HL 1980-2016
Yearly TigerSoft charts by half year
www.tigersoft.com/TigerResearch/HL/INDEX.htm

Email william_schmidt@hotmail.com for quote
on similar studies.
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   When to sell after a big rally? 
   HL has had 8 since 1979.

    The conclusion I reach is
     Read up on Head/Shoulders patterns
     and watch for a big red down day of more than 5%.
     The red shows high volume. 

     Any new high that is not confirmed by Closing Power
     runs the risk of being decisively reversed.  But prices
     may still rise for a while longer.  Price Reversals after a
     CP must be considered significant.

     Because HL can turn down sharply after a big advance,
     too much is given up waiting for a 65-dma to be penetrated
     (which can be false) or for the 65-dma to turn down. 

     This approach would have worked well in 7 of the 8
     cases.  In the 8th case, selling when 65-dma turned
     would have worked out.

           Occurrences of Big Gains


     1) 1980    12-34  H/S top and 21-dma turns down.  Sell 28-30.
                      65-dma penetration meant selling at 26
                      Waiting for 65-dma to turn down gives up all the gain.
     2) 1981-1982  6-26
                      Waiting for 65-dma to turn down meant selling at 22  
     3) 1987   10-26  Big red vol down.
                     65-dma then turns down
                     then H/S
     4) 1993   7.5 to 15  65-dma turns down
                     May new high was not confirmed by Closing Power
                     Failed breakout also marked the top at 15.

     5) 2002   May 2002 new high was not confirmed by Closing Power  
                    1 to 5.5  Big red vol down.
                     H/S
                     21-dma turns down
     6) 2003   3 to 6.5  H/S
     7) 2009    Nov-Dec new highs were not confirmed by CP
                     1.5 to 7.5   H/S
                     then 21-dma turns down
     8) 2010    Dec new highs were not confirmed by CP
                    4.5 to 11 21-dma turns down
                     Big red vol down.
                     65-dma turns down

    ==========================
     9) 2016   1.5 to 6.5           

1979-1980
1980
1980-1981
1981
1981-1982
1982
1982-1983
1983
1983-1984
1984
1984-1985
1985
1985-1986
1986
1986-1987
1987
1987-1988
1988
1988-1989
1989
1989-1990
1990
1990-1991
1991
1991-1992
1992

1992-1993
1993  May new high was not confirmed by Closing Power           Failed breakout also marked this top at 15.
1993-1994
1994
1994-1995
1995
1995-1996
1996
1996-1997
1997
1997-1998
1998
1998-1999
1999
1999-2000
2000
2000-2001
2001
2001-2002    May new high was not confirmed by Closing Power                       Failed breakout also marked this top at 15.
2002    Final advance to 5.5 was not confirmed by Closing Power.
2002-2003
2003
2003-2004
2004
2004-2005
2005
2005-2006

2006
2006-2007
2007
2007-2008
2008
2008-2009
2009
2009-2010               Nov-Dec new highs were not confirmed by CP
2010
2010-2011                                  Dec new highs were not confirmed by CP
2011
2011-2012
2012
2012-2013
2013
2013-2014
2014
2014-2015
2015
2015-2016
2016