TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline  
                     
(C) 1985-2015 William Schmidt, Ph.D.  www.tigersoft.com    
                  All rights strictly reserved.  

        ===> New TigerSoft Weekly Charts are Coming on all stocks.  
                We want them to be viewable using the same categories we use with the Daily data.

Tiger Software  858-273-5900   PO Box 22784   San Diego, CA 92192 Email william_schmidt@hotmail.com  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                                                    
                  9/22/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                  9/22/2015
        New Highs: NASD  6     NYSE    1
        New Lows:  NASD  78   NYSE  141
                                                 
          9/22/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.     
       96  -8  ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-22-2015/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         145 +25   -->  http://www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-22-2015/Bearish.html
                          Professionals used today's rally to short more stocks.
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          9/22/2015     At this writing, the DJI is down only 8 points in overnight trading.
                               It had been down 120 earlier.  The Bulls are not surrendering easily
                               to the Bears yet.  A short-term rally is probable.

                               But the Hourly DJIA has broken its well-tested uptrtendline.
                               This has opened the door for the DJI to test its recent low closing at
                               15666.44, about 854 or 5% below today's close.  Tests of lows
                               following steep declines occur in 2/3 of the cases when the
                               DJI sells off 10% to 14%.  A rally here only delays the formation
                               of a better, more solid bottom.   Stay short plenty of Bearish MINCPs
                               and DIA, for the time being.  Daily volume seems too low
                               to let us predict the DJI will be able to get up past 16800. 
                              
                              



                               It\s hard to be bullish now when we take into account Seasonality.
                               Since 1965, the DJI has fallen 55% of the time this week.  And since 1999,
                               the bearishness usually lasts for the next three weeks.   In this period,
                               we see a regular pattern of DJI declines from Aug-Sept highs to a mid-October
                               low.  We see this pattern below in 11 of the years 16 years since 1999,
                               where the DJI's bottom was not made until 10/10 and 11/26 (Thanksgiving.)

                                           Year   Low Closing                        Peerless Signal
                                           -------------------------------------------------------------------           
                                          1999    10/14   12% below peak      B1, B3 at bottom.
                                          2000    10/18   12% below peak      B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2001    9/21    Bottom after 9/11      B16 at bottom
                                          2002    10/19   19% below Aug peak B1, B16 at bottom.
                                          2003    9/30    4% below Sept peak  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.

                                          2004    10/22  5.5% below Sept peak. B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2005    10/22  4.5% below Aug peak.  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.
                                          2006    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2007    11/26  10% below Sept peak. B3, B14, B18 at bottom.
                                          2008    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.

                                          2009    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2010    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
                                          2011    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2012    11/26  8% below Sept peak. B2 at bottom.
                                          2013    10/10  6% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
 
                                          2014    10/16  6.5% below August peak.  B1 at bottom.  

                         Stay Short More Than You Are Long           

              Volume rose on today's decline, the 5-day mvg.avgs. are falling and
              the minor uptrend support was violated for the DJI, DIA, SP-500 and SPY. 
              I would think a retest of the closing lows still lies ahead.  Most of the
              Bearish MINCPs keep falling.  Our Stocks' Hotline is short twice as many
              of these very weak Bearish MINCPs as we are long among the Bullish MAXCPs.


                            
                                Watch Uptrends of NYSE A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index.

                           While the OBV Lines for the Daily Indexes' and general markets ETF's
                           are weaker than prices, we now see positive reading from the DJI's Accum.
                           Index and P-I.  This reflects, I think, how low interest rates continue to
                           help utilities and bonds.  A few stocks like AAPL are seeing their long
                           Closing Power downtrends break, but leadership is missing.  Very few
                           stocks are making new highs.  More than 80% of all stocks are below
                           the resistance of their 65-dma.  Overhead resistance has been clearly
                           established by Thursday's sudden reversal down from 16800.

                           But it now looks like we will probably now need to see a break in the
                           minor NYSE uptrend-line to confirm that a DJI decline back to 15666
                           has started.   The DJI and the big US stocks' ETFs will try to hold
                           up against continuing overseas declines.  I take the The continuing
                           Closing Power weakness in the big bank stocks', JPM, GS, WFC and BAC,
                           as a sign the DJI has not built a reliable bottom yet.  
                           See these and other charts at www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html                         





                             
 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              Earlier Studies:                             

      TABLE A       When Does A Decline Become Really Dangerous?
     

                             We have seen how the DJI recently did find support at the lowest possible level consistent
                             with it making only a corrective decline.  There were 30 "corrections", each producing
                             a decline of less than 14%.  This was more than two and a half times the number of bear
                             markets that brought a decline of more than 20%.

                             But now look at what happens when there is a DJI decline more than 14.5%.  There
                             were 15 cases where the decline was at least 19%.  These are highlighted
                             in red:   1929, 1937, 1940, 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1973-4,  1977, 1981-2,
                            1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-3, 2007-9.  There were only four declines of 15% and 18%.
                            (1948, 1971, 1980 and 2017) and there were three declines of 19% to 21%:
                            1957, 1980 and 1998.  By contrast, there were 12 bear markets where DJI fell
                            more than 21%.  So, the odds are are almost 4:1 that any DJI decline of more
                            than 14.5% will see the DJI fall more than 19% from its highs.                           
 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
  

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                   Additional Notes 
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
  ------------------------     Announcements --------------------------------