| Excerpts from
our Peerless Forecasts' Thrice Weekly Hotline. Ocober 2004 Bottom to March 2005 Here are key comments from this service. You will find subscribing to it is a great way to LEARN HOW TO FORECAST THE MARKET USING PEERLESS AND TIGERSOFT TOOLS and TO MAKE MONEY AT THE SAME TIME. I have been providing written forecasts of the market since 1984. As time and archives permit, I will try to put together a Long History of these comments at important market turning points. Many say, however, you're |only as good as your most recent successes. Our system continues to do a great job. The comments are arranged from earliest to the last. As you scroll down, you can see the comments and then see a little lower what actually happened. Here is a chart as of 3/4/2005 of the DJIA with Peerless signals. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=9757.81
10/22/2004 ... Friday's data. The DJI'S WEAKNESS HAS BROUGHT IT CLOSE TO LOWER BAND AT 9700. THERE IS ALSO A DECLINING SUPPORT LINE AT 9622. A FALL BELOW THIS WOULD BE SCARY! AND A DECLINE BELOW 9600 WOULD HAVE TO BE TREATED AS A SELL S10. BUT UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, I THINK WE HAVE TO TAKE A CONSTRUCTIVE VIEW OF THE MARKET. The DJI has now got two (new Peerless) Buy B8's. This year at the lower band this has always been a good BUY signal. The NYSE A/D Line is very strong still. nd the number of NYSE + NASDAQ new highs is 215, while their number of new lows is 98. Seasonality is quite bullish... |
| HOTLINE - DJIA=10027
- 10/29/2004 ... Friday's data. (At what proved to be an intermediate-term bottom.) The DJI, NASDAQ, QQQ HAVE EACH RALLIED TO THE RESISTANCE OF THEIR 10 MONTH PRICE DOWN-TRENDLINES. THESE ARE WELL-TESTED AND A BREAKOUT WOULD BE QUITE BULLISH. I THINK WE HAVE TO GIVE THE MARKET A CHANCE TO SCORE A BREAKOUT HERE, MOST LIKELY AFTER A SLIGHT PAUSE. HOWEVER, A DECLINE ON RISING VOLUME WOULD BE DISCONCERTING. Bullishly, we have BUY B8's on the DJI chart, short-term Buys on the QQQ as well as the OEX (540.66, 545 is resistance). However, the BBH (Biotech Index) has just given a new short-term SELL. . And the SOX and SPX are also on SELLs. But breadth has been very good and seasonality is clearly bullish after the election is over... Arthur Merrill's study of the Presidential Election years shows Novembers like Octobers between 1886 and 1983 have nearly a 68% probability of a rally. Since 1984, 3 of the 4 Presidential Election Year Octobers brought DJI rallies. Since 1984, the DJI rallied 13 times in October and fell only 6 times. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10387.54
-- 11/05/2004 ... Friday The Bush Victory Is Boosting The Market Short-Term. The DJI Has Reached Its Upper Band with The V-Indicator Negative. So We Had an Sell S9V on Thursday. There have been 5 cases of November S9 signals after a bull market: 1967 - DJI decline delayed until January and then the drop took DJI below lower band. 1980 - DJI immediately fell below the lower band. 1983 - DJI immediately fell half way to lower band from 21-day ma and then in Janauary peaked and declined way below the lower band. 1999 - DJI peaked in January and the fell below the lower band. 2000 - DJI immediately fell to lower band, rallied until January and then declined way below from a January peak. So, only in two of the five cases did the DJI drop to the lower band immediately after a November S9. In all 5 cases the Nov-S9 presaged of a bigger decline that would typically occur only after a January, or in 1980 a March, peak. For now I would still give the market more room to advance, and look for a peak in December or January. Do not underestimate the power of a Republican victory in bringing money off the sidelines. In 1972, when Nixon was re-elected the DJI made a classic B10 breakout on November 9th. It's true that Bush's 2000 November victory coincided with a short-term top, but that was in a period when the NYSE A/D LIne was near its 12-month lows. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10386
--11/09/2004 ... Tuesday Seasonality and the Buy B18 Should Propel the Market Higher. Partisians typically boost the market a lot now. The DJI is at the upper band and seems to be consolidating its gains well. The V-Indicator is, however, only barely positive. And the Hourly DISI is not confirming. Watch the 10-day NYSE-Up Volume. It will need to start expanding to let the market take out the resistance at 10400, then 10500 and then at 10700. The NYSE A/D Line remains strong and is making new highs. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10470 --
11/11/2004 ... Thursday Seasonality and the Buy B18 Should Continue to Propel the Market Higher. Partisians are boosting the market a lot now and the DJI is at the upper band and consolidating well. A challenge of 10700 seems likely. The Hourly DISI, however, is not confirming. This suggests to me the bulls will not have the ammunition to move the market past the 10700 level. We have to recognize that the NYSE volume is not rising like it should if this were the start of a new runaway advance. So, watch the daily volume. It will need to pick up to allow much higher prices. On the plus side, the NYSE A/D Line remains very strong and is making new highs. Most new reversals occur when a new high is made by the DJI and the A/D Line starts to lag. ..Arthur Merrill's study shows Presidential Election year Octobers and Novembers tend to rally at a 67% clip. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10457 --
11/19/2004 ... Friday Bullish Seasonality and the Buy B18 Should Continue to Propel the Market Higher. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10522 --
11/26/2004 ... Friday Bullish Seasonality and the Buy B18 Should Continue to Propel the Market Higher. But Volume Signs Suggest A Market Pause as the DJI approaches 10700 (180 points higher) and the NASDAQ gets closer to its 12 month high at 2150 (48 points higher.) Though, the Hourly DISI is lagging by a bearish margin, breadth (advances-declines, (new highs - new lows) is so good, we have to look for higher prices. Usually, the DJI tops out after the NYSE A/D Line. Since the A/D Line is making new recovery highs, it pays to be bullish. Let your profits run some more. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10592 --
12/3/2004 ... Friday The significant Bearish Hourly Volume Divergence Continues. That a price correction is very likely is also suggested by the weak seasonlity for the next two weeks...After that the probability of a Santa Claus rally is very high through end of year. At this point the ratio of new highs to new lows of the NYSE and the NASDAQ remains more than 10:1. Big declines usually start after new highs are made (and that would require a DJI move past 10750) with the NYSE A/D Line failing to confirm the new highs. The operative Peerless signals remain BUYs. ..The NASDAQ stands at 2147.96. It is now back to its January peak. That is where resistance should come in. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10542
-- 12/10/2004 ... Friday The Bearish Hourly Volume Divergence does not seem able to bring a market break. The DJI is locked in a narrow trading range defined by hourly support at 10420 and hourly resistance at 10600. A break of that support would be bearish. But the NYSE A/D Line is in a steady uptrend. An upside breakout would be bullish enough, I think to take the DJI to 10800... Any price correction of the advance of the last 6 weeks is very likely to be shallow. Decembers just do not have a history of producing deep declines. Since 1965, the only occasions when December produced drops below the lower band were in early Decembers 1969, 1974 and 1987, plus briefly in early December 1980. |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10650 --
12/17/2004 ... Friday Friday brought more bearish revelations about undesirable side effects of popular drugs. PFE and MRK are both in DJI-30. It looks like the weakness in PFE will have the same depressing effect that MRK did on the DJI in October. The overall market still looks strong. And Peerless gave a new B13. It's time for the Santa Claus rally. There are still 4 more DJI stocks on optimized Red Buys than Sells. There are 3 more on MACD buys than sells. There are 11 more with rising Closing Power than with falling Closing Power. The very bullish seasonality of December and the operative B4 and B18 signals are not close to being reversed by major Sell signals. ... Seasonality for the DJI is very bullish now. Looking out 10 trading days, the DJI has risen in this period 77.1% of the time!... The NASDAQ's seasonality since 1988 is even more bullish. If the period since 1988 is relevant or a large enough sample, then the odds of the NASDAQ rising after 10 trading days is 93.3% and the average gain is 3.4% |
| HOTLINE -- DJIA=10827 --
12/23/2004 ... Thursday The overall market still looks quite strong. Peerless has given its Buy B13; it's time for the Santa Claus rally. Arthur Merrill's study shows a 72.4% probability that the| day before Christmas will see the DJI up, using the data from 1897-1983. But the odds of it rallying the day afterward are only 52.9%. There are 11 more DJI stocks on MACD buys than sells. There are 18 more DJI 30 stocks that have rising Closing Powers than declining Closing Powers. The NYSE A/D Line remains in a strong uptrend as the DJI made another 3 year closing high today, despite the awful news background for MRK, PFE and now PG! A market that can shrug off this type of news wants to go higher! |
| Hotline 12/31/2004 -- DJIA=10783 (At what proved to be short-term top.) Volume is disappearing and volume is needed to eat up the overhead supply. It will have to pick up as the new year starts, or the DJI uptrend will broken. The Buy B15 tells us the uptrend has gone long enough to build up a force of buyers who will likely turn up the next decline below the 21-day ma, now at 10566.35. The NASDAQ looks like it is ready to breakout above the upper boundary in its bullish ascending triangle. Volume has dimminished greatly. The NASDAQ OBV Line may not confirm. This is a sign that the uptrend is losing its power. There are only 3 more DJI stocks on MACD buys than sells, down 5 from this Thursday...The upside potential is becoming more limited. Looking at the individual DJI stocks, it's not clear which ones, apart from KO, DIS, DD, JNJ, MCD, MO, and UTX, still have a lot of upside potential. Now PFE has bounced back to its declining 21-day ma. and 50-day ma and MRK is nearly back to the edge of its gap down in September. IBM is making a recovery high but shows a very negative Accumulation Index. |
| HOTLINE 1/7/2005 - DJIA=10603
The DJI fell another 18. It is now 100 points below its 21-day ma at 10702. Its lower band is at 10327. The P-Indicator remains positive (+156), but the V-Indicator dropped to -52 and the Accumulation Index dropped ot -.027. This still looks like a shakeout in a rising market. The operative Peerless major signal is a Buy B15. This tells us that there should be a lot of buyers to boost prices on the first decline below the 21-day ma. Sharp sell offs in the first few days of January are rare without an S9 or an S12 signal. If we look at the 5 cases since 1966 when the DJI fall the first or the first two weeks of January when the market trend was up or sidewise, and not a bear market, we see 5 cases. In 3, the DJI retreated to a point about half way between the moving average and the lower band and then rallied strongly (1986, 1993 and 1996). In one it fell to the lower band then rallied (1998) and in one case it fell below the lower band and started a bear market (1977). From this, I conclude the odds are 4:1 that this decline now is not the start of a bear market and that a rally is likely soon. It's true that 1977 was a year of sharply rising oil prices and inflation. But then the Treasury Secretary (Volker) was unfriendly to the Democratic President. |
| HOTLINE 1/14/2005
- DJIA=10558 This still looks like a shakeout in a rising market. The operative Peerless major signal is a Buy B15. This tells us that there should be a lot of buyers to boost prices on the first decline below the 21-day ma. and half way to the lower band. That is nearly where we are now. Except for 1977, bear markets have not started without an S9 or an S12 and suddenly swooned at the beginnning of a new year. The QQQQ has a completed head and shoulders pattern. This is apt to scare traders away from NASDAQ stocks for a while. The NDX is on a Red Sell, this from its 21- day Tiger Traders' Tool. Its head and shoulders pattern looks scary. In general, it is better to wait for such a pattern to play itself out, rather than insist it is misleading and can be ignored. Blue chips stocks will probably be the first to turn up. Seasonality for the DJI now is bearish short term... Looking out 1-10 trading days, the DJI has risen in this period less than 47.1% of the time. But for 21 trading days and longer the DJI rises more than 55.9% of the time. Over the next 21 trading days, the odds of the DJI rallying are 55.9%. The average rise is 1% looking out a month. |
| HOTLINE - 1/21/2005
... DJIA=10393... Lower Band Is Being Approached with new B11 Buys. The Buy B15 tells us to expect the first dip for the DJI after the B15 to be treated as a buying opportunity. In addition, the now present B11 are signals are usually powerful and reliable. The 20-day Stochastic-Pct-D for the DJI has now reached 11. This is very close to the levels that have brought rallies, going back over the last 12-months. |
| HOTLINE 1/28/2005
DJIA=10427 A Bottom Seems To Be Forming..Buy B11's work out nearly 80% of the time. Cover More of Short Sales ... I think we have to respect the recent B11 signals, given their historic track record. New software to review the history of Peerless singals since 1965 should be ready soon. It shows that the previous 84 B11's showed a profit 77.4% of the time at the next Peerless sell signal of any type... Better would have been to just hold until the next major Sell. The odds of a profit then rise to 79.8% and the average gain jumps to 4.4%. |
| HOTLINE 2/4/2005
DJIA=10716 The DJI Exploded Past 10650 To Negate Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern. Breadth and Rising NYSE Up Volume Are Bullish Signs, but Februaries are a Problem in The Year After A Presidential Election. And NASDAQ Up Volume Is Low and The Rally is Being Led by Defensive Issues and Oil and Gas Stocks. I Would Expect A Top Near 11000. This is in keeping with the bullishness of the Buy B11. The NYSE Adv-Decl Line has now made a new 12 month high. The P-Indicator rose to +328. However, the V-Indicator remains slightly negative as does the Accum. Index. The DJI is now 180 points over its 21-day ma. Expect resistance at 10900. The weekly DJI chart suggests a target of at least 11100. |
| HOTLINE 2/11/2005
DJIA=10796 The DJI is now challenging the resistance between 10800 and 10900 from the late December rally. The internal strength indicators are still rising. The P-Indicator and Accum.Index are positive. The V-Indicator is still negative. Februaries the year after a Presidential Election rise less than 40% of the time. But the weakest part of them is almost over. The NYSE A/D Line has been very strong. Such good breadth argues against a big decline. We have no Peerless DJI Sell signal. So we must give the market a chance to move higher. A typical B11 gain here would take the DJI above 10900.. The weekly DJI chart suggests a target of at least 11100. . I am also impressed that the DJI found support after declining only a little more than 33% of what it had gained in the October-December rally. That is typical of a strong market environment. ................................... |
| HOTLINE 2/18/2005
...DJIA=10785 THE SELL S13 WEAKNESS IS PROBABLY MINOR GIVEN THE OPERATIVE MAJOR BUY B15. THE DJI SHOULD FIND AMPLE SUPPORT AT 10400. The DJI has been turned back by the resistance above 10800. S13 Sell signals have worked well this past year... as long as the V-Indicator stays negative. It is now -2. The seasonality is bearish for the next few trading days. But after that, seasonality turns bullish. The P-, V- and Accum. Indicators improved Friday. Many times the market is leery of rallying when the President is out of the country. The market may want to wait this week out before rallying. I did notice in doing the Elite report that two bullish stocks turned up nicely on Friday with their OBV making new highs ahread of price. WSTM is a high Accum.Index (AI/200=198) stock that is challenging its 12-month high of 4.02. I would Buy it for a good breakout move. TKP (AI/200=183) just rose above its 50-day ma on high volume. If its Acc.Index stays positive for the next 6 weeks, its AI/200 score will become a perfect 200. Buy TKP. |
| HOTLINE 2/25/2005
DJIA =10841 THE OPERATIVE MAJOR PEERLESS SYSTEM IS STILL ON A BUY. ALL 3 KEY PEERLESS DJI INDICATORS ARE NOW POSITIVE. MARCH IS TYPICALLY A MUCH BETTER MONTH FOR THE MARKET THAN FEBRUARY. A CHALLENGE OF 10900 IS IN THE MAKING. A MOVE PAST THAT WOULD BE VERY BULLISH, AS LONG AS VOLUME RISES TO CONFIRM THE MOVE. The DJI is testing the resistance at 10900 created by its highs in December and early February. The operative major Peerless BUY signals are B18 (`11/8/2004), B4 (11/15/2004) and B15 (12/30/2004). Intermediate-Long Term investors and traders should also take heart from the market's good breadth: the NYSE A/D Line is within a hair of another new high in a steady uptrend that goes back to May last year. The way the market disposed of the normally bearish month of February was impressive and is bullish. Our stock screening of 7000 stocks found lots of bullish stocks, but only a few that meet strict bearish conditions...It is significantly bullish that the V-Indicator has turned positive. (The S13 is weakened or nullified.) |
| HOTLINE 3/8/2005
DJIA=10912...NYSE VOLUME IS NOT
CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH TO TACKLE THE OVERHEAD SUPPLY WITHOUT LOTS OF HUFFING AND POUGHING, RALLIES AND PULLBACKS. THE RISE IN OIL PRICES AND THE COMMODITY INDEX IS BEARISH, BECAUSE INTEREST RATES ARE APT TO RATCHET UP SOONER THAN LATER... 3/8/2005 ... The DJI (10912.47) pullled back towards the previous resistance-now support at 10900 created by its highs in December and early February.... The failure of the NASDAQ to get above even its 50-day ma as the DJI rose to a 12-month high shows that the market is not firing on all engines. A pullback by the DJI or a catch-up by the NASDAQ usually occurs next. The DJI is trying to eat up overhead resistance. The weekly DJI chart shows that. NYSE volume is (only) flat... The V-Indicator is negative despite the DJI's move over 10900. The P-Indicator weakened to +148. The Accumulation Index (+.023) weakened considerably. Note the bearish OBV (DISI) divergence on the Hourly DJI chart. These are short-term warnings. The NASDAQ-Peerless remains on a Sell. The "NASDJI" has now been negative for 10 weeks.
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