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    7/10/2014      A new Greek bailout has just been agreed to.  This saves the EURO.
                          and big European bankers for the time being.  In response, the DJI should
                          continue its rally back to 17800 to close the downward gap there in the DJI. 

                                             Have We Just Had A Typical Pullback?

                          Bulls will point to how well the DJI has held up in the face of scary reporting
                          about Greece and China. They will point to the general bullishness of July.
                          In addition, I have warned not to fight the Fed or  the Chinese Government.
                          They can make a long bull market get even longer if they wish.  And with
                          next year being a Presidential Election year, we should not be surprised if the
                          Administration gets its allies in the FED to prop up the market for a lot
                          longer than the perma-bears will like.

                                      Another Pullback and Test of 17500 Seems Likely

                          Friday's saw a reversal up from the 17500 support with a ratio of advancing
                          NYSE stocks to declining stocks of 3.93 to 1.  I did more checking
                          about recent reversals since 2011.   In fact, six of the last 12
                          reversals upwards had lower ratios of advances to declines as they
                          turned back upward preparatory to making at least a nominal closing
                          high.  This means can take Monday's breadth as being consistent with a
                          valid recovery. So, that's a bullish consideration now. 

                          But there are several problems with the bullish viewpoint that we have just had
                          a typical benign intermediate-term decline. The first problem is the 
                          the depth of the DJI's pullback from its previous high was shallower here
                          than in all of the 12 pullbacks that led to a recovery.  The second problem
                          is how much lower the IP21 was at its bottom here than in any of the
                          previous cases..  I think this suggests that the DJI has probably not reached a
                          sufficiently oversold reading to make a bottom very trustworthy. It's true
                          the OBVPct does not show heavy dumping.  But OBVPct is not as good a
                          predictor as the Hourly OBV/DISI has been and as I keep saying, this
                          Hourly indicator remains distinctly bearish.

                                   Strong Breadth and DJI Reversals back Upward
                                   after An Intermediate-Term  Decline: 2011-2015

                          Date         Pct. Decline from    Ratio of                 Lowest        Lowest
                                          Recent Peak           NYSE Adv/Decl    IP21 Level  OBVPct
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          8/11/2011       15.0%              12.4 :1                 -.275              -.442   Quick bounce and
                                                                                                                                       and then a re-test of lows.
                          10/5/2011         8.0%               2.74 :1 (lower)    -.064              +.028
                          11/28/2011       8.2%               5.09 :1                -.037              -.032 
                           6/6/2012          8.8%               7.14 :1                -.131              -.659 (very oversold)
                          12/19/2012       7.5%               7.57 :1                -.205              -.179
                           6/26/2013        5.0%               3.5   :1 (lower)    -.111              -.018
                           9/9/2013          5.5%               4.01 :1 (lower)    -.127              -.347
                           10/10/2013      6.0%               5.68 :1                -.129              -.241
                           2/6/2014          7.0%               3.02 :1 (lower)    -.167              -.382
                           10/20/2014      6.5%               2.85 :1 (lower)    -.186              -.212
                           12/17/2014      4.7%               7.61 :1                -.088              -.025
                            2/15/2015       5.0%               3.08 :1 (lower)    -.075              -.210
                            7/10/2015       4.2% LOWEST    3.93 :1                -.293 LOWEST  -.076  (fifth lowest)


                          The Technicals Are Still Bearish.  So another successful test of
                          17500 will probably be needed before the market shows an ability
                           to advance after the Opening. 

                          Most Professionals are still fighting the Fed and the Chinese Government.
                          We continue to see this in the way the Hourly DJI's DISI-OBV Line is
                          making new lows despite the DJI's move up from just above 17500 to
                          just below 17800 on Friday.  We see it in the way Opening Powers for
                          the DIA (as well as SPY and QQQ) are making new highs while their
                          Closing Powers still downtrending.  And we see it in the way the Peerless
                          Accumulation Index on the DJI-30 remains deeply red and is still downtrending.
                          See this in the charts just below.

Hourly DJI vs DISI/OBV Line

Opening Power Strength versus Closing Power Weakness in SPY

Peerless DJI's last signal is based on lengthy red (negative) period and is       continued by the Accum. Index (IP21) being below its 21-day and the       A/D Line downtrend still extant.

                          I suggested adding more short sales from among the Bearish MINCP stocks
                          on a rally to 17800 or on a close below 17500.  There are still not enough
                          Bullish MAXCP stocks to do much buying yet. The operative Peerless
                          S12 must stand for now, at least until the A/D Line breaks its downtrend
                          or we get a new Peerless Buy signal.

                              

                                              Playing The Over-Night Bounces
                                                                 PLUS
                             QUICKSILVER  FASTUP and FASTDOWN STOCKS

                         
                          With the market showing more smaller jerks and jolts and fewer
                          sustained trends, it probably pays to trade more.  With all the higher
                          openings than the previous day's close, one might simply buy stocks with a
                          high UP% at the close and sell them at the opening.  The High UP%
                          rankings offer some ideas here. 

                                       Stock           % of days in last year            Avg Daily Gain on Openings
                                                           that Openings were higher     when Opening Power Rising
                                       ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       CURE          64.5%                                  0.5%
                                       ESPR           57.0%                                  0.7%
                                       ALNY          57.0%                                  0.4%

                                QUICKSILVER  FASTUP and FASTDOWN STOCKS
.  .
                          One new thing traders can do now is to trade with the five-day ma trends
                          with the new "FASTUP" and FASTDOWN" downloads I have just 
                          added to the Tiger Data Page. These are all the stocks and ETFs with
                          a 5-day ma that is rising faster than an annualized rate of 500% or falling
                          faster that at a rate of more than -500%.  I suggest running the Tiger
                          Power Ranker against these two groups of stocks and using our QuickSilver
                          rules.  Short-term traders should hold long the very strongest FASTUPs
                          so long as they do not close below their 5-day "pivot-points" and hold short
                          the very weakest FASTDOWN so long as they do not close above their
                          5-day pivot points.  Try to take positions within 1% of the 5-day ma.  If you
                          like, close out part of the position on moves 5-7% away from the 5-day ma.
                          and keep shorting on each reversal down from the 5-day ma.

                          To show how this works, consider the recent recent cases of GASL, LJPC
                          and NUGT.  More  on this tomorrow night.

                          Many good trades will also start out when the 5-day ma reaches a more
                          modest +250% or a less steep -250%.  I will add a flag program to let you
                          find such stocks in any directory you wish to apply it.  I also want to provide
                          a file ranking the percent changes of the 5-day ma with the associated key values.
                          See this below as it works with he leveraged ETFs.                         
                          
                                  QUICKSILVER  FASTUP and FASTDOWN STOCKS

GASL

LJPC

NUGT

 
                                                     
                                 More and More Stocks Have
                    Over Head Resistance at Their 65-dma


                   Index/Sector        Pct.of Stocks
                                              above 65-dma.
                                            today .... yesterday  
                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   DJI-30             33.0%         16.7%     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTDOWJ.GIF
                                         oversold
                   SP-500            40,8%         28.3%     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP50.GIF         
                   QQQ               34.7%         27.6%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTNASD.GIF
                   Russell-1000    52.9%         30.1%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTRUS-.GIF
                   OEX                40.8%         28.6%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP-1.GIF
                   All Stocks        27.7%         26.5%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DATA65.GIF

DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM and IBB                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------                                              DIA       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DIA.GIF                      SPY      http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/SPY.GIF                    QQQ    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/QQQ.GIF                   IWM     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IWM.GIF                   IBB       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/IBB.GIF                   OIH       http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/OIH.GIF                           KOL     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/KOL.GIF

7/10/2015   150+ TigerSoft Charts                                     Go to http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/ to see them. New Highs: NASD  48          NYSE  33 New Lows:  NASD  30          NYSE  32                                                     22   Bullish MAXCPs  http://www.tigersoftware1.com/MAXMIN/7-10/bullish.htm                                                  272   Bearish MINCPs -                         The stocks are:  TKR, KNDI, DDD, IDX, GOLD, CTRL, Z,                                                   CPN, AHC and CBD                  The great plurality of Bearish MINCPs over Bullish MAXCPs                  warns that Professionals are still bearish many more stocks                  than they are  bullish.  There is little point in trying to pick a                  winner on the long side now.