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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/20/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoft.com/HH/Index.html 

                        8/20/2015
        New Highs: NASD  4          NYSE  4
        New Lows:  NASD  177        NYSE 281
                                                 
            8/20/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks                     
     22 ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-20/MAXCP.htm
                                       Still being worked on

                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks
      289  -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-20/MINCP.htm
                       Still being worked on 
         
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     8/20/2015   It's Friday, so we could get a rally up from 17000
                        simply based on short-covering before a weekend.
                        But down-day volume has been quite heavy today
                        and yesterday.  Coupled with the weak OBV Lines
                        for the SP-500 and OEX, I doubt if any rally will
                        get past 17500.  

                        DJI-17000 is a round-number support level.  And it might hold up. 
                        More testing is usually needed after such a sharp decline.
                        If there is a reversal, watch the breadth.  It will need to be very good,
                        better than 3.5 advances to declines on NYSE to give a
                        Buy B19.

                    .   I worry that the next rally will not be strong enough to produce a
                        Peerless Sell.  The DJI has had a very hard time getting above
                        the 2% upper band.   I can't  forget how the markets sold off in
                        Sept-October 1978, 1979 and 1987 when the Fed disappointed investors.
                        (That could certainly happen again.  I won't repeat here my concerns
                        that the FED is not properly concerned about world-wide Deflation's
                        dangers to the US or how weak the World's markets look now.)

                        Sadly, even assuming, the bank stocks are holding up now
                        because, insiders in them are privy to a new-found Fed
                        "dovishness", it is not clear the FED can do much to
                        fight off World-Wide Deflation.

                      

                                                    No Buy B17

                        For lots of reasons, I think the Peerless Buy B17 rules
                        should be changed so that the current B17 is voided and
                        does not appear.                          
 

            Buy B17s After a 2% Decline
         Are not Safe if 65-dma is falling
         except after a bear market decline.

   At today's close, Peerless gave a new Buy B17.
   I would not trust it.  The reasons are pretty basic.

   They demonstrate the need to look at the key values
   and compare them with past cases.  The DJI's current 
   key values differ considerably from their range in 
   the few cases where a Buy B17 did take place on the 
   same day the DJI fell 2% or more.

   In looking at the past for parallels, we want to  
   to distinguish where in the markets bear-market ...
   bull-market... bear market cycle a Peerless signal occurs.
   Peerless Buys late in a long bull market at different
   from those occurring at a bear market bottom.

   The number of prior cases is also important. To be 
   trustworthy a Peerless Buy signal should 
   have a good number of past cases with similar key
   internals in comparable market environments. 

   On all three grounds our Buy B17 is problematic.
 
   The easiest way to do this is to add B17 rules which
   disallow the signal after a long bull market when the
   the day's decline is over 2% and when the DJI is below
   a falling 65-dma. Note that in our case, the 65-dma has not 
   only been penetrated, its rate of decline is rapidly
   increasing.  In the past, none of the Buy B17s with declines 
   of more than 2% from the previous day's close occurred 
   in an on-going bull market when the DJI was below a
   falling 65-day ma.

   Note also there have only been 6 prior cases of B17s with a daily
   decline of 2% or more since 1928. Only  3 cases have been
   seen since 1939. When a new Buy (or Sell) occurs with so few cases,
   we want to be very careful and we want to use the new case to
   better define the acceptable parameters of the signal.
   See all their cases below.

                    B17s on Cases Where
                   DJI Fell More than 2%
                   on Day of Buy Signal.

   Date        Pct       65-dma status     LA/MA   P-I  IP21   V-I   OBV-Pvt   
               Decline  
   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   8/20/2015   2%      Below Falling       .970    -238 -.05    -149  -.462 
   Bull market is 5 1/2 years old. 
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   12/10/1928         Above Rising 65 dma   .94     -43  +.01    +9   +.139   
   Many other Buy signals on this date.
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   1/26/1938          Below Falling.        .961     -2  +.044   -36  +.101
   This was a B17 during a bear market decline
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   8/8/1938           Above Rising          .963    -36  -.015   -83  +.025
   Bull market was less than 6 months' old. 
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   3/25/1988          Above Rising          .963    -32  +.071   -3   +.002
   Building a bottom after a Bear Market...Also Buy B9/B5
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   11/11/1988         Just below Rising     .963    -133 +.075   -5   -.053
   Building a bottom after a Bear Market...Also Buy B2
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   1/22/2010          Just below rising      .964   145  +.033  -119  +.113
   Bull Market - no other Buy signal.  Bull market was less than a year old. 
   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       
               

                                           Earlier Comments Here Still Apply.

                        "The signs of Deflation significantly worsened today as Crude Oil and
                        the Chinese YINN broke (further) below key support.  Somehow, the Fed and
                        Janet Yellen have been maintaining the declines in Oil and Commodities
                        are "transitory".  Will the action today change their opinions or on Open
                        Market Committee votes?  It fact, it may be too late for them to make
                        much of a difference.



                        "The Fed could come out in light of the Chinese and World Market's drop
                        top to new lows along with Oil and Commodities and say that they are rethinking
|                       their plan to raise rates in September.  So far, they have not.  This is is downright
                        scary.   I suspect Professionals may soon have no choice but to start using
                        leveraged short ETFs en masse on the major market indexes.  No one knows
                        how fast this could cause the DJI to decline.  
    
                        "There is still some hope that the FED will change their collective
                        minds.  The Hourly OBV-DISI Line is showing some strength. 
                        But this comes after three months of severe bearish divergences
                        by it from the DJI.   Another minor rally to the DJI's falling 21-day (147-hour) ma.
                        is certainly a possibility.  But the up-day Volume in the broader SP-500
|                       remains too low to be expected to eat up much of its overhead resistance.
                        With the World's markets breaking down, look for more and more
                        lower openings.  At some point, Professionals may no longer try to
                        support the market and instead seek to take advantage of how
                        steep the downtrend in a Deflationary spiral could become using
                        all the wonderful new derivatives and leveraged ETFs they have
                        created for this occasion."

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%



         QuickSilver works. We are still holding NUGT long.
         Watch for 5-day ma turns along with big (blue) up-day
         volume.  We need to write a program to flag these!

 
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