---- TIGERSOFT/PEERLESS HOTLINE ----
(C)
1985-2020 William Schmidt, Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
william_schmidt@hotmail.com All rights strictly
reserved
www.tigersoft.com/2020NIGHT/HLINDEX.htm
IMPORTANT - Always
CLICK REFRESH.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
===> Please use new Corrected Hotline Address
that you should have received tonight by email.
If you did not get this email, let me know right away.
william_schmidt@hotmail.com
The Fed has announced it will be floating new 20-year bonds
today. Will
this affect the market? Stay tuned...
Data used through
1/15/2020 Written 1/16/2020 5:15 AM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earlier Hotlines
www.tigersoft.com/4ACES1/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/48HLA/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/QUICKER/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/QUICK/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/77HLZ/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/44THL/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/21PEY3/INDEX-2.htm
(most recent Hotlines before
current ones)
......................................................................
www.tigersoft.com/19HLK5/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/44UHL/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/NHLP/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/7LHL/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/NHL718/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/21MAY18/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/55HEP/INDEX.htm
www.tigersoft.com/44H4L/INDEX2.htm
Earlier still: Go here...
HELP
A Guide
To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and
Sells.
Peerless Buy and
Sell Signals: 1928-2016
Individual Peerless signals explained:
http://tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/Signals-Res/index.htm
http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Explanation of each Peerless signal. http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/
Different Types of
TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
-----> More HELP LINKS
Documentation for
TigerSoft Automatic and Optimized Signals.
How reliable support is the
DJI's rising 200-day ma?
SPY Charts since
1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma, Optimized Signals.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
1/19/2016 ---> Corrections,Deeper
Declines and Bear Markets since 1945.
1/21/2016
---> High
Velocity Declines since 1929
2/12/2016 ---> Presidential
Elections Years and Bullish IP21 Positive Non-Confirmations at Lower Band.
2/12/2016 ---> OBV NNCs on DJI's Rally to
2.7% Upper Band when DJI's 65-dma is falling.
11/6/2016 --->
Killer Short Selling
Techniques: ===> Order Here ($42.50)
It's As Easy as 1,2,3
TigerSoft "Combination" Short-Selling... Easy as 1-2-3 Short Sales
Earlier Q-Answers
QuickSilver Documentation (1/11/2016)
Our Different
Signals
Better understand the difference between
Peerless DJI-based signals,
the one-year optimized red Signals and the fixed signals based
on technical developments.
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types of
TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
New TigerPeerless Installation and
Basic Uses' Instruction
See the re-written materials on TigerSoft Buys and Sells.
Study- Trading SPY
WITHOUT Peerless - Some Guidelines.
When completed this will be a new Tiger Trading E-Book.
Study- Examples of
"Hands above the Head" top patterns.
Study- 9/3/2017 TigerSoft (not
Peerless) charts of Major Tops as they occurred.
===> Please report any broken or out-of-date links. william_schmidt@hotmail.com
====================================================================
====================================================================
1/15/2016 There
seems to be no stopping the DJI. If anything, the interest rate picture
is now more bullish than it was in 1915, 1927-1928 and 1954-1955 when
the DJI rang up record gains accompanied by interest rates below 4%. The
rising NYSE A/D Line is our best single indicator in this respect and it has
hardly paused since the end of December 2018. Any retreat will be short-lived
and limited, if history is our guide. The DJI's breakout over 29000, which
started today, will set up a new trading target of 31500. Hold DIA, QQQ
and the best performing, high Power-Ranked stocks.
Year DJI Gain
Discount Rate (year's low)
---------------------------------------
1915 + 81.7%
3.75% July-Dec
PE 1924 +26.2%
3.5%
1925 +30.0%
3.5%
1926 -0.3%
3.5% (Florida Real
Estate Bust)
1927 + 28.8%
3.5%
PE 1928 + 48.2%
4.0%
1954 + 44.0%
1.5%
1955 + 20.8%
1.5%
PE 1956 +2.3%
3.0%
2018-2019
2.25%
(Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M13009USM156NNBR
)
What launched today's rally? Interest rates (3-month and 10-yr bond) fell
sharply today and the US Labor Dept. reported minimal inflation.
"PPI
for final demand increased 0.1% in December; goods rose 0.3%,
services,
unchanged". This followed by two days the CPI "for all items
less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in December (SA); up 2.3
percent
over the year" . Low
inflation was great news for stocks given the steady
increase in Jobs and modest wage gains. Wall Street could hardly have
gotten better data. This sent sent the DJ-Utilities Average up past its
well-tested
flat top and gave traders additional confidence that the FED would stick to its
policy of low rates and big injections of cash into the US banking
system.
Visa in the DJI-30 surges past all obvious resistance points into all-time
high territory, as did high Power Ranked SO. Moving up again was MSFT
and our super stock, BLDP. (I only wish there were more stocks that looked
as good as BLDP does. As when playing a really big bass, you must let the
fish run itself until its tired out).
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
Charts 1/15/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/15/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-15/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-15/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 11-15-2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------- -----------------------------------------------
AAPL 311.34 -1.34 309.63 131.2% Bullish RED .145 .155
highest
---------------------------------------------------------------------
AXP 129.82 1.02 127.81 167.7% Bullish BLUE .143 .027
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 329.8 -2.55 336.34 -23.6% ------- RED -.271 -.107
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 145.57 -1.11 147.31 -71.8% ------- RED .191 -.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CSCO 48.01 .22 47.32 51.5% Bullish BLUE .137 -.041
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CVX 116.13 -.17 117.51 -67.1% ------- BLUE-.102 -.063
---------------------------------------------------------------------
DIS 144.32 -.88 144.83 -37.3% ------- RED -.079 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 245.21 -.45 242.6 153.5% Bullish BLUE-.005 .066
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 224.59 1.78 225.19 62.6% Bullish BLUE .155 -.116
---------------------------------------------------------------------
IBM 136.62 .8 136.74 48.1% Bullish BLUE .046 -.054
---------------------------------------------------------------------
INTC 58.94 -.49 59.3 -2.5% Bullish RED .036 -.019
---------------------------------------------------------------------
JNJ 147.01 .49 145.39 70.4% Bullish BLUE .249 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------
JPM 136.72 -2.08 137.44 -8% Bullish RED -.13 .008
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KO 56.7 .7 55.34 211.8% Bullish BLUE .064 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MCD 209.77 2.45 208.35 93.2% Bullish BLUE .266 .019
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MMM 179.78 -1.59 181.2 -23.5% Bullish RED .39 -.005
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MRK 91.54 1.61 89.38 164.4% ------- BLUE .036 .015
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 163.18 1.05 162.09 95.5% Bullish BLUE .111 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NKE 102.79 -.13 101.48 60.9% Bullish RED .214 .09
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PFE 40.67 .6 38.89 204.4% Bullish BLUE-.004 -.003
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PG 125.96 1.27 123.85 139.1% Bullish BLUE-.095 -.045
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TRV 137.57 .92 137.62 35.2% Bullish BLUE .169 -.01
---------------------------------------------------------------------
UNH 296.41 8.17 294.22 8.7% Bullish BLUE .032 .113
---------------------------------------------------------------------
UTX 151.96 .42 153.65 -47.9% ------- BLUE-.051 -.026
---------------------------------------------------------------------
V 199.8 3.75 193.25 203% Bullish BLUE .297 .042
highest
---------------------------------------------------------------------
VZ 59.1 .06 58.85 -51.6% Bearish RED -.082 -.083
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WBA 54.43 -.19 54.68 -128% Bearish RED -.146 -.114
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WMT 115.28 -.9 117.36 -37.8% ------- BLUE-.156 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------
DOW 69.09 -.11 69.76 -10.1% ------- RED -.016 -.07
|
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/13/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 290.35 1.13 289.56 51.1% Bullish BLUE .02 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 329.8 -2.55 336.34 -23.6% ------- RED -.271 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 328.19 .74 326.65 57.3% Bullish BLUE .158 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 220.17 .09 218.99 68.9% Bullish ---- .205 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 378.03 .51 374.68 59% Bullish BLUE .262 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 167.37 .8 165.51 62.2% Bullish BLUE .223 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 97.35 .23 96.57 136.4% Bullish BLUE-.011 .104 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.86 -.54 26.74 -37.2% Bullish RED .096 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 283.15 -10.59 286.71 22.8% Bearish RED .027 .274 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 269.64 1.14 264.84 253.9% Bullish BLUE .178 .35 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 121.73 .62 121.04 62.7% Bullish BLUE .129 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 146.54 1.16 146.03 -10.9% ------- BLUE .054 -.034 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 12.68 -.28 13.14 -130.6% ------- RED .04 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.72 -.2 9.23 -437% ------- ---- .11 .136 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200115
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 448 Bullish Ratio: NH/NL
NEWLOWS 18
MAXCP 136
MINCP 17
TTTNH 32
TTTNL 16
FASTUP 85
FASTDOWN 58
CPCROSSA 83
CPCROSSD 36
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 8
ACCUMVER 21
HIGHIP21 72
HIUPPCT 78
REDSELL 68
AUGSELS7 32
TRAPDOOR 12
|
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/15/20
Bullish = 42
Bearish = 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COPPER 1 1 1 .875 .875 .875
BONDFUND .91 .9 .881 .851 .861 .881
ETFS .894 .929 .947 .912 .929 .929
CHINA .89 .89 .89 .872 .854 .818
NASD-100 .886 .896 .865 .824 .855 .845
SEMI .878 .906 .897 .906 .878 .878
UTILITY .875 .825 .85 .725 .675 .575
GAMING .863 .863 .818 .772 .818 .863
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 .857 1 1
COMPUTER .842 .842 .842 .789 .789 .736
INDEXES .838 .844 .849 .822 .865 .881
ELECTRON .83 .856 .856 .856 .816 .83
SOLAR .823 .882 .882 .823 .823 .705
SP-100 .822 .833 .833 .811 .855 .833
HOSPITAL .818 .772 .818 .818 .818 .727
BEVERAGE .812 .687 .812 .687 .625 .625
NIFTY .812 .875 .812 .687 .687 .75
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HACKERS .8 .8 .8 .75 .75 .75
FIDSTKS .776 .804 .782 .743 .804 .776
GOLD .77 .729 .666 .77 .75 .75
DJI-13 .769 .769 .769 .692 .769 .692
SP500 .764 .764 .754 .724 .743 .72
GREEN .761 .809 .809 .761 .761 .714
DOWJONES .758 .758 .793 .724 .793 .724
SOFTWARE .75 .766 .733 .716 .716 .716
TRANSP .75 .75 .7 .65 .7 .65
RUS-1000 .733 .727 .716 .693 .701 .69
BIOTECH .731 .728 .702 .719 .705 .705
COMODITY .725 .775 .825 .775 .825 .75
FOOD .722 .796 .814 .814 .851 .777
GUNS .687 .625 .625 .562 .687 .75
MILITARY .678 .678 .678 .607 .714 .678
OILGAS .664 .679 .679 .716 .708 .694
REGBANKS .653 .692 .73 .653 .692 .692
HOMEBLDG .647 .647 .588 .647 .47 .588
RETAIL .647 .705 .686 .647 .627 .607
FINANCE .611 .623 .658 .623 .717 .705
JETS .6 .6 .5 .5 .6 .5
REIT .572 .51 .579 .468 .4 .42
INDMATER .558 .571 .558 .493 .558 .571
CHEM .54 .54 .56 .44 .5 .52
INFRA .5 .583 .583 .611 .638 .638
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INSURANC .461 .423 .461 .346 .538 .461
AUTO .384 .435 .435 .384 .487 .512
COAL .2 0 0 0 .2 .2
|
====================================================================
1/14/2020 Peerless
remains on Buys. Simply because the DJIA seems to have stalled
another
time upon challenging its resistance at the top of its price channel,
at 29000, does not mean that it will suddenly go into reverse or that we
should deny ourselves the the opportunity to make money elsewhere in the
market.
If that is not convincing, sell short some of the Bearish MINCPs or Buy
a commodity, like Lithium.
There are too many bullish signs to be very bearish. See above how strong
the NYSE A/D Line is. The first break in the market when the A/D Line
has advanced for a whole year is invariably shallow and short-lived.
I mentioned last night that Utilities were on the verge of a bullish
flat-top breakout. This would not be so if Rates were about to rise
sharply.
Lastly see how the SP-500's Seasonality chart has risen very steadily,
if not dramatically, in Presidential Election years.
|
Charts 1/14/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL PALL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/14/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-14/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-14/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 11-14-2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT -dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------- ----------------------------------------------- AAPL 312.68 -4.28 303.19 232.2% Bullish RED .208 .188 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 128.8 .26 125.54 213% Bullish BLUE .141 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 332.35 2.13 331.37 -74% ------- BLUE-.268 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 146.68 -.14 147.68 10.2% ------- RED .167 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.79 -.18 47.52 31.6% ------- RED .099 -.063 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 116.3 -.36 117.7 -117.5% ------- RED -.148 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 145.2 1.32 145.4 -17.3% ------- BLUE-.101 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 245.66 .45 237.76 211.3% Bullish BLUE-.035 .082 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 222.81 -.53 221.79 96.4% Bullish BLUE .187 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 135.82 -.78 135.31 60% Bullish RED .034 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 59.43 -.16 58.97 42.3% Bullish RED .055 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 146.52 .82 144.96 53% Bullish BLUE .252 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 138.8 1.6 136.94 106.8% Bullish BLUE-.12 .042 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 56 -.13 54.35 158.7% Bullish RED .067 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 207.32 .81 205.91 113.8% Bullish BLUE .264 -.015 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 181.37 .45 180.63 96.3% Bullish BLUE .397 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 89.93 .42 88.6 40.9% ------- BLUE-.003 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 162.13 -1.15 160.09 141.4% Bullish RED .149 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 102.92 .76 101.55 56.1% Bullish BLUE .237 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 40.07 .66 39.06 168.7% Bullish BLUE-.035 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 124.69 -.19 122.51 109.4% Bullish -----.091 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 136.65 .39 136.61 54.7% Bullish BLUE .15 -.027 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 288.24 2.39 295.9 -26.5% ------- BLUE-.017 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 151.54 -.51 153.42 -54% ------- BLUE-.049 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 196.05 .72 191.92 191.1% Bullish RED .287 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 59.04 -.11 59.71 -47.2% Bearish -----.069 -.093 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 54.62 .56 55.83 -419.8% Bearish BLUE-.174 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 116.18 .3 116.16 -16.3% ------- BLUE-.14 -.078 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 69.2 -.6 69.23 -78.3% Bearish RED -.033 -.045 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/13/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 289.22 .2 287.4 60.4% Bullish BLUE-.001 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 332.35 2.13 331.37 -74% ------- BLUE-.268 -.092 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 327.45 -.5 324.45 72.5% Bullish ---- .148 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 220.08 -.87 217.15 104.3% Bullish RED .23 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 377.52 1.09 373.6 61.3% Bullish BLUE .159 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 166.57 .61 165.31 53.5% Bullish BLUE .178 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 97.12 -1 94.72 227.6% Bullish RED -.017 .13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27.4 .44 27.06 70.8% ------- BLUE .005 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 293.74 1.88 281.84 220% Bearish BLUE-.001 .412 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 268.5 -5.16 256.17 392.9% Bullish RED .23 .386 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 121.11 1.95 120.22 81.7% Bullish BLUE .121 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 145.38 -.44 146.86 -88.3% ------- ---- .063 -.049 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 145.38 -.44 146.86 -88.3% Bullish ---- .037 13.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 12.96 .03 13.02 -190.5% ------- BLUE .03 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.92 .34 9.51 -983.2% Bearish BLUE .034 .284 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UGA 8.92 .34 9.51 -983.2% Bullish BLUE .09 -.791 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UUP 25.98 -.06 26.26 -53.5% ------- -----.019 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IEF 25.98 -.06 26.26 -53.5% Bearish ---- .329 -.837 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN 25.98 -.06 26.26 -53.5% Bullish ---- .047 .744 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WEAT 25.98 -.06 26.26 -53.5% ------- ---- .049 3.629 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YINN 25.98 -.06 26.26 -53.5% Bullish ---- .322 .293 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 25.92 -.52 25.76 121.8% Bullish RED .152 .007 |
Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200114
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 329
NEWLOWS 9
MAXCP 128
MINCP 11
TTTNH 30
TTTNL 15
FASTUP 85
FASTDOWN 58
CPCROSSA 101
CPCROSSD 53
BIGVOLUP 4
BIGVODN 7
ACCUMVER 28
HIGHIP21 69
HIUPPCT 63
VHIP21 147
LOWACCUM 109
REDSELL 71
AUGSELS7 34
TRAPDOOR 12
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/14/20
43 Bullish and 3 Bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COPPER 1 1 .875 .875 .875 .875
ETFS .929 .947 .912 .929 .929 .877
SEMI .906 .897 .906 .878 .878 .878
BONDFUND .9 .881 .851 .861 .881 .841
NASD-100 .896 .876 .835 .855 .855 .814
CHINA .89 .89 .872 .854 .836 .836
NIFTY .888 .87 .814 .833 .851 .851
SOLAR .882 .882 .823 .823 .705 .705
GAMING .863 .818 .772 .818 .863 .863
BIGBANKS .857 .857 .857 1 1 1
ELECTRON .856 .856 .856 .816 .83 .83
INDEXES .844 .849 .822 .865 .881 .87
COMPUTER .842 .842 .789 .789 .736 .736
SP-100 .833 .833 .811 .855 .833 .8
UTILITY .825 .85 .725 .675 .575 .625
GREEN .809 .809 .761 .761 .714 .809
FIDSTKS .804 .782 .743 .804 .782 .754
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HACKERS .8 .85 .75 .75 .75 .75
FOOD .796 .814 .814 .851 .796 .814
COMODITY .775 .825 .775 .825 .775 .775
HOSPITAL .772 .818 .818 .818 .727 .636
DJI-13 .769 .769 .692 .769 .692 .692
SOFTWARE .766 .75 .716 .716 .716 .7
SP500 .764 .756 .724 .743 .726 .697
DOWJONES .758 .793 .724 .793 .724 .758
TRANSP .75 .7 .65 .7 .65 .55
GOLD .729 .666 .77 .75 .75 .895
RUS-1000 .727 .717 .693 .701 .694 .671
BIOTECH .725 .699 .716 .705 .713 .687
RETAIL .705 .686 .647 .627 .627 .607
REGBANKS .692 .73 .653 .692 .692 .692
BEVERAGE .687 .812 .687 .625 .625 .625
OILGAS .679 .679 .716 .708 .694 .776
MILITARY .678 .678 .607 .714 .678 .642
HOMEBLDG .647 .588 .647 .47 .588 .411
GUNS .625 .625 .562 .687 .75 .687
FINANCE .623 .658 .623 .717 .705 .658
JETS .6 .5 .5 .6 .5 .5
INFRA .583 .583 .611 .638 .638 .583
INDMATER .571 .558 .493 .558 .584 .597
CHEM .54 .56 .44 .5 .52 .56
REIT .51 .579 .468 .4 .427 .386
===========================================================================================
AUTO .435 .435 .384 .487 .538 .564
INSURANC .423 .461 .346 .538 .461 .423
COAL 0 0 0 .2 .2 .4
|
.
=====================================================================
1/13/2020 Peerless
remains on Buys. The DJI seems stalled just below its resistance
at the top of the channel, at 29000. With the NYSE A/D Line very
strong for more than a year, history leads us not to expect much of a
pullback.
New highs jumped above 500. This can sometimes represent a
short-term over-bought condition, but I see it as a sign of ultimate
strength given the number of perma-bears that are still preaching
"doom and gloom".
Peter Schiff - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WD2zcyfwdJ4
Motley Fool - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTREL-7eRG4
"Phil's cycles" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDd-ohNyFJI
"Marko" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvymyRS0Vug
"George" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eYyAiDhYkA
"Celente" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HldgSmN2oIM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I see technical strength below, not signs of a market top. It's true that
the NASDAQ peaked in March 2000 after showing exceptional technical
bullishness, but in that case the NASDAQ (COMPQX) had just doubled
in the space of eight months and TigerSoft's Closing Power began making new
12-month lows then. The NASDAQ now is up much less and our Closing Power
is making new 12-month highs, not lows now. Professionals are bullish, not bearish.
The NASDAQ (COMPQX), which is running freely in all-time high
territory, did very well today. That makes QQQ an easy way to play
the current advance.
TSLA like BLDP is a play on alternative powered vehicles.
More and more governments are jumping on this band-wagon.
The US is not eactly in the forefront here. But the broad movement
to battery powered transportation will not be stopped by that.
The Tiger Seasonality chart (not shown) for TSLA suggests a peak
in early March. The price objective we can calculate makes $700
a minimum price objective. Both TSLA and BLDP are running
very strong now. As you will see by their tomorrow's much higher
opening, there is no easy way to get aboard them. But both should
go much higher if you have patience to ride out the trading dips and
hesitations.
Weekly TSLA...
Many technology stocks rose handily today, especially those with mainly
Chinese ownership or sponsorship. With the trade bill signed, there should
be blue skies ahead for the highest Power Ranked Chinese stocks. I would
include BLDP (see the MAXCPs' report tonight) in this group. It is 51%
chinese owned.
Less speculative traders are waiting to see what the new CPI and Producer
Price figures will be. The Dow Jones Utilities is worth watching, in this regard.
A move by it above 884 should start another advance here. The lack of
significant movement up by IWM (Russell-2000) and most low-priced stocks
shows that traders are not yet ready to roll into the small caps, the so-called
"cats and dogs".
|
Charts 1/13/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/13/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-13/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-13/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 11-13-2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------- -----------------------------------------------
AAPL 316.96 6.63 298.39 282% Bullish BLUE .29 .239 Bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------
AXP 128.54 1.26 123.41 178.3% Bullish BLUE .205 .025
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 330.22 .3 337.28 -52.7% ------- RED -.274 -.109 Bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CAT 146.82 .69 146.38 -51.6% ------- BLUE .236 -.017
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CSCO 47.97 .84 47.49 17.9% ------- BLUE .16 -.055
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CVX 116.66 .22 119.06 -166.6% Bearish BLUE -.101 -.061
---------------------------------------------------------------------
DIS 143.88 -.74 145.7 -60.9% Bearish RED -.153 .047
---------------------------------------------------------------------
GS 245.21 3.1 235.49 236.2% Bullish BLUE .037 .073
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HD 223.34 -.88 218.52 76.1% Bullish RED .176 -.118
---------------------------------------------------------------------
IBM 136.6 -.09 134.19 92.3% Bullish BLUE .107 -.054
---------------------------------------------------------------------
INTC 59.59 .65 58.93 -28.7% Bullish BLUE .08 -.011
---------------------------------------------------------------------
JNJ 145.7 .64 144.98 55.2% ------- BLUE .206 .033
---------------------------------------------------------------------
JPM 137.2 1.13 135.88 -37.6% Bullish BLUE -.047 .028
---------------------------------------------------------------------
KO 56.13 .6 54.25 133.1% Bullish BLUE .075 -.023
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MCD 206.51 -.76 202.63 101.8% Bullish RED .248 -.015
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MMM 180.92 .45 177.9 64% Bullish ---- .394 .011
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MRK 89.51 -.02 89.2 -118.8% Bearish ---- -.035 -.025
---------------------------------------------------------------------
MSFT 163.28 1.94 157.58 132.8% Bullish BLUE .223 .066 Bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NKE 102.16 1.26 101.78 16.3% Bullish BLUE .257 .069 Bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PFE 39.41 -.08 38.75 67.9% ------- RED -.065 -.039
---------------------------------------------------------------------
PG 124.88 .91 121.99 86.6% Bullish BLUE -.081 -.064
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TRV 136.26 .75 135.16 -33.4% Bullish BLUE .176 -.014
---------------------------------------------------------------------
UNH 285.85 -9.28 289.79 -97.2% ------- RED -.074 .058
---------------------------------------------------------------------
UTX 152.05 .19 153.19 -53.2% ------- ---- .006 -.007
---------------------------------------------------------------------
V 195.33 1.56 188.69 160.4% Bullish BLUE .31 .026
---------------------------------------------------------------------
VZ 59.15 .16 59.6 -94.1% Bearish BLUE -.111 -.091
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WBA 54.06 -.16 59.29 -487.5% Bearish RED -.214 -.096
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WMT 115.88 -.5 116.56 -75.8% ------- RED -.178 -.082
---------------------------------------------------------------------
DOW 69.8 .66 70.29 -76.6% Bearish BLUE .025 -.033
|
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/13/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 289.02 .78 285.74 35.5% Bullish BLUE .056 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 330.22 .3 337.28 -52.7% ------- RED -.274 -.109 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 327.95 2.24 322.73 66.4% Bullish BLUE .2 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 220.95 2.52 215.53 124.1% Bullish BLUE .284 .058 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 376.43 2.9 372.93 33% Bullish BLUE .219 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 165.96 1.07 164.8 18.5% Bullish BLUE .178 -.002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 98.12 2.57 92.77 187.2% Bullish BLUE .122 .131 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.96 .54 27.02 -55.8% Bullish BLUE .12 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 291.86 11.01 281.22 499.4% ------- BLUE .092 .381 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 273.66 10.66 247.98 484.1% Bullish BLUE .323 .416 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 119.16 -1.29 119.15 1.7% Bearish RED .08 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 145.82 -1.09 147.97 -53.4% Bearish RED .046 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 12.93 -.12 13.46 -312.4% Bearish ---- .047 .08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.58 -.37 10.77 -891.8% Bearish RED .082 .219 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 26.44 .43 25.29 202.6% Bullish BLUE .172 .02 |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200113
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 503 Bullish
NEWLOWS 16
MAXCP 143
MINCP 27
TTTNH 33
TTTNL 38
FASTUP 74
FASTDOWN 74
CPCROSSA 150 Bullish
CPCROSSD 43
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 9
ACCUMVER 26
HIGHIP21 57
HIUPPCT 63
REDSELL 73
AUGSELS7 33
TRAPDOOR 13
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/13/20
Bullish = 42
Bearish = 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COPPER 1 .875 .875 .875 .875 .875
ETFS .947 .912 .929 .929 .894 .894
SEMI .897 .906 .878 .878 .878 .841
CHINA .89 .872 .854 .836 .836 .836
SOLAR .882 .823 .823 .705 .705 .764
BONDFUND .881 .851 .861 .881 .841 .801
NASD-100 .876 .845 .865 .855 .804 .855
NIFTY .87 .814 .833 .851 .851 .87
BIGBANKS .857 .857 1 1 1 1
ELECTRON .856 .856 .816 .83 .83 .81
HACKERS .85 .8 .75 .75 .75 .8
UTILITY .85 .725 .675 .575 .625 .65
INDEXES .844 .822 .865 .881 .87 .897
COMPUTER .842 .789 .789 .736 .736 .684
SP-100 .833 .811 .855 .833 .811 .844
COMODITY .825 .775 .825 .775 .8 .775
GAMING .818 .772 .818 .863 .863 .818
HOSPITAL .818 .818 .818 .727 .636 .681
FOOD .814 .814 .851 .796 .833 .814
BEVERAGE .812 .687 .625 .625 .562 .875
GREEN .809 .761 .761 .714 .809 .761
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
DOWJONES .793 .724 .793 .724 .758 .827
FIDSTKS .782 .743 .804 .782 .759 .793
DJI-13 .769 .692 .769 .692 .692 .769
SP500 .756 .726 .743 .726 .699 .733
SOFTWARE .75 .733 .716 .716 .7 .716
REGBANKS .73 .653 .692 .692 .692 .769
RUS-1000 .717 .694 .701 .694 .675 .713
TRANSP .7 .65 .7 .65 .65 .5
BIOTECH .696 .713 .702 .713 .693 .681
RETAIL .686 .647 .627 .627 .607 .627
OILGAS .679 .716 .708 .694 .776 .805
MILITARY .678 .607 .714 .678 .642 .678
GOLD .666 .77 .75 .75 .895 .895
FINANCE .658 .623 .717 .705 .67 .729
GUNS .625 .562 .687 .75 .687 .687
HOMEBLDG .588 .647 .47 .588 .411 .47
INFRA .583 .611 .638 .638 .611 .694
REIT .579 .468 .4 .427 .393 .524
CHEM .56 .44 .5 .52 .56 .52
INDMATER .558 .493 .558 .584 .597 .584
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JETS .5 .5 .6 .5 .5 .5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INSURANC .461 .346 .538 .461 .423 .576
AUTO .435 .384 .487 .538 .564 .564
COAL 0 0 .2 .2 .4 .2
|
=======================================================================
1/10/2020 Peerless
remains on Buys. The daily breadth figures are still positive,
but by less wide margins recently. The NYSE Down Volume has been
heavier, too, of late and the Inverted Traders' Index has slipped into negative
territory. But bullishly, the 10-day ma of Up-Volume (blue) is still above the
10-day
ma of NYSE Down Volume and the A/D Line's super strength suggests any
DJI retreat will be shallow. The Seasonality charts show SPY or QQQ are
apt to stay strong another two months. Get to know previously recommended
Ballard Power (BLDP). It is the highest Power Rank stock in
our universe of 6,000
stocks, much like AMGEN was at the start of its wild take-off in 1991.
I would suggest that the DJI is still poised for a breakout
above the top of its
price channel and the flat resistance at the round-number 29000. If volume
increases and our Accumulation Index rises sharply, the resulting channel
breakout would set up a target of 31500.
The big indexes' upwards momentum does seem like a constant. This shows
that we should not under-estimate the attraction of the US stock market when
the Dollar remains reasonably firm, the 10-year rates are still under 2% and the
leading general market ETFs keep making new highs. If I am right, Friday's reversal
down may not matter. It owed to the Jobs Report being under the 150,000
level that most economists espected.
Of more concern is the seasonal tendency for the DJI to make
some
kind of top in early January in years of a Presidential Election. But even
here, we have the examples of 1976 and 1996 (see the previous Hotline)
to show us that an early "PE" (Presidential Election year) decline is not
an "iron law" of history; seasonality can be wrong. So, can cycles: it may
look like we are due for one of the market's periodic declines from the top
of the DJI's price channel, but we may be pleasantly surprised. By what,
I don't know. The market may be holding that back as the surprise.
 |
 |
The Seasonality charts for the DJI since 1915 and DIA since 2000 ,
shown
above, do show that the DJI tends to be somewhat lower at the end of the
first quarter than it was at the beginning of the year. As you have seen
at www.tigersoft.com/pivodown/INDEX.htm
we do have to take seriously
any new Peerless sells in January.
And with Boeing still being bombarded by bearish reports for
its new jet,
including insiders' emails saying that they would not themselves fly in the thing,
the risk to the high priced BA stock falling significantly below 320 seems high.
That would hit the DJI hard. So would bad news on Apple, which seems
unable to "do any wrong" judging from Wall Street's steady stream of buy
orders.
The NASDAQ (COMPQX) and QQQ Show More Bullishness
ahead
in their Tiger Seasonality charts. So, instead of buying more DIA for
the breakout over 29000, perhaps, we should buy QQQ or the NASDAQ
futures. Unlike the DJI
or DIA, the NASDAQ since 1992 and QQQ since 2000
have shown a typical tendency to rise until March.
 |
 |
Is BLDP the next AMGEN?
Ballard Power Systems is not a biotech. It is a Chinese-Canadian
hyrdogen-fuel cell company. It is a play on a leading alternative energy
technology that is getting wider and wider use in an era of Climate Change.
BLDP is in full vertical ascent mode now.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDP?p=BLDP&.tsrc=fin-srch
We ordinarily do not encourage chasing stocks like this. It breeds bad
trading habits. But this is how the really great stocks sometimes take-off.
Intense Big Money Accumulation
and very High Relative Strength
plus
Great Seasonality
BLDP, the highest Power Ranked stock now, looks great technically and also on
its Seasonality chart for the next six months. Now that it is moving, no one knows
where to buy it. It reminds me of AMGEN at the end of 1990 and early 1991 in
terms of its high Accumulation and its powerful take-off.
See http://tigersoft.com/Tiger-Blogs/9-6-2007/index.htm
 |
 |
|
Charts 1/10/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/10/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-10/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-10/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 11-10-2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE ---------------------- ----------------------------------------------- AAPL 310.33 .7 299.8 213.8% Bullish RED .272 .211 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 127.28 -.53 124.06 107.1% ------- RED .183 .02 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 329.92 -6.42 333.74 -42.5% ------- RED -.187 -.119 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 146.13 -1.18 148.34 -78.2% Bearish RED .184 -.03 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.13 -.19 47.8 -52.6% ------- RED .11 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 116.44 -1.07 120.6 -191.7% Bearish RED -.167 -.078 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 144.62 -.21 145.65 -64.6% Bearish RED -.119 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 242.11 -.49 233.95 222.8% Bullish RED -.008 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 224.22 -.97 219.96 119.7% Bullish RED .18 -.106 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 136.69 -.05 134.1 87.1% Bullish RED .021 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 58.94 -.36 59.93 -97.6% ------- RED .095 -.018 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 145.06 -.33 144.1 26.9% ------- RED .149 .059 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 136.07 -1.37 138.23 -82.6% Bullish RED -.13 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 55.53 .19 54.67 76.8% ------- ---- .038 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 207.27 -1.08 202.33 176.3% Bullish RED .245 .012 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 180.47 -.73 178.62 56.3% ------- RED .44 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 89.53 .15 91.64 -95.5% Bearish RED -.089 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 161.34 -.75 159.03 85.3% ------- RED .215 .065 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 100.9 -.58 101.83 -50.1% ------- RED .248 .066 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 39.49 .6 38.88 72% ------- BLUE-.089 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 123.97 .12 122.75 56.6% ------- BLUE-.129 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 135.51 -2.11 137.17 -55.2% Bullish RED .111 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 295.13 .91 291.55 95.7% ------- RED .05 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 151.86 -1.79 153.68 -48.5% ------- RED .031 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 193.77 .52 189.19 109.4% Bullish BLUE .267 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 58.99 .14 60.27 -118% Bearish -----.145 -.084 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 54.22 -.46 59.59 -421.2% Bearish RED -.188 -.101 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 116.38 -.98 117.65 -64.5% ------- RED -.18 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 69.14 -.62 70.87 -84.9% Bearish RED -.022 -.054 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/10/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 288.24 -1.32 286.98 33.4% ------- RED .052 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 329.92 -6.42 333.74 -42.5% ------- RED -.187 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 325.71 -.94 323.64 50.9% ------- RED .187 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 218.43 -.56 215.56 98.3% Bullish RED .267 .05 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 373.53 -1.15 373.96 -5.9% ------- RED .197 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 164.89 -.62 165.35 -7.3% ------- RED .133 -.013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 95.55 -1.02 94.57 54.4% Bullish RED .051 .106 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.42 -.32 27.26 -107.3% Bearish RED .093 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 280.85 -5.86 264 83.8% ------- RED .11 .326 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 263 -1.84 248.86 313.6% Bullish RED .298 .385 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 120.45 -.59 119.12 87.4% ------- RED .074 .057 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 146.91 .88 147.39 35.8% ------- BLUE .1 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.05 -.09 13.76 -171.9% ------- ---- .079 .038 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 8.95 -.28 10.32 -536.6% ------- RED .057 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 26.01 .16 25.4 178.6% Bullish ---- .157 .015 |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200110
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 213 Bullish NH/NL ratio
NEWLOWS 8
MAXCP 38 Ratio of MAXCP/NHs seems low
MINCP 25
TTTNH 18
TTTNL 47 Bearish
FASTUP 73
FASTDOWN 55
CPCROSSA 45
CPCROSSD 95 Bearish short-term
BIGVOLUP 2
BIGVODN 8
ACCUMVER 27
HIGHIP21 58
HIUPPCT 57
REDSELL 77
AUGSELS7 36
TRAPDOOR 14
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA 1/10/20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ETFS .912 .929 .929 .894 .894 .894 SEMI .906 .878 .878 .878 .841 .859 COPPER .875 .875 .875 .875 .875 1 CHINA .872 .854 .836 .836 .836 .836 BIGBANKS .857 1 1 1 1 1 ELECTRON .856 .816 .83 .83 .81 .823 BONDFUND .851 .861 .881 .841 .801 .801 NASD-100 .845 .876 .865 .804 .865 .845 SOLAR .823 .823 .705 .705 .764 .764 INDEXES .822 .865 .881 .87 .892 .897 HOSPITAL .818 .818 .727 .636 .681 .681 FOOD .814 .851 .796 .833 .814 .796 NIFTY .814 .833 .851 .851 .87 .833 SP-100 .811 .855 .833 .811 .844 .833 EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 HACKERS .8 .8 .75 .75 .8 .65 COMPUTER .789 .789 .736 .736 .684 .684 COMODITY .775 .825 .775 .8 .775 .75 GAMING .772 .818 .863 .863 .818 .818 GOLD .77 .75 .75 .895 .895 .875 GREEN .761 .761 .714 .809 .761 .761 FIDSTKS .743 .804 .782 .759 .798 .793 SOFTWARE .733 .733 .716 .7 .716 .666 SP500 .726 .745 .726 .699 .739 .733 UTILITY .725 .675 .575 .625 .65 .625 DOWJONES .724 .793 .724 .758 .827 .862 OILGAS .716 .708 .694 .776 .805 .776 BIOTECH .708 .697 .708 .691 .685 .673 RUS-1000 .694 .702 .694 .675 .72 .728 DJI-13 .692 .769 .692 .692 .769 .769 BEVERAGE .687 .625 .625 .562 .875 .687 REGBANKS .653 .692 .692 .692 .846 .884 TRANSP .65 .7 .65 .65 .5 .6 HOMEBLDG .647 .47 .588 .411 .47 .47 RETAIL .647 .627 .627 .607 .647 .627 FINANCE .623 .717 .705 .67 .729 .764 INFRA .611 .638 .638 .611 .694 .638 MILITARY .607 .714 .678 .642 .678 .642 GUNS .562 .687 .75 .687 .687 .687 JETS .5 .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 INDMATER .493 .558 .584 .597 .61 .649 REIT .468 .4 .427 .393 .524 .537 CHEM .44 .5 .52 .56 .54 .54 AUTO .384 .487 .538 .564 .589 .717 INSURANC .346 .538 .461 .423 .576 .576 COAL 0 .2 .2 .4 .2 .2 |
====================================================================
1/9/2020 Peerless
remains on Buys. With Iran now forced to focus on how
its missile system shot-down a Jet Airliner and killed 175, Wall Street
can get back to the business of celebrating low interest rates, record
profits, an economy with near record peace-time Unemployment
and a year-to-year CPI well below 4%.
DJI is on verge of channel breakout that
could take it 2500 points higher.
See below how high the NASDAQ's Accumulation is now and
that its ITRS shows it is outperforming the DJI by +3.6%
over the last 50-trading days. It is at the top of its price
channel. Above this level, it has no obvious technical points
for sell orders to congregate. This is settiing up a "vertical
ascent" and looks very bullish.
NASDAQ
The DJI is challenging the top of its price channel, too. A close above that
level would set up a new DJI target of 31500, considering that that the
price channel the DJI is 2500 points wide and classic technical analysis
tells us to add that number to the point of channel-breakout to obtain
a new minimum price objective.
Usually the DJI pulls back in early January in a Presidential
Election
year. That this is not happening must be taken as a very bullish sign,
much like the exceptional strength it showed in October. A strong
Jobs figure tomorrow, above 200,000, would likely ignite the take-off
over 29000. Buy back the 1/2 positions sold a few
days ago
in QQQ and DIA. Buy more MSFT and BLDP. High IP21 readings
(above +.23), a positive ITRS and new price highs seems to be a good
way pick winners now.
Instead of comparing the current DJI chart with what is typical at the
start of a Presidential Election year, it now looks like we should be comparing
the chart to the very strongest starts. The problem here is that we find
very few DJI take-offs at the start of the year. The best examples I can
find are from January 1976 and January 1996. In both of these cases our
IP21 (Accum. Index) surged to new highs. Our is rising, but not close to
a 12-month high. For the IP21 now to keep rising steeply we will need
to see rising volume, day-to-day, and no willingness on the part of the
DJI to sell off at the close. We'll be watching this.
January Take-offs in Presidential Election years
are rare. The two best examples show IP21 bulges
tp 12-month highs.
| 1975-1976 |
1995-1996 |
|
Charts 1/9/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/9/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-9/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-9/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 11-9-2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE ---------------------- ----------------------------------------------- AAPL 309.63 6.44 297.43 154.8% Bullish BLUE .289 .174 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 127.81 2.27 124.6 78.6% ------- BLUE .213 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 336.34 4.97 332.76 45.3% Bullish BLUE-.164 -.083 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 147.31 -.37 148.44 -108.6% Bullish RED .223 -.017 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.32 -.2 47.63 -115.1% ------- RED .166 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 117.51 -.19 121.01 -163.4% Bearish BLUE-.096 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 144.83 -.57 146.5 -115.2% Bearish RED -.097 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 242.6 4.84 231.58 176.5% Bullish BLUE .009 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 225.19 3.4 218.93 125.8% Bullish BLUE .181 -.118 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 136.74 1.43 134.34 49% Bullish BLUE .023 -.064 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 59.3 .33 60.1 -128.9% ------- BLUE .119 -.024 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 145.39 .43 144.28 -20% ------- RED .144 .056 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 137.44 .5 138.34 -132.2% Bullish RED -.077 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 55.34 .99 54.69 32.1% ------- BLUE .048 -.036 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 208.35 2.44 200.08 186.8% Bullish BLUE .287 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 181.2 .57 178.45 33.5% ------- RED .441 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 89.38 .78 91.25 -146.9% Bearish BLUE-.054 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 162.09 2 158.62 46.2% ------ BLUE .245 .055 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.48 -.07 101.92 -35.3% Bullish RED .274 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 38.89 -.17 38.93 -32.1% Bearish RED -.098 -.026 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 123.85 1.34 122.58 17.9% Bearish BLUE-.158 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 137.62 1.01 137.02 4% Bullish BLUE .158 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 294.22 -1.68 289.54 29.5% ------- RED .068 .122 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.65 .23 153.35 16.6% ------- RED .021 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 193.25 1.33 189.6 56% Bullish BLUE .244 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 58.85 -.86 60.4 -182.7% Bearish -----.101 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 54.68 -1.15 59.08 -375.6% Bearish RED -.173 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 117.36 1.2 117.89 -67.3% ------- BLUE-.182 -.085 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 69.76 .53 70.33 -81.1% Bearish BLUE-.007 -.053 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/9/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 289.56 2.16 286.32 16.4% ------- BLUE .099 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 336.34 4.97 332.76 45.3% Bullish BLUE-.164 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 326.65 2.2 322.41 27.5% ------- BLUE .202 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 218.99 1.84 214.18 65.6% ------- ---- .274 .039 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 374.68 1.08 373.97 -16.7% ------- RED .207 -.025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 165.51 .2 165.13 -8.2% ------- RED .15 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 96.57 1.85 94.52 16.9% Bullish BLUE .073 .121 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 26.74 -.32 27 -145.4% Bearish RED .096 -.056 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 286.71 4.87 276.19 -94.1% ------- RED .134 .313 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 264.84 8.67 247.13 191.4% Bullish BLUE .338 .35 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 121.04 .82 118.36 48.2% ------- BLUE .134 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 146.03 -.83 145.86 71% Bearish ---- .065 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL 146.03 -.83 145.86 71% Bullish ---- .06 13.192 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.14 .12 13.51 -67.1% ------- BLUE .062 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 9.23 -.28 10.02 -104.9% ------- RED .078 .265 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 25.85 .09 25.1 45.2% Bullish RED .181 .007 |
Table 2 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200109
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 403 Bullish
NEWLOWS 15
MAXCP 117
MINCP 26
TTTNH 25
TTTNL 33
FASTUP 66
FASTDOWN 53
CPCROSSA 70
CPCROSSD 74
BIGVOLUP 8
BIGVODN 3
ACCUMVER 23
HIGHIP21 65
HIUPPCT 48
VHIP21 140
LOWACCUM 107
REDSELL 81
AUGSELS7 30
TRAPDOOR 13
|
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/9/20
Bullish = 41
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
ETFS .929 .929 .894 .894 .894 .929
SEMI .878 .878 .878 .841 .859 .878
NASD-100 .876 .876 .814 .865 .845 .896
COPPER .875 .875 .875 .875 1 1
INDEXES .865 .881 .87 .892 .897 .865
BONDFUND .861 .881 .841 .801 .801 .712
SP-100 .855 .833 .811 .844 .833 .866
CHINA .854 .836 .836 .836 .836 .836
FOOD .851 .796 .833 .814 .814 .87
NIFTY .833 .851 .851 .87 .833 .814
COMODITY .825 .775 .8 .775 .775 .825
SOLAR .823 .705 .705 .764 .764 .764
GAMING .818 .863 .863 .818 .909 .863
HOSPITAL .818 .727 .636 .681 .681 .681
ELECTRON .816 .83 .83 .81 .83 .849
FIDSTKS .804 .782 .759 .798 .793 .832
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HACKERS .8 .8 .75 .8 .65 .7
COMPUTER .789 .736 .736 .684 .684 .789
DJI-13 .769 .692 .692 .769 .769 .769
DOWJONES .766 .733 .766 .833 .866 .866
GREEN .761 .714 .809 .761 .761 .761
GOLD .75 .75 .895 .895 .875 .916
SP500 .745 .728 .699 .739 .733 .76
SOFTWARE .733 .733 .7 .716 .666 .65
FINANCE .717 .705 .67 .729 .764 .788
MILITARY .714 .678 .642 .678 .642 .571
OILGAS .708 .694 .776 .805 .776 .723
RUS-1000 .702 .695 .675 .72 .732 .754
TRANSP .7 .65 .65 .5 .6 .7
BIOTECH .694 .705 .688 .685 .682 .702
REGBANKS .692 .692 .692 .846 .923 .923
GUNS .687 .75 .687 .687 .687 .625
UTILITY .675 .575 .625 .65 .625 .625
INFRA .638 .638 .611 .694 .638 .694
RETAIL .627 .627 .607 .647 .627 .627
BEVERAGE .625 .625 .562 .875 .687 .687
JETS .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 .7
INDMATER .558 .584 .597 .61 .662 .714
INSURANC .538 .461 .423 .576 .576 .576
===========================================================================================
CHEM .5 .52 .56 .54 .58 .68
===========================================================================================
AUTO .487 .538 .564 .589 .743 .794
HOMEBLDG .47 .588 .411 .47 .47 .352
REIT .4 .427 .393 .524 .537 .42
COAL .2 .2 .4 .2 .2 .2
Bearish = 4
|
====================================================================
1/8/2020 Peerless
remains on Buys. The internals of the market look
reasonably safe. With Iran apparently satisifed with a token
counter-attack, Wall Street bulls pushed the market back towards
the DJI's 29000 resistance. A breakout above that would have
be bullishly constued and set up the round number, 30000, as
a target.
But at this stage, it's not clear that the DJI will be able to breakout
past 29000. Even so, the strongest DJI-30 stocks look like they
will continue to move higher. Consider purchasing the highest
Power Ranked SP-500 and Nasdaq-100 stocks with the most
promising technicals. I show three below.
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Charts 1/8/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/8/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-8/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-8/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 1/8/2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 303.19 4.8 300.35 160.1% Bullish BLUE .238 .164 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 125.54 2.13 125.85 42.2% ------- BLUE .146 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 331.37 -5.91 333.32 84.3% Bearish RED -.167 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 147.68 1.3 150.53 0% Bullish BLUE .222 -.009 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.52 .03 48.42 -46% ------- BLUE .161 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 117.7 -1.36 121.43 -116.6% ------- RED -.119 -.074 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 145.4 -.3 148.2 26.3% Bearish RED -.094 .045 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 237.76 2.27 234.32 168% Bullish BLUE-.069 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 221.79 3.27 219.66 77.8% Bullish BLUE .159 -.12 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 135.31 1.12 135.42 47.2% ------- BLUE-.023 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 58.97 .04 60.84 -73.4% ------- BLUE .072 -.022 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 144.96 -.02 145.97 -31.4% ------- BLUE .163 .063 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 136.94 1.06 141.09 -88.8% Bullish BLUE-.047 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 54.35 .1 54.99 -91.3% ------- BLUE-.04 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 205.91 3.28 200.79 206.8% Bullish BLUE .249 -.008 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 180.63 2.73 180 118.1% ------- BLUE .412 .022 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 88.6 -.6 92.04 -129.1% Bearish RED -.036 .011 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 160.09 2.51 160.62 75.3% ------- BLUE .197 .072 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.55 -.23 102.2 11.8% Bullish BLUE .285 .051 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 39.06 .31 39.14 -15.4% ------- BLUE-.05 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 122.51 .52 123.41 -97.1% Bearish BLUE-.17 -.072 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 136.61 1.45 137.51 -12.4% ------- BLUE .156 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 295.9 6.11 292.5 32.9% ------- BLUE .058 .142 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.42 .23 153.14 119.9% ------- BLUE-.003 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 191.92 3.23 191.12 106.2% Bullish BLUE .28 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 59.71 .11 61.05 -139.6% Bearish -----.037 -.077 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 55.83 -3.46 59.08 -264.4% Bearish RED -.101 -.059 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 116.16 -.4 118.94 -113.6% Bearish RED -.255 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 69.23 -1.06 70.9 -39% Bearish RED -.029 -.066 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/8/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 287.4 1.66 288.62 40.1% ------- BLUE .053 ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 331.37 -5.91 333.32 84.3% Bearish RED -.167 -.091 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 324.45 1.72 324.87 40.1% ------- BLUE .148 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 217.15 1.62 216.16 105.7% ------- BLUE .226 .044 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 373.6 .67 375.93 -23.8% ------- BLUE .184 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 165.31 .51 165.78 -10.9% ------- BLUE .143 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 94.72 1.95 96.25 4.2% Bullish BLUE .037 .112 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27.06 .04 27.53 -226.1% ------- BLUE .105 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 281.84 .62 291.96 126.4% ------- RED .104 .364 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 256.17 8.19 255.23 290.5% Bullish BLUE .26 .359 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 120.22 1.07 119.89 -12.1% ------- BLUE .105 .073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 146.86 -1.11 143.95 136% Bearish RED .048 -.031 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.02 -.44 13.32 -85.4% ------- RED .034 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 9.51 -1.26 9.44 -144% ------- RED .114 .237 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSX 25.76 .47 25.62 156.3% Bullish BLUE .163 .002 |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200108
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 270 Bullish
NEWLOWS 7
MAXCP 148
MINCP 27
TTTNH 49
TTTNL 26
FASTUP 76
FASTDOWN 44
CPCROSSA 90
CPCROSSD 68
BIGVOLUP 6
BIGVODN 15
ACCUMVER 17
HIGHIP21 55
HIUPPCT 38
VHIP21 134
LOWACCUM 107
REDSELL 83
AUGSELS7 27
TRAPDOOR 13
|
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/8/20
Bullish = 42
Bearish = 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
ETFS .929 .894 .894 .894 .929 .912
BONDFUND .881 .841 .801 .801 .712 .623
INDEXES .881 .87 .892 .897 .86 .881
SEMI .878 .878 .841 .859 .878 .831
NASD-100 .876 .824 .876 .845 .896 .876
COPPER .875 .875 .875 1 1 .875
GAMING .863 .863 .818 .909 .909 .818
NIFTY .851 .851 .87 .833 .814 .796
CHINA .836 .836 .836 .836 .836 .818
SP-100 .833 .811 .844 .833 .866 .844
ELECTRON .83 .83 .81 .83 .849 .797
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HACKERS .8 .8 .8 .65 .7 .7
FOOD .796 .833 .814 .814 .87 .851
FIDSTKS .782 .759 .798 .793 .832 .826
COMODITY .775 .8 .775 .775 .825 .8
GOLD .75 .895 .895 .875 .916 .854
GUNS .75 .687 .687 .687 .625 .625
COMPUTER .736 .736 .684 .684 .789 .684
DOWJONES .733 .766 .833 .866 .866 .833
SOFTWARE .733 .716 .716 .666 .65 .633
SP500 .728 .701 .739 .733 .76 .796
HOSPITAL .727 .636 .681 .681 .681 .681
GREEN .714 .809 .761 .761 .761 .761
FINANCE .705 .67 .729 .764 .788 .788
SOLAR .705 .705 .764 .764 .764 .705
BIOTECH .702 .685 .682 .682 .708 .682
RUS-1000 .695 .676 .72 .732 .751 .781
OILGAS .694 .776 .805 .776 .723 .686
DJI-13 .692 .692 .769 .769 .769 .692
REGBANKS .692 .692 .846 .923 .923 .961
MILITARY .678 .642 .678 .642 .571 .571
TRANSP .65 .65 .5 .6 .7 .7
INFRA .638 .611 .694 .638 .694 .666
RETAIL .627 .607 .647 .627 .627 .666
BEVERAGE .625 .562 .875 .687 .687 .875
HOMEBLDG .588 .411 .47 .47 .352 .294
INDMATER .584 .597 .61 .662 .727 .766
UTILITY .575 .625 .65 .625 .625 .8
AUTO .538 .564 .589 .743 .794 .743
CHEM .52 .56 .54 .58 .68 .8
=============================================================================================
JETS .5 .5 .5 .5 .7 .8
=============================================================================================
INSURANC .461 .423 .576 .576 .576 .576
REIT .427 .393 .524 .537 .427 .579
COAL .2 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2
|
====================================================================
1/7/2020 Peerless remains on Buys. The internals of the market still look
safe. The A/D Line is uptrending and the IP21-Accumulation
Index is rising, not falling. The Closing Powers have actually
moved higher this weak and 71% of all the stocks and ETFs we
get data for are above their 65-dma. Only 3 of the 46 Industry
groups listed in Table 4 show a majority of their component-stocks
are below their 65-dma. New highs greatly outnumber new lows.
Speculative confidence remains strong: the NASDAQ continues
to outperform the DJI. That is what our "NASDJI" measures below.
War Jitters Are Real and So May Be The Threat of
War
Pres. Trump is a wild card. What was Iran planning before their
General was killed? Does Trump want to rally the country around
the flag going into the Election. George Bush certainly did.
The Election's uncertainties will also confound the market. January in
a Presidential Election year has tended not to do well. At least, since 1968
the DJI has risen only 46.2% of the time and lost on average 1.2% over the
next two weeks. After 42 trading, the DJIA is still down 0.4% on
average after January 7th in PE years. The dangers of a war with Iran
will surely be with us for that long.
So, we need to keep some cash in reserve to buy QQQ and DIA
if they do pullback or for some new high Accumulation flat-top
breakouts among our Bullish MAXCPs. My thinking now is that the
round-number 28000 on the DJI will be good support unless we get
some unexpectedly bearish economic news. The Dollar is holding
firm and the yield 10-year on the 10-year Bond is a most
uncompetitive 1.82%, by historical standards. Neither God nor Crude
Oil shows impressive big-money Accumulation. Perhaps, "big
money" has been taken by surprise, but it's hard for me to recommend them
until we see higher levels of IP21-Accumulation. They are uptrending
and traders will, no doubt, buy them and place stops beneath their
uptrend-lines.
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Charts 1/7/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/7/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-7/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-7/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 1/7/2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 298.39 -1.41 293.65 115.8% Bullish RED .242 .159 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 123.41 -.65 124.49 -35.7% ------- RED .12 -.006 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 337.28 3.54 325.76 164.7% ------- BLUE-.142 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 146.38 -1.96 147.68 -38.4% ------- RED .211 .027 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.49 -.31 47.96 -10.4% ------- RED .133 -.043 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 119.06 -1.54 120.51 -32.7% ------- BLUE-.071 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 145.7 .05 144.63 66.2% Bearish RED -.101 .052 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 235.49 1.54 229.93 122.7% Bullish BLUE-.013 .05 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 218.52 -1.44 218.38 27.6% Bullish RED .121 -.132 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 134.19 .09 134.04 51.4% ------- BLUE-.057 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 58.93 -1 59.85 -57.4% ------- RED .082 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 144.98 .88 145.87 -11% ------- BLUE .151 .071 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 135.88 -2.35 139.4 -98.8% Bullish RED -.078 .021 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 54.25 -.42 55.35 -92.7% ------- RED -.014 -.073 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 202.63 .3 197.61 143.3% Bullish BLUE .228 -.033 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 177.9 -.72 176.42 58.2% ------- RED .431 .033 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 89.2 -2.44 90.95 -100.1% Bearish RED -.002 .014 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 157.58 -1.45 157.7 -.3% ------- RED .201 .06 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.78 -.05 101.31 48.2% Bullish BLUE .295 .046 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 38.75 -.13 39.18 -20.5% ------- RED -.082 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 121.99 -.76 124.9 -100.3% Bearish RED -.189 -.089 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 135.16 -2.01 136.95 -48.5% ------- RED .181 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 289.79 -1.76 293.98 -69.5% ------- RED .003 .119 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.19 -.49 149.76 108.9% ------- BLUE .023 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 188.69 -.5 187.9 22.7% Bullish RED .227 .005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 59.6 -.67 61.4 -132.3% Bearish RED .023 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 59.29 -.3 58.96 32.1% Bearish BLUE-.149 .023 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 116.56 -1.09 118.84 -119.8% Bearish RED -.213 -.088 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 70.29 -.58 69.78 57.6% ------- RED .031 -.049 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/7/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 285.74 -1.24 285.1 21.1% ------- RED .073 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 337.28 3.54 325.76 164.7% ------- BLUE-.142 -.087 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 322.73 -.91 321.86 25.6% ------- RED .153 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 215.53 -.03 212.61 77.5% ------- RED .236 .044 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 372.93 -1.03 375.38 -27.7% ------- ---- .179 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 164.8 -.55 165.67 -19.3% ------- ---- .124 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 92.77 -1.8 94.64 -48.6% ------- RED .013 .095 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27.02 -.24 28.3 -191.8% ------- RED .133 .018 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 281.22 17.22 274.82 149.1% ------- BLUE .126 .448 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 247.98 -.88 241.75 162.2% Bullish RED .267 .361 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 119.15 .03 120.51 -43.1% Bearish ---- .118 .061 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 147.97 .58 142.9 184.7% Bullish BLUE .126 -.021 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.46 -.3 13.25 11.1% ------- RED .141 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 10.77 .45 9.8 730.8% ------- BLUE .218 .532 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200107
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 175 Bullish
NEWLOWS 5
MAXCP 90
MINCP 15
TTTNH 25
TTTNL 26
FASTUP 97
FASTDOWN 29
CPCROSSA 64
CPCROSSD 107
BIGVOLUP 7
BIGVODN 10
ACCUMVER 20
HIGHIP21 57
HIUPPCT 33
VHIP21 132
LOWACCUM 108
REDSELL 82
AUGSELS7 29
TRAPDOOR 13
|
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/7/20
Bullish = 41
Bearish = 4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
GOLD .895 .895 .875 .916 .854 .833
ETFS .894 .894 .894 .929 .912 .877
SEMI .878 .841 .859 .878 .841 .822
COPPER .875 .875 1 1 1 1
INDEXES .87 .892 .897 .86 .87 .903
GAMING .863 .818 .909 .909 .818 .863
NIFTY .851 .87 .833 .814 .796 .796
BONDFUND .841 .801 .801 .712 .613 .633
CHINA .836 .836 .836 .836 .818 .781
ELECTRON .83 .81 .83 .849 .803 .784
FOOD .83 .811 .811 .867 .849 .849
NASD-100 .824 .886 .855 .896 .876 .845
SP-100 .811 .844 .833 .866 .844 .844
GREEN .809 .761 .761 .761 .761 .761
COMODITY .8 .775 .775 .825 .8 .8
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
HACKERS .8 .85 .65 .7 .7 .65
OILGAS .77 .8 .77 .718 .681 .651
FIDSTKS .759 .798 .793 .832 .826 .793
DOWJONES-30 .758 .827 .862 .862 .827 .862
COMPUTER .736 .684 .684 .789 .684 .631
SOFTWARE .716 .733 .666 .65 .633 .633
SOLAR .705 .764 .764 .764 .705 .705
SP500 .701 .741 .733 .76 .796 .758
DJI-13 .692 .769 .769 .769 .692 .692
REGBANKS .692 .846 .923 .923 .961 .923
GUNS .687 .687 .687 .625 .625 .687
BIOTECH .682 .679 .679 .708 .685 .679
RUS-1000 .676 .721 .732 .751 .781 .75
FINANCE .67 .729 .764 .788 .788 .776
TRANSP .65 .5 .6 .7 .7 .7
MILITARY .642 .678 .642 .571 .571 .607
HOSPITAL .636 .681 .681 .681 .681 .681
UTILITY .625 .65 .625 .625 .8 .725
INFRA .611 .694 .638 .694 .666 .666
RETAIL .607 .647 .627 .627 .666 .666
INDMATER .597 .61 .662 .727 .766 .727
AUTO .564 .589 .743 .794 .743 .743
BEVERAGE .562 .875 .687 .687 .875 .75
CHEM .56 .54 .58 .68 .8 .72
==========================================================================================
JETS .5 .5 .5 .7 .8 .8
==========================================================================================
INSURANC .423 .576 .576 .576 .576 .576
HOMEBLDG .411 .47 .47 .352 .294 .235
COAL .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2
REIT .393 .524 .537 .427 .579 .544
|
====================================================================
1/6/2020 Peerless remains on Buys. We did come close to a Sell S12.
Near
S12s early in January are particularly reliable when the DJI has had
a long advance in the previous year, there is a rising wedge pattern
and the clouds of war are gathering. As a result, I suggested selling
some of your positions in DIA and QQQ as a precaution. The seasonality
of these Presidential Election years starting in 1968 shows only a 30%
probability of rising over the next week and a 50% chance over the next month.
But Peerless is still on a Buy and there is a very good chance that it
will be a while before Iran retaliates. Morover interest rates are low
and not rising. The Dollar is down, but steady. Oil prices are not shooting
up. And Friday could well bring a very positive Jobs' Report. Let's
see if leaders like AAPL in its accelerating uptrend can breakout above
the top of its rising resistance, as BLDP (our high Accumuation - low priced
favorite) has just done. A spectacular vertical advance by AAPL would
certainly spur on the DJI to breakout past 29000.
 |
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Charts 1/6/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/6/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-6/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-6/BEARISH.htm |
||||
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 1/6/2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 299.8 2.37 291.52 169.8% Bullish BLUE .29 .163 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 124.06 -.54 124.3 -45.2% ------- BLUE .181 -.005 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 333.74 .98 326.4 54.6% Bearish BLUE-.182 -.09 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 148.34 -.1 147.52 2% ------- BLUE .26 .026 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.8 .17 47.59 3.1% ------- BLUE .083 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 120.6 -.41 119.85 12.4% ------- RED -.131 -.048 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 145.65 -.85 143.77 -3.4% Bearish BLUE-.103 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 233.95 2.37 229.8 71.1% ------- BLUE .058 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 219.96 1.03 217.31 -.2% Bullish BLUE .124 -.133 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 134.1 -.24 132.81 -43.5% Bearish BLUE-.092 -.072 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 59.93 -.17 59.62 -12.5% ------- BLUE .131 .089 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 144.1 -.18 145.3 -56.7% ------- BLUE .144 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 138.23 -.11 138.63 -32.7% ------- BLUE-.007 .035 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 54.67 -.02 55.27 -61.7% ------- RED .048 -.069 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 202.33 2.25 196.91 104.7% ------- BLUE .199 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 178.62 .17 175.83 38.3% ------- BLUE .39 -.011 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 91.64 .39 91.03 7.7% ------- BLUE .111 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 159.03 .41 157.59 2.2% ------- BLUE .246 .089 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.83 -.09 100.8 12.8% ------- BLUE .334 .033 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 38.88 -.05 38.91 -56.3% ------- BLUE-.053 -.012 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 122.75 .17 124.47 -134.4% Bearish RED -.096 -.072 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 137.17 .15 136.49 13.5% ------- BLUE .19 -.032 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 291.55 2.01 293.85 -75.4% ------- BLUE .037 .107 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.68 .33 149.88 112.4% ------- BLUE .019 .029 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 189.19 -.41 187.83 -5.3% ------- BLUE .276 .034 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 60.27 -.13 61.21 -103.1% Bearish BLUE .103 -.08 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 59.59 .51 58.91 48.3% Bearish BLUE-.156 .022 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 117.65 -.24 119.4 -81.6% Bearish BLUE-.151 -.084 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 70.87 .54 69.48 69.9% ------- BLUE-.021 -.054
|
====================================================================
1/3/2020 A
decline to 28000 is probably coming, at least. Sell 50% of your
DIA and QQQ holdings and take some profits in the leading NASDAQ
stocks. The middle of the day is often a better time to sell than when
the DJI is down 100 or more at the opening.
We have no new Peerless Sell signal, but we did come very close
to a Sell S12 Thursday and Friday. See the new study tonight
showing the risks inherent in a near Sell S12 and a pivot down in
in the first week of January.
www.tigersoft.com/PIVODOWN/INDEX.htm
.
The DJI's rising wedge pattern, as we feared, has prevented a rally close enough
to the upper band to yield a proper Sell S12. I will have to spend some time
working on a revised Sell S12 that takes into account the wedge pattern and the
size of the previous year's advance. The previous
year's advance
should be considerable.
1/2/2020
la/ma= 1.023 IP21= +.042
The history of war jitters occurring at the start of a new
year clearly
shows a pattern of subsequent declines. The Peerless system, of
course, does not know or care why the market is going up or down,
it is based only on bands, momentum, internal strength indicators and
seasonality. But we should not be chained to using only technical analysis.
Just as we can factor in the bullishness of tax cuts, drops
in interest rate and
sweeping deregulation, so too, I think we have to factor in the very real dangers
of a new war, especially one in the Middle East.
Look at the Peerless charts below showing
January 1940 (when the NAZI army had just conquered Poland) or
January 1941 (when Japan's war machine conquering all of SE Asia
and the US threatened an Oil Embargo) or
Late December 1961 (when the Cubans were planning soon to set up
Soviet missiles as a deterrent against another Bay of Pigs Invasion or
January 1966 (when JCS told LBJ he needed to put 500,000 US troops in
Vietnam for the next five years).
January 2003 when George Bush II began preparing an
invasion of Iraq to avenge 9/11.
Jan 1940 |
Jan 1941 |
Dec 1961 |
Jan 1966 |
Jan 2003 |
The fact is that the coming of War that involves the
US brings market declines
in the DJIA. I can't easily imagine, at this point, just how the US and Iran
can avoid a far-reaching conflict in the volatile Middle East. Powerful US
Oil interests are too deeply embedded for it to be otherwise. Trump's
widespread unpopularity adds a dangerous internal component much like
LBJ's war in Vietnam did. And the US will inevitably be seen as a bully
and an imperialist outsider.
Even without the threat of war, we know from numerous past
Hotlines
that early January pivots-down and near Sell S12s (Low IP21 with
DJI 1.4% - 4.4% over 21-day ma) are quite dangerous. I've shown how
profit-taking in the new year following a big advance brought sells off
in early January 1916 and 1928, both before we could apply the lessons
of Peeless.
My new study today adds even more empasis to these concerns.
See www.tigersoft.com/PIVODOWN/INDEX.htm
for all the charts.
What I found was starting in 1929, early January Sell S12s (actual or "near")
brought on 18 declines below the lower band.
6 declines to the lower band.
and only 7 significant advances.
1/5/1931 1.016 -75
-.059 -443 Rose to 3.5% upper
band and then fell
to 3.5% LB.
1/5/1933 1.041 -7
-.045 -59
Rose past upper band and thenFell
quickly below LB
1/3/1935 1.032 +28
-.014 -15 Rose
to upper band and then fell to 3% LB.
PE 1/2/1936 1.015 +38 -.110
-22 Rose
a long ways after testing rising 65-dma.
1/6/1938 1.032 +74
-.104 -224 Rose for two
days more, then Fell quickly below
LB
---------
1/3/1939 1.022 -9
+.042 -89 Fell quickly below LB
PE 1/4/1940
1.022 +70 +.042 +54
Fell
quickly to 3.5% LB.
War expected
All positive - does not prevent a decline.
1/6/1941
1.017 +12 -.080
-30 Fell quickly below LB
War expected
1/2/1942
1.022 -55 +.039
-238 Fell quickly below LB
War.
1/6/1949
1.020 -6 -.016
-101 Fell
to slightly below first test of LB
----------
1/3/1958
1.019 -13 -.049
-101 Rose for next five weeks. Basing.
PE 1/5/1960
1.018 +4 -.038
-170 Fell quickly below LB
1/4/1963
1.020 +30 +.030 -104 Rose for next eight weeks.
1/4/1965
1.014 +4 -.095
-288 Rose for next eight weeks.
low
1/5/1966
1.023 +54 -.026
+8 Fell
quickly below LB War.
------------
1/2/1968 1.021 +60
+.023 +7 Fell quickly below LB
All positive
1/2/1970
1.026 -87 -.053
-2 Fell
quickly below LB
1/3/1972
1.019 +218 +.037
+2 Rose for next
eight weeks.
1/3/1973
1.021 -42 +.011
-1 Rose to 3.5% upper
band and then Fell quickly below LB
1/2/1974
1.032 -86 -.008
-2 Rose for two
days more above 3.5% UB, then fell below LB.
-------------
1/2/1981
1.029 -71 -.040
-5 Rose for two days
more above 3.5% UB, then fell to LB.
1/5/1984
1.019 +5 -.024
+0 Fell
quickly below LB
1/6/1989
1.016 +90 +.04
+8
All positive
(1/3/1990 1.027 +36
+.08
-4 Fell
quickly below LB )
too high
1/3/1997
1.017 +17 +.027
-27 Bull market starting.
1/4/2002
1.024 +269 +.040
0 Fell
quickly to 3% LB.
-------------
1/6/2003
1.031 +184 +.034
-67 Fell
quickly below LB
War expected
1/5/2009
1.033 +406 +.010
+31 Fell quickly below LB
All positive
1/4/2010
1.014 +380 -.088
-30 Fell quickly below LB
low
1/4/2011
1.016 +203 -.017
+92 DJI rose two more months.
1/3/2012
1.025 +246 -.090
+1 DJI rose ten weeks.
-------------
1/2/2014 1.020 +123
+.015 +7 Fell quickly below LB
All positive
1/4/2018
1.019 +217 -.046
+48 DJI rise another 3 weeks and then fell steeply below LB.
__________________________________________________________________________________
N = 31 18
produced declines below the lower band.
6 produced declines to the lower band.
7 produced significantly higher prices.
|
Charts 1/3/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index Graph of Pct of All Stocks above 65-dma NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/3/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-3/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-3/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 1/3/2020 STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 297.43 -2.92 289.8 128.3% Bullish BLUE .244 .17 --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 124.6 -1.25 125.19 -32.4% ------- BLUE .152 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 332.76 -.56 330.14 43.1% Bearish BLUE-.236 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 148.44 -2.09 148.28 7.4% Bearish RED .183 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.63 -.79 47.77 -23% ------- RED .005 -.067 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 121.01 -.42 120.3 17% ------- RED -.081 -.042 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 146.5 -1.7 145.75 27.5% Bearish -----.166 .037 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 231.58 -2.74 230.66 8% ------- ---- .01 .036 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 218.93 -.73 219.97 -43.1% ------- BLUE .083 -.146 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 134.34 -1.08 135.27 -21.2% Bearish BLUE-.164 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 60.1 -.74 60.08 23.3% Bullish BLUE .084 .086 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 144.28 -1.69 145.75 -53.2% ------- BLUE .132 .048 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 138.34 -2.75 139.14 -25.1% ------- BLUE-.006 .04 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 54.69 -.3 55.35 -29.9% ------- BLUE .114 -.053 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 200.08 -.71 198.17 76.2% ------- BLUE .18 -.065 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 178.45 -1.55 177.26 52.5% ------- BLUE .35 -.004 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 91.25 -.79 91.5 -4.9% ------- BLUE .127 .053 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 158.62 -2 158.96 -1.6% ------- BLUE .216 .094 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.92 -.28 101.57 59.7% ------- BLUE .331 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 38.93 -.21 39.32 -57.4% Bearish BLUE-.047 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 122.58 -.83 126.09 -105.8% ------- BLUE-.045 -.066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 137.02 -.49 136.8 26.7% ------- BLUE .188 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 289.54 -2.96 295.97 -103.8% ------- BLUE-.033 .091 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.35 .21 150.28 87.6% ------- BLUE-.058 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 189.6 -1.52 189.39 11.6% Bullish BLUE .156 .041 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 60.4 -.65 61.53 -72.6% Bearish ---- .145 -.075 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 59.08 0 59.02 15.3% Bearish BLUE-.236 -.001 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 117.89 -1.05 119.59 -68.3% Bearish RED -.18 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 70.33 -.57 69.89 14.3% Bearish RED -.006 -.051 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/3/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 286.32 -2.3 286.33 4.5% ------- BLUE .064 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 332.76 -.56 330.14 43.1% Bearish BLUE-.236 -.082 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 322.52 -2.35 322.86 -6.5% ------- BLUE .16 .01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 214.18 -1.98 213.61 9.1% ------- BLUE .2 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 373.97 -1.96 375.36 -28.2% ------- BLUE .127 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 165.13 -.65 165.86 -46.7% ------- BLUE .078 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 94.52 -1.73 94.69 -13.7% ------- BLUE .068 .138 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 27 -.53 28.71 -248.2% Bearish BLUE .067 .019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 276.19 -15.77 278.86 -103.7% ------- RED .13 .433 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 247.13 -8.1 244.33 63.2% Bullish BLUE .257 .418 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 118.36 -1.53 121.56 -174.5% Bearish BLUE .071 .055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 145.86 1.91 142.33 121.8% Bullish BLUE .143 -.029 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 13.51 .19 13.3 30% ------- RED .095 .078 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 10.02 .58 9.33 -15.6% ------- RED .152 .484 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200103
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 119
NEWLOWS 10
MAXCP 64
MINCP 11
TTTNH 24
TTTNL 17
FASTUP 53
FASTDOWN 49
CPCROSSA 221
CPCROSSD 49
BIGVOLUP 8
BIGVODN 16
ACCUMVER 16
HIGHIP21 54
HIUPPCT 37
VHIP21 118
LOWACCUM 110
REDSELL 83
AUGSELS7 38
TRAPDOOR 15
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/3/20
Bullish = 44
Bearish = 2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
COPPER 1 1 1 1 .875 .875
REGBANKS .923 .923 .961 .923 .923 1
GAMING .909 .909 .818 .863 .863 .818
INDEXES .897 .86 .87 .897 .844 .838
ETFS .894 .929 .912 .877 .929 .947
GOLD .875 .916 .854 .833 .812 .833
NASD-100 .865 .917 .886 .845 .865 .886
DOWJONES .862 .862 .827 .862 .862 .827
SEMI .859 .878 .841 .822 .85 .831
CHINA .836 .836 .818 .781 .763 .781
NIFTY .833 .814 .796 .796 .814 .814
SP-100 .833 .866 .844 .844 .855 .855
ELECTRON .83 .849 .803 .79 .81 .816
FOOD .814 .87 .851 .851 .851 .833
BONDFUND .801 .712 .613 .633 .633 .633
EDU .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8
FIDSTKS .793 .832 .826 .793 .837 .837
COMODITY .775 .825 .8 .8 .8 .775
OILGAS .77 .718 .681 .659 .637 .711
DJI-13 .769 .769 .692 .692 .692 .615
FINANCE .764 .788 .788 .776 .8 .823
SOLAR .764 .764 .705 .705 .764 .764
GREEN .761 .761 .761 .761 .809 .857
AUTO .743 .794 .743 .743 .743 .769
SP500 .735 .762 .796 .758 .777 .783
RUS-1000 .733 .753 .781 .75 .769 .773
HACKERS .7 .75 .7 .65 .65 .65
BEVERAGE .687 .687 .875 .75 .75 .812
GUNS .687 .625 .625 .687 .687 .75
COMPUTER .684 .789 .684 .631 .684 .684
SOFTWARE .683 .666 .633 .633 .666 .7
HOSPITAL .681 .681 .681 .681 .636 .636
BIOTECH .673 .702 .682 .682 .694 .7
INDMATER .662 .727 .766 .727 .74 .753
MILITARY .642 .571 .571 .607 .607 .607
INFRA .638 .694 .666 .666 .694 .722
RETAIL .627 .627 .666 .666 .725 .764
UTILITY .625 .625 .8 .725 .725 .625
TRANSP .6 .7 .7 .7 .8 .8
CHEM .58 .68 .8 .72 .74 .78
INSURANC .576 .576 .576 .576 .538 .5
REIT .537 .427 .579 .544 .551 .517
JETS .5 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9
==========================================================================================
HOMEBLDG .47 .352 .294 .294 .294 .352
COAL .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2
|
======================================================================
1/2/2020 War with Iraq? The market cannot be sure that this will not
follow President
Trump's ordering of the killing of a top Iranian General. So, a 500 point
further pullback seems possible. Actually, anything less than that will have to
be considered as a sign that the bulls are still very much in charge and that
the leading stocks are in "strong hands".
Stick with the Peerless Buys
and the very strong NYSE A/D Line.
Peerless has given no Sell signal. Stick with our longs. The upwards
momentum before the news leaked out in some quarters should not be
quickly dismissed.
I appreciate that traders may be tempted to lock in profits
and I admit that
it can be argued that since we have a two-day reversal-up Buy B19
signal, we should have something like a two-day reversal-down Sell
Signal if the DJI closes at its lows tomorrow. But two-day reversals down
nearly always follow a different Peerless Sell and we did not get one today.
Instead, our IP21 has jumped up above +.04.
Weakness at the close tomorrow after a down opening of 300 points
will be scary, but the DJI's uptrend is still intact, rates are low, the economy
is strong and more all-time highs probably lie ahead.
|
Charts 1/2/2020 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU BLDP CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 1/2/2020 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/1-2/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/1-2/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 1/2/2020
Only 24 of 30 DJI-30 stocks show rising 5-dma.
STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 300.35 6.7 289.91 277.4% Bullish BLUE .324 .173 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 125.85 1.36 125.41 44.5% ------- BLUE .195 -.019 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 333.32 7.56 329.92 4.9% Bearish BLUE-.232 -.069 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 150.53 2.85 148.22 103.2% Bearish BLUE .234 .062 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 48.42 .46 47.85 67% ------- BLUE .046 -.054 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 121.43 .92 120.6 45.3% ------- BLUE-.079 -.035 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 148.2 3.57 145.7 100.3% Bearish BLUE-.11 .062 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 234.32 4.39 231.21 95.7% ------- BLUE-.008 .044 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 219.66 1.28 220.82 -23% ------- BLUE .042 -.148 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 135.42 1.38 134.91 16.4% Bearish BLUE-.135 -.055 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 60.84 .99 59.82 119.7% ------- BLUE .067 .091 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 145.97 .1 145.83 1.4% ------- BLUE .153 .064 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 141.09 1.69 139.04 126.5% ------- BLUE .022 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 54.99 -.36 55.02 25.4% ------- RED .15 -.062 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 200.79 3.18 197.06 104.4% ------- BLUE .13 -.119 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 180 3.58 176.59 94% ------- BLUE .297 .009 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 92.04 1.09 91.34 32.9% ------- BLUE .167 .013 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 160.62 2.92 158.67 102.5% ------- BLUE .285 .084 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 102.2 .89 100.71 102.1% ------- BLUE .334 -.014 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 39.14 -.04 39.38 -19.1% Bearish RED -.034 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 123.41 -1.49 125.22 -72.3% ------- RED .008 -.04 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 137.51 .56 136.29 61.6% ------- ---- .192 -.107 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 292.5 -1.48 295.65 -34.6% ------- RED -.018 .123 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 153.14 3.38 150.71 119% ------- BLUE-.055 .031 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 191.12 3.22 189.16 94.2% ------- BLUE .175 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 61.05 -.35 61.29 -18.7% Bearish RED .186 -.071 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 59.08 .12 58.9 62% Bearish RED -.217 .006 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 118.94 .1 119.52 -23.9% Bearish BLUE-.116 -.083 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 70.9 1.12 70.13 63% ------- BLUE .035 -.045 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 1/2/20 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIA 288.62 3.52 286.06 63.2% ------- BLUE .123 -----
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BA 333.32 7.56 329.92 4.9% Bearish BLUE -.232 -.069
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY 324.87 3.01 322.94 56.5% ------- BLUE .208 .007
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
QQQ 216.16 3.55 213.79 99.6% ------- BLUE .28 .042
high
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MDY 375.93 .55 376.09 8.9% ------- RED .144 -.016
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IWM 165.78 .11 166.68 -27.1% Bearish RED .07 0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAS 96.25 1.61 94.78 151.2% ------- BLUE .123 .122
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RETL 27.53 -.77 28.4 -49.5% Bearish RED .056 .075
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOXL 291.96 17.14 282 198.3% ------- BLUE .238 .475 Bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TECL 255.23 13.48 244.03 335.8% ------- BLUE .343 .397 Bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IBB 119.89 -.62 122.58 -148.4% Bearish RED .111 .081
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GLD 143.95 1.05 142.38 94.2% Bullish BLUE .109 -.046
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OIH 11.91 -.37 12.55 -429.3% Bearish RED -.058 -.19
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GASL 9.44 -.36 10.05 -232.4% ------- RED .136 .454
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20200102
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 440
NEWLOWS 18
MAXCP 43
MINCP 26
TTTNH 19
TTTNL 80
FASTUP 52
FASTDOWN 43
CPCROSSA 138
CPCROSSD 140
BIGVOLUP 10
BIGVODN 3
ACCUMVER 21
HIGHIP21 63
HIUPPCT 35
VHIP21 119
LOWACCUM 115
REDSELL 86
AUGSELS7 49
TRAPDOOR 15
|
RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
1/2/20
Bullish = 43
Bearish = 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
COPPER 1 1 1 .875 .875 .875
ETFS .931 .913 .879 .931 .948 .913
REGBANKS .923 .961 .923 .923 1 1
NASD-100 .917 .896 .855 .865 .886 .886
GAMING .909 .818 .863 .863 .818 .818
GOLD .901 .843 .823 .803 .823 .803
SEMI .886 .849 .83 .858 .83 .839
FOOD .87 .851 .851 .851 .833 .796
SP-100 .866 .844 .844 .855 .855 .844
DOWJONES .862 .827 .862 .862 .827 .827
INDEXES .86 .87 .897 .844 .838 .822
ELECTRON .849 .803 .79 .81 .81 .79
CHINA .836 .818 .781 .763 .781 .763
FIDSTKS .832 .826 .793 .837 .837 .826
COMODITY .829 .804 .804 .804 .78 .731
NIFTY .814 .796 .796 .814 .814 .814
AUTO .794 .743 .743 .743 .769 .769
FINANCE .79 .79 .779 .802 .825 .825
COMPUTER .789 .684 .631 .684 .684 .684
DJI-13 .769 .692 .692 .692 .615 .615
SP500 .762 .798 .758 .777 .777 .779
RUS-1000 .753 .783 .75 .769 .769 .765
HACKERS .75 .75 .65 .65 .65 .65
INDMATER .723 .763 .723 .736 .75 .789
GREEN .72 .72 .72 .76 .8 .8
OILGAS .72 .683 .661 .639 .691 .698
BIOTECH .702 .681 .681 .696 .699 .713
JETS .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .9
TRANSP .7 .7 .7 .8 .8 .7
INFRA .694 .666 .666 .694 .722 .694
BEVERAGE .687 .875 .75 .75 .75 .75
HOSPITAL .681 .681 .681 .636 .636 .636
CHEM .673 .795 .714 .734 .775 .795
BONDFUND .669 .58 .598 .607 .598 .598
SOFTWARE .666 .65 .633 .666 .7 .716
EDU .647 .647 .588 .647 .705 .647
RETAIL .627 .666 .666 .725 .764 .745
GUNS .625 .625 .687 .687 .75 .75
UTILITY .625 .8 .725 .725 .625 .65
SOLAR .615 .576 .576 .615 .615 .615
MILITARY .571 .571 .607 .607 .607 .607
INSURANC .567 .567 .567 .54 .513 .513
============================================================================================
REIT .427 .579 .544 .551 .517 .496
HOMEBLDG .387 .354 .354 .387 .387 .322
COAL .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2
|
====================================================================
12/31/2019 Peerless remains on Buys.
Until we see get a Peerless Sell, I have
suggested that we continue to hold QQQ, DIA and the leading MAXCPS.
Watch the daily breadth statistics. A rising NYSE A/D Line shows 1) that
the FED is not about to change its mind and start to tighten credit, 2) that the
economic boom is continuing and 3) that the trend is up for most NYSE
stocks. A New Year surge in technology stocks and IWM should be taken as
a very good sign, too, for the new year, showing the speculative "animal
spirits" are
coming to life among all classes of investors. The most bullish thing the DJI
could now do would be breakout above its wedge pattern's resistance line
on very high volume. It 21-dma AROC is only slightly positive. That is a
problem.
Question: What could change our Optimistic market
outlook?
Answer: a Sell S12, which would likely result from the DJI
closing 2.5%
over its 21-dma with our IP21 negative. In addition, a very weak Jobs Report
number on Friday (below 60,000) or another very big drop in the Dollar would
hurt our positive outlook.
As discussed last time, 2019 brought some very big gains in leading stocks like
AAPL and leveraged technology ETFS ( 290% in SOXL, 241% in TECL and
154% in TQQQ. Taking profits early this new year will be very tempting,
especially if their uptrendlines are broken. We know from history, notably
1915-1916, 1927-1928, 1959-1960 and 1983-1984 that broken rising
wedge patterns in early January can bring significant declines. We also
saw in our study of January S12s that a weak IP21 (Tiger's Accumuation
Index in negative territory as DJI makes a new high) brought significant
declines from the Presidential Election Year January tops in 1960, 1984
and 2000 and in non-Presidential Election year January tops, like 1966,
1973, 1981, 1990 and 2009. All these cases, except those before 1929
when we could not get Peerless Sells because the daily DJI highs' and lows'
data was not kept, did bring a Peerless Sell S12.
But what if the rising wedge pattern prevents the DJI from reaching the
2.5% upper band and so there is no Sell S12 even though the DJI closes
more than 2% over the 21-dma with the IP21 negative? We probably
should wait to see what the statistics are in that case.
But a strong opening a very weak close with negative breadth and rising
volume would certainly have to be taken as a traders' Sell signal. It would
remind us of the market's top before a sharp 10% correction in January 2018.
In the 1/30/2018 chart below, the DJI actually showed a daily high 2% above
the 21-dma with both the P-I and V-I both negative. Given the current
rising wedge pattern in the DJI and Boeing's vulnerability if it falls another 5 points
and breaks its key support, I would be inclined to sell DIA if we see another
such reversal before an upside breakout. QQQ may still hold up, even if we
get a Sell S12, so we will plan to hold that for now.
A sharp reversal down started the January 2018 Sell-off
|
Charts 12/31/2019 2020 PEERLESS DJI, Signals, Indicators Daily DJI Volume 10-DayUp/Down Vol Stoch-20 A/D Line for All Stocks Inverted Traders Index NASDAQ S&P OEX NYSE COMPQX DJI-15 DJI-20 DJI-30 DIA SPY QQQ MDY IWM TNA Short-Term Rates USO-CrudeOil DBO FAS GLD BBH IBB JETS JNUG KOL NUGT OIH OIL RSX RETL SDS AGQ SLV SOXL TECL TLT TMF TNA UGA (gasoline) and China: YINN CHAU Commodities: CANE CORN DBC JJC, NIB, CHOC CORN, CUT (paper) MOO, SOYB WEAT UUP (Dollar) LIT (Lithium) AAPL ADBE ALXN AMAT AMGN AMD AMZN AXP BA BABA BAC BIDU CAT CVX DE FB GOOG GS HD IBM INTU JPM M (Macy's) MSFT NFLX NKE NVDA PG QCOM TSLA TXN XOM V WMT CMG , LRCX, SQ TOWN 12/31/19 (Click on Underlined link.) New highs and Bullish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MAX/12-31/BULLISH.htm Bearish MAXCPs - http://tigersoft.com/2020MIN/12-31/BEARISH.htm |
Table 1 QUICKSILVER on DJI-30 STOCKS 12/31/2019 Only 10 of 30 DJI-30 stocks show rising 5-dma. STOCKS CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AAPL 292.99 1.47 284.27 156.1% Bullish BLUE .238 .176 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- AXP 124.3 0 124.74 -7.6% Bearish BLUE .063 .001 --------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 324.36 -2.04 333 -199% Bearish RED -.336 -.12 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- CAT 147.62 .1 147.48 -29.7% Bearish BLUE .125 .066 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CSCO 47.9 .31 47.78 -20.9% Bearish BLUE-.046 -.038 --------------------------------------------------------------------- CVX 120.2 .35 120.34 -5.4% ------- BLUE-.163 -.016 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DIS 144.26 .49 145.29 -14.5% Bearish BLUE-.198 .039 --------------------------------------------------------------------- GS 229.35 -.45 229.91 5.6% Bearish RED -.142 .047 --------------------------------------------------------------------- HD 218.14 .83 220.67 -24.4% Bearish BLUE-.034 -.147 --------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM 133.65 .84 134.98 -70.5% Bearish BLUE-.192 -.067 Bearish --------------------------------------------------------------------- INTC 59.69 .07 59.41 38.6% Bearish BLUE-.013 .099 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JNJ 145.62 .32 145.93 -28.1% ------- BLUE .104 .077 --------------------------------------------------------------------- JPM 138.99 .36 137.58 64.7% ------- BLUE-.074 .09 --------------------------------------------------------------------- KO 55.26 -.01 54.71 31.8% ------- BLUE .21 -.055 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MCD 197.48 .57 196.67 32.5% ------- BLUE .091 -.116 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MMM 176.25 .42 176.68 -62.7% ------- BLUE .197 .017 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MRK 90.76 -.27 91.44 -53.6% Bearish ---- .093 .008 --------------------------------------------------------------------- MSFT 157.26 -.33 157.38 -4.7% ------- BLUE .191 .081 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------- NKE 101.21 .41 100.14 58.1% ------- BLUE .288 -.01 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PFE 39.01 .1 39.29 -39.5% Bearish BLUE-.094 .007 --------------------------------------------------------------------- PG 124.57 .1 125.22 -13.2% ------- BLUE .058 -.003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- TRV 136.78 .29 135.83 20.2% ------- BLUE .084 -.096 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UNH 293.24 -.61 294.54 -31.4% Bearish RED -.054 .132 --------------------------------------------------------------------- UTX 149.56 -.32 149.57 -8.7% Bearish RED -.179 .03 --------------------------------------------------------------------- V 187.41 -.42 187.57 8.8% ------- BLUE .096 .003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- VZ 61.22 .01 61.28 -14.7% Bearish ---- .175 -.061 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WBA 58.91 0 58.35 28.9% Bearish BLUE-.169 .002 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WMT 118.57 -.83 119.51 -19.3% Bearish RED -.033 -.068 --------------------------------------------------------------------- DOW 69.55 .07 70.02 -52.9% Bearish BLUE-.048 -.035 |
Table 2 QUICKSILVER on ETFS - 12/31/19 ETF CLOSE CHANGE PIVOT-PT 5-dma AROC CL-PWR CANDLE IP21 ITRS --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 284.6 .07 285.01 -12.8% Bearish BLUE-.022 ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BA 324.36 -2.04 333 -199% Bearish RED -.336 -.12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 321.43 .35 321.23 3.3% ------- BLUE .115 .015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QQQ 212.34 .13 211.92 12.5% ------- BLUE .181 .044 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDY 376.55 1.54 375.26 17.4% ------- BLUE .105 .004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IWM 166.1 .66 166.68 -6% Bearish BLUE .028 .025 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAS 94.12 .43 93.4 59.6% Bearish BLUE-.038 .145 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETL 28.38 .3 27.81 169.1% Bearish BLUE .027 .166 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOXL 274.42 1.43 280.94 -79.8% ------- BLUE .129 .477 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TECL 240.92 .94 238.99 44.6% ------- BLUE .227 .374 Bullish --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IBB 120.31 .13 123.5 -106.8% Bearish BLUE .098 .113 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLD 143.02 .39 141.27 108.3% Bullish RED .12 -.045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIH 11.91 -.37 12.55 -429.3% Bearish RED -.058 -.177 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GASL 9.82 .48 9.89 -36.1% ------- BLUE .094 .562 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Table 3 Count of Stocks in Key Directories
20191231
-------------------------------
NEWHIGHS 167 Bullish Ratio
NEWLOWS 4
MAXCP 30
MINCP 7
TTTNH 12
TTTNL 12
FASTUP 69
FASTDOWN 49
CPCROSSA 140
CPCROSSD 24
BIGVOLUP 3
BIGVODN 10
ACCUMVER 15
HIGHIP21 41
HIUPPCT 31
VHIP21 118
LOWACCUM 97
REDSELL 88
AUGSELS7 48
TRAPDOOR 15
|
Table 4 RANKING OF KEY DIRECTORIES BASED PCT.OF STOCKS ABOVE 65-DMA
12/31/19
Bullish = 44
Beairsh = 2
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Directory Current day-1 day-2 day-3 day-4 day-5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGBANKS 1 1 1 1 1 1
COPPER 1 1 .875 .875 .875 .875
REGBANKS .923 .923 .923 1 1 1
ETFS .913 .879 .931 .948 .913 .931
NASD-100 .896 .865 .876 .886 .876 .876
INDEXES .887 .897 .844 .838 .822 .822
BEVERAGE .875 .75 .75 .75 .75 .687
GAMING .863 .863 .863 .818 .818 .818
SEMI .858 .83 .858 .83 .839 .82
FOOD .851 .851 .851 .833 .796 .74
SP-100 .844 .844 .855 .855 .833 .833
GOLD .843 .823 .803 .823 .803 .705
DOWJONES .833 .866 .866 .833 .833 .8
FIDSTKS .821 .793 .837 .837 .821 .826
CHINA .818 .781 .763 .781 .763 .781
ELECTRON .815 .796 .815 .815 .796 .769
NIFTY .807 .807 .824 .824 .824 .824
COMODITY .804 .804 .804 .78 .731 .707
JETS .8 .8 .9 .9 .9 .9
SP500 .8 .76 .777 .777 .779 .771
FINANCE .79 .779 .802 .825 .825 .813
RUS-1000 .783 .751 .769 .769 .765 .761
CHEM .775 .714 .734 .775 .775 .795
UTILITY .775 .725 .725 .625 .65 .675
AUTO .769 .743 .743 .769 .769 .769
HACKERS .75 .7 .65 .65 .65 .65
INDMATER .75 .723 .736 .75 .776 .789
COMPUTER .736 .631 .684 .684 .684 .684
GREEN .72 .72 .76 .8 .8 .76
TRANSP .7 .7 .8 .8 .7 .75
INFRA .694 .666 .694 .722 .694 .694
DJI-13 .692 .692 .692 .615 .615 .615
RETAIL .686 .666 .725 .764 .745 .725
OILGAS .683 .661 .639 .691 .683 .683
BIOTECH .682 .676 .691 .697 .717 .705
HOSPITAL .681 .681 .636 .636 .636 .681
EDU .666 .611 .666 .722 .666 .666
SOFTWARE .666 .65 .666 .7 .716 .716
GUNS .625 .687 .687 .75 .75 .687
SOLAR .576 .576 .615 .615 .615 .615
MILITARY .571 .607 .607 .607 .607 .607
REIT .565 .544 .551 .517 .496 .475
BONDFUND .562 .598 .607 .598 .598 .526
INSURANC .54 .567 .54 .513 .513 .513
===========================================================================================
HOMEBLDG .354 .354 .387 .387 .354 .322
COAL .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2
|
========================================================================
12/30/2019
Peerless remains on Buys based
on seasonality and the seemingly
ever-rising NYSE A/D Line. Since 1967, the DJI has risen 70% of the
time over the next ten trading days and gained 0.8%. But this is no
ordinary third Presidential Election year rally. The 10-year Bond still
yields less than 2% and Unemployment is near record lows when we
are at peace. Hold your longs. At some point, there may be a buying
panic.
It's true that the DJI's IP21 is not very positive when we use its hypothetical
highs and lows in its calculation. It stands at only .014. With the DJI 1.8%
over the 21-day ma, there is a chance we will get a Sell S12 next week. This
would be based on the DJI closing above 29000 with the IP21 negative.
But the DJI's other variables are all positive, so there may be not even
be a Sell S12 if the DJI's IP21 drops below zero. We must wait and
see what the technical readings are apt to be next week.
Keep the Table below handy is my
suggestion.
Peerless
Seasonality: Performance of DJI by Months:
From the First if the Month to 21-trading days later:
Avg. DJI Pct Gain and Pct. of Time DJI rises:
1965-2019
(c) 2019 - www.tigersoft.com
Keep the Table below handy is my suggestion.
| All: '65,'66,'67... 2021 |
PE + 1 Yr. after Pres. Election Yr. ('65,'69,'73...) |
PE + 2 Mid-Term Election Yr. ('66,'70,'74) |
PE +3 Yr. before Pres. Election Yr. ('67,'71,'75) |
PE +4 Pres. Election Yr. ('68,'72,'76) |
|
| January | .01 (1.0%) 63% |
+.007 (+0.7%) 57.1% |
-.014 (-1.4%) 50.0% |
+.038 (3.8%) 84.6% |
+.012 (+1.2%) 61.5% |
| February | .006 (0.6%) 59.3% |
-.005 (-0.5%) 50.0% |
+.011 (+1.1%) 64.3% |
+.019 (+1.9%) 61.5% |
-.001 (-0.1%) 61.5% |
| March | .01 (1.0%) 66.7% |
+.004 (+0.4%) 50.0% |
+.007 (+0.7%) 57.1% |
+.025 (+2.5%) 92.3% |
+.006 (+0.6%) 67.2% |
| April | +.021 (+2.1%) 72.2% |
+.022 (+2.2%) 71.4% |
+.010 (+1.0%) 64.3% |
+.042 (3.8%) 92.3% |
.009 (0.9%) 61.5% |
| May | -.001 (-0.1%) 44.4% |
+.014 (+1.4%) 64.3% |
-.010 (-1.0%) 35.7% |
0 38.5% |
-.010 (-1.0%) 38.5% |
| June | -.005 (-0.5%) 44.4% |
-.014 (-1.4%) 28.6% |
-.017 (-1.7%) 21.4% |
+.009 (+0.9%) 61.5% |
+.004 (+0.4%) 69.2% |
| July | .005 (0.5%) 50.9% |
+.020 (+2.0%) 71.4% |
.004 (0.4%) 38.5% |
+.00 (+0.0%) 46.2% |
-.005 (-0.5%) 46.2% |
| August | -.004 (-0.4%) 54.7% |
-.016 (-1.6%) 35.7% |
-.008 (-0.8%) 61.5% |
-.002 (-0.2%) 53.8% |
+.011 (+1.1%) 69.2% |
| September | -.005 (-0.5%) 45.3% |
+.001 (+0.1%) 57.1% |
-.021 (-2.1%) 30.8% |
-.004 (-0.4%) 53.8% |
.003 (0.3%) 38.5% |
| October | .006 (0.6%) 60.4% |
.008 (0.8%) 71.4% |
+.042 (4.2%) 76.9% |
-.008 (-0.8%) 46.2% |
-.013 (-1.3%) 46.2% |
| November | .008 (0.8%) 64.2% |
.012 (1.2%) 78.6% |
.007 (0.7%) 69.2% |
.005 (0.5%) 53.8% |
.008 (0.8%) 53.8% |
| December | .019 (1.9%) 71.7% |
.018 (1.8%) 57.1% |
.014 (1.4%) 76.9% |
+.024 (+2.4%) 69.2% |
+.021 (+2.1%) 61.5% |
Gains in Years in the Four-Year
Cycle
Third Years
Pres.Election Year Year After
Second Year
------------
------------------- -----------
--------------
1915 81.7%
1916 -4.2%
1917 -21.7% 1918
10.5%
1919 30.5%
1920 -32.9%
1921 12.7% 1922
21.7%
1923 -3.3%
1924 26.2%
1925 30.0% 1926
0.3%
1927 28.8%
1928 48.2%
1929 -17.2% 1930 -33.8%
1931 -52.7%
1932 -23.1%
1933 +66.8% 1934
4.1%
1935 38.6%
1936 24.8%
1937 -32.8% 1938 28.0%
1939 -3.0%
1940 -12.7%
1941 -15.3% 1942
7.6%
1943 13.8%
1944 12.1%
1945 26.7% 1946
-8.1%
1947 2.2%
1948 -2.1%
1949 13.1% 1950
17.4%
1951 14.4%
1952 8.4%
1953 -3.8% 1954
44.0%
1955 20.8%
1956 2.3%
1957 -12.8% 1958 34.0%
1959 16.4%
1960 -9.3%
1961 18.7% 1962 -10.8%
1963 17.0%
1964 14.6%
1965 10.9% 1966 -18.9%
1967 15.2%
1968 4.3%
1969 -15.2% 1970 4.8%
1971 6.1%
1972 14.6%
1973 -16.6% 1974 -27.6%
1975 38.3%
1976 17.9%
1977 -17.3% 1978 -3.1%
1979 4.2%
1980 14.9%
1981 -9.2% 1982
19.6%
1983 20.3%
1984 -3.7%
1985 27.7% 1986
22.6%
1987 2.3%
1988 11.8%
1989 27.0% 1990
-4.3%
1991 20.3%
1992 4.2%
1993 13.7% 1994
2.1%
1995 33.5%
1996 26.0%
1997 22.6% 1998
16.1%
1999 25.2%
2000 -6.2%
2001 -7.1% 2002
-16.8%
2003 25.3%
2004 3.1%
2005 -0.6% 2006
16.3%
2007 6.4%
2008 -33.8%
2009 18.8% 2010 11.0%
2011 5.5%
2012 7.3%
2013 26.5% 2014
7.5%
2015 -2.2%
2016 13.4%
2017 5.2% 2018
-5.6%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Avg. +15.6%
+5.6%
+5.7% +5.4%
22 up
4 down 17 up 9 down 14 up 12 down
17 up 9 down
(From forthcoming Peerless Stock
Market Timing: 1915-2019