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                  9/28/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                  9/28/2015
        New Highs: NASD  8     NYSE  273
        New Lows:  NASD  0   NYSE  409
                                                 
          9/28/2015 
                          Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5               
       27 -11  ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-28-2015/MAXCP.html

                                            Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         627 +402  -->  http://www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-28-2015/Bearish.html
                          Professionals used today's rally to short more stocks.
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          9/28/2015             The DJI declined 1.52% (313) today and has fallen back to the 16000
                                       support shown on the Hourly chart.  This also represents a test of the lower
                                       2.3% band below the 21-day ma.  It is still 335 points above it lowest
                                       closing level in the August sell-off.  Many times the DJI must make a nominal
                                       closing low before reversing.   The 2010 and 2011 corrections only ended when the
                                       DJI closed marginally below its previous lowest closing.  The NASDAQ is still
                                       17.6 points above its lowest closing level in the current correction and the SP-500
                                       is 14 points above its low. Bullish divergences at this point usually produce a
                                       successful reversing Peerless Buy signal.  So, by this approach we still need more
                                       weakness. 

                                                                         DJI Hourly Chart



                                                                          DJI Daily Chart






                                       We have no Buy signal yet from the current Peerless program.  However,
                                       the 2006-Peerless  (which was not back-tested for the periods 1928-1965
                                       or 2006-2015 did give a minor Buy B8 based on the improvement
                                       of the P-Indicator.  This Buy signal assumes that we judge the market now to
                                       still be in a trading range.  The breakdown below 17000 negated that, I believe.
                                       The DJI and the US markets need to prove themselves.  We should not
                                       assume that we have not started a bear market, considering that we are
                                       at the end of Fed subsidies of big bank investments in the stock market,
                                       that there are world-wide Deflations in stocks, commodities and consumer demand
                                       and that the same leveraged vehicles that produced this artificial bull market
                                       may soon be used in reverse if 15600 on the DJI does not hold. 

                                       Perhaps, this view will prove to be too bearish.  One might consider
                                       the current market a "correction" until the DJI drops and closes down more
                                       than, say, 15% or 20% below its highest closing.  For myself,  I
                                       would rather just wait to see a new Peerless Buy from the current Peerless.
                                       It has been carefully back-tested over the whole period, 1928-2015.

                                       The Russell-2000 did make a new low today. Its ETF (IWM) was down
                                       twice as much as the DJI.  IWM fell for the 7th straight day.  Volume was
                                       very high.  It is now down 16% from its high.  Both its Opening and
                                       Closing Power are falling.

                                       Should we cover our short sales in IWM and some of the numerous MINCP
                                       stocks that have been hit hard?  In 2008, I did a lengthy study of bear
                                       market shorts.  The conclusion I reached then was that we are best served
                                       by using a break in the steep Closing Power downtrend to time the
                                       covering of Bearish MINCP short sales.  This argues against covering now.


 
                                       There is another reason not to cover just yet.  I noticed today that the most
                                       apparent reason for today's sell-off was that NY Fed Governor said rates
                                       would almost certainly go up later this year. 
                                       See http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-fed-speaks-and-investors-scratch-their-heads/ar-AAeSD9M
                                                    But this is hardly news.  This is what Chairwoman Yellen said on Sept 18th
                                       at the FOMC meeting.  In fact, today, Chicago Fed Governor Evans said he felt
                                       the FED should wait until next year.  So, there was no obvious reason for
                                       all the selling.  But, it was very widespread today.   While we could consider
                                       covering some of our short-sales as a "public service".  We we are usually
                                       better off waiting for the bad news to come out to cover.  If we cover now,
                                       we may just be forced to go short at lower prices.

                                       It's true that today's trading bore many of the outward characteristics of a
                                       selling climax.  It occurred on a Monday.  There were 8x more stocks down
                                       than up on the NYSE.  No stock on the NYSE made a new high.

                                       But if we look back to 1929, we see there are many more cases when big market
                                       declines began with such poor breadth numbers than they occurred at the
                                       bottom or even before a big rally. Using a ratio of more than 7 decliners
                                       to advancers would actually have brought good Sell signals in 63% of the
                                       cases when they occurred when the DJI was down more than 11%
                                       and the DJI was either in a correction or starting a bear markets.

                                                     How Well Did A Daily Ratio of More than
                                                         7 NYSE Decliners to Advancers Work as
                                                   A Sell Signal When DJI Declined More Than 10% from Highs?
               
                                                                         Good                   Bad (It was at or near the bottom.)

                                              Oct-Dec 1929        3                         1
                                              Aug-Dec 1937       8                          1
                                              May 1940              1                          1
                                              Aug-Dec 1941       7       
                                              1946                      4                          1
                                              1948-1949            3                          1
                                              June 1950              2
                                              1957                      3                          1
                                              1962                      5                          2
                                              1965                                                  1
                                              1966                      1                          1
                                              1968                                                  1
                                              1969                                                  1
                                              1973                                                  1
                                              1978                      3                          1
                                              1979                      1                          1
                                              1980                      3                          1
                                              1981                      1                          1
                                              1987                      1                          1
                                              1990                                                  1
                                              1997                                                  1
                                               2007-2008           1                           1
                                               2010                                                 4
                                               2011                     2                          2
                                               2015                                                 1
                                               ================================            
                                                      49 successes (63.5%)    28 failures (36.5%)

                                             Most Stocks Are probably Already in Bear Markets

                                       Only 13% of the 6000 stocks we get data for each night are now above their 65-dma. 
                                       There is lots of resistance overhead and Down Volume remains much greater than Up
                                       Volume. In these circumstances, especially at this time of year, it's unlikely that
|                                       the 65-dma will even be reached.   The 21-day ma of unadjusted NYSE Up
                                       Volume minus Down Volume made another new low today.
                                       As long as it is falling, we should not expect the DJI to escape the need
                                       for a full re-testing of its recent lows.  The falling A/D Line sends the same message.


  =========================  Previously Here ==========================================
                                      
                                       What would we buy?  The number of new lows is too low to encourage us to
                                       expect anything more than modest moves by the Bullish MAXCs.  True, we see
                                       a handful of  Finance stocks among the Bullish MAXCPs.  This is not much leadership.
                                       It is defensive, based on dividends and selective rather than representative of an
                                       industry-wide move. .

                                       If this correction was over, the "natural leaders" upwards would be biotechs,
                                       semiconductors and big banks.  But these groups are still falling.  Down volume
                                       is still very heavy among them and their Closing Powers are falling. 

                                       Too many stocks are starting to look more and more like the weak oil/gas sector
                                       and the very troubled foreign ETFs.  We see this when we plot the Tiger Index of
                                       each of the Groups of stocks we track or simply watch the percentage of each
                                       Group's stocks that are above their 65-dma.  These numbers now show how few
                                       Groups or sectors are holding up and how defensive the market has become.
                                       There is no hurry to buy something now. Bond Funds, Beverages and
                                       Utilities offer only small gains.  Perhaps, after a successful mid-October
                                       test of the lows, this picture will change.  

                                       There is something else to watch.  Profound weakness in the Big Banks was the primary
                                       warning of trouble ahead in 2007.  I think we should now be asking why are big banks
                                       acting much weaker than the general market now.

                                      Pct of Stocks in a
                                      Group above their 65-dma.

                                      60%-70%    Bond Funds
                                      50%-60%    Beverages
                                      40%-50%    Airlines,  Utility.
                                      30%-40%    Education, Gold, Insurance, REITS, Retails
                                      20%-30%    Computers, Green. Hackers,  Home Building, Military, NASD-100, Russell-1000,
                                                          Semi-Conductors,  Software, SP-500, Transportation.
.                                     10%-20%    Autos, Biotechs, China, DJI-30,  Electronics, Finance, Ind. Materials, Regional Banks,
                                       0%-10%     Big Banks, Chemistry, Coal, Foreign ETFs, Gaming, Oil Gas, Pipe Lines, Solar,

                                      
                                                                   

                                     The DJI is doing its job well.  This Blue Chip average very often at the
                                     end of a bull market has the special duty of maintaining the appearance
                                     that all is well with the US stock market and that all dips are therefore
                                     buying opportunities.  This is why the DJI often tops out after the
                                     NYSE A/D Line does, why the number of new lows on the NYSE
                                     and NASDAQ can be greater than the number of new highs even
                                     as the DJI rises, and how institutions are able to get out of big positions
                                     in stocks even as they top out.  Thus Friday, though the DJI rose 113 for
                                     the day, saw 129 more down than up on the NYSE,  Down Volume
                                     was 53 million more than Up Volume and there were 8 times more new lows
                                     than new highs.

                                     One of the most common ways the DJI strengthens the illusion that all
                                     is well, is by having one of its higher priced components jump up
                                     inordinately.  That was true on Friday when NIKE rose +10.21.  This one
                                     stock single-handedly lifted the DJIA by 68.2 points. 

                                                   When Is The Correction Typically Over?

                                     When we look back at the Peerless indicators in the past we can see 
                                     how to judge a correction is over.  The best way is normally to simply wait
                                     for a new Peerless Buy.  No Peerless Buy signal seems likely now
                                     until the DJI retests its lows near 15600-15700.  In addition, we should look
                                     for reversal price patterns, such as a breakout above a precisely formed
                                     flat top (example June 1940), a compact inverted head/shoulders (August 1950
                                     and July 1965) or a falling wedge (Nov. 1971).  The NYSE A/D Line will
                                     often break a well-defined and well-tested downtrend-line. 

                                     But most commonly, and this was a surprise to me when I did the investigating today,
                                     we see the correction ending only when the 21-day ma of Unadjusted
                                     Up Volume minus Down Volume turns up.  If you are using Peerless, see some
                                     examples of this: March 1968,  October 1975, December 1978, November 1979,
                                     October 1997, March 2000, April 2001, September 2007, July 2010 and October 2011.
                                     Conclusion: since the the 21-day ma of Unadjusted Up Volume minus Down Volume is making
                                     new lows now, the correction is probably not over.

                                                       Troublesome Volume Signs in DJI Now.

      


                                                           


                                                        Stay Short IWM
   
                              IWM would need to rise by 4.1 point tomorrow to turn up its
                              5-day ma.  Its red down-day volume has dominated trading. 
                              It needs to more closely test its lows.



                                             
                                                     

 ======================================================================================
                                                            Earlier Studies:
======================================================================================
                              
                                            Bearish Seasonality Study from Tuesday Night....
 

                               It\s hard to be bullish now when we take into account Seasonality.
                               Since 1965, the DJI has fallen 55% of the time this week.  And since 1999,
                               the bearishness usually lasts for the next three weeks.   In this period,
                               we see a regular pattern of DJI declines from Aug-Sept highs to a mid-October
                               low.  We see this pattern below in 11 of the years 16 years since 1999,
                               where the DJI's bottom was not made until 10/10 and 11/26 (Thanksgiving.)

                                           Year   Low Closing                        Peerless Signal
                                           -------------------------------------------------------------------           
                                          1999    10/14   12% below peak      B1, B3 at bottom.
                                          2000    10/18   12% below peak      B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2001    9/21    Bottom after 9/11      B16 at bottom
                                          2002    10/19   19% below Aug peak B1, B16 at bottom.
                                          2003    9/30    4% below Sept peak  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.

                                          2004    10/22  5.5% below Sept peak. B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2005    10/22  4.5% below Aug peak.  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.
                                          2006    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2007    11/26  10% below Sept peak. B3, B14, B18 at bottom.
                                          2008    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.

                                          2009    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2010    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
                                          2011    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2012    11/26  8% below Sept peak. B2 at bottom.
                                          2013    10/10  6% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
 
                                          2014    10/16  6.5% below August peak.  B1 at bottom.  
 

      TABLE A       When Does A Decline Become Really Dangerous?
     

                             We have seen how the DJI recently did find support at the lowest possible level consistent
                             with it making only a corrective decline.  There were 30 "corrections", each producing
                             a decline of less than 14%.  This was more than two and a half times the number of bear
                             markets that brought a decline of more than 20%.

                             But now look at what happens when there is a DJI decline more than 14.5%.  There
                             were 15 cases where the decline was at least 19%.  These are highlighted
                             in red:   1929, 1937, 1940, 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1973-4,  1977, 1981-2,
                            1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-3, 2007-9.  There were only four declines of 15% and 18%.
                            (1948, 1971, 1980 and 2017) and there were three declines of 19% to 21%:
                            1957, 1980 and 1998.  By contrast, there were 12 bear markets where DJI fell
                            more than 21%.  So, the odds are are almost 4:1 that any DJI decline of more
                            than 14.5% will see the DJI fall more than 19% from its highs.                           
 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
  

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                   Additional Notes 
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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