| Daily Blog - Tiger Software |
Tuesday - June 19, 2007
Big Stock Market Declines in Year ending in "7"
Coincidence or Something Significant?. I have my views. But did you
know that years ending in "7" have since 1887 always had a significant pullback
or bear market? My new book Peerless Stock Market Timing: 1915-2007 will
help clarify and explain the phenomenon. The average DJI-30 Decline at some point in a
year year ending in "7" is 23%! With the DJI up a record 51 months without
a 10% correction, now would be a good time to start using Peerless Stock Market Timing.
Table FALLS IN YEARS ENDING IN "7"
1837 Panic
......
1887 September 19 (-2.24%) & October 12 (-2.29%)
1897 September 21 (-3.95%) & October 12 (-3.90%)
1907 Declined whole year from 90 to 55 in November 37% decline.
Major banking panic October 22.
---------------------- My study starts in 1915 -----------------------------------
1917 Early June peak at 99.... Bottom in December at 66 ... 33% decline.
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1927 Peak on 10/4 at 200... Fell to 181 on 10/24... 9.5% decline
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1937 Peak was at 190 on 8/16 ... Fell to 113.6 on 11/24 October 18 ...40% decline
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1947 Peak was at 184 on 2/11... Fell to 163.60 on May 20. ...10.9% decline
On going- bear market which was started with major "Sell S12" on October 14, 1946
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1957 Peak was at 521 on 7/12... Fell to 419.80 on October 22. ...19.4% decline
Classic "Sell S9" at upper 3.0% band.
"Sell 12": Tip off was Accum.Index was <+.05 at upper 3% band.
Credit crunch. Sputnik
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1967 Peak was at 943 on 9/25... Fell to 826 on March 22. ...12.4% decline
Timely Major Sell
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1977 On-going bear market which did not bottom until March 1978...
...19.0% decline
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1987 Peak was at 2702 on 8/26... Fell to 1739 on October 19. ...35.6% decline
10/1 at 2639 "Sell 12":
10/2 at 2640 Classic "Sell S9" 34.1% decline
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1997 Peak was at 8015.5 on 10/1... Fell to7498 on 10/28 6.5% decline
"Sell 12":
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2007 ???? DJI