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Killer Short
Selling: Using Tiger's Accumulation Index To Spot Insider Selling.
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To Find The Best Short Sales.
1.) Locate The Biggest Decliners since Our
Major Sell on July 17th.
2) They Should Show Heavy Red Distribution and
Insider Selling.
3) They Should Be Breaking Major Support and
Making New 12-Month PriceLows.
William
Schmidt, - Tiger Software's Creator (C) 2007 William
Schmidt, Ph. D. - All Rights Reserved.
In
a bull market, we search for the first stocks out of the gate. The best early
performers usually do very
well. They are the stocks big institutions want to buy en masse.
In a bear market, the
opposite is true. Find the worst performers in the first stage of
a big decline and you will
find the stocks that will do the worst and may even go bankrupt.
A Look at the biggest decliners since our major Sell on July 17th.
Close Pct Change
Since 7/17
AHM
1.48
-90%
American Home Mortgage
Investment Corp
8/3/2007 Law suit claimes company failed to
discolse loan failures.
RAS
9.82
-56%
RAIT Financial Trust
WCI
7.59
-53%
WCI Communities Inc,
Luxury condos.
8/2/2007 Moody's cut
WCI's debt deeper into junk
OPTM
7.36 -48% Optium
Corporation
Optical subsystems for use in
telecommunications and cable TV network systems.
7/31/2007 - Downgraded after company
forecasts fiscal loss in next quarter.
FMT
5.74
-48% Fremont
General Corporation
BZH
11.40
-47%
LEND 8.21
-42%
MTG 34.76
-39%
TRMP
6.22
-38%
CHC
11.29
-34%
HOV
11.95
-33%
LEV
6.72
-32%
BHS
19.66
-31%
TGIC
26.03
-30%
SEPR
28.52
-30%
RWT
31.92
-30%
JRT
10.03
-30%
JRCC 8.23
-30%
A Good Summary of The Apparent
Cause for the Decline.
1
"The widening fallout in the
U.S. mortgage industry has reminded investors of a risk they had forgotten:
the fear of risk itself. As
unpaid mortgages and bankrupt lenders bring the weakest segments of the
mortgage industry to its knees,
investors have begun dumping debt and other investments that would
seem to have nothing to do with
home loans. Corporations are paying higher interest rates on their
bonds (and) some private-equity
firms are having trouble raising money to close big purchases...
Subprime refers to people with spotty
credit histories. Fueled by Wall Street's easy money, the subprime
mortgage market exploded to $1.3 trillion
over the past few years. But as home prices sagged and more
borrowers missed payments on these loans,
the industry fell into turmoil this year. The meltdown of this
comparatively small segment of the U.S. economy
is contributing to a much bigger and broader issue:
lenders around the world are growing scared to
lend." By Dan
Seymour, AP Business Writer 8/1/2007
When you look at these charts you can see how
weak the stocks looked the day of our major Sell
signal. We chorted many of these then. My
reasoning was if they can't do up in a bull market, surely
they will go down in a bear market. You
will see multiple sell signals on these charts, support failures
and heavy distribution by insoder-informed big
money holders and short sellers. We have earlier noted
the insider selling in many of these mortgage
company's stocks. Law suits will surely be filed about the
insider selling many of them clearly show
See our piece, dated 3/10/2007 - "Insider Selling in Mortage
Lenders is Being Investigated."
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