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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/21/2015   70+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoft.com/HH/Index.html 

                        8/210/2015
        New Highs: NASD  5          NYSE  0
        New Lows:  NASD  231        NYSE 479
                                                 
            8/21/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks                     
     31 ----> www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-21/MAXCP.html
                                 
                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks
      434  -->  www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/8-21/MINCP.html
                      
         
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     8/21/2015   The Peerless Sell S12* Stands.  The breakdowns below expected
            and flat support below 17000 may also be considered a judged Sell S10.
            The DJI will now test the 15900-16000 support.  The way it knifed down
            below 17000 would certainly make me not want to buy at 16000 very quickly.

            Deflation world-wide lies behind the decline.   Watch these 4 charts
            everyday.  They tell the story.
                    The Four Horsemen of The Deflation Apocalypse 

            The politicians that run the US and Europe have no solution.  The Fed has no solution. 
            Deflation means FEAR is ascendant.  It becomes increasingly difficult in a real
            deflation to spur investment or consumption, except by massive government spending
            on war preparations or Public Works and infrastructure. 

            Without different priorities and government policies, a severe economic slow-down even
            in the US is apt to  follow.  Mark my words: Wall Street's version of capitalism is going to
            be blamed again and again in this new political season.  Already Sanders does this and
            brings huge crowds in.  Trump's big crowds here implicitly blame corporations for not
            showing sufficient patriotism when it comes to jobs and plant locations. And next month,
            the anti-global-capitalist Pope will address Congress, thanks to Republican Catholics.
            Yes, it will probably be a "difficult" Autumn for stocks.  There's no need to hurry
            and buy.

                            The DJI appear to be accelerating down. 
                                  Never try to catch a falling knife.

            The ETFs' Daily volume has risen sharply each of the last three days, as has acceleration
            in prices down. Volume is making 6 month highs by a wide margin. This is a classic
            "RUSH-TO-THE- EXITS" after a price-breakdown below support. It cannot be said
             to be a "selling climax", until the decline has lasted a lot longer.



            The main two hopes for the DJI are that it is now down 10% from its peak 
            (Often in rising markets, a 10%-13.5% correction is followed by a recovery to new highs
            once Peerless gives a new Buy signal) and, second, that Janet Yellen and the Fed will
            provide a "QE-4". 

            The latter hope seems unrealistic.  All the talk from the Fed has been whether to raise rates or not. 
            Some of the Fed Governors even tell us that the markets have it all wrong.  There is no slow-down.

            Not one among them to our knowledge is proposing a new pumping of free money
            into financial institutions, as Bernanke did.  The chief Fed "hawk" St.Louis Fed's Ballard
            argues that the huge jump in Money Supply has taken place without a commensurate
            increase in economic growth and jobs.  He notes that Money Velocity (the rate at which
            it changes hands as things are bought and sold) is at an all-time low.  Hard to argue
            with that.  (But why not try only giving out more money to banks who are willing to "swear"
            that they will loan it only to needy, ready-to-buy-something consumers and US investors
            who are all ready to put up new manufacturing plants in the US and never to bankers
            who will just sit on the money or buy US Treasuries.  Not very likely with this FED!)
                See https://www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president

                                              A 10%-13.5% Correction?



            Tonight, let's look at the evidence that there will be a recovery now that the DJI is down
            between 10% and 13.5%.  Below are the corrections before a Bull market peak and the
            start of a bear market.  There were 16 such corrections between 1928 and 2014 which
            led to a higher peak and then a bear market.  There were 13 such corrections, which
            did not lead to a deeper decline. But in 8 cases, major market tops were made without a
            10%-13.5% decline occurring first as a warning.  In other words, the market just kept falling
            when it reached the 13.5%-down level. 

             From this, we might make the historic odds something like 29 (16 +13) to 8 that
             a significant bottom will be made between 15900 and 16500,  or 78%.

         >  1928-1929 before the September 1929 peak:             3 10% corrections.
         >  April-May 1936  10% correction.  No bear market
         >  1937 before the August 1939 peak                             1 15% correction.                                                                  
         >  1940-1941 before July 1941  peak                             1  16% correction
         >  1946 before July 1946  peak                                       1  10% correction
         >  June-July 1950     10% correction. No bear market
         >  Sept-Oct 1955     10% correction. No bear market
         >  1956 before the July 1957 peak                                  2 10% corrections.  
         >  1959 before the January 1960 peak                            1 9% correction.
         1   No 10% corrections before November 1961 top - instead there was a massive head/shoulders  
         >  1965 before January 1966  peak                                 1  10% correction
         >  1967-1968 before December 1968  peak                   1  12% correction
         2   No 10% corrections before April 1971 top - instead there was a perfect head/shoulders 
         3   No 10% corrections before January 1973 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s.  
         >  July-October 1975  10% correction. No bear market.
         4   No 10% corrections before December 1976 top - At top there were classic S9s and S12s. 
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1978.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Sept-Oct 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              11% decline in Oct-Nov 1979.   No deeper bear market.
              16% decline in Feb-April 1980.   No deeper bear market.
          >  1980 before the April 1981 peak                            1 10% correction.
          5   No 10% corrections before January 1983 top - At top there was an  S12.
          6   No 10% corrections before August 1987 top - At tops there was an  S4, S9 and S12.
          >  1989-1990 before the July1990 peak:                   2  10% corrections.
              11% decline in Feb-April 1994.   No deeper bear market.
              10% decline in May-July 1996.   No deeper bear market.
              13.5% decline in Aug-October 1997.   No deeper bear market.
          7   No 10% corrections before July - October 1998 top - At tops there was an  S12.
               >  1999 before the January 2000 peak                  1  11% correction.  
               9% decline in much of 2004.   No deeper bear market. 
                >  2007 before the October 2007 peak                1  10% correction.  
               13.5% decline in April - July 2010.   No deeper bear market.
           8   No 10% corrections before May - October 2011 top and 18% Decline- At tops there was an  S12.
                                                                   
           ?   No 10% corrections before May - August 2015 top.
                                                                     A 13% decline would take DJI down to 15700.
           
             But just because the historic odds are 78% that a 10%-13.5% decline brings
             a very tradable bottom, that does not mean we should buy yet.  We need to
             see a Peerless Buy signal, some signs of a reversal, an end to the acceleration
             of down volume, and some signs that the free-falls in Crude Oil, Commodities
             foreign ETFs and Chinese stock has ended in some fashion.  We probably
             should also wait to see what the Fed intends to do, if anything.  So, tomorrow,
             while everyone else is panicking or trying to pick a bottom, we might want
             to just watch all the commotion from the sidelines.                                         
 

                                        Too Many Cracks and Contradictions?

                                      
                                          Dams break all at once.  Not gradually.

                                           Earlier Comments Here Still Apply.

                        "The signs of Deflation significantly worsened today as Crude Oil and
                        the Chinese YINN broke (further) below key support.  Somehow, the Fed and
                        Janet Yellen have been maintaining the declines in Oil and Commodities
                        are "transitory".  Will the action today change their opinions or on Open
                        Market Committee votes?  It fact, it may be too late for them to make
                        much of a difference.

                        "The Fed could come out in light of the Chinese and World Market's drop
                        top to new lows along with Oil and Commodities and say that they are rethinking
|                       their plan to raise rates in September.  So far, they have not.  This is is downright
                        scary.   I suspect Professionals may soon have no choice but to start using
                        leveraged short ETFs en masse on the major market indexes.  No one knows
                        how fast this could cause the DJI to decline.  
    
                        "There is still some hope that the FED will change their collective
                        minds.  The Hourly OBV-DISI Line is showing some strength. 
                        But this comes after three months of severe bearish divergences
                        by it from the DJI.   Another minor rally to the DJI's falling 21-day (147-hour) ma.
                        is certainly a possibility.  But the up-day Volume in the broader SP-500
|                       remains too low to be expected to eat up much of its overhead resistance.
                        With the World's markets breaking down, look for more and more
                        lower openings.  At some point, Professionals may no longer try to
                        support the market and instead seek to take advantage of how
                        steep the downtrend in a Deflationary spiral could become using
                        all the wonderful new derivatives and leveraged ETFs they have
                        created for this occasion."

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%



         

 

    
                Most Bullish and Most Bearish 5-day MA Leveraged ETFS

        >Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20
        >Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
        The new Tiger/Peerless programs build these rankings and shows their stocks automatically.
 

Directory= C:\LEVERAGE date= 08/21/15
Bullish have 5-day ma rising fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Rising and IP21>+.20
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
1046.6        TECS          45.22         39.47         36.59         4.69
.26           123           Rising        Rising        .45           bullish
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1001.5        DPK           32.41         29.08         26.94         2.13
.34           102           Rising        Rising        .514          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
788.5         DWTI          199.14        184.78        174           6.6
.32           109           Rising        Rising        .578          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
742.9         REW           58.27         52.94         50.63         4.39
.22           52            Rising        Rising        .41           bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
681.2         BIS           32.75         29.55         27.58         1.9
.26           87            Rising        Rising        .458          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
667.6         EFU           42.03         39.06         37.21         2.03
.44           77            Rising        Rising        .494          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
628.8         SCO           121.81        115.1         109.32        2.89
.27           127           Rising        Rising        .582          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
394.7         DTO           121.78        117.47        113.89        1.7
.27           138           Rising        Rising        .582          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
391.2         UGL           36.11         34.66         33.59         .52
.27           94            Rising        Rising        .462          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
385.7         SDD           38.99         36.99         36.19         1.62
.48           66            Rising        Rising        .317          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
222.1         ULE           17.17         16.58         16.33         .44
.25           100           Rising        Rising        .446          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
197.5         UBT           81.02         79.33         78.7          .43
.35           79            Rising        Rising        .538          bullish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bearish have 5-day ma falling fast, Both Opening and Closing Power Falling and IP21 <-.20
Directory= C:\leverage date= 08/21/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
....................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes   
====================================================================================
-650.7        UCO           19.47         20.73         21.89         -.48
-.26          64            Falling       Falling       .418          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-729.1        ROM           66.53         74.43         78.68         -5.98
-.3           80            Falling       Falling       .51           bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-968          TECL          29.61         34.56         37.21         -3.77
-.25          118           Falling       Falling       .538          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-987          INDL          15.43         17.52         18.48         -1.54
-.29          92            Falling       Falling       .526          vol.fell on down-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1243.8       ERX           29.42         34.92         38.78         -3.37
-.2           84            Falling       Falling       .442          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-1627.8       GASL          5.23          6.32          7.22          -.52
-.31          53            Falling       Falling       .394          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
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