Daily Blog - Tiger Software
September 5, 2007
How To Find A BioTech Boomer Early On
Part 1 of a 10 part series.
Index of All Tiger Blog Topics
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have asked me to write a Daily Blog.
They seem to want me to give them a thought
or two each day. About what? Well,
have to wait and see. As, I see it, a blog is a
personal statement. I will try to make it enter-
taining and relate it mostly to the stock market.
I do promise not to belabor the
I hope these thoughts, reflections and finds are
worth your time. I will give you my best.
Send any comments or questions
9/5/2007 How To Find A BioTech Boomer Early On
The Beginning of A
Multi-Part Series on Biotech Investing.
As "baby boomers" age and
retire, some biotechs will surely boom, too. In the US there are more
million baby boomers.
Biotechs are manic. They seem to fluctuate widely. There are long periods
during which few
them advance and most drift lower. And there are exciting periods, often spurred on
by a well
publicized breakthrough and a block-buster drug. After AMGEN discovered and got FDA
blockbuster drugs, Neopogen and Epogen, in early 1991, other biotech stocks went wild.
The 20-year chart of Fidelity's Biotech (FBIOX) fund is shown below. In it you can
see all of the
advance in prices came in 2 important surges: 1989-1992 and 1998-2000. Technically
chartist would have bought early in 1990, never mind that there were two steep general
declines that year, and sold when Amgen shareholders met in 1991 to celebrate their good
profits would have been 300% in a year and a half. The breakout by FBIOX in
second point of important entry. Early in 2000, just as Greenspan was reappointed by
achieved a triple again. Except for those two episodes that took up less than
in the 20
year period, FBIOX was either going sidewise or down. The FBIOX seems to go
periods lasting 7 or 8 year. So a new move up is due. One more thing, you can
Democrats, if they take the White House in 2009, are going to increase public funding of
research. This will bring publicity to these companies' prospects and overseas'
successes. I would not wait until November 2009 to buy a biotech. I would
Now as we look at the Tiger chart of FBIOX below we see it is approaching a series
past peaks at 69. A
breakout above that level would be bullish. Not as bullish as a
breakout into all-time high
territory, but still very bullish. The Tiger chart of FBIOX
(Fidelity Biotech) shows that a
breakout has already taken place when FBIOX is
compared with the DJI.
I have observed that Biotechs are often a place where hot money goes when it
is starting to get nervous about
the market. The collapse of many housing and mortgage
stocks has cast a pall on may
sectors of the stock market. But tech stocks, and biotechs
are starting to get a play.
How do we decide which stocks to buy? That is the subject of
the next few blogs.
One of the easiest approaches is to simply see what stocks Fidelity has invested
in. Yahoo reports their 10
biggest holdings, as last reported. Right now these are their
|TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 67.38% OF TOTAL ASSETS)
||YTD Return %
|BIOGEN IDEC INC
|ALEXION PHARM INC
|PDL BIOPHARMA INC
Tiger lets us easily graph these stocks.
AMGN - Amgen ... On Buy... Top System's Gain = 58.3%
DNA - Genentech
... On Buy... Top System's Gain = 56.2%
Decisive breakout past blue 50-day ma.
BIIB - ... On Buy... Top System's Gain = 50.1%
of these. Shows most blue from Tiger's Accumulation Index.
GILD - Gilead Sciences ... On Buy... Top
System's Gain = 50.1%
CELG - Celgene ... On Buy... Top
System's Gain = 58.1%
CEPH - Cephalon ... On Buy... Top
System's Gain = 82.6%
- back to the resistance of its nest key mvg. avgs. other than 50-day ma
ALXN - Alexion ... On Buy... Top System's
Gain = 106.2%
Powerful up move today!
VRTX - Vertex Pharm ... On Buy... Top
System's Gain = 104.6%
PDLI - Protein Design Labs ... On
Buy... Top System's Gain = 149.5%
To Be continued.. This is the first of a long series
on Biotech Investments
Biotech Jokes, Cartoons and Tidbits To Talk about.
Genetics Savings and Clone, charges $1000 to collect and
cryogenically store cells from a family cat or
dog, and $250,000 to clone it.
Gene Patents Prevent Research
"A few years ago, UCLA geneticist Wayne Grody was working
hard to help deaf children. Grody
was conducting clinical tests on Connexin 26, a human gene linked to deafness, hoping it
would lead to
more effective treatment for kids. Then one day he received a letter from Athena
Massachusetts-based biotechnology company. Grody says the letter informed him that Athena
a patent for the Connexin 26 gene -- and he could no longer perform tests on it himself.
Instead, he would
have to pay thousands of dollars up-front and send future gene samples to Athena for
testing. He had no
choice. "I had to stop," Grody says. "The cost was out of sight." The
clinical tests ground to a halt."
-- Source: Michael Crowley, "They Own Your Body" Readers' Digest, August
I've been single-stranded too long! Lonely ATGCATG would like to pair up
with congenial TACGTAC.
Menage a trois! Ligand seeks two receptors into binding and mutual
phosphorylation. Let's get together and transduce some signals.
Some dates have called me a promotor. Others have referred to me as a real
operator. Personally, I think I'm just a cute piece of DNA who is still
looking for that special transcription factor to help me unwind.
Highly sensitive, orally active small molecule seeks stable well-structured
receptor who knows size isn't everything.
There must be a rational way to meet a date! I'm tired of hanging out in
those molecular diversity bars, hoping to randomly bump into the right
peptide. I want a molecule that will fit right into my active site and
really turn me on. I'll send you my crystal structure if you send me
Gene therapy graduate. After years of producing nothing but gibberish, I've
shed my exons and am ready to express my introns. All I need is a cute
vector to introduce me to the right host.
My RNA, I'm sorry I misread your UAAUAAUAA and inserted three tyrosines
when you repeatedly asked me to stop. Something got lost in the
translation. Please forgive me.
Naked DNA with sticky ends seeks kanamycin-resistant plasmid. EcoR1 sites
Uninhibited virus seeks reason to make me shed my coat protein.
This very selective oliogonucleotide has been probing for just the right
target for long term hybridization.
Mature cell seeks same who still enjoys cycling and won't go apoptotic on
me. Let's fight senescence together!
I'm a prolific progenitor with great potential for growth and self-renewal.
Call me if you're a potent hematopoietic factor who still believes in
endless nights of colony stimulation.
I don't always express myself on the surface, but I'm looking for a signal
that you appreciate my complexity. Send me the right message that will
penetrate my membranes, turn on my protein expression and release my