Daily Blog - Tiger Software

                              June 18,  2007
                    Global Boom or Bubble?
   William Schmidt,     - Tiger Software's Creator
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Monday - June 18, 2007  
Global Boom or Bubble?

     I seriously doubt if more than 10% of Americans realize how rapidly many overseas
stock markets are rising.   There is a lot of  talk, though, about a Chinese "bubble".  
But it is really a Brazilian, Chilean, Indonesian, Indian, Sri Lanan, Turkean...etc 
and a Chinese "bubble".  Admittedly, the Chinese Shanghai Composite is up particularly
steeply in the last 2 years, from 1000 in mid 2005 to 4000 now, or  +300%...   "The USA
is being left behind", some would say, "because the war in Iraq, which started in 2003, is
putting the USA further and further behind in the quest for international capital."    Personally,
I am delighted that millions and millions of people worldwide are probably living much
better lives. As investors, we have to take advantage of these trends.  We cannot control them. 

.  See the Multi-Year Charts. of these countries' stock markets,

                                                              Early 2003         Now            Gain
                    Mexico IPC                             6000                30000         + 400%
                    Indonesia Jakarta Composite     400                 2000          +400%
                    Brazil Bovespa                       10000               50000      ... +400%
                    Turkey ISE National 100      10000                47500     ... +375%
                    India BSE30                            3000               14000         + 367%
                    Chile IPSA Index                       800                3200       .. +300%
                    Sri Lanka All Share                    700               2600      ... + 264%
                    Sweden Stockholm 30             450                1250      ... +175%
                    Chinese Shanghai Composite  1500               4000           +167%
                    DJI-30                                     7500               13500           +80%

     Of course, we will have to be watchful for a top.  If the Japanese "bubble" of the
1980's that ended in early 1990 is a proper example, we will see major Peerless
Sell S9 signals, just as we did in 1989 and 1990 at the top.  From October 1989
to July 1990, Peerless gave three separate sets of major Sell S9 signals.
  wpe1E.jpg (49801 bytes)                    
   Japanese Bubble peaked in early 1990 - Raised interest rates and corruption are given the blame.
But Peerless called it.  Three major Sells in a 9 month period followed by a breaking of support is

wpe1F.jpg (42407 bytes)                 
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