TigerSoft and Peerless Daily
Hotline
(C) 1985-2015 William Schmidt,
Ph.D. www.tigersoft.com
All rights
strictly reserved.
Tiger Software
858-273-5900 PO Box 22784 San Diego, CA 92192 Email
william_schmidt@hotmail.com
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7/2/2014
Greeks vote "NO" to Extreme Austerity.
A complete Greek financial melt-down is apparently
what the markets have been warning us of. This helps
explains all the bearish Red distribution, the Hourly
DJI's plunging OBV Line and the falling Closing Powers
and red Candle-Sticks.
But now we also have to worry about a Chinese
stock market melt-down. The big Head/shoulders
there is reminiscent of the head/shoulders in
the November 2007 Chinese market top.
(Google "Tigersoft" and "Chinese market top"
"November 27 2007" and you will see history repeating.)
This Could Be Bad...
I looked back at the level and amount of Red Distribution
in the DJI when the Stochastic-21-K-Line first turns
up. One June 30th when the K-Line turned up IP21
(current Accumulation) for the DJI stook was a lowly
-.289. There were no other cases since 1966 when the
IP21 was this low as the market seemingly tried to make
its first stand and have the Stochastic-21-K-Line turn
upwards. In fact, you have to go back to the tops of 1937,
1940 and 1941 to even find IP21 readings below -.210
in this circumstance in what still seemed like a bull market.
.
This suggests to me that the recent rally attempt has
utterly failed and the DJI's support at 17500 will be sliced
right through. Compare just below the 2011 chart with the 1937
chart. I have posted red arrows where the Stochastic-21
K-Line has turned up from below 5, thereby showing the
first attempted rally as the markets started to collapse.
1937 |
2015 |
What Will The Fed Do Now?
Some very big investors and hedge funds in America
expected yet another Greek bailout. They will be hit very
hard if the European Central Bankers keep telling
Greece to "drop dead", as some of the biggest bankers
did this weekend.
See
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/29/panicked-hedge-funds-now-praying-for-a-miracle-in-greece/
and my "Uncharted Territory" below.
Internals Remain Quite Weak despite the DJI's
Relief Rally
After
a long, artificial 76-month bull market, the appearance
of head and shoulders
patterns in the DJI and SP-500 also take
on much more significance. So does
the pronounced and
steady
pattern of selling
by Professionals to the Public and
to overseas' buyers. Always keep in mind that the TigerSoft SPY
candle-stickchart below
shows Professional net buying/selling
while the Blue Line below and Public net buying/selling as the Red
Opening Power Line.
A bounce was expected. But the new Peerless Red Sell S12 has not
been reversed. We need to
see the following::
1) a break in the falling trend of the NYSE A/D Line;
2) the DJI must start rising on higher volume hourly than when it falls;
3) the key ETFs must end their 7-10 day pattern of closing below
their openings.
4) the DJI's Accum. Index needs, at least, to rise back above its own
21-dma
5) and the bearish ratios of new lows and MINCPs to new highs and MAXCPs
must end.
In this environment - net
bearish Professionals and heavy red distribution -
most of our Bearish MINCPs keep
falling. Stay hedged with shorts in
some of these. Sell any
ETF or stock that is below its 65-dma or has
a falling Closing Power. Our QuickSilver approach
tells us to short ETFS with
both Closing Powers and Opening
Powers falling when they rise back to
their falling
5-day ma or break major price
support..
I would also hold short DIA as long as
its Closing Power is falling or until Peerless
gives a new Buy signal.
There are fewer and fewer attractive longs among our
Bullish MAXCPs. Here we
want to try to buy those that have just broken their
Closing Power downtrends
if they have recently shown a bulge of Accumulation
and have just successfully tested their
65-dma.
Bearish Statistics on 65-Day MA Support/Resistance
Tiger's New Charting Tool:
The Percentage of all stocks above the support of
the 65-dma.
The oscillator above shows that
66.4% of all stocks
are still
below the resistance of their 65-dma This statistic worsened
on Wednesday, despite the usual bullishness of the day before
the start of the July4th holiday weekend.
7/3/2015
Index/Sector Pct.of Stocks
above 65-dma.
today .... yesterday
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DJI-30
20.0%
23.3%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTDOWJ.GIF
SP-500 34.0% 35.0% http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP50.GIF
QQQ 32.7% 35.7%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTNASD.GIF
Russell-1000 36.7% 37.1%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTRUS-.GIF
OEX 34.7% 36.7%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP-1.GIF
All Stocks
33.6% 34.8%
http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DATA65.GIF
The DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM and IBB show similar patterns in that they have falling Closing Powers and 5-dma, but their Opening Powers are all rising. The large number of days that they have had red candle-stick charts (i.e. that they closed below their openings) is certainly a warning that Professionals are selling to the Public and that higher Openings are being bid up by overseas buyers and market makers who absorbed a lot of stock on the recent decline and want to even out their positions. In addition, these 5 first ETFs below have each rallied up fairly closely to resistance that must be expected at their falling 5-dma. Monday they will bearishly turn back down from their 5-day pivot points despite the bullish seasonality of the 4th of July period. In the present context, this looks quite bearish, especially if red down-day volume picks up in a really big way. 7/2 Pivot-P IP21 Comments ---------------------------------------------------------------- DIA 177.4 178.65 -.225 6 straight Red Candlestick days. Cover when CP downtrend is broken. http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DIA.GIF SPY 207.5 209.86 -.157 8 straight Red Candlestick days http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/SPY.GIF QQQ 107.92 110.00 -.117 6 straight Red Candlestick days. http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/QQQ.GIF IWM 125.23 127.85 +.159 6 straight Red Candlestick days. http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IWM.GIF IBB 369.9 375.84 +.199 Needs to get back above 370 breakout point http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IBB.GIF The most bearish Bearish Big ETFS show "Both Down" condition (opening and closing power falling) and a falling 5-dma. They should be shorted at their falling 5-dma and covered by traders when they reach the first lower band. See charts below. This process can profitably be continued until their 5-dma turns up. 7/2 Pivot IP21 OIH 33.87 35.23 -.251 KOL 11.24 11.53 -.528 STOCK RED SELLS In looking for new stocks to sell short, look also at the REDSELL download. This has stocks that have shown steadily red (negative) Accumulation for the last 3 months. View them with Tiger CandleStick charting to see their Closing Power downtrend. Hold the most bearish in this group until their Closing Power breaks its downtrend. The Opening Power will only turn down when the Public finally turns bearish. This condition will often bring a climactic sell-off. See the most bearish of these below.
|
7/2/2015 150+ TigerSoft Charts Go to http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/ to see them. I also want to encourage you to run our software. I can load the latest version of Tiger and Peerless in a fast Dell XP laptop and send it to you for only $160. You can then get the data from me for $175/year or use TC-2000 for $30/month. Unfortunately, they do not provide the necessary data to run Peerless. That data would have to be put in by hand.) New Highs: NASD 12 NYSE 16 New Lows: NASD 46 NYSE 55 11 -13 Bullish MAXCPs http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-2/bullish.htm 236 Bearish MINCPs - http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-2/bearish.htm The great plurality of Bearish MINCPs over Bullish MAXCPs warns that Professionals are still bearish many more stocks than they are bullish. There is little point in trying to pick a winner on the long side now. |
History of New Extended
Red Sell S12s 1929 June - bad Sell: failure after price breakout (late Summer rally) 3.4% loss - reversed 6 days later by Buy B4. Note DJI was essentially unchanged from what it was 65-days before and showed an OBVPct of +.156. This signal was redundant, as there already was a regular Sell S12. 1929 September 5- perfect Sell just before Crash! BIG DECLINE +43.3% gain LA/MA = 1.013 PI=-26 IP21= -.109 VI= -454 OBVPct = .112 DJI was up 19% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was redundant, as there already were a variety of Peerless Sells. 1932 November 7 - premature Sell 64.6 ---> 68.0 ---> 55.9 BIG DECLINE +9.0% gain LA/MA = 1.046 PI=-41 IP21= -.079 VI= -156 OBVPct = - .069 DJI was up 8.3% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was not as good as the perfect Sell S2 right at top. 1936 April 2 - perfect Sell BIG DECLINE +6.7% gain LA/MA = 1.026 PI=-27 IP21= -.089 VI= -231 OBVPct = + .198 DJI was up 11.3% above its level of 65-days before. This signal was redundant, as there already were a variety of Peerless Sells. 1936 October 7 - bad Sell. but A/D Line was weak until end of 1936 and this was right after a perfectly flat-topped breakout. LA/MA = 1.034 PI=-14 IP21= -.051 VI= -105 OBVPct = + .253 (too high?) DJI was up 12.2% above its level of 65-days before. 1959 December 31 - perfect Sell BIG DECLINE 1963 December 4 - bad Sell. Early December is not usually a good time to sell short. LA/MA = 1.015 PI=-58 IP21= -.066 VI= -577 OBVPct = + .028 DJI was up 4.0% above its level of 65-days before. 1964 June 19 -bad Sell. - 823 ---> 851 ---> 833 and then up strongly. The loss here would have been small using Peerless. It would have been 2.5% based on Peerless Buy B10 on 6/17/2015 LA/MA = 1.011 PI=-11 IP21= -.108 VI= -317 OBVPct = - .006 DJI was only up 0.8% above its level of 65-days before. 1965 April 12 - premature Sell - 906 ---> 939.6 ---> 840 1967 April 18 - premature Sell - 873 ---> 909 ---> 847 1972 August 2 - premature Sell - 944 ---> 970.35 ---> 921.66 1998 June 29 - premature Sell - 8997.36 ---> 9337.97 ---> 7539.07 BIG DECLINE 2000 August 7 - premature Sell - 10867 ---> 11311 ---> 7539 BIG DECLINE 2012 December 5 - premature Sell - 13034 ---> 13351 ---> 12938 2015 May 19 - LA/MA = 1.013 PI= 13 IP21= -.008 VI= -48 OBVPct = .115 DJI was up 1.5% above its level from 65-days before. |
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Announcements
--------------------------------
E-Books
1
The On-Line Explosive Stocks
2
The On-Line Killer Short
Sales book
Purchase each all new book by CC for
$42.50 or send a check for $37.50 to me.
I call your
attention now to the many new concepts and
the considerable new research in them:
For example:
1) A very good New Tiger Buy B12 for Low
Priced Stocks
2) After Red high volume reversal days use CP
uptrend-breaks.
3) Buy the stocks the Federal Govt wants you
to buy.
4) 100-Day Power Rankings...
5) Using Closing Power Hooks after Buy B26s
and B20s.
6) How A Stock Reacts to Its Earnings Report
Is Very important.
7) TigerSoft Major Buy Signals' Combinations
Which are most Powerful? Reliable?
8) Augmented Buy B20s' Independent Success
Rate.
9) What factors warn a rising 65-dma will not
hold?
10) The classic cluster of technical
characteristics that commonly appear
in the 23 stocks falling 70% or more in
the deep pullback of 2011.
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PEERLESS STOCK MARKET TIMING:
A Guide To
Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE
Peerless Signals: 1915-2014
New Peerless Signals and DJI Charts - version 7/4/2013
1965
1965-6 1966
1966-7 1967
1967-8 1968
1968-9 1969
1969-70
1970
1970-1
1971
1971-2 1972
1972-3
1973 1973-4
1974
1974-5 1975
1975-6
1976 1976-7
1977
1977-1978
1978
1978-79
1979 1979-80
1980 1980-1
1981 1981-2
1982 1982-1983
1983 1983-1984
1984
1984-1985
1985
1985-1986
1986 1986-1987
1987 1987-8
1988
1988-9 1989
1989-90
1990
1990-1 1991
1991-2 1992
1992-3 1993
1993-4 1994
1994-5 1995
1995-1996
1996
1996-7 1997
1997-8 1998
1998-1999 1999
1999-2000 2000
2000-1
2001 2001-2
2002
2002-3 2003
2003-4 2004
2004-5
2005 2005-6
2006 2006-7
2007 2007-8
2008 2008-9
2009
2009-10
2010 2010-11
2011 2011-12
2012
2012-2013
2013 2013-4 2014
Introduction to Tiger/Peerless Buys and Sells.
Different Types
of TigerSoft/Peerless CHARTS, Signals and Indicators
How reliable support is the DJI's rising 200-day ma?
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TIGERSOFT SIGNALS AND INDICATORS:
Documentation for TigerSoft
Automatic and Optimized Signals.
SPY Charts since 1994: Advisory Closing Power S7s, Accum. Index, 65-dma,
Optimized Signals.
"The
Jig Is Up": Calling September and October Tops.
A Keynesian's Warning Signs.
NUGT since 2012: A study of Tiger Technicals
Tiger Day
Traders Tool and most active Triple Leveraged ETFs
Advisory Pink Closing Power S7s at ETF at top since 1994
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 QQQ
SPY
DIA
2002
2007
2008
SPY 2011
2013-2014
Tiger Buy and Sell
Signals: New 2014 Research:
These are randomly chosen
groups.
but clearly we need to back-test them in more years.
You can replicate or do similar studies yourself
for other signals and/or other years.
9/1/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B19s - Steady rallying and no pullbacks below the 21-day ma.
9/2/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B17s on 14As taken alphabetically
9/3/2014 -
2014 Tiger B17s on 60
Biotechs taken alphabetically
9/4/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B18s on all "R" stocks taken alphabetically
* 9/8/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B20s - Conclusion: Use Closing Power trendbreaks in aftermath.
9/8/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B16s - Conclusion: Use mostly when
LA/MA under 1.05.
9/11/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B15s - Conclusion: Certain conditions
improved the results dramatically.
9/12/2014 -
2014 Tiger
B25s - Conclusion: 87.5% success rate
when other internals are positive.
9/15/2014 -
2014 Tiger B25s -
Best conditions for using B25s with somewhat
higher RSX capitalization stocks.
9/16/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal in 2014: 14s, QQQ, DJI-30 and ETFs
9/17/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2009A-s
9/18/2014 -
New Tiger
Closing Power Take-Off Buy Signal: 2010A-s
9/21/2014 -
New Tiger
Augmented Sell S8s: DJI-30 - 2014
Requiring S8s to show
Negative CP%-Pr and IP21<+.15 produced a 70% success rate
in a rising market for
DJI-30 stocks and big ETFs.
9/24/2014 -
Tiger Sell
S14s: They make price breakdowns very bearish.
1/15/2015
-
Tiger Day
Traders' Tool Explained.
http://www.tigersoft.com/day-traders/index.html
http://www.tigersoft.com/Indicators/index.htm
http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/Aug-31-2009/index.html
NEW
2/16/2015
1) New -
Tiger Charts showing UP%, Opening-Up%, Closing-Up%
Note differences between bullish
and bearish stocks...
2) New -
UP%,
Opening-Up%, Closing-Up% Rankings of any directory.
3) New -
Display of what happens to a stock after various size openings up or down.
4) New -
6-month charts to better
show volume changes and 5-day ma with bands.
More profitable trading schemes coming...
Targeted Trading Opportunities:The Profits Quickly Add Up,
3/29/2015
Tiger CandleSticks:
IBB: 2001-2015
and
Recent Others.
====================================================================================
Earlier Hotlines
2-7-2014 to 3/19/2014
11-22-2014 to 2-6-2014
http://tigersoftware.com/555HL555/index.htm
10/9/2014 - 11/21/2014
http://tigersoftware.com/9933Hot/
9/2/2014 - 10/8/2014-
http://tigersoftware.com/2233HL/index.html
6/25/2013-9/1/2014
http://tigersoftware.com/112211-H/index.htm
11/22/2013-3/20/2014
http://tigersoft.com/1111-HL/index.html
10/22/2013-11/21/2013
Past
Hotline Predictions
http://tigersoft.com/-HL42013/index.html
http://www.tigersoft.com/-2GBL13HL/index.htm
==============================================================================================================================