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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/24/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoft.com/HH/Index.html 

                        8/24/2015
        New Highs: NASD  5          NYSE  3
        New Lows:  NASD  410       NYSE 866
                                                 
            8/24/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5                 
     132 ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-24/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
      314 -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-24/MINCP.html
                      
         
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     8/24/2015  
            In calamitous trading, the DJI closed down 5% and 13.5% below its
            peak.   As I write this, it DJI's futures are up 477.  China is cutting
            its interest rates.  (That may not be only enough for a short-term
            bounce. By themselves, rate-cuts don't seem to stop the start of
            bear markets.  So, I think that we we will want to watch the short-term
            up-trend-lines to see when prices again breakdown to start a re-testing
           .of the lows.  The declining 5-day (35-hour) ma must be expected
            to be resistance. A retest of the lows as early as Friday seems likely
            in light of the 1987 parallel (discussed below)



                            Correction or Collapse?

            After a 10%-13.5% correction in a bull market since 1928,
            the DJI most often rallies nicely back up to its old highs if there is a Peerless Buy signal
            and a very good rebound by the DJI, but most often after it has re-tested its support. 

                                                           shoulder                head          shoulder


            So should we cover our short sales and be buyers?  Covering half the
            Bearish MINCPs we have shorted is probably a good idea tomorrow. 
            But buying  without a Peerless Buy signal is probably not warranted or safe.  Usually
            there is a re-test of the lows once the current uptrend-line on the Hourly
            DJI chart is broken.  That should offer a  better buying opportunity.

            The Peerless Sell S12*  was reinforced today by a Peerless S13.
            See http://www.tigersoft.com/PeerInst-2012-2013/Sell-S13/index.html
            This signal is based on a particularly rapidly DJI decline.  It warns us not
             to be fooled into thinking the decline is over even though the market
             has reached a very short-term over-sold position.  It is a rare signal,
             especially when one looks only at the cases where it occurs when the
             DJI is coming down from a bull market high. 

             How trustworthy is the S13 here?  Not so much, I'd say.

             Our current S13 did not quite reach the same bearish point that the other S13s did. 
             They all took place with the DJI, at least, 11% below the 21-day ma.  So,
             this one may be premature.

             Secondly, there has been only one case after 1946, and it failed.  The 
             Government's re-opening for normal business and QE-III are usually
             credited with turning the market back up in 2011. 

             Sell S13s are not the only thing Peerless uses to urge users to wait and
             not too quickly buy or cover their short sales.  When there are S9s and S12s,
             we usually wait 30 days to buy, unless we get a Buy B9 or B16.  And when there
             are DJI head and shoulders patterns, we know not to buy too soon, because
             there is usually a second test of the lows after the broken neckline's support-
             turned-into-resistance turns the DJI back down.

                               Today's Wild Trading and Learning from 1987
            
             Today was dangerously wild.  The DJI opened down 1000.  The lows of many
             stocks seem ridiculously out of character with previous volatility.  This downside
             volatility was brought about by leveraged ETF trading and Professionals' opportunism. 
             Professionals know that a weak Thursday and Friday often brings a rush of panic and
             emotional selling on Monday.  This is exactly what happened in the Crash of 1987.
             It is exactly what happened today.  Professionals and market makers let prices drop
             quickly on Monday and buy them later in the day and at the close, expecting a turn-around
             on Tuesday.  To better achieve that, they buy index futures in over-night trading to
             boost the market the next day.

             I think this exactly what is happening here, too.  "Psychology" is the best way to play
             the volatility that extreme emotions being.  But it is only useful short-term.  The stocks
             that were bought when the DJI was down 500-1000 today are apt to be quickly unloaded on
             the rebound.  So, the market may not immediately reverse much. The lesson for us in the
             Crash of 1987 for the Tuesday after the Blue Monday, is that Tuesday's turn-around
             will most likely not be followed-though by a further advance.  Instead, there will be
             soon be a test of the lows.  In the background, we have the bearish months of  September
             and October coming closer.  Watch the volume on the recovery.  It is very unlikely
             to compare well with the very heavy (red) down volume.

                                                      Lessons of 1987



           ===>    The Fed Must Do Something Now.

                                    The FED Cannot Allow The Dam To Break
                                    in the World's Strongest Stock Market...
                                    That would crush the American Consumer.

                                    Without American Consumers Buying Chinese
                                    Goods, Chinese Stocks Will Collapse.  The
                                    Chinese Goverment will then have to sell its
                                    huge holdings of US Treasuries.  That will
                                    force US Interest rates up very high!
                     

             I have to add a caveat, about tomorrow's rally not being extended much higher
             later in the weak.  And that is the FED.  The FED must be keenly aware that 
             US stocks cannot be allowed to breakdown badly.  If they do, the rich who
             own most stocks will become frightened.  As will 401-K owners.  American
             Consumer buying power is already limited by the disappearance of the Middle Class,
             by the fact that 1 in 7 Americans live below the poverty level and also by the extreme
             amount of personal debt.  The World Economy, Wall Street and Multinational
             Corporations cannot afford another American 2008 debacle. 

             So, the FED must do all it can to shore up the market right now.  It can loan lots of
             money to market makers like Greenspan did to stop the Crashes of 1987 and 1998.
             It can give banks lot of money to buy Futures overseas or even to support stocks.
             It can quietly tell its members to spread the word that the FED stands ready to
             do much more.  And all this is never made public.  The Fed operates in a
             world of secrecy.
              
 
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19291024      S13            299.5         .3        .887       26%     
19370910      S13            157.9         .252      .888       17% 
19400514      S13            128.3         .093      .877       15%
19460909      S13            172.0         .052      .889       15%
20110811      S13          10719.1        -.071      .888       15%
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
                          No = 5          .199
                         
=================================================================================================

             From last night....   
        
                           The Four Horsemen of The Deflation Apocalypse 
                  (Key Charts of Commodites, Foerign ETFs, Oil and Chinese Stocks)

            The politicians that run the US and Europe have no long-term solution.   
            Deflation means FEAR is ascendant.  It becomes increasingly difficult in a real
            deflation to spur investment or consumption, except by massive government spending
            on war preparations or Public Works and infrastructure. 

            Without different priorities and government policies, a severe economic slow-down even
            in the US is apt to  follow.  Mark my words: Wall Street's version of capitalism is going to
            be blamed again and again in this new political season.  Already Sanders does this and
            brings huge crowds in.  Trump's big crowds here implicitly blame corporations for not
            showing sufficient patriotism when it comes to jobs and plant locations. And next month,
            the anti-global-capitalist Pope will address Congress, thanks to Republican Catholics.
            Yes, it will probably be a "difficult" Autumn for stocks.  There's no need to hurry
            and buy.

                                              A 10%-13.5% Correction?

            ...Let's look at the evidence that there will be a recovery now that the DJI is down
            between 10% and 13.5%.  Below are the corrections before a Bull market peak and the
            start of a bear market.  There were 16 such corrections between 1928 and 2014 which
            led to a higher peak and then a bear market.  There were 13 such corrections, which
            did not lead to a deeper decline. But in 8 cases, major market tops were made without a
            10%-13.5% decline occurring first as a warning.  In other words, the market just kept falling
            when it reached the 13.5%-down level. 

             From this, we might make the historic odds something like 29 (16 +13) to 8 that
             a significant bottom will be made between 15900 and 16500,  or 78%.

         >  1928-1929 before the September 1929 peak:             3 10% corrections.
         >  April-May 1936  10% correction.  No bear market
         >  1937 before the August 1939 peak                             1 15% correction.                                                                  
         >  1940-1941 before July 1941  peak                             1  16% correction
         >  1946 before July 1946  peak                                       1  10% correction
         >  June-July 1950     10% correction. No bear market
         >  Sept-Oct 1955     10% correction. No bear market
         >  1956 before the July 1957 peak                                  2 10% corrections.  
         >  1959 before the January 1960 peak                            1 9% correction.
         1   No 10% corrections before November 1961 top - instead there was a massive head/shoulders  
         >  1965 before January 1966  peak                                 1  10% correction
         >  1967-1968 before December 1968  peak                   1  12% correction
         2   No 10% corrections before April 1971 top - instead there was a perfect head/shoulders 
         3   No 10% corrections before January 1973 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s.  
         >  July-October 1975  10% correction. No bear market.
         4   No 10% corrections before December 1976 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s. 
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1978.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              11% decline in Oct-Nov 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              16% decline in Feb-April 1980.   No deeper bear market.
          >  1980 before the April 1981 peak                            1 10% correction.
          5   No 10% corrections before January 1983 top - At top there was an  S12.
          6   No 10% corrections before August 1987 top - At tops there was an  S4, S9 and S12.
          >  1989-1990 before the July1990 peak:                   2  10% corrections.
              11% decline in Feb-April 1994.   No deeper bear market.
              10% decline in May-July 1996.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Aug-October 1997.   No deeper bear market.
          7   No 10% corrections before July - October 1998 top - At tops there was an  S12.
               >  1999 before the January 2000 peak                  1  11% correction.  
               9% decline in much of 2004.   No deeper bear market. 
                >  2007 before the October 2007 peak                1  10% correction.  
               13.5% decline in April - July 2010.   No deeper bear market.
           8   No 10% corrections before May - October 2011 top and 18% Decline- At tops there was an  S12.
                                                                   
           ?   No 10% corrections before May - August 2015 top.
                                                                     A 13% decline would take DJI down to 15700.
           
             But just because the historic odds are 78% that a 10%-13.5% decline brings
             a very tradable bottom, that does not mean we should buy yet.  We need to
             see a Peerless Buy signal, some signs of a reversal, an end to the acceleration
             of down volume, and some signs that the free-falls in Crude Oil, Commodities
             foreign ETFs and Chinese stock has ended in some fashion.  We probably
             should also wait to see what the Fed intends to do, if anything.  So, tomorrow,
             while everyone else is panicking or trying to pick a bottom, we might want
             to just watch all the commotion from the sidelines.   

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%



         

 

    
                Most Bullish and Most Bearish 5-day MA Leveraged ETFS

        >Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20
        >Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
        The new Tiger/Peerless programs build these rankings and shows their stocks automatically.
 

Directory= C:\LEVERAGE date= 08/241/15
Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20 
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
1566.7        DWTI          231.9         196.36        168.2         32.76
.35           110           Rising        Rising        .578          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1482.3        DPK           35.56         30.8          27.5          3.15
.28           103           Rising        Rising        .518          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1390.6        BIS           35.8          31.2          28.09         3.05
.2            88            Rising        Rising        .458          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1132          SCO           135.38        120.31        108.08        13.57
.31           127           Rising        Rising        .582          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1003.5        EFU           45.05         40.63         37.75         3.02
.29           78            Rising        Rising        .498          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
710.7         DTO           130.59        120.81        112.13        8.81
.32           138           Rising        Rising        .582          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
658.3         SDD           41.06         37.96         36.19         2.07
.39           66            Rising        Rising        .321          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
 

Directory= C:\leverage date= 08/24/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
-1109.4       UCO           17.29         19.81         22.12         -2.18
-.29          63            Falling       Falling       .418          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1546.4       UWTI          .74           .91           1.07          -.15
-.22          54            Falling       Falling       .418          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-2295.1       GASL          4.32          5.74          7.23          -.91
-.33          53            Falling       Falling       .394          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
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