Prospects for A "Summer Rally"


Spring Fever Joke

Four high school boys afflicted with spring fever skipped morning classes.
After lunch they reported to the teacher that they had a flat tire.

Much to their relief she smiled and said, "Well, you missed a test today so
take seats apart from one another and take out a piece of paper."

Still smiling, she waited for them to sit down. Then she said:
"First Question: Which tire was flat?"

......................................................................................................................

Summer Solstice

In the northern hemisphere, the longest day of the year (near June 22)
when the Sun is farthest north.  Shakespeare's Midsummer Night
occurred on this day.  The Druids believed midsummer was the
"Apex of Light," when  the Oak King gave way to the gloomier
Holly King who reigned until the Winter Solstice.

Astrology, Seasonality and the Stock Market
"All signs are pointing to a downturn in the stock market, and there
are multiple scandals going on in our government..."
Lynn Hayes - astrodynamics.blogspot.com/2006/06/summer-solstice-and-nodal-shift.html

                                   Summer Rally?

        How does the market behave behave from June 22nd
        for the next two months when it has already had a big gain in the first
        part of the year, as in 2007?  The new book I am writing gives us the
        answer for the DJI-30.

               There were 25 cases when the DJI-30 rose steadily in the first 5 months
        of the year and was up more than 12%.  In 7 (28%) cases, the DJI rose steadily
        for the rest of the year. In the other 72% of cases, tops that brought declines of more
        than 10% followed before the end of the year.  Consider how often these tops
        took place in the subsequent months from June through December.  From this
        we may conclude that there is a 68% probability of at least a 10% correction
        by the end of October this year.
                  June    1950, 1954
                  July     1919, 1933, 1943, 1975, 1986, 1997, 1998
                  August 1987, 1999
                  September 1955, 1967, 1976
                  October    1922, 1927, 1989
                  November    1925, 1935
                  December

                 A top in July is the most likely scenario for 2007, but there is a 28% chance,
          based on these case, that there will be no significant top.  Using Peerless
          will give us the best read on the market as time goes by this summer.  Nearly
          all the significant tops were called by Peerless as they were occurring or
          soon before or afterwards..      
 
  1915 - Ascending triangle breakout at 72.5 and rallied strongly to 100 by end of year.
  1919 - 10% correction starting on 7/14 and lasting until 8/20. Peerless will show
              you how this top would have been spotted.
   1922 - Flat topped breakout and DJI peaked on 10/16
   1925  - Flat topped breakout and DJI did not peak until 11/6.
   1927  - Early July breakout and steep advance until 10/3.  Peerless will show
               you how this top would have been spotted.
    1933 - DJI-30 peaked on 7/19 and fell 17% in 4 trading days. Peerless will
               show you how this top would have been spotted.
    1935 - June breakout led to a strong advance until 11/20. 
    1943 - DJI peaked on 7/16 and fell 11% over next five months.    Peerless will
               show you how this reversal would have been spotted.
    1950 - DJI peaked on 6/12 and then fell 15%.  Peerless will show you how
                this reversal would have been spotted.
    1954 - Breakout in DJI-30 in late June. The DJI rallied for the rest of the year,
    1955 - DJI rallied until 9/23 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this reversal would have been spotted.
    1967 - DJI rallied until 9/25 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this reversal would have been spotted.
    1975 -  DJI rallied until 7/15 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this reversal would have been spotted.
     1976 - DJI rallied until 9/22 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this reversal would have been spotted
     1983 - DJI rallied until January of the next year.
     1986 - DJI rallied until 7/2 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted.
     1987 - DJI rallied until 8/26 and then fell 36%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted.
     1989 - DJI rallied until 10/9 and then fell 10%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted
     1991 - DJI moved sidewise and up all year.   
     1993 - DJI moved sidewise and up all year.
     1995 - DJI moved sidewise and up all year.
     1997 -  DJI rallied until 7/31 and then fell 15%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted.
     1998 -  DJI rallied until 7/20 and then fell 20%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted.
     1999 -  DJI rallied until 8/24 and then fell 20%. Peerless will show you how
                this top would have been spotted.
     2003 - Flat topped breakout in August and DJI-30 moved up for rest of year.
    

    Seasonality has its fans among stock market investors.
Tiger believes in its value.  For example, the TigerSoft programs
tell us that after June 21sth since 1965 the DJI has been
weak for two weeks and then gets stronger.

          Holding Period   Avg, Pct Change     Pct. of Years
                                    in DJI-30                  that DJI-30 was up.
          ---------------     -----------------     --------------------
          1 trading day         0.1%                        62.5%
           2 trading days      0.0%                         50.0%
           3 trading days     -0.2%                        52.5%
           5 trading days     -0.3%                        37.5%     1 week
           10 trading days -0.5%                        40.0%     2 weeks
           21 trading days -0.4%                        50.0%    1 month
           42 trading days  0.2%                         60.0%    2 months