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Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Peerless Buy and Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
-----> More HELP LINKS
Documentation for TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016 ---> Corrections,Deeper Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016 ---> High Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 ---> Presidential Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016 ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to 2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016 ---> Killer Short Selling Techniques: ===> Order Here ($42.50)
It's As Easy as 1,2,3
TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling... Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
Earlier Q-Answers
QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
Our Different Signals
Better understand the difference between Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
New TigerPeerless Installation and Basic Uses' Instruction (11/25/2016)
See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells.
A few more pages will be added. But users could print this
main Installation and Uses' Page for reference.
Study- Trading SPY WITHOUT Peerless - Some Guidelines.
When completed this will be a new Tiger Trading E-Book.
Study- Examples of "Hands above the Head" top patterns.
Study- 9/3/2017 TigerSoft (not Peerless) charts of Major Tops as they occurred.
===> Please report any broken or out-of-date links. william_schmidt@hotmail.com
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3/15/2016 Today's rally by the DJI looked false. There were 774 more down than
up on the NYSE. Traders may not want to hold positions over the
weekend because Mondays have had a tendency to open down quite
a bit and also because the expected rate hike coming next week overhangs
the market. Once that is dispensed with, the DJI and the NASDAQ
should be ready to rally into Tax Day in April. This would be consistent
with past seasonality, at any rate.
The operative Peerless signal remains the Buy B5. Can we still trust this signal?
"Should we trust it so soon after a Sell S9?" is a fair question. Below are the
four cases of S9s occurring before a Buy B5 from 1929-2017. All of these
worked out well.
1) 19350218 S9 107.2
19350219 S3 105.9
19350312 B5 97.7 DJI rallied way up to 132.5 1.0% paper loss.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2) 19870406 S9 2405.54
19870414 B5 2253.98 Only 3.9% gain. 1.0% paper loss.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
3) 19891003 S9 2754.56
19891011 S9 2773.36
19891013 B5 2569.26 9.4% gain. No paper loss.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
4) 20090610 S9 8739.02
20090624 B5 8299.86 23.7% gain No paper loss.
Would a sharp decline now bring a judged or actual Sell S10? I don't think
that the recent support is flat enough for that. But a 5% paper loss on the B5 would
be much too high. It would be inconsistent with all but one of the
previous Buy B5s. That would make me consider the B5 cancelled.
What about the Sell S18 on 2/27 @25410 with the older Peerless?
The 2006 program, which only looked at data from 1965-2006, had in the
Help section the following. "Minor S18 - This is a warning signal only...
The DJI tags the 1% (upper) band with the "P"-Indicator very negative
and no accompanying S9 signal. The 21-dma must be declining" The
average drop was only 0.43% at the time of the next Buy signal. This
suggests that the S18 is not a very powerful signal. When I reviewed
all the near S9s since 1945, I concluded that its "addition to the force"
of Peerless signals would have meant only small changes here and there
to the overall system.
What Might Bring A DJI Decline Now?
If Boeing collapses, the DJI will certainly test its recent lows. If the FED raises
short-term rates by 1/2% instead of 1/4% next week, there will certainly be problems
for the market, too. But Trump is not going to suddenly reverse his military build-up
to deal with North Korea. And there is still no significant Inflation. The CPI is
rising only at a 2% rate, not the 3% or higher rate that usually brings on interest
rates high enough to hurt the stock market. So, the FED is not likely to surprise folks
next week.
The Republicans Might Lose in November
The series of Republican by-election losses does scare the stock market.
But, with Trump in the White House, even if Democrats got control of
both sides of Congress, he could still protect his economic agenda with
vetoes. And I don't think he will lose control of Congress. Most
incumbents will be re-elected. That's just the way the districts are drawn.
And, more important, voters when it comes right down to deciding, usually
vote their pocket-book. As long as the market is up in November, the
Republicans will get the credit in the eyes of most voters. This is what
Trump's "wager on the strong" is all about.
But what if the Economy turns down? That is just not what the
Jobs' numbers are showing. It is not what the low rate of inflation shows.
And Larry Kudlow is believed to be a very effective communicator of the
supply-side, "trickle down", Coolidge-Trump agenda. Perhaps, there
will be another Crash. But first, more of the Public must join the party.
Trading The Market Now
Short-term traders should probably pay most attention to the Hourly
DJI and the 5-day Stochastic of the DJI-13 (its highest priced stocks.)
We are close to getting a red Buy on the DJI-13. But a break below the
Hourly DJI's support line will most likely quickly drop the DJI to 24000
and then bring a re-test of its early February lows. Watch the OBV-DISI
Line. We will need to see the Hourly OBV break its downtrend following
such a sell-off to be able to judge that the test of 24000 is over and a rally
will follow.
Still, the market is up a long ways over a very long time, so Profit-taking is now
a factor once a decline starts. As a result, Professionals are now selling into early
strength. This has caused four straight red Candle-Stick charts. Professionals
know now that the DJI is below its 65-dma and the 65-dma will turn down
soon if the DJI were to drop below its price three months ago, 24651.74, about
222 points below today's close. This would be a bearish sign. Institutions sell
when this happens or quickly hedge with index option puts and leveraged
bearish ETFs. We should factor this understanding in, I would say.
So hedging by shorting some of the many Bearish MINCPs has been
suggested. Similarly, watch the Closing Powers of your long positions.
If prices are over-extended and a stock's Closing Power breaks its uptrend,
then join in the profit-taking. For now I would still hold AAPL, QQQ and
some of the very strong internet-computer stocks among our Bullish MAXCPs.
Charts 3/15/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/15/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20180314 3-15 3-14 3-13 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 84 106 127 NEWLOWS 108 63 32 MAXCP 24 40 60 MINCP 193 94 57 TTTNH 40 58 73 TTTNL 293 92 109 FASTUP 99 128 162 FASTDOWN 124 102 81 CPCROSSA 50 38 30 CPCROSSD 95 108 78 Bearish but not as much as might be expected. BIGVOLUP 5 8 5 BIGVODN 32 14 13Table 3 New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180315 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAXCP 24 12 50 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % HACKERS 24 2 8 % SOFTWARE 66 3 5 % BIG17 46 2 4 % GAMING 28 1 4 % FINANCE 93 3 3 % GREEN 30 1 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % NASD-100 89 3 3 % BIOTECH 383 8 2 % CHINA 62 1 2 % ELECTRON 178 3 2 % FIDSTKS 192 3 2 % SEMI 130 3 2 % SP500 482 9 2 % UTILITY 42 1 2 % ETFS 67 1 1 % INDEXES 195 2 1 % REIT 177 1 1 % RUS-1000 832 12 1 % ------------------------------------------------------ Remained have none.
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/15/18 Bearish = 24 Bullish = 20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGBANKS .878 .787 .878 .878 .939 .727 HOSPITAL .875 .75 .75 1 .875 .875 EDU .857 .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 JETS .777 .777 .888 .777 .777 .555 NIFTY .766 .766 .866 .866 .833 .733SOFTWARE .681 .712 .742 .803 .787 .727 FOOD .666 .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 HACKERS .666 .666 .625 .666 .708 .666 GREEN .633 .6 .6 .7 .6 .533 COMPUTER .608 .695 .739 .739 .695 .652NASD-100 .606 .629 .685 .73 .685 .606 ELECTRON .584 .606 .612 .651 .617 .584 FINANCE .58 .58 .645 .731 .709 .623 SEMI .576 .592 .584 .661 .607 .592 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .714 .714 .571INDEXES .564 .584 .651 .666 .661 .569 MILITARY .552 .578 .631 .684 .71 .684 BIOTECH .55 .592 .629 .652 .647 .613 CHINA .532 .532 .467 .612 .596 .483 FIDSTKS .51 .505 .557 .598 .604 .494 N=20 =========================================================================================== BIGGEST 2017 .5 .521 .478 .565 .543 .521 Gainers INSURANC .5 .5 .562 .562 .625 .468 =========================================================================================== FIDELITY .487 .512 .56 .658 .658 .463 ETFS .477 .567 .537 .641 .611 .462 RUS-1000 .466 .477 .515 .546 .55 .45 TRANSP .45 .45 .65 .6 .65 .4 SP500 .446 .458 .502 .541 .558 .45GAMING .428 .464 .464 .5 .5 .5 COAL .4 .5 .4 .4 .4 .5 DOWJONES .4 .366 .4 .466 .533 .366 SP-100 .395 .406 .468 .52 .552 .395 CHEM .387 .419 .532 .58 .58 .435DJI-13 .384 .384 .384 .538 .615 .384 SOLAR .38 .428 .428 .476 .476 .523 INDMATER .375 .386 .488 .522 .522 .42 COMODITY .304 .42 .463 .507 .536 .434 BEVERAGE .3 .4 .3 .35 .35 .3LOWACCUM .288 .329 .344 .363 .338 .298 AUTO .25 .25 .275 .25 .3 .25 GOLD .215 .333 .392 .333 .274 .235 OILGAS .207 .271 .278 .292 .278 .185 REIT .203 .242 .225 .231 .197 .146INFRA .142 .171 .257 .342 .371 .228 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .027 .036 .027 .027 .027 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0
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3/14/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the Buy B5. But short-term rates made another
recovery new high today, Boeing took another hit and the talking TV heads are scaring
Republicans into thinking that they may lose their majority in the House. As a result,
for the third day in a row, the DJI lost an early gain and fell by more than 100 points.
We see this most clearly in DIA's candle-stick chart below, where another "red-popsicle"
appeared as a result of the market's "big fade" after an up-opening. Boeing was a big
part of the DJI's rally since Trump was elected. Now its declining is having an opposite
effect and making the DJI act much weaker than most of the rest of the market.
I've suggested being long AAPL, QQQ and some of the computer/internet MAXCPs
while hedging with some Bearish MINCPs. Let's continue in this mode for now.
If the Hourly DJI and DIA (below) were to break their uptrend-supports in their triangle
patterns tomorrow, a deeper decline than to the recent lows would be suggested.
On the other hand, if the DJI and DIA do not breakdown, it would suggest that prices
will most likely work sidewise towards the apex of the triangle patterns and not make
a big move either way. The biggest triangle pattern breakouts take place about
2/3 of the way out to their apex and on a noticeable rise in volume.
The high recent turnover in the White House staff is also unsettling, but today's
appointment of Larry Kudlow, a long-time TV stock market commentator, should
help traders feel they now have a trusted friend in the White House. Kudlow is a
zealous supply-sider. He will help Trump explain his message that tax-cuts especially
for the wealthy will benefit the entire country. Kudlow's appointment represents
a double-downing of Trump's bet that the stock market will be booming at Election time
this fall. In return, it is possible that Kudlow will get Trump to back off his protectionist
tariffs. I would think the market will like the appointment and act positively. Of course,
if it does not rise on this news, it will not be a good sign. DJI and SP-500 traders
should be watching BA, the uptrendline-supports, the pattern of bearish closings below
the opening and one more thing.
The 5-day Stochastic has been trading DIA particularly well
on the chart the Index of the 13-highest priced DJI stocks.
The 14-day Stochastic has also worked well.
Our Tiger chart of the highest priced DJI-13 now shows that the automatic Red
5-day stochastic is working exceptionally well in calling the swing of the DJI. It is
still on a red Sell, but now oversold. Watch this chart for the time being. It should
tell us when the DJI will turn around and rally again off support.
We have be pleased that the tech ETF trio, QQQ, TECL and SOXL are holding
up well near their highs and well-above their 65-dma. There is ample precedent
for their doing significantly better than the DJI, but only as long as the NYSE A/D
Line's uptrend is now violated.
Charts 3/14/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/14/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPS
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20180314 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 106 127 NEWLOWS 63 32 MAXCP 40 60 MINCP 94 57 TTTNH 58 73 TTTNL 92 109 FASTUP 128 162 FASTDOWN 102 81 CPCROSSA 38 30 CPCROSSD 108 78 Bearish but not as much as might be expected. BIGVOLUP 8 5 BIGVODN 14 13Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 20180314 No NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAXCP 40 27 68 % -------------------------------------------------- SOLAR 21 3 14 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % HACKERS 24 3 13 % SOFTWARE 66 5 8 % FOOD 15 1 7 % GAMING 28 2 7 % BIOTECH 383 23 6 % SEMI 130 6 5 % ELECTRON 178 5 3 % FIDSTKS 193 5 3 % GREEN 30 1 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % NASD-100 89 3 3 % NIFTY 29 1 3 % BIG17 46 1 2 % INDEXES 195 3 2 % RUS-1000 832 17 2 % SP500 482 8 2 % UTILITY 42 1 2 % COMODITY 69 1 1 % ETFS 67 1 1 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % REIT 177 1 1 % Others = None
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/14/18 Bullish = 24 Bearish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 1 .99 .99 .99 .99 .971 EDU .857 .857 .857 .714 .857 .714 REGBANKS .787 .878 .878 .939 .727 .787 JETS .777 .888 .777 .777 .555 .555 NIFTY .758 .862 .862 .827 .724 .689HOSPITAL .75 .75 1 .875 1 .875 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 SOFTWARE .712 .742 .803 .787 .727 .712 COMPUTER .695 .739 .739 .695 .652 .695 HACKERS .666 .625 .666 .708 .666 .666NASD-100 .629 .685 .73 .685 .606 .584 ELECTRON .606 .612 .651 .617 .578 .55 GREEN .6 .6 .7 .6 .533 .5 BIOTECH .595 .629 .652 .647 .61 .558 SEMI .592 .584 .661 .607 .584 .561INDEXES .584 .651 .666 .661 .574 .558 FINANCE .58 .645 .731 .709 .634 .634 MILITARY .578 .631 .684 .71 .684 .657 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .714 .714 .571 .571 ETFS .567 .537 .641 .611 .477 .417CHINA .532 .467 .612 .596 .483 .467 BIG17 .521 .478 .565 .543 .521 .5 FIDELITY .512 .56 .658 .658 .463 .463 FIDSTKS .502 .554 .595 .601 .492 .45 N=24 ============================================================================================ COAL .5 .4 .4 .4 .5 .5 INSURANC .5 .562 .562 .625 .531 .468 ============================================================================================ RUS-1000 .477 .515 .546 .55 .456 .436 GAMING .464 .464 .5 .5 .5 .5 SP500 .458 .502 .541 .558 .454 .437 TRANSP .45 .65 .6 .65 .4 .4 SOLAR .428 .428 .476 .476 .523 .428COMODITY .42 .463 .507 .536 .434 .55 CHEM .419 .532 .58 .58 .451 .451 SP-100 .406 .468 .52 .552 .416 .406 BEVERAGE .4 .3 .35 .35 .3 .3 INDMATER .386 .488 .522 .522 .431 .465DJI-13 .384 .384 .538 .615 .384 .461 DOWJONES .366 .4 .466 .533 .4 .366 GOLD .333 .392 .333 .274 .254 .235 OILGAS .271 .278 .292 .278 .192 .207 RETAIL .264 .358 .339 .339 .301 .339AUTO .25 .275 .25 .3 .25 .225 REIT .242 .225 .231 .197 .135 .118 INFRA .171 .257 .342 .371 .228 .285 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .036 .027 .027 .027 .009 .009PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N= 21
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3/13/2017 The DJI's close today BELOW its 65-dma seems to have set off a series of automatic
sell programs. That coupled with news that MSFT would be sued for gender bias,
that the Trump Admin. would not allow Chinese Broadcom to buy San Diego-based
QCOM plus a rash of sudden Trump "You're fired"s, the swiftly gathering crisis over the
poisonings in London and the expected loss by another Republican Congressmen in a
key by-election in a previously Red District, - all these things - drove the major ETFs
down sharply after a strong-looking opening. Nor is this all. Now we must await a rate
hike the FED, though today the Labor Department reported that the official CPI (rate
of annualized inflation) was only 2%.
The operative Peerless signals remains a Buy B5. If it produces a typical
gain, we should get a Sell signal on another DJI new high. Today's action may cast
doubt on that prediction, but there is still a lot of positive underlying Accumulation
in the NASDAQ, QQQ, TECL and SOXL. Also see in Table 1 further below that
their Closing Powers are rising as are their 5-day moving averages. The news
accounted for decline today, I would say. The pullback was in keeping with
how much tech stock prices had recently risen. As long as the NYSE A/D Line
is in an uptrend, remain bullish and trust Peerless.
A lot depends now on how fast the FED decides to raise interest rates.
See in the chart above how a rise to 1.75% for the Federal Funds Rate is expected
and nearly built into the market. I see in the still rising NYSE A/D Line more proof
that the FED will not raise rates aggressively. The CPI number of 2% released
by the Labor Department today is not scary enough, I would think, to cause the Feds to
be aggressive in whatever they announce next week. If I am right and they choose a more
"dovish" announcement then the market may still enjoy a nice advance in here.
Right now, the Futures are up. There should be some relief for the market when the
decision is finally announced. My historical studies suggest that we should not fear a bear
market until short-term rates go over 3%. The 1950s seems like the closest historical parallel.
There were three or four 8%-11% DJI pullbacks in 1955 and 1956 before the final bull market
peak in July 1957.
But note, too, that bulls will be very unhappy if another early rally is completely
snuffed out, as happened today. These "snuffed-out" rallies take their toll on confidence.
They also produce "red popsicles" on our candle-stick charts, falling Closing Power
trends and declining price trend-lines. This is what the DIA and DJI charts now show.
DIA Candle-Stick chart: the Red reversals show closings significantly below openings.
Distribution is occurring at lower and lower levels.
DJIA's Closing Power and TTT (Day Traders' Tool) are in falling trends.
The Tiger Chart of DJI's 13 Highest Priced stocks
suggests we should now be using the 5-day stochastic to trade DIA.
Today's Decline
The DJI today closed 142 points below its still rising 65-dma. Because this
key moving average is still rising, there is still a good chance that it will whipsaw
back above it. Probably, the bearish short-term signs are too much in evidence
to think that it will make a run to new highs this month.
What else should we have expected from the 13th of the month? The tech decline
today confounded the promising breakout by AAPL and other tech new highs. Big and
bearish short-term "red" popsicles now endanger the candle-stick charts of most
of our favorite ETFs. These, of course, are caused by a serious decline and lower
close following what seemed to be a very promising, higher opening. We've seen
a number of these in the last few years. They have always been scary-looking, but
usually the declines in the major ETFs have been over fairly quickly once there
has been another re-test of the rising 65-dma.
.
Charts 3/13/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/13/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/13/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 250.22 -1.74 248.11 27.6% ---- RED .046 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7511.01 -77.31 7396.65 93% Bullish RED .195 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 276.72 -1.8 272.78 69.7% Bullish RED .128 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 171.71 -2.37 168.93 92.7% Bullish RED .168 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 353.32 -1.93 349.77 60.9% Bullish RED .22 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 158.46 -.74 156.74 98.2% Bullish RED .199 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 74.03 -1.8 71.27 194.5% Bullish RED .204 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 34.83 -.31 W35.71 -328.6% ---- RED -.034 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 191.88 -9.4 182.97 273.6% Bullish RED .176 .341 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 141.08 -4.88 135.22 290.4% Bullish RED .17 .227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.92 -.81 111.8 124% Bullish RED .22 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.78 .24 125.72 -29.8% Bullish BLUE .095 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.69 -.09 W6.79 -176.4% Bullish RED .128 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.7 -.37 24.29 40.5% Bullish RED .058 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.91 -.18 17.87 133.5% Bullish RED .024 -.286 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.17 -.25 W30.81 -129.3% Bullish ---- .186 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.46 -.06 23.43 2.1% Bearish ---- -.136 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.33 .17 101.93 19.6% Bearish ---- -.103 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.72 .11 48.9 45.7% Bullish RED .006 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.64 -.04 W6.78 -162.8% Bullish RED .285 .098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.23 -1.5 35.16 251% ---- RED .049 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.94 -.41 W23.01 -43.1% ---- RED .138 .074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 179.97 -1.75 175.03 92.7% Bullish RED .143 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1138.17 -26.33 1109.64 190.6% Bullish RED .075 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 94.41 -2.36 93.86 57.4% Bullish RED .18 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1588.18 -10.21 1545 161.7% Bullish RED .286 .331 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 181.88 -2.88 W183.71 57.3% ---- RED .054 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 247.71 -2.05 241.84 113.7% Bullish RED .053 .246 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 338.67 -5.52 W347.04 -147% ---- RED -.003 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 268.53 -4.85 265.35 29.8% Bullish RED .146 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 178.35 -1.36 W178.58 -91.4% Bearish RED -.104 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 153.69 -.81 151.51 -1.9% ---- RED .006 -.038Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories 20180313 ------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 127 NEWLOWS 32 MAXCP 60 MINCP 57 TTTNH 73 TTTNL 109 FASTUP 162 FASTDOWN 81 CPCROSSA 30 CPCROSSD 78 Bearish but not as much as might be expected. BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 13Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 20180313 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- MAXCP 60 40 67 % Closing Power New Highs. (A good indicator might be the % of NHs that have CP new highs. The higher that number, the more bullish.) =================================================================== JETS 9 1 11 % FIDELITY 41 4 10 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % BIOTECH 383 27 7 % GAMING 28 2 7 % GREEN 30 2 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % BIG17 48 2 4 % FINANCE 93 4 4 % NASD-100 89 3 3 % NIFTY 29 1 3 % SOFTWARE 66 2 3 % SP500 482 13 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % ELECTRON 178 4 2 % INDMATER 88 2 2 % INDEXES 195 3 2 % RUS-1000 832 19 2 % SEMI 130 2 2 % UTILITY 42 1 2 % FIDSTKS 193 2 1 % REIT 177 1 1 % SP-100 96 1 1 % --------------------------------------------------- Others: None
Table 4RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/13/18 Bullish = 27 Bearish = 19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 1 1 1 .984 .968 .937 JETS .888 .777 .777 .555 .555 .555 REGBANKS .878 .878 .939 .727 .787 .787 NIFTY .862 .862 .827 .724 .689 .689 EDU .857 .857 .714 .857 .714 .857HOSPITAL .75 1 .875 1 .875 .75 SOFTWARE .742 .803 .787 .727 .727 .666 COMPUTER .739 .739 .695 .652 .695 .652 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 NASD-100 .685 .73 .685 .606 .606 .606INDEXES .651 .666 .661 .574 .574 .574 TRANSP .65 .6 .65 .4 .4 .35 FINANCE .645 .731 .709 .634 .623 .58 MILITARY .631 .684 .71 .684 .684 .631 BIOTECH .629 .652 .647 .61 .558 .53HACKERS .625 .666 .708 .666 .666 .666 ELECTRON .612 .651 .617 .578 .544 .522 GREEN .6 .7 .6 .533 .5 .466 SEMI .584 .661 .607 .584 .553 .515 BIGBANKS .571 .714 .714 .571 .571 .571INSURANC .562 .562 .625 .531 .5 .468 FIDELITY .56 .658 .658 .463 .463 .463 FIDSTKS .554 .595 .601 .492 .461 .461 ETFS .537 .641 .611 .477 .432 .447 CHEM .532 .58 .58 .451 .451 .403RUS-1000 .515 .546 .55 .456 .441 .454 SP500 .502 .541 .558 .454 .443 .446 N=27 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGGEST 2017 Gainers .5 .583 .562 .541 .52 .52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INDMATER .488 .522 .522 .431 .465 .454 SP-100 .468 .52 .552 .416 .416 .437 GAMING .464 .5 .5 .5 .5 .428 COMODITY .463 .507 .536 .434 .55 .666 CHINA .46 .603 .587 .476 .46 .507SOLAR .428 .476 .476 .523 .428 .476 COAL .4 .4 .4 .5 .5 .5 DOWJONES .4 .466 .533 .4 .366 .366 GOLD .392 .333 .274 .254 .235 .392 DJI-13 .384 .538 .615 .384 .461 .384RETAIL .358 .339 .339 .301 .358 .471 BEVERAGE .3 .35 .35 .3 .3 .25 OILGAS .278 .292 .278 .192 .207 .271 AUTO .275 .25 .3 .25 .225 .225 INFRA .257 .342 .371 .228 .285 .314REIT .225 .231 .197 .135 .118 .09 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .027 .027 .027 .009 .009 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N =19
==============================================================================
3/12/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the Buy B5. The median gain for
these signals is over 10% on the DJI. Today Boeing, UTX and the
DJI acted as though they were surprised that Trump said he would be
ready, if conditions were right, to talk directly to North Korea's "rocket man".
But even though the DJI fell 157 points after a few hours of trading, it failed
fall below its support at its rising 65-dma.
The real story is the potentially explosive power building now in tech stocks and ETFs
as well as QQQ, now that AAPL is making a confirmed breakout into all-time high
territory.
Elsewhere, much of the rest of the market gained, rising not just against
the DJI's decline but in spite of the FED's upcoming decision this week
on whether to raise interest rates. Thus, one had to be impressed that on the
NYSE, where dividends are still very important, there were 305 more
gainers than losers at the close and up volume was 42% more than down
volume. As I've suggested, QQQ, TECL and SOXL remained strong.
QQQ SOXL have now risen 59.8% of the time, day-to-day, for the last year
and both Professionals and the Public are still eager buyers.
TECL is even stronger, rising 60.6% of the time. Expect much more
out of all these. Hot DIA-ETF-money is bound to go into them. Performance-
minded traders have surely noticed that the QQQ is now out-doing
DIA by +9.3% over just the last 50 trading days. This is the definition of
our ITRS indicator. Of course, the leveraged SOXL is outperforming
DIA by a whopping 40.6% over the last 50-trading days. There is tremendous
momentum in these tech ETFs and momentum like this creates greed and
chasing, as well as short-covering.
What is also boosting QQQ is the biggest tech stock of all, AAPL, which
made a confirmed, flat-topped breakout into all-time high territory today.
Its chart pattern looks very good. Don't be shy now. It takes a long
time for the tech market to setup a wild, climatic advance like we may see
next. Buy AAPL.
Charts 3/12/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/12/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/12/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 251.96 -1.6 248.84 62.5% Bullish RED .158 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7588.32 27.51 7372.01 173.7% Bullish BLUE .282 .075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 278.52 -.35 272.88 115.4% Bullish RED .214 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 174.08 .92 168.54 184.2% Bullish BLUE .278 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.25 .34 349.04 141.3% Bullish ---- .338 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 159.2 .28 155.37 175.7% Bullish RED .265 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 75.83 -.35 71.18 377.5% Bullish RED .285 .091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.14 -.19 W37.16 -89.9% ---- RED .044 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 201.28 6.08 181.54 752.1% Bullish BLUE .317 .407 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 145.96 1.38 133 508.6% Bullish BLUE .267 .265 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.73 .37 111.12 172.5% Bullish BLUE .299 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.54 0 W126.53 14.3% ---- BLUE .074 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.78 -.1 W6.93 -124.3% Bullish ---- .123 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.07 .03 24.5 130.4% Bullish BLUE .085 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 19.09 .42 18.42 2.7% Bullish BLUE .086 -.264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.42 -.01 W30.96 -102.7% Bullish ---- .193 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.52 -.03 23.45 2.1% Bearish ---- -.108 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.16 .24 101.93 10.8% Bearish BLUE -.167 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.61 .21 49.27 -33.4% Bullish BLUE .044 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.68 .01 W6.86 -154.4% Bullish BLUE .216 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 38.73 .31 35.39 563.5% Bullish RED .108 .15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.35 -.13 23.14 -38.7% Bullish ---- .224 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 181.72 1.74 176.67 138.3% Bullish BLUE .215 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1164.5 4.46 1095.06 329.5% Bullish BLUE .184 .092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 96.77 .23 93.32 165.9% Bullish BLUE .282 .111 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1598.39 19.5 1537.64 241.6% Bullish BLUE .324 .334 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 184.76 -.47 179.78 119.6% Bullish RED .155 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 249.76 4.43 242.16 292.5% Bullish BLUE .116 .249 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 344.19 -10.33 W348.92 -122.1% ---- RED .07 .146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 273.38 2.61 266.93 192.5% Bullish BLUE .219 .05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 179.71 -2.45 W181.64 -56.3% Bearish RED -.021 -.073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 154.5 -3.75 153.75 110% Bullish RED .08 -.037
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180312
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 297 Bullish 10:1 ratio.
NEWLOWS 28
MAXCP 184 Bullish ratio.
MINCP 33
TTTNH 148 Unusually bullish
TTTNL 53
FASTUP 244 Bullish
FASTDOWN 75
CPCROSSA 78
CPCROSSD 52Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180312 ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 7 3 43 % NIFTY 30 7 23 % COMPUTER 23 5 22 % NASD-100 98 18 18 % HACKERS 24 4 17 % FINANCE 93 15 16 % REGBANKS 33 5 15 % DJI-13 13 2 15 % SOFTWARE 66 10 15 % ==================================================== MORNSTAR 238 34 14 % SOLAR 21 3 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % DOWJONES 30 4 13 % SEMI 130 17 13 % FOOD 15 2 13 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % JETS 9 1 11 % INDEXES 195 20 10 % ELECTRON 178 17 10 % BIOTECH 382 40 10 % SP-100 96 8 8 % RUS-1000 832 63 8 % GAMING 28 2 7 % SP500 482 35 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % GREEN 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % ETFS 67 2 3 % COMODITY 70 2 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % CHINA 63 1 2 % REIT 177 4 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % UTILITY 42 1 2 % INDMATER 88 1 1 % ----------------------------------------------------- Others with None: BIGMIL AUTO OILGAS INFRA INSURANC COAL GOLD PIPELINE BEVERAGE BONDFUNDTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/12/18 Bullish = 31 Bearish = 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOSPITAL 1 .875 1 .875 .75 .75 REGBANKS .878 .939 .727 .787 .787 .606 NIFTY .866 .833 .733 .7 .7 .733 EDU .857 .714 .857 .714 .857 .857 BIGMIL .833 1 1 1 1 1SOFTWARE .803 .787 .727 .727 .666 .681 JETS .777 .777 .555 .555 .666 .444 COMPUTER .739 .695 .652 .695 .652 .608 NASD-100 .734 .693 .653 .653 .632 .612 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 .733FINANCE .731 .709 .634 .623 .591 .548 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 GREEN .7 .6 .533 .5 .466 .4 MILITARY .684 .71 .684 .684 .631 .631 HACKERS .666 .708 .666 .666 .666 .625INDEXES .666 .661 .574 .574 .589 .507 SEMI .661 .607 .584 .553 .515 .453 BIOTECH .654 .649 .612 .56 .531 .526 ELECTRON .651 .617 .578 .544 .516 .46 ETFS .641 .611 .477 .432 .462 .388CHINA .603 .587 .476 .46 .507 .444 TRANSP .6 .65 .4 .4 .4 .3 CHEM .58 .58 .451 .451 .403 .29 INSURANC .562 .625 .531 .5 .468 .437 MORNSTAR .558 .567 .462 .457 .466 .407RUS-1000 .546 .55 .456 .441 .455 .418 SP500 .541 .558 .454 .443 .452 .427 DJI-13 .538 .615 .384 .461 .384 .461 INDMATER .522 .522 .431 .465 .465 .34 SP-100 .52 .552 .416 .416 .437 .406COMODITY .514 .542 .442 .557 .671 .528 N=31 ========================================================================================== GAMING .5 .5 .5 .5 .464 .321 ========================================================================================== SOLAR .476 .476 .523 .428 .476 .333 DOWJONES .466 .533 .4 .366 .366 .4 COAL .4 .4 .5 .5 .5 .4 BEVERAGE .35 .35 .3 .3 .25 .25 INFRA .342 .371 .228 .285 .342 .228 RETAIL .339 .339 .301 .358 .471 .452 GOLD .333 .274 .254 .235 .392 .254 OILGAS .292 .278 .192 .207 .271 .271 UTILITY .285 .309 .285 .166 .238 .285 AUTO .25 .3 .25 .225 .225 .225 REIT .231 .197 .135 .118 .09 .084 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .027 .027 .009 .009 .009 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=14
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
3/9/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the Buy B5. The median gain for
these is over 10%. So a new high must be expected by the DJI. Acting
much better than DIA and SPY are QQQ, TECL and SOXL. These
made confirmed flat-top breakouts into all-time high territory. Performance
minded professionals should go on a buying binge in these.
Every 30 Years!
Several new points to make tonight: First, above every 30 years there is a
rip-roaring Republican bull market. I skip the 1890s and the McKinley
bull market only because I have no chart for it.
The 1920s bull market lasted until the Fed raised interest rates to 6%. They
did this despite a weakening economy because 1/2 of all loans were being used
to play the stock market on margin as low as 10%. And Britain had forced
their hand by raising the key rate there to 6.5%. We are nowhere near a top like
the one in September 1929. The internal technicals of the market are vastly better.
Back then, the DJI first had to have 3 or 4 short-term pullbacks of 10% followed by
new highs to convince most that the market would never go down. We have
experienced only one such pullback.
The 1950s Republican bull market only peaked in July 1957 when short-
term rates rose over 3%. And before that there were 3 ten-percent pullbacks.
The A/D Line bearishly diverged at the top because of the rise in interest rates.
There was no big tax cut then. Instead, there was the start of a vast Public
infrastructure program.
The 1980s Republican bull market only peaked after there had been a wave
of huge mergers and a much publicized insider trading scandal involving Drexel Burham
and Ivan Boesky. There were four 8%-10% pullbacks in 1986 and 1987 before the
final top in October 1987. The top took place only after the Fed pushed up the
Discount Rate to 6% the month before the October S9/S12 peak.
Now 30 years later, we again see another big Republican bull market. There has not
yet been a wild merger mania. There has not yet been a huge insider trading scandal
(though Carl Icahn is pushing his luck). And the "little guy" is not buying on margin
like in the 1920s. Instead, taxes and regulations are being reduced as they were
in 1925 and 1926. We could have a bull market next year, too, based on the
usual special bullishness of the year before a Presidential Election!
Weekly Charts Look Superb
Another bullish factor is how high the AI/200 scores are now on the weekly charts of
DIA, QQQ and TECL (shown below), as well as SPY, etc. I don't yet know if
such nearly perfect AI/200 scores on weekly charts can be said to make a big
decline very unlikely. I will work on this more this coming week. But they certainly
look impressive. Stay tuned...
The Best Stocks as Vetted by Fidelity and TigerSoft's Power-Ranker
Something else you should know. I looked up the top 10-holdings for
all 40+ Fidelity Sector funds. I then built a directory of these stocks, figuring that
Fidelity has a great long-term track record and they have carefully vetted all
these stocks. Then I ran the Tiger Power Ranker against the 190+ stocks in
the new FIDSTKs directory I created (and which can be downloaded from
the Tiger Data page. The top 10 Power Ranked are:
New High? Symbol Price 3/9 AI/200 IP21 ITRS
------------------------------------------------------------
yes EPAM 122.52 180 .093 .113
no NOW 176.76 183 .038 .310
yes CRM 127.41 175 .218 .217
no ABBV 119.29 167 .086 .195
yes GDDY 63.98 173 .081 .254
no FB 185.23 166 .079 .029
yes MSFT 96.34 165 .185 .105
no TWOU 87.85 156 .102 .360
yes NFLX 331.44 170 .273 .74
no V 124.51 155 .142 .076The Big Jobs' Number's Bullishness
The DJI roared past the resistance of its 65-dma. Its 441 point jump on the
news that 313,000 new jobs were created in the 28-day month February.
Very impressive number. It is bound to help Republican re-election odds this
November. The jobs number was way above the 200,000, or so, that
was widely expected. Bears will tell you that this means the Fed will be
raising rates when they meet this coming week. But that just might not be the
case. The Fed is not non-partisan. They are bankers. They do not want
heavy-handed Democrat regulations. I'm thinking that the market is acting as
though there will be no rate hike. That such work has already leaked out is
quite possible. I can find no evidence that the FED has ever disciplined
its member or staff for leaking. (The news that Trump may succeed in getting
North Korea to not further develop missiles and nuclear weapons would also
be wonderful, if true. But this is far from definite or verifiable.)
I went back over all the cases since 2004, when the Labor Dept. reported
a monthly Jobs figure of 300,000 or more. Such reports are bullish in that
the DJI seems always to work its way higher until the next Peerless Sell signal.
But I can find no big jumps in the market just after such reports came out on the
first Friday of the month with the superb Jobs' number. But it is bullish, though
not necessarily immediately. This is what makes me think that word may have
gotten out that the Fed will not be very aggressive in raising rates.
Here are the cases where the monthly Jobs number
was above 300,000 and a summary of what happened.
Jobs No. Date Reported Subsequent Action by DJI
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.) 332,000 4/2/2004 DJI immediately fell from 10471 to 9907 on 5/19/04.
It then stayed in a flat trading range until breaking out
to the upside in November after Bush was re-elected.
There were no Peerless Sells in this period.
2) 346,000 11/5/04 DJI rose from 10388 to 10912 on 3/8/05 and Sell S4.
3) 363,000 5/6/05 DJI rose slightly from 10345 to 10623 on 6/7/05
and then stayed in trading range until 2006.
4) 337,000 12/2/2005 DJI rose from 10345 to 11642 on 5/10/06 and S9.
5) 315,000 3/3/2006 DJI rose from 11022 to 11642 on 5/10/06 and S9.
6) 516,000 6/4/2010 DJI rose from 9931 to 10443, the top of trading range S12 on 6/12/2010.7) 360,000 2/3/2012 DJI rose from 12862 to 13125 on 3/12/2013.
8) 304,000 5/2/2014 DJI rose from 16513 to 16977 on 7/17/2014.
9) 353,000 12/5/2014 DJI fell from 17959 to 17069 two weeks later and then rose to 18312 on 5/19/15.
10) 326,000 6/5/2015 DJI rose from 17842 to 18120 on 7/16/2015 and S12.
11) 351,000 11/6/2015 DJI rose from 17910 to 18120 on 7/16/2015 and S12.
12) 325,000 8/5/2016 DJI traded very flat and sidewise for 3 months until Trump's election.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13) 313,000 3/9/2018 Jumped 400+ on the news.
===============================================================================
WEEKLY CHARTS SHOW EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AI (Accumulation)
Charts 3/9/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/9/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/09/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 253.56 4.42 248.84 165.5% ---- BLUE .077 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7560.81 132.86 7330.7 205.9% Bullish BLUE .216 .065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 278.87 4.77 272.19 179.8% Bullish BLUE .12 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 173.16 3.3 167.83 213.1% Bullish BLUE .162 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 354.91 5.78 345.37 189.2% Bullish BLUE .197 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 158.92 2.5 153.71 212% Bullish BLUE .169 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 76.18 4.31 70.38 605.2% Bullish BLUE .21 .093 high --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.33 1.42 35.78 21.1% Bullish BLUE -.025 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 195.2 11.45 173.69 732.9% Bullish BLUE .234 .37 high --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 144.58 7.72 132.09 612% Bullish BLUE .206 .25 high --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.36 1.74 110.86 211.8% Bullish BLUE .218 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.54 .12 125.18 6% ---- BLUE .056 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.88 .25 W6.95 58.7% Bullish BLUE .063 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.04 .61 24.43 203.4% ---- BLUE -.007 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.67 .94 W19.08 148% ---- BLUE -.02 -.302 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.43 .32 W31.05 -24.4% Bullish ---- .112 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.55 -.03 23.51 8.5% Bearish ---- -.034 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.92 -.22 W101.94 -7.4% Bearish ---- -.13 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.4 .14 W49.94 46.7% Bullish BLUE -.04 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.67 -.13 W6.89 -80.6% Bullish RED .191 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 38.42 2.84 34.69 513.9% ---- BLUE .044 .117 high --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.48 .41 W23.53 49.6% Bullish BLUE .113 .076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 179.98 3.04 176.82 106.9% Bullish BLUE .132 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1160.04 34.04 1090.93 368.7% Bullish BLUE .123 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 96.54 2.11 93.64 186.3% Bullish BLUE .186 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1578.89 27.03 1523.61 256.7% Bullish BLUE .236 .316 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 185.23 2.89 180.4 238.4% ---- BLUE .08 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 245.33 4.15 235.65 183.5% ---- BLUE .04 .217 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.52 5.79 352.75 141.4% Bullish BLUE .043 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 270.77 4.43 263.12 239.6% Bullish BLUE .149 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 182.16 4.22 181.74 103% Bearish BLUE -.039 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 158.25 4.66 151.12 392.3% Bullish BLUE .037 -.014
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180309 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- NIFTY 30 11 37 % SOFTWARE 66 24 36 % COMPUTER 23 7 30 % BIGBANKS 7 2 29 % EDU 7 2 29 % NASD-100 99 28 28 % REGBANKS 33 9 27 % HACKERS 24 6 25 % HOSPITAL 8 2 25 % FINANCE 93 22 24 % MILITARY 38 7 18 % BIGMIL 6 1 17 % MORNSTAR 238 41 17 % SP500 482 77 16 % =================================================== SP-100 96 13 14 % SEMI 130 18 14 % RUS-1000 833 116 14 % DOWJONES 30 4 13 % ELECTRON 178 23 13 % INDEXES 195 24 12 % GAMING 28 3 11 % JETS 9 1 11 % BIOTECH 383 37 10 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % FOOD 15 1 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % INDMATER 89 5 6 % CHEM 62 3 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % RETAIL 53 2 4 % ETFS 67 2 3 % INFRA 35 1 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % CHINA 63 2 3 % REIT 177 3 2 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % --------------------------------------------------- Others: None GREEN AUTO OILGAS COAL GOLD PIPELINE BONDFUND
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/9/18 Bullish = 32 Bearish = 14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 REGBANKS .939 .727 .787 .787 .606 .545 HOSPITAL .875 1 .875 .75 .75 .875 NIFTY .833 .733 .7 .7 .733 .666 SOFTWARE .787 .727 .727 .666 .681 .681JETS .777 .555 .555 .666 .444 .444 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .733 .733 .6 BIGBANKS .714 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 EDU .714 .857 .714 .857 .857 .428 MILITARY .71 .684 .684 .631 .631 .605FINANCE .709 .634 .623 .591 .559 .451 HACKERS .708 .666 .666 .666 .625 .625 NASD-100 .696 .656 .656 .636 .616 .575 COMPUTER .695 .652 .695 .652 .608 .565 INDEXES .661 .574 .574 .589 .512 .456BIOTECH .65 .613 .561 .532 .524 .503 TRANSP .65 .4 .4 .4 .3 .3 INSURANC .625 .531 .5 .468 .437 .281 ELECTRON .617 .578 .544 .516 .46 .477 DJI-13 .615 .384 .461 .384 .461 .307GREEN .612 .548 .516 .483 .387 .451 ETFS .611 .477 .432 .462 .388 .373 SEMI .607 .584 .553 .515 .453 .469 CHINA .587 .476 .46 .507 .444 .412 CHEM .58 .451 .451 .403 .274 .241MORNSTAR .567 .462 .457 .466 .407 .352 SP500 .558 .454 .443 .452 .433 .381 SP-100 .552 .416 .416 .437 .416 .385 RUS-1000 .551 .457 .441 .456 .423 .366 COMODITY .542 .442 .557 .671 .542 .5DOWJONES .533 .4 .366 .366 .4 .333 INDMATER .528 .438 .471 .471 .337 .359 N=32 =========================================================================================== GAMING .5 .5 .5 .464 .321 .285 SOLAR .476 .523 .428 .476 .333 .285 COAL .4 .5 .5 .5 .4 .4 INFRA .371 .228 .285 .342 .228 .257 BEVERAGE .35 .3 .3 .25 .25 .2RETAIL .339 .301 .358 .471 .471 .415 UTILITY .325 .302 .186 .255 .302 .279 AUTO .3 .25 .225 .225 .225 .175 OILGAS .278 .192 .207 .271 .271 .214 GOLD .274 .254 .235 .392 .254 .294REIT .197 .135 .118 .09 .084 .045 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .027 .009 .009 .009 .018 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=14
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3/8/2018 The DJI is at a key inflection point. Stay hedged. Volume was very low on
the most recent rally.
The DJI, the NASDAQ, QQQ and TECL are each at key resistance now. The
markets could swing either way. This is a "high inflection" point. The Buy B5 does
not demand that there be a breakout now. More basing next would be constructive.
A breakout now would likely cause of rush of short-covering. It may prove to
be more than that, but volume remains low and more that 56% of all the 6000 stocks
we follow are BELOW their 65-dma.
DJI 24895 109 points below its key 65-dma.
NASDAQ 7428 79 points below its late January peak at 7507.
QQQ 169.86 1.04 points below its late January peak at 170.90
TECL 141.40 4.56 points below its late January peak at 141.40
What could make the market decide which way it wants to move? Tomorrow
before the opening, the February JOBs' Report comes out. A number above
200,000 but not above 230,000 should be bullish. It would show good economic
growth, but not be so high as to bring higher interest rates until the CPI is shown to
be rising significantly. A number below 150,000 would show a weakening economy.
If the Fed were to raise interest rates with the economy in this situation, it might cause
a recession. So, in my judgment, a number below 140,000 could be dangerous
and the market will sense that. That means that a number between 140,000 and
200,000 should pose no problem for the market.
Since the NYSE A/D Line is up-trending now, I think there is a good
chance that the FED will not be raising rates in March. Therefore, the DJI should
remain well above its lower 3.5% band. Keep in mind that March and April
are usually bullish months. In the past, the next ten days produce a DJI advance only
52.8% the time since 1965. But over the next two months, the DJI rises 62.3% of the
time and gains on average 1.2%. The Buy B5 should be given time.
If there is no breakout, expect the DJI to continue to be weaker than the QQQ.
Stay hedged by holding short some of the Bearish MINCPs. But give QQQ a
little time to breakout even if it holds back here. History (March 2000 and October
2007) shows that the QQQ can top out after the DJI does.
Jobs Reports
from Labor Dept.
each month.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 8 -81 -55 -229 -184 -154 -213 -277 -443 -475 -759 -707 2009 -787 -704 -802 -704 -354 -469 -342 -196 -229 -209 12 -277 2010 18 -73 193 221 522 -140 -78 -16 -63 267 129 73 2011 44 182 254 323 81 234 72 112 233 209 145 201 2012 348 233 264 72 117 68 156 173 194 153 130 243 2013 207 265 156 179 240 158 111 260 201 210 221 93 2014 174 182 261 311 252 306 196 226 284 255 307 251 2015 211 267 78 282 326 191 256 164 88 351 264 234 2016 103 257 235 174 34 285 325 175 264 140 172 180 2017 259 200 73 175 155 239 190 221 14 271 216 160(P) 2018 200(P) P : preliminary https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Charts 3/8/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/8/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/08/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 249.14 1.03 245.35 63.9% ---- ---- .007 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7427.95 31.3 7257.87 169.3% Bullish BLUE .115 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 274.1 1.32 269.08 118.1% Bullish BLUE .014 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 169.86 .93 165.99 160.9% Bullish BLUE .039 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 349.13 -.64 341.78 157.6% Bullish RED .131 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.42 -.32 152.35 210.6% Bullish RED .134 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.87 .6 67.65 352.6% Bullish BLUE .12 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 33.91 -1.8 35.18 -28.1% Bullish RED -.026 -.088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 183.75 .78 169.08 661.8% Bullish RED .128 .269 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 136.86 1.64 128.29 462.6% Bullish BLUE .09 .176 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 112.62 .82 109.65 253.4% Bullish BLUE .163 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.42 -.3 125.39 27.9% Bearish RED .011 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.63 -.16 6.8 -116.8% ---- RED -.004 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.43 .14 24.05 121.8% ---- BLUE -.13 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.73 -.14 W18.13 160% Bearish RED -.079 -.277 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.11 -.7 W30.58 -53.6% Bullish RED .085 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.58 .15 23.51 -6.4% Bearish BLUE .057 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.14 .21 102.07 -15.2% Bearish BLUE -.173 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.26 .36 48.94 19.3% ---- BLUE -.13 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.8 .02 6.78 -131.2% Bullish ---- .234 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 35.58 .42 34.81 140.3% Bearish RED -.049 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.07 .06 W23.25 -17.2% ---- ---- .026 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 176.94 1.91 176.21 55.1% Bullish BLUE .043 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1126 16.36 1078.92 259.4% Bullish BLUE .008 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 94.43 .57 93.05 84.6% Bullish BLUE .089 .097 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1551.86 6.86 1500.25 192.1% Bullish BLUE .143 .321 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 182.34 -1.37 176.62 178.5% ---- RED -.003 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 241.18 -.66 236.54 188.7% ---- RED -.009 .228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.73 1.69 344.67 -13.8% Bullish RED .031 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 266.34 .99 258.12 182.4% Bullish RED .061 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 177.94 -.64 178.46 -47.2% Bearish RED -.089 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 153.59 2.08 146.38 111.6% ---- BLUE -.048 -.021
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories 3/8/2018 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 219 Bullish Preponderance NEWLOWS 34MAXCP 168 Professionals are net sullish more than 3:1 MINCP 51TTTNH 241 Day Traders are very bullish TTTNL 73FASTUP 298 Swing traders are bullish FASTDOWN 59CPCROSSA 40 CPCROSSD 117 Professionals took profits and switch to bearish today.BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 14 Dunping continues.Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180308 No. NHs Pct -------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOSPITAL 8 4 50 % EDU 7 2 29 % HACKERS 24 6 25 % SOFTWARE 66 13 20 % ----------------------------------------------------- GAMING 28 4 14 % NIFTY 30 4 13 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % FOOD 15 2 13 % NASD-100 99 11 11 % SEMI 130 13 10 % COAL 10 1 10 % ELECTRON 178 14 8 % MORNSTAR 238 17 7 % BIOTECH 383 28 7 % INDEXES 195 11 6 % RUS-1000 833 46 6 % FINANCE 93 5 5 % SP500 482 25 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % COMODITY 70 3 4 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % SP-100 96 2 2 % INDMATER 89 2 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % ETFS 67 1 1 % REIT 177 2 1 % ================================================= Others: None
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/8/18 Bearish = 23 Bullish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL 1 .875 .75 .75 .875 .625 EDU .857 .714 .857 .857 .428 .571 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .733 .6 .6 NIFTY .733 .7 .7 .733 .633 .6 REGBANKS .727 .787 .787 .606 .545 .333 SOFTWARE .727 .727 .666 .681 .681 .636 MILITARY .684 .684 .631 .631 .605 .605 HACKERS .666 .666 .666 .625 .625 .583 NASD-100 .656 .656 .636 .616 .606 .505 COMPUTER .652 .695 .652 .608 .565 .478 FINANCE .634 .623 .591 .559 .451 .365 BIOTECH .613 .561 .532 .524 .503 .433 SEMI .584 .553 .515 .453 .469 .353 ELECTRON .578 .544 .516 .46 .477 .376 INDEXES .574 .574 .589 .512 .456 .369 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 .428 JETS .555 .555 .666 .444 .444 .555 GREEN .548 .516 .483 .387 .451 .322 INSURANC .531 .5 .468 .437 .281 .312 SOLAR .523 .428 .476 .333 .285 .238 N=21 =========================================================================================== COAL .5 .5 .5 .4 .4 .4 GAMING .5 .5 .464 .321 .285 .285 =========================================================================================== ETFS .477 .432 .462 .388 .373 .358 CHINA .468 .453 .5 .437 .406 .328 MORNSTAR .462 .457 .466 .407 .361 .294 RUS-1000 .457 .441 .456 .423 .37 .316 SP500 .454 .443 .452 .433 .387 .329 CHEM .451 .451 .403 .274 .241 .193 COMODITY .442 .557 .671 .542 .5 .542 INDMATER .438 .471 .471 .337 .359 .348 SP-100 .416 .416 .437 .416 .385 .343 DOWJONES .4 .366 .366 .4 .333 .333 TRANSP .4 .4 .4 .3 .3 .3 DJI-13 .384 .461 .384 .461 .307 .307 UTILITY .302 .186 .255 .302 .279 .186 RETAIL .301 .358 .471 .471 .415 .377 BEVERAGE .3 .3 .25 .25 .2 .05 GOLD .254 .235 .392 .254 .294 .235 AUTO .25 .225 .225 .225 .175 .2 INFRA .228 .285 .342 .228 .257 .285 OILGAS .192 .207 .271 .271 .221 .207 REIT .135 .118 .09 .084 .045 .039 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .009 .009 .009 .018 .009 .018 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=23
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3/7/2018 We have to like the way the markets closed up off the lows today
after a very weak opening. Professionals were taking away stock from
weak holders at the opening. See how the P-Indicator is now quite
positive as are the AROC of the 21-dma and our Accumulation Index.
This doesn't guarantee against a bear market, but it makes it most
unlikely so long as the A/D Line uptrend is intact.
Today was a good day for the NASDAQ, QQQ and the techs TECL and SOXL.
But the DJI could not make it back into positive territory. It was down
too much before the opening. Talk of tariffs was too much for the
multi-nationals there. Expect the DJIA to be unlikely to match the strength
shown by QQQ and the Techs for some time.
QQQ Is The New Leader if It Breaks Out
QQQ may be able to make a stunning, flat-top breakout into all-time high
territory. That is where the "hot money" will now flow if it does. Note its
positive and improving internals. Of course, its now familiar leaders in Table 4
do show bullish (blue) across-the-board strength: FB, AMZN, GOOG and
MSFT. But there are other QQQ stocks now making confirmed new highs,
notably ADBE and ADSK (+17.83 today). In light of this and also how
strong much of the software sector is now, I believe QQQ should be bought even now
for an impending breakout. But I would still be hedged with some Bearish
MINCP shorts. We don't know what the Jobs Report will show on Friday
and the FED may raise rates this month.
At the same time, I would suggest continue staying hedged by being long some
of the Bullish MAXCPs and short some of Bearish MINCPs. Traders of
DIA will have to be patient. DIA needs to restore our confidence
by getting back above its 65-dma or again successfully testing its
3.5% lower band at 24000.
Meanwhile, watch the broad market. There are still more bearish sectors
than bullish sectors in Table 4. Only 43% of all stocks enjoy the relative
safety of being above their 65-dma.
If interest rates are not raised in March, I look forward to seeing the smaller
stocks, those making up IWM, pick up many more followers. The short-term rates,
however, did make another recovery high today.
QQQ Is The Leader Now
Charts 3/7/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/7/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/07/18Except for DIA, the key general market ETFs now have rising 5-dma and rising Closing Powers (SPY, QQQ, MDY, IWM as well as FAS, SOXL, TECL and IBBETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.11 -.73 245.98 -42.2% Bullish BLUE .097 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7396.65 24.64 7180.56 84.9% Bullish BLUE .108 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 272.78 -.1 267.7 20.9% Bullish BLUE .102 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 168.93 .39 164.48 51.6% Bullish BLUE .113 .07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 349.77 .73 338.26 153.3% Bullish BLUE .27 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.74 1.37 149.95 209.7% Bullish BLUE .212 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.27 .09 66.97 95.3% Bullish BLUE .177 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.71 -1.45 34.11 71.9% Bullish RED .12 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 182.97 1.43 160.77 411.3% Bullish BLUE .202 .265 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 135.22 2.22 124.77 155.9% Bullish BLUE .152 .164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.8 .68 107.04 170.1% Bullish BLUE .214 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.72 -.81 124.72 28.7% Bearish RED -.066 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.79 -.14 &6.79 0% Bullish RED -.019 .081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.29 -.21 23.84 112% Bearish BLUE -.116 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.87 -.55 17.15 326.9% Bearish RED -.036 -.255 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.81 -.15 30.44 -13% Bullish RED .012 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.43 -.02 W23.61 -55.2% Bearish RED .011 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.93 0 W102.45 -11.8% Bearish RED -.243 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.9 -.37 W49.07 -16.2% ---- RED -.099 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.78 -.08 W6.98 80.5% Bullish RED .241 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 35.16 -.23 34.6 48.8% Bullish BLUE -.007 .061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.01 -.13 W23.15 -32.3% Bullish ---- .088 .103 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 175.03 -1.64 175 -87.5% Bullish RED .085 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1109.64 14.58 1069.52 22.6% Bullish BLUE .064 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 93.86 .54 92.85 4.8% Bullish BLUE .174 .096 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1545 7.36 1493.45 107.5% Bullish BLUE .205 .313 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 183.71 3.93 175.94 151.2% Bullish BLUE .078 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 241.84 -.32 232.21 -3.4% Bullish BLUE .059 .233 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 347.04 -1.88 W349.69 -215.7% Bullish BLUE .111 .174 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 265.35 -1.58 256.78 46.3% Bullish BLUE .139 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 178.58 -3.06 W179.64 -102.1% Bearish RED .003 -.052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 151.51 -2.24 150.23 -103.2% Bullish BLUE .027 -.022Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180307 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 288 Bullish Preponderance. NEWLOWS 51MAXCP 286 Professionals are 7x more bullish than bearish. MINCP 41TTTNH 241 Day Traders are quite bullish. This is unusual. TTTNL 55FASTUP 288 Swing-traders are mostly bullish. FASTDOWN 59CPCROSSA 209 Professionals heavily switched to bullish camp. CPCROSSD 39BIGVOLUP 2 BIGVODN 10 Still dumping in some stocks.Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180307 No. NHs Pct -------------------------------------------------------- EDU 7 3 43 % HACKERS 24 9 38 % HOSPITAL 8 3 38 % SOFTWARE 66 20 30 % NIFTY 30 6 20 % COMPUTER 23 4 17 % REGBANKS 33 5 15 % ====================================================== NASD-100 99 13 13 % FINANCE 93 11 12 % SOLAR 20 2 10 % COAL 10 1 10 % BIOTECH 384 35 9 % MORNSTAR 238 20 8 % SEMI 130 11 8 % GAMING 28 2 7 % RUS-1000 834 61 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % INDEXES 195 11 6 % ELECTRON 178 11 6 % SP500 483 30 6 % RETAIL 53 3 6 % CHEM 62 3 5 % SP-100 96 4 4 % INDMATER 89 4 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % AUTO 40 1 3 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % CHINA 64 1 2 % REIT 177 3 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % ======================================================= Others None.Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT. OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/7/18 Bearish = 22 Bullish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .875 .75 .75 .875 .625 .5 REGBANKS .787 .787 .606 .545 .333 .333 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .6 .6 .666 SOFTWARE .727 .666 .681 .681 .651 .681 EDU .714 .857 .857 .428 .571 .571 NIFTY .7 .7 .733 .633 .6 .733 COMPUTER .695 .652 .608 .565 .478 .565 MILITARY .684 .631 .631 .605 .605 .71 HACKERS .666 .666 .625 .625 .583 .625 NASD-100 .656 .636 .616 .606 .505 .616 FINANCE .623 .591 .559 .451 .397 .462 INDEXES .589 .589 .512 .456 .374 .461 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .571 .428 .571 BIOTECH .562 .533 .526 .505 .434 .473 COMODITY .557 .671 .542 .5 .542 .585 JETS .555 .666 .444 .444 .555 .555 SEMI .553 .515 .453 .469 .353 .4 ELECTRON .544 .516 .46 .477 .376 .415 GREEN .516 .483 .387 .451 .322 .354 N=21 ============================================================================================ COAL .5 .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 GAMING .5 .464 .321 .285 .285 .285 INSURANC .5 .468 .437 .281 .281 .437 ============================================================================================ INDMATER .471 .471 .337 .359 .348 .337 DJI-13 .461 .384 .461 .307 .307 .384 MORNSTAR .457 .466 .407 .361 .306 .365 CHINA .453 .5 .437 .406 .343 .421 CHEM .451 .403 .274 .241 .209 .209 SOLAR .45 .5 .35 .3 .25 .3 SP500 .445 .453 .434 .389 .341 .414 RUS-1000 .442 .456 .424 .371 .322 .389 ETFS .432 .462 .388 .373 .373 .402 SP-100 .416 .437 .416 .385 .354 .427 TRANSP .4 .4 .3 .3 .3 .4 DOWJONES .366 .366 .4 .333 .333 .4 RETAIL .358 .471 .471 .415 .377 .415 BEVERAGE .3 .25 .25 .2 .05 .1 INFRA .285 .342 .228 .257 .285 .285 GOLD .235 .392 .254 .294 .235 .215 AUTO .225 .225 .225 .175 .2 .225 OILGAS .207 .271 .271 .221 .214 .185 UTILITY .186 .255 .302 .279 .186 .186 REIT .118 .09 .084 .045 .039 .039 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 BONDFUND .009 .009 .018 .009 .018 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 0 N=22
==============================================================================
3/6/2018 Today's DJI's rally faltered at its 65-dma. There was too much bearish news.
Short-term interest rates reached a recovery new high. North Korea might
reduce tensions enough to allow US military spending to stop its
quick escalation; this would hurt the DJI-30's highest flyer, BA And, Trump
has alienated Gary Cohen, Goldman's and Wall Street's single best hope
for keeping the Trump economic master plan one that Wall Street approves of.
Without Cohen in the Cabinet, the NY Times warns that Trump will now be
surrounded by arch protectionists. That's a lot of bearish news for just one day.
Small wonder that the DJI is down more than 200 over-night.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/06/us/politics/gary-cohn-resigns.html?emc=edit_th_180307&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=582238940307
But breadth has been good. So, I would think the DJI will stay within
the confines of its price triangle and the lower 3.5% band on the DJI will
again bring a reversal back upwards. Stay hedged is my advise, long
some bullish MAXCPs and short some bearish MINCPs. Traders
will need to watch and heed the Hourly DJI's trend-breaks to make
dollars and sense of the DJI's quick fluctuations. As long as QQQ and
the NASDAQ stay above their 65-dma, I think we should look forward
to a DJI new high in April. But clearly, there could be big problems
if the DJI breaks its recent intra-day low. That would likely cause all
the indexes to crumble.
Right now, the DJI needs to stay above its 3.5% lower band, at 24000, for us
to credit the market as still being governed by the Buy B5. Keep the faith,
I suggest. Even a second S9 in here should not bring a big sell-off. It is
rare for the DJI not to hold up until there are more sets of major Sells,
a clear divergence by the A/D line from the DJI and/or, at least, one S12.
We should expect the DJI to be weaker than the Nasdaq and QQQ because
of the dangers of a trade war. We are also seeing the Russell-2000 begin
to outperform the DJI. This sell-off will be a good test of these other indexes
and ETFs.
Charts 3/6/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, MDGL SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/6/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 03/06/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.84 0 W250.2 -102.9% Bearish RED .021 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7372.01 41.31 W7273.01 28.6% Bullish BLUE .033 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 272.88 .69 271.65 -28.6% ---- RED -.009 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 168.54 .71 167.21 7.5% Bullish RED .003 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 349.04 3.67 W339.26 83.7% Bullish BLUE .143 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 155.37 1.66 150.35 86% Bullish BLUE .095 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.18 .8 69.95 -69.1% ---- RED .084 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 37.16 1.38 35.2 326.9% Bullish BLUE .056 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 181.54 7.85 168.92 231.6% Bullish BLUE .108 .209 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 133 .91 131.17 -51.1% Bullish RED .012 .132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 111.12 .26 108.08 46.7% Bullish RED .094 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.53 1.35 125 56% Bearish BLUE -.083 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.93 -.02 6.79 -51% ---- ---- -.063 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.5 .07 23.75 -10.4% Bearish RED -.18 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.42 -.66 16.7 143.3% Bearish RED -.055 -.179 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.96 -.09 30.89 -138.9% Bullish ---- -.043 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.45 -.06 W23.69 -36% Bearish ---- .02 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.93 -.01 W102.17 0% Bearish ---- -.155 -.037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.27 -.67 49.06 -13.2% Bearish RED -.142 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.86 -.03 6.67 258.6% Bullish ---- .248 .148 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 35.39 .7 34.82 -227.4% Bearish RED -.069 .12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.14 -.39 W23.16 -107.1% ---- RED .013 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 176.67 -.15 W178.12 -48.6% Bullish RED .015 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1095.06 4.13 W1104.73 -106.3% Bullish RED -.042 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 93.32 -.32 W93.77 -47.1% Bullish RED .068 .084 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1537.64 14.03 1512.45 85.1% Bullish BLUE .167 .299 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.78 -.62 178.32 -47% Bearish RED -.016 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 242.16 6.51 242 -81.8% Bearish BLUE .02 .223 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.92 -3.83 W362.21 -221.5% Bullish RED .06 .164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 266.93 3.81 262.93 -19.1% Bullish BLUE .085 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 181.64 -.1 W182.27 -92.1% Bearish RED -.047 -.037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 153.75 2.63 W154.63 -245.9% ---- BLUE .007 .001
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180306 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 245 Good ratio. NEWLOWS 45MAXCP 164 Good ratio MINCP 34TTTNH 142 Unusual - Positive TTTNL 69FASTUP 181 Hedge bullish ratio of 2:1 FASTDOWN 93CPCROSSA 74 CPCROSSD 105BIGVOLUP 6 BIGVODN 9Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180306 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 24 6 25 % SOFTWARE 66 13 20 % SOLAR 20 4 20 % NIFTY 29 5 17 % ======================================================= EDU 7 1 14 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % FOOD 15 2 13 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % NASD-100 99 12 12 % FINANCE 93 9 10 % COAL 10 1 10 % REGBANKS 33 3 9 % SEMI 130 12 9 % RUS-1000 835 64 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % GAMING 28 2 7 % ELECTRON 178 12 7 % MORNSTAR 238 16 7 % GREEN 31 2 6 % BIOTECH 384 23 6 % SP500 483 31 6 % CHEM 62 3 5 % INDEXES 195 9 5 % SP-100 96 4 4 % COMODITY 70 3 4 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INDMATER 89 3 3 % CHINA 64 2 3 % REIT 177 3 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % ETFS 67 1 1 % ================================================== Others: NoneTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/6/18 Bearish = 24 Bullish = 19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 EDU .857 .857 .428 .571 .571 .571 REGBANKS .787 .606 .545 .333 .333 .515 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .875 .625 .75 .875 FOOD .733 .733 .6 .6 .733 .733 NIFTY .689 .724 .62 .586 .724 .793 COMODITY .671 .542 .5 .542 .6 .671 HACKERS .666 .625 .625 .583 .625 .625 JETS .666 .444 .444 .555 .555 .666 SOFTWARE .666 .681 .681 .651 .681 .666 COMPUTER .652 .608 .565 .478 .565 .652 NASD-100 .636 .616 .606 .505 .626 .666 MILITARY .631 .631 .605 .605 .71 .71 FINANCE .591 .559 .451 .397 .473 .58 INDEXES .589 .512 .456 .374 .482 .62 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .571 .428 .571 .714 BIOTECH .533 .526 .505 .434 .476 .531 ELECTRON .516 .46 .477 .376 .415 .455 SEMI .515 .453 .469 .353 .4 .423 n=19 ============================================================================================ CHINA .5 .437 .406 .343 .421 .468 COAL .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 SOLAR .5 .35 .3 .25 .3 .35============================================================================================ GREEN .483 .387 .451 .322 .354 .419 INDMATER .471 .337 .359 .348 .337 .46 RETAIL .471 .471 .415 .377 .415 .433 INSURANC .468 .437 .281 .281 .437 .5 MORNSTAR .466 .407 .361 .306 .373 .5 GAMING .464 .321 .285 .285 .357 .357 ETFS .462 .388 .373 .373 .402 .567 RUS-1000 .457 .425 .372 .323 .394 .452 SP500 .453 .434 .389 .341 .42 .488 SP-100 .437 .416 .385 .354 .427 .541 CHEM .403 .274 .241 .209 .209 .306 TRANSP .4 .3 .3 .3 .4 .45 GOLD .392 .254 .294 .235 .215 .254 DJI-13 .384 .461 .307 .307 .384 .615 DOWJONES .366 .4 .333 .333 .4 .533 INFRA .342 .228 .257 .285 .285 .342 OILGAS .271 .271 .221 .214 .185 .307 UTILITY .255 .302 .279 .186 .186 .232 BEVERAGE .25 .25 .2 .05 .1 .2 AUTO .225 .225 .175 .2 .225 .275 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .117 .176 REIT .09 .084 .045 .039 .039 .045 BONDFUND .009 .018 .009 .018 .009 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 0 .142 n=24
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
3/5/2018 Today's rally reinforces the notion that the DJI will likely
next challenge its falling resistance line. That's only about
500 points away. Unless volume picks up a lot, I doubt if there
will be a dramatic upside breakout above the falling Hourly DJI
resistance line. And first, the DJI must move above its 65-day ma, about
200 points above today's close.
The expected narrowing trading range market would seem to be a
perfect environment to be both long some of our bullish MAXCPs
and short some of the bearish MINCPs.
The DJIA could well be held back by "tough talk" from Trump
about more tariffs, as long as Congress chooses not to over-ride him.
Also holding back the market will be the expectation that interest rates
will soon be pegged higher soon by the Fed. That this reality does still
impinge on the market of individual stocks, if not ETFs, see above how only
39% of the 6000 stocks we follow are now above the relative safety
of their 65-dma. Only about 1/3 of all the industrial sectors we follow
are in this condition. (See Table 4).
My longer-term expectation is that there will be a DJI breakout to the
upside in April but it may have to follow the lead of the NASDAQ
and QQQ. Such action would confirm the judgment of those who have
preferred to consider the operative Peerless signal to be a Buy B5.
But in the shorter-term, i.e. in this month, I would expect the DJI
simply to bounce back and forth between the upper 2% and 3.5%
lower bands. In this environment, I would prefer to be long some of
our Bullish MAXCPs and, for hedging purposes, short some of our .
Bearish MINCPs.
Below are 4 "pin-ups" to keep in mind. One of our bullish MAXCPs rose
30% today. One of our bearish MINCPs fell 25% yesterday.
Charts 3/5/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SPPI , WATT, SQ, MDGL
3/5/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS and Key Stocks - 03/05/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.84 3.49 W253.96 -161.3% ---- BLUE -.027 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7330.7 72.83 7330.35 -62.2% Bullish BLUE -.053 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 272.19 3.11 W274.43 -104.9% ---- BLUE -.075 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 167.83 1.84 W168.29 -76.8% Bullish BLUE -.052 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.37 3.59 343.32 -44.3% Bullish BLUE .078 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.71 1.36 152.76 -42.1% Bullish BLUE .03 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.38 2.73 W72.14 -292.6% ---- BLUE .011 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.78 .6 34.87 -196.9% Bullish BLUE -.025 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 173.69 4.61 W173.7 -48.1% Bullish BLUE .021 .183 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 132.09 3.8 W134.33 -233.3% ---- BLUE -.051 .126 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.86 1.21 110.1 -28.8% Bullish BLUE .028 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.18 -.21 125.13 -50.7% Bearish RED -.08 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.95 .15 W7 -152% ---- BLUE -.052 .122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.43 .38 W24.55 -109.4% Bearish BLUE -.216 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 19.08 .95 17.91 16.9% ---- BLUE -.071 -.098 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.05 .47 W31.82 -176.4% Bullish BLUE -.023 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.51 0 W23.62 8.5% Bearish ---- -.044 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.94 -.13 101.93 -15.2% Bearish RED -.133 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.94 1 49.4 -26.4% Bullish BLUE -.147 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.89 .11 6.51 314.3% Bullish ---- .203 .16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.69 -.12 W36.99 -1010.5% ---- BLUE -.098 .093 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.53 .28 W23.64 -165.9% ---- BLUE -.004 .125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 176.82 .61 W178.39 -60.6% Bullish BLUE -.052 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1090.93 12.01 W1118.29 -239.4% ---- BLUE -.08 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 93.64 .59 W94.2 -94.8% Bullish BLUE .032 .085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1523.61 23.36 1511.98 5.5% Bullish BLUE .101 .277 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 180.4 3.78 W181.46 -126.2% ---- BLUE -.043 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 235.65 -.89 W246.06 -227.1% Bearish BLUE -.02 .196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 352.75 8.08 W364.64 -150.3% Bullish BLUE .035 .181 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 263.12 5 W267.93 -154.5% ---- BLUE -.003 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 181.74 3.28 W184.98 -183.8% Bearish BLUE -.091 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 151.12 4.74 W161.26 -404.9% Bearish BLUE -.032 -.004
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180305 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 24 5 21 % NIFTY 30 6 20 % SOFTWARE 66 12 18 % ------------------------------------------------------------------- FOOD 15 2 13 % COAL 10 1 10 % GAMING 28 2 7 % BIOTECH 385 27 7 % NASD-100 99 6 6 % COMODITY 70 4 6 % FINANCE 93 5 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % SP500 483 20 4 % RUS-1000 834 33 4 % RETAIL 53 2 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INDMATER 89 3 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % SP-100 96 2 2 % INDEXES 195 3 2 % ELECTRON 178 3 2 % MORNSTAR 238 5 2 % SEMI 130 3 2 % REIT 176 3 2 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % =============================================== Others: None
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/5/18 Bearish = 30 Bullish = 15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 EDU .857 .428 .571 .571 .571 .571 HOSPITAL .75 .875 .625 .75 .875 .75 FOOD .733 .6 .6 .733 .733 .733 NIFTY .733 .633 .6 .733 .8 .866 SOFTWARE .681 .681 .651 .681 .681 .696 MILITARY .631 .605 .605 .71 .71 .789 HACKERS .625 .625 .583 .625 .625 .625 NASD-100 .616 .606 .505 .626 .666 .707 COMPUTER .608 .565 .478 .565 .652 .739 REGBANKS .606 .545 .333 .333 .515 .666 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .428 .571 .714 .714 FINANCE .559 .451 .397 .473 .58 .666 COMODITY .542 .5 .542 .6 .671 .714 BIOTECH .524 .503 .433 .475 .532 .558 INDEXES .517 .456 .374 .482 .62 .738 N=16 ============================================================================================= RETAIL .471 .415 .377 .415 .433 .584 DJI-13 .461 .307 .307 .384 .615 .692 ELECTRON .46 .477 .376 .415 .449 .494 SEMI .453 .469 .353 .4 .415 .484 JETS .444 .444 .555 .555 .666 .666 CHINA .437 .406 .343 .421 .468 .656 INSURANC .437 .281 .281 .437 .5 .5 SP500 .434 .389 .341 .42 .488 .561 RUS-1000 .424 .371 .322 .393 .454 .525 SP-100 .416 .385 .354 .427 .541 .635 MORNSTAR .407 .361 .306 .373 .5 .63 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 DOWJONES .4 .333 .333 .4 .533 .633 ETFS .388 .373 .373 .402 .567 .776 GREEN .387 .451 .322 .354 .419 .58 INDMATER .337 .359 .348 .337 .46 .606 SOLAR .333 .285 .238 .285 .333 .428 GAMING .321 .285 .285 .357 .357 .535 TRANSP .3 .3 .3 .4 .45 .65 UTILITY .285 .261 .166 .166 .214 .19 CHEM .274 .241 .209 .209 .306 .387 OILGAS .271 .221 .214 .185 .314 .364 GOLD .254 .294 .235 .215 .254 .352 BEVERAGE .25 .2 .05 .1 .2 .25 INFRA .228 .257 .285 .285 .342 .428 AUTO .225 .175 .2 .225 .275 .375 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .117 .176 .176 REIT .079 .039 .034 .034 .039 .068 BONDFUND .018 .009 .018 .009 .009 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 0 .142 .142 N=30
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
3/2/2018 If we think the operative Peerless signal is the Buy B5 of two weeks
ago, then we should expect the DJI NOT to break below the lower 3.5%
band which is at about 24140, some 400 points below Friday's close.
This is because the Peerless signals are designed not to have a bigger
loss than this. This might be called the orthodox Peerless approach.
When you look at three of the most important leveraged short ETFs below,
we do see that a near-term recovery in the market does seem likely.
Watch these three charts. But note, too, that they also still show rising 5-dma.
So, the market's decline is probably not over.
We Need More Evidence of A Bottom.
Besides just the automatic signals, I think we also have to keep looking at the
real-time evidence, too.
The DJI's rally to 25709.27 on 2/26 meant a close at the 2% upper band with
a very negative P-I reading (-112), a still declining AROC (annualized
rate of change of the 65-dma of -.322 plus an IP21 of only +.004.
When the DJI makes such a weak rally after previously falling 10% from its
peak on a Sell S9, we should probably also expect another re-test of the previous
lows. The breaking of the Hourly DJI's uptrend-line when the OBV-DISI line
showed serious weakness and suggested a decline to the previous lows
We must also add into this bearish mix that the bull market is almost 9 years
old and therefore ripe for a big decline. So, we cannot afford to be dogmatic
or stubborn about the Buy B5 still operating. And what if all the bearish
leveraged ETFs are employed aggressively as OEX puts were in October
1987?
But even when we consider a second Sell S9 to have been rendered on 2/26
that still only makes two S9s and it usually takes 4 or more for a rally big
decline. So, I don't think the DJI will break to new lows. The divergences
are not big enough for a decline of much more than 10% down from the
first peak.
It remains my opinion, too, that Wall Street and the Administration realize that
they have too much at stake to allow a big decline to start now. So, somehow,
they will prevent it. But we may still need a new Buy signal, I think. We
cannot be sure the lower 3.5% band will hold. Of course, short-term traders
can watch the Hourly DJI's current price down-trend-line and seek to call
a bottom before we get a Peerless Buy.
One more item. On the day of the near S9, the 21-day ma was falling at
an annualized rate of -.322. We don't usually pay much attention to this.
But this key value does show unusual weakness with the DJI at the 2%
upper band. What is interesting here is that in only one of the 10 earlier
near S9 cases with the 21-dma AROC below -.25 (when the DJI closed at
the 2% band with a negative P-I and an IP21 below .01) was the DJI still
in a bull market. That was in May 1987. (You can see the list of 10 past
occurrences here.) In this case, the DJI did reverse at the lower 3.5% band.
19870506 2342.19 1.021 -.329 -184.7 -.08
DJI declined directly to lower 3.5% band.
Adding this signal here would have not changed results.
1987 Chart: At lower band, there was a perfect B17.
The P-I was improving and the 65-dma was still rising.
Will The NASDAQ Hold Up?
The DJI-30, with all its multi-nationals, will be hurt the most in a trade
war where other countries post tariffs on American products. Watch to see if
NASDAQ can stay bullishly above its rising 65-dma. I'm not convinced that
the NASDAQ will continue to escape the bearish consequences of Trump's
first steps towards a trade war. Software and Biotech would seem to be
the safest sectors in a trade war. Boeing, however, may be in trouble. What
if China or Europe places 25% tariff on Boeing's jets?
Charts 3/2/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/2/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS and Leading Stocks - 03/02/18
Only 2 of the items below are above their 5-day ma.
Only 5 show positive IP21s.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 245.35 -.63 W256.92 -150% Bearish BLUE -.04 --- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7257.87 77.31 W7421.46 -54.4% ---- BLUE -.102 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 269.08 1.38 W277.9 -103% Bearish BLUE -.104 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 165.99 1.51 W170.4 -65% ---- BLUE -.09 .056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.78 3.52 W348.4 -67.3% ---- BLUE .069 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.35 2.4 W154.99 -53.5% ---- BLUE .031 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.65 .68 W74.49 -305.9% Bearish BLUE .01 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.18 1.07 W37.17 -216.2% ---- BLUE -.055 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 169.08 8.31 W175.32 126% Bullish BLUE -.011 .162 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 128.29 3.52 W138.22 -138.5% ---- BLUE -.077 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.65 2.61 W111.49 -47% ---- BLUE -.024 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.39 .67 W126.45 -29.9% Bearish RED -.028 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.8 .01 W7.16 -208.2% ---- BLUE -.051 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.05 .21 W24.96 -178.2% Bearish BLUE -.201 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.13 .98 W19.02 -131.5% Bearish BLUE -.106 -.125 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.58 .14 W32.15 -213.1% ---- BLUE -.007 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.51 -.1 23.47 2.1% Bearish ---- -.061 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.07 -.38 W102.25 -2.9% Bearish RED -.202 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.94 -.13 W50.2 -142.1% Bearish RED -.211 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.78 -.2 6.47 341.3% Bullish RED .176 .159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.81 .21 W42.1 -765.4% Bearish BLUE -.145 .091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.25 .1 W24.31 -108% ---- BLUE -.024 .112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 176.21 1.21 W178.97 20% Bullish BLUE -.058 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1078.92 9.4 W1143.75 -215.1% Bearish BLUE -.079 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 93.05 .2 W95.42 -53.7% Bullish BLUE -.007 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1500.25 6.8 W1521.95 .8% ---- BLUE .015 .27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 176.62 .68 W184.93 -184.5% Bearish BLUE -.022 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 236.54 4.33 W246.58 -193.6% Bearish BLUE -.056 .205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 344.67 -5.02 W363.48 -166.8% ---- BLUE -.009 .174 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 258.12 1.34 W271.26 -163.1% Bearish BLUE .015 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 178.46 -1.18 W188.46 -267.7% Bearish BLUE -.129 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 146.38 -3.85 W163.69 -505.9% Bearish RED -.074 -.013
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/2/18Bearish = 33 Bullish = 12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .875 .625 .75 .875 .75 .75 SOFTWARE .681 .651 .681 .681 .696 .712 HACKERS .625 .583 .625 .625 .625 .666 NIFTY .62 .586 .724 .793 .862 .793 NASD-100 .606 .505 .626 .666 .717 .666 MILITARY .605 .605 .71 .71 .789 .71 FOOD .6 .6 .733 .733 .733 .8 BIGBANKS .571 .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 COMPUTER .565 .478 .565 .652 .739 .695 REGBANKS .545 .333 .333 .515 .666 .636 BIOTECH .503 .433 .475 .532 .555 .527 N = 12 ========================================================================================== COMODITY .5 .542 .6 .671 .714 .728 ========================================================================================== ELECTRON .477 .376 .415 .449 .494 .426 SEMI .469 .353 .4 .415 .484 .392 INDEXES .456 .374 .482 .62 .738 .687 FINANCE .451 .397 .473 .58 .666 .612 GREEN .451 .322 .354 .419 .58 .548 JETS .444 .555 .555 .666 .777 .666 EDU .428 .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 RETAIL .415 .377 .415 .433 .584 .528 CHINA .406 .343 .421 .468 .656 .64 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 SP500 .389 .341 .42 .488 .565 .532 SP-100 .385 .354 .427 .541 .635 .562 ETFS .373 .373 .402 .567 .776 .686 RUS-1000 .372 .323 .394 .455 .525 .492 MORNSTAR .361 .306 .373 .5 .634 .584 INDMATER .359 .348 .337 .46 .606 .528 DOWJONES .333 .333 .4 .533 .633 .5 DJI-13 .307 .307 .384 .615 .692 .538 TRANSP .3 .3 .4 .45 .7 .55 GOLD .294 .235 .215 .254 .352 .333 GAMING .285 .285 .357 .357 .535 .392 SOLAR .285 .238 .285 .333 .428 .333 INSURANC .281 .281 .437 .5 .5 .5 UTILITY .279 .186 .186 .232 .209 .186 INFRA .257 .285 .285 .342 .428 .4 CHEM .241 .209 .209 .306 .387 .387 OILGAS .221 .214 .185 .314 .371 .364 BEVERAGE .2 .05 .1 .2 .25 .25 AUTO .175 .2 .225 .275 .375 .35 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .117 .176 .176 .176 REIT .034 .028 .028 .034 .062 .062 BONDFUND .009 .018 .009 .009 .018 .009 PIPELINE 0 0 0 .142 .142 .142
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
3/1/2018 We came so close to an S9/S12 at the top of this advance, I
think we should create a new category of signal, called a near S9-S12.
It should take into account the narrower trading since 1945. Below
are the results of having a Sell signal when the DJI closes at the 2%-2.4%
band with negative PI and negative or almost negative IP21.
Near S9-S12 with DJI 2%-2.4% above 21-dma
Work in Progress - Will be finished this weekend.
There can be an intervening small rally, but a decline to at least
the 3% lower band occurs 80%+ of time.
1 19470505 174.2 1.02 -94 -.177 DJI declined directly to lower band. A signal here would have closed out a previous Buy19 with a 2.8% gain and produced a 6.1% gain on the hypothetical new short sale. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 19561211 490.4 1.022 -52.2 -.065 DJI declined directly below lower band. Bottom was 9% from peak. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 19601014 596.5 1.02 -77.1 -.078 DJI declined directly to lower 3% band. Bottom was 5% from peak. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 19620709 580.8 1.023 -347.8 -.065 DJI rose from 580.8 to 615.5 on 8/22 before falling to 558 on 10/23. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 19661018 791.87 1.021 -135.2 -.103 DJI rose from 791.87 to 820.54 on 12/22 before falling to LB, 786.35 on 12/29 Adding this signal here would have meant prematurely selling as there was a better Sell S9/S12 on 10.25 at 793.09. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 19671128 884.88 1.02 -88 -.078 DJI rose from 884.88 to 908.92 on 1/8/68 before falling to 825.13 on 3/21/68 Adding this signal here would have meant prematurely selling as there was a much better Sell S12 on 1/8 at 908.92. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 19700604 706.53 1.023 -164.1 -.006 DJI rose from 706.53 to 735.56 on 7/29 and then fell to LB, 669.36 on 7/7. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 19700715 711.66 1.022 -86.5 -.016 DJI rose from 711.66 to 735.56 and then fell to LB, 707.35 on 8/13. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 19701109 779.5 1.02 -128.3 -.188 DJI rose fell from 779.5 to 755.82, just below rising 65-dma and then rose sharply. This would have added a 2.3% gain since there was a Buy B11 signal on 11/13 @759.79 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 19710818 886.17 1.022 -131.7 -.199 DJI rose from 886.17 to 916.47 on 9/6 and fell far below lower band to 797.97 Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 19720522 965.31 1.023 -89 -.031 DJI fell directly to lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 19720803 947.7 1.021 -81.1 -.057 DJI fell directly to lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 19730111 1051.7 1.023 -95.6 .001 Severe bear market followed. Also S9-S12 Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 19740509 865.77 1.02 -137.4 -.061 Fell far below lower band. Already a bear market. This would have added an additional +6.2% gain. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 19740606 845.35 1.023 -116.3 -.065 Fell far below lower band. Already a bear market. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 19740614 843.09 1.02 -63.4 -.047 Fell far below lower band. Already a bear market. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 19750905 835.97 1.021 -64 -.038 Fell directly to lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 19780714 839.83 1.02 -141.6 -.028 DJI continued higher, reaching 890-900 in Sept-Oct. Adding this signal here would have produced a sizeable loss. There was a Buy B4 on 8/3 @886.87 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 19781009 893.19 1.02 -120.1 -.154 Sharp sell-off followed immediately. Adding this signal here would have not changed results much. One day earlier Sell. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 19801112 964.93 1.021 -109.6 -.169 Small additional rally and then decline slightly below lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results much. One day earlier Sell. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 19801231 963.99 1.02 -79.6 -.027 Small additional rally and then decline to lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 19870506 2342.19 1.021 -184.7 -.08 DJI declined directly to lower band. Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 19891003 2754.56 1.022 -66.5 -.018 DJI declined 8% in a week. Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 19901105 2502.23 1.02 -86.5 .007 DJI rallied from 2503.23 to 2633.66 on 12/21 and then fell to 2470.3 on 1/9/91 Adding this signal here would have produced a 3.6% loss because of B13 on 12/17/90. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 19941019 3936.04 1.02 -113.6 -.009 DJI declined directly 6.5%, from 3674.63 to 2502.23, LB, on 11/23 Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 19990407 10085.3 1.021 -116.4 -.012 DJI rallied 10%. This occurs in bullish seasonal period of year before Election. Adding this signal here would have produced a 5.6% loss after B9 on 5/24/99. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 19991210 11224.7 1.02 -390.1 .009 DJI rallied from 11224.7 to 11497.12 on 12/31 and then fell to 10997.93 on 1/4/2000 Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 19991223 11405.76 1.023 -305.6 -.053 DJI rallied from 11405.76 to 11497.12 on 12/31 and then fell to 10997.93 on 1/4/2000 Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 19991231 11497.12 1.021 -129.2 -.068 DJI fell directly to 10997.93 on 1/4/2000 Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 20051107 10586.23 1.022 -70.8 .01 DJI rallied from 10586.23 to 11043.44 on 1/11/06 before falling back only to 10667.39 on 1/20. There was a Buy B4 on 11/21 at 10820.28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 20060703 11228.02 1.022 -128.7 -.077 DJI fell directly to 10739.35 on 7/14/2006 This would have added an additional +3.8% gain. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 20071205 13445.04 1.021 -192.9 -.082 DJI rallied from 13445.04 on 12/10 and then began deep bear market Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 20071213 13517.96 1.02 -76.2 -.051 DJI began deep bear market Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 20080722 11602.5 1.02 -352.9 -.01 DJI rallied from 11602.5 to 11782.35 on 8/11 and then began deep bear market. Adding this signal here would only have meant selling one day earlier. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 35 20081105 9139.27 1.02 -136.8 -.051 DJI fell directly to 7552.29 on 11/20. Adding this signal here would have not changed results. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 20111205 12097.83 1.022 -61.5 -.007 DJI rose bullishly with only brief decline to 21-dma Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 20111220 12103.58 1.021 -75.4 -.087 DJI rose bullishly Adding this signal here would have not changed results --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 20180226 25709.27 1.02 -112 .004 This would have added an additional +4.6% gain assuming closed out on Friday's close.
The Bull Market Is Stealing Way.
I've suggested taking profits in QQQ, TECL and SOXL and shorting some
of our bearish MINCPs. I also said I expected the DJI to drop to
test its recent lows between 23500 and 24500. But I did not suggest
shorting any of the major market ETFs. I was too loyal to the Buy B5
and reluctant to over-rule it after just a rally to the 2.0% upper band.
But in retrospect, we should have recognized how vulnerable the market
and the DJI were by the depth of the previous decline and the failure
of the DJI to get past its 2% upper band coupled with the negative internals
at the upper band.
Word apparently must have gotten out from the inner sanctuary of the White
House about Trump's intent "to do" tariffs early this week, unless one
thinks he just conjured up this idea very suddenly on Twitter. The NY Times
seems to suggest that. But someone knew more than a week ago. Look
at the jump in high (red) volume in US Steel's stock more than a week ago.
This was what was really causing so much distribution at the upper 2% band
and explains why the DJI could not go higher.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/business/trump-tariffs.html?emc=edit_th_180302&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=582238940302
.
Trump has been mostly true to his campaign promises. So, the
market should not be so surprised that he will be putting tariffs on imported
steel and aluminum. But Wall Street likes free trade and strongly dislikes
the uncertainties of possible trade wars. Everyone who went to high school
in the US in the last 50 years has been taught about the 1930 Smoot Hawley
Tariff, which Hoover opposed by the way, and how it, as much as the DJI Crash
in 1929 caused the Great Depression. So, we are all conditioned to view Trump's
decision today as knee-jerk bearish. All this weekend, the pundits will be
voicing this fear. So I still expect the DJI to have to test 24000. If it can build
a little base there, we should see another rally. After all, it almost always takes
several sets of Peerless Sells in the last 6-8 months to bring a major decline.
A big and un-discussed problem the bulls will have now is if the
how leveraged Short ETFs on the general market are eminently
marginable and could huge investor interest if key support levels
like 24000 are violated on the DJI. See in our BIGSHORT chart
below the negative ETFs on the general market with with the the
heaviest trading volume, excluding VIX. Volume is not yet as high
as it was the first week of February. But we will be watching the
Tiger Index of these 15 bearish ETFs. So far, they seem to be mostly
used to hedge portfolios. But the danger is that they will be used
aggressively and thereby allow the bears to use all the leverage the
market has afforded bulls in this long bull market on the downside.
This could be dangerous.
Perhaps, the wags will be talking about how "the "DOG wags the DJI."
Actually, the most active are the shorts on the SP-500, SPXU, the QQQ,
SQQQ and the Russell-2000, TZA.
Next week, we will start providing more each night on the internals of these
15 bearish hedges on the general market and provide a nightly ranking
of them using QuickSilver.
See how much volume these bearish ETFs on the major market are
already attracting.
DOG 31668
DXD 67661
FAZ 49792
QID 116918
RWM 10124
SDOW 118291
SDS 145459
SH 81301
SPXU 309431 most active
SQQQ 291936 second most active
SRTY 11884
TECS 17061
TZA 191849 third most active
YANG 50696
popularity of the Leveraged Negative ETFS.
Charts 3/1/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
3/1/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 3/1/18 Bearish = 34 3x more than the bullish number here. Bullish = 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 SOFTWARE .651 .681 .681 .696 .712 .696 HOSPITAL .625 .75 .875 .75 .75 .875 MILITARY .605 .71 .71 .789 .736 .631 FOOD .6 .733 .733 .733 .8 .8 NIFTY .586 .724 .793 .862 .793 .689 HACKERS .583 .625 .625 .625 .666 .625 EDU .571 .571 .571 .571 .571 .428 JETS .555 .555 .666 .777 .666 .555 COMODITY .542 .6 .671 .714 .728 .671 NASD-100 .505 .626 .666 .717 .676 .575 N = 11 =========================================================================================== COMPUTER .478 .565 .652 .739 .695 .478 BIOTECH .433 .475 .532 .555 .535 .472 BIGBANKS .428 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 FINANCE .397 .473 .58 .666 .612 .537 INDEXES .389 .482 .62 .738 .692 .512 RETAIL .377 .415 .433 .584 .547 .471 ELECTRON .376 .415 .449 .494 .426 .359 ETFS .373 .402 .567 .776 .686 .597 SP-100 .354 .427 .541 .635 .583 .416 SEMI .353 .4 .415 .484 .392 .346 INDMATER .348 .337 .46 .606 .528 .494 CHINA .343 .421 .468 .656 .64 .609 SP500 .341 .42 .488 .565 .54 .434 DOWJONES .333 .4 .533 .633 .533 .433 REGBANKS .333 .333 .515 .666 .636 .515 RUS-1000 .323 .394 .455 .525 .499 .413 GREEN .322 .354 .419 .58 .548 .354 DJI-13 .307 .384 .615 .692 .538 .538 MORNSTAR .306 .373 .5 .634 .588 .441 TRANSP .3 .4 .45 .7 .55 .4 GAMING .285 .357 .357 .535 .428 .357 INFRA .285 .285 .342 .428 .4 .428 INSURANC .281 .437 .5 .5 .5 .375 SOLAR .238 .285 .333 .428 .333 .333 GOLD .235 .215 .254 .352 .333 .294 OILGAS .214 .185 .314 .371 .371 .307 CHEM .209 .209 .306 .387 .37 .306 AUTO .2 .225 .275 .375 .35 .225 UTILITY .186 .186 .232 .209 .186 .162 HOMEBLDG .117 .117 .176 .176 .176 .176 BEVERAGE .05 .1 .2 .25 .3 .3 REIT .028 .028 .034 .062 .062 .022 BONDFUND .018 .009 .009 .018 .009 .018 PIPELINE 0 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 Bearish = 35
==============================================================================
2/28/2018 All The Leveraged Negative ETFS May Be Allowed To
Run Wild again. Hedging with some Bearish MINCPs
and not holding QQQ, TECL or SOXL long was suggested
last night if the Hourly DJI uptrend was broken. That
happened today and the DJI closed dangerously at its
lows of the day. What will Fed Chairman say today?
The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5 but
another test of the recent lows seems likely unless Fed Chairman
reverses himself tomorrow and does not insist on 4 rate hikes
being needed over the next 10 months. He testifies before the
Senate tomorrow. We will know what he's saying quickly enough
because if the DJI resumes its 670 point two-day sell off, it will break below
its rising 65-dma, just a few points below today's close.
Given the weak technicals we see now, I would expect the DJI then to
quickly break below its 65-dma and for the DJI to have to retest 24000.
This is because there are a multitude of leveraged bearish ETFs and
Index options and Futures which are ready-made to bring another
rapid sell-off from aggressive Professionals and those who simply want to hedge
because the bull market is now almost nine years old and it's doubtful that
the Trump Administration has any more tricks up its sleeve to boost stock
prices, especially now with interest rates rising and a big Federal deficit
likely.
Still, there is still a chance that Peerless will be proven correct here
and we will see another DJIA rally to the 2.4% upper band where
we may see a reversing Sell. But the broad market is in trouble.
The P-Indicator, Accumulation Index and V-Indicator are all quite
negative. The short-term A/D Line uptrend has been broken.
Only 34% of all stocks and ETFs are still above their 65-dma and only 13
of the 46 Industry groups we follow still have the majority of their
stocks above the 65-dma. In addition, new 52-week new lows outnumbered
new highs by a whopping 188 to 54. The plurality of MINCPs is even greater.
I have to add that none of the bullish MAXCP looks good enough to buy.
What's worse? Now we see the Hourly DJI's OBV-DISI Line making a new
low ahead of the DJI and today the Hourly DJI has broken its well-tested rising
uptrend. In many ways, the Hourly DJI's internal OBV weakness is
starting to look like it did in August and December 2015 when Janet Yellen
scared the market with talk of three and then four rate hikes over the
following year. Interestingly, in these cases, the DJI could also not close
as high as the 2.4% upper band, but Peerless still gave Sell signals based
on heavy red Distribution and because these signals were not taking place
in the more bullish beginning of the year.
It cannot be good that the internals yesterday were much worse than in these
three recent cases where hawkish talk from the normally dovish Yellen
spooked the market. The main difference now is the more bullish seasonality
that March and April regularly bring. Since 1965, the DJI rallied on average
+1.5% over the next two weeks and declined only 36.5% of the time. Over
the next two months, the average DJI gain was +2.2% and the DJI only fell
32.7% of the time.
The bullish seasonality should save the DJI even if the broader market
suffers is my conclusion. But a re-testing of 24000 should not come as
a surprise. We can also hope that Fed Chairman Powell has done enough
"hawkish" jaw-boning for the time being and he now will be more discreet
before the Senate tomorrow. But we can't be sure about him. The market
does not yet trust him. He is new to the job and Wall Street may have to
try to train him with another decline. So, I would prefer to hold few NASDAQ
stocks (if their Closing Power uptrends are broken) and would prefer to be "
short some of the many Bearish MINCPs. Hold DIA only if you an
intermediate-term investor and are prepared to ride out another sell-off
like we saw two weeks ago. I would avoid the tech ETFs. They closed
at their upper-bands with negative IP21 readings.
la/ma AROC P-I P-ch IP21 V-I DJI Declined from
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S12 5/19/2015 1.013 .183 +13 -90 -.008 -48 18312 to 15666 on 8/25
S12 7/16/2015 1.014 .144 +79 18 -.193 -129 18120 to 15666 on 8/25
S16 12/29/2015 1.009 -.053 -67 40 -.100 -147 17720 to 15660 on 2/11
Compare with Tuesday's key values this week
----- 2/27/2018 1.010 -.57 -202 -91 -.059 -136 25410.03
Charts 2/28/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
2/28/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/28/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 250.2 -3.76 249.49 49.2% Bearish RED -.071 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7273.01 -57.34 7210.09 37.5% Bearish RED -.138 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 271.65 -2.78 270.4 29.3% Bearish RED -.14 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 167.21 -1.08 164.8 71.4% Bearish RED -.095 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 339.26 -4.06 342.23 -49.6% Bearish RED .022 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 150.35 -2.41 W152 -61.7% Bearish RED -.048 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.95 -2.19 68.88 24.5% Bearish RED -.01 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.2 .33 35.13 -23.7% Bearish RED -.165 .064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 168.92 -4.78 154.78 393.5% ---- RED -.072 .264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 131.17 -3.16 124.33 274.6% ---- RED -.086 .15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.08 -2.02 W108.42 -45.5% Bearish RED -.113 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125 -.13 W126.3 -26.2% Bearish RED -.052 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.79 -.21 W6.95 42.9% Bearish RED -.089 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.75 -.8 W24.32 -4.1% Bearish RED -.186 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 16.7 -1.21 W17.17 -75.3% Bearish RED -.168 -.219 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.89 -.93 W31.43 -18.9% ---- RED -.151 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.69 .07 23.45 34% Bullish ---- -.007 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.17 .24 101.74 28% Bearish BLUE -.23 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.06 -.34 W49.07 24.2% Bearish RED -.135 -.132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.67 .16 6.34 313.3% Bullish BLUE .092 .112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.82 -2.17 W38.54 -559.6% Bearish RED -.16 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.16 -.48 W23.74 -14.7% Bearish RED -.068 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 178.12 -.27 172.5 201.1% Bullish RED -.048 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1104.73 -13.56 W1106.63 -29.5% ---- RED -.089 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 93.77 -.43 91.73 122.1% Bullish RED -.005 .088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1512.45 .47 1485.34 98.4% Bearish RED -.033 .269 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.32 -3.14 W178.99 11.3% Bearish RED -.025 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 242 -4.06 W242.15 10% Bearish RED -.093 .279 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 362.21 -2.43 355.92 137.2% Bullish RED -.052 .214 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 262.93 -5 261.43 -8.8% Bearish RED .005 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 182.27 -2.71 W185.47 -21.2% Bearish RED -.117 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 154.63 -6.63 W158.86 -18.7% Bearish RED .021 .038Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Directories Date = 180228 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 53 A small sector remains bullish. NEWLOWS 188 More extreme weakness is a bad sign. -------------------------------------- MAXCP 27 MINCP 431 Professional selling dominates ------------------------------------------------ TTTNH 50 TTTNL 303 Day Traders are "fading" most stocks. --------------------------------------------------- FASTUP 95 FASTDOWN 172 Swing Traders are mostly bearish ----------------------------------------------------------- CPCROSSA 28 CPCROSSD 439 Professional bearishness is dominant. ----------------------------------------------------------- BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 18 Big money Dumping is growing. ===========================================================Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180228 No NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 24 3 13 % COAL 10 1 10 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % CHEM 62 2 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INDMATER 89 3 3 % SOFTWARE 66 2 3 % BIOTECH 385 12 3 % ELECTRON 178 3 2 % SEMI 130 2 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % SP-100 96 1 1 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % SP500 483 3 1 % RUS-1000 835 7 1 % NASD-100 99 1 1 % --------------------------------------------------- All others None.
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/28/18 Bearish = 33 3 of 4 sectors are now below the key 65-dma Bullish = 13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .875 .75 .75 .875 .75 FOOD .733 .733 .733 .8 .8 .8 NIFTY .733 .8 .866 .8 .7 .666 MILITARY .71 .71 .789 .736 .631 .657 SOFTWARE .681 .681 .696 .712 .696 .651 NASD-100 .626 .666 .717 .676 .575 .575 HACKERS .625 .625 .625 .666 .625 .583 COMODITY .6 .671 .714 .728 .671 .657 BIGBANKS .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 EDU .571 .571 .571 .571 .428 .285 COMPUTER .565 .652 .739 .695 .521 .565 JETS .555 .666 .777 .666 .555 .444 N= 13 ============================================================================================ INDEXES .482 .62 .738 .692 .528 .533 BIOTECH .475 .532 .555 .535 .472 .501 FINANCE .473 .58 .666 .612 .537 .58 INSURANC .437 .5 .5 .5 .375 .437 SP-100 .427 .541 .635 .583 .427 .427 CHINA .421 .468 .656 .64 .609 .578 SP500 .42 .488 .565 .54 .438 .445 ELECTRON .415 .449 .494 .426 .359 .393 RETAIL .415 .433 .584 .547 .471 .452 ETFS .402 .567 .776 .686 .597 .552 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 DOWJONES .4 .533 .633 .533 .433 .4 SEMI .4 .415 .484 .392 .346 .376 TRANSP .4 .45 .7 .55 .4 .3 RUS-1000 .394 .455 .525 .499 .417 .428 DJI-13 .384 .615 .692 .538 .538 .461 MORNSTAR .373 .5 .634 .588 .453 .466 GAMING .357 .357 .535 .428 .357 .357 GREEN .354 .419 .58 .548 .354 .483 INDMATER .337 .46 .606 .528 .494 .471 REGBANKS .333 .515 .666 .636 .515 .606 INFRA .285 .342 .428 .4 .428 .428 SOLAR .285 .333 .428 .333 .333 .428 AUTO .225 .275 .375 .35 .225 .225 GOLD .215 .254 .352 .333 .294 .333 CHEM .209 .306 .387 .37 .306 .225 UTILITY .186 .232 .209 .186 .162 .162 OILGAS .185 .314 .371 .371 .314 .257 HOMEBLDG .117 .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 BEVERAGE .1 .2 .25 .3 .3 .3 REIT .034 .034 .062 .062 .022 .022 BONDFUND .009 .009 .018 .009 .018 .009 PIPELINE 0 .142 .142 .142 .142 0 N = 33
==============================================================================
2/27/2018 Do Some Selling in Techs and Some Shorting from among
our Bearish MINCPs. Expect a re-test of the recent lows
if the Hourly DJI breaks its steep uptrend-line.
The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5 but yesterday
we almost (<100 points away) got a Sell S9 and today produced a dramatic
299 point reversal down after yesterday's 400 point rise. This reversal
is the subject of tonight's historical study. See Table A. From it, we get
a sense that the odds are about 50% that the DJI will need now to fall
back to the lower 3.5%.
But most of these cases occurred in deep bear markets. So, I would stick
with the Buy B5 and consider today to be Wall Street's warning to the new
Fed Governor that he should be very careful what he says about future interest
rate hikes. He is supposed to speak on Thursday to the Senate. He may face
a more difficult audience there.
Today's sell-off began when Fed Chairman Powell told Congress that the US
economy is strong enough to endure four rate hikes this year, rather than the
three that the Fed had previously planned. If the market can be hit this hard with
such "jaw-boning", what will it do when rates are actually raised? Or is this
just posturing by a new Fed Chairman who wants to show he's a "tough guy"?
I'm inclined to favor the second interpretation. That makes me think the
DJI will move up closer again to the 2.4% upper band and we will get a normal
Sell signal when the DJI is ready to decline again. That view is colored by
my political sense that the Administration and the Federal Reserve do not
want to risk a big decline now. But do some profit-taking now, especially in
some of the leading tech stocks, TECL, SOXL and QQQ. See how they have
each reached their upper bands with the IP21s clearly negative.
Technically, we do see lots of negative key values from Peerless. Monday's
advance was not confirmed by the P-Indicator or the Accumulation Index. This
will pose a problem, I suspect, for all but the strongest of the high-priced DJI-30
stocks. The Utilities and Bonds were again very weak. I have to add that it
was weak Utilities which led the DJI down in September 1929. Surely, the FED
knows enough to not punch up rates too fast, now.
Expect a re-test of the recent lows if the Hourly DJI breaks its steep uptrend-line.
The Bearish MINCPs look awful. They invite some hedging.
Two Day Reversals
It is quite rare for the DJI to reverse like we saw today. This occurred most
frequently in Great Depression years. But taking all 20 cases where it occurred
and the DJI was between the 0.7% and 3.5% upper band, 50% of them saw the
DJI fall directly to the lower band. Only in 4 instances did the DJI advance so
much as to make a short sale a likely failure. In 6 or 7 cases, the DJI rose for
a while longer before declining.
Only in one instance did such a reversal take place in February. That was in 1935
and the DJI quickly declined below the lower band. The conclusion I reach from
the study in Table A is that we do not have enough evidence that the reversal
we saw today should reverse the current Buy B5. But traders should watch the
Hourly DJI's uptrend-line. A break in it will tilt the scales in favor of a re-test of the
recent lows. Add some more Bearish MINCPs to the shorts we are using for
hedging.
The Hourly DISI-OBV is much weaker than
the DJI's Price Action. There is too much selling
of dividend stocks and ETFs on the NYSE to present
a prettier picture. This reinforces the notion that
we should be sellers on strength near the 2.4% upper
band or on a break by the hourly DJI below its
uptrend-line.
Charts 2/27/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ TOWN
2/27/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table A 2-Day Reversal Day Down
1929-2018
Conditions:
DJI is 0.7% above the 21-dma and below its 3.5% band.
DJI down more than 1.1% on the current day
DJI was up more than 1.5% on the previous day.
------------------------------------------------------------
20 cases:
10 instances where DJI fell directly to or below the lower band.
7-6 instances where DJI initially rose and then fell profitably at least to lower band.
3-4 instances where shorting the DJI here would have produced a loss.
1) 7/24/1930 DJI rose from 235.5 to 241.8 on 7/28/1930,
then fell to 217.2 on 8/12/1930
---------------------------------------------------------
2) 8/17/1931 DJI fell from 140.9 to 86.5 on 10/5/1931
---------------------------------------------------------
3) 12/15/1932 DJI fell from 61.2 to 56.6 on 12/22/1932
---------------------------------------------------------
4) 3/29/1933 DJI ran up sharply after FDR's Bank Holiday.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5) 6/19/1934 DJI fell from 99.0 to 85.5 on 7/26/1934.
-----------------------------------------------------------
6) 2/19/1935 DJI fell from 105.9 to 96.7 on 3/14/1935
-----------------------------------------------------------
7) 1/21/1938 DJI fell from 130.7 to 118.5 on 2/3/1938.
-----------------------------------------------------------
8) 5/10/1938 DJI fell from 117.9 to 107.9 on 5/27/1938.
-----------------------------------------------------------
9) 6/13/1940 DJI ran up sharply.
-----------------------------------------------------------
10) 7/3/1941 DJI rose from 124.0 to 129.6 on 7/22 and
then fell to 106.6 on 12/22/1941.
-----------------------------------------------------------
11) 7/7/1955 DJI rose from 460.2 to 468.4 on 7/26 and
then fell to 448.8 on 8/19/1955
-----------------------------------------------------------
12) 10/29/1975 DJI rose from 838.63 to 855.24 on 10/29 and
then fell to 818.8 on 12/5/1979.
-----------------------------------------------------------
13) 11/10/1982 DJI fell from 1044.52 to 990.89 on 11/23/1982.
-----------------------------------------------------------
14) 12/17/1988 DJI rose from 1924.4 to 2031.5 on 1/5/1992 and
then fell to 1879.14 on 1/5/1993.
-------------------------------------------------------------
15) 9/15/1992 DJI fell from 3327.32 to 3136.58 on 10/9/1992.
-------------------------------------------------------------
16) 9/24/1998 DJI fell from 8001.99 to 7784.69 on 10/2/1998.
--------------------------------------------------------------
17) 5/4/1999 DJI rose from 10886.10 to 11107.19 on 5/13/1999 and
then fell to 10490.51 on 6/11/1999.
--------------------------------------------------------------
18) 10/16/2002 DJI rose from 8036.03 to 8931.68 on 11/27/2002 and
then fell 8303.78 on 12/27/2002. Big Paper Loss!
---------------------------------------------------------------
19) 11/15/2008 DJI fell from 9139.27 to 7552.29 on 11/20/2008
---------------------------------------------------------------
20) 5/1/2009 DJI rose - but was at higher on its next decline to LB.
===============================================================================Table 1 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/27/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 253.96 -2.96 247.72 91.7% ---- RED -.067 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7330.35 -91.11 7218.23 65.9% ---- RED -.112 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 274.43 -3.47 270.05 55.5% ---- RED -.132 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 168.29 -2.11 164.82 90% ---- RED -.075 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 343.32 -5.08 342.68 -1.3% ---- RED .021 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.76 -2.23 152.24 22.2% ---- RED -.028 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72.14 -2.35 69.6 114.6% ---- RED -.024 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 34.87 -2.3 W35.37 -48.7% Bearish RED -.136 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 173.7 -1.62 155.94 378.3% Bullish RED -.023 .285 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 134.33 -3.89 124 297.2% ---- RED -.069 .161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.1 -1.39 109.08 38.7% Bearish RED -.084 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.13 -1.32 W125.66 -44% Bearish RED -.035 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7 -.16 6.73 136.7% ---- RED -.038 .13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.55 -.41 23.77 67.5% Bearish RED -.178 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.91 -1.11 16.97 -174.4% Bearish RED -.15 -.196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.82 -.33 31.01 136.5% Bullish RED -.134 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.62 .15 23.53 38.3% ---- BLUE -.042 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.93 -.32 101.6 1.5% Bearish RED -.237 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.4 -.8 48.82 -7.1% Bearish RED -.138 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.51 .04 6.27 149.7% Bullish ---- .116 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 36.99 -5.11 W39.24 -78.2% Bearish RED -.146 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.64 -.67 23.23 116.4% ---- RED -.065 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 178.39 -.58 171.07 188% Bullish RED -.033 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1118.29 -25.46 1111.34 70.8% Bullish RED -.068 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 94.2 -1.22 91.49 79.5% Bullish RED -.003 .073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1511.98 -9.97 1482.92 146.2% ---- RED -.001 .268 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 181.46 -3.47 177.91 151.2% Bearish RED -.022 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 246.06 -.52 241.51 -61.6% Bearish BLUE -.046 .291 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 364.64 1.16 352.37 158.4% Bullish RED -.028 .218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 267.93 -3.33 263.4 57.2% Bullish RED .062 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 184.98 -3.48 183.06 -46.4% Bearish RED -.094 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 161.26 -2.43 155.23 179.1% Bullish RED .064 .054
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180227 No NHs ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 1 17 % HACKERS 24 4 17 % ------------------------------------------------------------------- COAL 10 1 10 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % SOFTWARE 66 3 5 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % NIFTY 29 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % SP-100 96 1 1 % INDMATER 89 1 1 % INDEXES 195 1 1 % ELECTRON 178 1 1 % MORNSTAR 238 2 1 % SEMI 130 1 1 % BIOTECH 385 5 1 % SP500 484 6 1 % RUS-1000 836 12 1 % ------------------------------------------------ Others have none.Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/27/18 Bearish = 23 Bullish = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 .833 HOSPITAL .875 .75 .75 .875 .75 .75 NIFTY .793 .862 .793 .689 .62 .655 FOOD .733 .733 .8 .8 .8 .8 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 MILITARY .71 .789 .736 .631 .657 .684 SOFTWARE .681 .696 .712 .696 .636 .712 COMODITY .671 .714 .728 .671 .657 .657 JETS .666 .777 .666 .555 .444 .444 NASD-100 .666 .717 .676 .575 .565 .595 COMPUTER .652 .739 .695 .521 .565 .478 HACKERS .625 .625 .666 .625 .583 .583 INDEXES .62 .738 .692 .528 .548 .6 DJI-13 .615 .692 .538 .538 .461 .461 FINANCE .58 .666 .612 .537 .58 .569 EDU .571 .571 .571 .428 .285 .142 ETFS .567 .776 .686 .597 .567 .597 SP-100 .541 .635 .583 .427 .427 .458 DOWJONES .533 .633 .533 .433 .4 .4 BIOTECH .532 .555 .535 .472 .498 .488 REGBANKS .515 .666 .636 .515 .606 .545 N = 21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INSURANC .5 .5 .5 .375 .468 .437 MORNSTAR .5 .634 .588 .453 .478 .491 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SP500 .487 .564 .539 .438 .446 .456 CHINA .468 .656 .64 .609 .578 .515 INDMATER .46 .606 .528 .494 .471 .471 RUS-1000 .454 .525 .498 .417 .434 .449 TRANSP .45 .7 .55 .4 .3 .35 ELECTRON .449 .494 .426 .359 .382 .404 RETAIL .433 .584 .547 .471 .471 .509 GREEN .419 .58 .548 .354 .516 .387 SEMI .415 .484 .392 .346 .361 .392 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 GAMING .357 .535 .428 .357 .392 .428 INFRA .342 .428 .4 .428 .428 .457 SOLAR .333 .428 .333 .333 .428 .428 OILGAS .314 .371 .371 .314 .25 .278 CHEM .306 .387 .37 .306 .225 .225 AUTO .275 .375 .35 .225 .225 .25 GOLD .254 .352 .333 .294 .333 .392 UTILITY .232 .209 .186 .162 .162 .162 BEVERAGE .2 .25 .3 .3 .3 .3 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 PIPELINE .142 .142 .142 .142 0 .285 REIT .033 .062 .062 .022 .022 .05 BONDFUND .009 .018 .009 .018 .009 .009 N = 23
==============================================================================
2/23/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5. Semi-conductors
were the stars of the day along with the high priced-DJI 13. The 978 more up
than down on the NYSE was acceptable, but not exactly the glorious equal
of the DJI's near-400 point advance.
The DJI needs to digest the day's big advance and let the broad market
catch up if we are to see the rally continue This is because the DJI closed
at the 2% upper band with the P-Indicator still negative at -112 and the IP21
Indicator only barely positive at +.004.
If the DJI had risen just 100 points higher at the close, today would
have brought a Sell S9. And if it were to close 100 points higher tomorrow
and show the same breadth and up and down volume we saw today, we
will get a Sell S9. But let's not anticipate this.
When we run today's key values over past data looking for similar near
S9s in February and March, we find 4 earlier instances of such near S9s
much like today's. In two cases, Peerless was already on a Sell S9 and the DJI had
clearly stopped at the upper band with the A/D Line lagging. These
brought quick declines of 10% and 15%.
In the second two cases, however, there was no Sell S9. Breadth continued
to improve, the A/D Line rose and the DJI advanced for two more months.
However, at that point trouble began. The next automatic Peerless Sell in
these cases, brought significant tops. The DJI then declined 26% in 1946
and 20% in 1982.
As an additional warning, I should add that in the 1937 case, the FED chose
to tighten rates and margin requirements, apparently fearing another 1929 bubble
because of the big DJI gains in 1935 and 1936. The result was that stock prices
were crushed by 46% in what was called the Roosevelt Bear Market which
started at the peak on August 13, 1937 with another Sell S9.
Cases of Near S9s in February and March since 1929
--- DJI closes 2.0% to 2.35% above 21-dma
--- P-I is negative.
--- IP21 is slightly positive
Date DJI la/ma P-I IP21
---------------------------------------------------
1 19350221 104.9 1.021 -45.5 .022
--------------------------------------------------------
2 19370309 193.3 1.021 -35.4 .026
--------------------------------------------------------
3 19460320 195.5 1.02 -5.6 .01
There was no S9 or any other Sell until the important top on 5/29/1946
--------------------------------------------------------
4 19810226 966.81 1.023 -25.1 .009
There was no S9 or any other Sell until the important top on 4/27/1981
Jerome Powell, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, makes his first appearance before Congress tomorrow. He appears in the morning before the House and on Thursday he will talk to Senators. We will be paying close attention to what he says about the pace of coming interest rate rises. The market rallied into his speech. So, it expects him to speak about the economy's strength and not to interject any surprises. But we can be sure that he will be asked hypotheticals about what he will do if the Bond Market, the Dollar or stock market starts falling rapidly. More tomorrow night...
Charts 2/26/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ MDGL TOWN
2/26/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180226 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 222 Bullish, but not at the 10:1 we see in strong bull markets. NEWLOWS 32MAXCP 143 MINCP 78 Professionals still short many stocks despite rally.TTTNH 138 Day Traders are still bullish. This is a good sign. TTTNL 90FASTUP 135 FASTDOWN 101 Swing Traders are not covering shorts.CPCROSSA 35 Professionals bought agressively a limited number of stocks. CPCROSSD 77BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 9 Big money Dumping continues.Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 20180226 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 3 50 % JETS 9 2 22 % SOFTWARE 66 14 21 % DOWJONES 30 6 20 % NIFTY 30 5 17 % HACKERS 24 4 17 % MILITARY 38 6 16 % NASD-100 100 15 15 % =================================================================== BIGBANKS 7 1 14 % SP-100 96 13 14 % COMPUTER 23 3 13 % SP500 485 52 11 % SOLAR 21 2 10 % COAL 10 1 10 % REGBANKS 33 3 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % RUS-1000 837 65 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % GAMING 28 2 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % CHEM 62 4 6 % FINANCE 93 6 6 % INDMATER 90 5 6 % INDEXES 195 12 6 % MORNSTAR 238 15 6 % AUTO 40 2 5 % ELECTRON 178 9 5 % BIOTECH 385 19 5 % CHINA 64 3 5 % SEMI 130 5 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % ETFS 67 2 3 % INFRA 35 1 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % OILGAS 139 1 1 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % --------------------------------------------- Others none
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/26/18 Bearish = 15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 .833 1 NIFTY .866 .8 .7 .633 .666 .666 MILITARY .789 .736 .631 .657 .71 .736 JETS .777 .666 .555 .444 .444 .444 ETFS .776 .686 .597 .567 .611 .731 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .875 .75 .75 .75 COMPUTER .739 .695 .521 .565 .478 .521 FOOD .733 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 INDEXES .733 .692 .528 .548 .62 .707 NASD-100 .72 .68 .58 .57 .6 .64 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 COMODITY .714 .728 .671 .657 .657 .628 TRANSP .7 .55 .4 .3 .35 .5 SOFTWARE .696 .712 .696 .636 .727 .712 DJI-13 .692 .538 .538 .461 .461 .538 FINANCE .666 .612 .537 .58 .569 .655 REGBANKS .666 .636 .515 .606 .545 .666 CHINA .656 .64 .609 .578 .515 .609 SP-100 .635 .583 .427 .427 .468 .51 MORNSTAR .634 .588 .453 .478 .508 .588 DOWJONES .633 .533 .433 .4 .4 .5 HACKERS .625 .666 .625 .583 .625 .583 INDMATER .611 .533 .5 .477 .477 .533 RETAIL .584 .547 .471 .471 .528 .66 GREEN .58 .548 .354 .516 .451 .419 EDU .571 .571 .428 .285 .142 .571 SP500 .564 .54 .439 .447 .468 .519 BIOTECH .555 .535 .472 .498 .49 .535 GAMING .535 .428 .357 .392 .428 .392 RUS-1000 .525 .499 .418 .434 .455 .488 N= 30 ============================================================================================ INSURANC .5 .5 .375 .468 .437 .5 ============================================================================================ ELECTRON .494 .426 .359 .382 .404 .37 SEMI .484 .392 .346 .361 .392 .338 INFRA .428 .4 .428 .428 .457 .457 SOLAR .428 .333 .333 .428 .428 .285 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 CHEM .387 .37 .306 .225 .241 .274 AUTO .375 .35 .225 .225 .25 .325 OILGAS .374 .374 .316 .251 .28 .302 GOLD .352 .333 .294 .333 .392 .509 BEVERAGE .25 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 UTILITY .209 .186 .162 .162 .162 .209 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 PIPELINE .142 .142 .142 0 .285 .142 REIT .062 .062 .022 .022 .05 .05 BONDFUND .018 .009 .018 .009 .009 .027 N = 15
==============================================================================
2/23/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5 and predicts
new highs by the DJI. This will not be easy as the 30 DJIA stocks have
dispersed in all kinds of different technical directions. In addition, the P-Indicator
and our IP21 will also need to turn positive if the DJI does quickly to advance to the
3.5% band. That could be a problem if the DJI gets too far ahead of the rest of
market.
But, at this point, examination of the high-priced DJI stocks like AAPL and BA shows
that they are poised for breakouts to new highs, and JPM and UNH have bullish Closing
Powers which are already at new highs. So, a nominal DJI new high may be achieved
sooner than most people think possible.
An Hourly DJI run above 25500 will establish an upside-target
that is 1500 points higher. This is the height of the inverted
traders' index from its low point up to its neckline. 26900 would
represent then a nominal new closing high near the upper 3.5% band.
Which Stocks Will Lift The DJI To A New High?
I would not expect much help from old Blue, IBM, the big pharmaceuticals,
JNJ and MRK, or the defensives, KO or PG. Puny and underweighted GE looks
like a "lost soul", if stocks are so endowed. Certainly, more bad news on GE will
dampen the speculative animal spirits, but as a stock well below 15, it has almost
no weight in the DJI. GE is about 1/60th of its total. Don't be surprised id
GE is replaced by AMZN or GOOG in the DJI-30.
But there are other stocks in the DJI-30 can do the job of lifting the DJI to new highs.
More than countering this weakness in the 7 stock just mentioned, there are the 8
high AI/200 stocks. These are mostly the higher priced DJI-30 stocks, too:
BA (AI/200=149, 356.66), MMM (AI/200=149, 237.02), UNH (AI/200=146, 230.16),
AAPL (AI/200=156, 175.5, CAT (AI/200=158, 162.41), V (AI/200=149, 122.93),
MSFT (AI/200=169, 94.06).
These 7 stocks constitute 36.3% of the DJI's total weight. Because of their high A/I scores,
I think we can expect them hold well above their recent lows. Some should soon make
new highs. And that will surely help the DJI go significantly higher. In particular, I would
watch BA and AAPL. It would not take much of an advance for them to make new highs.
As high priced DJI-30 stocks, such moves up will send the DJIA up a lot.
Watch JPM and UNH, too. Both show Closing Powers which are very strong now
and making new highs. I believe that means JPM should make a new high to match its
Closing Power new high. If JPM does so, I would expect its bullish action to boost
GS (Goldman Sachs), the second highest priced stock in the DJI.
The other stock in the DJI now whose Closing Power is making new highs is UNH,
which bullishly poised just above its rising 65-fma. UNH is the fourth highest priced
DJI stocks and thus also the fourth most heavily weighted.
The other symbol to watch is SOXL (Semi-conductors). If it can rise now, it will
destroy its potential head and shoulder pattern. This will breathe new life into
the technology stocks, as well as QQQ and TECL. Almost certainly, the NASDAQ
will then jump to new highs.
The most bullish combination of relative strength, Professional buying
and Accumulation is shown by CAT (AI/200=158). MSFT has the highest AI/200
now.
Charts 2/23/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ MDGL TOWN
2/23/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsIP21 is positive only for MDY, IWM, FAS, WEAT, MSFT, AMZN, FB, GS and CAT . ITRS shows greatest relative strength to be: SOXL (+17.5%), TECL (+13.6%), OIL (10.2%), YINN (+22.5%), AMZN (+24.6%), NVDA (+22.8%), BA(+22.4) GASL shows weakest relative strength (-21.2%) UUP(-7.6%)is second weakest. FAS, MSFT and CAT show bullish across-the-board strength.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 252.91 3.42 251.96 8.2% ---- BLUE -.027 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7337.39 127.3 7239.47 56% Bullish BLUE -.078 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 274.71 4.31 273.11 30.9% ---- BLUE -.095 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 168.17 3.37 164.96 74.8% ---- BLUE -.06 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 346.4 4.17 345.82 18.8% ---- BLUE .038 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.98 1.98 153.34 38.7% ---- BLUE .003 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 72 3.12 71.46 54.7% ---- BLUE .01 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 36.72 1.59 37.66 -133.9% ---- BLUE -.076 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 164.83 10.05 153.46 307.7% ---- BLUE -.016 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 131.95 7.62 125.89 209.9% ---- BLUE -.05 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.68 2.26 110.36 -3.7% ---- BLUE -.04 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.14 -.16 127.96 -88.3% Bearish BLUE -.08 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.09 .14 6.8 234.9% ---- BLUE -.055 .102 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.92 .6 24.38 148.9% Bearish BLUE -.176 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.6 1.43 18.39 -19.5% Bearish BLUE -.159 -.212 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.92 .49 30.97 188.6% Bullish BLUE -.167 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.45 -.08 23.13 47.2% ---- ---- .039 -.076 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.13 .39 102.01 17.7% Bearish BLUE -.174 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 50.35 1.28 50.12 67.8% Bullish BLUE -.02 -.14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.33 -.01 6.43 -110% ---- RED .054 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 40.6 2.06 40.02 80.6% Bearish BLUE -.095 .225 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.76 .02 22.99 83.7% ---- ---- -.082 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 175.5 3 172.43 72.9% Bullish BLUE -.041 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1126.79 20.16 1094.8 169.3% Bullish BLUE -.014 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 94.06 2.33 92 76% Bullish BLUE .017 .068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1500 14.66 1448.69 130.1% Bearish BLUE .048 .247 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 183.29 4.3 177.36 93.5% Bullish BLUE .019 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 245.93 3.78 243.84 -11.7% Bearish BLUE -.026 .228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 356.66 .74 355.04 2.8% Bullish RED -.006 .224 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 266.77 5.34 267.62 -17.2% Bullish BLUE .117 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 188.35 2.88 186.97 83% Bearish BLUE -.021 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 162.41 3.55 156.29 77.3% ---- BLUE .094 .094Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180223 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 188 Bullish plurality NEWLOWS 36 MAXCP 102 MINCP 73 Professionals are hedging... TTTNH 103 Day Traders are net bullish. This is important. TTTNL 78 FASTUP 126 Swing traders are hedging. FASTDOWN 133 CPCROSSA 75 Disappointing plurality. CPCROSSD 48 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 8 Still more dumping...Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 20180223 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 24 5 21 % SOFTWARE 66 14 21 % BIGMIL 6 1 17 % =================================================================== BIGBANKS 7 1 14 % EDU 7 1 14 % NIFTY 30 4 13 % MILITARY 38 4 11 % JETS 9 1 11 % COMPUTER 23 2 9 % NASD-100 100 8 8 % RETAIL 53 4 8 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % SP500 485 29 6 % AUTO 40 2 5 % FINANCE 93 5 5 % SP-100 96 5 5 % RUS-1000 837 44 5 % CHINA 64 3 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % UTILITY 43 2 5 % GAMING 28 1 4 % BIOTECH 385 17 4 % CHEM 62 2 3 % DOWJONES 30 1 3 % INDMATER 90 3 3 % ELECTRON 178 6 3 % MORNSTAR 238 8 3 % INFRA 35 1 3 % INDEXES 194 2 1 % SEMI 130 1 1 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % ================================================= Others NoneTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/23/18 Bullish = 28 Bearish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 .833 1 1 FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 NIFTY .8 .7 .633 .666 .666 .633 HOSPITAL .75 .875 .75 .75 .75 .75 MILITARY .736 .631 .657 .71 .763 .763 COMODITY .728 .671 .657 .657 .628 .671 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 SOFTWARE .712 .696 .636 .727 .712 .727 COMPUTER .695 .521 .565 .478 .521 .565 INDEXES .69 .53 .551 .623 .711 .747 ETFS .686 .597 .567 .611 .731 .761 NASD-100 .68 .58 .57 .6 .64 .64 HACKERS .666 .625 .583 .625 .583 .583 JETS .666 .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 CHINA .64 .609 .578 .515 .625 .625 REGBANKS .636 .515 .606 .545 .666 .606 FINANCE .612 .537 .58 .569 .655 .645 MORNSTAR .588 .453 .478 .508 .592 .596 SP-100 .583 .427 .427 .468 .52 .52 EDU .571 .428 .285 .142 .571 .571 TRANSP .55 .4 .3 .35 .5 .5 GREEN .548 .354 .516 .451 .419 .419 RETAIL .547 .471 .471 .528 .66 .679 SP500 .54 .439 .447 .468 .521 .513 DJI-13 .538 .538 .461 .461 .538 .538 BIOTECH .535 .472 .498 .49 .535 .524 DOWJONES .533 .433 .4 .4 .5 .466 INDMATER .533 .5 .477 .477 .533 .522 N=28 =========================================================================================== INSURANC .5 .375 .468 .437 .5 .468 =========================================================================================== RUS-1000 .499 .418 .434 .455 .492 .491 GAMING .428 .357 .392 .428 .392 .464 ELECTRON .426 .359 .382 .404 .376 .393 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 INFRA .4 .428 .428 .457 .457 .485 SEMI .392 .346 .361 .392 .346 .369 OILGAS .371 .314 .25 .278 .3 .328 CHEM .37 .306 .225 .241 .274 .258 AUTO .35 .225 .225 .25 .325 .35 GOLD .333 .294 .333 .392 .529 .647 SOLAR .333 .333 .428 .428 .285 .285 BEVERAGE .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .35 UTILITY .186 .162 .162 .162 .209 .162 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .176 .176 .235 PIPELINE .142 .142 0 .285 .285 .428 REIT .062 .022 .022 .05 .05 .039 BONDFUND .009 .018 .009 .009 .027 0 N = 17
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/22/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5. History favors the
current decline remaining limited. The DJIA, QQQ, Big Military (especially Boeing) and
our Nifty-30 are the leaders. Boeing which is now given a weight equal to 9.8% of the
entire DJIA is up more than 22% than the DJI itself in the last 50 trading days. Another
way of saying this is that the DJI without Boeing would be 500 points lower since 50 trading
days ago or 1227 points lower since mid-May last year.
The four stocks in the DJIA over $200/share, BA, GS, MMM and UNH comprise
29.5% of the DJIA's total weight. As long as these stocks hold up, the DJI will not sell
off much. Since Professionals know that the DJIA is usually among the very last groups
of stocks to top out in a bull market, these are the stocks bullish Professionals will keep
pouring new money into.
It is important to understand that Peerless predicts these leaders and the DJIA, not the
broader market. At some point in most past bull markets, the A/D Line, the Russell-2000
and even SPY do start lagging the DJI significantly. We could be entering this stage soon.
A wide divergence between the DJI on its next new high and the lagging NYSE A/D line
would show this... As Goldman analysts have recently pointed out, just about all the bullish
governmental policy choices have already been made unless we count what will likely be a
diminutive Public Works program this Summer, just in time to impact the Fall Election.
If the Hourly DJI can break above its current downtrend (shown just below), expect the
DJI to attempt another advance and challenge the neckline resistance at 25800. It will mean
that word has gotten out to those most connected with the FED, that Chairman Powell
will coo "dovishly" in his maiden pronouncements before Congress next Tuesday and
Wednesday. But if NYSE Up Volume does not pick up noticeably, most likely the
market's advance will probably be narrow and may not much lift the non-leading ETFs.
So far, bond traders have heard nothing to reduce their rush to sell dividend-paying municipals,
REITS, Utilities and junk bonds. If you are short some of these, and I have been saying "Sell"
on these for three months, cover if their Closing Power downtrends are violated. It will mean
Chairman Power may be backing away from a March increase in short-term rates. His "dovish"
comments could launch the DJI and the whole market into another bullish leg up. That
is what happened in 1927 and set off the huge bubble in stocks in 1928 and 1929. The Fed
then lost control of the speculative boom, which stopped only when they raised the Discount
Rate to 6% in late September 1929, despite a then weakening economy. The FED is in a
very tricky spot now. If they raise rates, they could cause a slow-down in the Economy
just about when voters go to the poll in November. If they do not raise rates and actually
lower them instead, they could set off a wild stock-buying binge which they would no longer
be able to limit, short of disastrous increases. Either way, the FED could lose control. That
would make for a wild ride. Be prepared for it.
If Hourly DJIA can move past downtrend, it will likely allow the leaders
to move ahead. Of all these leaders, Boeing is the most important.
DJI's Buy B5 tells us the DJI's rally will continue.
Charts 2/22/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ MDGL TOWN
2/22/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsMost ETFs now are below their 5-day ma pivot points ("W") and many more show Bearish Closing Powers. It will be interesting how these ETFs behave on Friday, as Mondays have recently been down-days. Much depends on what Fed Chairman Power is expected to say before the House of Representatives.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 249.49 1.77 W252.5 3.8% Bearish BLUE -.045 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7210.09 -8.14 W7256.43 46% ---- RED -.109 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 270.4 .35 W273.03 14.9% Bearish RED -.125 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 164.8 -.02 W165.7 64.4% ---- RED -.113 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 342.23 -.45 W345.11 12.4% ---- RED .01 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152 -.24 W152.8 27.9% ---- RED -.039 -.02 --------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ FAS 68.88 -.72 W71.23 -56.7% Bearish RED -.003 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.13 -.24 W37.69 -187.7% ---- RED -.104 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 154.78 -1.16 W155.22 164% ---- RED -.075 .133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 124.33 .33 W126.68 172.9% ---- RED -.111 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 108.42 -.66 W110.76 -59.6% Bearish RED -.076 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.3 .64 W128.38 -75.8% Bearish BLUE -.074 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.95 .22 6.77 222.2% Bullish BLUE -.017 .108 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.32 .55 24.2 -4.1% Bearish BLUE -.212 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.17 .2 W18.67 -389.4% Bearish RED -.226 -.227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.43 .42 30.75 160.6% Bullish BLUE -.082 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.45 -.08 23.13 47.2% ---- ---- .039 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.74 .14 W101.77 0% Bearish ---- -.194 -.063 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.07 .25 W49.68 47.6% ---- BLUE -.077 -.146 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.34 .07 W6.47 -39.2% Bullish ---- .099 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 38.54 -.7 W39.97 196% Bearish RED -.129 .201 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.74 .51 23.37 144.7% ---- BLUE -.064 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 172.5 1.43 W172.99 149.9% ---- BLUE -.093 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1106.63 -4.71 1089.52 168.9% ---- RED -.06 .043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 91.73 .24 W92.66 50% ---- RED -.045 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1485.34 2.42 1461.76 117.2% Bearish RED .008 .254 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 178.99 1.08 W179.96 -14.9% Bearish BLUE -.051 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 242.15 .64 W246.5 14.9% Bearish RED -.064 .24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 355.92 3.55 W356.46 157.1% Bullish BLUE -.037 .221 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 261.43 -1.97 W267.68 -21.7% Bullish RED .136 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 185.47 2.41 185.27 21% Bearish BLUE -.043 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 158.86 3.63 W159.98 25.5% ---- BLUE .031 .08
Table 2 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180222 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- EDU 7 2 29 % ------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPUTER 23 2 9 % HACKERS 24 2 8 % SOFTWARE 66 3 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % AUTO 40 1 3 % NIFTY 30 1 3 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % ELECTRON 178 6 3 % BIOTECH 385 13 3 % NASD-100 100 3 3 % SEMI 130 3 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % SP-100 96 1 1 % INDMATER 90 1 1 % INDEXES 194 1 1 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % SP500 485 4 1 % RUS-1000 837 10 1 % Others: None
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/22/18Bearish = 27 Bullish = 18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 .833 1 1 .833 HOSPITAL .875 .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .666 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 NIFTY .7 .633 .666 .666 .633 .4 SOFTWARE .696 .636 .727 .712 .727 .651 COMODITY .671 .657 .657 .628 .671 .657 MILITARY .631 .657 .71 .763 .763 .605 HACKERS .625 .583 .625 .583 .583 .583 CHINA .609 .578 .515 .625 .625 .468 ETFS .597 .567 .611 .731 .761 .582 NASD-100 .58 .57 .6 .64 .64 .49 JETS .555 .444 .444 .444 .444 .333 DJI-13 .538 .461 .461 .538 .538 .384 FINANCE .537 .58 .569 .655 .645 .602 COMPUTER .521 .565 .478 .521 .565 .347 INDEXES .52 .551 .623 .711 .752 .613 REGBANKS .515 .606 .545 .666 .606 .575 N=18 ============================================================================================ INDMATER .5 .477 .477 .533 .522 .522 ============================================================================================ BIOTECH .472 .498 .49 .535 .524 .496 RETAIL .471 .471 .528 .66 .679 .641 MORNSTAR .453 .478 .508 .592 .596 .504 SP500 .439 .447 .468 .521 .513 .461 DOWJONES .433 .4 .4 .5 .466 .4 EDU .428 .285 .142 .571 .571 .285 INFRA .428 .428 .457 .457 .485 .428 SP-100 .427 .427 .468 .52 .52 .447 RUS-1000 .418 .434 .455 .492 .491 .436 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .5 TRANSP .4 .3 .35 .5 .5 .4 INSURANC .375 .468 .437 .5 .468 .437 ELECTRON .359 .382 .404 .376 .393 .308 GAMING .357 .392 .428 .392 .464 .392 GREEN .354 .516 .451 .419 .419 .354 SEMI .346 .361 .392 .346 .369 .307 SOLAR .333 .428 .428 .285 .285 .19 OILGAS .314 .25 .278 .3 .321 .364 CHEM .306 .225 .241 .274 .258 .258 BEVERAGE .3 .3 .3 .4 .35 .25 GOLD .294 .333 .392 .529 .647 .686 AUTO .225 .225 .25 .325 .35 .325 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .176 .235 .235 UTILITY .162 .162 .162 .209 .162 .186 PIPELINE .142 0 .285 .285 .428 .428 REIT .022 .022 .05 .05 .039 .033 BONDFUND .018 .009 .009 .027 0 .018 Bearish N = 27
==============================================================================
2/21/2018 The operative Peerless signal remains the recent Buy B5. History favors the
current decline remaining limited. Until there are more Sell S9s or Sell S12s,
a DJI decline much below 24000 seems unlikely. However, it should be added that
a decline limited to 13.5% from the highs would still be considered a healthy correction
given the long 8-year advance. Since that would mean a decline to 23000, do some
hedging with our Bearish MINCPs until the DJI's downtrend-line is broken.
"There's some scary stuff happening". Simple base-building now should
be viewed as quite constructive.
Charts 2/21/2018 Links Fixed.
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ MDGL TOWN
2/21/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsIs The Fed Whistling in The Graveyard?
"Being optimistic in a situation that doesn't warrant cheer or optimism")
Today's early rally fizzled on news that the FOMC, as presently constituted,
concluded two weeks ago that the US economy was strong enough to withstand
a hiking of interest rates soon. But what that would do for stocks after the long
advance since March 2009 remains to be seen. We are already seeing how
much a small rally in short-term rates is hurting dividend stocks and bonds.
It's true that history suggests the DJI's bull market can withstand rises in short
term rates up to about 3.2%, one percent away. But what about the world-wide
economic recovery. Other central banks are not likely to sit idly by and let the
US alone offer higher interest rates. There could be a quick spiraling up of
rates of foreign central banks quickly join in the tightening.
The even bigger question here is will the Feds have the ability to stop a stock market
decline that gets out of control. Would a 15% DJI decline quickly lead to a 20%
decline. And would that not cause lots and lots of selling all at once, including the
widespread use of all sorts sorts of computerized hedging and bear market
strategies employing leveraged ETFS, futures and options?
With rates already low and with the Fed already holding vast amount of public debt
and private mortgages, what ammunition does the Fed have left? And what can
Congress still do that will provide still more fiscal stimulus? A big infra-structure
program would help. But it is constrained by the size of the deficits already.
I think we can assume that Wall Street and the FED knows all this. They want
Trump's trickle-down policies to succeed. Their failure would create very serious
economic and political problems. But can they control the twin Frankenstein monster
that they have created, their leveraged trading vehicles and all their powerful
computerized sell programs? Will not the system require them, when things get
really explosive and dangerous, to save themselves first and make as much money
as they can for themselves and their own firms. This is always the dilemma when
industries are self-policing and government regulators are weak and under-staffed.
As if these fears were not enough, the mid-day rally also failed because
some traders are thinking about how much trouble the high school students
from Florida could cause the NRA and its beneficiaries in Congress, many of
whom are biggest supporters of the Trump Administration and its economic
growth policies.
What Is The Downside Tipping Point?
That's very hard to say. Certainly a close more than 3.5% below the 21-dma
would be a bad sign. That would also turn down the 65-dma. And that would
cause computerized sell programs to start up again. Considering all this,
being hedged with some shorts now seems a good plan. Many of the Bearish
MINCPs look very weak and incapable of rallying much. If 24000 fails to
hold up the DJI, 23000 and a 13.5% DJI decline from the recent high would
then be considered the next probable support.
Traders, wait for this downtrend on the Hourly DJI chart to come to an end
before adding to long positions. See the chart below.
Tax Free Municipal Bond Market looks very weak.
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/21/18 Bearish = 29 Bullish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 .833 1 1 .833 .833 FOOD .8 .8 .8 .8 .666 .6 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .75 .75 .75 .625 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .714 .857 .714 .571 COMODITY .657 .657 .628 .671 .657 .442 MILITARY .657 .71 .763 .763 .605 .421 SOFTWARE .636 .727 .712 .727 .651 .5 NIFTY .633 .666 .666 .633 .4 .333 REGBANKS .606 .545 .666 .606 .575 .363 HACKERS .583 .625 .583 .583 .583 .541 FINANCE .58 .569 .655 .645 .602 .451 CHINA .578 .515 .625 .625 .468 .296 NASD-100 .57 .6 .64 .64 .5 .36 ETFS .567 .611 .731 .761 .582 .373 COMPUTER .565 .478 .521 .565 .347 .347 INDEXES .551 .623 .711 .752 .623 .381 GREEN .516 .451 .419 .419 .354 .225 N = 17 ============================================================================================= BIOTECH .498 .49 .535 .524 .501 .444 MORNSTAR .478 .508 .592 .596 .508 .348 INDMATER .477 .477 .533 .522 .533 .388 RETAIL .471 .528 .66 .679 .641 .49 INSURANC .468 .437 .5 .468 .437 .187 DJI-13 .461 .461 .538 .538 .384 .384 SP500 .447 .468 .521 .513 .463 .35 JETS .444 .444 .444 .444 .333 .333 RUS-1000 .434 .455 .492 .491 .44 .338 INFRA .428 .457 .457 .485 .428 .4 SOLAR .428 .428 .285 .285 .19 .142 SP-100 .427 .468 .52 .52 .447 .322 COAL .4 .4 .4 .4 .5 .4 DOWJONES .4 .4 .5 .466 .4 .366 GAMING .392 .428 .392 .464 .392 .321 ELECTRON .382 .404 .376 .393 .303 .202 SEMI .361 .392 .346 .369 .3 .192 GOLD .333 .392 .529 .647 .686 .313 BEVERAGE .3 .3 .4 .35 .25 .2 TRANSP .3 .35 .5 .5 .4 .3 EDU .285 .142 .571 .571 .285 .142 OILGAS .25 .278 .3 .321 .364 .264 CHEM .225 .241 .274 .258 .274 .145 AUTO .205 .23 .307 .333 .307 .256 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .235 .235 .235 UTILITY .162 .162 .209 .162 .162 .139 REIT .022 .05 .05 .039 .033 .028 BONDFUND .009 .009 .027 0 .018 .018 PIPELINE 0 .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 N = 29
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/20/2018 The operative Peerless signal is a B5. The intra-day rally failed today and there
were 1000 more down than up. Even though the NASDAQ actually rose slightly,
more of a decline is likely. 24250-24500 is expected to be good support
if the rally is going to quickly resume. Below that the next support is at the
DJI's recent lows. Traders should note the 3x tested Hourly Downtrend-Line
just below. As long as this is not violated, we must assume more base-building is
needed. Only 40% of all stocks and ETFs are above their 65-dma like the
DJI, NASDAQ and QQQ now are. So, if the DJI falters, we should expect the
majority of stocks to fall, too. But there is no problem for so long as the DJIA stays
above its recent intra-day lows and the DJI's 65-dma does not turn down.
Much will will depend on the DJI's highest priced components. It is a little disturbing
now to see that only 40% of the DJIA's 30 stocks are now above the support of their
65-dma. If the DJIA were to drop back below its falling 65-dma, I would then expect
another round of leveraged computerized SELL problems.
The main technical problem now is that we can draw a downtrend-line from the
January peak through last Friday's high. Short-Sellers may start keying off this with
leveraged short vehicles, knowing that threat of rising interest rates is unsettling
to many traders of Bonds and dividend stocks. FED Chairman Powell's intentions
have not been made clear. Why is he in hiding? Is he afraid that whatever he says
could cause trouble in the markets? He needs to be more visible now. He is not
expected to make any public comments until he appears before Congress on
February 28th.
Could The Fed Stop A Decline Now?
Google "FED Chairman Powell" each morning to see if he has made clearer where
he stands on interest rates. The markets are now waiting for some guidance
about his intentions. In the interim, they are also watching who he has chosen
as his closest advisors. One of those picked recently said that "One challenge
facing the Fed and Mr. Powell would be to develop tools to reduce the prospect of
resorting to unconventional stimulus measures, such as bond buying, when interest rates
are pinned near zero, during future downturns. “The Fed isn’t out of ammunition, but the
ammunition has been shown to be quite weak,” (advisor Faust) said.
“That’s a very frightening prospect that we’ve all got to hope we don’t face.”
Several Fed officials have said Mr. Powell should launch a review of the central bank’s
inflation targeting framework to potentially allow for periods of higher inflation to create
more space for the Fed to cut interest rates in future downturns.
( https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-chairman-powell-taps-two-advisers-1518969788 )
"It's The Economy, Stupid"
One thing that could boost the market soon would be the President's appointing
the three missing members of the Fed's Open Market Committee. His picks
could be "Doves" who want the markets to have a chance to give his 1920s-like
policies of tax-cuts for big investors, deregulation of Wall Street and leasing of
more minerals' and oil/gas lands to "trickle-down" and have a big political pay-off
this November.
On the other hand, there may be more mass shootings. In the broad public mind,
Republicans are now closely tied to the NRA gun-lobby. Even more in lots of
young people's minds. But since young people tend not to vote, the Republican
Congress may shrug-off such popular calls for a ban on assault weapons and simply pass
legislation for more back-ground checks. As 2/3 of the American people favor
an outright ban on civilian ownership of these weapons, one would think that
the Democrats have a ready-made issue. But most of them also take lots of money
from the NRA and know that NRA-supporters usually do vote. So thus far, the
Dems still seem mostly focused on the 13 Russian agents that they say tilted the
entire last election away from Hillary Clinton. I suppose they think that this is a
winning issue. But a lot more evidence is needed to attribute such blame to 13
Russians. They have apparently have forgotten the words, "It's the economy, stupid"
or, perhaps, they don't want their own ties to Wall Street to make problems for them
in this year's Primaries.
Charts 2/20/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, SPPI WATT SQ MDGL TOWN
2/20/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs Top2017StocksTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/20/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 249.35 -2.61 246.57 63.8% Bearish RED .015 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7234.31 -5.16 7013.51 177% Bullish BLUE .011 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 271.4 -1.71 266 112.5% Bearish RED -.034 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 165.29 .33 159.69 197.7% Bullish BLUE -.023 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 343.41 -2.41 335.24 134.6% ---- RED .082 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.08 -1.26 148.48 130% ---- RED .054 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 70.51 -.95 66.18 383.2% Bullish RED .116 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.22 -2.44 34.56 174.6% Bearish RED .072 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 161.41 7.95 140.27 707.9% ---- BLUE .02 .191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 126.66 .77 113.68 573.3% ---- BLUE -.008 .159 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.25 -1.11 107.54 87% Bullish RED .033 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.24 -1.72 126.08 34.2% Bearish RED -.031 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.81 .01 6.44 279.5% Bullish ---- .055 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.22 -.16 23.98 -16.5% Bearish RED -.122 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.54 .15 17.16 179.2% Bearish RED -.116 -.132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.96 -.01 29.92 199.2% Bullish RED -.012 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.44 .15 23.41 -21.4% Bearish ---- -.016 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.9 -.11 W102.36 -14.2% Bearish BLUE -.176 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.47 -.65 49.15 54.8% Bullish RED -.051 -.142 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.32 -.11 W6.45 -116.4% Bullish RED .096 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.61 -2.41 34.03 482.2% Bearish BLUE -.006 .218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.09 .1 22.46 199.4% Bearish ---- -.003 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 171.85 -.58 164.34 272.1% ---- ---- -.085 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1102.46 7.66 1052.1 235.7% Bullish BLUE .025 .051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 92.72 .72 89.83 197.5% Bullish BLUE .028 .088 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1468.35 19.66 1414.51 286.6% ---- BLUE .101 .242 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 176.01 -1.35 173.15 -11.3% ---- BLUE .035 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 249.08 5.24 232.63 441.3% Bullish BLUE .045 .284 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 353.35 -1.69 343.16 137% Bullish BLUE -.015 .238 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 264.89 -2.73 255.53 224.4% Bullish RED .263 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 186.71 -.26 183.72 71.6% Bearish RED .015 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 155.56 -.73 153.97 104.7% Bearish BLUE .035 .076
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180220 -------------- NO. NHS Pct -------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------- SOFTWARE 66 9 14 % HACKERS 24 3 13 % NIFTY 30 3 10 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % NASD-100 100 5 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % GAMING 28 1 4 % CHEM 62 2 3 % SEMI 130 4 3 % BIOTECH 385 13 3 % INFRA 35 1 3 % INDMATER 90 2 2 % INDEXES 194 3 2 % ELECTRON 178 4 2 % SP500 485 10 2 % RUS-1000 837 17 2 % CHINA 64 1 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % SP-100 96 1 1 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % ======================================================== Others have none.Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/20/18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL .833 1 1 .833 .833 1 FOOD .8 .8 .8 .666 .6 .533 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .75 .75 .625 .75 SOFTWARE .727 .712 .727 .651 .5 .484 BIGBANKS .714 .714 .857 .714 .571 .571 MILITARY .71 .763 .763 .605 .421 .421 NIFTY .666 .666 .633 .4 .333 .333 COMODITY .657 .628 .671 .657 .442 .428 HACKERS .625 .583 .583 .583 .541 .5 INDEXES .623 .711 .752 .623 .391 .35 ETFS .611 .731 .761 .582 .388 .253 NASD-100 .6 .64 .64 .5 .37 .37 FINANCE .569 .655 .645 .602 .451 .419 REGBANKS .545 .666 .606 .575 .363 .333 RETAIL .528 .66 .679 .641 .509 .452 CHINA .515 .625 .625 .468 .312 .218 MORNSTAR .508 .592 .596 .508 .357 .348 N=17 ============================================================================================ BIOTECH .49 .535 .524 .501 .446 .418 COMPUTER .478 .521 .565 .347 .347 .26 INDMATER .477 .533 .522 .533 .388 .377 SP-100 .468 .52 .52 .447 .322 .333 SP500 .468 .521 .513 .463 .354 .338 DJI-13 .461 .538 .538 .384 .384 .461 INFRA .457 .457 .485 .428 .428 .342 RUS-1000 .455 .492 .491 .44 .345 .324 GREEN .451 .419 .419 .354 .225 .258 JETS .444 .444 .444 .333 .555 .333 INSURANC .437 .5 .468 .437 .187 .218 GAMING .428 .392 .464 .392 .321 .357 SOLAR .428 .285 .285 .19 .142 .142 ELECTRON .404 .376 .393 .303 .202 .185 COAL .4 .4 .4 .5 .4 .4 DOWJONES .4 .5 .466 .4 .366 .4 GOLD .392 .529 .647 .686 .333 .313 SEMI .392 .346 .369 .3 .207 .176 TRANSP .35 .5 .5 .4 .4 .3 BEVERAGE .3 .4 .35 .25 .2 .3 PIPELINE .285 .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 OILGAS .278 .3 .321 .364 .278 .285 AUTO .25 .325 .35 .325 .275 .375 CHEM .241 .274 .258 .274 .145 .145 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .235 .235 .235 .176 UTILITY .162 .209 .162 .162 .139 .162 EDU .142 .571 .571 .285 .142 .142 REIT .056 .056 .044 .039 .033 .028 BONDFUND .009 .027 0 .018 .018 0 N=29
===============================================================================
2/16/2018 The operative Peerless signal is a B5. Look for the DJI to continue to advance
back to its old highs. Where it goes from there will depend on breadth, volume
and whether Peerless gives a new Sell. It is very difficult for a market that gains
this much momentum to stay down. There are too many ready buyers on weakness.
While it's true the DJI-30 leadership is heavily influenced by its high-priced components
BA and GS, it's also true that overall breadth is good and is improving, except for
Bonds, REITS and Utilities, which are being sold by those who expect higher interest
rates. The interest rates trend is clearly up but rates have not reached levels expected to be
dangerous for the market. Short-term rates would have to rise above 3.2% to start
causing serious problems.
Futures are down. Below see the (pink) inverted head/shoulders
pattern that may develop next on Hourly DJI chart. Further below
see how BA has run up so much, it is under red Distribution on strength.
Second most heavily weighted DJI stock Goldman Sachs just got an
optimized Red Sell based on 20day stochastic.
Is It The 1920s Again?
At some point, if the 1920s play out again here - and that's what the current economic
policies bear closest resemblance to, the FED will obviously fail in its efforts to contain
the bullish bubble even when it raises rates. This is what happened in 1928.
At that point, there will be more flat top breakouts and an additional 30%-50% DJI gain,
as professional traders buy aggressively to make as much money as they can while the
bull market lasts. I leave out the 1980s as a parallel, because then there was a larger-than-life
Fed Chairman (Volcker) whose whole career was marked by a determination to bring
much higher Inflation rates back under control.
If the 1920s do offer the most similar past bull market to study, then we should expect an
exponential advance and this may occur even while A/D Line is falling and the Accumulation
Index is negative. In that type of market, only by falling can the DJI end the grip that
Greed has over the stock prices among all the active players and of course, we get many
sets of S9s and S12s.
One of the things that stands up about the stock market between mid-1926 and
September 1929 is how many minor intermediate term corrections there were back then.
In our case, the recent 10% DJI decline was only the first in the last 3 years. We should
expect more such declines from new highs. Each turnaround better conditions traders
to think that each pull-back is a buying opportunity.
There's another lesson in all the 10% pullbacks from 1926-1929. Recovery hesitations
at the old highs occurs when the market still has more upside. It is when the DJI dashes
up 20% or 30% from such a 10% pullback that the DJI becomes most dangerously
over-bought.
Of course, what makes this market so unique is the lack of downside volatility for
so long. The upwards momentum is even even steeper now than in the 1920s and
the bull market is now one month short of being 9 years old. The 1920s bull market
lasted only 8 years.
But before we make too much of the current bull market's ripe old age, we should
know that the longest bull market without a 20% DJI decline was from 10/9/1946 to
12/13/1961 (15 plus years). The 1957 decline stopped with the DJI down
about 19.3% from its high. The second next longest bull market when defined as
not having a 20% DJI decline was the one from 10/11/1990 to 1/14/2000. (9.25 years)
It also was punctuated with a 19.3% decline based on closing prices in 1998. Based
on the 1990s experience, we should start seriously warning in May. On the other hand,
if the 1946-1961 were to repeat, then we can expect the DJI to go much, much higher.
10% Corrections: 1926-1929.
DJI Peak Size of Decline Bottom Subsequent Action
--------- --------------- ------- -------------------
9/7/1926 12% 10/19/1926 Next flat-top breakout on 4/11/27
10/3/1927 9% 10/24/1927 Next flat-top breakout on 3/21/28
11/28/1928 10% 12/10/1928 DJI shot right back up 22% by 2/5/1928.
3/1/1929 8% 3/26/1929 DJI quickly rose back up 10% by 5/6/1929.
5/6/1929 10% 5/27/1929 DJI quickly rose back up 30% to final top on 9/3/1929.
Charts 2/20/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/20/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/16/18
Major ETFs' 5-day mv.avgs. are mostly rising and cannot easily turn down.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 251.96 -.54 246.17 200.8% ---- BLUE .06 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7239.47 -16.96 6981.96 258.7% Bullish BLUE .066 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 273.11 .08 265.34 217.3% Bearish BLUE .022 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 164.96 -.74 158.87 275.8% ---- RED -.002 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.82 .71 334.25 219.2% Bullish BLUE .109 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 153.34 .54 148.16 219.8% Bullish BLUE .12 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.46 .23 65.24 630.7% Bullish BLUE .159 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 37.66 -.03 33.96 517.8% Bullish BLUE .152 .083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 153.46 -1.76 140.48 696% ---- BLUE .008 .133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 125.89 -.79 112.92 812.5% ---- ---- -.001 .165 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.36 -.4 107.35 216.7% Bullish RED .072 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 127.96 -.42 125.37 126% ---- RED -.033 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.8 .03 6.44 282.6% Bullish BLUE .097 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.38 .18 24.3 111.9% Bearish BLUE -.079 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.39 -.28 17.89 517.7% Bearish RED -.093 -.226 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.97 .22 29.75 117.5% Bullish BLUE .04 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.29 .16 W23.54 -70.6% Bearish ---- -.021 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.01 .24 W102.19 -10.3% Bearish RED -.206 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 50.12 .44 48.93 159.2% Bullish BLUE -.064 -.136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.43 -.04 W6.47 124.8% Bullish ---- .137 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 40.02 .05 34.04 1025.1% Bearish BLUE .039 .203 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.99 -.38 22.18 292.7% Bearish RED -.009 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 172.43 -.56 162.71 486.1% ---- ---- -.063 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1094.8 5.28 1051.94 268.9% Bullish BLUE .05 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 92 -.66 89.13 211.9% Bullish RED -.01 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1448.69 -13.07 1386.23 386.7% Bearish RED .075 .228 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 177.36 -2.6 176.41 35.3% ---- RED .048 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 243.84 -2.66 228.03 249% ---- RED .055 .258 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 355.04 -1.42 343.8 322.6% Bullish RED -.03 .247 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 267.62 -.06 253.16 355.5% Bullish BLUE .32 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 186.97 1.7 184.06 77.3% Bearish BLUE .122 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 156.29 -3.69 152.29 228.8% Bearish RED .08 .074
TABLE 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180216 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 24 6 25 % SOFTWARE 66 10 15 % ====================================================== REGBANKS 33 4 12 % DOWJONES 30 2 7 % INDMATER 90 6 7 % INFRA 35 2 6 % MILITARY 38 2 5 % BIOTECH 385 19 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % SP-100 96 4 4 % GAMING 28 1 4 % RUS-1000 837 30 4 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % FINANCE 93 3 3 % NIFTY 30 1 3 % INDEXES 194 6 3 % MORNSTAR 238 6 3 % SP500 485 14 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % NASD-100 100 2 2 % CHINA 64 1 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % UTILITY 43 1 2 % ELECTRON 178 2 1 % SEMI 130 1 1 % REIT 177 1 1 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % =================================================== None 18 groups.
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/16/18 Bullish = 25 Bearish = 18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 .833 .833 1 .833 FOOD .8 .8 .666 .6 .533 .533 MILITARY .763 .763 .605 .421 .421 .315 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .75 .625 .75 .75 ETFS .731 .761 .582 .388 .268 .223 BIGBANKS .714 .857 .714 .571 .571 .285 SOFTWARE .712 .727 .651 .5 .484 .409 INDEXES .711 .752 .623 .391 .35 .283 NIFTY .666 .633 .4 .333 .333 .3 REGBANKS .666 .606 .575 .363 .333 .333 RETAIL .66 .679 .641 .509 .452 .49 FINANCE .655 .645 .602 .451 .43 .322 NASD-100 .64 .64 .5 .37 .37 .35 COMODITY .628 .671 .657 .442 .428 .4 CHINA .625 .625 .468 .312 .218 .234 MORNSTAR .592 .596 .508 .357 .352 .226 HACKERS .583 .583 .583 .541 .5 .458 EDU .571 .571 .285 .142 .142 .142 DJI-13 .538 .538 .384 .384 .461 .153 BIOTECH .535 .524 .501 .446 .42 .379 INDMATER .533 .522 .533 .388 .377 .211 GOLD .529 .647 .686 .333 .313 .215 COMPUTER .521 .565 .347 .347 .26 .217 SP500 .521 .513 .463 .354 .34 .263 SP-100 .52 .52 .447 .322 .333 .25 N=25 ============================================================================================ DOWJONES .5 .466 .4 .366 .4 .266 INSURANC .5 .468 .437 .187 .218 .187 TRANSP .5 .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 ============================================================================================ RUS-1000 .492 .491 .44 .345 .327 .244 INFRA .457 .485 .428 .428 .342 .228 JETS .444 .444 .333 .555 .333 .333 GREEN .419 .419 .354 .225 .258 .129 BEVERAGE .4 .35 .25 .2 .3 .2 COAL .4 .4 .5 .4 .4 .1 GAMING .392 .464 .392 .321 .357 .357 ELECTRON .376 .393 .303 .202 .179 .123 SEMI .346 .369 .3 .207 .169 .1 AUTO .325 .35 .325 .275 .4 .325 OILGAS .3 .321 .364 .278 .285 .192 PIPELINE .285 .428 .428 .428 .428 .142 SOLAR .285 .285 .19 .142 .142 0 CHEM .274 .258 .274 .145 .161 .096 UTILITY .209 .162 .162 .139 .162 .093 HOMEBLDG .176 .235 .235 .235 .176 .176 REIT .056 .045 .039 .033 .028 .033 BONDFUND .027 0 .018 .018 0 .009 N=18
==============================================================================
2/15/2018 The very quick recovery from the 10% sell-off continues. In trading range recoveries,
prices move very quickly back to the old highs. That suits Peerless. The median gain in the
DJI after past Buy B5s was 10.5%. Such a gain here would take the DJI to a nominal
new high at 26730 at the time of the next Peerless Sell. Today, SPY closed decisively
above its now rising 65-dma, following the lead of the DJI, NASDAQ and QQQ. It was a
another good breadth day. There were 1043 more up then down on the NYSE and the A/D
Line now shows an uptrend. The same goes for all the items we have data on. And see how the
their percentage above the 65-dma has now moved up to a more respectable 44%.
Can we keep on rising in this fashion all the way back to 26500? The answer appears to be
"YES" based on the four earlier cases where DJI fell 10% and then very quickly rose right
back above its 21-dma. But after that, it will depend on whether Peerless gives a Sell signal,
This will be based on the P-I and IP21 readings.
The DJI has quickly risen back above its 65-dma after falling 10%.
What has happened after these developments in the past.
December 1928-January 1929 - DJI rose to new highs, stopping only after S9/S12 when FED raised rates.
September 1938 - DJI rose to new highs, stopping only after an S12 way above 21-dma.
June-July 1956 - DJI rose back to old highs and topped out after S2 and A/D Line uptrend-break.
December 1980-January 1981 - DJI rose to nominal new high closing and S9/S12.
Buy B5s' History N=14 Avg.=13.2% Median Gain = 10.5% Avg Paper Loss=0.7%
Charts 2/15/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/15/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1 COLOR-CODED QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/15/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 252.5 3.2 242.03 282.8% ---- BLUE .072 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7256.43 112.81 6874.49 344.4% Bullish BLUE .096 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 273.03 3.44 261.5 291.7% Bearish BLUE .04 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 165.7 3.02 156.1 387.3% Bullish BLUE .042 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 345.11 3.73 331.03 265.2% ---- BLUE .096 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 152.8 1.65 146.77 248.6% ---- BLUE .105 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 71.23 1.55 63 825.6% ---- BLUE .153 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 37.69 1.19 34 635.4% Bullish BLUE .169 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 155.22 5.53 133.44 1199.4% Bearish BLUE .036 .151 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 126.68 6.66 107.03 1133.5% ---- BLUE .026 .175 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 110.76 1.03 105.67 275.6% Bullish BLUE .095 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 128.38 .15 124.77 135% ---- ---- -.046 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.77 .12 6.43 146% ---- BLUE .082 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.2 -.14 23.84 0% Bearish RED -.103 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.67 .08 16.55 522.7% Bearish BLUE -.093 -.235 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.75 .31 30.26 -38% Bullish BLUE .022 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.13 -.1 W23.62 -100.1% Bearish RED -.034 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.77 .03 W102.22 -30.8% Bearish ---- -.201 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.68 1.08 48.56 218.3% ---- BLUE -.094 -.153 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.47 .08 6.27 78.2% Bullish ---- .159 .024 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 39.97 2.95 32.73 1059.7% Bearish BLUE .076 .205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.37 .3 21.67 414.8% Bearish BLUE .035 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 172.99 5.62 156.41 553.4% ---- BLUE -.038 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1089.52 19.82 1037.78 422% Bullish BLUE .076 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 92.66 1.85 88.18 431.8% Bullish BLUE .015 .104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1461.76 10.71 1339.6 400.7% Bearish RED .096 .25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.96 .44 176.11 238.9% ---- RED .078 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 246.5 5.08 232.08 629.1% Bullish BLUE .089 .282 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 356.46 11.61 332.83 395.4% ---- BLUE -.066 .244 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 267.68 5.1 249.3 420.9% Bullish BLUE .268 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 185.27 .58 184.12 110.3% Bearish RED .086 -.037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 159.98 1.92 149.21 460.5% ---- BLUE .102 .092Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180215 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 158 A quick recovery into healthy territory. NEWLOWS 34 MAXCP 136 Professionals are bullish. MINCP 35 TTTNH 76 TTTNL 79 FASTUP 422 Many more long plays by swing traders. FASTDOWN 78 CPCROSSA 92 CPCROSSD 83 BIGVOLUP 3 BIGVODN 6Table 3
Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180215 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 3 50 % HACKERS 24 6 25 % SOFTWARE 66 11 17 % =================================================================== NIFTY 30 4 13 % MILITARY 38 5 13 % JETS 9 1 11 % COAL 10 1 10 % DOWJONES 30 2 7 % SP-100 96 7 7 % INFRA 35 2 6 % INDEXES 194 9 5 % BIOTECH 385 19 5 % RUS-1000 837 42 5 % NASD-100 100 5 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % SOLAR 21 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % FINANCE 93 4 4 % GAMING 28 1 4 % INDMATER 90 4 4 % SP500 485 20 4 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % RETAIL 53 2 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % MORNSTAR 238 6 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % CHEM 62 1 2 % ELECTRON 178 4 2 % SEMI 130 3 2 % CHINA 64 1 2 % ETFS 67 1 1 % OILGAS 140 1 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % Others None
Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/15/18 Bullish = 26 Bearish = 20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 .833 .833 1 .833 1 BIGBANKS .857 .714 .571 .571 .285 .285 FOOD .8 .666 .6 .533 .533 .6 MILITARY .763 .605 .421 .421 .315 .368 ETFS .761 .582 .388 .268 .223 .149 INDEXES .752 .623 .391 .35 .288 .293 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .625 .75 .75 .625 SOFTWARE .727 .651 .5 .484 .409 .287 RETAIL .679 .641 .509 .452 .528 .396 COMODITY .671 .657 .442 .428 .414 .5 GOLD .647 .686 .333 .313 .215 .235 FINANCE .645 .602 .451 .43 .344 .268 NASD-100 .64 .5 .37 .37 .38 .3 NIFTY .633 .4 .333 .333 .3 .233 CHINA .625 .468 .312 .218 .234 .171 REGBANKS .606 .575 .363 .333 .333 .181 MORNSTAR .596 .508 .357 .352 .231 .168 HACKERS .583 .583 .541 .5 .458 .333 EDU .571 .285 .142 .142 .142 .142 COMPUTER .565 .347 .347 .26 .217 .26 DJI-13 .538 .384 .384 .461 .153 .153 BIOTECH .524 .501 .446 .42 .376 .376 INDMATER .522 .533 .388 .377 .211 .2 SP-100 .52 .447 .322 .333 .25 .218 SP500 .513 .463 .354 .34 .276 .214 N= 24 ============================================================================================ TRANSP .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 .3 ============================================================================================ RUS-1000 .491 .44 .345 .327 .253 .201 INFRA .485 .428 .428 .342 .228 .171 INSURANC .468 .437 .187 .218 .187 .093 DOWJONES .466 .4 .366 .4 .266 .166 GAMING .464 .392 .321 .357 .357 .357 JETS .444 .333 .555 .333 .333 .333 PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .428 .142 .142 GREEN .419 .354 .225 .258 .129 .193 COAL .4 .5 .4 .4 .1 .4 ELECTRON .393 .303 .202 .179 .123 .112 SEMI .369 .3 .207 .169 .107 .092 AUTO .35 .325 .275 .4 .325 .3 BEVERAGE .35 .25 .2 .3 .2 .15 OILGAS .321 .364 .278 .285 .192 .207 SOLAR .285 .19 .142 .142 0 .047 CHEM .258 .274 .145 .161 .096 .08 HOMEBLDG .235 .235 .235 .176 .176 .176 UTILITY .162 .162 .139 .162 .093 .069 REIT .044 .039 .033 .028 .033 .028 BONDFUND 0 .018 .018 0 0 .018 N = 19
===============================================================================
===============================================================================
2/14/2018 The median gain in the DJI after past Buy B5s was 10.5%. If the DJI gains as much
here, we should see it reach 26730 at the next Peerless Sell. This is not so outlandish.
After all, the September Buy B21 brought almost exactly the 17.5% gain it had averaged
in the past.
The DJI, NASDAQ and QQQ each closed decisively above their now rising 65-dma. today
Simultaneously, the NYSE A/D Line has broken above its steep downtrend-line. This is a bullish
combination and makes it seem that they are setting up broad trading ranges, bounded by the
resistance at their highs at the end of January and their lows 10% down from that a few days
ago. If this chart interpretation is correct, expect prices to fairly easily rise until we reach the
necklines of the quickly formed head/shoulders patterns at the recent tops.
Of course, this assumes that the round number 25,000 can quickly be surmounted. Making
the market rally now are two Labor Department reports that just came out yesterday. The
first pegs the CPI (Inflation Rate) at 2.1% annualized. 3.2% is the level history suggests we
have to worry about. The second is that real wages actually declined in January. For the last
30 years, there is ample evidence in the Fed's own FOMC deliberations that shows they|
often sought to raises rates only when rising real wages themselves posed a threat to corporate
profits.
That we may be on our way back to the recent highs, the DJI moved up 1% today.
As expected, the leaders today in the DJI-30 were its 3 highest priced components:
BA ( 343.11 +8.42), GS (269.03 +3.35) and MMM (252.36 + 4.67). But it was
. also a broad advance today, as there were 1145 more up than down on the NYSE.
Tomorrow we will want to see follow-trough strength that lifts the SP-500, NYSE,
OEX and Russell-2000 above their 65-dma, too.
Charts 2/14/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/14/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Augmented Buy B20s
See how well Buy B20s timed entrance into long positions for top 2017 stocks.Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/14/18
ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dmaAROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 249.3 2.73 238.67 11% Bearish BLUE .069 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7143.62 130.11 6777.16 66% Bullish BLUE .085 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 269.59 3.59 257.63 36.4% Bearish BLUE .03 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 162.68 2.99 153.45 78.3% Bearish BLUE .021 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 341.38 6.14 327.4 42.9% ---- BLUE .082 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 151.15 2.67 145.44 44.3% ---- BLUE .09 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 69.68 3.5 60.51 135.5% Bullish BLUE .137 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 36.5 1.94 33.31 -20.3% Bullish BLUE .149 .108 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 149.69 9.42 122.3 357.3% Bearish BLUE .026 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 120.02 6.34 101.51 272.2% Bearish BLUE -.004 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.73 2.19 104.86 15% Bullish BLUE .082 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 128.23 2.15 124.98 137.4% ---- BLUE -.088 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.65 .21 6.58 -107.1% Bearish BLUE .036 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.34 .36 24.2 -215.7% Bearish BLUE -.119 -.07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 18.59 1.43 16.85 -176.8% Bearish BLUE -.111 -.263 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.44 .52 W30.98 -147.8% ---- BLUE -.001 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.23 -.18 W23.6 -78.5% Bearish RED .018 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 101.74 -.62 W102.4 -27.9% Bearish RED -.191 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.6 -.55 47.56 51.6% Bearish RED -.107 -.167 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.39 -.06 6.37 -39.1% Bullish ---- .144 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.02 2.99 32.74 -102.2% Bearish BLUE .074 .124 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.07 .61 21.53 211.4% Bearish BLUE .002 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 167.37 3.03 155.15 245.3% ---- BLUE -.056 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1069.7 17.6 1001.52 101.7% ---- BLUE .067 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 90.81 .98 85.01 67.9% Bullish BLUE .009 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1451.05 36.54 1350.5 124% Bearish BLUE .07 .22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 179.52 6.37 171.58 -18.8% ---- BLUE .053 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 241.42 8.79 217.52 277% Bullish BLUE .101 .193 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 344.85 1.69 329.66 -48.2% Bullish BLUE -.047 .242 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 262.58 7.05 246.35 108.6% Bullish BLUE .2 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 184.69 .97 181.22 -178.5% Bearish BLUE .117 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 158.06 4.09 145.99 123% ---- BLUE .045 .089Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 2018-02-14
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 118
NEWLOWS 87
MAXCP 141 Professionals have turned bullish
MINCP 36
TTTNH 117 Day Traders have turned bullish
TTTNL 94
FASTUP 177 More fast-movers up for swing traders.
FASTDOWN 105
CPCROSSA 389 Ratio shows today was significant. 12:25 AM 2/15/2018
CPCROSSD 40
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 9 Small scale dumping now.Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180214 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 2 33 % HACKERS 25 4 16 % ---------------------------------------------------- COAL 10 1 10 % MILITARY 38 3 8 % SOFTWARE 66 4 6 % INFRA 35 2 6 % RETAIL 53 3 6 % BIOTECH 385 17 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % NIFTY 30 1 3 % SP-100 96 3 3 % INSURANC 32 1 3 % RUS-1000 837 23 3 % CHINA 64 2 3 % FINANCE 93 2 2 % INDMATER 90 2 2 % INDEXES 194 4 2 % MORNSTAR 238 4 2 % SP500 485 12 2 % NASD-100 100 2 2 % ELECTRON 178 2 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % COMODITY 70 1 1 % Others noneTable 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/14/18 Bearish = 27 Bullish = 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL .833 .833 1 .833 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .625 .75 .75 .625 .75 BIGBANKS .714 .571 .571 .285 .285 .571 GOLD .686 .333 .313 .215 .235 .274 FOOD .666 .6 .533 .533 .6 .533 COMODITY .657 .442 .428 .414 .5 .614 SOFTWARE .651 .5 .484 .409 .303 .469 RETAIL .641 .509 .452 .528 .396 .66 INDEXES .608 .391 .35 .288 .293 .5 MILITARY .605 .421 .421 .315 .368 .421 FINANCE .602 .451 .43 .344 .268 .537 HACKERS .6 .56 .52 .48 .36 .4 ETFS .582 .388 .268 .223 .149 .388 REGBANKS .575 .363 .333 .333 .181 .424 INDMATER .533 .388 .377 .211 .2 .4 MORNSTAR .508 .357 .352 .231 .176 .47 BIOTECH .501 .446 .42 .376 .376 .48 N=17 ============================================================================================= COAL .5 .4 .4 .1 .4 .3 NASD-100 .5 .37 .37 .38 .3 .48 ============================================================================================- CHINA .468 .312 .218 .234 .171 .343 SP500 .463 .354 .34 .276 .222 .457 SP-100 .447 .322 .333 .25 .229 .479 RUS-1000 .44 .345 .327 .253 .209 .42 INSURANC .437 .187 .218 .187 .093 .281 INFRA .428 .428 .342 .228 .171 .457 PIPELINE .428 .428 .428 .142 .142 .571 DOWJONES .4 .366 .4 .266 .2 .466 NIFTY .4 .333 .333 .3 .233 .4 TRANSP .4 .4 .3 .3 .3 .5 GAMING .392 .321 .357 .357 .357 .571 DJI-13 .384 .384 .461 .153 .153 .538 OILGAS .364 .278 .285 .192 .207 .371 GREEN .354 .225 .258 .129 .193 .193 COMPUTER .347 .347 .26 .217 .26 .26 JETS .333 .555 .333 .333 .333 .333 AUTO .325 .275 .4 .325 .325 .375 ELECTRON .303 .202 .179 .123 .112 .207 SEMI .3 .207 .169 .107 .1 .184 EDU .285 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 CHEM .274 .145 .161 .096 .08 .258 BEVERAGE .25 .2 .3 .2 .15 .3 HOMEBLDG .235 .235 .176 .176 .176 .294 SOLAR .19 .142 .142 0 .047 .095 UTILITY .162 .139 .162 .093 .069 .116 REIT .039 .033 .028 .033 .028 .033 BONDFUND .018 .018 0 0 .018 .018 N = 27
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/13/2018 The current Peerless Buy B5 predicts more than a 9% jump in the DJI by the
time of the next Peerless Sell signal, assuming the median rise after this signal
plays out. True, the Closing Powers and 5-day moving averages are still falling
for DIA, SPY, QQQ and the NASDAQ and true the DJI and the other key
indexes must still get past their 65-dma, but Buy B5s have always been profitable.
As usually happens, it is up to the DJI to lead the market up. But we have to be
impressed today that there were more than 600 advancers on the NYSE as well as
how the most Bullish MAXCPs are doing. Note, we still do not see enough Bullish
MAXCP stocks, however, to be complacent. So stay short a few of the Bearish
MINCPs is my counsel. We definitely want to be buyers of some the augmented
B20 special situations. See their amazing success in 2017-2018.
Positive OBVPct with DJI below the Lower Band
There's another interesting statistic now that we may be able to learn from by looking at
its history. The DJI closed 3.7% below its 21-day ma and the OBVPct stands at a
positive +.143. See Table A below. The conclusion I reach looking at all 12 past
cases is that these technical characteristics usually brings an excellent rally after
some minor weakness but only when the DJI is still in a bull market and above a rising
200-day ma. Otherwise, a positive OBVPct when the DJI is below its 200-day ma
can be a very bearish sign, notably in 1930 and 2008.
The CPI figures, just out, show that the 12-month rate of inflation is holding steady
at 2.1%. This is 1% less than the level that my research shows is dangerous.
( https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm )
Watch the "la/ma" number. We need to see it rise above .965 to show that the
DJI is coming back within our normal 3.5% bands.
STOCKS: Augmented Buy B20s (Takeoff velocity reached)
When we look at the best performing stocks of 2017, we find, as usual, that about
75% show flat top breakouts with the Accumulation Index either bulging above +.375
in the month or two before the breakout or during the breakout. This we have found
to be true in all our yearly studies of super stocks going back to the 1980s.
One important additional finding should be noticed. A Tiger Buy B20 occurred early on,
in a very timely manner, for nearly all of 2017's super-stocks. As a result, I want to start
showing the best of the Tiger Buy B20s here several times a week. By downloading
BIG17 (that is the name I have given the 48 top performing stocks of 2017) from our
Tiger Data Page, you can readily replicate these findings. Because of this study's
significance, you can now also download the full list of BUYB20s for the last two
weeks, too, and inspect them more closely.
Here are the next best 12 best performing stocks of 2017. All but one had
nearly perfect Buy B20s at the start of their move. I'm quite stunned by their
success here. This is quite amazing. You can readily replicate these results yourself.
Charts 2/13/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/13/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Augmented Buy B20s
Table A Special Study
Conditions:
DJI is below the 3.5% lower band and the OBVPct is above +.12
In addition, the P-I and IP21 were negative, as now.
Date DJIA LA/MA P-I IP211 19290524 305.6 .961 -98.4 -.071 RISING 200 DMA. Bull market. DJI fell from 305.6 to 293.4 on 5/27/1929. DJI then rallied to 381 on 9/3/29. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 19300428 276.9 .959 -74.9 -.028 DJI began a long bear market. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 19300609 250.8 .93 -52 -.123 DJI turned down again and fell sharply. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 19300814 221.1 .95 -67 -.046 DJI immediately rallied from 221.1 to 244.3 on 9/9/30. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 19320602 47.3 .899 -103.9 -.084 DJI based and 3 wks later rose dramatically from 42.8 to 79.9 on 9/7/32. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 19340502 98.8 .95 -32.3 -.038 DJI fell immediately to 91.8 on 5/14/34. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 19390810 137.3 .965 -19.8 -.05 DJI fell immediately to 131.3 on 8/24/1939. But then jumped to 155.9 on 9/12/1039 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 19730814 870.71 .956 -142.1 -.035 DJI fell immediately to 851.9 on 8/22/1973. But then jumped to 987.06 on 10/26/73. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 19860717 1781.78 .962 -82.8 -.034 RISING 200 DMA. Bull market. DJI fell to 1766.87 on 7/29/1986. But then jumped to 1919.71 on 9/4/86. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 20070803 13181.91 .965 -428.6 -.071 RISING 200 DMA. Bull market. DJI fell to 12845.78 on 8/16/2007. But then jumped to 14164.53 on 10/9/2007. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 20080104 12800.18 .958 -103.9 -.077 DJI fell to 11971.19 on 1/22/2008. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 20080915 10917.51 .956 -256 -.046 DJI fell to 8451.19 on 10/10/2008.Table 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/13/18ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 246.57 .4 W248.76 -48.8% Bearish BLUE .017 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7013.51 31.55 W7051.98 -73.5% Bearish BLUE .01 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 266 .66 W267.67 -59.2% Bearish BLUE -.023 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 159.69 .82 W160.21 -82.8% Bearish BLUE -.043 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 335.24 .99 W338.52 -55.4% Bearish BLUE .026 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.48 .32 W149.84 -40.9% Bearish BLUE .007 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 66.18 .94 W67.93 -139.4% Bearish BLUE .061 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 34.56 .6 W36.64 -131.2% Bearish BLUE .042 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 140.27 -.21 140.02 -354.5% Bearish BLUE -.023 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 113.68 .76 W114.04 -230.5% Bearish BLUE -.069 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.54 .19 W109.41 -84.8% Bearish BLUE -.003 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.08 .71 124.79 28% Bearish BLUE -.108 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.44 0 W6.79 -458.1% Bearish BLUE -.006 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.98 -.32 W25.39 -445.9% Bearish RED -.196 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.16 -.73 W19.21 -1020.4% Bearish RED -.232 -.271 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 29.92 .17 W31.34 -343.3% Bearish BLUE -.066 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.41 -.13 W23.6 -2.1% Bullish ---- .025 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.36 .17 102.31 -12.2% Bearish BLUE -.164 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.15 .22 48.1 84.9% Bearish BLUE -.096 -.147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.45 -.02 6.44 141.4% Bullish ---- .145 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.03 -.01 W37.72 -1417% Bearish BLUE .008 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.46 .28 22.14 -86.1% Bearish BLUE -.098 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 164.34 1.63 159.54 41.1% Bearish BLUE -.123 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1052.1 .16 1048.58 -136.5% Bearish BLUE .015 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 89.83 .7 89.61 -84.6% Bearish BLUE -.062 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1414.51 28.28 W1416.78 -102.1% Bearish BLUE .009 .187 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 173.15 -3.26 W180.18 -341.7% Bearish RED -.037 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 232.63 4.6 228.8 155.7% Bearish BLUE .045 .144 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 343.16 -.64 W348.12 33.2% ---- BLUE -.093 .224 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 255.53 2.37 W257.1 -62.7% Bullish BLUE .151 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 183.72 -.34 W191.29 -196.4% Bearish BLUE .044 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 153.97 1.68 W154.34 -80.4% Bearish BLUE -.003 .075Table 3 New Highs by Sector Date = 180213 No. NHs Pct/ ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 1 17 % HACKERS 25 4 16 % SOFTWARE 66 3 5 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % INDEXES 194 3 2 % BIOTECH 386 8 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % ELECTRON 178 1 1 % RUS-1000 837 6 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % (Others show no highs)Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/13/18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL .833 1 .833 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .625 .75 .75 .625 .75 .75 FOOD .6 .533 .533 .6 .533 .6 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .285 .285 .571 .571 HACKERS .56 .52 .48 .36 .4 .36 JETS .555 .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 RETAIL .509 .452 .528 .396 .66 .622 N=7 =========================================================================================== SOFTWARE .5 .484 .409 .303 .469 .484 =========================================================================================== FINANCE .451 .43 .344 .268 .537 .526 BIOTECH .448 .422 .378 .378 .487 .463 COMODITY .442 .428 .414 .5 .614 .685 INFRA .428 .342 .228 .171 .485 .428 PIPELINE .428 .428 .142 .142 .571 .571 MILITARY .421 .421 .315 .368 .421 .421 COAL .4 .4 .1 .4 .3 .4 TRANSP .4 .3 .3 .3 .5 .45 INDEXES .391 .35 .288 .293 .505 .572 ETFS .388 .268 .223 .149 .402 .656 INDMATER .388 .377 .211 .2 .4 .433 DJI-13 .384 .461 .153 .153 .538 .538 NASD-100 .37 .37 .38 .3 .48 .55 DOWJONES .366 .4 .266 .2 .466 .466 REGBANKS .363 .333 .333 .181 .393 .363 MORNSTAR .357 .352 .231 .176 .47 .495 SP500 .354 .34 .276 .222 .457 .482 COMPUTER .347 .26 .217 .26 .26 .304 RUS-1000 .345 .327 .253 .209 .42 .422 GOLD .333 .313 .215 .235 .274 .372 NIFTY .333 .333 .3 .233 .4 .5 SP-100 .322 .333 .25 .229 .479 .541 GAMING .321 .357 .357 .357 .571 .571 CHINA .312 .218 .234 .171 .328 .578 OILGAS .278 .285 .192 .207 .371 .464 AUTO .275 .4 .325 .325 .375 .45 HOMEBLDG .235 .176 .176 .176 .294 .176 GREEN .225 .258 .129 .193 .193 .129 SEMI .207 .169 .107 .1 .192 .23 ELECTRON .202 .179 .123 .112 .213 .247 BEVERAGE .2 .3 .2 .15 .3 .3 INSURANC .187 .218 .187 .093 .281 .281 CHEM .145 .161 .096 .08 .258 .274 EDU .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 SOLAR .142 .142 0 .047 .095 .095 UTILITY .139 .162 .093 .069 .116 .116 REIT .033 .028 .033 .028 .033 .033 BONDFUND .018 0 0 .018 .018 .009 N= 38
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/12/2018 The Futures show another decline is shaping up. We need to see the DJI refuse
to zig-zag much below 24000 and then start another rally. That, however, is not
what happened in the past when a Buy B5 took place below a flat 65-dma.
In the two cases this happened, in 1935 and 1955, the DJI had to make another
new low before it could rally significantly. But then it did rally nicely.
The President's Infrastructure Spending plan is far more private than public, says
the NY Times tonight. It is quite unlike Eisenhower's interstate highway plan,
which was a powerful stimulus in the 1950s and 1960s. Instead, we will see more
partisan Congressional fighting, a longer delay and in the end, probably just
a token effort to deal with the crumbing US infrastructure. This will give the
market an excuse to sell-off a bit here. But, little more should have been expected.
The federal budget's deficit is already very big. If I am right, and Trump's proosals
here are not much of a surprise, then the DJI should shrug this news off.
Watch CAT, though, to see how it reacts.
(See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/business/trump-infrastructure-proposal.html?emc=edit_th_180213&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894 )
The DJI and leading stocks took a nice step forward in repairing the technical
damage of last week's decline. But it is still below its flat 65-dma and still is not
within its normal bands. There appears to be lots of resistance overhead up to
25,000 on the Dow. From Table 1, we see that almost all the 31 items there
are below their 5-dma pivot point and show falling Closing Powers. From Table 1,
we note that only 4 of our 46 sectors show a majority of their stocks above the
65-dma. There are many more stocks below the resistance of their 65-dma than
above its support. There is a great deal of pressure on the strongest and highest
priced DJI-30 stocks, BA, GS, UNH, CAT... They need to hold up.
But for one day, at least, breadth was good and we do now have a Peerless Buy B5
as the operative Peerless signal. After more base-building, the DJI should able to
stabilize the market and then make new highs again in a month or two. All the political-
economic factors that made the market soar last year are still in effect. Today the NY Fed
said it believed Inflation is not yet a serious threat. Bond holders apparently did not believe
him. Bonds and REITs rallied very little. We will be eager to see the latest CPI numbers
later this week.
Right now, 24000 should be considered support and 25000 considered resistance.
Owning some of the few bullish MAXCPs and holding short some of the bearish MINCPs
would seem to be prudent and offer a high chance for a profit.
Charts 2/12/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/12/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/12/18Only 5 of the 31 ETFs and leading stocks below are above their 5-day pivot points: These include NVDA and BA Only 2 of the 31 ETFs and leading stocks have "Bullish" Closing Powers: WEAT and GSETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 246.17 4.14 W248.96 59.3% Bearish BLUE .017 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6981.96 107.47 W7115.88 10.4% Bearish BLUE .018 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 265.34 3.84 W269.13 26.7% Bearish BLUE -.016 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 158.87 2.77 W162.31 23.7% Bearish BLUE -.036 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 334.25 3.22 W338.94 -19% Bearish BLUE .013 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 148.16 1.39 W149.69 8.1% Bearish BLUE -.021 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.24 2.24 W67.99 16.2% Bearish BLUE .07 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 33.96 -.04 W35.47 206.4% Bearish RED .054 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 140.48 7.04 W150 163.5% Bearish BLUE -.033 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 112.92 5.89 W118.79 156.6% Bearish BLUE -.077 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.35 1.68 W109.36 7.9% Bearish BLUE -.009 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.37 .6 W125.38 -53.5% Bearish BLUE -.091 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.44 .01 W7.05 -478.8% Bearish RED .015 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.3 .46 W26.19 -299% Bearish BLUE -.167 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 17.89 1.34 W20.89 -631.9% Bearish BLUE -.208 -.202 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 29.75 -.51 W32.04 -446.9% Bearish RED -.087 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.54 -.08 23.42 36.1% ---- RED .008 -.057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.19 -.03 W102.61 -42.4% Bearish ---- -.178 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.93 .37 48.33 -13.5% Bearish BLUE -.143 -.161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.47 .2 6.27 221.9% Bullish BLUE .077 .032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 34.04 1.31 W44.32 -1066.5% Bearish BLUE .004 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.18 .51 W22.84 -20.4% Bearish BLUE -.111 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 162.71 6.3 W163.03 196.7% Bearish BLUE -.13 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1051.94 14.16 W1080.6 -18.5% Bearish BLUE .043 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 89.13 .95 W91.33 63.9% Bearish BLUE -.068 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1386.23 46.63 W1442.84 -13.6% Bearish BLUE .016 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 176.41 .3 W185.31 -135.6% Bearish RED -.007 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 228.03 -4.05 225.58 320.5% Bearish RED .018 .133 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 343.8 10.97 340.91 222% Bearish BLUE -.051 .248 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 253.16 3.86 W258.7 80.3% Bullish BLUE .156 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 184.06 -.06 W91.04 25.5% Bearish RED -.003 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 152.29 3.08 W156.41 40% Bearish BLUE -.005 .075Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180212 -------------------------------------- NEWHIGHS 31 NEWLOWS 71 MAXCP 14 MINCP 159 Professionals are in no hurray to play this rally with most stocks. TTTNH 25 TTTNL 359 Day Traders will keep playing fades from higher openings for a while longer. FASTUP 126 FASTDOWN 146 CPCROSSA 69 CPCROSSD 28 BIGVOLUP 7 BIGVODN 9 Dumping has largely stopped.Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180212 ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 25 1 4 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % INDEXES 194 2 1 % ELECTRON 178 2 1 % BIOTECH 386 3 1 % --------------------------------------------------- All other have none...Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/12/18 Bearish = 41 Bullish = 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 .833 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .625 .75 .75 .75 BIGBANKS .571 .285 .285 .571 .571 .285 FOOD .533 .533 .6 .533 .6 .533 HACKERS .52 .48 .36 .4 .36 .36 N=5 ============================================================================================ SOFTWARE .484 .409 .303 .469 .484 .439 DJI-13 .461 .153 .153 .538 .538 .23 RETAIL .452 .528 .396 .66 .622 .452 FINANCE .43 .344 .268 .537 .537 .408 COMODITY .428 .414 .5 .614 .685 .671 PIPELINE .428 .142 .142 .571 .571 .571 BIOTECH .422 .378 .378 .487 .466 .417 MILITARY .421 .315 .368 .421 .473 .447 COAL .4 .1 .4 .3 .4 .4 DOWJONES .4 .266 .2 .466 .466 .3 AUTO .384 .307 .307 .358 .435 .333 INDMATER .377 .211 .2 .4 .433 .388 NASD-100 .37 .38 .3 .48 .55 .44 GAMING .357 .357 .357 .571 .571 .607 MORNSTAR .352 .231 .176 .47 .495 .348 INDEXES .345 .288 .293 .505 .603 .396 INFRA .342 .228 .171 .485 .428 .342 SP500 .34 .276 .222 .457 .482 .377 JETS .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 NIFTY .333 .3 .233 .4 .5 .4 REGBANKS .333 .333 .181 .393 .393 .303 SP-100 .333 .25 .229 .479 .541 .364 RUS-1000 .327 .253 .209 .42 .43 .35 GOLD .313 .215 .235 .274 .372 .431 BEVERAGE .3 .2 .15 .3 .3 .35 TRANSP .3 .3 .3 .5 .45 .4 OILGAS .285 .192 .207 .371 .464 .407 ETFS .268 .223 .149 .402 .656 .507 COMPUTER .26 .217 .26 .26 .347 .304 GREEN .258 .129 .193 .193 .161 .129 CHINA .218 .234 .171 .328 .578 .515 INSURANC .218 .187 .093 .281 .281 .281 ELECTRON .179 .123 .112 .213 .258 .191 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .176 .294 .176 .117 SEMI .169 .107 .1 .192 .238 .176 UTILITY .162 .093 .069 .116 .093 .093 CHEM .161 .096 .08 .258 .274 .177 EDU .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 SOLAR .142 0 .047 .095 .095 .047 REIT .028 .033 .028 .033 .033 .028 BONDFUND 0 0 .018 .018 .009 .018 Bearish = 41
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/9/2018 It is extremely rare for the DJI to drop more 10% from its highs after
just the first Sell S9. The current Buy B15 is not abated. hindered or denied
by the recent Sell S9. But the flat 65-dma and its resistance up to 25000
is apt to be a problem for the rebound which the new B5 and the Futures are
producing. Unless Up-Volume surges dramatically, possibly because
Fed Chairman Powell speaks out dovishly, more basing will probably be needed.
The DJI needs to get back within its normal 3.5% bands and stay there for a
few weeks to show what happened last week was just a aberration. My opinion
is that until all the VIX-related leveraged derivatives are eliminated from the market,
most traders will be nervous and they will be quick to take rebound profits. Others
will use these VIX-related derivatives right up to the very last day that they
are allowed. And as we have seen, these tools are a double-edged sword. They
can cut down share prices very quickly.
It's nice to see that the bulls still have enough fire-power to turn the market around.
The DJI could not be forced down Friday. In the last two hours the key major market
indexes all reversed. Instead of a Buy B19 (two-day reversal day Buy signal),
Peerless gave us a new Buy B5. This is reliably bullish even when it occurs
with the DJI looking quite scary. See all the cases of past B5s below in Table A.
and all the charts of the past B5s. But in the two prior cases when the B5 occurred
below a flat 65-dma, the DJI's recovery was short-lived, could not get past
its 65-dma and needed to build a better base by making more minor lows. Those
were the cases of 1935 and 1956.
The new Buy B5 is bullish. Watch the NYSE A/D Line. It needs to move up,
at least a little. But, the worst of the decline may now be over...unless, of course,
the FED under Chairman Powell is going to more aggressively raise rates or more
aggressively dispose of its $5 trillion in Debt Instruments. Assuming, this is not so,
I would think the market will gradually calm down over the next month. Of course,
there might still be another rogue influence on the market. But I do not see any big
banks about to collapse. It's true that General Electric looks very weak. A plunge
downward by it now would certainly spook the market and that could set off another
leg down in the DJI and SP-500 as all the computerized sell programs again kick in.
So, it looks like the DJI will try to rally the market back up to the 65-dma
now at 24728. That level is likely to offer too much resistance and the DJI
will most likely then need to fall back to 23730 and build a better base
from which to rally. That would also give the market time to show that the
recent volatility is subsiding. That would give the DJI time to come back
within its normal 3.5% bands and rally after then testing its lower 3.5% band.
perhaps like occurred in October-November 1989. What the DJI does, so
will the NASDAQ, SP-500 and QQQ do. They are all moving in lock-step,
again showing the dominant influence of computerized trading
New Buy B5 CAN reverse S9,
especially when the S9 was first in 10 Months.
Closest Parallels with Now
3/11/1935 - DJI was below a flat 65-dma, DJI needed to drop to new news before rallying above 65-dma.
10/7/1956 - DJI was below a flat 65-dma, DJI needed to drop to new news before rallying above 65-dma.
2/9/2014 - DJI was below a flat 65-dma.
1935
1956
Past Peerless Buy B15s: 1929-2018 Date Signal DJI Gain Paper Loss #1 19281212 B5 266.8 .172 none Key Values .949 -.123 -29 -6 -.004 -535 .048 .103 .37 (type 1) la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- #2 19321101 B5 60.2 .09 none 0 (type 1) .952 -.123 -29 -6 -.004 -535 .048 .103 .37 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ----------------------------------------------------------------------- #3 19330616 B5 89.2 .121 none 0 (type 4) 1.002 .886 85 -36 .092 194 .237 .436 1.41 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #4 19350311 B5 99.4 .356 96.7 -.010 3/14 (type 4) .967 -.093 -47 -2 -.027 -103 .065 -.032 -.130 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #5 19481116 B5 176.2 .023 171.2 -.028 11/30 (type 4) .961 -.538 33 -1 -.114 -88 .154 -.018 -.07 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #6 19551007 B5 458.2 .132 438.6 -.048 10/11 (type 4) .969 -.425 -30 -30 .074 -343 .094 -.005 -.02 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #7 19631122 B5 711.5 .320 none 0 (type 1) .953 -.557 -151 -40 -.141 -1021 .016 -.006 -.03 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #8 19780627 B5 817.31 .107 none 0 (type 4) .970 -.203 -114 3 -.11 -1 .072 .08 .28 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #9 19860717 B5 1781.78 .032 1769.97 -.005 8/4 (type 4) .963 -.539 -83 +29 -.034 -11 .151 -.016 -.06 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #10 19870414 B5 2253.98 .039 2230.54 -.010 4/27 (type 4) .966 .028 -203 -48 .108 -17 .213 .121 .42 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #11 19880328 B5 1998.34 .056 none 0 (type 4) .964 -.252 -35 -38 .08 -6 .005 .013 -.05 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #12 19891013 B5 2569.26 .094 perfect 0 (type 1) .947 -.419 -73 -36 .007 -7 .143 .014 .05 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #13 20090623 B5 8322.91 .237 perfect 0 (type 4) .968 .063 36 -14 .011 -115 .032 .143 .48 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- #14 20111123 B5 11257.55 .075 none 0 (type 1) .946 -.449 -153 -17 .001 -152 .042 .007 .02 la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ---------------------------------------------------------------------- N=14 Avg.=13.2% Median Gain = 10.5% Avg Paper Loss=0.7% ====================================================================== 20180209 B5 24190.90 (type 4) .941 -.545 -314 57 .003 -127 .139 .027 .09 lowest lowest highest la/ma aroc P p-cha IP21 V-I OP 65d-up 65-aroc ----------------------------------------------------------------------
What Will Boost The DJI To New Highs.
(From our San Diego Tiger User Group Meeting on Saturday.)
Charts 2/9/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/9/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/09/18Only 2 of these closed above their 5-dma pivot points: Dollar (UUP and Wheat) Only Wheat shows rising Closing Powers, but RETL, UUP, MSFT, NVDA, BA, GS and HD have closed above they 5-dma pivot-points.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 242.03 3.36 W243.27 -261.2% Bearish BLUE .015 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6874.49 97.33 W6967.53 -260.6% Bearish BLUE -.006 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 261.5 3.87 W263.93 -261.5% Bearish BLUE -.013 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 156.1 2.65 W158.12 -266.4% Bearish BLUE -.041 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 331.03 3.63 W335.52 -256.8% Bearish BLUE .017 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 146.77 1.33 W147.92 -236.4% Bearish ---- -.016 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 63 2.49 W65.03 -878.7% Bearish ---- .086 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 34 .69 32.54 -318.6% Bearish BLUE .112 .087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 133.44 11.14 W136.02 -836.1% Bearish BLUE -.038 -.205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 107.03 5.52 W109.47 -779.6% Bearish BLUE -.09 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 105.67 .81 W107.18 -297.9% Bearish BLUE -.005 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 124.77 -.21 W126.71 -64.5% Bearish BLUE -.085 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.43 -.15 W7.09 -617.8% Bearish RED -.045 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 23.84 -.36 W25.8 -582.1% Bearish RED -.145 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 16.55 -.3 W20.26 -1423.3% Bearish RED -.211 -.245 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.26 -.72 W32.56 -469.8% Bearish RED -.103 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.62 .02 23.37 74.6% Bullish ---- .032 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.22 -.18 W03.06 0% Bearish BLUE -.164 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.56 1 W49.06 -135.8% Bearish BLUE -.181 -.154 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.27 -.1 6.19 15.9% Bullish RED .052 .024 rising --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.73 -.01 W42.13 -1571.5% Bearish BLUE -.009 -.105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.67 .14 W22.27 -293% Bearish ---- -.096 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 156.41 1.26 W156.49 -128.7% Bearish RED -.166 -.112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1037.78 36.26 W1055.8 -349.7% Bearish BLUE .057 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 88.18 3.17 88 -201.9% Bearish BLUE -.063 .023 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1339.6 -10.9 W1390 -321.3% Bearish RED .005 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 176.11 4.53 W181.26 -389.9% Bearish BLUE -.041 -.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 232.08 14.56 213.7 -32.2% Bearish RED .04 .086 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 332.83 3.17 328.88 -237% Bearish RED -.041 .226 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 249.3 2.95 249.11 -211.2% ---- RED .163 .026 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 184.12 2.9 183.11 -261.8% Bearish BLUE .065 .027 bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 149.21 3.22 W151.08 -270.5% Bearish BLUE .007 .058Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180209
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 28
NEWLOWS 171
MAXCP 16
MINCP 381
TTTNH 36
TTTNL 806
FASTUP 73
FASTDOWN 485
CPCROSSA 60
CPCROSSD 34
BIGVOLUP 1
BIGVODN 45Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = Date = 2018.02.09 ------------------------------------------------ No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------ HACKERS 25 2 8 % SOFTWARE 66 2 3 % INDEXES 194 3 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % ELECTRON 177 1 1 % BIOTECH 386 2 1 % =================================================== All the rest have none. Monday, we may have to switch to showing the percent of SECTORS at new 12-month lows.Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/9/18 Bullish = 42 Bearish = 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL .833 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .625 .75 .75 .75 .875 FOOD .533 .6 .533 .6 .466 .733 RETAIL .528 .396 .66 .622 .49 .698 N=4 ========================================================================================== HACKERS .48 .36 .4 .36 .36 .6 COMODITY .414 .5 .614 .685 .657 .771 SOFTWARE .409 .303 .469 .484 .439 .712 NASD-100 .38 .3 .48 .55 .44 .69 BIOTECH .378 .378 .487 .466 .419 .536 GAMING .357 .357 .571 .571 .607 .714 FINANCE .344 .268 .537 .537 .419 .774 JETS .333 .333 .333 .333 .333 .555 REGBANKS .333 .181 .393 .393 .333 .696 AUTO .325 .325 .375 .45 .35 .6 MILITARY .315 .368 .421 .473 .447 .736 NIFTY .3 .233 .4 .5 .4 .666 TRANSP .3 .3 .5 .45 .4 .75 INDEXES .288 .293 .505 .603 .402 .824 BIGBANKS .285 .285 .571 .571 .285 .857 SP500 .276 .222 .457 .482 .381 .645 DOWJONES .266 .2 .466 .466 .333 .733 RUS-1000 .253 .209 .42 .43 .354 .608 SP-100 .25 .229 .479 .541 .375 .77 CHINA .234 .171 .328 .578 .515 .64 MORNSTAR .231 .176 .47 .495 .365 .752 INFRA .228 .171 .485 .428 .371 .571 ETFS .223 .149 .402 .656 .507 .865 COMPUTER .217 .26 .26 .347 .304 .652 GOLD .215 .235 .274 .372 .431 .49 INDMATER .211 .2 .4 .433 .4 .566 BEVERAGE .2 .15 .3 .3 .35 .6 OILGAS .192 .207 .371 .464 .407 .514 INSURANC .187 .093 .281 .281 .281 .562 HOMEBLDG .176 .176 .294 .176 .117 .235 DJI-13 .153 .153 .538 .538 .307 .692 EDU .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 PIPELINE .142 .142 .571 .571 .571 .571 GREEN .129 .193 .193 .161 .129 .483 ELECTRON .118 .107 .209 .254 .186 .389 SEMI .107 .1 .192 .238 .184 .33 COAL .1 .4 .3 .4 .4 .5 CHEM .095 .079 .253 .269 .174 .349 UTILITY .093 .069 .116 .093 .093 .162 REIT .033 .028 .033 .033 .028 .067 BONDFUND 0 .018 .018 .009 .018 .018 SOLAR 0 .047 .095 .095 .047 .142 N=42
==============================================================================
2/8/2018 How do we explain today's 1000-point decline? Strictly speaking, right
after the DJI, SPY and the NASDAQ broke their 65-day moving averages,
numerous computerized Sell programs were triggered. All this was just too much
highly leveraged selling on down-ticks for buyers to be found except when the
DJI had fallen exactly 10% from its highs. We closed at the key support.
Now the Futures are bouncing up a bit. But recent rallies have shown an over-whelming
tendency to fail and all the leveraged tools to sell short on down-ticks are
sure to be employed again when the rally peters out. So be very careful.
There's another explanation for the current sell-off. Wall Street is a "cry-baby".
(Read about the 1907 Crash, for example, and how JM Morgan and Rockefeller
threatened President Theodore Roosevelt with a market panic and recession if
he did not cease his plans to break up the biggest Steel and Banking trusts of the
day. Or read how President Kennedy's threats against US Steel started the 1962
bear market even before the Cuban Missile Crisis). Wall Street is simply whining for
more of the mother's milk of Federal Reserve subsidies. Unfortunately, the Fed seems
loathe now to oblige. It says it is committed to 3 rate hikes in 2018.
So, hold onto your hats (and your cash), this elevator acts like an Express
going down. It's stopped at the 10% down level today, but the Street
level is 20% down from the highs and below that is a very dark bear market-
basement. Exaggeration? I hope so. But the simple truth is that this extreme
volatility now makes the market very risky to be long. When the volatility
returns to normal we can more safely go long again.
The TigerSoft Volatility Index here simply shows the
daily percent change and plots a 10-dma. of it.
This much downside volatility usually occurs
at the start of a bear market or a much deeper
correction than we have seen so far. More on this
Sunday.
I think that it's highly significant that the VIX-related hedging
may be taken away from traders next month. These tools are suddenly
in too much demand and way too hot to safely handle. Just
by themselves, they can make a 1000 stocks plunge 10% in two hours.
Perhaps, even more. History shows that the NYSE, SEC and FED
are not willing to curb the use of leverage derivatives, because
Wall Street keeps insisting on them despite their dangers to the
whole system. So, my advise is watch out BELOW if the
10%-down support gives way.
( https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=rXx9WoOOIMeP0gKEpr34CA&q=vix+volatility+etf+to+be+abolished&oq=vix+volatility+etf+to+be+abolished&gs_l=psy-ab.3...2904.30147.0.30461.46.34.5.7.7.0.109.2610.33j1.34.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..0.43.2508...0j46j0i131k1j0i46k1j0i10k1j0i22i30k1j33i22i29i30k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.0.Ew5nLxBUbGc )
Why Should We Trust A Bounce?
What happens if the DJI fails to hold here? All this volatility is new and extremely
dangerous. The misgivings I reported about the Buy B19 seem justified. I would
formally withdraw the recent Buy B19 (because of the 30:1 down-volume to
up-volume ratio on the day before the signal.) and consider the Sell S9
not yet reversed.
True the DJI is down 10%. But the Federal Reserve offers no reassurances
of support if there is more weakness. That is what Wall Street wants to hear.
Without such FED guarantees of injections of new money into the market via the
big Banks, there is way too much risk. This is a bull market going on nine years old.
People are rightly nervous. It will not take much more price weakness to cause
another wave of selling, some of it by computers and some of it by investors
who want to grab their profits while they still can. Most of us have been schooled
into thinking that it was the Fed more than anything else that gave us the long bull market.
Now they may be able to take it all away. As a result, Wall Street now bears the
burden on proof that its can be safely weaned away from Federal Reserve largesse
without tantrum and a dangerous panic. The evidence, so far this month, given how
many ways there are to hedge with leveraged short ETFs, is that Wall Street
cannot easily abide the withdrawal of virtually free FED money.
So stay short lots of our Bearish MINCPs. Limit your long exposure until the market
calms down, to the best Bullish MAXCPs that still show a "bullish" rated Closing Power.
Above all, be very wary of overnight trading traps and remember how sell-offs on
Fridays very often spill-over dramatically to Mondays.
Another Peerless Change
Peerless will now have be revised so that no B19s (two day reversals) are
allowed when the first day (the down day) has 30 times more
down-volume on NYSE than up-volume and the DJI is still not down
at least 5.5% from the 21-dma When a B19 occurs with this much
downside volume, we so not want to "chase" and deploy the B19
when there is no "headroom".
The only case where there was this much downside selling on the first
day of the B19 pair of days was in October 1997. As you can see just
below the the successful B19 there occurred at a lower level in relation
to the 21-dma, there was less an increase in volatility than now and
the DJI still had to fall to 13.5% below its peak. If we take this case
as a model, there should be more of a decline than just to the 10%
"correction" level. Accordingly, the revised Peerless code will allows
a very lop-sided first day down IF it occurs with the DJI closing on the
second day below the 5% lower band. (More information on this
Sunday.)
1997's B10 Worked but at a lower level
and only when volatility calmed down.
Charts 2/8/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/8/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/08/18Only 2 of these closed above their 5-dma pivot points: Dollar (UUP and Wheat) Only 2 show rising Closing Powers: These are the leaders: Dollar (UUP and Wheat)ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 238.67 -10.09 254.93 -456.2% Bearish RED -.051 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6777.16 -274.82 7240.95 -425.5% Bearish RED .037 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 257.63 -10.04 275.45 -441% Bearish RED -.059 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 153.45 -6.76 164.61 -446.1% Bearish RED -.086 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 327.4 -11.12 348.38 -409.8% Bearish RED -.057 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 145.44 -4.4 153.83 -376.3% Bearish RED -.054 -.046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 60.51 -7.42 74.82 -1349.6% Bearish RED .052 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 33.31 -3.33 36.22 -841.9% Bearish RED .105 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 122.3 -17.72 157.03 -1625.1% Bearish RED -.091 -.271 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 101.51 -12.53 124.76 -1469.6% Bearish RED -.147 -.131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 104.86 -4.55 112.14 -413% Bearish RED -.061 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 124.98 .19 126.39 -122.4% Bearish BLUE -.082 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.58 -.21 7.29 -589.2% Bearish RED -.025 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 24.2 -1.19 26.83 -722.2% Bearish RED -.158 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 16.85 -2.36 22.21 -1964.8% Bearish RED -.338 -.218 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 30.98 -.36 33.27 -421.9% Bearish RED -.083 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.6 0 23.27 100.6% Bullish BLUE .03 -.036 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.4 .09 102.22 -9.8% Bearish BLUE -.113 -.05 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 47.56 -.54 49.88 -272.8% Bearish RED -.239 -.165 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.37 -.07 6.25 47.7% Bullish ---- .207 .04 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 32.74 -4.98 45.45 -1713.5% Bearish RED -.046 -.081 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 21.53 -.61 22.98 -441.7% Bearish RED -.134 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 155.15 -4.39 160.5 -391.1% Bearish RED -.196 -.121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1001.52 -47.06 1111.9 -760.3% Bearish RED .009 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 85.01 -4.6 91.78 -508.3% Bearish RED -.125 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1350.5 -66.28 1429.95 -139.7% Bearish RED -.001 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 171.58 -8.6 190.28 -578.2% Bearish RED -.081 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 217.52 -11.28 233.52 -503% ---- RED .041 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 329.66 -18.46 348.91 -395.6% ---- RED -.057 .229 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 246.35 -10.75 260.04 -498.8% ---- RED .142 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 181.22 -10.07 193.97 -486.8% Bearish RED -.004 .028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 145.99 -8.35 157.49 -519.8% Bearish RED -.031 .052Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 2018.02.08
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 17
NEWLOWS 363
MAXCP 12
MINCP 596 Professionals are much more bearish than bullish.
TTTNH 30
TTTNL 473 Day traders quickly switched to selling on weakness.
FASTUP 75
FASTDOWN 1000+ Dumping in abundant evidence.
CPCROSSA 15
CPCROSSD 362 Professionals quickly switched to new selling.
BIGVOLUP 7
BIGVODN 63 Dumping ratio is 9:1. Urgent need felt to sell.
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = Date = 2018.02.08 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------ INDEXES 194 13 7 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % ------------------------------------------------ The other have none. Monday, we have to switch to showing the percent of SECTORS at new 12-month lows.
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/8/18 Bullish = 3 Bearish = 42 Almost every group has most of its stocks below the resistance of its 65-dma. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIG MILITARY 100% 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .625 .75 .75 .75 .875 1 FOOD .6 .533 .6 .466 .733 .8 =========================================================================================== COMODITY .5 .614 .685 .657 .771 .828 ============================================================================================ COAL .4 .3 .4 .4 .5 .6 RETAIL .396 .66 .622 .49 .698 .754 BIOTECH .378 .487 .466 .419 .541 .585 MILITARY .368 .421 .473 .447 .71 .763 HACKERS .36 .4 .36 .36 .6 .64 GAMING .357 .571 .571 .607 .714 .785 JETS .333 .333 .333 .333 .555 .777 AUTO .325 .375 .45 .35 .6 .75 SOFTWARE .303 .469 .484 .439 .696 .757 NASD-100 .3 .48 .55 .44 .69 .79 TRANSP .3 .5 .45 .4 .75 .8 INDEXES .293 .505 .603 .402 .824 .927 BIGBANKS .285 .571 .571 .285 .857 .857 FINANCE .268 .537 .537 .419 .774 .817 COMPUTER .26 .26 .347 .304 .652 .608 GOLD .235 .274 .372 .431 .47 .764 NIFTY .233 .4 .5 .4 .666 .766 SP-100 .229 .479 .541 .375 .77 .843 SP500 .222 .457 .482 .381 .645 .756 RUS-1000 .209 .42 .43 .354 .609 .721 OILGAS .207 .371 .464 .407 .514 .692 DOWJONES .2 .466 .466 .333 .733 .866 INDMATER .2 .4 .433 .4 .555 .677 GREEN .193 .193 .161 .129 .483 .548 REGBANKS .181 .393 .393 .333 .696 .787 HOMEBLDG .176 .294 .176 .117 .235 .352 MORNSTAR .176 .47 .495 .365 .756 .861 CHINA .171 .328 .578 .515 .656 .718 INFRA .171 .485 .428 .371 .571 .742 DJI-13 .153 .538 .538 .307 .692 .846 BEVERAGE .15 .3 .3 .35 .6 .8 ETFS .149 .402 .656 .507 .865 .925 EDU .142 .142 .142 .142 .142 .285 PIPELINE .142 .571 .571 .571 .571 .714 ELECTRON .112 .213 .258 .191 .382 .483 SEMI .1 .192 .238 .184 .323 .438 INSURANC .093 .281 .281 .281 .562 .625 CHEM .078 .25 .265 .171 .328 .546 UTILITY .069 .116 .093 .093 .162 .232 SOLAR .047 .095 .095 .047 .142 .238 REIT .028 .033 .033 .028 .073 .112 BONDFUND .018 .018 .009 .018 .018 .036 =============================================================================================
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
2/7/2018 The DJI and NASDAQ held above their 65-dma today. But we see
in Table 1 nearly all the key ETFs and stocks we follow each night are still
below their falling 5-day moving averages and pivot points AND show
bearish Closing Power 21-day trends. The Futures have just turned weak
again. This is troublesome.
If the 65-dma for the DJI and NASDAQ again can hold the DJI up, look for
the operative B19 to bring a rebound led by the leading stocks listed just below.
Their job will be to hold the market up. A great deal is at stake for Wall Street
and for the Administration. But the rise in interest rates is ominous and the
contagion of fear in the Utilities, REITs and Bond funds is spreading much more
widely. Stick with the short MINCPs, for sure.
Make no mistake about it, the broader market has been hit hard.
There are 3x more sectors with the majority of their stocks below the resistance
of their 65-dma than than sectors with most of their stocks holding above this
key support. This means that we should require more proof that the market has found
reliable support. And even if there is a rally, after a few days up, expect it to be
narrow and soon bring another test of the rising 65-dma.
It is the job now of the leading stocks below to rise up to and then get past
the resistance of the 5-day ma pivot points, as shown below. Watch them.
Understand that any strength they show may only be a costume to maintain
the appearance that all is well with this 9 year old bull market
Market Leaders:
2/6 Warning 5-dma Closing Candle IP21 ITRS
below 5-dma AROC Power Stick
FB 180.18 -5.13 W193.09 -179.1% Bullish RED -.022 -.071
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NVDA 228.8 3.22 W240.5 -366.7% Bullish RED .142 -.002
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 348.12 7.21 W356.94 -90.3% Bullish BLUE .023 .253
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 257.1 -1.6 W272.23 -206.2% Bullish BLUE .183 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 191.29 .25 W199.9 -248% Bullish BLUE .075 .054
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bear Markets usually start only after there have been several sets of
Peerless Sells S9s. A single S9 only sets the stage for a bigger decline
a few months later. I've counted 22 first S9s in 8 months. Only in
case, 7/1/1998, did the DJI fall more than 10%. So, the odds are
very good that the DJI will not drop below its recent intra-day lows
before there are more new highs and subsequent Sell S9s.
What To Do
I see no reason to cover any of the Bearish MINCP stocks, but now
would go long a few of the Bullish MAXCPs. These have held up
and should show more strength if a rising DJI and NASDAQ can bolster
confidence. At least, that is in the minds of the Professionals who pushed
up their Closing Powers to new highs.
Charts 2/7/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/7/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/07/18Only 3 of the 31 items below closed above their 5-dma pivot points. Only WEAT and the Dollar (UUP) are above their 5-dma Only 7 show rising Closing Powers: These are the leaders: FB, NVDA, BA, GS and HD Expect the pivot-points to be resistance levels, from which prices may fall back in order to re-test support.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.76 -.2 W261.62 -249.6% ---- BLUE .062 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7051.98 -63.9 W7385.86 -248.8% ---- RED .09 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 267.67 -1.46 W281.58 -259.3% Bearish RED .023 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 160.21 -2.1 W167.96 -279.4% ---- RED .003 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 338.52 -.42 W355.54 -237.7% Bearish BLUE .028 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.84 .15 W156.85 -213.2% Bearish BLUE 0 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.93 -.06 W79.7 -741.8% ---- BLUE .115 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 36.64 1.17 W39.38 -553.4% ---- BLUE .138 .243 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 140.02 -9.98 W171.34 -1074.8% Bearish RED -.051 -.239 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 114.04 -4.75 W137.02 -909.3% Bearish RED -.097 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.41 .05 W113.98 -209.7% Bullish BLUE .03 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 124.79 -.59 W128.07 -112.7% Bearish RED -.057 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 6.79 -.26 W7.42 -311.7% ---- RED .04 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.39 -.8 W28.02 -385.3% Bearish RED -.092 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 19.21 -1.68 W25.33 -1281.5% Bearish RED -.232 -.201 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 31.34 -.7 W33.73 -345% ---- RED -.019 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.6 .18 23.13 75.1% Bullish BLUE -.006 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.31 -.3 W102.6 -48.2% Bearish RED -.217 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.1 -.23 W50.24 -295.7% Bearish RED -.219 -.196 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.44 .17 6.31 95.7% Bullish BLUE .236 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 37.72 -6.6 W47.63 -1315.8% ---- RED .006 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.14 -.7 W23.54 -293.2% Bearish RED -.026 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 159.54 -3.49 W167.78 -242% Bearish RED -.14 -.145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1048.58 -32.02 W1167.7 -543.1% ---- RED .081 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 89.61 -1.72 W94.26 -293.2% Bearish RED -.066 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1416.78 -26.06 1390 -120% ---- RED .071 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 180.18 -5.13 W193.09 -179.1% Bullish RED -.022 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 228.8 3.22 W240.5 -366.7% Bullish RED .142 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 348.12 7.21 W356.94 -90.3% Bullish BLUE .023 .253 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 257.1 -1.6 W272.23 -206.2% Bullish BLUE .183 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 191.29 .25 W199.9 -248% Bullish BLUE .075 .054 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 154.34 -2.07 W162.24 -267.1% Bearish RED .031 .067Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = Date = 180207 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % HACKERS 25 1 4 % FINANCE 93 2 2 % SOFTWARE 66 1 2 % BIOTECH 386 6 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % INDEXES 194 2 1 % ELECTRON 178 1 1 % ------------------------------------------------ The others have none.Table 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/7/18There are 3x more sectors with the majority of their stocks below than their 65-dma than the 11 sectors where the majority are above their 65-dma.Bullish = 11 Bearish = 34 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .75 .875 1 1 RETAIL .66 .622 .49 .698 .754 .792 COMODITY .614 .685 .657 .771 .828 .785 BIGBANKS .571 .571 .285 .857 .857 .857 GAMING .571 .571 .607 .714 .785 .785 PIPELINE .571 .571 .571 .571 .714 .714 DJI-13 .538 .538 .307 .692 .846 .769 FINANCE .537 .537 .419 .774 .817 .806 FOOD .533 .6 .466 .733 .8 .6 INDEXES .505 .603 .402 .824 .927 .927N = 11 ============================================================================================= TRANSP .5 .45 .4 .75 .8 .85 ============================================================================================= BIOTECH .487 .466 .419 .541 .582 .585 INFRA .485 .428 .371 .571 .742 .771 NASD-100 .48 .55 .44 .69 .79 .83 SP-100 .479 .541 .375 .77 .843 .864 MORNSTAR .47 .495 .365 .756 .861 .869 SOFTWARE .469 .484 .439 .696 .757 .757 DOWJONES .466 .466 .333 .733 .866 .833 SP500 .457 .482 .381 .645 .75 .779 MILITARY .421 .473 .447 .71 .763 .763 RUS-1000 .42 .43 .354 .609 .719 .735ETFS .402 .656 .507 .865 .925 .94 HACKERS .4 .36 .36 .6 .64 .6 INDMATER .4 .433 .4 .555 .677 .722 NIFTY .4 .5 .4 .666 .766 .766 REGBANKS .393 .393 .333 .696 .787 .696 AUTO .375 .45 .35 .6 .75 .775 OILGAS .375 .468 .404 .51 .695 .695 JETS .333 .333 .333 .555 .777 .666 CHINA .328 .578 .515 .656 .718 .765 BEVERAGE .3 .3 .35 .6 .75 .75COAL .3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .7 HOMEBLDG .294 .176 .117 .235 .352 .352 INSURANC .281 .281 .281 .562 .625 .625 GOLD .274 .372 .431 .47 .764 .764 COMPUTER .26 .347 .304 .652 .608 .608 CHEM .25 .265 .171 .328 .546 .593 ELECTRON .213 .258 .191 .382 .483 .455 GREEN .193 .161 .129 .483 .548 .516 SEMI .192 .238 .184 .323 .438 .43 EDU .142 .142 .142 .142 .285 .285UTILITY .116 .093 .093 .162 .232 .279 SOLAR .095 .095 .047 .142 .238 .238 REIT .033 .033 .028 .073 .112 .162 BONDFUND .018 .009 .018 .018 .036 .027 N = 34The Era of Easy Money Is Ending, and the World Is Bracing for Shocks
==============================================================================
2/6/2018 Crazy Computerized Trading! I'd blame them but that's what we are using, too,
though I hope with some added human judgment, experience and perspective.
But there's more to this decline than program trading. See how the Utilities are
falling and short-term rates made a new recovery high today. Most of the major
ETFs and market leading stocks still show falling 5-day moving averages. Now 3/4
of the 46 sectors shown in Table 4 have more stocks below than above the
broken support of their 65-dma. For all 6000 stocks and ETFs we follow
only 37% are above that key support. This means momentum is still down
and there will be considerable resistance overhead if he the market does rally.
I suspect the market is waiting to hear from Powell. I'm not sure it will like
what it hears then. Interestingly, the NY Times is now taking up this theme
of the importance of tighter money. See its lead article tonight.By PETER S. GOODMAN
Today Peerless did give a reversing Buy B19.
The B19 was based on a very good day following a very bad day.
Most likely the B19 establishes a trading range market bounded
by 24000 and 27000. Tomorrow watch to see if the DJI can
close above 24693, where its rising 65-dma is. A closing down
more than 220 would rupture the 65-dma and that
could easily set up another decline to 24000. Interestingly,
the DJI tonight did drop 220 points but has recovered from
the support at its 65-dma.
Peerless DJI Chart
The NASDAQ and QQQ bullishly rose
above their 65-dma. They show rising Closing
Powers and lots of blue Accumulation (big money
buying on weakness). They can be bought if they
stay above their 65-dma. Use a Sell stop below
Monday's low.
How Much Should We Trust the New Peerless B19?
Peerless gave a reversing Buy B19 today as the DJI swung back up and gained 567.
Despite this a successful test of Monday's low should be the best place to buy
the major market ETFs. Table A below shows the median gain for a B19 after an S9
is only +2.75% on the DJI and the median paper loss is 1.95%. B19s are much
less powerful when they seek to reverse a S9 than when they reverse other signals
or reinforce an existing Peerless Buy signal. See the most recent study of all B19s.
Did we we have a true reversal today? It was only enough to meet the Buy B19's
minimal requirements, I would say. That means a successful retest of yesterday's
closing of 24345.75 would be more constructive and likely prove a safer place to buy.
All of today's came in the last two hours. Programmed buys kicked in when the
DJI and NASDAQ rose back above their rising 65-dma. The 500+ point rebound
was impressive, but we need to put it in perspective. From Friday high to Monday's
intra-day low, the DJI plunged 2000 points. Secondly, Up Volume on the NYSE
was 4x down volume today. That looks good until, you look back and see that
the Down Volume Monday was 30x greater than Up Volume. Thirdly, Breadth
was not nearly so good today as it was bad Monday. Today the ratio of NYSE
advances to declines was 2183/850 ( 2.57) pales to Monday's ratio of declines to
advances (2739/324 or 8.45).
So, though last last two day's numbers satisfied the minimal Peerless requirements
for a Buy B19 two-day reversal-up, we should, I think be waiting for another
successful test of Monday's closing before acting on the Buy B19 in any significant
way. This conclusion is supported not on the more modest sized average B19
gains when it reversed a Sell S9.
Tables 1-4 below and the chart for all 6000 stocks adds to the caution.
Reversing B19s: 1929-2018 Blue shows the B19 reversed a Sell S9Date DJI Gain Maximum Paper Loss19290314 S9 316.3 .041 319.7 -.0107 3/15 19290327 B19 303.2 .029 299.1 -.0135 4/9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 19300417 S9 294.1 .169 perfect 0 19300506 B19 268.8 .023 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19460110 S9 199.2 .085 206.6 -.0371 2/5 19460218 S6 201.6 .03 none 0 19460221 B19 195.6 .086 186.0 -.049 2/26 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19560404 S5 518.7 .079 521.1 -.0046 4/6 19560409 S2 518.5 .079 none 0 19560529 B19 477.7 .091 475.3 -.005 6/8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19650513 S7 938.9 .075 939.6 -.0007 5/14 19650630 B19 868.04 .135 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19870406 S9 2405.54 .051 perfect 0 19870415 B19 2282.95 .026 2230.54 -.0229 4/27 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19940203 S4 3967.66 .074 none 0 19940405 B19 3675.41 .016 3598.71 -.0208 4/20 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19970929 S12 7991.43 .062 8178.31 -.0233 10/7 19971028 B19 7598.32 .225 7381.67 -.0285 10/30 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20020719 S13 8019.26 -.021 none 0 20020724 B19 8191.29 .064 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20040220 S19 10619.03 .036 10678.1 -.0055 3/1 20040312 B19 10240.08 .031 10048.2 -.0187 3/24 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20050308 S4 10912.47 .064 none 0 20050421 B19 10218.6 .133 10070.3 -.0145 4/28 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20080102 S14 13043.96 .059 none 0 20080123 B19 12270.17 .023 11740.1 -.0431 3/10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20090106 S12 9015.1 .087 none 0 20090121 B19 8228.1 -.01 8077.56 -.0182 1/23 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20120321 S1 13124.62 .024 13264.4 -.0106 4/2 20120411 B19 12805.39 .037 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20130604 S19 15177.54 .027 15318.2 -.0092 6/18 20130625 B19 14760.31 .047 none 0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20130715 S5 15484.26 .034 15658.3 -.0112 8/2 20130822 B19 14963.74 .015 14776.1 -.0125 8/27 ======================================================================= All Cases: Avg Gain = 6.01% Median Gain = 3.4% Avg Paper Loss = 1.54% Median Paper Loss = 1.4% B19s after S9: Avg Gain = 4.1% Median Gain = 2.75% Avg Paper Loss = 2.3% Median Paper Loss = 1.9%
Charts 2/6/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/6/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/06/18Only UUP (Dollar is above its 5-dma pivot-point. Only UUP, BA and AMZN show a rising 5-dma. 13 rising Closing Powers and 12 falling Closing PowersETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 248.96 5.69 W261.44 -227.4% ---- BLUE .115 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7115.88 148.35 W7411.48 -196.8% Bullish BLUE .261 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 269.13 5.2 W281.9 -228% Bearish BLUE .102 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 162.31 4.19 W169.4 -192.8% Bullish BLUE .122 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 338.94 3.42 W355 -239.4% Bearish BLUE .09 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 149.69 1.77 W156.36 -242.5% Bearish BLUE .017 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 67.99 2.96 W78.8 -645.5% ---- BLUE .166 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 35.47 2.93 W40.72 -840.1% ---- BLUE .172 .187 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 150 13.98 W173.91 -605.3% ---- BLUE .02 -.16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 118.79 9.32 W136.84 -578.1% Bearish BLUE -.024 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 109.36 2.18 W114.08 -306.5% ---- BLUE .029 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 125.38 -1.33 W127.65 -55.9% Bearish RED -.023 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.05 -.04 W7.24 -82.9% Bullish ---- .092 .073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 26.19 .39 W27.46 -278% Bearish BLUE .049 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 20.89 .63 W25.04 -969.8% Bearish BLUE -.146 -.127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.04 -.52 W33.62 -156.4% Bullish RED .051 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.42 .05 23.25 30.1% Bearish RED -.052 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.61 -.45 W103.3 -32.1% Bearish RED -.193 -.094 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 48.33 -.73 W51.04 -214.4% Bearish RED -.143 -.192 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.27 .08 W6.32 -119.1% Bullish BLUE .173 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 44.32 2.19 W49.79 -395.9% ---- BLUE .089 .114 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.84 .57 W23.49 -90.9% ---- BLUE .06 -.044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 163.03 6.54 W167.43 -120.2% Bearish BLUE -.109 -.127 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1080.6 24.8 W1169.94 -366.4% Bullish BLUE .148 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 91.33 3.33 W95.01 -76.3% Bullish BLUE -.015 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1442.84 52.84 W1450.89 17.7% Bullish BLUE .139 .189 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 185.31 4.05 W186.89 -48.2% Bullish BLUE .036 -.034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 225.58 11.88 W245.8 -364.3% Bullish BLUE .178 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 340.91 12.03 W354.37 46.3% Bullish BLUE .033 .227 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 258.7 9.59 W267.89 -194.2% Bullish BLUE .181 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 191.04 7.93 W200.9 -274.8% Bullish BLUE .077 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 156.41 5.33 W162.78 -230.5% Bearish BLUE .107 .075Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180206
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 20
NEWLOWS 156 Dangerously high when this close to a DJI high.
MAXCP 66 MINCP 73 Pros are still more bearish than bullish.TTTNH 95 TTTNL 138 Pros are shorting openings, stillFASTUP 66 FASTDOWN 466 More downside trader plays.CPCROSSA 479 CPCROSSD 31BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 58 Dumping continues.Table 3 - Quite dismal! Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180206 No. NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- HACKERS 25 1 4 % MILITARY 38 1 3 % SOFTWARE 66 1 2 % BIOTECH 386 7 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % INDEXES 194 2 1 % All others no highsTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/6/18 Bullish = 15 Bearish = 30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .75 .875 1 1 1 COMODITY .685 .657 .771 .828 .785 .8 ETFS .656 .507 .865 .925 .94 .94 RETAIL .622 .49 .698 .754 .792 .83 INDEXES .603 .402 .824 .927 .927 .932 FOOD .6 .466 .733 .8 .6 .6 CHINA .578 .515 .656 .718 .765 .734 BIGBANKS .571 .285 .857 .857 .857 .857 GAMING .571 .607 .714 .785 .785 .785 PIPELINE .571 .571 .571 .714 .714 .714 NASD-100 .55 .44 .69 .79 .83 .82 SP-100 .541 .375 .77 .843 .864 .885 DJI-13 .538 .307 .692 .846 .769 .923 FINANCE .537 .419 .774 .817 .806 .817 N=15 =========================================================================================== NIFTY-30 .5 .4 .666 .766 .766 .733 =========================================================================================== MORNSTAR .495 .365 .756 .861 .869 .873 SOFTWARE .484 .439 .696 .757 .757 .727 SP500 .482 .381 .645 .75 .777 .787 MILITARY .473 .447 .71 .763 .763 .815 OILGAS .468 .404 .51 .695 .695 .702 BIOTECH .466 .419 .541 .582 .582 .637 DOWJONES .466 .333 .733 .866 .833 .9 AUTO .45 .35 .6 .75 .775 .875 TRANSP .45 .4 .75 .8 .85 .85 INDMATER .433 .4 .555 .677 .722 .766 RUS-1000 .43 .354 .609 .719 .734 .747 INFRA .428 .371 .571 .742 .771 .857 COAL .4 .4 .5 .6 .7 .7 REGBANKS .393 .333 .696 .787 .696 .727 GOLD .372 .431 .47 .764 .764 .725 HACKERS .36 .36 .6 .64 .6 .6 COMPUTER .347 .304 .652 .608 .608 .652 JETS .333 .333 .555 .777 .666 .777 BEVERAGE .3 .35 .6 .75 .75 .8 INSURANC .281 .281 .562 .625 .625 .625 CHEM .265 .171 .328 .546 .593 .578 ELECTRON .258 .191 .382 .483 .455 .483 SEMI .238 .184 .323 .438 .43 .438 HOMEBLDG .176 .117 .235 .352 .352 .411 GREEN .161 .129 .483 .548 .516 .516 EDU .142 .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 SOLAR .095 .047 .142 .238 .238 .238 UTILITY .093 .093 .162 .232 .279 .255 REIT .033 .028 .073 .112 .162 .123 BONDFUND .009 .018 .018 .036 .027 .018 N=30
==============================================================================
2/5/2018 Peerless remains on a Sell S9. This S9 variant in on-going bull markets typically brings a DJI significantly below the lower band. This means there could be much more weakness. Of course, we do have an oversold market. So a rebound could occur. But don't trust it is my advise. Each short-term rally has been sold into and smothered by heavy, impatient selling. Early over-night strength cannot be trusted. The speed of this decline on not very heavy volume, so far, suggests to me the path of least resistance is still down. With the DJI's 65-dma penetrated, it seems likely today's low at 24000 will soon be re-tested and if that does not hold, a decline to 23000 may then be in the cards, and in short order. Below that, who knows? Under 21,000 will be in bear market territory.
I believe the primary reason the market is falling so fast is because the FED is indicating through the mouths of Yellen and Jamie Dimon that it will not step in to support stock prices until it has fallen 15%-20%.
When the DJI dropped below 25000 today, it fell below the 3.5% lower band. The more important support that I had suggested was the rising 65-dma, at approximately 24500. But the high velocity of today's sell-off led to its clear penetration at the close and that has prevented Peerless from getting a reversing Buy signal there. So, for now we have to wait and hold our bearish MINCP short positions. Trading ETFs is much trickier. I would suggest being patient here unless you trade in the Futures market at night. At one point today the DJI was down as much as 1600 points intra-day. If you add to that the 660 points it fell on Friday, we can say that the DJI had has now had a 9% correction in just two days. That is similar to what happened in October 1989. This case proves that itis possible for the DJI to quickly recover after a Sell S9. But see below how the DJI's one-day plunge back then did not even reach its rising 65-dma. (This was a decline that was also triggered by crazy computerized Sell programs plus the failure of a big merger.)
It's my judgment that too much technical damage has been done in our case. Look at the "sea of red" key values in Table 1, at how lopsided the number of negative stocks were today compared to the number of positive stocks (Table 2) and then see in Table 4 that there are now only 7 industry groups with the majority of their stocks still above the support of the 65-dma.
Wanted: Aggressive and Nimble Day Traders Who Like Gambling
If you are a short-term trader, no doubt you will now be tempted to buy QQQ or the
NASDAQ futures as they have only retreated to their rising 65-dma and their
Accumulation Index readings are positive. That's fine buy only if you place a sell stop
just below today's close. This is a risky venture without a Peerless Buy signal.
As in October 1987, it appears that Computerized trading caused today's 1600 point sell-off. But we can't know that for sure. So more caution and patience are needed I would say, especially since the FED is showing that they are in rate-rising mode and not presently willing to come to the rescue of Wall Street. They still wince at all the criticism they got for this back in 2008 and 2009.
There was no particular news to account for today's 1600 point drop. Irrational public selling was not the reason. The Public is still bullish.
Rather the speed of the decline almost certainly owed to crazy computerized hedging using all the clever new leveraged short ETFs, puts and Futures now available. These programs kicked in when support levels, round numbers and key moving averages were penetrated. For now, they may have done their damage. But we just can't be sure there will not be another even bigger selling wave. Stay short and avoid the long side remains my advise.
The last two days' decline is quite reminiscent of what happened on the Friday and Monday in October 1987 Crash. (The major difference between then and now, however, was the the market's bottom then was down a whopping 34% in just 3 weeks. So, this parallel may not hold.)After the Crash in 1987, on the following Tuesday, the DJI jumped up at the Opening but could not make any additional headway and a re-test of the lows soon followed. That was a much better place to buy. I like the idea of buying on a successful re-testing of the lows here, too. See in the chart below how how the DJI needed to retest its 65-dma before its was able to make a recovery in late September 1987 back up to the upper band.Don't Expect The Fed To Save The MarketThe DJI closed today only down a little more than 8% below its recent peak. If this as far down as the DJI will go in February, it would be a very minimal correction. Without Fed intervention or the public assurances of such intervention, the odds favor a deeper decline. What saved Wall Street in October 1987 after its love affair with computerized leveraged hedging almost plunged the market into an abyss of chaos, was Fed Chairman Greenspan's willingness to supply unlimited funds to market makers to stabilize the market. It is not yet clear that Fed Chairman Powell is willing to do this. Janet Yellen told us as she left office, to paraphrase, "Yes, evaluations are excessive, but the Economy is very strong" and she did not foresee any need for a bailout of Wall Street in the event of a correction. Until Powell tells us otherwise, I would assume his Fed will not intervene for now.
Charts 2/5/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/5/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/05/18
We have a sea of red here. Extreme caution advised.ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 243.27 -11.66 W260.62 -400.9% Bearish RED -.002 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 6967.53 -273.42 W7402.48 -338% Bearish RED .246 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 263.93 -11.52 W281.76 -369.1% Bearish RED .005 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 158.12 -6.49 W168.7 -356.2% Bearish RED .026 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 335.52 -12.86 W355.7 -336.9% Bearish RED -.11 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 147.92 -5.91 W157.18 -344.2% Bearish RED -.067 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 65.03 -9.79 W77.7 -963.9% Bearish RED .113 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 32.54 -3.68 W41.88 -1515.6% Bearish RED .151 .122 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 136.02 -21.01 W169.56 -1306% Bearish RED -.061 -.233 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 109.47 -15.29 W133.63 -1047% Bearish RED -.122 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 107.18 -4.96 W116.27 -492.2% Bearish RED -.084 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.71 .32 W126.8 -25.1% ---- RED .058 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.09 -.2 W7.17 -171.4% Bullish RED .129 .134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 25.8 -1.03 W27.7 -414.6% Bearish RED .027 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 20.26 -1.95 W25.48 -1555.4% Bearish RED -.229 -.095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 32.56 -.71 W33.08 -199.9% Bullish RED .099 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.37 .1 23.28 10.8% Bearish ---- -.039 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 103.06 .84 W103.27 -21.8% ---- BLUE -.139 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 49.06 -.82 W50.48 -131.9% Bearish RED -.188 -.153 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.19 -.06 W6.42 -71.2% Bullish ---- .115 -.034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 42.13 -3.32 W48.01 -864.9% Bearish RED .054 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 22.27 -.71 W23.26 -227.3% Bearish RED -.004 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 156.49 -4.01 W166.97 -345.2% Bearish RED -.17 -.128 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1055.8 -56.1 W1163.69 -517.3% ---- RED .088 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 88 -3.78 W92.74 -316.4% Bearish RED -.097 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1390 -39.95 W1437.82 -97.1% ---- RED .088 .188 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 181.26 -9.02 W187.12 -125.1% Bullish RED .001 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 213.7 -19.82 W242.72 -685.3% ---- RED .117 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 328.88 -20.03 W337.71 -171.7% ---- RED -.003 .2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 249.11 -10.93 W268.94 -435.5% Bearish RED .113 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 183.11 -10.86 W201.81 -544.4% Bearish RED .019 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 151.08 -6.41 W163.76 -355.4% Bearish RED .046 .066Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 2018.02.05
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 12
NEWLOWS 657
MAXCP 12
MINCP 833
TTTNH 39
TTTNL 911
FASTUP 74
FASTDOWN 938
CPCROSSA 19
CPCROSSD 226
BIGVOLUP 7
BIGVODN 136Table 3
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/5/18 Bullish = 7 Bearish = 39 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .75 .875 1 1 1 .875 COMODITY .657 .771 .828 .785 .8 .8 GAMING .607 .714 .785 .785 .785 .785 PIPELINE .571 .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 CHINA .515 .656 .718 .765 .75 .75 ETFS .507 .865 .925 .94 .94 .97 N=7 ============================================================================================ RETAIL .49 .698 .754 .792 .83 .867 FOOD .466 .733 .8 .6 .6 .666 MILITARY .447 .71 .763 .763 .815 .789 NASD-100 .44 .69 .79 .83 .82 .85 SOFTWARE .439 .696 .757 .757 .727 .787 GOLD .431 .47 .764 .764 .725 .725 BIOTECH .419 .541 .582 .582 .632 .691 FINANCE .419 .774 .817 .806 .817 .827 OILGAS .404 .51 .695 .695 .702 .773 INDEXES .402 .824 .927 .927 .932 .938 COAL .4 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 INDMATER .4 .555 .677 .722 .766 .788 NIFTY .4 .666 .766 .766 .733 .8 TRANSP .4 .75 .8 .85 .85 .8 SP500 .381 .645 .75 .777 .787 .814 SP-100 .375 .77 .843 .864 .885 .906 INFRA .371 .571 .742 .771 .857 .885 MORNSTAR .365 .756 .861 .869 .873 .894 HACKERS .36 .6 .64 .6 .6 .68 RUS-1000 .354 .609 .719 .734 .75 .776 AUTO .35 .6 .75 .775 .875 .9 BEVERAGE .35 .6 .75 .75 .8 .8 DOWJONES .333 .733 .866 .833 .9 .9 JETS .333 .555 .777 .666 .777 .666 REGBANKS .333 .696 .787 .696 .727 .757 DJI-13 .307 .692 .846 .769 .923 .923 COMPUTER .304 .652 .608 .608 .652 .739 BIGBANKS .285 .857 .857 .857 .857 1 INSURANC .281 .562 .625 .625 .625 .625 ELECTRON .191 .382 .483 .455 .488 .539 SEMI .184 .323 .438 .43 .446 .5 CHEM .171 .328 .546 .593 .578 .64 EDU .142 .142 .285 .285 .285 .285 GREEN .129 .483 .548 .516 .516 .58 HOMEBLDG .117 .235 .352 .352 .411 .47 UTILITY .093 .162 .232 .279 .255 .232 SOLAR .047 .142 .238 .238 .238 .38 REIT .028 .073 .112 .162 .123 .129 BONDFUND .018 .018 .036 .027 .018 .036 N=39
==============================================================================
2/2/2018 Peerless is now on a Sell S9. In on-going bull markets, the original 2007
bull market Sell S9 variant dropped the DJI below the lower band in 7 of 11 past cases when it
would have been applied in January and February. With the DJI not having had a bear market's
18% or more DJI decline since March of 2009, lots of investors are now worried that
a 8.5%-14% correction, at least, is now under way. Certainly, I would expect Friday's very
steady deep decline to spill over to Monday and beyond.
I have added this Sell S9 variation to the regular Peerless. It will be available to Elite Subscribers
on Monday. Here is its track record and its coded requirements.
I suspect the DJI will not rebound much until it reaches its rising 65-dma, about 800 points
below Friday's close. A successful double-test of the rising 65-dma did take place in September
1987, whereon the DJI rallied to its upper band with all negative internals. This is what generated
the October 1987 S9. The DJI then utterly collapsed after the newly appointed Fed Chairman, Alan
Greenspan, went ahead with a rate hike to defend the Dollar.
A comparison of the DJI's recent top now with the one in August 1987 seems appropriate.
Then like now, there had been a long bull market and a correction was also long over-due. Then
like now, the Dollar had turned quite weak and this invited the FED to raise interest rates. Then,
too, we had a new Federal Reserve Chairman. He got his baptism in fire when the stock market
cried like a baby for a hand-out after falling 37% in just two months.
1987 Support at Rising 65-dma
True, our internals are not so negative as in 1987, but certainly the political situation now is much more
divided and dangerous for investors, I would judge. Republicans in 2018 will need to prevent a deep
decline if they wish NOT to lose many Congressional seats in the Fall Election. As of a week ago,
their polls seemed to be rising as the stock market's gains were lifting 401K retirement accounts. But a
serious decline now would change this. The problem now is it's not clear how they can go about the
fiscal pumping up of the market any more. Of course, the FED could provide lot of new liquidity, but
Trump campaigned against this. Even quickly passing a big Infrastructure spending bill may not do
the job if the bond market tanks as a result of Debt and Inflation concerns. Far-sighted investors
have no choice but to be quite cautious now. So should we.
Conclusion: Stay clear of the major market ETFs unless you are already short them.
If you have not already, Sell any stock whose Closing Power uptrends are violated. Add more
bearish MINCPs short sales.
Weaker Openings Now Cannot Be A Good Sign
For years the DJI has been boosted by higher openings. If that pattern changes now, I would
fear this will be a very bad sign for the stock market.
Lower Openings Have Led The DJI Down This Last Week,
Don't Fight This Down-Trend.
"Buy at the Close and Sell at the Opening." (Rising Opening Power and Falling Closing Power)
At long last, the New York Times has finally taken note of our findings. Now that they have,
I would suggest that this Tiger short-term trading technique may no longer work:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html?emc=edit_th_180204&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=58223894
Since SPY's inception in 1993, "all of ...(its) price gain since 1993 has come outside regular trading hours...
If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the
market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain
would be 571 percent. On the other hand, if you had done the reverse, buying the E.T.F. at the first
second of regular trading every morning at 9:30 a.m. and selling at the 4 p.m. close, you would be down
4.4 percent since 1993. "
Charts 2/2/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/2/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180202
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 42
NEWLOWS 256 So many new lows just a week from the DJI's new high is not good.MAXCP 26 MINCP 405 Professionals have turned quite bearish.TTTNH 44 TTTNL 551FASTUP 77 FASTDOWN 515 There is a lot of institutional dumping going on.CPCROSSA 27 CPCROSSD 187BIGVOLUP 5 BIGVODN 50Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180202 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- INDEXES 194 12 6 % RUS-1000 837 52 6 % GAMING 28 1 4 % AUTO 40 1 3 % SOFTWARE 66 2 3 % NASD-100 100 3 3 % BIOTECH 387 8 2 % FINANCE 93 1 1 % MORNSTAR 238 2 1 % SP500 485 5 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % Others: NoneTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 2/2/18 Bullish = 34 Bearish = 11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL .875 1 1 1 .875 .875 ETFS .865 .925 .94 .94 .97 .97 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 1 1 INDEXES .835 .927 .927 .932 .938 .927 FINANCE .774 .817 .806 .817 .827 .827 COMODITY .771 .828 .785 .8 .8 .828 SP-100 .77 .843 .864 .885 .895 .906 MORNSTAR .756 .861 .869 .873 .894 .92 TRANSP .75 .8 .85 .85 .8 .85 DOWJONES .733 .866 .833 .9 .9 .9 FOOD .733 .8 .6 .6 .666 .733 GAMING .714 .785 .785 .785 .785 .821 MILITARY .71 .763 .763 .815 .789 .763 RETAIL .698 .754 .792 .83 .867 .867 REGBANKS .696 .787 .696 .727 .757 .787 SOFTWARE .696 .757 .757 .727 .772 .818 DJI-13 .692 .846 .769 .923 .923 .923 NASD-100 .69 .79 .83 .82 .85 .88 NIFTY .666 .766 .766 .733 .8 .8 CHINA .656 .718 .765 .75 .75 .796 COMPUTER .652 .608 .608 .652 .739 .739 SP500 .645 .75 .777 .787 .812 .845 RUS-1000 .609 .719 .734 .75 .774 .802 AUTO .6 .75 .775 .875 .875 .9 BEVERAGE .6 .75 .75 .8 .8 .85 HACKERS .6 .64 .6 .6 .68 .72 INFRA .571 .742 .771 .857 .885 .942 PIPELINE .571 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 INSURANC .562 .625 .625 .625 .625 .656 INDMATER .555 .677 .722 .766 .8 .855 JETS .555 .777 .666 .777 .666 .666 BIOTECH .542 .583 .583 .633 .687 .697 OILGAS .514 .7 .7 .707 .778 .8 N= 34 ============================================================================================ COAL .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 ============================================================================================ GREEN .483 .548 .516 .516 .58 .548 GOLD .47 .764 .764 .725 .725 .862 ELECTRON .382 .483 .455 .488 .533 .573 CHEM .328 .546 .593 .578 .64 .671 SEMI .323 .438 .43 .446 .5 .553 HOMEBLDG .235 .352 .352 .411 .47 .647 UTILITY .162 .232 .279 .255 .232 .232 EDU .142 .285 .285 .285 .428 .714 SOLAR .142 .238 .238 .238 .38 .333 REIT .073 .112 .162 .123 .129 .179 BONDFUND .018 .036 .027 .018 .036 .081 N=11===============================================================================
===============================================================================
2/1/2018 The evidence from tonight's research is compelling that we should consider a
revised Sell S9 to have occurred on Tuesday's close. See below. There have
been 11 of these revised S9s in January and February in rising markets since 1929.
All 11 brought declines to the lower 3% band. 7 of the 11 brought declines below
the lower 3.5% band. The Futures are already dropping sharply. This probably
has something to do with the necklines of head/shoulders being broken. It has to do with
Trump's political difficulties. But there is a lot more at stake, as I discuss below.
A DJI decline back to its 65-dma and the lower 3% next seems highly likely. There
should be very good support there.
All this week I have suggested we should expect the DJI to retreat from its very
overbought position. In particular, I noted that the recent rally has brought a
gain that more than matches the average gain after a September Buy B21 and
so profits should be taken, rather than be too greedy. The deterioration of
breadth was mentioned as a bearish factor. Monday and Tuesday both were
days when the number of NYSE decliners was more than 4 times the number of
advancers. As a result, on January 30th, the P-I and the V-I turned negative.
Since the DJI closed down at only the 1.3% upper band, no Peerless S9 was given
on January 29th. But back in the days before 2008, Peerless also used its
hypothetical high in relation to the 21-day ma. I believe that is why a Sell S9
using the 2007 version of Peerless was given.
I do not have the source code for the 2007 version of Peerless. But I tested the
following parameters for January and February when the DJI was near its 12 month
highs and not in a bear market:
1) Close/21-dma must be above 1.013
2) Theoretical High/21-dma must be above 1.026
3) P-Indicator must be negative.
4) V-Indicator must be negative.
There were 11 of the 2007-like variations on our classic Sell S9. All brought declines to
at least the 3% lower band. Six saw paper losses, all under 5%. But most significantly,
7 of the 11 produced a DJI decline below the lower 3.5% band.
1) 1/30/1929 312.64 DJI rallied to 322.1 and then fell to lower 3.5% band.
2) 2/28/1929 317.4 DJI fell directly to the lower 3.5% band.
3) 2/15/1935 104.7 DJI rose to 107.2 and then fell to lower 3.5% band.
4) 2/11/1937 190.3 DJI rose to 194.4 (3/10) and then fell below lower 3.5% band.
5) 1/3/1939 153.6 DJI fell directly below lower 3.5% band.
6) 1/9/1946 197.37 DJI rose to 206.6 and then fell below lower 3.5% band.
7) 2/1/1955 409.7 DJI rose to 419.7 and then fell below lower 3.5% band.
8) 1/3/1973 1939 DJI fell directly far below lower 3.5% band.
9) 2/13/1980 903.84 DJI fell directly far below lower 3.5% band.
10) 1/13/1999 9349.55 DJI fell directly to lower 3.0% band.
11) 1/7/2000 11522.56 DJI rose to 11722.98 and then fell far below the 3.5% lower band.
What To Do?
Take profits in longs. Do not let a gain turn into a loss. Sell when the steep Closing Power
uptrends are violated. Sell some of the bearish MINCP stocks short. Because of Boeing's
unduly large impact on the DJI, I am reluctant to suggest shorting DIA.
January's JOBs' Numbers Are Unusually Important
The Fed's postponing a rise in interest rates until March did not help dividend stocks.
Investors again quickly unloaded utilities' stocks, REITs and bond funds Thursday.
The explanation is simple. Rates have been very, very low. Now they will almost
certainly be going up. Trump's tax cuts and increased spending on the military, domestic
security and, possibly, infrastructure has many big investors in bonds really spooked.
But there is a much bigger storm approaching. It has to do with the Trump's wager
on the strong and the power of "trickle-down" economics. What if the Economy does not
get as big a boost as Republicans are expecting from Trump's economic agenda? That
could cause a big turnover in Congressional seats. It conceivably could even cause the
Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives. That has to be on Republican
investors' minds. I believe this is why the DJI, SP-500, Mid-Caps, QQQ and NASDAQ
have all quickly formed compact little head/shoulders price patterns.
If I am right, then tomorrow's Jobs' numbers for January have taken on a special significance.
They wobble and fluctuate, of course, month to month. But anything short of a really good
number, say above 210,000 for new jobs could be politically troublesome. Ordinarily, a
low number, one that is less than 12 months ago and also the previous month,
can sometimes be viewed as a cause for the Fed to delay raising interest rates. But not
only has the Fed largely guaranteed a raise in short-term rates in March, now a low number
of new monthly jobs, below, say 150,000 would mean economic Growth is probably not
good enough to boost Republicans' political fortunes, especially in the Midwest "rust belt".
So tomorrow's January Jobs' numbers will be important for partisans and for the stock
market, too. The new numbers will be reported an hour before the NYSE opens. Below are
current numbers which we will use for comparison.
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 240 89 190 80 143 75 -34 -20 88 84 114 98 2008 17 -84 -78 -210 -186 -162 -213 -267 -450 -474 -766 -694 2009 -793 -702 -823 -687 -349 -471 -329 -213 -220 -204 -2 -275 2010 23 -68 164 243 524 -137 -68 -36 -52 262 119 87 2011 43 189 225 346 77 225 69 110 248 209 141 209 2012 358 237 233 78 115 76 143 177 203 146 132 244 2013 211 286 130 197 226 162 122 261 190 212 258 47 2014 190 151 272 329 246 304 202 230 280 227 312 255 2015 234 238 86 262 344 206 254 157 100 321 272 239 2016 126 237 225 153 43 297 291 176 249 124 164 155 2017 216 232 50 207 145 210 138 208 38 211 252(P) 148(P) P : preliminary
Charts 2/1/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks (new) A/D Line for SP-500 Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ
2/1/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 02/01/18Bullish: Closing Power Rising = 15 Falling = 12Warnings: Below Pivot-Points = 26 of 31 5-dma Falling = 20 Rising = 11ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.62 .18 W265.91 -40.5% Bullish BLUE .226 ------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7385.86 -25.62 W7505.77 -17% Bullish BLUE .307 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.58 -.32 W286.58 -30.3% Bullish BLUE .273 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 167.96 -1.44 W170.93 -11.5% Bullish RED .288 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.54 .54 W362.51 -75.1% ---- BLUE .087 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.85 .49 W159.6 -68.9% ---- BLUE .103 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 79.7 .9 W81.71 -30.7% Bullish BLUE .268 .22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 39.38 -1.34 W45.02 -509.8% ---- RED .253 .264 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 171.34 -2.57 W181.13 169.4% ---- BLUE .141 -.041 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 137.02 .18 W141.15 70.5% Bullish BLUE .214 .132 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 113.98 -.1 W118.04 -113.5% Bullish BLUE .095 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 128.07 .42 *128.07 3.9% Bullish BLUE .125 -.079 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.42 .18 W7.44 89.1% Bullish BLUE .224 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 28.02 .56 W28.72 -115.5% ---- BLUE .241 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 25.33 .29 W29.74 -779% Bearish BLUE -.08 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 33.73 .11 W34.14 3% Bullish ---- .181 -.047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.13 -.12 W23.26 -38.7% Bearish RED .015 -.171 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 102.6 -.7 W103.77 -71.4% Bearish RED -.161 -.155 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 50.24 -.8 W51.04 -75.8% Bearish RED -.144 -.221 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.31 -.01 6.18 183.8% Bullish ---- .147 -.108 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 47.63 -2.16 W53.8 -240% Bullish RED .221 .292 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.54 .05 W23.61 -55.3% Bullish BLUE .3 -.048 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 167.78 .35 W171.51 -98.5% Bearish BLUE -.014 -.135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1167.7 -2.24 W1175.84 -11.4% Bullish BLUE .303 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 94.26 -.75 94.06 103.1% Bullish RED .06 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1390 -60.89 W1402.05 42.5% Bullish RED .194 .109 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 193.09 6.2 190 149.6% Bullish BLUE .108 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 240.5 -5.3 W243.33 85.4% Bullish BLUE .205 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 356.94 2.57 343.22 201.1% Bullish BLUE .068 .24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 272.23 4.34 268.14 59.4% Bullish BLUE .174 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 199.9 -1 W207.23 -134% Bullish BLUE .205 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 162.24 -.54 W167.06 -215.9% Bearish BLUE .135 .071Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180201
---------------------------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 196
NEWLOWS 156
MAXCP 84
MINCP 223
TTTNH 83
TTTNL 281
FASTUP 75
FASTDOWN 237
CPCROSSA 211
CPCROSSD 71
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 21
Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories 2/1/2018 No NHs Pct. ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 4 67 % BIGBANKS 7 2 29 % DJI-13 13 3 23 % MILITARY 38 8 21 % GAMING 28 6 21 % DOWJONES 30 5 17 % FINANCE 93 14 15 % ================================================= EDU 7 1 14 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % COMODITY 70 8 11 % NIFTY 30 3 10 % SP-100 96 10 10 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % NASD-100 100 8 8 % SP500 485 34 7 % RUS-1000 837 52 6 % AUTO 40 2 5 % INDEXES 194 10 5 % MORNSTAR 238 11 5 % TRANSP 20 1 5 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % BIOTECH 387 16 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % ETFS 66 2 3 % CHEM 64 1 2 % SEMI 130 3 2 % SOFTWARE 66 1 2 % INDMATER 90 1 1 % ELECTRON 178 2 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % ==================================================== NONE: GREEN HOMEBLDG HACKERS OILGAS INFRA CHINA SOLAR COMPUTER COAL GOLD RETAIL UTILITY PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUND JETSTable 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
2/1/18Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL 1 1 1 .875 .875 .875 INDEXES .927 .927 .932 .938 .927 .927 ETFS .924 .939 .939 .969 .969 .969 DOWJONES .866 .833 .9 .9 .9 .9 MORNSTAR .861 .869 .873 .894 .92 .911 BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 1 1 1 DJI-13 .846 .769 .923 .923 .923 .923 SP-100 .843 .864 .885 .895 .916 .927 COMODITY .828 .785 .8 .8 .8 .742 FINANCE .817 .806 .817 .827 .827 .849 FOOD .8 .6 .6 .666 .6 .4 TRANSP .8 .85 .85 .8 .85 .8 ========================================================================================== NASD-100 .79 .83 .82 .85 .89 .86 REGBANKS .787 .696 .727 .757 .787 .757 GAMING .785 .785 .785 .785 .821 .857 JETS .777 .666 .777 .666 .666 .666 NIFTY .766 .766 .733 .8 .8 .766 GOLD .764 .764 .725 .725 .862 .823 MILITARY .763 .763 .815 .789 .763 .789 SOFTWARE .757 .757 .727 .772 .818 .742 RETAIL .754 .792 .83 .867 .867 .867 AUTO .75 .775 .875 .875 .9 .875 BEVERAGE .75 .75 .8 .8 .85 .85 SP500 .75 .777 .787 .812 .851 .841 INFRA .742 .771 .857 .885 .942 .914 RUS-1000 .719 .734 .75 .774 .805 .801 CHINA .718 .765 .75 .75 .796 .781 PIPELINE .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 OILGAS .7 .7 .707 .778 .8 .8 INDMATER .677 .722 .766 .8 .855 .855 HACKERS .64 .6 .6 .68 .72 .68 INSURANC .625 .625 .625 .625 .687 .75 COMPUTER .608 .608 .652 .739 .739 .739 COAL .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 BIOTECH .583 .583 .633 .687 .695 .684 GREEN .548 .516 .516 .58 .548 .58 CHEM .546 .593 .578 .64 .671 .671 ============================================================================================ ELECTRON .483 .455 .488 .533 .573 .511 SEMI .438 .43 .446 .5 .553 .469 HOMEBLDG .352 .352 .411 .47 .647 .647 EDU .285 .285 .285 .428 .714 .714 SOLAR .238 .238 .238 .38 .333 .333 UTILITY .232 .279 .255 .232 .232 .209 REIT .112 .162 .123 .129 .179 .235 BONDFUND .036 .027 .018 .036 .081 .099 N= 8
==============================================================================
==============================================================================
1/31/2018 I have suggested doing some profit-taking and waiting for a pullback by the DJI
to buy again. In this way, we can again be positioned long to be consistent with
the still active September Buy B21. That the 10-day Down Volume has risen above the 10-day
Up Volume suggests this seems a good plan. So does the break in the NYSE
A/D Line uptrend, which warns us that interest rates are on the rise. It remains
to be seen if the DJI will decisively break below the near-term support at 25800;
such is the power of an accelerating uptrend. So patience seems warranted as
far as the DJI goes. A continued decline in Crude Oil and oil stocks would contribute
to a bigger DJI sell-off, so watch them now.
Should We Have Gotten an S9 on Tuesday?
An alert subscriber just emailed me, saying that the 2006 version of Peerless would
have given a Sell S9 yesterday. There is no time tonight to back-test it for January
and February. And I lost the source code for this version of Peerless some time ago.
But the current version gives no such Sell S9 and I would trust the current Peerless because
I know how many hours went into back-testing all of its signals. See 2006 version's chart.
Still, tomorrow I will show this old S9's track record for this time of the year. No time
tonight.
I still doubt if rising interest rates are ready to bring a much bigger decline.
The bad breadth on the NYSE, so far, owes mostly to weak dividend plays, bond
funds, REITs and utilities. I would suggest that an economic slow-down is not in the
cards, judging from the still rising A/D Line for the SP-500 stocks shown below.
The leading tech stocks (NVDA, GOOG, MSFT and AMZN) seem not to be
bothered by the prospects of higher interest rates. And so the NASDAQ and
QQQ show very high levels of underlying Accumulation. This suggests ample
support and only a limited pullback at this time. These stocks, QQQ and the
NASDAQ are "tightly held". Because of this, I would Buy QQQ if it makes a
run now and destroys its bearish-looking head/shoulders pattern. This will
bring on another short-covering burst upwards.
There are a number of very special biotech situations that look bullish. We see
them in the Bullish MAXCPs tonight. The star performer is Madrigal. Its preliminary
trials for a novel way to treat fatty livers not caused by drinking has had a high degree of
success. While trials are always limited. the stunning results its drug is getting
would occur less than once in 10,000 randomized samples. It used to be a $300
stock. It is still only half of that price. We will watch to see who makes a bid for it.
It epitomizes what we always hope to find using our Explosive Super Stock screens.
If someone came up to me and wanted one stock to buy, this is what I would pick
for him.
http://www.madrigalpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Madrigal-Announces-EASL-Presentation.20180130_FINAL.pdf
Charts 1/31/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ (Square)
1/31/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsBullish: Closing Power Rising = 21 Falling = 5 Warnings: 5-dma Falling = 21 Rising = 11ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 261.44 .82 W263.75 -21.5% Bullish RED .231 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7411.48 9 7411.16 -2.4% Bullish RED .373 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.9 .14 W283.3 -22.5% Bullish RED .325 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 169.4 .7 168.35 29.2% Bullish RED .364 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355 -.7 W360.93 -85.8% ---- RED .173 -.051 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 156.36 -.82 W159.03 -82.2% ---- RED .118 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 78.8 1.1 W80.19 -99.4% Bullish BLUE .228 .204 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 40.72 -1.16 W43.79 -404.9% ---- RED .303 .428 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 173.91 4.35 165.44 -17.5% ---- RED .2 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 136.84 3.21 135.09 31.1% Bullish BLUE .264 .117 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 114.08 -2.19 W116.63 -77.7% Bullish RED .152 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 127.65 .85 W127.97 -46.2% ---- BLUE .133 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.24 .07 W7.29 -122.7% Bullish BLUE .21 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 27.46 -.24 W28.67 -260.3% ---- RED .24 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 25.04 -.44 W29.63 -1036.7% Bearish RED -.022 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 33.62 .54 W33.71 -66.6% Bullish BLUE .114 -.023 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.25 -.03 W23.31 -6.4% Bullish ---- .051 -.16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 103.3 .03 W104.08 -26.5% Bearish RED -.071 -.139 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 51.04 .56 51.01 80% Bearish BLUE -.117 -.205 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.32 -.1 6.08 201.4% Bullish ---- .161 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 49.79 1.78 W50.05 -225% Bullish RED .28 .34 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.49 .23 W23.8 -61.6% Bullish ---- .337 -.028 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 167.43 .46 W171.11 -199.3% Bearish BLUE .017 -.134 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1169.94 6.25 W1170.37 24.4% Bullish RED .331 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 95.01 2.27 92.33 171.6% Bullish BLUE .104 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 1450.89 13.07 1377.95 333.8% Bullish RED .31 .163 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 186.89 -.23 W187.48 9.1% Bullish RED .106 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 245.8 3.08 236.35 207.5% Bullish ---- .257 .049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 354.37 16.66 343.11 289.5% Bullish RED .087 .231 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 267.89 -1.05 W269.03 41.1% Bullish RED .135 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 200.9 -.91 W205.37 -129.7% Bullish RED .159 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 162.78 -.98 W169.37 -167.2% Bearish RED .114 .081Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180131 No. NHs Pct ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 4 67 % DJI-13 13 3 23 % JETS 9 2 22 % NIFTY 30 6 20 % MILITARY 38 7 18 % GAMING 28 5 18 % DOWJONES 30 5 17 % ========================================================= BEVERAGE 20 2 10 % INSURANC 32 3 9 % NASD-100 100 9 9 % FINANCE 93 6 6 % SP-100 96 6 6 % SOFTWARE 66 4 6 % AUTO 39 2 5 % SP500 485 23 5 % RUS-1000 837 38 5 % HACKERS 25 1 4 % MORNSTAR 238 9 4 % BIOTECH 393 17 4 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % GREEN 31 1 3 % CHINA 64 2 3 % INDEXES 194 4 2 % RETAIL 53 1 2 % INDMATER 90 1 1 % ELECTRON 178 1 1 % SEMI 130 1 1 % REIT 178 1 1 % ------------------ None ------------------------------------- BIGBANKS REGBANKS HOMEBLDG CHEM ETFS OILGAS INFRA TRANSP SOLAR COAL GOLD EDU UTILITY PIPELINE COMODITY FOOD BONDFUND HOSPITALTable 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 1/31/18 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL 1 1 .875 .875 .875 .875 ETFS .939 .939 .969 .969 .969 .954 INDEXES .927 .932 .938 .927 .927 .938 MORNSTAR .869 .873 .894 .92 .911 .92 SP-100 .864 .885 .895 .916 .927 .927 BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 1 1 1 TRANSP .85 .85 .8 .85 .8 .9 DOWJONES .833 .9 .9 .9 .9 .933 NASD-100 .83 .82 .85 .89 .86 .86 FINANCE .806 .817 .827 .827 .849 .849 N=11 =========================================================================================== RETAIL .792 .83 .867 .867 .867 .867 COMODITY .785 .8 .8 .8 .742 .757 GAMING .785 .785 .785 .821 .857 .821 SP500 .777 .787 .812 .851 .841 .83 INFRA .771 .857 .885 .942 .914 .914 AUTO .769 .871 .871 .897 .871 .871 DJI-13 .769 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 NIFTY .766 .733 .8 .8 .766 .833 CHINA .765 .75 .75 .796 .781 .781 GOLD .764 .725 .725 .862 .803 .901 MILITARY .763 .815 .789 .763 .789 .763 SOFTWARE .757 .727 .772 .818 .742 .757 BEVERAGE .75 .8 .8 .85 .8 .8 RUS-1000 .734 .75 .774 .805 .802 .8 INDMATER .722 .766 .8 .855 .855 .855 PIPELINE .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 COAL .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 OILGAS .7 .707 .778 .8 .8 .814 REGBANKS .696 .727 .757 .787 .757 .818 JETS .666 .777 .666 .666 .666 .777 INSURANC .625 .625 .625 .687 .75 .687 COMPUTER .608 .652 .739 .739 .739 .782 FOOD .6 .6 .666 .6 .4 .466 HACKERS .6 .6 .68 .72 .72 .72 CHEM .593 .578 .64 .671 .671 .687 BIOTECH .587 .631 .689 .689 .676 .651 GREEN .516 .516 .58 .548 .58 .645 N=27 ============================================================================================== ELECTRON .455 .488 .533 .573 .505 .601 SEMI .43 .446 .5 .553 .461 .576 HOMEBLDG .352 .411 .47 .647 .647 .882 EDU .285 .285 .428 .714 .714 .714 UTILITY .279 .255 .232 .232 .209 .162 SOLAR .238 .238 .38 .333 .333 .38 REIT .162 .123 .129 .179 .235 .23 BONDFUND .027 .018 .036 .081 .081 .081 N=8
==============================================================================
1/30/2018 The Peerless September Buy B21 has not been reversed. But a bigger pullback than
we have seen so far would seem healthy and likely. Tomorrow's recovery will be
partisan-inspired. The State of The Union Message is mostly a political cheer-leading
event. For this reason, the DJI may stall out soon after it closes the downside gap in
today's trading. A run up to 26400 would do this.
Bulls, the animal that is, are actually color-blind like most four-legged animals. So, it is the
movement of the cape that gets them in trouble, not the color. We should not be fooled now by
a sudden lurch upwards. Buying on a decent pullback will be safer unless Peerless first
generates a Sell signal. That could happen. We might get a Sell at DJI-26600 later this
week since both the the P-Indicator and V-Indicators are now negative. As the DJI is
currently 1.3% over the 21-dma, a 300 point rally up from here on poor breadth and
low up-volume could bring a Sell S9.
Possibly good earnings this week for tech stocks, AAPL, GOOG and AMAZON will lift
the NASDAQ, though profit-taking on the positive news seems just as likely. Trump's
promise to take on the Drug Companies and their high prices may bring about some weakness
on the NASDAQ, too.
Did you know that the City of New York is suing fossil fuel companies for keeping to
themselves knowledge of their role in causing man-made global warming? Seems far-fetched,
right? But oil stocks have turned weak.
I am always ruminating on historical parallels. Trump's tax cut and de-Regulation are right
out of the 1920s, from the play-books of Harding and Coolidge. The policies' parallels here
are quite close. Along with low interest rates and margin requirements, these policies
produced the extraordinary bull market of the 1920s. But there are two important differences.
The first is the absence now of many, many new consumer goods. In the 1920s cars, radios,
refrigerators, washing machines... were all relatively new. The second difference is in the area
of consumer credit. At the start of the 1920s boom, consumer credit was relatively new and
consumers were not as tapped out as they are now. This means the dangers of over-production
and lack of consumer demand do over-hang the market. Most people need credit, a lot of
it, to buy a new car. We should watch Ford's stock. See below. If tariffs on auto imports are
not enacted, Ford is in trouble. The American market is already shrinking because credit
is harder to get now than in the past.
On balance, the bullish parallels are still much more weighty. The tax cuts have not yet had a
chance to work their "voo-doo" magic and there has not yet been a take-over binge. So, let's
plan to buy on a 5%-7% dip from here.
Today was the second day in a row when the ratio of NYSE decliners to advancers
was more than 4:1. This should reinforce our resolve not to chase the market at this
point. So should the fact that there were substantially more new lows than new highs
today on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. See Table 2.
Charts 1/30/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ (Square)
1/30/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPsTable 1
QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 01/30/18Bullish: Closing Power Rising = 24 Falling = 5 Warnings: 5-dma Falling = 26 Rising = 6 Red candle-stick = 20 Blue candle-stick = 12ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 260.62 -3.54 W262.57 -23.7% Bullish RED .226 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPQX 7402.48 -64.03 W7415.06 -38.8% Bullish BLUE .354 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 281.76 -2.92 W283.18 -26.9% Bullish RED .295 -.02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 168.7 -1.4 168.41 -23.9% Bullish BLUE .308 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 355.7 -3.73 W361.18 -88.6% ---- RED .102 -.044 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------IWM 157.18 -1.52 W158.97 -87.3% Bullish RED .114 -.039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 77.7 -2.41 W80.39 -110.7% Bullish BLUE .207 .191 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 41.88 -2.97 W44.28 -378.6% Bullish RED .326 .558 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 169.56 -10.99 W174.52 -502.2% Bullish RED .184 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 133.63 -3.89 W135.99 -203.2% Bullish RED .196 .131 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------IBB 116.27 -2.23 115.9 -23% Bullish RED .176 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 126.8 -.55 W128.83 -18.8% ---- RED .066 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 7.17 -.17 W7.42 -34.1% Bullish ---- .174 .105 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 27.7 -.39 W28.94 -281.8% ---- ---- .302 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 25.48 -2.63 W31.01 -968.2% Bearish RED -.041 .074 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------UGA 33.08 -.82 W34.07 -120.8% Bullish RED .045 -.06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 23.28 -.04 *23.28 -49.3% Bullish BLUE .068 -.164 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 103.27 -.24 W103.85 -37.6% Bearish RED -.075 -.147 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- XLU 50.48 .09 50.23 -5.9% Bearish BLUE -.19 -.223 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 6.42 .14 6.07 392.8% Bullish BLUE .209 -.083 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------YINN 48.01 -2.47 W52.08 -315.3% Bullish RED .279 .363 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 23.26 -.07 W23.78 -67.7% Bullish RED .28 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 166.97 -.99 W174.22 -292.1% Bearish BLUE -.02 -.131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GOOG 1163.69 -11.89 W1164.24 -26.8% Bullish RED .296 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 92.74 -1.18 91.82 45.3% ---- RED .028 -.001 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------AMZN 1437.82 20.14 1357.51 272.1% Bullish BLUE .365 .157 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FB 187.12 1.14 186.55 -59.3% Bullish BLUE .116 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA 242.72 -4.13 235.8 79.3% Bullish BLUE .255 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 337.71 -3.11 334.69 31.2% Bullish RED .12 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 268.94 -3.54 265.68 165.7% Bullish RED .144 .013 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------HD 201.81 -3.11 W206.22 -75.1% Bullish BLUE .145 .101 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 163.76 1.18 W168.34 -169.4% Bullish BLUE .13 .102Table 2
Date = 180130
Number in Key Directories
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 73
NEWLOWS 159 More new lows than new highs just 2 days away from a DJI high is bearish.
MAXCP 87
MINCP 250 Professional selling was quite dominant.
TTTNH 59
TTTNL 346
FASTUP 83
FASTDOWN 225
CPCROSSA 51
CPCROSSD 95
BIGVOLUP 5
BIGVODN 40Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 1/30/18 Bullish = 38 Bearish = 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 HOSPITAL 1 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 ETFS .939 .969 .969 .969 .954 .954 INDEXES .932 .938 .927 .927 .932 .907 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 .923 1 1 DOWJONES .9 .9 .9 .9 .933 .933 SP-100 .885 .895 .916 .927 .927 .937 MORNSTAR .873 .894 .92 .911 .92 .924 AUTO .871 .871 .897 .871 .871 .871 BIGBANKS .857 1 1 1 1 1 INFRA .857 .885 .942 .914 .885 .942 TRANSP .85 .8 .85 .8 .9 1 RETAIL .83 .867 .867 .867 .867 .849 NASD-100 .82 .85 .89 .86 .86 .89 FINANCE .817 .827 .827 .849 .849 .903 MILITARY .815 .789 .763 .789 .736 .736 BEVERAGE .8 .8 .85 .8 .8 .8 COMODITY .8 .8 .8 .742 .757 .7 N=18 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SP500 .787 .812 .851 .841 .83 .839 GAMING .785 .785 .821 .857 .821 .821 JETS .777 .666 .666 .666 .777 1 INDMATER .766 .8 .855 .855 .855 .844 CHINA .75 .75 .796 .781 .781 .796 RUS-1000 .75 .774 .805 .802 .799 .808 NIFTY .733 .8 .8 .766 .833 .866 REGBANKS .727 .757 .787 .757 .787 .848 SOFTWARE .727 .772 .818 .742 .757 .818 GOLD .725 .725 .862 .803 .901 .862 PIPELINE .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 OILGAS .702 .773 .794 .794 .808 .815 COAL .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .8 COMPUTER .652 .739 .739 .739 .782 .826 BIOTECH .633 .687 .695 .682 .653 .702 INSURANC .625 .625 .687 .75 .687 .718 FOOD .6 .666 .6 .4 .466 .333 HACKERS .6 .68 .72 .72 .72 .68 CHEM .578 .64 .671 .671 .687 .687 GREEN .516 .58 .548 .58 .645 .677 N= 20 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELECTRON .488 .533 .573 .505 .595 .646 SEMI .446 .5 .553 .461 .569 .6 HOMEBLDG .411 .47 .647 .647 .882 .882 EDU .285 .428 .714 .714 .714 .714 UTILITY .255 .232 .232 .209 .162 .139 SOLAR .238 .38 .333 .333 .38 .38 REIT .118 .124 .175 .231 .225 .248 BONDFUND .018 .036 .081 .081 .081 .099 N= 8
==============================================================================
1/29/2018 Let's not be too greedy in here. That could get us in trouble. Take some
profits. There are many big "Red Popsicles" in Table 1. Table 2 shows us
that Professionals are doing a lot of dumping now. MINCPs outnumber
MaxCPs by a wide margin and the number of new lows is quite high
considering that the DJI is only one day away from its high. It is even conceivable
that a new Peerless Sell signal could be devised that tests well and fit in here.
The ratio of declining stocks to advancing stocks was 4.4 today. This shows
a big rush to sell by Professionals. What are they afraid of?
Peerless has given no Sell signal, but how can taking some very ripe profits hurt?
That seems only prudent, I admit. So go ahead. But understand that we may
only be able to re-enter at a higher price.
Today the number of NYSE decliners (2467) were 4.429 times the number of
advancers (557). Clearly there was a rush to sell dividend shares. But it was more
than that. Interest rates rising are only one explanation. Another is that Trump is now
in deeper political trouble than before A third is that investors are afraid of a bad surprise from
Trump's State of The Union message Tuesday night. Adding some bearish MINCPs
short sales to hedge with will help.
There is a good chance that the DJI will fall no further than the 21-dma. Of course, that
is still a 3% decline. Such a poor breadth ratio like we saw today with the DJI so far above
the 21-day ma, 3% now, is quite rare. Only once in the five earlier cases with the DJI more
than 2% over the 21 day ma, did the DJI break below the 21-dma by as much as the 3% lower
band. So, the odds of a 6% or more decline now are, perhaps, only 20%. This would
seem to suggest that we should ride out the current decline. But why take a chance?
You have nice profits from the Buy B21, take them. As of today's close, the September
B21 has gained +18.6% on the DJI. This is a percent higher than they have averaged
in the past. Let's not be greedy.
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A decline is certainly indicated. Below see all the cases of such poor breadth when the
DJI was simply above the 21-dma. Only in 34% of the cases, did the storm of selling
quickly pass. In 55% of the cases, such poor breadth was followed by a decline to
at least the 2% lower band, but sometimes much lower..
Below are all the cases of such a poor breadth ratio since 1945. Note that "la/ma" shows
how far the DJI is above the 21-dma. "Bad" means this case would have failed as a sell signal
because the DJI advanced significantly without even a decline to the 21-dma. "Good" means
a sell signal here would have brought a decline to the lower 2% band, at least. "Flat" means
a sell signal here would have stopped the rally for 3 weeks or more.
There have been 38 cases of such poor breadth since 1945 with the DJI above the 21-dma.
in 21 (55%) cases, the DJI fell at least to the lower 3% band but in 13 (34%) instances, the DJI
quickly rallied significantly. In the remaining 4, the DJI hesitated for a few weeks and then
rose significantly. This would seem to argue for some profit-taking now, especially when our
profits are so big.
Sell? Date la/ma outcome
----------------------------------------------------------
BAD 8/20/1945 1.002 DJI rallied
GOOD 12/12/1945 1.011 DJI fell to lower 2% band
GOOD 8/14/1946 1.008 Bear market followed.
GOOD 10/17/1947 1.01 DJI fell to lower 3.5% band.
GOOD 1/10/1948 1.006 DJI fell to 3% lower band.
GOOD 5/6/1948 1.013 DJI fell to lower 3.5% band
GOOD 9/8/1948 1.004 DJI fell to lower 2% band
GOOD 10/24/1948 1.01 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
GOOD 12/26/1948 1.001 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
BAD 10/17/1949 1.009 DJI rallied.
BAD 8/25/1950 1.011 DJI rallied
BAD 1/10/1951 1.027 DJI rallied
STOP 1/5/1955 1.002 3-weeks sidewise.
GOOD 8/6/1956 1.001 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
BAD 12/10/1962 1.008 DJI declined only to ma and then rose.
GOOD 9/21/1966 1.003 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
BAD 2/25/1975 1.002 DJI rallied
GOOD 10/16/1978 1.001 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
GOOD 10/8/1979 1.002 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
STOP 8/18/1980 1.009 DJI stopped rallying and went sidewise.
BAD 10/25/1982 1.024 DJI fell only to 21-dma and rise sharply.
BAD 12/28/1988 1.021 DJI fell only to 21-dma and rose sharply.
BAD 3/17/1989 1.001 slight 4 day decline and then strong rally.
GOOD 4/13/2004 1.007 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
GOOD 5/24/2007 1.008 After a run to upper band, DJI fell below LB
GOOD 7/24/2007 1.003 DJI fell below lower 3.5% band.
GOOD 12/11/2007 1.017 Bear market began.
GOOD 7/24/2008 1.001 Bear market followed.
BAD 3/30/2009 1.042 New bull market continues.
BAD 5/13/2009 1.011 Bull market continues
STOP 11/19/2009 1.026 DJI went flat for a month. .
BAD 10/19/2010
GOOD 7/11/2011 1.023 DJI fell below lower band.
GOOD 11/1/2011 1.008 DJI fell below lower band. (No Peerless Sell here).
BAD 4/15/2013 1.001 DJI fell slightly and then rallied strongly.
GOOD 7/17/2014 1.002 DJI fell to lower band.
GOOD 9/22/2014 1.004 DJI fell below lower band.
STOP 8/19/2017 1.002 DJI went sidewise for a month.
UNDECIDED 1/29/2018 1.030
Charts 1/29/2018
PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol V-Indicator
Hourly DJIA A/D Line for All Stocks
NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30
DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA
CrudeOil FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL
SDS SLV SOXL TECL TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) XIV YINN
Commodities: JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, WEAT UUP (Dollar)
AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE
FB GOOG GS HD IBM JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NVDA QCOM TSLA TXN XOM WMT
ANDV (refinery), CMG (Chipotle), LRCX, SWKS, TOWN Also SPPI WATT SQ (Square)
1/29/2018 Bullish MAXCPs Bearish MINCPs
Table 2
Count of Stocks in Key Tiger Directories
Date = 180129
--------------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 225
NEWLOWS 130 This is a lot of new lows when the DJI is only 1 day from its high.
MAXCP 96
MINCP 252 Professionals are much more bearish than bullish.
TTTNH 71
TTTNL 360
FASTUP 119
FASTDOWN 135
CPCROSSA 47
CPCROSSD 122
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 31 There is big rush for the exits here!Table 3 Count of Stocks and New Highs in Key Tiger Directories Date = 180129 ------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGMIL 6 3 50 % JETS 9 3 33 % BIGBANKS 7 2 29 % MILITARY 38 9 24 % GAMING 28 6 21 % NASD-100 100 16 16 % TRANSP 20 3 15 % RETAIL 53 8 15 % ====================================================== EDU 7 1 14 % DOWJONES 30 4 13 % NIFTY 30 4 13 % HOSPITAL 8 1 13 % SP-100 96 11 11 % BIOTECH 386 44 11 % INFRA 35 4 11 % SP500 485 52 11 % INDEXES 194 19 10 % FINANCE 93 8 9 % MORNSTAR 238 22 9 % DJI-13 13 1 8 % RUS-1000 837 68 8 % COMODITY 70 5 7 % HOMEBLDG 17 1 6 % SOFTWARE 66 4 6 % INSURANC 32 2 6 % BEVERAGE 20 1 5 % COMPUTER 23 1 4 % REGBANKS 33 1 3 % AUTO 39 1 3 % OILGAS 141 4 3 % CHINA 64 2 3 % CHEM 64 1 2 % ELECTRON 178 3 2 % SEMI 130 2 2 % INDMATER 90 1 1 % ==================================================== None: GREEN ETFS HACKERS SOLAR COAL GOLD REIT UTILITY PIPELINE FOOD BONDFUNDTable 4
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 1/29/18 Bullish = 39 Bearish = 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1 BIGMIL 1 1 1 1 1 1 ETFS .969 .969 .969 .954 .954 .954 INDEXES .938 .927 .927 .932 .907 .907 DJI-13 .923 .923 .923 1 1 1 DOWJONES .9 .9 .9 .933 .933 .966 SP-100 .895 .916 .927 .927 .937 .947 MORNSTAR .894 .92 .911 .92 .928 .911 INFRA .885 .942 .914 .885 .942 .885 HOSPITAL .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 AUTO .871 .897 .871 .871 .871 .923 RETAIL .867 .867 .867 .867 .867 .867 NASD-100 .85 .89 .86 .86 .89 .87 FINANCE .827 .827 .849 .849 .903 .881 SP500 .812 .851 .841 .83 .837 .835 BEVERAGE .8 .85 .8 .8 .8 .85 COAL .8 .8 .9 .9 .8 .8 COMODITY .8 .8 .742 .757 .7 .7 INDMATER .8 .855 .855 .855 .844 .855 NIFTY .8 .8 .766 .833 .866 .866 TRANSP .8 .85 .8 .9 .95 .9 MILITARY .789 .763 .789 .736 .736 .789 GAMING .785 .821 .857 .821 .821 .821 RUS-1000 .774 .805 .802 .799 .806 .799 OILGAS .773 .794 .794 .808 .815 .815 SOFTWARE .772 .818 .742 .757 .818 .787 REGBANKS .757 .787 .757 .787 .848 .909 CHINA .75 .796 .781 .781 .796 .796 COMPUTER .739 .739 .739 .782 .826 .826 GOLD .725 .862 .803 .901 .862 .862 PIPELINE .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 BIOTECH .689 .696 .683 .655 .699 .681 HACKERS .68 .72 .72 .72 .68 .72 FOOD .666 .6 .4 .466 .333 .266 JETS .666 .666 .666 .777 .888 .777 CHEM .64 .671 .671 .687 .687 .687 INSURANC .625 .687 .75 .687 .718 .687 GREEN .58 .548 .58 .645 .677 .741 ELECTRON .533 .573 .505 .595 .657 .64 =========================================================================================== SEMI .5 .553 .461 .569 .6 .623============================================================================================ HOMEBLDG .47 .647 .647 .882 .882 .882 EDU .428 .714 .714 .714 .714 .714 SOLAR .38 .333 .333 .38 .38 .428 UTILITY .232 .232 .209 .162 .139 .116 REIT .124 .175 .231 .225 .248 .163 BONDFUND .036 .081 .081 .081 .099 .081
