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                  9/9/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                   9/10/2015
        New Highs: NASD  15       NYSE   4
        New Lows:  NASD  35       NYSE  63
                                                 
          9/92015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5  
              These will be posted later tonight.               
       48  ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9/10/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
         289 +176     -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/9-9/MINCP.html
                      
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     9/10/2015        The operative Peerless signal remains a Sell S14.  Breadth today did
                             not match the size of the DJI's advance.  In addition, new lows expanded
                             greatly as did the number of MINCP stocks.  See below how the
                             Hourly DISI-OBV Line has turned down ahead of prices.  A decline must be
                             expected.  If it breaks its hourly uptrend-line now at 16178, look for
                             a quick test of 15700.  If the support there is broken by 100 points
                             on a closing basis, I would think we will see a much bigger decline.                                     

                                                                 Hourly DJIA



                             Because the current Sell S14, unlike S14s in the past, has occurred
                             without the DJI falling more than 14% from its highs, there is still a chance
                             that the DJI will simply go sidewise for some time and eventually
                             get back above 17000.  Accordingly, I have suggested a hedged trading
                             position using a few of our Bullish MAXCP stocks.  More of the Bearish
                             MINCP stocks should now be shorted.  They are showing very little ability to
                             rally even on days the DJI is up.

                                   

                             Below are weakest leveraged ETFs using the Tiger QuickSilver approach
                             where we rank stocks for the annualized rate of change of their 5-day ma
                             and require their Opening and Closing Powers to be falling and their
                             current Accum. Index (IP21) to be below -.20.  Much weaker individual
                             stocks are found in the Tiger group "FASTDOWN".  All the ones shown
                             also show rising red volume on a decline today.
 

Directory= C:\leverage date= 09/10/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
-119.5        JPNL Japan.   41.45         41.68         43.75         -.39
-.21          106           Falling       Falling       .542          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-180.9        DYY Commod.   3.44          3.57          3.56          -.14
-.42          81            Falling       Falling       .361          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Directory= C:\shortetf date= 09/10/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
24            TTT (20-y Treas)40.22       39.52         39.47         .74
.29           102           Rising        Rising        .438          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Directory= C:\fastdown date= 09/10/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
-608.2        HLX           6.15          6.5           6.78          -.2
-.24          59            Falling       Falling       .434          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-613.1        KLIC          9.36          10.26         10.74         -.58
-.21          95            Falling       Falling       .454          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-709.8        SSH           2.59          2.74          2.88          -.08
-.23          21            Falling       Falling       .454          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-785.3        BRS           31.04         34.66         36.75         -2.61
-.35          85            Falling       Falling       .458          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-788.3        SCX           12.8          14.19         15.14         -.77
-.4           48            Falling       Falling       .518          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-906.7        LULU          53.54         62.82         64.95         -10.51
-.26          110           Falling       Falling       .514          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-978          CBK           1.38          1.57          1.64          -.22
-.31          45            Falling       Falling       .406          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-984          CSUN          1.14          1.32          1.36          -.2
-.25          68            Falling       Falling       .402          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1004.5       UNT           11.86         13            14.15         -.5
-.27          75            Falling       Falling       .414          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1077.5       JOY           17.94         18.61         18.9          -.68
-.28          77            Falling       Falling       .422          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-2125.9       AAMC          25            30.13         35.57         -2.22
-.45          126           Falling       Falling       .414          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                 When Does A Decline Become Really Dangerous?
     

                             We have seen how the DJI recently did find support at the lowest possible level consistent
                             with it making only a corrective decline.  There were 30 "corrections", each producing
                             a decline of less than 14%.  This was more than two and a half times the number of bear
                             markets that brought a decline of more than 20%.

                             But now look at what happens when there is a DJI decline more than 14%.  There
                             were 15 cases where the decline was at least 19%.  These are highlighted
                             in red:   1929, 1937, 1940, 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1973-4,  1977, 1981-2,
                            1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-3, 2007-9.  There were only four declines of 15% and 18%.
                            (1948, 1971, 1980 and 2017) and there were three declines of 19% to 21%:
                            1957, 1980 and 1998.  By contrast, there were 12 bear markets where DJI fell
                            more than 21%.  So, the odds are are almost 2:1 that any DJI decline of more
                            than 14% will see the DJI fall more than 20% from its highs.                           
 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
 
                                                          The FED Is The Key Now.
|
                       There is just too much uncertainty that the Fed will start raising rates for the market
                       to move much higher and this is complicated by the next Jobs' Report coming
                       out of Friday.   What the FED has artificially created in the way of a long bull market
                       built on free money to big banks, it could quickly take away,  if the recent 13.5% DJI
                       decline is any indication. There are those who tell us the short term bonds show only
                       a 22% chance that September will bring a rate hike.
                       (See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/jobs-forecast-is-another-reason-for-the-fed-not-to-raise-rates.html?action=click&contentCollection=Economy&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article )

                       I am not so sure the odds are not closer to 50%. I believe the meeting will be
                       quite contentious. The outspoken "hawks" and the "doves" are about equal in number.
                       Janet Yellen, the supposedly dovish Chairwoman, has been mysteriously quiet recently
                       and out of sight. She did not go to their annual Wyoming meeting to talk with the other
                       Fed Governors.   Has there been a rebellion against her?  Is she becoming more hawkish
                       so that she can remain in control.  She apparently sees herself as the
                       impartial chairwoman who states the "consensus" of views at the end of the
                       FOMC meeting.  She is cautious.  And a cautious person would probably
                       wait until the evidence is stronger and the opinions more conclusively in favor
                       of a rate hike.
                      
                       Still, only the New York FED Governor, Dudley, has spoken out recently
                       to advocate caution in the face of the extreme bear market in developing countries,
                       the Chinese market's meltdown, falling oil prices and falling commodity prices.
                       Several other Fed Governors are on record recently as favoring a rate hike soon,
                       despite the signs of world-wide Deflation and the economic downturns overseas. 

                       Once upon a time, I was interviewed by the CIA to be a Kremlinologist, one who
                       studied the divergent interests and pronouncements of the dozen or so members
                       of the Soviet Union's Presidium.  I think I still have an interest in the politics of
                       secretive power-elites.  So, today I made a list of all the FED members of the
                       Open Market Committee, those who will decide on September 17th, whether
                       to raise short-term rates and tried to find on the internet what exactly they had last
                       said on the subject.  Let me show you what I found.  The conclusion I draw from
                       this exercise is that there may well now be a majority for a rate hike, even though
                       a majority of the Open Market Committee are considered more dovish than hawkish.

                       I plan to keep this list of t he key Fed policy-makers handy.  I will try  to refer to it
                       each time one of these FED members makes a public statement.  We will want to
                       see how they may be shifting their position and their intra-committee alliances.
                     
                                               Members of Fed's Open Market Committee:
                                 (They decide "by consensus" whether to raise short-term rates.)

                        5 Doves: Dudley, Evans,  Rosengren, Brainard, Tarullo

                        3 Doves shifting in favor of a rate hike: Yellen, Williams, Lockhart

                        6 Hawks: Fischer, Lacker, Powell, Bullard, Mester, George

                      (  What is a hawk?  What is a dove?    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_hawk_and_dove )
                             In 2013, Business Week made the same break-down that I am attempting here.
                                    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-2013-fomc-member-profiles-2013-1?op=1
                             Deutche Bank offered an assessment of the two camps within the Fed at the end of 2015.
                                    http://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-policy/fed-its-fomc-composition/

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                 Notes from last night.
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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