down-days by the
bank stocks. Unpaid Debt and Massive Consumer and Corporate Debt is a real
problem now. BAC has just had a serious breakdown. Now we must watch
CitiGroup.
Where the big banks as a group go, so does the DJI usually.
C is at key support.
BAC seems to have broken down.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peerless Update - March 2019 - After a lot of thought
and nudging by some of you, I have
revised Peerless as of Sunday to show a Oct-Dec Buy B16 when the DJI drops almost
20% on December 24th last year. As set up now, this worked our profitably every
time.
I delayed the S12 on the rally in January until the DJI was more than 2% above the 21-day
ma. This had not adverse effect on the Peerless track record. And I raised from
2.35% to
2.45% the upper band for the S9Vs that were triggered last Summer. This helped in
July's
case but prevented April's valid S9V. Email me if
you want this update for $85. It has been
posted on the ESP Page.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charts 3/22/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/22/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-22/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-22/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/22/19 All Closing Powers are marked Bearish and Candle-Sticks are RED. ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 254.96 -4.62 258.99 -65.3% Bearish RED .025 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 362.17 -10.53 372.28 -224.4% ------- RED .082 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 279.25 -5.48 282.33 -36.5% Bearish RED -.006 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.56 -4.01 178.45 5.8% ------- RED .076 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 337.34 -10.08 347.37 -107.2% Bearish RED -.121 -.007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.62 -5.65 155.75 -166% Bearish RED -.178 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.1 -4.13 66.29 -470.4% Bearish RED -.109 .151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.75 -2.27 29.43 -366.6% Bearish RED -.283 -.15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 139.48 -12.97 136.89 59.7% ------- RED .013 .497 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 134.99 -10.64 136 23.3% ------- RED .095 .446 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.17 -3.8 113.92 -265.8% ------- RED .034 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.9 -.57 21.3 7.1% Bearish RED .041 -.025 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190322 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 121 NEWLOWS 43 MAXCP 30 MINCP 29 TTTNH 17 TTTNL 58 FASTUP 33 FASTDOWN 159 CPCROSSA 20 CPCROSSD 507 heavy professional sellin BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 19 ACCUMVER 17 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 180 REDSELL 28 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 22 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/22/19 Bullish =35 Bearish =10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .99 .98 .98 .98 UTILITY .825 .9 .9 .9 .925 .925 NIFTY .824 .877 .894 .877 .894 .912 SOLAR .823 .823 .882 .941 .941 .941 SEMI .801 .844 .836 .853 .853 .836 NASD-100 .777 .848 .818 .858 .868 .858 ETFS .775 .982 .965 .982 .965 .913 GOLD .745 .725 .764 .686 .666 .725 REIT .738 .852 .765 .758 .778 .778 INDEXES .736 .795 .79 .806 .774 .784 OILGAS .734 .853 .832 .776 .811 .734 ELECTRON .728 .79 .796 .802 .808 .796 HACKERS .727 .818 .818 .818 .909 .863 SOFTWARE .714 .777 .761 .809 .825 .809 FIDSTKS .713 .843 .843 .875 .875 .87 SP500 .71 .832 .806 .853 .848 .846 HOMEBLDG .705 .823 .705 .764 .764 .764 GREEN .695 .695 .782 .826 .826 .826 CHINA .694 .779 .762 .796 .796 .83 DJI-13 .692 .846 .923 .923 .846 .923 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 DOWJONES .666 .833 .833 .866 .833 .866 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 INSURANC .666 .766 .7 .8 .8 .8 SP-100 .666 .849 .838 .881 .87 .86 RUS-1000 .665 .784 .753 .803 .811 .797 BIOTECH .656 .764 .743 .753 .732 .711 BIG17 .63 .739 .739 .76 .782 .739 CHEM .629 .74 .722 .759 .759 .722 BEVERAGE .611 .666 .611 .666 .666 .722 TRANSP .6 .7 .65 .7 .75 .75 COMODITY .56 .585 .634 .609 .585 .56 INDMATER .556 .797 .759 .784 .784 .772 FOOD .553 .553 .607 .571 .553 .535 MILITARY .548 .709 .709 .709 .709 .709 HOSPITAL .5 .541 .5 .5 .5 .458 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETAIL .433 .603 .584 .716 .641 .641 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 INFRA .416 .833 .75 .805 .833 .777 GUNS .411 .647 .588 .647 .647 .647 JETS .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 AUTO .358 .589 .461 .564 .564 .538 FINANCE .333 .577 .722 .877 .9 .888 GAMING .333 .416 .416 .416 .416 .5 BIGBANKS .285 .857 .857 1 1 1 REGBANKS .035 .321 .357 .857 .964 .964 |
====================================================================
3/21/2019 The Peerless B4, B19 and B15
signals have not been reversed
but the DJI remains unable to break above its resistance at approximately 26300
and the concerns about Boeing's degree of culpability for 2 major plane
crashes in just a few months keeps growing and keeps all it 747 MAX planes
grounded. Because BA will exert a disproprtionate effect on the DJI-30, I
suggest
we watch the A/D Line uptrend and the Closing Power uptrendlines for QQQ
and SPY especially closely. We were sellers of IWM and SOXL today. So,
now we should be waiting for a retreat in them to buy again. The tech sector may
conveniently retreat a little now for a few days.
The SP-500 stocks made a recovery high today.
So did their own A/D Line. 83% are above the
support of their 65-dma. Support should be strong.
QQQ's Closing Power remains in a clear uptrend, Perhaps,
a little overbought, but probably in no danger. This casts a
bullish light on the strongest sectors, the big high techs
represented by our "Nifty" stocks, SOXL and TECL.
Charts 3/21/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/21/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-21/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-21/BEARISH.htm |
Watch The Number of New Lows
and The Weakest Sectors.
How the market reacts to news is always
important. The FED's keeping
interest rates unchanged can be seen as bullish because low interest rates help
make stocks attractive, but low rates also can be seen as bearish if the economy is
weakening much more than was expected.
There is a growing divide between the bulls and bears.
To the extent that high
techs are strong, we see great confidence in the more risky, high growth sector.
The strength in the great high-techs, particularly in our "NIFTY", SOXL and
TECL, shows lots of confidence among the bulls now. Their indexes made new
highs today. So did, the OEX and SP-500. All their Closing Powers are
uptrending.
But clearly, profit-taking and lower volume is blunting their ability to rally
straight-up.
and eat up the remaining resistance overhead. "
What we should know is that in 2000 and 2007, these high techs and the SP-500
topped out later than the DJI. In fact, they only started to sell off at their own
tops when QQQ broke its price and Closing Power uptrendlines. So watch the QQQ.
What we also have to worry about are that the laggard groups
will start breaking down
and diverge even more widely from the nifty high techs. Will a decline now make
more of the laggards breakdown? That will worry the bulls. But not enough yet,
to cause a big
decline. Watch also for air-pockets in individual stocks. And, of course, more
head and shoulders tops. So, far there are not many of either.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/21/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 259.58 2.29 258.34 39.5% ------- BLUE .104 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 372.7 -3.46 378.99 -8% Bullish RED .117 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 284.73 3.18 281.31 63.4% ------- BLUE .079 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 182.57 2.81 178.35 164.2% ------- BLUE .184 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.42 4.71 344.75 30.4% Bearish BLUE -.018 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.27 2.01 154.76 29.8% Bearish BLUE -.095 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63.23 .89 65.16 -81.2% Bearish BLUE -.03 .234 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 152.45 14.32 137.79 938.3% ------- BLUE .057 .75 ^^^^^^ ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 145.63 10.41 134.35 592.7% Bullish BLUE .212 .6 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.97 -1.21 114.2 -44.9% ------- BLUE .083 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.68 -.5 122.97 51.5% Bearish RED -.058 -.073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.75 0 16.99 181.4% ------- ---- -.073 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.73 .19 20.47 99.9% ------- BLUE .075 -.073 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190321 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 268 Bullish NEWLOWS 17 MAXCP 67 MINCP 9 TTTNH 44 TTTNL 13 FASTUP 76 FASTDOWN 58 CPCROSSA 231 CPCROSSD 27 BIGVOLUP 4 BIGVODN 15 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 10 VHIP21 33 LOWACCUM 172 REDSELL 35 AUGSELS7 16 TRAPDOOR 22 |
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/21/19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .99 .98 .98 .98 .98 ETFS .982 .965 .982 .965 .913 .844 UTILITY .9 .9 .9 .925 .925 .95 NIFTY .877 .894 .877 .894 .912 .877 BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 1 1 1 OILGAS .853 .832 .776 .811 .734 .755 REIT .852 .765 .758 .778 .778 .798 SP-100 .849 .838 .881 .87 .86 .86 NASD-100 .848 .818 .858 .868 .868 .818 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 SEMI .844 .836 .853 .853 .836 .836 FIDSTKS .843 .843 .875 .875 .87 .854 DOWJONES .833 .833 .866 .833 .866 .866 INFRA .833 .75 .805 .833 .777 .777 SP500 .832 .806 .853 .848 .848 .84 HOMEBLDG .823 .705 .764 .764 .764 .882 SOLAR .823 .882 .941 .941 .941 .941 HACKERS .818 .818 .818 .909 .863 .818 INDMATER .797 .759 .784 .784 .759 .759 INDEXES .795 .79 .806 .774 .784 .784 ELECTRON .79 .796 .802 .808 .796 .802 RUS-1000 .784 .753 .802 .812 .798 .797 CHINA .779 .762 .796 .796 .83 .762 SOFTWARE .777 .761 .809 .825 .809 .793 INSURANC .766 .7 .8 .8 .8 .766 BIOTECH .761 .743 .753 .732 .711 .708 CHEM .74 .722 .759 .759 .74 .759 BIG17 .739 .739 .76 .782 .739 .695 GOLD .725 .764 .686 .666 .725 .725 MILITARY .709 .709 .709 .709 .709 .741 TRANSP .7 .65 .7 .75 .75 .75 GREEN .695 .782 .826 .826 .826 .826 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .681 .681 .727 BEVERAGE .666 .611 .666 .666 .722 .611 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GUNS .647 .588 .647 .647 .647 .647 RETAIL .603 .584 .716 .641 .641 .584 AUTO .589 .461 .564 .564 .538 .487 COMODITY .585 .634 .609 .585 .56 .585 FINANCE .577 .722 .877 .9 .888 .877 FOOD .553 .607 .571 .553 .535 .5 HOSPITAL .541 .5 .5 .5 .458 .458 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .571 GAMING .416 .416 .416 .416 .5 .416 REGBANKS .321 .357 .857 .964 .964 .928 |
====================================================================
3/20/2019 The Peerless B4, B19 and
B15 signals have not been reversed.
Because interest rates are low and not threatening to rise above 3%, I think we
should believe that there is more upside, if not in the DJI then in the strongest
sectors and ETFs. As long as the Closing Powers for SOXL, TECL and QQQ
have been rising, I have said to hold them or sell them on strength.
But today SOXL has slightly broken its steep CP uptrend, so take profits in it. IWM,
which I suggested buying in place of the DJI has become more problematic. Its
Accumulation Index has now fallen into negative territory and its Closing Power uptrend
has been replaced by a new declining trend. I think prudent traders have to sell it.
Still
very bullish are QQQ, TQQQ and TECL. If there is a decline, these are the ETFs I
would
buy when a bounce is signalled.
Bank stocks endured a lot of selling. They usually turn with the DJI. So, this
poses
a short term problem. Regional banks are probably selling off because flat interest
rates do not offer the banks an excuse to raise their rates on consumers! Talk of a
slow-down
in the economy hit auto-makers particularly hard. We will show them tomorrow night.
Note in the ETF charts today, that we see red and now blue optimized
Buys and Sells. The red shows the signal from the best system for the
last year. The blue arrows show the Buys and Sells from the second
best system. The idea here is that if both signals are in accord, they
are more likely to be right.
The IP21 in IWM has gone from above +.50 to negative territory in
less than 5 weeks. This is does not happen often. I will test such occurrences
and report back the results in a day or two. A quickening of the decline of
the IP21 is bearish. And as you know, the dropping by the IP21-AI below
its 21-dma after a steep advance is a warning of a top. Let me focus on the
significance of these developments going back to 2000 tomorrow night.
Banks Stocks Usually Move with Peerless
So more weakness from C, JPM and GS would be of concern.
If the more gradual Closing Power uptrends are violated, the DIA
would likely need to re-test 25000.
Today the Fed warned that the economy may be somehat weaker than they had expected.
This should
surprise no one. The last Jobs Report was a "feeble" +20,000.
Presumably, some of
the weakness owed to Trump's delay in signing the Federal Budget. At the least, more
than one low number is needed to discern a downtrend here. Still, the Fed's new
concern
about the US economy dropped the Dollar below its 21-day ma. and that caused a drop
in the big banks stocks today because they fear "hot international money" might
leave the US if
the Dollar should start a downtrend. The FED is now officially saying that they will
probably hold
steady interest rates until 2020.
Monthly Jobs Reports.
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | -783 | -742 | -803 | -694 | -344 | -465 | -341 | -184 | -242 | -198 | 12 | -269 |
2010 | 3 | -92 | 180 | 237 | 534 | -136 | -88 | -5 | -64 | 269 | 123 | 74 |
2011 | 20 | 213 | 232 | 321 | 95 | 235 | 61 | 122 | 236 | 204 | 132 | 204 |
2012 | 355 | 262 | 238 | 83 | 99 | 72 | 153 | 170 | 189 | 158 | 158 | 237 |
2013 | 195 | 279 | 136 | 192 | 224 | 181 | 105 | 242 | 189 | 225 | 267 | 67 |
2014 | 177 | 168 | 250 | 327 | 221 | 324 | 227 | 188 | 311 | 258 | 286 | 269 |
2015 | 213 | 248 | 77 | 300 | 319 | 170 | 293 | 122 | 133 | 339 | 235 | 280 |
2016 | 90 | 232 | 234 | 211 | 15 | 282 | 336 | 135 | 270 | 128 | 170 | 215 |
2017 | 252 | 141 | 127 | 213 | 128 | 229 | 204 | 187 | 18 | 260 | 220 | 174 |
2018 | 171 | 330 | 182 | 196 | 270 | 262 | 178 | 282 | 108 | 277 | 196 | 227 |
2019 | 311(P) | 20(P) | ||||||||||
P : preliminary |
GS failed its marginal breakout today.
It is sitting on its price uptrend.
Its Closing Power is forming a head/shoulders
JPM was turned back downward by the resistance at
the top of its price-channel. More weakness by its Closing Power
would add to the bearishness of its Red Sell and now negative
ITRS and IP21. That JPM cannot gain some traction here
is a warning that there is a lot of Debt that may not be paid off.
That is the biggest over-hanging cloud for the American markets
and elsewhere, too.
Charts 3/20/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/20/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-20/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-20/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/20/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.29 -1.59 257.54 -1.2% Bearish RED .089 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 376.16 2.73 373.3 -13.1% Bullish BLUE .158 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.55 -.85 281.16 3.7% Bearish RED .057 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 179.76 .71 176.71 77.3% Bullish BLUE .136 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 342.71 -2.89 345.32 -43.8% Bearish RED -.03 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.26 -1.7 154.35 -55.5% Bearish RED -.109 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 62.34 -2.69 64.28 -98.6% Bearish RED -.033 .233 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.27 -.7 29.09 -374.6% Bearish RED -.223 -.072 ------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- SOXL 138.13 -4.05 126.86 337% ------- RED .004 .55 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 135.22 -1.38 129.7 234% Bullish RED .164 .519 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.18 -.67 112.99 -5.3% ------- RED .02 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.41 .18 20.62 183.9% Bullish BLUE .05 -.007 |
Count of Stocks in Key Directories Table 2 20190320 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 116 NEWLOWS 24 MAXCP 27 MINCP 18 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 40 FASTUP 58 FASTDOWN 64 CPCROSSA 56 CPCROSSD 112 BIGVOLUP 1 BIGVODN 7 ACCUMVER 17 HIGHIP21 11 HIUPPCT 9 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 166 REDSELL 35 AUGSELS7 20 TRAPDOOR 21 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/20/19 Bullish = 40 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .98 .98 .98 .98 .98 ETFS .965 .982 .965 .913 .844 .862 DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 UTILITY .9 .9 .925 .925 .95 .95 NIFTY .894 .877 .894 .912 .877 .877 SOLAR .882 .941 .941 .941 .941 .941 BIGBANKS .857 1 1 1 1 1 FIDSTKS .843 .875 .875 .87 .854 .854 SP-100 .838 .881 .87 .86 .86 .86 SEMI .836 .853 .853 .836 .836 .844 DOWJONES .833 .866 .833 .866 .866 .866 OILGAS .832 .776 .811 .734 .748 .755 HACKERS .818 .818 .909 .863 .818 .863 NASD-100 .818 .858 .868 .868 .838 .828 SP500 .806 .853 .848 .848 .84 .853 ELECTRON .796 .802 .808 .796 .802 .814 INDEXES .79 .806 .774 .784 .79 .79 GREEN .782 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 REIT .765 .758 .778 .778 .791 .798 GOLD .764 .686 .666 .725 .725 .803 CHINA .762 .796 .796 .83 .762 .796 SOFTWARE .761 .809 .825 .809 .793 .761 INDMATER .759 .784 .784 .759 .772 .784 RUS-1000 .753 .802 .811 .799 .797 .808 INFRA .75 .805 .833 .777 .777 .833 BIOTECH .74 .753 .732 .711 .708 .719 BIG17 .739 .76 .782 .739 .695 .739 CHEM .722 .759 .759 .74 .777 .759 FINANCE .722 .877 .9 .888 .877 .877 MILITARY .709 .709 .709 .709 .709 .774 HOMEBLDG .705 .764 .764 .764 .882 .882 INSURANC .7 .8 .8 .8 .766 .8 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .681 .727 .727 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 TRANSP .65 .7 .75 .75 .75 .75 COMODITY .634 .609 .585 .56 .56 .634 FOOD .618 .581 .563 .545 .49 .581 BEVERAGE .611 .666 .666 .722 .611 .611 GUNS .588 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 RETAIL .584 .716 .641 .641 .603 .773 =========================================================================================== HOSPITAL .5 .5 .5 .458 .458 .416 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 =========================================================================================== AUTO .461 .564 .564 .538 .487 .641 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .571 .571 GAMING .416 .416 .416 .5 .458 .458 REGBANKS .357 .857 .964 .964 .928 .928 |
================================================================================
3/19/2019 Seasonality, Peerless and
current technicals argue persusasively that the DJI
has a very good chance of reaching 27000 before the Summer doldrums intrude and cause
another profit-taking decline. But of course, there could be some bearish surprises,
such as a much
more damning Muller Report than seems the case now, a breakoff by China of the tariff and
trade
talks with the Trump Administration, news of coverup by Boeing of basic design flaws
it knew
about in the MAX737 or possibly such a quick rise in inflation from the monthly CPI and
wage
reports that the FED will raise rates despite the political pressure on it to do nothing
for now.
If any of these bearish news items were about to come out, I would expect Professionals to
become heavy sellers before the news and we would then see breaks in the still rising
Closing
Powers for DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM and SOXL. But all are still rising now. So, lets
just hold
our current positions, including SOXL.
Semi-Conductors Moving Up
SOXL did not quite reach the level recommended for selling today. Just hold
it
long now. (Our sell was for 5% above yesterday's close.) My view now is that
its breakout could take it above 200. Since both its Opening Power and Closing Power
are rising, it is now in a potentially "vertical ascent" mode. Amazingly, it has
out-performed
the DJI by a whopping 68.5% over the last 50 trading days.
The Tiger Index of the 7 most heavily weighted stocks in the SOXL is now making very
bullish all-time highs. These seven are its leaders. Until they break
their individual Closing Power
uptrends, I would think SOXL will keep rising. They are AVGO, INTC, TXN, NVDA, QCOM,
XLNX and ADI. Of these XLNX is the highest power-ranked in both our SOXL and NIFTY
Tech lists..
Of all the Semi-conductors we follow LSCC is the top Power-ranked. It has
appeared in many
of the Bullish listings. Note how it met all the conditions for an augmented Buy B24
several weeks ago.
The augmented B24s criteria appear in the Bullish MAXCPs link. Rarely would we want
to
chase a stock like this was at 11.5 on February 14th, but our back-testing shows
that these
augmented B24s average gains of well-over 24% over the next 12 months. These results
were for
the period 1990-2006. I will post them tomorrow night on the Bullish MAXCPs page.
Boeing - Too Complicated a Plane? Bureaucratic
Laziness? Corporate Coverup?
Plenty of room for blame.... But we need to find out the truth...
The Boeing drama continues. As every point BA falls
means a 7 point drop in the
DJI-30, we must follow the saga here. There are reports that the day before the
Indonesian
Lion 737 MAX crashed a year ago, a similar episode developed. Fortunately, in the
cockpit sat a hitch-hiking pilot who knew how to save that plane from its nose-dive
into the sea. He got the regular pilots to immediately disable BA's anti-stall
software
that was causing plane's nose to turn dangerously down. The NY Times tonight makes
much of the dangers of this software intervention, especially when just one sensor reading
shows that a stall situation is developing. They also point to the conflicts of
interest
that naturally arise when the FAA's certification testing is left mainly to Boeing itself.
They raise the question of de-regulation being carried too far as when the FAA failed to
look
into other reports for the last year that pointed to the risks of giving so much power to
the
software itself. It appears to me that the worst development for BA would be that it
turns
out that Boeing has knowingly built an airplane that had too weighty an engine for
its placement
on the plane's body and then decided to fix the problem with corrective software but
failed to emphasize the risks and how to handle them in its training, even after the first
crash.
And that it did so entirely because of the costs of basic re-design and because it feared
it would lose customers. In other words, the stock's huge advance owes to corners it
cut in the plane's development. Of course, Boeing is exceedingly powerful and it may
take a long time for all the relevant facts to come out. Meanwhile, BA is under a
very big
cloud and that makes SPY and the SP-500 better indexes to follow, in my opinion.
See https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/business/boeing-elaine-chao.html
and comments
after the article.
Charts 3/19/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/19/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-19/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-19/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/19/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 258.88 -.11 257.35 58.6% ------- RED .119 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.43 1.15 377.14 -26.4% Bullish BLUE .173 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.4 .07 281.34 51.8% Bullish RED .082 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 179.05 .6 177.01 94.8% Bullish RED .138 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.6 -1.77 345.74 20.3% Bearish RED .011 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.96 -.79 154.98 19.1% Bearish RED -.066 .025 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.03 -1.26 63.62 201.2% ------- RED .034 .3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 142.18 5.29 129.06 557.7% Bullish BLUE .018 .685 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 136.6 .6 128.99 386.7% Bullish RED .185 .567 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.85 -.07 113.3 88.7% ------- RED .008 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.38 .34 123.84 16.3% Bearish RED -.067 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.45 -.08 17.07 190% Bearish RED -.082 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.74 -.03 25.76 -27.1% Bearish --- .098 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.23 -.07 20.64 161.1% Bullish --- .055 -.028 |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-19 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 125 NEWLOWS 15 MAXCP 19 MINCP 7 TTTNH 11 TTTNL 24 FASTUP 75 FASTDOWN 70 CPCROSSA 35 CPCROSSD 192 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 21 HIGHIP21 12 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 163 REDSELL 37 AUGSELS7 30 TRAPDOOR 22 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/19/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 ETFS .982 .965 .913 .844 .879 .879 BONDFUND .98 .98 .98 .98 .98 .98 SOLAR .941 .941 .941 .941 .941 .882 DJI-13 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 UTILITY .9 .925 .925 .95 .95 .975 SP-100 .881 .87 .86 .86 .86 .827 FINANCE .877 .9 .888 .877 .866 .855 NIFTY .877 .894 .912 .877 .877 .877 FIDSTKS .875 .875 .87 .854 .854 .848 DOWJONES .866 .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 NASD-100 .858 .868 .868 .838 .828 .818 REGBANKS .857 .964 .964 .928 .928 .928 SEMI .853 .853 .836 .836 .862 .836 SP500 .844 .84 .84 .832 .84 .828 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 HACKERS .818 .909 .863 .818 .818 .863 SOFTWARE .809 .825 .809 .793 .746 .777 INDEXES .806 .774 .784 .79 .795 .774 INFRA .805 .833 .777 .777 .833 .833 ELECTRON .802 .808 .796 .802 .827 .808 RUS-1000 .802 .811 .798 .798 .803 .797 INSURANC .8 .8 .8 .766 .8 .8 CHINA .796 .796 .83 .762 .779 .762 INDMATER .784 .784 .759 .772 .784 .746 OILGAS .776 .811 .734 .748 .748 .685 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .764 .882 .882 .941 BIG17 .76 .782 .739 .695 .739 .717 CHEM .759 .759 .74 .777 .777 .796 REIT .758 .778 .778 .791 .785 .805 BIOTECH .751 .732 .711 .708 .716 .687 RETAIL .716 .641 .641 .603 .754 .716 MILITARY .709 .709 .709 .709 .774 .774 TRANSP .7 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 GOLD .686 .666 .725 .725 .803 .784 COMPUTER .681 .681 .681 .727 .727 .681 BEVERAGE .666 .666 .722 .611 .611 .555 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 COMODITY .609 .585 .56 .56 .634 .56 FOOD .592 .574 .555 .5 .592 .537 AUTO .564 .564 .538 .487 .641 .641 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOSPITAL .5 .5 .458 .458 .416 .416 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL .428 .428 .428 .571 .571 .571 GAMING .416 .416 .5 .458 .458 .5 |
===========================================================================
3/18/2019 We have more technical
evidence that the DJI will reach 27000 by June.
The operative Peerless January B4 and last week's B18 were reinforced by a new
Peerless
Buy B15 signal today. The Buy B15 appeared on our DJI chart primarily because its
21-day
ma has now been rising 41 straight days. This is purely a momentum signal. It
appears in
March particularly often because of the strong tendency for the DJI not to make a
significant Sell until late May or June when there is a January take-off like we have
seen.
The combination of a Buy B18 and then a Buy B15 signal has appeared 10 times since
1929. The average DJI gain at the time of the next Peerless Sell from the
"combo" B15
is 10.1 %. Its median gain is 8.65%. Half of the combo signals occurred
in March,
like ours today. Their median gain was 8.9%. They all showed a small a paper
loss
whose median was 1%. See the combination B18-B15 signals below.
Boeing fell more than 6 today and so may continue to distort the DJI-30 somewhat,
as well as hold it back. A better reading of the market's strength now will come
from the
SP-500 and SPY. The Index has made a breakout. Its ETF has not yet.
Let's see
if the current rally can continue and thereby make believers of those that are holding
back for
want of confidence.
Still, since a new Red Sell has appeared on SOXL's chart. traders might want to take
profits if it rises by 5% tomorrow or if it turns negative despite the up-opening
tomorrow.
Hold IWM and Buy SPY.
Combo Peerless Buy B18-B15 Signals: 1929-2018 Date Signal DJI Gain Paper Loss 19430219 B18 126.7 .124 none 0 19430302 B15 128.6 .107 none 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 19581203 B18 558.8 .164 none 0 19590126 B15 592.4 .098 574.5 -.0302 2/9 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 19610201 B18 649.3 .08 637.00 -.0189 2/13 19610207 B15 643.9 .089 637.00 -.0107 2/13 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 19710118 B15 847.82 .106 none 0 19710128 B18 865.14 .084 none 0 19710224 B15 875.62 .071 none 0 19710329 B18 903.48 .038 none 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 19750305 B18 752.82 .149 742.88 -.0132 4/07 19750320 B15 764.0 .132 742.88 -.0276 4/07 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19870310 B18 2280.09 .055 2248.44 -.0138 3/16 19870313 B15 2258.66 .065 2248.44 -.0045 3/16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19950303 B18 3989.61 .391 3979.23 -.0026 3/8 19950417 B15 4195.38 .323 4179.13 -.0038 4/18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19980317 B18 8749.99 .050 none 0 19980327 B15 8796.08 .044 8782.12 -.0015 3/30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20061005 B18 11866.69 .045 none 0 20061031 B15 12080.73 .026 11986.2 -.0078 11/3 |
||
The SP-500's Closing Power made a new high, thus confirming its red (high volume) breakout on Friday. FAS, representing bigger banks is looking good , but SOXL just got a new red optimized Sell which short-term traders should take given the lagging Closing Power and nearly negative IP21. Be patient with IWM. |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/18/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 258.99 .65 255.86 43.4% ------- BLUE .199 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 372.28 -6.71 375.41 -363.9% Bullish BLUE .211 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 282.33 1.02 279.49 69.4% Bullish BLUE .16 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.45 .1 175.69 105.4% Bullish BLUE .152 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 347.37 2.62 344.2 53.1% ------- BLUE .064 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.75 .99 154.37 47.2% Bearish BLUE .021 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.29 1.13 62.44 352.2% Bullish BLUE .13 .419 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.43 .56 30.24 -99.2% Bearish BLUE .01 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 136.89 -.9 127.5 419.5% ------- RED .004 .804 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 136 1.65 126.46 450.8% Bullish BLUE .219 .733 ^^^^^^ ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.92 -.28 111.84 132.7% Bullish RED .06 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.04 .07 122.98 32.5% Bearish RED -.001 -.137 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.53 .54 16.8 295.8% Bearish BLUE -.033 .067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.3 .43 20.56 196.3% ------- BLUE .068 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190318 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 140 Bullish Ratio NEWLOWS 10 MAXCP 65 MINCP 20 TTTNH 23 TTTNL 17 FASTUP 82 FASTDOWN 68 CPCROSSA 162 CPCROSSD 51 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 6 ACCUMVER 20 HIGHIP21 17 HIUPPCT 10 VHIP21 34 LOWACCUM 164 REDSELL 36 AUGSELS7 22 TRAPDOOR 23 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/18/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 BONDFUND .98 .98 .98 .98 .98 .99 ETFS .965 .913 .844 .879 .879 .879 REGBANKS .964 .964 .928 .928 .928 .928 SOLAR .941 .941 .941 .941 .882 .941 UTILITY .925 .925 .95 .95 .975 .95 HACKERS .909 .863 .818 .818 .818 .818 FINANCE .9 .888 .877 .866 .855 .844 NIFTY .894 .912 .877 .877 .877 .877 FIDSTKS .875 .87 .854 .859 .854 .827 NASD-100 .87 .87 .84 .83 .82 .79 SP-100 .87 .86 .86 .87 .838 .827 SEMI .853 .836 .836 .862 .836 .862 SP500 .848 .848 .84 .848 .836 .826 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 INFRA .833 .777 .777 .833 .805 .777 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 SOFTWARE .825 .809 .793 .746 .761 .809 OILGAS .811 .734 .748 .748 .685 .636 RUS-1000 .811 .798 .797 .805 .792 .781 ELECTRON .808 .796 .802 .827 .808 .814 INSURANC .8 .8 .766 .8 .8 .8 CHINA .796 .83 .762 .779 .762 .796 INDMATER .784 .759 .772 .784 .746 .721 BIG17 .782 .739 .695 .739 .717 .673 REIT .778 .778 .791 .785 .812 .765 INDEXES .774 .784 .79 .795 .774 .763 HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .882 .882 .941 .941 CHEM .759 .74 .777 .777 .796 .796 TRANSP .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .7 BIOTECH .73 .711 .708 .716 .687 .666 MILITARY .709 .709 .709 .774 .774 .741 COMPUTER .681 .681 .727 .727 .681 .727 BEVERAGE .666 .722 .611 .611 .555 .666 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GOLD .666 .725 .725 .803 .784 .705 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 RETAIL .641 .641 .603 .754 .716 .716 COMODITY .585 .56 .56 .634 .56 .585 FOOD .574 .555 .5 .592 .537 .518 AUTO .564 .538 .487 .641 .641 .615 ============================================================================================= HOSPITAL .5 .458 .458 .416 .416 .375 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 ============================================================================================= COAL .428 .428 .571 .571 .571 .428 GAMING .416 .5 .458 .458 .5 .583 |
===========================================================================
3/15/2019 The operative Peerless
January B4 and last week's Buy B18 should,
if history repeats, take the DJI to new 12-month highs. Seasonality in the third
year
of the 4-year Presidential cycle is particularly bullish, provided the FED does not rates
over 3%. Right now, the DJI is wrestling with the remnants of a potential
Head/Shoulders
pattern which seems to have developed because of Michael Cohen's damaging testimony
about Trump and because of Boeing's potential threat to the DJI-30 stemming from the two
similar
crashes of its new MAX 737. While
the DJI struggles, the NYSE A/D Line is close to a 12-
month high, something which the DJ-15 (Utilities) has achieved. Recovery-new highs
were
made this week by the Transports, the NASDAQ, SOXL, TECL, QQQ and the SP-500.
Still lagging is IWM and MDY. So, the rally still looks good despite the DJIA's
lagging.
A rally tomorrow by the DJI will destroy its
potential larger Head/Shoulders pattern. The
red high volume shows churning and the need
for the DJI to breakout over 26000, if it wants
destroy its potential H/S pattern.
SOXL (below) now shows a falling IP21 and a Closing Power non-confirmation.
This is not fatal, but it is a sign that we must wait to see what happens next.
That its Closing Power is still in an uptrend should give us hope of still
higher prices.
The day after triple-witch day often seems to increase volatility. So the start of
this
week will be important to see if the leading ETFs can keep moving up to their 12-month
highs even as the DJI copes with its unpleasant looking head/shoulders. I think we
should patiently hold our long positions. Most of the Closing Powers are
rising. So,
Professionals are predominately bullish. I see no signs that the FED wants to raise
interest rates. The 1950s, which bears many similarities to 2019, did not produce
a 19% decline until the Discount Rate and the Federal Funds Rates rose over 3%.
Deep March declines of more than 4% from March peak to nadir are rare in the third
year. The last one was back in 1955. We should study these see what
might bring on
such a decline.
March DJI Tops and
Declines of More than 4%
in the third year
of a Presidential Election.
Top
Decline
Factors
Bottom
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/20/1923 18.5% Corruption in Harding's Cabinet.
10/30/1923
Fed Raises Discount Rate
1923-01-01,4.00 1923-02-01,4.11 1923-03-01,4.50 ....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/9/1939 19% Hitler annexes Bohemia and Moravia. April
Discount Rate stays at 1% all year
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/6/1947
10% FBI Director Hoover
tell Congress
May
that Communists nearly dominate Hollywood.
Red Scare - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Scare
Discount Rate stays at 1% all year
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
3/4/1955 7%
Pres. Eisenhower says US will
use nuclear weapons. 3/14/1955
Discount Rate starts rising in mid March to 1.5% to 1.63%. (Note the St. Louis
Fed only shows the rates at the end of the month. But key meetings of FOMC are
in middle of month.)
1955-03-01,1.50
1955-04-01,1.63
1955-05-01,1.75 ...
1955-08-01,1.97
1955-09-01,2.18
1955-10-01,2.25
1955-11-01,2.36
1955-12-01,2.50 ...
1956-04-01,2.65
1956-05-01,2.75...
1956-08-01,2.81
1956-09-01,3.00...
1957-08-01,3.15
In mid-July 1957, the FED took the Discount Rate over 3%.
This and Sputnik's success brought a 20% drop in the DJIA.
Fed Funds rate also then rose over 3% for first time to 3.24%
Marginal Breakouts
Charts 3/15/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/15/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-15/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-15/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/15/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 258.34 .8 256.76 70.8% ------- BLUE .179 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 378.99 5.69 400.01 -558.8% Bullish BLUE .175 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.31 .15 278.44 122.8% ------- BLUE .142 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 178.35 1.64 174.73 205.1% Bullish BLUE .16 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 344.75 -.57 343.71 80.5% Bearish BLUE .05 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.76 .41 154.29 101.3% Bearish BLUE .025 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.16 .88 61.82 434.4% Bullish BLUE .117 .343 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.87 -.22 30.02 60.7% Bearish RED .016 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 137.79 10.93 126.03 803.3% Bullish BLUE .013 .504 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 134.35 4.65 124.39 701.7% Bullish BLUE .21 .473 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.2 1.21 110.93 250.6% Bullish BLUE .091 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.97 .56 122.24 5.3% Bearish RED .036 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.99 -.13 16.53 275.2% Bearish RED -.057 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 7.17 -.16 6.57 621.2% Bearish --- -.012 .169 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 7.17 -.16 6.57 621.2% Bullish --- -.056 -.813 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.8 -.04 25.93 -36.7% Bearish --- .114 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.87 .25 20.49 170.8% ------- BLUE .073 -.01 |
TABLE 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-15 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 192 NEWLOWS 22 MAXCP 65 MINCP 20 TTTNH 26 TTTNL 40 FASTUP 134 FASTDOWN 47 CPCROSSA 171 CPCROSSD 75 BIGVOLUP 11 BIGVODN 40 ACCUMVER 21 HIGHIP21 18 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 37 LOWACCUM 197 REDSELL 40 AUGSELS7 20 TRAPDOOR 21 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/15/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 .857 BONDFUND .98 .98 .98 .98 .99 .99 REGBANKS .964 .928 .928 .928 .928 .892 SOLAR .941 .941 .941 .882 .941 .882 UTILITY .925 .95 .95 .975 .95 .95 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 ETFS .913 .844 .879 .879 .879 .672 NIFTY .912 .877 .877 .877 .877 .824 FINANCE .888 .877 .866 .855 .844 .8 FIDSTKS .87 .854 .859 .854 .827 .789 NASD-100 .87 .84 .83 .82 .79 .75 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .866 .833 HACKERS .863 .818 .818 .818 .818 .772 SP-100 .86 .86 .87 .838 .827 .741 SP500 .848 .84 .848 .836 .824 .779 SEMI .836 .836 .862 .836 .862 .801 CHINA .83 .762 .779 .762 .796 .694 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 SOFTWARE .809 .793 .746 .761 .809 .73 INSURANC .8 .766 .8 .8 .8 .733 RUS-1000 .798 .797 .803 .793 .78 .732 ELECTRON .796 .802 .827 .808 .814 .777 INDEXES .784 .79 .795 .774 .758 .731 REIT .778 .791 .785 .812 .765 .704 INFRA .777 .777 .833 .805 .777 .75 HOMEBLDG .764 .882 .882 .941 .941 .941 INDMATER .759 .772 .784 .746 .721 .721 TRANSP .75 .75 .75 .75 .7 .6 CHEM .74 .777 .777 .796 .814 .759 BIG17 .739 .695 .739 .717 .673 .652 OILGAS .734 .748 .748 .685 .622 .566 GOLD .725 .725 .803 .784 .705 .745 BEVERAGE .722 .611 .611 .555 .666 .555 MILITARY .709 .709 .774 .774 .741 .741 BIOTECH .708 .708 .716 .687 .666 .608 COMPUTER .681 .727 .727 .681 .727 .727 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 RETAIL .641 .603 .754 .716 .716 .679 COMODITY .56 .56 .634 .56 .536 .512 FOOD .555 .5 .592 .537 .481 .481 AUTO .538 .487 .641 .641 .615 .538 =============================================================================================== GAMING .5 .458 .458 .5 .583 .5 JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 =============================================================================================== HOSPITAL .458 .458 .416 .416 .375 .375 COAL .428 .571 .571 .571 .428 .428 |
======================================================================
3/14/2019 A new, augmenting Peerless Buy B18 resulted from today's trading. It should
help bring a breakout by the SP-500 above its flat overhead resistance at 2825,
by the NYSE above 12800 and by the NASDAQ above 7670. We also
need to see it destroy the potential head/shoulders patterns in the DJI by
moving above 25900, in IWM by surpassing 156 (1.65 higher) and in SOXL
by breaking above 134.
Charts 3/14/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/14/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-14/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-14/BEARISH.htm |
The market keeps slowly advancing despite the dangers that bearish news about
Boeing, from the Chinese tariff reports or the Muller Report might bring. It is also
bullishly climbing a wall of worry even though the last Jobs' Report was anemic.
This means the market is in relatively tight hands and should go higher.
The Buy B18 simply tells us that the P-Indicator (the
21-day ma of NYSE advances)
minus declines has been rising 42 straight day. The link is to the study that was
done
in 2013. The list of all the B18s now is virtually the same, except that there are
a few more cases than before chiefly because the current program allows the B18
when the V-I is slightly negative. (More on this Sunday night).
Below is a list of all the previous March B18s. There have been 13. The median
gain for then is 5.5% on the DJI at the time of the next Peerless Sell. The median
paper loss is 1.2%. Seven of the 13 March 18s occurred in the third year of a
Presidential Election year. The biggest gain was 39.1% and the lowesr gain was
3.2%. The biggest paper loss in all 13 March B18s was only 1.6%. The signal
should help us stay bullish.
March Peerless B18 s Gain Paper Loss 19540318 B18 300.1 .561 296.4 -.012 3/25 19650315 B18 899.9 .043 887.8 -.013 3/29 19670303 B18 846.6 .032 842.43 -.005 4/10 3rd Year in 4-year cycle. 19710329 B18 903.48 .038 none 0 3rd Year in 4-year cycle. 19750305 B18 752.82 .149 742.88 -.013 4/07 3rd Year in 4-year cycle. 19830308 B18 1119.78 .111 1113.49 -.006 4/6 3rd Year in 4-year cycle. 19860303 B18 1696.67 .076 1686.30 -.006 3/4 19870310 B18 2280.09 .055 2248.44 -.014 3/16 3rd Year in 4-year cycle. 19910326 B18 2914.85 .039 2873.02 -.014 4/9 19930317 B18 3426.74 .158 3370.81 -.016 4/2 19950303 B18 3989.61 .391 3979.23 -.003 3/8 19980317 B18 8749.99 .050 none 0 20060315 B18 11209.77 .033 11073.7 -.012 4/17 |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/14/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.54 .19 254.71 53.3% ------- BLUE .157 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 373.3 -3.84 422.54 -616.5% Bullish RED .156 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.16 -.18 274.46 110.7% ------- RED .126 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 176.71 -.3 171.17 151.7% Bullish RED .114 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.32 -.42 339.22 74.9% ------- RED .11 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.35 -.63 151.64 87% Bearish RED .063 .048 big drop --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 64.28 .66 59.74 366% Bullish BLUE .075 .331 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 29.09 -1.38 28.51 -20.2% Bearish RED .034 .151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 126.86 -2.2 117.64 365.3% ------- RED -.047 .418 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 129.7 .71 116.77 520.8% Bullish RED .148 .422 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 112.99 -.31 108.61 173.8% Bullish RED .038 .067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.41 -1.43 122.84 36.7% Bearish BLUE .043 -.095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.12 .05 16.07 195.9% Bearish ----- .044 .116 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.62 -.02 20.17 75.9% Bearish ----- .103 -.005 |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-14 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 167 Bullish NEWLOWS 16 MAXCP 35 MINCP 12 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 20 FASTUP 83 FASTDOWN 67 CPCROSSA 65 CPCROSSD 62 BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 14 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 8 HIUPPCT 8 VHIP21 36 LOWACCUM 153 REDSELL 43 AUGSELS7 23 TRAPDOOR 21 |
Table 1 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/14/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 .857 .857 BONDFUND .98 .98 .98 .99 .99 .98 UTILITY .95 .95 .975 .95 .95 .9 SOLAR .941 .941 .882 .941 .882 .823 REGBANKS .928 .928 .928 .928 .857 .821 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 HOMEBLDG .882 .882 .941 .941 .941 .941 FINANCE .877 .866 .855 .844 .788 .755 NIFTY .877 .877 .877 .877 .824 .824 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .866 .833 .866 SP-100 .86 .87 .838 .827 .741 .784 FIDSTKS .854 .859 .854 .827 .783 .805 ETFS .844 .879 .879 .879 .672 .706 NASD-100 .84 .83 .82 .79 .75 .77 SP500 .84 .848 .836 .824 .775 .797 SEMI .836 .862 .836 .862 .793 .801 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 HACKERS .818 .818 .818 .818 .772 .772 ELECTRON .802 .827 .808 .814 .771 .771 RUS-1000 .797 .803 .792 .781 .727 .747 SOFTWARE .793 .746 .761 .809 .73 .698 REIT .791 .785 .812 .765 .704 .684 INDEXES .79 .795 .774 .758 .725 .736 CHEM .777 .777 .796 .814 .777 .796 INFRA .777 .833 .805 .777 .75 .75 INDMATER .772 .784 .746 .721 .721 .734 INSURANC .766 .8 .8 .8 .733 .733 CHINA .762 .779 .762 .796 .694 .762 OILGAS .753 .753 .69 .626 .563 .647 TRANSP .75 .75 .75 .7 .55 .65 COMPUTER .727 .727 .681 .727 .681 .727 GOLD .725 .803 .784 .705 .745 .568 BIOTECH .706 .716 .687 .666 .605 .611 BIG17 .695 .739 .717 .673 .652 .652 MILITARY .687 .75 .75 .718 .718 .718 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 BEVERAGE .611 .611 .555 .666 .555 .555 RETAIL .603 .754 .716 .716 .679 .698 COAL .571 .571 .571 .428 .428 .428 COMODITY .56 .634 .56 .536 .512 .487 =========================================================================================== JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .3 =========================================================================================== FOOD .49 .581 .527 .472 .472 .436 AUTO .487 .641 .641 .615 .538 .589 GAMING .458 .458 .5 .583 .5 .5 HOSPITAL .458 .416 .416 .375 .375 .375 |
All Previous Peerless Buy B18s - 3/14/2018 (C) 2019 www.tigersoft.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gain Paper Loss 19420804 B18 105.6 .348 none 0 19421015 B18 113.3 .257 131.1 .0157 10/28 19430219 B18 126.7 .124 none 0 19430420 B18 128.5 .108 none 0 19440103 B18 135.9 .207 134.2 -.013 2/7 19441016 B18 148.1 .107 145.6 -.017 11/14 19450214 B18 157.1 .044 155.5 -.010 3/23 19450511 B18 163.2 .005 none 0 19451011 B18 185.7 .073 none 0 19451213 B18 193.5 .029 189.1 -.023 12/21 19490829 B18 177.8 .241 none 0 19501013 B18 228.5 .134 222.3 -.027 12/2 19510110 B18 240.4 .078 none 0 19540318 B18 300.1 .561 296.4 -.012 3/25 19540802 B18 349.6 .340 335.8 -.039 8/31 19550110 B18 400.9 .168 388.2 -.032 1/17 19580801 B18 505.4 .287 502.7 -.005 8/18 19581003 B18 533.7 .218 none 0 19581203 B18 558.8 .164 none 0 19610201 B18 649.3 .08 637.00 -.019 2/13 19650315 B18 899.9 .043 887.8 -.013 3/29 19670303 B18 846.6 .032 842.43 -.005 4/10 19710128 B18 865.14 .084 none 0 19710329 B18 903.48 .038 none 0 19750305 B18 752.82 .149 742.88 -.013 4/07 19780512 B18 840.70 .031 none 0 19821201 B18 1031.09 .025 none 0 19830308 B18 1119.78 .111 1113.49 -.006 4/6 19851220 B18 1543.00 .183 none 0 19860303 B18 1696.67 .076 1686.30 -.006 3/4 19870310 B18 2280.09 .055 2248.44 -.014 3/16 19910326 B18 2914.85 .039 2873.02 -.014 4/9 19930317 B18 3426.74 .158 3370.81 -.016 4/2 19950303 B18 3989.61 .391 3979.23 -.003 3/8 19950525 B18 4412.23 .258 4369.00 -.010 5/26 19950801 B18 4700.37 .181 4580.62 -.025 8/24 19961009 B18 5930.62 .156 none 0 19980317 B18 8749.99 .050 none 0 20020103 B18 10172.14 -.006 9618.24 -.054 1/29 20030514 B18 8647.82 .134 8491.36 -.018 5/20 20031217 B18 10145.26 .047 none 0 20041221 B18 10759.43 .014 none 0 20060111 B18 11043.44 .048 10667.3 -.034 1/20 20060315 B18 11209.77 .033 11073.7 -.012 4/17 20061005 B18 11866.69 .045 none 0 20061204 B18 12283.85 .009 none 0 20070518 B18 13556.53 .026 13266.7 -.021 6/7 20130201 B18 14009.79 .083 13784.1 -.016 2/15 20130502 B18 14831.58 .023 none 0 20140423 B18 16501.65 .029 16374.3 -.008 5/20 |
======================================================================
3/13/2019 The Buy B4 and the
V-formation are still in place. Their history suggests
strongly that the DJI will move above 26000 and then reach 27000. But there
is no doubt that a stock market rally would be a lot easier if Boeing's vulnerability
were not so potentially large. The DJI needs to advance from here to continue
to destroy its potential H/S. Avoid DIA for now. I would prefer to hold SOXL
and IWM.
Boeing's potential liability is very big. The present support at its 65-dma is
important. Watch to see if 365 holds up. If not, it will likely fall to
300.
This, by itself would drop the DJI by more than 400 points.
One development that might mitigate BA's financial responsibility would be if it turns out
that the two crashes were were mostly due to pilot error. As I understand it, the
new
type of 747 jet, the one involved in the two "MAX" crashes, must take off at a
lower
angle of ascent than the older 747s. And if a pilot, who might have gotten most of
his training in the older 747s, does not make the proper adjustment to the demands
of flying the new 747, then they could try to angle the plane up more steeply than
keeps the plane rising safely and that then the automatic anti-stall programs will kick in
and try to take over the flying of the plane with the consequence that the plane's nose
is then pointed dangerously downward too soon after take-off. The cockpit recording
device ought to show us if this is the case. Then the question becomes why did the
BA
software not anticipate this pilot error sufficiently, either in the training or in the
software.
And how reliable is the plane's speed sendor?
Here are two warnings sent by two pitlots to the FAA and Boeing before the Ethiopian
Crash.
"In one incident, an airline pilot reported that immediately after engaging
the Max 8s
autopilot, the co-pilot shouted DESCENDING, followed by an audio cockpit
warning,
DONT SINK! DONT SINK! I immediately disconnected AP
(Autopilot)
(it WAS engaged as we got full horn etc.) and resumed climb, the pilot writes in the
report,
which is available in a database
compiled by NASA. Now, I would generally assume it
was my automation error, i.e., aircraft was trying to acquire a miss-commanded speed/no
autothrottles, crossing restriction etc., but frankly neither of us could find an
inappropriate
setup error (not to say there wasnt one).
"Another pilot said it was unconscionable that a manufacturer, the FAA, and the
airlines
would have pilots flying an airplane without adequately training, or even providing
available resources and sufficient documentation to understand the highly complex
systems that differentiate this aircraft from prior models...I am left to wonder: what
else
dont I know? The Flight Manual is inadequate and almost criminally insufficient. All
airlines that operate the MAX must insist that Boeing incorporate ALL systems in their
"
manual" "
( Source: https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/13/18263751/boeing-737-max-8-pilot-complaint-autopilot-mcas
)
The most bullish thing the market can do now is to continue to show very good breadth,
have the Dollar stay strong, have interest rates fall and have SPY (or the SP-500)
and SOXL move past the resistance lines shown below.
SPY
SOXL
Charts 3/13/2019 2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN 3/13/19 (Click on Underlined link.) Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-13/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-13/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/13/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 257.35 1.49 254.81 9.4% ------- BLUE .167 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 377.14 1.73 422.56 -578.5% Bullish RED .237 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.34 1.85 275.01 72.4% Bullish BLUE .145 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 177.01 1.32 171.43 99.5% Bullish BLUE .177 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.74 1.54 340.19 39% Bullish BLUE .116 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.98 .61 151.68 64.1% ------- BLUE .117 .05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63.62 1.18 59.78 187.6% Bullish BLUE .077 .34 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.47 .23 29.21 -11.8% Bearish BLUE .169 .216 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 129.06 1.56 117.83 289.7% ------- RED .013 .462 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 128.99 2.53 116.92 358.8% Bullish BLUE .184 .443 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.3 1.46 109.14 155.8% Bullish BLUE .082 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 123.84 .86 121.51 91.2% Bearish BLUE .033 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 17.07 .27 16.47 87.7% Bearish BLUE-.052 .092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.76 -.12 26.07 -15.4% Bearish RED -.006 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.64 .08 20.31 4.9% Bearish BLUE-.14 -.016 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-13 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 206 Bullish ratio. NEWLOWS 14 MAXCP 50 MINCP 8 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 21 FASTUP 87 FASTDOWN 60 CPCROSSA 132 CPCROSSD 41 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 12 ACCUMVER 15 HIGHIP21 14 HIUPPCT 9 VHIP21 32 LOWACCUM 162 REDSELL 31 AUGSELS7 24 TRAPDOOR 20 |
Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/13/19 Bullish = 43 Bearish = 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 .857 .857 1 BONDFUND .98 .98 .99 .99 .98 .971 UTILITY .95 .975 .95 .95 .9 .925 SOLAR .941 .882 .941 .882 .823 .882 REGBANKS .928 .928 .928 .857 .821 .892 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 HOMEBLDG .882 .941 .941 .941 .941 .823 ETFS .879 .879 .879 .672 .706 .844 NIFTY .877 .877 .877 .824 .824 .877 SP-100 .87 .838 .827 .741 .784 .806 DOWJONES .866 .866 .866 .833 .866 .833 FINANCE .866 .855 .844 .788 .755 .844 SEMI .862 .836 .862 .793 .801 .853 FIDSTKS .859 .854 .827 .783 .8 .816 SP500 .848 .836 .824 .775 .793 .812 INFRA .833 .805 .777 .75 .75 .75 NASD-100 .83 .82 .79 .75 .75 .81 ELECTRON .827 .808 .814 .771 .771 .808 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 HACKERS .818 .818 .818 .772 .772 .772 GOLD .803 .784 .705 .745 .568 .549 RUS-1000 .803 .792 .78 .729 .745 .767 INSURANC .8 .8 .8 .733 .7 .766 INDEXES .795 .774 .758 .725 .725 .747 REIT .785 .812 .765 .704 .684 .744 INDMATER .784 .746 .721 .721 .734 .734 CHINA .779 .762 .796 .694 .762 .864 CHEM .777 .796 .814 .777 .814 .796 RETAIL .754 .716 .716 .679 .698 .716 OILGAS .753 .69 .626 .563 .64 .64 MILITARY .75 .75 .718 .718 .718 .75 TRANSP .75 .75 .7 .55 .6 .7 SOFTWARE .746 .761 .809 .73 .698 .746 BIG17 .739 .717 .673 .652 .652 .63 COMPUTER .727 .681 .727 .681 .727 .772 BIOTECH .714 .687 .666 .605 .608 .608 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 .666 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 AUTO .641 .641 .615 .538 .589 .641 COMODITY .634 .56 .536 .512 .487 .512 BEVERAGE .611 .555 .666 .555 .555 .611 FOOD .581 .527 .472 .472 .418 .436 COAL .571 .571 .428 .428 .428 .428 ============================================================================================= JETS .5 .5 .5 .3 .3 .4 ============================================================================================= GAMING .458 .5 .583 .5 .5 .625 HOSPITAL .416 .416 .375 .375 .333 .375 |
====================================================================
3/12/2019 The Buy B4 and the V-formation
are still in place. But the DJI is being
held back by Boeing and by the technical problems created by its
potential head and shoulders pattern. A closing by the DJI below the
H/S would have to be judged a Sell S10. But that could also bring a
nullifying Buy B9 since the P-I would likely be positive a the lower
band.... The DJI will be doing well just to rally given Boeing's situation
and the uncertainties that introduces. Each 10 points that Boeing falls
drops the DJI by 70.
Fortunately, the V-formation and the January Buy B4 argue for a move
to 27000. Signals on the DJI chart are shown just below. It does show a
potential H/S. But understand that very often a bearish-looking head/shoulders
pattern becomes short-term bullish when prices go above the apex of the right
shoulders. (Presumably, it is at this point that shorts become very nervous.)
The NYSE A/D Line remains bullish and 87% of all the trading instruments
we follow are above their 65-dma. Seasonality is bullish and so are most stocks.
Assuming the DJI can stay above 25000, it will next challenge
26100 and when that is conquered, we will see a move to 27000.
If the FED cooperates and BA is exonerated, we should see an
exciting move past 27000 to 30000.
Right now, there is still a certain amount of caution. But I take it as a
good sign about interest rates that the DJI-Untilities Index has just made a new
12-month high and the interest rates on 10-year bonds have just made a
new low.
I would prefer to stay long the tech ETFs, SOXL or TECL. They will
hold up better than the DJI. So should IWM. Each of these shows a
rising Closing Power.
It is very rare for the DJI to lead the rest of the market lower. There
are only a handful of cases, most notably 1977 and 2001. Much
more likely would for Peerless to give a Buy B9 based on positive
breadth (P-I) as the DJI tags the lower band. But US intervention
in Venezuela could create a whote batch of new uncertainties that would
likely hold back the market in what should be a normally bullish period of time.
SPY - 281-282 is important overhead resistance.
IWM - working on surpassing its 21-dma
SOXL- Very close to breaking downtrend
and bullishly destroying a potential H/S/
TECL - Big Move up Today
Charts 3/12/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/12/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-12/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-12/BEARISH.htm Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/12/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 255.86 -.9 256.87 -45.5% Bullish RED .138 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 375.41 -24.6 424.46 -651.4% Bullish RED .158 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 279.49 1.05 277.33 8.5% Bullish BLUE .154 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 175.69 .96 173.56 32.9% Bullish BLUE .179 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 344.2 .49 343.07 -51.8% Bullish BLUE .175 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.37 .08 153.02 -55.8% Bullish ---- .18 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 62.44 .62 61.33 -3.3% Bullish BLUE .09 .321 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 127.5 1.47 121.98 -30.7% ------- BLUE .058 .486 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 126.46 2.07 120.31 172.7% Bullish BLUE .185 .408 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.84 .91 109.87 -71.6% Bullish BLUE .086 .069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.98 .74 121.61 51.6% Bearish BLUE .006 -.086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.8 .27 16.78 -159.3% ------- BLUE -.022 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 7.03 .46 7.12 -463.1% ------- BLUE .017 .203 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.56 .07 20.62 -17.1% ------- ---- -.165 .005Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
2019-03-12
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 195 Bullish
NEWLOWS 12
MAXCP 53
MINCP 6
TTTNH 16
TTTNL 11
FASTUP 50
FASTDOWN 90
CPCROSSA 107
CPCROSSD 42
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 8
ACCUMVER 24
HIGHIP21 8
HIUPPCT 11
VHIP21 31
LOWACCUM 152
REDSELL 32
AUGSELS7 17
TRAPDOOR 20 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/12/19 Bullish 43 Bearish 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 .857 .857 1 1 BONDFUND .98 .99 .99 .98 .971 .971 UTILITY .975 .95 .95 .9 .925 .95 HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .941 .941 .823 .941 REGBANKS .928 .928 .857 .821 .892 1 DJI-13 .923 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 SOLAR .882 .941 .882 .823 .882 .882 ETFS .879 .879 .672 .706 .827 .896 NIFTY .877 .877 .824 .824 .877 .877 DOWJONES .866 .866 .833 .866 .8 .833 FINANCE .855 .844 .788 .755 .855 .877 FIDSTKS .854 .827 .783 .8 .816 .837 SP-100 .838 .827 .741 .784 .795 .838 SEMI .836 .862 .793 .801 .853 .87 SP500 .836 .824 .775 .793 .81 .844 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 NASD-100 .82 .79 .75 .75 .81 .82 HACKERS .818 .818 .772 .772 .772 .818 REIT .812 .765 .704 .684 .738 .785 ELECTRON .808 .814 .771 .771 .808 .839 INFRA .805 .777 .75 .75 .75 .861 INSURANC .8 .8 .733 .7 .766 .766 CHEM .796 .814 .777 .814 .814 .796 RUS-1000 .792 .78 .727 .747 .767 .811 GOLD .784 .705 .745 .568 .588 .803 INDEXES .768 .758 .725 .725 .747 .784 CHINA .762 .796 .694 .762 .864 .847 SOFTWARE .761 .809 .73 .698 .73 .746 MILITARY .75 .718 .718 .718 .75 .781 TRANSP .75 .7 .55 .6 .7 .75 INDMATER .746 .721 .721 .734 .734 .848 BIG17 .717 .673 .652 .652 .63 .695 RETAIL .716 .716 .679 .698 .716 .754 OILGAS .687 .624 .56 .638 .638 .73 BIOTECH .685 .666 .605 .608 .605 .695 COMPUTER .681 .727 .681 .727 .772 .772 EDU .666 .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .647 .764 AUTO .641 .615 .538 .589 .641 .692 COAL .571 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 COMODITY .56 .536 .512 .487 .56 .609 BEVERAGE .555 .666 .555 .555 .611 .722 FOOD .527 .472 .472 .418 .49 .527 ============================================================================================== GAMING .5 .583 .5 .5 .625 .625 JETS .5 .5 .3 .3 .4 .4 ============================================================================================== HOSPITAL .416 .375 .375 .333 .375 .5
====================================================================
3/11/2019 The Buy B4 and the V-formation still rule our market. The first
shallow 3% decline in a V-formation has three times before been followed
by an upside breakout which leads to new 12-month highs. A continued
rally now would destroy an appearance of a possible bearish head/shoulders
pattern now in DIA and SOXL. Following my suggestions of last night,
traders should have retaken long positions in IWM and SOXL. TECL
also looks quite bullish. I would stay away from DIA for now. Boeing's
bearish news is apparently not over and Day-traders will be whipping it
around wildly for now.
The emotional stock selling induced by Friday's weak Jobs' report and the
Boeing jet crash on Sunday in Ethiopia seems to have left shares in much
stronger hands, namely those Professionals who sense the extra power of
the stock market in the third year of a Presidential Election. Of interest, for
us was how the decline from the DJI's February peak to yesterday's low closely
matched the 3% to 3.5% declines after each of the three previous V-formation
bottoms after a larger decline of 18% or more in the DJI. We can these three
cases below: 1942, 1949 and 1971. In each case, the first decline in the
fast-up rallies of these earlier cases of V-formations was between 3% and 3.5%.
There buyers were eagerly waiting to buy on the first pull-back and the turn
upwards sent the DJI quickly much higher. We should expect that now.
1941-1942
1949
1971-1972
Buy IWM, SOXL and TECL.
The high volume ETFs in Table 1 had their Closing Power downtrends broken
today. This shows Professionals are done with the downside for now and are
aggressively buying again. Last night, I suggested that this action should get us
to purchase the ETFs with the highest IP21 and the highest ITRS in Table 1.
Using Sunday night's Hotline that would have meant buying MDY or IWM and
SOXL. Using the Table 1 tonight, that would mean buying SOXL and TECL.
If you are using TigerSoft charts, you should have taken the positions in IWM
and SOXL when you saw intra-day the clear breaks in the Closing Power
downtrends. This is much preferable to waiting to buy the next day. Below
are the enlarged CP charts of IWM, SOXL and TECL.
Charts 3/11/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/11/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-11/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-11/BEARISH.htm
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/11/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 256.76 2.05 258.19 -29.6% Bullish BLUE .223 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 400.01 -22.53 430.12 -383.1% Bullish BLUE .359 .152 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 278.44 3.98 279.02 -17.3% Bullish BLUE .196 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 174.73 3.56 174.55 9% Bullish BLUE .207 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 343.71 4.49 347.75 -80.1% Bullish BLUE .196 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 154.29 2.65 156.08 -81.9% Bullish BLUE .214 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 61.82 2.08 62.48 -84.9% Bullish BLUE .141 .327 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 30.02 1.51 31.23 -80% ------- BLUE .157 .193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 126.03 8.39 128.25 -165.6% Bullish BLUE .082 .481 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 124.39 7.62 122.31 36.3% Bullish BLUE .232 .408 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.93 2.32 113.42 -138.7% Bullish BLUE .121 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.24 -.6 121.72 27.9% Bearish RED -.018 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.53 .46 17.33 -282.3% Bearish BLUE -.041 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.49 .32 20.63 -2.4% ------- BLUE -.155 -.035
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 2019-03-11 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 166 Bullish 10x new lows. NEWLOWS 14 MAXCP 49 Rising quickly. MINCP 6 TTTNH 21 TTTNL 18 FASTUP 57 FASTDOWN 119 CPCROSSA 361 Bullish Ratio of 10x. CPCROSSD 35 BIGVOLUP 8 BIGVODN 9 ACCUMVER 30 HIGHIP21 13 HIUPPCT 11 VHIP21 30 LOWACCUM 151 REDSELL 40 AUGSELS7 15 TRAPDOOR 24 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/11/19 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 .857 .857 1 1 1 BONDFUND .99 .99 .98 .971 .971 .971 UTILITY .95 .95 .9 .925 .925 .925 HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .941 .823 .941 .941 SOLAR .941 .882 .823 .882 .882 .882 REGBANKS .928 .857 .821 .892 1 1 DJI-13 .923 .846 .923 .923 .923 .923 ETFS .879 .672 .706 .827 .896 .896 NIFTY .877 .824 .824 .877 .877 .859 DOWJONES .866 .833 .866 .8 .833 .833 SEMI .862 .793 .801 .853 .87 .896 FINANCE .844 .788 .755 .855 .877 .888 FIDSTKS .827 .783 .8 .816 .827 .832 SP-100 .827 .741 .784 .795 .827 .827 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .826 .869 SP500 .824 .775 .793 .81 .84 .846 HACKERS .818 .772 .772 .772 .772 .818 CHEM .814 .777 .814 .814 .814 .796 ELECTRON .814 .771 .771 .808 .839 .864 SOFTWARE .809 .73 .698 .73 .761 .809 INSURANC .8 .733 .7 .766 .766 .766 CHINA .796 .694 .762 .864 .847 .847 NASD-100 .79 .75 .75 .81 .82 .82 RUS-1000 .78 .727 .745 .769 .811 .816 INFRA .777 .75 .75 .75 .861 .861 REIT .765 .704 .684 .738 .785 .798 INDEXES .763 .725 .725 .747 .784 .79 COMPUTER .727 .681 .727 .772 .772 .772 INDMATER .721 .721 .734 .734 .848 .848 MILITARY .718 .718 .718 .75 .781 .781 RETAIL .716 .679 .698 .716 .754 .754 GOLD .705 .745 .568 .588 .803 .803 TRANSP .7 .55 .6 .7 .7 .75 BIG17 .673 .652 .652 .63 .695 .695 BEVERAGE .666 .555 .555 .611 .722 .722 EDU .666 .666 .666 .833 .833 .666 BIOTECH .664 .605 .608 .605 .685 .706 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .647 .764 .764 OILGAS .624 .56 .638 .638 .716 .751 AUTO .615 .538 .589 .641 .692 .692 GAMING .583 .5 .5 .625 .625 .666 COMODITY .536 .512 .487 .56 .56 .585 ============================================================================================= JETS .5 .3 .3 .4 .4 .4 ============================================================================================= FOOD .472 .472 .418 .49 .49 .509 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 HOSPITAL .375 .375 .333 .375 .458 .5
======================================================================
3/8/2019 Use any early weakness on Monday to cover the short sales in FAS and SOXL.
When their short-term Closing Power downtrends are broken, we will
consider buying the highest ranked ETFs in Table 1, based on IP21 and ITRS.
There should be very good support for the DJI between 24500 and 25000.
As the P-I and IP21 are both positive, a 1.5% decline will probably bring
a bullish Buy B9.
Boeing's stock is down 9% at this writing. By itself, a drop in a single DJI
stock of 52 points would make the DJI fall by more than 319 points. But
the DJI is down "only" 170 right now. So clearly, the rest of the DJI stocks
are being bought by contrarians on this news that a second Boeing 737-max
has crashed shortly after take-off in Addis Ababa. The experts have hardly
begun to investigate and already these Boeing jets are being grounded and the
worst-case scenarios for BA's stock are being discussed. But what if the plane
went down because of terrorism? The US and Ethiopia are allies in a very active
and bloody campaign against Somalia. BA would go right back up. We
will watch BA's Closing Power downtrend and probably buy it when its CP downtrend
ends. This worked very well in British Petroleum's case in 2010 after its big and
totally unexpected oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Watch BA's Closing Power.
When BP's Closing Power's downtrend ended,
it again should have been bought back in 2010.
------------------------------------------------ Sources --------------------------------------------- https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/business/boeing-737-max.html?emc=edit_th_190311&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=582238940311
www.africanews.com/.../ethiopia-air-force-bombards-al-shabaab-in-somalia-two-leade...
U.S. Airstrikes Kill Hundreds in Somalia as Shadowy Conflict Ramps Up
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I take the operative Peerless signal to still be the January B4. Ordinarily,
this signal leads us to expect a move up by more than 10%. So, unless the
unexpected happens, the DJI should reach 27800. Peerless emphasizes
seasonality, the Federal Reserve and politics. Usually, because of politics,
the third year of a Presidential Election is nearly 3x more bullish more than
the year of the Election or the first year afterwards, or the second year
afterwards. Trump's contentious relationship with Congressional Democrats
could bring a decline. But Senate Republicans are not ready to vote
for impeachment and Bill Cinton's impeachment in 1999 did not stop
the DJI from rallying in a strong market when short-term interest rates were
falling.
So, I've suggested the FED is the most important element in the picture now.
Since Fed Chairman says short-term rates are, in effect, frozen, that he not worried
about an economic slow-down and that the Fed will only make decisions based
on what the economic data show, I would think the Buy B4 will produce signifiantly
higher prices.
A decline by SPY to 268 could set up
a new H/S pattern. The best support
here should be at 265.
We have just seen a "straight-up" advance of nearly 20% in a V-formation.
Such price action in 1942, 1949 and 1971-2 always brought new highs after
a 20% decline, I think we have to remain bullish. But seasonality needs to
be allowed to play out without bearish exogenous influences intruding.
The appearance of a quick head and shoulders pattern in the DJI is a warning
that the market has had to quickly adjust to some new unexpected bearish
non-economic and exogenous news. When past head/shoulders formations
have quickly appeared in the past - in under 15 days - most often they bring a DJI
decline to the 65-dma. That is what seems most likely here. Keep in mind
that the rapid advance has left many traders and investors on the sideline
waiting for a pull-back to take their positions. In addition, any DJI close
near the 65-dma will almost certainly bring new Peerless Buys.
See the charts of all the DJI's H/S patterns since 1915 here.
http://tigersoft.com/H-S/H-S.htm
The Dollar remains very strong. One would think this that would give
the FED some room to lower interest rates if the economy weakens or stocks go down.
Charts 3/8/2019
2018 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper)
MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN
XOM WMT CMG , LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/8/19 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MAXCPS/Mar-8/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/MINCPs/Mar-8/BEARISH.htm
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 3/8/19ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 254.71 -.1 258.28 -110.8% Bullish BLUE .161 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 422.54 -.02 432.69 -210.2% Bullish BLUE .094 .269 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 274.46 -.55 279.4 -107.1% Bullish BLUE .164 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 171.17 -.26 174.42 -92.7% Bullish BLUE .159 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 339.22 -.97 349.22 -168% ------- BLUE .171 .023 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.64 -.04 156.81 -212.7% Bullish BLUE .171 .037 ^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 59.74 -.04 62.86 -328% Bullish BLUE .138 .423 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 117.64 -.19 130.11 -493.9% ------- BLUE .027 .586 ^^^^^ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 116.77 -.15 123.52 -330.3% Bullish BLUE .165 .525 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.61 -.53 114.01 -289.4% ------- BLUE .041 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 122.84 1.33 121.56 39.5% Bearish BLUE-.013 -.144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 16.07 -.4 17.48 -394.8% Bearish --- -.086 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 6.31 -.57 7.83 -882.3% ------- RED -.097 .303 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 20.17 -.14 20.5 -65.9% ------- --- -.188 -.074 Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20190308 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 94 NEWLOWS 36 MAXCP 22 MINCP 17 TTTNH 6 TTTNL 55 FASTUP 42 FASTDOWN 206 CPCROSSA 187 CPCROSSD 33 BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 16 ACCUMVER 46 HIGHIP21 15 HIUPPCT 10 VHIP21 31 LOWACCUM 152 REDSELL 41 AUGSELS7 17 TRAPDOOR 25 Table 3 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/8/19 Bullish = 41 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONDFUND .99 .98 .971 .971 .971 .952 UTILITY .95 .9 .925 .925 .925 .925 HOMEBLDG .941 .941 .823 .941 .941 .882 SOLAR .882 .823 .882 .882 .882 .882 BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 1 1 1 REGBANKS .857 .821 .892 1 1 1 DJI-13 .846 .923 .923 .923 .846 .923 DOWJONES .833 .866 .8 .833 .8 .866 GREEN .826 .826 .826 .826 .869 .826 NIFTY .824 .824 .877 .877 .859 .912 SEMI .793 .801 .853 .87 .896 .862 FINANCE .788 .755 .855 .877 .888 .888 FIDSTKS .783 .8 .816 .827 .821 .854 CHEM .777 .814 .814 .814 .814 .833 SP500 .775 .793 .81 .84 .844 .869 HACKERS .772 .772 .772 .772 .818 .863 ELECTRON .771 .771 .808 .839 .864 .851 INFRA .75 .75 .75 .861 .861 .861 NASD-100 .75 .75 .81 .82 .81 .83 GOLD .745 .568 .588 .803 .803 .823 SP-100 .741 .784 .795 .827 .817 .881 INSURANC .733 .7 .766 .766 .8 .866 SOFTWARE .73 .698 .73 .761 .809 .873 RUS-1000 .727 .745 .767 .812 .815 .834 INDEXES .724 .729 .751 .789 .8 .821 INDMATER .721 .734 .734 .848 .848 .822 MILITARY .718 .718 .75 .781 .781 .812 REIT .704 .684 .738 .785 .791 .778 CHINA .694 .762 .864 .847 .83 .813 COMPUTER .681 .727 .772 .772 .772 .772 RETAIL .679 .698 .716 .754 .754 .754 ETFS .672 .706 .827 .896 .896 .913 EDU .666 .666 .833 .833 .666 .833 BIG17 .652 .652 .63 .695 .695 .695 GUNS .647 .647 .647 .764 .764 .882 BIOTECH .603 .608 .605 .685 .703 .716 OILGAS .56 .638 .638 .716 .751 .751 BEVERAGE .555 .555 .611 .722 .722 .722 TRANSP .55 .6 .7 .7 .75 .8 AUTO .538 .589 .641 .692 .666 .794 COMODITY .512 .487 .56 .56 .536 .585 GAMING .5 .5 .625 .625 .666 .666 =============================================================================================== FOOD .464 .41 .482 .482 .464 .517 COAL .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .714 HOSPITAL .375 .333 .375 .458 .5 .583 JETS .3 .3 .4 .4 .4 .5
.533 .533 .6 .466 BIOTECH .442 .413 .463 .407 .394 .413 COAL .428 .428 .428 .285 .285 .285 HOSPITAL .416 .458 .541 .5 .458 .416OILGAS .335 .28 .349 .26 .226 .239 EDU .333 .5 .5 .5 .333 .333 BIG17 .282 .347 .369 .326 .369 .391
https://www.itcmarkets.com/hawk-dove-cheat-sheet/