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Tiger Software  858-273-5900   PO Box 22784   San Diego, CA 92192 Email william_schmidt@hotmail.com  
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Announcements -

           Tiger/Peerless UPDATE.   A new TigerSoft/Peerless update has been released today.
               The new Tiger's update has the new Sell S12.  It has the 
               new QuickSilver table which is produced for any directory's stocks.
               It should work well with the stocks in FASTUP, FASTDOWN, LEVERAGE, HIGHIP21,
               MAXCP, MINCP, REDSELL and NEAR65. With this QuickSilver
               table displayed, you point the mouse at the symbol and click Graph.
               The Peercomm will also allow you to get stock data again from Dial Data. 

                 
                                    8/18/2015   200+ TigerSoft Charts - 
                            Go to www.tigersoftware.com/HH/index.html 

                        8/18/2015
        New Highs: NASD  22      NYSE 41
        New Lows:  NASD  56      NYSE 85
                                                 
            8/18/2015  Bullish MAXCP Stocks
     107 ---->www.tigersoftware.com/MAXMIN/maxmin/8-18/Rbullish.htm

                                 Bearish MINCP Stocks
      97--> http://www.tigersoftware.com/MAXMIN/maxmin/8-18/Rbearish.html
         
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     8/18/2015   Peerless remains on Red Sell 12*s.    The NYSE A/D Line
                        is still falling but the Hourly OBV-DISI Line is in a short-term
                        uptrend.  Watch for a break in the Hourly DJI uptrend.  



                        The upside looks quite limited as long as the FED stays on course
                        to raise rates in September.  Though NY Professionals keep
                        pumping the US market up, it will be hard-pressed to keep rising
                        with so much weakness overseas.  In 1929 and 1937, the Fed
                        seriously underestimated the dangers of Deflation and, instead,
                        focused on curbing excessive stock speculation. 





                        The weak openings are being brought on by the troubles in the Chinese,
                        the Overseas and the Oil markets.





                        So far, the down-openings have recently  been repaired by Professional
                        buying in New York.  We see all this  in the breakdown of the green
                        Opening Power (on SPY for example) and the recent rise in the blue Closing Power. 

                        A rising Closing Power and a falling Opening Power, like we see now, would be
                        bullish if  a bear market was ending.  But, with the DJI now working on its 77th month
                        in the current bull market,  I would bet that overseas Deflation could tip
                        the scales here and start a sharp correction if the Fed raises rates.  So,
                        unless all the last few trading days' notable Professional buying represents
                        knowledge either that the Fed will not be raising rates or knowledge that
                        US business conditions are about to be significantly boosted by something else,
                        I would give the Sell S12* more chance to play out.
.  
                        While it's true that the Closing Power downtrends have been broken,
                        SPY's Daily OBV is now lagging by such a wide margin, I doubt if it will be able
                        to get past its 65-day ma, where it is now stalled, without another test of
                        of its trading range's support.  



                            The Advance Has Narrowed to The Point Where
                            Most of The Continuing Industry Strength is Defensive.

                        This is a market in which 75% of all stocks are now below their 65-dma.
                        Twice as many groups have a majority of their stocks below their
                        65-day mvg.avgs, as have a majority above their 65-dma.  This narrowness
                        in the market suggests there may be serious liquidity problems if
                        rates are raised and even the defensive stocks start to be quickly unloaded.
                        And there's more.  September's bearish seasonality.  As college tuitions go
                        up and up, September's seasonal selling seems more and more something
                        we should expect and be concerned about..

                        Of course, the strong Dollar and weakening overseas economies are making
                        bankers and wealthy investors happy here for now.  The leading US stocks
                        have become very appealing to Hot Money from overseas.

                        Their buying is mostly in stocks and bonds that benefit from the strong Dollar
|                       and pay safe dividends.  This helps explain the defensiveness of the market
                        now.   The strongest groups now, REITs, Bonds and Utilities, of course,
                        all pay dividends.   Assured earnings rather than possible future
                        growth is favored. 

                        So, this is a very selective and a defensive market.  Risk-avoidance
                        is necessary.  The upside potential looks very limited with most stocks.
                        Watch the Closing Power up-trends in your long positions.  If Professionals
                        start selling, there is too much danger of a serious decline. Use the
                        5-day ma trends with leveraged ETFs.  Meanwhile,  most of our shorts
                        in bearish MINCP stocks keep declining, as do OIL, GAS, YINN, most
                        Commodities and many Emerging Countries' stocks.
                                   
          
                                                   Finding Short-Term Trades
                                      among The Weakest Plungers
                                     Using Tiger's "FASTDOWN" Group
                                and the new Tiger QuickSilver Program

                          QuickSilver lets you quickly find the stocks in fast-falling
                                5-day down-trends.  When the 5-day ma is rising at an annualized
                                rate of less than -250%, the Downtrend is most likely to continue. 

                                The odds in favor of a downtrend-resumption from the falling
                                5-day ma are greatest when Both the Openingand Closing Power
                                are FALLING and the current Accumulation Index is below -.20.
                                Look also at the charts where these conditions are true to see how
                                close the stock is to price support, resistance, or a breakdown.

                                What's also nice about QuickSilver is that it also gives the
                                pivot-points below which a closing the next day will turn down
                                the 5-dma.  Below are the top stocks examined this way.

                                Of course, the trick here is not to chase them too far above
                                their 5-day ma and to try to buy them on successful tests of the
                                5-day ma.  To narrow the search down further, very high IP21s
                                and AI/200 scores should usually be favored.  Also try to
                                pick stocks whose prices rise on rising, not falling, volume.  And,
                                of course, look at their charts.  These will also show you
                                the stocks' names.  Some industry groups will be
                                over-represented here; these should be favored. 

                                QuickSilver's most bearish picks are:
                                   CENX, SGY, BTE and ANFY.

C:\FASTDOWN - 08/18/15
                       BOTH DOWNs
                       IP21<-.20
                       Bearish Daily Volume.
                       RED shows AI/200 under 65.

5-DMA ROC     Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
..............................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up        Daily Vol. notes
============================================================================================== 

C:\fastdown - 08/18/15
5DAROC        Symbol        Last          5-dma         Pivot         Change        
..............................................................................................
IP21          AI/200        OP-PWR        CP-PWR        PCT-Up   Daily Vol. notes
==============================================================================================

-509.7        BAP           115.49        118.97        124.48        .59
-.36          81            Falling       Falling       .466          vol.fell on up-day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-661.9        DTLK          5.75          6.18          6.55          -.32
-.21          93            Falling       Falling       .43           bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-664          DL            11.5          12.61         12.9          -1.38
-.35          85            Falling       Falling       .47           bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-757.6        HLX           6.79          7.23          7.69          -.34
-.25          75            Falling       Falling       .438          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-771.8        FRAN          10.31         11.36         12.05         -.96
-.22          100           Falling       Falling       .466          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-785.4        CENX          5.32          5.86          6.22          -.5
-.15          60            Falling       Falling       .442          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-832.8        SGY           5.03          5.46          6.11          -.11
-.21          50            Falling       Falling       .422          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-864.9        TGH           16.52         17.75         19.21         -.65
-.35          104           Falling       Falling       .454          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-897.8        ANW           9.22          11.01         11.47         -2.03
.05           145           Falling       ?             .478          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-976          AAU           .6            .64           .68           .01
-.05          148           Falling       Falling       .365          vol.fell on up-day
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  - 
-1136.7       SPP           5.81          6.76          7.41          -.47
-.54          147           Falling       Falling       .382          bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
-1208         BTE           6.47          7.01          8.09          .07
-.29          60            Falling       Falling       .438          vol.fell on up-day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-1284.7       FELP          6.13          6.9           7.62          -.54
-.23          125           Falling       Falling       .41           bearish
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
-1546         CJES          5.63          6.55          7.4           -.63
-.26          79            Falling       Falling       .442          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-1624.3       AKBA          6.89          7.34          7.99          -.31
-.26          88            Falling       Falling       .454          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
-2670.8       ANFI          5.22          7.79          9.56          -2.34
-.55          54            Falling       Falling       .498          bearish
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

 
                                                 Bearish Seasonality

                        Though the third year in the 4-year Presidential Cycle is normally quite
                        bullish, the median decline at some point from the DJI's peak to a
                        September or October bottom is 10% since 1945.  So far,
                        the DJI has only fallen 4% from its July peak.

                                  DJI's Declines in 3rd-4th Quarters of
                                         Third Year of Pres. Election

            1947  7/24//1947 6% decline to 7/1947
            1951  9/13/1951 7% decline to 11/8/1951
            1955  9/23/1955 10% decline to 10/10/1955
            1959  8/3/1959 9% decline  to 9/29/1959
            1963  10/23/1963 10% decline to 11/22/1963

            1967  9/25/1967 10% decline to 11/14/1967
            1971  9/7/1971 13.5% decline to 11/23/1971
            1975  9/8/1975 7% decline to 10/1/1975
            1979  10/5/1979 11.5% decline to 11/7/1979
            1983  7/26/1983 6% decline to 8/5/1983

            1987  8/25/1987 36.5% decline to 10/19/1987
            1991  8/7/1991 5% decline to 10/7/1991 
            1995  no declines
            1999  8/25/1999 11% decline to 10/18/1999 

            2003  9/18/2003 4% decline to 9/28/2003
            2007  7/19/2007 10% decline to 8/16/2007
                  10/19/2007 10% decline to 11/26/2007
            2011  7/21/2011 16% decline to 10/3/2011
            2015  7/16/2015 4% decline so far...
 
                          median decline = 10%

                                    

 
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