We See Lots of "Down Volume"
Have We Reached A Significant
"What, me worry?"
there been a crescendo of selling that has produced a climactic low. Over 70%
of the volume on the NYSE has been in declining stocks for the 10
days ending 8/3/2007.
Brett Steenbarger reports that since 1960, only 76 times did this
occur out of almost 12,000
trading days. He looked at those cases and he found that
the "market" was up 41 times
and fell 34 times by a week later. However, three weeks out
the market rose only 36 times
and fell 39 times. A month later, 51 of the 75 instances
were lower. That's helpful.
The cases he
lists are mostly in very different circumstances that the present case.
He doesn't list all the cases. But I have decided to
find all the cases where
NYSE down volume jumps to such levels
with the DJI still above the lower band, as it has in
the present case, and within a month
of the DJI making an all-time high. I start with
of 1965. That is the earliest that Barrons distinguished
NYSE Up and Down volume.
There is only one
other case where NYSE down volume so dwarfed NYSE Up Volume.
That was in August 1998 when the
Federal Reserve under Greenspan bailed out the stock
market when billion dollar Long Term Capital Management
collapsed. Compare the charts of
1998 with 2007. Backing and filling like we are now seeing
led to another 12% break in the
market. But then Peerless gave a timely Buy signal and the
market rose sharply.
If you are using Peerless, you would know it's best to wait
Peerless major Buy signal. And you would have been out of the market since
8/18/2007 when the DJI was at 14,000. Are you wondering whether it's to late to Sell
when to Buy. Get Peerless or our Hotline.
Wall Street Is Putting Massive Pressure on Bernacke To Cut Interest Rates
A typical example.
"In 2007, the Federal Reserve is more concerned with inflation, a misplaced concern
U.S. home prices
are still crashing, suggesting incipient deflation is a concern. With the ongoing
affecting the credit markets, Bernanke should cut short-term interest rates now or at the
FOMC meeting. All high-risk segments of the corporate and mortgage-backed market
a clear warning that theres a credit bubble currently unwinding, threatening the
unless immediate liquidity is created to assist all parties and counter-parties affected.
countrys banks are coming undone, sliding to new 52-week lows this week as concerns
loan-losses will increase as sub-prime defaults spread to the next tier of borrowers"
Is This What Lies ahead?
The danger is the market will go into a 1974 like free-fall. Bush like Nixon may be
The US is
in the swamp of a losing Asian ground war. Oil prices are jumping. (I
have to add,
users know there are also significant techincal differences between now and 1974.)