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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/25/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoft.com/HH/Index.html 
                            ===>   4 Horsemen of Deflation

                        8/25/2015
        New Highs: NASD  1          NYSE  2
        New Lows:  NASD  96       NYSE 202
                                                 
            8/25/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5                 
     143 ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-25/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
      688 -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-25/MINCP.html
                      
         
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     8/25/2015   New Peerless Buy B16.  The DJI's 336 point last hour decline looks false.

                       

                       The DJI's loss brought a nominal closing low below Monday's close; 
                       yet, there were only 364 more down than up on the New York. 
                       Unless the DJI  is now going to lead the whole market into a nose-dive,
                       this action looks like it has brought to us a very trade-able bottom. 
                       See in the Hourly DJI chart below the 3x tested support level at 15730. 
                       Traders can buy now and  use sell stops just below 15700 on an hourly basis.


                       
                                                             Positives

                       The minimum downside objective from the DJI's head/shoulders has now been achieved.
                       The DJI has now fallen 13.5% from its previous high.  Simply buying on 10%-13.5%
                       declines since 1928 in bull markets would have worked out nicely for traders
                       77% of the time.  (See research shown below).

                       Seasonality is good, too, short-term.  Pre-Labor-Day rallies are worth playing.
                       Since 1965, the DJI has risen 59.2% over the next 10 trading days.                                   


                                                      New Peerless Buy B16...
                                 The Broken Support at 17000 Seems A Good Target

                       More important, today's DJI close brought a reversing Peerless Buy B16. 
                       It closes out the previous Sell S12 very profitably.   Buy B16 are noteworthy
                       because of how successfully they can reverse very steep declines and also
                       call bottoms in bear markets.  The average DJI gain for all 26 Buy B16s
                       since 1928 is  a whopping 19.9% at the time of the next Peerless Sell. 
                       There were no trading losses and paper losses were small. 

                       The Dam is still leaking badly.  I do not think we will see a recovery back
                       above 17500 before the DJI declines again.  That would make the August 1971
                       parallel the closest I can find.  See chart below.  I have to remain
                       very worried about how the market will fare later this Fall.  This is because
                       of how long the bull market has been rising, because, I see no
                       "fix" for the many contradictions that Wall Street's form of capitalism
                       has created and because the 4 horsemen of the Deflationary Apocalypse
                       cannot easily reverse their steep downtrends.
      
                       Furthermore, it should be noted, Buy 16s in Augusts, like our's, or in the 3rd-Year
                       of the 4-year Presidential cycle, like we are in now, had much smaller returns, only
                       about 3%-5%...
                     
                                                         New Buy B16
 
                                                            shoulder            head            shoulder           

                                                 1971   Buy B16

                                It followed a head/shoulders pattern,
                                took place after a 10% decline from the peak
                                and brought only a 5.5% gain.  Its rally was
                                stopped by the neckline of its earlier head/shoulders
                                extended further and new S9s and S12s.
      
 

                             

                                                          
                                              This Buy B16's Parameters 

                    Buy B16s can occur at various distances from the 21-day and 50-day ma.
                    The variation used now is for when the DJI closes 7% to 10% below the 21-day ma
                    and meets other conditions.  There have been  13 earlier cases since 1928. 
                    So, this must be considered a statistically significant signal. 

                         VB Code for this particular type of Buy B16

                  For i = 70 To RN ' Buy B16 J  (RN = number of days in file.)
                        For j = i - 36 To i
                        If s9(j) = 9 Then GoTo 24040
                 Next j
                        If mo(i) = 7 Then 24040
                        If mo(i) = 9 Then 24040
                        If mo(i) = 10 And da(i) < 7 Then 24040
                        If mo(i) = 2 Then 24040

                   annroc = (250 * (ma(i) - ma(i - 1)) / ma(i - 1))  (MA = 21-day ma of closes)
                      If annroc < -2 Then 24040
                      If pvv(i) < -517 Then 24040  (PVV = V-I)
                               If newipxxx(i) < -.19 Then 24040  (IP21)
                               If la(i) / ma65(i) < .86 Then 24040
                               If la(i) / ma65(i) > .89 Then 24040
    If la(i) / ma(i) > .9 And la(i) / ma(i) < .93 Then BINGO!: pi = i: s9(i) = 116: mb(i) = 16: : maxoversold (pi): : i = i + 5:
                   24040 Next i
 

  ====================================================================================

             From last night....   
        
                           The Four Horsemen of The Deflation Apocalypse 
                  (Key Charts of Commodites, Foerign ETFs, Oil and Chinese Stocks)

            The politicians that run the US and Europe have no long-term solution.   
            Deflation means FEAR is ascendant.  It becomes increasingly difficult in a real
            deflation to spur investment or consumption, except by massive government spending
            on war preparations or Public Works and infrastructure. 

            Without different priorities and government policies, a severe economic slow-down even
            in the US is apt to  follow.  Mark my words: Wall Street's version of capitalism is going to
            be blamed again and again in this new political season.  Already Sanders does this and
            brings huge crowds in.  Trump's big crowds here implicitly blame corporations for not
            showing sufficient patriotism when it comes to jobs and plant locations. And next month,
            the anti-global-capitalist Pope will address Congress, thanks to Republican Catholics.
            Yes, it will probably be a "difficult" Autumn for stocks.  There's no need to hurry
            and buy.

                                              A 10%-13.5% Correction?

            ...Let's look at the evidence that there will be a recovery now that the DJI is down
            between 10% and 13.5%.  Below are the corrections before a Bull market peak and the
            start of a bear market.  There were 16 such corrections between 1928 and 2014 which
            led to a higher peak and then a bear market.  There were 13 such corrections, which
            did not lead to a deeper decline. But in 8 cases, major market tops were made without a
            10%-13.5% decline occurring first as a warning.  In other words, the market just kept falling
            when it reached the 13.5%-down level. 

             From this, we might make the historic odds something like 29 (16 +13) to 8 that
             a significant bottom will be made between 15900 and 16500,  or 78%.

         >  1928-1929 before the September 1929 peak:             3 10% corrections.
         >  April-May 1936  10% correction.  No bear market
         >  1937 before the August 1939 peak                             1 15% correction.                                                                  
         >  1940-1941 before July 1941  peak                             1  16% correction
         >  1946 before July 1946  peak                                       1  10% correction
         >  June-July 1950     10% correction. No bear market
         >  Sept-Oct 1955     10% correction. No bear market
         >  1956 before the July 1957 peak                                  2 10% corrections.  
         >  1959 before the January 1960 peak                            1 9% correction.
         1   No 10% corrections before November 1961 top - instead there was a massive head/shoulders  
         >  1965 before January 1966  peak                                 1  10% correction
         >  1967-1968 before December 1968  peak                   1  12% correction
         2   No 10% corrections before April 1971 top - instead there was a perfect head/shoulders 
         3   No 10% corrections before January 1973 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s.  
         >  July-October 1975  10% correction. No bear market.
         4   No 10% corrections before December 1976 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s. 
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1978.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              11% decline in Oct-Nov 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              16% decline in Feb-April 1980.   No deeper bear market.
          >  1980 before the April 1981 peak                            1 10% correction.
          5   No 10% corrections before January 1983 top - At top there was an  S12.
          6   No 10% corrections before August 1987 top - At tops there was an  S4, S9 and S12.
          >  1989-1990 before the July1990 peak:                   2  10% corrections.
              11% decline in Feb-April 1994.   No deeper bear market.
              10% decline in May-July 1996.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Aug-October 1997.   No deeper bear market.
          7   No 10% corrections before July - October 1998 top - At tops there was an  S12.
               >  1999 before the January 2000 peak                  1  11% correction.  
               9% decline in much of 2004.   No deeper bear market. 
                >  2007 before the October 2007 peak                1  10% correction.  
               13.5% decline in April - July 2010.   No deeper bear market.
           8   No 10% corrections before May - October 2011 top and 18% Decline- At tops there was an  S12.
                                                                   
           ?   No 10% corrections before May - August 2015 top.
                                                                     A 13% decline would take DJI down to 15700.
           
             But just because the historic odds are 78% that a 10%-13.5% decline brings
             a very tradable bottom, that does not mean we should buy yet.  We need to
             see a Peerless Buy signal, some signs of a reversal, an end to the acceleration
             of down volume, and some signs that the free-falls in Crude Oil, Commodities
             foreign ETFs and Chinese stock has ended in some fashion.  We probably
             should also wait to see what the Fed intends to do, if anything.  So, tomorrow,
             while everyone else is panicking or trying to pick a bottom, we might want
             to just watch all the commotion from the sidelines.   

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%



         

 

    
                Most Bullish and Most Bearish 5-day MA Leveraged ETFS

        >Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20
        >Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
        The new Tiger/Peerless programs build these rankings and shows their stocks automatically.
 

Directory= C:\LEVERAGE date= 08/25/15
Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20   

Directory= C:\leverage date= 08/25/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
1751.7        TECS          51.92         45.17         37.88         1.61
.2            125           Rising        Rising        .45           vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1268.1        DWTI          218           206.32        190           -13.9
.33           111           Rising        Rising        .578          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1202.2        SKF           56.35         50.69         45.44         1.87
.23           74            Rising        Rising        .47           vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1198.7        BIS           35.57         32.69         28.5          -.23
.27           89            Rising        Rising        .454          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1198.1        QID           41.11         37.48         32.96         .36
.2            83            Rising        Rising        .47           vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
933           SCO           130.53        124.8         117.35        -4.85
.31           127           Rising        Rising        .582          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
875.9         SDD           42.84         39.29         36.19         1.78
.45           66            Rising        Rising        .321          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
645.2         DTO           127.72        123.93        119.49        -2.87
.3            138           Rising        Rising        .582          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
591.6         DDG           32.43         31.23         29.4          -.62
.31           154           Rising        Rising        .51           vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
405.3         ULE           17.56         17.17         16.47         -.38
.31           100           Rising        Rising        .446          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
  

Directory= C:\leverage date= 08/25/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
-1015.4       MLPL          29.7          32.08         35.24         .03
-.23          63            Falling       Falling       .486          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1077.7       UCO           17.85         18.96         20.23         .56
-.29          62            Falling       Falling       .418          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1469.2       DIG           29.51         33.25         37.65         -.33
-.22          83            Falling       Falling       .426          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1593.5       UWTI          .78           .85           .93           .04
-.22          53            Falling       Falling       .418          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1614.8       INDL          12.93         15.21         18.53         .76
-.2           90            Falling       Falling       .526          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1730.9       TECL          25.47         30.14         35.92         -.85
-.24          116           Falling       Falling       .534          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-2324.3       ERX           23.5          29.11         35.17         -1.18
-.23          82            Falling       Falling       .442          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
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