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         6/29/2015    The Peerless Red Sell S12 and Falling Closing Powers
         should keep us short DIA.  The failed breakouts in IWM
         and IBB were reason to sell these long ETF positions.
         The Hotline has recently presented many Bearish MINCPs to short.
         Fewer and fewer bullish MAXCPs still show rising Closing Powers.
                     
         Look for a rally back to 17700.  Greek troubles seem far away
         to most Americans.  America also seems like a safe haven to
         Europeans.  But without a new Peerless Buy signal, its probably not wise
         to look for any more of a 1%-2% bounce for the rest of this week,
         even if the European Central bankers extend new credits
         to Greece.  Before that happens, I would think we will see the Closing Power
         downtrends for DIA, FAS and SPY broken. 



                                          Hourly DJIA



         Today the DJI broke its well-tested 17700 support.  It has completed
         what I construe to be a head/shoulders top.  It has also now closed
         slightly below its still rising 200-day ma.   From this moving average
         right before the Fourth of July, we could get a bounce.  But can it
         rise very much?  The broken support at 17720-17500 will be resistance,
         And beyond that, the pattern of institutional selling into strength
         is still very pronounced.  The Accumulation Index has been negative (red)
         or nearly so, for more than three months in the Peerless chart.  There
         are not many past tops like this.  1929 is the first that comes to mind.
         Breadth, of course, was much worse then, because the Fed had started
         to raise interest rates in the Spring of 1929.

                           False Breakouts and Head/Shoulders

         Not many stocks were able to hold today.  The two ETFs that looked the
         strongest last week, IWM and IBB, failed to hold at their breakout-levels. 
         The NASDAQ also exhibits what must now be considered as a bearish false breakout.   
         These often occur at market tops.  Significantly, the Blog I wrote about this
         phenomenon was written late in 2007 just as the 2007-2008 bear market
         was started.

         Another warning of big trouble is the completion of head and shoulders
         in the big indexes.  These are seen in the NYSE, OEX and SP-500,
         besides the DJI.  Such patterns often tells us that the market is suddenly dealing
         with very bearish developments that it did not previously fully anticipate.

                                       

                What If Greece IS Better off with Its Own Currency?

         Suddenly, the financial markets are being forced by events to consider the
         all possible financial risks inherent in any failure of Greece to be able to pay
         its debt to European bankers. And what if the Greek people on Sunday
         support their Government's decision to refuse Draconian terms for new loans?
         Greece will probably then need to return to the days when it had its own currency. 
         Most people forget.  But that was a time when as its own current grew weaker,
         more foreigners flocked to Greece to vacation and more Greek olives, etc were
|        exported. 

         So, Greek independence from the Euro might not actually be such as bad thing
         for the Greek people.   But for bankers and financial market there is now much
         more risk and uncertainty that there appeared a week ago.  What if other big national
         creditors discover that similar defaults can actually bring blessings to their country. 
         If Greece can successfully leave the Euro, why cannot Portugal, Spain and Italy? 
         These are the fears the big banks must now cope with.  What we are seeing could be
         the breaking apart of the EURO-based Common Market.  Small wonder the big banks
         were so hard hit today and with them, all the many stocks they have been driving up with
         the virtually free money the Fed has provided them.  At the very least, now creditors see
         the risks of default more clearly.  Interest rates surely  must now start to rise. 

                                            What To Do?
        
         Technically, the market remains weak and vastly over-bought.  It has not had
         a 10% correction since the July 2011.  The FED will probably do something
         to reassure investors,  But I doubt if they can prevent a decline by the DJI
         to its horizontal support at 17000 if Greece defaults tomorrow on its next
         big debt payment.

         Keep watching the Closing Power to see what Professionals are doing with their
         money and what they expect.  Be wary of higher openings.  These represent
         Over-Seas and Public buying.  Frequently, they are the result of Professional Market
         Makers' manipulation.  It is the Closings that are important now.  Tiger's Blue Closing
         Power must turn up to show Professionals have changed their mind. It is particularly
         bearish when Openings are higher and Closings are lower.  This is exactly how bear
         markets start. 

 
                                                                                                      
                                          

                       Bearish Statistics on 65-Day MA Support/Resistance
 
                          Only 16.7% of the individual DJI stocks are above their 65-dma support.
                          So 83.3% of them are positioned to now face keen resistance if they should rally
                          back up to their 65-dma.                
 
                                                Tiger's New Charting Tool:
                            The Percentage of all stocks above the support of the 65-dma.

                             The oscillator above shows that 50% of all stocks are still
                             below the resistance of their 65-dma  The downtrendline of the last
                             6 weeks has been broken. 
                                   
                                        6/29/2015              
                                        Index/Sector        Pct.of Stocks
                                                                  above 65-dma.
                                                                 today .... yesterday  
                                        --------------------------------------
                                        DJI-30             16.7%         36.7%     http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTDOWJ.GIF
                                        SP-500            31.6%          44.0%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP50.GIF         
                                        QQQ               31.6%          43.9%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTNASD.GIF
                                        Russell-1000    31.5%          44.8%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTRUS-.GIF
                                        OEX                31.6%          44.9%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/MASTSP-1.GIF
                                        All Stocks        31.1%          43.2%    http://www.tigersoftware1.com/HH/DATA65.GIF

 

6/29/2015   150+ TigerSoft Charts                                     Go to http://tigersoftware1.com/HH/ to see them.                    I also want to encourage you to run our software.  I can load                    the latest version of Tiger and Peerless in a fast Dell XP laptop                    and send it to you for only $160.  You can then get the data                    from me for $175/year or use TC-2000 for $30/month.  Unfortunately,                    they do not provide the necessary data to run Peerless.  That                    data would have to be put in by hand.) New Highs: NASD 10        NYSE  6     New Lows:  NASD 121       NYSE  269                                                       26         Bullish MAXCPs  - ALN was actually up today! 72         Bearish MINCPs - The weakest stocks just fell further today,