Corrections in DJI, 10%-14%, since 1945...
The faster the
decline, the more likely there will be more test:
Examples 1948 - 12 day decline, 2
more tests needed and then breakdown.
1955 - 12 day decline, no more test... IKE heart attack...
1978 - 11 day decline, 3 more tests needed and then full recovery
2018 - 9 day decline, 4 tests needed and then 70% recovery.
(Each test must
be five days apart.)
None of the declines shown below were as fast as the February 2020 case shown
immediately below.
But assuming the size of the
decline, 10%-14% is they key now to predicting what will happen
and the bottom has been made even though
there is no Peerless Buy, the odds of a 50%+ recovery are 13 of 15.
34% recover only is ... 1960, 1984,
50% recovery only is... 1948, 1956(2)
68% recover only is... 1971, 1978, 1994, 2015, 2018
a full recovery is... 1955, 1956(1), 1965, 1979, 1990, 2016
Nov 1948 quick 50% recovery |
1955 - Not quite a 10% decline and
complete recovery.
|
1956
(1) Complete Recovery |
1956 (2) Only 50% recovery |
1960 70% recovery |
1965 Full Recovery |
1971 H/S, 12% decline, 70% recovery |
1978 68% recovery |
1979 Complete Recovery |
1984 12% decline 34% recovery |
1990 Complete recovery |
1994 68% recovery |
2015 Immediate 68% recovery |
2016 Complete Recovery |
2018 70% recovery |