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         Daily Blog - Tiger Software

                                   August 2, 2007

     To Find The Best Short Sales

      Look at The Biggest Decliners
since Our Major Sell on July 17th.

William Schmidt,     - Tiger Software's Creator
      (C) 2007 William Schmidt, Ph. D.  - All Rights Reserved. 

      No reproductions of this blog or quoting from it
      without explicit written consent by its author is permitted.

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      to william_schmidt@hotmail.com

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      To Find The Best Short Sales.

        1.) Locate The Biggest Decliners since Our Major Sell on July 17th. 
        2) They Should Show Heavy Red Distribution and Insider Selling.
        3) They Should Be Breaking Major Support and Making New 12-Month PriceLows.


                  William Schmidt,     - Tiger Software's Creator   (C) 2007 William Schmidt, Ph. D.  - All Rights Reserved. 

                   In a bull market, we search for the first stocks out of the gate.  The best early
           performers usually do very well.  They are the stocks big institutions want to buy en masse.
           In a bear market, the opposite is true.  Find the worst performers in the first stage of
           a big decline and you will find the stocks that will do the worst and may even go bankrupt.

A Look at the biggest decliners since our major Sell on July 17th.   

                        Close     Pct Change
                                       Since 7/17
       AHM            1.48           -90%       
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp
         8/3/2007 Law suit claimes company failed to discolse loan failures.

       RAS             9.82           -56%       
RAIT Financial Trust 
       WCI              7.59           -53%       
WCI Communities Inc,   Luxury condos. 
8/2/2007 Moody's cut WCI's debt deeper into junk  
       OPTM          7.36          -48%    
Optium Corporation
Optical subsystems for use in telecommunications and cable TV network systems.
         7/31/2007 - Downgraded after company forecasts fiscal loss in next quarter.

       FMT             5.74           -48%   
Fremont General Corporation 

       BZH            11.40          -47%

       LEND            8.21          -42%
       MTG           34.76         -39%
       TRMP           6.22         -38%
        CHC            11.29         -34%
        HOV             11.95        -33%
        LEV                6.72        -32%
        BHS              19.66        -31%
        TGIC             26.03        -30%
        SEPR           28.52        -30%
        RWT             31.92        -30%
        JRT               10.03        -30%

        JRCC              8.23        -30%

          A Good Summary of The Apparent Cause for the Decline.
          "The widening fallout in the U.S. mortgage industry has reminded investors of a risk they had forgotten:
          the fear of risk itself.  As unpaid mortgages and bankrupt lenders bring the weakest segments of the
          mortgage industry to its knees, investors have begun dumping debt and other investments that would
          seem to have nothing to do with home loans.  Corporations are paying higher interest rates on their
          bonds (and) some private-equity firms are having trouble raising money to close big purchases...
         Subprime refers to people with spotty credit histories. Fueled by Wall Street's easy money, the subprime
         mortgage market exploded to $1.3 trillion over the past few years. But as home prices sagged and more
         borrowers missed payments on these loans, the industry fell into turmoil this year.  The meltdown of this
        comparatively small segment of the U.S. economy is contributing to a much bigger and broader issue:
        lenders around the world are growing scared to lend."    By Dan Seymour, AP Business Writer  8/1/2007

        When you look at these charts you can see how weak the stocks looked the day of our major Sell
        signal.  We chorted many of these then. My reasoning was if they can't do up in a bull market, surely
        they will go down in a bear market.  You will see multiple sell signals on these charts, support failures
        and heavy distribution by insoder-informed big money holders and short sellers. We have earlier noted
        the insider selling in many of these mortgage company's stocks.  Law suits will surely be filed about the
        insider selling many of them clearly show    See our piece, dated 3/10/2007 - "Insider Selling in Mortage
        Lenders is Being Investigated."

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