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TigerSoft and Peerless Daily Hotline
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                                          New HOTLINE location

                      (C) 1985-2013 William Schmidt, Ph.D.  www.tigersoft.com       All rights strictly reserved.  
                             --->  To renew this Hotline, order here $350 (check) -    $360(Visa/MC)  
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        wpe9.jpg (3880 bytes)   A Guide To Profitably Using The Tiger Nightly HOTLINE

                      TigerSoft and Peerless Links, Older Hotlines...
                                             Please report  broken links to william_schmidt@hotmail.com

=====================================================================================
               
                   1/28/2013     Buy B10    How much higher can we go?  Until there
                    is a Peerless Sell signal, the NYSE A/D Line breaks its uptrend or
                    the key ETFs' Closing Powers break their uptrends, I think we must
                    simply stay heavily long the highest Accumulation stocks and the
                    strongest big ETFs.

             1/28/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13882 -14  la/ma=1.029   21droc =   .679  P=  +553     Pch= +21
                                            IP21 =
+.284    V = +59   Opct = +.39     
wpe459D.jpg (65066 bytes)

                                   Value Line Is Already Making 12-Mo Highs.
wpe11.jpg (48833 bytes)

                    Are we in a new "secular bull market"?  Ones that last only 4-5 years
                    are often said to be "cyclical bull markets"?   There are many ways
                    one could try to answer  this important question.  

                    My first reaction to this question, as a technician, is to look at the charts.
                    It suggests more caution now.  But not immediately. 

                   The longest DJI advances, those of the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1980s
                    and 1990s occurred after breakouts from long bases.   Breakouts from such
                    bases are more bullish than  simply a recovery back to an old high.  Presumably,
                    there is a lot of pent-up energy that a breakout releases.  By contrast, now,
                    we really do not have a long, multii-year base now that we can be said to be
                    breaking out of.   Rather, the advance above 12000 seems more like a
                    short-covering advance that begun in earnest once the right shoulder apex was
                    surpassed.    See the long-term chart below.

                    Technically, one would expect that the 2007 closing high at 14165 will pose
                    a lot of resistance because of how deep and scary the intervening decline
                    was down to 6500.  This is a long-standing principle of technical analysis.
                    In fact, it is the failed rallies back up to the previous high that is what helps
                    set up a base which when broken brings about secular bull markets.

                    In fact, there were 3 failed rallies up to 110-120 between 1916 and 1924.
                    I count 5 failled rallies up to 980-1050 between 1966 and 1982.  And there
                    were no less than 8 failed rallies between 150-210 in the period 1937-1948.
                    It was only when the DJI broke out above these bases that the DJI
                    made its longest advances
, as shown below.

                                      Aug 1921 - Aug 1929 (8 years)
                                       Feb 1934 - Aug 1937 (3 years, 6 months
                                       April 1942- May 1946 (4 years, 1 month)
                                      Sept 1953 - November 1961 (8 years, 2 months
                                       Aug 1982- Aug 1987  (5 years)
                                       Oct 1990 - July 1997 (6 years, 9 months) - continuation of 1982-1987 advance
                                       Oct 2002 - Oct  2007 (5 years) - recovery based on very easy credit for homowners.
                                       March 2009 - ?   - recovery based on very easy credit for big banks. 

                      This is not to say that Federal Reserve policies cannot have a huge impact on
                      the length of a bull market.  The long 5-year bull market from October 2002
                      to October 2007 can be explained in part by how low the Federal Reserve
                      set the Discount rates in 2001 and 2002, between 1% and 2%.
                      This helped set the stage for the housing boom that followed.
                      The FED's lax regulation of the housing bubble and bank stocks' leverage
                       go a long way in explaining the unusual length of the 2002-2007 bull market. 

                      The present bull market, which started in March 2009 is now almost 4 years
                      old.   But, if anything, the Fed is even more accomodating.  And rhetoric aside, the
                      Obama Administration and Congress seem just as accomodating to Wall Street
                      and big banks.  So, I would think, the bull market will continue.  But it will take
                      a different shape.  As was true from 1967-1969, I think the biggest gains
                      will be made in smaller stocks;  the DJI, itself, will have a harder time, I suspect,
                      getting past 14200.  The greater relative strength now seen in the Value Line
                      and Russell-2000 is probably a sign of things to come.                                  

                             wpe11.jpg (4016 bytes)bigchdow.gif (15965 bytes)


                      IWM (Russell 2000) and Peerless Automatic Signals
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                                                               OLDER HOTLINES
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                 1/25/2013     Buy B10    Buying Stampede?  Don't Get Tranpled.

                  The DJI has now risen 11 of the last 12 days and is less than 200 points from
                  its all-time high closing of  14164.93 on 10/9/2007.  DIA's Closing Power has now risen
                  12 straight days.  More on these streaks historically Monday night. .

                 wpe16.jpg (32455 bytes)
                                         1927 Cowboys, Horses, Bulls Stampede  - W.R. Leigh                                                            
                                                           Yippie - Yi - Yo!

               The rush into stocks this January has ample precedent, as I showed a week ago.
               Tops are seldom made in the last two weeks of January.  But usually January breakouts
                that are going to advance past February also produce B12s and/or Buy B4s.   This
                requires a strng of closes above the 3.0% upper band and very good breadth.  All 8 of
                January take-offs with a Buy B4 or B12 advanced into March before peaking and then
                falling back to their 2.5% lower band.  Such enhancing Buy signals have not yet occurred.

                                                 January Take-Offs since 1966:

                                                          First Decline                        First Decline
                                                          to 2% lower band                 to 3.5% lower band.

               1967  Buy B6, B10  ...                 2/8/1967                                5/8/67
               1975    Buy B6, B4, B12 ...          3/18/1975                              3/18/1975
               1976    Buy B9, B10, B12,B4      3/24/1976                              3/24/1976
               1985    Buy B4                            3/1/1985                                none in 1985
               1986    Buy B4                            3/27/1986                              5/29/1986
               1987    Buy B6, B14, B4             4/6/1987                                4/6/1987
               1989   Buy B10, B4                     2/7/1989                               10/9/1989
               1992    Buy B17, B10, B4           3/4/1992                                 6/1/1992
               1993    Buy B18                          2/5/1993                               none in 1993
               1995    Buy B6, B18                     7/12/1995                              none in 1995
               1996    Buy B4                             3/6/1996                                3/19/1996
               1997    Buy B17, B4                     3/10/1997                              3/10/1997
               2011   Buy B18                            2/10/2011                              2/10/2011
               2012    B6, B12, B10                    3/16/2012                              5/1/2012  
               2013    B14, B10                           -------------                             ---------------     
                                                     More cases and their charts

               The Closing Powers are all rising, though they are over-extended short-term. 
                It is not often that we get 12 straight days where the close is above the opening.

               One warning sign of a top that is definitely NOT present is a rising XAU, the
               Philadelphia Stock Exchange of 15 Precious Metals' Mining Stocks.  In fact,
               gold stocks now make a disproportionate share of the Bearish MINCP stocks:
               EXK, ANV, ABX and NEM.   I did a study of the XAU and its ITRS (50-day
               pct change of XAU minus 50-day pct change of DJI) as a predictor of the DJI.
               The 2012 year-end and January 2013 weekness of XAU's ITRS also occurred
               in 1995 and 2003, when new bull markets were being sprung.

                                 See new Blog --->  XAU As Predictor of DJI: 1984-2013

                                      A Perfect Confluence of Bullish Factors

               Much of the rally stems from the end of tax-loss selling owing to the desire of
               many to capture gains in 2012 while taxes are lower and some of it in beaten-down
               stocks is the result of the end of tax-loss selling for 2012.  But without question,
               there is more retail customer optimism.  Gold stocks are weak.  There is more
               confidence.   Interest rates will not go up until the official unemployment level
               drops to 6.5%.  And Republican threats to bring another debt-crisis as in 2011
               have dried up.   All of which has produced a lot of hasty short-covering.  We can
               actually see the effects of this is stocks like NFLX, which has rallied 60% in
               the last two days.   Its short interest fell from 13.2 million shares to 10.1 million
               on 1/15. So, we can imagine how stressed these short sellers have been.  And this
               could easily become a pattern, as one group of professionals target the shares
               of other stocks with big short interest levels when earnings hold up, as was the
               case for Netflix.  

wpe18.jpg (77734 bytes)
                  
                                                     SHORT-COVERING RALLIES:
                                                     How Can We Find Them Early-On?


                    If you look closely at the chart above you will see that the day before it starting
                    rising so rapidly, its Closing Power rose back above its rising 21-dma.  My friend
                    Fran in San Diego has suggested that this would be worth screening for.  Accordingly,
                    I will be posting on the Tiger Data page each night all the stocks whose CP moves
                    back above its 21-dma and all those that fall back below its declining 21-dma.
                    These will be called CPCROSSA  and CPCROSSD.  I will start recording the
                    count of each every night here, because I believe that this should help us catch sight of the
                    short-term swings of the market.  You can easily see the biggest short positions
                    on th\e NASDAQ here.    I think it will be productive to start following these stocks
                    with the biggest, say, 50 short positions.  I understand that some may prefer to
                    work with the stocks with the biggest short interest.  That should also be possible.
                    Below is our Tiger Index of the 42 most shorted stocks. 
              
MASTBIGS.BMP (1032054 bytes)
             


              1/25/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13896 +71   la/ma=1.033   21droc =   .671  P=  +532     Pch= +61
                                            IP21 =
+.286    V = +63   Opct = +.384      

wpe19.jpg (69464 bytes)

DATAV.BMP (314454 bytes)              

              1/25/2013
    To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 455    MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/25/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  49 +14    MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/25/2013)

           ---> 124 New Highs on NASDAQ   7   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 219   New Highs on NYSE    8new lows. BULLish plurality  



=====================================================================================
            
              1/24/2014    Buy B10    AAPL's 12% plunge today might easily have unsettled
               a lesser market.  But we are still seeing heavy Professional buying and what
               looks like might be a gathering speculative binge.  See below how steady is the
               rise of the blue Closing Powers.  

               Last night, I showed how reliably bullish are January Automatic Buy B10s
               and breakout surges.   The DJI round number 14000 is expected to be both
               a magnet and a barrier, too

             
The Closing Powers for DIA, SPY and QQQ are much stronger than their
              Opening Powers.  The pattern is now well established: dull openings followed
              by impressive closes.  I suspect we will see the Opening Powers turning up
              before too long.  Then if Closings remain strong, we will see even more impressive
              gains.   Needless to say, AAPL's weakness is spoiling the QQQ for the bulls.

DIA
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SPY
wpe15.jpg (71278 bytes)
IWM
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              1/24/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 448    MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/24/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  35     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/24/2013)

           ---> 111  New Highs on NASDAQ   5   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 218   New Highs on NYSE     9  new lows. BULLish plurality  

 
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          1/23/2014
   Buy B10    January Automatic Buy B10s Are Reliably Quite Bullish.
             The round number 14000 will likely act as a magnet and a barrier, too.   For now,
             institutions are still taking positions aggressively for more of a rally that could
             easily last until March or April for the DJI and much longer for the high Accumulation/
             high Closing Power "Bullish MAXCP Stocks".

              1/23/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13779 +67   la/ma=1.029   21droc =   .416  P=  +402      Pch= -58
                                            IP21 =
+.238    V = -7   Opct = +.144      

DATAVO.BMP (1036854 bytes)

              Today's DJI jump owed entirely to IBM's 8.64 gain.  There were slightly more decliners
              than advancers on the NYSE.  Some of the big biotechs, AMGN, ALXN, BIIB, ILMN
              and TEVA have broken down below falling 65-day ma.  And AAPL's earnings out after
              the close are said to be disappointing. 

              But the SPY, DIA and IWM Closing Powers are still rising and, above all, the history
              of Peerless automatic Buy B10s suggests prices will most likely continue to rise without
              much of a pullback for another 6 weeks, at least.  Of the 10 January automatic Buy B10s
              since 1928, only one was followed by a decline to the lower band.  That was in 1979.
              The 1983 case might also be considered a case, too.  But in these cases the declines
              were temporary and relatively shallow.  Holding the best performing stocks worked out
              very well in those years, too.  As you can see in the table below, January DJI-breakouts
              which were only judged Buy B10 breakouts (No B10 appears in their cases) mostly
             (60%) also were followed by rallies that lasted, as least, until March. 

              Our present 2013 B10 case shows the highest IP21 value (current level of the Tiger Accum. Index)
              of any of the January automatic B10s.  No doubt, there is an institutional rush into the market.
              I would think the DJI itself will face very heavy overhead resistance at the round number 14000.
              But, rather than try to be too clever, I think we should just let the market run until there
              is a new automatic Peerless Sell or the Closing Powers reverse course.

  ------   January Buy B10s  since 1928   ------------------------------------------------
                                      Gain       la/ma     ann-roc       P-I       ch     AdjP-I     IP21  V-I     Opct
   Current Case
                 1/22/2013                      1.026   .411   460   +57  +460    .263  12    .146

  1. Auto   1/25/1943     +14.6%    1.028  .516  108  +19   +549  .113  +57  .121
                                  No pullback... Up steadily until May.
     Judged 1/15/1954    big gain     1.017 .313    82  _37  +275   .094   +13  .046  
                                 No pullback...Up steadily until August
2.  Auto  1/5/1961       big gain     1.016  .569  120 +28  +351  .085  +129  .18   
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until May.
      Judged 1/8/1964    big gain     1.015  .222   33   +13  +93    -.004  -171  .37
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until May.
  3.  Auto  1/12/1967    +6.9%     1.033  .14  144   +3      +286   .011     +3  .109  
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until May.
  4.   Auto  1/22/1971
   +8.8%     1.024  .547  322  +11   +705    .114    +2  .545
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until May.
5.   Auto  1/6/1972     +5.6%       1.033  .694   246  +13     +528   .066    +2  .391
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until April.
       Judged 1/27/1975    big gain   1.076  1.636  422   +44  +802  +.134  +3   .492
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until July.
6.    Auto  1/7/1976    +12.3%       1.057 1.124  286   +35    +539   .200    +2  .534
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until March,
  7.   Auto  1/15/1979    +6.9%     1.042  .568  133    +42     +252   .108     +2   .321
                                     Pullback to lower band...Then up until April.
    ( 1/7/1983     Sell S12                1.04     .334    48   +12   +95  -.062  +1     .002 )
                                     Pullback to lower band... Then up until October.
       Judged 1/21/1985   Big gain  1.041    .525  237   +38  +469  +.097  +8  -.113
                                    Pullback to point of breakout in March and then up strongly.
      
Judged 1/7/1987    20.6%      1.033   .426  -11    +57     -22  +.149 -3      .096
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until July.
  8.   Auto  1/12/1989
    big gain     1.023  .454    118   +21    +204   .078   +11  .185
                                     First peak was 2/8/1989 with decliune to lower band.
9.    Auto  1/31/1990
   big gain      1.051  .367    109    +18   +201   .062   +7  .133
                                     No pullback until March.
       (Auto 12/27/92     +6.6%  no pullback until April).
       Judged 1/29/1996   4.6%      1.029   .484  88     +9    +113  +.198    -7      .183
                                     No pullback...Up steadily until March
        Judged 1/10/1997  3.8%      1.035   .424 102   -11  +.125    +.055   -5      .304
                                    Pullback below lower band started with S9 on 2/12/1997.
        Judged 1/7/1999                   1.05    .614   23    -58    +22  +.075   +2     .13
                                     DJI immediately pulled back to the lower band. 
        Judged 1/11/2006               1.016    .291  358   -14     +330   +.034   +57   .116
                                     DJI immediately pulled back half way to the lower band.
        Judged 1/11/2010               1.016    .371  533  +10     +518   +.017   +65   .40
                                     DJI immediately pulled back to the lower band.
         Judged 1/3/2011   +9.7%    1.016   .320  277  +11     +277  +.001   +117 .135
                                      No pullback...Up steadily until May
  10.    Auto  1/18/2012   +4.9%      1.023  .690    553   +46   +553   .125  +95  .108
                                     No pullback until March.
                                                                  

             1/23/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 469    MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/23/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  30     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/23/2013)

           ---> 75(-21) New Highs on NASDAQ   4   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 180  (-72) New Highs on NYSE     1  new lows. BULLish plurality  



=====================================================================================
             Mid-Morning 1/23/2014 Comment
             I left out the red words in the key first sentence in last night's Hotline.

                               Peerless remains on a Buy B14.  The new Buy B10 signal today
                               registers the new closing high for the DJI more than it shows how
                               much higher the DJI can go.  Volume did not rise on the DJI's new
                               high necause the SP-500, Value Line and NYSE had already made
                               made new highs.

               Mid-Morning additional commentary:

                             The type of "V" bottom we are seeing  does sometimes being a pullback
                             after another 1% to 2% more DJI gain, but, on the other
                             hand, if you look at all the cases where the Peerless "V-I" was lagging
                             and negative,  as was true on Friday's close,  you can see that there
                             are many more historical cases of a continued move up than a retreat of 3% or 4%.

                             How much higher?  I would say, as long as the Closes are strong, the
                             market is going to keep  rising.   But a very strong opening (75 points up
                             or more) and then a weak close would be a reversal sign.  The DJI 14000
                             round number is the next most likely level of high resistance.

 
            1/22/2013    Peerless remains on a Buy B14.  The Buy registers the new closing high
            for the DJI more than it sshows how much higher the DJI can go.  Volume did not rise
            on the DJI's new high necause the SP-500, Value Line and NYSE had already made
            made new highs.   Consolidation just beneath the old highs would have been more bullish.
            But as you can see from the Bullish MAXCP stocks there are a great many stocks
            show ing very high levels of Accuulation as they break out to new 12-mon highs.  Normally
            these bulges occur 6 months to a year, or a more, before the final new highs. 

            This is a broad advance. 27 of the 30 groups of stocks we follow show a majority of
            their component stocks are above their 65-dma.

            1/22/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
        
DJI with Peerless Signals   DJI-volume
         
DIA with CP   SPy with CP    QQQ with CP   IWM with CP     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 524  MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/22/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  28 +2     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/22/2013)

           ---> 160   New Highs on NASDAQ   2   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 321  New Highs on NYSE     3  new lows. BULLish plurality  

              --->    1/22/2013  Stock Sector Ranking: 27 up and 3 down.
                          Strongest:
                        12/22/2013                    12/24/2012          12/12/2012  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Homebldg       100.0% +29.2%          70.8% +4.1        66.7%
BigBanks        100.0% +14.3%           85.7% 28.6        57.1%
Pipeline
         100.0%  +83.3%       16.7%             16.7%

Reits
              97.6% +14.0%          82.6% 61.2       21.4%
Transp            97.4% +19.0%             73.4% +8.8         64.6%
Military             96.3% +11.1%             85.2% +18.5       66.7%
Chem               94.6%   +26.7%           67,9% +3.6     64.3%
Insurance        93.6% +21.9%             61.7%
-.4        68.1%
Gaming  
       93.3% 26.6%             66.7% +20   44.7%
Finance           92.7% +19.1%             73.6%  19.1         54,5%

For.ETFS         90.9% +8.5%             81.8%
-8.9        90.9%
IndMaterials   90.6% +21.1%          69.5% +6.2    63.3%

            Should We Worry about the Negative V (Volume) -Indicator Reading with the DJI
            with the DJI 2..3% over the 21-dma in a rising market with DJI at or near 12-month high,
            as was true Friday?
The studies below show that without a Peerless Sell signal, there is a much
            greater probability of a continued advance than a decline back as far as the lower band
            or the rising 65-dma.   It should be added, though that a negative NNC by the V-I does
            make more reliable a Peerless Sell signal, should one occur
.

            First here are some cases since 1945:
                 
                                 la/ma         ann-roc        P-I       ch      AdjP-I       IP21     V-I       Opct
            3/21/1946       1.026     .037         51     57      202      .09    -93     -.071
                               DJI rallied from 196.7 to 212.50 (sell S5/S4) before starting a 4.5 mo  23% decline

            7/23/1951     1.024      .253           6      22      21        .174 -122 .044
                                DJI rallied from 255.7 to 276.40 before retreating to the lower band.

            12/7/1952     1.025      .329         46       4      141       .029  -10  .066
                                DJI rallied from 267.00 to 275.40 before retreating to the lower band

            11/4/1954     1.025     .12          -18      12     -59       -.055    -148  -.011
                                 DJI surged into all-time high territory a month later and rallied strongly until 1956.  to 275.40

            12/6/1956     1.029    -.067         -83     -20     -262    -.078   -316  -.143
                                DJI rallied from 492.70 to 499.50 (S9/S12) before retreating to 454.80.

            11/6/1958     1.023    .341           37     6          117     .077   -132   .076
                                DJI rallied from 554.90 to 567.50 (S9/S12) before briefly dipping back to  540.50.

            2/24/1959     1.023   .137            37     4       112       -.056  -110   .075
                                DJI rallied from 602.90 to 678.10 (S4) and then fell back to 616.50

            5/17/1960     1.028   .259           64    19       187        .04     -57   -.063
                                DJI fell back to lower band, only 2% to rising 65-dma buy.

            11/9/1962     1.024   .265              54     1        157        .059     -39   .033
                                 DJI rallied from 722.30 to 734.30 three days later and then collapsed 27% in  7 months.

          
  4/7/1972     1.023   .215          -75   -5      -159        .064      -1      .018
                                  DJI fell back to lower band. Also S9/S15.

              8/4/1972     1.024   .265              54     1        157        .059     -39   .033
                                 DJI rallied from 722.30 to 734.30 three days later and then fell to 2/5% lower band.

             11/1/1972     1.026   .178             42   38          91    -.046      -1     -.007
                                 DJI rallied from 958.54 to 1051.70 over next 10 weeks.  Buy B10.

              1/5/1973      1.023   .238          -77   -7      -149    .039        -2     .053
                                 This was major top.  Accompanying S9/S12/S15.

            
4/10/1975    1.024   .162         -84     25      -158   .042      -1    -.15
                                 DJI rallied from 781.29 to 881.81 over next 3 months.

             6/17/1976      1.027   .168           15    36       29    .082        0     .052
                                    DJI fell back to lower band. Also S2/S5.

             10/11/1978     1.032   .068       -126  12      -261   -.124     -4    -.101
                                    DJI fell back to lower band. Also S9/S12

             
8/7/1979    1.024      .097       +50    11    +95   .181      0      +/047
                                 DJI rallied from 863.14 to 897.611 over next 3 months.

              I will check the rest.  But the pattern is clear.  Without a Peerless Sell,
              the type of negative non-confirmation we now see is not likely to prevent
              higher prices.

            The difference in outcome between the next two cases show that the
            rate of change of the 21-dma and the level of IP21 are very important.
            The 1986 and 1987 cases show that January bullishness over-rides
            the V-I NNC (negative non-confirmation).

                                  la/ma      ann-roc   P-I        ch      AdjP-I       IP21     V-I       Opct
             10/18/1985   1.023   -.009      -1         47   -2        -.031       -2      .087
                                    DJI fell back to lower band.  There was no Peerless Sell presently.
             but
                                  la/ma      ann-roc     P-I           ch      AdjP-I       IP21       V-I       Opct
             10/14/1986   1.025   +.318       -34      66     -67      +.052    -1    .095
                                   DJI began a huge advance,
             1/31/1986      1.024  +.258      + 98      38     +187   +.088   -3    .058
                                     DJI rose 15% in next 10 weeks.
            
1/5/1987      1.024  +.149      -88       73     -173    +.094   -13   -.121
                                     DJI rose 15% in next 10 weeks.
              1
2/23/1992 1.039   +.368    -32       44       -59    +.064    -8    .054
                                    DJI rose 19o% in next 14 weeks.
             
11/6/1996   1.025   +.417     45         62        58      +.094    -3  .062
                                    DJI rose 10% in next 4 months.
              2
/4/1998    1.037   +.229       55         3         85     +.122    -12  .062
                                    DJI rose 10% in next 10 weeks.
            
and the big rally in 1999 despite multiple V-I NNCs.

              10
/15/2003    1.025   +.294      305     -102     295      +.016    -30  .026
                                    DJI rose 10% in next 3 months.

             
and the big rally in 2009 despite multiple V-I NNCs.



            Other cases of interest..
                                      
la/ma    ann-roc     P-I            ch      AdjP-I       IP21      V-I       Opct
             10/18/1991        1.023    .209     +73        -4      135      .027        -3    -.038
                                                                                                  low
                                    DJI fell back to lower band.  There was no Peerless Sell presently.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Next here are the cases where the DJI was testing it earlier high from a few months before
           after a 7.5% to 13.5% decline.

            Date              Size of                           Outcome
                                 Intervening   
                                 Decline

            Jan 1981       9.1%                            Nominal new high and then decline to lower band. Sell S9
                                          Peak 1/6/1981  la/ma          ann-roc        P-I       ch      AdjP-I       IP21     V-I       Opct
                                          Key Values:     1.059      .381          61   43      107      .031  -1    .11
                                          V-Bottom:      11/20/1980 -> 12/11/1980 -> 1/6/1981
                                          Length 1 months and 17 days.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Feb 1980       11.0%                          False breakout and 16% decline: S9/S12/S15
                                          False breakout: 2/13/1980   la/ma    ann-roc      P-I    ch   AdjP-I        IP21    V-I        Opct
                                          Key Values:                          1.028     .478     -26   1   -50          -.01   -1      .168
                                         Semi-V-Bottom: 10/5 -> 11/7 ->2/13/1980
                                         Length 3 months and 8 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Dec 1959      9.0%                     "False breakout".  Nominal new closing high (breakout)
                                            and 10 month decline.   Sell S12 and S15
                                                                                               la/ma        ann-roc   P-I      ch    AdjP-I     IP21       V-I     Opct
                                            Peak's key values:  1/5/1960    1.018    .400        +4   +6   13        -.038 -170 .095
                                            Semi-V-Bottom: 8/3/59 -> 9/22/59 ->1/5/1960
                                            Length 5 months and 2 days.

=======================================================================================
         1/18/2013    Peerless remains on a Buy B14.   The DJI has made a new 12-month closing high.
         It still needs to close above 13700 to achieve what will look like a price breakout, because the
         close is above the previous 12 months' highest intra-day levels.  The S&P-500, NYSE and
         Value Line have already done this.    Apple is still lagging.  This helps account for why the
         QQQ and NASDAQ are lagging. 

         The history of the DJI forming V-Bottom Price bottoms, like we see now, and other
         bottom formations that last less than 5 months seems worth studying.  Of the 17 cases,
         only 6 produced a strong advance.   11 brought declines, 6 of which took the DJI far
         below the lower band.  Fortunately, without a Peerless Sell signal, there were no
         significant declines below the lower band.   I gleaned these from no less than 48
         bottoms made with a low 7.5% to 13.5% below the highest close. 

         1/18/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13650 +54   la/ma=1.023   21droc =   .267  P=  +403      Pch= -26
                                            IP21 =
+.202    V = -12   Opct = +.054

         The still negative -12 V-I readings now may be a problem but it is contradicted by high
          IP21 readings of +.202. I think what is going on now is that we see selling in some higher
          priced, big growth stocks,  AAPL MRK, TEVA and AMGN, for example, and that some
          money is being  used to buy smaller companies.  But growth stocks are still favored, 
          Specualtion has not gone to an extreme.  While the sample 217 Low-Priced Stocks in
          our Tiger download show 69.6% are above their 65-dma, 79.4% of our Higher Priced
          stocks above their 65-dma.   Re-investment is typical as a new year starts. 

          Conclusion: as long as the Closing Powers for the key ETFs are rising and there is no
          Peerless sell signal,     I would give the market more chance to advance.  As I noted a
          few days ago, very  few tops are made in the second half of January.
At the same time,
          we should watch to see if there is an increase in stocks appearing in our MINCP
          group. 

                                       .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   7.5%-13.5% Corrections
                                     That Last Less Than 6 Months
                                           and Their Outcome
                               Ranked from Shortest to Longest


                         Size of                 Outcome
                         Intervening  
                         Decline
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Case     7.6%        Close above 13700 for clear breakout.  Outcome?   No new Peerless Sell
                                           V-Bottom: 9/14/2012  > 11/15/2012 bottom > new closing high 1/18/2013
       Length 3 months and 4 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous Case ranked by length:
                            9.1%              January 1981 Nominal new high and then decline to lower band. Sell S9
                                          Peak 1/6/1981  la/ma         ann-roc       P-I       ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                          Key Values:     1.059      .381         61   43     107      .031   -1     .11
                                          V-Bottom:     11/20/1980 -> 12/11/1980 -> 1/6/1981
     Length 1 months and 17 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         9.8%                April 1997 Breakout followed by 15% rise in 3 months. B4
                                           Breakout 5/5/1997   la/ma         ann-roc       P-I       ch      AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                           Key Values:            1.07         1.221    +249 +44    +304    .183   +37 .175
                                          V-Bottom Dates: 3/11/97 -> 4/11/97 ->5/5/97
    Length 1 months and 25 days.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         10%           April 1935 Bull market continues.
                                           Breakout and pull-back only to point of breakout.
                                           Breakout key values
                                                                     la/ma        ann-roc        P-I      ch      AdjP-I      IP21    V-I       Opct
                                               4/22/1935       1.071     1.231       80    -6     449      .169    74    .394
                                          V-Bottom: 2/18/35 -> 3/18/35 -> 4/18
       Length 2 months
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                           8.0%        September 1986 Nominal new high and then 9% decline. Earlier S9
                                         Peak 9/4/1986  la/ma         ann-roc       P-I       ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                         Key Values:    1.032    .916         214    29      410     .26     20     .384
                                         V-Bottom: 7/2 -> 8/1 -> 9/4/1986
      Length 2 months and 2 days.   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         8.1%          October 2007    False breakout 9% decline. S4
                                           False BO     10/1/2007    la/ma         ann-roc       P-I          ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                           Key Values:                    1.038         .747    +313  +110 +282    +.089  +73  .346
                                           V-Formation Dates: 7/19/2007 -> 8/16/2007 -> 10/1/2007
     Length 2 months and 13 days.              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        8.0%            August 1951. DJI pulled back 1%, rose 4% and then fell to the lower band.
                                            Peak 8/6/1951    la/ma         ann-roc      P-I       ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                            Key Values         1.034     .707       142    8        433    .199   126    .262
                                            Semi-V-Bottom: 5/3 -> 6/28 - 8/6/1951
       Length 3 months and 1 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        11.4%          July 1936 Bull market continues.
                                            Breakout and pull-back only to breakout for one day.
                                            Breakout   key values
                                                                     la/ma        ann-roc        P-I      ch      AdjP-I      IP21    V-I       Opct
                                               7/17/1936     1.029       .489          35  -12    155     -.004    11    .254
                                            Semi-V formation: 4/6/1936 -> 4/29/1936 -> 7/15/1936
         Length 3 months and 9 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        11.0%          February 1980 False breakout and 16% decline: S9/S12/S15
                                            False breakout: 2/13/1980   la/ma    ann-roc     P-I    ch   AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                            Key Values:                         1.028    .478     -26   1   -50         -.01   -1     .168
                                            Semi-V-Bottom: 10/5 -> 11/7 ->2/13/1980
        Length 3 months and 8 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       13.5%            October 1950. DJI peaked on breakout and declined to lower band. Sell S8.
                                                                                               la/ma    ann-roc    P-I   ch     AdjP-I      IP21    V-I       Opct
                                             Peak Key Values: 10/4/1950   1.03    .595     143 15    518     .133   169  .445
                                             Semi-V-Bottom: 6/12 -> 7/14 ->10/3/50
         Length 3 months and 21 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      10%               August 1956. DJI fell 10% after testing previous high.  Sell S2.
                                            Peak 8/1/1956    la/ma    ann-roc      P-I     ch    AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                            Key values:       1.015   .826        88    5       282    .108    33     .496
                                            Semi-V-Formation:    9/23 -> 10/10 -> 11/5/55
        Length 3 months and 25 days.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         10%            April 1946: Breakout but quick decline back 2.5% lower band.
                                            Breakout point:
                                                                    la/ma        ann-roc        P-I      ch      AdjP-I      IP21    V-I       Opct
                                            4/9/1946          1.048        .909       125     37    488     .237   109    .263
                                            Semi-V Bottom: 2/4/46 -> 2/26 -> 4/9/46
         Length 4 months and 5 days.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       8.6%              September 2012 False Breakout. 8% decline develops.   Sell S4
                                             False BO 9/13/2012    la/ma         ann-roc       P-I       ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct
                                             Key Values:                 1.026       .332     +403  +86 +403     +.06   +59 +.126
                                             V-Bottom: 5/1/2012 > 6/4/2012 -> 9/13/2012
         Length 4 months and 12 days.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       9.5%             May 1990     breakout followed by re-test of breakout point and 5% rally.
                                            Breakout 5/21/1990
                                                                    la/ma        ann-roc        P-I      ch      AdjP-I      IP21    V-I       Opct
                                            Key Values:     1.04       .649       101   54      198      .122   19   .455
                                            Formation Bottom Dates: 1/3/90 ->1/30/90 ->5/21/1990
l        Length 4 months and 18 days.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       9.0%             December 1959.     Nominal new closing high (breakout) and 10 month decline.
                                            Sell S12 and S15 called this "false breakout".
                                                                                               la/ma        ann-roc   P-I     ch    AdjP-I     IP21     V-I     Opct
                                            Peak's key values:  1/5/1960    1.018    .400       +4   +6   13       -.038 -170 .095
                                            Semi-V-Bottom: 8/3/59 -> 9/22/59 ->1/5/1960
         Length 5 months and 2 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       10.6%           October 1965. 2% rise and 4% pullback and more new highs. B11 on oullback.
                                                                                                  la/ma     ann-roc   P-I     ch    AdjP-I     IP21    V-I     Opct
                                         Breakout's key values 10/19/1965 1.013   .211     38     -7    106    -.073    8 -.024
                                         Semi-V-Bottom: 5/14/65 -> 6/28/65 ->10/19/1965
         Length 5 months and 5 days.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        10%              November 1955.    DJI stopped at previous peak exactly for 2 months
                                             and then re-tested lower band before running to new highs.
                                                                                             la/ma     ann-roc    P-I      ch     AdjP-I       IP21    V-I       Opct      
                                        Peak's Key Values  11/16/1955 1.05   1.064     131 -10  + 376    .130   119   .439
                                            Bottom Formation: 9/23/55 -> 10/11/55 -> 3/6/1956
        Length 5 months 13 days
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       13.4%            March 1972            DJI rallied 5% after testing point of breakout.
                                                                                                    la/ma     ann-roc  P-I     ch    AdjP-I    IP21   V-I    Opct    
                                       Breakout's Key Values:  3/1/1972    1.022    .433     58    8    125    .065     0   .189
                                       V-Bottom: 9/6/1972 -> 11/23/72 ->3/1/1972
         Length 5 months and 26 days.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

         The sense I get looking at all these cases is that without a Peerless Sell signal, it is usually
         best to assume that there will be still higher prices.  I reach the same conclusion seeing
         how well all many our Bullish MAXCP stocks are doing.  Professionals remain bullish. 

         1/18/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13650 +54   la/ma=1.023   21droc =   .267  P=  +403      Pch= -26
                                            IP21 =
+.202  V = -12 Opct = +.0542

                                        Peerless Automatic Buys and Sells on DJI
                                           P-I, A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index

                                           Buy B14 is Operative Peerless Signal.
                                                           S= Sell  B = Buy
                                         Note the two V-Formations in the last year.
                                        
DATA.BMP (976854 bytes)       
                                                SPY's Closing Power Is Still Rising

wpe15.jpg (96641 bytes)

             1/18/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 443 +57   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/18/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  26     MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/182013)

           ---> 96(-8) New Highs on NASDAQ   1   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 252  (+22) New Highs on NYSE     1  new lows. BULLish plurality  


===================================================================================
                                                          OLDER HOTLINES
===================================================================================
       1/17/2013     Peerless remains on a Buy B14.  I would think the markets will rise more.
       The number of MINCP stocks is very small (26) and the number of MAXCP stocks (394)
       is much, much  higher.  Clearly Professionals are still pushing their (and our) favorites higher. 
       With Bernanke declaring that there will be no rise in interest rates until the official Unemployment level
       reaches 6.5%, traders feel the risks of bearish surprises are limited and they are encouraged
       to speculate in smaller stocks.  This could become the year of the "cats and dogs", where
       low-priced stocks do very well.  (Actually, most of the biggest percentage gainers last year
       were low-priced stocks, too.)

      Powered by a NYSE A/D Line which has led the advance, rising Closing Powers which
      shows us that Professionals are bullish and mnay high Accumulation breakouts and
      tax-loss-ended turnarounds, the markets are back to their recovery highs.  In fact,
      the SP-500 has broken out above 1480 with a current Accumulation Index (IP21)
      of better than +.25.  This reading can be taken as a confirmation of its new high.  So
      has the NYSE made a new 12-month high with confirming Accumulation along with
      the broad-based Value Line.   Smaller caps tend to do well at the beginning of the new
      year.
     

      The DJI is only now challenging its set of closing 12-month highs at 1360013610.  Typically it
      makes a nominal closing high, at the very least, on a run like this following a 7.5% to 13.5%
      decline.    The NASDAQ is still 50 points below its September highs.  The QQQ is 4.5%
      below its highs.  Should we worry?  It is probably rare for all markets to be rising perfectly
      in synch.  So, I'm not concerned so much about AAPL, should it fail to rally,
      because there are many years in the past when AAPL lagged in a bull market, as I feel  
      compelled now to study past situations early in the year when the DJI closed 2% over
      the 21-day ma and showed a V-I reading of only 1 and an OPct of  just +.042, as now.

                                     Is Lagging Volume Much of A Problem?

     Volume has been lower than bulls might wish for.  And weighted down by AAPL which has
     been underperforming the DJI by 25% over the last 50 days, the NASDAQ and QQQ
     are now lagging.  Because Barrons only started reporting NYSE Up and Down volume
     in mid 1965, I have to start with 1966.  Below are the cases where
                                            
                                                        la/ma > 1.096 and
                                                        VI < 2.0 and
                                                        OPct   < .05 and
                                                        IP21> .15      
                                                       
Bull Mkt  6/4/1986          1.027   .457   4   -48   .152    1  .013  DJI advanced 2% over next month and then fell 8%
                                                               low
Bear Mkt rally 10/16/02  1.051 .619   83  139   .169 -62 .004  DJI fell back to 2% lower band,
Bull Mkt  7/27/2013         1.023 .418   266   14   .266 -40 -.138 DJI rose 4% and then fell 8%.
                                                        
     This is not enough cases to reach much of a conclusion from, except that it would seem that a lack
     of volume probably will act to limit the DJI advance in terms of additional percentage gains
     and how long we can go without a decline.  So, we will have to watch for new Peerless signals
     and Closing Power trend-breaks.                                             

      1/17/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13596 +85   la/ma=1.02   21droc =   .322  P=  +429      Pch= +24
                                            IP21 =
+.191  V = +1 Opct = +.042

                                        Peerless Automatic Buys and Sells on DJI
                                           P-I, A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index

                                           Buy B14 is Operative Peerless Signal.
                                                           S= Sell  B = Buy

wpe446A.jpg (65529 bytes)


                        1/17/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 394 +40   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/17/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  26 -6   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/17/2013)

           ---> 104 (+48) New Highs on NASDAQ   2   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 230  New Highs on NYSE     1  new lows. BULLish plurality  


====================================================================================
                                                                OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================
             1/16/2013     Peerless remains on a Buy. 

              Certainly, volume could be higher.  The OPct for te DJI stands only at .042 and
              the V-Indicator is only +9.  But even negative numbers here would not themselves
              bring a Peerless sell until April.  Such is the pattern of market advances if they can
              get past the reversal-prone first 14 days of January.  Seasonally, the 5 trading days
              following January 16th are up bring a DJI advance only 39.1% of the time since
              1965.   The DJI does average a 0.4% decline over the next week and a day.  But pullbacks
              are necessary to make breakouts more powerful.  So, I'd stay optiministic.  The
              five trading days after January 25th are up 69.6% of the time and average a
              DJI gain of 0.8%.

             The uptrends of the major market ETFs are  all still rising: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM
             The key NYSE ADLine is very strong.  Professionals are buying many more stocks
             aggressively than they are shorting: MAXCP stocks outnumber MINCP stocks by
              roughly 10:1.  Bank stocks like BAC, JPM and GS made new highs.

             There are numerous Bullish MAXCP stocks showing very high levels of Accumulation.
             The SP-500 is being drawn to its flat topped resistance to attempt a breakout.   The
             Closing Powers for SPY and DIA are rising while their Opening Power is in a minor down-
             trend.  A weak opening does not prevent an up-day.  This is bullish.  AAPL got back
             above its one-day broken easily spotted support-line at 500.  And the DJI's IP21
             stands at a healthy +.209  Since 1950, there have been only three tops with higher IP21s
             as they ran upwards with the start of the new year.  Each of the subsequent declines
             only fell between 2.5% and 3.% below the lower band and then  rebounded strongly.
             If there is a decline from here, it should be brief and not overly deep.

               1/16/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13511 -24   la/ma=1.015   21droc =   .337  P=  +404      Pch= -4
                                            IP21 =
+.209  V = +9 Opct = +.035

                                        Peerless Automatic Buys and Sells on DJI
                                           P-I, A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index

                                           Buy B14 is Operative Peerless Signal.
                                                           S= Sell  B = Buy

              Technical note:      
              There are many DJI declines of 8% to 13.5% in a bull market.  We would cover
              short sales on the general market in many of these cases when the downtrendlines
              are broken in the A/D line and CLosing Power even without a Peerless Buy.  This
              is particularly true when there has been no new Sell other than a head/shoulders'
              neckline break, a judged Sell S10.  See this below in June and November 2012.
             
wpe11.jpg (72866 bytes)
            

                              1/16/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 354    MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/16/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  32 +9   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/16/2013)

           ---> 54 (-15) New Highs on NASDAQ   3   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 89 (-33)  New Highs on NYSE     4  new lows. BULLish plurality  

               Revolutionary Biotech: SGMO: Turning Genes off and on to Stop AIDs.    

               Sangamo Bioscience (SGMO)   http://www.sangamo.com  
64 employees
               "Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the
               research, development, and commercialization of zinc finger DNA-binding proteins (ZFPs)
               for gene regulation and gene modification in the United States. Its ZFPs could be
               engineered to make ZFP transcription factors (ZFP TFs) proteins that could be used to turn
               genes on or off; and ZFP nucleases (ZFNs) proteins, which could be used to modify DNA
               sequences in various ways."   Can genes be turned on and off in cells?
              
BBC News - 'Brake gene' turned off in pancreatic cancer  Apr 30, 2012

              In 1950, SGMO was 50.  Bullishly, it is getting some sponsorship now.                

              Fidelity Select Biotech fund already has 1.1 million shares. Watch Yahoo to see if it
              is increasing its position.   There is no sign of insider buying on Yahoo, but Tiger's
              charts show otherwise.  We take insider-informed buying to be occurring in a rising
              stock when its Accumulation Index (IP21) rises above +.375.  This buying is
              circled in the chart below.

SGMO.BMP (1087254 bytes)

         



           

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Older Hotlines
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------      
          1/15/2013     DJI Is Being Drawn to Test 13700 Resistance.  Stay Mostly Long
          until Peerless Gives A Sell, or at least until Closing Power uptrends for DIA and SPY
          are violated.  AAPL's breakdown will worry tech stock holders and may hold back QQQ.
          For the DIA, SPY and IWM, a pattern of weak openings with firmer closes has set up. 
          Such Professional buying and Public Selling is usually bullish. 

              1/15/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM    and     F

                ---> 347 +144   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/15/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  23 -13   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/15/2013)

           ---> 69 (-8) New Highs on NASDAQ   8   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 122 (-6)  New Highs on NYSE     3  new lows. BULLish plurality  

                                        Peerless Automatic Buys and Sells on DJI
                                           P-I, A/D Line and Tiger Accum. Index

                                           Buy B14 is Operative Peerless Signal.
                                                           S= Sell  B = Buy

         1/15/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13535 +28   la/ma=1.018   21droc =   .326  P=  +407      Pch= +79
                                            IP21 =
+.181  V = +11 Opct = +.035

wpe15.jpg (67802 bytes)

                               DIA, One-Year Optimized Red Signals (much less important),
                                     Blue Closing Power and Accumulation Index.

       Warning:   Red signals shown below are based on best trading system for last year only.
   Stochastic Buys fail when key support fails.  Stochastic Sells fail when key resistance is overcome.
   The Blue CLosing Power is still rising, showing Professionals are net buyers.   When that
   uptrend is broken, look for a decline back to the support of the rising red 21-dma.

wpe11.jpg (83422 bytes)

         
         Peerless Remains on A  Buy B14

         Without a new Peerless automatic Sell signal or a head/shoulders top,  the odds are
         strongly against a decline to the lower 3.5% band.  Tonight's new study shows that
         DJI declines where there are first no automatic Peerless Sell signals most often stop at the lower
         2% band and do not get to the lower 3.5% band.  Since 1929, there were 7 such DJI tops, 
         all in February and March, which dropped the DJI only to the 2.5 lower band,  In 3 cases,
         the lower 3.5% band was reached.  In the two other cases where the DJI fell below the lower band
         and there was no Peerless Sell, there was first a head/shoulders pattern: 1931 and 1947.  The
         study tonight is of the first DJI peaks of the new year, when they occurred, what the key values were,
         what was the Peerless signal and what was the outcome.

                               First DJI Peaks after Janaury 14th since 1929
                               Where There Was
No Automatic Peerless Sell

       Date            la/ma  annroc     P-I   P-ch  IP21  V-I  Opct    Peerless    Outcome
       ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        2/24/1931   1.103  1.762       107  -6   .100    349    .466  No Sell. Head/Shoulders and Extreme S7. Below LB. 
        2/10/1947   1.034  .416          84   11   .244     41   .257  No Sell. Head/Shoulders  DJI fell below LB.
        2/5/1951    1.036   .693         82   -3  .198      47     258  No Sell. DJI fell to lower band.   
        2/18/1963  1.012    .287       52     -3   .149      -61   .448  No Sell.   Decline to lower 2% band.
        2/8/1967    1.019    .661     219    16   .114     19    .377 No Sell.  Decline to lower 2% band.
         3/17/1975  1.047  .948      149        8  .156        1    .364 No Sell  Decline to lower 2% band 
          2/13/1985   1.019   .629    317        18    .086      19 -.147   No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          2/7/1989      1.031   .807   181         41  .156      30     .156  No Sell.  Decline to lower band.  
          3/6/1991      1.029   .831   263       -42 .102      31    .101   No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          3/3/1992      1.009   .244     17         16  .408      -7   -.033 No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          2/5/1993      1.044   .627    233        15  .115      20     .425  No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
           2/18/2011  1.023   .56     456           8   .238        36   .490   No Sell. Decline to lower band. 

          The study below shows many interesting things.  First, I wanted to see see how often
          there were DJI tops that bring a decline to the lower 3.5% band or lower from January 15th
          to January 31st.
  In all the past 65 years, there were only 7 cases of DJI tops over the
          next two weeks: 1952, 1959, 1966, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1994  and 2010.  Of interest,
          none of these years were the year after a Presidential Election.  And by comparison, there
          were 29 instances when such a top occurred between Janaury 2nd and January 14th.  A top
          was 4x more likely to occur in the first two weeks of the new year than the second two weeks.
          This suggests that the market may have more upside surprises for the Debt Ceiling bears
          and those that consider Apple a barometer for other stocks.

           Significant trading declines (because they brought a DJI decline to the lower 2% band) occurred as
           follows:
                                                                          Number of
                                                                      Significant Tops
                         ----------------------------------------------------------
                         First 2 weeks of January                  29
                         Second 2 weeks of January               7
                                                                                   ----
                                                                                   36

                         First 2 weeks of February                14
                         Second 2 weeks of Frbruary              5
                                                                                  ----
                                                                                   19

                         First 2 weeks of March                      8   
                         Second 2 weeks of March                  5
                                                                                    ---
                                                                                   13

                          April                                                   5
                          May                                                   4
                          June or later                                      4

               A second question I wanted to answer was what how often did the DJI drop from
           a second-half-January peak to the lower 3.5% band without a warning.  The answer is
           only once, 1952, but in this case a clear-cut head/shoulders pattern acted as warning.

                   1952  Head/Shoulders. DJI fell to lower band.
                   1959  
No Sell. Head/Shoulders. Decline only to lower 2% band.
                   1966  
S12.               DJI fell below lower band.  
                   1974  
Earlier S12.  DJI fell below lower band.
                   1979   
S12.            Decline to lower band. 
                   1982  
S12,           DJI fell below lower band.
                    1994
    S4..            DJI fell below lower band.
                    2010    Early S9.   DJI fell below lower band

             A third question for the next two weeks that I can now answer is how bad will
             a decline be if we do get a Peerless Sell or a head/shoulder pattern.  The data
             show 5 instances of a DJI drop below the lower 3.5% band.  So, if a decline
             does develop it is more likely to bring a bigger decline than to just the 3.5% band.
            
             A fourth notion here is what is the highest level of each key indicator in a past peak.
             We might infer from this that the next peak cannot occur with higher readings.
             At least. with key value levels above these levels,  would make a top seem unlikely. 
             I think we have to leave out the pre-1945 cases.

             There is a lot more here to mine.  "More later", as they say...

                           La/Ma (How far up from the 21-day ma, the close is, i.e. upper band)
                                                                    1.059
                           Annroc (Annualized rate of change of21-dma) ...
                                                                    1.466
                           PI (21-day ma of NYSE advances - declines)
                                                                    456
                           PI change from previous day.
                                                                     67
                           IP21 (Accumulation Index current value)
                                                                     .408
                           VI (since 1966 when data first reported.)
                                                                     53

                                 January-February-March Tops: 1929-2012

            Date        la/ma  annroc    P-I    P-ch  IP21  V-I  Opct   Peerless     Outcome
       --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          2/1/1929   1.043    .545      -20     6  -.002  -408 .296   Sell S9/S12  DJI fell to lower band
           2/5/1930  1.065   1.198       90    12  .112    168    .462  Prematurer S9/S12. New S4. Decline to lower 2% band.
          2/24/1931 1.103  1.762       107  -6   .100    349    .466  No Sell. Head/Shoulders and Extreme S7. Below LB.
          2/15/1932 1.046  -.484     -66     -18 -.096 -224  -.214  Sell S12. DJI fell below lower band.
          1/10/1933 1.068   .851          4     15    .016 -41   .117   Sell S12. DJI fell below lower band.
          2/5/1934   1.059   1.547      233   32   -.01    680  .31 2  Sell S4.  DJI fell below lower band.
          1/7/1935  1.038    .292         10    -7    -.05  -49  .125   Sell S12   Decline to lower 2% band.
          4/6/1936  1.034    .236      -37     -1   -.152 -249 .074   Premature S1/S8. Concurrent S15.  DJI fell below LB..
          3/5/1937  1.028    .373      -15     5    .037  -231 .092   Premature S15. Concurrent S15.   DJI fell below LB.
         
1/11/1938  1.069 1.103        31   37   .038   -65  .181   Sell S9/S12. DJI fell below lower band 
          1/4/1939     1.028  .578        29    37    .082    45  .359   No Sell. DJI fell below lower band  
          1/3/1940     1.026  .505        68    17    .072    54  .222   No Sell. DJI fell to lower band
         
1/10/1941  1.020   .20          45   11    -.068     7  .481    Sell S12. DJI fell below lower band   
         
1/5/1942     1.035 -.27         -48    6     .022 -236 -.153   Sell S9. DJI fell below lower band   
          1943           No peaks and declines to Lower Band during first 6 months of year.
          1944           No peaks and declines to Lower Band during first 6 months of year.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           3/6/1945   1.022   .581       144   2    .261    186  .525  No Sell/ H/S Top. DJI fell to lower band
           2/1/1946   1.028   .865       157  27   .260    235  . .382  Sell S4. Premature S9. Concurrent S8.   Below LB.
                                                                                                 Head/Shoulders
         2/10/1947   1.034  .416          84   11   .244     41   .257  No Sell. Head/Shoulders  DJI fell below LB.
         1/2/1948      1.01    .013        -33   12   .051   -101 .239  No Sell. Head/Shoulders   DJI fell below LB.
          1/7/1949    1.024   .370         33   38 -.004   -51   .213  Sell S12. DJI fell below lower band 
          6/12/1950  1.027  .52            33   -3  .176     -50    .444  Premature S9, Concurrent S5.
                                                                                                   DJI fell below lower band
          2/5/1951    1.036   .693         82   -3  .198      47     258  No Sell. DJI fell to lower band.
       >1/22/1952  1.021  .349          74   10  .087     19     .371 S1.   Head/Shoulders. DJI fell to lower band.
          1/5/1953  1.024  .453          67   21  .188   -9     .399  .Sell S8.  Head/Shoulders. DJI fell below lower band 
          1954           No peaks and declines to Lower Band during first 6 months of year.
          3/3/1955    1.017   .249       105     3     0       74    .153  No Sell
                                                                                              Quick 1-wk decline to lower band and recovery.
         1/3/1956     1.002 .108          -7  -12 -.139  -165   .079  No Sell. Head/Shoulders.  DJI fell to lower band.
         1/4/1957     1.014 .640        -38    0   .049   -62   .289 Earlier S12. Head/Shoulders.  DJI fell to lower band
          1/7/1958    1.027 -.049        -3   15 -.051  -192   .054 Earlier S12. Decline to lower 2% band.
        >1/21/1959  1.019  .515        112    9    .133    122   .442  No Sell. Head/Shoulders. Decline to lower 2% band.
          1/5/1960    1.018 -.049         -3  15 -.051  -192   .054 S12/S15. Head/Shoulders  DJI fell below LB.
          5/19/1961  1.026    .376        66     9 .033    -43   .027  No Sell/ H/S Top. Decline to lower 2% band. 
          3/15/1962  1.014    .154        -6   -3  .033    227 -.029 S10 H/S Top.  DJI fell below lower band 
          2/18/1963  1.012    .287       52     -3   .149      -61   .448  No Sell.   Decline to lower 2% band.
          5/6/1964    1.008    .078     -47   12 -.055  -582    .116  No Sell/ H/S Top. Decline to lower 2% band.
          5/13/1965  1.018    .399       24      3   .110 -262   -254   S8.   DJI fell below lower band.
        >1/18/1966   1.020   .445      49     -2  -.028       5     .479  S12. DJI fell below lower band.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          2/8/1967    1.019    .661     219    16   .114     19    .377 No Sell.  Decline to lower 2% band.
          1/8/1968    1.020    .222      68     21   -.019      6    .163  S12. DJI fell below lower band.   
          2/13/1969   1.012   .309      60  -22   .141       0     .27 On earler S1. Decline to lower band. 
          1/5/1970    1.027    .241     72     -31  -.034     -1    .058   S12. DJI fell below lower band
          4/28/1971  1.024    .608      82       2    .095       1   .412  S9 a week later. Head/Shoulders.   DJI fell below lower band
          4/18/1972  1.019    .327    -20       4   .054      -1   .151  S15.  Decline to lower 2% band.
          1/11/1973  1.024    .215    -96        9   .002      -2   .057 S15/S12 . DJI fell below lower band.
        >1/17/1974  1.033  .799      182      18  .043        0   -.01   Earlier S12.  DJI fell below lower band.
          3/17/1975  1.047  .948      149        8  .156        1    .364 No Sell  Decline to lower 2% band.
          3/24/1976  1/024  .192      -64       10 -.033       -1    .251 S15.  Decline to lower 2% band.
          12/31/1976 1.027  .674      289       17  .11          3     .462 S4/S8.    DJI fell below lower band
          12/30/1978 1.015  .021    -18          4  -.015      -1  -.029  No Sell Head/Shoulders DJI fell below lower band.
       >1/26/1979    1.033 .734    234        50   .087        4    .268  S12. Decline to lower band. 
          2/13/1980   1.028   .478    -26         1 -.01          -1   .205  S15. Head/Shoulders   DJI fell below lower band.
          1/6/1981      1.059  .381      61        43   .031       -1  .113  S12 Head/Shoulders. Decline to lower band. 
        >1/29/1982    1.02  -.028    -87        26  .005        -5   .048  S12,   DJI fell below lower band.
          1/10/1983   1.052   .741   105         56  .002         4   .118   S12 on 1/6/83     Decline to lower band. 
          1/6/1984       1.022  .152     34          28  -.035      -1  -.154 S12,   DJI fell below lower band.
          2/13/1985   1.019   .629    317        18    .086      19 -.147   No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          1/7/1986      1.022  .645    164         43   .095       13   .105 No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          4/7/1987      1.019  .529      -5         -3   .15           6   .267  S9 Decline to lower band. 
          1/7/1988      1.048 1.466   280          5   .22         25    .417 No Sell.  Decline to lower band. 
          2/7/1989      1.031   .807   181         41  .156      30     .156  No Sell.  Decline to lower band. 
          1/3/1990      1.027   .270    36        -15  .08        -4  -.093 S4/S15.  DJI fell below lower band.
          3/6/1991      1.029   .831   263       -42 .102      31    .101   No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          3/3/1992      1.009   .244     17         16  .408      -7   -.033 No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
          2/5/1993      1.044   .627    233        15  .115      20     .425  No Sell Decline to lower 2% band.
       >1/31/1994    1.028   .692   150         17  .195      11     .450  S4..  DJI fell below lower band.
          1995  No peaks and declines to Lower Band during first 6 months of year.
          3/18/1996   1.021   .283     -25        52 .139      -19    .048  S1 Decline to lower band. 
          3/10/1997   1.018   .526    173        36 .127        17   .133   S9.  DJI fell below lower band.
          4/21/1998   1.024   .37        13       -11 .045      -7    .056  S15  Decline to lower band. 
          1/8/1999      1.058  .806      48         25 .090       10    .231  No SellDecline to lower 2% band.
          1/14/2000   1.03     .522      90         27 -.058      -28   .433  S4/S12/S15 DJI fell below lower band.

         (1/3/2001    1.025   .639     335       28  .022      -19   .215   S12.    Decline to lower 2% band)
           2/2/2001     1.016 -.091     290    -88 .041     -15   -.076  S9.   DJI fell below lower band.

          (1/4/2002   1.024   .435     269       -20 .040         0    .291  No Sell. Decline to lower band. 
           3/13/2002 1.044  1.042    375       -53 .117        53   .236  Premature S9. DJI fell below lower band.

           1/14/2003 1.033  .424      217         21 .098      -12  .039   S12. DJI fell below lower band.
           2/11/2004 1.017  .285      246         22 .093        -6   .134    S9/S15.  DJI fell below lower band.
          3/4/2005   1.017    .381    251         40 .093      -15  .14      S15.  DJI fell below lower band.  
           5/10/2006 1.025    .527    117           6  .091      -10  .334   S9.   DJI fell below lower band.
           2/20/2007  1.013   .208    385        -26 .063       44  .309   Premature S9.  Decline to lower band. 
           2008  No rallies to upper band until May 2008.
           1/2/2009     1.045  .850   495           18 .058        61  -.004    S12. DJI fell below lower band.
         >1/19/2010   1.017  .321   429           37 .078        16   .357   Early S9.  DJI fell below lower band.
           2/18/2011  1.023   .56     456           8   .238        36   .490   No Sell. Decline to lower band. 
           3/15/2012  1.022   .344  196          67  .071         5    .236  S1/S15.   Decline to lower band. 


====================================================================================
                                                                OLDER HOTLINES
====================================================================================

        1/14/2013   Peerless Remains on A  Buy B14

             Peerless remains on a Buy.  Without a Peerless Sell signal or a head/shoulders top,
             the odds are against a decline to the lower band.  Given AAPL's huge capitalization,
             I would expect a re-test of the DJI's 21-day ma about 2% lower if AAPL closes below
             its 500 support, which seems likely tomorrow.  (Its Closing Power is still falling).    
             It may be a surprise but,  historically, sizeable AAPL weakness relative to the DJI
             has not been bearish for the general market.  There were many times in the past 
             when AAPL fell 33% or more in a general market that continued to rise:
             1983, 1985, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997.

            1/14/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13507 +19   la/ma=1.017   21droc =   .235  P=  +328      Pch= +328
                                                     IP21 =
+.135  V = --10 Opct = -.048

wpe11.jpg (65087 bytes)

                          DIA is being drawn back to its 136-136.5 old highs' resistance.
                     Its Closign Power is rising and its IP21 is quite respectably positive.
                     It typically is the strongest index at the end of a run.  It is the "last
                     man standing", if you will.  Today it rose despite the NASDAQ's weakness,
                     owing to AAPL's 3% decline.

DIA.BMP (1082454 bytes)

                      

                          1/14/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
                       
         
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
        
DJIA-Peerless      GLD    SLV      Crude Oil      Foods     EURO      Dollar    10-Year Rates   
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY  
Biotechs:
AMGN   ALXN   CELG   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM and F

                ---> 203 -14   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/14/2013) BULLish plurality  
           --->  36 +4   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/14/2013)

           ---> 76 (+12) New Highs on NASDAQ   5   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 128 (-8)  New Highs on NYSE     1  new lows. BULLish plurality  




====================================================================================
                                                          OLD HOTLINES
====================================================================================
                         1/11/2013   Peerless Remains on A  Buy B14

         There are many high Accumulation breakouts.  Transports, Autos, biotechs, housing-related stocks
         and food commodity users are advancing as Sugar and other commodities slip downward
         and the Chinese, Europeon and Developing Countries' economies improve.

         The stock market doubts that the House Republicans will succeed in forcing a debt
         reduction- government stoppage next month.   If a true crisis of "financial confidence"
         was about to occur because the national debts were reaching a dangerous threshold,
         one might expect the Dollar to be in a dive and Gold to be rising powerfully.   They are
         clearly not.  The Dollar is not the Argentine Peso or Weimar Germany's D-Mark.  This
         will not prevent FOX and CNN from trying to scare investors.  It will leave stocks in
         strong hands.  And that is bullish.          

         As  long as the Closing Powers for SPY and QQQ are rising, as long as the NYSE A/D Line
         is rising and as long as AAPL does not break its 500 support, I believe the DJI and
         general market  will move higher.   "Sneaky" bear markets are very few.  First, there must
         either  some pronounced internal weakness or, at least, a head/shoulders pattern showing
         that something unexpectedly bearish is about to happen.

         AAPL's troubles?  Right now, money coming out of AAPL is probably being reinvested in
         lots of much smaller companies.  The broad-based Value Line and NYSE are making
         new 12 month highs.

wpe1D.jpg (86675 bytes)

         Of more concern is the speed with which the Japanese Yen is falling.  Japanese
         imports may become very cheap in the near futures.  If you are a car-buyer that
         could help.  Ford, meantime, is bursting out to new highs.  The fall-out from the
         falling Yen will have to be watched.

FXY.BMP (1087254 bytes)

wpe1E.jpg (86580 bytes)

                1/11/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13488 +17   la/ma=1.017   21droc =   .216  P=  +324      Pch= -46
                                                 IP21 =
+.109  V = --4 Opct = -.129

wpe15.jpg (66619 bytes)

                                      SPY - Blue Closing Power Is Rising.

wpe16.jpg (94845 bytes)

        

                    1/11/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
                       
        
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
       
DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI   TigerSPY Tiger-QQQ   GLD    SLV   Crude Oil   Foods
            Dollar
  10-Year Rates     
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY   Biotechs: AMGN   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM

                ---> 217 -25   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/11/2013) BULLish plurality  
         --->  32 +5   MINCP stocks  Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/11/2013)

           ---> 64 (-31) New Highs on NASDAQ   6   new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 136 (-49)  New Highs on NYSE     2  new lows. BULLish plurality  

        

 



===================================================================================
                                                         EARLIER HOTLINES
===================================================================================
     1/10/2013   Peerless Remains on A  Buy B14

        1/10/2013   
Key Values:  DJI  13471 +81  la/ma=1.016   21droc =  .271  P=  +369     Pch= +20
                                                 IP21 =
+.095  V = -+12 Opct = -.129

wpe18.jpg (63701 bytes)

     

 

        The SPY and DIA Closing Powers, NYSE A/D Line, DJI-AI and DJI-PI are all in rising trends.    
        It looks like the DJI wants to rally and test the resistance at 13600.   AAPL is still weak, but
        the big biotechs rallied convincingly again today.   The broad based Value Line made a new
        high today as did the NYSE.  The SP-500 has made a 12-month closing high.  It still
        must get past 1275 is surpass its highest intra-day trading for the last year.

        At this point, I see no reason why the market cannot continue to advance.  The prevailing
        tendency is for a post Presidential Election year rally to move higher when a Democrat
        is in the White House in office since 1936 AND Peerless is on a Buy in January. 

        We should expect to see a Peerless Sell signal at the next top and one or more significant
        non-confirmations (NCs) at this top, including an A/D Line NC.

        In all 6 cases when a Democrat was in the White House, the market rallied at least
        until March 9th.  In 4 of the 6 cases, the first "top" was in May. 
See Table 1:

        The study I started a few nights ago about about the length of bull market cycle's  is finished.
        I show it below in
Table 2:.  The main conclusion is that the typical bull market lasts 53 months from
        the bottom of a major DJI decline before peaking and then starting another major (+20% decline).
       
As the DJI bottomed in March 2009, we might normally expect the bull market to continue
        until peaking in August 2013.  But be careful
.  While 53 months is the average length
        of a bull market, there are big variations.    Only 6 of the 16 cycles show bull market
        rallies that actually last between 48 and 63 months.  6 last less than 38 months. 4 last
        more than 76 months.

                          How Will We Spot The Next Major Peak?
             1929, 1973, 2000 and 2007 Are The Ideal Types of A Perfect Top

        While there are a few cases (December 1969 or August 1987) of very big bear markets
        starting from what might seem like more independent and isolated non-confirmations
        and single Peerless Sell signals, more of the extreme declines start from peaks showing
        multiple Negative Non-Confirmations by the P-I, IP21 and V-I.  They also show an
        A/D Line that has fallen far behind the false final advance of the DJI.  They display
        multiple Peerless Sells at the final top and multiple sets of Sells in the previous 6-8
        months.  And they show either a price break-down below well-tested support about 10% below the 
        recent peaks (examples: 1973, 1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008) OR they easy-to-spot
        Head/Shoulders patterns (examples: 1946, 1961-1962 and 1990).   

         What helped me most, as I began the research on Peerless in 1981 was looking at the
        January 1973 top.  It showed multiple negative non-confirmations at the peak.
        The DJI and the "nifty-fifty" insututional favorites had run up the market superficially.
        But most stocks were declining.  The NYSE A/D Line had been downtrending since
        mid 1972.  Below is the Peerless chart for the January top of 1972.  Interestingly,
        Barrons' cover  headlined for all the world to see that the DJI was headed for 1200
        with Richard Nixon re-elected and business safe again from Democrat regulations
        and increased corporation taxes.  Years later, I saw how similar the top in 1929
        was to the top in early 1973 technically and how its prospects were portrayed by
        the pundits of the time. 

        The internals of the market are clearly much stronger now than at those tops shown
        below.  Eventually, I would expect the key Peerless internals to deteriorate and look similar
        to those shown in the charts below.  That will probably set the stage for another 25%+ declline,
        at least.

                          1929 Major Top before Severe Market Decline

wpe19.jpg (63872 bytes)

                         1973 Major Top before Severe Market Decline

wpe1A.jpg (66543 bytes)

                         2000 Major Top before Severe Market Decline

wpe1B.jpg (79925 bytes)

                                 2007 Major Top before Severe Market Decline

wpe1C.jpg (73499 bytes)

 

2007 Major Top before Severe Market Decline
DATA07.BMP (1017654 bytes)


       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             

               Table 1:
               Peaks in the Year after the Presidential Election When A Democrat Is in The White House

               Year                Peak               Signs of A Top              Outcome
               --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               1937               March 9          Multiple Sells                  DJI fell from 193.30 to 167.40 on 6/15/37,  Buy B8
                                                          S9, S12, S15
                                                          P-I
NNC
                                                         
A/D Line NC
                                                          A/D Line MA falling
                                                          IP21 = .026  NC
                                                          V-I = -296
NNC
                                                          OPct = .073

                1945                May 15         S9           
                        DJI rallied 3% more and then fell back to LB
                                                          This is based on P-I
                                                          finally turning negative

                1961                 May 19      No Sell                           
DJI pulled back to LB and then rallied more.
                                                           PI= 18, NC
                                                     
     A/D Line NC 

                1965                 May 14       S8                                  
DJI fell from 939.60 to 851.40 and then rallied more.
                                                           PI= 18, NC
                                                         
A/D Line NC

                1993                 May 27      No Sells                            DJI rose until August 25. 
fell 3% and rallied higher.
                                                         
A/D Line NC

                 1997                 March 11  No Sell                           
DJI fell from 7085.16 to 6391.69 and rallied higher.
                                                           No Negative NNCs
      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        1/10/2013   Key Values:  DJI  13471 +81  la/ma=1.016     21droc =  .271  P=  +369       Pch= +20
                                                 IP21 =
+.095  V = -+12 Opct = -.129

               1/10/2013     To Key Index and Stock Charts
                       
        
DIA   SPY    QQQ   IWM     S&P   OEX   NYSE   Value Line
       
DJIA-Peerless     TigerDJI   TigerSPY Tiger-QQQ   GLD    SLV   Crude Oil   Foods
            Dollar
  10-Year Rates     
            
Tiger -Bonds     Big Banks    IBB-BioTechs      Military    Home-Building Stocks            

Key Stocks   AAPL   ADBE  GOOG   AMZN    EBAY   Biotechs: AMGN   GILD    REGN
and
6  highest priced DJI stocks: IBM   CAT   CVX    MCD    MMM  and XOM  
                                                plus   JPM  GS  NEM

                ---> 243 -31   MAXCP stocks Bullish MAXCP Stocks (1/10/2013) BULLish plurality  
         --->  27  -2   MINCP stocks Bearish MINCP Stocks  (1/10/2013)

           ---> 95 (+8) New Highs on NASDAQ   5     new lows. BULLish plurality  
              ---> 185 (-1)  New Highs on NYSE     1  new lows. BULLish plurality  

         ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Table 2:       Lengths of Major Bull Markets: 1915-2013       

                            Here we study the
Major Cycles' Length from a Major Low after
                            a Bear Market to the Peak before another Big Decline.  

                           Here I consider the serious bear markets of more than 20% to mark
                           the end of each cycle.

                          There are 16 cycles since the December 1914 low.  From the bottom
                          of these 20% plus major bear markets to the final bull market peak before
                          the next 20% decline,  53 months is the average span of time.  The
                          standard deviation is 27.7.   Considering the last major bear market's date
                          3/9/2009.     From this we might estimate that the DJI will finally peak
                          out in August 2013.  But the standard deviation is quite high and only 
                          6 of the 16 cycles showed a DJI bull market advance that lasted 53 months,
                          plus or minus 10 months.  So, such a date has limited certainty or confidence.


               DJI Peaks/
Bottoms since 1914.     It was closed the second half of the year
               because of WWI.  

               ------------------------------------------- Major Cycle 1  Trading Resumes---------------------------------------------------
               12/1914                   Bear Market Bottom
                11/21/1916              Bull Market Peak, DJI - 110.20,             24 months later                                          
                 12/20/1917            
Bear Narket Bottom, DJI = 6710               13 months later  
                11/3/1919                Bull Market Peak, DJI -119.60                  23 months later    
                 8/26/1921              
Bear Narket Bottom, DJI = 65.50              24 months later 
 
                                              
Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:   6 years 9 months
                                               Bottom to Cycle High length:   4 years  8 months

                ------------------------------------------- Major Cycle 2 Ending With Severe Bear Market---------------------------------------------------
                
8/26/1921             Bear Narket Bottom, DJI = 65.50            
                  3/19/1923               Bull Market Peak, DJI -115.40                19 months later
                
10/31/1923              Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 88.50            7   months later.   
                  2/11/1926               Bull Market Peak, DJI -162.30                28 months later
                 
3/30/1926               Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 135.20        1.5  months later.
                  9/3/1929                 Bull Market Peak, DJI = 381.20                 41 months later    
                 
7/7/1932                 Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 41.80           34     months later.

                                              Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  10 years 11 months
                                               Bottom to Cycle High length:   8 years 1 month


                  ------------------------------------------- Major Cycle 3 Ending With Severe Bear Market---------------------------------------------------
              
7/7/1932                  Bear Narket Bottom,  DJI = 41.80            Start of new cycle at bear mkt bottom.
               9/7/1932                   Bull Market Peak, DJI = 79.90                    2 months later         
              
2/27/1933                 Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 50.20           5.5 months later
               7/7/1933                   Bull Market Peak, DJI = 108.30                   2 months later
               10/19/1933                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 84.40         3.5 months later
                2/5/1934                   Bull Market Peak, DJI = 110.70                  4 months later
               
7/26/1934                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 85.50            5.5 months later
                3/18/1937               Bull Market Peak,   DJI = 194.40                  35 months later.  
               
3/31/1938                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 85.50            12 months later

                                              Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 5 years 8 months
                                               Bottom to Cycle High length:   4 years 8 months


               ------------------------------------------- Major Cycle 4 Ending With Severe Bear Market---------------------------------------
              
3/31/1938                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 85.50           
               11/9/1938                Bull Market Peak,     DJI = 158.10                10 months later.         
              
4/11/1939                Bear Market Bottom,    DJI = 123.80              5 months later
               9/13/1939               Bull Market Peak, DJI = 154.10                      5 months later
              
4/28/1942               Bear Market Bottom,   DJI = 92.90                 31 months later.    

                                           
  Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  4 years 1 months
                                              Bottom to Cycle High length:   1 year   5
months


              
   ------------------------------------------- Major Cycle 5 Ending With More Severe Bear Market---------------------------------------                    4/28/1942                Bear Market Bottom,   DJI = 92.90                
                5/29/1946                Bull Market Peak, DJI = 212.50                       49 months later.   
               
3/16/1948                Bear Market Bottom,   DJI = 165.40                 32 months later.   
                6/14/1948                Bull Market Peak, DJI = 192.90                       3 months later.  
               
6/13/1949                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 161.60                 12 months later.

                                             Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  7 years 1.5 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   5 years 1.5 months


                ---------------------------------- Major Cycle 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                6/13/1949                Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 161.60       
                9/13/1951                Bull Market Peak, DJI = 276.40                      27 months later.   
               
9/14/1954                 Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 255.50              24 months later.
                                             (Protracted shallow weakness)
                4/6/1956                    Bull Market Peak, DJI = 521.10                      27 months later.   
                2/12/1956                  Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 454.60              10 months later.
                                             (Protracted shallow weakness)
               7/12/1957                 Bull Market Peak,   DJI = 520.00                     46 months later.           
              
10/21/1957               Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 423.10                  3 months later.

                                          
  Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  8 years 4 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   8 years 1 month


               
---------------------------------- Major Cycle 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                10/21/1957            Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 423.10                 
                12/31/1959              Bull Market Peak,     DJI = 679.30                      26 months later.               
               
10/25/1960            Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 566.00                12 months later.
                11/4/1961                Bull Market Peak,   DJI = 732.60                       12 months later.  
              
  6/27/1962             Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 536.90                     7 months later.

                                           Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 4 years 8 months
                                            Bottom to Cycle High length:   4 years 1 month


                  ---------------------------------- Major Cycle 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  6/27/1962             Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 536.90     
                  1/18/1966                Bull Market Peak,  DJI =994.20                    37 months later.   
                  10/7/1966             Bear Market Bottom, DJI =744.32               9 months later.
                   9/26/1967              Bull Market Peak,    DJI = 937.18                   10.5 months later.   
                   3/21/1968            Bear Market Bottom, DJI =825.13              6 months later.
                  12/2/1968               Bull Market Peak,   DJI = 983.34                    8.5 months later.   
                   5/26/1970             Bear Market Bottom,  DJI =631.16                18 months later. 

                                           Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 7 years 11 months
                                            Bottom to Cycle High length:   6 years   5 month


               ---------------------------------- Major Cycle 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   5/26/1970           Bear Market Bottom,  DJI =631.16
                  
4/281971              Bull Market Peak,    DJI = 950.82                    11 months later. 
                   11/23/1971         Bear Market Bottom,  DJI =797.97                7     months later.       
                   1/11/73               Bull Market Peak, DJI = 1051.70                    14 months later.          
                  
12/6/1974           Bear Market Bottom, DJI =577.60                   23 months later.
 
                                           Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 4 years 6 months
                                            Bottom to Cycle High length:   2 years  6.5 months

                                          

              ---------------------------------- Major Cycle 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     12/6/1974           Bear Market Bottom, DJI =577.60                   23 months later.
                     9/21/1976            Bull Market Peak, DJI = 1014.79                 22 months later.   
                     2/28/1978          Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 742.12                 17 months later.

                                            Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 3 years 2 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   1 years  5 months


               ---------------------------------- Major Cycle 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                     2/28/1978          Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 742.12                 17 months later.
                     9/11/1978            Bull Market Peak, DJI = 907.74                       7 months later.   
                      11/14/1978       Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 785.26              2 months later.
                     10/5/1979            Bull Market Peak, DJI = 897.61                      11 months later.
                       11/7/1979       Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 785.26              1 month later.
                        2/13/1980      Bull Market Peak.  DJI = 903.84                     3 months later.      
                        3/27/1980     Bear Market Bottom,  DJI = 759.98               1.5 months later.
                        4/7/1981         Bull Market Peak, DJI = 1024.05                      12.5 months later.  
                        8/11/82         Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 777.21                   16 months later.

                                            Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 4 years  5 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   3 years 1 month


                ------------------------------------ Major Cycle 12 -----------------------------------------------------------------------   
                        8/11/1982       Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 777.21  
                       
1/6/1984           Bull Market Peak, DJI = 1286.64                 17 months later.        
                          7/24/1985      Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 1086.57             6.5 months later.
                         
8/25/1987       Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 2722.42                25 months later. 
                         12/4/1987       Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 1766.74             3.5 months later.

                                           
Bottom to Bottom Cycle length: 5 years  3 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   5 years


              
------------------------------------ Major Cycle 13 -----------------------------------------------------------------------   
                         12/4/1987      Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 1766.74   
             
            7/16/1990    Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 2999.75                  32 months later. 
                       
10/11/1990    Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 2365.10            4 months later.

                                            Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  2 years 10 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   2 years  7.5 months


               ------------------------------------ Major Cycle 14 -----------------------------------------------------------------------   
                         10/11/1990    Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 2365.10       
                
         2/1/1994       Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 3964.01           38.5  months later. 
                          3/31/1994     Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 3635.97        2 months later.      
                           7/30/1997     Bull Market Peak,     DJI = 8254.99             4  months later. 
                          10/27/1997   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 7165.15          3 months later.
                          
7/16/1998       Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 8328.19              8    months later. 
                          8/31/1998     Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 7539.07            1.5 months later.

                                            Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  7 years 10 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   7 years  9 months

                          
              ----------------------------------- Major Cycle 15 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                         8/31/1998     Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 7539.07
                        8/24/1999    Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 11283.20           12     months later. 
                        10/15/1999   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 10019.71
                        1/14/2000   Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 11722.90           3     months later. 
                        10/9/2002   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 7286.27     31 months later.

                                             Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  4 years 1.5 months
                                             Bottom to Cycle High length:   1 years 3.5 months


             ----------------------------------- Major Cycle 16 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
            
            10/9/2002      Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 7286.27
                          2/11/2004   Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 10737.70           14     months later. 
                          10/25/2004 Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 9749.99         8.5 months later..
                          3/4/2005    Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 10940.85           4.5     months later.
                           4/18/2005   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 10071.25       1.5 months later..
                            10/9/
2007    Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 14164.53           30  months later.
                          
3/9/2009   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 6547.05          18 months later.

                                          Bottom to Bottom Cycle length:  6 years .5 months
                                          Bottom to Cycle High length:   5 years 


             
----------------------------------- Major Cycle 17 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                            3/9/2009   Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 6547.05         
                           4/23/2010   Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 11204.28           13.5  months later. 
                           7/2/2010        Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 9696.48
      2.5 months later..
                          4/29/2011   Bull Market Peak,  DJI = 12810.54           9.5  months later. 
                           10/3/2011     Bear Market Bottom, DJI = 9696.48     5.5 months later.
                             ?         2013?                Bull Market Peak   ?