Buy B17s takes place when the DJI falls sufficiently below
the 21-day mvg.avg. but still shows a nearly positive or improving
Accumulation Index.
The average gain on the 72 Buy B17s between 1928 and 2013 was 11.1%
There was only one Buy B17 that did not bring at least a gain of 2%.
No losses were produced by this signal. The biggest gains generally
occurred in the Mid-Term Election Year (PE +2). They averaged 14.8%.
October Buy B11s were the most frequent and the most powerful,
averaging 15.1%. The B17s gains from April to July were much smaller.
Gains: 1928-2013
> 10% 29
5%-4.99% 24
2%-4.99% 18
0%-1.99% 1
losses 0
| 12/10/1928 B17
263.9
18.5%
No Paper Loss .94 .119 -43 9 -43 .01 -595 .137 .099 Here DJI was down 10% from high with IP21 positive in bullish month of December. 19301223 B17 232.7 .226
19321031 B17 61.9 .099 fell to 58.3
.970 -1.779 -78 6 -551 -.l139 -349 -.272 .176
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
19321125 B17 58.8 .07 Fell to 58.00
.941 -.286 -39 -7 -272 .068 -73 .128 -.171
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19350305 B17 100.1 .324 Fell to 97.00
.973 -.185 -72 -37 -402 -.042 -101 .006 -.023
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19380126 B17 123.2 .036 ??? Fell to 118.5
.961 .400 11 -2 59 .044 -36 -.101 -.069
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
19380525 B17 .046 .307 Fell to 107.7
.962 -.341 -55 -3 -291 -.045 -51 -.033 -.146
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19380815 B17 136.5 .048
8/12/1938 B17 136.5 .408 No paper loss
.963 .059 -36 -15 -186 -.015 -83 .025 .151
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19411212 B17 110.6 .02 DJI fell to 106.3
.964 -.497 -57 24 -304 .046 -206 -.328 -.133
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
19430810 B17 136.2 .041 Fell to 129.60 before reversing.
.971 -.711 -69 12 -347 -.202 -189 -.271
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19470114 B17 172.6 .064 Fell to 172.1
.980 -.088 -62 29 -258 .092 -140 .285 .031 -.016
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
19470317 B17 173.4 .063 .066 Fell to 163.6
.972 -.546 -50 12 205 0 -107 -.02 -.016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19470516 B17 165 .12 .118 Fell to 163.6
Next Sell was S4 on 10/22/1947 with DJI at 184.4
.971 -.21 -143 -41 -594 .221 -188 -.222 -.095
--------------------------------------------------------------------
???? 19480316 B17 165.4 .168
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
19481108 B17 178.2 .011 1.6 % Reversing
Fell to 171.2 Paper Loss = 4%
Next Sell was S12 on 1/7/1949 with DJI at 181.3
.962 -.225 146 -3 625 .122 221 .078 -.027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
19510629 B17 242.6 .134 no paper loss
.934 -.958 -95 -20 -271 .018 -494 -.01 -.056
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19511029 B17 260.4 .053 Fell to 257.1
.974 -.906 -58 14 -164 .007 -424 -.11 -.025
------------------------------------------------------------------------
19511105 B17 259.8 .055 Fell to 257.1
.970 -.692 -105 -1 -318 -.035 -286 -.186 -.012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19551011 B17 438.6 .183 no paper loss
.934 -.958 -95 -20 -271 .018 -494 .063 -.056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19551018 B17 448.6 .156 no paper loss
.974 -.906 -58 14 -164 .007 -424 -.041 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19570205 B17 470 .1 Fell to 454.8
.975 -.621 -97 -33 -307 -.085 -341 -.365 -.034
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19570213 B17 462.1 .119 no paper loss
.975 -.569 -134 52 -425 -.061 -418 -.267 -.055
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19571028 B17 432.1 .49
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
19590909 B17 637.6 .053
19590923 B17 624 .076
19600303 B17 612 .021
19601025 B17 566 .239
19671113 B17 859.74 .057
19680304 B17 830.56 .111
19690220 B17 916.65 .037
19690228 B17 905.21 .05
19711110 B17 826.15 .161
19730815 B17 874.17 .028
19740206 B17 824.62 .038
19750916 B17 795.13 .269
19761008 B17 952.38 .034
19770209 B17 933.84 .033
19780228 B17 742.12 .168
19790515 B17 825.88 .073
19791107 B17 796.67 .086
19801209 B17 934.04 .041
19810202 B17 932.25 .095
19811026 B17 830.96 .048
19830809 B17 1168.27 .092
19840307 B17 1143.63 .036
19860714 B17 1793.75 .023
19861119 B17 1826.63 .317
19870519 B17 2221.28 .059
19870904 B17 2561.38 .03
19880121 B17 1879.31 .072
19880325 B17 1978.95 .056
19881111 B17 2065.97 .124
19891026 B17 2613.73 .075
19900123 B17 2615.32 .136
19900201 B17 2586.26 .148
19900925 B17 2485.64 .218
19901010 B17 2407.92 .257
19911205 B17 2889.09 .161
19921007 B17 3152.25 .11
19930922 B17 3547.02 .119
19960717 B17 5376.88 .061
19961212 B17 6303.71 .088
19970401 B17 6611.05 .034
19981214 B17 8695.6 .281
19990527 B17 10466.92 .064
19991018 B17 10116.28 .11
20000309 B17 10010.73 .111
20011031 B17 9075.14 .115
20030311 B17 7524.06 .303
20100122 B17 10172.98 .083
20100209 B17 10058.64 .095
20100819 B17 10271.21 .247
20110608 B17 12048.94 .03
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. = 72 Avg. = .111
29 24 18 1 PE 17 .085 PE + 1 14 .097 PE + 2 16 .148 PE + 3 25 ,112 January 5 .078 February 10 .088 March 9 .133 April 1 .034 May 5 .072 June 2 .082 July 2 .042 August 5 .091 September 6 .128 October 13 .151 November 8 .110 December 6 .136 1-10 23 .080 11-20 26 .132 21-31 23 .118 |
=============================================================
87 Closed Out Cases since 1928. Average Gain = 9.2%
Revised 3/9/2013
Buy B17s takes place when the DJI falls sufficiently below
the 21-day mvg.avg. but still shows a nearly positive or improving
Accumulation Index. Often there is a fairly high reading from the
P-Indicator.
It cannot appear within 12 trading days of a Sell S9 and is
risky to use if a head and shoulders pattern is completed. Do not
trust one where the low for the day is more than 10% below
21-dma.
Seasonality plays
a role with Buy B17s. For example, if there is a
January sell-off i a Presidential Election Year and the DJI drops more
than 8%,
1948, 1960, 1968, 1984 and 2000 all show that it is best to wait until
March
to employ the Buy B17.
There have been 87 Buy B17s
since 1928.
Three types of Buy B17 signals are to be distinguished.
1) The first (green) occurs in a rising market. See the 53
cases;
2) the second (red) occurs in a bear market;
3) the third (fuschia) is seen on a pullback in the first big advance
from a bear
market.
The first bull market
Buy B17 averages a gain of 8.7 in the DJI at the time
of the next Peerless Sell signal. The bear market variety gains
more than 9%,
There are 7 losses, four of them in bull market B17s and three of them
in
bear market Buy B17s.
The third type of B17 shows ?
cases. These are Buy B17s taking place
on the first pullback from the first big recovery from a bear
market. Their
average gain is 5.8%.
B17s that occur in October,
November and December are more than twice
as powerful as B17s that occur in January February, April, July and
August.
The next table needs correction for February and March
during Presidiential Election Years.
---------------------------------- Buy B17s by Month
---------------------------------
Month
Number
Avg., Gain at Time
of Cases of Next Peerless Sell
------------
-----------
-------------------------------
January
5
5%
February
7
4.9%
March
7
12%
April
2
6.1%
May
5
7.5%
June
2
12.9%
July
2
4.9%
August
4
4.5%
September 11
12.5%
October
15
11.4%
November 10
16.0%
December 8
8.9%
-------------------------------------------------
All Cases
88
9.2%
There is strong evidence that Buy B17s should
not be used
immediately after a Sell S10 head and shoulders' neckline failure
or broken support. Usually the next rally will not get past that
resistance and more new lows are needed.
BUY B17 This data must be edited further....
There have been 76 Buy 17s since 1942, The average gain was 9%. Not every single
Buy B17DJI trade was profitable when the DJI was sold at the time of the next major
Peerless Sell, but the 8 losses would have been small, if one also used the judged
Head and Shoulders rules. 39 of the 86 Buy B17s were immediately profitable. 18 were
profitable "almost immediately", meaning the trade's paper loss did not exceed 3% and the DJI
rallied within 6 weeks of the signal. Note that there were where 16 cases the paper loss
ranged between 3% and as much as 12%.
This signal takes place when the DJI falls sufficiently below the 21-day mvg.avg. but
still shows a nearly positive or positive Accumulation Index and a fairly high reading from
the P-Indicator. See the chart of the 2003 bottom above as an example or the chart from
1986 as another.
Sometimes, the signal is based on an improving current Accumulation Index
when there has been a substantial decline..The Buy B17 cannot appear within 12 trading
days of a Sell S9.
BUY B17s: 1928-2010
--------------------Buy B17 ----------------------------- -------- Next Opposite Major Sell Signal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1
...B17 12/ 10/ 1928 263.9 +18.5% 1/ 30/ 1929 312.6 S9/S12
la/ma = .94 21-dma roc=.119 P= -43 (+9) IP21= .01 V=-595 OP= .136
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI rose immediately above the upper band.
la/ma=.94 21dma.roc=.119 la/65dma=1.025 65dma.roc=.357 P=-43 Pchange= 9
IP21= .01 V=-595 OP= .139
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X This would not have occured if one used the Extreme Bearish Mode.
...B17 12/ 20/ 1929 230.9 +8.3% 1/10/31 250 S9 S12
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI rose immediately above the upper band.
la/ma=.971 21dma.roc=.617 la/65dma=.831 65dma.roc=-1.672 P= 15 Pchange=-27
IP21= .099 V=-154 OP= .026 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2
...B17 9/ 13/ 32 69.9 +7.6% 9/ 21/ 32 75.2 S2
(Rally from Bear Market Bottom variety.)
DJI fell 18% from peak and a 33% retracement to 65.16 and then rallied in a few days to upper band.
la/ma=.961 21dma.roc=1.117 la/65dma=1.22 65dma.roc=1.418 P= 49 Pchange=-11
IP21= -.002 V=-53 OP= .081
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3
...B17 3/ 5/ 1935 100.1 +18.6% 6/ 17/ 1935 118.70 S12
la/ma = .973 21-dma roc= -.185 P= -72 (-37) IP21= -.042 10% below top
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI fell to 97 and then rallied in way above the upper band.
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.185 la/65dma=.976 65dma.roc=-.087 P=-72 Pchange=-37
IP21= -.042 V=-101 OP= -.074
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4
...B17 8/ 12/ 1938 136.5 +5.1% 8/ 24/ 1938 143..5 S12
(Rally from Bear Market Bottom variety.)
DJI rose immediately to the upper band.
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=.059 la/65dma=1.069 65dma.roc=.543 P=-36 Pchange=-15
IP21= -.015 V=-83 OP= .025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5
...B17 1/ 12/ 1939 147.3 +1.0% 3/6/1939 148.8 S12
la/ma = .973 21-dma roc= -.11 P= -12 (-25) IP21= .017 V= -45 OP = .057 7% below top
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI fell to 137 and then rallied to the upper band Paper loss = 7%
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.11 la/65dma=.974 65dma.roc=-.026 P=-12 Pchange=-25
IP21= .017 V=-45 OP= .085
Note the first head and shoulders in chart below. Using the rule to sell on the right shoulder apex
of the head and shoulders pattern when the A/D Line uptrend was broken would have meant
selling at 148.10 or at the next day's week opening. This would have avoided an 8% decline
after the head and shoulders pattern's neckline support failed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6
...B17 3/21/1939 143.40 -0.1% 15% paper loss
la/ma = .975 21-dma roc= -.121 P= 11 IP21= .001 12% below top
Note the second head and shoulders in chart below. Using the rule to sell on the right shoulder
apex of the head and shoulders pattern when the A/D Line uptrend was broken would have
meant selling at 139.30 on 3/28/1939 or at the next day's week opening. This would have avoided
a 9% decline after the head and shoulders pattern's neckline support failed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7
...B17 10/ 27/ 1941
119.4
-4.4% 1/ 5/ 1942
114.2 S12
(Bear Market variety.)
Note previous head and shoulders
pattern,. DJI fell to 106 and then
rallied to the upper band.
la/ma=.972 21dma.roc=-.676
la/65dma=.948 65dma.roc=-.281
P=-71 Pchange= 21
- (Very weak internals for a DJI
only 3.8% below 21-dma)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8
...B17 12/ 12/ 1941
110.6
+3.3% 1/ 5/ 1942
114.2 S12
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI fell to 106 and then rallied to the upper band
la/ma=.99 21dma.roc=-.387 la/65dma=.945
65dma.roc=-.346 P=-54 Pchange= 19
IP21= .019 V=-99 OP= -.176
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9
...B17 2/ 13/ 1942
106.7
-7.0% 5/ 11/ 1942
99.2 S9/S12
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI fell to 93 and then rallied to the upper band
la/ma=.974 21dma.roc=-.639 la/65dma=.955 65dma.roc=-.399
P=-58 Pchange=-4
IP21= -.068 V=-67 OP= -.405
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10
...B17 2/ 19/ 1942 105.6
-6.1% 5/ 11/ 1942
99.2 S9/S12
Bear Market variety.)
DJI fell to 93 and then rallied to the upper band
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.536
la/65dma=.95 65dma.roc=-.388 P=-71 Pchange= 0
IP21= -.04 V=-73 OP= -.21
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11
...B17 8/10/43 136.20
-0.5%
11/5/43 135.5
S10
la/ma = .971 21-dma roc= -.711
P= -38 IP21= -.202 7% below top
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI
declined to 129.6 on 11/30/44 and then rallied.
la/ma=.971 21dma.roc=-.711 la/65dma=.968 65dma.roc=-.031 P=-38 Pchange= 7
IP21= -.202 V=-137 OP=
-.356
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12
...B17 2/13/46 198.7
2/18/46
+1.5% 201.6
S6
la/ma=.98 21-dma roc-
.188 P= -35 IP21= .115
Non-symmetrical HS Pattern followed.
(Bull Market variety.)
Quickly formed
a right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern
and fell to low of 186 before rallying past the upper band. .
la/ma=1.028 21dma.roc=.865
la/65dma=1.061 65dma.roc=.423 P= 157 Pchange= 27
IP21= .26 V= 235 OP= .395
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13
...B17 1/14/47 172.6
10/22/47
+9.2% 184.40 S4
(BearMarket variety.)
DJI
declined to 163.6 on 5/19/48 and then rallied. S10 here on 4/14/47? No..
S10s within a base are not so bearish. Nothing to reverse.
la/ma=.98 21dma.roc=-.088
la/65dma=1.005 65dma.roc=.118 P=-62 Pchange= 29
IP21= .092 V=-140 OP= .231
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14
...B17 3/17/47 173.4
10/22/47 +6.3%
184.40 S4
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI
declined to 163.6 on 5/19/48 and then rallied.
S10s within a base are not so bearish. Nothing
to reverse.
la/ma=.972 21dma.roc=-.546
la/65dma=.975 65dma.roc=-.059 P=-50 Pchange= 12
IP21= 0 V=-107 OP= -.145
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15
...B17 5/16/47 165
10/22/47 +11.8%
184.40 S4
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied
immediately.
S10s within a
base are not so bearish. Nothing to reverse.
la/ma=.971 21dma.roc=-.21 la/65dma=.946
65dma.roc=-.379 P=-143 Pchange=-41
IP21= -.221 V=-188 OP= -.249
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16
...B17 11/5/48 178.4
4/15/50 +20.8%
215.50 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI
declined to 161.6 on 6/13/48 and then rallied.
la/ma=.958 21dma.roc=-.504
la/65dma=.967 65dma.roc=-.085 P= 187 Pchange= 4
IP21= .085 V= 285 OP= .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17
...B17 11/24/48 173.4 (also B9)
4/15/1950
+24.3% 215.50 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI declined to 161.6 on 6/13/48 and then rallied.
la/ma=.961 21dma.roc=-1.078 la/65dma=.955 65dma.roc=-.195 P= 78 Pchange=-55
IP21= -.029 V= 152 OP= -.278
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18
...B17 6/29/51 242.60
8/30/51 +11.3%
274.2 S1
la/ma=.973 21-dma
roc- .339 P= -140 IP21= .102
uncompleted non-symmetrical HS Pattern
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied
13% immediately in 10 weeks.
la/ma=.993 21dma.roc=-.555 la/65dma=.959
65dma.roc=-.236 P=-35 Pchange= 24
IP21= -.091 V=-83 OP= -.154
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19
...B17 10/29/51 260.4
1/28/52 +5.3%
274.2 S1
la/ma=.962 21-dma roc= -.478
P= -73 (+22) IP21=.019 6% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately.
la/ma=.962 21dma.roc=-.478 la/65dma=.968
65dma.roc=.018 P=-73 Pchange= 22
IP21= .019 V=-231 OP= -.167
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20
...B17 11/5/51 259.8
1/28/52 +5.5% 274.2 S1
la/ma=.97 21-dma roc=
-.692 P= -105 (-1) IP21= -.035 -286 -.172 6% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.97 21dma.roc=-.692 la/65dma=.965
65dma.roc=-.045 P=-105 Pchange=-1
IP21= -.035 V=-286 OP= -.186
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21
...B17 4/7/53 275.2 .
3/9/1954 +8.8% 299.50 S15
la/ma=.964 21-dma roc=.40 P=-2
IP21=-.018
(Bull Market
variety.)
DJI
declined to 255.5 on 9/14/53 and then rallied.
...S10 4/ 23/
1953 270.7 +2.7% Isolated S10
This is not visually confirmed as a breakdown.
la/ma=.964 21dma.roc=-.4 la/65dma=.962
65dma.roc=-.225 P=-2 Pchange=-6
IP21= -.018 V=-148 OP= -.081
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22
...B17 9/26/55 455.6
9/26/55 +7.9%
491.4 S12
la/ma=.957 21-dma
roc= -.143 P= -26 (-59) IP21= .08 -300 .169 6%
down from high
(Bull Market
variety.)
DJI declined to 438.6 on 10/11/55 and then rallied.
la/ma=.957 21dma.roc=-.143
la/65dma=.982 65dma.roc=.056 P= 26 Pchange=-59
IP21= .08 V=-300 OP= .217
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23
...B17 10/11/55 438.6
9/26/55 +12.0% 491.4 S12
la/ma=.934 21-dma roc=
-.958 P= -95 (-20) IP21= .018 -494 - .042 6% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.934 21dma.roc=-.958 la/65dma=.944
65dma.roc=-.212 P=-95 Pchange=-20
IP21= .018 V=-494 OP= .014
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24
...B17 10/18/55 448.6
9/26/55 +9.5% 491.4 S12
la/ma=.974 21-dma roc=
-.906 P= -58 (+14) IP21= .007 -424 - .146 6% down from high
(Bull Market
variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.974 21dma.roc=-.906
la/65dma=.968 65dma.roc=-.096 P=-58 Pchange= 14
IP21= .007 V=-424 OP= -.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25
...B17 2/5/57
470
7/8/57 +10.3% 518.40
S9
la/ma=.982 21-dma roc= -.132
P= 12 IP21=-.064 8% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI
fell to 455 a week lated and then rallied above upper band.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.621
la/65dma=.968 65dma.roc=-.131 P=-97 Pchange=-33
IP21= -.085 V=-341 OP= -.342
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
26
...B17 2/13/57 462.1
7/8/57 +12.2% 518.40 S9
la/ma=.977 21-dma roc=
-.606 P= -112 IP21=-.067 12% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.569
la/65dma=.957 65dma.roc=-.212 P=-134 Pchange= 52
IP21= -.061 V=-418 OP= -.239
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27
...B17 10/28/57 432.10
4/17/50 +44.4% 624.1 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.972 21dma.roc=-.662
la/65dma=.918 65dma.roc=-.673 P=-193 Pchange=-23
IP21= -.125 V=-705 OP= -.422
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
28 9/9/59 637.6
12/8/59 +5.9% 685.5 S8
4% paper loss
Simultaneous H/S
la/ma=.974
21-dma roc= -.294 P= -104 (14) IP21=-.016 5% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Fell to 617 and then rallied.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
29
...B17 9/15/59 630.8
1/5/60
+8.7% 685.5 S9 2% loss Simultaneous H/S
la/ma=.971
21-dma roc= -.51 P= -172 IP21=-.045 5%
down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
Fell to
617 and then rallied.
la/ma=.971 21dma.roc=-.51 la/65dma=.965
65dma.roc=.02 P=-172 Pchange=-33
IP21= -.045 V=-533 OP= -.277
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30
...B17 9/23/59 624
12/8/59 +9.9% 685.5 S9 none
Simultaneous H/S
la/ma=.972
21-dma roc= -.541 P= -203 IP21=-.085 8% down from
high
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
In the chart below, see
that it would have been safer not use a Buy B17 until the minimum
downside objective has been reached.
That was the bottom. One could also have waited
for the steep A/D Line downtrend to be
violated to the upside to Buy again.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X This signal was replace in March 2013 with a B17 in March
in keeping with
the patterns of sell-offs producing 10% or more declines in the first
quarter
of a Presidential Election Year.
...B17 2/11/60 618.60
5/18/60 +0.7% 623 S12
3% paper loss
la/ma=.972
21-dma roc= -.705 P= -124 IP21= -.172 13% down from high
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI declined
to 599.6 on 5/2/60 and then rallied.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
31 3/3/1960 612.00
Gain = 1.0% Paper loss = 2.1%
.981
-.474
84
-.073
-383
-.178
This is in place of former Buy B17 on 2/11/1960
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
32
...B17 10/25/60 566.00 .
8/3/61 +26.4% 715.7 S15
Rallied immediately.
(Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.227
la/65dma=.936 65dma.roc=-.228 P=-107 Pchange= 18
IP21= -.108 V=-473 OP= -.183
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
33
...B17 11/13/67 859.74
1/9/68 +5.6% 908.29 S12
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.975
21-dma roc= -.719 P= -232 (+10) IP21= -.218 V=-19
OP=-.515 10% down from high
(Bull Market
variety.)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This B17 signal has been replaced by a March 1968 Buy B17.
X ...B17 2/14/68 837.38
7/11/68 +10.2% 922.82 S12 2% paper loss
la/ma=.971
21-dma roc= -.762 P= -260 (+10) IP21= -.178 V=-22 OP=-.425 10% down
from high
(Bull Market
variety.) . DJI was down
13% from high.)
. Bottom was 3/22/1968 from 826.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
34 Buy B17 3/4/1968 830.56 Gain = 17.7%
Paper Loss = 0.5%
.982
-.350
-197
-.087
-18 -.051
Bottom not made
until 3/22/1968
Here the signal
waits until IP21 rises above it 21-day ma by +.02 or
or the IP21
21-day ma turns up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
35
...B17 2/20/69 916.65
4/30/69 +3.7% 950.18 S9 Rallied almost immediately.
la/ma=.974
21-dma roc= -.167 P= -139 (-31) IP21= .016 V=-2 OP= .115
(Bull Market variety.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
36
...B17 2/25/69 899.80
4/30/69 +5.6% 950.18 S9 Rallied almost immediately
la/ma=.97
21-dma roc= -.423 P= -264 (-1) IP21= -.056 V=-3
OP= .041 10% down from high
(Bull Market
variety.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
37
...B17 2/28/69 905.21 .
4/30/69 +5.0%
950.18 S9
(Bull Market
variety.)
Rallied immediately
la/ma=.97 21dma.roc=-.423 la/65dma=.955
65dma.roc=-.238 P=-264 Pchange=-1
IP21= .006 V=-3 OP= .064
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
38
...B17 11/10/71 826.15
3/9/72 +14.1% 942.81 S4
(Bear Market
variety.)
DJI declined to 797.97 on 11/23/71 and then rallied.
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.941 la/65dma=.938 65dma.roc=-.059 P=-270 Pchange=-45
IP21= -.178 V=-4 OP= -.387.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X This signal
should be considered void, because there was a simultaneous Sell S10.
...B17 2/26/73 959.79
4/11/73
+1.4% 967.41 S9 4% paper loss
la/ma=.972 21-dma roc= -.613 P=-260
(9) IP21= -.126 V= -4 OP= -.31
(Bull Market variety.)
DJI declined to 922.71 on 3/23/73 and then rallied.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
39
...B17 8/15/73 874.17
9/4/73
+2.4% 895.39 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately. Boittom was
8/22/73 at 851.90.
la/ma=.961 21dma.roc=-.312 la/65dma=.97
65dma.roc=-.152 P=-155 Pchange=-13
IP21= .005 V=-2 OP= .099
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
40
...B17 2/6/74 824.62
2/22/74 +3.8% 855.99
S12
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately. Boittom was
2/11/74 at 803.90.
la/ma=.972 21dma.roc=-.52 la/65dma=.969
65dma.roc=-.561 P=-44 Pchange= 33
IP21= -.078 V=-2 OP= -.206
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
41
...B17 9/16/75 795.13
10/21/75 +6.5% 846.82 S12 none incomplete H/S Shoulders
la/ma=.974
21-dma roc= -.444 P=-160 (-50) IP21= -.133
V= -3 OP= -.232
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42
...B17 10/8/76 952.38 (also
B2) 12/27/76 +4.6% 996.09 S8 2% Paper Loss
la/ma=.964
21-dma roc= -.415
P=-150 (-12) IP21= -.042 V= -3 OP= -.374
(Bull Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately. Boittom was
11/10/75 at 924.04.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
43
...B17 2/9/77 933.84
3/15/77 +3.3% 965.01 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.531 la/65dma=.969 65dma.roc=0 P=-46 Pchange= 0
IP21= -.072 V=-2 OP= -.228
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
44
...B17 2/21/78 749.32 .
6/13/78 +14.4% 856.98 S8
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.427
la/65dma=.938 65dma.roc=-.423 P=-53 Pchange=-17
IP21= -.07 V=-2 OP= -.237
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
45
...B17 5/15/79 825.88
8/23/79
+6.6% 880.38 S4 No paper loss H/S Shoulders
la/ma=.972
21-dma roc= -.484 P= -150 (+38) IP21= -.107 V= -3 OP=
.072
Minimum downside objective reached from
completed H/S Pattern.
(Bull Market variety.)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
46
...B17 11/7/79 796.67
1/16/80
+8.6% 865.19 S4 Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.972 21-dma roc= -.882 P=-275 (+34)
IP21= -.101 V= -9 OP= -.573
(Bull
Market variety.)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
47
...B17 12/9/80 934.04
1/2/81
+3.5% 972.78 S12 3% Paper Loss
H/S pattern
la/ma=.96 21-dma roc= -.02 P=-123 (-7)
IP21= -.062 V= -1 OP= -.152
(Bull
Market variety.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
48
...B17 2/2/81 932.25
4/1/81
+8.8% 932.25 S12 Rallied
immediately. H/S pattern
la/ma=.971
21-dma roc= -.501 P= -120 IP21= -.005
(Bull Market variety.)
Minimum
downside objective reached from completed H/S Pattern.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
49
...B17 10/26/81 830.96
4/1/82 +0.3% 833.24 S9
(Bear Market
variety.)
DJI declined to 776.92 on 8/12/82 and then rallied.
la/ma=.972 21dma.roc=.097 la/65dma=.939
65dma.roc=-.46 P= 100 Pchange= 46
IP21= .069 V= 2 OP= -.067
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50
...B17 8/9/83 1168.27 .
11/22/83 +9.2% 1275.81 S4 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.971 21-dma
roc= -.467 P--239 (-19) IP21-
.022 V= -14 OP= -.028
Supoprt line held after B17 and fifth test.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
51 ...B17 5/22/84 1116.82
10/19/84 +9.8% 1225.93 S1
(Down
13.5% from peak...??? >> Bull Market Variety.)
DJI declined to 1086.57 on 7/24/84 and then rallied.
la/ma=1.027
21dma.roc=.345 la/65dma=1.021 65dma.roc=-.116 P= 3 Pchange= 39
IP21= .032 V= 0 OP= .225
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52. Buy B17 1143.63 Gain = +3.6% No
Paper Loss Gain = +3.6%
. 989 -.315 -208
-.021 -11 -.173
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53
...B17 7/14/86 1973.45
8/12/86 +2.3% 1835.49 S9 Rallied almost immediately.
(Bull
Market variety.) 6% down from high
la/ma=.962 21dma.roc=-.285
la/65dma=.977 65dma.roc=-.002 P=-48 Pchange=-44 IP21= .018 V=-5 OP= .088
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
54
...B17 9/11/86 1792.89
5/6/87
+30.6% 2342.19 S9 Rallied almost immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.955 21dma.roc=-.27 la/65dma=.973 65dma.roc=-.093
P=-25 Pchange=-106 IP21= .074 V=-7 OP= -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
55
...B17 11/19/86 1826.63
5/6/87 +28.2% 2342.19 S9 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.98
21dma.roc=.134 la/65dma=.994 65dma.roc=-.076 P=-7 Pchange=-26 IP21= .089 V=-2 OP= .113
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
56
...B17 5/19/87 2221.28 .
6/8/87 +5.9%
2353.61 S12 Rallied
immediately.
(Bull
Market variety.)
la/ma=.97 21dma.roc=-.256 la/65dma=.97 65dma.roc=.063
P=-153 Pchange=-34 IP21= -.086 V=-10 OP= -.158
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
57
...B17 9/4/87 2561.38
9/4/87
+3.0% 2561.38 S9 Rallied almost immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.963
21dma.roc=-.147 la/65dma=1.015 65dma.roc=.342 P=-117 Pchange=-49 IP21= .019 V=-12 OP=
-.102
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
58
...B17 12/2/87 1848.97
12/28/87 +5.1% 1942.97
S9
(Bear Market
variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=-1.02
la/65dma=.827 65dma.roc=-1.394 P=-139 Pchange=-23
IP21= .004 V=-27 OP= -.089
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
59
...B17 3/25/88 1978.95 B9
4/14/88 +1.3%
1978.95 S1
(Rally up off Bear Market Bottom
variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=-.223
la/65dma=.994 65dma.roc=0 P= 3 Pchange=-32
IP21= .071 V=-3 OP= .002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
60
...B17 11/11/88 2067.03 .
10/4/89
+34.1% 2771.09 S9 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=-.367
la/65dma=.986 65dma.roc=.05 P=-133 Pchange=-50 IP21= .025 V=-15 OP= -.053
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
61
...B17 10/17/89 2638.73
1/2/90
+6.5% 2810.15
S15 1% Paper Loss.
(Bull
Market variety.)
la/ma=.974 21dma.roc=-.214 la/65dma=.983 65dma.roc=.12 P=-91
Pchange=-16 IP21= .106 V=-6 OP= .091
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
62
...B17 10/26/89 2613.73
1/2/90 + 7.5%
2810.15 S15 Rallied
immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.967 21dma.roc=-.261 la/65dma=.97 65dma.roc=.043
P=-116 Pchange=-26 IP21= .161 V=-14 OP= .059
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
63
...B17 1/23/90 2615.32 .
7/12/90 +13.2% 2969.80 S9 2% paper loss
(Bull Market variety.
la/ma=.961 21dma.roc=-.331 la/65dma=.972 65dma.roc=-.098 P=-93
Pchange=-24 IP21= .03 V=-19 OP= .021
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
64
...B17 2/1/1990 2586.26
7/12/90 +14.8% 2969.80 S9 1% paper loss
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.971
21dma.roc=-.995 la/65dma=.964 65dma.roc=-.025 P=-313 Pchange= 3 IP21= -.034 V=-38
OP= -.335
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
65
...B17 9/25/90 2485.64
4/15/92 +34.9%
3353.76 S9
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied almost immediately.
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=-.218
la/65dma=.903 65dma.r oc=-.519 P=-118 Pchange=-14
IP21= .057 V=-18 OP= -.061
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
66
...B17 10/10/90 2407.92
4/15/92 +39.3% 3353.76 S9|
(Bear Market variety.)
Rallied immediately.
la/ma=.96 21dma.roc=-.967 la/65dma=.898
65dma.roc=-.691 P=-314 Pchange=-30
IP21= -.016 V=-37 OP= -.267
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
67
...B17 11/22/91 2902.73
4/14/92 +13.9% 3306.13 S9 Rallied almost immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.962 21dma.roc=-.447 la/65dma=.962 65dma.roc=-.134
P=-62 Pchange=-5 IP21= .054 V=-16 OP= -.128
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
68
...B17 12/5/91 2889.09
4/14/92 +14.4% 3306.13
S9 Rallied
immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.975
21dma.roc=-.57 la/65dma=.962 65dma.roc=-.153 P=-128 Pchange=-15 IP21= .034 V=-23
OP= -.193
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
69
...B17 9/22/93 3547.02
2/23/94
+11.9% 3967.66
S4 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.98 21dma.roc=-.194 la/65dma=.994 65dma.roc=.039 P= 12
Pchange= 36 IP21= .089 V=-13 OP= -.057
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70
...B17 7/17/96 5376.88
8/9/96 +5.7%
5681 S2 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.959 21dma.roc=-.585
la/65dma=.957 65dma.roc=-.148 P=-268 Pchange= 55 IP21= -.012 V=-62 OP=
.01
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
71
...B17 12/12/96 6303.71
4/22/97
+8.4% 6833.69 S9 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.981
21-dma roc= .07 P= 22 (-47) IP21= .083 V=
-20 OP= .06
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
72
...B17 4/1/97 6611.05
4/22/97 +3.4% 6833.69 S9
Rallied almost immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.) Note head/shoulders
pattern was completed.
la/ma=.960
21-dma roc= -.46 P=-232 (+9) IP21= -.005
V= -55 OP= -.078
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
734
...B17 10/28/97 7498.32
11/20/97 +4.4% 7826.61
S12 Rallied immediately.
This was also a Buy B1 and B19. This was 13.4% down from
high.
(Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.944 21-dma roc= -.737 P= -175 (+2) IP21= .037
V= -48 OP= -.058
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
74
...B17 12/14/98 8695.60 .96
2/23/99 +9.8% 9544.42
S9 Rallied immediately.
(Recovery
from Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.96 21dma.roc=-.176
la/65dma=1.021 65dma.roc=.407 P=-130 Pchange=-54 IP21= .028 V=-51 OP=
-.019
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
75
...B17 5/27/99 10466.32 .963
5/27/99 +3.7%
10855.55 S12 2%
paper loss
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.963 21dma.roc=-.414 la/65dma=1.017 65dma.roc=.399 P=-90
Pchange=-65 IP21= -.019 V=-70 OP= -.205
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
76
...B17 10/18/99 10116.28 .
12/28/99
+13.4% 11476.718 S9 Rallied immediately.
(Bull Market
variety.)
la/ma=.973 21dma.roc=-.785 la/65dma=.94
65dma.roc=-.391 P=-505 Pchange=-60 IP21= -.075 V=-159 OP= -.24
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X Version 3/9/2013 replaced this B17 with a March Buy
B17.
...B17 2/4/2000 10963.8
4/6/2000
+1.4% 11114.27 S1 11%
paper loss H/S pattern
(Bull
Market variety.)
DJI declined to 9086.57 on 7/24/84 and then rallied.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.168 la/65dma=.985 65dma.roc=.132 P=-53
Pchange=-30 IP21= -.102 V=-73 OP= .038
See in the chart below that a judged
Sell based on the right shoulder apex being
clinched as A/D
Line turned down would have also have occurred on 2/4/2000.
This should have
negated the Buy B17. The DJI subsequently fell 11%
more with the
Head and Shoulders pattern playing out its minimum downside
objective.
Later buying when the A/D Line downtrend was broken would
have avoided the
11% paper loss and meant buying on 3/15/2000 at 10131.41
or at the next
day's opening.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[
77 B17 3/9/2000 10010.73
Gain = 11.1% Paper Loss - 0
.976
-1.094
-413
-.136 -139
-.028
This replaced previous Buy B17 of 2/14/2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
78
...B17 10/20/2000 10226.59 . B2
12/8/2000 +4.8% 10712.91 S12
Rallied immediately.
(Bear
Market variety.)
DJI declined to 9811.24 on 3/14/00 and then rallied.
la/ma=.975 21dma.roc=-.61 la/65dma=.945
65dma.roc=-.22 P=-295 Pchange= 49 IP21= -.026 V=-134 OP= -.141
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
79
...B17 3/23/2001 9504.78
4/10/01 +6.3% 10102.74 S12
Rallied immediately.
(Bear
Market variety.)
la/ma=.929 21dma.roc=-1.183 la/65dma=.899 65dma.roc=-.415
P=-181 Pchange= 80 IP21= -.007 V=-231 OP= -.098
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
80
...B17 9/3/2002 8308.05 956
1/6/03 +5.6%
8773.57 S12 13% Paper Loss
(Bear
Market variety.)
DJI declined to 7286.27 on 10/19/2002 and then rallied.
la/ma=.956 21dma.roc=-.007 la/65dma=.933 65dma.roc=-.697 P= 189
Pchange=-16 IP21= .122 V=-29 OP= .027
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
81
...B17 3/11/03 7524.06
10/15/03 +30.3% 9803.05 S4
Rallied immediately.
(Bear
Market variety.)
la/ma=.962
21dma.roc=-.516 la/65dma=.914 65dma.roc=-.566 P=-102 Pchange= 27
IP21= -.033 V=-196 OP= -.117
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
82
...B17 3/2/07 12114.1
7/17/07 +15.3% 13971.55 S9 Rallied immediately
(Bull
Market variety.)
la/ma=.962 21dma.roc=-.479 la/65dma=.971 65dma.roc=-.052 P= 77
Pchange=-82 IP21= -.022 V=-202 OP= -.093
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
83
...B17 11/23/07 12980.88 B19
3/24/08 +4.9% 12548.64 S9 Rallied immediately.
(Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.958 21dma.roc=-.779
la/65dma=.943 65dma.roc=-.124 P=-414 Pchange= 140 IP21= -.089 V=-315 OP= -.217
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X (This signal has been excluded.
...B17 10/8/08 9258.10 B16, B1
10/14/08 +0.6% 9310.99 S10
(Bear Market variety.)
DJI declined to 8000 intra-day on 10/10/2009 and then rallied.
la/ma=.862 21dma.roc=-2.168 la/65dma=.826 65dma.roc=-.728 P=-791 Pchange= 31
IP21= -.032 V=-375 OP= -.176
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
84
...B17 1/26/09 8116.03 .
1/29/09 +0.4% 8149.01 S6
(Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.957 21dma.roc=-.425
la/65dma=.944 65dma.roc=-.411 P= 177 Pchange= 74
IP21= .063 V=-105 OP= -.092
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X This should be excluded because DJI was down more than 40% in previous 10
months.
Should use EXTREME BEARISH MODE.
...B17 2/17/09
7552.60
2/27/09 -6.5%
7062.93 S5
(Recovery
from Bear Market variety.)
la/ma=.937
21dma.roc=-.971 P= 117
Pchange=-140 IP21= -.003 V=-189 OP=- .137
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X This should be eliminated because low of day was more than 10%
below 21-dma
...B17 5/6/10
10520.32
6/16/10
-1.1% 10409.46 S12
This was also a Buy B5
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.953 21dma.roc=-.406 P=
-62 Pchange= 74 IP21= .071 V=-285 OP= .237
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
85
...B17 8/24/10
10040.45
OPEN
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.961 21dma.roc=-.571 P= -144
Pchange = -165 IP21= .016 V=-220 OP= -.523
DJI fell to 9700 (Paper Loss of 3%) and then rallied above upper band.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
86
...B17 6/8/11
12048.94 Gain =
3.0%
Paper
Loss = (12048.94 - 11897.27)
12048.94
(Bull Market variety.)
la/ma=.97 21dma.roc=-.608
P= -157 (-127) IP21= .067 V= -203 OP= -.218
DJI soon recovered to the upper band.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
87
...B17 9 /26/ /11 11043.86
Gain =
9.5%
Paper
Loss = (11043.86 -
10655.30) / 11043.86
The bottom here showed a classic false
breakdown, based on the many internal strnegth indicators
which did not confirm this low. Note also the many Buy signals.