After A Presidential Election:
DJI: 1917-2009
There have been 12 cases of bear markets in the year
after a Presidential Election that started in the first half
of the year. 1929's debacle began in September. When the
TigerSoft Accum. Index or the OPct is negative and below its ma,
we have to be most careful.
A Democrat coming into office beats the odds:
FDR - 1933 ... February bottom and strong rally.
JFK - 1961 ... 1961 was strong from the start of the year.
Clinton - 1993 ... gradual rally...and 1997
LBJ - 1965
Obama - ?
The Republican exceptions are 1925, 1985 and 1989.
2008 Feb - OPct is above its rising ma. It needs to weaken
below its ma to be bvearish..
Top
1917 - May-June ...decline to Dec.
1921 - late April ... decline to August
1937 - March ... decline to June.
1941 - Jan ... decline to May
1949 - Jan ... decline to June.
1953 - Jan ... decline to September.
1969 - May... decline to May 1970
1973 - Jan ... decline to Dec 1974.
1977 - Jan ... decline to March 1978.
1981 - April ... decline to Sept 1981 and Aug 1982.
2001 - May ... decline to Sept.
2005 - March ... decline to April 2005..
2008-2009
