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   TigerSoft - Serving All Investors since 1981.
       Real-Time Peerless Stock Market Timing:
           Buy and Sell Signals - 1981-2012

(C) 2012 www.tigersoft.com and William Schmidt, Ph.D.

We are always looking for ways to imrove our software.  So, we do tinker with
                   the Buy and Sell rules when we learn something that tests well back to 1928
                   or even earlier.  But the basic signals have remained the same since 1981,
                   We do back-testing of the key
current market conditions nearly every night.
                   This and the automatic Buys and Sells are a major part of what our Nightly Hotline
                   offers.    Each night it also shows the stocks Insider and Professionals are
                   buying and selling the most steadily.     $350 - Order form 

                   Our old nightly HOTLINEs and BLOGs abundantly show that REAL-TIME
                 . our studies of market history and our automatic Peerless Buys and Sells
                   have paid off time and time again for our customers.  No better case was
                   when our October 2nd, 1987 Hotline warned that a "Crash" was coming. 
                   The same thing occurred in early 2000 and again in July 2007.  Please read 
                   our Blog on June 24, 2007   
                   See also TigerSoft Predictions Have Made Lots of Subscribers Bundles.
The 1929 Crash: Could It Happen Again?  
                          Yes- Absolutely.   

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                                  PEERLESS DJIA CHART - OCTOBER 1987 CRASH
"Major Sell"
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                                                 The Buy signals were just as timely. 

                  There are times when aggressive Buying is justified.   Peerless identified the market bottom
                  in March 2009 as such a time.  It has been bullish for the period since, with the exception of
                  about a  few weeks in October 2009. April-June 2010 and July-October 2011.  The automatic
                  Buys and Sells that Peerless gives on the DJIA has made the difference.  And they can be
                  super-imposed on nearly all stocks and ETFs.  The results of the real-time signals in 2011-2012
                  were great.  Amazing, actually.  We cannot guarantee results like this every year!

                                                   Real-Time Peerless Signals: 2011-2012
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                 Below, the Buys and Sells on Peerless are shown on the chart of the QQQQ-Nasdaq-100 in 2009.
                 The gain there was more than 100% buying and selling short on the opening the day after
                  the Peerless signal for the time shown.   

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                 You can see the Peerless signals superimposed on the SPY since 1981 elsewhere on
                 this site.  The annualzed rate of return, going long and short is more than 30%.  We realize
                 this is an astounding figure.  Read on and you'll see this in consistent our real time track
                 record, shown here, since 1981.  You'll also see where we occasionally modified Peerless
                 to take into account new research.  Now with data back to 1915, we can seasonal patterns,
                 for example, that we missed when we originally wrote Peerless based on only the data
                 for 1970-1981.  On the other hands, the core concepts of Peerless derived just from the
                 study of 1970-1981 have worked amazingly well real-time since 1981 and they worked very
                 well in the period 1915-1970.  Not to use such reliable signals would, in our opinion, be
                 a very big mistake.  Stock market tops and bottoms can be called.  And it just is not that
                 hard, as I think, you will see even in this introduction.

               Use Peerless to learn when you must get out of the market or go aggressively short.
               These are times when Buying and Holding is Very Dangerous!   We easily escaped the 1987
               Crash and forsesaw the 2000-2003 bear market.  The same signals showed us when to sell at the
               top as the DJI fell more than 52% between October 2007 and March 2009.

               Users of Peerless and/or our Hotline made a lot of money in this period by selling and selling short.
               Peerless was designed not only to prevent losses in a bear market, but to help traders have even more
               buying power at the bear market's bottom than when the bear market started.

                                                    DJI -2008 and Real-Time Peerless Signals
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  The History of Peerless Stock Market Timing:
          Buy and Sell Signals - 1981-2010

                             Peerless Market Timing Software 
                                     Market Timing Matters!     1915-2012 
                                     Book/Software: Major Buys/Sells.
                                                 Special  $
495 Order here. 

                                          by William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                                            (C) 2012 www.tigersoft.com

Peerless Stock Market Timing was invented in 1981, based on a close computerized study
of 1970-1982 data which I hand-entered into an Apple Computer.  I remember the first
sale I made.  It was in September 1981 in a brokerage office in Albuquerque.  I showed them
the way the P-Indicator was improving even as the DJI kept declining.  I said it should bring
a rally to the upper band.  (I initiated the use of bands built a fiixed percentage away from
a moving average.)  It did and I made a sale a few days later.

A few years later,   I reviewed the data back to 1965 and added the very important Sell S12. 
Between 1990 and 2006, only small changes were made.  But starting in 2007, I began a
very exhaustive study of the DJI's data back to 1928 and where possible back to 1915,
though only the DJI's closes and daily volume were available from 1915-1928.  This older
data showed quite clearly the importance of seasonality and gave me important clues about
how to recognize the onset of a 1930s style depression and deflation.  The signals' changes
have always been reported in the TigerSoft/Peerless Hotline as they were added. 

Generally, the signals grew out of my own background, reading and observations.  A big part of my drive
to succeed here came from losing money in the 1978 October Massacre while on vacation.   Another
part stemmed from seeing illegal insider trading on Wall Street first hand and wanting to not be beholden
to others, who only trusted networked insider information.  I have an abiding interest in history, mathematics
and technical analysis.  There are few pursuits where one can better continuously test and sharpen
one's predictive skills than in the stock market.  Perhaps, its does help keep one's wits as one
gets older, too.  In the process, I have created tools which have proven their value to thousands of
customers for years and years.  I invite you to discover what I have learned over 28 years...
See also: October 28, 2008   The Biggest US Stock Market Declines: 1916-2008

Here is a year-by-year review of the real-time Peerless Buys and Sells since 1981.   You will see how
durable they have been.  Peerless has had a few new signals added when circumstances and back-testing
showed it was warranted.  Our Peerless Hotline (on-line each night) discusses the signals as they
occur and are simultaneously introduced.  Many nights I find I can take unusual market behavior and
find enough historical parallels to make very good predictions, simply based on historical probabilities
of 65% -75%.  Note that the Peerless Buys and Sells pass a higher standard.   They typically
profitable 85% of the time or more, going back to 1928 or earlier. ..

                                  Real Time Signals: 1981-2009


The first sale of Peerless Stock Market Timing Software took place in Albuquerque in September 1981.
I walked into a brokerage office with an Apple II+ under my arm and showed how Peerless worked
and told them it had just given a buy signal.  This was the day before the Buy B17, as now displayed.
The signal occurred because the P-Indicator (proprietary) had improved as the DJI declined and made
a new low near 820.  The market rose as I had predicted and a few days later I had my first customer.

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        The DJI, I found, typically trades within a band a fixed percentage above and below a key moving
average.  I was the first person, I know of, to use price bands.  So, I could claim that I invented them,
if anyone cares. They have become very popular.  In March 1982, the DJI fell to new lows in February
and March.  The P-Indicator did not confirm the price lows by making lower lows, itself.  The February Buy B8
reflects that divergence.  Rallies don't always start immediately.  But you can see that a rally did develop
in March and April.  The Sell S9 is a classic Peerless Sell.  It was premature.   Some are and some are not.
We have rules that tell us what to do when the signal does not work right away.  The Hotline discusses them.
A new Peerless manual will, too, when it is published.  Note how prices make new minor highs in April
and May 1982 with the P-Indicator not making corresponding new highs.  There we call "divergences".
They tell us a to expect a decline.  This concept of divergences jumped out at me from looking back
closely at the data from 1972 to 1982, the basis of the original Peerless.
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     In July 1982, I went to Denver to see a stock broker with Merrill Lynch who said he wanted to
buy the Peerless program.  I told him of the July Sell S9s.  He said I should come back the next
day and buy the software.  I showed up.  But he took a day off and did not buy the software.
But the signal I told him worked out.  Sure enough, the DJI retreated back to the lower band.

The DJI fell just below 780 to a false new low and then quickly recovered. Our P-Indicator
had shown that it was a false decline and we should Buy.  That was the Buy B8 in the chart below. 
Soon afterward, word spread that interest rates would finally be dropped by the Fed.  The
market took off.  Note the Buy B12 and B13 signals.  These were added at this time, after
back-testing for the 1970s showed that they tested well.  One of the key conditions for the
Buy B12 and Buy B13 is a sudden upward explosion in trading volume.  That is readily displayed
with the Peerless charts.  Above all, notice how many Peerless Buys there were.  This was taken
at the time to be very, very bullish.  And it was.  This was the start of the long upswing from
780 to 14150 in 2007.

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     The multitude of major Peerless Buys showed how bullish the market was at the end of
1982.  This was the start of the long bull market that only ended in 2001.  Each numbered
signal has its own track record.  The Buy B12 is the most bullish of all the Peerless signals.
Price trendlines are easy to draw with Peerless.  The Peerless manual will discuss which ones
are most reliable.
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1983   It is not unusual after a 6 months' rally for Peerless to then give a Sell.  One such signal
is only associated with a minor decline to the lower band.  It's the occurrence of multiple Sells
that longer term investors must be wary of.
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            By January 1984, there had been 3 major Sells in 7 months.  This often setups up a more
      significant decline. Note how the Peerless software lets you put a vertical line on the chart to show
      the key values for the specified date.   Sell S9 and S12 signals are very bearish if a key support
      level breaks soon after them.

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       See how the jump in trading volume fueled the August rally in 1984.  Buy B10s tell us that the
       upper price band will be exceeded.

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        Again, you can see how Buy B10s tell us the market is in a strong uptrend.  The Buy B4
        which occurs at the upper band gives the same message.  Again, I emphasize that these
        signals were all in the original Peerless.

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       In October 1985, Peerless gave a bad signal.  It was soon reversed.  The false S9 signal came about
       because of the sudden jump in General Foods, then a component in the DJIA.  It was bought out
       by Phillip Morris.  At the time, we warned subscribers that this was an anomally and more evidence
       was needed before we would be selling.  When upward momentum takes hold, especially in all-time
       high territory, it best to hold tightly.    The Buy B4s and B10s are usually associated with points just
       before a powerful  uptrend.
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      Peerless teaches us not to be stubborn.  Sometimes a signal is wrong.  Accept it and trade with
      the current signal.  The bulge of the P-Indicator well into positive territory is bullish.
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      This was a year of market swings that went beyond the normal bands. By itself, going past the
      bands is not a reliable signal.  Our manual will show you many important aspects of this year's
      price behavior that are lessons elsewhere.
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          In June 1987, we had a bad Sell signal.  It was soon reversed by a Buy and the DJI rose much more.
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        This was the year Peerless made a name for itself.  It perfectly predicted the huge October decline.
        It did so with multiple Sell signals on the same day.  In addition, the October S9 was the third set
        of such signals in 6 months.  This is usually very bearish.  Don't forget that.  The Buy B16 was added
        a few years later, when I realized that the DJI when its under duress tends to fall a certain amount.
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            In January 1988, I recall speaking to a large group of investors in San Diego.  I told them
            we had just had a series of Buy B9s.  I believed the market would go substantially higher,
            even though the headlines in the Wall Street Journal were about layoffs at brokerages.

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       This was a year of rebuilding after the October 1987 Crash.  The market was on very good behavior,
       moving back and forth, as it turned out, between bands 3 standard deviations away from a least squares line.
       We do not use this tool.  But you can play with it, using Peerless.
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         If there is no Peerless Sell signal after a major Buy, assume the market will still go higher.  Many
         Peerless reversing Buys are held for more than 6 months. 
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        Many of our Peerless users were waiting for a new Sell S9 to buy puts and go short after a big advance.
        The October 1989 Sell S9 worked well.  But the DJI quickly righted itself in what we call the
        "sweet spot".  Buy our software and we will tell you how we define the sweet spot.
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           These were very good signals that we got real-time.  It was so good, we ran ads in Barrons with
           this chart.
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        You will want to learn how to some chart patterns, like head and shoulders patterns.  They augment
         Peerless signals.  1990 was a great year.  I remember relishing the ad the signal would make in Baron's,
         which we ran.
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        The Buy B12 and B10 take-off signal made the market very profitable in January 1991. Recall how
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         There were no Peerless major Sell signals.  the basic trend was considered UP.  But a trader using
         Peerless might have drawn lines of support and resistance, as shown below.  Our Peerless manual
         and the TigerSoft Automatic signals will help you do this when an opportunity like this presents itself again.
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         In a market that is strong in a stealthy way, we so sometimes get bad Sell signals.  That was
         true in ,May 1993.  The Sell signal was quickly reversed and the DJI went 10% higher over
         the rest of the year.
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         The Sell S4 signal was added in 2007, because it tested so well back to 1942 and gave a number
         of great signals, as it did here.   At the time, I expected resistance at 4000.  That was at the upper
         band.  And the Hotline warned of a sell-off to at least the lower band if the necklines in the
         head and shoulders patterns, shown below, were broken.  Greenspan raised interest rates here.
         That is what spooked the market.   Read my discussion of interest rate changes and stock prices.
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        The lower band did prove to be a good place to buy.  That is ordinarily the case if there has not
        been a major Sell from Peerless.  Since 1994, I have discovered a number of wonderful ways to know
        when a bottom is made after declines like this.   The Buy B19 is one of these ways.  Buy our software,
        get our Hotline or buy the new Peerless manual when it comes out and you will discover a wonderful way
        to call bottoms like those in April and November 1994. .Hint - seasonality usually becomes favorable
        after an October sel-off in the second year of a 4 year Presidential cycle.
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         As the DJI made new highs in 1995, there appeared a Sell S9 when this software was running real-time.
         Soon afterwards a Buy B15 appeared.   Our Hotline switched to a major Buy.  I remember this well
         because I had to explain the reasons to traders who wanted to stay short.  My new Peerless manual
         will discuss the important reasons for becoming bullish here.  They were to help later on, in 1999, too.
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1995    This was a tough year for some of our followers.   They could not accept that the market
            could run so far in one direction.  The P-Indicator was very positive and the DJI was advancing
           into all-time high ground.   This chart shows the need not to be stubborn.  The B18 and B15
           has been created earlier to allow for unusual momentum and duration of strength, as a guard
           against being stubborn.
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         This was a great period to be long the stock market.  Even the head and shoulders pattern
         that the DJI developed from February to May 1996 failed to break below its neckline, after
         getting new Peerless Buys.  Note the failure of the rising, diagonal support line's penetration
         in May 1996 to bring a decline.   Peerless does not use diagonal price trends.  We usually
         buy on weakness near the lower band and sell on strength near the upper band.
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       The market in this period was easy to make money in with Peerless.  The Sell S2 in August was
       slightly unprofitable.  But, you can see below, Peerless quickly reversed to a Buy and the market
       moved much higher. 
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         You will note that I had to add by hand the B10 in September 1997.  That is because the Peerless
          program needs about 100 days of data to get certain signals, and so all the signals may not appear
          for the first 3 months of any given chart. 
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1997     Sell S12s were relative rare as independent signals.  The top in January 1966 was called by this
             signal. The P-Indicator is less important in it, than the Tiuger Accumulation Index.  This signal
             was added in the 1980s when we went back to 1966 in out back testing.  It was not apparent
             in the initial testing done with the data only between 1970 and 1981.
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1997-1998  The combination of a Sell S9/S12 usually works.  See January 1973 and October 1987 for example.
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         In this period of time, surpassing the normal bands proved to be a good way to judge the market's trend.
         This simple approach is not advocated.
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         The period from March to June 1999 was unprofitable for Peerless.  This was by far the
         longest period in which it was not in synch with what the market was doing.  The February
        Sell S9 would have lost 11.6% if one had waited for the next Buy to cover short sales.
        At the time, we were not so stubborn.  A 7% stop loss was used then.  Other factors
        were bullish, which Peerless does not use.   These will be explained in the forthcoming Peerless
        manual.  Suffice it to say here, that this was a very speculative period.  Our NASDAQ
        program was on a Buy.  Greenspan would have been well-served to raise margin requirements
        here to put a curb on the internet bubble, but chose not to, because of his ant-regulation fundamentalism.
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         Anyone watching the mostly negative readings from our P-Indicator should have been aware
         that a bear market was approaching.   But tops take a long time to form.  The internet bubble
         was going full force here.  So many major sell signals was distinctly bearish.  The Sell signals
         in the first quarter of 1999 have since been eliminated.  Historical back-tetsing showed us
         that the first quarter of the years before the Presidential Election are never down from
         1927 to 2007.  That makes them bad places to employ  Sell S9s and Sell S12s.  Equally premature
         Sell S9s and Sell S12s would have occurred in 1935 and 1967.. So, we have now changed this
         part of the program.
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              January 2000 saw the DJI's peak before the 2001-2003 bear market.   More recent testing shows
              that most Sell signals should not be used in the period of the Santa Claus rally.  This is based on
              back-testing to 1915.  The result is that the newest Peerless doe snot show Sells her euntil the
              end of November.
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2000     It takes a long time for most bull markets to reverse course.  2000 was a pivotal year.  And like
             many Presidential Election years was probably stabalized for political reasons by the FED.  Volatility
             usually expands in pivotal years. Compare this with 2007.  The trading range that emerges is
             broader than the bands the we use, which normally work very well.   Other indexes were much
             weaker in the second half of the year than the DJIA.  Using DIA to trade in this environment
             worked much better than SPY or QQQQ.  Our Hotline will apprise you of such preferences.
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        Notice the many major Peerless Sell Signals without a market break. This was bearish.  It set the stage
        for the bear market of 2001-2003.  It shows that insiders knew the market was topping out and they were selling.
        This pattern was very apparent in the 1969, the 1972-1973 period, early 1974, 1980-1981 and 1987.
        And in 2007-2008, as you will see.
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         The bearish head and shoulders patterns and multiple Sells were warnings that a bear market
          was coming, even if there had been no 9/11.
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         We do not just use the P-Indicator as an internal strength indicator. Distribution by insiders
|         can be detected in other ways, too.   Look at Tiger's creation, the Accumulation Index for
          this period, too.  This indicator is very important. 
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         The Buy B19 signal was created on the day of its occurrence in July 2002, after back-testing it
         to 1965.  Notice the many major Buys in 2002.  The bear market would soon be over.  But,
         the bottom took 6 months to complete.
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          We spotted the March 2003 bottom just as it was taking place. Our new Peerless manual
           will show you how we did it.
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        The bull market began in March 2003.  See the tell-tale bulge from the P-Indicator. 
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        Presidential Election years often have their own market patterns.  Our Peerless manual will discuss them.
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        July's Buy B9 was only believed after the market advanced past the red moving average.  I was
        mislead by the head and shoulders top patterns.   Very little of the rally was missed as a result.
        The bigger mistake would have been made assuming that this September was going to be
        weak like so many other Octobers. 
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        The July 2007 Sell signal was very easy to spot because of Peerless.  It was very profitable.
        You can see how I advised using it from Blogs I wrote back then.

        July 25, 2007   The Curse of Cassandra: With Peerless You Will See The Future, but Your Friends
        Will Not Believe You.   

        August 2, 2007   A Look at Biggest Losers since major Peerless Sell S9/S12 on 7/17/2007
August 5, 2007
     Don't Be A Deer in The Head Lights.
                                      Look at How Many Valid Predictions Our Peerless System Has Made.
        November 22, 2007
World Bull Market Is Ending according to Numerous Head and Shoulders' Top Patterns

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           The warnings of a bigger sell off appeared in many ways.  You can see the many major Peerless Sells.
           But the truth is that it was very easy to find stocks that looked terrible.  This is usually a sign of a bear
           December 30, 2007        Insider Selling at Washington Mutual and CitiGroup
                                                   Should Make Shareholders "Mad as Hell"
           January 6, 2008 -           Insider Selling at Bear Stearns (BSC) and How TigerSoft Spots and Trades It.

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2008-2009    The Crash of 2008-2009 took on the appearance of DJIA declines in the 1930s more than
            anything seen from 1942 to mid 2008.  Spotting several tell-tale patterns, unique to the 1930s
            signify this.  In this extreme bearish environment, we switch to a special Mode to produce the
            appropriate signals.   Out Hotline discussed this at length as the decline was unfolding.  Readers
            seem pleased with the results.

                                                      WALL STREET RUNS THE SHOW.
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          A number of our TigerSoft Blogs would have helped folks avoid the Crash.:
          July 13, 2008    Investing in A Perfect Financial Storm(1).
         July 15, 2008     Investing in A Perfect Financial Storm(2).
         July 16, 2008     Investing in A Perfect Financial Storm(3).
         July 18, 2008    The SEC's Hand in The 2007-2008 Bear Market. 

          September 8, 2008      Why Does Treasury Secretary Paulsen Look So Frightened?
          September 18, 2008     The Greenspan "De-Regulation" of Banking, by Abolishing
                   the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, Has Led Directly to the 2007-2008 Bear Market. 
                    Both Political Parties Are To Blame.    Neither Admits This To Be The Central Malady.
          September 19, 2008     Bush Corruption and Cronyism Reach Dizzying Heights in Paulsen's Plan

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