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    7/9/2014        Most Professionals are still fighting the Fed and the Chinese Government.
                          But be careful.  The pattern of wildly higher openings could occur next
                          week, too, if Chinese stocks yo-yo back up or there is a bailout
                          agreement for Greece.

                          I would add to Bearish MINCP shorts on a rally to 17800 or on a close below 17500.
                          There are not enough Bullish MAXCP stocks to do much buying yet.
                          The operative Peerless S12 must stand for now, at least until the
                          A/D Line breaks its downtrend or we get a new Peerless Buy signal.
                          
                          See below the falling Closing Power of DIA.  Also see SPY, QQQ, IWM,
                          IBB, TECL, SOXL on http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/   See also
                          how  the Hourly DJI's DISI/OBV Line made a new low ahead of prices today
                          and how red and negatively down-trending is the Tiger Accumulation
                          Index on the DJI.  These all warn that any DJI rally back to 17800 to try to
                          close the gap down from there will face very still resistance and may be shorted
                          to probable advantage by nimble traders. 

                          Another thing: watch AAPL carefully tomorrow and Monday.  It has broken key
                          support and now must hold up at its rising 200-day ma.  If it does not hold up,
                          this will be a very bearish message to growth stock and blue-chip stock traders, alike.
                          US stocks might then decline even if Chinese stocks rally. The DJI is only down 4.5%
                          from its highs.  A bigger correction eould not come as a surprise.                      .

Opening Power (not shown in chart below) keeps rising.  It represents                  overseas and Public net buying. Meanwhile, the blue Closing Power keeps falling.                   The US is considered a haven to foreigners from overseas financial risks, US                  Professionals are heavy net sellers into all rallies.  Will they change their mind?                  They have not yet.

The World's Biggest Stock - AAPL -                                     has just broken down below important support                                     and had its 65-dma turn down, all following                                     steady net selling by Professionals.

                          After the early rally tomorrow, yet another test of 17500 seems likely.
                          If the test of 17500 is successful, it will build new confidence into
                          the market.  Then a more lasting reversal and a Summer Rally would become
                          more likely.  Remember your physics and your Keynes.  Speculative bull markets
                          have lots of mass and momentum.  They can defy gravity a lot longer
                          than most stubborn shorts can stay solvent. 

                          Consider the super-bear in June1929.  The internals of the DJI looked absolutely dreadful,
                          much weaker than now, and yet prices rose 25% higher by September,
                          and that was with the economy's growth having peaked, the Fed voicing concern
                          about excessive speculation and even raising the Discount Rate from 5% to 6%
                          in August 1929.




                          So, be careful about fighting the short-term market trend (and all these higher
                          openings, as encouraged by the FED and the Chinese Government.  If they want
                          to support or even push up the market, they have ample power to do that.  I say this
                          having studied a lot of market history.  This is a variation on the "Don't fight the Fed" rule.
                          But "lookout!" when the Fed or the Chinese Government  stop supporting the market
                          or they do it too weakly to hold up prices.

                          I am comfortable holding short some of our Bearish MINCPs and holding
                          long some recent Bullish MAXCPs, as long as they do not break below their
                          65-dma by much with a negative IP21.  This weekend I will work on a new
                          Flagging program to show all ETFs (and stocks) each night that are rising or falling with
                          particularly steep 5-day moving averages and have pulled back to these averages,
                          where traders may want to play a resumption of trends when other
                          internals are either very strong or very weak. More on Sunday night about this.
                          Another idea, one that worked at the end of the speculative bull market in
                          1999-2000: aggressive traders may want to buy volatile stocks at the close
                          and sell them at the openings.  More on this Sunday, too. 

 
                          Last night I wrote: "we should not fight the Fed in this.  I would plan to
                          close out the DIA short if there is another DJI decline below 17600.
                          Another test of the lows may occur when this rally is over.  The Chinese
                          debacle is not over.  Deflation is real.  And the DJI still shows steady red
                          Distribution." 

                                                     
                                 More and More Stocks Have
                    Over Head Resistance at Their 65-dma


                   Index/Sector        Pct.of Stocks
                                              above 65-dma.
                                            today .... yesterday  
                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   DJI-30             16.7%         13.3%     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTDOWJ.GIF
                                         oversold
                   SP-500            28.3%         26.7%     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP50.GIF         
                   QQQ               27.6%         28.6%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTNASD.GIF
                   Russell-1000    30.1%         28.9%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTRUS-.GIF
                   OEX                28.6%         28,7%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP-1.GIF
                   All Stocks        27.7%         26.5%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DATA65.GIF

The DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM and IBB show similar patterns in that they have            falling Closing Powers and 5-dma, but their Opening Powers are all rising.             Usually this is a bearish juxtaposition until the Closing Power downtrends are violated            and the stocks close back above their 5-day ma pivot-points          ----------------------------------------------------------------                                              DIA       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DIA.GIF                      SPY      http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/SPY.GIF                    QQQ    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/QQQ.GIF                   IWM     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IWM.GIF                   IBB       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IBB.GIF                   The most bearish Bearish Big ETFS show "Both Down" condition (opening and closing                   power falling) and a falling 5-dma.  They should be shorted on rallies back to their                   falling 5-dma.  We need a short-term ranking program that among other things,                   will rank stocks for the annualized rate of change of their 5-day ma.  This is currently                   calculated and shown on the QuickSilver 6-month charts (obtainable using Operations                  + Six-Month charts after showing the yearly chart of a stock or ETF.)                   OIH       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/OIH.GIF                           KOL     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/KOL.GIF                                              YINN - a leveraged bet on Chinese stocks                                        is on a wild roller-coaster ride.  If you trade it,                                        good-luck.  You will need it.

7/8/2015   150+ TigerSoft Charts                                     Go to http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/ to see them. New Highs: NASD  18 +11   NYSE  9 +8   New Lows:  NASD  46 -56    NYSE  63 -2                                                     16  -6     Bullish MAXCPs  http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-8/bullish.htm                                                  307 +87   Bearish MINCPs -  http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-8/bearish.htm                  The great plurality of Bearish MINCPs over Bullish MAXCPs                  warns that Professionals are still bearish many more stocks                  than they are  bullish.  There is little point in trying to pick a                  winner on the long side now.