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                  9/4/2015   100+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                   9/4/2015
        New Highs: NASD   5        NYSE   7
        New Lows:  NASD  30       NYSE  82
                                                 
          9/4/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.               
       83   ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9/4/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         147     -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-4/MINCP.html
                      
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9/4/2015          The DJI is trying to recover this morning.   The futures are up 250.
                             These wild swings are signs of bearish illiquidity.  I fear the openings
                             are rigged to give the appearance of more strength than there is.
                             The DJI may be bouncing back up to 16600 again, but it may
                             not get past that level.

                             While 77% of the 10%-13.5% DJI declines from bull market peaks
                             since 1928 do recover and climb back up to their old highs, all 100%
                             the nine DJI's steep sell-offs whose first rallies failed to get above their
                             lower 3.5% band fell much lower. 

                              I  think we have to be skeptical.  It's very hard to find attractive
                              Bullish MAXCP stocks.  The operative Peerless signal is a Sell S14. 
                              The Hourly DJI even shows a bearish continuation head and shoulders. 
                              We see no signs of a reversal in the deflationary downtrends of Crude Oil,
                              Chinese Stocks, Emerging Markets'  stocks or Commodities. 

                               It's true that US stocks are seen as a safer haven by investors all over
                               the world.  They are also attracted here by the strong US Dollar.
                               But it is asking a lot for US blue chips to remain in uptrends.
                               Earnings Growth will be very difficult now that the overseas markets
                               are drying up exactly at the same time the much of  the American middle class
                               is very deeply indebted and in downsizing mode.  But perhaps, the Fed will offer|
                               us a bullish surprise, a new QE programs.

                                   SPY's Opening and Closing Power are falling.
                                   It will need to close up 5.08 to have its 5-day
                                   ma turn up.  Note the triangle pattern its prices
                                   are in.



                              Short-term, both the Opening and Closing Power are falling for
                              most of the key general market ETFs, IWM, DIA, QQQ, SPY, TECL, TNA,
                              TECL and FAS.  Each of these also show falling 5-day ma.
                              As you can see below, they will each need to rally very substantially
                              tomorrow to surpass their 5-day ma pivot-points.
                                      
                                                5-dma      Close      Pivot-    Opening/Closing
                                                AROC                    Point      Power Direction
                              --------------------------------------------------------------
                              IWM         -180.6%   112.8     115.2     Both Down
                              DIA           -163.6%   160.97   165.18   Both Down
                              QQQ         -167.0%   102.16   104.31   Both Down
                              SPY           -170.8%   192.57   197.67   Both Down
                              TNA           -379.8%     65.22    66.59   Both Down
                              TECL         -506.2%     28.36     30.65   Both Down
                              FAS           -639.6%      25.01   27.66   Both Down
 

                             History shows it is quite bearish the way the DJI and key ETFs broke down
                             so sharply to a point nearly 14% below its high and then could only
                             recover 50% of what they lost before stalling out on their rebounds
                             to their lower 3.5% band.   While 77% of the 10%-13.5% DJI declines
                             from bull market peaks since 1928 do recover and climb back up to their old highs,
                             at least, all 100% of the nine DJI's steep sell-offs whose first rallies failed
                             to get above their lower 3.5% band go much lower. Many of these failed
|                            rallies at the lower 3.5% band were followed by substantial declines.

                             It was this strong tendency for first quick bounce to fail and
                             produce a subsequent decline, or at least, bring a re-test their of lows
                             after the computer driven flash Crashes of 1987, 2010 and 2011 that caused
                             me to look into the need for something like what I now call a Sell S14.
                       
                                      First Recovery Rallies That Fail at The Lower 3.5% Band
                                      ----------------------------------------------------------
       
                                          10/23/1929  305.9 ----> 198.7 low
                                          9/17/1937    162.2 ----> 114.2 low
                                          7/6/1950      208.6 ----> 197.5 low
                                          6/1/1962      611.1 ----> 536.9 low
                                          11/3/1978    823.11 ---> 785.6 low                                        
                                          10/11/1979  844.62 --->796.67 low
                                           3/11/1980   826.44 ---> 759.98 low
                                           11/6/1987   1959.05 ---> 1766.74 low
                                           8/15/1990   2746.57 ---> 2365.10 low                                           
                             

                                                                      New Sell S14

                            Our Sell S14 of 8/28/2015 did follow very closely upon three Buy signals,
                            the Buy B16 on 8/25 at 15661.44 and the Buy B14 and B17 on 8/27/2015.
                            It does seem that these Buy signals will take a little time to use up their bullishness.
                            But I also reported that B16s are very weak in August and in the third
                            year of the 4-year Presidential cycle.  With all the uncertainties of a possible
                            rate hike and the continuing weakness on Oil, China, Emerging markets
                            and Commodities, there is a lot to worry about for a few weeks, at least.
                            That is the basis of the recommendation here to consider the Sell S14
                            a quick profit-taking signal.

                            This long weekend's for stocks to buy or sell short came up with very little
                            to buy and many more to sell short.  Look at the Bullish MAXCPs and
                            Bearish MINCPs tonight and see if you agree.  Start taking out some
                            new short sales is my suggestion.
                             

                       Short-term traders should now also be watching the Hourly DJI's uptrend.  Note the
                       potential head and shoulders that may be developing there. Support is now
                       reckoned to be at 16000 and resistance is evident now at 16650.

                      .

 

                         
 
 

                             =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     We Are in Trouble.

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
 
                                                          The FED Is The Key Now.
|
                       There is just too much uncertainty that the Fed will start raising rates for the market
                       to move much higher and this is complicated by the next Jobs' Report coming
                       out of Friday.   What the FED has artificially created in the way of a long bull market
                       built on free money to big banks, it could quickly take away,  if the recent 13.5% DJI
                       decline is any indication. There are those who tell us the short term bonds show only
                       a 22% chance that September will bring a rate hike.
                       (See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/jobs-forecast-is-another-reason-for-the-fed-not-to-raise-rates.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article )

                       I am not so sure the odds are not closer to 50%. I believe the meeting will be
                       quite contentious. The outspoken "hawks" and the "doves" are about equal in number.
                       Janet Yellen, the supposedly dovish Chairwoman, has been mysteriously quiet recently
                       and out of sight. She did not go to their annual Wyoming meeting to talk with the other
                       Fed Governors.   Has there been a rebellion against her?  Is she becoming more hawkish
                       so that she can remain in control.  She apparently sees herself as the
                       impartial chairwoman who states the "consensus" of views at the end of the
                       FOMC meeting.  She is cautious.  And a cautious person would probably
                       wait until the evidence is stronger and the opinions more conclusively in favor
                       of a rate hike.
                      
                       Still, only the New York FED Governor, Dudley, has spoken out recently
                       to advocate caution in the face of the extreme bear market in developing countries,
                       the Chinese market's meltdown, falling oil prices and falling commodity prices.
                       Several other Fed Governors are on record recently as favoring a rate hike soon,
                       despite the signs of world-wide Deflation and the economic downturns overseas. 

                       Once upon a time, I was interviewed by the CIA to be a Kremlinologist, one who
                       studied the divergent interests and pronouncements of the dozen or so members
                       of the Soviet Union's Presidium.  I think I still have an interest in the politics of
                       secretive power-elites.  So, today I made a list of all the FED members of the
                       Open Market Committee, those who will decide on September 17th, whether
                       to raise short-term rates and tried to find on the internet what exactly they had last
                       said on the subject.  Let me show you what I found.  The conclusion I draw from
                       this exercise is that there may well now be a majority for a rate hike, even though
                       a majority of the Open Market Committee are considered more dovish than hawkish.

                       I plan to keep this list of t he key Fed policy-makers handy.  I will try  to refer to it
                       each time one of these FED members makes a public statement.  We will want to
                       see how they may be shifting their position and their intra-committee alliances.
                     
                                               Members of Fed's Open Market Committee:
                                 (They decide "by consensus" whether to raise short-term rates.)

                        5 Doves: Dudley, Evans,  Rosengren, Brainard, Tarullo

                        3 Doves shifting in favor of a rate hike: Yellen, Williams, Lockhart

                        6 Hawks: Fischer, Lacker, Powell, Bullard, Mester, George

                      (  What is a hawk?  What is a dove?    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_hawk_and_dove )
                             In 2013, Business Week made the same break-down that I am attempting here.
                                    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-2013-fomc-member-profiles-2013-1?op=1
                             Deutche Bank offered an assessment of the two camps within the Fed at the end of 2015.
                                    http://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-policy/fed-its-fomc-composition/

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                 Notes from last night.
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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