wpeC8E.jpg (46063 bytes)  TIGER HOTLINE  wpeC8F.jpg (28796 bytes)

        william_schmidt@hotmail.com       
 wpe9.jpg (10710 bytes)   A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE

  TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline
          (C) 1985-2012 William Schmidt, Ph.D.  www.tigersoft.com               All rights strictly reserved.  
                                                       

     Recent Background Studies

    
NEW    1/30/2012   Inverted Traders' Index NCs at upper and lower bands have
                                     good predictive value: 1990-2012

         10/24/2011  2011's Super Stocks - 90% Showed Insider Buying as Tiger measures it,
                          early on and before their biggest moves


         9/30/2011 Key Support failures in DJI since 1929
        Weekly DJI and A/D Line charts since 1928
 
          6/14/2011 - Tiger Charts of SPY's Closing, Opening Powers and IDOSC: 1994-2011

            Peerless Buys and Sells applied to DIA, SPY, QQQ and Canadian ETF (EWC)
            See New blogs about the profitability of Peerless Buys and Sells applied to DIA,
            SPY, QQQ and EWC (Canada) and other country ETFs, Brazil, South America
            and Mexico.  Also see the study just done of the industry groups that Peerless
            Buys and Sells worked best with since 1986.

                              http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April-28-2011/index.html
                              http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April27-2011/Index.html
                              http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/4-23-2011/index.html
            
4/15/2011 Surging Biotech's       -  A Wave of Good Hope
             3/11/2011  NASDAQ Charts: 1990-2011 Show Reliability of Head/Shoulders
             3/8/2011        Compare Grain Tops Now with Those They Made in 2008:
              Rice, Wheat, Oats, Soybeans

             >SPY: TigerSoft Charts: 1993-2011: Study them to improve your technical analysis skills.
             >Head/Shoulders, CP trends, NC's, zig-zags, Flagrant Accum. Index NNCs and PNCs.
             >Use TigerSoft's Insider Trading Charts To Look Beneath A Stock's Surface

             2/23/2011 SPY Candle Stock Charts: 1993-2011
             2/12/2011  Trading Gold and Silver Stocks with TigerSoft's Key Indicators Measuring Insider
                               and Professional Buying and Selling.
            
2/8/2011    Trading The EURO since 1999 Using TigerSoft's Closing Power  and Accumulation Index.
                               This sets out a convenient list of trading rules that should be helpful.
     

             TigerSoft Blogs   
                                                 11/16/2010  30-Treas.-BONDS and The DJIA since 1980
                                                 11/4/2010   TRADING RESULTS FOR BULLISH and
BEARISH SPECIAL SITUATIONS

            What we can learn from the Picks from Late July - September 2010
                                                 10/16/2010         New Research for Trading with Closing Power

               
Overnight Market Action:                                                                           
                                 Bloomberg Futures around the world before the US Markets open.    
                                 CNN Futures before the Opening in NY
                                 24-hour Spot Chart - Gold      24-hour Spot Chart - Silver     Dollar and Currencies
                   
             Daily NYSE and NASDAQ New Highs.      

                    Earlier Hotlines - See MASTER-LINK which was sent to subscribers.
             
                  
To Renew the Hotline, order here   350 (check) - 360(Visa/MC) 

    Hotline   1/30/2012   12661 -74      Advance= 1112  Declines= 1904

             BUY B10 and Rising A/D Line Predict Higher Prices. 12900 Remains Our Target.

             The DJI found support at its rising 21-day ma and turned up at the close so that the DJI's loss
             was very minor.   I noticed that NYSE new highs rose for the day.  Dividend stocks and
             speculative high performance stocks are in favor.  The breaking by the Opening Power
             of its rising 21-day ma is a warning that more weakness at the openings could be ahead.
             But, as long, as the Closing Power uptrend in intact, we should expect 12900 or more.
             And as long as the NYSE A/D Line is rising, the intermediate-term trend is clearly up.

             The proportion of NYSE Up Volume to Down Volume is falling behind the ratio of NYSE
             advances to declines.  See the last chart for today below.  This has to be of concern, but as long
             as such a NC (non-confirmation) does not occuur on a tagging of the upper 3.5% band and
             the NYSE A/D Line is uptrending, I think we have to trust the Peerless Buy signal.  A break
             in the uptrend of what has been a very strong period of Daily and Weekly Advances-Declines
             would likely stop the advances as it did early 1977, 2001 and 2002.  For now, let's see if the
             DJI can reach the expected keenest resistance at 12900

                                                            DJI remains on a Buy B10
                                                          NYSE A/D Line is uptrending.           
DATA.BMP (1219254 bytes)

1/30/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
     175
(+32)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

               
3 (-1)       SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs: Incl REGN 88.88 +3.34   
   
      
29 (-5)        MINCP stocks     Bearish MINCP Stocks                       
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
31
(-17) new highs on NASDAQ.  10 (+4) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
 102
(+1) new highs NYSE    6 (0) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/29/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ        GLD       SLV     Crude Oil

   1/29/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  Opening Power are rising, as are CLosing Powers. This is bullish
    until one of them violates its 21-day ma.

DIA' s       Slower CP is uptrending But steeper CP uptrend was violated.
   A close
0.19  BELOW its opening would break the shallow CP uptrend.
   Opening Power broke its 21-day ma.

DIAEX1.BMP (1233654 bytes)

   SPY's Shallow CP's is uptrending. 
  A close
0.31 BELOW its opening would break the steep CP uptrend.
   Opening Power broke its 21-day ma.

wpe9.jpg (69219 bytes)

   QQQ's Steeper CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.56    BELOW the Opening to break the steeper short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   Opening Power broke its 21-dma

wpeD.jpg (68621 bytes)

    GLD's CP  is uptrending.
 
It would take a close of .56 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline. 
   Its Opening Power is still rising.  

WARNING:  Up Volume is Rising but No Longer in Proportion to the Ratio of NYSE Advances to Declines.
In the second chart below, see how the last DJI new high was not confirmed by the Tiger Inverted Cumulative
(MKDS) making a new high of its own.  "NC" means non-confirmation of a price new high or low.  I will post
1/30/2012   Inverted Traders' Index NCs at upper and lower bands have good predictive value: 1990-2012

wpeE.jpg (66048 bytes)

wpeF.jpg (54732 bytes)

         ================================================================= 
                                   OLDER HOTLINES
       ===============================================   

Hotline   
1/27/2012   12661 -74     Advance= 1947  Declines= 1061
                                 
      HOTLINE ADDRESS WILL BE CHANGED TUESDAY NIGHT
                LOOK FOR EMAIL MONDAY.

DJI Weakness vs NASDAQ Strength. 

       Buy B10 and Seasonality are bullish.   Breadth was excellent despite
  DJI decline.  Resistance up to 12900 has not yet been overcome in DJI.
  NASDAQ-100 is stronger and has made a new yearly high and shows
  both Opening and Closing Power to be rising.  This is bullish.  The
  "red popcicle" Tiger Candlestick charts do suggest a DJI and SPY retreat.  Odds
  are that it will be minor. The rising 65-dma ma now at 12100 should be
  very good support because there is no Peerless Sell.


SPYPOP.BMP (1440054 bytes)

      All 4 of the earlier B10s in January were profitable.
    
   Current    1/18/2012   DJI = 12579 
         la/ma           21-dmaROC  P-I Change                IP21        V-I      Opct.
         1.023           .69                  P= 553 (+46)          .125        +95      .107 (low)

    1   1/13/1967  835.13  
Gain=   +4.0%
          la/ma   21-dmaROC          P-I Change   IP21    V-I    Opct.
         1.039  .273                          135   21               .07      5     .221
        
Bottom formation B10 after a Bear Market.   DJI rose immediately.  No paper loss.
         ... Reversed at 968.49 on 3/16/67 by S12

    2    1/7/1976   898.69     Gain = +12.3%
         la/ma     21-dmaROC       P-I Change   IP21   V-I    Opct.
         1.054    1.124                    286    35          .20        2 
   .536              
        
DJI rose immediately .. Reversed at 1009.21 on 3/24/76 by S9  No paper loss.

  3      1/12/1989   2222.32  Gain = +24.7%
          la/ma      21-dmaROC  P-I Change   IP21   V-I      Opct.
          1.023   .454                    118    21           .078    11   .185      
          
DJI rose immediately  ... No paper loss...Reversed at 2771.09 on 10/4/89 by S9

  4    1/31/1991  2736.39  +22.6%
          la/ma      21-dmaROC  P-I   Change  IP21   V-I     Opct.
          1.058    .58      143   33  .116  12   .218
       
  DJI rose immediately  ... Reversed at 3353.76 on 4/15/92 by S9


      The Weekly DJI and NYSE A/D Line chart shows how much stronger the A/D Line is
      than the DJI.  This is usually bullish.  The exceptions are 1977, 2001 and 2001.  Breaks in
      the NYSE A/D Line uptrend would be the best warning other than a new Peerless Sell
      that a big decline is developing.

wpe9.jpg (63161 bytes)

      Looking at the 5-year weekly charts of the DIA, QQQ and SPY show
      what I take to be the most important resistance lines:
               Weekly DIA   - Resistance from apex of right shoulder - 127.15
                  Weekly QQQ - Resistance from rising resistance line - 60.71
                  Weekly SPY - Falling resistance line - 131.82

       
The review of 650 weekly charts for the biggest stocks shows none with
  bearish head and shoulders patterns that I can identify.  A number of these stocks
  could make significant upside breakouts.  This will show the general market's rally has
  started again in earnest.
            

                  IMPENDING BREAKOUTS
                         CELG - 76 and 78 are resistance
                         CLB - 110 resistance
                         CVX - 111 resistance
                         EBAY - 34.2 resistance
                         HRL - 30.57 resistance
                         IBM - 193 ressitance
                         QCOM - 60 resistance
                         SNPS - 29.5 resistance
                         ULTA - 80 resistance
                         VAR - 71 resistance
                         XOM -   88.5 resistance
           

1/27/2012  DJI = 12661 -74  la/ma=1.013  21-dma ROC=.352  P= 544 (-39)  IP21= .158     V= +48  OP= .071
wpe9.jpg (81903 bytes)


    1/27/2011
       BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
     142
(-37)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

               
4 (-2)     SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
       
34 (+19)      MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
48
(+8) new highs on NASDAQ.  6 (+2) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
 101
(-28) new highs NYSE    6 (+2) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   
1/27/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ       GLD      SLV     Crude Oil

   1/27/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  Opening Power are rising, as are CLosing Powers. This is bullish
    until one of them violates its 21-day ma.

   DIA' s      Slower CP is uptrending But steeper CP uptrend was violated.
  A close
1.80  BELOW its opening would break the shallow CP uptrend.
   Opening Power is at its 21-day ma.

   SPY's Shallow CP's is uptrending. 
  A close
2.09  BELOW its opening would break the shallow CP uptrend.
   Opening Power is at its 21-day ma.

   QQQ's Steeper CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.20   BELOW the Opening to break the steeper short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   Its Opening Power is rising.

    GLD's CP  is uptrending.
 
It would take a close of 2.56 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline. 
   Its Opening Power is rising.  

                                          QQQ's Opening and CLosing Power are Both Rising.

wpeD.jpg (73350 bytes)




====================================================================================
                                                                   OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

                               1/26/2012    DJI = 12735 -22

Important:  CHANGE
         Our hotline's location will change this
Tuesday. 
     Look for an email from us Monday giving the new location.

I will also send you links to the Peerless historical research
and past Hotlines.  This is needed to protect our research.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Buy B10, Rising Opening and Closing Powers plus Low Interest Rates
       Rising A/D Line Are Bringing DJI CLoser to 12900 Yearly Intra-Day
       High Resistance.  But now Tiger "Red Popcicle" Candlesticks Patterns
       Suggest A Shallow Retreat Soon.  Just Hold Long Posiitons for now.
 

      "Both-Up" Tiger Condition favors higher prices: both Opening
           and Closing Power are above their rising 21-day ma.

           As long as the NYSE A/D Line is rising, stick with your long positions. 
           Interest rates are falling again short-term.  The Dollar's weakness the last few days
           seems controlled, and as such invites hedging with stocks.  (It should
           be clear from last August's sell-off that a collapsing Euro is not in the
           interest of US investors or US banks.)  
          
            January B10s have averaged gains of 15% since 1928.

           The DJI is nearing resistance.  Profit-taking is natural.  The
           steep Closing Power uptrends of the SPY and QQQ were broken
           today.  I expect a DJI close near 12900 before much of a decline
           occurs.  End of the month buying will help the DJI reach 12900.
           Since 1965, the DJI has risen 69% of the time over the next 3 trading
           days and 60% over the next two weeks.  Seasonal weakness does
           set in for two weeks around the middle of February.

           The DJI often makes a nominal 12-month closing high or low at important reversal points.
           Look back at some of the older DJI charts to see this.
           On April 29th, 2011 the DJI closed at 12810.54.  A close above that would
           seem likely at a minimum if that pattern continues.  After that, if the rally
           continues, resistance will be keenest at the peak of May 2, 2009 at 13058.


           Our Tiger candlestick charts do show "red popcicles" for the QQQ and SPY.
           This is a warning, despite the Peerless Buy signal.  See last night's hotline.
           With seasonality and breadth strong, this may only mean a shallow decline to
           the rising 21-day ma.

DJAwpe9.jpg (70014 bytes)
SPYwpeD.jpg (69897 bytes)
QQQ wpeE.jpg (66764 bytes)



                                                       ETF Notes - 1/26/2012
      
     
  Looking regularly through the ETFS in Tiger's SECTOR data base is a good exercise.
           Some of the data needs correcting this weekend, for one thing.  I also see biotechs
           and pharmaceuticals are due for a retreat and some profit-taking while oil and gas
           could get slip.  That would be in keeping with some hesitation in prices here, perhaps
           as more speculative stocks get new attention.  Low priced atocks are also at resistance.
           So, the speculation will probably be in the super-2011 (strongest performing) stocks.

           >BBH (Biotechs) and IBB (Nasdaq Biotech) Bearish reversal day after a 6 week move from 103 to 128

           >BGU (3x large caps) have rallied up to point of breakdown (
resistance) from late July 2011. 

           >DUG (Ultra Oil Short) has just given
a red Buy. 5-day Stochastic. This trading signal
           has gained 199% for the last year. Its CP has just broken its downtrend-line.

           >GAZ (Natural Gas)
failed to rally past its falling 21-day ma again.  The warm winter
           has created a surplus of natural gas.

           >GLD is
back above its 65-dma, after turning up from its rising 52-week ma.
           >PPH (Pharmaceuticals) are showing
steady Red distribution for the last two months and
          
weakening Relative Strength.  


                                                              PEERLESS and DJIA

1/26/2012 
DJI = 12735 -22   la/ma=1.021  21-dma ROC=.421  P= 503 (-59)  IP21= .164      V= +45  OP= .101

wpe9.jpg (81137 bytes)

1/25/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
     179
(+54)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 6 (+6)
    SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
       
15 (-14)     MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks  - none listed tonight.                     
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
40
(-27) new highs on NASDAQ.  4 (-3) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
 129
(+38) new highs NYSE    4 (+2) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/26/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ      GLD     SLV     Crude Oil

   1/26/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  Opening Power are rising, as are CLosing Powers. This is bullish
    until one of them violates its 21-day ma.

   DIA' s     Slower CP is uptrending But steeper CP uptrend was violated.
  A close
1.11  ABOVE its opening would restore the CP uptrend.

   SPY's Steeper CP's is uptrending.  But steeper CP uptrend was violated.
  A close
1.29  ABOVE its opening would restore the CP uptrend.

   QQQ's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.3  BELOW the Opening to break the steeper short-term CP UP-trendline.  

    GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
 
It would take a close of 1.93 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   



=====================================================================================  
                                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================



1/25/2012

Buy B10, ETF's Rising CLosing Powers and Low Interest Rates
Bring DJI CLoser to 12900 Yearly Intra-Day High Resistance.


"Both-Up" Tiger Condition favors higher prices: both Opening
and Closing Power are above their rising 21-day ma.

Also:

AAPL's Huge Profitability invites competition and questions
about use of Chinese "slave labor" instead of American workers.


  Bearish TigerSoft Candle Sticks and AAPL: 1990-2012

"Red Popcicle"                   "Upside-down Red Popcicle"

red-double-popsicle-md.png (9717 bytes)                                          wpeD.jpg (2952 bytes)
AAPL.BMP (1185654 bytes)


                                                 PEERLESS and DJIA

1/25/2012 
DJI = 12757 +81  la/ma=1.024  21-dma ROC=.563  P= 561 (+1)  IP21= .219     V= +70  OP= .191

wpe8.jpg (81357 bytes)

  1/25/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
     179
(+54)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 6 (+6)
    SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
       
15 (-14)    MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
67
(+34) new highs on NASDAQ.  7 (+1) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
 91
(+2) new highs NYSE    2 (-2) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/25/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ     GLD    SLV     Crude Oil

   1/250/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

   DIA' s    CP is uptrending     A close 0.21  BELOW its opening would bearishly break the steeper CP uptrend
 
  Opening Power is rising.  

wpe9.jpg (68325 bytes)

  SPY's CP's is uptrending.   It would take a Close
2.99 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising.  
wpeA.jpg (62765 bytes)

   QQQ
's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.53  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
  
  Opening Power is rising.  
wpeB.jpg (67769 bytes)

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
  
It would take a close of  3.59 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   
  Opening Power is rising.

wpeC.jpg (53619 bytes)

            
            wpe9.jpg (24857 bytes)


        
APPLE's Stunning Profits Send It and NASDAQ Up Sharply

   
   Todays AAPL rally could be construed to be as a classic  "buying climax" which
         could potentially end a long and steep uptrend.  TigerSoft candle stick charts show this.

        The
rightside-up "red popsicle" it formed today with a monster gap certainly
        represents a lot short covering and public buying.  Red popcicles have been reliably
        bearish in the past with AAPL.  See the sampling I did quickly tonight.  Admittedly,
        the sample is biased, in that it took only the last 100 trading days of each year
        since 1990. Look at these charts and draw your own conclusions.  Mine - and I
        have not studied Japanese candle sticks' theory very much - is that "
red popcicles are reliably
        bearish
, as are "upside down red popcicles" and "encompassing red" candle-sticks, too.

        See http://tigersoft.com/1211-HH/AAPL-CAN/index.htm
        I did a similar sampling of SPY a while back and reached similar conclusions about
        red popcicles, upside-down and right-side up.
     
2/23/2011 SPY Candle Stock Charts: 1993-2011

        WIll this be an exception.  Could all this public buying be correctly bullish now?
        The world-wide market for these AAPL smart phones is astronomical, in theory.
        Since 2009, APPL has been rising more at the openings than at the closes.  

        As long as APPL's OPENING POWER trends this steeply up, calling a top in APPL
        seems crazy.  And seeing a stock like this creates speculative confidence and
        draws in the long absent public to the broader market.  It would seem a bear market
        is unlikely with AAPL running like this, unless it sucks out too much speculative capital
        from stocks elsewhere. 

                                                      Too Much Success?

        There is a Hegelian dialectic here.  Success like AAPL has always breeds carping from the
        envious.  But also some real future problems and a bearish potential.  Such
        problems may be over-looked by the buying crowd in all the excitement.    APPL's
        profitability was huge, something like 28.1% of revenues.  A breakthrough technology
        with such profitability will surely attract compeitors.  How can AAPL protect itself
        from copying by pirates around the world?   And critics will assail APPL, or try to
        it, for hiring so many "slave workers" in China instead of paying decent wages
        in the US.  Go to Yahoo's message board and read the comments there.  


         http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/apple-posts-record-quarterly-profit-sales.html
         http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/business/ieconomy-apples-ipad-and-the-human-costs-for-workers-in-china.html?_r=2&pagewanted=2&hp

       Apple
Passes Exxon As Most Valuable U.S. Company

        Quotes from AAPL's Message Board on Yahoo

"Slave Labor Conditions...   http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=2..."
"
)) I just applied for a Chinese sweatshop job"
UPDATE: Motorola Sues Apple Over New IPhone
We love slave labor!!!
by fat_bags_of_cash [25-Jan-12 10:49 pm

 





===================================================================================== 
                                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

1/24/2012  DJI = 12676  -33  la/ma=1.02  21-dma ROC=.545  P= 559 (-22)  IP21= .196     V= +69   OP= .176

  1/24/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
     124
(+35)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 0
    SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
       
29 (-9)    MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
33 (+3) new highs on NASDAQ.  6 (-1) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   
39 (-17) new highs NYSE    4 (-2) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/24/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ     GLD    SLV     Crude Oil

   1/23/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

    DIA' s    CP is uptrending     A close 1.80  BELOW its opening would bearishly break the CP uptrend
 
  Opening Power is rising.  

  SPY's CP's is uptrending.   It would take a Close
1.82 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising.  

   QQQ
's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.46  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
  
  Opening Power is rising.  

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
  
It would take a close of  1.02 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   
  Opening Power is rising.

                           Reversing Buy B10 and The FED
                  
Should Send DJI up closer to 12900.
                          The Closing Powers Are Stil Rising
             But Opening Powers are breaking their uptrends.

  
Trading the Opening trend-breaks is profitable.  But I reckon it is
     more than twice as profitable to trade with the Peerless signals.  
     I would be concerned, however, if the NYSE A/D Line broke the
     uptrendline shown below.  That would remind us of early 1977
     and mid 2001 where unusally powerful A/D Line uptrends
     were broken after moves which took it up much faster than the DJI.

   See below how the 1976-1977 and 2000-2001 A/D Line uptrend
     breaks did bring serious declines.  In both these cases,
     it should be noted, Peerless gave timely automatic Sells.
     Unless one dismisses the Buy B10, Peerless has given no Sell here.
     January B10s are very reliable.



                   DJIA 2011-2012  - 12900 Being Challenged.
wpeA.jpg (81929 bytes)

  
              DJIA 1977-1978  Steep A/D Line Uptrend Break was Bearish.

wpeDDE.jpg (55236 bytes)

               
DJIA 2001-2002   Steep A/D Line Uptrend Break was Bearish.
wpeDDF.jpg (61636 bytes)

                                       Watch QQQ

   The
QQQ has now reached its July peak. Watch to see if it can breakout.  Even if not
   the NYSE A/D Line's strength should bolster the market.   


wpeB.jpg (96714 bytes)
    

                            LOW PRICED SPECULATION: US BASED GOLD STOCK
                                                       SFEG - Santa Fe Gold
                                  
http://www.santafegoldcorp.com   53 employees
                                   http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=SFEG.OB+Profile
                                   300,000 shares purchase din last 6 months.  None sold.
                                  Insiders own 40%.   Institutional holders own 1%

      SFEG is a very highly accumulated low priced stock which shows lots of Professional
      buying.  It is thin.  So buy it carefully.   Its story is that it now has significant amounts
      of gold going to a refinery and has ample financing, along with steady insider buying.
      Not many stocks show such high levels of Accumulation.   The last one that looked like
      this was QPSA.  It went from $2 to $15.  Compare the chart of SFEG now with QPSA
      back in 2010.  
TigerSoft's Blog SFEG Charts: 2001 to 1-15-2012  
      That SFEG is way below the radar screen of the big boys is very good.  And as
      a gold stock based entirely in the US, it should be a lot safer than companies that must
      deal with populist discontent, threats of nationalization and the necessity of bribing
      politicians.  Its production costs are half what NEM's are per ounce of gold.  So, it may
      be attractive as a take-over bid after a suitable rally, say, to $5 or $10.  

      SFEG is the best looking low priced stock since QPSA at $2.00 on its way to $15.
      Compare it with ANV below, too.  ANV shows how fast and far a US gold stock
      can rise.   

2011-2012  SFEG  multiplied by 100 for better scaling.  The next edition of TigerSoft will
multiply low priced stocks by 100.
wpe9.jpg (83549 bytes)
2010 QPSA    on its way to $15.
wpe8.jpg (85794 bytes)
2019 ANV    on its way to $46 in 2011.
ANV.BMP (1219254 bytes)


            




===================================================================================== 
                                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================


   1/23/2012  DJI = 12709  -12  la/ma=1.025  21-dma ROC=.582  P= 580 (-89)  IP21= .202     V= +82   OP= .288

  1/23/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
       89
(-5)  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 0
    SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
       
38 (-23)    MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
30 (-11) new highs on NASDAQ.  7 (+5) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   
56 (-36) new highs NYSE    6 (-7) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/20/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ     GLD    SLV     Crude Oil

   1/20/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

    DIA' s    CP is uptrending     A close 1.58 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the CP uptrend
 
  Opening Power is rising.  

  SPY's CP's is uptrending.   It would take a Close
1.28 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising.  

   QQQ
's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.42  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
  
  Opening Power is rising.  

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
  
It would take a close of  3.26 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   
  Opening Power is rising.



                          
Reversing Buy B10 and The FED
              
Should Send DJI up closer to 12900.

                          The Closing Powers Are Stil Rising

          
So are the ETFs' Opening Power.  This is the most bullish of configurations. 
                Until the Closing Power breaks its uptrend, there can be no real short-term decline. 
                And until it violates its 21-day ma, there can be no intermediate-term decline.  I would
                let the Buy B10 have every chance to get the DJI past 12900.  At the round number
               13000, we may have problems.  But seasonality is 60% bullish for next two weeks
                and 64% for the next week.

               Bullishly there are 89 stocks whose Closing Powers are making new highs.
               Only 38 show  Closing Power new lows.  Professionals are sticking with the rally.

                  The Rising Market Tide Is Lifting Nearly All Industries.

          
21 one of the 24 Stock Groups and Industries we track have more than 50%
               of their components above their 65-dma.  It is not clear where new downside "leadershp"
               would come from. Probably energy stocks.  Lower energy costs would help the economic
               recovery, as long as they do not signify world-wide Deflation.

   DIAPOP.BMP (1173654 bytes)                              


                          Low Interest Rates Are Bullish
             But 10-Year Rates Did Rise Today above Their 65-Day MA
-TNX.BMP (1219254 bytes)                
         
I doubt if interest rates are about to rise up much.  But watch them...

         
Volume remains very low.  Joe Granville has issued a major sell today because it.  Two years
              ago, Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave fame did the same and has been wrong since.  I think
              that Granville is making a similar mistake, though he is correct that nominal new closing highs often
              bring reversals and that 20 of the 30 individual DJI stocks now show recent new highs that have not
              been confirmed by OBV making a corresponding new high.  He thinks the DJI will fall by 4,000
              points in 2012.  If there is a decline, the rising 65-day ma near 12000 should act as support.
              I think the market's gradual rise means a more sustainablble advance. 

              The very high Accumulation readings on the DJI now (>.25) are two times more associated with a
              continuing rally of more than 3% or a new bull market than a decliue to the lower band and
              a 3% paper loss or less.

                

           High Accumulation (>.25) is Bullish

1    7/24/2009 . DJI moved much higher  Big Loss

2    4/2/2003 . DJI moved much higher  Big Loss

3    2/6/1996    DJI moved much higher.   Big Loss

4    2/6/1991    DJI moved much higher.   Big Loss

5    12/2/1987    DJI fell only to MA and then moved much higher.   Big Loss

6    2/21/1986   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

7    8/13/1979   DJI rallied for a month, rallying 4%.

It then fell below lower band on Sell S9..

8    9/21/1973   DJI rallied for a month, rallying 74%.
It then fell below lower band on Sell S9..

9    11/23/1963   DJI kept rallying   Big Paper Loss

10    11/23/1963   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

11    7/30/1958   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

12    7/8/1954   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

13    8/10/1951   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

14    12/27/1949   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

15    12/14/1949   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

16   10/26/1949   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

17   10/11/1949   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss

16   7/29/1949   DJI kept rallying  Big Paper Loss
  High Accumulation (>.25) is Bearish

1   8/2/2010 .DJI declined to lower band in next month.
No paper loss if DJI shorted
.

2   12/1/2010 .DJI advanced 3% and then fell to lower band in 2 months. 

3   11/22/2002 .
DJI advanced 3% and then fell to lower band.

4   8/20/2001 .DJI
advanced 3% and then  fell below the lower band.

5   10/21/1988  DJI  fell to the lower band. No paper loss.

6   8/30/1987 .DJI
advanced 2% and then  fell below the lower band.

7  9/4/1986 .DJI fell 10%. No Paper Loss.

8  9/21/1973 .DJI fell below the lower band in 6 weeks.
7%Paper Loss.

 

 

 

 

 

 



                                                               Granville's Record

              Granville's creation, OBV, is a cumulative Volume line that goes up or down depending
              on whether prices rise or fall from the previous day.   The weakness here is that OBV is crude,
              because it adds or subtracts 100% of the volume no matter how small or large the daily change is
              or whether prices opened high or low...  Granville can be very good and also very bad in his predictions. 
                  http://www.amazon.com/Granvilles-New-Stock-Market-Profits/dp/0133634086
                                             
                  http://www.amazon.com/Granvilles-Strategy-Market-Timing-Maximum/dp/0133634329/ref=pd_vtp_b_1

              He was completely wrong at the start of the 1982 bull market.  He did not factor in the "artificial" but
              steep Fed drop in interest rates.  He remained bearish for years.  Despite this, respect him and
              his ability to move prices for a few days, as on Janaury 7, 1981.  Granville taught people like me that
              stock market tops could be correctly called.  In this he and Larry Williams were mentors and
              inspirations.   But Old Joe forgets that his famous book. Keys to Stock Market Profits,   actually
              said that the NYSE A/D Line was more important than his own On-Balance-Volume. 

              It is the NYSE A/D Line strength born of very low interest rates that has boosted the
              stock market while Main Street Unemployment remains so high and Hourly Wages so low.              

             See how important the Daily A/D Line was in the 2009-2012 advance.  Look at the Daily A/D
             line in the DJI chart just below.  It is making new highs far ahead of price.   It shows
             a bullish divergence.  This is even clearer when we view the weekly chart of the DJI
             (second chart below).  The Weekly A/D Line has bolstered the bull market, despite the
             many frustrated critics, who cry out that the stock market's rally is "manipulated" and
             made "artificial" by low interest rates and deficit spending.  Of course, the stock market
             is manipulated.   This is nothing new.  Bull markets are launched by the Fed as much as
             by inventions like cars and the internet.  See my discussion of the role of the Fed in 1970
             and 1982.  http://www.tigersoft.com/tiger-blogs/8-18-2003/index.htm
             Bernanke and the FED are supposed to, by their 1913 charter, bolster the banks in
             hard times and reduce business cycles with monetary policy.  (My complaint is that they
             do this secretly, play favorites and impose NO lending conditions on the big banks.)

             Tea-Party people, I think, are the tools of those who want who own polluting industries, like
             the Koch Brothers do, who do not want to spend money on air scrubbers or abide by laws
             to protect waterways from their paper mill spills.  The Kochs are eager to buy Wisconsin
             publicly owned utilities as cheaply as possible.

             The larger fact is that the Government is 1/3 of the entire US economy.  The Bush years show
             reducing regulations and putting more money into the Swiss bank accounts of the top  0.2%
             creates very few more decent jobs in the US.  Quite the contrary.  Worse, it produced a
             Bubble of over-speculation in in mortgage debt, housing, energy and many stocks.
             The 30,000 lobbyists in Washington DC prove that corporations need and want government
             help.  They want cushy government contracts.  

wpe8.jpg (80729 bytes)
    
NOTE: The B13 has been added because of the Santa Claus  rally Buy we discussed ont he Hotline.  This B13
                     will be part of the next release.  If breadth is improving, the B13 can  reverse a Sell S9.  If it is not improving,
                     as in December 2007, the Buy B13 is suppressed.


                                                         WEEKLY DJIA

wpeD86.jpg (62004 bytes)

===================================================================================== 
                                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

1/20/2012  DJI = 12720   +97   la/ma=1.028  21-dma ROC=.922  P= 669 (+105)  IP21= .253     V= +116   OP= .392

                          
Reversing Buy B10 and The FED
               Send DJI up closer to 12900.


                                              
                              We are entering the Year of The Dragon.
                              How Did The DJIA Behave in Years of The Dragon?
                                   Jan 1904-Feb 1905  Russo-Japan War              DJI rose from 36.4 to 55.9 (approx.)
                                   Jan 31, 1916-Jan 31, 1917 Fire Dragon   WWI     DJI rose from 90.6 to 95.4
                                  Jan 23, 1928-Feb 9, 1929 Earth Dragon                  DJI rose from 200 to 301.50
                                  Feb 8, 1940-Jan 26, 1941 Metal Dragon  WWII DJI fell from 145.50 to 128.50
                                  Jan 27, 1952-Feb 13, 1953 Water Dragon  Korean War   DJI rose from 273.40 to 283.10
                                  Feb 13, 1964- Feb 1, 1965  Wood Dragon  Vietnam War DJI rose from 773.10 to 903.70
                                  Jan 31, 1976-Feb 17, 1977  Fire Dragon  DJI fell from 975.28 to 943.73
                                  Feb 17, 1988-Feb 5, 1989 Earth Dragon  DJI rose from 2001 to 2331
                                  Feb 5. 2000-Jan 23, 2001 Metal Dragon DJI fell from 10964 to 10650
                            Based on this, the odds are 2:1 the DJI will rally.  If it does fall, a 3% to 5% decline
                            would be in line with the experience of Years of the Dragon in 1940-41, 1976-77 and 2000-01.

                                        2012_dragon_overview.png (138829 bytes)

wpe8.jpg (73814 bytes)

       1/20/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
       94
(-29  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 0 (
-2)      Bullish Super-2011 Stocks and SUPER2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
        
61 (-1)    MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
30 (-11) new highs on NASDAQ.  7 (+5) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   
56 (-36) new highs NYSE    6 (-7) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/20/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ     GLD    SLV     Crude Oil

   1/20/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

DIA' s    CP is uptrending     A close 1.78 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the CP uptrend
 
Opening Power is rising.

  SPY's C's is uptrending.   It would take a Close 1.36 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising.  

   QQQ's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.52  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   
Opening Power is rising.

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
  
It would take a close of  2.66 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   
  Opening Power is rising.

   1/20/2012      BUY B10s Do Successfully Reverse Earlier Sells           Narrative of Hotline 

                         I am impressed with how the DJI keeps rising despite the bearish seasonality for the last
                         week.   Now the historical seasonality turns bullish.  Since 1965, the DJI has risen 64.4%
                         of the time in the week following January 22nd.  Over the next ten days, it has risen
                         1% on average per year.

                         Chasing is difficult. I realize.  But it is necessary, especially in January, to stick with the
                         trend.   The four earlier January B10s average gains of 15%.  The Closing Powers are
                         rising.   A move to a new recovery high at 12900 seems highly likely.  Fighting the Feds-
                         Obama-Big Bank Financial Junta at this time is risky.  Interest rates are low because
                         these people want a continued economic recovery to stay in power.  Even Day Traders
                         are buying at the opening.  There is more upside potential after the opening than risk.
                         Their shift is shown in the breakout by the Tiger Day Traders' Tool.   This is reliably
                         bullish.  
wpe8.jpg (65610 bytes)

              Only 3 of the industry groups we follw still shows a plurality of stocks below their 65-day ma.
              One is Food Commodities, which means inflation is not a threat to the Fed' low interest rates'
              policy.   Another are Gold Stocks.  As these rise with financial uncertainty and gathering inflation,
              this is a bullish sign.  We should keep an eye on interest rates, however.  A rise in them would
              drop the many stocks and bonds on the NYSE that are rising because the Fed has promised
              very low rates until 2013.  Overseas markets have turned up, too. 82% of the 60 foreign ETFs
              that we use to build the Tiger ETFs' chart below are above their 65-day ma.  FXI - the Xinhua China
              25 is the most bullish, as ranked by Tiger.  Even Europe's IEV has risen back to its 149-day ma.
     .        The biggest gainers among ETFs for the last 65 trading days have reached resistance levels.
              The DJI-30 and the QQQ will probably have to lead the advance now, if it is to continue. I would
              expect the DJI to reach a nominal new high near 12900.  If it moves up in relative isolation, there
              will probably be a Peerless Sell signal there.


                         EWZ - Brazil +15%  at falling 200-day ma
                                Peerless and Brazilian Stocks
                         FXI - Xinhua +15% (China) at falling 200-day ma
                         ILF   - Latin America +11% at falling 200-day ma
                               Peerless and Latin American Stocks
                         EWW - Mexico  10%  at falling 200-day ma
                              Profitably Trading Mexican Stocks
              See   Which Country ETFs Have Worked Best with Peerless Automatic Buys and Sells since 1996?
                       $1,000 would have become $100,000 in 15 years.



wpe9.jpg (59577 bytes)

     FXI - Xinhua +15% (China) at falling 200-day ma
FXI.BMP (1920054 bytes)
     Europe's IEV
IEV.BMP (1920054 bytes)
     EWZ - Brazil +15%  at falling 200-day ma
EWZ.BMP (1920054 bytes)
     ILF  - Latin America +11% at falling 200-day ma
ILF.BMP (1920054 bytes)
     EWW - Mexico   10%  at falling 200-day ma
EWW.BMP (1920054 bytes)


===================================================================================== 
                                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
1/19/2012 
DJI = 12624   +45   la/ma=1.024  21-dma ROC=.734  P= 564 (+10)  IP21= .188     V= +84   OP= .286


             Reversing Buy B10 Reigns Now.
            Volume could certainly be higher, but breadth is good
            and the Closing Power trends are now rising.  The DJI
            does face generally bearish seasonality for the next week.
            Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 40% of the time in the
            week after January 19th. Our Stocks' Hotline is more than 2:1
            bullishly hedged.
    
                            wpe9.jpg (10699 bytes)

1/19/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        1
23 (+13)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks  Bullish.

                 2 (
0)      Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
         
62 (-3)  MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
41 (-16) new highs on NASDAQ.  2 (-5) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   
92 (+6) new highs NYSE    13 (4) new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/19/2012 GRAPHS    ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY      TigerQQQ     GLD    SLV     Crude Oil

   1/19/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

  DIA' s    CP is uptrending     A close 1.02 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the CP uptrend
 
Opening Power is rising.

  SPY's C's is uptrending.    It would take a Close 1.19 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising.  

   QQQ's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.46  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   
Opening Power is rising.

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
   it would take a close of 
1.28 BELOW the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   
  Opening Power is rising.

    1/19/2012      BUY B10s Do Successfully Reverse Earlier Sells           Narrative of Hotline 
    
      We have to work with the trend, not fight it.   Professionals have decided to buy.  The Closing Power
      downtrends have been broken and we now see uptrends. 
DJI breakouts past flat resistance work out
      profitabloy as long trades when the Closing Power downtrends are also broken, even where there has
      been a Closing Power bearish divergence from Opening Power, as shown by Sell S7s.
  See the
      cases of the DIA at the end of 1999 and in November 2005 and in the February 13, 2006.

                          DIA's late 1999 CP recovery and breakout
DIA9900.BMP (1017654 bytes)         
               DIA's late 2005 and early 2006 CP recovery and breakout
wpeD.jpg (85336 bytes)

       Peerless Buy B10s were created to avoid being short in markets that breakout to the upside.  They are
       reliably bullish.

      There have been 4 Buys B10s that reversed an earlier Peerless Sell.  They averaged gains of +}22%
      apiece when the DJI was next reversed.  January B10s are also particularly bullish, averaging
      gains of +15%. 

      Do not fight the Fed (or the Wall Street-Obama-Fed Financial Junta).  The Fed clearly wants to to keep
      interest rates very low. And notice that the Dollar is not collapsing and inflation is not spinning wildly out
      of control.  Add to that, joblessness is ever so gradually falling.  Even the world economy is turning up, The
      Tiger Index of
Foreign ETFs (below) has rallied back to its falling 65-dma.   We will want to watch this.
      If it can keep moving up, it will suggest the the world markets can outpace the deflationary policies
      in the UK, France and Germany.  The
Big Banks also have turned up.  If they were about to be hit
      hard by debt defaults in Europe, as some doomdayers keep saying, I think they would not have rallied
      this far and risen above their falling 200-day ma.   And most important, it's very hard to have a bear
      market or Depression when
Home Building stocks are rising and have gotten back above their 200-day
      ma.  The 200-day ma is very significant.  It was the best noving average to have watched in the 1930-1933
      Bear Market-Depression.  Ususaly when the 21-day is breached, the 50- or 65-dma is reached.  If these
      are breached, the 149-day (30-wk ma) is tested.  And if this is bested, the 200-day ma is soon reached.

                 Tiger Index of Foreign ETFs
wpeA.jpg (58046 bytes)
                   Tiger Index of Big Banks
wpeB.jpg (62449 bytes)
                 Tiger Index of Home Building
wpeC.jpg (58213 bytes)


       

============================================================== 
                                   OLDER HOTLINES
==============================================================

1/18/2012  DJI = 12579 +97   la/ma=1.023   21-dma ROC=.69  P= 553 (+46)  IP21= .125    V= +95   OP= .107

        Reversing Buy B10 Today.  Excellent A/D Line but volume was low.
      12800-12900 is the next target.
wpe9.jpg (70669 bytes)
wpeA.jpg (23401 bytes)

1/18/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        110 (+42)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   Bullish.

                 2 (-1)      Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
         65 (-57)  MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks                      
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
57 (+21) new highs on NASDAQ.   7 (-12) new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   86 (+27) new highs NYSE    9 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/18/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude

1/18/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

  DIA' s   CP is uptrending    A close  0.87 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the CP uptrend
 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's C's is uptrending.   It would take a Close 1.12 BELOW the Opening to break the uptrend
  
Opening Power is rising. 

   QQQ's CP is uptrending.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.46  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   
Opening Power is rising.

   GLD's CP broke its down-trendline and is considered uptrending.
   it would take a close of 
1.22 ABOVE the Opening to break this CP-UP-trendline.   

  Opening Power is rising.

      1/18/2012                                    Narrative of Hotline 

      Today brought a Buy B10 from Peerless.  This repepresents a breakout and close above well-tested,
      flat resistance that goes back at least 40 trading days.   The P-Indicator and current Accumulation
      Index must be quite positive.  See http://tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-Buy-B10.htm    Automatic B10s average gains
      in the DJI of about 10% when next reversed by an automatic Sell  There have been 4 January Buy B10s.
      These averaged a DJI gain of +15.9% at the time of the next Peerless Sell. See the FIRST TABLE
below.

      It is best to accept the small loss now in the short of DIA and any short sales whose Closing Power has
      broken out above its downtrendline or above the 65-dma.
Following our suggestion, one would have
      shorted on Monday's opening at 125.04 and closed at today's close at 125.62.  Consider buying the most
      bullish (as ranked by the Power Ranker) of the Home-Building, Biotechs, Pipe-Line and Super-2011
      Stocks.

            HOME BUILDING:  HD 44.88  NVR 752.7
            BIOTECHS:    PCYC  16.39  BMRN 36.03  ELGX  12.48
            PIPELINES: MWE 56.39, WES  39.28
            SUPER 2011:  PCYC   16.39, AKRX  11.56, HCCI  20.86

     With the Buy B10, we must expect the general market to rise further.  Buy B10s have 4 times reversed a   
     Peerless Sell Signal, like now.  Only one brought a paper loss.  All of these brought significant gains.
     Three of the four brought gains of more than +17%.    See the SECOND TABLE below and the charts of  
     these four cases.

    FIRST TABLE             JANUARY B10s were all profitable.

         1/18/2012  DJI = 12579 
        
la/ma          21-dmaROC  P-I Change               IP21       V-I      Opct.
          1.023             .69          P= 553 (+46)
    .125    +95    .107 (low)

1/13/1967  835.13 +4.0%
    la/ma   21-dmaROC  P-I Change   IP21   V-I    Opct. 
    1.039  .273    135  21   .07    5   .221
 Bottom formation B10 after a Bear Market.   DJI rose immediately.  No paper loss. 
   ... Reversed at 968.49 on 3/16/67 by S12
1/7/1976   898.69 +12.3% 
    la/ma     21-dmaROC  P-I Change   IP21   V-I   Opct. 
    1.054    1.124   286   35  .20   2   .536      
 DJI rose immediately  .. Reversed at 1009.21 on 3/24/76 by S9  No paper loss. 
1/12/1989  2222.32  +24.7% 
    la/ma     21-dmaROC  P-I Change   IP21   V-I     Opct. 
    1.023   .454    118   21  .078   11   .185       
 DJI rose immediately  ... No paper loss...Reversed at 2771.09 on 10/4/89 by S9
1/31/1991  2736.39  +22.6% 
   la/ma     21-dmaROC  P-I   Change  IP21   V-I    Opct.
   1.058    .58     143   33  .116  12   .218
   DJI rose immediately  ... Reversed at 3353.76 on 4/15/92 by S9

    SECOND TABLE       Buy B10s have profitably reversed 4  Peerless Sells.
     

       Sell S8     5/28/1945    164       -1.0% On-Going Bull Market  
       BUY B10     8/24/1945    169.9    +17.2% 

       SELL  S9     1/7/58      447.8     -2.4%  Bear Market Bottom
       BUY   B10    2/4/58      458.7    +41.7%

       SELL  S2     9/3/68      900.36    -3.9%  On-Going Bull Market   
       BUY   B10    9/30/68     935.79    +4.5%
       Sell  S9V    8/12/96    5794.98    -2.3%  On-Going Bull Market 
       Buy   B10    9/13/96    5838.52   +17.0%  
                                Buy B10     8/24/1945    169.9   +17.2%
wpe8.jpg (60391 bytes)
                                Buy   B10    2/4/58      458.7   +41.7%
wpe9.jpg (65048 bytes)
                                Buy  B10    9/30/68     935.79    +4.5%
wpeA.jpg (58213 bytes)
                                Buy    B10    9/13/96    5838.52   +17.0% 
wpeB.jpg (62585 bytes)
  



============================================================== 
                                   OLDER HOTLINES
==============================================================
1/17/2012  DJI = 12482 +60   la/ma=1.018   21-dma ROC=.641  P= 507 (+96)  IP21= .068    V= +80   OP= .118

1/17/2011        BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        68 (-10)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

             NEW  3    Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
         112 (+35)  MINCP stocks    Bearish MINCP Stocks        Bearish.                     
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
36 new highs on NASDAQ.   19   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   59 new highs NYSE   19 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/17/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude

1/17/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

  DIA' s   CP's is flat     A close  0.53 ABOVE its opening would be a CP breakout.
                                 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP broke its uptrend.   It would take a Close 1.00 ABOVE the Opening to
   restore the CP uptrend.   
Opening Power is rising. 

   QQQ's CP bullishly still above its UPTrendline.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.17  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   
Opening Power is rising.

   GLD's CP longer-term trading    DOWN-trendline is being challenged.
   it would take a close of only
0.19 ABOVE the Opening to break  this CP-DOWN-trendline.   

  Opening Power is rising.

      1/17/2012                                    Narrative of Hotline 

                                    Operative Peerless Signal is still a Sell S15.

                   S15s have always been profitable.  The biggest Paper loss selling short the DJI with one
                   was only 3%.  See http://tigersoft.com/PeerInst/-SellS15.htm

               A turning down now by prices would show that the Resistance
               the DJI has neen reached and the Bearish Seasonality for the next two weeks
               has won out.  Unless the DJI can close clearly above the resistance line,
               at 12550, the risks now are greater than the upside potentia.  The number
               of stocks making CLosing Power 52 week lows is almost twice the number
               making new highs.  This remains a defensive market.  Utility stocks,
               Pipeline stocks, Biotechs and Bonds are the favored groups, along with
               the exceptionally high performance stocks of 2011 (SUPER2011).

                   I thnk it is clearly bearish that IBM, the highest priced and most heavily weighted
                   DJI-30 stock shows a head/shoulders pattern with confirming red Distribution on
                   the right shoulder.
                                                                                        IBM Head/Shoulders, S9, S7s
wpeCEB.jpg (81711 bytes)

                   Shorting the bearish MINCP stocks and buying some of the Bullish MAXCP stocks
                   has been our strategy, rather than shorting DIA, until this Monday's opening, when
                   shorting was recommended of DIA.   Hold the shorts for now.   The Openings have
                   been carrying the market higher, not the trading after the opening.  This past year
                   has been unusual in that.  Better gains this past year have generally been had waiting
                   for the Opening Power to break its uptrend rather than CLosing Power uptrend-breaks. 
                   The Opening Power uptrend is still rising, but its steep uptrend is becoming jagged and was briefly
                   broken Friday. 

                                                     DIA's Rising Wedge Pattern is Bearish.
                                                     Weak Closing Power and Rising Opening Power

                   A
DIA
close more than 0.53 above the Opening would be a CP upside breakout.
DIAEX1.BMP (1240854 bytes)
                   Selling when the Opening Power Broke its Trend-lines was profitable this past year.
DIA1.BMP (1034454 bytes)

                   Usually, weak closes and strong openings have meant Public Speculation or Overseas
                   Buying of US Stocks.  Ordinarily this is bearish.  But not always.  I have mentioned that
                   I believe that an Obama-Fed-Wall Street Financial Junta exists and may be buying Index Futures
                   in overseas trading before the Opening to try to keep the rally alive.   This may be a new
                  version of "Don't Fight The Fed".  Obama desperately needs a higher stock market in 2012
                  to continue to get Wall Street backing in our Money-Is-Everything Sytem now.  And he
                  hopes that there will be enough trickle down jobs created thereby to get the millions who
                  are marginally employed to turn out and vote for him as they did in 2008.
     
                   Besides this, we do not want to be stubborn.  .Professionals who do their buying mostly
                   after the Opening in NY have been known to switch from bearish to bullish when
                   they see that the Openings are just too strong to fight.  The CLosing Power now for DIA and
                   SPY have broken their lengthy downtrends in this rally, but have not made upside
                   breakouts from their narrow trading range.  If they do this, I would assume that the
                   Professionals have switched to buying and we should, too.  For now, the odds are 2:1
                   that there will be a DJI decline, based on earlier cases when we saw such sizeable
                   divergence between a rising Opening Powe and falling Closing Power in the major market
                   ETFs.   These divergences produce Tiger Stock Sell S7s.  See the study a few days ago.

                   I have emphasized the four year Presidential Cycle.  I think we should again look
                   back at how the stock market has behaved with a Democrat in the White House
                   running for re-election.  That means:
                                FDR in January 1936   --- Breakout without B10.
                                Truman in January 1948 --- Breakdown Sell S10s
                                LBJ in January 1964 --- Breakout without B10.
                                Carter in January 1980 - Multiple Sells and False Breakout
                                Clinton in January 1996. --- Breakout without B10.
                   
Price breakouts in January and February of the Presidential Election year
                    that did not bring Peerless Sell Signals went significantly higher. 
In early 1948 the
                    market broke down rather than up.  In February 1980, it made a false breakout
                    comoplete with multiple Sells. To me this suggests that
a close above 12550 that
                    does not bring a new Peerless Sell should be taken as showing that the market
                    is too strong to stay short DIA.

               FDR in January 1936
DATA3536.BMP (1034454 bytes)
              
               Truman in January 1948

wpe8.jpg (63072 bytes)
              
               LBJ in January 1964 (although one could also look at 1968)

wpe9.jpg (57133 bytes)
               
               Carter in February 1980

wpeA.jpg (65696 bytes)
               
               Clinton in January 1996.

DATA9596.BMP (1022454 bytes)


=====================================================
                                      OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================

1/13/2012  DJI = 12422 -49   la/ma=1.016   21-dma ROC=.456  P= 411 (+18)  IP21= .063    V= +52   OP= .012

                   Sell S15, Failure to Surpass Resistance and Bearish Seasonality
               Short the DIA.  Note how weak the Tiger Day Traders' Tool Looks.

               The risks now are greater than the upside potential.  Sell some
               of the long hedged positions, too.  Natural Gas Stocks' Breakdowns
               offer short sales.  However, a DJI close above 12560 would have
               to be considered a flat-top breakout.  This would require closing
               out the short DIA position. At this point, the DJI Futures are up 52,
               at 12462.

DATA.BMP (1022454 bytes)
                  
                   The DJI started to fall back from resistance and then recovered most of what it lost.   This is
                   impressive behavior given, first, the escalating tensions between Iran and US and Israel and, two,
                   new threats to European bankers from Greece. We have not yet gone short SPY and have
                   been hedged instead.   But I think a decline is now setting up.  Traders should short DIA.  If the
                   DJI cannot get past resistance, it must seach for support and decline.  Seasonality is bearish for
                   the week after January 15th. The DJI only has risen 1/3 of the time over the next 5 trading days
                   since 1965 and only 51.1% of the time over the next two weeks.
 

                  The Tiger Day Traders' Tool is breaking down to new lows.  This is distinctly bearish.
DIADTT.BMP (1137654 bytes)

                  The main problem with shorting the index funds now is that the Closing Powers are starting
                   to break their downtrends.  It's too early to say that t hey have turned up, however.
                   Weak openings that may occur now with the Opening Power uptrend-line broken may not
                   be followed by weaker NY Closings.  A shallow retreat to the rising 65-day ma just
                   above 12000 is all I can expect at this stage.


DIA22.BMP (1140550 bytes)

                   See further below how we use whether the Opening Power and Closing Power are above or
                   below their 21-day ma to improve trading results.


wpeC90.jpg (72091 bytes)

  1/13/2011      
BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        78 (+23)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

             NEW  3  (-1) Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs   
   
         77 (+24)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks                            
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
20 new highs on NASDAQ.   11   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   55 new highs NYSE   12 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/13/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude

1/13/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

  DIA' s  CP's is flat     A close  0.15 ABOVE its opening would be a CP breakout.
   
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP is flat. It would take a Close 0.20 ABOVE the Opening to achive an upside CP breakout.
  
Opening Power is rising.  

   QQQ's CP bullishly still above its UPTrendline.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.10  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   Opening Power is rising.



   GLD's CP longer-term trading   DOWN-trendline is being challenged.
   it would take a close of only
0.15 ABOVE the Opening to break  this CP-DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is rising again.


       1/13/2012                                   Narrative of Hotline 

                             

           WHAT MARKET MAKERS KNOW

             A cutomer sent me a Zero-Hedge Link  showing the "profitability of being long Gold in the overnight
             session and shorting it during the day".  We have these statistics available using Peercomm + Charts 2011
             + GO1600 (Gold Perpetual contract) + Ind.3 + Tiger Basis of Move.  Whereas, they are taling about an
             annualized gain of 43% a year, in theory where commisssions and slippage are not factors, we can achieve
             a gain twice as large using the trend of the 21-day ma of Opening and Closing Power to decide whether
             to go long or short.  See the Tiger chart below for just the last 12 months.  The results here are typical.

             Bigger gains are made with individual Gold and Silver Stocks.  See NEM, PAAS and ANV.
             Compare these results with DIA and QQQ, too.

             The problem of slippage and commissions would have to be factored in before using this approach.
             Market makers are in the best possible position to use this approach.  Commissions are zero and
             the slippage they can strictly limit.  Tiger Users have to find trading vehicles with bigger gains than
             the ones shown by Gold or DIA below.

              In the attached chart GO1620, we see a breakdown that improves the results.

                           Openings above its 21-day ma
                                 148   X .002  =  .296 or 29.6%
                                  In this case we would go LONG at the "Close" in NY and Sell at OPening in NY for
                                Gain of  +29.6%

                           Openings below its 21-day ma
                                  88 X -.001 =  - .088 or -8.1%
                                  In this case we would go SHORT at the "Close" in NY and Cover at OPening in NY for
                                 Gain of  +8.1%

                           Closings above its 21-day ma
                                  139 X .003 =      .417 = 41.7%
                                   In this case we would go LONG at the Opening in NY and Sell the position
                                   at the "Close" for
                                  Gain of  +41.7%

                             Closings below its 21-day ma
                                   97 X -.003 =  - .291 = -29.1%
                                   In this case we would go SHORT at the Opening in NY and Cover the position
                                   at the "Close" for
                                  Gain of  29.1%
------------------------------------------
                         Sum =   over-night gains + NY session gains
                       Sum = (29.6 + 8.1%)  + (41.7% +29.1%)
                       Sum = 37.7 + 70.8%
                          
Sum of Gains = +108.5%


.GOLD PERPETUAL CONTRACT  - B21 and S21s shown when both Openings and Closings are above their ma
and vice verse. See the statistics at bottom of chart that TigerSoft generates.  The Summation stats will have to be
programmed.
GOLD.gif (16415 bytes)

   NEM - Gold Stock
NEM.BMP (1159254 bytes)
   PAAS - Silver Stock
PAAS.BMP (1164054 bytes)
   ANV - Gold Stock
ANV.BMP (1180854 bytes)
   QQQ
QQQ.BMP (1920054 bytes)



=====================================================================
                                               OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================

1/12/2012  DJI = 12471 +22    la/ma=1.022   21-dma ROC=.439  P= 392  (116)  IP21= -.007    V= +43   OP= .004

  1/12/2011      
BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        55 (+4)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

             NEW  4  (0 change) Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs         
                             
   
         86 (+24)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      Bearish.                            
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.

                      
46 new highs on NASDAQ.   11   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   57 new highs NYSE    6 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/12/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude

1/12/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  
 
   DIA' s  CP's IS now above its CO down-trend-line     A close  0.10 BELOW its opening would restore the
    CP DOWNtrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP's minor UPtrend-line is restored.  It would take a Close 0.26 ABOVE the Opening to achive an
   upside CP breakout.

   QQQ's CP bullishly still above its UPTrendline.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.08  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   Opening Power is rising.



   GLD's CP longer-term trading   DOWN-trendline is being challenged.
   it would take a close of only
0.23 ABOVE the Opening to break  this CP-DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is rising again.


       1/12/2012                                                Narrative of Hotline 


       NYSE A/D Line is streaking to new highs ahead of the DJI.  This is bullish short-term.
        But the DJI needs to penetrate the resistance line it has reached.  S15s are very reliable,
        but can bring as much as a 3% paper loss.  A reversal down tomorrow would show the resistance
        has overcome the low volume buyers. The rising 65-dma as 12000 would be expected support.
        Traders will be nervous about holding positions over the weekend with US-Israeli tensions with Iran so high


                       HOW LONG CAN THE MARKET RALLY AGAINST AN S15
                                  BASED ON RISING OPENINGS ALONE?

                    
       If the DJI can breakout above the resistance it has now reached.
       it can advance perhaps 2.5% more and for 6-7 weeks more.  Read the details below....
       We remajn hedged, but we are not yet short the major market ETFs despite the Peerless Sells.. A reversal
       from resistance tomorrow would probably get me to advise shorting DIA.  But let's await market
       action.... 

       The biggest paper loss in the case of past Sell S15s was 3%. In our case the Sell S15 occurred
        with the DJI at 12418.42 on January 4th.   The DJI is now 53 points and only 1/2% higher than where
        it was when the Sell S15 occurred.  The could move up another 250 points and tag the 12500 resistance
        and still be within the range of past S15s.   

                       TIGER SELL S7s SHOW EXTREME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
                  RISING OPENING POWER AND CLOSING POWER


        The Opening Power for the DIA (and the other major market ETFs) has been rising since November
        30th even though the Closing Power has been falling.  For the last 30 trading days we have seen this
        widening divergence.  The divergence causes Sell S7s to appear.   A cluster of two weeks or more
        Sell S7s is usually, but not always bearish.   The ratio of significant declines to significant rallies
        after a cluster of consecutive Sell S7s is 10:3.  See the tables below and the charts that are linked to.
        You can see that there are in 4 cases the cluster of S7s lasted between 7 and 13 weeks.

DIANOJA.BMP (1017654 bytes)

        Sell S7s can be placed on the DIA chart using the first choice under Ind-3 to show  this divergence.  
        Our software measures the divergence in a way that permits comparisons with the past.  Tiger calculates
        how far from its 65-day low to its 65-day high are PRice, Opening Power and  Closing Power are. 
        That is the meaning of the terms 65day-PR%, 65day-OP% and 65-dayCP%.


wpeC2B.jpg (88009 bytes)

        The  values of each are shown on all initial TigerSoft stock charts.  For the DIA those numbers are:
                     65day-PR% = 100% (Price is at its 100-day high)
                     65day-OP% =  99% (Opening Power is 99% of the way up from its 100-day low to its high)
                     65-dayCP% =
19.9% (Closing Power is 19.9% of the way up from its 100-day low to its high)
        We measure the divergence between the CLosing Power Pct and the Opening Power Pct.
                     CP%-Pr% = -80.1% (19.9%-99%)
        Tiger B7s show when there is a bullish CP%-Pr% divergence greater than +.37 and
        Tiger S7s show when there is a bearish CP%-Pr% divergence with a value below -.37.

    STRINGS OF CONSECUTIVE DAY SELL S7s ON DIA: 1998-2011

  
In 10 of 13 cases, the DJI fell at least 5% before it rallied more than 4%.
   
In 4 of 13 cases, the cluster of consecutive Sell S7s lasted 7 to 13 weeks.
     
#1    5/6/98-6/10/98  (5 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%  
5/14/98  1.009 -.026      .042  -.33   -.33
DIA fell 5%, from 91.81 to 86 (149-day ma)
----------------------------------------------------
#2  6/25/98-7/29/98   (5 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
7/15/98  1.029 .864       .153  .411    -.72
DIA fell 20%
----------------------------------------------------
#3   6/9/99-9/14/99  (13 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
8/24/99  1.037 .493       .161  .065  -.43
DIA fell 10% from peak on 8/25/99
----------------------------------------------------
#4  11/2/99-1/27/00   (12 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
11/17/00 1.047 +1.294     .07   .615  -.71 small decl and rise
1/14/00  1.032 .549       .022  .47    -.56 top
DIA rallied from 108 to 114 and then fell 17%
----------------------------------------------------
#5  5/8/02-5/23/02  (3 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
5/16/02  1.025 .091      -.031 -.037  -.41
BEAR MARKET FOLLOWS.
----------------------------------------------------
#6  7/31/03-9/2/03  (8 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
8/21/03  1.02  .306       .103  .284   -.56
8/22/03  1.006 .154      -.028  .136  -.73
After shallow decline to rising 65-dma, Bull market resumes.
----------------------------------------------------
#7  1/31/05-2/17/05  (3 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
2/15/05  1.024 .341      -.017  .099  -.45
3% DIA rally, then 7% decline
----------------------------------------------------
#8  12/9/05-3/2/06 (12 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
1/30/06  1.007 .251       .099  .288  -.35
65-DMA Acted as SUPPORT.  Bull market resumes. Better to wait for new S9.
----------------------------------------------------
#9  8/14/06-9/5/06   (3 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
8/16/06  1.02  .546       .138  .066   -.73
9/5/06   1.017 .32        .145  .143   -.43
Bull market resumes.
----------------------------------------------------
#10 9/27/07-10/19/07  (4 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
10/9/07  1.028 .839       .188  .218  -.37
10% DECLINE by 11/26/07
----------------------------------------------------
#11 6/9/08-6/18/08  (2 weeks)
          la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
6/17/08  .981  -.61      -.192 -.068  -.48
SEVERE BEAR MARKET FOLLOWED
----------------------------------------------------
#12 12/22/09-1/6/10  (2 weeks)
         la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
1/6/10  1.018  -.288      .058  .322  -.36
7% Decline 
----------------------------------------------------
#13 4/20/11-5/24/11  (5 weeks)
         la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
5/2/11  1.022   .325      .142  .24    -.26
Top and 7% DIA DECLINE
----------------------------------------------------
#14 12/5/11-1/12/12  (6 weeks, so far.)
         la/ma 21-dma-roc IP21  OPct   CP%-PR%
1/12/12 1.031   .503     -.026  .225  -.75
==========================================================


=====================================================================
                                               OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================

1/11/2012  DJI = 12449    la/ma=1.022   21-dma ROC=.259  P= 275  P= -87 IP21= -.019    V= +8   OP= -.088

1/11/2011       BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        51 (-3)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

             NEW  4  (-4) Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs         
                             
   
         62 (-18)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                      
35 new highs on NASDAQ.   10   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   36 new highs NYSE    6 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/11/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude

1/11/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:

  The Openings' CP uptrend is intact.  The CLosing Powers have not established a clear trend. 
 
   DIA' s  CP's IS now above its CO down-trend-line     A close  0.10 BELOW its opening would restore the
    CP DOWNtrend. 
Opening Power is rising.



   SPY's CP RESTORED its UPtrend-line.  It would take a Close 0.85 Below  the Opening to VIOLATE the
   CP UPtrendline.


   QQQ's CP bullishly still above its UPTrendline.       
   It will take a close of more than
0.05  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
   Opening Power is rising.




   GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
   it would take a close of more than
0.78 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.

                                                                 Narrative of Hotline

                   You can see below that the DJI has now rearched well-tested resistance.  This invites
                   profit-taking.   But so far, there are so signs of a reversal.  Even though, the DJI fell today,
                   there were 344 more up than down on the NYSE and the NASDAQ and SPY rose. 
                   Look below at the Tiger of the chart of NASDAQ-100.  It is on the verse of a flat topped
                   breakout.   It uses volume x price to weight stocks, rather than capitalization
                   as the QQQ does. By itself, a breakout here would be bullish, but we show a Peerless S15 and our
                   major market ETF charts show three factors which are usually bearish:
                                    1) low volume recenlty on the rally.
                                    2) red Distribution and
                                    3) Falling Closing Powers.  
                   See these in the Tiger chart of the QQQ below or DIA or SPY.

                   The stock market may continue to rally for the reasons mentioned here, but the potential
                   for a reversal now is also high.  Accordingly, our Stocks's Hotline is about evenly hedged,
                   long and short.  Until we see a much clearer break-down by the CLosing Power, a break
                   in the Opening Power Uptrend and the NYSE A/D Line, I would respect the potential for the
                   DJI to breakout above the resistance line it has reached and thereafter run to 12800.   So,
                   I would not short DIA, SPY or QQQ. 

                   The markets have shown great strength given the worsening Middle East situation.  But
                   it will not be able to do this if fighting breaks out.  Without the US President acting as a
                   peace-maker, violence is likely to escalate into war there again.  Remember that an
                   assassination started World War I.                

                               "The Strait of Hormuz is the greatest choke point in the world." NY Times.             

                   In December, Iran warned the US and Europe that any embargo imposed on Iran's oil exports
                   as a way to rein in its nuclear program would get Iran to close the Sraits of Hormuz.   Today a
                   fourth Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated.  The US and Israel deny any hand
                   in the killing of the scientist.  The US also denies that the sending of a second aircraft carrier
                   group to the Arabian Sea is related to escalating tensions with Iran.  If the CIA and the Mossad
                   were involved, and they are the logical suspects, the truth will come out and Iran will be
                   angrier, more vengence-minded and more determined than ever to be on an equal atomic
                   weapons' footing with Israel. Iran will present its evidence against Israel in this to the United Nations.
   
                   The problem, as I see it, is that the US has put itself in the position of protecting the
                   Israeli right-wing Likud Party and its leader.  These are the people who expand |Jewish settlements
                   in formerly Arab lands and are trying to supress public protests about this.  They consider peace
                   with the Arabs unsafe and impossible.  They are even being accuseed of turning Israel into a dictatorship.
                   So much so, that the head of the Mossad resigned and called Netanyahu "
reckless and irresponsible...
                   Netanyahu's decisions are driven by the same right-wing neocons that drive the U.S.
"
                        
Benjamin Netanyahu 'turning Israel into a dictatorship' - Telegraph 
                         Israel government 'reckless and irresponsible' says ex-Mossad chief
                         Ex-Mossad Chief: Radical-Right Jews More Dangerous than Iran

                   wpeC.jpg (10162 bytes)
                  

                   This situation seems likely to worsen and become still more dangerous.  Whereas Pres Carter
                   and Pres. Clinton could act as peace-makers and honest brokers, Obama is following Bush's
                   example of non-leadership in bringing about peace and choosing, as Bush did, to give unconditional
                   backing to Israeli aggressions.   The dynamics of this situation will probably, therefore, spiral more and
                   more out of control.  At some point, we will probably see a shutting off of the flow of oil through the
                   Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran.  This would disrupt one third of the world's oil tankers.
                   Dec/28. 2011
Iran navy chief: Shutting off Gulf 'really easy' -  At its narrowest, the strait is
                   34 miles wide.  The oil traffic lane is 6 miles wide.   14 tankers carrying 15.5 million bar.
                   of crude oil pass through daily.  It is the only sea passage for oil produced by Iraq and
                   large parts of this region's oil.
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz    )
             
                                          wpeB.jpg (17353 bytes)

Tiger Index of NASDAQ-100    Note Flat top.  We will watch this closely in the coming days.

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QQQ Tiger Chart with volume
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=====================================================================
                                               OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================

1/10/2012  DJI = 12462    la/ma=1.024   21-dma ROC=.455  P= +362 +183- IP21= -.004    V= +30    OP= .006

1/10/2011       BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
        58 (+4)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

 NEW  8 Super-2011 Stocks making New Highs                                      
   
          80 (0)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                      
59  new highs on NASDAQ.   16   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   69 new highs NYSE    9 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/10/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude
                               
                                      DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout

1/10/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's bearishly broke its short-term uptrend-line     A close  0.39 ABOVE its opening would restore the
   short-term  CP Uptrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP broke its UPtrend-line.  It would take a Close 0.63 ABOVE the Opening to restore the
   CP UPtrendline.

   QQQ's CP bullishly still above its UPTrendline.       
      It will take a close of more than
0.08  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term CP UP-trendline.  
      Opening Power is rising.


    GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
0.78 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.

                                                                 Narrative of Hotline

         DJI Threatens A New Breakout despite Sell S9 and Sell S15.  I would remain hedged: long Bullish
         MAXCP stocks and short BEARISH MINCP stocks.  I would not yet go short the major market ETFs.
         The
SUPER STOCKS of 2011 are doing very well. Those making new highs with high AI/200 (>145)
         or with an IP21>.23 are moving up nicely, as hot money is concentrated in a smaller number of
         high performance stocks. These are shown here.

SUPER11.BMP (1029654 bytes)

         A subscriber asked late today whether I have done a study to show the returns of waiting for an A/D Line
         trend-break to clinch Sells and Buys.   I have not quantified it.  But it's clear that in the vast majority of
         cases, taking the automatic signals is best.  But, not always.  And it is when the Sells do not work out
         that I am concerned about, to reduce risk.  The clearest cases are June 1987 and January 1999 (using
         the pre-2007 software that did not take into account the four year Presidential cycle.)

         So why have I thought it best to delay shorting the major market ETFs here until there was more evidence
         of a true top?  It is a matter of judgement, to be sure. But here are the main reasons:

         1) Technically, flat tops beckon for breakouts.  Professionals understand that if a new high is made
         above a flat top, it will cause a great deal of short covering and breakout buying.  The DJI chart
         above shows we have seen the first flat resistance breakout.  Now the DJI is just below the resistance
         line of the second   That is why I have said the DJI might be able to achieve a nominal new high
         above 12800 on this run.

         2) Interest rates as low as we see now are unprecedented.  They support the market and keep the
         NYSE A/D Line uptrending.  When the A/D Line is stronger than the DJI, as it is now, Sell S9s and
         Sell S12s do not appear.  In 1977, 2001 and 2002 we also saw better breadth than the DJI.  In these cases,
         the general market did not  turn down until there was a break in the A/D Line uptrend.  There was
         plenty of profit still to be had in short sales by waiting for this. 

         3) The strength in the Dollar and the US Stock market for the last year is attracting foreign capital.
         This boosts defensive stocks and the DJI-30 for a while.  

         4) The most important element in all this is my sense that the triumverate (Obama-Big Wall Street Banks- Federal
         Reserve)  have been ARTIFICIALLY boosting the market since March 2009.  Low volume has been no problem
         for them in all this.  Why woud they stop artifically boosting the market now that we are in a Presidential
         Election Year when supporting the market is essential in their maintenance of political power?

         The rally has been artifically lifted partly by Big Wall Street Banks' buying index futures before the opening
         in NY and partly by a steady stream of computerized buy orders and very limited short selling.  Realize that
         75% of all NY trades now are computer driven from the Big Banks, especially Goldman Sachs. The Fed, for its
         part,  has provided a trillion dollars in liquidity to the big banks with no strings and interest rates approaching
         zero.   Obama has taken Wall Street off the hook for the Crash of 2008 and has not prosecuted Wall Street fraud,
         demanded lower CEO pay or more investment in the US and has even prevented enforecment of Administrative 
         Law forbidding mis-use of customer funds.   Wall Street has bought Obama.  His populist rhetoric is empty and
         used very cynically.   In return, the computerized traders from the big banks have avoided the short side for
         most of the advance from March 2009, despite the weak economy.  All this is part of an unwriten agreement,
         I contend, that holds together this Financial Junta that runs America now.   I have been posting Blogs about this
         since March 2008.  Now many others, including Conservatives agree with this popuist interpretation of the
         huge rise in stock prices despite Main Street's high unemployment and growing pauperization.  I urge you to read
         what these Conservatuves say,  Some are even joining the Occupy Wall Street movement.

wpeB.jpg (16801 bytes)           The Dirty Little Secrets
        of MF Global Bankruptcy.

MF Global broke lots of regulations and rules on keeping customer money separate from its own trading accounts, and used some of its clients’ funds to invest in sovereign bonds issued by indebted European countries.

When its leveraged bets lost, some customers like Koch Brothers and JP Morgan got advance word, before bankruptcy was declared.

Ex-Goldman and Democrat Corzine lobbied the Democrat and ex Goldman Gary Gensler who ran the Commodities Regulation Board (CFTC) hard to weaken enforcement of rules protecting customers of MF Global customers. Source.

Corzine-Gensler the Goldman Connection




         wpeB.jpg (16801 bytes)

        
         I came across such a site today,           
              http://fellowshipofminds.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/why-the-collapse-of-mf-global-should-concern-you/
        
         Now they know that they must keep lifting the market if Obama is to be re-elected. They all have gambled
         that a higher market will bring enough extra spending by investors and boost business confidence enough to
         increase the number of jobs in the US.  Only if millions of those who were unemployed in 2008-2009-2010
         do get jobs or see better prospects will Democratic voters actually turn out again and vote.


=====================================================================
                                               OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================

1/9/2012  DJI = 12393 +33   la/ma=1.02   21-dma ROC=.193  P= +179 +30- IP21= -.036   V= -30    OP= -.099

1/9/2011      BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  54 (+14)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   

      New --->   Hot Industry - Biotech New Highs                                                 
   
   80 (+6)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    37  new highs on NASDAQ.   25   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   78 new highs NYSE    10 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/9/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude
                               
                                      DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout.

1/9/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's bullishly broke its downtrend-line     A close  0.20 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the
   short-term  CP Uptrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP broke its Downtrend-line.  It would take a Close 0.20 below the Opening to restore the
   CP downtrendline.

   QQQ's CP bullishly broke its DownTrending.yesterday.         
      It will take a close of more than
0.25  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term he CP UP-trendline.  
      Opening Power is rising.


    GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
0.78 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.


                                                 Narrative of Hotline

1/9/2012     Sell S15 and Sell S9 Versus Biotech Breakouts. 

We still have no clinching of the Sells using
the key general market CLosing Powers' Uptrend-Breaks
or a break in the rising NYSED A/D Line.  But volume is
very low.  A breaking of the A/D Line uptrend when
it is stronger than the DJI can bring a substantial decline:
1977, 2001 and 2002 are the best examples.  So stay hedged,
but below are some biotech speculations to play on the
long side.   

Today a biotech, INHX (see chart below), that specializes in developing a drug to
fight hepatitis, jumped 140% on a buyout by BMY.  In 2001, they paid top dollar
for Imclone just before the general market fell sharply   Recall that VRUS, which
we recommended for long-term investors and a leader in developing new methods
to fight the world-wide scourge of hepatitis,  was bought out two months ago at
a huge premium.  Very often when one stock is bought out at a big premium,
others in the same industry become the objects of similar takeover bids.  And
recall what I said about this being a narrow market, where hot-preformance money
is focused on a relatively small number of stocks and how, as a result, this environment
often brings stellar short-term gains to any stocks making new highs. 

Today 18 biotechs rose more and 6% today. I consider only one of them,
ACHN,  to have
met our
BUY standards for a current Accum. Index (IP21) value of greater than .23.
BMRN is also consider a Buy because of the flat topped breakout, AI/200>145 and
IP21>.22. 

Growth Biotechs often top out last in a bull market and sometimes refuse even to decline.
 
    
     
Symbol    Name                       Price     Gain Today    AI/200  IP21   Comments
     --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      INHX          Inhibitex                   23.7          140%           133       
-.08  Insiders knew of buyout.
     IDIX            Idenix                     9.66            37%             96           .06
      ACHN         Achillon Pharm        9.72            22%             84           .23
High volume breakout BUY
      HRT            Arryhythmia             3.84           14%            100        + .27  very thin. Tax loss selling ended.
      VVUS         Vivus                     11.65            14%             58
       -.10
     
      TELK        Telik                          0.19           11%             17      
  -.11  Tax loss selling ended.
      CBLI          Cleveland Bio          3.74            10%             70          .16   Tax loss selling ended.
      ITMN                                       16.64            10%           100       
-.20  Tax loss selling ended.
      ZLCS                                        1.27              9%             72      
  -.05  Tax loss selling ended.
      QCOR       Questcor                42.14              8%           144   
    -.13  Rebound from 65dma
     
       XOMA       Xoma                      1.39              8%             51          .02  Tax loss selling ended.
       CGEN       Compugen               5.49             7%            130          .13  5.75 is 12-mo high resistance.
       DCTH       Delcath                   4.16             7%              52         .16  Tax loss selling ended.
       MDVN       Medivation             52.8              7%              79    
   -.08  New High
        DVAX      Dynavax                 3.52             6%              76         .25  New Closing High
      
        ELN          Elan                      13.88             6%            148         .17   Closing Power is lagging
       JAZZ         Jazz Pharm          48.2              6%            129        .18
       SPPI        Spectrum              15.5              6%            154       .18 
Nice flat topped breakout BUY.
      
Also
       ARIA        Ariad Pharm            13.79          1%             133     .05  New High
        BMRN    Biomarin                   37.17          1%             172   .222 New High Breakout Buy


                                                 Highest IP21 (Current Accum) Biotechs
        

DJIA
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DATAAD.BMP (572698 bytes)
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   INHX
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   Best Performing Stocks of 2011 that make new highs are objects of speculation
   by high-performance Growth Funds.  Download SUPER11 from Tiger Data Page and run
   the ANALYZE/RANK from Peercomm.  Then clicj Peercomm _ Charts-2011 + Tiger Selections +
   Tiger Groups + 22 New Highs.  Tonight 7 stocks appear here:  ACHN, GLNG, INHX, JAZZ, SIMO, SPPI
   and VRUS. If the I21 is over .22, any of these stocks usually goes much higher.  Exceptional momentum
   nearly always attracts the high performance crowd.  
                                  
                                New Highs among Highest Performance Stocks of 2011
                                                            with an IP21 > .23  
                                             
                                Symbol        Price      AI/200       IP21   200-day Performance
                                ACHN         9.72       84 (low)    .23      +167%
                                SIMO         22.95      136           .26        +440%

    Because any of these stocks that makes a new high is apt to get addional buying on the new high,
    instead of looking for new highs, it pays to let Tiger's Power Ranker find you the stocks that
    are within 4% of their 12-month highs.  This is the "ALMOSTNH" list produced by the Power Ranker.
    With this list I like to find the highest AI/200 stocks.  LQDT shows an AI/200 score now of 194
    and ALXN has an AI/200 score of 152 and an IP21 of +.15.  Both should be bought on new highs,
    I think, though the Peerless Sells may limit their advances if the market weakens and falls to the lower
    band.
   

wpeBCF.jpg (62625 bytes)

   

====================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================
              Hotline 

1/6/2012  DJI = 12360 -56    la/ma=1.018  21-dma ROC=.206  P= +162 (-14) IP21= -.022   V= -33    OP= -.078

1/6/2011      BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  40 (-13)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks   
                                                 
   
   74 (+9)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    28  new highs on NASDAQ.   21   new lows on NASDAQ   Bullish.
                   
   43 new highs NYSE       9 new lows on NYSE        Bullish.   

1/5/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
  DIA  SPY QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD SLV  Crude
                               
                                      DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout.

1/6/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's bullishly broke its downtrend-line     A close  0.45 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the
   short-term  CP Uptrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

   SPY's CP broke its Downtrend-line.  It would take a Close 2.0 below the Opening to restore the
   CP downtrendline.

   QQQ's CP bullishly broke its DownTrending.yesterday.         
      It will take a close of more than
1.57  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term he CP UP-trendline.  
      Opening Power is rising.


    GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
2.6 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.


                                                 Narrative of Hotline

1/6/2012     Sell S15 Adds to Bearishness of Sell S9.  
     Will the DJI breakout on the low volume we now see and overcome the
        continuing (red) distribution shown by the Tiger Accumulation Index? 
        The 2:1 bearish seasonality of the first ten weeks of the 4-Year Pres. Election Year
        argues against a valid breakout or an extended advance until there is first a
        first quarter pull-back. The market's ladership is very defensive now.  It's hard to find a
        good long position showing bulging Accumulation. 

        But a 3% additional DJI advance is still possible.  For that to happen
        the Closing Powers of the general market ETFs will need to establish new uptrends
        and break decisively above their downtrends.   Right now, they seem to be deciding
        which way to jump.

        In additon, we would expect to see new strength in one of more high priced
        DJI-30 stocks.  This is necessary because the Dow Jones Ind. Avg is entirely
        price weighted.  A $100 stock has 3x the weight of a $33 stock.  The high priced
        DJI stocks that might lead a rally do not look strong enough now.  But things
        could change.   If MSFT can rise 10% in the last 4 days, perhaps IBM at 182
        might, too.  Presently, it tooks weak.

        IBM - 182.54:  Below its 65-dma, CP made a 10 week low and IP21= -.131
        and is below is ma.

         CVX - 108.31 - at 5x tested  flat resistance.  This will need to breakout if
         the DJI is going to make a good advance.

         MCD - 100.6 - IP21= -.093 CP is in downtrend.

         XOM - 85.12 - IP21= -.025 ...88 will need to be exceeded.

         The best chance would seem to be if the oil stocks CVX and XOM were to turn up.
         It would seem that it will take a further rise in oil prices and oil stocks, particularly
         CVX and XOM, to propel the market significantly higher.  An increase in international
         tensions between Israel and Iran is certaintly a possibility.  But working against
         that would be a military withdrawl by the US from Iraq and Afghanistan.  The US
         military currently consumes $60 billion in oil a year.

         The EURO's weakness is continuing.   It would seem that it is only a matter of
         time before Greece must restore its own national currency.  If Greece reclaims its
         control of Greek monetary and fiscal policies, other countries may demand the same
         powers, especially if the current British-German-French and Brussels Deflationary
         policies turn a Recession into a Depression as they did in the 1930s.  The weakness
         in the EURO and foreign ETFs generally suggest to me that the biggest threat
         to the US markets is world-wide Deflation.  That need not bring a big decline in
         US stocks, however, below the lower band or immediately.  The strong Dollar better
         allows interest rates to be kept at very low levels here, which in turn, props up all the dividend
         plays and bond funds on the NYSE     The strong Dollar also invites foreign investing
         in US stocks.  Note that this also helps explain the rising Opening Power we see.

                                                        WHAT TO DO

         Increase the ratio of short sales to long positions.  But wait to go short SPY or
         DIA until the minor Closing Power uptrends are violated.

EURO
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Foreign ETFS
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European SP-350
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US DOLLAR
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DATAAD.BMP (547254 bytes)
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                      OLDER HOTLINES
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1/5/2012  DJI = 12416 -3   la/ma=1.024  21-dma ROC=.312  P= +162 (-50)  IP21= -.005   V= -26    OP= -.006


   1/5/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  53 (+23)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   65 (-33)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    21  new highs on NASDAQ.   10   new lows on NASDAQ    Bullish.
                   
   58 new highs NYSE       7 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

1/5/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude
                               
                                       DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout.

 
  
1/5/2012 ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's bullishly broke its downtrend-line     A close  0.45 BELOW its opening would bearishly break the
   short-term  CP Uptrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

wpeF.jpg (69140 bytes)
  
   SPY's CP broke its Downtrend-line.   It would take a Close 2.0 below the Opening to restore the
   CP downtrendline.


wpeD.jpg (84534 bytes)
wpeE.jpg (14097 bytes)


   QQQ's CP bullishly broke its DownTrending.yesterday.        
      It will take a close of more than
1.57  BELOW the Opening to break the short-term he CP UP-trendline.  
      Opening Power is rising.


    GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
2.6 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.



                                                 Narrative of Hotline

1/5/2012    Sell S15 Adds to Sell S9.   But CP Downtrend-Breaks
Suggest A Little More Strength.  What is the OBAMA-FED
-Wall Street Triumverate up to?

   
Since World War II, there were extensive rallies only 5 times in Januaries
of a Presidential Election year.  That is 5 in 16 cases, or 31.3% of the time.   Two of these
ended by mid February.  So, the upside would seem to be limited unless the
Obama Administration - Fed - Wall Street Junta pull out all the stops early
this year because of how dire the employment picture is for millions,  They may
do that, out of panic!  Obama still needs the many fast disillusioning DEM voters to
turn out and vote.  Here are some links to consider. Murdoch's  Fox is not the most
trustworthy source of information.  So read critically with all due cynicism:
     
January Surprise: Is Obama Preparing a Trillion-Dollar Surprise.,
  and White House Denies $1 Trillion Mortgage Fix: Report

       Usually, Presidents wait a few months before doing what they can to boost
the stock market and the economy,   That is the main reason, I think that there are
a lot more cases where a Jan-Feb decline occurs in the Presidential Election years. 
There were 10 cases of January declines, 2 instances where the the peak was in February
and 1 example of a December peak.

               Most Often -  First Quarter Declines
(red) in Presidential Election Year

1948  1/2/1948 peak 181.00 and decline to 165.70 on 2/10
1952  1/21/1952   peak 274.10 and decline to 258.50  2/20/1952 
1956  1/3/1956   peak 500.5 and decline to 465.70 on 2/14/1956
1960  1/4/1960   peak 679.10 and decline to 599.10 on 3/8/1960
1964   RALLY no decline
 
1968  1/8/1968   peak 908.92 and decline to 826.13 on 3/21/1968
1972  1/12/1972   peak 910.82 and decline to 899.15 on 1/26/1972 (Shallow)
1976  RALLY no decline
1980  RALLY until Feb peak 2/13/1980 and then 16% sell-off
1984  1/9/1984   peak 1286.22 and decline to 1134.21 on 2/22/1984
 
1988  1/6/1988   peak 2037.80 and decline to 1879.14 on 1/20/1988
1992  RALLY no decline.
1996  1/4/1996 peak 5173.84 and decline to 5032.94 on 1/10/1996 (Very shallow)
2000  1/14/2000 peak 11722.98 and decline to 5856.53 on 3/8/2000
2004  no Jan peak but Feb peak. 2/11/2004 10737.70 and decline to 10063.64 on 3/23/2004
 
2008  no Jan peak. Decline to 11971.19 on 1/22/2008 
         

                       WAIT BEFORE SHORTING

        The breaking of the Closing Power downtrends should boost the market a little longer. 
I suggested a night ago waiting to see what today's close would bring before adding to shorts or
shorting SPY.  Since the close was above the opening in NY, we should still be hedged,
rather than in a bearish position.  We probably should now wait for the minor CP uptrend to be broken before considering the Sells "clinched" and going short SPY and more bearish
MINCP stocks.

                        
A NEW TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS

        New year optimism is helping lift the NASDAQ a little now.  But the upside is probably
limited, unless Obama and the Fed announce important new stimulus programs, especially
in construction and home-building.  Home Building stocks have definitely turned up.  
While finance stocks generally are in doubt.  Big banks have heard something they like
from the Wall Street-Fed-Obama junta that they back. 

7 BIG BANKS
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HOME_BUILDING
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                                  WHERE REAL POWER NOW LIES IN THE US

New readers of our Hotline may wish to see the many Tiger Blogs I have written on the subject
of the Wall Street - Obama - Fed Reserve Triumvirate.  "AXIS", "CABAL" or "FINANCIAL JUNTA" also describe this secret power elite.    Secrecy is needed to avoid public accountability. 
        wpeB4C.jpg (56438 bytes) 
         3/18/2009   TigerSoft Blog:  Obama Coddles Wall Street Crooks
        
9/17/2009   TigerSoft Blog     The Secret Deal Obama, The Fed and Wall Street Have Reached
         4/4/2010   TigerSoft
Blog       Wall Street's Dirty Little Secret - Why The Market Keeps Rising
                                                       http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April-9-2010/Index.html
 

   S15, P-NC of NH, rising A/D Line, AI NC, VI-NNC, low volume
   DIA - Day Traders still prefer Selling the opening.

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DAD.BMP (556854 bytes)
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                 Day Traders Are Still Selling

DIADT.BMP (1920054 bytes)
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                      OLDER HOTLINES
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1/4/2012  DJI = 12418.42  la/ma=1.025  21-dma ROC=.393  P= +211 (-35)  IP21= -.045   V= -4    OP= .10


      1/4/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  30 (+5)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   98 (+13)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    10  new highs on NASDAQ.   16   new lows on NASDAQ    Bearish.
                   
   45 new highs NYSE       7 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

1/4/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude
                               
                                       DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout.


   1/4/2012 ===> Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's is at its downtrend-line     A close  ABOVE its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend. 
Opening Power is rising.
  
   SPY's CP is at its DOWNtrend-line.  A close ABOVE the Opening will break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  
   Its Opening Power is uptrending. 
     

   QQQ's CP bullishly broke its DownTrending.yesterday.        
      It will take a close of more than
0.81  BELOW the Opening to restore  the CP DOWN-trendline.  
     Opening Power is rising.

  GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
0.75 BELOW the Opening to break  the new CPUptrend-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is flat.

                                                 Narrative of Hotline

1/4/2012    New Sell S15 Adds to Sell S9.  
The DJI's Partial Breakout Today Saw Only A Narrow Advance.

The Peerless S15 occurs when the DJI reaches the upper band
with good momentum but with Down Stock Volume so high that
the V-Indicator is is negative territory and the Accumulation
Index also shows weakness.  It is an unusually reliable
signal.  In 11 previous occurrences, there were only two
small paper losses.

There were 46 more down than up on the NYSE
as the DJI made another marginal recovery high.

                              WHAT TO DO

The Sell S15 should get us to add to our short positions
from among the bearish MINCP stocks and reduce long positions
provided the Closing Powers turn down tomorrow.  If SPY's CP
does turn down,  I would go short SPY because of the reliability
of the Sell S12.  But wait until the close tomorrow.  SPY's Closing Power
could on a strong close break above its downtrend.  That would
be short-term bullish.  A breaking of the NY A/D Line uptrend
would also serve to clinch the Sell S15 if you wish to wait for
more evidence of a reversal..

   S15s  in Year of The Presidential Election Years                              
                                                                                           Next Reversing Sell Signal               
     date             dji                 la/ma       ann roc. P-I   P ch    AI           V-I      OPct     Date            DJ        Gain       Signal
   2/18/36        153.4             1.029     .608       57    17     .016          -28        .18       5/5/36        148.6     +3.1.%   B2
   3% Paper Loss
   4/1/36          158.9           1.018     .206      -40      4     -.097    -265     .207     5/5/36        148.6      +6.5.%   B2
   No Paper loss
   1/15/60       685.5           1.018     .40          4       6     -.038     -186     .089      2/11/60     618.60   +9.8%   B17
   No Paper loss
    4/6/72        959.44        1.02       .159    -70    15       .036         -1       .086    7/18/72     911.72  +5.0%      B2
    No Paper loss
    5/25/72      969.07        1.025     .279    -10     14      .004         -1       .225    7/18/72     911.72  +5.9%      B2
    No Paper loss
    3/24/76     1009.21      1.024    .192      -64     10    -.033          -1     .293      10/5/76      966.76    +4.2%   B2      No Paper loss.         
                                                                                     
     4/21/76     1011.02     1.019    .345      -1      15       .038         -1       .07      10/5/76    966.76  +4.4%      B2
     No Paper loss.
     2/13/80      903.84       1.028     .478    -26        1       -.01         -1      .206     3/28/80    966.76  +14.%      B19
    No paper loss
    4/14/92      3306.13     1.017    .256    -59      40      .033        -10    .231    8/21/92   3254.10   +1.6%   B2
    1% paper loss
     1/7/2000   11522.56   1.021    .48     -23    103      -.028      -59      .341    2/4/2000 3254.10  +4.8%    B17
    No paper loss
    2/11/2004 10737.70  1.017    .285   246     22       .093        -6      .136     5/18/04   9968.51    +7.2%   B2
   
No paper loss
     5/1/2008    13040       1.029    .405  174       34      .047        -28    .076
    7/8/08   11384.21   +12.7%   B2
     No paper loss
                                                                                                       N=11 AVG. = +7.0%




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                      OLDER HOTLINES
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    1/3/2012  DJI = 12397.38  la/ma=1.025  21-dma ROC=.372  P= +246 (+109)  IP21= -.09   V= +1    OP= .01


      1/3/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  25 (-7)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   85 (+23)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    8 new highs on NASDAQ.   18   new lows on NASDAQ    Bearish.
                   
   56 new highs NYSE       6 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

1/3/2012 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude
                               
                                       DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
                                 A move back below 12200 would be a bearish false breakout.

DATA.BMP (897654 bytes)
DATAD.BMP (542694 bytes)
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  1/3/2012 ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's is downtrending.     A close 0.83ABOVE its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend. 
Opening Power is rising.

DIAEX1.BMP (1224054 bytes)

   SPY's CP is DOWNtrending.   It will take a close of more than 0.12  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  
   QQQ's CP bullishly broke its DownTrending.     It will take a close of more than 0.32  BELOW the
   Opening to restore  the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  GLD's CP steep DOWN-trendline was broken.
  it would take a close of more than
4.10 BELOW the Opening to restore the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term rising.

                                                 Narrative of Hotline

1/3/2012    Sell S9.   The Partial Breakout Today
Does Not Over-Ride the Sell. We should
stay hedged.  A DJI decline now back below
12200 would be bearish.

A further breakout could still bring the DJI up to 12800.
When the P-Indicator turns clearly positive and the
NYSE A/D Line confirms the new highs, aa now, an additional
2%-3% rally typically occurs. A Closing Power break
in the CP downtrends will be needed for that.

Today's rally did bring the DJI's close slightly above its
lower flat resistance line.  Breakouts above well-tested and
flat resistance going back more than 40 days still must be respected
even without a Peerless Buy.  The NYSE A/D Line moved up
an impressive +1655 today.  It has risen to its flat resistance
line running through its June and November 2011 peaks.
See the DJI chart below.

Closes above the openings for DIA, SPY and QQQ tomorrow will probably break
these key ETFs' CP downtrends.  This would be a victory for Opening
Power.  Usually Closing Powers win.  But when Professionals are wrong,
they are not stubborn.  They adapt and play the momentum and the path
of least resistance

The biggest technical problem the DJI has now is
the negative Accumulation Index readings.  This shows that the
institutional selling on strength has not yet been overcome.
Negative readings from the Accum. Index are common as a stock
or an index rallies back into overhead supply on low volume, as now.
That overhead supply may still be overcome.

I think we have to give the market still more chance to
rally despite the operative Sell S9.  Stay hedged, but
watch the short sales.  If the CLosing Power for a short
sale breaks its downtrend or the stock closes clearly
over the 21-dma, I would cover it, because of how Januaries
frequently lift the most defeated stocks of the previous years.

The documentation on the Sell S9 is being re-written.  I will
work on it some more tomorrow. See
Sell S9 and  Buy B10

        Tiger Day Traders' Tool
Day traders have been heavily and successfullly shorting the SPY after the Opening. 
We see this in the Tiger Day Traders' Tool.  It measures whether there is greater
intra-day risk (downside) or reward (upside) after the Opening. 
When it is declining, as now, it means that the market 
has shown much more risk, i.e. that the distance from the opening to the low for the day
is much greater than from the opening to the high for the day (i). 
                 (Opening(i)-Low(i)) > (High(i)-Opening(i)


It is not necessarily bearish when the Tiger Day Tragers' Tool lags the
stock or ETF, as now.  Look at the second chart below, the SPY in 1996.
Breaks in long downtrend-lines are big boosters to prices.
We should
start watching the Day Traders' Tool's downtrend more and more and
know that a break in it will be bullish for the market.
 
I will provide a link
here soon to SPY and Tiger Closing Power charts since 1994.


SPY.BMP (1116054 bytes)

SPY96.BMP (1137654 bytes)
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                      OLDER HOTLINES
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12/30/11 DJI = 12218 -69  la/ma=1.012  21-dma ROC=.17  P= +136 (-118IP21= -.096   V=-28    OP=.086


      12/30/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  32 (-10)    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   62 (-48)  MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    8 new highs on NASDAQ.   18   new lows on NASDAQ    Bearish.
                   
   56 new highs NYSE       6 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/30//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude
                               
                                       DJI and Peerless Signals/Internal Strength Indicators
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DATAD.BMP (564054 bytes)
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  12/29/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's is downtrending.     A close 0.70 ABOVE its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend. 
Opening Power is rising.
wpeB.jpg (87015 bytes)
                               (Commands:   Tiger + Peerless + DIA + Indic-3 + Tiger Basis of Moves )
DIAOP.BMP (460854 bytes)
 
 
SPY's CP is DOWNtrending.   It will take a close of more than 0.27  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

   QQQ's CP is DownTrending.     It will take a close of more than 0.17  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline
  it would take a close of more than
6.37  ABOVE the Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term fallng.

                                                 Narrative of Hotline

12/29/11      Sell S9.   Will there be a Buy B10 Breakout?
  
   Our Stocks' Hotline has about the same number of long as short
        positions.  We are waiting to see which the DJI moves from its high inflection point.
        It could either breakout and advance to 12800 or fall back to the lower band
        at 11700.  While the NYSED A/D Line has been strong enough to support higher
        prices, the negative Accumulation reflects heavy institutional selling on strength. 
        Volume usually expands sharply in the new year.   We must watch now whether
        a breakout rally is attempted by Professionals bolstered by the Fed and
        Obama Administration, as they seek to prevent a big drop in the election year,
        as happened in 2008.

       This is a very defensive market.  This is apt to continue.  It  often happens in the
       late stages of a bull market.  To a large extent the rally has been
       driven by high cap dividend stocks being bought by money from
       overseas.  We see the overseas' influence by the rising Opening
       Powers and the falling Closing Powers looking at DIA, SPY and QQQ
       Usually Closing Power wins out.  The strongest industry groups are now
       high priced REITs, Bond Funds, Utilites and the blue chip DJI-30 stocks. 
       VZ, a virtual utility stock, is the highest AI/200 stock in the DJI.  Speculative
       stocks, by contrast, are relatively weak.  There are more NASDAQ new lows
       than new highs despite the fact that the DJI is less than 5% from its 12-month high.
       Big capitalization stocks are sought by fund managers now, mainly because
       they are easier to unload, if they decide to sell.

      
If you were a Professional trader trying to make money, what
       would you do?
If it were me, I would try to run-in some shorts
       and force some some short-sale profit-taking.
  With the new year
       comes public optimism.  I have mentioned that many of the most
       depressed stocks were until Jan. 1 under serious pressure from tax-loss selling.
       That pressure comes off in the new year.

       So, If I were a Professional now, I would try to get the public to buy stocks
       on a rally where prices look very cheap.  What better way to do this than to rig a   
       short-lived DJI breakout above 12350 and a nominal new high
       near 12800. 
Buying   the highest priced DJI-30 stocks, ike IBM (185.07),
       CVX (106.40), MCD (100.33), CAT (84.76) and XOM (84.76) would have
       the most effect in driving up prices,
because the DJI is weighted by
       price only.  The highest AI/200 stocks among these are CVX and IBM.
       MCD shows red distribution because of the selling at the round number 100,
       as much as anything.  War-mongering about Iran is in political season now,
       as politicians talk "tough".  Oil supplies are made to seem vulnerable. 
       Yahoo headlines like 
Iran warns U.S. aircraft carrier not to return are bound to
       boost CVX and XOM.

        A January Breakout Would Serve To Run-in Many Shorts.  So, we
       should be ready to close out any MINCP stocks if they break their CP
       downtrends.  Even closing any shorts if they close much above
       the 21-day ma is suggested if the market starts to rally next
       week on increased volume.  I do not expect to see a Peerless
       Buy immediately ahead.  

      A Peerless Buy B10 breakout needs a well-tested, flat resistance
      level like we see at 12350.  In addition, the P-Indicator and the
      Accumulation Index must be more than minimally positive.   The
      AI (also known as IP21) is very negative now,
- .096.

      A short-term breakout rally like the one which occurred in January
      2010 with a Sell S9
still operating shows how agile we may have to be.

      DJI - False Breakout in January 2010.   This seems a likely scenario now.
      
DATA0910.BMP (1440054 bytes)

  CVX

CVX.BMP (1082454 bytes)
  IBM AT SUPPORT OF RISING 65-DMA

wpe9.jpg (89318 bytes)

  MCD.
wpe8.jpg (80907 bytes)

.  

  


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      OLDER HOTLINES
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/29/11 DJI = 12287 +136  la/ma=1.018  21-dma ROC=.724  P= +253 (+86)  IP21= .011   V=+41    OP=.042


      12/29/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  42 +9    MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   110 -75   MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    24 new highs on NASDAQ.   35   new lows on NASDAQ    Bearish.
                   
   61  new highs NYSE       11 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/29//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

  12/29/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's is downtrending.     A close 0.42 ABOVE its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend.

   SPY's CP is DOWNtrending.   It will take a close of more than 0.07  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

   QQQ's CP is DownTrending.     It will take a close of more than 0.04  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline
  it would take a close of more than
6.61  ABOVE the Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term fallng.

12/29/11   Sell S9.   Will there be a Buy B10 Breakout?
  
The DJI needs to close about 100 points higher to
      break above its flat well-tested resistance for a breakout.
      Even with that, it would not be confirmed by the NASDAQ or
      SPY making corresponding new highs; volume is low and so casts
      doubts on any breakout, In addition, the current AI (IP21) value
      is not very positive.  There is still a lot of selling into this rally.

      So, a move up could be a false breakout.  Accordingly, I would short
      more of bearish MINCP stocks until we can see which way it will move
      from this high inflection point.      This is still a very defensive rally. 
      The earlier P-Indicator readings on B10 when adjusted are higher than now,
      for the most part.  See the tables I am working on for previous B10s
      below

      The other element here is tax-loss selling.  The weakest stocks
      will probably be weak another day.  Next year when the tax selling pressure
      come soff, they could rally.  That will put a premium on watching the
      Closing Power downtrend-lines.  When they are broken it will probably
      be best t cover shorts in that stock.  

  
wpe8.jpg (72739 bytes)
   Until January 15th, with a Peerless Sell signal operating,
   the odds are 7:1, based on past cases, that the DJI will
   not rise significantly and instead turn down.  The current
   Accumulation (IP21) is only slightly above 0.  This is too 
   negative for a Buy B10. 

  
When we consider the B10s since 1942, we can compare
     the valid B10s' P-I, IP21 OPct levels with their levels
     currently:  P-I = +253,
IP21 = +.011 OPct = +.04.  Automatic B10s
 
   require an IP21 of at least +.06. 

     I have programmed an Adjusted P-I (P^^).  This allows for
     much greater number of stocks  traded on the NYSE now.
     Older P-I values are multiplied by a factor that adjusted the P-I score
     for the changing advances and declines from year to year.
     Thus, a P-I reading of 100 in 1929 would be adjusted to 431.
     The Peerless Software does not yet make use of this methodology,
     but it should allow us to make comparisons over time more accurately.
     Here are is the P-Factor by year:

     1929 4.31         1930 5.01        1931 5.66        1932 7.08      1933 7.28       1934 5.53
     1935 5.59         1936 4.43        1937 4.45        1938 5.28      1939 4.61       1940 5.01
     1941 5.34         1942 5.07        1943 5.06        1944 5.34      1945 4.52       1946 3.90
     1947 4.17         1948 4.26        1949 3.91        1950 3.62      1951 3.04       1952 3.70
     1953 3.45         1954 3.36        1955 2.87        1956 3.18      1957 3.19       1958 3.16
     1959 2.96           1960 2.83        1961 2.91       1962 2.78      1963 2.69      1964 2.77
     1965 2.75           1966 2.60        1967 2.51       1968 2.30      1969 2.25      1970 2.12
     1971 2.12           1972 2.14        1973 1.93       1974 1.78     1975 1.90       1976 1.85
     1977 2.03           1978 2.07        1979 1.90       1980 1.93     1981 1.74       1982 1.93
      1983 1.97          1984 1.75         1985 1.98      1986 1.91     1986 1.97       1987 1.72
      1988 1.72          1989 1.96         1990 1.84      1991 1.94     1992 1.71       1993 1.58
      1994 1.38          1995 1.28         1996 1.22      1997 1.53     1998 .996      1999 .961
      2000 .974           2001 1.00        2002 .967      2003 .936       2004 1.35      2005 .921
      2006 .901           2007 .901        2008 .932      2009 .971       2010 .997      2011 1.0
.  

     There is one automatic B10s at the end of the year, December 1991.
     There are 3 instances in early January: 1967, 1976 and 1989.
     One would think a breakout must wait a while.

                                  Earlier B10s

Date      DJIA    Gain    LA/MA   ROC  P-I P-cha. P^^Adj IP21 V-I OPCT  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Judged 6/28/29 331.7  +2.9%  1.054   1.327  23  -1   +100   .048-102 .483
Judged 4/19/33  68.3  +50.4%  1.159   1.709  24  29   +177   .119 155  .066
Judged 11/7/34  97.6   +7.1%  1.034   .594   12 -20    +71   .092 -11  .165
     A judged B10 here reversed multiple Sell S9s.
Compare: Sell S12 well tested breakout  10/5/1937  172.60 produces rally to 184 on 11/10/1937
and B12 well-tested breakout on 6/22/1938.
10/8/1942  113.6 +24.8%   1.044   .691  114  20   +579         .325  91   .546 
3/8/1944   139.5  +6.0%   1.023   .463  110  22   +587   .179  86   .328
12/8/1944  150.5  +9.0%   1.022   .243  106  18   +568   .134  91       .532
8/24/1945  169.9 +17.2%   1.038   .598  139  28   +628   .139  69   .254 
10/15/1947 183.3  +0.6%   1.027   .535   98  21   +408   .181  77   .342
5/19/1948  188.3  +2.1%   1.027   .494  108  13   +461   .211 138   .40 
8/2/1949   177.6 +21.2%   1.021   .652  153 -11   +599    .33  137   .471 
10/4/1950  231.2  +0.1%   1.03    .595  143  15   +518   .133  169   .45 
   DJI rally fizzled out after breakout.  Unexplected news hit Wall Street.
       Chinese Red Army crossed Yalu and attacked UN forces in October.. 
    The strength in the NYSE A/D continued
11/28/1952 283.70 +2.9%   1.034   .774  186  13   +688    .19  217   .47
9/8/1955   475.1  +3.4%   1.03    .68   100  37   +288    .131  65   .328
3/9/1956   497.8  +2.5%   1.035   .66   165  49   +524    .085 266  .207
2/4/1958   458.7  +36.1%  1.026   .429  197  18    +625    .101 296  .23 
11/16/1962 630.9  +11.2%  1.056   .864  115  32   +322    .111  70  .142 
7/2/1964   841.5  +11.6%  1.026   .432   94  20   +261    .042  51    .518 
Judged  8/16/1965   +10.6%  1.017   .145   80   8   +222     -.009 20  .176 
1/13/1967  835.13 +4.0%   1.039   .273  135  21   +339    .07    5  .221
9/30/1968  935.79 +4.5%   1.02    .565  119   8   +275    .09   12    .564  
12/3/1970  808.53 +15.9%  1.044   .623  143  -3   +305    .06    0  .626 
11/3/1972  984.12  +6.4%  1.039   .539  120  55   +257    .083   1  .259
10/5/1973  971.25  +1.6%  1.052   .908  251   1   +484    .248   2  .388
1/7/1976   898.69  +12.3% 1.054  1.124  286  35   +530    .20    2  .536  
8/9/1984   1224.0  +0.2%  1.079  1.218  139  77   +244    .135  15 .414 
Judged 1/14/85              1.028   .59   205  51   +406    .110   8 .121
Judged 1/21/85              1.041   .525  237  38   +469    .097   8 -.113
6/5/1985   1320.56 +2.6%  1.023   .673  234  11   +464    .125  15 .456
1/12/1989  2222.32 +24.7% 1.023   .454  118  21   +204    .078  11 .185 
1/31/1991  2736.39 +22.6% 1.058   .58   143  33   +263    .116  12 .218
12/27/1991 3101.52  +6.8% 1.057   .755  117  18   +216    .077   7 .289
5/26/1993  3540.16 +12.1% 1.022   .428  105  28   +180    .138  15 .204
9/14/1995  4801.8  +13.7% 1.032   .413  237  24   +328    .08   14 .151
9/13/1996  5838.52 +17.0% 1.024   .359  150  20   +192    .116  13 .26
11/21/2005 10820.28 +7.0% 1.026   .685  227 -10   +307     .108 108 .316
8/18/2006  11381.47 +8.9% 1.019   .484  411  81   +379    .08   22 .05
3/23/2010  10888.83 -4.4% 1.031   .571  590  67   +573    .166  90 .425
           DJI rallied to 11205 (+3%) and then head/shoulders top.


  
Key Values       Valid B10     Current
  
                                 1/14/1985    12/29/2011
      DJI                            1234.54       12287.04
      LA/MA                          1.028           1.018
      21-dma ROC                   0.59           0.724
      P-I                                    205             253
      Adjusted P-I                    406              253    low                 
      P-I Change                        51               86
      IP21                                  .11              .011   very low
      V-I                                       8              40
       OPct                               .121             .04  


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               OLDER HOTLINES
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/28/11 DJI = 12151 -140  la/ma=1.001  21-dma ROC=.623  P= +167 (-186)  IP21= -.02   V=+ 20    OP=.062


      12/28/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  33 -36  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
                                                 
   
   185       MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks      
Bearish.   
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    5 new highs on NASDAQ.   47   new lows on NASDAQ    Bearish.
                   
   27  new highs NYSE       29 new lows on NYSE       Bearish.   

12/28//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

  12/28/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's is downtrending.     A close 0.88 ABOVE its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend.

   SPY's CP is DOWNtrending.   It will take a close of more than 1.14  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

   QQQ's CP is DownTrending.     It will take a close of more than 0.44  ABOVE the
   Opening to break  the CP longer-term DOWN-trendline.  

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline
  it would take a close of more than
8.15  ABOVE the Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term fallng.

12/28/11   Sell S9.  DEFLATIONARY FEARS ARE REAL.
          Euro's Weakness means a Stronger Dollar,
          But Collapsing Overseas Markets, Gold and Silver.
          OPEC Holds up Oil, but for how long?

         
The Sell S9 should be respected now.  The odds
                  are much better that there will be a decline
                  than a breakout.  See the Hotline I did yesterday.
                  With a Sell operating, late Decembers and the
                  first two weeks of January are much more likely to
                  bring a decline than a rally.  In 8 cases the DJI fell
                  when Peerless was on a sell from 12/26 to 1/19.

                  In 4 of these cases the peak occurred before the
                  new year.

.


        
  Peak             Subsequent Action
               1947-8       12/31/48      Earlier S4...10 week decline.
               1956-7        1/2/1957       Decline from 486.00 to 454.80 on 2/12/57 following December S9/S12
               1959-60      1/5/60          Sell S15 on 1/5/60 following December S12 
                                                       3 month decline from 685.50 to 599.10 on 3/8/60

                 1961-62    12/28/61       Sell S10 on 1/4/62 following December S12 
                                                       6 month decline from 731.50 to 535.70 on 6/26/1961

               1983-1984 1/9/84            Sell S12 following earlier S4  ... Bear market followed.
               2000-2001 12/29/2000   Earlier S12. DJI fell back from 10876.85 to 9389.48 on 3/22/2001
               2006-2007  2/20/2007    DJI zig-zagged higher despite 1/5/07 S9 until peak on 2/20/2007.  Then fell 6%.
               2007-2008 12/26/2007  Earlier Dec. S9. Bear market started 
               
2009-2010 1/19/2010   Earlier  S9. DJI fell from 10725.43 to 10012.23 on 2/5/2010
            

                  My understanding remains that Depressions are created by
                  austere Budget Balancing in the middle of a recession.  Europeon
                  political leaders are following the advise their big banks are giving,
                  just as Hoover did in England and both Labour and Conservative
                  Governments did in the UK in the 1930s.  The entrenched Austrian
                  School of Economics will not admit their folly and the hardships
                  they are causing again.
                           Dec. 29,2011 - Financial Times on European Austerity
                           http://tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/83---2011/index.html

                  Wall Street understands this better than the right-wing pundits
                  in the US.  The decline today reflects renewed fears of a second dip
                  Recession here.  As I see it, the pronounced weakness in overseas
                  stocks suggests DEFLATION IS EXPECTED.  That also explains the
                  profound weakness now see in Gold, Silver and mining stocks.  Sure
                  tax loss selling is at work now.  But there is a bigger dynamic at work here.
                  Right-wing (Glen Beck) and left-wing (Max Keiser) scare mongers have
                  pushed the Public into buying Gold and Silver in a way that resembles
                  how the Public over-speculated in Internet Stocks in 1999-2000.

EURO
wpeA92.jpg (72886 bytes)
FOREIGN ETFS
wpeA91.jpg (63031 bytes)
DOLLAR  - A breakout by the Dollar above 81.5 would
be quite bearish for the EURO and signify an intensification"
of its crisis.
wpeA90.jpg (68767 bytes)
GOLD
wpeA8F.jpg (77825 bytes)
SILVER
wpeA8E.jpg (76194 bytes)
SSRI
wpeA8D.jpg (81437 bytes)

 


                             December Sell S9.

     Santa Claus has left the building..... We are left with a Peerless Sell S9 as the year ends.  Tax-
     selling and institutional window-dressing may exaggerate the moves of the weakest and strongest
     right up through the last day of the year, Friday.  Apart from that, the DJI's nominal new high
     was not confirmed by the SP-500, NASDAQ or IWM (Russell-2000).  

     The weakness we are seeThere could still be a breakout above the moderately flat resistance lines
     shown in the DJI just chart below.  Flat top breakouts should have positive internals on the breakout. 
     A comparison of the key internals now with the important and bullish January 14, 1985 breakout
     may be instructive.  The P-I Indicator, IP21 and OPct are each far below that they were on the
     very authentic breakout of 1/14/1985.  In 1984-1985 there were only about half as many stocks
     trading on the NYSE.  If we adjust for this, the P-Indicator would have been 410 in today's terms. 
                     (This should probably be done for all the Peerless historical studies!?)
    That adjustment makes the P-Indicator reading now of 167 appear much lower or more modest. 
   
    The next two charts below show the DJI and SP-500 charts for 1984-1985.   Two further differences
    are seen.  First, the flatness of the DJI's resistance lines of 1984-1985 was very striking.  This
    is important and made the situation then more bullish, because there was then much wider agreement
    about what price level would achieve a bullish breakout. When that level was achieved, more
    buy orders came in, all at once.   Lazy selling at the old highs was greater then, too.  These
    insttutions would later have to come back in the market.

   Another difference between now and then was that the broader-based SP-500 was actually
  somehat stronger than the DJI then.  Its resistance lines, that corresponded to the DJI's, were
  rising.     
                         
                                    1/14/1985        12/28/2011
      DJI                            1234.54       12154.41
      LA/MA                          1.028           1.010
      21-dma ROC                   0.59           0.623
      P-I                                    205              167
      (Sum of Adv+ Dec         1696      2993 
      P-I Change                        51             -186
      IP21                                  .11             -.02
      V-I                                       8              20
       OPct                               .121            .062 
DATA.BMP (1015926 bytes)

    At the end of 1984, the DJI looked somewhat similar in that there were two flat resistance
       line above the DJI as the year ended.  The first breakout (and judged B10 confirmed by a corresponding
       A/D Line brreakout ) led to the second breakout and eventually much higher prices.

DATA8485.BMP (1017654 bytes)


     The SP-500's resistance lines were actually rising in 1984, showing greater relative strength than now.
S&P8485.BMP (1027938 bytes)



==================================================================================== 
           
       OLDER HOTLINES    
====================================================================================

12/27/11 DJI = 12291  la/ma=1.024  21-dma ROC= 1.055  P= +352 (+18)  IP21= +.03   V=+ 80    OP=.139

      12/27/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  69 +21  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
   Bullish.                                                    
   
   58 +18   MINCP stocks   Bearish MINCP Stocks        
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    38 new highs on NASDAQ.   33   new lows on NASDAQ    Bullish.
                   
   127  new highs NYSE       14 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/27//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

  12/27/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
 
   DIA' s  CP's 4-day trend is still up but slowing down.  It broke its steep CP uptrend slightly.   
  
It is still below its 3 week downtrend.   A close 0.87 above its opening would bullishly break the
   longer-term CP downtrend.

  

   SPY's CP is slightly above its 3-week DOWNtrendline.   It will take a close of more than 0.31  BELOW the
   Opening to restore the CP DOWN-trendline.  

   QQQ's CP is slightly below its 3-week DownTrendline.   Any close of more than 0.02 ABOVE the Opening
   will break the CP DOWNTREND-line.  

  GLD's CP is far below its 3-week DOWN-trendline, very oversold but is apt to keep rallying..   
  it would take a close of more than
 6.04 ABOVE the Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

DATA11.BMP (1022454 bytes)

    12/27/11     Santa Claus Rally versus December Sell S9.

     Take profits in DIA.  Without a Buy signal, much higher volume or a decisive price breakout,
     we are thrown back to the bearish Sell S9 signal as the reigning Peerless signal now.  Breadth
     was again positive. The NYSE A/D Line did make a recovery new high.  But although though there were
     61 more up than down, NYSE Down Volume was 35% more than UP VOLUME.  Bearishly SPY,
     QQQ, NASDAQ and IWM have all failed to make a recovery high above the ones made at the
     end of November. 

     Tonight our Stocks' Hotline has added some new short sales from among the Bearish MINCP
     stocks.

     What is of concern is how often the DJI and market pivot and turn downward sharply
     not long after December 25th:  A breakout upwards is still a possibility, too.  But with
     the Sell Signal S9 operating, let the bulls prove their case.    Take some trading profits.
     The DJI seems more likely to pivot down than breakout in the next two weeks. Below is
     a study of the DJI since after WWII.

     I have looked at the 52 Bull Market end of year action since 1946.  In 9 cases the
     DJI peaked before the new year and sold off.   In 14 cases it sold off from a peak early in the
     new year,before the 15th of January.  Significant breakouts upwards occurred only 4 times before
     the start of the new year and 6 times before the 15th of January.   Without a major Buy signal
     other than a Santa Claus Buy, significant advances seldom occur as long as a Sell reigns.  Only in two
     cases of  9 where a Sell was operative did the DJI delay declining until after January 9th.

                                  Peak             Subsequent Action
               1947-8       12/31/48      Earlier S4...10 week decline.
               1956-7        1/2/1957       Decline from 486.00 to 454.80 on 2/12/57 following December S9/S12
               1959-60      1/5/60          Sell S15 on 1/5/60 following December S12 
                                                       3 month decline from 685.50 to 599.10 on 3/8/60

                 1961-62    12/28/61       Sell S10 on 1/4/62 following December S12 
                                                       6 month decline from 731.50 to 535.70 on 6/26/1961

               1983-1984 1/9/84            Sell S12 following earlier S4  ... Bear market followed.
               2000-2001 12/29/2000   Earlier S12. DJI fell back from 10876.85 to 9389.48 on 3/22/2001
               2006-2007  2/20/2007    DJI zig-zagged higher despite 1/5/07 S9 until peak on 2/20/2007.  Then fell 6%.
               2007-2008 12/26/2007  Earlier Dec. S9. Bear market started 
               
2009-2010 1/19/2010   Earlier  S9. DJI fell from 10725.43 to 10012.23 on 2/5/2010
    
.
     A major Buy is needed to continue the advance very much.  That will take much better volume. 
     Usually volume does not come back into the market until after the new year.

     Bull Markets: 1946-2011 and Pivots Down At The End of The Year

                       Breakouts and
                       Pivots Down Peaks     Reaction of DJI:  UP and DOWN
1-10
     1947-8       12/31/48      Earlier S4...10 week decline.
     1951-2       12/29/51      Breakout following B12
     1952-3       1/6/53          Sell S8 on 12/30  3 month decline
     1953-4      1/15/54         Breakout following B12
     1954-5      1/3/55          Decline from 408.90 to 388.20 on 1/17/56 following earlier B11
    
     1955-6      12/30/55      Decline from 488.40 to 462.40 on 1/23/56 following earlier B17/B10/B11
     1956-7      1/2/1957       Decline from 486.00 to 454.80 on 2/12/57 following December S9/S12
     1958-9      12/30/59       Breakout following earlier B18/B11
     1959-60    1/5/60           Sell S15 on 1/5/60 following December S12 
                                           3 month decline from 685.50 to 599.10 on 3/8/60

     1961-62    12/28/61       Sell S10 on 1/4/62 following December S12 
                                           6 month decline from 731.50 to 535.70 on 6/26/1961

 11-20
     1963-1964 1/22/64       Breakout following earlier B5
     1964-1965 1/7/65          Breakout following earlier B11
     1965-1966 1/5/66          Breakout following earlier B11; then peak at 1/18/66 on S12.  Bear market followed.
     1967-1968 1/8/68        1/9/69 Sell S12 following earlier B17.  DJI fell from 908.20 to 825.13 on 3/21/1968. 
    
     1970-71    12/29/70      Breakout following earlier B4/B11
    1971-72                         February breakout  following earlier B12
     1972-73    1/11/73        Sell S9/S12/S15 following earlier B4... Bear market started
    
1975-1976 1/5/76          Breakout B10 following earlier B9
    
21-30
     1976-1977 12/31/76     Sell S4/S8 following earlier B17 ... Bear market started
    
1980-1981 1/6/81         Sell S4/S8 following earlier B17  ... Bear market started
    
1982-1983 1/12/83       Sell S12 following earlier B6  ... DJI fell fro two eeeks from 1083.61 to 1030.17 on 1/24/83
    
1983-1984 1/9/84         Sell S12 following earlier S4  ... Bear market followed.
    

     1984-1985 1/21/85       Breakout B10 following earlier B2/B11 
    
1985-1986 1/7/86         No Sell but DJI fell back from nominal new high at 1565.71 to 1511.24 on 1/23/86
    
1986-1987 1/6/87        Breakout B14 following earlier B9/B17/B6
    
1988-1989 1/17/89      Breakout B10 following earlier B7
     1989-1990 1/3/86        Sell S14 following earlier B17. DJI fell back from nominal new high at 2809.73.
                                         Declined to  to 2553.38 on 1/29/86
    
31-40
      1991-1992 12/27/91    B10 Breakout following earlier B17 and renewal of bull market.
     1992-1993 12/29/93    No Sell but DJI fell back from nominal new high at 3310.84 to 3241.95 on 1/20/93
    
1993-1994 1/10/94      Breakout advance following earlier Buy.  Peak on 2/3/1995 S4. Bear mkt followed.
    
1994-1995  1/16/95     Peak without Sell. Pullback from 3932.34 to 3832.08 on 1/30
                         2/10/94    Breakout advance following earlier Buy B6.
      1995-1996 1/3/1996    No Sell but DJI fell back from 5194.07 to 3032.94 on 1/10/1996.
                      
1/29/1996   Breakout advance following earlier Buy B4

41-50    
     1996-1997 1/13/1997   Breakout advance following earlier Buy B4/B17
     1997-1998 1/9/1998     No Sell but DJI fell back from 7978.99 to 7580.42 on 1/9/1998.
                       2/10/1998    Breakout B4 advance following earlier Buy B9
     1998-1999 1/8/1999     No Sell but DJI fell back from 9643.32 to 9133.03 on 2/9/1999.
                                          Then Bull market resumed.
     1999-2000 12/31/1999  S9 and DJI fell back from 11497.12 to10997.93 on 1/4/2000
                       1/14/2000    S4/S14 and DJI fell back from  11722.98 to 9796.03 on 3/7/2000
     2000-2001 12/29/2000  Earlier S12. DJI fell back from 10876.85 to 9389.48 on 3/22/2001

     2003-2004 1/27/2004    No Sell until 2/11/2004 S15.  DJI fell back from 10609.92 to10063.64 on 3/23/2004
     2004-2005 12/28/2004  S8 reversed B9. DJI fell back from 10854.54 to 10368.61 on 1/24/2005
     2005-2006 1/11/2006   No Sell but DJI fell back from 11043.44 to 10667.39 on 1/20/2006
     2006-2007  2/20/2007    DJI zig-zagged higher despite 1/5/07 S9 until peak on 2/20/2007.  Then fell 6%.
     2007-2008 12/26/2007   Earlier Dec. S9. Bear market started

51-52
    
2009-2010 1/19/2010      Earlier  S9. DJI fell from 10725.43 to 10012.23 on 2/5/2010
     2010-2011 1/3/2011       Breakout after earlier B18.  Bull market resumed.

====================================================================================
                                                       OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

12/23/11 DJI = 12294 +124   la/ma=1.029  21-dma ROC= 1.037  P= +334   IP21= +.023   V=+ 80    OP=.146

      12/23/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  48 +4  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks    
   Bullish.                                                    
   
   40   MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks        
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    16 new highs on NASDAQ.   15   new lows on NASDAQ    Bullish.
                   
   92  new highs NYSE        3 new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/23//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

  12/22/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  The ETFs CPs are all in intermediate-term Down-trends and short-term Up-trends.    

   DIA' s  CP iS above its 3-dayt UPtrendline    Any close of more than  0.40 BELOW the Opening will break the CP
   DOWN-trendline.     
  

   SPY's CP is below its DOWNtrend    It will only take a close of more than 0.33  ABOVE the
   Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

   QQQ's CP is above 3-day UPtrendd   Any close of more than 0.45 BELOW the Opening will break the CP    
   UP-trendline.  

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline, very oversold but is apt to keep rallying..   
  it would take a close of more than
 6.3  ABOVE the Opening to break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

12/23/11     Santa Claus Rally versus December Sell S9.

            Will There Be A Breakout?  Breadth Says "Yes"
            And the seasonality is still bullish.  But we need
            to see a major Peerless Buy.  Without much higher
            Volume, the Accum. Index will remain near zero and
            that wil probably prevent a Buy B10.


                                              Work in Progress

                    After December 26th since 1965, the DJI does rise 2/3 of the time over the next week.
                    But the gains are small and the Santa Claus Buy is a short-term Buy and does not
                    alter the fact that the last intermeidate-term Peerless signal was a Sell S9.  Bulls
                    will need to see a new red Peerless major Buy.

                    The buying has been here has been on low volume and is still concentrated
                    in defensive and dividend-paying stocks.  This has caused the SP-500 and NASDAQ
                    to lag the DJI by enough to make any DJI new high unconfirmed by thes eother
                    averages.   Such divergences are often quite bearish.  But they do not call every top.
                    They offered no warning, for example, at the important tops of January 1973, October 1978,
                    September 1979, March 1980, October 1987,  July 2007 or December 2007, when S9s did
                    take place. 

                   The SP-500 failed to match a DJI new high at these important tops:

                                      
March-April 1981
                                      Jan. 1984
                                      Jan. 1990  -  NASDAQ also failed to confirm
                                      July 1990 - The margin of the SP andNASDAQ  new highs in July 1990
                                                         was smaller than DJI's
                                      Jan 2000
                                      May 2001 - NASDAQ also lagged very badly.
                                      March 2002  - NASDAQ also lagged very badly.


                                     

 

Jan 2000.


                                   

wpe4.jpg (69841 bytes)


=================================================================================
                                                              OLDER HOTLINES
=================================================================================

12/22/11 DJI = 12170 +62   la/ma=1.022  21-dma ROC= .678  P= +59   IP21= -.056   V= -6    OP= -.011

      12/22/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  44 +2  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                         
   
   61   MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks         Bearish.      
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    27 new highs on NASDAQ.   17   new lows on NASDAQ    Bullish.
                   
   79  new highs NYSE        11  new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/21//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

12/22/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  The ETFs CPs are all in Down-trends. But very oversold and rising.   

   DIA' s  CP iS far below its DOWNtrend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
    Any close of more than
 1.90  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.
  

   SPY's CP is far below its DOWNtrend    It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.
   Any close of more than
1.30  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

   QQQ's CP is far below its longer-term DOWN-trend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
  Any close of more than
1.00  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline, very oversold and apt to keep rallying..   
  it would take a close of more than
 6.1  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

12/22/11     Santa Claus Rally versus December Sell S9.
        12300 Should Be Tested This Year.  A Breakout
        Past That Next Year Is Likely if Breadth Stays Strong.
        Warning:  Right Now The Advance Seems Way Too
        Narrowly Defensive To Bring a New Bull Market.  
        Without a new Peerless Buy, January Could Be
        Dangerous To Bulls.



                          Bullishly, the NYSE A/D Line broke its downtrend, becase there were 3x more
                          advancers than declines.  The P-Indicator has turned positive, too.  However, the
                          Accumulation Index is still negative and Cumulative NYSE Up-Down Volume continues
                          to lag prices.  If the first resistance at 12250 resistance is overcome, the higher one at
                          12600 will probably be breached, too.  What the DJI does, is not necessarily what the
                          SP-500 or NASDAQ will do.  This has become a very defensive market.  Scared money
                          is being put into "Blue Chip" DJI stocks, bonds, dividend paying REITs, food, tobacco and
                          pharmaceuticals much more than speculative stocks.  With interest rates low and a
                          concerted effort by the Administration, the Fed and big brokerage program traders,
                          a narrowing non-speculative market can last some time.  Stick with DIA.  Avoid SPY
                          and QQQ.

                          Without a new Peerless Buy, even with a breakout above 12600, it is hard to
                          be very constructive about most stocks.  In the study I did last night you can see that
                          when there has been a Sell S9 in December, even the DJI tops out by early January
                          in 6 of 7 cases.  Here are the relevant cases I can find now.

                  Opererative      Price Breakout             B10                      Subsequent Peak    
                   Peerless            Over Well-Tested          on
                  Signal                 Resistance                     Breakout?
                    ----------               ----------------------------      ----------------          ---------------------------    
                 
S9,S12                1/3/1957        499.20      No                        Peak - decline to 454.80 on 2/12/1957
                  S12 ,S15            1/5/1960        685.50     S15 A/D Lag.      Peak - decline to 607.10 on 3/9/1960
  
                 
S9, B6                 1/10/1983    1092.35      S12                      Peak - Decline to lower band.
                  S9
                       12/28/1999 11485         S9                         Peak - Decline to lower band.
                 
B18, S9 (12/28/2004) 3/4/2005 10941        S15                     Peak - 8% decline.
                  S9
, S12                Dec. head/shoulders JudgedS10       13.5% decline from Dec. peak
                  S9
, B13                1/12/2010   10627        No                        8% pull-back
                           The earlier S9 was a warning that  the breakout would fail.
                          
The current S9 suggests the same thing if there is no new Peerless Buy.

                                                                           What To Do

                        For now, stay long DIA, some defensive stocks and bullish MAXCP stocks.  Short selling
                        will be tricky now because of the cross currents of tax-loss selling.

                                       DJI is approaching two horizontal resistance lines.
                      Usually when the first is broken, the second higher one is overcome, too.

DATA.BMP (952854 bytes)
wpe4.jpg (9683 bytes)
wpe6.jpg (12281 bytes)
D3.BMP (342198 bytes)

                             NASD - Below its 200-day ma and NASDJI is negative.
NASD.BMP (1020662 bytes)
,s

====================================================================================
                                                            OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================
12/21/11 DJI = 12108 +4   la/ma=1.02  21-dma ROC= .563  P= +59   IP21= -.056   V= -6    OP= -.011


      12/21/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  42 +15  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                         
   
   308    MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks         Bearish.      
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    28 new highs on NASDAQ.   27   new lows on NASDAQ   
                   
    94  new highs NYSE        12  new lows on NYSE       Bullish.   

12/21//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

12/21/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  The ETFs CPs are all in Down-trends. But very oversold and rising.   

   DIA' s  CP iS far below its DOWNtrend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
    Any close of more than
 2.49  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.
  

   SPY's CP is far below its DOWNtrend    It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.
   Any close of more than
 2.28  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

   QQQ's CP is far below its longer-term DOWN-trend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
   But any close of more than
0.29 BELOW the Opening will restore the CP DOWNtrendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline, oversold and apt to keep rallying..   
  it would take a close of more than
 6.64   ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

12/21/11     Santa Claus Rally versus December Sell S9.
        12300 Should Be Tested This Year.  A Breakout
        Past That Next Year Is Likely if Breadth will
        stay positive enough to give us a Buy B10 on the
        Breakout.   Right Now The Advance Seems Way Too
        Narrowly Defensive To Bring a New Bull Market.  


I have suggested covering most short sales and going long DIA, defensive and bullish
MAXCP stocks.  The Futures appear to be up 70.  A rally now is in keeping with the time-|
honored Santa Claus rally tradition.  Since 1965, the DJI has rallied on average 1.5% and
risen 73.3% of the time over the next 10 trading days.  The declining Closing Power is
not a barrier to a rally when it gets as oversold as it was two days ago.  In additon, the
A/D Line downtrend since its mid-November peak may be violated tomorrow.  That will
boost the market.  And another bullish domino could fall if the DJI were to breakout and close
above the flat resistance at 12300.  I have argued that Wall Street, the Fed and the Obama
Administration are betting heavily on the rally continuing.  If it were to falter, there could be
a bear market right in the middle of a Presidential Election year.  That would surely raise
populist pressures on Elite Wealth esconsced behind the Greed Connection between
Wall Street and Washington.  It is this alliance which has created the bull market since March 2009.
all without significant improvement to millions who live Main Street.
     
  5/10/2009 - http://www.tigersoftware.com/TigerBlogs/April-7-2009/index.html

There is ample precedent for an important price breakout above flat resistance
after the New Year.  It rarely occurs in the two weeks before New Year's Day.  A Buy B10
is not essential, but there should be an automatic Peerless Buy early on if the advance
after a breakout is apt to be significant.  Well-tested means 3x or more tested. A Sell
signal on the breakout is reliably bearish. 
Without a new automatic Buy signal, the operative
S9 signal suggests any breakout we may see here in the next few weeks will be false.


  Oper.         Price Breakout           B10                   Subsequent Peak    
  Peer.         Over Well-Tested         on
Signal         Resistance                     Breakout?
 ----------        ----------------------------     ----------------     ---------------------------   
B13             1/22/1934    105.10       No                  2/5/1934   110.70         
 B13 ,B11    2/3/1936       150.60       No                 4/6/1936     161.90        
 B13              1/20/1937    185.90       No                  3/8/1937      192.70       
 B10,B18     1/4/1943      120.30      No                   6/4/1943     142.30       
B7,B9         3/8/1944       139.50     B10                  6/19/1944    148.40       
B13,B11    12/8/1945     150.50     B10                  5/15/1945    164.00      
 B10,B18 
  12/14/1949  198.50     No                    6/12/1950    228.40  
 B7                1/2/1951        239.90     No                    5/3/1951     263.10    
B13,B12     1/20/1954     289.10      No                   much higher 
B13, B11    3/12/1956     500.20      B10                 4/9/1956      518.50
S9,S12         1/3/1957        499.20     No                  Peak - decline to 454.80 on 2/12/1957
B11,B19     3/3/1959       610.88      No                   7/1/1959        650.20

S12 ,S15    1/5/1960       685.50      S15 A/D Lag  Peak - decline to 607.10 on 3/9/1960
  
B17             1/30/1961      650.60     No -B18          5/19/1961    705.90
B5                 1/9/1964       776.60     No                    much higher
B18,B11     1/6/1966      985.46     
S12,S15          Peak - bear market followed.
B13, B12      1/29/1975   705.96     No                   much higher
B9,B13        1/5/1976
     877.83    B10                 3/24/1976   1009.21
B17,B9        1/10/1980     858.96    S4,S12           Peak - bear market followed.
S9
, B6          1/10/1983 1092.35    S12                 Peak - Decline to lower band.
B2, B13        1/21/1985 1261.37     No                   much higher
B17,B13,B6 1/12/1987 2009.42     No                   much higher
B17                 1/11/1989   2206.43   B10                 much higher
B17,B12       1/30/1991 2713.12     B10                 much higher
B7, B13         12/23/1992 3022.56  B10 followed on
second breakout 12/30/1992
                                                                                      Peaked 4/15/1992  3353.76
B6                    2/15/1995 3986.17    No                   much higher
B4,B13          1/29/1996  5304.98     No                  2/7/1996 5549.21
B17,B13        1/13/1997 6709.18    No                   3/11/1997   7085.16
B1,B13           2/9/1998    8180.52    No                  4/22/1998   9176.76
S9                    12/28/1999 11485     S9                   Peak - Decline to lower band.
S9
                    3/4/2005      10941    S15                Peak - Decline to lower band.
  B13                  1/11/2006    11043   No                   3% pull-back - Peaked 5/10/2006  11643
 
S9, B13           1/12/2010  10627    No                    8% pull-back
                           The earlier S9 was a warning that  the breakout would fail.
                          
The current S9 suggests the same thing if there is no new Peerless Buy.
B3,B8                1/3/2011    11671   No                   5/2/2010    12807
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   DJI Charts flat, well-tested resistance at 12350.                
D.BMP (1024854 bytes)

    The leaders of the 2-day rally have been defensive stocks, stocks whose revenue
    does not dip so much in a recession are still in favor.  There are a handful of interesting
    exceptions.  We might want to study them because their high levels of Accumulation
    shows significant insider buying.  They could therefore become the best performers
    of the next 3-12 months.  They are
            
             More Speculative New Highs Today

                                                      AI/200         IP21        CP-65day %
             GRMN    39.56 +.57        139             .321        100%   - CP making 65-day high
             HD           42       +.05        113             .114        100%
             KMR        75.5  +.64          150            .162         100%
             LTS          2.7 +.06             152            .195         100%
             OSIS       48.41 +.11          133            .075         100%
  BUY  OXM       44.07 +.63          158            .269          100%
             PCCC     11.47 +.09         126            .222          100%
  BUY  PGNX     8.84 + .35            153           .276          100%
             RRR        18.7  +.08            129           .658          100%

    Only two, OXM and PGNX show AI/200 score above 150 AND IP21 levels above +.25.
    This is considered a safer and effective way to find new highs that are apt to extend their
    gains nicely.

OXM    Oxford Industries Inc  55 was high in 2007.    4000 employees textiles, apparels  Atlanta, GA
Oxford Industries, Inc. engages in designing, sourcing, and marketing apparel products primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom.

OXM.BMP (1084854 bytes)
PGNX   144 employees -   This was over 90 in 2000.   http://www.progenics.com  Tarrytown, NY
Progenics Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapeutic products to treat the unmet medical needs of patients with debilitating conditions and life-threatening diseases in the United States and internationally. Its primary programs focus on gastroenterology, oncology, and virology.
wpe4.jpg (87626 bytes)

               Over-Textended,   Defensive-Led Rallies Often Lead To Bear Markets

    The bullish MAXCPs are not numerous.. We have now a very defensive market.   Institutions
    are putting their cash more into a  select number of the best perforing REITs,
    Pharmaceuticals, Foods, Tobaccos, Papers, Less Regulated Utilities and Bond Funds.
   
     Did you notice that all of the 15 super defensive trading REITs are above their 65-day ma? 
     They are "yoyo's."

     The following defensive stocks made new highs:
           Big Pharmaceuticals: ABT, AMGN, BMY, IHE, LLY, PFE.
           Foods, Tobaccos and Papers: BGS, KFT, KMB, MCD, MO, PM, SBUX, TSN   .
           Less regulated Utilities: AEP, DTE, DUK, ED, EP, IDU, LNT, OGE, PAA, PGN, PNY, SE, SO,
           VPU, VZ, WEC, XEL, XLU
           Municipal Bonds and Income Funds: KTF, LEO, MFL, MUA, MUI, MYD, MYI, MYJ, NIO, NPI, NPM,
    NPP, NVG

    Below is the Tiger chart of the composite 45 SUPER DEFENSIVE STOCKS that made new
    12-month highs today.

wpe4.jpg (56389 bytes).   

    Excluding tobacco stocks, the most bullish Defensive Stocks, when Power Ranked are
                     NPM Nueveen Prem 14.77, 
                     NPI Nuveen Premier 14.36,
                     VZ Verizon 39.22 (CP bearish divergence but highest AI/200 score in DJI-30)
                     MUI Blackrock Muni - 15.14
   It's hard to recommend these.  They take great patience.  More important, when
   the leadership is this defensive, the market is considered too dangerous by most funds
   to speculate aggressively.  Often this is the environment that precedes a substantial
  decline in the next quarter.  Technically, it is apt to bring bearish divergences and Sell S9s. 
  

 
 
 
 



=====================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================
12/20/11 DJI = 12104   la/ma=1.0222   21-dma ROC= .309  P= -76   IP21= -.086   V= -57    OP= -.096


      12/20/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  27 +5  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                         
   
   308    MINCP stocks      Bearish MINCP Stocks         Bearish.      
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
    36 new highs on NASDAQ.   37   new lows on NASDAQ   
                   
    78  new highs NYSE          9  new lows on NYSE       Bearish.    
 
12/20//2011 GRAPHS ===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

12/20/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  The ETFs CPs are all in Down-trends.  This is short-term BEARISH

   DIA' s  CP iS far below its DOWNtrend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
    Any close of more than
 2.70  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.
  

   SPY's CP is far below its DOWNtrend    It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.
   Any close of more than
 2.69  ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

   QQQ's CP is far below its DOWN-trend   It is considered oversold and apt to keep rallying.
   Any close of more than
1.16  ABOVE the Opening will restore the CP DOWNtrendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

  GLD's CP is far below its DOWN-trendline, oversold and apt to keep rallying..   
   Any close of more than
 7.16   ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

12/20/11     Santa Claus Rally versus December Sell S9.

 
Tomorrow may open down.   The news that
"Oracle results shock investors, shares plunge "
    will hit the QQQ and SPY most.   Bloomberg says that the DJI futures are still up 65, though.

 
The DJI jumped 2.87% today.   That's a big jump even from an oversold condition
   in December at this time.  It will probably continue short-term until the flat resistance 
   at 12250 is reached.  Volume did rise a little today .  A breakout to 12400 would
   force a lot of short-covering and give the DJI a "first and ten" renewal of energy,
   so that 12700-12800, may be reached early next year unless we see more Sell S9s.
                  wpe8.jpg (69233 bytes)

   Whether we get a new S9 will depend on breadth.  If the P-Indicator can rise by +90, it will turn
   positive and this will help avert a new Sell S9.  Because of the way the P-Indicator is constructed,
   using a simple 21-day ma, it will jump by about 90 even if the the number of NYSE
   advances is equal to declines.  So, I would suggest giving the DJI a chance here
   to make a breakout above the flat and well-tested 12200-12250 level.   Peerless has
   always appreciated their bullishness if they are confirmed by good internals even
   if no automatic Buy B10 occurs.

                                                            What To Do

   The Closing Power did turn up as we expected.  DIA was suggested for
   purchase a night ago along with some of the bullish MAXCP stocks.  The
   number of Short Sales should have been reduced at the opening Tuesday.
   Breaks in the CLosing Power downtrend-lines should be used to cover
   other shorts, in my opinion.

   Hot money tends to be poured into fewer and fewer stocks, the longer a
   bull market lasts, making those that do make new highs near the end of the
   market's advance rise relatively steeply.  Profit-taking in these stocks may be
   postponed until 2012 while year-end window-dressing will add fuel to their rises.

   Look at the bullish MAXCP stocks for some trading ideas on the long side,
   for sure.  But consider the best recovering stocks today from among the
year's
   best performers, as shown in the SUPER11 stocks.  Add as a consideration "IP21",
   the current level of Accumulation.  This screening presents us with:
                                                          
Close          AI/200   IP21
             SIMO   Silicon Motion      20.83       128   .21   Taiwan semiconductors
             HCCI   Heritage Crystal  19.00      168   .36     hazardous waste services

   Among the Bullish MAXCP stocks, here are the highest IP21 stocks now.
                                                          
Close          AI/200   IP21
             PVSA   Parkvale Fin.       24.29        139  .419  PA savings and loan
             LQDT   Liquidity Srvcs   38.04       189  .35    DC online auction marketplace

SIMO  Silicon Motion
wpe7.jpg (82892 bytes)
HCCI  Heritage Crystal 
wpe6.jpg (87005 bytes)
PVSA  Parkvale Fin.
wpe4.jpg (83715 bytes)
LQDT  Liquidity Services
LQDT.BMP (1084854 bytes)


.
  
=====================================================================================
                                                         OLDER HOTLINES
=====================================================================================

12/19/11 DJI = 11766   la/ma= 995   21-dma ROC= -.004  P= -167   IP21= -.128   V= -93    OP= -.1

      12/19/2011     BREADTH STATISTICS:
    
  22 -15  MAXCP stocks   Bullish MAXCP Stocks                                                         
   
   487    MINCP stocks       Bearish MINCP Stocks         Bearish.      
                         
                       
MAXCP stocks are those showing Tiger Closing Power making new highs.
                        This suggests heavy Professional Buying.  Applying the Tiger Power Ranker's
                       "bullish" to the MAXCP stocks find those with heavy insider buying and
                        institutional accumulation.  Bearish MINCP stocks show the opposite.
                        Also use the BOTHUPs condition with MAXCPs and BOTHDOWNS MINCPS. 
                 
     4 new highs on NASDAQ.   114   new lows on NASDAQ      Bearish.     
                   
    26  new highs NYSE          97  new lows on NYSE               Bearish.      

  12/19//2011 GRAPHS===> See Key Peerless TigerSoft Index Charts: Industry Groups and ETFs
  Most groups still have a plurality of stocks below their 65-dma. Defensive groups are still favored.  BEARISH   
   DIA   SPY   QQQ    DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI    TigerSPY     TigerQQQ   GLD  SLV  Crude

12/19/2001  ===>
Closing Power (CP) Status Report: KEY ETF CHARTS:
  The ETFs CPs are all in Down-trends.  This is short-term BEARISH

   DIA' s  CP iS in a DOWNtrend   It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.
    Any close of more than
       ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.
  

   SPY's CP is in a DOWNtrend    It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.
   Any close of more than
    ABOVE the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

   QQQ's CP is in a DOWN-trend  It is considered oversold and likely to turn up soon.   
   Any close of more than
    ABOVE the Opening will restore the CP DOWNtrendline.  
   The Opening Power is short-term declining.

  GLD's CP is in a DOWN-trendline and oversold.    Any close of more than  ABOVE  
   the Opening will break the CP DOWN-trendline.  

  The Opening Power is short-term risng.

 12/19/11        Clinched SELL S9 vs Santa Claus Rally (Old B13)
Cover Many of the Profitable Bearish MINCP Short Sales.
Wait for the Closing Power to Turn up To Buy DIA Short-Term.
Bank Stocks Look DIsmal.  Wall Street May Soon Be Outsourced.

There a two ways I see to interpret the extreme Closing Power divergence now from
the rising Opening Power.  The most benign is that Professionals are artificially dropping
prices towards the close to hold the market back while they take in stock in advance of
a year-end rally.  The more bearish interpretation is that Professionals and Institutional
fund managers are selling in a big way because of dangers they foresee and Overseas buyers
are buying at the Opening from market makers who are shorting the openings now regularly.
Which view is more correct? 

Time will, of course, tell.  We cannot get a Buy B13 (as we used to) because of the Sell S9 on 12/5/2011.   B13s cannot now appear until 20 trading days has elapsed since an S9.
Therefore, we are most likely to get a minor one / two week bounce, as in 1999 and 2007, with
January bringing a sell-off.   Remember that the Sell S9 is not reversed yet.  

The Closing Powers are reaching oversold status.  Any close much above the Opening should probably be considered a short-term Buy.  We will take profits in a few of our short sales tonight and
buy some of the most bullish MAXCP stocks early tomorrow.  Keep in mind that tax loss selling
in the weakest stocks often lasts right up to the last day of the year while profit-taking in the
best performing stocks very oftem is delayed for tax reasons to the next year.

As for DIA, the rally may be short-lived just as it was in 2007.  Compare the 2007-2008 DIA and QQQ charts immediately below with the current DIA and QQQ charts which follow. Only short-term traders should Buy DIA on a Close by it above its Opening.  Note that the DIA is significantly stronger and therefore safer than QQQ, I think.

Many, many Americans would judge Wall Street has been "bad" this year, not just naughty, when it comes to fraud, theft of funds, obscene executive pay, Swiss bank account collusion, manipulating markets, rampant insider tradingbuying politicians, exporting jobs and breaching fiduciary responsibilities and putting their own interests above their clients...   Still, it's likely that Santa
will visit Wall Street and boost stock prices as he usually does in the next two weeks.   Perhaps,
because Santa has "sold out", been "bought out" or threatened with out-sourcing!


                                  wpe4.jpg (58794 bytes)
                                         
Wall Street, Obama and the Fed have no choice but to
                                      get the Market to recover now.  If it does not, and falls
                                      back to 6500, say, in the coming election year,they will all
                                      have their power challenged in a way the country has
                                      not seen since the 1930s.  I doubt if Obama will still
                                      be able to protect Wall Street amd deflect Main Street's
                                      anger away with empty populist rhetoric.


BIGBANKS.BMP (1075254 bytes)
           
This is a dire-looking chart of the 7 biggest banks.  I think Wall Street itself
            will soon be outsourced.  This reminds me of when the NKVD under Stalin in the 1930s
            turned on itself, just as the Reign of Terror in the French Revolution ultimately did.      
                

Even if Santa Claus does show up,  the danger remains that a narrow, low-volume rally
now may produce another S9 or S12 early next year.  And by rebounding,  it will make the unsuspecting public and value-minded  investors believe as in January 2008 that all dips
are good buying opportunities.  Most emphatically,  they are not if Peerless has rendered
numerous major Sells in the previous 6 or 8 months. 

For now, let's see if we can get a year-end rally.

DIA - 2007-2008
DIA0708.BMP (1020054 bytes)
QQQQ - 2007-2008
QQQQ0708.BMP (1024854 bytes)
Current DIA - 2011
QQQ11.BMP (1920054 bytes)
Current QQQ - 2011
wpe4.jpg (68833 bytes)

                               I do not consider us to have gotten a Santa Claus Buy B13 now.
                               But below is the track record of B13s where S9's prevent a
                               B13 for 15 trading days.  B13s occur on the first DJI close
                               below the 21-day ma after December 16th and before
                               December 25th.  It will be finished, posted and made into
                               a regular Peerless signal.  3 of the 41 cases brought a paper loss
                               of more than 4%.

                   Buy B13s: 1929-2011

Date             Gain             Paper Loss                    Internals
                                                                              
la/ma   ma-roc       P-I           IP21           V-I            OPct
12/17/28      15.7%          none                         .961    .034    -38    -.027    -518      .044
12/18/29        1.3%           
5.7%                         .999     .875     42     .116       -47      .034
12/17/30         3.8%          none                        .926    -.988  -125    .034   -599      -.246
12/17/31         5.8%        
  3.5%                         .833  -4.28   -242   -.285   -936     -.543
12/20/32         6.0%         
3.7%                         .984  -.814    -75    -.090   -186     -.143

12/18/33      12.0%         
1.95%                       .974  -.215    -42    -.226   -158     -.107
12/17/34        4.9%       
   1.3%                        .993    .141    28    -.029         -7      .313
12/17/35        9.1%         none                         .980    .472   -51    -.214    -303      -.01
12/17/36      13.0%           
2.7%            .997  -.269   -54    -.143    -264     -.234
none in 1937 - 1940
12/17/41        2.4%         
1.6%           .993  -.461  -58     -.129      -95     -.112
none in 1942 - 1945

12/17/45        4.6%        
0.7%
none in 1947 - 1952 
12/22/53        7.0%         
0.6%
none in 1954 - 1952 
12/19/55        7.6%       
   4.0%  
none in 1956
12/17/57       Big Gain        none
none in 1958-1960
2/18/61     
  -1.8%            1.8%

2/18/62          9.6%       none
none in 1964-1965
12/19/66      11.1%         
  1.7%
none in 1967-1968
12/17/69        5.2%    none
none in 1970-1971
12/18/72        3.4%          
1.3%
12/17/73        5.4%    none

12/17/74        Big Gain    none
12/22/75       20.3%      none
none in 1976
12/19/77      
-1.8%       1.8%
none in 1978-1979
12/17/80        4.8%    none
12/17/81      
-4.3%         8.6%
                       B13 could not reversed a Sell in a Bear Market.
none in 1982

12/19/83        3.4%    none
12/17/84        big gain    none
none in 1985
12/18/86      25.8%      
0.8%
  none in 1987 -1988
12/18/89       4.2%      none
  none in 1990
12/17/91    13.9%        none

  12/17/92    big gain   
0.5%
  none in 1993-1994
  12/17/95     9.3%       
0.8%
  12/17/96    8.3%        none
  12/18/97  17.1%       
2.5%
  12/17/98  22.3%       none
  none in 1999

  12/19/00   6.3%       
2.5%
  12/17/01   2.3%       
2.8%
  12/17/02   2.8%       
2.3%
  none in 2003-2004
  12/19/05    6.8%     
1.6%
  none in 2006-2007
  12/22/08   5.8%     none

*12/17/09  1.0%     
  4.8%            
     (*There has been an S9 on 11/13/2009 )
   none in 2010-2011