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                  10/1/2015   125+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                  Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                  10/1/2015
        New Highs: NASD  8    NYSE    97 +34
        New Lows:  NASD  7   NYSE    91 +32
                                                 
         10/1/2015 
                          Bullish MAXCP Stocks    over $5               
       28    ---->     www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/10-1-2015/MAXCP.html

                                            Bearish MINCP Stocks over $5   
        319 -->  http://www.tigersoft.com/MAXMIN/10-1-2015/Bearish.html
                          Professionals used today's rally to short more stocks.
         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          10/1/2015             The Sell S14 has not been reversed and the DJI has not yet tested
                                       its closing low of August at 15666.   I think the bears are still in
                                       control; the number of new lows and MINCP stocks are 11 times
                                       the number of new highs and MAXCP stocks.  Today, the DJI could
                                       not manage a follow-through rally.  Still, the short-term trend must be considered
                                       UP.  But, if the DJI fails to get past 16500 and then breaks down
                                       below 16000, it will be completing a bearish Continuation Head and
                                       Shoulders pattern.  That would almost certainly lead to new closing
                                       lows.  While Fridays in bear markets often bring rallies, Mondays
                                       often bring renewed steep declines.

                                             DJI Is Locked in Narrow Trading Range: 16000-16600


                                       I think we should be watching BA and AAPL now.  Both may be forming
                                       their own Continuation Head and Shoulders patterns.  If they break their
                                       price necklines shown below, I would think the DJI will be in serious
                                       trouble.  They do show rising levels of institutional Accumulation, but
                                       Professionals remain net sellers to them and the Public who are also
                                       buying these stocks now. I would trust the Professionals more. (If you
                                       are using Tiger, also look at the Tiger Day Traders' Tool under Indic-3
                                       with these stocks. It is making new lows.  This shows that Day Traders
                                       are aggressively shorting the stocks at their Openings because they
                                       consider the subsequent declines to be much greater than any rally's potential.)

BA - Boeing

AAPL - Apple

                                       Still, there was no sell-off today and the Hourly DJI chart shows the minor
                                       uptrend that the DJI is still alive.  A rally back up to the 2.3% upper band
                                       above the 21-day ma (147-hour) would take the DJI back up to 16600,
                                       where I would expect lots of resistance.  





                                       A number of our charts show Red Buy signals now based on Stochastics.
                                       Most of these have had very good track records for this past year.  So,
                                       I would think Friday will be an up-day,  but Monday could well bring a sell-off,
                                       as investors take the weekend to mull over the risks of owning stocks now
                                       that the averages have broken key support and are below their falling 65-day
                                       and 200-day ma. 

                                       People will be surely remembering the nu,merous big declines in early
                                       and mid October. Since 1966: 1967,  1971, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979,
                                       1980, 1984, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004,
                                       2005, 2007, 2008, 2013 and 2014.  Six of these October sell-offs
                                       took place in the year before the Presidential Election. Are we about to
                                       see the seventh?  The risks of this are too great now to buy, I would judge,
                                       unless you are a very short-term trader and faithfully use the 5-day Stochastics,
                                       5-day ma and Closing Power trends.   

                                       Look at how weak the Tiger Day Traders' Tool is in the ETFS you
                                       follow.  This shows whether there is more upside or downside
                                       potential  after the Opening.  It shows whether Day Traders are
                                       bearish or bullish, along with whether market makers may be rigging
                                       higher openings so that they can go short on what they expect to be
                                       temporary strength.

                                                  Tiger Day Traders' Tool Is bearish on IWM and DIA.

                                                   

                                                                  
 
=====================================================================================                                     
                                                               
                                      The Bearish MINCP Just Stocks Keep Falling.
                             A Study of Our Recent Bearish MINCPs as Short Sales.
                                                   (Work in Progress... 9/30/2015)

                             Here I show the 10 top-listed Bearish MINCPs each night since
                             August 19th, which is just a convienient starting point since
                             all the charts are in tigersoft.com/MAXMIN and easily accessed.

                             The best short sales are often repeated night after night.
                             More results will be posted as soon as time permits.
                             One of the things to do here is study those stocks that went down the
                             most and see what distinguished the early in their moves.  The biggest
                             decliners are shown in red.

                      8/19                         
                      FUEL  6.5  (also 8/20 5.71)   ....  
                       (9/30   4.67  )
                      SBR   28.04
                        (9/30   30.56              )
                      XONE  6.83 (also 8/20 6.19)
                         (9/30    6,71             )
                      ICON  13.06
                          (9/30   13.52              )
                      IDX   18.06  (also 8/21 16.88)
                           (9/30      16.04    )     
                      EMES  16.61  (also 8/21 13.55, 8/25 12.27
                           (9/30        6.77 )
                      WYNN  90.25 (also 8/20 85.58, 8/21 81.77, 8/24 81.77, 8/25 75.71)
                            (9/30         53.12  )
                      FSTR  19.22  (also 8/20 18.75, 8/25 16.65)
                             (9/30     12.28  )
                      YNDX  11.91  (also 8/21 11.01. 8/24 11.01, 8/25/ 10.56)
                             (9/30        10.73  )
                      BPT  42.38  (also 8/20 41.83,  8/21 39.82, 8/24 39.82)
                              (9/30      41.09  )

                      8/20
                      TIVO  9.14  (also 8/25 8.64)
                              (9/30      8.66   )
                      KERX   5.54  (also 8/25 5.61)
                              (9/30      3.52 )
                      TWTR  26.0  (also 8/25 24.38)
                               (9/30      26.94   ) 

                      8/21
                      TTM  24.46  (also 8/24 24.46, 8/25 23.5)
                               (9/30       22.50  )
                      GCC  19.59  (also 8/24 19.59)
                                (9/30       19.47   )
                      YHOO  32.93
                                (9/30       28.91  )
                      POT  25.02   (also  25.02 on 8/24, 8/25 24.0)
                                 (9/30       20.55  )
                      PKX  36.89
                                  (9/30       35.02  )

                      8/24
                      MTR  8.65
                                  (9/30      9.86  )
                      SCTY  40.99
                                   (9/30    42.71 )
                      TFM  19.69
                                 (9/30      22.59  )
                      JGW  5.3
                                  (9/30      4.93   )

                      8/25
                      GLRE  23.77
                                  (9/30     22.28    )
                     
                  
               
 
 

                                                                
 
 
 

 

      ------------------------------------  From Last Night -------------------------------------------                               
                                             The Bearish MINCP Stocks Keep Falling.
                                             Why Cover Our Short Sales in Them?

                                      Peerless history shows that the DJI-30 can be held up for
                                      months even while most stocks languish.  Expect the FED
                                      to find ways to help these stocks, just as they have gone
                                      out of their ways since 2008 to boost the entire stock market.
                                      Their main mission is preventing a big stock market decline.
                                      Helping the DJI stocks now is probably the best they
                                      can do.

                                      This theorem has a corollary.  It means that most of our Bearish
                                      MINCP stocks are likely to continue to fall even if the DJI rallies 5%.
                                      So, hold the MINCP stocks short so long as their Closing
                                      Powers are falling. 

                                                                 IWM Slumps

                                      Should we also continue to hold IWM short? While IWM is very oversold
                                      and should rise tomorrow,  its history since 2001 shows it could
                                      fall another 20% even though it has now declined 8 straight days.  
                                      In 2001, IWM did not bottom until it fell 10 straight days.  In 2002
                                      and 2009, IWM had to fall 11 of 12 days before bottoming.  Admittedly,
                                      in these three cases the DJI was in a bear market.  In the :DJI
                                      "corrections" of 2010 and 2011, an IWM bottom was not reached until
                                      it fell 10 of 11 days and 11 of 12 days, respectively.  Given this
                                      statistic and the "Both Down" situation for IWM, I would bet that
                                      IWM will have to test 104, its September 2014 lows, before it
                                      can make much of a recovery.  I note that the Russell-1000's.  
                                      A/D Line has confirmed the IWM low today and only 13% of its
                                      stocks are above the 65-dma and that trend is declining.  

                                                               

                                                                        


                                                                    SPY Daily Chart  
  
 
       ========================  RECENT STUDIES ======================================

                                       But if we look back to 1929, we see there are many more cases when big market
                                       declines began with such poor breadth numbers than they occurred at the
                                       bottom or even before a big rally. Using a ratio of more than 7 decliners
                                       to advancers would actually have brought good Sell signals in 63% of the
                                       cases when they occurred when the DJI was down more than 11%
                                       and the DJI was either in a correction or starting a bear markets.

                                                     How Well Did A Daily Ratio of More than
                                                         7 NYSE Decliners to Advancers Work as
                                                   A Sell Signal When DJI Declined More Than 10% from Highs?
               
                                                                         Good                   Bad (It was at or near the bottom.)

                                              Oct-Dec 1929        3                         1
                                              Aug-Dec 1937       8                          1
                                              May 1940              1                          1
                                              Aug-Dec 1941       7       
                                              1946                      4                          1
                                              1948-1949            3                          1
                                              June 1950              2
                                              1957                      3                          1
                                              1962                      5                          2
                                              1965                                                  1
                                              1966                      1                          1
                                              1968                                                  1
                                              1969                                                  1
                                              1973                                                  1
                                              1978                      3                          1
                                              1979                      1                          1
                                              1980                      3                          1
                                              1981                      1                          1
                                              1987                      1                          1
                                              1990                                                  1
                                              1997                                                  1
                                               2007-2008           1                           1
                                               2010                                                 4
                                               2011                     2                          2
                                               2015                                                 1
                                               ================================            
                                                      49 successes (63.5%)    28 failures (36.5%)

                                             Most Stocks Are probably Already in Bear Markets

                                       Only 13% of the 6000 stocks we get data for each night are now above their 65-dma. 
                                       There is lots of resistance overhead and Down Volume remains much greater than Up
                                       Volume. In these circumstances, especially at this time of year, it's unlikely that
|                                       the 65-dma will even be reached.   The 21-day ma of unadjusted NYSE Up
                                       Volume minus Down Volume made another new low today.
                                       As long as it is falling, we should not expect the DJI to escape the need
                                       for a full re-testing of its recent lows.  The falling A/D Line sends the same message.


  =========================  Also Previously Here ===============================
                                      
                                       What would we buy?  The number of new lows is too low to encourage us to
                                       expect anything more than modest moves by the Bullish MAXCs.  True, we see
                                       a handful of  Finance stocks among the Bullish MAXCPs.  This is not much leadership.
                                       It is defensive, based on dividends and selective rather than representative of an
                                       industry-wide move. .

                                       If this correction was over, the "natural leaders" upwards would be biotechs,
                                       semiconductors and big banks.  But these groups are still falling.  Down volume
                                       is still very heavy among them and their Closing Powers are falling. 

                                       Too many stocks are starting to look more and more like the weak oil/gas sector
                                       and the very troubled foreign ETFs.  We see this when we plot the Tiger Index of
                                       each of the Groups of stocks we track or simply watch the percentage of each
                                       Group's stocks that are above their 65-dma.  These numbers now show how few
                                       Groups or sectors are holding up and how defensive the market has become.
                                       There is no hurry to buy something now. Bond Funds, Beverages and
                                       Utilities offer only small gains.  Perhaps, after a successful mid-October
                                       test of the lows, this picture will change.  

                                       There is something else to watch.  Profound weakness in the Big Banks was the primary
                                       warning of trouble ahead in 2007.  I think we should now be asking why are big banks
                                       acting much weaker than the general market now.

                                      Pct of Stocks in a
                                      Group above their 65-dma.

                                      60%-70%    Bond Funds
                                      50%-60%    Beverages
                                      40%-50%    Airlines,  Utility.
                                      30%-40%    Education, Gold, Insurance, REITS, Retails
                                      20%-30%    Computers, Green. Hackers,  Home Building, Military, NASD-100, Russell-1000,
                                                          Semi-Conductors,  Software, SP-500, Transportation.
.                                     10%-20%    Autos, Biotechs, China, DJI-30,  Electronics, Finance, Ind. Materials, Regional Banks,
                                       0%-10%     Big Banks, Chemistry, Coal, Foreign ETFs, Gaming, Oil Gas, Pipe Lines, Solar,

                                      
                                                                   

                                     The DJI is doing its job well.  This Blue Chip average very often at the
                                     end of a bull market has the special duty of maintaining the appearance
                                     that all is well with the US stock market and that all dips are therefore
                                     buying opportunities.  This is why the DJI often tops out after the
                                     NYSE A/D Line does, why the number of new lows on the NYSE
                                     and NASDAQ can be greater than the number of new highs even
                                     as the DJI rises, and how institutions are able to get out of big positions
                                     in stocks even as they top out.  Thus Friday, though the DJI rose 113 for
                                     the day, saw 129 more down than up on the NYSE,  Down Volume
                                     was 53 million more than Up Volume and there were 8 times more new lows
                                     than new highs.

                                     One of the most common ways the DJI strengthens the illusion that all
                                     is well, is by having one of its higher priced components jump up
                                     inordinately.  That was true on Friday when NIKE rose +10.21.  This one
                                     stock single-handedly lifted the DJIA by 68.2 points. 

                                                   When Is The Correction Typically Over?

                                     When we look back at the Peerless indicators in the past we can see 
                                     how to judge a correction is over.  The best way is normally to simply wait
                                     for a new Peerless Buy.  No Peerless Buy signal seems likely now
                                     until the DJI retests its lows near 15600-15700.  In addition, we should look
                                     for reversal price patterns, such as a breakout above a precisely formed
                                     flat top (example June 1940), a compact inverted head/shoulders (August 1950
                                     and July 1965) or a falling wedge (Nov. 1971).  The NYSE A/D Line will
                                     often break a well-defined and well-tested downtrend-line. 

                                     But most commonly, and this was a surprise to me when I did the investigating today,
                                     we see the correction ending only when the 21-day ma of Unadjusted
                                     Up Volume minus Down Volume turns up.  If you are using Peerless, see some
                                     examples of this: March 1968,  October 1975, December 1978, November 1979,
                                     October 1997, March 2000, April 2001, September 2007, July 2010 and October 2011.
                                     Conclusion: since the the 21-day ma of Unadjusted Up Volume minus Down Volume is making
                                     new lows now, the correction is probably not over.

                                                       Troublesome Volume Signs in DJI Now.

      


                                                           


                                                        Stay Short IWM
   
                              IWM would need to rise by 4.1 point tomorrow to turn up its
                              5-day ma.  Its red down-day volume has dominated trading. 
                              It needs to more closely test its lows.



                                             
                                                     

 ======================================================================================
                                                            Earlier Studies:
======================================================================================
                              
                                            Bearish Seasonality Study from Tuesday Night....
 

                               It\s hard to be bullish now when we take into account Seasonality.
                               Since 1965, the DJI has fallen 55% of the time this week.  And since 1999,
                               the bearishness usually lasts for the next three weeks.   In this period,
                               we see a regular pattern of DJI declines from Aug-Sept highs to a mid-October
                               low.  We see this pattern below in 11 of the years 16 years since 1999,
                               where the DJI's bottom was not made until 10/10 and 11/26 (Thanksgiving.)

                                           Year   Low Closing                        Peerless Signal
                                           -------------------------------------------------------------------           
                                          1999    10/14   12% below peak      B1, B3 at bottom.
                                          2000    10/18   12% below peak      B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2001    9/21    Bottom after 9/11      B16 at bottom
                                          2002    10/19   19% below Aug peak B1, B16 at bottom.
                                          2003    9/30    4% below Sept peak  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.

                                          2004    10/22  5.5% below Sept peak. B1, B2 at bottom.
                                          2005    10/22  4.5% below Aug peak.  Already on a Buy. No new Buy signal.
                                          2006    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2007    11/26  10% below Sept peak. B3, B14, B18 at bottom.
                                          2008    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.

                                          2009    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2010    10/10  27% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
                                          2011    DJI was advancing steadily in this period.
                                          2012    11/26  8% below Sept peak. B2 at bottom.
                                          2013    10/10  6% below August peak.  B16 at bottom.  
 
                                          2014    10/16  6.5% below August peak.  B1 at bottom.  
 

      TABLE A       When Does A Decline Become Really Dangerous?
     

                             We have seen how the DJI recently did find support at the lowest possible level consistent
                             with it making only a corrective decline.  There were 30 "corrections", each producing
                             a decline of less than 14%.  This was more than two and a half times the number of bear
                             markets that brought a decline of more than 20%.

                             But now look at what happens when there is a DJI decline more than 14.5%.  There
                             were 15 cases where the decline was at least 19%.  These are highlighted
                             in red:   1929, 1937, 1940, 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1973-4,  1977, 1981-2,
                            1987, 1990, 1998, 2000-3, 2007-9.  There were only four declines of 15% and 18%.
                            (1948, 1971, 1980 and 2017) and there were three declines of 19% to 21%:
                            1957, 1980 and 1998.  By contrast, there were 12 bear markets where DJI fell
                            more than 21%.  So, the odds are are almost 4:1 that any DJI decline of more
                            than 14.5% will see the DJI fall more than 19% from its highs.                           
 

               =============== Previous Comments Here ====================    
  
                                                     Trouble Lies Ahead

                           Somehow, it is the DJI and SP-500 which will have to lead ALL other markets higher.  
                           The broader US market remains quite weak. 90% of all stocks are below their 65-dma.
                           Somehow the US now must also lead the world markets out of their Deflationary spiral.
                           This won't be easy.  The  de-Industrialization of America and the 35 year decline
                           in its middle class have gravely weakened Consumer Demand just when Foreign
                           demand is in the tank, too.  This is why we watch the Four Horses of the Deflation
                           Apocalypse.  Many overseas markets are in a steep declines, as are Commodities,
                           Oil/Gas and the Chinese market.

                           Friday watch the Jobs numbers closely.  It's true that +200,00 new Jobs have
                           been added in each of the last 3 months,  but it is also true that the recent June and July
                           numbers do show a deterioration both from a year ago and from the previous month. 
                           I think we have to get past simply relying on the standard media's write-ups of
                           these numbers.

         NEW NON-FARM EMPLOYEES IN US
                   8/8/2015  (in 1000s)

                         
                           I consider Peerless not to be offering a current reversing Buy or Sell now.  This
                           is highly unusual, but so is the market.  The nearly 1000 point advance
                           in only two days did not even take the DJI above its falling 65-day ma.
                           This gives the appearance of a DJI only making a bear market rally up to
                           resistance last week.  In the next Peerless update (expected to be released
                           on Friday), the characteristics mentioned above will give an automatic Sell S14.
                           In an on-going bear market the S14 would call for selling and selling short.
                           But currently we are not officially in a bear market. A DJI decline of more
                           than 18% from its high is the standard used by Peerless). As such the Sell S14
                           is only a "take profits" signal;.  In fact, the DJI has still not fallen more than
                           14% from its highs so far. You will recall that I have shown here recently that
                           since 1928 77% of the numerous DJI declines of 10% to 13.5% were
                           "corrections" in an on-going bull market and soon brought  recoveries back
                           to their old highs, at least. . So, the new Sell S14 in our market environment
                           only says what I have already said here, namely to mostly go to cash
                           unless you are a very short-trader and can watch the Hourly DJI during the
                           day and want to play the typical recovery that should develop between
                           15700-16000 and sell when the Hourly DJI's uptrend is violated or the
                           DJI again reaches 16700.
  

        
                                 ===============================================
                                                                                   Additional Notes 
                                 ===============================================

                                            Temporary Sharp Declines
                                         and Extreme Artificial Sell-Offs.

                        Looking at the Peerless charts for 1987, 1997, 2011 and 2010
                        show us that the odds favor a retest of the 16000.  Only the 1997
                        case would suggest that there will only  be a shallow one- or two-day
                        retreat. 
 
         1987 Crash (Caused by Reckless Computerized Trading in Index Options.)


 
                                                        1997 Parallel: 
             Only two very shallow retreats here before old high was challenged,



                                                  2010 Flash Crash
 

                      2011 Republican Shut-Down of Federal Government
                                 (Boehner says that this will not occur in 2015.)


 

                        From Wednesday night:

                                 Other Sharp DJI Declines to The 13.5%-Down Level

                        When one studies other DJI recoveries in the past after sharp declines
                        to the 13.5%-14% support- level below the bull market peak, we see that
                        the falling 21-day ma does act as resistance for a week before prices
                        penetrate it and resume their rally.  See the study here.
                              ../../MAXMIN/8-28-2015/big_declines_and_the_importance.htm

                        Look especially at the charts of 1941 (months before Pearl Harbor),
                        1950 (a month after North Korea invaded South Korea) and
                        in 1997.  Especially note the 1997 Panic.  It occurred because of a panic
                        in Asia with the DJI up very considerably over the prior 6 years. 
                        Computerized trading then also drove the decline down excessively.
                        Wikopedia writes:

                                "The October 27, 1997, mini-crash is the name of a global stock market crash
                                that was caused by an economic crisis in Asia. The point loss that the
                                Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered on this day still ranks as the eighth biggest
                                point loss and 15th biggest percentage loss since its creation in 1896. This crash is
                                considered a "mini-crash" because the percentage loss was relatively small compared
                                to some other notable crashes. But after the crash, the markets still remained positive
                                for 1997. "      (See October 27, 1997, mini-crash - Wikipedia)


        

            
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