TigerSoft and Peerless Daily
Hotline
(C) 1985-2015 William Schmidt,
Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
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strictly reserved.
Tiger Software
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7/8/2014
The NYSE found a new way to stop for three hours the urgent
mid-day panic selling today and prevent the DJI from messily breaking
the 17500 support in sympathy with the Chinese plunge. The "glitch"
conveniently kept professional market makers from having to load up on
too many shares when the DJI broke 17500, as it was aiming to do,
just before trading was artificially stopped because of the so-called
computer "glitch". No doubt Exchange officials used the time to talk
productively with the Fed and probably Chinese officials, too. Today
the Futures are up +100. By my thinking, the trading delay allowed an
organized plan for bulls to be developed which would raise prices,
probably with the FED's backing and help. (Was there really a computer
failure?
Maybe not. Perhaps, it was heaven-sent. We all know that Wall Street does
"God's Work".)
In any case, we should not fight the Fed in this.
I would plan to
close out the DIA short if there is another DJI decline below 17600.
Another test of the lows may occur when this rally is over. The Chinese
debacle is not over. Deflation is real. And the DJI still shows
steady red
Distribution. But I would also add that the
Hourly DISI Line did not confirm
its low made today. That is bullish. The DJI chart's key values also
show a positive OBVPct ("OP=.019"). I take this to mean that the selling
pressure
is now probably not great enough to break the DJI down below 17500.
Possibly, the heavy selling pressure in overseas markets will not impact the
the US for a while. A new bailout of Greece has a good chance and it may
take
a few months for US corporations to see the effects of the 40% sell-off in
Chinese stocks, if prices there can not be stabilized simply by having the
Government ban big investors' sell orders and lock up trading in hundreds of
other Chinese stocks for now.
Take Some Short Sale Profits.
Most of the short sales among the Bearish MINCP stocks have fallen nicely.
Take some profits, especially if their Closing Power's hook back up and
break their steep downtrends. There are not yet many bullish MAXCP stocks
with compelling technicals. Traders will want to be on the alert for
stocks or ETFs
(like Blue or IWM) whose Closing Powers break their CP downtrends after
showing a recent bulge of Accumulation. So, the close tomorrow will be
important
to watch.
Bank stocks like MA, JPM and GS should give us a good idea of how much the FED
may do to shore up the market. MasterCard and Goldman could still complete
bearish head/shoulders. JP Morgan has completed such a pattern but needs
to
decline further to make that pattern's bearishness look convincing.
All in all, it's probably a good time to wait and see
if the market can stage a
convincing reversal tomorrow, one where the NYSE advancers out-number decliners
by 3.5 or 4+ to 1 and bring us a new Peerless Buy signal.
See
www.tigersoftware.com/PeerlessStudies/2-day-Up-Reversals/index.htm
If there is no such powerful reversal
tomorrow, then the 17800 resistance on
the DJI will probably bring another reversal downward and there will be
another re-test of 17500. The A/D Line for the 30-DJI stocks is falling
at a rate that cannot easily be reversed in only one or even two days.
More and More Stocks Have
Over Head Resistance at Their 65-dma
Index/Sector Pct.of Stocks
above 65-dma.
today .... yesterday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJI-30
13.3%
23.3%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTDOWJ.GIF
oversold
SP-500 26.7% 38.4% http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP50.GIF
QQQ 28.6% 36.7%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTNASD.GIF
Russell-1000 28.9% 37.0%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTRUS-.GIF
OEX
28.6% 33.7%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP-1.GIF
All Stocks
28.9% 32.6%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DATA65.GIF
The DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM and IBB show similar patterns in that they have falling Closing Powers and 5-dma, but their Opening Powers are all rising. usually this is a bearish juxtaposition until the Closing Power downtrends are violated and the stocks close back above their 5-day ma pivot-points ---------------------------------------------------------------- 7/8 Close 5-day ma 5-dma Annualized IP21 Pivot Point Rate of Change ----------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 175 177.4 -23.5% -.149 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DIA.GIF SPY 204.53 203.5 -31.4% -.072 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/SPY.GIF QQQ 106.09 107.92 -44.6% -.042 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/QQQ.GIF IWM 121.99 125.23 -116.3% +.115 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IWM.GIF IBB 362.78 369.9 -83.6% +.153 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IBB.GIF The most bearish Bearish Big ETFS show "Both Down" condition (opening and closing power falling) and a falling 5-dma. They should be shorted on rallies back to their falling 5-dma. In this market, they have shown no ability to rally. We need a short-term ranking program that among other things, will rank stocks for the annualized rate of change of their 5-day ma. This is currently calculated and shown on the QuickSilver 6-month charts (obtainable using Operation + Six-Month charts after showing the yearly chart of a stock or ETF. OIH 32.78 33.71 -314.8% -.157 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/OIH.GIF KOL 10.17 11.23 -541% -.445 http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/KOL.GIF
|
7/8/2015 150+ TigerSoft Charts Go to http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/ to see them. New Highs: NASD 7 -17 NYSE 1 -26 New Lows: NASD 102 +31 NYSE 135 +72 22 -16 Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-8/bullish.htm 220 +94 Bearish MINCPs - http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-8/bearish.htm The great plurality of Bearish MINCPs over Bullish MAXCPs warns that Professionals are still bearish many more stocks than they are bullish. There is little point in trying to pick a winner on the long side now. |
History of New Extended
Red Sell S12s 1929 June - bad Sell: failure after price breakout (late Summer rally) 3.4% loss - reversed 6 days later by Buy B4. Note DJI was essentially unchanged from what it was 65-days before and showed an OBVPct of +.156. This signal was redundant, as there already was a regular Sell S12. 1929 September 5- perfect Sell just before Crash! BIG DECLINE +43.3% gain LA/MA = 1.013 PI=-26 IP21= -.109 VI= -454 OBVPct = .112 DJI was up 19% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was redundant, as there already were a variety of Peerless Sells. 1932 November 7 - premature Sell 64.6 ---> 68.0 ---> 55.9 BIG DECLINE +9.0% gain LA/MA = 1.046 PI=-41 IP21= -.079 VI= -156 OBVPct = - .069 DJI was up 8.3% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was not as good as the perfect Sell S2 right at top. 1936 April 2 - perfect Sell BIG DECLINE +6.7% gain LA/MA = 1.026 PI=-27 IP21= -.089 VI= -231 OBVPct = + .198 DJI was up 11.3% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was redundant, as there already were a variety of Peerless Sells. 1936 October 7 - bad Sell. but A/D Line was weak until end of 1936 and this was right after a perfectly flat-topped breakout. LA/MA = 1.034 PI=-14 IP21= -.051 VI= -105 OBVPct = + .253 (too high?) DJI was up 12.2% above its level of 65-days before. 1959 December 31 - perfect Sell BIG DECLINE 1963 December 4 - bad Sell. Early December is not usually a good time to sell short. LA/MA = 1.015 PI=-58 IP21= -.066 VI= -577 OBVPct = + .028 DJI was up 4.0% above its level of 65-days before. 1964 June 19 -bad Sell. - 823 ---> 851 ---> 833 and then up strongly. The loss here would have been small using Peerless. It would have been 2.5% based on Peerless Buy B10 on 6/17/2015 LA/MA = 1.011 PI=-11 IP21= -.108 VI= -317 OBVPct = - .006 DJI was only up 0.8% above its level of 65-days before. 1965 April 12 - premature Sell - 906 ---> 939.6 ---> 840 1967 April 18 - premature Sell - 873 ---> 909 ---> 847 1972 August 2 - premature Sell - 944 ---> 970.35 ---> 921.66 1998 June 29 - premature Sell - 8997.36 ---> 9337.97 ---> 7539.07 BIG DECLINE 2000 August 7 - premature Sell - 10867 ---> 11311 ---> 7539 BIG DECLINE 2012 December 5 - premature Sell - 13034 ---> 13351 ---> 12938 2015 May 19 - LA/MA = 1.013 PI= 13 IP21= -.008 VI= -48 OBVPct = .115 DJI was up 1.5% above its level from 65-days before. |
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1
The On-Line Explosive Stocks
2
The On-Line Killer Short
Sales book
Purchase each all new book by CC for
$42.50 or send a check for $37.50 to me.
I call your
attention now to the many new concepts and
the considerable new research in them:
For example:
1) A very good New Tiger Buy B12 for Low
Priced Stocks
2) After Red high volume reversal days use CP
uptrend-breaks.
3) Buy the stocks the Federal Govt wants you
to buy.
4) 100-Day Power Rankings...
5) Using Closing Power Hooks after Buy B26s
and B20s.
6) How A Stock Reacts to Its Earnings Report
Is Very important.
7) TigerSoft Major Buy Signals' Combinations
Which are most Powerful? Reliable?
8) Augmented Buy B20s' Independent Success
Rate.
9) What factors warn a rising 65-dma will not
hold?
10) The classic cluster of technical
characteristics that commonly appear
in the 23 stocks falling 70% or more in
the deep pullback of 2011.
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PEERLESS STOCK MARKET TIMING:
A Guide To
Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Peerless Signals: 1915-2014
New Peerless Signals and DJI Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965
1965-6 1966
1966-7 1967
1967-8 1968
1968-9 1969
1969-70
1970
1970-1
1971
1971-2 1972
1972-3
1973 1973-4
1974
1974-5 1975
1975-6
1976 1976-7
1977
1977-1978
1978
1978-79
1979 1979-80
1980 1980-1
1981 1981-2
1982 1982-1983
1983 1983-1984
1984
1984-1985
1985
1985-1986
1986 1986-1987
1987 1987-8
1988
1988-9 1989
1989-90
1990
1990-1 1991
1991-2 1992
1992-3 1993
1993-4 1994
1994-5 1995
1995-1996
1996
1996-7 1997
1997-8 1998
1998-1999 1999
1999-2000 2000
2000-1
2001 2001-2
2002
2002-3 2003
2003-4 2004
2004-5
2005 2005-6
2006 2006-7
2007 2007-8
2008 2008-9
2009
2009-10
2010 2010-11
2011 2011-12
2012
2012-2013
2013 2013-4 2014
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types
of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
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TIGERSOFT SIGNALS AND INDICATORS:
Documentation for TigerSoft
Automatic and Optimized Signals.
SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma,
Optimized Signals.
"The
Jig Is Up": Calling September and October Tops.
A Keynesian's Warning Signs.
NUGT since 2012: A study of Tiger Technicals
Tiger Day
Traders Tool and most active Triple Leveraged ETFs
Advisory Pink Closing Power S7s at ETF at top since 1994
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 QQQ
SPY
DIA
2002
2007
2008
SPY 2011
2013-2014
Tiger Buy and Sell
Signals: New 2014 Research:
These are randomly chosen
groups.
but clearly we need to back-test them in more years.
You can replicate or do similar studies yourself
for other signals and/or other years.
9/1/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B19s - Steady rallying and no pullbacks below the 21-day ma.
9/2/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B17s on 14As taken alphabetically
9/3/2014 -
2014 Tiger B17s on 60
Biotechs taken alphabetically
9/4/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B18s on all "R" stocks taken alphabetically
* 9/8/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B20s - Conclusion: Use Closing Power trendbreaks in aftermath.
9/8/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B16s - Conclusion: Use mostly when
LA/MA under 1.05.
9/11/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B15s - Conclusion: Certain conditions
improved the results dramatically.
9/12/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B25s - Conclusion: 87.5% success rate
when other internals are positive.
9/15/2014 -
2014 Tiger B25s -
Best conditions for using B25s with somewhat
higher RSX capitalization stocks.
9/16/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal in 2014: 14s, QQQ, DJI-30 and ETFs
9/17/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2009A-s
9/18/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2010A-s
9/21/2014 -
New Tiger
Augmented Sell S8s: DJI-30 - 2014
Requiring S8s to show
Negative CP%-Pr and IP21<+.15 produced a 70% success rate
in a rising market for
DJI-30 stocks and big ETFs.
9/24/2014 -
Tiger Sell
S14s: They make price breakdowns very bearish.
1/15/2015
-
Tiger Day
Traders' Tool Explained.
http://www.tigersoft.com/day-traders/index.html
http://www.tigersoft.com/Indicators/index.htm
http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/Aug-31-2009/index.html
NEW
2/16/2015
1) New -
Tiger Charts showing UP%, Opening-Up%, Closing-Up%
Note differences between bullish
and bearish stocks...
2) New -
UP%,
Opening-Up%, Closing-Up% Rankings of any directory.
3) New -
Display of what happens to a stock after various size openings up or down.
4) New -
6-month charts to better
show volume changes and 5-day ma with bands.
More profitable trading schemes coming...
Targeted Trading Opportunities:The Profits Quickly Add Up,
3/29/2015
Tiger CandleSticks:
IBB: 2001-2015
and
Recent Others.
====================================================================================
Earlier Hotlines
2-7-2014 to 3/19/2014
11-22-2014 to 2-6-2014
http://tigersoftware.com/555HL555/index.htm
10/9/2014 - 11/21/2014
http://tigersoftware.com/9933Hot/
9/2/2014 - 10/8/2014-
http://tigersoftware.com/2233HL/index.html
6/25/2013-9/1/2014
http://tigersoftware.com/112211-H/index.htm
11/22/2013-3/20/2014
http://tigersoft.com/1111-HL/index.html
10/22/2013-11/21/2013
Past
Hotline Predictions
http://tigersoft.com/-HL42013/index.html
http://www.tigersoft.com/-2GBL13HL/index.htm
==============================================================================================================================