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www.tigersoft.com/55HEP/INDEX.htm
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HELP
A Guide
To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and
Sells.
Peerless Buy and
Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different Types of
TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
-----> More HELP LINKS
Documentation for TigerSoft
Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable support is the
DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY Charts since
1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016 ---> Corrections,Deeper
Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016
---> High
Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 ---> Presidential
Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016 ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to
2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016 --->
Killer Short Selling
Techniques: ===> Order Here ($42.50)
It's As Easy as 1,2,3
TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling... Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
Earlier Q-Answers
QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
Our Different
Signals
Better understand the difference between
Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of
TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
New TigerPeerless Installation and
Basic Uses' Instruction
See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells.
Study- Trading SPY
WITHOUT Peerless - Some Guidelines.
When completed this will be a new Tiger Trading E-Book.
Study- Examples of
"Hands above the Head" top patterns.
Study- 9/3/2017 TigerSoft (not
Peerless) charts of Major Tops as they occurred.
===> Please report any broken or out-of-date links. william_schmidt@hotmail.com
====================================================================
====================================================================
6/25/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S9V. Stay short DIA.
There were a number of bearish technical developments that suggest
a deeper decline than just to the lower 3.5% band at 24000.
The DJI has fallen back to its rising 200-day ma. That should bring
in some automatic buying. If it does not, that will be a bearish sign.
Without a Peerless Buy signal, I think we must just stay short DIA.
The NYSE A/D Line broke its uptrend-line. I have been warnng that
this could unleash a new round of selling in groups that have held up
to this point. Tech stocks were particularly weak today. See
the
NASDAQ chart below. AAPL now shows a bearish H/S. Even
mighty AMZN got hit hard. Value-Investing is now on the defensive,
judging from the breakdown in Berkshire Hathaway's stock below
very well-tested support. See its chart further below. Mergers may be
in trouble, considering how weak oil refiners have been for the last week
or two. And the big bank stocks are close to serious breakdowns. See
the charts of BAC and JPM below.
All this weakness will likely make it hard for the DJI and the market
to put in a bottom until prices go lower.
As was expected, because this is what happened in 2000 and
2008,
the NASDAQ and QQQ are playing "catchup" with the DJI's downside.
We may or may not get a Peerless Buy B2 signal at 24000 and
the lower 3.5%
band. We will have to wait and see. But there's no getting around the
signs that both Big Money and Professionals are beating a hasty retreat
from the blue chips and there are ample precedents for the DJI leading
the entire market lower. (This has been a running theme in recent Hotlines.)
Whether it is the fears of a wild and unpredictable gunfight
in the arena
of international trade or its the growing sense that the Debt held by the US
Government, by US Consumers and by folks buying houses, car loans or
paying off their student loans is reaching unsustainable levels, we will
find out. Either of these high anxieties are enough to bring profit-taking.
And the profit-taking is now causing real technical damage. Moreover,
I can't help noting the reports that debt delinquncies are on the rise. This also
occurred in 2007. And it was big Bank stocks' tops back then that
were the first important signs of big trouble. Moreover, the Dollar
broke its uptrend today. Is this a sign that China may be selling a lot
more US Treasuries?
Look belolw at how JPM and BAC are sitting precariously at
their
well-tested flat price-supports. If these key bank stocks do what CAT
and Bershire Hathaway did today, they will break below their key supports.
That will bring about a new wave of technical selling. And if the mutual funds,
as a result of this, start loading up on leveraged Index shorts as insurance
against a much bigger decline, then we are bound to see a test of the
February lows at 23400-23500.
|
|
|
|
Charts 6/25/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/25/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/625/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/625/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/25/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 242.31 -3.38 246.88 -150.4% Bearish RED .04 ------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7532.01 -160.81 7725.58 -139% ---- RED .232 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 271 -3.74 275.5 -100.9% Bearish RED .126 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 171.37 -3.95 176 -145.6% ---- RED .189 .067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 356.52 -5.16 362.14 -84.7% ---- RED .105 .046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 165.08 -2.74 168.61 -104.3% ---- RED .233 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 63.82 -2.25 66.77 -277% Bearish RED .007 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 44.98 -2.01 46.15 -75.8% ---- RED .061 .379
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 146.78 -14.22 168.59 -830.6% Bearish RED .245 -.02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 133.19 -8.78 145.83 -529.1% ---- RED .243 .133
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.2 -2.03 112.04 -10.2% Bullish RED .224 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 119.89 -.45 120.8 -50.6% Bearish RED -.34 -.054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.5 -.68 25.8 -79.4% Bearish RED -.081 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.03 -1.45 22.21 77.5% Bearish RED -.047 .156
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.74 -.29 32.63 -9.2% ---- BLUE -.143 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.86 -.04 25.04 -22% Bullish ---- -.019 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.25 .14 102.14 18.1% ---- ---- -.088 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.59 .84 50.19 188% Bullish BLUE .087 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.28 -.13 6.31 -117.3% Bearish ---- -.104 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 26.11 -1.66 29.48 -858.8% Bearish RED .133 -.236
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.86 -.02 20.3 141.6% ---- BLUE .015 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 182.17 -2.75 185.69 -176.4% Bearish RED .006 .048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1124.81 -30.67 1168.06 -208.8% Bullish RED .184 .098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.39 -2.02 100.86 -122.2% Bearish RED .021 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1663.15 -52.52 1734.78 -175.2% ---- RED .175 .168
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 196.35 -5.39 197.49 -48.9% Bullish RED .252 .199
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 239.12 -11.83 260.17 -501.1% ---- RED .093 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 331.2 -7.71 341.12 -343.1% Bearish RED -.095 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 221.54 -4.48 228.32 -215.9% Bearish RED -.132 -.129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 196.38 -1.03 199.21 -108.1% Bullish RED .233 .142
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 136.58 -3.36 143.3 -423.3% Bearish RED -.247 -.086
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180625
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 65
NEWLOWS 109 Bearish
MAXCP 29
MINCP 258 Bearish
TTTNH 41
TTTNL 471 Bearish
FASTUP 73
FASTDOWN 214 Bearish
CPCROSSA 25
CPCROSSD 168 Bearish
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 14
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180625
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 29 21 72 %
UTILITY 41 4 10 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
RETAIL 52 2 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
REIT 173 5 3 %
BIOTECH 410 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 61 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 186 3 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SP500 477 8 2 %
ELECTRON 175 2 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 157 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 10 1 %
SP-100 94 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180625
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
FOOD 9 3 33 %
MINCP 258 60 23 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
HOMEBLDG 17 2 12 %
ETFS 61 6 10 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
CHINA 61 5 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
FINANCE 90 6 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
ELECTRON 175 9 5 %
SEMI 128 7 5 %
BIOTECH 410 17 4 %
COMODITY 56 2 4 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 186 6 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
MILITARY 37 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
OILGAS 157 4 3 %
RUS-1000 819 22 3 %
SP500 477 12 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
SP-100 94 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
INDMATER 82 1 1 %
INDEXES 189 2 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/25/18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .93 .936 .919 .919 .901 .913
RETAIL .846 .846 .865 .903 .865 .865
BEVERAGE .75 .7 .6 .65 .6 .55
REGBANKS .709 .87 .838 .838 .838 .838
NIFTY .689 .827 .862 .862 .758 .793
UTILITY .682 .609 .56 .536 .512 .365
GUNS .666 .666 .666 .722 .666 .666
COMPUTER .652 .695 .695 .782 .782 .782
COAL .625 .75 .875 .75 .75 .875
NASD-100 .606 .685 .685 .764 .674 .73
DOWJONES .6 .6 .433 .6 .633 .666
CHEM .596 .612 .596 .629 .629 .677
SP-100 .595 .627 .553 .638 .638 .659
SP500 .587 .631 .607 .666 .643 .67
RUS-1000 .586 .648 .623 .684 .667 .688
SOFTWARE .578 .703 .75 .781 .781 .796
EDU .571 .714 .571 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .571 .678 .714 .714 .678 .678
HOSPITAL .571 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
PIPELINE .571 .714 .571 .714 .714 .714
BIOTECH .57 .634 .612 .665 .614 .624
INDEXES .56 .629 .582 .645 .645 .634
FIDSTKS .553 .618 .586 .666 .655 .672
OILGAS .535 .675 .573 .687 .643 .687
BONDFUND .531 .585 .576 .495 .522 .405
HACKERS .521 .608 .695 .695 .695 .695
FINANCE .511 .644 .611 .622 .6 .666
N=27
===========================================================================================
GREEN .466 .533 .533 .566 .6 .633
ELECTRON .462 .582 .605 .628 .6 .651
BIG17 .456 .5 .565 .608 .565 .565
MILITARY .432 .567 .513 .594 .54 .648
AUTO .425 .525 .55 .6 .575 .625
SEMI .421 .554 .57 .617 .578 .632
HOMEBLDG .411 .411 .47 .47 .47 .47
TRANSP .4 .5 .65 .75 .65 .75
INDMATER .39 .56 .5 .536 .56 .609
INFRA .352 .588 .411 .558 .529 .676
DJI-13 .307 .461 .23 .461 .461 .538
GOLD .26 .32 .28 .3 .3 .36
INSURANC .258 .354 .29 .387 .483 .419
SOLAR .238 .285 .333 .285 .285 .285
COMODITY .214 .303 .214 .25 .214 .321
CHINA .213 .278 .262 .311 .295 .459
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
JETS .1 .2 .5 .6 .6 .7
ETFS .081 .131 .098 .131 .098 .196
FOOD 0 .111 .111 .111 .111 .222
N=20
|
====================================================================
6/22/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S9V. Stay short
DIA.
Avoid being long over-extended stocks whose Closing Power uptrend is
broken. QQQ's Closing Power uptrend was violated on Friday.
Professionals have become aggressively more bearish. The number of
MINCPs is more than twice the number of MAXCPs.
How is this for a short sale? Look out below, Warren. (Chart added
Monday AM)
There should be good support at 24000, but we must wait for a new
Peerless buy signal to take more than trading positions or to cover our
DIA short sales. Keep in mind, how much weaker the DJI and DIA have
been than most other ETFs. See Table 1 below.
|
|
Warning Signs
An increasing number of important and previously leading stocks
made false breakouts last week and then turned down sharply.
See the chart of CDNA, CRM, GOOG and INTU for example
here: http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/WARNING/WARN622.htm
On this page, you will see a number of stocks have developed bearish
head/shoulders top patterns. Examples: AXP, CSCO, CTXS, EXPD,
FL and NKTR. We must also watch to see if the big bank
stocks, BAC, JPM and GS break below the well-tested support-lines
they are approaching and if IBM and AAL (American Airlines) breakdown
below the key support level that they are approaching.
History teaches us that the DJI can lead the general market down.
See the 1977, 2001 and 2002 charts in the 6/21/2018 hotline below.
A break in the NYSE A/D Line is what seems to let the air out of the
technical balloon. Moreover, we know from the experience of 2000
and 2007 that the NASDAQ can top out a month or two after the DJI,
following which it then collapses more quickly than the DJI. Biotechs
could be a haven for money coming out of blue-chips, but they, too,
could crash and burn if the market's bubble is broken, as it was in 2000
and 2008.
The bulls will tell you that the earnings are still rising. But that is mostly
a result of Trump's tax cuts and de-regulation. I would suggest that the
bullish benefits of Trump's policies were widely anticipated in last year's
big advance, so new pro-Wall Street Trump policies are now needed to
spur on the bull market. Starting a trade war with China is apt to have the
exact opposite effect and it is inflationary. So, I would suggest that more
profit-taking is likely.
And that is what Peerless tells us, too, though we may get a Buy B2 if the DJI
falls to the lower 3.5% band, which is now at 24000. This will depend on the
internals of the market this coming week. It could be just in time for a rally
near the normally bullish period right around July 4th.
But be care in here. The eight trading days prior to Friday's bounce were
all down. History teaches that a set of five to eight straight down days is more
than twice as likely to be leading to a significant decline than an intermediate
term rally. See the numbers shown on Thursday night's Hotline.
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/22/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 245.69 1.19 249.73 -102% RED .078 ---
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7692.82 -20.13 7747.02 -34.6% RED .193 .074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 274.74 .5 276.56 -43.3% RED .177 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 175.32 -.39 176.5 -47% RED .193 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 361.68 .31 362.66 -4.3% RED .167 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 167.82 -.56 168.6 .3% RED .188 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 27.77 .76 31.07 -718.1% RED .159 -.227
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 161 -3.82 174.7 -559.6% RED .16 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 141.97 -1.47 148.57 -215.2% RED .16 .185
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 5050.79 69.1 5003.55 105.7% BLUE .157 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 120.34 .29 121.11 -41.4% BLUE .144 -.053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% BLUE .159 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.18 .88 25.91 75.8% RED .143 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.48 1.39 21.68 668.7% ---- .141 .263
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.03 .98 32.8 101.8% BLUE .14 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.9 -.09 24.97 -14% ---- .139 .054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.11 .02 101.88 13.7% BLUE .132 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 27.77 .76 31.07 -718.1% RED .147 -.227
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.88 .44 20.28 125.1% BLUE -.034 .009
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180622
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 118 Bullish
NEWLOWS 34
MAXCP 69
MINCP 153 Professionals now are net bearish
TTTNH 76
TTTNL 275 Day Traders are net quite bearish.
FASTUP 123
FASTDOWN 137
CPCROSSA 86
CPCROSSD 99
BIGVOLUP 39
BIGVODN 126 Dumping is a growing problem for market makers.
ACCUMVER 27
HIGHIP21 133
HIUPPCT 153
VHIP21 29
LOWACCUM 325
REDSELL 102
AUGSELS7 21
TRAPDOOR 13
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180622
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 69 48 70 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
REIT 172 9 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
CHEM 71 3 4 %
ELECTRON 175 7 4 %
OILGAS 157 7 4 %
RETAIL 52 2 4 %
RUS-1000 819 29 4 %
SP-100 94 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 410 14 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
SP500 477 15 3 %
BIG17 48 1 2 %
CHINA 61 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 186 4 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 82 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
FINANCE 90 1 1 %
INDEXES 189 1 1 %
|
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180622
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 153 25 16 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
UTILITY 41 3 7 %
SOFTWARE 64 3 5 %
BIOTECH 410 15 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 61 2 3 %
MILITARY 37 1 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
ELECTRON 175 3 2 %
CHEM 71 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 186 1 1 %
INDEXES 189 1 1 %
OILGAS 157 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 12 1 %
SP500 477 4 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/22/18
Bullish = 35
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .936 .918 .918 .901 .912 .883
REGBANKS .87 .838 .838 .838 .838 .806
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
RETAIL .846 .865 .903 .865 .865 .846
NIFTY .833 .866 .866 .766 .8 .8
COAL .75 .875 .75 .75 .875 .875
EDU .714 .571 .714 .714 .714 .571
PIPELINE .714 .571 .714 .714 .714 .571
SOFTWARE .703 .75 .781 .781 .781 .796
BEVERAGE .7 .6 .65 .6 .55 .65
COMPUTER .695 .695 .782 .782 .782 .782
NASD-100 .685 .685 .764 .674 .719 .73
GAMING .678 .714 .714 .678 .678 .714
OILGAS .675 .573 .687 .643 .687 .643
GUNS .666 .666 .722 .666 .666 .666
RUS-1000 .648 .623 .684 .667 .686 .693
FINANCE .644 .611 .622 .6 .666 .611
BIOTECH .634 .612 .665 .614 .626 .646
SP500 .631 .607 .666 .643 .666 .685
SP-100 .627 .553 .638 .638 .648 .67
INDEXES .624 .582 .645 .645 .64 .64
FIDSTKS .618 .586 .666 .655 .672 .688
UTILITY .609 .56 .536 .512 .39 .341
HACKERS .608 .695 .695 .695 .695 .739
DOWJONES .6 .433 .6 .633 .666 .7
CHEM .591 .577 .591 .605 .647 .633
INFRA .588 .411 .558 .529 .676 .617
BONDFUND .585 .576 .495 .522 .405 .396
ELECTRON .582 .605 .628 .6 .64 .697
MILITARY .567 .513 .594 .54 .648 .648
INDMATER .56 .5 .536 .56 .609 .597
SEMI .554 .57 .617 .578 .625 .679
GREEN .533 .533 .566 .6 .633 .633
AUTO .525 .55 .6 .575 .625 .575
BIG17 .52 .583 .625 .583 .562 .604
N=35
==============================================================================================
TRANSP .5 .65 .75 .65 .75 .7
==============================================================================================
DJI-13 .461 .23 .461 .461 .538 .538
HOMEBLDG .411 .47 .47 .47 .47 .588
INSURANC .354 .29 .387 .483 .419 .419
GOLD .32 .28 .3 .3 .36 .42
COMODITY .303 .214 .25 .214 .303 .321
SOLAR .285 .333 .285 .285 .285 .333
CHINA .278 .262 .311 .295 .459 .442
JETS .2 .5 .6 .6 .7 .6
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
ETFS .131 .098 .131 .098 .196 .262
FOOD .111 .111 .111 .111 .222 .222
N= 11
|
====================================================================
6/21/2018
The operative Peerless signal remains
a Sell S9V. The DJI is now 1.7%
below its 21-dma. It is not quite as far below this moving average as it
was when the Sell S9-V was given. It is the deeply negative V-I (now
-91) that prevents a Buy B9 based on the positive breadth (P-I). In fact,
the DJI could fall 200-400 points lower tomorrow and given the same
breadth and volume we saw today, Peerless would still give no new Buy
signal. So, stay short DIA.
We still do not have breaks in the NYSE ADL or the Closing
Power uptrends for the NASDAQ, QQQ or IWM. So, with the DJI
down 8 straight days, a Friday rally would not be much of a surprise.
But history shows the techs and broader market represented by the
NYSE ADL are much more likely to falter unless the DJI can get a
Peerless Buy signal to help it turn around meaningfully...
The DJI has now fallen 8 straight days. Is this a
characteristic of
corrections or the start of bear market? Let's look at the most important
tops. The part of the study done tonight shows this can be a very
bearish development unless Professionals make a dramatic new move
to support prices as they did in 1929. This is a sign of danger not
opportunity at this juncture, I would have to say at this point. A one or
two day relief rally would probably not be significant.
Lengthy Down-Day Streaks and Market Tops
Each year's streaking behavior is different. In 1/3 of
the cases,
a streak of 5-8 days produces an oversold market condition and a good
intermediate-term rally follows. Examples of this occurred in May 1929
(7 straight down-days), June 1959 (7), May 1967 (6), Aug 1967 (5),
Oct-Nov 1968 (8), June 1972 (6), Sept 1986 (6), August 2007 (6),
Jan 2008 (5). N= 9
But a down streak of 5-8 days was soon followed by a serious decline in
more than twice as many cases: Aug 1937 (5), Aug 1941 (7,9 ),
Jun 1946 (5), July-August 1957 (5), Jan 1962 (5), Jan 1966 (5), May 1969 (5),
May 1971 (5), Sept 1971 (6), Jan 1973 (7), Oct. 1973 (8), Sept. 1976
(7),
March 1977 (8), Sept 1978 (7), Oct 1979 (5), June 1981 (8), Sept 1987 (5),
Aug 1990 (6), Jan 2000 (5), Oct 1987 (5) and Oct 2008 (8).
N=22
Three Cases Where Falling DJI
Eventually Leads Overall Market Sharply Lower.
When the DJI is leading the overall market lower, as it is now, there
is tendency for the DJI to drop 2% - 3.5% below its 21-dma and
then make a weak rally that quickly gives way. The key lesson here is
that once the NYSE A/D Line breaks its uptrendline, the overall market
seems to quickly give way and catches up with the DJI on the downside.
Watch the NYSE ADL Closely now.
Three Cases where DJI Leads ADL Lower.
1) December1976 and December 1977.
a. DJI fell to 2% lower band on Feb. 10th 1977 and got a Buy B17
and then rallied from 938 to 968, 2.6% over 21-dma and got a S9,
whereupon it quickly fell to new lows.
b. DJI fell to 2.7% lower band on April 5th 1977 and then rallied
from 916 to 948 and 1.4% upper band, and then fell to new lows.
There was no Buy or Sell signal here.
c. DJI fell to 899, 3.1% lower band on May 27th 1977 where it got a
B9 and B17. It then rallied to 929, 1.8% over the 21-dma and got
a Sell S9. It then fell for four months, all the while staying a little above
the falling 3.5% lower band.
2. The period from June to September 2001. In the
DJI and ADL chart below see how the DJI led the ADL down
from the end of August to 9/11. In July and August 2001, the
DJI could not close above the 0.7% upper band even though the
ADL was making new highs.
3. Second quarter of 2002. Very low interest rates helped hold up
bonds and some dividend-paying stocks which acted were acting
as a haven from the on-going bear market.
Charts 6/21/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/21/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/621/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/621/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/21/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 244.5 -1.96 250.74 -150.3% ---- RED .133 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7712.95 -68.56 7746.38 -31% Bullish RED .375 .08
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 274.24 -1.73 277.13 -81.1% Bullish RED .241 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 175.71 -1.54 176.98 -53.4% Bullish RED .311 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 361.37 -2.55 361.99 -34.2% Bullish RED .286 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 168.38 -1.59 167.81 18.4% Bullish RED .373 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.57 -.43 67.35 -66.9% Bearish ---- .099 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 47.75 .17 44.11 469.1% Bullish BLUE .148 .396
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 164.82 -6.42 180.24 -450.4% ---- RED .353 .119
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 143.44 -3.5 148.28 -211.7% Bullish RED .347 .233
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 112.61 -1.29 111.26 55% Bullish RED .276 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 120.05 -.21 121.34 -137.2% Bearish BLUE -.263 -.074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.3 -.56 25.79 -229.1% Bearish RED .007 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.09 -1.3 20.54 -61.3% Bullish RED .048 .157
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.05 -.25 32.37 -212.5% Bearish ---- -.181 -.037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.99 -.07 24.97 0% Bullish ---- -.024 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.09 .27 101.83 16.7% ---- BLUE -.037 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.4 .17 49.54 77.2% Bullish BLUE .076 -.004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.45 .07 6.57 -146.9% Bearish ---- -.089 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 27.01 -2.04 32.04 -909.2% ---- RED .187 -.249
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.44 -.09 20.37 -61.2% Bearish ---- -.056 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 185.46 -1.04 188.84 -141.9% ---- RED .12 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1157.66 -12.18 1152.26 23.8% Bullish RED .255 .124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.14 -.73 100.13 -13.9% ---- RED .065 .09
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1730.22 -19.86 1715.97 18.4% Bullish RED .335 .202
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 201.5 -.5 195.85 118.4% Bullish RED .28 .201
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 257.11 -5.2 265.26 -185.6% Bullish RED .228 .126
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 337.66 -5.03 357.88 -351.9% Bearish RED -.036 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 226.98 -.84 231.92 -144.6% Bearish BLUE -.004 -.113
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 200.31 1.23 200.54 16% Bullish BLUE .371 .148
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 139.53 -3.6 150.02 -460.9% Bearish RED -.126 -.06
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180621
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 121
NEWLOWS 94
MAXCP 61
MINCP 160 Professionals are net bearish.
TTTNH 78
TTTNL 263 Day Traders are net bearish,
FASTUP 99
FASTDOWN 126 Swing-traders are netbearish,
CPCROSSA 27
CPCROSSD 149 Bearish shift by Professionals.
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 9
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180621
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 61 41 67 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
RETAIL 53 7 13 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
NASD-100 89 5 6 %
REIT 172 9 5 %
UTILITY 41 2 5 %
BIG17 48 2 4 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 407 14 3 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
FIDSTKS 186 5 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
REGBANKS 31 1 3 %
RUS-1000 819 23 3 %
SP500 477 15 3 %
CHINA 61 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
SP-100 94 2 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
INDEXES 189 1 1 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180621
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 160 46 29 %
ETFS 61 11 18 %
INSURANC 31 5 16 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
CHINA 61 6 10 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
UTILITY 41 4 10 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SEMI 128 7 5 %
BIOTECH 407 15 4 %
COMODITY 56 2 4 %
ELECTRON 176 7 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
FIDSTKS 186 5 3 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
RUS-1000 819 24 3 %
SP-100 94 3 3 %
SP500 477 14 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
INDMATER 82 2 2 %
OILGAS 131 3 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
INDEXES 189 2 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/21/18
Bullish = 31
Bearish = 13
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .918 .918 .901 .912 .895 .877
COAL .875 .75 .75 .875 .875 .875
RETAIL .867 .905 .867 .867 .849 .83
NIFTY .862 .862 .758 .793 .793 .793
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
REGBANKS .838 .838 .838 .838 .806 .838
SOFTWARE .75 .781 .781 .781 .796 .781
GAMING .714 .714 .678 .678 .714 .678
COMPUTER .695 .782 .782 .782 .782 .782
HACKERS .695 .695 .695 .695 .739 .739
NASD-100 .685 .764 .674 .719 .741 .73
GUNS .666 .722 .666 .666 .666 .611
TRANSP .65 .75 .65 .75 .75 .7
RUS-1000 .623 .684 .667 .686 .692 .7
FINANCE .611 .622 .6 .666 .622 .644
BIOTECH .609 .663 .611 .624 .636 .643
SP500 .607 .666 .643 .666 .683 .687
ELECTRON .602 .625 .596 .636 .687 .693
BEVERAGE .6 .65 .6 .55 .6 .65
CHEM .596 .629 .629 .677 .661 .677
OILGAS .587 .687 .648 .687 .648 .725
FIDSTKS .586 .666 .655 .672 .688 .693
BIG17 .583 .625 .583 .583 .583 .583
INDEXES .582 .645 .645 .64 .645 .698
BONDFUND .576 .495 .522 .405 .396 .405
EDU .571 .714 .714 .714 .571 .714
PIPELINE .571 .714 .714 .714 .428 .571
SEMI .57 .617 .578 .625 .671 .679
UTILITY .56 .536 .512 .39 .341 .292
SP-100 .553 .638 .638 .648 .67 .68
AUTO .55 .6 .575 .625 .575 .55
GREEN .533 .566 .6 .633 .633 .7
N=31
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDMATER .5 .536 .56 .609 .597 .658
JETS .5 .6 .6 .7 .6 .5
MILITARY .5 .578 .526 .631 .631 .631
N=3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOMEBLDG .47 .47 .47 .47 .588 .588
DOWJONES .433 .6 .633 .666 .7 .733
INFRA .411 .558 .529 .676 .617 .764
SOLAR .333 .285 .285 .285 .333 .38
INSURANC .29 .387 .483 .419 .419 .419
GOLD .28 .3 .3 .36 .42 .64
CHINA .262 .311 .295 .459 .442 .475
DJI-13 .23 .461 .461 .538 .538 .615
COMODITY .214 .25 .214 .303 .321 .625
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
FOOD .111 .111 .111 .222 .222 .333
ETFS .098 .131 .098 .196 .262 .36
N=13
|
====================================================================
6/20/2018
The operative Peerless signal remains
a Sell S9V. Such a Sell signal
usually brings a DJI decline to the lower 2.5% band, at the least. Today the
DJI could not manage a rally after 6 straight down days. This must be
dismaying to the bulls. It suggests that the biggest investors, those who normally
favor the safest blue-chips now see notable problems ahead for the market.
Usually, as the DJI declines, so does the NASDAQ, QQQ and IWM.
But that has not been true of late. Apparently, the multi-national blue chips
in the DJI-30 are seen as much more vulnerable to Trump's accelerating
trade wars. But a big question now is can other corporations that
cater mostly to US markets escape the consequences of a trade war?
Chinese imports are cheap. Businesses and consumers will soon be paying 15%
or more for lots and lots of imported items. What makes the leading international
tech stocks like AAPL, which are such a big part of the NASDAQ and QQQ,
think that they will escape Chinese retaliation? Wishful thinking, I would suggest.
Tariffs on imports are inflationary and they create a lot of uncertainty.
And what will happen what if China increases its sales of more big chunks
of its US Treasury holdings? Surely, that will drive up interest rates, too,
probably
a lot more rapidly than the Fed is now talking about. So, for all these reasons,
we have to be concerned that the DJI-30 will lead the stock market, as whole
lower. As I've discussed, there is ample precedent for this.
But, at least, for now the NYSE A/D Line remains in an uptrend. Today, three
of the biggest NASDAQ stocks, AMZN, FB and NFLX jumped to new highs.
They are the NASDAQ's leaders. We also still see the Closing Power for
QQQ, IWM and IBB (biotechs) still rising. Apparently these other sectors are
enjoying the inflow of hot money coming out of the formerly strong DJI-30.
This can continue for a while. But when these other sectors finally do top out,
they will likely drop very rapidly.
Biotechs Are Favored Now.
I believe the most bullish action now is seen in
Biotechs. The Closing
Power of IBB and BBH are rising strongly. Traders see opportunities
here because it is believed that tariffs will play a much smaller role with
them.
I noted today that 80% of the NASDAQ's best 20 performers today
were in the biotech and biomedical field. And nearly all of these leaping
biotechs were over $5/share. This is not the work of wild speculators.
So, if you want to play the long side now, this is the group I would suggest
looking at. I posted charts tonight of a dozen, or so, biotechs showing
attractive Accumulation and chart patterns.
See them at http://www.tigersoft.com/BIO62018/BI0TECH.htm
Biotechs are of interest now because they topped out after the DJI in
2007 and in 2000. A number of them enjoyed very big advances
in the last six months of the long 1991-2000 bull market.
Charts 6/20/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/20/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/620/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/620/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/20/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
----------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
DIA 246.46 -.42 251.99 -114.3% Bearish RED .138 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7781.51 55.93 7761.04 55.5% Bullish BLUE .385 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 275.97 .47 278.73 -37.2% Bullish RED .245 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 177.25 1.25 177.6 40.5% Bullish BLUE .349 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 363.92 1.78 363.85 14.2% Bullish BLUE .271 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 169.97 1.36 167.76 92.3% Bullish BLUE .39 .098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67 .23 67.47 -97.8% Bearish RED .086 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 47.58 1.43 43.49 321.2% Bullish RED .25 .379
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 171.24 2.65 180.59 -178.9% Bullish RED .371 .164
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 146.94 1.11 149.7 4.1% Bullish ---- .348 .243
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 113.9 1.86 111.38 153.4% Bullish BLUE .307 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 120.26 -.54 123.38 -120.1% Bearish RED -.284 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.86 .06 26.49 -147.4% Bearish ---- -.009 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.39 1.18 22.36 56.9% ---- BLUE .015 .297
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.3 -.33 33.44 -249.7% Bearish RED -.218 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 25.06 .02 24.99 78.2% Bullish ---- -.004 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.82 -.32 101.75 19.2% ---- RED -.036 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.23 .04 49.63 121.9% Bullish ---- .069 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.38 .07 6.64 -328.1% Bearish ---- -.099 -.054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 29.05 -.43 32.62 -618% Bullish RED .288 -.185
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.53 .23 20.69 -75.6% Bearish ---- -.052 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.5 .81 190.8 -111.1% Bullish BLUE .138 .066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1169.84 1.78 1152.12 151.6% Bullish RED .253 .124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.87 1.01 101.42 50.6% Bullish BLUE .081 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1750.08 15.3 1723.86 131.4% Bullish BLUE .374 .208
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 202 4.51 196.81 244.4% Bullish BLUE .272 .214
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 262.31 2.14 266.91 -1.7% Bullish BLUE .255 .141
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 342.69 1.57 362.42 -297.2% Bearish RED -.074 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 227.82 -.5 233.65 -129.6% Bearish RED -.056 -.122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 199.08 -.13 199.67 -30.7% Bullish RED .308 .137
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 143.13 -.17 153.14 -386.1% Bearish RED -.117 -.044
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180620
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 320 Bullish
NEWLOWS 53
MAXCP 201 Pros are net bullish
MINCP 96
TTTNH 156
TTTNL 144
FASTUP 132 Swing traders are net bullish.
FASTDOWN 88
CPCROSSA 83
CPCROSSD 96 Pros may be switching to more bearish posture.
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180620
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 201 131 65 %
EDU 7 3 43 %
GREEN 30 5 17 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
HACKERS 23 3 13 %
RETAIL 53 7 13 %
SOFTWARE 64 8 13 %
INDEXES 191 22 12 %
FINANCE 90 10 11 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
BIOTECH 401 42 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
NASD-100 89 8 9 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
FIDSTKS 186 12 6 %
REGBANKS 31 2 6 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
REIT 172 8 5 %
RUS-1000 819 39 5 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
SP-100 94 4 4 %
SP500 477 19 4 %
OILGAS 131 4 3 %
CHINA 61 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180620
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 96 21 22 %
INSURANC 31 4 13 %
ETFS 61 4 7 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 61 2 3 %
ELECTRON 176 5 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
BIOTECH 401 9 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
INDEXES 191 3 2 %
SP-100 94 2 2 %
SP500 477 9 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 186 2 1 %
INDMATER 82 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 12 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/20/18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .918 .901 .912 .895 .872 .848
RETAIL .905 .867 .867 .849 .83 .849
NIFTY .862 .758 .793 .793 .793 .793
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
REGBANKS .838 .838 .838 .806 .838 .838
COMPUTER .782 .782 .782 .782 .782 .782
SOFTWARE .781 .781 .781 .796 .781 .781
NASD-100 .764 .674 .719 .741 .73 .707
COAL .75 .75 .875 .875 .875 .875
TRANSP .75 .65 .75 .75 .7 .7
GUNS .722 .666 .666 .666 .611 .611
EDU .714 .714 .714 .571 .714 .714
GAMING .714 .678 .678 .714 .678 .678
PIPELINE .714 .714 .714 .428 .571 .571
HACKERS .695 .695 .695 .739 .739 .739
OILGAS .687 .648 .687 .648 .725 .717
RUS-1000 .684 .667 .686 .692 .699 .675
FIDSTKS .666 .655 .672 .688 .693 .65
SP500 .666 .643 .666 .683 .687 .658
BIOTECH .663 .613 .625 .635 .643 .623
BEVERAGE .65 .6 .55 .6 .65 .65
INDEXES .643 .643 .638 .643 .696 .701
SP-100 .638 .638 .648 .67 .68 .68
CHEM .629 .629 .677 .661 .677 .693
ELECTRON .625 .596 .636 .687 .693 .67
FINANCE .622 .6 .666 .622 .633 .677
SEMI .617 .578 .625 .671 .679 .671
BIG17 .608 .565 .565 .586 .565 .565
AUTO .6 .575 .625 .575 .55 .55
DOWJONES .6 .633 .666 .7 .733 .7
JETS .6 .6 .7 .6 .5 .4
MILITARY .578 .526 .631 .631 .631 .631
GREEN .566 .6 .633 .633 .7 .666
INFRA .558 .529 .676 .617 .764 .764
INDMATER .536 .56 .609 .597 .658 .658
UTILITY .536 .512 .39 .341 .317 .195
N = 36
=============================================================================================
BONDFUND .495 .522 .405 .396 .396 .549
HOMEBLDG .47 .47 .47 .588 .588 .588
DJI-13 .461 .461 .538 .538 .615 .615
INSURANC .387 .483 .419 .419 .387 .451
CHINA .311 .295 .459 .442 .475 .442
GOLD .3 .3 .36 .42 .62 .56
SOLAR .285 .285 .285 .333 .38 .38
COMODITY .25 .214 .303 .321 .607 .642
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .285
ETFS .131 .098 .196 .262 .36 .393
FOOD .111 .111 .222 .222 .333 .333
N = 11
|
|
====================================================================
6/19/2018
The operative Peerless signal remains
a Sell S9V. But Professionals
clearly want and expect a rally. That is why the market repeatedly refuses to
drop much below a weak opening and then seems always bound to stage a
slow and steady recovery, especially in the tech sector and in the
Russell-2000 ETFs. That is why the Closing Powers for the NASDAQ,
QQQ and IWM remain in firm uptrends despite 6 straight days down
by the DJI. And that is why despite the DJI weakness, we see 37 of the 47
sectors we monitor now have more than 50% of their stocks still above their
65-dma and even the normally bearish Professional Day Traders are net bulish.
Want more proof that Professionals want a rally? The Dow Jones-30 Selection
Committee kicked out technically troubled General Electric and put much safer
Walgreen's in its place. We can't have a DJI-30 stock going
backupt! The past
additions and deletions to the DJI-30 teaches us that there should now be
considerable new index-fund buying of Walgreen and selling in GE. Watch and
see if this is not what now develops. I hope so since we are already short GE.
|
|
Professionals Clearly Want A Rally.
All the selling at the opening caused by Trump's Trade War has left
Professionals and market makers with a lot of stock they need to mark up
and unload. That, at least, is what I glean this from the market's behavior
this past week, notably the lower opening and then the grinding recoveries.
.
But, as I showed last night, Trump's trade war and the unusually heavy
NYSE Down Volume (as shown by the very negative V-I) will likely
weight down the blue chips, especially high-priced Boeing (-10% in last
week) and Caterpillar (-8%).as well as the big international banks. So,
I would stay short DIA even though it may now bounce
up a little from its
flat 65-dma.
There is a seasonal bounce just before July 4th. But, and this may surprise
some of you, since 1965 the DJI rises only
42.3% of the time over the
next month and averages a 0.9% decline over the next ten trading days.
|
|
QQQ and IWM are significantly out-performing DJI.
Until their Closing Power Uptrends are broken, that is
likely to continue.
What should we make of all the Bullish MAXCPs and the sturdy Closing
Power uptrends seen in IWM, the NASDAQ, QQQ and now IBB? Short-term
term traders can certainly play these on the long side as long as their Closing
Power uptrend-lines are not broken. They are all outperforming the DJI by
a wide margin. (See their ITRS numbers in Table 1). But if you do hold them,
watch for a much higher opening that gives way to a close below the previous
day's close. This will produce a bearish "red popsicle" on our
candle-stick
charts and is apt to cause a rapid sell-off as Professionals rush to take profits
in the sectors still favored by this aged bull market.
Charts 6/19/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/19/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/619/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/619/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/19/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
----------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 246.88 -2.85 252.18 -127.6% Bullish BLUE .172 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7725.58 -21.44 7695.7 14.1% Bullish BLUE .379 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 275.5 -1.06 278.03 -61.5% Bullish BLUE .276 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 176 -.5 175.82 4.8% Bullish BLUE .352 .086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 362.14 -.52 362.89 -41.3% Bullish BLUE .28 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 168.61 .01 166.87 32.2% Bullish BLUE .375 .09
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.77 -.75 68.32 -195.5% ---- BLUE .111 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 46.15 .46 44.7 -24.5% Bullish BLUE .195 .403
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 168.59 -6.11 177.55 -268.4% Bullish BLUE .36 .238
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 145.83 -2.74 146.82 -114.1% Bullish BLUE .369 .305
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 112.04 1.61 110.49 50.9% Bullish BLUE .219 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 120.8 -.31 123.19 -82.5% Bearish ---- -.235 -.077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.8 -.11 26.63 -182.4% Bearish BLUE -.006 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.21 .53 23.14 -216.4% Bullish BLUE .018 .364
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.63 -.17 33.95 -110% Bearish BLUE -.187 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 25.04 .07 24.67 66.4% Bullish ---- -.035 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.14 .26 101.43 29% Bullish ---- .022 -.038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.19 .49 49.02 105.2% Bullish BLUE .075 -.036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.31 -.12 6.81 -523% Bearish ---- -.133 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 29.48 -1.59 32.96 -772% Bullish BLUE .299 -.114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.3 .02 20.84 -119% Bearish BLUE -.032 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 185.69 -3.05 190.7 -173.2% ---- BLUE .122 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1168.06 -5.4 1134.79 124.9% Bullish BLUE .301 .12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.86 0 100.85 -22.3% Bullish BLUE .09 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1734.78 10.99 1704.86 105.1% Bullish BLUE .402 .204
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 197.49 -.82 192.41 130.4% Bullish BLUE .265 .221
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 260.17 -4.92 262.4 -45.6% Bullish RED .233 .178
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 341.12 -13.62 363.85 -407.6% Bearish RED -.004 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 228.32 -3.07 233.83 -92.6% Bearish BLUE -.062 -.124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 199.21 -1.48 200.31 -52.4% Bullish BLUE .322 .125
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 143.3 -5.38 154.71 -464.3% Bearish RED -.172 -.028
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180619
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 205 Bullish
NEWLOWS 66
MAXCP 213 Bullish
MINCP 68
TTTNH 150 Day Traders are bullish
TTTNL 95
FASTUP 101
FASTDOWN 106
CPCROSSA 156 Pros switching to bullish side.
CPCROSSD 45
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 12
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180619
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 213 93 44 %
EDU 7 3 43 %
HACKERS 23 3 13 %
SOFTWARE 64 7 11 %
GREEN 30 3 10 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
BIOTECH 401 33 8 %
BIG17 46 3 7 %
NASD-100 89 6 7 %
NIFTY 30 2 7 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
FIDSTKS 186 7 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REGBANKS 31 1 3 %
SP-100 94 3 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
INDEXES 191 4 2 %
REIT 172 3 2 %
RUS-1000 819 18 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SP500 477 11 2 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180619
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
FOOD 9 2 22 %
MINCP 68 14 21 %
ETFS 61 8 13 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
CHINA 61 3 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
ELECTRON 176 8 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
UTILITY 41 2 5 %
BIOTECH 401 15 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDEXES 191 5 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
FIDSTKS 186 3 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
INDMATER 82 2 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 7 1 %
SP-100 94 1 1 %
SP500 477 4 1 %
|
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180619
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
FOOD 9 2 22 %
MINCP 68 14 21 %
ETFS 61 8 13 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
CHINA 61 3 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
ELECTRON 176 8 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
UTILITY 41 2 5 %
BIOTECH 401 15 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDEXES 191 5 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
FIDSTKS 186 3 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
INDMATER 82 2 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 7 1 %
SP-100 94 1 1 %
SP500 477 4 1 %
|
|
|
====================================================================
6/18/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a
Sell S9V. The lower 2.5%
DJI band between 24300 and 24400 would seem to be our downside
target here given the probability of a Peerless Buy B9 there because the
P-Indicator and IP21 are both quite positive. But as I write this the
DJI is down 395 points over-night. Such action is authentically scary.
I see no reason to hurry to buy. Bloomberg news speaks openly of a
tumultous trade war. Investors worry about what will follow next given
Trump's favored tactics of double-downing and tough talk.
China Says the U.S. Has Lost Its Credit With
the World: Live
How to Trade a U.S.-China Trade War?
Investors Map Out Tactics
What Economists Say About Trump's New
China Trade Threats
When we look back and find all five earlier cases where the DJI declined to the
lower 2.0%-3.5% bands with a negative V-Indicator despite showing a very positive
P-Indicator and IP21, the DJI fell for, at least, another two weeks. This took place
even when Peerless gave what turned out to be a premature Buy signal. See Table A
just below.
Let's not be in a hurry to buy. Stay short DIA.
Table A Cases where DJI fell down to between 1.5% and 3.5% lower band
with P-I and IP21 quite positive, but VI very negative: 1929-2017
In all five cases, the DJI fell for at least two more weeks.
LA/MA V-I P-I IP21
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
19481103 182.5 .983 -10 67 .208
19481105 178.4 .961 -47 53.8 .157
19481108 178.2 .961 -52 51.1 .132
DJI fell to 171.2 on 11/30/48 and then rose to 181.3 on 1/7/49 (S12)
and then fell to 161.6 on 6/13/1949.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
19550929 468.7 .983 -152 67.3 .129
No B9 because of suddenness of decline and big gap down. DJI then
fell to 438.6 on 10/11/1955 (B5 and B17) and rallied beck to 490.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
20020906 8427.2 .967 -19 231.7 .152
20020909 8519.38 .979 -37 196.2 .131
No Buy B9. Head/shoulders in long bear market.
DJI next fell to 7286.27 on 10/9/02.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
20100813 10303.15 .985 -132 223 .154
20100816 10302.01 .984 -69 345.5 .225
20100819 10271.21 .979 -53 279 .162
20100820 10213.62 .974 -116 147.3 .143
Early B17 on 8/19/2010. DJI fell to 9985.81 bottom on 8/26/2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
20110921 11124.84 .983 -55 80.8 .134
No Buy B9/B17. DJI fell to a bottom of 10655.3 on 10/3/2011 (B8)
|
|
|
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/18/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
----------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 249.73 -1.01 253.3 -72.5% Bullish BLUE .142 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7747.02 .64 7703.79 56.5% Bullish BLUE .314 .076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 276.56 -.57 278.92 -35.9% Bullish BLUE .22 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 176.5 -.48 175.83 45.1% Bullish BLUE .279 .083
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 362.66 .67 365.14 -26.9% Bullish BLUE .223 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 168.6 .79 167.53 54.7% Bullish BLUE .318 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.52 .17 69.43 -149.1% Bearish BLUE .065 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 45.69 1.58 46.37 -30% Bullish BLUE .103 .342
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 174.7 -5.54 178.16 -21.6% Bullish RED .288 .293
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 148.57 .29 149.22 28.3% Bullish BLUE .303 .344
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.43 -.83 110.91 20.3% Bullish BLUE .182 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 121.11 -.23 122.82 -86.3% Bearish RED -.218 -.086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.91 .12 26.76 -205.4% Bearish BLUE -.047 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.68 1.14 23.17 -256.6% Bearish BLUE -.015 .317
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.8 .43 33.36 -117% Bearish BLUE -.293 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.97 0 24.71 62.5% Bullish ---- -.019 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.88 .05 101.55 13.3% Bullish RED .057 -.054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.7 .16 49.15 112.8% Bullish BLUE .057 -.059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.43 -.14 7.01 -266.1% Bearish RED -.11 -.043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.07 -.97 34.52 -527.8% Bullish BLUE .253 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.28 -.09 20.79 -135.2% Bearish BLUE -.077 -.138
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.74 -.1 192.28 -65.3% Bearish BLUE .058 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1173.46 21.2 1139.32 190.4% Bullish BLUE .281 .121
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.86 .73 101.31 -9.4% ---- BLUE .042 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1723.79 7.82 1698.75 101.6% Bullish BLUE .332 .182
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 198.31 2.46 192.4 174.7% Bullish BLUE .191 .217
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 265.09 -.17 262.58 84.8% Bullish BLUE .171 .193
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 354.74 -3.14 370.62 -221.8% ---- BLUE .067 .043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 231.39 -.53 232.63 -57.9% Bearish BLUE -.127 -.119
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 200.69 .15 201.31 26.2% Bullish BLUE .332 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 148.68 -1.34 157.49 -246.9% Bearish BLUE -.124 -.005
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180618
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 298
NEWLOWS 78
MAXCP 215
MINCP 79
TTTNH 172
TTTNL 138
FASTUP 129
FASTDOWN 107
CPCROSSA 169
CPCROSSD 55
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 6
ACCUMVER 17
HIGHIP21 104
HIUPPCT 179
VHIP21 27
LOWACCUM 324
REDSELL 129
AUGSELS7 27
TRAPDOOR 11
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180618
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 215 138 64 %
EDU 7 2 29 %
HACKERS 23 5 22 %
SOFTWARE 64 13 20 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
BIG17 46 6 13 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
NIFTY 30 4 13 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
NASD-100 89 8 9 %
BIOTECH 401 33 8 %
FIDSTKS 186 14 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
INDEXES 193 11 6 %
RETAIL 53 3 6 %
RUS-1000 819 48 6 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
SP500 477 22 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
REGBANKS 32 1 3 %
REIT 172 5 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
CHINA 61 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 4 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
INDMATER 82 1 1 %
SP-100 94 1 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180618
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 79 29 37 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
ETFS 61 6 10 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
GOLD 50 4 8 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
SEMI 128 6 5 %
UTILITY 41 2 5 %
BONDFUND 111 4 4 %
CHINA 61 2 3 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
BIOTECH 401 10 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 186 3 2 %
INDMATER 82 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
INDEXES 193 2 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
RUS-1000 819 7 1 %
SP500 477 3 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/18/18
Bulllish = 36
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .912 .895 .872 .848 .906 .906
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
RETAIL .867 .849 .83 .849 .886 .849
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
REGBANKS .843 .812 .843 .843 .875 .875
NIFTY .8 .8 .8 .8 .866 .833
COMPUTER .782 .782 .782 .739 .739 .695
SOFTWARE .781 .796 .781 .765 .812 .796
TRANSP .75 .75 .7 .6 .7 .8
NASD-100 .719 .741 .73 .707 .741 .696
EDU .714 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714
PIPELINE .714 .428 .571 .571 .571 .714
JETS .7 .6 .5 .4 .4 .7
HACKERS .695 .739 .739 .739 .739 .695
OILGAS .687 .648 .725 .717 .748 .755
RUS-1000 .686 .692 .699 .671 .719 .711
GAMING .678 .714 .678 .678 .714 .75
CHEM .677 .661 .677 .693 .709 .725
INFRA .676 .617 .764 .764 .794 .764
FIDSTKS .672 .688 .693 .65 .682 .677
DOWJONES .666 .666 .7 .7 .733 .7
FINANCE .666 .622 .633 .677 .688 .7
GUNS .666 .666 .611 .611 .666 .722
SP500 .666 .683 .687 .651 .71 .698
SP-100 .648 .67 .68 .68 .723 .702
INDEXES .647 .647 .699 .709 .725 .73
ELECTRON .636 .687 .693 .67 .659 .659
GREEN .633 .633 .7 .666 .6 .6
MILITARY .631 .631 .631 .631 .605 .631
AUTO .625 .575 .55 .55 .6 .625
BIOTECH .625 .635 .643 .618 .618 .588
SEMI .625 .671 .679 .671 .664 .671
INDMATER .609 .597 .658 .658 .707 .756
BIG17 .565 .586 .565 .565 .608 .478
BEVERAGE .55 .6 .65 .65 .65 .6
DJI-13 .538 .538 .615 .615 .615 .615
N=36
=============================================================================================
HOMEBLDG .47 .588 .588 .588 .764 .764
CHINA .459 .442 .475 .459 .508 .524
INSURANC .419 .419 .387 .451 .483 .483
BONDFUND .405 .396 .396 .54 .612 .693
UTILITY .39 .341 .317 .195 .219 .243
GOLD .36 .42 .62 .56 .54 .56
COMODITY .303 .321 .607 .642 .678 .642
SOLAR .285 .333 .38 .38 .333 .285
FOOD .222 .222 .333 .333 .444 .333
ETFS .196 .262 .36 .393 .426 .442
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .285 .285 .285
N=11
|
|
====================================================================
6/15/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a
Sell S9V. With the DJI
unable
to get past 25500 and the V-Indicator negative and worsening.
I believe the DJI will have to test its lower 2.5% band, near 24400.
It's not clear how much longer the tech stocks can remain in uptrends.
Friday's big selling clipped a number of them. But the NASDAQ's
Closing Power remains in a bullish uptrend, as does it does for QQQ and IWM.
As I discussed Friday morning, there is ample precedent for the DJI leading
the NASDAQ and the general market lower: 1976-1977, 2000, 2001.
2002 and 2008. Usually, it is when the NYSE ADL breaks its uptrend
or the DJI drops more than 10% below its highest close, that the real trouble
begins. With the bull market so advanced in years and the FED bluntly
telling us it plans to raise rates several more times this year, the next two
weeks will likely put the market on the defensive. But if the bears don't
break the DJI down to new lows, I would think that we will then see the
a decent Summer Rally prompted by another Peerless Buy B9 at the lower
band. So, stay short DIA.
I am waiting to see clear evidence that there will be a rally
in beaten-down
low priced stocks, especially in biotechs. Typically, low priced biotechs make
up half of the best performing NASDAQ stocks. But as a group, they do not
appear ready yet.
Charts 6/15/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/15/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/615/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/615/BEARISH.htm
|
|
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/15/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
----------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
DIA 250.74 -1.25 253.39 -50% Bullish BLUE .104 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7746.38 -14.66 7659.93 65.6% Bullish BLUE .264 .071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 277.13 -1.6 278.56 -19% Bullish BLUE .184 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 176.98 -.62 174.91 72.3% Bullish ---- .231 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 361.99 -1.86 364.62 -36.8% Bullish BLUE .201 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 167.81 .05 166.77 38.6% Bullish BLUE .292 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.35 -.12 69.56 -194.3% Bearish BLUE .037 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 44.11 .62 45.96 -43.3% Bullish BLUE .038 .252
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 180.24 -.35 175.47 97.3% Bullish BLUE .255 .23
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 148.28 -1.42 147.73 60.5% Bullish BLUE .251 .26
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 111.26 -.12 109.98 52% Bullish BLUE .164 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 121.34 -2.04 123.23 -67.8% ---- RED -.163 -.059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 25.79 -.7 27 -238.9% Bearish RED -.058 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.54 -1.82 22.83 -330.3% Bearish RED .041 .16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 32.37 -1.07 33.58 -212.6% Bearish RED -.393 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.97 -.02 24.66 66.7% Bullish ---- .018 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.83 .08 101.61 5.9% Bullish RED .051 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.54 -.09 48.59 86.7% ---- BLUE .019 -.049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.57 -.07 6.79 -212.5% Bearish ---- -.101 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.04 -.58 34.59 -417.3% Bearish BLUE .163 -.06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.37 -.32 20.84 -156% Bearish RED -.128 -.132
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.84 -1.96 191.23 -74.7% Bearish RED .02 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1152.26 .14 1129.99 138.2% Bullish BLUE .233 .097
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.13 -1.29 101.05 -74.1% ---- RED -.007 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1715.97 -7.89 1689.12 94.1% Bullish BLUE .297 .158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 195.85 -.96 191.54 175.4% Bullish BLUE .195 .205
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 265.26 -1.65 260.62 56.7% Bullish BLUE .13 .174
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 357.88 -4.54 370.94 -158.1% ---- RED .093 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 231.92 -1.73 234.09 -31.5% Bearish BLUE -.189 -.117
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 200.54 .87 199.64 55.3% Bullish BLUE .272 .096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 150.02 -3.12 156.3 -170.5% Bearish RED -.139 -.011
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180615
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 262 Bullish
NEWLOWS 49
MAXCP 150
MINCP 114
TTTNH 113
TTTNL 237 Day Traders are net bearish.
FASTUP 142
FASTDOWN 109
CPCROSSA 126 Pros turning more bearish.
CPCROSSD 63
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 40 Lots of dumping...
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180615
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 150 104 69 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
BEVERAGE 20 4 20 %
SOFTWARE 64 13 20 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
BIG17 46 6 13 %
HACKERS 23 3 13 %
NASD-100 89 10 11 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
BIOTECH 400 33 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
CHEM 71 5 7 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
RUS-1000 820 58 7 %
SP500 478 33 7 %
FIDSTKS 187 11 6 %
INDEXES 193 9 5 %
SEMI 128 6 5 %
SP-100 95 5 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 82 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
REIT 172 1 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180615
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 114 25 22 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
UTILITY 41 3 7 %
BONDFUND 111 6 5 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
SEMI 128 7 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
ELECTRON 176 7 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
BIOTECH 400 11 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDEXES 193 3 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
CHEM 71 1 1 %
INDMATER 82 1 1 %
RUS-1000 820 7 1 %
SP500 478 2 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/15/18
Bullish = 36
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .895 .872 .848 .906 .906 .906
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .857
RETAIL .849 .83 .849 .886 .849 .792
REGBANKS .812 .843 .843 .875 .875 .906
SOFTWARE .796 .781 .765 .812 .781 .734
NIFTY .793 .793 .793 .862 .793 .758
COMPUTER .782 .782 .739 .739 .695 .652
TRANSP .75 .7 .6 .7 .8 .65
NASD-100 .741 .73 .707 .741 .674 .662
HACKERS .739 .739 .739 .739 .695 .695
GAMING .714 .678 .678 .714 .75 .714
RUS-1000 .692 .7 .671 .719 .704 .692
FIDSTKS .689 .695 .652 .684 .679 .668
ELECTRON .687 .693 .67 .659 .653 .664
SP500 .684 .688 .652 .711 .688 .671
SP-100 .673 .684 .684 .726 .705 .726
SEMI .671 .679 .671 .664 .664 .656
DOWJONES .666 .7 .7 .733 .7 .733
GUNS .666 .611 .611 .666 .722 .722
INDEXES .652 .699 .709 .725 .73 .72
OILGAS .648 .725 .717 .748 .748 .748
BIOTECH .635 .642 .617 .617 .585 .622
CHEM .633 .647 .647 .676 .69 .704
GREEN .633 .7 .666 .6 .6 .6
MILITARY .631 .631 .631 .605 .631 .684
FINANCE .622 .633 .677 .688 .7 .733
INFRA .617 .764 .764 .794 .764 .735
BEVERAGE .6 .65 .65 .65 .6 .6
JETS .6 .5 .4 .4 .7 .5
INDMATER .597 .658 .658 .707 .756 .695
HOMEBLDG .588 .588 .588 .764 .764 .764
BIG17 .586 .565 .565 .608 .478 .565
AUTO .575 .55 .55 .6 .625 .575
EDU .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
DJI-13 .538 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615
N=36
============================================================================================
CHINA .451 .483 .467 .516 .532 .548
PIPELINE .428 .571 .571 .571 .714 .428
GOLD .42 .62 .56 .54 .56 .44
INSURANC .419 .387 .451 .483 .451 .516
BONDFUND .396 .396 .54 .612 .693 .702
UTILITY .341 .317 .195 .219 .243 .195
SOLAR .333 .38 .38 .333 .285 .38
COMODITY .321 .607 .642 .678 .625 .678
ETFS .262 .36 .393 .426 .442 .409
FOOD .222 .333 .333 .444 .333 .444
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 .428
N=11
|
====================================================================
6/14/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a
Sell S9V and the DJI
seems boxed in on the upside since any rally to 25500 will bring
another Sell S9-V because the V-Indicator is still quite negative.
With the DJI unable to rally up past 25500, I think we have to expect
another test of its lower 2.5% band, now at 24400. That is also
suggested by the DJI's IP21 having now fallen below its 21-day ma. This
shows big money selling into strength. We also see this now in DIA,
SPY, OEX and NYSE. In addition, Professionals are now becoming
noticeably more bearish. Note that in Table 1 the number of
MINCPs (CP new lows) was 20 more than the number of MAXCPs
(CP new highs).
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ and QQQ, led by the highest priced tech stocks,
are disregarding the growing weakness elsewhere in the market that is mainly
caused by the expectation that interest rates will be 0.5% or more higher by the
end of the year. Such temporary strength in the NASDAQ has ample precedent.
If we study the four cases below, we see the lag between the
DJI's earlier peak and the NASDAQ's later peak is getting smaller and
smaller. This is a warning now, I think, for us not to be fooled by the
NASDAQ rally. Stay short DIA, but do not go short the tech stocks
until the NYSE ADL uptrend is violated.
1) From January 1966 to December 1968, the DJI could not make
new highs, but the OTC more than doubled. . There was a fantastic
and wildly speculative bull market in smaller electronics stocks.
2) After the DJI peaked in September 1976 and started falling into
its 1977 bull market, the NASDAQ remained quite firm, only joining
the DJI in decline when the ADL uptrend was broken as the DJI fell
more than 10% from its highs in July 1977.
3) In the bull market of 1992-2000, the DJI peaked in early January 2000.
The NASDAQ and QQQ, however, did not peak until two months later.
The QQQ then utterly collapsed, quickly falling 50% in only a few months.
4) The DJI's top in October 2007 took place 21 days before the NASDAQ
reached its peak then.
5) The DJI peaked on January 29, 2018. That was eighteen weeks ago.
Can we trust the NASDAQ's strength since then? Not if the ADL uptrend
is broke, the QQQ's Closing Power uptrend is violated and the DJI falls
more than 10% down from its highs.
The performance-minded bulls are putting more and more of
their
money in fewer and fewer of QQQ's super stocks, notably
ADBE, AMZN, FB, FFIV, NFLX, NTAP, NVDA and VRSN,
all of which made new highs themselves.
|
|
Charts 6/14/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/14/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/614/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/614/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/14/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 251.99 -.19 253.27 -10.7% ---- RED .074 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7761.04 65.34 7645.51 82.1% Bullish BLUE .249 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 278.73 .7 278.19 24.4% Bullish RED .151 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 177.6 1.78 174.44 90.5% Bullish BLUE .221 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 363.85 .96 364.67 17% Bullish ---- .187 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 167.76 .89 166.52 52.2% Bullish BLUE .266 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.47 -.85 70.03 -136.3% Bearish RED .014 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 43.49 -1.21 44.5 21.1% Bullish RED .021 .242
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 180.59 3.04 176.78 -27.5% Bullish BLUE .252 .178
^^^^ ^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 149.7 2.88 146.49 102.1% Bullish BLUE .24 .274
^^^^ ^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 111.38 .89 110.11 73.5% Bullish BLUE .171 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.38 .19 123.01 21.1% ---- RED -.151 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.49 -.14 27.07 -196.3% Bearish RED -.013 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.36 -.78 22.04 -17.6% ---- RED .138 .344
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.44 -.51 33.8 -65.3% Bullish RED -.241 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.99 .32 24.64 73% Bullish BLUE .015 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.75 .32 101.71 -4.9% Bullish BLUE .051 -.049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.63 .61 48.69 94.2% Bearish BLUE -.064 -.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.64 -.17 6.86 -203.5% Bearish RED -.089 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.62 -.34 34.87 -441.7% Bearish RED .123 -.056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.69 -.15 21.02 -121.8% Bearish RED -.025 -.133
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 190.8 .1 191.7 -69.3% ---- RED .111 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1152.12 17.33 1120.87 125.1% Bullish BLUE .182 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.42 .57 101.63 26.7% ---- RED .13 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1723.86 19 1683.99 102.1% Bullish BLUE .3 .183
^^^^ ^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 196.81 4.4 189.1 226.2% Bullish BLUE .181 .23
^^^^ ^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 266.91 4.51 262.28 76.5% Bullish BLUE .142 .14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 362.42 -1.43 369.5 -82.9% ---- RED .075 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 233.65 -.18 233.39 4.3% Bearish RED -.232 -.114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 199.67 -.64 198.33 87.9% Bullish RED .215 .086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.14 -1.57 155.32 -100.9% Bearish RED -.147 .016
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180614
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 303 Bullish
NEWLOWS 62
MAXCP 123
MINCP 153 Professionals are bearish.
TTTNH 109
TTTNL 220 Swing Traders are bearish.
FASTUP 153
FASTDOWN 89
CPCROSSA 85
CPCROSSD 70
BIGVOLUP 6
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180614
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 123 94 76 %
HACKERS 23 9 39 %
SOFTWARE 64 22 34 %
COAL 8 2 25 %
NIFTY 29 7 24 %
NASD-100 89 16 18 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
BIG17 48 5 10 %
INDEXES 193 19 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
BIOTECH 397 30 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
SEMI 128 10 8 %
FIDSTKS 187 13 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
ELECTRON 176 10 6 %
RUS-1000 820 53 6 %
SP-100 95 6 6 %
SP500 478 28 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FINANCE 90 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
INDMATER 83 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
REIT 172 2 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180614
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 153 33 22 %
BONDFUND 111 9 8 %
ETFS 61 5 8 %
UTILITY 41 3 7 %
FINANCE 90 4 4 %
BIOTECH 397 10 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 4 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDEXES 193 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
RUS-1000 820 7 1 %
SP500 478 2 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/14/18
Bullish = 38
Bearish = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
REIT .872 .848 .906 .906 .912 .906
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .857 .571
REGBANKS .843 .843 .875 .875 .906 .906
RETAIL .83 .849 .886 .849 .792 .754
NIFTY .793 .793 .862 .793 .758 .793
COMPUTER .782 .739 .739 .695 .652 .652
SOFTWARE .781 .765 .812 .781 .734 .718
INFRA .764 .764 .794 .764 .735 .735
HACKERS .739 .739 .739 .695 .695 .695
NASD-100 .73 .707 .741 .674 .662 .651
OILGAS .725 .717 .748 .748 .74 .778
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
DOWJONES .7 .7 .733 .7 .7 .7
GREEN .7 .666 .6 .6 .6 .6
RUS-1000 .7 .671 .719 .704 .689 .671
TRANSP .7 .6 .7 .8 .65 .5
INDEXES .699 .709 .725 .73 .72 .699
FIDSTKS .695 .652 .684 .679 .657 .647
ELECTRON .693 .67 .659 .653 .664 .687
SP500 .688 .652 .711 .688 .667 .638
SP-100 .684 .684 .726 .705 .705 .684
SEMI .679 .671 .664 .664 .656 .671
GAMING .678 .678 .714 .75 .714 .75
CHEM .677 .693 .709 .725 .741 .725
INDMATER .662 .662 .71 .759 .698 .674
BEVERAGE .65 .65 .65 .6 .6 .5
BIOTECH .639 .614 .614 .581 .614 .619
FINANCE .633 .677 .688 .7 .722 .688
MILITARY .631 .631 .605 .631 .684 .631
GOLD .62 .56 .54 .56 .46 .48
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615
GUNS .611 .611 .666 .722 .722 .722
COMODITY .607 .642 .678 .625 .66 .642
HOMEBLDG .588 .588 .764 .764 .764 .588
BIG17 .583 .583 .625 .5 .562 .562
PIPELINE .571 .571 .571 .714 .428 .428
AUTO .55 .55 .6 .625 .575 .575
N= 38
===========================================================================================
JETS .5 .4 .4 .7 .5 .3
===========================================================================================
CHINA .483 .467 .516 .532 .532 .58
BONDFUND .396 .54 .612 .693 .675 .738
INSURANC .387 .451 .483 .451 .516 .387
SOLAR .38 .38 .333 .285 .38 .38
ETFS .36 .393 .426 .442 .393 .377
FOOD .333 .333 .444 .333 .444 .444
UTILITY .317 .195 .219 .243 .195 .219
BIGBANKS .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285
N=8
|
====================================================================
6/13/2018 The operative Peerless signal
remains a Sell S9V. The Fed did
raise rates, presumably they were influenced by the 12-mo rate of inflation
reaching 2.8% and the belief that the economy was strong enough
to withstand a return to more normal rates in the course of the
coming year. The yield on the ten year bonds, now 2.91%, did
not breach the 3% level that many say is an important number to
watch. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y
But the
reality of higher interest rates did weaken the broader market. There
were almost twice as many decliners as advancers today on the NYSE.
The 1950s offer the prime example of what it takes in the way of
interest rate rises above 3% to stop a long bull market. In April 1956,
when rates on the ten-year bonds went above 3%, the DJI quickly
fell 10%. In July 1957, these rates hit 3.93% and the DJI then fell 20%.
(See the raw data at http://www.forecast-chart.com/rate-treasury-10.html
)
1956
|
1957
|
Retailers, who
had been leading the current rally, took a big hit today.
I susepct that they are concerned about the negative impact of higher
interest rates on consumers. The big bankers at Citibank and JP Morgan
are keenly aware of problems that lay ahead for consumers who are already
tapped out with more than a 1 trillion dollars in personal debt. Americans
now have more credit card debt than in 2007. This is particularly troubling
now because the Federal Government faces its own big debt problems.
Keynesian deficit-spending on Public Works will be a very hard sell
politically if there is a recession. The picture is made grimmer by the
failure of wage increases to rise much faster than inflation for many years.
And now, debt delinquencies are on the rise despite the 3.8% Unemployment.
All this makes quite dangerous the higher credit card payments that will
result from the higher interest rates.
In 1929, the booming stock market far outpaced consumers ability to
buy what was being produced. Over-production and hyper-speculation
led to a Crash. Tariffs, tight money and Bank failures turned the Crash
into a terrible Depression. We have to ask: Is our stock market now
one
big bubble? There's no denying that market's long rise since 2009 has
caused stock prices in blue chips and big tech stocks to far out-pace
the real growth in the manufacturing and non-financial services' sectors.
So, definitely stay short DIA and some of the bearish MINCPs. It's not
clear how much longer the tax cuts and de-regulation can continue to lift
stocks. But most stocks are above their 65-dma support and certainly
above their longer-term 200-day moving averages. So, sidewise action
rather than a deep sell-off seems more likely for now. A month of
consolidation could be constructive if the P-I and Accumulation Index
for the DJI remain positive. A Summer rally in July and August may
still play out. But first, expect the NASDAQ and leading tech stocks to
pull back to their rising 65-dma if their Closing Power uptrends are violated.
|
|
|
Charts 6/13/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/13/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/613/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/613/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/13/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 252.18 -1.12 252.53 13.1% Bullish RED .106 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7695.7 -8.09 7635.07 4.2% Bullish RED .287 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 278.03 -.89 277.37 11.3% Bullish RED .169 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 175.82 -.01 174.43 -1.1% Bullish RED .196 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 362.89 -2.25 362.61 5.8% Bullish RED .166 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 166.87 -.66 166.02 -1.8% Bullish RED .247 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.32 -1.11 69.36 -94.8% Bearish RED .043 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 44.7 -1.67 43.3 251.6% Bullish RED .073 .38
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 177.55 -.61 181.57 -249.6% Bullish RED .245 .193
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 146.82 -2.4 146.69 -133.3% Bullish RED .244 .291
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.49 -.42 109.76 -1.4% Bullish RED .15 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.19 .37 122.86 11% Bullish BLUE -.099 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.63 -.13 27.55 -68.3% Bearish ---- .036 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.14 -.03 22.44 463.9% Bullish ---- .19 .371
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.95 .59 33.88 108.7% Bullish BLUE -.195 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.67 -.04 24.63 -2% ---- ---- -.13 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.43 -.12 101.85 .5% Bullish RED .006 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.02 -.13 48.71 66.7% Bearish RED -.108 -.076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.81 -.2 6.92 -43.5% Bearish RED -.033 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.96 -1.56 35.67 -460.6% Bearish RED .153 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.84 .05 21.2 -156.6% Bearish RED -.005 -.129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 190.7 -1.58 193.46 -85.2% Bullish RED .137 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1134.79 -4.53 1123.86 -9.2% Bullish RED .142 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.85 -.46 100.88 -80.8% Bullish RED .156 .074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1704.86 6.11 1689.3 26.9% Bullish BLUE .248 .175
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 192.41 .01 188.18 28.1% Bullish RED .141 .182
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 262.4 -.18 262.9 -52.3% Bullish RED .097 .114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 363.85 -6.77 368.53 -104.1% ---- RED .088 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 233.83 1.2 233.45 34.3% Bearish BLUE -.234 -.117
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 200.31 -1 196.17 169.9% Bullish RED .204 .103
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 154.71 -2.78 156.29 -57.6% Bearish RED -.12 .016
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180613
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 212 Bullish
NEWLOWS 47
MAXCP 99
MINCP 115 Bearish switch by Professionals
TTTNH 115
TTTNL 163 Bearish switch by Day Traders.
FASTUP 116
FASTDOWN 87
CPCROSSA 36
CPCROSSD 143 Bearish switch by Professionals
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 12 Bearish Dumping.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180613
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 99 71 72 %
HACKERS 23 6 26 %
SOFTWARE 64 16 25 %
NIFTY 29 5 17 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
NASD-100 89 9 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
BIOTECH 393 26 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
RETAIL 53 3 6 %
FIDSTKS 187 9 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
RUS-1000 820 45 5 %
SEMI 128 7 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
SP500 478 23 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
INDEXES 195 8 4 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
SP-100 95 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
REIT 172 2 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180613
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------
MINCP 115 23 20 %
BONDFUND 111 4 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
BIOTECH 393 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 187 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
RUS-1000 820 6 1 %
SP500 478 3 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/13/18
Bullish = 39
Bearish = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .857 .571 .714
RETAIL .849 .886 .849 .792 .735 .773
REIT .848 .906 .906 .912 .912 .918
REGBANKS .843 .875 .875 .906 .875 .906
NIFTY .793 .862 .793 .758 .793 .793
SOFTWARE .765 .812 .781 .734 .734 .765
INFRA .764 .794 .764 .735 .735 .735
COMPUTER .739 .739 .695 .652 .652 .739
HACKERS .739 .739 .695 .695 .695 .739
OILGAS .717 .748 .748 .74 .778 .755
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
NASD-100 .707 .741 .674 .662 .64 .662
DOWJONES .7 .733 .7 .7 .7 .7
INDEXES .697 .717 .723 .712 .692 .697
CHEM .693 .709 .725 .741 .725 .709
SP-100 .684 .726 .705 .705 .684 .684
GAMING .678 .714 .75 .714 .75 .75
FINANCE .677 .688 .7 .722 .688 .688
RUS-1000 .671 .719 .704 .689 .67 .651
SEMI .671 .664 .664 .656 .671 .703
ELECTRON .67 .659 .653 .664 .687 .676
GREEN .666 .6 .6 .6 .6 .7
INDMATER .662 .71 .759 .698 .674 .698
FIDSTKS .652 .684 .679 .657 .647 .614
SP500 .652 .711 .688 .667 .635 .617
BEVERAGE .65 .65 .6 .6 .5 .5
COMODITY .636 .672 .618 .654 .636 .69
MILITARY .631 .605 .631 .684 .631 .552
BIOTECH .615 .615 .582 .615 .613 .641
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615
GUNS .611 .666 .722 .722 .722 .722
TRANSP .6 .7 .8 .65 .5 .6
HOMEBLDG .588 .764 .764 .764 .588 .588
PIPELINE .571 .571 .714 .428 .428 .428
BIG17 .565 .608 .478 .565 .543 .543
GOLD .56 .54 .56 .46 .48 .5
AUTO .55 .6 .625 .575 .575 .6
BONDFUND .54 .612 .693 .675 .72 .666
N = 39
============================================================================================
CHINA .467 .516 .532 .532 .58 .58
INSURANC .451 .483 .451 .516 .387 .387
JETS .4 .4 .7 .5 .3 .5
ETFS .393 .426 .442 .393 .377 .442
SOLAR .38 .333 .285 .38 .38 .428
FOOD .333 .444 .333 .444 .444 .444
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .285
UTILITY .195 .219 .243 .195 .219 .195
N = 8
|
====================================================================
6/12/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains a
Sell S9V. But the NYSE A/D Line
made another new high today. We can take some comfort in the fact
that the majority of significant market tops do usually occur when the
ADL is lagging the DJI. But only some comfort. The case of 2011 shows
us that a significant June DJI top (17% decline) can occur when the ADL
is actually making a new high. Moreover, in most of the cases where the ADL
was running ahead of the DJI, once the ADL uptrend was violated, the rest
of the market quickly turned down, falling sharply to get back in step with
the DJI. So, we have to recognize the bearishness of the V-Indicator
remaining negative as the DJI approaches the 2.4% upper band. Tomorrow
the FED may choose to raise short-term rates. That could push the yield
on ten-year bonds above 3%. It remains to be seen how the stock market
will react to that. And even if there is no rate hike this week, the DJI
could on a +.6% rally produce another Sell S9-V. The DJI is now 1.8%
over the 21-day ma and the V-I is -27.
The DJI continues to be weaker than the NASDAQ, QQQ, IWM,
RETL and TECL, which still enjoy rising Closing Powers and
5-day moving averages. The blue chips in the DJI are weaker,
I would suggest, partly because the earlier big rise in some of these
stocks is seen to have anticipated a lot of the bullish earnings now
but even more because tech growth stocks are seen as better ways
to invest than staid and conservative blue chips in the expected,
coming Inflation.
We got a taste of that growing inflation today when the the Labor Department
reported the May CPI was 2.8% higher than a year ago. This is a 6-year high.
And if oil prices resume their uptrend, as I would suggest their chart suggests
is likely, this monthly CPI number will go above well above 3% later this year.
So, sooner or later, if not tomorrow, we have to expect the FED to move
interest rates considerably higher. With short-term rates still below 2% and
ten year bonds yielding little more than the rate of Inflation, stocks can
easily still compete with bonds. But Bond yields surely must rise because
their investors are going to refuse to buy ten-year bonds whose yield is
so close to the current annual rate of inflation, which is itself in an uptrend..
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/u-s-inflation-at-six-year-high-eating-away-at-wage-increases
DBO shows a very high level of underlying Accumulation
and Closing Power bullish divergence Buy B7s. A move
back to its recent highs must be expected. This should
give a lift to the entire OIL sector.
Charts 6/12/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/12/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/612/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/612/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/12/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 253.3 -.09 251.52 102.3% Bullish RED .123 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7703.79 43.86 7689.24 43.1% Bullish BLUE .242 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 278.92 .36 277.4 68.9% Bullish RED .202 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 175.83 .92 175.86 28.3% Bullish BLUE .214 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 365.14 .52 362.47 77.9% Bullish BLUE .183 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 167.53 .76 166.93 54.1% Bullish BLUE .251 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 69.43 -.13 69.64 205% Bearish RED .077 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 46.37 .41 42.46 524% Bullish BLUE .196 .464
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 178.16 2.69 186.52 -133.7% Bullish BLUE .233 .246
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 149.22 1.49 150.77 33.5% Bullish BLUE .255 .329
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.91 .93 110.52 79.6% Bullish BLUE .183 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.82 -.41 122.92 -1.2% Bearish RED -.155 -.108
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 -.011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.76 -.24 27 -12.9% Bearish RED .035 .076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.17 .34 21.07 547.4% Bullish BLUE .214 .421
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.36 -.22 33.22 -34.2% ---- RED -.166 -.012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.71 .05 24.68 -8.1% ---- ---- -.07 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.55 -.06 101.42 -13.8% Bullish BLUE -.04 -.088
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.15 .56 48.37 -41% Bearish BLUE -.088 -.092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 7.01 .22 6.87 197.5% Bearish BLUE -.027 .067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.52 -.07 36.2 -34.1% Bullish RED .143 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.79 -.05 21.5 -146.3% Bearish ---- -.023 -.148
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 192.28 1.05 193.98 -26.7% Bullish BLUE .145 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1139.32 9.33 1136.88 -1.5% Bullish BLUE .141 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.31 .26 102.49 -43.3% Bullish BLUE .197 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1698.75 9.63 1695.75 7.1% Bullish BLUE .239 .166
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 192.4 .86 191.34 -14.2% Bullish BLUE .147 .166
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 262.58 1.96 265.15 -47.3% Bullish BLUE .094 .115
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 370.62 -.32 371.56 142.9% Bullish RED .111 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 232.63 -1.46 232.23 92.3% Bearish RED -.218 -.132
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 201.31 1.67 193.59 239.1% Bullish BLUE .242 .092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 157.49 1.19 156.51 144.1% ---- BLUE -.077 .022
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180612
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 345 Bullish
NEWLOWS 31
MAXCP 144 Professionals net bullish > 2:1
MINCP 64
TTTNH 153
TTTNL 124
FASTUP 155 Swing Traders 2:1 bullish
FASTDOWN 78
CPCROSSA 77
CPCROSSD 77
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 9
ACCUMVER 18
HIGHIP21 65
HIUPPCT 187
VHIP21 31
LOWACCUM 350
REDSELL 134
AUGSELS7 25
TRAPDOOR 11
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180612
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 144 102 71 %
HACKERS 23 6 26 %
SOFTWARE 64 16 25 %
RETAIL 53 12 23 %
COMPUTER 23 5 22 %
NIFTY 29 6 21 %
TRANSP 20 4 20 %
NASD-100 89 14 16 %
BIG17 48 7 15 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
COAL 8 1 13 %
INDEXES 194 24 12 %
RUS-1000 821 87 11 %
SP500 479 51 11 %
BIOTECH 390 30 8 %
FIDSTKS 187 15 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
SP-100 96 7 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
INDMATER 84 3 4 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REIT 172 5 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
MINCP 64 1 2 %
FINANCE 90 1 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180612
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MINCP 64 10 16 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 23 1 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
BIOTECH 390 9 2 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
UTILITY 41 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
INDMATER 84 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
RUS-1000 821 3 0 %
SP500 479 1 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/12/18
Bullish = 40
Bearish = 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .906 .906 .912 .912 .912 .924
RETAIL .886 .849 .792 .735 .773 .735
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
REGBANKS .875 .875 .906 .875 .906 .75
NIFTY .862 .793 .758 .793 .793 .758
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .857 .571 .714 .714
SOFTWARE .812 .781 .734 .734 .765 .765
INFRA .794 .764 .735 .735 .705 .735
HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .764 .588 .588 .529
OILGAS .748 .748 .74 .778 .763 .732
NASD-100 .741 .674 .662 .64 .662 .651
COMPUTER .739 .695 .652 .652 .739 .695
HACKERS .739 .695 .695 .695 .739 .695
DOWJONES .733 .7 .7 .7 .7 .533
SP-100 .729 .708 .708 .687 .687 .583
RUS-1000 .719 .705 .689 .671 .65 .611
INDEXES .716 .726 .716 .695 .695 .628
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .714 .75 .714 .75 .75 .714
INDMATER .714 .761 .702 .678 .69 .678
SP500 .711 .688 .668 .636 .615 .567
CHEM .709 .725 .741 .725 .709 .645
TRANSP .7 .8 .65 .5 .6 .6
FINANCE .688 .7 .722 .688 .688 .622
FIDSTKS .684 .679 .657 .647 .614 .54
COMODITY .672 .618 .654 .636 .69 .563
GUNS .666 .722 .722 .722 .666 .722
SEMI .664 .664 .656 .671 .703 .703
ELECTRON .659 .653 .664 .687 .676 .67
BEVERAGE .65 .6 .6 .5 .45 .45
BIG17 .625 .5 .583 .562 .541 .562
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .615 .615 .538
BIOTECH .612 .576 .607 .605 .63 .612
BONDFUND .612 .693 .675 .72 .666 .747
MILITARY .605 .631 .684 .631 .552 .552
AUTO .6 .625 .575 .575 .6 .55
GREEN .6 .6 .6 .6 .7 .633
PIPELINE .571 .714 .428 .428 .428 .428
GOLD .54 .56 .46 .48 .5 .5
CHINA .516 .532 .532 .58 .58 .564
N=40
============================================================================================
INSURANC .483 .451 .516 .387 .387 .322
FOOD .444 .333 .444 .444 .444 .333
ETFS .426 .442 .393 .377 .442 .377
JETS .4 .7 .5 .3 .5 .4
SOLAR .333 .285 .38 .38 .428 .476
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .285 .285 .142
UTILITY .219 .243 .195 .219 .219 .317
N= 7
|
====================================================================
6/11/2018 The operative Peerless signal is a Sell
S9V even though almost all of our internal strength
indicators are still rising. The DJI continues to lag most other ETFs and it keeps
falling back
on rallies to its 2.3% upper band. Without more Up Volume, it will be hard for it to
quickly eat up the overhead resistance. And a negative V-Indicator makes it very
hard
to get a Peerless Buy B4 or a Buy B10, the two main signals that can send the DJI up
later in the Summer.
With the V-I negative, we should stay short DIA in my view. But other sectors like
RETL and TECL are much stronger. Short-traders may still want to play them on the
long side, but I suggest doing this only for as long as we see rising trends in their
Closing
Powers and also rising trends in the NYSE ADL trend and the Peerless P-I and IP21
(Accumulation).
Sometimes, we get valuable clues about where the market is going by looking
at the leveraged general market ETFs. Thus is may be significant now that
TQQQ has reached resistance and looks vulnerable to a Closing Power
uptrend-break, especially since it shows purple NC down arrows and its
IP21-Accumulation is weakening noticeably.
I take the strongest sectors to be RETL. At least, that is what we can
glean
from Table 1, where we can find the ETFs with the highest IP21and ITRS
(Relative Strength) readings. Traders should watch all the key ETFs' closing prices
this week to be sure that they are remaining above their posted 5-day ma pivot-points.
When they drop below the pivot-points, the 5-day ma will then be turning down.
Traders should also note if their steep Closing Power uptrends are clearly violated.
Such violations will take place, I reckon, if the key ETFs close more than 1% below
the
openings this week. This could occur if traders decide to take profits on the news
of success at the Singapore talks, if the Government's CPI number spikes up to 3%
tomorrow or if the FED does raise interest rates at the FOMC meeting this week.
RETL is moving up very quickly.
But now it has reached its most likely resistance.
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/11/18
ETF
CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT
5-dma AROC CL-PWR TREND CANDLE
IP21
ITRS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA
253.39 + .12 248.15
103.5% Bullish
RED .131 -----
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7659.93 14.42 7637.86
35%
Bullish
BLUE .233 .035
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 278.56
.37
275.1 66.2%
Bullish
BLUE .215 .009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 174.91
.47 174.84
17.5% Bullish
BLUE .201 .043
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 364.62
-.05 359.49
82.4% Bullish
RED .174 .017
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 166.77
.25 165.73
62.1% Bullish
BLUE .257 .049
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS
69.56 -.47
66.6 182.4% Bearish
RED .069 .032
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL
45.96 1.46
41.8 737.8% Bullish
BLUE .232 .357 Strong
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 175.47 -1.31 182.99
-140.9%
Bullish
RED .166 .099
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 147.73
1.24 148.23
46%
Bullish
BLUE .216 .242 Strong
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL
22.83 .79
20.78
488% Bullish
BLUE .2
.265 Strong |
Hopes that Korea will be ne-nuclearized by virtue of Trump's stick and carrot strategy
seem excellent. A more popular Trump is exactly what Wall Street wants. But a positive
outcome in the Singapore meeting should have been anticipated by actions taken before
the meeting by North Korea to show that they were serious about rapidly de-escalating
their nuclear threat. So profit-taking on the news must be expected.
A second positive now would be if the FED does not raise rates at the FOMB meeting
this week. Watch the report tomorrow morning about Inflation. The strength of
the Dollar
and many financials recently would seem to suggest the FED may well hesitate about a rate
hike
this month. That view lies behind a good deal of the buying of stocks now,
especially
in the Retail sector.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/08/fed-has-surprise-that-could-mean-early-end-to-interest-rate-hikes.html
Charts 6/11/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/11/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/611/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/611/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180611
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 267 Bullish
NEWLOWS 28
MAXCP 131 Pros still net bullish
MINCP 90
TTTNH 136 Day Traders are still playing long side.
TTTNL 95
FASTUP 176 Swing Traders are still bullish
FASTDOWN 71
CPCROSSA 84
CPCROSSD 85
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 12
|
Table 3Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180611
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 131 78 60 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
RETAIL 53 11 21 %
TRANSP 20 4 20 %
SOFTWARE 64 10 16 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
HACKERS 23 3 13 %
MILITARY 38 4 11 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
CHEM 62 6 10 %
NASD-100 89 9 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
INDEXES 195 16 8 %
RUS-1000 821 64 8 %
SP500 479 36 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
BIOTECH 387 25 6 %
FIDSTKS 187 11 6 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
ELECTRON 176 8 5 %
INDMATER 84 3 4 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
REGBANKS 32 1 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
OILGAS 131 3 2 %
FINANCE 90 1 1 %
REIT 172 2 1 %
|
Table 4Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180611
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MINCP 90 20 22 %
UTILITY 41 7 17 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
BIOTECH 387 9 2 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
SP500 479 8 2 %
FIDSTKS 187 1 1 %
RUS-1000 821 9 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/11/18
Bullish = 40
Bearish = 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .906 .912 .912 .912 .924 .941
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
REGBANKS .875 .906 .875 .906 .718 .75
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .571 .714 .714 .714
RETAIL .849 .792 .735 .773 .735 .66
TRANSP .8 .65 .5 .6 .6 .6
NIFTY .793 .758 .793 .793 .758 .758
SOFTWARE .781 .734 .734 .765 .75 .75
HOMEBLDG .764 .764 .588 .588 .529 .47
INFRA .764 .735 .735 .705 .735 .705
INDMATER .761 .702 .678 .69 .69 .63
GAMING .75 .714 .75 .75 .714 .714
OILGAS .748 .74 .778 .763 .732 .74
CHEM .725 .741 .725 .709 .661 .612
INDEXES .723 .712 .692 .692 .625 .615
GUNS .722 .722 .722 .666 .722 .722
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
PIPELINE .714 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
SP-100 .708 .708 .687 .687 .562 .572
RUS-1000 .705 .689 .671 .65 .607 .6
DOWJONES .7 .7 .7 .7 .533 .566
FINANCE .7 .722 .688 .688 .611 .6
JETS .7 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4
COMPUTER .695 .652 .652 .739 .695 .652
HACKERS .695 .695 .695 .739 .695 .695
BONDFUND .693 .675 .72 .666 .738 .711
SP500 .688 .668 .636 .615 .561 .555
FIDSTKS .679 .657 .647 .614 .534 .55
NASD-100 .674 .662 .64 .662 .64 .617
SEMI .664 .656 .671 .703 .703 .671
ELECTRON .653 .664 .687 .676 .664 .636
MILITARY .631 .684 .631 .552 .552 .552
AUTO .625 .575 .575 .6 .55 .475
COMODITY .618 .654 .636 .69 .563 .6
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .615 .538 .538
BEVERAGE .6 .6 .5 .45 .45 .55
GREEN .6 .6 .6 .7 .633 .633
BIOTECH .581 .612 .609 .635 .617 .594
GOLD .56 .46 .48 .5 .5 .46
CHINA .532 .532 .58 .58 .564 .564
N=40
===========================================================================================
BIG17 .478 .565 .543 .543 .521 .543
INSURANC .451 .516 .387 .387 .322 .29
ETFS .442 .393 .377 .442 .377 .409
FOOD .333 .444 .444 .444 .333 .222
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .285 .142 .142
SOLAR .285 .38 .38 .428 .476 .476
UTILITY .243 .195 .219 .219 .317 .317
N=7
|
|
|
====================================================================
6/8/2018 The operative Peerless signal is a Sell
S9V. The NASDAQ appears vulnerable
to some profit-taking. It is at the top of its price channel. But if there is
no
pullback in the next two weeks, the odds will favor a DJI price breakout like
those that occurred in late June 1929 and late June 1987. Such a Summer advance will
most likely bring a new Peerless Buy B4 and a big up-swing in the P-I and IP21
Indicators, along with the V-I turning positive. Right now, Peerless would seem
to have the DJI boxed in. A new Sell S9-V is likely if the DJI closes 130 points
higher, since the V-I remains negative.
The DJI needs only close +.5% higher to bring a new S9-V.
But watch Boeing's ( BA) shares. It is on the verge of a price breakout. As the
highest priced stock in the DJI, it has the most weight in the average by far.
There are only a few "toppy"-looking and vulnerable DJI-30 stocks at this
time, in my judgement, AXP, CSCO, GS and JPM (at falling 65-dma). if
a big decline was just ahead, I think we would see more top patterns.
Watch also IWM and the NASDAQ (below) to see if they can regain their advantage
over the DJI. If their relative strength sags, it will show a narrowing market and
make
a new leg up by the DJI less likely. On the other hand, a resumption of their uptrends,
would be bullish and get me to advise traders to buy IWM again.
Also watch the Closing Power uptrend for IWM, TECL and QQQ. A bad down-day
after a strong opening on Monday would probably break these key ETFs' CP uptrends
and bring new bearish "red popsicles" on our candle-stick charts.
Since they have made
new highs without the benefit of Closing Power confirmations, a rupture of the CP uptrends
would be bearish. It would suggest that we may start seeing a pattern of up openings
followed by weak (and disheartening) closings.
At this stage, I would stay short DIA. There are some appealing breakouts on those
weekly charts now showing high Accumulation, a refusal to sell-off below their 30-wk ma
plus weekly Tiger Buy B12s.
See their charts at www.tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/WKLY/WKCHARTS.htm
Some of you have asked about our TigerSoft meetings here. This will give you some
sense of them. Note the new tables of data I introduced.
Minutes from San Diego TigerSoft Meeting 6/9/2018
I showed the basis for current S9v, mentioning that it occurred with the DJI closing 2.35%
over the 21-dma
instead of 2.4%. Otherwise, we would still be operating under a Buy B9. The optimal
bands around the
21-dma have been much less since 2010 than there were between 1970 and 2000. See the
table just below.
Presently, the DJI's upper 2.35% band is only 100 points higher and so is set to give
another S9V. Because
of this and the ample overhead resistance in the DJI, DIA should make a good short sale
while at the
same time holding long some Bullish MAXCPs in the tech sector. (Later in the meeting
I mentioned
the most bullish weekly charts I could find.
I show their charts here ---> http://www.tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/WKLY/WKCHARTS.htm
)
Optimized Fixed Interval Bands around 21-dma by Year:
These Bracket 95% of The DJI Closings:1915-2017
Year Optimized Fixed
Width Band
-------------------------------
1915-1919 4.8%
1920-1929 4.2%
1930-1939 8.1%
1940-1949 3.6%
1950-1959 3.3%
1960-1969 3.4%
1970-1979 4.5%
1980-1989 4.8%
1990-1999 4.7%
1990-1999 4.7%
2000-2010 5.2%
2010-2017 3.5% Big Drop Hence the need to reduce bands in some Sell Signals.
|
The key question: should we trust an S9V when the AD Line is making new highs?
"Yes" is the answer from 2011's chart. But "NO" is the answer
from charts of June 1929 and
June 1987 when the FED hesitated to raise rates when hikes were expected.
Next week the FOMC will decide whether to change rates or not. I doubted if the Fed
will raise rates;
they want to help Republicans and Trump. The strength in the Dollar makes a
rate hike seem unnecessary.
Productivity is still considerably above wage increases. Next week the CPI numbers
will come out. If they
stay at their current levels just above 2.1%, the Fed will not need to raise rates,
despite the low
unemployment level. But any surge in labor strikes outside of teachers might
give them reason to raise
rates. With unions representing less than 10% of workers these days, strikes would
seem unlikely, except
on the docks, in transportation and among machninists, but I am not aware of any contract
expirations in
these areas.
Seasonality would seem to favor a June pullback, especially given the 36% probability of a
June retreat
in the second year of a Presidential Election. But Trump is such an unusal
President, this statistic may
not be relevant. Either way, the bullishness of July is striking. August also
favors an adance. See
the statistics below. One could argue that the more recent period is more relevant.
In that case, note
from Table 2 below that from 2000 to 2017, the DJI fell on average 5.7% from May to
October.
Seasonality
Table A: Performance of DJI by Month: 1929-2017
--------------------------------------
Month No. Avg.Change Pct.Up
----- --- ---------- ------
January 88 .011 .613
February 88 .003 .613
March 88 .003 .59
April 88 .014 .647
May 88 -.004 .545
June 88 .008 .522 <---
July 88 .012 .602
August 88 .003 .613
Sept 88 -.011 .465
October 88 .003 .613
November 87 .005 .609
December 87 .014 .735
-------------------------------------------------
avg .005 .597
median .004 .611
Table B: "In May, Go Away"
-----------------
Average Annual DJI Gain
1915-1928 1929-1945 1946-2017 2000-2017
November- +5.4% -3.3% +7.3% +5.4%
April
May- +7.0% +3.6% +4.6% -5.3% <---
October
----------------------------------------------------------
Table 3 Monthly DJI Performance by Year in 4-Year Presidential Cycle
------------------------------------------------------------
1929-2017
Year of Year after 2nd Year after 3rd Year after
Pres.Election Presid.Election Presid. Election Presid. Election
----------------- ----------------- ------------------ -----------------
Month No. Avg. Pct.Up No. Avg. Pct.Up No. Avg. Pct.Up No. Avg. Pct.Up
Change Change Change Change
----- ----------------- ----------------- ------------------ ------------------
January 21 .008 .571 23 .007 .565 22 .002 .545 22 .025 .772
February 21 .004 .666 23 -.012 .478 22 .004 .636 22 .016 .681
March 21 .004 .666 23 .002 .478 22 .001 .636 22 .005 .59
April 21 -.009 .523 23 .03 .608 22 .007 .636 22 .026 .818
May 21 -.019 .523 23 .013 .652 22 -.007 .454 22 -.002 .545
June 21 .013 .714 23 .005 .391 22 -.009 .363 <--- 22 .024 .636
July 21 .016 .571 23 .02 .739 22 .006 .545 22 .004 .545
August 21 .022 .761 23 -.003 .521 22 -.009 .590 22 .002 .59
Sept 21 -.004 .38 23 -.016 .478 22 -.011 .409 22 -.012 .59
October 21 -.006 .571 23 -.01 .565 22 .027 .727 22 .002 .59
November 21 .002 .523 22 .007 .727 22 .015 .681 22 -.003 .5
December 21 .01 .809 22 .015 .772 22 .01 .590 22 .019 .772
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data from upcoming "Secrets of Peerless Stock Market Timing: 1915-2018
|
Looking again at the chart of the DJI again we see rising internal strength indicators.
Some in this situation,
would simply wait for clarification. MMl said "not every rainbow should be
followed".
But I noted that 2/3 of the S9Vs in June, should the DJI go higher, do bring declines to
the lower band.
1/3 bring much bigger advances. This omits the ADL as a consideration.
Should we trust a new Sell S9V if the market rallies?
In the one other case where the P-I was so strong,6/7/2004,
the DJI fell about 5% after its S9-V. There were two other cases
where the IP21 was above +.15. In one case, the DJI rose. In
the other, it fell.
Late May-June Sell S9Vs and Near S9Vs in Bull Markets and Their Outcome.
5 rallies 10 declines
6/17/1929 319.3 -2.9% B4 given on 6/26/1929, producing 7.5% gain.
la/ma= 1.04 aroc= -.031 PI=-46 (+12) IP21= -.046 VI=-486 OP=.164
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/2/1943 142.4 DJI rose to 145.8 on 7/14/43 and
then fell to 134 on 8/2/1943
la/ma= 1.024 aroc= .429 PI=+26 (-29) IP21= +.104 VI=-31 OP=.302
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/29/1945 169.1 DJI fell to 160.9 on 7/27/1945
la/ma= 1.022 aroc= .267 PI=+14 (+5) IP21= +.022 VI=-59 OP=.168
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/12/1950 228.4 DJI fell to 197.5 on 7/13/1950. NKorean invasion.
la/ma= 1.027 aroc= .520 PI=+33 (-3) IP21= +.176 VI=-50 OP=.338
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/28/1954 336.1 DJI rose steadily for rest of year.
la/ma= 1.027 aroc= .353 PI=+42 (+5) IP21= +.146 VI=-66 OP=.479
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/7/1955 434.6 DJI rose until 7/26/1955 (468.4) and then fell to 3% LB.
la/ma= 1.028 aroc= .304 PI=+40 (-4) IP21= +.080 VI=-59 OP=.276
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/8/1957 518.4 Also S9. DJI fell to 419.8 on 10/22/1957
la/ma= 1.022 aroc= .324 PI=-27 (+4) IP21= +.038 VI=-188 OP=.352
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/1/1959 643.5 Also S7. DJI fell to 617.6 on 6/9/1959
la/ma= 1.019 aroc= .347 PI=-57 (-11) IP21= -.012 VI=-395 OP=.132
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/7/1976 1003.19 Also S5. DJI fell to 963.93 on 8/27/1975
la/ma= 1.027 aroc= .168 PI=+15 (+36) IP21= +.082 VI=0 OP=.055
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/8/1987 2351.64 Also S9/S12. Late B8 on 6/22/1987 gained 7.1%.
la/ma= 1.026 aroc= .088 PI=-32 (+23) IP21= -.045 VI=-4 OP=-.187
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/30/1999 10970.80 Also S9/S5 DJI fell to 10655.14 on 7/30/1999.
la/ma= 1.024 aroc= .417 PI=+64 (+44) IP21= +.053 VI=-2 OP=+.180
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/7/2004 10391.0 Also S9V DJI fell to 9815.33 on 8/6/2004
la/ma= 1.030 aroc= .177 PI=+351 (+188) IP21= +.034 VI=-22 OP=+.028
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/5/2009 9863.13 Also S9V DJI fell to 8163.60 on 7/7/2009
la/ma= 1.034 aroc= .353 PI=+251 (-63) IP21= +.023 VI=-126 OP=+.053
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/16/2010 10409.46 Also S9V DJI fell to 9686.48 on 7/2/2010
la/ma= 1.025 aroc= -.253 PI=+12 (+2) IP21= -.013 VI=-150 OP=-.203
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/30/2011 12414.34 Also S9V DJI fell to 10719.94 on 8/10/2011
la/ma= 1.027 aroc= .122 PI=+78 (+162) IP21= -.067 VI=-116 OP=+.012
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/8/2018 25316.53
la/ma= 1.020 aroc= .372 PI=+347 (-10) IP21= +.152 VI=-16 OP=+.199
|
Politics and Wall Street
So, we cannot be sure or as confident as we might like. Much will depend on Trump's
success in
Singapore regarding North Korea as well as what the Fed will do. I mentioned at this
point, that
we should consider Wall Street as a political contender. Populist democrats raise
class issues that
threaten Wall Street's ascendance. I opined that it was very important to see how
much the Democrats
have weakened themselves as an opposition party. On Friday, they told any would-be
candidates for
their Party's nomimation for Presidency that they must be declared Democrats (not
Democratic Socialists
as Sanders insisted that he was). I said this will be taken as a sign that the
establishment, corporate
Democrats would rather lose the national election than give up their big donor base.
Since this action
will divide the popular base and weaken the Democrats' appeal to many younger Sanders'
voters, this
announcement is bullish for the stock market. Michael added his opinion that this
did, indeed, show that
that the Dem leadership was clearly getting elderly and unable to change their thinking
even though it
might lose them the 2020 Presidential Election..
Stocks
Then we looked at stocks. I emphasized that MADRIGAL Pharm. was a "pin-up", an
ideal-type.
It showed more than a flat top breakout, high Accumulation and a strongly rising CLosing
Power at the
start of its move from below 20 ten months ago. (It recently hit 315.) It also
showed a pink Asynchronicity Indicator above its blue Synchronicicty Indicator. This
occurred on its recent doubling advance, too. The importance of a stronger pink line
here is that shorts are nervously covering on days when the DJI is down.
This bullish juxtaposition should shore up our confidence. It suggests we should
always look at this
indicator when judging what will happen when a stock makes an otherwise promising flat
topped
breakout.
Last, but not least, I showed a number of weekly charts like AMZN's where all pullbacks
stop at or
above the (red) 30-week ma over the last few years AND there are Buy B12s on the weekly
charts
AND very high levels of Accumulation. I noted that we see what look like breakouts
in many of them
occurring now. I stated that this could be aggressive fund managers' buying in
anticipation of yet another
leg up. But I warned that most of these stocks are getting very high priced.
Such high prices are apt
soon to bring about stock splits which make the stocks more palatable to ordinary
investors. That would
be just in time for a correction. Dan asked me to provide users a way to see Buy
B20s automatically
on charts of the NEWBUYB20s.
I should have taken a vote on whether there will be a June takeoff or a reversal back down
from resistance.
No one seemed very sure or certain, one way or another. They see the market as
being quite capable
now of going in either direction, given the right or wrong stimuli. I emphasized
that Peerless would probably know what to do by the end of June. Either we will get
a reversing Buy B4 because the P-I, IP21 or OBVPCT
shows a sharp rise over ten trading days, or Peerless will not give this signal.
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/08/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 253.27 .74 248.2 138.6% Bullish BLUE .17 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7645.51 10.44 7606.46 59.8% Bullish BLUE .257 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 278.19 .82 274.9 83.3% Bullish BLUE .269 .008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 174.44 .01 174.3 48.7% Bullish BLUE .229 .046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 364.67 2.06 358.66 112.9% Bullish BLUE .211 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 166.52 .5 164.71 81% Bullish BLUE .253 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 70.03 .67 67.06 312.4% ---- BLUE .143 .066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 44.5 1.2 39.71 902.7% Bullish BLUE .194 .336
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 176.78 -4.79 180.59 13.8% Bullish BLUE .221 .169
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 146.49 -.2 146.37 115.3% Bullish BLUE .249 .29
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.11 .35 109.13 12.3% Bullish BLUE .207 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.01 .15 122.37 21.2% Bearish RED -.15 -.085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.07 -.48 26.66 1.9% Bearish RED .044 .096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.04 -.4 20.74 -150.9% ---- RED .191 .302
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.8 -.08 33.91 -50.4% Bullish ---- -.091 -.017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.64 .01 24.78 -32.4% Bearish ---- -.116 -.02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.71 -.14 101.57 -10.8% Bullish ---- -.041 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.69 -.02 49.81 -154.1% Bearish RED -.061 -.094
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.86 -.06 6.7 0% Bearish RED -.097 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.87 -.8 34.53 252.5% Bullish BLUE .174 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.02 -.18 21.61 -88.7% Bearish RED .055 -.114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 191.7 -1.76 191.83 37.9% Bullish BLUE .152 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1120.87 -2.99 1139.29 6.1% Bullish BLUE .15 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.63 .75 101.67 41.3% Bullish BLUE .247 .074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1683.99 -5.31 1665.27 126.5% Bullish BLUE .191 .114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 189.1 .92 193.28 -127.4% Bullish BLUE .186 .173
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 262.28 -.62 264.85 88.6% Bullish BLUE .129 .122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 369.5 .97 360.73 175.8% Bullish BLUE .072 .092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 233.39 -.06 229.89 109.4% Bearish BLUE -.18 -.127
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 198.33 2.16 191.36 285.8% Bullish BLUE .235 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.32 -.97 152.5 58.3% Bearish RED -.099 .007
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180608
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 279 10:1 Bullish Ratio
NEWLOWS 23
MAXCP 120 Bullish Professionals' Bias
MINCP 48
TTTNH 117 Bullish Day Traders
TTTNL 89
FASTUP 151 Swing traders are net bullish.
FASTDOWN 84
CPCROSSA 121 Professionals switching to bullish side.
CPCROSSD 51
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 13
|
Table 3Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180608
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 120 72 60 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
RETAIL 53 11 21 %
HACKERS 23 4 17 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
REGBANKS 32 4 13 %
MILITARY 38 4 11 %
SOFTWARE 64 7 11 %
CHEM 62 6 10 %
INSURANC 31 3 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
INDEXES 195 17 9 %
RUS-1000 822 73 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
FINANCE 90 7 8 %
NASD-100 89 7 8 %
SP500 479 36 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
FIDSTKS 187 13 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
NIFTY 30 2 7 %
INFRA 34 2 6 %
BIOTECH 387 21 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
INDMATER 84 3 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
ELECTRON 175 5 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
REIT 172 3 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
|
Table 4
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180608
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 48 11 23 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
BIOTECH 387 7 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 175 1 1 %
RUS-1000 822 4 0 %
SP500 479 2 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/8/18
Bullish = 39
Bearish = 7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .912 .912 .912 .924 .941 .906
REGBANKS .906 .875 .906 .718 .75 .687
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
HOSPITAL .857 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714
RETAIL .792 .735 .773 .735 .66 .641
NIFTY .766 .8 .8 .766 .766 .733
HOMEBLDG .764 .588 .588 .529 .47 .47
CHEM .741 .725 .709 .661 .612 .58
OILGAS .74 .778 .763 .732 .74 .778
INFRA .735 .735 .705 .735 .705 .676
SOFTWARE .734 .734 .765 .75 .75 .75
FINANCE .722 .688 .688 .611 .6 .566
GUNS .722 .722 .666 .722 .722 .722
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
GAMING .714 .75 .75 .714 .714 .678
INDEXES .712 .692 .692 .625 .615 .641
SP-100 .708 .687 .687 .562 .583 .562
INDMATER .702 .678 .69 .69 .63 .63
DOWJONES .7 .7 .7 .533 .6 .566
HACKERS .695 .695 .739 .695 .695 .695
RUS-1000 .689 .671 .65 .608 .603 .577
MILITARY .684 .631 .552 .552 .552 .526
BONDFUND .675 .72 .666 .738 .702 .72
SP500 .668 .636 .615 .561 .559 .53
ELECTRON .662 .685 .674 .668 .64 .662
NASD-100 .662 .64 .662 .64 .617 .617
FIDSTKS .657 .647 .614 .534 .556 .518
SEMI .656 .671 .703 .703 .679 .718
COMODITY .654 .636 .69 .563 .6 .6
COMPUTER .652 .652 .739 .695 .695 .652
TRANSP .65 .5 .6 .6 .6 .6
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .538 .615 .538
BIOTECH .612 .609 .635 .617 .589 .594
BEVERAGE .6 .5 .45 .45 .55 .4
GREEN .6 .6 .7 .633 .633 .666
AUTO .575 .575 .6 .55 .475 .475
BIG17 .565 .543 .543 .521 .543 .565
CHINA .532 .58 .58 .564 .564 .451
INSURANC .516 .387 .387 .322 .29 .322
Bullish = 39
===========================================================================================
JETS .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 .3
===========================================================================================
GOLD .46 .48 .5 .5 .46 .5
FOOD .444 .444 .444 .333 .222 .444
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
ETFS .393 .377 .442 .377 .409 .262
SOLAR .38 .38 .428 .476 .476 .476
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .285 .142 .142 .142
UTILITY .214 .238 .238 .333 .333 .38
N=7
|
|
====================================================================
6/7/2018 The DJI could not breakout above its flat resistance. Peerless still
shows the operative signal to be a Sell S9-V. In fact, we
came within 130 points of getting another S9-v today. The DJI
was at a pivotal point and its breakout failed. A decline to retest
24500 seems a good possibility now.
The NASDAQ made a nominal closing high but it also failed to hold
above its January high closing. When we look at the NASDAQ chart
using bands around its 65-dma, we see it reached yesterday as overbought
a condition, 6% over the 65-dma, as it was oversold, at its bottom a few
months ago.
All these factors came into play today. The downside action
of the tech stocks was surprisingly intense. Today's "red popsicles"
on IWM, QQQ and TECL look very much like those before other
tech corrections over the past year. In TECL's chart below,
there is considerable risk, epecially if the green uptrendlines are violated.
A weak closing tomorrow will break the Closing Power uptrends.
The risks in the market now outweigh the rewards unless the bulls find
a new way to assert themselves or the White House finds a new carrot
to dangle in front of Wall Street. Let's see how much
downside damage
follows today's tech reversal.
With the upside limited and the DJI's rise today completely
unconfirmed
by the leading ETFs, QQQ, IWM and TECL as well as the NASDAQ,
we have to switch to a defensive posture. All day, QQQ, IWM and
TECL fell despite the DJI being up more than 200 early in the day. This
has the look of a significant reversal downward, given the four S9s
since January and the still negative V-Indicator with the DJI at the
upper 1.7% band. Later in June, the bullish 1929 and 1987 Summer
examples might still play out in 2018. But first, we are going to have to see how
much muscle the BEARS have.
Selling out our long ETFs and shorting DIA as well as the weakest
MINCPs must be the first order of business, given today's ugliness. With the
S9-V still operative, a decline back below 24000 seems quite likely.
Charts 6/7/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/7/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/607/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/607/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/07/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 252.53 1.01 246.36 168.6% Bullish BLUE .155 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7635.07 -54.17 7554.33 127.2% Bullish RED .268 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 277.37 -.03 273.6 117.2% Bullish RED .255 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 174.43 -1.43 172.74 125.6% Bullish RED .248 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 362.61 .14 356.54 112.6% Bullish RED .15 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 166.02 -.91 163.84 98.6% Bullish RED .239 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 69.36 -.28 65.8 389.3% Bullish RED .157 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 43.3 .84 37.12 853.8% Bullish BLUE .157 .345
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 181.57 -4.95 176.28 458.7% Bullish RED .245 .125
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 146.69 -4.08 143.1 370.6% Bullish RED .287 .268
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 109.76 -.76 109.84 59.9% Bullish RED .218 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.86 -.06 122.49 -9.8% Bearish RED -.173 -.096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.55 .55 27.06 74.2% Bullish BLUE .034 .096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.44 1.37 22.69 -99.4% ---- BLUE .106 .277
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.88 .66 34.14 -95.9% Bullish BLUE -.051 -.003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.63 -.05 24.8 -26.3% ---- ---- -.081 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.85 .43 101.93 -32.4% Bullish BLUE -.007 -.071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.71 .34 50.21 -229% Bearish BLUE -.083 -.091
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.92 .05 6.86 44.1% Bearish RED -.095 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 35.67 -.53 33.11 552.8% Bullish RED .196 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.2 -.3 21.4 21% Bearish RED .062 -.108
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 193.46 -.52 190.24 172.3% Bullish RED .159 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1123.86 -13.02 1119.5 172.9% Bullish RED .191 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.88 -1.61 100.79 100.8% Bullish RED .275 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1689.3 -6.45 1641.54 179.1% Bullish RED .228 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 188.18 -3.16 193.99 -93.4% Bullish RED .208 .176
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 262.9 -2.25 257.62 205.2% Bullish RED .168 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 368.53 -3.03 356.72 227.2% Bullish RED .08 .088
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 233.45 1.22 228.35 165.3% Bearish RED -.146 -.116
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 196.17 2.58 187.35 252.9% Bullish BLUE .231 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 156.29 -.22 153.52 142.7% ---- RED -.038 .004
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180607
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 196 Bullish but NHs have fallen 50% from 2 days ago.
NEWLOWS 37
MAXCP 78
MINCP 83 Bearish shift.
TTTNH 90
TTTNL 155 Day Traders switched to bearish mode.
FASTUP 168 Swing traders remain bullish.
FASTDOWN 94
CPCROSSA 68
CPCROSSD 122 Pros switching to bearish mode.
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 17 More dumping...
|
Table 3Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180607
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 78 37 47 %
RETAIL 53 11 21 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
COAL 8 1 13 %
BIG17 48 5 10 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
REGBANKS 32 3 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
FINANCE 90 6 7 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
FIDSTKS 187 10 5 %
RUS-1000 822 42 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 387 15 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
SP500 479 21 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDEXES 195 5 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
OILGAS 131 2 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
INDMATER 84 1 1 %
REIT 172 2 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180607
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 83 23 28 %
UTILITY 42 5 12 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
GOLD 50 3 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
BIOTECH 387 7 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 187 1 1 %
FINANCE 90 1 1 %
INDMATER 84 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 131 1 1 %
RUS-1000 822 6 1 %
SP500 479 2 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/7/18
Bullish = 36
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .912 .912 .924 .941 .906 .912
COAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
REGBANKS .875 .906 .718 .75 .718 .625
NIFTY .793 .793 .758 .758 .724 .655
OILGAS .778 .763 .732 .74 .786 .786
GAMING .75 .75 .714 .714 .678 .678
INFRA .735 .705 .735 .705 .676 .617
RETAIL .735 .773 .735 .66 .622 .603
SOFTWARE .734 .765 .75 .75 .75 .625
CHEM .725 .709 .661 .612 .596 .58
GUNS .722 .666 .722 .722 .722 .722
BONDFUND .72 .666 .738 .702 .702 .783
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
DOWJONES .7 .7 .533 .6 .533 .466
HACKERS .695 .739 .695 .695 .695 .652
FINANCE .688 .688 .611 .6 .566 .533
ELECTRON .687 .676 .664 .636 .653 .545
INDEXES .687 .692 .625 .615 .641 .584
SP-100 .687 .687 .562 .583 .552 .541
INDMATER .678 .69 .69 .63 .63 .607
RUS-1000 .671 .65 .608 .603 .581 .553
SEMI .671 .703 .703 .679 .71 .578
COMPUTER .652 .739 .695 .695 .652 .565
FIDSTKS .647 .614 .534 .556 .518 .465
NASD-100 .64 .662 .64 .617 .617 .573
COMODITY .636 .69 .563 .6 .6 .654
SP500 .636 .615 .561 .559 .532 .49
MILITARY .631 .552 .552 .552 .526 .5
DJI-13 .615 .615 .538 .615 .538 .461
BIOTECH .609 .635 .617 .589 .591 .56
GREEN .6 .7 .633 .633 .666 .633
HOMEBLDG .588 .588 .529 .47 .47 .47
BIG17 .583 .562 .541 .562 .562 .562
CHINA .58 .58 .564 .564 .451 .516
AUTO .575 .6 .55 .475 .475 .45
HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .571
N=36
============================================================================================
BEVERAGE .5 .45 .45 .55 .4 .4
TRANSP .5 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6
============================================================================================
GOLD .48 .5 .5 .46 .5 .5
FOOD .444 .444 .333 .222 .444 .555
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
INSURANC .387 .387 .322 .29 .322 .258
SOLAR .38 .428 .476 .476 .476 .666
ETFS .377 .442 .377 .409 .278 .229
JETS .3 .5 .4 .4 .3 .4
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .142 .142 .142 .142
UTILITY .238 .238 .333 .333 .38 .547
N=9
|
|
====================================================================
6/6/2018 The DJI is now at the flat resistance of 25150. It is also 0.65%
away from
its upper 2.35% band, the level at which we are likely to get a new Sell S9-V
because the V-I is still negative.
While this may bring a reversal, I would rather stay long IWM, TECL and QQQ
for the time being. The technical reasons for being bullish have been laid out
in previous Hotlines. The June 1929 and June 1987 scenarios seem the most
applicable for us now. See in their charts just below how the DJI in June in
these cases broke above its resistance and the Peerless internal strength indicators
rapidly improved, thus giving a reversing Buy B4, which though late, was still
quite profitable. So, anticipating a breakout and the possibility of a Buy B4,
I would also avoid shorting DIA for now.
1987 June Buy B4
June Buy B4 1929
Another ETF leading the present rally is RETL. Mostly it is the big importers
that are boosting RETL now. They are all benefitting from the strong Dollar. It
is a huge mistake to think of RETL as being synonoymous with Sears or
JC Penny. Everything revolves around the terms of international trade for RETL.
As the Dollar goes, so goes RETL now.
RETL and Strongest (Importers) Retail stocks
|
Charts of Most Bullish ETFS
|
Charts 6/6/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/6/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/606/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/606/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/06/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF.
IP21 ITRS
Strongest are IWM .297 .049
RETL .293 .259
SOXL .297 .041
TECL .336 .193
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 251.52 3.37 244.18 97.7% Bullish BLUE .178 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7689.24 51.38 7442.12 150.4% Bullish BLUE .309 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 277.4 2.3 270.94 87.6% Bullish BLUE .283 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 175.86 1.02 170.07 164.7% Bullish BLUE .295 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 362.47 2.98 354.54 54.3% Bullish BLUE .18 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 166.93 1.2 162.77 86.8% Bullish BLUE .297 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 69.64 3.04 64.17 323.7% Bullish BLUE .168 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 42.46 .66 36.55 494% Bullish RED .293 .259
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 186.52 3.53 165.21 504.9% Bullish BLUE .297 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 150.77 2.54 135.95 523.9% Bullish BLUE .336 .193
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 110.52 1.36 108.45 92.2% Bullish BLUE .223 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.92 .07 123.1 -18.3% Bearish RED -.147 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27 .17 27.15 -118.2% ---- BLUE .073 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.07 .29 22.87 -538.3% ---- RED .148 .118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.22 -.37 34.53 -249.9% ---- RED -.051 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.68 -.07 24.76 -20.2% Bearish ---- -.123 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.42 -.41 102.51 -55.8% Bullish RED -.019 -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.37 -1.18 50.99 -252.5% Bearish RED -.137 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.87 .13 6.86 22.1% Bearish ---- -.076 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 36.2 1.44 31.9 742.8% Bullish BLUE .246 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.5 .09 21.11 16.4% Bullish BLUE .15 -.084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 193.98 .67 186.87 170.6% Bullish BLUE .201 .083
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1136.88 -2.78 1084.99 311.1% Bullish RED .205 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 102.49 .3 98.84 176.1% Bullish ---- .329 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1695.75 -.6 1629.62 214.5% Bullish RED .241 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 191.34 -1.6 191.78 95.6% Bullish BLUE .27 .155
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 265.15 .08 252.19 235.2% Bullish BLUE .201 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 371.56 11.46 352.16 187% Bullish BLUE .086 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 232.23 3.89 225.88 67.2% Bearish BLUE -.154 -.129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 193.59 1.65 186.55 172.1% Bullish BLUE .249 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 156.51 3.5 151.91 34.3% ---- BLUE -.018 .009
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180606
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 537 Bullish
NEWLOWS 44
MAXCP 194 Bullish
MINCP 89
TTTNH 155 Day Traders are net bullish.
TTTNL 121
FASTUP 195 Swing Traders are net bullish.
FASTDOWN 108
CPCROSSA 164 Pros have shifted to bullish side.
CPCROSSD 45
BIGVOLUP 6
BIGVODN 2
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180606
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 194 158 81 %
EDU 7 3 43 %
NIFTY 29 10 34 %
SOFTWARE 64 21 33 %
REGBANKS 32 10 31 %
COMPUTER 23 7 30 %
HACKERS 23 6 26 %
NASD-100 89 22 25 %
FINANCE 90 22 24 %
DJI-13 13 3 23 %
RETAIL 53 12 23 %
DOWJONES 30 6 20 %
FIDSTKS 187 29 16 %
INDEXES 195 32 16 %
CHEM 62 9 15 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
INDMATER 85 12 14 %
BIG17 46 6 13 %
MILITARY 38 5 13 %
RUS-1000 822 109 13 %
SP500 479 64 13 %
COAL 9 1 11 %
ELECTRON 176 20 11 %
SP-100 96 11 11 %
BIOTECH 387 39 10 %
GREEN 30 3 10 %
INSURANC 31 3 10 %
SEMI 128 13 10 %
INFRA 34 3 9 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
OILGAS 132 5 4 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
REIT 172 5 3 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
MINCP 89 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180606
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 89 26 29 %
UTILITY 42 10 24 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 64 2 3 %
SP500 479 14 3 %
BIOTECH 387 6 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 187 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 132 3 2 %
RUS-1000 822 17 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
FINANCE 90 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/6/18
Bullish = 37
Bearish = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .912 .924 .941 .906 .912 .93
REGBANKS .906 .718 .75 .718 .625 .687
COAL .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
NIFTY .793 .758 .758 .724 .655 .689
RETAIL .773 .735 .66 .622 .603 .735
OILGAS .765 .734 .742 .787 .795 .803
SOFTWARE .765 .75 .75 .75 .64 .64
GAMING .75 .714 .714 .678 .678 .678
COMPUTER .739 .695 .695 .652 .565 .652
HACKERS .739 .695 .695 .695 .652 .652
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 .857
CHEM .709 .661 .612 .596 .58 .596
INFRA .705 .735 .705 .676 .617 .647
SEMI .703 .703 .679 .71 .585 .648
DOWJONES .7 .533 .6 .533 .5 .6
GREEN .7 .633 .633 .666 .633 .666
COMODITY .696 .571 .607 .607 .66 .642
INDMATER .694 .694 .635 .635 .611 .6
INDEXES .692 .625 .615 .641 .584 .635
FINANCE .688 .611 .6 .566 .533 .544
SP-100 .687 .562 .583 .552 .552 .604
ELECTRON .676 .664 .636 .653 .551 .607
BONDFUND .666 .738 .702 .702 .756 .666
GUNS .666 .722 .722 .722 .722 .611
NASD-100 .662 .64 .617 .617 .573 .606
RUS-1000 .65 .608 .603 .581 .557 .613
BIOTECH .635 .617 .589 .591 .558 .583
DJI-13 .615 .538 .615 .538 .538 .615
SP500 .615 .561 .559 .532 .492 .563
FIDSTKS .614 .534 .556 .518 .47 .529
AUTO .6 .55 .475 .475 .45 .425
TRANSP .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .65
HOMEBLDG .588 .529 .47 .47 .47 .529
CHINA .58 .564 .564 .451 .5 .483
MILITARY .552 .552 .552 .526 .5 .552
BIG17 .543 .521 .543 .565 .521 .521
N= 37
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLD .5 .5 .46 .5 .5 .54
JETS .5 .4 .4 .3 .4 .3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BEVERAGE .45 .45 .55 .4 .4 .45
FOOD .444 .333 .222 .444 .555 .666
ETFS .442 .377 .409 .278 .245 .245
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
SOLAR .428 .476 .476 .476 .619 .714
INSURANC .387 .322 .29 .322 .258 .29
BIGBANKS .285 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
UTILITY .238 .333 .333 .38 .547 .571
N= 8
|
====================================================================
6/5/2018 We do still show a
Peerless S9-V. 25150 is the expected
stiffest resistance now. But avoid shorting DIA and instead
I've suggested being long the tech ETFs and IWM.
Once again, the DJI was weak today and the NASDAQ, QQQ,
TECL and IWM made new highs. I've talked aplenty recently about
the reasons for choosing to be long QQQ, TECL and IWM, despite
the Peerless Sell signal. The bullish technicals in these ETFs is clear
and we have the precedents of 1929 and 1987 when the FED's unexpected
refusal to keep on raising rates sparked a Summer-time advance.
I introduced last night the idea that we should be watching our
Tiger Chart of the stocks with the biggest Short Positions relative to
float and average trading volume. That turned up today and did not
bring a break in its neckline support. This makes the potential
head/shoulders pattern there seem less likely to unfold. It looks like
Professional Shorts could again be getting nervous about the possibility
of a very decent June and Summer rally.
The additional rise of the FANG stocks today will also serve
to make it seem
to the Public that this bull market is not coming to a stop anytime soon.
Today's 10-point additional rise in MADRIGAL PHARM after more
than
doubling in one day last week seems perfectly designed for turning on the
speculative animal spirits. See the Bullish MAXCPs.
Will some more mergers develop soon? Big money is not immune
to these animal spirits. The Oil Refinery plays have worked well. We should
expect another group to play like this.
Watch the Closing Power of FAS. It has been downtrending for five
months. A break in its downtrend would be bullish for the DJI.
Since the mid 1980s, bank stocks more than any group have traded
the best of any industry group using our Peerless signals. A new move up
by FAS now would almost certainly help launch an early Summer rally.
Charts 6/5/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/5/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/605/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/605/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/05/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF. IWM, RETL, TECL are the strongest,
based on ITRS.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 248.15 -.05 246.7 95.6% ---- ---- .12 ------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7637.86 31.4 7462.45 161% Bullish BLUE .245 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 275.1 .2 272.61 111.7% Bullish BLUE .238 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 174.84 .54 170.18 171.4% Bullish BLUE .259 .048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 359.49 .83 358.59 88.5% Bullish BLUE .141 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 165.73 1.02 164.08 128.8% Bullish BLUE .255 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.6 -.46 65.38 324.8% ---- RED .111 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 41.8 2.09 38.63 607.8% Bullish BLUE .268 .34 Wow
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 182.99 2.4 168.87 507.9% Bullish BLUE .26 .139
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 148.23 1.86 135.9 549.5% Bullish BLUE .279 .295
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 109.16 .03 108.51 95.8% Bullish BLUE .211 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.85 .48 123.37 -13.8% ---- BLUE -.133 -.093
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.83 .17 27.64 -25.8% ---- BLUE -.006 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.78 .04 23.45 -114.8% ---- BLUE .085 .136
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.59 -.32 34.93 -83% ---- ---- -.084 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.75 -.03 24.78 -44.3% Bearish ---- -.187 .001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.83 .26 102.56 -57.2% Bullish ---- -.003 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.55 -.26 50.91 -94.1% Bearish RED -.074 -.045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.74 .04 6.84 -189.7% Bearish ---- -.126 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.76 .23 31.28 611% Bullish RED .182 .046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.41 -.2 21.43 129.2% Bearish RED .071 -.104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 193.31 1.48 187.5 143.2% Bullish BLUE .089 .117
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1139.66 .37 1067.8 362.5% Bullish RED .194 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 102.19 .52 98.95 209.7% Bullish BLUE .317 .117
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1696.35 31.08 1624.89 255.3% Bullish BLUE .291 .079
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 192.94 -.34 187.67 189% Bullish RED .238 .155
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 265.07 .22 252.99 322.8% Bullish BLUE .191 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 360.1 -.63 358.19 107% Bullish RED .047 .066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 228.34 -1.55 229.16 28.7% Bearish RED -.18 -.124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 191.94 .58 187.09 185.1% Bullish BLUE .195 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.01 .51 155.46 -19.9% Bearish BLUE -.059 .005
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180605
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 433 Bullish
NEWLOWS 68
MAXCP 174 Bullish
MINCP 123
TTTNH 151
TTTNL 158
FASTUP 204 Bullish
FASTDOWN 88
CPCROSSA 145 Bullish
CPCROSSD 51
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180605
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 174 126 72 %
EDU 7 4 57 %
NIFTY 29 9 31 %
HACKERS 23 6 26 %
RETAIL 53 14 26 %
SOFTWARE 64 16 25 %
COAL 9 2 22 %
COMPUTER 23 5 22 %
NASD-100 89 19 21 %
REGBANKS 32 5 16 %
GAMING 28 4 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
INDEXES 195 28 14 %
DOWJONES 30 4 13 %
INSURANC 31 4 13 %
SEMI 128 16 13 %
BIG17 46 5 11 %
ELECTRON 176 20 11 %
BIOTECH 387 39 10 %
CHEM 62 6 10 %
FIDSTKS 188 19 10 %
SP500 480 49 10 %
RUS-1000 823 78 9 %
SP-100 96 9 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
FINANCE 90 7 8 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
INDMATER 85 6 7 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
OILGAS 132 2 2 %
REIT 172 3 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180605
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 123 39 32 %
UTILITY 42 5 12 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
ETFS 61 4 7 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
FINANCE 90 3 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
BIOTECH 387 7 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 188 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 132 3 2 %
RUS-1000 823 13 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 480 7 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/5/18
Bullish = 37
Bearish = 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .924 .941 .906 .912 .93 .854
COAL .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .888
NIFTY .758 .758 .724 .655 .689 .62
SOFTWARE .75 .75 .75 .64 .64 .609
BONDFUND .738 .702 .702 .756 .666 .657
INFRA .735 .705 .676 .617 .647 .47
RETAIL .735 .66 .622 .603 .735 .641
OILGAS .734 .742 .787 .795 .803 .757
GUNS .722 .722 .722 .722 .611 .611
REGBANKS .718 .75 .718 .625 .687 .625
EDU .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .714
GAMING .714 .714 .678 .678 .678 .607
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .571 .857 .571
SEMI .703 .679 .71 .585 .648 .609
COMPUTER .695 .695 .652 .565 .652 .652
HACKERS .695 .695 .695 .652 .652 .695
INDMATER .694 .635 .635 .611 .6 .529
ELECTRON .664 .636 .653 .551 .607 .585
CHEM .661 .612 .596 .58 .596 .58
NASD-100 .64 .617 .617 .573 .606 .516
GREEN .633 .633 .666 .633 .7 .6
INDEXES .62 .615 .641 .584 .635 .569
BIOTECH .617 .589 .591 .558 .586 .542
FINANCE .611 .6 .566 .533 .533 .411
RUS-1000 .607 .602 .58 .556 .611 .528
TRANSP .6 .6 .6 .6 .65 .65
COMODITY .571 .607 .607 .66 .642 .535
CHINA .564 .564 .451 .5 .483 .403
SP-100 .562 .583 .552 .552 .604 .489
SP500 .56 .558 .531 .491 .56 .458
MILITARY .552 .552 .526 .5 .552 .473
AUTO .55 .475 .475 .45 .425 .325
DJI-13 .538 .615 .538 .538 .615 .538
DOWJONES .533 .6 .533 .5 .6 .533
FIDSTKS .531 .553 .515 .468 .526 .436
HOMEBLDG .529 .47 .47 .47 .529 .47
BIG17 .521 .543 .565 .521 .543 .478
N=37
==========================================================================================
GOLD .5 .46 .5 .5 .54 .46
==========================================================================================
SOLAR .476 .476 .476 .619 .761 .619
BEVERAGE .45 .55 .4 .4 .45 .4
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
JETS .4 .4 .3 .4 .3 .3
ETFS .377 .409 .278 .245 .245 .18
FOOD .333 .222 .444 .555 .666 .555
UTILITY .333 .333 .38 .547 .571 .547
INSURANC .322 .29 .322 .258 .322 .322
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 0
N=9
|
|
====================================================================
6/4/2018 June
Gloom or Boom? Our Peerless Sell S9 warns of trouble
ahead,
either in the form of another test of 23500 or one more rally and then
a considerable plunge. I favor the second possibility.
The bullish signs now include:
1) bullish action by the NASDAQ again today,
2) the clear upsweeps in the A/D Line, the P-Indicator and
our Accumulation Index on the Peerless DJI chart,
3) the signs that the Fed will not be raising rates this Summer,
4) the fact that more than 60% of the Industries we follow are
safely back above their 65-dma.
5) that new highs are many times the number of new lows.
6) both SP-500 and OEX are approaching breakout points.
The Junes 1929 and 1987 also show that multiple S9s can be overcome
for a few months. So, a further advance, especially in the tech stocks
seems a likely scenario. I've suggested we not be short DIA for now
and instead play the much stronger QQQ, TECL and IWM on the long
side. Look through the Bullish MAXCPs for long trading positions.
.
Professional Shorts' Are Still Bearish
The Professional shorts and hedgers do not look particularly worried
about their favorite shorts rising at this time. We can glean this from the
abundance of stocks whose Closing Powers are making new lows. But
can see it in another way.
I thought in view of yesterday's +100% one day rise in heavily shorted
MADRIGAL PHARM, we should watch to see if the professional
shorts are getting nervous and could cause a rally if they all covered
in a panic. So, I downloaded the data on the stocks with the highest
ratio of shorts to float and shorts to average trading volume. You
can download these stocks as the SHORTS.exe download tomomorrow.
All this suggests we should stay short some of our Bearish MINCPs. They
keep falling. And they might increase their rate of decline if the head/shoulders
in the chart below plays out.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/04/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF. IWM, RETL, TECL are the strongest,
based on ITRS. FAS and GS are weak.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 248.2 1.84 243.45 16.9% ---- BLUE .136 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7606.46 52.13 7396.59 115.7% Bullish BLUE .271 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 274.9 1.3 269.02 50.6% Bullish BLUE .265 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 174.3 1.56 168.97 134.4% Bullish BLUE .289 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 358.66 2.12 353.18 59.6% Bullish BLUE .137 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 164.71 .87 161.52 91.2% Bullish BLUE .246 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.06 1.26 62.38 9.2% ---- BLUE .138 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 39.71 2.59 37.2 318.5% Bullish BLUE .217 .249
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 180.59 4.31 165.59 348.3% Bullish BLUE .311 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 146.37 3.27 132.97 395.4% Bullish BLUE .318 .192
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 109.13 -.71 107.08 72.5% Bullish RED .23 -.028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.37 -.12 123.19 -34.1% Bearish RED -.114 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.66 -.4 26.97 -80.9% ---- RED -.013 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.74 -1.95 21.29 -143.3% ---- RED .11 .129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.91 -.23 34.16 -100.1% ---- RED -.064 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.78 -.02 24.97 -4% Bearish BLUE -.192 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.57 -.36 103 -16.1% Bullish RED .004 -.047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.81 -.4 50.5 -68.2% Bearish RED -.065 -.036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.7 -.16 7 -260% Bearish RED -.089 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.53 1.42 30.81 254.7% Bullish BLUE .199 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.61 .21 20.86 80.1% ---- BLUE .1 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 191.83 1.59 187.9 86.3% Bullish BLUE .168 .099
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1139.29 19.79 1060.32 294.1% Bullish BLUE .251 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 101.67 .88 98.01 167.2% Bullish BLUE .324 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1665.27 23.73 1612.87 169.7% Bullish BLUE .272 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 193.28 -.71 185.74 221.4% Bullish BLUE .308 .135
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 264.85 7.23 248.59 308.8% Bullish BLUE .219 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 360.73 4.01 352.48 9% Bullish BLUE .091 .092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 229.89 1.54 227.03 -111.7% Bearish RED -.17 -.127
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 191.36 4.01 185 120.9% Bullish BLUE .184 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 152.5 -1.02 153.62 -108.7% ---- RED -.045 .001
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180604
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 423 Bullish
NEWLOWS 49
MAXCP 146 Net Bullish
MINCP 111
TTTNH 116
TTTNL 139 Day Traders are net bearish.
FASTUP 136 Swing traders are net bullish.
FASTDOWN 106
CPCROSSA 121 Professionals switich to bullish side.
CPCROSSD 58
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 12
ACCUMVER 16
HIGHIP21 90
HIUPPCT 142
VHIP21 28
LOWACCUM 382
REDSELL 158
AUGSELS7 19
TRAPDOOR 26
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180604
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 146 107 73 %
NIFTY 29 9 31 %
EDU 7 2 29 %
REGBANKS 32 9 28 %
RETAIL 53 15 28 %
HACKERS 23 6 26 %
SOFTWARE 64 16 25 %
COAL 9 2 22 %
NASD-100 89 17 19 %
FINANCE 91 14 15 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
DOWJONES 30 4 13 %
INDEXES 195 26 13 %
REIT 172 20 12 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
ELECTRON 176 17 10 %
RUS-1000 824 83 10 %
SEMI 128 13 10 %
BIOTECH 387 34 9 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
FIDSTKS 188 17 9 %
SP500 480 45 9 %
CHEM 62 5 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
SP-100 96 8 8 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
OILGAS 133 5 4 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
BIG17 46 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
MINCP 111 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180604
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 111 25 23 %
MILITARY 38 3 8 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
BIOTECH 387 13 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 64 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 188 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
RUS-1000 824 12 1 %
SP500 480 4 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/4/18
Bullish = 35
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .941 .906 .912 .93 .854 .837
COAL .888 .888 .888 .888 .888 .777
NIFTY .758 .724 .655 .689 .62 .689
REGBANKS .75 .718 .625 .687 .625 .75
SOFTWARE .75 .75 .64 .64 .609 .625
OILGAS .736 .781 .796 .804 .759 .744
GUNS .722 .722 .722 .611 .611 .555
EDU .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 .857
GAMING .714 .678 .678 .678 .607 .642
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .571 .857 .571 .714
INFRA .705 .676 .617 .647 .47 .558
BONDFUND .702 .702 .756 .666 .648 .369
COMPUTER .695 .652 .565 .652 .652 .695
HACKERS .695 .695 .652 .652 .695 .695
SEMI .679 .71 .585 .648 .609 .648
RETAIL .66 .622 .603 .735 .622 .66
ELECTRON .636 .653 .551 .607 .579 .602
INDMATER .635 .635 .611 .6 .529 .6
GREEN .633 .666 .633 .7 .6 .666
NASD-100 .617 .617 .573 .606 .516 .595
DJI-13 .615 .538 .538 .615 .538 .615
INDEXES .615 .641 .584 .635 .558 .666
CHEM .612 .596 .58 .596 .58 .629
COMODITY .607 .607 .66 .642 .535 .607
RUS-1000 .603 .581 .557 .611 .527 .599
DOWJONES .6 .533 .5 .6 .5 .6
TRANSP .6 .6 .6 .65 .65 .7
FINANCE .593 .56 .527 .527 .406 .56
BIOTECH .589 .591 .558 .586 .542 .563
SP-100 .583 .552 .552 .604 .489 .604
CHINA .564 .451 .5 .483 .387 .435
SP500 .558 .531 .491 .56 .456 .56
FIDSTKS .553 .515 .468 .526 .43 .553
MILITARY .552 .526 .5 .552 .473 .552
BEVERAGE .55 .4 .4 .45 .4 .4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIG2017WINNERS .543 .565 .521 .543 .478 .5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR .476 .476 .619 .761 .619 .714
AUTO .475 .475 .45 .425 .325 .45
HOMEBLDG .47 .47 .47 .529 .47 .411
GOLD .46 .5 .5 .54 .46 .56
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
ETFS .409 .278 .245 .245 .163 .262
JETS .4 .3 .4 .3 .3 .5
UTILITY .333 .38 .547 .571 .547 .571
INSURANC .29 .322 .258 .322 .322 .322
FOOD .222 .444 .555 .666 .555 .777
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 0 .285
N=11
|
.
====================================================================
6/1/2018 Let's
not be stubborn about the S9s. They can fail. Usually, they fail
when Peerless gives a flat-top breakout Buy B10 or a Buy B4. A DJI
close above 25150 may give a Buy B10. We will have to wait and see
about that. That resistance is still 500 points above Friday's close.
A Buy B4 occurs when there is sharp improvement in either our
P-I, Accumulation Index or the OBVPct. So, a Buy B4 could occur
here.
The NASDAQ's chart looks ready to run to the upside. Perhaps, it will
be the leader of the market now.
This is a market that could run in a lot of shorts. MADRIGAL's doubling
was a foretaste. The Bullish Jobs numbers are only partly to explain for
Friday's big jump and the developing strength this morning. I take the
market as acting too strongly to be short DIA, despite the S9V. Instead,
buy some of our MAXCPs. QQQ and TECL look like they are about
start very playable short covering rallies. IWM seems headed to 170.
Buy any of these. Only a rupture in their Closing Power uptrends or
the A/D Line uptrend should get us to sell these, not even a new Sell S9V.
What about the negative V-Indicators readings? I have looked back at the
bull markets to find cases where the V-I was negative
going into June.
(Because we can only estimate the Up and Down volume before 1965,
I will skip those earlier cases.)
What happens in a Bull Market when V-I is Negative
at start of June?
In 3 of 5 cases, the DJI rose until at least mid-July. That scenerio is the
most likley now. Note that in the two cases where the DJI reversed quickly
down in June, Peerless gave new Sell signals at the upper band.
1 June 1972 - Sell S9V - DJI
quickly fell back from UB and fell to lower band (UB).
2 June 1987 - Buy B4 on 6/22/1987 (2446). DJI rose to 8/26/87 (Sell S4) - 2701.
After an S9/S12 at start of October, DJI fell a total of 36% from
August peak.
3 June 1991 - Sell S3 - DJI
quickly fell back from UB and fell to LB.
4 June 1998 - Sell S9V and S12. DJI rose until mid July and then fell 19%
5 July 1999 - Sell S9V and S5. DJI rose until mid July and then fell to LB.
Long Memories.
1929 Summer-Take off. The last hurrah!
|
1987 Summer-Take off. Then the Plunge.
|
2017 A Summer-Take off. Then what?
|
What would be the stimulus for a rally here?
My belief now is that the the Fed seems unlikely to raise rates this Summer.
Previously rate hikes were expected. Now, the FED may choose not to
aggravate the exceptional weakness in many foreign currencies. Meanwhile,
the recent political victories of the Socialists in Spain and Anti-Euro Populists in
Italy should spur overseas funds to rush to America as a haven. So, there is no
for the Fed to defend the Dollar. That is usually a primary consideration when
the Fed raises rates. Is there too much inflation? Watch Oil prices.
They
seem to have cooled off. Are real wages going up fast? Not enough yet to
scare the Fed. A strong economy going in to Fall Elections is very important.
Unions are so weak now, except for teachers, that does not seem to be a
problem. Casino workers in Las Vegas have just voted not strike. So, I
would guess that the Fed will not be raising rates this Summer. That should be
quite bullish.
At least, more than any other factor, it was the delay in raising rates in the
Summer of 1929 and 1987 that seems to have played the biggest role in those
market's late rallies. People change but the motivations and advantages don't.
Back then, Insiders and Big Money quickly picked up on the FED's shifts away
from more hawkish monetary stances. In both those years, Summer brought a
big improvement in our Accumulation Index and in our P-Indicator and
reversing Buy B4s on strength.
It's true that the DJI now is still below its 25100 flat resistance, but I think
we have to be prepared for a belated DJI advance back to 26000. The odds
favor a strong June here. This is surprisingly
since Junes are typically a weak
month. So, in this sense, we might even consider a June that ends at its monthly
highs
to be much like unusually strong September endings with their very Bullish B21's.
So, just like Peerless gave reversing Buy B4s on strength in June 1929 and June 1987,
we may get a Buy B4 in the next two weeks here. Knowing this, we have an
advantage, namely we can buy now!
How can we recognize June will be a bullish month? First, I would
expect the NASDAQ, QQQ and TECL to explode their potential head/shoulders
patterns. Secondly, I would expect the NYSE A/D Line to keep making
new highs. Third, we do not want to see a big fade tomorrow. We do not
want to see a lot of "bearish red popsicles" and a big drop by our Closing
Power.
Fourth, we want to see that DJI breakout above 25150 this coming week
on rising volume. Fifth, we do not want to see usual weakness in the big
banks, especially GS and JPM. 2008 showed us that the big banks are
inclined to over-reach themselves and use way too much leverage, with
devastating results.
Charts 6/1/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
6/1/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/601/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/601/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 06/01/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF. IWM, RETL, TECL and OIL are the strongest,
based on ITRS. FAS and GS are weak.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 246.36 2.18 247.37 -31.5% ---- BLUE .178 ------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7554.33 112.21 7433.85 87.4% Bullish BLUE .254 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 273.6 2.66 272.15 14.7% Bullish BLUE .296 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 172.74 2.67 169.72 94% Bullish BLUE .299 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 356.54 2 354.42 16.5% Bullish RED .103 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 163.84 1.07 161.74 55.7% Bullish ---- .225 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 65.8 1.63 66.94 -131% ---- ---- .157 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.12 .57 37.33 -44.1% Bullish BLUE .11 .146
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 176.28 11.07 168.82 345.6% Bullish BLUE .311 -.049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 143.1 7.15 135.56 268% Bullish BLUE .322 .107
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 109.84 1.39 107.56 116% Bullish BLUE .201 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.49 -.61 123.21 -44.6% Bullish RED -.111 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.06 -.09 27.1 -202.5% Bullish RED .003 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.69 -.18 21.38 -75.9% Bullish RED .113 .207
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.14 -.39 34.6 -207.1% ---- RED -.011 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.8 .04 24.8 24.2% Bearish ---- -.285 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.93 -.58 101.9 21% Bullish BLUE .016 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.21 -.78 50.5 -6.9% ---- RED .004 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.86 0 7.06 -50.4% ---- ---- .037 .104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 33.11 1.21 32.9 -15.6% Bullish BLUE .251 -.135
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.4 .29 21.27 -9.4% ---- BLUE .124 -.08
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 190.24 3.37 188.58 55.6% Bullish BLUE .232 .112
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1119.5 34.51 1075.66 187.5% Bullish BLUE .235 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 100.79 1.95 98.36 125.9% Bullish BLUE .305 .091
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1641.54 11.92 1610.15 119% Bullish BLUE .273 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 193.99 2.21 184.92 215.3% Bullish BLUE .277 .146
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 257.62 5.43 249.28 198.5% Bullish BLUE .209 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 356.72 4.56 360.09 -32% Bullish BLUE .149 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 228.35 2.47 235.01 -168% Bearish ---- -.096 -.127
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.35 .8 186.85 5.4% Bullish BLUE .15 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.52 1.61 155.85 -134.9% ---- BLUE .033 -.014
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180601
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 335 Bullish
NEWLOWS 57
MAXCP 144 Net Bullish
MINCP 121
TTTNH 158 Bullish
TTTNL 133
FASTUP 125 Net Bullish
FASTDOWN 112
CPCROSSA 106 Bullish
CPCROSSD 62
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 9
ACCUMVER 20
HIGHIP21 83
HIUPPCT 137
VHIP21 29
LOWACCUM 395
REDSELL 167
AUGSELS7 12
TRAPDOOR 26
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180601
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 144 92 64 %
NIFTY 29 10 34 %
EDU 7 2 29 %
TRANSP 20 5 25 %
COAL 9 2 22 %
SOFTWARE 65 14 22 %
REGBANKS 32 6 19 %
NASD-100 89 16 18 %
HACKERS 24 4 17 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
DOWJONES 30 4 13 %
RETAIL 53 7 13 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
INDEXES 195 21 11 %
SP-100 96 11 11 %
FINANCE 91 9 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
BIOTECH 380 34 9 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
FIDSTKS 188 17 9 %
REIT 172 16 9 %
RUS-1000 824 75 9 %
SP500 480 42 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
ELECTRON 176 11 6 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
OILGAS 133 5 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180601
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 121 27 22 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
OILGAS 133 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 824 16 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
BIOTECH 380 3 1 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 188 1 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 480 6 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
6/1/18
Bullish = 34
Bearish = 12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .906 .912 .93 .854 .837 .808
COAL .888 .888 .888 .888 .777 .777
OILGAS .781 .796 .804 .759 .744 .789
SOFTWARE .753 .646 .646 .615 .646 .63
NIFTY .724 .655 .689 .62 .689 .655
GUNS .722 .722 .611 .611 .555 .555
REGBANKS .718 .625 .687 .625 .718 .75
EDU .714 .714 .857 .714 .857 1
HOSPITAL .714 .571 .857 .571 .714 .571
SEMI .71 .585 .648 .609 .656 .585
HACKERS .708 .666 .666 .708 .708 .666
BONDFUND .702 .756 .666 .648 .369 .315
GAMING .678 .678 .678 .607 .642 .678
INFRA .676 .617 .647 .47 .558 .588
GREEN .666 .633 .7 .6 .666 .666
ELECTRON .653 .551 .607 .579 .607 .579
COMPUTER .652 .565 .652 .652 .695 .608
INDEXES .646 .584 .635 .558 .661 .656
INDMATER .635 .611 .6 .529 .6 .647
RETAIL .622 .603 .735 .622 .641 .641
NASD-100 .617 .573 .606 .516 .595 .584
COMODITY .607 .66 .642 .535 .607 .642
TRANSP .6 .6 .65 .65 .7 .7
CHEM .596 .58 .596 .58 .629 .596
BIOTECH .592 .555 .581 .536 .56 .565
RUS-1000 .581 .557 .611 .527 .599 .601
BIG17 .565 .521 .543 .478 .5 .521
FINANCE .56 .527 .527 .406 .56 .571
SP-100 .552 .552 .604 .489 .604 .593
DJI-13 .538 .538 .615 .538 .615 .615
DOWJONES .533 .5 .6 .5 .6 .6
SP500 .531 .491 .56 .456 .558 .568
MILITARY .526 .5 .552 .473 .552 .578
FIDSTKS .515 .468 .526 .43 .553 .563
N=34
================================================================================================
GOLD .5 .5 .54 .46 .56 .62
================================================================================================-
SOLAR .476 .619 .761 .619 .714 .714
HOMEBLDG .47 .47 .529 .47 .411 .352
AUTO .461 .435 .41 .307 .435 .487
CHINA .451 .5 .483 .387 .451 .419
FOOD .444 .555 .666 .555 .777 .666
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .428
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .45 .4 .4 .45
UTILITY .38 .547 .571 .547 .571 .523
INSURANC .322 .258 .322 .322 .322 .322
JETS .3 .4 .3 .3 .5 .4
ETFS .278 .245 .245 .163 .262 .344
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 0 .285 .285
N= 12
|
====================================================================
5/31/2018 Last
night, I warned that we are still in a period of time when big sellers
are quick to sell heavily into one-day rallies that otherwise might look very
good. That was certainly true today. I see no reason to expect that
pattern to change. Respect our Sell S9v. Stay short DIA.
Let's watch the 10-day ma of NYSE Down (red) and Up (blue) Volume
on our DJI chart along with the very important NYSE A/D Line and the
DJI's 65-dma. The ADL can hold up for some time. But eventually
it falls back sharply if the DJI drops more than 10% from its high or the
ADL breaks its uptrend.
Now that we have reached June, I would not exect the DJI to get past
its upper 3% band. Since 1965, Junes have brought declines 54% of the
time and the next two weeks bring declines 52% of the time.
Trump's announcement of new steel and aluminum tariffs ostensibly
sparked today's sell-off. But NYSE Down-volume swamped Up-volume
so badly (7 to 1), I think that we must worry about what is not yet in the news
that is causing all this selling.
Apart from the obvious, that the market has risen a long time and profit-taking
must be expected, my guess is that millions of American consumers are getting to
to the point where they are "tapped out" and they cannot borrow any more.
That leaves the big Banks with one main way to make money, namely by
short-term trading with their Depositors' funds. This will not end well and it
explains the extreme volatility without follow-through.
Perhaps, this fear of a tapped-out Consumer is the main fear underlying
the decline by RETL today. Watch to see if RETL's Closing Power breaks its
uptrend. That would be a sign that the economy will be slowing down. Goods
that cannot be sold here will also not so easily be sold overseas as Trump's
trade wars escalate.
We could hedge by buying IWM, which represents smaller stocks. But because
the DJI fell quickly back below its 65-dma, I would prefer not to buy IWM or
Crude Oil.
There is another characteristic of late-stage bull market that we might be
able to profitably play. Late-stage breakouts attract a much higher percentage of
aggessive performance-minded funds. Stocks with flat tops that have big
short positions are particularly likely to make spectacular advances. Look
at MADRIGAL PHAR's +100% jump today among our Bullish MAXCPs.
I will create a directory of heavily short stocks this weekend to see if we
can find any others like Madrigal. See also in its chart how the tip-off of a
big rally was how it kept rising on days when the DJI declined. This we call
Asymmetrical buying. Compare the magenta line with the blue line. We theorize
that when the magenta line is stronger in heavily shorted stocks, they are nervously
covering on days the DJI falls and that causes them to rise on those days.
See more discussion in tonight's Bullish MAXCPs and in our Explosive Super
Stocks book.
See MADRIGAL here
http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/531/BULLISH.htm
|
Charts 5/31/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
Short-Term Rates
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/31/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/531/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/531/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/31/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF. IWM and OIL are the strongest.
FAS and GS are weak, as is SOXL.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 244.18 -2.52 247.91 -90.1% ---- RED .145 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7442.12 -20.33 7424.43 10.9% Bullish RED .168 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 270.94 -1.67 272.8 -44.5% Bullish RED .228 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 170.07 -.11 169.55 13.9% Bullish RED .192 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 354.54 -4.05 355.37 -8.6% Bullish RED .094 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 162.77 -1.31 162.03 24.7% Bullish RED .224 .054 (highest))
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.17 -1.21 67.51 -330.3% ---- RED .14 -.094 (lowest)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 36.55 -2.08 37.45 6.7% Bullish RED .104 .142
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 165.21 -3.66 164.76 64.4% Bullish RED .236 -.091
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 135.95 .05 135.85 -16.6% Bullish ---- .226 .043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 108.45 -.06 107.34 55.8% Bullish RED .155 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.1 -.27 123.59 22.7% ---- RED -.109 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .073 (high)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.15 -.49 28.17 -276.1% Bullish RED .018 .135
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.87 -.58 23.03 -282.4% Bullish BLUE .103 .382
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.53 -.4 35.58 -199.8% ---- RED -.001 .107
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.76 -.02 24.68 10.1% Bearish ---- -.18 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.51 -.05 101.5 62.2% Bullish RED .002 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.99 .08 50.28 111.1% ---- BLUE .029 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.86 .02 6.93 -64.7% ---- ---- .025 .12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.9 .62 33.21 -291.7% Bullish BLUE .217 -.168 (low)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.11 -.32 21.44 -86.9% Bearish RED .037 -.059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.87 -.63 188.15 -39.6% Bullish RED .221 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1084.99 17.19 1079.24 24.7% Bullish BLUE .121 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.84 -.11 98.31 9.1% Bullish RED .212 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1629.62 4.73 1603.07 86.2% Bullish BLUE .218 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 191.78 4.11 185.93 131% Bullish BLUE .239 .152
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 252.19 -.8 247.69 93.3% Bullish BLUE .171 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 352.16 -6.03 359 -98.5% Bullish RED .101 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 225.88 -3.28 236.1 -256% Bearish RED -.097 -.13 (low)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.55 -.54 187.15 -3.2% ---- RED .171 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 151.91 -3.55 157.7 -186.8% ---- RED -.018 -.002
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180531
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 144 Still bullish
NEWLOWS 84
MAXCP 96
MINCP 136 Bearish
TTTNH 122
TTTNL 169 Bearish
FASTUP 126
FASTDOWN 124
CPCROSSA 36
CPCROSSD 138 Bearish
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 28
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180531
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 96 59 61 %
EDU 7 2 29 %
COAL 9 1 11 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
NIFTY 29 3 10 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
CHINA 62 5 8 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
SOFTWARE 65 5 8 %
SP500 480 33 7 %
BIOTECH 380 23 6 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
REIT 172 8 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
ELECTRON 176 7 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
SEMI 128 5 4 %
FIDSTKS 188 6 3 %
REGBANKS 32 1 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
OILGAS 133 3 2 %
RUS-1000 824 20 2 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
MINCP 136 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180531
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 136 49 36 %
JETS 10 1 10 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
FIDSTKS 188 7 4 %
FINANCE 91 3 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
INSURANC 31 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
RUS-1000 824 26 3 %
ELECTRON 176 4 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
BIOTECH 380 5 1 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
SP500 480 2 0 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/31/18
Bullish = 33
Bearish = 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .912 .93 .854 .837 .808 .837
COAL .888 .888 .888 .777 .777 .777
OILGAS .796 .804 .759 .744 .796 .819
BONDFUND .756 .666 .648 .369 .315 .297
GUNS .722 .611 .611 .555 .555 .555
EDU .714 .857 .714 .857 1 .857
GAMING .678 .678 .607 .642 .678 .678
HACKERS .666 .666 .708 .708 .666 .666
COMODITY .66 .642 .535 .607 .642 .642
NIFTY .655 .689 .62 .689 .655 .655
SOFTWARE .646 .646 .615 .646 .63 .615
GREEN .633 .7 .6 .666 .666 .666
REGBANKS .625 .687 .625 .718 .75 .781
SOLAR .619 .761 .619 .714 .714 .761
INFRA .617 .647 .47 .558 .588 .647
INDMATER .611 .6 .529 .6 .635 .67
RETAIL .603 .735 .622 .641 .622 .66
TRANSP .6 .65 .65 .7 .7 .6
INDEXES .589 .635 .558 .661 .661 .651
SEMI .585 .648 .609 .656 .593 .593
CHEM .58 .596 .58 .629 .612 .629
NASD-100 .573 .606 .516 .595 .584 .584
HOSPITAL .571 .857 .571 .714 .571 .857
COMPUTER .565 .652 .652 .695 .652 .652
RUS-1000 .557 .611 .527 .599 .599 .608
BIOTECH .555 .581 .536 .56 .56 .576
FOOD .555 .666 .555 .777 .666 .888
SP-100 .552 .604 .489 .604 .583 .635
ELECTRON .551 .607 .579 .607 .579 .585
UTILITY .547 .571 .547 .571 .547 .476
DJI-13 .538 .615 .538 .615 .615 .615
FINANCE .527 .527 .406 .56 .571 .571
BIG17 .521 .543 .478 .5 .5 .521
N= 33
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHINA .5 .483 .387 .451 .419 .467
DOWJONES .5 .6 .5 .6 .6 .7
GOLD .5 .54 .46 .56 .62 .54
MILITARY .5 .552 .473 .552 .578 .552
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP500 .491 .56 .456 .558 .568 .57
HOMEBLDG .47 .529 .47 .411 .352 .352
FIDSTKS .468 .526 .43 .553 .558 .574
AUTO .45 .425 .325 .45 .5 .475
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .428 .571
BEVERAGE .4 .45 .4 .4 .4 .35
JETS .4 .3 .3 .5 .4 .2
INSURANC .258 .322 .322 .322 .322 .322
ETFS .245 .245 .163 .262 .327 .377
BIGBANKS .142 .142 0 .285 .285 .428
N=10
|
====================================================================
5/30/2018
Talk of the FED not raising rates next year, sent the
market up
quite a bit today. But we must be careful. We still have a Sell S9-V
as our current Peerless signal. One day up could just be false move especially
if the DJI were to go right back below its 65-dma, 150 points lower.
Bears will take heart tomorrow, I suspect, from the fact that Short-term rates
actually moved up a lot today, something that would seem to be inconsistent
with the FRB having a change of heart and becoming significantly more
dovish. Volume was lower today than on yesterday's decline. That
suggests caution, too. Stay short DIA.
Still, assuming the DJI does not turn right back down tomorrow and assuming
short-interest rates do not bearishly make a new high, it does seem the DJI's
weakness is too isolated now to bring about a big drop in the overall market
at this time. Barring these bearish developments, let me suggest hedging our
S9V-based shorts with some longs positions in IWM (Russell-2000) and
oil ETFs (UCO). This would seem to suit this schizoid market (strong breadth
and a much weaker DJI).
Watch the downtrending Big Banks stocks like GS and JPM. Their
weakness
ahead of the market in 2007 was an important early warning of coming troubles
back then. And watch Visa and Master Card to see if their bearish head/shoulder
formations are completed. The strength in the Dollar should be helping the
NYC big banks, but perhaps, their big investors are more concerned about
whether Consumer are just too "maxed out" and the EUROs weakness will
get much worse. If these possibilities do play out, I would think retailers
will top
out next. We will come back to these ideas tomorrow night.
The S9s tell us to stay short DIA, but the powerful uptrends and
key values we see in Table 1 for OIL and IWM suggest to me
we should probably be long these other two ETFs, provided
the NYSE Advance-Decline stays in its uptrends. IWM is
out-performing DIA by 4.7% over the last 50 days. OIL is
beating the DJI by 5.8% over the same period. (This is the
meaning of our ITRS value.)
In fact, just about every ETF, except FAS, is doing much better than the DJI.
The movement out of blue chips in favor of lower priced stock helped
by low short-term interest rates (below 3% for another year). The rise
in oil prices is apt to continue for the same reasons Oil was strong in
the first half of 2008. And UCO still looks very cheap. See its weekly
chart below.
ITRS
SPY + .005
QQQ + .015
MDY + .026
TECL + .027
OIL + .058
OIH + .147
RETL + .156
GASL + .416
There is something wrong with the big banks and with the DJI. But that is
not yet stopping these other ETFs, at least not yet. And now we see the
NYSE ADL making another new high along with IWM, too. I believe in Peerless
but I also believe in strong trends, especially now that the DJI has gotten back
above its 65-dma and the ADL remains in an uptrend. So, buy IWM and UCO.
Charts 5/30/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/30/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/530/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/530/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/30/18
The DJI is weakest major ETF. IWM, RETL and OIL are the strongest.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 246.7 3.25 248.63 -29.9% Bullish BLUE .231 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7462.45 65.86 7425.96 56.7% Bullish BLUE .251 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.61 3.59 273.36 0% Bullish BLUE .3 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 170.18 1.21 169.6 59.1% Bullish BLUE .271 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 358.59 5.41 355.15 52.3% Bullish BLUE .248 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 164.08 2.56 161.97 71.7% Bullish BLUE .328 .047
highest highest
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 65.38 3 68.54 -269.2% ---- BLUE .192 -.086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 38.63 1.43 36.5 415.6% Bullish BLUE .211 .156
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 168.87 3.28 163.07 254.3% Bullish BLUE .308 -.065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 135.9 2.93 136.4 94.6% Bullish BLUE .309 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 108.51 1.43 107.25 83.5% Bullish BLUE .199 -.021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.37 .18 122.54 39% ---- BLUE -.044 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.64 .67 28.68 -237.7% Bullish BLUE .067 .147
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.45 2.16 24.15 -244.7% Bullish BLUE .132 .416
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.93 .77 35.93 -156% Bullish BLUE .004 .125
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.78 -.19 24.71 34.3% Bearish RED -.087 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 102.56 -.44 101.24 87.5% Bullish ---- -.002 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.91 .41 49.87 148.7% ---- BLUE 0 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.84 -.16 6.95 0% ---- ---- .187 .1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.28 .47 33.79 -545% ---- BLUE .263 -.166
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.43 .57 21.48 -30.5% Bearish BLUE .109 -.052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 187.5 -.4 188.36 9% Bullish RED .31 .066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1067.8 7.48 1079.69 -9% Bullish BLUE .155 -.032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.95 .94 98.66 73.9% Bullish BLUE .313 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1624.89 12.02 1601.86 135.7% Bullish BLUE .259 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 187.67 1.93 186.9 104.3% Bullish BLUE .253 .084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 252.99 4.4 247.54 208.2% Bullish BLUE .218 .047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 358.19 5.71 359.21 44.4% Bullish BLUE .15 .076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 229.16 2.13 237.81 -188.3% Bearish BLUE -.069 -.13
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.09 2.09 186.67 5.9% Bullish BLUE .195 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.46 1.84 157.74 -23.7% Bullish BLUE .081 .019
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180530
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 358 Bullish
NEWLOWS 39
MAXCP 229 Bullish
MINCP 66
TTTNH 233 Bullish
TTTNL 75
FASTUP 125 Bullish
FASTDOWN 103
CPCROSSA 223 Bullish
CPCROSSD 24
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180530
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 229 132 58 %
HOSPITAL 7 3 43 %
HACKERS 24 7 29 %
TRANSP 20 5 25 %
COAL 9 2 22 %
SOFTWARE 65 14 22 %
NIFTY 29 5 17 %
RETAIL 53 8 15 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
REGBANKS 32 4 13 %
NASD-100 89 11 12 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
REIT 172 17 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
ELECTRON 176 16 9 %
INDEXES 195 17 9 %
SEMI 128 12 9 %
BIOTECH 380 31 8 %
FIDSTKS 189 16 8 %
RUS-1000 824 62 8 %
BIG17 46 3 7 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
SP-100 96 7 7 %
SP500 480 33 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
CHINA 62 4 6 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
OILGAS 133 8 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180530
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 66 20 30 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
BIOTECH 380 8 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 824 6 1 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/30/18
Bullish = 39
Bearish = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REIT .93 .854 .837 .808 .837 .767
COAL .888 .888 .777 .777 .777 .777
EDU .857 .714 .857 1 1 1
HOSPITAL .857 .571 .714 .571 .714 .714
OILGAS .804 .759 .744 .796 .819 .812
SOLAR .761 .619 .714 .714 .761 .714
RETAIL .735 .622 .641 .622 .641 .641
GREEN .7 .6 .666 .666 .666 .633
NIFTY .689 .62 .689 .655 .655 .62
REGBANKS .687 .625 .718 .75 .781 .843
GAMING .678 .607 .642 .678 .678 .75
BONDFUND .666 .648 .369 .315 .297 .225
FOOD .666 .555 .777 .666 .888 .777
HACKERS .666 .708 .708 .666 .666 .666
SEMI .656 .617 .664 .601 .601 .601
COMPUTER .652 .652 .695 .652 .652 .695
TRANSP .65 .65 .7 .7 .6 .6
INFRA .647 .47 .558 .588 .617 .588
SOFTWARE .646 .615 .646 .63 .615 .569
COMODITY .642 .535 .607 .642 .642 .678
INDEXES .635 .558 .661 .661 .651 .651
DJI-13 .615 .538 .615 .615 .615 .538
ELECTRON .613 .585 .613 .585 .59 .568
GUNS .611 .611 .555 .555 .555 .5
RUS-1000 .611 .527 .599 .599 .603 .592
NASD-100 .606 .516 .595 .584 .584 .55
SP-100 .604 .489 .604 .583 .635 .656
DOWJONES .6 .5 .6 .6 .7 .633
INDMATER .6 .529 .6 .635 .658 .682
CHEM .596 .58 .629 .612 .629 .645
BIOTECH .581 .536 .56 .56 .581 .557
UTILITY .571 .547 .571 .547 .476 .38
SP500 .56 .456 .558 .568 .566 .566
MILITARY .552 .473 .552 .578 .552 .526
BIG17 .543 .478 .5 .5 .521 .521
GOLD .54 .46 .56 .62 .54 .46
FIDSTKS .529 .433 .555 .56 .576 .582
HOMEBLDG .529 .47 .411 .352 .352 .235
FINANCE .527 .406 .56 .571 .56 .659
N= 39
============================================================================================
CHINA .483 .387 .451 .419 .467 .483
BEVERAGE .45 .4 .4 .4 .35 .25
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .571 .714
AUTO .425 .325 .45 .5 .475 .475
INSURANC .322 .322 .322 .322 .322 .419
JETS .3 .3 .5 .4 .2 .3
ETFS .245 .163 .262 .327 .377 .442
BIGBANKS .142 0 .285 .285 .428 .714
N= 8
|
|
====================================================================
5/29/2018 While it's true that Peerless shows four Sell S9 signals this
year. The last
two of these had a positive P-Indicator when they occurred and the NYSE
A/D Line remains in an uptrend despite the DJI drop today below both
its 21-day and 65-dma. The most prominent cases where the A/D Line
was this strong despite Peerless Sells occurred in 1976-1977 and
2001-2002. In these cases, the DJI did steadily erode and fell into
bear markets once the DJI had fallen more than 10% from its highs
and the long-term A/D Line uptrend was violated. Until this occurred,
the market was stuck in a special paradox, most stocks held up or went
sidewise while the DJI declined. A schizoid market is not a healthy market.
To use the language of psychology, it does not have an "integrated
personality". It is a threat to itself and to others.
Such a "clinical diagnosis" seems warranted by today's unusual behavior.
The DJI fell more than 1.5% but the ratio of advances to declines was more
than .70. When we go back and look for previous examples of these
statistics with the DJI below the 21-dma, we see they occurred most often
in the Great Depression, especially from 1930 to 1932. Until the DJI was
vastly oversold, this pair of daily key values most often was seen before
a bottom was reached by the DJI. In other words, the DJI lead the
overall market much lower despite one day's not-so-bad negative breadth
on a bleak DJI down-day. We also see this pattern in the year 2000, which
was also a period during which the DJI completed a top formation, just
before beginning a bear market that lasted until the Spring of 2003.
The Failure of the Broader Market To Decline
More Today Is Not A Reliably Bullish Sign.
Since the start if 2001, when the DJI falls 1.5% or more and the ratio of
advances to declines is more than .70, the DJI has always continued to
fall significantly further down. On this basis, we must remain guarded,
defensive and downright bearish, even if tomorrow brings a rally back to
the broken and now falling 65-dma 160 points higher than the close today.
Here are the cases:
3/1/2001 DJI fell only from 9721 to 9300.
6/21/2002 DJI fell from 9254 to 7800.
1/2/2008 DJI fell from 13044 to 11700.
2/4/2009 DJI fell from 9757 to 6500.
So, I would not on the basis of today's seemingly undue decline in the
DJI choose to cover our short sale in DIA. The DJI closed 0.8% below
the 21-day ma today. A decline to at least the 3% lower band would be
more keeping with how the DJI can reverse in here. Even a decline to
24000 tomorrow is not likely to give a reversing Buy signal. We also
want to be careful about buying now because of the possibility that
we see this year a wild DJI breakdown below the 23400-23500 support.
Will There Be A Temporary Recovery?
A "Tuesday turnaround" has become a tradition. Watch SPY's strength
after the opening. It closed at the nested support of its 21-dma and
65-dma.
Also watch Crude Oil now it has now fallen back to the support of
its rising 65-dma. A turn upwards by its Closing Power would be
a sign that it will attempt go back up to its previous highs. I've
suggested shorting TECL. The tech stocks are holding up very
well. At this point, I would cover the TECL short and look to buy
UCO if its Closing Power turns upward and breaks its recent downtrend.
See the candlestick chart of UCO (Crude Oil) below.
Charts 5/29/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/29/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/529/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/529/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/29/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 243.45 -3.92 248.18 -130.6% Bullish RED .154 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7396.59 -37.26 7378.46 1.7% Bullish RED .179 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 269.02 -3.13 272.61 -79.7% Bullish RED .218 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 168.97 -.75 168.18 16.9% Bullish ---- .209 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 353.18 -1.24 354.88 -58.5% Bullish BLUE .12 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.52 -.22 161.76 -43.8% Bullish BLUE .245 .046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 62.38 -4.56 68.98 -433.5% ---- RED .117 -.125
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.2 -.13 35.57 -54.2% Bullish BLUE .093 .116
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 165.59 -3.23 160.5 237.7% Bullish RED .29 -.111
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 132.97 -2.59 133.35 -39.2% Bullish RED .253 -.029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.08 -.48 106.72 32.7% Bullish BLUE .137 -.028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.19 -.02 122.41 28.9% ---- BLUE -.054 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.97 -.13 28.97 -445.8% Bullish BLUE .012 .122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.29 -.09 24.57 -978.3% Bullish BLUE .091 .204
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.16 -.44 36.03 -262.4% Bullish RED -.03 .118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.97 .17 24.61 70.9% ---- ---- -.005 .08
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 103 1.1 100.78 107.7% Bullish BLUE -.013 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.5 0 49.42 126.3% Bearish BLUE -.075 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 7 -.06 6.84 202.9% ---- RED .206 .118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 30.81 -2.09 34.89 -675.7% Bearish RED .174 -.182
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.86 -.41 21.56 -179.3% Bearish RED -.003 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 187.9 -.68 187.16 7.2% Bullish BLUE .311 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1060.32 -15.34 1069.73 -89.4% Bullish RED .068 -.044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.01 -.35 97.5 20.9% Bullish BLUE .211 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1612.87 2.72 1581.4 85.9% Bullish BLUE .161 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 185.74 .82 183.8 33.7% Bullish BLUE .173 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 248.59 -.69 242.7 88.3% Bullish RED .171 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 352.48 -7.61 355.02 -159.1% Bullish RED .081 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 227.03 -7.98 238 -225.2% Bearish RED -.158 -.129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185 -1.85 186.87 -127.8% Bearish RED .127 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.62 -2.23 156.2 -168.5% Bullish RED .041 .005
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180529
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 157
NEWLOWS 93
MAXCP 145
MINCP 97
TTTNH 143
TTTNL 164
FASTUP 89
FASTDOWN 163
CPCROSSA 106
CPCROSSD 149
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 14
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180529
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 145 69 48 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
NIFTY 29 3 10 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
ELECTRON 176 11 6 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
SOFTWARE 65 4 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
INDMATER 85 3 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
BIOTECH 380 13 3 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
OILGAS 133 4 3 %
RUS-1000 824 21 3 %
BIG17 46 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
REIT 174 4 2 %
SP-100 96 2 2 %
SP500 480 10 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180529
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 97 33 34 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
ETFS 61 8 13 %
INSURANC 31 4 13 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
FIDSTKS 189 11 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
FINANCE 91 5 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REGBANKS 32 1 3 %
RUS-1000 824 21 3 %
SP-100 96 3 3 %
SP500 480 13 3 %
BIOTECH 380 9 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
OILGAS 133 1 1 %
|
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/29/18
Bullish = 29
Bearish = 17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL .888 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777
REIT .856 .839 .81 .839 .77 .764
OILGAS .759 .744 .796 .819 .812 .849
EDU .714 .857 1 1 1 1
HACKERS .708 .708 .666 .666 .666 .708
COMPUTER .652 .695 .652 .652 .695 .695
TRANSP .65 .7 .7 .6 .6 .7
BONDFUND .648 .369 .315 .297 .216 .225
REGBANKS .625 .718 .75 .781 .843 .812
RETAIL .622 .641 .622 .641 .641 .735
NIFTY .62 .689 .655 .655 .62 .689
SOLAR .619 .714 .714 .761 .714 .809
SEMI .617 .664 .601 .601 .601 .609
SOFTWARE .615 .646 .63 .615 .569 .615
GUNS .611 .555 .555 .555 .5 .5
GAMING .607 .642 .678 .678 .75 .75
GREEN .6 .666 .666 .666 .633 .733
ELECTRON .585 .613 .585 .59 .568 .556
CHEM .58 .629 .612 .629 .645 .645
HOSPITAL .571 .714 .571 .714 .714 .857
INDEXES .564 .661 .661 .651 .641 .666
FOOD .555 .777 .666 .888 .777 .666
UTILITY .547 .571 .547 .476 .38 .333
DJI-13 .538 .615 .615 .615 .538 .615
BIOTECH .536 .56 .56 .581 .557 .539
COMODITY .535 .607 .642 .642 .678 .642
INDMATER .529 .6 .635 .658 .682 .694
RUS-1000 .527 .599 .599 .603 .591 .626
NASD-100 .516 .595 .584 .584 .55 .573
N=29
=============================================================================================
DOWJONES .5 .6 .6 .7 .633 .633
=============================================================================================
SP-100 .489 .604 .583 .635 .645 .635
BIG17 .478 .5 .5 .521 .521 .5
MILITARY .473 .552 .578 .552 .526 .552
HOMEBLDG .47 .411 .352 .352 .235 .47
INFRA .47 .558 .588 .617 .588 .705
GOLD .46 .56 .62 .54 .48 .52
SP500 .456 .558 .568 .566 .564 .593
FIDSTKS .433 .555 .56 .576 .576 .576
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .571 .714 .714
FINANCE .406 .56 .571 .56 .648 .593
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .4 .35 .25 .35
CHINA .387 .451 .419 .467 .483 .483
AUTO .325 .45 .5 .475 .475 .6
INSURANC .322 .322 .322 .322 .387 .451
JETS .3 .5 .4 .2 .3 .4
ETFS .163 .262 .327 .377 .442 .426
BIGBANKS 0 .285 .285 .428 .714 .285
N=17
|
====================================================================
====================================================================
5/25/2018 Peerless shows a fourth Sell S9. This is too reminscent of
tops before
major declines in 1929, 1973, 1982, 1987, 2000 and 2008 to be taken
lightly. We can fuss about whether I should tinker with the exact parameters
to keep them in synch with the market's narrowing upward volatility, but
we cannot escape that the bull market is quite old and therefore becomes
that much vulnerable to any negative hints, rumors, scandals or bearish earning
suprises. Stay short DIA and TECL. The only long position in ETFs that
we now have is UCO. If the Closing Power breaks its uptrend, sell UCO.
Shorting some of our bearish MINCPs is also suggested.
Four S9s and a Dangerously Flat Support
Cannot Be Seen Positively. It will take a
big surge in the IP21 or P-I to reverse the
the S9V with a Buy B4. More likely, we will
see another test of 23400-23500.
It's true that three of these S9S took place at narrowed bands than we
are used to. But the market's history since 2012 shows the DJI rallyng
to narrower bands when it finds itself in a trading range. I started seeing
and taking note of this with the two Sell S12s in 2017. "LA/MA" is the
DJI closing price divided by the 21-dma. So, our recent close more than
2.351% above the 21-day ma is probably significant.
LA/MA
GAIN
------------------------------------------------------------
9/19/2014 S17 1.011
.066
5/19/2015 S12 1.013
.144
7/16/2015 S12 1.014
.135
....
1/30/2018 S9 1.013
.072
2/27/2018 S9 1.01
.048
4/17/2018 S9 1.023
.035
5/21/2018 S9 1.024
?
It was the negative V-Indicator that gives us the Sell S9V.
This and the frequently heavier Down Volume than Up Volume
shows us that big sellers are getting out of their big blue chips.
To some extent they are puting their funds into smaller stocks.
They tried to run up Oil Stocks and ETFs, but Friday that balloon
was apparently punctured.
In 2008, when Oil broke down, the market as a whole turned down.
That could happen now. So, we must watch it closely. A continued
deterioration by price, the Tiger Accumulation and Closing Power
indexes would be quite bearish for it and the general market.
At this stage UCO does not show the same weakness that OIL
did at its top in 2008.
UCO - Crude Oil appears now not to have yet topped out.
Fighting against a stock breakdown now and before the Fall Election
is Larry Kudlow, the President's Chief Economic Advisor and long-time
stock commentator on TV. It's clear the Administration wants to hold
the stock market up. They have pressured the Fed to talk less hawkishly
and the Russians to produce more oil. Trump has also suggested more tax
cuts.
But the selling in Blue Chips is quite real, the bull market is very old
and traders who bought when Trump, a la Coolidge, was elected knowing
his polcies would drive up the market are selling now that higher corporate profits
are comin out.
We should avoid the long side at this stage out of respect for the
dangers represented by the four S9s. We sold our speculative oil
stocks. I think we should just hold UCO (oil ETF) since its Accumulation
Index is still quite positive and it should find support not far below.
While we are awaiting for a Buy signal, I've suggested shorting DIA
and TECL provided it does not breakout above its head/shoulders
pattern.
Studying the history of S9Vs shows that this signal and the subsequent
weakness in the DJI can over-ride a broad market advance, though the
broader market as measured by the A/D Line can avoid declining for a
a month or two. This is what happened in 2002 and 2011.
2002 - S9V-like conditions
2011 S9Vs
Charts 5/25/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/25/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/525/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/525/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/25/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.37 -.54 249.94 7.4% Bullish RED .215 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7433.85 9.42 7394.04 53.8% Bullish BLUE .167 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.15 -.65 273.37 15% Bullish ---- .253 -.004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.72 .17 168.4 67% Bullish BLUE .171 -.004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 354.42 -.95 357.34 7.7% Bullish BLUE .127 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.74 -.29 162.94 -4% Bullish ---- .235 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.94 -.57 68.28 11.8% Bullish RED .213 -.07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.33 -.12 37.6 13.6% Bullish BLUE .1 .119
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 168.82 4.06 157.84 493% Bullish BLUE .258 -.111
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 135.56 -.29 134.03 179.8% Bullish ---- .227 -.031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.56 .22 106.38 -11.2% Bullish ---- .135 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.21 -.38 122.48 32.6% Bearish RED -.041 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.1 -1.07 29.51 -376.9% ---- RED -.014 .133
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.38 -1.65 25.95 -676.1% ---- RED .053 .242
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.6 -.98 36.03 -139.5% Bullish RED -.031 .129
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.8 .12 24.62 32.5% Bearish ---- -.059 .059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.9 .4 100.82 56.9% ---- BLUE -.098 .001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.5 .22 49.24 152.3% Bearish BLUE -.042 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 7.06 .13 6.72 189.8% Bullish BLUE .239 .086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.9 -.31 35.41 -250.1% Bullish BLUE .248 -.138
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.27 -.17 21.63 -18.6% Bearish ---- .028 -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.58 .43 187.63 60.5% Bullish BLUE .296 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1075.66 -3.58 1079.58 43.3% Bullish RED .062 -.058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.36 .05 97.6 102.4% Bullish BLUE .202 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1610.15 7.08 1585.46 112.6% ---- BLUE -.005 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 184.92 -1.01 184.49 60.6% Bullish RED .112 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 249.28 1.59 244.24 68% Bullish BLUE .162 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 360.09 1.09 363.92 123.9% Bullish BLUE .124 .098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 235.01 -1.09 237.7 -41.9% Bearish BLUE -.14 -.112
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.85 -.3 189.79 -15.2% ---- BLUE .176 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.85 -1.85 158.92 4.5% Bullish RED .033 .015
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180525
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 174 Bullish
NEWLOWS 38
MAXCP 103 Bullish Professionals
MINCP 67
TTTNH 119 Bullish Day Traders
TTTNL 82
FASTUP 82
FASTDOWN 123 Swing-Traders are bearish.
CPCROSSA 70 Bullish Professionals
CPCROSSD 42
BIGVOLUP 1
BIGVODN 14 Bearish Dumping continues
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180525
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 103 56 54 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
TRANSP 20 3 15 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
NIFTY 29 4 14 %
HACKERS 24 3 13 %
SOFTWARE 65 8 12 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
NASD-100 89 8 9 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
BIOTECH 380 21 6 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
ELECTRON 176 8 5 %
SEMI 128 7 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
INDMATER 85 3 4 %
RUS-1000 824 34 4 %
SP500 480 21 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 5 3 %
REGBANKS 32 1 3 %
BIG17 46 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
REIT 174 3 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180525
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 67 16 24 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
INDMATER 85 3 4 %
BIOTECH 380 11 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
RUS-1000 824 5 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 480 1 0 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/25/18
Bullish = 36
Bearish = 9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 1 1 1 1 1
REIT .839 .81 .839 .77 .758 .683
COAL .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777
FOOD .777 .666 .888 .777 .666 .666
OILGAS .744 .796 .819 .812 .849 .834
REGBANKS .718 .75 .781 .843 .812 .718
HOSPITAL .714 .571 .714 .714 .857 .857
SOLAR .714 .714 .761 .714 .809 .809
HACKERS .708 .666 .666 .666 .708 .75
TRANSP .7 .7 .6 .6 .7 .6
COMPUTER .695 .652 .652 .695 .695 .652
NIFTY .689 .655 .655 .62 .689 .655
GREEN .666 .666 .666 .633 .733 .633
SEMI .664 .601 .601 .601 .609 .57
INDEXES .661 .661 .651 .641 .656 .615
SOFTWARE .646 .63 .615 .569 .615 .646
GAMING .642 .678 .678 .75 .75 .75
RETAIL .641 .622 .641 .641 .698 .679
CHEM .629 .612 .629 .645 .645 .629
DJI-13 .615 .615 .615 .538 .615 .538
ELECTRON .613 .585 .59 .568 .551 .539
COMODITY .607 .642 .642 .678 .66 .607
SP-100 .604 .583 .635 .645 .625 .541
DOWJONES .6 .6 .7 .633 .633 .566
INDMATER .6 .635 .658 .682 .694 .682
RUS-1000 .599 .599 .603 .591 .623 .569
NASD-100 .595 .584 .584 .55 .573 .539
UTILITY .571 .547 .476 .38 .333 .333
BIOTECH .56 .56 .581 .557 .534 .568
FINANCE .56 .571 .56 .648 .593 .516
GOLD .56 .62 .54 .48 .5 .46
INFRA .558 .588 .617 .588 .705 .676
SP500 .558 .568 .566 .564 .589 .537
FIDSTKS .555 .56 .576 .576 .571 .513
GUNS .555 .555 .555 .5 .5 .5
MILITARY .552 .578 .552 .526 .552 .526
N=36
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIG17 .5 .5 .521 .521 .5 .565
JETS .5 .4 .2 .3 .4 .3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHINA .451 .419 .467 .483 .483 .419
AUTO .45 .5 .475 .475 .575 .5
PIPELINE .428 .428 .571 .714 .714 .571
HOMEBLDG .411 .352 .352 .235 .47 .235
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .35 .25 .35 .35
BONDFUND .369 .315 .297 .216 .225 .198
INSURANC .322 .322 .322 .387 .451 .322
BIGBANKS .285 .285 .428 .714 .285 .142
ETFS .262 .327 .377 .442 .426 .36
N=9
|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/24/2018 With a fourth Sell S9V operative, it is seems best to
avoid most
long positions despite the probability of a rally around the
Memorial Day weekend.
Trump has hinted that he will seek another tax cut from
Congress
and the Fed is saying there is not much Inflation (and thus no need
to further raise interest rates) right now. If Oil Prices fall back, they
may be right. That still seems to depend on the Middle Eastern
calming down after Trump has said he would not abide by the Iranian
de-nuclearization deal reached by the Obama Presidency.
Coupled with the bullish Holiday seasonality, we will probably be seeing
another test of the 2.4% upper band (25100) resistance in the DJI and
the resistance levels shown below in SPY, QQQ and TECL. I would
relax and enjoy the 3-day weekend. Next week we will see how convincing
the rally looks based on all our indicators.
Have a most pleasant Memorial Day weekend.
.
Charts 5/24/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/24/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/524/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/524/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/24/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.91 -.72 247 3.4% Bullish RED .242 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7424.43 -1.53 7354.34 28.4% Bullish BLUE .18 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.8 -.56 271.33 14.5% Bullish RED .271 -.009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.55 -.05 167.46 36.2% Bullish ---- .204 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 355.37 .22 353.87 11.1% Bullish BLUE .151 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 162.03 .06 161.87 11.4% Bullish BLUE .253 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.51 -1.03 66.78 -23.5% Bullish RED .207 -.068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.45 .95 37.23 -106.7% Bullish BLUE .113 .096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 164.76 1.69 153.06 156.8% Bullish BLUE .276 -.141
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 135.85 -.55 130.74 127.4% Bullish RED .251 -.034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.34 .09 107.8 -11.7% Bullish BLUE .154 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.59 1.05 122.41 50.2% ---- BLUE -.001 -.017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.17 -.51 29.28 -221% Bullish RED .016 .143
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.03 -1.12 24.69 -490.6% Bullish ---- .066 .237
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.58 -.35 35.6 -34.8% Bullish ---- .052 .154
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.68 -.03 24.64 18.3% ---- ---- -.034 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.5 .26 100.75 56.6% Bearish ---- -.12 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.28 .41 48.99 131.8% Bearish BLUE -.024 .001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.93 -.02 6.8 273.1% Bullish RED .195 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 33.21 -.58 34.62 -177.6% Bullish RED .259 -.119
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.44 -.04 21.35 18.6% Bearish BLUE .083 -.058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.15 -.21 186.31 31% Bullish RED .28 .054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1079.24 -.45 1066.36 3% Bullish BLUE .108 -.061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.31 -.35 96.36 109.5% Bullish RED .205 .047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1603.07 1.21 1574.37 67.2% Bullish BLUE .037 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 185.93 -.97 182.68 58.9% Bullish ---- .146 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 247.69 .15 245.94 -.4% Bullish BLUE .174 -.004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 359 -.21 351.23 209.5% Bullish BLUE .112 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 236.1 -1.71 237 -63% Bearish RED -.123 -.107
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.15 .48 187.42 48.6% ---- BLUE .248 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 157.7 -.04 155.71 128.2% Bullish BLUE .069 .034
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180524
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 198 Bullish
NEWLOWS 46
MAXCP 116 Bullish
MINCP 77
TTTNH 114
TTTNL 119 Watch out for "fades".
FASTUP 88
FASTDOWN 94 Bearish.
CPCROSSA 55
CPCROSSD 45
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 9
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180524
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
===============================================================
MAXCP 116 66 57 %
NIFTY 29 5 17 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
SOFTWARE 65 9 14 %
HACKERS 24 3 13 %
NASD-100 89 9 10 %
TRANSP 20 2 10 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
BIOTECH 380 24 6 %
FIDSTKS 189 12 6 %
INSURANC 31 2 6 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
REIT 174 9 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
SP500 480 24 5 %
BIG17 46 2 4 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
RUS-1000 824 35 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
INDEXES 195 4 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
MINCP 77 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180524
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 77 20 26 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 380 11 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 3 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 133 1 1 %
RUS-1000 824 6 1 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 480 1 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/24/18
Bullish = 36
Bearish = 9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 1 1
REIT .81 .839 .77 .758 .683 .655
OILGAS .796 .819 .812 .849 .834 .864
COAL .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .777
REGBANKS .727 .757 .848 .818 .696 .757
SOLAR .714 .761 .714 .809 .809 .857
TRANSP .7 .6 .6 .7 .65 .65
GAMING .678 .678 .75 .75 .75 .75
FOOD .666 .888 .777 .666 .666 .555
GREEN .666 .666 .633 .733 .633 .633
HACKERS .666 .666 .666 .708 .75 .708
INDEXES .656 .651 .641 .656 .61 .641
NIFTY .655 .655 .62 .689 .655 .689
COMPUTER .652 .652 .695 .695 .652 .695
COMODITY .642 .642 .678 .66 .589 .553
INDMATER .635 .658 .682 .694 .682 .694
SOFTWARE .63 .615 .569 .615 .646 .63
RETAIL .622 .641 .641 .698 .679 .698
GOLD .62 .54 .48 .5 .42 .44
DJI-13 .615 .615 .538 .615 .538 .538
CHEM .612 .629 .645 .645 .629 .645
SEMI .601 .601 .601 .609 .562 .601
DOWJONES .6 .7 .633 .633 .566 .6
RUS-1000 .599 .603 .591 .623 .569 .574
INFRA .588 .617 .588 .705 .676 .647
ELECTRON .585 .59 .568 .551 .534 .568
NASD-100 .584 .584 .55 .573 .539 .573
SP-100 .583 .635 .645 .625 .541 .572
MILITARY .578 .552 .526 .552 .526 .5
FINANCE .571 .56 .648 .593 .516 .56
HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .857 .857 .857
SP500 .568 .566 .564 .589 .537 .552
BIOTECH .56 .581 .557 .534 .571 .555
FIDSTKS .56 .576 .576 .571 .513 .534
GUNS .555 .555 .5 .5 .5 .555
UTILITY .547 .476 .38 .333 .357 .309
N=36
===========================================================================================
AUTO .5 .475 .475 .575 .5 .475
BIG17 .5 .521 .521 .5 .565 .521
===========================================================================================
PIPELINE .428 .571 .714 .714 .571 .428
CHINA .419 .467 .483 .483 .419 .435
BEVERAGE .4 .35 .25 .35 .35 .35
JETS .4 .2 .3 .4 .4 .4
HOMEBLDG .352 .352 .235 .47 .235 .176
ETFS .327 .377 .442 .426 .36 .426
INSURANC .322 .322 .387 .451 .322 .322
BONDFUND .315 .297 .216 .225 .198 .171
BIGBANKS .285 .428 .714 .285 .142 .428
N=9
|
|
|
5/23/2018 The new Sell S9V is scary because it is the fourth
Sell S9V in a short
time. Multiple sets of S9s over six or seven months are dangerous.
So many of these S9s in only five months cannot be ignored. Nearly
all of the S9s possessed the same V-I negative non-confirmation at
the upper 2.35% band that we saw on Monday.
See the study below.
http://tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/SELLS9VS-18/INDEX.htm
There seems little doubt that we are not seeing the same upside volatility
that we used to. If I had written Peerless back in 1940, we would be using
5% bands or wider. When I wrote it originally in 1981, we used a 4% band.
When the Windows-version was written in 1990, we employed a 3.5% band.
Because many of the DJI rallied failed to tag the full upper 3.5% band, the
2006 version used mainly used closes as low as 2.4% over the 21-dma for
its Sell signals. I would guess that most of the the Sell signals since 2006
have
occured between the 2% and 2.6% band. I can report on this later. But
there is
little question in my mind that we have to use narrower and narrower
upper bands, especially later in a bull market. As the DJI approaches the
2%, I will try to remind folks of this and they may be able to sell into
strength very nicely. That would have worked well on Monday's early strength.
Right now, the DJI is 1.6% over the 21-dma. The V-Indicator remains
negative, -18. So, another move about .75% higher, to about 25075
would yield another Sell S9v. Remember that the average S9-V occurs
prematurely by about 1.3%. So by this measure, we could still see the
DJI move up to 25538. There is a bullish seasonality around the 3-day
Memorial Day weekend. (Monday honors our war veterans' sacrifices).
The average gain for the next ten trading days was zero, but the DJI did
rise 57.8% of the time since 1965. On the other hand, a failure to rally
in this normally bullish holiday period would be another bearish development.
Traders who bought expecting a rally would have to inload their positions
next week.
I think we should hold long Oil ETFs and now be looking for good short
sales among our TigerSoft MINCPs. TECL I suggested shorting last night.
It must stay below the right shoulder peak in its developing head and shoulders
pattern. See the chart below.
Independent Peerless Sell S9-Vs
like the one we just had.Totals:
Sell S9Vs: 1965-2018
Number of Trades= 17
Avg.Gain = .068 Median Gain = .06
Avg.Paper Loss = .011 Median Paper Loss = .012
Probability of a paper loss = 76.5% (13/17)
..............................................................................
No. Date Signal DJI Pct Gain Paper Loss
la/ma annroc PI PI-ch IP21 V-I
=================================================================================
1 19960809 S9V 5681.31 -.016 .016
1.031 .348 +68 (+81) .107 -.10
Flat top breakout and Buy B10 followed.
A/D Line was lagging DJI
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 19980708 S9V 9174.97 .168 .029
1.0301 .141 +2 (+7) -.025 -17
DJI rallied to 9337.97 on 7/17/1998 and fell 20% from high.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 19990630 S9V 10970.80 .029 .022
1.024 .417 64 (+44) .053 -2
DJI rallied to 11200.98 on 7/12/1999 and fell to lower band on 8/3/1999.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 20000811 S9V 11176.14 .084 .012
1.026 .265 14 (+55) -.023 -62
DJI rallied to 11310.64 on 9/6/2000 and then fell below lower band, 12% below peak.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 20020517 S9V 10353.08 .209 none
1.0283 .175 48 (+15) -.018 -148
DJI fell directly into a bear market decline of 26%.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 20020812 S9V 8688.89 .086 .042
1.036 .006 204 (+18) +.087 -322
A/D Line had just failed to confirm this rally to upper band.
DJI rallied to 9053.64 on 8/22/2002 and then resumed bear market.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 20080805 S9V 11615.77 +.060 .014
1.024 .403 91 (+136) +.073 -87
DJI was already weak.
DJI rallied to 11782.35 on 8/11/2002 and then started a deep bear market.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 20090518 S9V 8504.08 +.021 .007
1.033 .54 334 63 -.005 -11
DJI was recovering from a long bear market. Different than now.
DJI rallied to 8739.02 on 6/10/2009 and then fell 7%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 20090603 S9V 8675.24 +.041 .028
1.027 .351 221 (-169) .008 -96
DJI was recovering from a long bear market. Different than now.
DJI rallied to 8739.02 on 6/10/2009 and then fell 7%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 20100616 S9 10409.46 .061 .003
1.025 -.253 12 (+2) -.013 -150
-150 -.202 -.022 ^^^^^
Chart now shows only S12, but S9V conditions met apart from weak AROC.
DJI rallied to 10450.64 and then fell quickly to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 20100726 S9 10542.43 .026 .015
1.041 .459 442 (+170) .166 -11
DJI rallied to 10698.75 and then fell quickly to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 20100809 S9V 10698.75 .04 none
1.025 .572 477 (-19) .246 -15
This is really a continuation of #12.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13 20110503 S9V 12807.51 .051 none
1.027 .412 113 (-99) .154 -47
DJI fell directly to slightly below lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 20110630 S9V 12414.34 .075 .025
1.027 .122 78 (+162) -.067 -116
DJI rose to 12724 before quickly falling 17%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 20110721 S9V 12724.41 .098 none
1.0246 .513 269 (-16) .085 -51
-51 .006 .043
DJI fell directly 17%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 20110831 S9V 11613.53 .083 none
1.031 -.267 134 (+134) 134 -151
DJI fell directly to lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 20110711 S9V 15460.92 .032 .012
1.028 .268 258 (+217) -.044 -25
DJI rose to 15658.36 before falling to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 2018 S9V 25013.29
1.024 (rounded off) .268 234 (+103) .083 -15
|
Current Index/Stocks'/ETFs' charts a little later tonight. |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/23/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 248.63 .45 247.74 13.3% Bullish BLUE .252 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7425.96 47.5 7382.47 18.7% Bullish BLUE .169 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 273.36 .75 272.01 20.6% Bullish BLUE .281 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.6 1.42 168.33 18.4% Bullish BLUE .209 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 355.15 .27 354.58 18.3% Bullish BLUE .135 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.97 .21 161.66 32.4% Bullish BLUE .245 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.54 -.44 67.83 30.1% Bullish BLUE .208 -.068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 36.5 .93 38.24 -226.1% Bullish BLUE .12 .054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 163.07 2.57 159.78 44.1% Bullish BLUE .268 -.144
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 136.4 3.05 132.45 71.8% Bullish BLUE .257 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.25 .53 107.59 -13.1% Bullish BLUE .153 -.052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.54 .13 122.36 10.2% Bearish BLUE -.001 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.68 -.29 29.46 -37.6% Bullish ---- .051 .167
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 24.15 -.42 25.48 22% Bullish RED .097 .283
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.93 -.1 35.83 1.4% Bullish ---- .083 .197
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.71 .1 24.59 30.5% ---- ---- -.035 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.24 .46 100.36 40.7% Bearish BLUE -.119 -.004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.87 .45 48.98 49.8% Bearish BLUE -.048 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.95 .11 6.56 313.9% Bullish BLUE .246 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 33.79 -1.1 34.44 -350.2% Bullish BLUE .247 -.086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.48 -.08 21.36 -46.5% Bearish ---- .097 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.36 1.2 186.99 4.8% Bullish BLUE .254 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1079.69 9.96 1078.59 -9.7% Bullish BLUE .061 -.045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.66 1.16 96.18 77.9% Bullish BLUE .205 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1601.86 20.46 1581.76 46.1% Bullish BLUE .065 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 186.9 3.1 183.76 100.8% Bullish BLUE .173 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 247.54 4.84 247.71 31.2% Bullish BLUE .172 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 359.21 4.19 344.14 259.8% Bullish BLUE .17 .067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237.81 -.19 239.1 -66% Bearish BLUE -.159 -.108
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.67 -.2 185.33 7.7% ---- RED .246 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 157.74 1.54 153.69 126.6% Bullish BLUE .063 .033
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180523
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 90 48 53 %
NIFTY 29 5 17 %
SOFTWARE 65 11 17 %
COMODITY 56 7 13 %
DOWJONES 30 3 10 %
NASD-100 89 8 9 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
BIOTECH 380 24 6 %
FINANCE 91 5 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 8 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
REIT 173 7 4 %
RUS-1000 825 30 4 %
SEMI 129 5 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
SP500 481 19 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
ELECTRON 177 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
INDEXES 195 4 2 %
OILGAS 133 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180523
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 80 21 26 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
BIOTECH 380 8 2 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
SEMI 129 2 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 1 1 %
OILGAS 133 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 8 1 %
SP500 481 3 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/23/18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 1 .857
FOOD .888 .777 .666 .666 .555 .555
REIT .838 .768 .757 .682 .658 .682
OILGAS .819 .812 .849 .834 .857 .842
COAL .777 .777 .777 .777 .777 .666
SOLAR .761 .714 .809 .809 .857 .857
REGBANKS .757 .848 .818 .696 .757 .696
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 .857 .714 .714
DOWJONES .7 .633 .633 .566 .6 .633
GAMING .678 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75
GREEN .666 .633 .733 .633 .633 .666
HACKERS .666 .666 .708 .75 .708 .666
INDMATER .658 .682 .694 .682 .694 .647
NIFTY .655 .62 .689 .655 .689 .689
COMPUTER .652 .695 .695 .652 .695 .695
INDEXES .651 .641 .656 .61 .635 .63
COMODITY .642 .678 .66 .589 .553 .589
RETAIL .641 .641 .698 .679 .698 .735
SP-100 .635 .645 .625 .541 .572 .604
CHEM .629 .645 .645 .629 .645 .629
INFRA .617 .588 .705 .676 .647 .588
DJI-13 .615 .538 .615 .538 .538 .538
SOFTWARE .615 .569 .615 .646 .63 .6
RUS-1000 .602 .59 .623 .568 .57 .574
TRANSP .6 .6 .7 .65 .65 .65
SEMI .596 .596 .604 .558 .596 .581
ELECTRON .587 .564 .548 .531 .559 .536
NASD-100 .584 .55 .573 .539 .561 .573
BIOTECH .581 .557 .534 .571 .555 .544
FIDSTKS .576 .576 .571 .513 .534 .534
PIPELINE .571 .714 .714 .571 .428 .428
SP500 .565 .563 .588 .536 .548 .555
FINANCE .56 .648 .593 .516 .549 .571
GUNS .555 .5 .5 .5 .555 .611
MILITARY .552 .526 .552 .526 .5 .473
GOLD .54 .48 .5 .42 .44 .42
BIG17 .521 .521 .5 .565 .521 .543
N=37
===========================================================================================
UTILITY .476 .38 .333 .357 .309 .333
CHINA .467 .483 .483 .419 .435 .532
AUTO .461 .461 .564 .487 .461 .461
BIGBANKS .428 .714 .285 .142 .428 .857
ETFS .377 .442 .426 .36 .426 .475
HOMEBLDG .352 .235 .47 .235 .176 .176
BEVERAGE .35 .25 .35 .35 .35 .25
INSURANC .312 .375 .437 .312 .312 .312
BONDFUND .297 .216 .225 .198 .171 .18
JETS .2 .3 .4 .4 .4 .4
N=10
|
|
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
5/22/2018 Consider
Peerless to have now rendered a new Sell S9V. This is
the fourth Sell S9 this year. In the past, such clusters have been extremely
bearish. Certainly, sell out stocks that break their Closing Power uptrends.
Take profits in the low priced oil stocks and IWM. I would suggest
selling short DIA or TECL and some of the bearish MINCP stocks.
The A/D Line is still rising. But the Hourly DJI chart shows
a bearish OBV divergence from prices and the Candle-Stick
DIA chart shows a bearish red "popsicle" and a break in its
weak Closing Power uptrend. I doubt if the now once-again
falling 65-dma will provide much support. That means another
fateful DJIA test of the now five-times tested support at 23400-23500.
A great deal will ride on this. It will likely be quite dramatic.
Four Separate S9s on Peerless DJIA Chart...
Selling and taking profits is the least we should do considering the
dreadful consequences in the past of four separate clusters of major sells
over six months or less time. Needless to say, we can always retake long
positions if Peerless reverses itself. Peerless did show it can reverse course if
necessary. Examples of this occurred in mid 1929 and 1987 when the
Fed suddenly reversed course from tightening to loosening. This only
ended up making the ultimate decline much worse.
Someone jumped the gun and sold ahead of the rest of
us. That is
becoming a disquieting pattern. We need to tighten our upper band.
Yestrday, I mentioned that we came to within about 25 or 30 points
of getting a Sell S9V. That must have been close enough for some
nervous and/or well-financed copy-cat traders. Or perhaps, it's just
Goldman Sachs' warning today about much higher interest rates and
a Trillion Dollar deficit in a few years which will prevent Congress from
stopping a big economic slide with Keynesian public works' spending.
Or perhaps, it because there is not much more Credit that can be extended
to keep consumers buying all that is being produced. Or perhaps, the
market is just in need of a 20% decline after going 8 years without such
a bout of profit-taking. Whatever, the reason, the market is now likely
to decline given the Sell S9V. A breakdown below the 65-dma will
then bring a testing of the recent lows. If prices break that well-tested
support, "watch out below"! All this could happen much more quickly
than most expect, including the Fed.
With three recent Sell S9s, we shouldn't be fussy. A
fourth Sell S9
puts the market in a dangerous situation. And
rounded off, the DJI
did reached the 2.4% upper band with the V-Indicator. What's more
if we take yesterday's key values as close enough for a Sell S9V,
then today's negative breadth clinched that Sell S9V.
The DJI may try to go higher. But the average paper loss after a Sell
S9V is not much more than 1.3 percent. So, in my judgement, we can't take
the chance that this decline could be very bad. I do not say this
lightly. Look below at what has happened in the past when Peerless
has given four clusters of Sell signals in a short span of time. Four
Sell S9s in such a short period would seem particularly bearish, expecially
now that every mutual and hedge fund could quickly start jumping on the
many leveraged general market ETFs, options and futures. The risk
here will be very high if the DJI closes below its 65-dma and probably
become huge if the 23400-23600 support is violated.
I would suggest selling out nearly all our stock positions. The tech ETFS show
the weakest ITRS. So TECL would seem to make a good short now, but
DIA should also be shorted.
The Tiger Elite Service Page will let you download the new
Peerless
adjusted to give Sell S9Vs when the DJI closes more than 2.35% over the
21-day ma with a negative V-Indicator. There will also be a new page of
monitored Stock Selections later tonight.
The Aftermath of Four Sell S9 Clusters
1929
1972-1973
1980-1981
1987
1999-2000
2007-2008
Time is running out tonight. I will post these tomorrow night.
Charts 5/22/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/22/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/522/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/522/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/22/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 248.18 -1.76 247.97 17.5% Bullish RED .156 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7378.46 -15.58 7398.3 18.2% Bullish RED .095 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.61 -.76 272.24 27.8% Bullish RED .196 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 168.18 -.22 168.98 9.2% Bullish RED .106 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 354.88 -2.46 353.85 49% Bullish RED .046 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.76 -1.18 160.92 77.5% Bullish RED .202 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.98 .7 68.13 70.8% Bullish BLUE .122 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 35.57 -2.03 38.19 -93.3% ---- RED .066 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 160.5 2.66 161.67 161.9% Bullish RED .185 -.188
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 133.35 -.68 134.49 25.6% Bullish RED .172 -.071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 106.72 .34 107.53 6.5% Bullish BLUE .117 -.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.41 -.07 122.29 -2.9% Bearish RED .003 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.97 -.54 28.9 91% Bullish RED .004 .171
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 24.57 -1.38 24.04 232.6% Bullish RED .046 .302
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 36.03 0 35.92 123.2% Bullish RED .036 .199
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.61 -.01 24.56 22.4% Bullish ---- .062 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.78 -.04 100.42 7.5% Bearish ---- -.162 .001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.42 .18 49.38 -35.5% Bearish BLUE -.067 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.84 .12 6.53 233.9% Bullish ---- .226 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.89 -.52 36.25 58.5% Bearish RED .163 -.084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.56 -.07 21.68 65.2% Bearish RED .03 -.062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 187.16 -.47 188.18 19.2% Bullish RED .204 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1069.73 -9.85 1081.77 -44.1% Bullish RED -.053 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.5 -.1 97.15 9.3% ---- RED .124 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1581.4 -4.06 1587.28 16.7% Bearish RED -.034 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 183.8 -.69 183.2 -14.2% Bullish RED .09 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 242.7 -1.54 246.01 -58.2% ---- RED .118 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 355.02 -8.9 340.97 185.1% ---- RED .082 .046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 238 .3 240.96 -74.4% Bearish RED -.243 -.114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.87 -2.92 186.38 -29.6% ---- RED .199 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 156.2 -2.72 153.8 116.5% ---- RED -.152 .026
|
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180522
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 152
NEWLOWS 39
MAXCP 36
MINCP 108 Pros are bearish.
TTTNH 64
TTTNL 104
FASTUP 109 Day Traders are still bullish.
FASTDOWN 76
CPCROSSA 40
CPCROSSD 148 Pros are switching to bearish side..
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 8
LOWACCUM 417 Lots of Big Money Distribution.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180522
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 36 23 64 %
REGBANKS 33 7 21 %
COMODITY 56 11 20 %
FINANCE 91 10 11 %
BIOTECH 380 19 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
CHEM 71 3 4 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 65 2 3 %
BIG17 48 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 4 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
INDEXES 195 3 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
REIT 173 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 825 20 2 %
SP500 481 9 2 %
MINCP 108 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
UTILITY 42 0 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180522
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 108 19 18 %
BONDFUND 111 14 13 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
BIOTECH 380 10 3 %
MAXCP 36 1 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SEMI 129 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
CHEM 71 1 1 %
ELECTRON 177 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 6 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 1 0 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/22/18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 .857 .714
REGBANKS .848 .818 .696 .757 .696 .666
OILGAS .812 .849 .834 .857 .842 .834
COAL .777 .777 .777 .777 .666 .666
FOOD .777 .666 .666 .555 .555 .555
REIT .768 .757 .682 .658 .682 .687
GAMING .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75
BIGBANKS .714 .285 .142 .428 .857 .857
HOSPITAL .714 .857 .857 .714 .714 .714
PIPELINE .714 .714 .571 .428 .428 .571
SOLAR .714 .809 .809 .857 .857 .761
COMPUTER .695 .695 .652 .695 .739 .695
INDMATER .682 .694 .682 .694 .647 .623
COMODITY .678 .66 .589 .553 .589 .517
HACKERS .666 .708 .75 .708 .666 .708
FINANCE .648 .593 .516 .549 .571 .56
SP-100 .645 .625 .541 .572 .614 .583
INDEXES .641 .656 .61 .635 .641 .63
RETAIL .641 .698 .679 .698 .716 .66
DOWJONES .633 .633 .566 .6 .633 .633
GREEN .633 .733 .633 .633 .666 .633
NIFTY .633 .7 .666 .7 .7 .7
CHEM .619 .619 .591 .619 .605 .563
TRANSP .6 .7 .65 .65 .65 .5
SEMI .596 .604 .558 .596 .581 .55
RUS-1000 .59 .623 .568 .57 .576 .552
INFRA .588 .705 .676 .647 .588 .588
FIDSTKS .576 .571 .513 .534 .544 .534
SOFTWARE .569 .615 .646 .63 .6 .63
ELECTRON .564 .548 .531 .559 .536 .514
SP500 .563 .588 .536 .548 .557 .523
BIOTECH .557 .534 .571 .555 .539 .526
NASD-100 .55 .573 .539 .561 .573 .539
BIG17 .541 .52 .583 .541 .541 .52
DJI-13 .538 .615 .538 .538 .538 .538
MILITARY .526 .552 .526 .5 .473 .473
N=36
=============================================================================================
GUNS .5 .5 .5 .555 .611 .5
=============================================================================================
CHINA .483 .483 .419 .435 .532 .451
GOLD .48 .5 .42 .44 .42 .4
AUTO .475 .575 .5 .475 .45 .4
ETFS .442 .426 .36 .426 .491 .409
UTILITY .38 .333 .357 .309 .357 .404
INSURANC .375 .437 .312 .312 .312 .281
JETS .3 .4 .4 .4 .4 .1
BEVERAGE .25 .35 .35 .35 .25 .3
HOMEBLDG .235 .47 .235 .176 .176 .176
BONDFUND .216 .225 .198 .171 .18 .171
N=10
|
==============================================================================
5/21/2018 Peerless is still operating on a Buy B9. The A/D Line jumped to a
new
all-time high. IWM, Oil stocks and Oil ETFs are the groups still favored,
judging from their high ITRS and IP21 values. See table 1.
Interestingly, tech ETFs and the biggest tech stocks are now lagging. We
do have to note that IWM's daily volume is not rising to match its breakout-
run. But its target for us is still 170. So hang on to it for now.
The DJI's big jump today took it above the 25000 round number resistance
but it missed giving a Sell S9-V by less than 20 points. A Sell S9-v will probably
come tomorrow if the DJI continues to rise. The history of Sell S9s does
allow their appearance even when the A/D Line is strong and making new highs.
Typically in these S9-V cases, where the A/D Line is making new highs, the DJI
still
moves one or two percent higher before falling to the lower band. So, we should
probably wait for the S9-V to be clinched by having daily NYSE decliners fall behind
daily advancers by 25 or more at the close after the S9-V appears.
The table below shows all the past "independent"
Sell-S9-s since 1965. (Before
1965, we can only estimate up and down volume. I define independent
Sell-S9-Vs to be those where the P-Indicator is positive and thus no normal
Sell S9 occurred. ) The probability of a paper loss is 76.5%.
Independent Peerless Sell S9-VsTotals:
Sell S9Vs: 1965-2018
Number of Trades= 17
Avg.Gain = .068 Median Gain = .06
Avg.Paper Loss = .011 Median Paper Loss = .012
Probability of a paper loss = 76.5% (13/17)
..............................................................................
No. Date Signal DJI Pct Gain Paper Loss
la/ma annroc PI PI-ch IP21 V-I
=================================================================================
1 19960809 S9V 5681.31 -.016 .016
1.031 .348 +68 (+81) .107 -.10
Flat top breakout and Buy B10 followed.
A/D Line was lagging DJI
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 19980708 S9V 9174.97 .168 .029
1.0301 .141 +2 (+7) -.025 -17
DJI rallied to 9337.97 on 7/17/1998 and fell 20% from high.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 19990630 S9V 10970.80 .029 .022
1.024 .417 64 (+44) .053 -2
DJI rallied to 11200.98 on 7/12/1999 and fell to lower band on 8/3/1999.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 20000811 S9V 11176.14 .084 .012
1.026 .265 14 (+55) -.023 -62
DJI rallied to 11310.64 on 9/6/2000 and then fell below lower band, 12% below peak.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 20020517 S9V 10353.08 .209 none
1.0283 .175 48 (+15) -.018 -148
DJI fell directly into a bear market decline of 26%.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 20020812 S9V 8688.89 .086 .042
1.036 .006 204 (+18) +.087 -322
A/D Line had just failed to confirm this rally to upper band.
DJI rallied to 9053.64 on 8/22/2002 and then resumed bear market.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 20080805 S9V 11615.77 +.060 .014
1.024 .403 91 (+136) +.073 -87
DJI was already weak.
DJI rallied to 11782.35 on 8/11/2002 and then started a deep bear market.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 20090518 S9V 8504.08 +.021 .007
1.033 .54 334 63 -.005 -11
DJI was recovering from a long bear market. Different than now.
DJI rallied to 8739.02 on 6/10/2009 and then fell 7%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 20090603 S9V 8675.24 +.041 .028
1.027 .351 221 (-169) .008 -96
DJI was recovering from a long bear market. Different than now.
DJI rallied to 8739.02 on 6/10/2009 and then fell 7%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 20100616 S9 10409.46 .061 .003
1.025 -.253 12 (+2) -.013 -150
-150 -.202 -.022 ^^^^^
Chart now shows only S12, but S9V conditions met apart from weak AROC.
DJI rallied to 10450.64 and then fell quickly to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 20100726 S9 10542.43 .026 .015
1.041 .459 442 (+170) .166 -11
DJI rallied to 10698.75 and then fell quickly to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 20100809 S9V 10698.75 .04 none
1.025 .572 477 (-19) .246 -15
This is really a continuation of #12.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13 20110503 S9V 12807.51 .051 none
1.027 .412 113 (-99) .154 -47
DJI fell directly to slightly below lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
14 20110630 S9V 12414.34 .075 .025
1.027 .122 78 (+162) -.067 -116
DJI rose to 12724 before quickly falling 17%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 20110721 S9V 12724.41 .098 none
1.0246 .513 269 (-16) .085 -51
-51 .006 .043
DJI fell directly 17%.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 20110831 S9V 11613.53 .083 none
1.031 -.267 134 (+134) 134 -151
DJI fell directly to lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 20110711 S9V 15460.92 .032 .012
1.028 .268 258 (+217) -.044 -25
DJI rose to 15658.36 before falling to the lower band.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Charts 5/21/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/21/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/521/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/521/BEARISH.htm
|
|
|
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/21/18
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.040) and highest IP21 (.228 )
as well as GASL and OIL. Absent here are tech ETFs and stocks.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 249.94 2.94 247.31 13.5% Bullish BLUE .185 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7394.04 39.7 7351.63 -11.7% Bullish RED .115 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 273.37 2.04 271.1 7.2% Bullish BLUE .214 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 168.4 .94 167.87 -40.1% Bullish RED .104 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 357.34 3.47 351.41 71.9% Bullish BLUE .084 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 162.94 1.07 159.26 115.5% Bullish BLUE .228 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.28 1.5 68.02 -44.9% Bullish BLUE .127 -.089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.6 .37 36.27 204.3% Bullish BLUE .089 .079
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 157.84 4.78 155.4 -103% Bullish RED .153 -.177
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 134.03 3.29 132.67 -96% Bullish RED .176 -.059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 106.38 -1.42 106.58 -60.5% Bullish RED .117 -.056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.48 .07 122.48 -81.8% Bearish BLUE .045 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .076
^^^^ ^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 29.51 .23 28.44 227% Bullish BLUE .092 .193
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 25.95 1.26 23.42 569% Bullish BLUE .139 .404
^^^^ ^^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 36.03 .43 35.15 122.4% Bullish BLUE .138 .198
^^^^ ^^^^^
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.62 -.02 24.5 55% ---- ---- .116 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.82 .07 100.63 -18.4% Bearish BLUE -.136 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.24 .25 49.77 -96% Bearish BLUE -.069 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.72 -.08 6.53 159.4% Bullish RED .234 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 35.41 .79 34.48 -134.8% Bullish RED .181 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.63 .28 21.28 11.7% Bearish ---- .049 -.065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 187.63 1.32 186.44 -13.9% Bullish RED .202 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1079.58 13.22 1079.23 -95.4% Bullish BLUE -.055 -.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.6 1.24 97.32 -22.2% ---- BLUE .128 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1585.46 11.09 1576.12 -50.8% Bearish BLUE -.046 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 184.49 1.81 184.32 -58.4% Bullish BLUE .078 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 244.24 -1.7 245.56 -224.1% Bullish RED .096 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 363.92 12.69 342.12 280.5% Bullish BLUE .141 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237.7 .7 241.56 -129.1% Bearish RED -.25 -.108
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 189.79 2.37 187.98 -34.4% Bullish BLUE .251 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 158.92 3.21 152.59 118% ---- RED -.122 .019
|
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180521
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 410 Bullish
NEWLOWS 53
MAXCP 113
MINCP 85
TTTNH 114
TTTNL 93
FASTUP 147 Bullish
FASTDOWN 84
CPCROSSA 69
CPCROSSD 95 Bearish
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180521
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 113 93 82 %
OILGAS 133 36 27 %
COMODITY 56 12 21 %
REGBANKS 33 7 21 %
TRANSP 20 4 20 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
GAMING 28 4 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
CHEM 62 8 13 %
HACKERS 24 3 13 %
MILITARY 38 5 13 %
RETAIL 53 7 13 %
COAL 9 1 11 %
FINANCE 91 10 11 %
SOFTWARE 65 7 11 %
NIFTY 29 3 10 %
INDMATER 85 8 9 %
INDEXES 195 18 9 %
INSURANC 32 3 9 %
RUS-1000 825 71 9 %
FIDSTKS 189 16 8 %
NASD-100 89 7 8 %
SP-100 96 8 8 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
ELECTRON 177 11 6 %
INFRA 34 2 6 %
SP500 481 31 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 380 18 5 %
REIT 173 8 5 %
SEMI 129 7 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
BIG17 46 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180518
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 85 30 35 %
ETFS 61 6 10 %
UTILITY 42 4 10 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
BONDFUND 111 7 6 %
GOLD 50 3 6 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 380 11 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 133 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 8 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
SP500 481 4 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/21/18
Bullish = 35
Bearish = 9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 .857 .714 .857
HOSPITAL .857 .857 .714 .714 .714 .714
OILGAS .849 .834 .857 .842 .834 .819
REGBANKS .818 .696 .757 .696 .666 .606
SOLAR .809 .809 .857 .857 .761 .857
COAL .777 .777 .777 .666 .666 .666
REIT .757 .682 .658 .682 .687 .797
GAMING .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75
GREEN .733 .633 .633 .666 .633 .7
PIPELINE .714 .571 .428 .428 .571 .571
HACKERS .708 .75 .708 .666 .708 .666
INFRA .705 .676 .647 .588 .588 .588
TRANSP .7 .65 .65 .65 .5 .5
RETAIL .698 .679 .698 .716 .66 .584
COMPUTER .695 .652 .695 .739 .695 .739
INDMATER .694 .682 .694 .647 .623 .6
NIFTY .689 .655 .689 .689 .689 .793
FOOD .666 .666 .555 .555 .555 .444
COMODITY .66 .589 .553 .589 .517 .589
INDEXES .656 .61 .635 .641 .63 .687
CHEM .645 .629 .645 .629 .58 .596
DOWJONES .633 .566 .6 .633 .6 .666
SP-100 .625 .541 .572 .614 .562 .635
RUS-1000 .623 .568 .57 .576 .551 .603
DJI-13 .615 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538
SOFTWARE .615 .646 .63 .6 .615 .615
SEMI .604 .558 .596 .581 .55 .565
FINANCE .593 .516 .549 .571 .56 .582
SP500 .588 .536 .548 .557 .519 .592
AUTO .575 .5 .475 .45 .4 .45
NASD-100 .573 .539 .561 .573 .539 .584
FIDSTKS .571 .513 .534 .544 .534 .56
MILITARY .552 .526 .5 .473 .473 .473
ELECTRON .548 .531 .559 .536 .514 .536
BIOTECH .534 .571 .555 .539 .526 .534
N=35
===============================================================================================
BIG17 .5 .565 .521 .543 .5 .478
GOLD .5 .42 .44 .42 .4 .56
GUNS .5 .5 .555 .611 .5 .555
==============================================================================================
CHINA .483 .419 .435 .532 .451 .548
HOMEBLDG .47 .235 .176 .176 .176 .411
INSURANC .437 .312 .312 .312 .281 .312
ETFS .426 .36 .426 .491 .409 .557
JETS .4 .4 .4 .4 .1 .1
BEVERAGE .35 .35 .35 .25 .3 .25
UTILITY .333 .357 .309 .357 .428 .571
BIGBANKS .285 .142 .428 .857 .857 .714
BONDFUND .225 .198 .171 .18 .171 .288
N=9
|
==============================================================================
5/18/2018 As
we guessed, the trade war with China has been postponed, delayed or
avoided. That is sending up the blue chip DJI-30 up sharply overnight. Boeing
should be taking off again. Grains are strong on the news. WEAT is favored
over CORN here because of its higher Accumulation and relative strength. See
below how well our blue Closing Power change of direction called the reversal
several months ago.
I'm not so sure that this delay in tariffs comes as much of a surprise. We will
see how real this news is by what happens after the big opening. But for now,
expect more from IWM (Russell-2000). It shows the highest IP21 (Accumulation)
and ITRS (Relative Strength) among the major market ETFs shown in Table 1.
UCO and the lower priced oil stocks are not done with their moves and should all be held.
It's possible the DJI will now go back to 26000. But we must now watch the
level of the V-I if the DJI closes at or above its 2.4% upper band, which is now
at 25000. The V-I now stands at -43. It is unlikely that the V-I will jump
above zero.
That should produce a Peerless Sell S9-V if the DJI does reach 25000. The other
limiting condition factor here is the speed upwards of the 21-day ma. If AROC is
above .6475, a Sell S9-V would be avoided, but the annualized rate of change of
the 21-dma is now only .024. It is important to see that a strong Advance Decline
Line
will not avert a Sell S9v, though it may limit the size of the next decline. The
best
examples of Sell S9vs occurred in 2011. Compare the current DJI chart with its
charts then. The first two did show the A/D Line making new highs. In these
cases,
the DJI's decline was limited. In the third case, the A/D Line was also lagging and
the result was a 17% drop by the DJI. See below...
2018
A DJI close at 25000 is likley to bring a Sell S9-V.
|
2011 S9-V
|
Corn
|
Wheat
|
Charts 5/18/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/18/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/518/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/518/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/18/18
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.043) and highest IP21 (.183 ).
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247 -.74 249.27 -31% ---- ---- .168 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7354.34 -28.13 7411.31 -32.8% ---- RED .099 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 271.33 -.68 272.98 -27.9% Bullish RED .163 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 167.46 -.87 169.75 -59.2% ---- RED .07 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 353.87 -.71 352.26 14.3% Bullish RED .018 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.87 .21 159.23 63.4% Bullish RED .183 .043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.78 -1.05 68.89 -193.5% Bullish RED .107 -.062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.23 -1.01 36.08 335.1% Bullish RED .077 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 153.06 -6.72 161.1 -61.2% Bullish RED .121 -.158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 130.74 -1.71 136.59 -221.8% ---- RED .134 -.036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.8 .21 107.68 56.9% Bullish BLUE .122 -.034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.41 .05 124.49 -105% Bearish BLUE -.031 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 29.28 -.18 28.2 216.7% Bullish RED .078 .207
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 24.69 -.79 23.2 491.6% Bullish RED .116 .401
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.6 -.23 35.16 115.9% Bullish RED .138 .191
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.64 .05 24.35 65.4% Bullish ---- .176 .054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.75 .39 101.19 -32.7% Bearish BLUE -.207 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.99 .01 50.19 -139.7% Bearish RED -.113 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.8 .24 6.51 168.1% Bullish BLUE .233 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.62 .18 36.36 -93.3% ---- RED .157 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.35 -.01 21.58 -34.9% Bearish ---- .004 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.31 -.68 188.15 -60.7% Bullish RED .118 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1066.36 -12.23 1100.2 -146.7% Bullish BLUE -.084 -.044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 96.36 .18 98.03 -68.9% ---- BLUE .11 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1574.37 -7.39 1601.54 -89.8% Bearish RED -.08 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 182.68 -1.08 186.64 -116.5% Bullish RED .047 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 245.94 -1.77 255.36 -171.9% Bullish RED .094 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 351.23 7.09 344.59 127.9% ---- BLUE .099 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237 -2.1 243.91 -122.5% Bearish RED -.259 -.102
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.42 2.09 191.08 -76.8% Bullish BLUE .212 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.71 2.02 155.28 27.6% ---- BLUE -.1 .022
|
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180518
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 253 Bullish
NEWLOWS 74
MAXCP 112
MINCP 95
TTTNH 113
TTTNL 102
FASTUP 168 Bullish
FASTDOWN 69
CPCROSSA 39
CPCROSSD 73
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 15
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180518
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 112 82 73 %
CHEM 62 8 13 %
OILGAS 133 17 13 %
GAMING 28 3 11 %
MILITARY 38 4 11 %
TRANSP 20 2 10 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
INDMATER 85 8 9 %
BIOTECH 380 32 8 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
BIG17 46 3 7 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
SOFTWARE 65 4 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
ELECTRON 177 8 5 %
RUS-1000 825 39 5 %
FIDSTKS 189 8 4 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
INDEXES 195 7 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
REIT 174 6 3 %
SP-100 96 3 3 %
SP500 481 16 3 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SEMI 129 2 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180518
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 95 31 33 %
UTILITY 42 6 14 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
ETFS 61 5 8 %
GOLD 50 4 8 %
BONDFUND 111 8 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 34 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 65 2 3 %
BIOTECH 380 7 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
SEMI 129 3 2 %
ELECTRON 177 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
OILGAS 133 1 1 %
REIT 174 2 1 %
RUS-1000 825 12 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 6 1 %
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/18/18
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.043) and highest IP21 (.183 ).
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247 -.74 249.27 -31% ---- ---- .168 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7354.34 -28.13 7411.31 -32.8% ---- RED .099 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 271.33 -.68 272.98 -27.9% Bullish RED .163 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 167.46 -.87 169.75 -59.2% ---- RED .07 -.006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 353.87 -.71 352.26 14.3% Bullish RED .018 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.87 .21 159.23 63.4% Bullish RED .183 .043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 66.78 -1.05 68.89 -193.5% Bullish RED .107 -.062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 37.23 -1.01 36.08 335.1% Bullish RED .077 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 153.06 -6.72 161.1 -61.2% Bullish RED .121 -.158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 130.74 -1.71 136.59 -221.8% ---- RED .134 -.036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.8 .21 107.68 56.9% Bullish BLUE .122 -.034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.41 .05 124.49 -105% Bearish BLUE -.031 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 29.28 -.18 28.2 216.7% Bullish RED .078 .207
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 24.69 -.79 23.2 491.6% Bullish RED .116 .401
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.6 -.23 35.16 115.9% Bullish RED .138 .191
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.64 .05 24.35 65.4% Bullish ---- .176 .054
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.75 .39 101.19 -32.7% Bearish BLUE -.207 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.99 .01 50.19 -139.7% Bearish RED -.113 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.8 .24 6.51 168.1% Bullish BLUE .233 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.62 .18 36.36 -93.3% ---- RED .157 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.35 -.01 21.58 -34.9% Bearish ---- .004 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.31 -.68 188.15 -60.7% Bullish RED .118 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1066.36 -12.23 1100.2 -146.7% Bullish BLUE -.084 -.044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 96.36 .18 98.03 -68.9% ---- BLUE .11 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1574.37 -7.39 1601.54 -89.8% Bearish RED -.08 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 182.68 -1.08 186.64 -116.5% Bullish RED .047 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 245.94 -1.77 255.36 -171.9% Bullish RED .094 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 351.23 7.09 344.59 127.9% ---- BLUE .099 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237 -2.1 243.91 -122.5% Bearish RED -.259 -.102
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.42 2.09 191.08 -76.8% Bullish BLUE .212 .062
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.71 2.02 155.28 27.6% ---- BLUE -.1 .022
|
==============================================================================
5/17/2018 I take the operative Peerless signal to be a Buy B9 based on the continued
strength in the NYSE A/D Line. Bullishly, though the DJI fell 55, there were
246 more up than down. Our favorites, IWM (Russell-2000) and UCO
(3x leveraged Crude Oil) were again strong. You can see how Crude Oil's
strength in boosting prospects for refiners, drillers and oil service companies.
These are the sectors we should be in, I believe. Based on classic chart theory,
we can predict IWM moving up past 172 and UCO up to 40. So, there is
still ample room for more profits there. The DJI, SP-500 and QQQ are
hobbled by overhead resistance but are not likely to decline much until
Peerless gives a new Sell signal, something that cannot easily happen until
the DJI moves up past 25100.
|
|
|
Charts 5/17/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/17/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/517/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/517/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/17/18
Traders may want to watch the Pivot-Points and sell when the
5-dma turns down as the close drops below the pivot-point.
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.033) and second highest IP21.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.74 -.23 248.54 5.6% ---- RED .166 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7382.47 -15.83 7402.88 -15.2% ---- BLUE .119 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.01 -.23 272.85 -.2% ---- BLUE .177 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 168.33 -.65 169.46 -38.1% ---- RED .073 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 354.58 .73 352.86 28.8% Bullish BLUE .041 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 161.66 .74 159.84 66.7% Bullish BLUE .175 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.83 -.3 69.43 -122.1% Bullish RED .156 -.047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 38.24 .05 34.77 576.9% Bullish RED .076 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 159.78 -1.89 155 31.3% Bullish RED .038 -.125
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 132.45 -2.04 136.71 -178.2% ---- RED .132 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.59 .06 106.58 181.4% Bullish BLUE .08 -.036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.36 .07 125 -113.8% Bearish BLUE -.027 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 29.46 .56 28.04 227.5% Bullish BLUE .095 .214
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 25.48 1.44 22.36 534.4% Bullish BLUE .085 .427
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.83 -.09 34.78 130.7% Bullish RED .252 .164
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.59 .03 24.32 47.1% Bullish ---- .189 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.36 -.06 101.41 -51.5% Bearish RED -.224 -.014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 48.98 -.4 50.38 -133% Bearish RED -.088 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.56 .03 6.58 -99% Bullish ---- .182 -.031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.44 -1.81 35.28 -86% ---- RED .126 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.36 -.32 21.5 -72% Bearish RED .019 -.07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.99 -1.19 188.59 -81% Bullish RED .092 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1078.59 -3.18 1098.26 -87% Bullish RED -.07 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 96.18 -.97 97.7 -88.6% ---- RED .113 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1581.76 -5.52 1602.91 -85.6% Bearish BLUE -.047 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 183.76 .56 186.99 -47.8% Bullish BLUE .105 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 247.71 1.7 254.53 -246.1% Bullish BLUE .123 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 344.14 3.17 342.46 1% ---- BLUE .072 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 239.1 -1.86 242.92 -89.5% Bearish RED -.229 -.097
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185.33 -1.05 190.31 -48.5% Bullish RED .176 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.69 -.11 154.86 -9.1% ---- ---- -.091 .016
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180517
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 374
NEWLOWS 90
MAXCP 152
MINCP 107
TTTNH 172
TTTNL 115
FASTUP 205
FASTDOWN 94
CPCROSSA 30
CPCROSSD 74
BIGVOLUP 7
BIGVODN 12
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180517
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 152 112 74 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
OILGAS 133 34 26 %
REGBANKS 33 8 24 %
GAMING 28 5 18 %
RETAIL 53 8 15 %
TRANSP 20 3 15 %
------------------------------------------------------
COMODITY 56 8 14 %
FINANCE 91 11 12 %
INDMATER 85 10 12 %
CHEM 62 7 11 %
COAL 9 1 11 %
INDEXES 195 22 11 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
BIG17 48 5 10 %
INFRA 34 3 9 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
MILITARY 38 3 8 %
SOFTWARE 65 5 8 %
BIOTECH 379 26 7 %
FIDSTKS 189 13 7 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
RUS-1000 825 59 7 %
ELECTRON 177 11 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
SP500 481 28 6 %
SEMI 129 6 5 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
REIT 176 2 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180517
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 107 37 35 %
BONDFUND 111 22 20 %
UTILITY 42 6 14 %
GOLD 50 5 10 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REIT 176 6 3 %
BIOTECH 379 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 133 3 2 %
SEMI 129 3 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 2 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 10 1 %
SP500 481 7 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/17/18
Bullish = 32
Bearish = 14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 .857 .714 .857 .857 1
OILGAS .857 .842 .834 .819 .796 .804
SOLAR .857 .857 .761 .857 .857 .904
COAL .777 .666 .666 .666 .666 .555
REGBANKS .757 .696 .666 .606 .606 .606
GAMING .75 .75 .75 .75 .714 .607
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
HACKERS .708 .666 .708 .708 .75 .791
RETAIL .698 .716 .66 .603 .528 .49
COMPUTER .695 .739 .695 .739 .739 .782
INDMATER .694 .647 .623 .6 .611 .6
NIFTY .689 .689 .689 .793 .724 .758
REIT .653 .676 .681 .789 .852 .869
TRANSP .65 .65 .5 .5 .55 .5
INFRA .647 .588 .588 .588 .588 .558
CHEM .645 .629 .58 .596 .564 .564
INDEXES .641 .641 .63 .692 .676 .641
GREEN .633 .666 .633 .7 .666 .7
SOFTWARE .63 .6 .615 .63 .646 .723
DOWJONES .6 .633 .6 .666 .633 .566
SEMI .596 .581 .55 .565 .519 .55
SP-100 .572 .614 .562 .635 .593 .583
RUS-1000 .57 .576 .551 .604 .608 .603
NASD-100 .561 .573 .539 .584 .584 .606
ELECTRON .559 .536 .514 .531 .508 .536
BIOTECH .556 .54 .527 .538 .498 .443
FOOD .555 .555 .555 .555 .555 .666
GUNS .555 .611 .5 .555 .611 .555
COMODITY .553 .589 .517 .607 .642 .678
FINANCE .549 .571 .56 .582 .593 .582
SP500 .548 .557 .519 .592 .58 .567
BIG17 .541 .562 .52 .5 .437 .437
DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538
FIDSTKS .534 .544 .534 .56 .566 .544
N=34
===========================================================================================
MILITARY .5 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473
===========================================================================================
AUTO .475 .45 .4 .45 .375 .35
GOLD .44 .42 .4 .56 .64 .64
CHINA .435 .532 .451 .564 .532 .532
BIGBANKS .428 .857 .857 .714 .714 .714
PIPELINE .428 .428 .571 .571 .571 .428
ETFS .426 .491 .409 .557 .524 .475
JETS .4 .4 .1 .1 .2 .2
BEVERAGE .35 .25 .3 .25 .3 .35
INSURANC .312 .312 .281 .343 .343 .343
UTILITY .309 .357 .428 .571 .595 .571
HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .411 .411 .352
BONDFUND .171 .18 .171 .288 .324 .315
N=12
|
==============================================================================
5/16/2018 My Peerless DJI chart still shows a Buy B9 to be the last signal.
Friday's Sell S15
was not allowed because the NYSE A/D Line is considered too strong. But a Sell
S9-V could occur Thursday if the DJI were to close at 25098 on the same internals as
we saw to today. So, there are about 330 points of DJI head-room. That's
not
enough to make it attractive to buy. But without a Peerless Sell, I would not short
it.
More backing and filling by the DJI would give us a nice chance to make money
elsewhere.
Our IWM did achieve a breakout above its flat resistance and could still go higher.
Hold it. This is now a market for smaller stocks and Oil stocks. That condition
could
last a lot longer than most think likely. It has been many years since many of these
stocks got attention. Interest rates are not high enough to cause them problems.
Meanwhile,
they may use their higher profits from much lower taxation to actually build up their
companies for future growth instead of just buying shares of their own stock.
Look for Still Higher Oil Prices.
The low priced oil stocks recommended may have just begun their moves. If Crude
Oil keeps rising, they would seem to have no choice but to rise a lot more. Oil's
momentum
and high Accumulation look very bullish. Aggressive traders should buy more of the
oil stocks
mentioned here. As for the leveraged UCO (below), we have already recommended it
recently. Buy more if it pulls back to its 21-day. There it should find lots
of eager buyers.
Chinese Stocks Are Going To Get The Fever!
I suspect that there will not be anything like a trade war
with China. There is
way too much advantage in mutual cooperation. This may explain the impressive
flat-topped breakout made by BIDU today.
Charts 5/15/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/16/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/516/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/516/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/16/18
Traders may want to watch the Pivot-Points and sell when the
5-dma turns down as the close drops below the pivot-point.
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.039) and second highest IP21.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.97 .66 247.46 51.9% ---- BLUE .145 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7398.3 46.67 7404.97 39.5% ---- BLUE .122 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.24 1.14 272.02 50.4% ---- BLUE .173 .001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 168.98 1.11 169.62 32.6% ---- BLUE .093 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 353.85 2.44 352.55 55.4% Bullish BLUE .029 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 160.92 1.66 159.53 70.3% Bullish BLUE .132 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.13 .11 69.51 13.8% Bullish BLUE .111 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 38.19 1.92 34.1 592% Bullish BLUE .061 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 161.67 6.27 158.79 349.9% ---- BLUE .049 -.106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 134.49 1.82 137.28 89.2% ---- BLUE .153 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.53 .95 103.73 177% Bullish BLUE .029 -.029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.29 -.19 125.18 -82.1% Bearish RED -.101 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.9 .46 28.17 136.5% Bullish BLUE .104 .183
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 24.04 .62 23 252.5% Bullish BLUE .04 .309
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.92 .77 34.91 186.1% Bullish BLUE .422 .164
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.56 .06 24.36 18.4% Bullish ---- .204 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.42 -.21 101.4 -38.1% Bearish RED -.236 -.011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.38 -.39 50.31 -23% Bearish RED -.108 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.53 0 6.69 -151.3% Bullish ---- .232 -.045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 36.25 1.77 35.05 354.4% Bullish BLUE .158 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.68 .4 21.67 130.7% Bearish BLUE .092 -.06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.18 1.74 190.04 21.8% Bullish BLUE .103 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1081.77 2.54 1097.57 -4.5% Bullish BLUE -.061 -.009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.15 -.17 97.91 10.8% ---- RED .147 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1587.28 11.16 1609.08 -64.8% Bearish BLUE -.013 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 183.2 -1.12 185.53 14.6% Bullish RED .066 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 246.01 .45 260.13 -192.1% Bullish BLUE .139 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 340.97 -1.15 344.07 -51.4% ---- RED .068 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 240.96 -.6 243.44 -15.9% Bearish RED -.21 -.094
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.38 -1.6 187.16 .5% Bullish RED .244 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.8 1.21 153.97 38.7% ---- BLUE -.083 .004
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180516
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 305 Bulliah
NEWLOWS 78
MAXCP 143 Bullish
MINCP 83
TTTNH 147 Bullish
TTTNL 91
FASTUP 180 Bullish
FASTDOWN 105
CPCROSSA 57
CPCROSSD 43
BIGVOLUP 6 Rising...
BIGVODN 7
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180516
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 143 94 66 %
GAMING 28 7 25 %
COMODITY 57 10 18 %
REGBANKS 33 6 18 %
COMPUTER 23 4 17 %
RETAIL 53 9 17 %
OILGAS 134 21 16 %
----------------------------------------------------
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
INDMATER 85 9 11 %
INFRA 35 4 11 %
NIFTY 29 3 10 %
SOLAR 21 2 10 %
TRANSP 20 2 10 %
FINANCE 91 8 9 %
INDEXES 195 17 9 %
SOFTWARE 65 6 9 %
CHEM 62 5 8 %
BIOTECH 380 27 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
NASD-100 89 6 7 %
CHINA 62 4 6 %
ELECTRON 177 10 6 %
RUS-1000 825 51 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
SEMI 129 7 5 %
BIG17 46 2 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 8 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
AUTO 39 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
SP-100 96 3 3 %
REIT 176 3 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180516
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 83 21 25 %
BONDFUND 111 17 15 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
GOLD 50 5 10 %
UTILITY 42 4 10 %
COMODITY 57 3 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 5 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REIT 176 5 3 %
SOFTWARE 65 2 3 %
BIOTECH 380 8 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 134 3 2 %
SEMI 129 3 2 %
ELECTRON 177 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 11 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 5 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/16/18
Bullish = 36
Bearish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .714 .714 .714 .428
EDU .857 .714 .857 .857 1 1
SOLAR .857 .761 .857 .857 .904 .714
OILGAS .843 .835 .82 .798 .805 .783
GAMING .75 .75 .75 .714 .607 .571
COMPUTER .739 .695 .739 .739 .782 .782
RETAIL .716 .66 .603 .528 .49 .49
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
REGBANKS .696 .666 .606 .606 .606 .606
NIFTY .689 .689 .793 .724 .758 .655
REIT .676 .681 .789 .852 .869 .835
COAL .666 .666 .666 .666 .555 .555
GREEN .666 .633 .7 .666 .7 .7
HACKERS .666 .708 .708 .75 .791 .875
TRANSP .65 .5 .5 .55 .5 .55
INDMATER .647 .623 .6 .611 .6 .576
INDEXES .641 .63 .692 .676 .641 .569
DOWJONES .633 .6 .666 .633 .566 .566
CHEM .629 .58 .596 .564 .564 .532
SP-100 .614 .562 .635 .593 .583 .51
GUNS .611 .5 .555 .611 .555 .5
INFRA .6 .6 .6 .6 .571 .514
SOFTWARE .6 .615 .63 .646 .723 .723
SEMI .581 .55 .565 .519 .558 .503
COMODITY .578 .508 .596 .631 .666 .561
RUS-1000 .576 .551 .604 .608 .601 .546
NASD-100 .573 .539 .584 .584 .606 .528
FINANCE .571 .56 .582 .593 .571 .461
SP500 .557 .519 .592 .58 .565 .488
FOOD .555 .555 .555 .555 .666 .555
FIDSTKS .544 .534 .56 .566 .544 .486
BIG17 .543 .5 .478 .434 .413 .413
BIOTECH .539 .526 .536 .497 .442 .463
DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538
ELECTRON .536 .514 .531 .508 .542 .502
CHINA .532 .451 .564 .532 .532 .451
N=36
=============================================================================================
ETFS .491 .409 .557 .524 .475 .393
MILITARY .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .473
AUTO .435 .384 .435 .358 .333 .307
PIPELINE .428 .571 .571 .571 .428 .428
GOLD .42 .4 .56 .64 .64 .54
JETS .4 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2
UTILITY .357 .428 .571 .595 .571 .476
INSURANC .312 .281 .343 .343 .343 .312
BEVERAGE .25 .3 .25 .3 .35 .35
BONDFUND .18 .171 .288 .324 .306 .225
HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .411 .411 .352 .352
N=11
|
==============================================================================
5/15/2018 My Peerless Peerless still shows a Buy B9 to be the last signal.
But a DJI move
to 25000 could well bring a Peerless Sell S9-V. That would make the fourth
Sell S9 in a short span of time. In 1929, 1972-1973, 1987 and 2000 a series
of four S9s proved remarkably bearish. So, a quick and narrow jump back to
25000 would likely be quite bearish. Is the
risk: reward ratio still low enough to
commit new money to the market? No. Well, then, should we go short?
Remember
how in 2001 the DJI rallied an additional 5% rise following an S15 with a strong
A/D Line, like now. So, let wait to go short the major market ETFs.
Traders should probably watch the points where the 5-day ma will turn down.
This is represented by our 5-dma pivot-points. Sell your ETFs if they close below
these points. Even more bearish for the DJI would be a close below its 65-dma, now
at
24554. At that point, I would have to admit that I should have simply accepted the
Sell S15 of last Friday and not be overly troubled by the rising A/D Line.
It might be that we should have simply taken Friday's Sell S15 as given and not
raised questions about the fact that the A/D Line made a new high and the P-I
was above +280 on that day. But that was not my conclusion on Sunday night.
In keeping with that, it still may turn out that today's 200-point DJI decline will
prove simply to be nothing more that normal profit-taking after 8 straight days up.
And in fairness, it has been only IWM among the major market ETFs that I
wanted us to buy based on the Buy B9 and IWM actually rose today. So another
attempt by it to overcome the flat resistace just overhead there seems likely.
IWM has the highest ITRS (Relative Strength among the major market ETFs)..
Oil prices also rose yet again. Interest rates jumped. I would buy WEAT and
CANE. Hold IWM, some bullish MAXCPs and oil stocks. Selectively shorting
the bearish MINCPs should also work out, too.
Charts 5/15/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: CANE
JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/15/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/515/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/515/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/15/18
Traders may want to watch the Pivot-Points and sell when the
5-dma turns down as the close drops below the pivot-point.
IWM stll shows highest ITRS (+.123) and second highest IP21.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.31 -1.96 245.4 78.8% ---- RED .123 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7351.63 -59.68 7339.91 57.5% ---- RED .127 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 271.1 -1.88 269.5 77.2% ---- RED .174 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 167.87 -1.88 167.88 53.4% ---- RED .11 .006
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 351.41 -.85 349.95 45.3% Bullish BLUE .019 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 159.26 .03 158.68 45% Bullish BLUE .123 .042
(second highest) (highest)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.02 -.87 67.94 174.3% Bullish RED .077 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 36.27 .19 34.04 475.3% Bullish BLUE .029 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 155.4 -5.7 150.74 353.8% ---- RED .05 -.099
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 132.67 -3.92 132.08 197.4% Bullish RED .167 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 106.58 -1.1 103.79 198.9% Bullish RED .038 -.032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 122.48 -2.01 124.33 -84.6% Bearish RED -.069 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.44 .24 28.13 151.6% Bullish BLUE .092 .17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.42 .22 22.88 344.2% Bullish BLUE .038 .234
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.15 -.01 34.62 184.6% Bullish BLUE .387 .138
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.5 .15 24.47 6.1% Bullish ---- .208 .048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 100.63 -.56 101.19 -39% Bearish RED -.17 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.77 -.42 49.61 -19% Bearish RED -.063 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.53 .02 6.73 -202.6% Bullish ---- .229 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 34.48 -1.88 33.77 245.3% Bullish RED .173 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.28 -.3 21.12 46.8% Bearish RED .102 -.089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.44 -1.71 187.36 10.4% Bullish RED .098 .061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1079.23 -20.97 1082.76 116.5% Bullish RED -.011 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.32 -.71 96.94 77.6% ---- RED .154 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1576.12 -25.42 1608 -50.8% Bearish RED .023 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 184.32 -2.32 182.66 146.6% Bullish RED .11 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 245.56 -9.8 255.78 -94.8% Bullish RED .163 .048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 342.12 -2.47 344.5 54.7% ---- RED .082 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 241.56 -2.35 241.73 94.3% Bearish RED -.278 -.076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.98 -3.1 186.36 78.2% Bullish RED .276 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 152.59 -2.69 152.61 86.7% ---- RED -.126 .016
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180515
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 187 Bullish
NEWLOWS 104
MAXCP 95
MINCP 118 Slightly more bearish are Professionals
TTTNH 95
TTTNL 146 Day Traders are bearish.
FASTUP 199 Swing Traders are bullish.
FASTDOWN 125
CPCROSSA 59
CPCROSSD 105
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180515
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 95 59 62 %
GAMING 28 5 18 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
COMODITY 56 7 13 %
RETAIL 53 7 13 %
OILGAS 134 16 12 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
BIOTECH 380 22 6 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
ELECTRON 177 8 5 %
INDEXES 195 10 5 %
SOFTWARE 65 3 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
BIG17 46 2 4 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
RUS-1000 825 36 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NIFTY 30 1 3 %
SEMI 129 4 3 %
SP-100 96 3 3 %
SP500 481 16 3 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180515
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 118 32 27 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
BONDFUND 111 14 13 %
UTILITY 42 4 10 %
SOFTWARE 65 5 8 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
GOLD 50 3 6 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
ETFS 61 3 5 %
COMODITY 56 2 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
INDMATER 85 3 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 6 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REIT 176 6 3 %
BIOTECH 380 6 2 %
RUS-1000 825 18 2 %
SP500 481 10 2 %
ELECTRON 177 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
OILGAS 134 2 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
MAXCP 95 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/15/18
Bullish = 33
Bearish = 14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS .857 .714 .714 .714 .285 .142
OILGAS .835 .82 .798 .805 .783 .791
SOLAR .761 .857 .857 .904 .714 .571
GAMING .75 .75 .714 .607 .571 .571
EDU .714 .857 .857 1 1 1
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .571
HACKERS .708 .708 .75 .791 .875 .791
NIFTY .7 .8 .733 .766 .666 .6
COMPUTER .695 .739 .739 .782 .782 .652
REIT .681 .789 .852 .869 .829 .801
COAL .666 .666 .666 .555 .555 .555
REGBANKS .666 .606 .606 .606 .606 .606
RETAIL .66 .603 .528 .49 .49 .452
GREEN .633 .7 .666 .7 .7 .6
INDEXES .63 .692 .676 .641 .569 .497
INDMATER .623 .6 .611 .6 .576 .529
SOFTWARE .615 .63 .646 .723 .723 .707
DOWJONES .6 .666 .633 .566 .566 .466
INFRA .6 .6 .6 .571 .514 .542
CHEM .58 .596 .564 .564 .532 .516
PIPELINE .571 .571 .571 .428 .428 .428
SP-100 .562 .635 .593 .583 .5 .447
FINANCE .56 .582 .593 .571 .45 .428
FOOD .555 .555 .555 .666 .555 .666
RUS-1000 .551 .604 .608 .601 .55 .523
SEMI .55 .565 .519 .558 .511 .434
NASD-100 .539 .584 .584 .606 .528 .46
DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .538 .538 .384
FIDSTKS .534 .56 .566 .544 .481 .417
BIOTECH .528 .539 .5 .444 .465 .418
SP500 .519 .592 .58 .565 .488 .453
COMODITY .517 .607 .642 .678 .571 .571
ELECTRON .514 .531 .508 .542 .508 .423
============================================================================================
BIG17 .5 .478 .434 .413 .413 .434
GUNS .5 .555 .611 .555 .5 .555
TRANSP .5 .5 .55 .5 .55 .45
MILITARY .473 .473 .473 .473 .473 .421
CHINA .451 .564 .532 .532 .419 .451
UTILITY .428 .571 .595 .571 .523 .523
ETFS .409 .557 .524 .475 .393 .377
AUTO .4 .45 .375 .35 .325 .3
GOLD .4 .56 .64 .64 .56 .58
BEVERAGE .3 .25 .3 .35 .35 .35
INSURANC .281 .343 .343 .343 .312 .281
HOMEBLDG .176 .411 .411 .352 .352 .529
BONDFUND .171 .288 .324 .306 .225 .252
JETS .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2
N=14
|
|
==============================================================================
5/14/2018 In keeping with the discussion here Sunday night about the problem
of accepting a Sell S15 when the P-Indicator is above +280 and the
A/D Line is running ahead of the DJI, I consider Peerless still to be operating
on a Buy signal. There was no new Sell today, but today's rally did look false.
So, a shallow, short-term decline after 8 days should come as no surprise.
Bearishly, there were 140 more down than up despite the DJI's 68-point
advance. IWM could not hold its intra-day breakout and gave a new red
optimized Sell. We could take profits in it, but I would prefer to hold it
a little longer. IWM's Closing Power is still rising, as its 5-dma. See Table
1.
I see no reason to sell our bullish MAXCPs.
Biotechs and sports' betting Gambling got a boost from Trump
and the Supreme Court.
Who says Government is always the problem? Buy MDGL. It just closed above its
65-dma and use a sell stop just below this ma.
The DJI closed 2% over its 21-dma with weak internals, except
for the breadth-
based P-I, which is still above +200. I expect 25000 to be more closely tested
and a new Peerless Sell will likely occur then. But I would not try to anticipate
it. The NYSE A/D Line and P-Indicator are too strong.
The next month's seasonality is not bullish. Since
1965, the DJI has risen only
48.1% of the time over the next week and only 46.3% over the next month.
The average percent change on the DJI is close to zero for the next two months.
What Has Happened in Past When Peerless
Showed Similar Key Values?
The key values that Peerless now has, apart from the still
very positive P-I, usually
produce a decline, but not below the upper 3.5% band is tagged. That, at least.
was true in 4 of 6 cases. Note that there are no matches for a P-Indicator
above +107. The P-I now shows +200. Not that we can only properly study
the period 1965-2018 because the V-I can only be estimated from 1929-1964.
Key Values Used for Matching:
DJI is 2.% to 2.4% over 21-dma.
IP21 is below +.03
P-I above 0
April-June only
V-I is negative
Not an on-going bear market
Date LA/MA
P-I IP21 V-I Outcome
------------------------------------------------------------------
6/22/75 1.02 +28 0.0
0 DJI rose slightly for 2 weeks and then fell
to lower 2.5% band.
4/27/81 1.02 +11 .026
0 DJI fell to lower 3.5% band in 2 weeks.
6/2/2000 1.022 +52 .026 -26
DJI tagged
the upper 3.5% band and then fell to lower 3.5% band.
5/14/2002 1.024 +107 -.024 -110 DJI tagged the upper 3.5% band and then fell below lower 3.5% band.
6/15/2010 1.024 +10 -.009 -147 DJI ran up to 4% band and then fell to lower 3.5% band.
4/17/2018 1.023 +72 -.105 -50
DJI fell immediately to lower 1.75% band.
current 1.02 +202 .028
-9
much higher
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/14/18
Traders may want to watch the Pivot-Points and sell when the
5-dma turns down as the close drops below the pivot-point.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 249.27 .73 243.42 119.1% ---- RED .122 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7411.31 8.43 7266.9 99.6% Bullish RED .118 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.98 .13 266.92 112.4% ---- RED .164 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.75 .29 166.07 104.6% Bullish RED .114 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 352.26 -.6 348.23 74.1% Bullish RED .025 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 159.23 -.61 157.83 68.7% Bullish RED .121 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 68.89 -.54 65.64 305.4% Bullish RED .063 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 36.08 1.31 33 424.3% Bullish BLUE .029 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 161.1 6.1 144.5 653.2% ---- BLUE .059 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 136.59 -.12 127.38 367.6% Bullish RED .164 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 107.68 1.1 102.41 225.2% Bullish BLUE .009 -.034
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.49 -.51 124.59 -3.2% Bearish RED -.101 -.023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.2 .16 27.59 156.2% Bullish ---- .079 .157
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23.2 .84 21.86 522.6% Bullish BLUE .046 .264
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 35.16 .38 33.87 205% Bullish BLUE .408 .134
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.35 .03 24.47 -6.1% Bullish BLUE .242 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.19 -.22 101.42 -19.7% Bearish ---- -.149 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.19 -.19 49.96 -104.4% ---- RED -.005 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.51 -.07 6.8 -164% Bullish ---- .205 -.056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 36.36 1.08 32.78 717% Bullish RED .201 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.58 .08 21.08 164.7% ---- RED .191 -.088
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.15 -.44 186.05 79.8% Bullish RED .1 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1100.2 1.94 1053.91 210.7% Bullish BLUE .012 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 98.03 .33 95.81 93.4% ---- BLUE .15 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1601.54 -1.37 1592.39 4.4% Bearish RED .037 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 186.64 -.35 178.92 237.6% Bullish RED .114 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 255.36 .83 250.4 131.5% Bullish RED .215 .064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 344.59 2.13 338.37 60.8% ---- BLUE .102 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 243.91 .99 237 139.5% Bearish BLUE -.278 -.071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 191.08 .77 185.04 201.6% Bullish RED .289 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 155.28 .42 149.93 179.3% ---- RED -.11 .045
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180514
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 182 Bullish
NEWLOWS 43
MAXCP 63
MINCP 127 Professionals are turning cautious.
TTTNH 91
TTTNL 124
FASTUP 230 Swing Traders remain bullish.
FASTDOWN 139
CPCROSSA 51
CPCROSSD 125 Professionals are turning cautious.
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 12
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180514
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 63 51 81 %
GAMING 28 6 21 %
OILGAS 134 22 16 %
---------------------------------------------------
COMODITY 56 8 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
BIG17 46 4 9 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
CHINA 62 4 6 %
INDMATER 85 5 6 %
INFRA 35 2 6 %
RETAIL 53 3 6 %
BIOTECH 379 19 5 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
ELECTRON 177 9 5 %
INDEXES 195 10 5 %
SOFTWARE 65 3 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
RUS-1000 825 35 4 %
SEMI 129 5 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SP500 481 11 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180511
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 127 17 13 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REIT 176 5 3 %
SOFTWARE 65 2 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BIOTECH 379 3 1 %
ELECTRON 177 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
OILGAS 134 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 8 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
SP500 481 3 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/14/18
Bullish = 38
Bearish = 8
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 .857 1 1 1 1
SOLAR .857 .857 .904 .714 .571 .571
OILGAS .82 .798 .805 .783 .791 .753
NIFTY .793 .724 .758 .655 .586 .586
REIT .789 .852 .869 .829 .801 .875
GAMING .75 .714 .607 .571 .571 .571
COMPUTER .739 .739 .782 .782 .652 .652
BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .285 .142 .142
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .571 .714
HACKERS .708 .75 .791 .875 .791 .791
GREEN .7 .666 .7 .7 .6 .566
INDEXES .692 .676 .641 .569 .507 .492
COAL .666 .666 .555 .555 .555 .555
DOWJONES .666 .633 .566 .566 .466 .5
SP-100 .635 .593 .583 .5 .447 .427
SOFTWARE .63 .646 .723 .723 .707 .723
COMODITY .607 .642 .678 .571 .571 .571
REGBANKS .606 .606 .606 .606 .606 .575
RUS-1000 .604 .608 .601 .55 .523 .529
RETAIL .603 .528 .49 .49 .49 .452
INDMATER .6 .611 .6 .576 .517 .494
INFRA .6 .6 .571 .514 .542 .4
CHEM .596 .564 .564 .532 .516 .483
SP500 .592 .58 .565 .488 .453 .461
NASD-100 .584 .584 .606 .528 .46 .471
FINANCE .582 .593 .571 .45 .428 .439
PIPELINE .571 .571 .428 .428 .428 .428
UTILITY .571 .595 .571 .523 .523 .738
SEMI .565 .519 .558 .511 .434 .41
CHINA .564 .532 .532 .419 .435 .419
FIDSTKS .56 .566 .544 .481 .417 .46
GOLD .56 .64 .64 .56 .58 .58
ETFS .557 .524 .475 .393 .377 .36
FOOD .555 .555 .666 .555 .666 .666
GUNS .555 .611 .555 .5 .555 .555
BIOTECH .54 .501 .445 .467 .419 .467
DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .538 .384 .461
ELECTRON .531 .508 .542 .508 .423 .406
N = 38
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRANSP .5 .55 .5 .55 .45 .35
==========================================================================================
BIG17 .478 .434 .413 .413 .413 .456
MILITARY .473 .473 .473 .473 .421 .421
AUTO .45 .375 .35 .325 .325 .3
HOMEBLDG .411 .411 .352 .352 .529 .588
INSURANC .343 .343 .343 .312 .281 .25
BONDFUND .288 .324 .306 .225 .243 .243
BEVERAGE .25 .3 .35 .35 .35 .4
JETS .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1
N=8
|
==============================================================================
5/11/2018 Peerless gave a Sell S15 on Friday, but there are a number of
reasons for not trusting or taking this signal. So let's continue to
be bullish and look for a breakout by IWM above its flat resistance
at 160. I will take out S15s from our Peerless Softwate that show
a P-I above 180. ESP Subscribers should be able to get the revised
Peerless tomorrow night.
Oil remains bullish, too. The number of new highs did not expand.
But there ought to be enough momentum to take DJI up more. Watch
the breadth (NYSE advances minus declines). It will need to stay very
positive to show us that rising short-term rates will not be an immediate
problem. And Watch NYSE Up and Down volume on Monday. If the
ratio of Up to Down Volume is not very good, the V-Indicator
is apt to stay negative and this could cause a Sell S9-V at 25000.
I would be inclined now to accept a Sell S9V Signal should that occur.
After all, we now see 3 recent Sell S9s.
First, the NYSE A/D Line is at a new high, far ahead of the DJI's price action.
This is quite bullish. See all the past cases of bullish A/D Line divergences
from prices in the Table below.
Bullish
Rises by ADL while DJI falls.
Bullish Divergence Outcome
August 1943 - November 1943 (B9)
DJI rose from 129.6 on 11/30/1943 to 150.4 on 7/12/1943.
July 1944 - September 1944 (B9)
DJI rose from 142.9 on 9/14/1944 to 195.8 on 12/11/1995
August 1955 - October 1955 (B5/B17)
DJI rose from 438.6 on 10/11/1955 Buy B5 and B17 to 516.6 on 4/5/1956.
November 1976 - June 1977 (B9 - 5/25/77)
DJI started a bear market in July 1977. The DJI fell sharply down as
soon as it closed more than 11% down from its highs and broke below
flat support.
November 1977 - March 1978 (B9)
DJI rose from 743.33 on 3/1/1978 to 907.74 on 9/11/1978
March 1980 - April 1980 (B8)
DJI rose from 759.13 on 4/21/1980 to 974.57 on 9/22/1980
October 1984 - December 1984 (B13)
DJI rose from 1163.21 on 12/7/1984 to 1357.97 on 7/16/1984
December 1987 - January 1988 (B9)
DJI rose from 1879.14 on 1/20/1988 to 2110.08 on 4/12/1988
February 1991 - March 1991 (B9)
DJI rose from 2879.14 on 1/20/1988 to 3035.33 on 6/3/1991
June 1991 - August 1991 (no signal)
DJI rose from 2913.69 on 8/20/1991to 3077.15 on 10/10/1991
June 1992 - October 1992 B3)
DJI rose from 3136.58 on 10/9/1992 to 3540.16 on 5/26/1993
March 1996 - May 1996 (B9)
DJI rose from 5420.95 on 5/9/1996 to 7079.39 on 3/10/1997
August 1997 - October 1997 (B19)
DJI rose from 7694.66 on 8/15/1996 to 9162.72 on 4/22/1998
October 2000 - April 2001 (B9)
DJI rose from 9485.70 on 4/3/2001to 11337.92 on 5/21/2001
But even though divergence
continued until August, the
DJI plunged as soon as it closed more than 10% down from
its highs, much like in 1977, and broke below flat support.
February 2010 - July 2010 (B8)
DJI rose from 9732.53 on 7/1/2010 to 10636.38 on 8/3/2010
May 2012 - June 2012 (B8)
DJI rose from 12101.46 on 6/4/2012 to 13610.15 on 10/5/2012.
August 2013 - October 2013 (B9)
DJI rose from 14802.98 on 10/19/2013 to 16576.66 on 12/31/2013.
December 2014 - Janaury 2015 (B9)
DJI rose from 17164.95 on 1/30/2015 to 18288.63 on 3/2/2015.
May 2016 - June 2016 (B3)
DJI rose from 17140.24 on 6/27/2016 to 18595.03 on 7/20/2016.
February 2018 - March 2018 (B19 and later B9)
DJI rose
from 23533.2 on 3/23/2018 to ?. |
Secondly, only one of the previous 20 Sell S15s did not show a badly
lagging A/D Line at the time of the signal. See the
list below.
Thirdly, in the single exception, early in 2002, when there was a strong
NYSE A/D Line present, the DJI rose another 5% before peaking..
See this case in the chart below.
Fourth, in none of the 20 earlier cases, was the P-Indicator so high as
it was on Friday when our S15 occurred. See list below.
So, for all these reasons, I think we should disregard the
S15 and I
should make the necessary program changes to eliminate it when the
A/D Line is making a new high and/or the P-I in above +175.
SELL S15s since 1928 edited 5/11/2018
1.
Previously Buy B15 DJI
PctGain Paper
Loss
19360303 S15
156.2
.042 Hit 158.8, then 150.4
1.026 .525 +38 +13 +.014 -109 +.023 .089
.33
LA/MA AROC P-I IP21 V-I
OBVPct 65-change 65-dayAROC
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
2. Previously S12
19360401 S15
158.9
.058 Hit 160.4, then 149.7
1.024 .198 -37 -10 -.126 -250 +.097 .111
.40
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
3. Previously B4
19370210 S15
189.4
.126 194.4 3/10
1.019 .391 -10 +12 +.034 -202 +.12 .038
.14
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
4. Previously and also S9
19370305 S15
194.1
.147 194.4 3/10
1.028 .373 -15 +5 +.037 -231 +.094 .059
.22
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
5. Previously S12 Also S9
19600105 S15
685.5
.107 Perfect!
1.018 .40 +4 +6 -.038 -170 +.099
+.085 .31
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
6. Previously S9
19700401 S15
792.04
.155 Perfect!
1.018 .181 -58 -3 -.014 -1 +.034
+.008 -.03
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
7. Previously S9
19720406 S15
959.44
.025 none
1.02 .159 -70 15 +.036 -1 -.09
+.075 +.28
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
8. Previously S9, S7
19720525 S15
969.07
.054 hit 973.51
1.025 .279 -10 14 +.004 -1 +.235
+.061 +.23
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
9. Previously B13, B4, B1, B2
19730105 S15
1047.49
.114
1.023 .238 -77 -7 +.039 -2 +.055
+.098 +.36
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
10. Previously B15, B4, B12, B13, B9, B2, B3
19760324 S15
1009.21
.048
1.024 .192 -64 +10 -.033 -1 +.261
+.195 +.66
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
11. Previously S7
19760421 S15
1011.02
1.019 .345 -1 +15 +.038 -1 +.073
+.071 +.26
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
12. Previously S9
19800213 S15
903.84
.14
1.028 .478 -26 +1 -.01 -1
+.212 +.12 +.44
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
13 Previously S4
19810424 S15 1020.35
.046 1024.05 -.0036
4/27
1.018 .061 +1 -11 -.012 -1 +.114
+.078 +.29
NYSE A/D NC
=================================================================
14. Previously S16
19900103 S15
2809.73
.074
1.027 .27 +36 -15 +.08 -4
+.097 +.043 +.16
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
15. Previously B19
19940518 S15
3732.89
.026
1.017 .365 -13 +93 +.074 -6 +.042
-.042 -.17
NYSE A/D NC FALLING 65 DMA
==========================================================================
16. Previously S9
19980422 S15
9176.72
.168
1.021 .478 +17 +4 +.057 -8 +.053
+.183 +.64
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
17. Previously S16
20000107 S15
11522.56
.131
1.021 .48 -23 +103 -.028 -59 +.356 +.088
+.33
NYSE A/D NC
==========================================================================
18. Previously B18, also S9 on this date.
20020226 S15
10115.26
.19 DJI rose to 10633.35 before falling.
1.027 .333 +68 +16 +.047 -160 -.064 +.021
+.09
A/D LINE DID CONFIRM!
=========================================================================
19. Previously S4, S9
20080501 S15
13040
.127
1.029 .405 +178 +33 +.048 -28
+.082 +.044 +.17
NYSE A/D NC
=========================================================================
20. Previously B19, also S7 on this date.
20120501 S15
13279.32
.087 Perfect.
1.018 .061 +78 +18 -.003 -87 +.037 +.048
+.18
NYSE A/D NC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No.=20 completed...
Avg Gain = 9.5%
========================================================================
20180511 S15
24831.17
1.018 .17 +191 +2 .017
-15 +.032 -.001 -.01
too high
21. Previusly B9
A/D LINE DID CONFIRM! |
Table 1
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/10/18
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM has an ITRS, 5.6%, showing it is strongest general mkt ETF over last 50 trading days.
SPY now has the highest IP21 among the 6 general market ETFs.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 248.54 1.08 243.42 123.1% ---- BLUE .115 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7402.88 -2.09 7265.21 132.4% ---- BLUE .102 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.85 .83 266.92 127.3% ---- BLUE .152 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.46 -.16 166.24 137.5% ---- ---- .101 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 352.86 .31 347.07 110% Bullish BLUE .03 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 159.84 .31 157.05 130.3% Bullish BLUE .123 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 69.43 -.08 64.77 443.6% ---- RED .019 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.77 .67 33.21 165.2% ---- BLUE -.036 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 155 -3.79 141.49 589.2% ---- RED .055 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 136.71 -.57 126.88 480% Bullish BLUE .165 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 106.58 2.85 103 205.2% ---- BLUE -.01 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 125 -.18 124.57 18.5% ---- RED -.065 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.04 -.13 27.33 151.7% Bullish RED .089 .166
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.36 -.64 20.88 435.5% Bullish RED .037 .293
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.78 -.13 33.75 158% Bullish RED .394 .132
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.32 -.04 24.38 -2% Bullish ---- .198 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.41 .01 101.59 -11.3% Bearish ---- -.063 -.021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.38 .07 51.24 -111.8% ---- ---- .007 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.58 -.11 6.73 -221.7% Bullish RED .234 -.068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 35.28 .23 31.53 496.6% Bullish RED .212 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.5 -.17 20.88 85% ---- RED .189 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 188.59 -1.45 185.16 127.6% Bullish RED .114 .067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1098.26 .69 1054.79 234.4% Bullish BLUE .029 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.7 -.21 96.22 131.7% ---- ---- .137 .042
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1602.91 -6.17 1600.14 68.7% Bearish RED .031 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 186.99 1.46 177.97 287.8% Bullish BLUE .119 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 254.53 -5.6 248.68 308.4% Bullish BLUE .218 .086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 342.46 -1.61 340.43 118% ---- RED .086 -.031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 242.92 -.52 237.2 167% Bearish RED -.283 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 190.31 3.15 183.56 142.4% Bullish BLUE .24 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 154.86 .89 149.82 282% ---- BLUE -.118 .02
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180511
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 223 Bullish
NEWLOWS 36
MAXCP 102
MINCP 84
TTTNH 90
TTTNL 82
FASTUP 236 Bullish
FASTDOWN 131
CPCROSSA 27
CPCROSSD 86
BIGVOLUP 6 More than usual
BIGVODN 11
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180511
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 102 72 71 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
TRANSP 20 3 15 %
--------------------------------------------------
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
NIFTY 30 4 13 %
SOFTWARE 65 8 12 %
MILITARY 38 4 11 %
OILGAS 134 13 10 %
FINANCE 91 8 9 %
REGBANKS 33 3 9 %
BIOTECH 380 29 8 %
FIDSTKS 189 14 7 %
RUS-1000 825 54 7 %
BIG17 48 3 6 %
CHEM 71 4 6 %
INDEXES 195 11 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
SP500 481 25 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ELECTRON 177 6 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
REIT 175 3 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180511
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 84 11 13 %
FIDELITY 41 4 10 %
CHEM 71 4 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
SOFTWARE 65 3 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
BIOTECH 380 7 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
REIT 175 3 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BONDFUND 111 1 1 %
ELECTRON 177 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 1 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
OILGAS 134 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 5 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
SP500 481 2 0 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/11/18
Bullish = 38
Bearish = 9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 1 1 1 1 1
SOLAR .857 .904 .714 .571 .571 .476
REIT .851 .868 .828 .8 .862 .817
OILGAS .798 .805 .783 .791 .746 .731
HACKERS .75 .791 .875 .791 .791 .708
COMPUTER .739 .782 .782 .652 .652 .608
NIFTY .733 .766 .666 .6 .6 .6
BIGBANKS .714 .714 .285 .142 .142 0
GAMING .714 .607 .571 .571 .571 .535
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .571 .714 .714
INDEXES .676 .641 .569 .507 .482 .42
COAL .666 .555 .555 .555 .555 .555
GREEN .666 .7 .7 .6 .566 .5
SOFTWARE .646 .723 .723 .707 .723 .692
COMODITY .642 .678 .571 .571 .553 .535
GOLD .64 .64 .56 .58 .58 .56
DOWJONES .633 .566 .566 .466 .5 .433
GUNS .611 .555 .5 .555 .555 .555
INDMATER .611 .6 .576 .517 .494 .482
RUS-1000 .608 .601 .55 .523 .528 .499
REGBANKS .606 .606 .606 .606 .575 .575
INFRA .6 .571 .514 .542 .4 .4
UTILITY .595 .571 .523 .523 .738 .785
FINANCE .593 .571 .45 .428 .439 .351
SP-100 .593 .583 .5 .447 .427 .427
NASD-100 .584 .606 .528 .46 .471 .494
SP500 .58 .565 .488 .453 .461 .461
PIPELINE .571 .428 .428 .428 .428 .142
FIDSTKS .566 .544 .481 .417 .46 .444
FOOD .555 .666 .555 .666 .555 .555
TRANSP .55 .5 .55 .45 .35 .45
CHEM .549 .549 .507 .507 .478 .478
DJI-13 .538 .538 .538 .384 .461 .384
CHINA .532 .532 .419 .435 .419 .403
RETAIL .528 .49 .49 .49 .452 .509
ETFS .524 .475 .393 .377 .36 .36
SEMI .519 .558 .511 .434 .403 .403
ELECTRON .508 .542 .508 .423 .395 .395
N = 38
================================================================================================
BIOTECH .497 .442 .463 .418 .452 .4
MILITARY .473 .473 .473 .421 .421 .315
BIG17 .458 .437 .437 .437 .458 .437
HOMEBLDG .411 .352 .352 .529 .588 .529
AUTO .375 .35 .325 .325 .3 .3
INSURANC .343 .343 .312 .281 .25 .218
BONDFUND .324 .306 .225 .243 .243 .243
BEVERAGE .3 .35 .35 .35 .4 .3
JETS .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3
N = 9
|
==============================================================================
5/10/2018 Our
Peerless Buy B9 still stands. So higher prices are
likely. In fact,
if Friday were to produce another rise just like today, there would be no
Sell even though the DJI would be closing above 25000. We have to
be pleased that not only has DIA (representing the DJI) and SPY (representing
SP-500) gotten back more convincingly above their 65-dma, but their
Closing Powers have now risen above their still falling Closing Powers.
This is good. But the most bullish aspect of the market now is that the NYSE
A/D Line has just made a new far ahead of the DJI. For the last few years, these
ADL NH's have been very reliable harbingers of much higher prices by the DJI.
Should we take profits in
IWM?
A small and brief pullback is certainly possible. IWM is back to its 159-160
resistance and the DJI has now risen 6 straight days. Still, I would suggest we simply
rely on Peerless when to sell.
What has been boosting IWM technically has been its many excellent looking breakouts
. Our Bullish MINCPS have pointed to them. But IWM's volume was
low today. That
will most likely not allow it to breakout over 160 right away. In addition, the
total
number of new highs today remained at Wednesday's levels, 345, rather than bullishly
expand as it has been doing since May 4th. Still, "345" is a very bullish
number. It
shows speculative enthusiasm is strong and it shows fears of interest rate rises is
still not a limiting factor. Earnings should keep rising and bonds are not a threat
to
stocks.
However, when we look at the Hourly DJI, we see that the OBV-DISI Line is
not matching the size of the DJI's advance. So, a brief retreat by the DJI would
be no surprise.
Because IWM's flat top "beckons for a breakout", as I like to say, and
because of the strong NYSE ADL and the operative B9, I think most traders will
want to just continue to hold IWM long in expectation of a bullish breakout run to new
highs. Our Bullish MAXCPs continue to do well. Let me call your attention to
a particularly bullish pattern of Accumulation, strong Closing Power the red
high volume breakout in MIXT, the top ranked Bullish MAXCP stock.
Short-term interest rates did not rise today. That will help the market. Oil
was strong
once again. Bullish performance-minded institutions must put their money into this
sector. So, once again I want to advocate on behalf of low priced oil stocks like
PES (5.0). I also want to point out the bearish potential in airlines' stocks.
In addition, note how the rising prices of Grains and Sugar are also pushing up
commodity prices. This explains the weakness in beverage and beer stocks. Stay
short
a few of these is my suggestion. This is a market tailor made for our Power Ranker
program run against MAXCPs and MINCPs.
If we are about to get a new leg up in more speculative stocks, let me suggest looking
at the NEWHIGHs download and then using the older charting program to inspect
the stocks that are up the biggest percentage and show a high IP21 (above +.35).
Ideally, they will also have an AI/200 above 147 and show a recent B24, B20 or
B12. These may become this year's Explosive Super Stocks.
Commands with TigerSoft
Peercomm
Select Folder
New Highs
Older Charting
Ranking Results
User Set Rankings
"1" + "1"
Charts 5/10/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/10/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/510/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/510/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/10/18
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM has an ITRS, 7.2%, showing it is strongest general mkt ETF over last 50 trading days.
SPY now has the highest IP21 among the 6 general market ETFs.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 247.46 2.06 242.52 172.2% ---- BLUE .103 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7404.97 65.06 7209.62 219% ---- BLUE .092 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 272.02 2.52 266.02 176.4% ---- BLUE .124 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 169.62 1.74 164.87 236.4% ---- BLUE .102 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 352.55 2.6 345.19 172.7% Bullish BLUE .029 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 159.53 .85 155.73 182.6% Bullish BLUE .11 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 69.51 1.57 63.55 620.8% ---- BLUE .036 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.1 .06 33.66 139.2% ---- BLUE -.079 -.02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 158.79 8.05 137.72 1078.7% ---- BLUE .107 -.049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 137.28 5.2 124.27 784.4% Bullish BLUE .178 .058
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103.73 -.06 102.35 119.4% Bearish RED -.088 -.029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 125.18 .85 124.54 36.2% Bullish ---- -.076 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .072
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.17 .04 27.2 237% Bullish ---- .14 .197
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 23 .12 20.46 831.2% Bullish RED .053 .388
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.91 .29 33.7 227.4% Bullish BLUE .431 .141
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.36 -.11 24.33 12.3% Bullish ---- .144 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.4 .21 101.64 -11.3% Bearish ---- -.106 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.31 .7 51.51 -95.6% Bearish BLUE -.029 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.69 -.04 6.88 -256% Bullish ---- .287 .014
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 35.05 1.28 32 500.3% Bullish BLUE .223 .018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.67 .55 21.14 168.8% Bullish BLUE .175 -.053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 190.04 2.68 183.83 357.6% Bullish BLUE .122 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1097.57 14.81 1048.21 350.8% Bullish BLUE .021 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 97.91 .97 95.16 200.8% ---- BLUE .133 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1609.08 1.08 1580.95 116.3% Bearish BLUE .053 .075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 185.53 2.87 176.61 323.2% ---- BLUE .058 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 260.13 4.35 239.06 553% Bullish BLUE .293 .086
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 344.07 -.43 334.43 198.1% ---- BLUE .129 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 243.44 1.71 234.94 211.7% Bearish BLUE -.249 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 187.16 .8 185.03 107.5% Bullish BLUE .192 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.97 1.36 146.37 343.1% ---- BLUE -.096 .007
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180510
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 345 bullish...unchanged from previous day
NEWLOWS 36
MAXCP 135 Professions are switching sides!
MINCP 81
TTTNH 113 Day Traders are Bullish
TTTNL 98
FASTUP 320 Swing Traders are bullish
FASTDOWN 116
CPCROSSA 51
CPCROSSD 74 Some Pros are not convinced, still
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 11 Big money is still dumping, not chasing.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180510
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 135 99 73 %
NIFTY-30 30 9 30 %
HACKERS 24 7 29 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
SOFTWARE 65 19 29 %
COMPUTER 23 5 22 %
COMODITY 56 12 21 %
REGBANKS 33 7 21 %
NASD-100 89 16 18 %
DOWJONES 30 5 17 %
MILITARY 38 6 16 %
OILGAS 135 21 16 %
TRANSP 20 3 15 %
---------------------------------------------------
GAMING 28 4 14 %
SOLAR 21 3 14 %
FIDSTKS 189 25 13 %
FINANCE 91 10 11 %
ELECTRON 177 17 10 %
RUS-1000 825 80 10 %
SP-100 96 10 10 %
SP500 481 48 10 %
SEMI 129 11 9 %
CHINA 62 5 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
INDEXES 195 15 8 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
BIG17 48 3 6 %
CHEM 71 4 6 %
INDMATER 85 5 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 382 18 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
REIT 175 7 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
ETFS 61 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180510
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 81 15 19 %
CHEM 71 4 6 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 382 10 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 135 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 1 1 %
REIT 175 1 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 4 0 %
SP500 481 2 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/10/18
Bullish = 34
Bearish = 12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 1 1
SOLAR .904 .714 .571 .571 .476 .476
REIT .868 .828 .8 .862 .8 .731
OILGAS .8 .777 .785 .74 .725 .696
HACKERS .791 .875 .791 .791 .75 .583
COMPUTER .782 .782 .652 .652 .608 .565
NIFTY .766 .666 .6 .6 .6 .5
SOFTWARE .723 .723 .707 .723 .707 .615
BIGBANKS .714 .285 .142 .142 0 0
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .571 .714 .714 .714
GREEN .7 .7 .6 .566 .5 .466
COMODITY .678 .571 .571 .553 .535 .535
FOOD .666 .555 .666 .555 .555 .666
INDEXES .641 .569 .507 .482 .415 .271
GOLD .64 .56 .58 .58 .54 .56
GAMING .607 .571 .571 .571 .535 .357
NASD-100 .606 .528 .46 .471 .483 .382
REGBANKS .606 .606 .606 .575 .575 .393
RUS-1000 .601 .55 .523 .528 .495 .414
INDMATER .6 .576 .517 .494 .458 .411
SP-100 .583 .5 .447 .427 .416 .343
FINANCE .571 .45 .428 .439 .351 .307
INFRA .571 .514 .542 .4 .342 .342
UTILITY .571 .523 .523 .738 .785 .714
DOWJONES .566 .566 .466 .5 .433 .4
SP500 .565 .488 .453 .461 .455 .378
SEMI .558 .511 .434 .403 .395 .333
COAL .555 .555 .555 .555 .555 .333
GUNS .555 .5 .555 .555 .555 .444
CHEM .549 .521 .492 .478 .45 .394
FIDSTKS .544 .481 .417 .46 .439 .375
ELECTRON .542 .508 .423 .395 .389 .322
DJI-13 .538 .538 .384 .461 .384 .384
CHINA .532 .419 .435 .419 .403 .354
N = 34
============================================================================================
TRANSP .5 .55 .45 .35 .45 .35
============================================================================================
RETAIL .49 .49 .49 .452 .509 .49
ETFS .475 .393 .377 .36 .36 .344
MILITARY .473 .473 .421 .421 .315 .236
BIOTECH .442 .463 .418 .452 .397 .387
BIG17 .437 .437 .437 .479 .416 .395
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .142 .142
HOMEBLDG .352 .352 .529 .588 .529 .588
AUTO .35 .325 .325 .3 .3 .25
BEVERAGE .35 .35 .35 .4 .3 .25
INSURANC .343 .312 .281 .25 .25 .187
BONDFUND .306 .225 .243 .243 .243 .216
JETS .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .3
N=12
|
|
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
5/9/2018
Our Peerless Buy B9 tells us that higher prices are coming,
especially
if the DJI and SP-500 can convincingly get up past their rising 65-dma resistance
levels and their downtrends. The A/D Line rose bullishly today and could
make a 12-month high if we get another good day or two. Hold your
long positions. Meanwhile, some of our bearish MINCPs remain very
weak. The rising prices in Commodities and in Oil are bound to create new
big winners and losers. Interest rates are not yet so high as to be a threat.
Today's Producer Prices shows 2.6% inflation. This should be tolerable.
https://outlook.live.com/owa/?path=/mail/inbox/rp
But if our FOMC now acts like most of those in the past, it will pay more
attention to the rise in Crude Oil. So we must watch for signs that the Short
Term Interest Rate trend is accelerating.
The DJI's downtrend-line remains an obstacle. But history shows us examples
of the DJI moving higher after a 3-4 month delay even though there have been
Sell S9s after a very long uptrend. Unfortunately, two of the best examples
are
from 1929 and 1987. But the point here is that the DJI may surprise people and
rise to new highs. In both cases, it was the FED which decided to boost the
market.
Hold IWM. It remains the strongest major market ETF. See Table 1 below.
Hold the oil stocks, especially low priced ones like PTE. And continue to hold
a few bearish MINCPs. Some of these are being hit hard, as their weakness
becomes more and more apparent. The higher Oil prices are going to create
real problems for the airlines industry just as the higher prices for grains are
hurting brewers and higher sugar prices are hurting soft drink stocks. The Bearish
MINCPs and today's new lows reflect these higher commodity price
pressures.
Charts 5/9/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/9/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/509/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/509/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/09/18
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM is 7.2% stronger over last 50 trading days. It has the highest IP21 among
the 6 general market ETFs at top in table below.
IWM remains favored.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 245.4 1.98 239.1 130.2% ---- BLUE .053 ------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7339.91 73.01 7088.15 166.3% ---- BLUE .061 .035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 269.5 2.58 262.62 118.8% ---- BLUE .058 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 167.88 1.81 161.8 184.6% ---- BLUE .034 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 349.95 1.72 340.59 128.8% Bullish BLUE .015 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 158.68 .85 153.81 129.3% Bullish BLUE .118 .072
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 67.94 2.3 61.48 440.6% ---- BLUE -.027 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.04 1.04 33.17 -28.4% Bearish BLUE -.129 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 150.74 6.24 128.46 905.1% ---- BLUE .069 -.098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 132.08 4.7 117.57 630% ---- BLUE .112 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103.79 1.38 101.28 54.2% Bearish BLUE -.073 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.33 -.26 124.28 27.3% Bullish RED -.14 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 28.13 .54 26.87 180% Bullish BLUE .173 .18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 22.88 1.02 19.49 445.9% Bullish BLUE .092 .311
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.62 .75 33.37 234% Bullish BLUE .391 .122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.47 0 24.3 14.4% Bullish ---- .17 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.19 -.23 101.63 -8.9% Bearish ---- -.124 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.61 -.35 51.28 -170.4% Bearish RED -.08 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.73 -.07 7.04 -131% Bullish ---- .286 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 33.77 .99 31.81 210.2% Bullish BLUE .204 -.053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.12 .04 20.96 102.6% ---- ---- .211 -.073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 187.36 1.31 176.89 296.9% Bullish BLUE .085 .084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1082.76 28.85 1023.72 280.4% Bullish BLUE -.02 .002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 96.94 1.13 94.07 180.6% Bearish BLUE .075 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1608 15.61 1572.07 121% Bearish BLUE .028 .097
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 182.66 3.74 174.02 186.5% ---- BLUE .044 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 255.78 5.38 232.99 615.3% Bullish BLUE .213 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 344.5 6.13 330.69 304.4% ---- BLUE .108 -.022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 241.73 4.73 233.41 163.2% Bearish BLUE -.244 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.36 1.32 183.19 12.2% Bullish BLUE .167 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 152.61 2.68 143.78 298.1% ---- BLUE -.106 -.02
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180509
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 345 Bullish
NEWLOWS 75
MAXCP 138 Mildly Bullish
MINCP 122
TTTNH 112
TTTNL 151
FASTUP 250 Swing Traders are bullish.
FASTDOWN 133
CPCROSSA 90 Not enough improvement
CPCROSSD 83
BIGVOLUP 7 Big Buyers are becoming more aggressive.
BIGVODN 17
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180509
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 138 101 73 %
HACKERS 24 9 38 %
COMPUTER 23 8 35 %
NIFTY 30 9 30 %
HOSPITAL 7 2 29 %
SOFTWARE 65 19 29 %
REGBANKS 33 7 21 %
COMODITY 56 11 20 %
NASD-100 89 16 18 %
DOWJONES 30 5 17 %
OILGAS 136 23 17 %
MILITARY 38 6 16 %
TRANSP 20 3 15 %
------------------------------------------------------
GAMING 28 4 14 %
FIDSTKS 189 24 13 %
FINANCE 91 12 13 %
RUS-1000 825 81 10 %
SP-100 96 9 9 %
SP500 481 45 9 %
BIG17 48 4 8 %
CHINA 62 5 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
BIOTECH 381 25 7 %
ELECTRON 177 11 6 %
INDEXES 195 12 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
RETAIL 53 3 6 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
SEMI 129 7 5 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
REIT 175 6 3 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180509
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 122 35 29 %
BEVERAGE 20 4 20 %
BONDFUND 111 8 7 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
BIOTECH 381 14 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 8 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ELECTRON 177 5 3 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
SEMI 129 4 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 136 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 825 16 2 %
SOFTWARE 65 1 2 %
SP500 481 12 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/9/18
Bullish = 28
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 1 1
HACKERS .875 .791 .791 .75 .625 .625
REIT .828 .8 .862 .8 .731 .697
COMPUTER .782 .652 .652 .608 .565 .521
OILGAS .779 .779 .735 .72 .683 .735
SOFTWARE .723 .707 .723 .707 .63 .646
HOSPITAL .714 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714
SOLAR .714 .571 .571 .476 .476 .476
GREEN .7 .6 .566 .5 .466 .4
NIFTY .666 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5
REGBANKS .606 .606 .575 .575 .393 .424
INDMATER .576 .517 .494 .458 .4 .4
COMODITY .571 .571 .553 .535 .535 .535
GAMING .571 .571 .571 .535 .357 .357
INDEXES .569 .507 .482 .415 .266 .312
DOWJONES .566 .466 .5 .433 .4 .433
GOLD .56 .58 .58 .54 .54 .5
COAL .555 .555 .555 .555 .333 .333
FOOD .555 .666 .555 .555 .666 .666
RUS-1000 .55 .523 .528 .495 .41 .426
TRANSP .55 .45 .35 .45 .35 .4
DJI-13 .538 .384 .461 .384 .384 .384
CHEM .532 .516 .483 .451 .37 .403
NASD-100 .528 .46 .471 .483 .393 .404
UTILITY .523 .523 .738 .785 .714 .738
INFRA .514 .542 .4 .342 .342 .314
SEMI .511 .434 .403 .395 .333 .31
ELECTRON .508 .423 .395 .389 .322 .327
N=28
=============================================================================================
GUNS .5 .555 .555 .555 .444 .388
SP-100 .5 .447 .427 .416 .343 .354
=============================================================================================
RETAIL .49 .49 .452 .509 .49 .547
SP500 .488 .453 .461 .455 .374 .39
FIDSTKS .481 .417 .46 .439 .37 .354
MILITARY .473 .421 .421 .315 .236 .21
BIOTECH .464 .419 .454 .398 .383 .422
FINANCE .45 .428 .439 .351 .307 .362
BIG17 .437 .437 .479 .437 .354 .416
PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .142 .142 .285
CHINA .419 .435 .419 .403 .354 .338
ETFS .393 .377 .36 .36 .344 .295
HOMEBLDG .352 .529 .588 .529 .529 .411
BEVERAGE .35 .35 .4 .3 .25 .25
AUTO .325 .325 .3 .3 .25 .25
INSURANC .312 .281 .25 .25 .187 .218
BIGBANKS .285 .142 .142 0 0 0
BONDFUND .225 .243 .243 .243 .207 .18
JETS .2 .2 .1 .3 .3 .3
N=17
|
|
.
==============================================================================
5/8/2018
Our Peerless Buy B9 tells us that higher prices are coming,
especially
if the DJI and SP-500 can get up past their rising 65-dma resistance levels.
A good strong opening and close tomorrow may do that. Note also in the
DJI chart below how our IP21 and V-Indicators moved much closer to positive
territory today. If this internal improvement continues, there may well be no
Peerless
Sell signal at the upper 2.4% band. The DJI seems on target
to get back to 25000.
If the internals are good enough, we will not get a Sell signal there. Let's let
Peerless
tell us when to sell.
IWM is, by far the strongest of the major market ETFs.
It seems ready to
challenge its recent highs just above 160. Let's not sell it there yet.
Today's
market refused to sell off despite the sabre-rattling from Washington versus Iran
and despite the jump of short-term interest rates to a new high. Instead, our
examination of new highs tonight shows a number of bullish flat top breakouts
on (red) high volume. This often happens just as the market begins a new
surge.
Stay long IWM, WEAT, some low priced Oil stocks and the most bullish MAXCP
ETFs and stocks. Since many of our bearish MINCPs have remained quite weak,
hold a few of these as long as their Closing Powers stay below their 21-dma
and their IP21s do not turn positive.
Charts 5/8/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/8/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/508/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/508/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/08/18
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM is 7.1% stronger over last 50 trading days. It has the highest IP21 among
the 6 general market ETFs at top in table below.
MDY and IWM show rising Closing Powers.
IWM remains favored.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 243.42 0 239.11 55.2% Bearish BLUE .044 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7266.9 1.69 7100.9 95.1% ---- BLUE .043 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.92 0 263.2 36.6% Bearish BLUE .056 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 166.07 -.17 161.82 100.6% ---- BLUE .037 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 348.23 1.16 341.08 95% Bullish BLUE .019 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 157.83 .78 154.65 121.2% Bullish BLUE .126 .071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 65.64 .87 62.34 129.7% ---- BLUE -.073 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 33 -.21 34.23 -129.4% Bearish ---- -.105 -.06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 144.5 3.01 126.18 625.6% ---- BLUE .057 -.123
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 127.38 .5 116.64 428.3% ---- BLUE .09 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 102.41 -.59 102.68 -79.9% Bearish RED -.057 -.029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.59 .02 123.65 35.4% Bullish BLUE -.101 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .114
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.59 .26 27.15 125.5% Bullish BLUE .243 .158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.86 .98 21.03 140.6% Bullish BLUE .211 .202
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.87 .12 33.05 85.2% Bullish RED .367 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.47 .09 24.4 37% Bullish ---- .144 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.42 -.17 101.37 3.4% Bearish ---- -.103 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 49.96 -1.28 51.35 -140.2% Bearish RED -.081 .048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.8 .07 6.91 -101.4% Bullish BLUE .304 .104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.78 1.25 32.42 9.3% Bullish RED .199 -.169
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.08 .2 20.69 47.8% ---- BLUE .281 -.08
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 186.05 .89 176.57 475.3% Bullish BLUE .069 .092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1053.91 -.88 1024.38 80% Bullish RED -.031 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95.81 -.41 93.51 42.7% Bearish RED .054 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1592.39 -7.75 1569.68 32% Bearish RED .026 .099
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 178.92 .95 176.07 144% ---- BLUE .083 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 250.4 1.72 226.31 495.2% Bullish BLUE .203 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 338.37 -2.06 324.19 133% Bearish RED .116 -.017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237 -.2 234.05 7% Bearish RED -.297 -.074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185.04 1.48 185.91 11.1% Bullish BLUE .146 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 149.93 .11 143.86 189.2% Bearish RED -.11 -.032
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180508
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 251 Bullish
NEWLOWS 95
MAXCP 105
MINCP 141 Professionals are still net bearish.
TTTNH 104
TTTNL 160 Day Traders are still net bearish
FASTUP 225 Swing-traders are bullish.
FASTDOWN 133
CPCROSSA 112 Professionals are shifting positively
CPCROSSD 106
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 22 Big Money is still dumping numerous stocks.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180508
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 105 64 61 %
COMPUTER 23 7 30 %
HACKERS 24 6 25 %
REGBANKS 33 7 21 %
SOFTWARE 65 13 20 %
NIFTY-30 29 5 17 %
MILITARY 38 6 16 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
FINANCE 91 10 11 %
DOWJONES 30 3 10 %
NASD-100 89 9 10 %
OILGAS 135 14 10 %
FIDSTKS 189 17 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
COMODITY 56 4 7 %
BIG17 48 3 6 %
RUS-1000 825 46 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 382 20 5 %
ELECTRON 177 9 5 %
SP500 481 23 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
SEMI 129 5 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
INDEXES 195 6 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
REIT 175 5 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180508
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 141 53 38 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
CHEM 62 5 8 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
ETFS 61 4 7 %
SP-100 96 7 7 %
FIDSTKS 189 12 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
BIOTECH 382 18 5 %
BONDFUND 111 4 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
INDMATER 85 3 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
RUS-1000 825 28 3 %
ELECTRON 177 3 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
OILGAS 135 2 1 %
SEMI 129 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/8/18
Bullish = 24
Bearish = 23
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 1 .857
REIT .8 .862 .8 .731 .691 .714
HACKERS .791 .791 .75 .625 .625 .666
OILGAS .785 .74 .725 .688 .74 .733
SOFTWARE .707 .723 .707 .63 .646 .661
FOOD .666 .555 .555 .666 .666 .666
COMPUTER .652 .652 .608 .565 .521 .434
REGBANKS .606 .575 .575 .393 .424 .515
GREEN .6 .566 .5 .466 .366 .4
NIFTY .586 .586 .586 .482 .482 .517
GOLD .58 .58 .54 .54 .5 .44
COMODITY .571 .553 .535 .535 .535 .517
GAMING .571 .571 .535 .357 .357 .321
HOSPITAL .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .428
SOLAR .571 .571 .476 .476 .476 .476
COAL .555 .555 .555 .333 .333 .222
GUNS .555 .555 .555 .444 .388 .388
INFRA .542 .4 .342 .342 .314 .285
HOMEBLDG .529 .588 .529 .529 .411 .411
RUS-1000 .523 .528 .495 .41 .421 .466
UTILITY .523 .738 .785 .714 .738 .761
INDMATER .517 .494 .458 .4 .388 .388
CHEM .516 .483 .451 .37 .387 .403
INDEXES .507 .482 .415 .266 .307 .317
N=24
===========================================================================================
RETAIL .49 .452 .509 .49 .528 .584
DOWJONES .466 .5 .433 .4 .4 .4
NASD-100 .46 .471 .483 .393 .404 .438
SP500 .453 .461 .455 .374 .386 .451
TRANSP .45 .35 .45 .35 .4 .5
SP-100 .447 .427 .416 .343 .343 .395
BIG17 .437 .479 .437 .375 .395 .354
CHINA .435 .419 .403 .354 .338 .338
SEMI .434 .403 .395 .333 .31 .255
FINANCE .428 .439 .351 .307 .362 .34
PIPELINE .428 .428 .142 .142 .285 .285
ELECTRON .423 .395 .389 .322 .322 .271
MILITARY .421 .421 .315 .236 .236 .263
BIOTECH .418 .452 .397 .382 .421 .4
FIDSTKS .417 .46 .439 .37 .349 .417
DJI-13 .384 .461 .384 .384 .384 .307
ETFS .377 .36 .36 .344 .278 .278
BEVERAGE .35 .4 .3 .25 .25 .4
AUTO .325 .3 .3 .25 .25 .225
INSURANC .281 .25 .25 .187 .218 .343
BONDFUND .243 .243 .243 .207 .18 .18
JETS .2 .1 .3 .3 .3 .5
BIGBANKS .142 .142 0 0 0 .142
N=23
|
|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5/7/2018
Our Peerless Buy B9 did bring a broad rally today. But as
was feared might
happen, the DJI and SP-500 seem to have hit a barrier at their falling 65-dma.
Now we must wait and see if they can regroup for another try to the upside.
That rally may well fail at the upper 2.4% band since the IP21 and V-I Indicators
may still be negative when the DJI gets there.
Fortunately, the Russell-2000's ETF, IWM, was our choice for playing the Buy
B9 as it was already above its own 65-dma and also showed better internals. Over
the last 50-days, IWM has out-performed the DJI by +5.7% and it is the only major
market ETF to show a positive IP21 (current Accummulation). IWM,
I suspect,
is more likely to rally now until it reaches its own resistance, which is based on
its recent highs.
Let's Plan to sell IWM at 159.5
Hang onto your longs. The average DJI gain after a Peerless Buy
signal is more
than 10%. A little sidewise digestion of the recent gains would be contructive.
Watch the number of the NYSE Advances and Declines. That is important now.
Today there were 784 more up than down. This reflects both good economic
growth and a view that much higher interest rates do not lie immediately ahead.
If rates stay low, that will help smaller companies and if inflation does heat up,
traders will need to play smaller growth stocks and bullish special situations,
like the oil stocks I have mentioned. 74% of the 135 Oil/Gas stocks we have
in that select directory are now above their 65-dma and the group is
out-performing the DJI by 7.4% over the last 50 trading days. In the past,
a good way to play the advance here is to watch Crude Oil. So long as
its IP21 is positive and it says above its 65-dma, look for higher prices.
A Wild Advance in Select Lower Priced Stocks May Be
Coming.
It has been a long time since low-priced stocks have caught the fancy of traders.
That occasionally happens at the end of a long bull markets (notably 1968 - electronics
stocks, 1976-1977 - oil stocks, 1999 - biotech and internet stocks and 2008 - oil stocks)
when the Public finally is invited to the party and gets excited about by the hype in
a particular industry. My guess now is that low-priced oil stocks are the most
likely
to play this role again.
A May 2008 TigerSoft Hotline shows the way Oil Stocks surged wildly
just as the
overall market was topping out.
http://www.tigersoftware.com/00XXX2008hlmarch/index.html
In the next chart, we see how easy it was to sell when to sell Crude Oil at or very
near the top in 2008. USO is still in the run-up stage now.
Low Priced stocks are still weak.
Our index of 225 Low Priced stocks still looks very
weak. Its own A/D Line
is falling and its IP21 (not shown here) has been negative for months. So, we are
not yet at a point we the Public is interested in speculating. Perhaps, they just
are too much in debt or lack the funds. This suggests to me that we should
simply be selling IWM on its rally up to its recent highs. (I do not have
a Tiger Index of the 2000 stocks that make up the Russell-2000.)
My Russell-1000 (actually only 800) Index chart also shows prices caught in a
trading range with very negative Accumulation).
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/07/18
Closing Powers are still apt to falter when they meet their
falling 21-dma.
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM is 5.7% stronger over last 50 trading days. Only it has positive IP21
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 243.42 .9 240.76 39.1% Bearish RED -.021 ====
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7265.21 55.59 7130.7 139.7% Bearish BLUE -.03 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.92 .9 264.98 45.6% Bearish ---- -.003 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 166.24 1.37 162.78 163.1% ---- BLUE -.019 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 347.07 1.88 341.71 96% Bullish BLUE -.054 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 157.05 1.32 154.07 120.9% Bullish BLUE .038 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.77 1.22 64 104% Bearish BLUE -.123 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 33.21 -.45 33.87 -141.9% Bearish RED -.134 -.058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 141.49 3.77 127.94 762.2% Bearish BLUE -.023 -.104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 126.88 2.61 117.06 600% ---- BLUE .023 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103 .65 104.05 -31.6% Bearish BLUE -.077 -.032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.57 .03 123.71 -.8% Bullish BLUE -.091 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .099
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.33 .13 26.91 35.1% Bullish RED .171 .134
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.88 .42 21.28 -118.2% Bullish RED .062 .16
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.75 .05 33.3 -22.4% Bullish RED .372 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.38 .05 24.29 51.5% Bullish ---- .172 .075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.59 -.05 101.35 -5.4% Bearish ---- -.066 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.24 -.27 51.4 -31.1% Bullish RED -.021 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.73 -.15 6.94 7.2% Bullish RED .327 .101
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.53 -.47 32.72 -199.4% Bullish BLUE .145 -.186
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.88 -.26 20.88 -33.4% ---- RED .087 -.084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 185.16 1.33 169.1 570.8% Bullish ---- .003 .093
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1054.79 6.58 1037.31 181.8% Bullish BLUE -.07 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 96.22 1.06 95 143.2% Bearish BLUE -.006 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1600.14 19.19 1582.26 108% Bearish BLUE -.016 .104
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 177.97 1.36 173.86 171% ---- BLUE .052 .008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 248.68 9.62 227.14 516.8% Bullish BLUE .111 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 340.43 6 329.54 103.9% Bearish BLUE .081 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 237.2 2.26 236.67 -24% Bearish BLUE -.285 -.073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 183.56 -1.47 184.63 -33.6% Bullish RED .059 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 149.82 3.45 144.42 188.9% Bearish BLUE -.142 -.04
|
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180507
---------------------- --------
NEWHIGHS 225 Bullish
NEWLOWS 63
MAXCP 79
MINCP 99 Professionals are still more bearish.
TTTNH 108
TTTNL 97
FASTUP 241 Swing traders are still bullish.
FASTDOWN 108
CPCROSSA 65
CPCROSSD 63
BIGVOLUP 0 There were none Monday.
BIGVODN 10
ACCUMVER 10
HIGHIP21 56
HIUPPCT 146
VHIP21 28
LOWACCUM 405
REDSELL 203
AUGSELS7 38
TRAPDOOR 34
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180507
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================-
MAXCP 79 54 68 %
COMPUTER 23 5 22 %
HACKERS 24 5 21 %
COMODITY 56 9 16 %
SOFTWARE 65 10 15 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
NIFTY 30 4 13 %
DOWJONES 30 3 10 %
NASD-100 89 8 9 %
REGBANKS 33 3 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
BIG17 46 3 7 %
FIDSTKS 189 13 7 %
OILGAS 135 10 7 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
BIOTECH 382 21 5 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
FINANCE 91 5 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
REIT 176 9 5 %
RUS-1000 825 39 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
INDEXES 195 6 3 %
ELECTRON 177 4 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180507
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
PIPELINE 7 2 29 %
MINCP 99 29 29 %
ETFS 61 5 8 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BONDFUND 111 5 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
ELECTRON 177 5 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
BIOTECH 382 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
OILGAS 135 3 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
SP500 481 9 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 11 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
|
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/7/18
Bearish = 26 - This is still a problem.
Bullish = 20
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 1 .857 .857
REIT .863 .801 .732 .693 .71 .67
HACKERS .791 .75 .625 .625 .625 .708
OILGAS .74 .725 .688 .74 .725 .733
UTILITY .738 .785 .714 .738 .761 .738
SOFTWARE .723 .707 .63 .646 .661 .646
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .428 .428
COMPUTER .652 .608 .565 .521 .478 .391
NIFTY .6 .6 .5 .5 .533 .466
HOMEBLDG .588 .529 .529 .411 .411 .411
GOLD .58 .54 .54 .5 .4 .42
REGBANKS .575 .575 .393 .424 .484 .484
GAMING .571 .535 .357 .357 .321 .321
SOLAR .571 .476 .476 .476 .476 .523
GREEN .566 .5 .466 .366 .4 .433
COAL .555 .555 .333 .333 .222 .333
FOOD .555 .555 .666 .666 .666 .777
GUNS .555 .555 .444 .388 .388 .277
COMODITY .553 .535 .535 .535 .517 .517
RUS-1000 .528 .495 .41 .421 .463 .449
N=20
===============================================================================================
DOWJONES .5 .433 .4 .4 .366 .466
===============================================================================================
INDMATER .494 .458 .4 .388 .376 .388
CHEM .483 .451 .37 .387 .403 .338
INDEXES .482 .415 .266 .307 .312 .297
NASD-100 .471 .483 .393 .404 .438 .426
DJI-13 .461 .384 .384 .384 .307 .307
SP500 .461 .455 .374 .386 .446 .449
FIDSTKS .46 .439 .37 .349 .412 .407
BIG17 .456 .413 .347 .391 .326 .304
BIOTECH .452 .397 .382 .421 .392 .374
RETAIL .452 .509 .49 .528 .584 .622
FINANCE .439 .351 .307 .362 .34 .34
PIPELINE .428 .142 .142 .285 .285 .428
SP-100 .427 .416 .343 .343 .385 .437
MILITARY .421 .315 .236 .236 .263 .263
CHINA .419 .403 .354 .338 .338 .354
SEMI .406 .398 .335 .312 .25 .187
BEVERAGE .4 .3 .25 .25 .4 .4
INFRA .4 .342 .342 .314 .257 .314
ELECTRON .395 .389 .322 .322 .265 .203
ETFS .36 .36 .344 .278 .278 .327
TRANSP .35 .45 .35 .4 .5 .5
AUTO .282 .282 .23 .23 .205 .153
INSURANC .25 .25 .187 .218 .343 .343
BONDFUND .243 .243 .207 .18 .162 .126
BIGBANKS .142 0 0 0 .142 .142
JETS .1 .3 .3 .3 .5 .4
N=26
|
==============================================================================
5/4/2018 Our Peerless Buy B9 got a real nice boost Friday from the Jobs Report number,
+164,000, for April. The figure was not so high as to give the FED reason to rush to
raise rates or so low as to suggest the economy is slowing down dangerously.
Bullishly, the March jobs' estimate was revised up +32,000. The Public saw the
new 3.9% unemployment level and quickly concluded that this is bullish for the
market. For now they are right. But if the DJI closes 2.4% over the 21-day ma,
about 25,000, we will likely see a new S12 and an S9-V.
As I've been saying, there is considerably more upside potential elsewhere,
notably in IWM, in Oils and even the NASDAQ now.
Buy More IWM and Oil Stocks
Because of the B9, I recommended buying IWM on Wednesday. If
you bought it at the
opening the next day, you paid no more than 154.11. And I also suggested buying
more USO. It opened the next day at 13.63. On Friday, IWM moved back above
its 65-dma and USO made a bullish flat-top breakout. Both are looking good for
new week. The best stock recommendation here was in PES. This is a very, very
volatile oil stock. With Crude on the rise, its leverage should bring another move
back up
to resistance at $6.50. Of course, if oil can rise a little more and stay up there,
it will
go much higher. GTE is another small oil stock that typically rises and falls a lot
with oil prices. In 2008, with the DJI having topped out, oil stocks and Crude Oil
got a
very big run, as the "last game in town" for big institutions. I expect a
re-run of this.
PES was above $20 and GTE almost reached $9.00 back then.
DJI's Target Now Is 25,000
Although, a Buy B9 brings an average DJI gain of more than
10%, we still have
to be concerned that DIA and SPY are below the resistance of their 65-dma. Profit-
taking there is certainly a possibility. But, for now, we have to be encouraged by
the fact
that the steep Closing Power downtrends for DIA and SPY have been broken.
As for what is bringing about the rally, let us hope that the market is correctly
anticipating peaceful changes on the Korean Penninsula. I'm also thinking that
Trumps recent appointments to the FOMC clearly understand the importance to
Trump and the Republican Party that the economy not be allowed to falter now
because of a market decline of more than 10% from its highs.
Whatever, the thinking behind the rally, most chartists have spotted the just completed
fifth
successful test of 23400-23500. There is no point in being short the general market.
We will cover most of our shorts on the Tiger Stocks' Hotline. Technically,
the market
must now rally to determine where the overhead resistance is.
Watch AAPL. This
stock played a big role in last week's turnaround. The news
there is that both Warren Buffett and AAPL itself are big buyers. It is reported
that the company has using its repartiated billions of dollars in overseas profits
to purchasing massive amounts of its own shares, more shares in the last three
months
than ever before. AAPL, of course, plays a big role in the QQQ and the NASDAQ,
both of which are bullishly back above their 65-dma and also in the DJIA. AAPL
made a new high on Friday but still shows a negative IP21. That makes it risky to
chase in here.
Charts 5/4/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/4/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/504/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/504/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/04/18
Closing Powers are still apt to falter when they meet their
falling 21-dma.
DIA and FAS show weak relative strength.
IWM is 5.2% stronger over last 50 trading days. Only it has positive IP21
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 242.52 3.42 241.54 -8.9% Bearish BLUE -.05 ------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7209.62 121.47 7066.27 63.2% Bearish BLUE -.066 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.02 3.4 264.51 -10.2% Bearish BLUE -.05 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 164.87 3.07 160.94 85.9% Bearish BLUE -.069 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 345.19 4.6 340.51 16% ---- BLUE -.077 .037
--------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------
IWM 155.73 1.92 153.32 33.7% ---- BLUE .006 .052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 63.55 2.07 63.46 -80.7% Bearish BLUE -.162 -.049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 33.66 .49 34.17 -251.7% Bearish BLUE -.149 -.014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 137.72 9.26 121.91 461.1% Bearish BLUE -.057 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 124.27 6.7 112.76 398.9% Bearish BLUE -.015 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 102.35 1.07 103.65 -157.6% Bearish BLUE -.119 -.028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.54 .26 124.59 -38.6% ---- BLUE -.093 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.2 .33 27.14 -3.7% Bullish BLUE .217 .146
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.46 .97 21.37 -132% Bullish BLUE .074 .22
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.7 .33 33.9 -17.9% Bullish BLUE .431 .1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.33 .03 24.13 61.9% Bullish RED .162 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.64 .01 101.7 2.5% Bearish RED -.026 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.51 .23 51.56 -19.4% Bullish BLUE -.035 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.88 -.16 6.72 219.4% Bullish RED .43 .113
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32 .19 32.82 -104.6% Bullish BLUE .132 -.142
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.14 .18 21.02 -35.8% ---- BLUE .075 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 183.83 6.94 165.26 632.5% Bullish BLUE .001 .094
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1048.21 24.49 1017.33 88.5% ---- BLUE -.104 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95.16 1.09 93.52 -35% Bearish BLUE -.05 .065
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1580.95 8.88 1566.13 26.5% Bearish BLUE -.068 .092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 176.61 2.59 172 86.8% ---- BLUE .007 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 239.06 6.07 224.9 279.7% ---- BLUE .029 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 334.43 3.74 333.56 -97.2% Bearish BLUE .043 -.032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 234.94 1.53 238.33 -102.8% Bearish BLUE -.298 -.073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185.03 1.84 184.8 -38.6% Bullish BLUE .041 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 146.37 2.59 144.36 57.2% Bearish BLUE -.161 -.051
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180504
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 190 OK
NEWLOWS 45
MAXCP 99 OK
MINCP 56
TTTNH 104 OK
TTTNL 84
FASTUP 159 positive
FASTDOWN 140
CPCROSSA 151 Bullish
CPCROSSD 27
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 10
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180504
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 99 67 68 %
COMODITY 56 11 20 %
HACKERS 24 4 17 %
COMPUTER 23 3 13 %
SOFTWARE 65 8 12 %
OILGAS 136 12 9 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
NIFTY 29 2 7 %
UTILITY 42 3 7 %
GOLD 50 3 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
NASD-100 89 5 6 %
BIOTECH 383 18 5 %
FIDSTKS 189 9 5 %
RUS-1000 825 41 5 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
SP500 481 21 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
REIT 176 6 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 4 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180504
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 56 14 25 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOFTWARE 65 3 5 %
ETFS 61 2 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
BIOTECH 383 5 1 %
ELECTRON 177 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
OILGAS 136 2 1 %
RUS-1000 825 10 1 %
SP500 481 4 1 %
|
TABLE 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/4/18
BEARISH = 28
BULLISH = 18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 1 .857 .857 1
REIT .801 .732 .693 .71 .659 .715
UTILITY .785 .714 .738 .761 .738 .738
HACKERS .75 .625 .625 .625 .708 .708
OILGAS .72 .683 .735 .72 .727 .705
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .428 .428 .571
SOFTWARE .707 .63 .646 .661 .646 .661
COMPUTER .608 .565 .521 .478 .391 .478
NIFTY .586 .482 .482 .517 .448 .551
REGBANKS .575 .393 .424 .484 .484 .545
COAL .555 .333 .333 .222 .333 .222
FOOD .555 .666 .666 .666 .777 .888
GUNS .555 .444 .388 .388 .277 .277
GOLD .54 .54 .5 .4 .42 .58
COMODITY .535 .535 .535 .517 .517 .571
GAMING .535 .357 .357 .321 .321 .285
HOMEBLDG .529 .529 .411 .411 .411 .647
RETAIL .509 .49 .528 .584 .622 .698
N=18
============================================================================================
GREEN .5 .466 .366 .4 .433 .5
============================================================================================
RUS-1000 .495 .41 .421 .463 .447 .496
NASD-100 .483 .393 .404 .438 .426 .46
SOLAR .476 .476 .476 .476 .523 .571
INDMATER .458 .4 .388 .376 .376 .423
SP500 .455 .374 .386 .446 .446 .48
CHEM .451 .37 .387 .403 .338 .451
TRANSP .45 .35 .4 .5 .5 .6
FIDSTKS .439 .37 .349 .412 .407 .423
DOWJONES .433 .4 .4 .366 .466 .5
SP-100 .416 .343 .343 .385 .427 .468
INDEXES .415 .266 .307 .312 .292 .348
BIG17 .413 .347 .391 .326 .304 .304
CHINA .403 .354 .338 .338 .338 .338
SEMI .398 .335 .312 .25 .171 .203
BIOTECH .396 .381 .422 .394 .37 .42
ELECTRON .389 .322 .322 .265 .192 .242
DJI-13 .384 .384 .384 .307 .307 .307
ETFS .36 .344 .278 .278 .311 .36
FINANCE .351 .307 .362 .34 .329 .439
INFRA .342 .342 .314 .257 .314 .314
MILITARY .315 .236 .236 .263 .263 .394
AUTO .3 .25 .25 .225 .175 .225
BEVERAGE .3 .25 .25 .4 .4 .4
JETS .3 .3 .3 .5 .4 .4
INSURANC .25 .187 .218 .343 .343 .437
BONDFUND .243 .207 .18 .162 .126 .126
PIPELINE .142 .142 .285 .285 .428 .285
BIGBANKS 0 0 0 .142 .142 .142
N=28
|
==============================================================================
5/3/2018 Yesterday's Buy B9 was repeated today. The track record
of Buy B9s
is very good, but as I noted last night, none of the past B9s in May had such
a low IP21 (current Accumulation Index reading). That could create a
problem here, just as the three S9s in the last three months might.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Flash: Boosting the market today is the Labor Department's Job Report
Payroll
employment increases by 164,000 in April; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I also admit to being worried also by the fact that resistance posed the falling
65-dma in the DJI is not far enough overhead to permit much of a rally and
also by how quickly the DJI jumped up 350 points in only two hours from its
critical support level. It was as though someone with a lot of money drove the
DJI up away from the key support just so that that key level might not be taken
out by big sellers playing with leveraged ETFs and futures.
I would suggest that another test of 23200-23500 would seem likely. If you look
back at other recent cases where we had a highly visible, well-tested support, it may
be that the DJI will have to make a nominal new closing low just below the support
before it can turn up. This would be a "bear trap". See some
examples below.
2010
Bear Trap
|
2011
Bear Trap
|
2013
Bear Trap
|
Another Failed Rally?
And who's to say, tomorrow will be an up-day. I keep
saying that Professionals
seem very bearish and are very quick to sell into all rallies. We see this in lots
of the statistics again tonight. Most of the recent Candle-Sticks for the major
market ETFs have been red (bearish). Secondly, the key ETFs' Closing Powers are
still in downtrends and at 12-month lows. Thirdly, the number of MINCPS still
dwarfes
the number of MAXCPs. Fourthly, Day Traders are bearish many more stocks than
they are bullish. And fifth, big down-day stocks vastly outnumber the stocks making
big gains on high volume. (See these statistics in Table 2).
Very Weak Closing Powers - Professional Selling
Strong Openings - Public Buying
Charts of DIA and SPY
|
|
Limited Upside Potential?
The increasing pace downward of the 65-dma for DIA, NASDAQ, QQQ
and SPY show that the upside potential now is strictly limited. It's not clear
at this point how Peerless can profitably get a Sell signal to reverse the
present Buy B9. As a result, I think that we should still want the CP
downtrend-
lines to break before we can turn bullish on a particular ETF, especially DIA.
There appears to be a lot more upside potential in Oil
Stocks. But that
will work against the general market because it signifies inflation and rising
interest rates.
Why Are Professionals Still Selling?
The reason is still not clear. More important is that
they are.
We can guess, though. Today's surprise admission by the President that he personally
was responsible for paying off a porn star right before the last election so she would
not reveal his infidelity to his family-values supporters and that his personal lawyer
lied about making the pay-off himself, brings, I would think, the Special
Prosecutor's
noose that much closer to Trump. This cannot help the market. Perhaps, this is
the
sort of news that Professionals are expecting.
But it may be something else is causing Prodessional selling. To impeach Trump in
1919 (and that's a year away), the Democrats will need to win back the House of
Representatives in the Fall. The President could still pull off two diplomatic
successes that would make all the talk about "Russia-Gate" pale. He just
might
be able to bring about the de-nuclearization of North Korea and he may gain
some bragging rights in the coming Chinese trade talks.
Most Americans vote their pocket books. If the DJI does
not hold above 23200-
23400, I would think it will fall back to 20500. That could lose the control of
the House for Republicans. So, a lot depends on whether this support that is
being tested will hold. And Wall Street is of two minds about it, right now.
The Oil stocks still look like the best longs. There remain lots of Bearish MINCPs
to hedge with while holding long IWM, because it has been the best perfoming
major market ETF for the last two months.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/03/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 239.1 -.01 242.95 -83.2% Bearish BLUE -.071 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7088.15 -12.75 7119.8 -21.5% Bearish BLUE -.101 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 262.62 -.58 266.56 -69.6% Bearish BLUE -.078 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 161.8 -.02 162.09 -5.9% Bearish BLUE -.101 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 340.59 -.49 344.1 -59.3% Bearish BLUE -.082 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 153.81 -.84 154.69 -35.6% Bearish RED .009 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 61.48 -.86 64.57 -213.5% Bearish RED -.205 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 33.17 -1.06 35.38 -165.7% Bearish RED -.116 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 128.46 2.28 126.09 -19% Bearish BLUE -.133 -.141
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 117.57 .93 115.03 74.5% Bearish BLUE -.075 -.017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 101.28 -1.4 105.61 -192.8% Bearish RED -.178 -.037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.28 .63 125.5 -27.7% Bearish RED -.115 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .096
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.87 -.28 27.22 -93.9% Bullish RED .209 .165
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 19.49 -1.54 21.01 -517% Bullish RED .112 .183
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.37 .32 33.82 -56.6% Bullish BLUE .404 .111
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.3 -.1 24.03 51.7% Bullish ---- .197 .068
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.63 .26 101.59 10.3% Bearish ---- -.044 .035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.28 -.07 51.71 8.7% Bullish ---- .012 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 7.04 .13 6.58 439% Bullish BLUE .477 .158
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.81 -.61 32.68 -114.9% Bearish BLUE .085 -.155
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.96 .27 21.29 -66.6% ---- ---- .068 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 176.89 .32 162.32 378.2% ---- BLUE -.079 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1023.72 -.66 1030.05 -79.2% Bearish BLUE -.165 -.044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 94.07 .56 95.82 -10.1% Bearish BLUE -.071 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1572.07 2.39 1572.62 173.2% Bearish BLUE -.057 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 174.02 -2.05 173.59 -4% Bearish RED -.008 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 232.99 6.68 226.33 171.9% Bearish BLUE -.044 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 330.69 6.5 340.88 -181% Bearish BLUE .045 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 233.41 -.64 239.8 -140.5% Bearish BLUE -.306 -.079
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 183.19 -2.72 186.46 -68.2% ---- RED .037 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 143.78 -.08 144.72 -87.4% Bearish BLUE -.175 -.039
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180503
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 107
NEWLOWS 124 ugh
MAXCP 77
MINCP 356 ugh
TTTNH 80
TTTNL 543 ugh
FASTUP 113
FASTDOWN 172 ugh
CPCROSSA 50
CPCROSSD 101 ugh
BIGVOLUP 1
BIGVODN 23 ugh
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180503
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 77 41 53 %
EDU 7 1 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
HACKERS 24 3 13 %
SOFTWARE 65 6 9 %
OILGAS 137 9 7 %
TRANSP 20 1 5 %
BIG17 48 2 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 5 3 %
FINANCE 91 3 3 %
RUS-1000 825 28 3 %
SEMI 128 4 3 %
BIOTECH 383 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 3 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
REIT 176 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SP500 481 11 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180503
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
MINCP 356 78 22 %
BEVERAGE 20 4 20 %
PIPELINE 7 1 14 %
INSURANC 32 4 13 %
SP500 481 34 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
INDMATER 85 5 6 %
SOFTWARE 65 4 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
FIDSTKS 189 10 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
RUS-1000 825 45 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
BIOTECH 383 17 4 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
OILGAS 137 5 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ETFS 65 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDEXES 195 6 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
BONDFUND 111 2 2 %
ELECTRON 177 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/3/18
Bearish = 35
Bullish = 12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 .857 .857 1 .857
REIT .732 .693 .71 .659 .71 .568
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .428 .428 .571 .428
UTILITY .714 .738 .761 .738 .738 .714
OILGAS .678 .729 .715 .722 .686 .693
|
FOOD .666 .666 .666 .777 .888 .555
SOFTWARE .63 .646 .661 .646 .661 .646
HACKERS .625 .625 .625 .708 .708 .75
COMPUTER .565 .521 .478 .391 .434 .434
GOLD .54 .5 .4 .42 .58 .56
COMODITY .535 .535 .517 .517 .571 .535
HOMEBLDG .529 .411 .411 .411 .588 .588
============================================================================================
RETAIL .49 .528 .584 .622 .679 .622
NIFTY .482 .482 .517 .448 .551 .586
SOLAR .476 .476 .476 .523 .571 .571
GREEN .466 .366 .4 .433 .5 .5
GUNS .444 .388 .388 .277 .277 .444
RUS-1000 .41 .421 .463 .447 .493 .48
DOWJONES .4 .4 .366 .466 .5 .5
INDMATER .4 .388 .376 .376 .435 .494
NASD-100 .393 .404 .438 .426 .46 .426
REGBANKS .393 .424 .484 .484 .545 .515
DJI-13 .384 .384 .307 .307 .307 .307
BIOTECH .381 .422 .394 .37 .415 .412
BIG17 .375 .416 .354 .333 .312 .354
SP500 .374 .386 .446 .446 .478 .453
CHEM .37 .387 .403 .338 .435 .5
FIDSTKS .37 .349 .412 .407 .423 .423
GAMING .357 .357 .321 .321 .285 .321
CHINA .354 .338 .338 .338 .338 .306
TRANSP .35 .4 .5 .5 .65 .45
SP-100 .343 .343 .385 .427 .468 .427
INFRA .342 .314 .257 .314 .314 .342
ETFS .338 .276 .276 .307 .353 .307
SEMI .335 .312 .25 .171 .21 .234
COAL .333 .333 .222 .333 .222 .222
ELECTRON .322 .322 .265 .192 .237 .259
FINANCE .307 .362 .34 .329 .417 .439
JETS .3 .3 .5 .4 .5 .2
INDEXES .266 .307 .312 .292 .328 .353
AUTO .25 .25 .225 .175 .225 .225
BEVERAGE .25 .25 .4 .4 .4 .4
MILITARY .236 .236 .263 .263 .394 .421
BONDFUND .207 .18 .162 .126 .117 .063
INSURANC .187 .218 .343 .343 .437 .468
PIPELINE .142 .285 .285 .428 .142 .285
BIGBANKS 0 0 .142 .142 .142 .142
N= 35
|
==============================================================================
5/2/2018 Today Peerless gave a Buy B9 The DJI closed 1.6% below a rising 21-dma
with the P-I still positive, +110. We also can see from our Peerless chart that
the three key indicators in the DJI chart are rising. Peerless users must now cover
their shorts of DIA. But a closer test of 23200-23400 would not be inconsistent
with the new Buy B9.
The sharply falling Closing Powers for DIA and SPY make me hesitate to recommend
them until their Closing Powers downtrend-lines are broken. DIA has been the
weakest major market ETF for the last month. All its rallies seem to quickly fail.
And of course, a breakdown below DIA-232 (or 23200-23400 for the DJI) would
have to be judged a Sell S10 and put all the major market ETFs at great risk.
Buy IWM and some of the oil stocks mentioned below.
BUY B9s Are Reliably Bullish.
My most recent study shows that there have been 58
Buy B9s (where the signals are
all separated from each other by at least a week) since 1928. They averaged a
gain of 10.8% at the time of the next Peerless Sell. Only 2 produced a loss.
Note
that 11 of the 58 Buy B9s would have have required a trader of the DJI to sustain
a paper loss 1% to 3.7%. In 27 cases, they called the bottom perfectly and there
was no paper loss. The other 20 would have brought a maximum paper loss of 1%.
May Buy B9s have all been profitable. The average gain was 7.3% and the
average Paper loss for May B9s was 1%. But none of the May B9s
occurred with an IP21 so negative. It is now -.096.
What To Do.
So, while traders should cover their shorts on DIA because of the Buy B9,
we have to be cautious about buying DIA. Instead, I would Buy IWM. Of
all the major market ETFs, it shows the most positive IP21 (current Accumulation)
and ITRS (stock's or ETF's 50-day pct change minus DJI's 50-day pct change.)
Stay short your bearish MINCPs. They remain weak. Buy some of the bullish
MAXCPs, low priced oil stocks like PES and LGCY and some of the oil refineries
that now could be takeover candidates: Delek Holdings (DK), Holly (HFC) and
VLO.
JUNE Buy B9s: 1929-2018
DJI Gain
Paper Loss
19350531 B9 110.64
.198 none
0
la/ma=.973 AROC=+.203 P=32 (-11) IP21= -.026 V=-32
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19670519 B9 874.55
.063 844.77
-.0340 6/5
la/ma=.981 AROC=-.054 P=+9 (-22) IP21= +.008 V=+5
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19750528 B9 817.04
.058 815.06
-.0024 5/29
la/ma=.978 AROC=+.100 P=+69 (-7 ) IP21= -.002 V=+0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19770525 B9 903.24
.028 898.83
-.0048 5/27
la/ma=.971 AROC=-.158 P=+47 (-26 ) IP21= +.006 V=+0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
19960507 B9 5420.95 .06
none
0
la/ma=.979 AROC=-.372 P=+41 (+82 ) IP21=-.034 V=-4
--------------------------------------------------------------------
19990524 B9 10654.67 .030
10466.9 -.0176 5/27
la/ma=.978 AROC=-.038 P=+31 (-59 ) IP21=+.028 V=-37
------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg.Gain =.073 Avg.Paper Loss= .0103
5/1/2018 B9 23924.98
la/ma=.984 AROC= -.053 P=+110 (-74 ) IP21=-.096 V=-33
Charts 5/2/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
5/2/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/502/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/502/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/02/18
The 5-dma trends are mixed.
Most still show falling Cloing Powers.
But now most of the major ETFs show a positive IP21 (except FAS, SOXL and TECL).
IWM shows the highest ITRS and IP21 and shows a rising 5-dma.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 239.11 -1.65 243.12 -32.9% Bearish RED -.056 None
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7100.9 -29.8 7118.68 68.5% Bearish RED -.05 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 263.2 -1.78 266.31 -8.1% Bearish RED -.074 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 161.82 -.96 161.99 98.3% Bearish RED -.081 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 341.08 -.63 344.65 -33% Bearish RED -.047 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.65 .58 154.91 14.6% ---- BLUE .047 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 62.34 -1.66 64.2 -61.8% Bearish RED -.198 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.23 .36 34.31 196.3% Bullish BLUE -.005 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 126.18 -1.76 128.94 186% Bearish RED -.118 -.177
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 116.64 -.42 115.85 295.3% Bearish RED -.052 -.038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 102.68 -1.37 105.3 -27.8% Bearish RED -.098 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.65 -.06 124.97 -70.5% Bearish RED -.125 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .102
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.15 .24 27.38 18.4% Bullish BLUE .256 .162
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.03 -.25 21.69 11.8% Bullish RED .189 .175
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.05 -.25 33.75 -49.1% Bullish BLUE .354 .109
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.4 .11 24.05 95.5% Bullish BLUE .23 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.37 .02 101.42 11.8% Bearish ---- -.038 .036
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.35 -.05 51.19 65.3% Bullish RED .024 .079
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.91 -.03 6.45 270.8% Bullish ---- .405 .134
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.42 -.3 32.56 33.7% ---- RED .083 -.097
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.69 -.19 21.24 -54.6% ---- RED .07 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 176.57 7.47 164.22 391.7% Bullish BLUE -.064 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1024.38 -12.93 1040.04 15.5% Bearish RED -.135 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 93.51 -1.49 94.26 63.7% Bearish RED -.039 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1569.68 -12.58 1517.96 355.6% Bearish RED -.035 .11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 176.07 2.21 174.16 479.9% Bearish BLUE .05 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 226.31 -.83 225.22 215.4% Bearish RED -.002 -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 324.19 -5.35 342.79 -276.2% Bearish RED .076 -.041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 234.05 -2.62 240.09 -108.4% Bearish RED -.328 -.075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185.91 1.28 185.72 231.8% Bullish BLUE .078 .037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 143.86 -.56 146.31 -45.9% Bearish RED -.168 -.034
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180502
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 124 Bullish
NEWLOWS 102
MAXCP 64
MINCP 406 Professionals remain bearish.
TTTNH 78
TTTNL 366 Day Traders are Bearish
FASTUP 146 Swing Traders are more bullish than bearish.
FASTDOWN 135
CPCROSSA 136 Professions are becoming more bullish.
CPCROSSD 57
BIGVOLUP 6
BIGVODN 20
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180502
No. NHs Pct.
===============================================================
MAXCP 64 26 41 %
EDU 7 2 29 %
HACKERS 24 5 21 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
SOFTWARE 66 5 8 %
BIG17 46 2 4 %
COMPUTER 23 1 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
OILGAS 137 5 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
BIOTECH 383 12 3 %
FINANCE 91 3 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 4 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 3 2 %
INDMATER 85 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 825 20 2 %
SEMI 128 3 2 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 7 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180502
No. NHs Pct.
--------------------------------------------------
BEVERAGE 20 6 30 %
MINCP 406 69 17 %
COMPUTER 23 2 9 %
SP-100 96 8 8 %
DOWJONES 30 2 7 %
SP500 481 34 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
FIDSTKS 189 12 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
RUS-1000 825 43 5 %
BONDFUND 111 4 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
NASD-100 89 4 4 %
BIOTECH 383 10 3 %
ETFS 65 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDEXES 195 5 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 66 2 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
ELECTRON 177 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
OILGAS 137 2 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
SEMI 128 1 1 %
BIG17 46 0 %
BIGBANKS 7 0 %
COAL 9 0 %
COMODITY 56 0 %
DJI-13 13 0 %
EDU 7 0 %
FIDELITY 41 0 %
FINANCE 91 0 %
FOOD 9 0 %
GOLD 50 0 %
HACKERS 24 0 %
HOMEBLDG 17 0 %
HOSPITAL 7 0 %
JETS 10 0 %
NIFTY 29 0 %
PIPELINE 7 0 %
SOLAR 21 0 %
TRANSP 20 0 %
UTILITY 42 0 %
MAXCP 64 0 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/2/18
Bearish = 35
Bullish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 .857 .857 1 .857 1
UTILITY .738 .761 .738 .738 .714 .714
OILGAS .729 .715 .722 .686 .686 .686
HOSPITAL .714 .428 .428 .571 .428 .714
REIT .693 .71 .659 .71 .562 .437
FOOD .666 .666 .777 .888 .555 .555
SOFTWARE .636 .651 .636 .651 .636 .545
HACKERS .625 .625 .708 .708 .75 .708
COMODITY .535 .517 .517 .571 .535 .535
RETAIL .528 .584 .622 .679 .622 .471
COMPUTER .521 .478 .391 .434 .434 .434
N=11
============================================================================================
GOLD .5 .4 .42 .58 .56 .52
============================================================================================
NIFTY .482 .517 .448 .551 .586 .275
SOLAR .476 .476 .523 .571 .571 .428
REGBANKS .424 .484 .484 .545 .515 .575
BIOTECH .422 .394 .37 .415 .412 .383
RUS-1000 .421 .463 .447 .493 .478 .433
HOMEBLDG .411 .411 .411 .588 .588 .352
NASD-100 .404 .438 .426 .46 .426 .348
DOWJONES .4 .366 .466 .5 .5 .366
TRANSP .4 .5 .5 .65 .45 .6
BIG17 .391 .326 .304 .304 .304 .282
GUNS .388 .388 .277 .277 .388 .5
INDMATER .388 .376 .376 .435 .494 .447
CHEM .387 .403 .338 .435 .5 .483
SP500 .386 .446 .446 .478 .451 .407
DJI-13 .384 .307 .307 .307 .307 .23
GREEN .366 .4 .433 .5 .5 .433
FINANCE .362 .34 .329 .417 .428 .406
GAMING .357 .321 .321 .285 .321 .25
FIDSTKS .349 .412 .407 .423 .423 .38
SP-100 .343 .385 .427 .468 .427 .343
CHINA .338 .338 .338 .338 .306 .29
COAL .333 .222 .333 .222 .222 .222
ELECTRON .322 .265 .192 .237 .259 .242
INFRA .314 .257 .314 .314 .342 .257
SEMI .312 .25 .171 .21 .234 .195
INDEXES .307 .312 .292 .328 .348 .312
JETS .3 .5 .4 .5 .2 .4
PIPELINE .285 .285 .428 .142 .285 .142
ETFS .276 .276 .307 .353 .276 .2
AUTO .25 .225 .175 .225 .225 .225
BEVERAGE .25 .4 .4 .4 .4 .25
MILITARY .236 .263 .263 .394 .394 .5
INSURANC .218 .343 .343 .437 .437 .468
BONDFUND .18 .162 .126 .117 .063 .063
BIGBANKS 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
N=35
|
|
|
==============================================================================
5/1/2018 Our Peerless
S9 still operates and the
Closing Powers for the major market ETFs
remain in falling trends. The DJI did rebound a little from its 2% lower band. This
is also approximately where its rising 200-dma crosses. So, one could take profits
from the S9 shorts with this support having held.
But for most of us, I think it would be better to be patient and stay short DIA
and some of the Bearish MINCPs. A breakdown below the 23200-23400 support
remains a distinctly bearish possibility, especially as the market moves towards the more
risky period after Mid-May. The chances are good that the next rally will fail just
the last one did. The key ETFs' Closing Powers are all falling and the falling
65-dma
will likely stop the next rally, should it advance that far.
Follow The DJI's Lead Is The Lesson of Peerless
Should we be worried by the fact that the DJI is weaker than SPY, QQQ or the NASDAQ?
"Not yet" is my answer. These other indexes are still below their falling
65-day moving
averages and show falling Closing Powers.
.
However, if Peerless gives a new Buy Signal and DIA's Closing Power breaks
its downtrend, then I would become bullish, close out the DIA shorts and probably
buy the strongest of the major ETFs, based on IP21 and ITRS levels. (See Table 1)
We learn from history. And market history shows that there are a number of cases
where
the DJI lead the rest of the market much lower. Another way of saying this is that
we just
can't always count on the DJI-30 staying strong until the bull market's "bitter
end" with
a lagging NYSE A/D Line telling us when to sell. There are a number of important
exceptions to this pattern showing the most common way market tops are formed.
By my thinking, we now have three Sell S9s. This shows the market is getting ripe for a
bigger decline. The bull market is now 8 years old. A wave of profit-taking
and a 20%
DJI decline is long over-due. In addition, a breakdown below the well-tested
23200-23400
flat support may, I've suggested, act much like the DJI's breaking a very visible neckline
in
a conspiculously bearish head and shoulders pattern. As I mentioned a few nights
ago,
head/shoulders patterns can by themselves produce major market tops in their own
right.
The bear markets of 1941, 1946, 1962 and 1971 all featured big and ugly head/shoulders
tops, not A/D line divergences.
Rising interest rates and oil prices are quite capable of producing big declines.
More than
Nixon's near impeachment, this is what caused the long bear market from from January
1973 to December 1974. In another case, that of the 1976-1978 bear market, the
DJI
fell for 18 months, even though many Oil and NASDAQ stocks made new highs and held
up very well for the first 8 or 9 months of the DJI's decline. And of course, Oil
stocks
kept rising 8 months after the DJI peaked on October 2007. So, stay long Oil stocks
for now.
Watch Short-Term Rates, Food Commodities and
Oil Most Closely
Today, short-term interest rates came bounding back to their
recent highs. We must also
keep watching the rise now in food commodites as well as oil prices. Their rises could
make the FED become quite "hawkish". What seems, so far, to have
saved the US Bull
Market here is that the Dollar has conveniently turned up as the Euro has become weak
and Gold and Silver are dawdling. (The weakness in the Euro may explain some
of the
over-night gains in the US market's Indexes.) But at some point, Gold will start
rising
and the signs of Inflation will be sufficiently clear to cause the Fed to rush up our
interest
rates and even as the Jobs Reports shows more and more lay-offs. It is this
combination
which will make the market become dangerous. But we are not there yet. Right
now, short-term rates are still 1 1/4% below what I take to be dangerous levels for them,
based on what stopped the Eisenhower bull market in July 1957.
The NASDAQ, QQQ and SPY remain vulnerable, too. They have been unable to rise
above their own 65-day moving averages. Each of their rallies to these levels seems
to
bring a reversal. This shows patient and well-planned big-money selling into
strength.
This is another way to detect important "Distribution". So, it's a
difficult market for most
stock traders on the long side unless they accept very small trading gains on most trades
or play with special situations (like oil refinery takeovers) or do some buying in the
Food ETNs, like CORN and WEAT, that have recently turned up convincingly from their
65-dma.
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 05/01/18
The 5-dma trends and IP21s are mixed for the major ETFs,
but most still show falling Cloing Powers.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 240.76 -.78 240.7 13.9% Bearish BLUE .06 ======
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7130.7 64.43 7003.74 87.3% Bearish BLUE -.012 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 264.98 .47 263.63 37.8% Bearish BLUE .009 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 162.78 1.84 158.65 134.6% Bearish BLUE -.003 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 341.71 1.2 W343.34 -21.9% ---- BLUE .045 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.07 .75 W154.2 -11.7% ---- BLUE .097 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64 .54 63.13 43.9% Bearish BLUE -.127 -.06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 33.87 -.3 32.89 226.2% ---- ---- .024 -.056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 127.94 6.03 121.52 241.4% Bearish BLUE -.068 -.122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 117.06 4.3 109.9 318.1% Bearish BLUE .03 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 104.05 .4 103.26 37.4% Bearish BLUE -.037 -.013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 123.71 -.88 W125.41 -100.5% ---- RED -.081 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .106
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.91 -.23 W27.05 16.6% Bullish RED .284 .148
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.28 -.09 20.98 211% Bullish ---- .274 .202
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.3 -.6 W33.38 -14.9% Bullish RED .313 .12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.29 .16 23.94 93.8% Bullish ---- .169 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.35 -.35 101.13 0% Bearish RED -.067 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.4 -.16 50.68 71.3% Bullish RED .04 .07
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.94 .22 6.55 428.4% Bullish BLUE .422 .124
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.72 -.1 32.2 -26% ---- BLUE .138 -.138
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.88 -.14 W20.92 -21.3% Bullish RED .124 -.047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 169.1 3.84 163.65 188.2% ---- BLUE -.072 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1037.31 19.98 1021.18 84.5% Bearish BLUE -.075 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95 1.48 92.31 100.2% Bearish BLUE .03 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1582.26 16.13 1460.17 403.1% Bearish BLUE .013 .137
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 173.86 1.86 159.69 422.2% Bearish BLUE .086 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 227.14 2.24 216.66 133.3% Bearish BLUE .001 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 329.54 -4.02 W342.86 7.1% Bearish RED .15 -.027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 236.67 -1.66 W239.23 -121.3% Bearish RED -.27 -.071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 184.63 -.17 177.39 229.8% Bullish BLUE .069 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 144.42 .06 W145.19 -.7% Bearish BLUE -.112 -.031
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180501
Directory Number
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 92
NEWLOWS 85 Bears are not in control.
MAXCP 33
MINCP 248 Professionals are mostly bearish.
TTTNH 50
TTTNL 489 Day Traders are mostly bearish.
FASTUP 110
FASTDOWN 132 Swing Traders are mixed.
CPCROSSA 160 Professionals are not increasing in numbers.
CPCROSSD 28
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 17 Dumping continues.
TRAPDOOR 28
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180501
No. NHs Pct.
MAXCP 33 18 55 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
SOFTWARE 66 4 6 %
BIG17 48 2 4 %
BIOTECH 382 14 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 55 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 137 3 2 %
REIT 176 3 2 %
RUS-1000 825 14 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
INDMATER 85 1 1 %
SEMI 127 1 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 6 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180501
It is bullish that new lows do not dominate any industry.
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MINCP 248 46 19 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
CHEM 62 7 11 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
INFRA 35 2 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
BONDFUND 111 5 5 %
INDMATER 85 4 5 %
BIOTECH 382 14 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 7 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ELECTRON 176 5 3 %
RUS-1000 825 28 3 %
ETFS 65 1 2 %
OILGAS 137 3 2 %
SEMI 127 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 66 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
5/1/18
Bearish = 35
Bullish = 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 .857 1 .857 1 1
UTILITY .761 .738 .738 .714 .714 .714
OILGAS .715 .722 .686 .686 .686 .664
REIT .71 .659 .71 .562 .414 .431
FOOD .666 .777 .888 .555 .555 .222
SOFTWARE .651 .636 .651 .636 .545 .666
HACKERS .625 .708 .708 .75 .708 .75
RETAIL .584 .622 .679 .622 .452 .433
NIFTY .517 .448 .551 .586 .275 .31
COMODITY .509 .509 .563 .527 .545 .527
N=10
============================================================================================
JETS .5 .4 .5 .2 .4 .3
TRANSP .5 .5 .65 .45 .55 .3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGBANKS .484 .484 .545 .515 .575 .636
COMPUTER .478 .391 .434 .434 .434 .478
SOLAR .476 .523 .571 .571 .428 .523
RUS-1000 .463 .447 .493 .478 .429 .416
SP500 .446 .446 .478 .451 .403 .382
NASD-100 .438 .426 .46 .426 .348 .337
HOSPITAL .428 .428 .571 .428 .714 .714
FIDSTKS .412 .407 .423 .423 .38 .391
HOMEBLDG .411 .411 .588 .588 .294 .235
CHEM .403 .338 .435 .5 .483 .435
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .4 .4 .25 .35
GOLD .4 .42 .58 .56 .5 .6
GREEN .4 .433 .5 .5 .433 .433
BIOTECH .392 .371 .416 .413 .384 .366
GUNS .388 .277 .277 .388 .5 .444
SP-100 .385 .427 .468 .427 .343 .343
INDMATER .376 .376 .435 .494 .447 .4
DOWJONES .366 .466 .5 .5 .366 .4
BIG17 .354 .333 .333 .333 .291 .291
INSURANC .343 .343 .437 .437 .468 .468
FINANCE .34 .329 .417 .428 .406 .461
CHINA .338 .338 .338 .306 .29 .29
GAMING .321 .321 .285 .321 .25 .321
INDEXES .312 .292 .328 .348 .317 .312
DJI-13 .307 .307 .307 .307 .23 .153
PIPELINE .285 .428 .142 .285 .142 0
ETFS .276 .307 .353 .276 .2 .23
ELECTRON .267 .193 .238 .261 .244 .284
MILITARY .263 .263 .394 .394 .526 .5
INFRA .257 .314 .314 .342 .257 .228
SEMI .251 .173 .212 .236 .196 .228
AUTO .225 .175 .225 .225 .225 .225
COAL .222 .333 .222 .222 .222 .222
BONDFUND .162 .126 .117 .063 .054 .081
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
N=35
|
==============================================================================
4/30/2018 Professionals have some "dirt" on the market, to use Washington
DC terms.
The Peerless S9 still operates.
Professionals were quick to sell heavily once
again on a higher opening. The DJI turned a 160 point gain today into a 155
points loss. The QQQ was stopped cold at its falling 65-dma. Day Traders had
a wonderful day. They made money even going short when the DJI fell below
the previous close. They will now be emboldened to sell into any new rallies.
What is striking is that Professionals are now bearish on 10 times more stocks than
they are bullish. We see this in the lopsided 10:1 ratio of Closing Power new lows
to Closing Power new highs. We also see this in the fact that the major market ETFs'
Closing Powers (for DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, FAS, SOXL and TECL) each made
a 12 month-new low far ahead of their falling prices even though they are still holding
well above their key support levels. And we see it in the fact that the Hourly DJIA
volume expanded again on the decline. It is reliably bearish when the Hourly
DISI-OBV makes a new low far ahead of DJI prices
.
Professional Selling in Key ETFs is Quite Pronounced.
------------------------------------------------------
4/30 Key Support
------- --------------
DIA 241.54 232.50
CP new
12-mo low.
Note the developing continuing H/S in the Hourly DJI
and DIA neckline at 238.
SPY 264.51 253.30
CP new
12-mo low.
QQQ 160.94 150.00
P new
12-mo low.
IWM 153.32 142.62
CP new
12-mo low.
FAS 63.46 57.45
CP new
12-mo low
SOXL 121.91 115.84
CP new
12-mo low
TECL 112.76 94.69
CP new
12-mo low
Our Stocks' Hotline is short lots of the Bearish MINCPs. That is what I've
suggested here, besides shorting DIA. If you must be long, I have recommended
that it be in Oil ETFs and the highest IP21 Oil Stocks. That strategy paid off
nicely today, if you went long refiner ANDV when it made a new high at 125
last week with a confirming high IP21 of .292 and an AI/200 of 159.
Today, Marathon is reported to be bidding $150/share to take it over. There
may be other refiners who will be bid for. VLO is making new highs and
has an IP21 of .37. Look also at HFC. The Trump Administration will be
be very helpful here, posing no unforeseen anti-trust problems and no unduly
strict environmental requirements on this industry. Meanwhile, oil prices are rising
convincingly.
Another group for longs to consider is in food commodities. DBC, the ETN
for food commodites looks technically strong. Even better, I would say, is
WEAT. Note the cup and handle pattern, the B7 and rising Closing Power
plus the positive Accumulation Index. I would not buy CANE, despite its
price strength, because its IP21 is negative.
Charts 4/30/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/30/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/430/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/430/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/30/18
So many 5-dma and Bearish Closing Power Trends cannot be good!
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 241.54 -1.41 240.09 -58% Bearish RED -.002 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7066.27 -53.53 7007.35 -44% Bearish RED -.08 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 264.51 -2.05 262.98 -38.8% Bearish RED -.058 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 160.94 -1.15 158.46 -29.6% Bearish RED -.077 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 340.51 -3.59 343.21 -76.8% Bearish RED -.044 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 153.32 -1.37 154.43 -64.6% Bearish RED -.003 .047
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 63.46 -1.11 63.44 -93.8% Bearish RED -.172 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.17 -1.21 32.34 302.3% Bearish RED -.051 -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 121.91 -4.18 121.95 -123.5% Bearish RED -.136 -.171
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 112.76 -2.27 109.89 -140.3% Bearish RED -.033 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103.65 -1.96 103.27 -54.6% Bearish RED -.118 -.021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.59 -.91 126.23 -41% Bullish BLUE -.044 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .105
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.14 -.08 26.82 20.3% Bullish ---- .258 .165
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.37 .36 20.39 19% Bullish BLUE .19 .188
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.9 .08 33.4 -20.8% Bullish BLUE .261 .146
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.13 .1 23.84 54.3% Bullish ---- .162 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.7 .11 101.35 11.3% Bearish BLUE -.045 .043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.56 -.15 50.67 120.8% Bullish RED .037 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.72 .14 6.38 341.2% Bullish BLUE .204 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.82 .14 32.89 158.8% ---- RED .086 -.135
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.02 -.27 20.97 -7.1% Bullish RED .111 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 165.26 2.94 162.94 .6% Bearish BLUE -.149 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1017.33 -12.72 1019.98 -242% Bearish RED -.123 -.023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 93.52 -2.3 93.12 -97.2% Bearish RED -.036 .053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1566.13 -6.49 1460.09 160.3% Bearish RED -.057 .115
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 172 -1.59 159.69 184.9% Bearish RED .029 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 224.9 -1.43 221.2 22.9% Bearish RED -.069 -.044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 333.56 -7.32 329.06 -77.9% Bearish RED .136 -.021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 238.33 -1.47 242.49 -172.6% Bearish RED -.294 -.066
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 184.8 -1.66 176.26 197.6% Bullish RED .011 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 144.36 -.36 144.44 -327.7% Bearish RED -.164 -.054
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180430
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 68
NEWLOWS 83 Bearish
MAXCP 45
MINCP 546 Professionals were very bearish.
TTTNH 69
TTTNL 500 Day Traders are also 10:1 bearish.
FASTUP 80
FASTDOWN 168 Swing traders are 2:1 bearish.
CPCROSSA 43
CPCROSSD 193 Professionals rushed to bearish side today.
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 20 Lots of stocks being dumped.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180430
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 45 18 40 %
COMODITY 56 4 7 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
SOFTWARE 66 3 5 %
GOLD 50 2 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
OILGAS 137 6 4 %
AUTO 40 1 3 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
BIOTECH 381 8 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 7 1 %
SEMI 127 1 1 %
SP500 481 3 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180430
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
CHEM 62 7 11 %
MINCP 546 62 11 %
COAL 10 1 10 %
DJI-13 13 1 8 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
INFRA 35 2 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
SEMI 127 7 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 381 18 5 %
BONDFUND 111 5 5 %
ELECTRON 176 9 5 %
INDMATER 86 4 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
SP-100 96 5 5 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
RUS-1000 825 29 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FIDSTKS 189 5 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
ETFS 65 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 66 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 137 2 1 %
REIT 176 2 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/30/18
Bearish = 36
Bullish = 10
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 1 .857 1 1 .857
FOOD .777 .888 .555 .555 .222 .222
UTILITY .738 .738 .714 .714 .69 .69
OILGAS .722 .686 .686 .686 .656 .686
HACKERS .708 .708 .75 .708 .75 .791
REIT .659 .71 .562 .414 .42 .357
SOFTWARE .636 .651 .636 .545 .651 .681
RETAIL .622 .679 .622 .452 .415 .452
SOLAR .523 .571 .571 .428 .523 .523
COMODITY .517 .571 .535 .553 .535 .482
N= 10
===============================================================================================
TRANSP .5 .65 .45 .55 .3 .65
===============================================================================================
REGBANKS .484 .545 .515 .575 .606 .545
DOWJONES .466 .5 .5 .366 .4 .4
NIFTY .448 .551 .586 .275 .31 .413
RUS-1000 .447 .493 .478 .429 .413 .456
SP500 .446 .478 .451 .403 .382 .432
GREEN .433 .5 .5 .433 .433 .466
HOSPITAL .428 .571 .428 .714 .714 .714
PIPELINE .428 .142 .285 .142 0 .285
SP-100 .427 .468 .427 .343 .333 .416
NASD-100 .426 .46 .426 .348 .337 .404
GOLD .42 .58 .56 .5 .6 .46
HOMEBLDG .411 .588 .588 .294 .176 .176
FIDSTKS .407 .423 .423 .38 .391 .465
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .4 .25 .35 .35
JETS .4 .5 .2 .4 .3 .5
COMPUTER .391 .434 .434 .434 .478 .478
BIOTECH .372 .417 .414 .385 .37 .398
INDMATER .372 .43 .488 .441 .395 .453
INSURANC .343 .437 .437 .468 .437 .5
CHEM .338 .435 .5 .483 .435 .548
CHINA .338 .338 .306 .29 .29 .306
FINANCE .329 .417 .428 .406 .461 .461
GAMING .321 .285 .321 .25 .321 .5
INFRA .314 .314 .342 .257 .228 .228
DJI-13 .307 .307 .307 .23 .153 .153
ETFS .307 .353 .276 .2 .215 .292
BIG17 .304 .304 .304 .282 .282 .347
COAL .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3
INDEXES .287 .328 .348 .317 .317 .374
GUNS .277 .277 .388 .5 .444 .555
MILITARY .263 .394 .394 .526 .5 .578
ELECTRON .193 .238 .261 .244 .284 .289
AUTO .175 .225 .225 .225 .225 .2
SEMI .173 .212 .236 .196 .228 .212
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
BONDFUND .126 .117 .063 .054 .081 .036
N = 36
|
|
|
==============================================================================
4/27/2018 The
Peerless S9 still operates. Be patient if you are
short. The S9 could fail.
But first we will need to see the DJI, the SP-500, NASDAQ and QQQ
get past the resistance of their falling 65-dma. In addition, I have to point
out that the key general market ETFs' Closing Powers are all still falling. So,
we must be particularly wary of declines following up-openings. The DJI's falling
resistance line is quite important.
We are not apt to see a fourth S9 if the DJI should rally to
the upper band
at 25000. But unless Boeing can destroy its own head/shoulders pattern, I doubt
if the DJI will advance much past its red resistance-line and its falling 65-dma
at 24600-24750. A reversal back down from there would likely re-ignite the
bears' aggressiveness and start another sell-off. So be patient. At the very
least, hedge your long positions with some of the many bearish MINCPs.
Most it is oil stocks which populate the Bullish MAXCPs.
Tomorrow watch: 1) what happens to BA, 2) if short-term interest rates pull back
any further and 3) at the Food Commodity ETNs. In one way another CORN,
WHEAT, SUGAR and SOYBEANS are each starting to look quite Bullish.
(See their charts in the CHARTS' SECTION below.)
270 is SPY's key resistance. A reversal
down from this level would be bearish. A
breakout would likely lift it only to its upper
band, from which another retreat would seem
to be the most likely next development. Closing
Power here is still falling and the IP21 is
still negative.
Two More Weeks of Mildly Bullish Seasonality
The first two weeks of May have since 1965 been mildly
bullish. The DJI has
rallied 63.5% of the time since April 30 over the following two weeks and
produced an average 0.5% gain over this period. But by May 10th, the odds
shift more towards favoring a decline. The two weeks thereafter brought
an average decline in the DJI of 0.2%. From May 15th until June 14th,
the DJI falls 55.8% of the time.
BOEING is The Most Important DJI Stock To
Watch Now.
I've mentioned that the highest priced DJI stocks (the
DJI-13) have much
the most weight. Of these Boeing is by far the most important. It has
stalled exactly at its 65-dma and is not yet suggesting the DJI will move
substantially higher. I would give a bullish interpretation to GS, IBM, UNH,
HD and CVX. The first two show recent red (automatic) Buys and
the last three are now moving up past theie 65-dma. On the other hand,
7 of the 13 highest priced DJI stocks are quite a distance below their
own 65-dma and are not likely to be of much help in bringing about
a DJI rally at this time. So, much will depend on how BA behaves. Watch
it closely.
Charts 4/27/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/27/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/427/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/427/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/27/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 242.95 -.17 244.35 -31.5% Bearish ---- .042 =====
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7119.8 1.12 7128.6 -18.6% Bearish RED -.012 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.56 .25 266.57 -.9% Bearish RED -.005 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 162.09 .1 161.89 -6.5% Bearish RED -.024 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 344.1 -.55 345.8 -25.1% ---- RED .043 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.69 -.22 155.32 -27.8% Bearish RED .027 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.57 .37 64.66 -21.1% Bearish BLUE -.125 -.048
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 35.38 1.07 32.15 594.4% ---- BLUE .056 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 126.09 -2.85 124.99 -164.9% Bearish RED -.092 -.132
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 115.03 -.82 115.94 -83.1% Bearish RED .017 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 105.61 .31 104.79 31.2% Bearish BLUE -.081 -.012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 125.5 .53 125.62 -44.9% Bullish BLUE .014 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.22 -.16 27.03 70.3% Bullish BLUE .306 .144
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.01 -.68 21.29 90.5% Bullish RED .219 .156
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.82 .07 34.04 68.5% Bullish ---- .265 .137
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.03 -.02 23.87 64.9% Bullish RED .156 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.59 .17 101.47 1% Bearish BLUE -.03 .024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.71 .52 50.33 139.2% Bullish BLUE .066 .089
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.58 .13 6.28 203.3% Bullish BLUE .199 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.68 .12 31.79 130.2% Bullish BLUE .148 -.092
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.29 .05 21.05 68.9% Bullish ---- .16 -.052
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 162.32 -1.9 165.24 -103.4% Bearish RED -.203 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1030.05 -9.99 1067.45 -205.4% Bearish RED -.054 -.012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95.82 1.56 95.35 43.6% Bearish RED .044 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1572.62 54.66 1517.86 150.8% Bearish RED .05 .109
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 173.59 -.57 165.84 221.3% Bearish RED .091 -.008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 226.33 1.11 223.88 -53.3% Bearish RED -.01 -.037
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 340.88 -1.91 338.84 32.6% Bearish RED .184 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 239.8 -.29 246.67 -249.1% Bearish RED -.237 -.061
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 186.46 .74 177.66 264.2% Bullish BLUE .085 .035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 144.72 -1.59 153.99 -286.9% Bearish RED -.144 -.059
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180427
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 104 BULLISH
NEWLOWS 50
MAXCP 31
MINCP 250 Professionals remain bearish.
TTTNH 56
TTTNL 351 Day Traders remain bearish.
FASTUP 80
FASTDOWN 149 Swing traders are bearish.
CPCROSSA 138 But there is a move to bullish side by Professionals.
CPCROSSD 49
BIGVOLUP 1
BIGVODN 7 Dumping continues.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180427
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 31 17 55 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
GREEN 30 2 7 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
SOFTWARE 66 4 6 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
UTILITY 42 2 5 %
OILGAS 137 6 4 %
RUS-1000 825 31 4 %
SP500 481 21 4 %
CHINA 62 2 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
NASD-100 89 3 3 %
BIOTECH 382 9 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
SEMI 127 2 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180427
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL 10 2 20 %
MINCP 250 32 13 %
HACKERS 24 2 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
ELECTRON 176 9 5 %
SEMI 127 6 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
BONDFUND 111 4 4 %
BIOTECH 382 11 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 66 2 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
ETFS 66 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
INDMATER 86 1 1 %
OILGAS 137 1 1 %
RUS-1000 825 12 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 7 1 %
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/27/18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 .857 1 1 .857 1
FOOD .888 .555 .555 .222 .222 .333
UTILITY .738 .714 .714 .69 .69 .666
REIT .71 .562 .414 .42 .352 .346
HACKERS .708 .75 .708 .75 .791 .833
OILGAS .686 .686 .686 .656 .686 .671
RETAIL .679 .622 .452 .415 .433 .415
SOFTWARE .651 .636 .545 .651 .681 .666
TRANSP .65 .45 .55 .3 .65 .6
HOMEBLDG .588 .588 .294 .176 .176 .176
GOLD .58 .56 .5 .6 .46 .7
COMODITY .571 .535 .553 .535 .482 .66
HOSPITAL .571 .428 .714 .714 .714 .714
SOLAR .571 .571 .428 .523 .523 .523
NIFTY .551 .586 .275 .31 .413 .413
REGBANKS .545 .515 .575 .606 .545 .424
DOWJONES .5 .5 .366 .4 .4 .366
GREEN .5 .5 .433 .433 .466 .533
JETS .5 .2 .4 .3 .5 .5
RUS-1000 .493 .478 .429 .413 .45 .438
SP500 .478 .451 .403 .382 .428 .407
SP-100 .468 .427 .343 .333 .416 .385
NASD-100 .46 .426 .348 .337 .393 .359
INSURANC .437 .437 .468 .437 .5 .5
CHEM .435 .5 .483 .435 .532 .532
INDMATER .43 .488 .441 .395 .453 .5
FIDSTKS .423 .423 .38 .391 .455 .433
FINANCE .417 .428 .406 .461 .461 .406
BIOTECH .416 .413 .384 .369 .4 .39
COMPUTER .409 .409 .409 .454 .454 .5
BEVERAGE .4 .4 .25 .35 .35 .4
MILITARY .394 .394 .526 .5 .552 .605
ETFS .348 .287 .196 .227 .287 .287
CHINA .338 .306 .29 .29 .306 .306
INDEXES .328 .348 .317 .317 .364 .389
INFRA .314 .342 .257 .228 .228 .257
DJI-13 .307 .307 .23 .153 .153 .153
BIG17 .304 .304 .282 .282 .347 .347
GAMING .285 .321 .25 .321 .464 .392
GUNS .277 .388 .5 .444 .555 .5
ELECTRON .238 .261 .244 .284 .289 .335
AUTO .225 .225 .225 .225 .175 .15
SEMI .204 .228 .188 .22 .204 .244
COAL .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .3
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
PIPELINE .142 .285 .142 0 .285 .142
BONDFUND .117 .063 .054 .081 .036 .036
|
==============================================================================
4/26/2018 The
Peerless S9 still operates. The P-Indicator's rise
is bullish and
may give us a buy signal on a decline to the lower band. But the
DJI is quite capable of leading the market down when breadth
looked positive. Be patient, let the Peerless signals tell us what
to do. Right now, Peerless is saying wait for a decline to the
lower band, at least. Very few Sell S9s don't take the DJI down
to the 3% band, at a minimum. When they cluster as now, they
are much more dangerous.
We should be very careful of one-day jumps in the DJI that are quickly wiped
out by declines. This is one of the warnings given right before the crashes
of 1929, 1987 and 2008. See the days circled in red.
I'm not saying a Crash is imminent. The internals of the current market
have not been negative for many, many months as is 1929. The A/D Line
was much worse in 1929 and 1987. But the IP21-Accumulation Index
was no worse in 2008. So stick with the S9 until it is reversed. And
definitely,
do not trust a quick one or two day jump in the market on mediocre volume
when the Closing Powers for the major market ETFs are all falling and the
DJI is still below its falling 65-dma.
The P-Indicator keeps rising. That may allow the market to
withstand
the DJI's steady dropping down to the critical 23400 support. But what
it will do there if the DJI breaks down, I cannot say for sure right now.
My fear is that fund managers will do what they did in October 1987 and
buy lots and lots of leveraged negative insurance. That will be very dangerous
and could easily cause a decline that would take the DJI down to 20,000.
At that point, it will be entering "bear market territory" and additional
selling
would likely follow.
But first, if the DJI is going to significantly violate 23200-23400,
other segments
of the market besides the Blue Chips, REITs and Bond Funds will need to
violate their key support levels. So, we should watch them closely again
tonight. They are:
Support Close Today
Semi-Conductors
(SOXL) 117
128.94 +7.42 CP falling IP21=-.105
Hospitals (Tiger Index)
350
343 -18
IP21=-.271
Cable-TVs (MG726)
860 881.14 -10.55
IP21=-.238
Softdrinks (MG349)
1900 1921.20 +20.55 IP21=-.130
Personal Products (MG324) 2950
2993.63 +17.26
IP21=-176
Consumer Durables (MG310) 410
412.65 -1.84
IP21=-.036
Conglomerates See below
1047
1035.55 -35.1
IP21=-.053
Pharmaceuticals (XPH)
39.80 40.76 +.30
IP21=-.064
Emerging Markets (FDC)
14.70 15.39 +.40
IP21=-.100
Home Building (XHB)
38.62 39.67 +.34
IP21= +.001
Conglomerates broke their support decisively today.
|
Charts 4/26/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/26/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/426/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/426/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/26/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 243.12 2.42 244.48 -70.9% Bearish BLUE .006 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7118.68 114.94 7146.13 -84% Bearish BLUE -.011 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.31 2.68 266.61 -48.5% Bearish BLUE -.036 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 161.99 3.34 162.3 -90.5% Bearish BLUE -.032 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 344.65 1.31 345.83 -47.5% ---- BLUE .042 .042
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.91 .71 155.55 -47.7% Bearish BLUE .017 .057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.2 1.07 64.84 -70.8% Bearish BLUE -.125 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 34.31 1.42 31.5 216.3% Bearish BLUE .022 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 128.94 7.42 130.23 -242.2% Bearish BLUE -.104 -.067
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 115.85 5.95 116.92 -283.9% Bearish BLUE .001 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 105.3 2.04 104.96 -28.2% Bearish BLUE -.081 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 124.97 -.44 126.63 -104.1% Bearish RED -.045 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.38 .33 26.84 64.9% Bullish BLUE .271 .156
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.69 .71 20.63 134.1% Bullish BLUE .167 .278
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.75 .37 33.36 94.1% Bullish BLUE .285 .142
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 24.05 .11 23.72 98.8% Bullish BLUE .231 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.42 .29 101.57 -24.1% Bearish ---- -.064 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 51.19 .51 50.3 42.5% Bullish BLUE .039 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.45 -.1 6.32 -23.4% Bullish ---- .15 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.56 .36 31.84 -101.9% Bullish BLUE .144 -.029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.24 .32 21 -26.1% Bullish BLUE .151 -.04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 164.22 .57 165.72 -258.3% Bearish BLUE -.226 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1040.04 18.86 1072.96 -226.1% Bearish BLUE -.022 .003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 94.26 1.95 95 -98% Bearish BLUE .003 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1517.96 57.79 1527.49 -129.4% Bearish BLUE .161 .087
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 174.16 14.47 166.28 184.8% ---- BLUE .1 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 225.22 8.56 228.71 -85.3% Bearish BLUE -.019 -.018
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 342.79 -.07 338.67 31.8% Bearish RED .199 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 240.09 .86 251.96 -285.1% Bearish BLUE -.207 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 185.72 8.33 177.01 244% Bullish BLUE .035 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 146.31 1.12 153.25 -311.9% Bearish BLUE -.139 -.036
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180426
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 120 Bullish
NEWLOWS 51
MAXCP 38
MINCP 233 Professionals remain solidly bearish.
TTTNH 50
TTTNL 321 Day Traders are clearly more bearish than bullish.
FASTUP 71
FASTDOWN 156 Swing traders are 2:1 bearish.
CPCROSSA 181 Professions did jump to positive side today.
CPCROSSD 46
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 21 Big Money Dumping is quite high.
|
Table 3
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180426
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 38 30 79 %
OILGAS 137 18 13 %
RETAIL 53 4 8 %
GAMING 28 2 7 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
SOFTWARE 66 4 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
FIDSTKS 189 7 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
RUS-1000 825 31 4 %
SP500 481 20 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
FINANCE 91 3 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
NIFTY 29 1 3 %
SP-100 96 3 3 %
BIOTECH 383 6 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
INDMATER 86 2 2 %
NASD-100 89 2 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 2 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
|
Table 5
Count of Stocks and New Lows in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180426
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
COAL 10 2 20 %
MINCP 233 34 15 %
BONDFUND 111 15 14 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 %
INFRA 35 2 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
SOFTWARE 66 4 6 %
AUTO 39 2 5 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
BIOTECH 383 16 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
ELECTRON 176 6 3 %
OILGAS 137 4 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
ETFS 66 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 86 2 2 %
RUS-1000 825 14 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SP-100 96 2 2 %
SP500 481 9 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
|
Table 6 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/26/18
Bearish = 30
Bullish = 14
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 1 1 .857 1 1
HACKERS .75 .708 .75 .791 .833 .875
UTILITY .714 .714 .69 .69 .666 .714
OILGAS .686 .686 .656 .686 .671 .686
SOFTWARE .636 .545 .651 .681 .666 .727
RETAIL .622 .452 .415 .433 .415 .471
HOMEBLDG .588 .294 .176 .176 .176 .235
NIFTY .586 .275 .31 .413 .413 .448
SOLAR .571 .428 .523 .523 .523 .571
REIT .562 .414 .42 .352 .34 .42
GOLD .56 .5 .6 .46 .7 .66
FOOD .555 .555 .222 .222 .333 .888
COMODITY .535 .553 .535 .482 .66 .732
REGBANKS .515 .575 .606 .545 .424 .363
N=14
==========================================================================================
CHEM .5 .483 .435 .532 .5 .564
DOWJONES .5 .366 .4 .4 .366 .433
GREEN .5 .433 .433 .466 .533 .6
==========================================================================================
INDMATER .488 .441 .395 .453 .476 .546
RUS-1000 .478 .429 .413 .45 .435 .477
SP500 .451 .403 .382 .428 .407 .461
TRANSP .45 .55 .3 .65 .6 .65
INSURANC .437 .468 .437 .5 .531 .5
COMPUTER .434 .434 .478 .478 .434 .608
FINANCE .428 .406 .461 .461 .406 .406
HOSPITAL .428 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714
SP-100 .427 .343 .333 .416 .385 .447
NASD-100 .426 .348 .337 .393 .359 .438
FIDSTKS .423 .38 .391 .455 .439 .486
BIOTECH .412 .383 .368 .399 .391 .43
BEVERAGE .4 .25 .35 .35 .4 .45
MILITARY .394 .526 .5 .552 .605 .631
GUNS .388 .5 .444 .555 .5 .555
INDEXES .348 .317 .317 .364 .394 .507
INFRA .342 .257 .228 .228 .257 .342
GAMING .321 .25 .321 .464 .392 .464
DJI-13 .307 .23 .153 .153 .153 .384
CHINA .306 .29 .29 .306 .306 .274
BIG17 .304 .282 .282 .347 .369 .369
ETFS .287 .196 .227 .287 .287 .363
PIPELINE .285 .142 0 .285 .142 0
ELECTRON .261 .244 .284 .289 .323 .369
SEMI .234 .195 .226 .21 .242 .281
AUTO .205 .205 .205 .153 .128 .179
COAL .2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3
JETS .2 .4 .3 .5 .5 .5
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142
BONDFUND .063 .054 .081 .036 .036 .054
N=30
|
|
|
|
==============================================================================
4/25/2018 The
Peerless S9 still operates. Much now depends on
whether the DJI can
survive its next test of 23200-23400. A test of that seems very likely. The
warning signs I've mentioned in the last four or five Hotlines are all still present.
Suffice it to say here, without a new Peerless Buy signal and the Closing Powers
all still quite bearish, we should remain bearish even though the market deserves
a little short-term recovery.
What I am struck by tonight, and their charts are shown below, is just how many
sectors' charts have fallen to their own important flat support-levels. If the ETFs
and Index charts of Semi-Conductors, Hospitals, Cable-TVs, Softdrinks, Personal
Products, Consumer Durables, Conglomerates, Pharmaceuticals, Emerging Markets
and Home Building next show key breakdowns, the market will then be that much
more dangerous. We will watch these closely.
Flat Support (green) usually beckons for a test and very
often brings a breakdown. The P-Indicator is still positive.
Can the DJI still lead the general market significantly lower?
Yes, that had
happened in the past. Higher interest rates and
rising oil prices did that in 1977. So, the same combination
could produce a DJI-led bear market here.
What To Do Now? Hold Your Shorts and
Be Patient.
One question that may occur to readers is it too late now to go short? I would
say not if you are willing to cover if the Closing Power downtrend is broken. This
would apply to DIA or to some of the many Beairsh MINCPs. Should you buy
puts in expectation of a DJI breakdown? Perhaps, the October 1987 case shows
this could be immensely profitable. But breadth was worse then. So, there is
a better chance now in 2018 that the DJI's key support will not crack wide open
or even that there may be a false new low with a reversing Buy signal as there was
on 7/2/2010 when the P-I widely failed to confirm the new and the DJI quickly
turned right back up. But there is a big difference between now and then. That
bull market was only 15 months old. Ours is now more than 8 years old, which would
seem to make it ripe for a 20% decline, at the least. That would take it back to
20,000.
Groups Threatening To Break Their Flat
Support.
Another question worth considering... Are there new sectors that are breaking
below their own key support? A bear market would seem to need new fuel,
otherwise it will mainly be blue chips, bonds and REITs that are mostly falling.
I think that we would do well to watch the sectors represented below. They
are still above their own key flat support-levels. But not by much. If they break
down, it will make any DJI decline below 23200-23400 far less isolated and
much more dangerous.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/25/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 240.7 .61 246.57 -136.6% Bearish BLUE -.043 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7003.74 -3.61 7238.06 -203.5% Bearish RED -.095 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 263.63 .65 268.89 -126.6% Bearish BLUE -.079 .016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 158.65 .19 164.91 -239.3% Bearish RED -.099 .021
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 343.34 .13 347.93 -92.5% Bearish BLUE -.038 .049
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.2 -.23 156.39 -105.2% Bearish RED -.042 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 63.13 -.31 65.11 -53.6% Bearish RED -.154 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 32.89 .55 32.91 -191.7% Bearish BLUE -.034 -.009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 121.52 -.43 135.08 -1258.3% Bearish RED -.191 -.113
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 109.9 .01 122.38 -710.1% Bearish RED -.073 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103.26 -.01 105.89 -194.3% Bearish ---- -.155 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 125.41 -.82 127.6 -96.2% Bullish BLUE -.004 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .084
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.05 .23 27.03 -5.6% Bullish BLUE .227 .135
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.98 .59 21.13 -126.3% Bullish BLUE .117 .195
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.38 -.02 33.12 37.4% Bullish RED .237 .144
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 23.94 .1 23.58 90.7% Bullish ---- .204 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.13 -.22 101.91 -52.1% Bearish RED -.028 .012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.68 .01 50.76 -10.9% Bullish BLUE .022 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.55 .17 6.48 70.5% Bullish BLUE .135 .035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.2 -.69 33.22 -118.3% ---- ---- .089 -.032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.92 -.05 21.35 -139.3% Bullish ---- .104 -.035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 163.65 .71 172.8 -420.1% Bearish BLUE -.249 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1021.18 1.2 1087.7 -239.2% Bearish RED -.094 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 92.31 -.81 96.11 -216.9% Bearish RED -.062 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1460.17 .08 1556.91 -222.9% Bearish BLUE .092 .076
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 159.69 0 168.1 -201.8% Bearish RED .003 -.073
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 216.66 -4.54 229.04 -432.5% Bearish RED -.108 -.028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 342.86 13.8 340.64 27.5% Bearish BLUE .151 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 239.23 -3.26 254.17 -295.6% Bearish RED -.24 -.033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 177.39 1.13 177.08 -69.3% Bearish BLUE -.079 -.014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 145.19 .75 155.7 -352.4% Bearish BLUE -.184 -.024
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180425
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 79
NEWLOWS 140
MAXCP 30
MINCP 326
TTTNH 56
TTTNL 471
FASTUP 50
FASTDOWN 223
CPCROSSA 92
CPCROSSD 70
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 8 |
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180425
No. NHs Pct.
MAXCP 30 20 67 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
OILGAS 137 9 7 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
BIOTECH 383 6 2 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
COMODITY 56 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 826 17 2 %
SOFTWARE 66 1 2 %
SP500 481 9 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
FIDSTKS 189 2 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New LOWS in Key Tiger Directories
Bond funds are the leaders on downside.
REITs are well-represented there, too.
Date = 180425
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND 111 59 53 %
MINCP 326 69 21 %
COAL 10 2 20 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
AUTO 40 4 10 %
SEMI 128 12 9 %
REIT 176 12 7 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
CHINA 62 4 6 %
ELECTRON 176 10 6 %
INSURANC 32 2 6 %
BIOTECH 383 19 5 %
SOFTWARE 66 3 5 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
OILGAS 137 4 3 %
REGBANKS 33 1 3 %
ETFS 66 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 86 2 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 826 15 2 %
SP500 481 11 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/25/18
Bearish = 34
Bullish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 .857 1 1 1
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857
UTILITY .714 .69 .69 .666 .714 .785
HACKERS .708 .75 .791 .833 .875 .875
OILGAS .686 .656 .686 .671 .671 .7
REGBANKS .575 .606 .545 .424 .333 .242
FOOD .555 .222 .222 .333 .888 .888
COMODITY .553 .535 .482 .66 .732 .75
TRANSP .55 .3 .65 .6 .65 .7
SOFTWARE .545 .651 .681 .666 .727 .742
MILITARY .526 .5 .552 .605 .631 .631
N=11
=============================================================================================
GOLD .5 .6 .46 .7 .66 .66
GUNS .5 .444 .555 .5 .555 .555
==============================================================================================
CHEM .483 .435 .532 .5 .548 .629
INSURANC .468 .437 .5 .531 .5 .5
RETAIL .452 .415 .433 .415 .471 .49
INDMATER .441 .395 .453 .476 .534 .593
COMPUTER .434 .478 .478 .434 .565 .608
GREEN .433 .433 .466 .533 .6 .7
RUS-1000 .429 .414 .451 .435 .469 .521
SOLAR .428 .523 .523 .523 .571 .666
REIT .414 .42 .352 .34 .414 .534
FINANCE .406 .461 .461 .406 .406 .285
SP500 .403 .382 .428 .407 .449 .498
JETS .4 .3 .5 .5 .5 .5
BIOTECH .383 .368 .399 .391 .433 .464
FIDSTKS .38 .391 .455 .439 .476 .497
DOWJONES .366 .4 .4 .366 .433 .4
NASD-100 .348 .337 .393 .359 .415 .505
SP-100 .343 .333 .416 .385 .427 .437
INDEXES .323 .317 .364 .394 .502 .579
HOMEBLDG .294 .176 .176 .176 .235 .352
CHINA .29 .29 .306 .306 .274 .306
BIG17 .282 .282 .347 .369 .369 .369
NIFTY .275 .31 .413 .413 .448 .586
INFRA .257 .228 .228 .257 .342 .428
BEVERAGE .25 .35 .35 .4 .45 .5
GAMING .25 .321 .464 .392 .464 .535
ELECTRON .244 .284 .289 .323 .363 .477
DJI-13 .23 .153 .153 .153 .384 .384
AUTO .225 .225 .175 .15 .175 .3
COAL .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3
ETFS .196 .227 .287 .287 .363 .469
SEMI .195 .226 .21 .242 .273 .429
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 .142 0 0
PIPELINE .142 0 .285 .142 0 .142
BONDFUND .054 .081 .036 .036 .054 .081
N=35
|
|
==============================================================================
4/24/2018 The
dangers of the Peerless S9 should be apparent to us who use TigerSoft
and Peerless. This is the third S9 in just 3 months. It is reinforced by heavy
red
Disribution, an extremely weak Closing Powers and the failure of the DJI to get past
its falling 65-dma. These are all key components to a classic bearish ideal-type.
The only thing missing is a bearish NYSE A/D Line divergence. As far as the
missing head/shoulders pattern, which also often appears at a market top, I would
suggest the falling flat-bottomed triangle pattern in the DJI is the technical equivalent
of a bearish head/shoulders top.
It is not important that we know exactly why the market is selling off. That will
become apparent "in the fulness of time". What
is important is that we see Professionals
selling quickly into any and every rally now.
They want out. My guess is the stampede
has only started. At least, we cannot assume otherwise now. What we can see is
that
short-term interest rates are rising now every day. The Fed probably cannot stop
this decline
except by huge injections of money into the system, something which is politically very
hard
for them to do now. But without guarantees that the market will be stabilized by the
FED,
how will it hold up? And what if there is much worse news for the market? What
if
the Special Prosecutor is going to accuse the President of "obstruction of
justice"?
All we can know for sure is that there are huge sums of money in all sorts of Funds
run by worried money managers. In October 1987, the same guys rushed to buy OEX puts
when the key supports were broken. I fully expect the same thing to happen if
23200-23400
is broken. Our theories hold that flat tops and flat bottoms "beckon" for
breakouts and
breakdowns. So, hold DIA short (or its leveraged equivalents) and lots of bearish
MINCPs
short. Hold long only OIL stocks, and only so long as they hold above their own
65-dma.
The other important element here to appreciate is
that market history shows us that
important tops can indeed take place without a NYSE A/D Line divergence at the
top. Below are the main examples of important
tops where the NYSE A/D Line
confirmed or very nearly confirmed the DJI's top.
1) 5/28/1946 ---> 24% DJI decline followed. Sell S5/S4 +
Head/Shoulders.
2) 6/14/1948 DJI 192.9 ---> 6/13/1949 161.6 S2 + H/S
3) 11/5/1961 ---> 27% DJI decline followed. S16 + H/S
4) 1/18/1966 ---> bear market.
S4/S12 (la/ma=1.02 IP21=-.028)
5) 12/31/1976 ---> bear market led by DJI
S4/S12
6) 1/9/1984 ----> 15% mini-bear
S12 (la/ma=1.021 IP21= .007)
Within the DJI now, we see the most weakness in the higher priced (and most heavily
weighted DJI stocks). The first chart below is the DJI-13, representing the 13 highest
priced DJI-30 stocks. They led the DJI up in 2017. Now they are leading it
down
in 2018. Its bearish head/shoulders pattern has just been completed. This reinforces
my expectation that the DJI will soon be testing its key support at 23400 and will
most likely break down much further. See the second chart below.
The highest priced DJI-13 have much more weight in the
DJI's moves than the lower priced stocks in that Index.
One clue about the weakness in these 13 DJI stocks
is how low many of their current Accum. Index (IP21) values are.
The most important exception is Boeing, the highest priced
of these stocks. Its IP21 is still positive. But today, it turned
down from its 65-dma and fell 9.78.
Additional weakness by semi-conductors would cause this
market-leading group to break its neckline support. That
would be quite bearish for much of the tech sector and suggest
a much deeper retreat by the market as a whole. Watch this
group closely.
Charts 4/24/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/24/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/424/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/424/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/24/18
Note that DIA's 50-day pct. price change is lower than COMPQX, SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM
as well as TECL.
All of key ETFS (except IWM +.01 IP21) show falling Closing Power and negative IP21.
SOXL shows the most bearish accross-the-board internals.
OIL shows bullish across-the-board internals.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 240.09 -4.26 247.38 -156.6% Bearish RED -.022 ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7007.35 -121.25 7295.24 -189.6% Bearish RED -.04 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 262.98 -3.59 270.39 -134.2% Bearish RED -.053 .014
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 158.46 -3.43 166.44 -232.5% Bearish RED -.075 .023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 343.21 -2.59 349.75 -77.1% Bearish RED -.001 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 154.43 -.89 157.48 -84.1% Bearish RED .001 .06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 63.44 -1.22 63.82 -65.1% Bearish RED -.115 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 32.34 .19 34.14 -286.5% Bearish RED -.012 -.041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 121.95 -3.04 155.11 -1350.9% Bearish RED -.161 -.078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 109.89 -6.05 126.71 -727.9% Bearish RED -.021 .035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 103.27 -1.52 107.35 -189.1% Bearish RED -.106 -.015
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 126.23 .61 127.85 -59.8% Bullish BLUE -.029 .02
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.82 -.21 27.08 83.7% Bullish RED .225 .133
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.39 -.9 21.51 126.9% Bullish RED .131 .24
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.4 -.64 33.13 121.8% Bullish RED .209 .112
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 23.84 -.03 23.51 80.4% Bullish ---- .172 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.35 -.12 102.19 -60.8% Bearish ---- -.069 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.67 .34 50.79 -30.6% Bullish BLUE .039 .051
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.38 .1 6.46 23.5% Bullish BLUE .125 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 32.89 1.1 32.97 -38.4% ---- RED .122 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 20.97 -.08 21.51 63.9% Bullish RED .099 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 162.94 -2.3 177.84 -444.9% Bearish RED -.191 .05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1019.98 -47.47 1072.08 -252% Bearish RED -.027 -.009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 93.12 -2.23 96.44 -154% Bearish RED -.006 .064
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1460.09 -57.77 1527.84 -143.2% Bearish RED .102 .098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 159.69 -6.15 166.36 -268.5% Bearish RED .101 -.085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 221.2 -2.68 236.37 -353.5% Bearish RED -.068 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 329.06 -9.78 341 -112.9% Bearish RED .096 -.003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 242.49 -4.18 254 -221% Bearish RED -.181 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 176.26 -1.4 179.85 38.1% Bearish RED -.057 -.035
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 144.44 -9.55 155.95 -287.2% Bearish RED -.161 -.024
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180424
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 72
NEWLOWS 117
MAXCP 32
MINCP 557 Professionals are very bearish.
TTTNH 46
TTTNL 579 Day Traders are very bearish.
FASTUP 57
FASTDOWN 191 Swing traders are now mostly bearish.
CPCROSSA 62
CPCROSSD 214 Professionals increasingly bearish.
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 14 Lots of trap-door stocks being heavily dumped.
|
Table 3
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180423
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 32 14 44 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
COMODITY 56 2 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
OILGAS 137 4 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FINANCE 91 2 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
SOFTWARE 66 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
BIOTECH 382 2 1 %
INDMATER 86 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
REIT 176 1 1 %
RUS-1000 826 8 1 %
SP500 481 1 0 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New LOWS in Key Tiger Directories
Bond funds are the leaders on downside.
REITs are well-represented there, too.
Date = 180424
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND 111 35 32 %
COAL 10 3 30 %
BEVERAGE 20 3 15 %
MINCP 557 70 13 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
SEMI 128 11 9 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
ELECTRON 176 13 7 %
INDMATER 86 5 6 %
INFRA 35 2 6 %
BIOTECH 382 21 5 %
CHINA 62 3 5 %
SOLAR 21 1 5 %
FIDSTKS 189 7 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
OILGAS 137 5 4 %
SP-100 96 4 4 %
SP500 481 19 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
REIT 176 5 3 %
RUS-1000 826 23 3 %
SOFTWARE 66 2 3 %
ETFS 66 1 2 %
UTILITY 42 1 2 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
|
Table 5 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/24/18
Bearish = 35
Bullish = 11
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 .857 1 1 .857 1
HACKERS .75 .791 .833 .875 .875 .875
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .714
UTILITY .69 .69 .666 .714 .785 .761
OILGAS .656 .686 .671 .671 .7 .613
SOFTWARE .651 .681 .666 .727 .742 .727
REGBANKS .606 .545 .424 .333 .242 .242
GOLD .6 .46 .7 .66 .66 .6
COMODITY .535 .482 .66 .732 .75 .642
SOLAR .523 .523 .523 .571 .619 .619
N=10
============================================================================================
MILITARY .5 .552 .605 .631 .631 .605
============================================================================================
COMPUTER .478 .478 .434 .565 .608 .608
FINANCE .461 .461 .406 .406 .285 .329
GUNS .444 .555 .5 .555 .555 .5
INSURANC .437 .5 .531 .5 .5 .5
CHEM .435 .532 .5 .548 .629 .564
GREEN .433 .466 .533 .6 .7 .666
REIT .42 .352 .34 .414 .517 .551
RETAIL .415 .433 .415 .471 .49 .509
RUS-1000 .414 .451 .435 .469 .514 .493
DOWJONES .4 .4 .366 .433 .4 .433
INDMATER .395 .453 .476 .534 .593 .488
FIDSTKS .391 .455 .439 .476 .502 .481
SP500 .382 .428 .407 .449 .49 .474
BIOTECH .366 .4 .392 .434 .468 .476
BEVERAGE .35 .35 .4 .45 .5 .55
NASD-100 .337 .393 .359 .415 .494 .505
SP-100 .333 .416 .385 .427 .437 .395
GAMING .321 .464 .392 .464 .535 .357
INDEXES .317 .364 .394 .502 .579 .533
NIFTY .31 .413 .413 .448 .551 .62
JETS .3 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3
TRANSP .3 .65 .6 .65 .7 .6
CHINA .29 .306 .306 .274 .306 .274
ELECTRON .284 .289 .323 .363 .465 .482
BIG17 .282 .347 .369 .369 .369 .369
INFRA .228 .228 .257 .342 .4 .342
ETFS .227 .287 .287 .363 .454 .378
SEMI .226 .21 .242 .273 .406 .453
AUTO .225 .175 .15 .175 .3 .275
FOOD .222 .222 .333 .888 .888 .666
COAL .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3
HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .235 .352 .294
DJI-13 .153 .153 .153 .384 .384 .307
BIGBANKS .142 .142 .142 0 0 0
BONDFUND .081 .036 .036 .054 .081 .09
PIPELINE 0 .285 .142 0 .142 .142
|
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
4/23/2018 I have stressed the dangers in the now active Peerless S9. It
appears we will see
a 100-point jump at the opening, spurred on hopes that there will be no trade war
with China and no shooting war with North Korea. Perhaps, these hopes will take the
DJI above the 25000 resistance and its 65-dma. But, we can't count on that yet.
There have been too many failed and snuffed out rallies these last two months.
Professionals, as shown by Closing Power, want out of this market. Either the
higher openings are a result of over-seas buying (which usually ends up being
wrong) or they are the result of manipulation (which is intended to mislead and
only temporarily holdup the market up now). This late in a bull market, there is
no other good interpretation.
My advise is not to try to play only the long side, except OILs now. There is
much more money to be made now in carefully chosen shorts.
Safe Stocks Are Not So Safe Anymore.
While More and more risky stocks are getting
really dangerous!
I mentioned Philip Morris yesterday. Look at what happened to Proctor & Gamble
today.
Why if the market is safe and in strong hands are we
see so many air-pockets
in stocks that are normally considered safe investments? See the Bearish MINCPs
today. http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/423/BEARISH.htm
Do a ranking of stocks in the DJI or the SP-500 for IP21 (current
Accumulation). It can not be good that we see so many low IP21s here:
PG -.19, IBM -.17, GS - .20, AAPL -.23, MCD -.23, HOG -.40, KT -.31.
Many semiconductors now show intense insider selling (IP21<-.25):
MCHP -.36, AMAT - .32, QCOM -.31 and WDC -.27. As semi-conductors
often lead the market, we have to be troubled by this.
I suggest staying short some of these low IP21 stocks and some of the Bearish
MINCP. Hold long mostly OIL ETFs and oil stocks with high IP21s.
Note the high IP21 levels for RIG +.36, VLO +.35, PSX +.31, DO +.27 and COP +.24.
Short-term interest rates rose again today. They have not reached levels yet that
will turn down the market. They are still a percent and a half below that level.
But the speed of their rise now is casting a bearish shadow over a lot more than
just Bond
Funds and Reits. There are more than 30 sectors now that show a majority of their
stocks below the 65-dma.
As I've said, the DJI's advance now is very heavily dependent upon higher openings.
This is very reminiscent of 1999-2000 before a major top. But perhaps, we
should be looking back at 2008, when Oil stocks were rising and Bank Stocks
were crumbling. The big banks have not broken support here yet, but Goldman
Sachs chart does not look good. The heavy red Distribution and falling Closing
Power are clearly bearish. One has to wonder if the cognoscenti there are
worried, too, about the general market's health.
Charts 4/23/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/23/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/423/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/423/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/23/18
Note that DIA's 50-day pct. price change is lower than COMPQX, SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM
as well as TECL.
All of key ETFS show falling Closing Power and negative IP21.
SOXL shows the most bearish accross-the-board internals.
OIL shows bullish across-the-board internals.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 244.35 -.13 247.8 -25.8% Bearish RED -.051 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7128.6 -17.53 7281.1 -19.2% Bearish RED -.066 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.57 -.04 270.19 -14.1% Bearish RED -.102 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 161.89 -.41 166.1 -21.6% Bearish RED -.106 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 345.8 -.03 348.57 -1.4% Bearish RED -.036 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 155.32 -.23 157.06 -1.6% Bearish RED -.057 .044
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.66 -.18 64.28 86.3% Bearish RED -.171 .045
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 32.15 .65 34.23 -198.5% Bearish BLUE -.043 -.059
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 124.99 -5.24 160.07 -906.4% Bearish RED -.18 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 115.94 -.98 127.64 -201.4% Bearish RED -.057 .118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 104.79 -.17 107.28 -21.2% Bearish RED -.145 -.024
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 125.62 -1.01 127.75 -78.8% Bearish ---- -.077 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 27.03 .19 26.37 140.3% Bullish BLUE .191 .093
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 21.29 .66 19.86 408.8% Bullish BLUE .097 .24
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 34.04 .68 32.59 212.3% Bullish BLUE .27 .075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 23.87 .15 23.46 87.1% Bullish BLUE .165 -.012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.47 -.1 102.59 -51.9% ---- ---- -.037 -.033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.33 .03 50.98 -13.8% Bearish ---- -.016 .034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.28 -.04 6.35 -54.8% Bullish ---- .135 -.038
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.79 -.05 33.14 -196.3% Bullish BLUE .098 -.053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21.05 .05 20.7 73.6% Bullish RED .091 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 165.24 -.48 178.24 -303.9% Bearish RED -.232 .041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1067.45 -5.51 1074.16 137.8% ---- RED -.012 .042
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95.35 .35 96.07 61.7% Bearish RED -.033 .098
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1517.86 -9.63 1503.83 252.6% Bearish RED .084 .1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 165.84 -.44 168.66 30.3% ---- RED .07 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 223.88 -4.83 237.54 -163.6% Bearish RED -.101 .005
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 338.84 .17 336.72 104.7% Bearish RED .091 .004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 246.67 -5.29 253.63 -220.4% Bearish RED -.199 -.022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 177.66 .65 174.91 91.4% Bearish ---- -.088 -.043
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.99 .74 153.31 60% Bearish RED -.022 .031
|
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180423
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 112
NEWLOWS 121
MAXCP 41
MINCP 291 Professionals remain bearish.
TTTNH 51
TTTNL 271 Day Traders reamin mostly bearish.
FASTUP 69
FASTDOWN 106 Swing traders are more cautious now.
CPCROSSA 30
CPCROSSD 156 Professionals became more bearish.
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 8
|
Table 3
Oil is the one group showing leadership now.
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180423
No. NHs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 41 28 68 %
COMODITY 56 8 14 %
COAL 10 1 10 %
OILGAS 136 11 8 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
BEVERAGE 20 1 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOFTWARE 66 3 5 %
FINANCE 91 4 4 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
INDEXES 195 7 4 %
CHEM 62 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INDMATER 86 3 3 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 826 20 2 %
SEMI 128 2 2 %
SP-100 96 2 2 %
SP500 481 8 2 %
BIOTECH 383 5 1 %
|
Table 4
Count of Stocks and New LOWS in Key Tiger Directories
Bond funds are the leaders on downside.
REITs are well-represented there, too.
Date = 180423
No. NLs Pct.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND 111 50 45 %
COAL 10 3 30 %
MINCP 291 56 19 %
HOSPITAL 7 1 14 %
FOOD 9 1 11 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
REIT 177 16 9 %
SEMI 128 8 6 %
SP-100 96 6 6 %
AUTO 40 2 5 %
BIOTECH 383 19 5 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
ELECTRON 176 9 5 %
INDMATER 86 4 5 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
ETFS 66 2 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
INFRA 35 1 3 %
INSURANC 32 1 3 %
SOFTWARE 66 2 3 %
CHEM 62 1 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 4 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
OILGAS 136 3 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 826 20 2 %
SP500 481 12 2 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
PIPELINE 7 0 %
REGBANKS 33 0 %
SOLAR 21 0 %
TRANSP 20 0 %
UTILITY 42 0 %
MAXCP 41 0 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/23/18
Bearish = 34
Bullish = 12
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU .857 1 1 .857 1 1
HACKERS .791 .833 .875 .875 .875 .791
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 .714
OILGAS .691 .676 .676 .705 .61 .566
UTILITY .69 .666 .714 .785 .761 .714
SOFTWARE .681 .666 .727 .742 .727 .666
TRANSP .65 .6 .65 .7 .6 .5
GUNS .555 .5 .555 .555 .444 .444
MILITARY .552 .605 .631 .631 .605 .605
REGBANKS .545 .424 .333 .242 .242 .242
CHEM .532 .5 .548 .629 .564 .419
SOLAR .523 .523 .571 .619 .571 .523
N=12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INSURANC .5 .531 .5 .5 .5 .468
JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMODITY .482 .66 .732 .75 .642 .571
COMPUTER .478 .434 .565 .608 .608 .565
GREEN .466 .533 .6 .7 .633 .533
GAMING .464 .392 .464 .535 .392 .25
FINANCE .461 .406 .406 .285 .329 .318
GOLD .46 .7 .66 .66 .6 .56
FIDSTKS .455 .439 .476 .502 .481 .391
INDMATER .453 .476 .534 .593 .488 .383
RUS-1000 .451 .435 .469 .514 .489 .429
RETAIL .433 .415 .471 .49 .49 .452
SP500 .428 .407 .449 .49 .465 .411
SP-100 .416 .385 .427 .437 .375 .364
NIFTY .413 .413 .448 .551 .62 .482
DOWJONES .4 .366 .433 .4 .4 .433
BIOTECH .399 .391 .433 .467 .475 .402
NASD-100 .393 .359 .415 .494 .494 .426
INDEXES .364 .394 .502 .579 .523 .42
REIT .355 .344 .418 .519 .548 .435
BEVERAGE .35 .4 .45 .5 .55 .55
BIG17 .347 .369 .369 .369 .391 .282
CHINA .306 .306 .274 .306 .258 .258
COAL .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3
ELECTRON .289 .323 .363 .465 .477 .409
ETFS .287 .287 .363 .454 .348 .333
PIPELINE .285 .142 0 .142 0 0
INFRA .228 .257 .342 .4 .342 .114
FOOD .222 .333 .888 .888 .666 .333
SEMI .21 .242 .273 .406 .453 .382
HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .235 .352 .294 .294
AUTO .175 .15 .175 .3 .25 .25
DJI-13 .153 .153 .384 .384 .307 .307
BIGBANKS .142 .142 0 0 0 0
BONDFUND .036 .036 .054 .081 .081 .081
|
==============================================================================
4/20/2018 The now active Peerless S9 should bring the
DJI down to its lower 3.5% band.
23400 may again act as support. But I would not count on it stopping there. The
Trump
economic stimulus is now pretty well discounted. A second big year for the DJI would
be asking a lot unless there is even a bigger Public Works stimulus passed by Congress.
I don't see that happening. The deficit is very big and many of the Democrats, now
that
the shoe is on the other foot, are now the budget-hawks, as well as being cold-warriors.
So, more than a token Public Works program seems improbable. But that is not the
problem now.
The DJI's technical weakness is of most concern. I am struck by the inherent
bearishness
of the DJI's falling flat-bottomed triangle. It's true that such a pattern did not
bring a collapse in
2011, but that was when Bernanke was still injecting massive funds into longer-term
mortgage
bonds to spur economic growth.
https://www.thebalance.com/federal-reserve-s-operation-twist-3305529
It's unlikely the current Fed will do anything like this. Their rates are tracking
higher.
The risk:reward ratio
favors shorting more now. The average S9
brings nearly
a 10% decline in the DJI. When we look at the handful of S9-S12 failures and losses
in bull markets since 1928, we see the biggest paper loss is about 4.9%. Certainly,
the S9 might fail here, too. But we will most likely get a Peerless Buy B4 before
much
damage is down. Below are the few cases where S9-S12s in a bull market would have
lost money for a short seller. For every one of these, there are five or six
successes
and some of them brought us huge short sale profits and very quickly. We remember
October 1987 well. But many of the younger traders and talking heads on TV were
not even in high school back in October 1987. That type of decline could certainly
happen again.
So, we are short DIA. You
can use leverage if you like. DIA is the
weakest of the
major ETFs. The negative IP21s, the falling Closing Powers and the failure to
get past
their falling 65-day moving averages makes DIA and SPY particularly vulnerable now,
especially with a dangerously flat and obvious support that beckons for a breakdown..
Stocks in this position, or slightly weaker and unable last week even to reach their
65-dma, are in considerable risk. See some examples of what has already
happened to some stocks like Black and Decker, Phllip Morris and Man Power,
shown further below, that recently stalled at their 65-dma and turned down.
But it is not just these stocks. The market looks technically quite dangerous. The
damage that could be done by leveraged negative ETFs may surprise pollyannas
just like it did in October 1987. I think
we would do well to get out of most
long positons, excepting oil-related MAXCPs.
The thinner issues could be particularly
risky.
Sell S9-S12 Losses: 1928-2018
Losses Selling Short on S9s/S12s in a Bull Market
The losses ranged from 0.1% to 4.9%
A loss of more than 4.9% would put our Sell S9 out of
the range of all past cases and warrant a covering of
our shorts.
Gain
19290614 S9 313.7 -.047
19290617 S12 319.3 -.029
19290626 B4 328.6 .075
----------------------------------------------------
19340925 S12 92.7 -.029
19340927 S9 93.4 -.025
19341005 S12 92.9 -.026
19341008 S9 92.5 -.03
19341016 B4 95.3 .091
-----------------------------------------
19420511 S9 99.2 -.018
19420521 S9 99.7 -.013
19420528 B4 101.0 .410
-----------------------------------------
19591209 S12 671.2 -.007
19591221 B13 675.9 .005
-----------------------------------------
19670419 S12 873.94 -.001
19670427 S3 894.82 .023
19670519 B9 874.55 .063
-----------------------------------------
19870608 S12 2351.64 -.04
19870609 S9 2352.7 -.039
19870610 S8 2353.61 -.039
19870618 S8 2408.13 -.016
19870622 B4 2445.51 .105
-----------------------------------------
19960809 S9 5681.31 -.016
19960912 B10 5771.94 .188
-----------------------------------------
19970422 S9 6833.59 -.049
19970509 B4 7169.53 .105
-----------------------------------------
20161109 S9 18589.69 -.029
20161110 S12 18807.88 -.017
20161129 B4 19121.60 .078
|
The DJI looks technically quite
vulnerable. The P-Indicator is positive
but otherwise, the DJI's chart has some ugly similarities to the way
it looked in October 1987. A breaking of the key support would
set up a very dangerous situation.
Third
S9s are dangerous for:
(1) stocks showing their own IP21
NNCs on new highs.
(2) stocks that have them selves
just stalled at their own falling 65-dma.
and (3) even stocks that look
pretty good technically and are just ripe
for some big profit-taking.
|
Charts 4/20/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals,
Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All
Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM
TNA
USO-CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC
CORN,
CUT (paper) WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL
SPPI WATT
SQ TOWN
4/20/2018 (Click on Underlined link.)
Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MAXCPS/420/BULLISH.htm
Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/4XXH/MINCPS/420/BEARISH.htm
|
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 04/20/18
Note that DIA's 50-day pct. price change is lower than COMPQX, SPY, QQQ, MDY and IWM
as well as TECL.
All of key ETFS show falling Closing Power and very negative IP21 but the 5-day ma
of DIA, COMPQX, SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM and FAS are all still rising.
RETL and SOXL show the most bearish accross-the-board internals.
OIL shows bullish across-the-board internals.
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 244.48 -2.09 245.62 18.3% Bearish RED -.109 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMPQX 7146.13 -91.93 7156.28 27.4% Bearish RED -.103 .031
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 266.61 -2.28 267.33 27.2% Bearish RED -.153 .013
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 162.3 -2.61 162.6 28.3% Bearish RED -.143 .03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 345.83 -2.1 345.9 48.3% Bearish RED -.082 .039
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 155.55 -.84 155.37 51.3% Bearish RED -.11 .055
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 64.84 -.27 63.55 172.2% Bearish RED -.228 -.028
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 31.5 -1.41 33.47 -186.6% Bearish RED -.065 -.123
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 130.23 -4.85 151.53 -675.5% Bearish RED -.187 -.053
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 116.92 -5.46 120.89 -48.3% Bearish RED -.106 .042
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 104.96 -.93 105.24 -47% Bearish RED -.185 -.023
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 126.63 -.97 127.63 -32.1% Bearish RED -.094 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIL 7.61 .04 6.89 339.4% Bullish BLUE .263 .079
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 26.84 -.19 26.28 103.3% Bullish ---- .113 .074
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 20.63 -.5 19.61 365.4% Bullish RED .056 .091
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UGA 33.36 .24 32.64 65.4% Bullish BLUE .188 .082
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UUP 23.72 .14 23.46 38.3% Bullish ---- .087 .022
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IEF 101.57 -.34 102.53 -49.3% ---- RED -.08 .01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
XLU 50.3 -.46 50.47 50.4% ---- RED -.042 .063
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WEAT 6.32 -.16 6.35 -132.3% Bullish RED .167 -.001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YINN 31.84 -1.38 33.08 -383.7% ---- RED .026 -.139
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSX 21 -.35 20.74 148.1% Bullish RED .055 -.034
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AAPL 165.72 -7.08 175.82 -256.1% Bearish RED -.272 .056
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOOG 1072.96 -14.74 1037.98 206% ---- RED -.04 .04
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 95 -1.11 94.17 100.9% ---- RED -.073 .077
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMZN 1527.49 -29.42 1441.5 324% Bearish RED .057 .095
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FB 166.28 -1.82 164.83 52.9% ---- RED .031 -.06
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 228.71 -.33 231.49 -59.8% Bearish ---- -.101 .017
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 338.67 -1.97 331.77 139.8% Bearish RED .022 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 251.96 -2.21 257.88 -77.6% Bearish RED -.208 -.003
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 177.01 -.07 174.43 119.7% Bearish RED -.141 -.057
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 153.25 -2.45 152.14 98.4% Bearish RED -.092 .01
|
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20180420
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 97 Still a lot of new highs.
NEWLOWS 117
MAXCP 41
MINCP 275 Bearish Professional
TTTNH 60
TTTNL 258 Bearish Day Traders
FASTUP 95
FASTDOWN 94
CPCROSSA 22
CPCROSSD 178 Professionals were switching to bearish camp,
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 15
|
Table 3
Table 3
There is no one leadership group now.
Count of Stocks and NEW HIGHS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180420
No. NHs Pct
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MAXCP 41 23 56 %
COAL 10 1 10 %
CHEM 62 4 6 %
OILGAS 136 8 6 %
REGBANKS 33 2 6 %
COMODITY 56 3 5 %
INDMATER 86 4 5 %
MILITARY 38 2 5 %
SOFTWARE 66 3 5 %
HACKERS 24 1 4 %
BIG17 46 1 2 %
BIOTECH 383 6 2 %
CHINA 62 1 2 %
FIDSTKS 189 3 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
RETAIL 53 1 2 %
RUS-1000 827 14 2 %
ELECTRON 176 1 1 %
FINANCE 91 1 1 %
INDEXES 195 2 1 %
SP-100 96 1 1 %
SP500 481 7 1 %
|
Table 4Table 4
Count of Stocks and NEW LOWS in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180420
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BONDFUND 111 35 32 %
COAL 10 2 20 %
MINCP 275 53 19 %
BEVERAGE 20 2 10 %
REIT 177 18 10 %
AUTO 40 3 7 %
SP-100 96 7 7 %
CHEM 62 3 5 %
ELECTRON 176 8 5 %
SEMI 128 6 5 %
SP500 481 25 5 %
BIOTECH 383 16 4 %
FIDSTKS 189 7 4 %
GAMING 28 1 4 %
RETAIL 53 2 4 %
RUS-1000 827 32 4 %
DOWJONES 30 1 3 %
GREEN 30 1 3 %
MILITARY 38 1 3 %
ETFS 66 1 2 %
GOLD 50 1 2 %
INDMATER 86 2 2 %
SOFTWARE 66 1 2 %
INDEXES 195 1 1 %
NASD-100 89 1 1 %
OILGAS 136 1 1 %
|
Table 5
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
4/20/18
Bearish = 31
Bullish = 13
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDU 1 1 .857 1 1 1
HACKERS .833 .875 .875 .875 .75 .75
HOSPITAL .714 .714 .857 .714 .714 .571
GOLD .7 .66 .66 .6 .54 .6
OILGAS .676 .676 .705 .61 .566 .566
SOFTWARE .666 .727 .742 .727 .651 .606
UTILITY .666 .714 .785 .761 .714 .547
COMODITY .66 .732 .75 .642 .571 .571
MILITARY .605 .631 .631 .605 .605 .526
TRANSP .6 .65 .7 .6 .5 .25
GREEN .533 .6 .7 .633 .533 .466
INSURANC .531 .5 .5 .5 .5 .406
SOLAR .523 .571 .619 .571 .523 .523
N=13
============================================================================================
CHEM .5 .548 .629 .564 .419 .419
GUNS .5 .555 .555 .444 .444 .444
JETS .5 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1
============================================================================================
INDMATER .476 .534 .593 .488 .372 .337
FIDSTKS .439 .476 .502 .481 .386 .301
RUS-1000 .436 .47 .515 .489 .428 .363
COMPUTER .434 .565 .608 .608 .565 .434
NIFTY .433 .466 .566 .633 .5 .4
REGBANKS .424 .333 .242 .242 .242 .181
RETAIL .415 .471 .49 .49 .452 .452
SP500 .407 .449 .49 .465 .411 .334
FINANCE .406 .406 .285 .329 .318 .263
BEVERAGE .4 .45 .5 .55 .55 .5
INDEXES .394 .502 .579 .523 .425 .358
GAMING .392 .464 .535 .392 .285 .142
BIOTECH .391 .433 .467 .475 .404 .422
SP-100 .385 .427 .437 .375 .354 .281
BIG17 .369 .369 .369 .391 .304 .326
DOWJONES .366 .433 .4 .4 .4 .266
NASD-100 .359 .415 .494 .494 .426 .337
REIT .344 .418 .519 .548 .423 .333
FOOD .333 .888 .888 .666 .333 .555
ELECTRON .323 .363 .465 .477 .403 .38
CHINA .306 .274 .306 .258 .258 .258
COAL .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3
ETFS .287 .363 .454 .348 .318 .318
INFRA .257 .342 .4 .342 .114 .142
SEMI .242 .273 .406 .453 .375 .375
HOMEBLDG .176 .235 .352 .294 .294 .294
DJI-13 .153 .384 .384 .307 .307 .153
AUTO .15 .175 .3 .25 .25 .25
BIGBANKS .142 0 0 0 0 0
PIPELINE .142 0 .142 0 0 0
BONDFUND .036 .054 .081 .081 .072 .09
N=31
|