SELL S12s
Marked in BOLD BLUE are CASES WHERE P-I was OVER +200.
These are of interest to us on 4/26/2007
Only 5 of the 93 Sell S12s occurred with the P-Indicator above +200.
Good gains (assuming one went short on the signal) followed in all 5
cases.
They ranged from 5.4% to 17.1%. Paper losses ranged from none to
3.2%.
The two 1997 cases occurred with the DJI making new highs, like now
and with the A/D Line confirming. In these cases, there were the
paper losses
of 2.3% and 3.2%.
What is most interesting is that both of the 1997 cases occurred with the
DJI only 1.3% and 1.7% over the 21-day ma. The DJI closed
today just
1.5% over the 21-day ma with a negative IP21 (-.032). What has
prevented
a Sell S12 for us now is first the much more positive P-I reading (+382 )
and the
fact that these S12s took place in the often bearish month of September.
Looking at all S12 cases, you will see that we can have seen 5 Sell S12s
in April.
The gains were smaller, ranging from +1.5% to 8.1%, but none of the paper
losses
were over 2.2%.
Table 2: Sell S12s since 1928 Where P-I was OVER +150.
=================================================================================
No. Data Signal DJIA Gain Paper Loss
la/ma AnnRoc P-I P-I Ch. ----- IP21
V-I OBVPct 65-dPct Change
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
1 19340205 S12 110.7 .171 None
1.059 1.547 +234 32.5 1293.8 -.01
680 .321 .255
A/D Line NC
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 19970918 S12 7922.72 .054 .032
1.013 .007 +259.9 -32.7 317.1 -.001
0 -.102 .021
A/D Line Confirming
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 19970929 S12 7991.43 .062 .023
1.0179 .451 +335.4 27.7 409.2 -.017
19 -.062 .044
A/D Line Confirming
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 20010104 S12 10912.41 .129 .007
1.0202 .392 +347.7 12.1 338.7 -.007
-36 .095 .02
Confirming
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 20090106 S12 9015.1 .087 none
1.037 .878 +562.6 156 524.3 .028
97 -.006 -.14
Confirming A/D Line but falling 65-dma and bear market environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2: All Sell S12s since 1928
=================================================================================
No. Data Signal DJIA Gain Paper Loss
la/ma AnnRoc P-I P-I Ch. ? IP21
V-I OBVPct 65-dPct Change
=================================================================================
=================================================================================
1 19290130 S12 312.6 .039 .030
1.0234 .492 -21.6 -21.9 -93.2 -.006
-415 .192 .219
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 19290430 S12 319.3 .081 .020
1.0362 .732 -3 32.8 -12.9 -.038
-216 .066 .032
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 19290617 S12 319.3 -.029 .029
1.0396 -.031 -45.6 12.6 -196.4 -.046
-486 .165 .009
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 19290828 S12 372.1 .436 .024
1.0373 .966 -20 -9 -86.4 -.12
-386 .128 .268
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 19291206 S12 260.1 .105 .008
1.1026 .121 10.5 19.4 45.2 .041
-500 .013 -.316
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 19300110 S12 250.0 -.014 .014
1.0226 -.593 -56.5 7.7 -283.2 -.047
-547 -.01 -.242
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 19310106 S12 172.7 .009 none
1.0299 -.524 -41.1 33.2 -232.6 -.009
-357 .098 -.157
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 19310320 S12 187.7 .256 none
1.0143 .425 -2.9 -1.5 -16.4 -.069
-215 -.034 .149
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 19320108 S12 81.8 .039 .086
1.0565 -.721 -76 30.4 -537.7 -.047
-390 -.115 -.156
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 19320216 S12 85.8 .449 .035
1.0915 -.015 -54.6 11.1 -386.7 -.058
-179 -.186 -.234
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 19320909 S12 76.2 .083 None
1.0542 1.125 85.9 -34.1 608.2 -.05
189 .098 .686
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 19330106 S12 62.9 .183 .023
1.0483 .656 -3.5 2.9 -25.3 -.002
-55 .206 -.122
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13 19330117 S12 61.8 .168 .008
1.0189 .118 -21.1 -1.5 -153.6 -.11
-92 .065 .002
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14 19330705 S12 102.2 .058 .064
1.0741 1.352 25.3 -19.3 184.1 -.064
-165 .194 .854
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 19330719 S12 103.6 .07 None
1.0218 .907 37.7 -64.7 274.6 -.146
-90 .159 .682
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16 19330817 S12 99.4 .022 .032
1.0478 -.526 -43.4 52.1 -316.2 -.022
-631 -.303 .223
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 19331117 S12 98.1 .009 .040
1.0609 1.19 42.7 15.5 310.6 -.016
59 .22 .016
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 19331206 S12 101.3 .04 .007
1.036 .941 7.9 -14.3 57.5 -.084
-37 .016 -.011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
19 19340205 S12 110.7 .171 None
1.059 1.547 +234 32.5 1293.8 -.01
680 .321 .255
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
20 19340821 S12 92.6 .033 .031
1.0294 .093 31.2 45.5 172.5 -.021
-87 -.015 -.027
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 19340925 S12 92.7 -.028 .028
1.0201 -.366 -76.3 1.3 -421.9 -.048
-117 -.228 -.033
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22 19341005 S12 92.9 -.026 .026
1.0285 .145 -16.9 26.9 -93.5 -.014
-49 .034 -.036
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23 19350104 S12 104.7 .044 .024
1.0274 .246 16.8 -11.4 94 -.046
-32 .08 .121
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
24 19360304 S12 156.7 .045 .033
1.0277 .477 28.8 -9.8 127.6 -.016
-139 .034 .101
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 19360406 S12 161.9 .075 none
1.034 .236 -37 -1 -161 -.152
-249 .108 .118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
26 19371207 S12 128.3 .027 .012
1.0328 -.048 -72.4 15.9 -322.1 -.079
-169 .11 -.277
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
27 19380106 S12 128.9 .044 .043
1.0321 -.086 -73.5 12.3 -388 -.104
-224 -.016 -.162
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
28 19380114 S12 131.8 .065 none
1.0389 .564 13 -11 68.6 -.015
-89 .031 -.05
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
29 19380221 S12 129.5 .236 .022
1.0408 -.115 -48.9 25 -258 -.074
-126 -.182 .097
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 19380419 S12 116.3 .053 .022
1.0545 -.226 -90.3 17.4 -476.7 -.236
-229 -.126 -.118
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
31 19380805 S12 144.5 .055 none
1.0285 .595 41 10.5 216.2 -.024
28 .029 .269
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
32 19380907 S12 143.1 .048 none
1.0186 -.102 -38.4 29.4 -202.7 -.079
-102 -.025 .264
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
33 19381110 S12 157.5 .066 none
1.0321 .618 63.6 0 335.7 .032
44 .128 .091
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
34 19390307 S12 149.4 .17 .019
1.0275 .418 32.6 -8.2 150.4 -.051
18 .239 -.003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
35 19410103 S12 132 .092 .012
1.0119 .11 -.8 16.4 -4.3 -.049
-44 .299 .002
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
36 19410110 S12 133.6 .103 none
1.0197 .2 45.5 11.4 242.8 -.068
7 .472 -.001
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
37 19490106 S12 180.2 .083 none
1.0196 .263 -5 45.4 -19.7 -.016
-101 .105 .002
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
38 19490124 S12 180.8 .086 none
1.0093 .226 47.3 -17.3 184.9 -.009
-29 .106 -.031
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
39 19561206 S12 492.7 .046 .014
1.0288 -.067 -82.3 -19.5 -261.7 -.078
-316 -.149 -.03
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
40 19590701 S12 650.2 .019 .043
1.0295 .24 -1.9 38.5 -5.5 -.062
-177 .178 .078
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
41 19591209 S12 671.2 -.007 .007
1.0284 .371 5.3 -18.5 15.8 -.055
-216 .345 .029
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42 19600105 S12 685.5 .107 none
1.018 .400 4 6 13 -.038
-170 .099 .085
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
43 19620710 S12 586 .012 .051
1.0343 -.327 -450.3 -102.6 -1251.9 -.103
-1390 -.134 -.164
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
44 19660106 S12 985.46 .213 .010
1.025 .423 34.4 -19.8 89.4 -.042
6 .379 .059
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
45 19660914 S12 806.23 .06 .010
1.0183 -.43 -224.7 24.4 -584.3 -.104
-15 -.235 -.102
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
46 19661025 S12 793.09 .004 .033
1.0258 .006 -81.9 3 -213 -.08
-11 .052 -.07
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
47 19670424 S12 887.53 .015 .025
1.0265 .15 33.8 -16.4 84.7 -.02
1 .19 .049
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
48 19680108 S12 908.92 .086 none
1.0195 .222 68.1 21.8 156.7 -.019
6 .17 -.017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
49 19691016 S12 838.77 .066 .029
1.0251 .178 24.4 31.4 54.9 -.012
0 -.099 -.003
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50 19700102 S12 809.7 .056 none
1.0264 .126 -86.9 67.5 -184.1 -.053
-2 0 -.004
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
51 19700616 S12 706.26 .052 .020
1.0294 .06 -146.8 22.9 -311.2 -.014
-2 -.145 -.077
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
52 19700720 S12 733.91 .036 .002
1.0498 .362 -45.2 10.1 -95.8 -.045
-2 .181 -.054
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
53 19710816 S12 888.95 .071 .036
1.0253 .006 -126 68.9 -267 -.131
-2 -.061 -.051
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
54 19710823 S12 892.38 .074 .032
1.03 .063 -98.2 31.1 -208.3 -.165
-2 .062 -.034
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
55 19710831 S12 898.07 .08 .025
1.0253 .451 37.8 -41.4 80.2 -.093
-1 .207 -.011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
56 19720804 S12 951.76 .032 .023
1.0256 .124 -94.4 -13.3 -202.1 -.025
-2 -.152 .02
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
57 19730111 S12 1051.7 .118 none
1.0235 .215 -95.6 9.3 -184.5 .002
-2 .06 .117
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
58 19731228 S12 848.02 .028 .039
1.0301 .119 -124.4 -40.5 -240.1 -.027
-3 -.154 -.107
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
59 19740102 S12 855.32 .036 .030
1.0378 .292 -85.5 39 -152.1 -.008
-2 -.076 -.103
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
60 19740222 S12 855.99 .051 .042
1.0268 -.214 21.5 7.5 38.3 -.083
-2 -.083 -.04
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
61 19740607 S12 853.72 .271 .007
1.0333 .039 -76.9 39.3 -136.9 -.074
-2 .032 -.03
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
62 19740807 S12 797.56 .22 none
1.0252 .387 32.1 48.1 57.2 -.043
-1 -.003 -.056
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
63 19741018 S12 654.88 .054 .030
1.033 -.359 100.3 -27.8 178.5 -.071
-1 -.152 -.17
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
64 19750829 S12 835.34 .048 .004
1.0243 .055 -138.7 23.1 -263.5 -.102
-3 .009 .025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
65 19780908 S12 907.74 .127 none
1.0194 .216 109.2 6.1 226.1 -.062
3 .08 .053
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
66 19810615 S12 1011.99 .172 none
1.0215 .469 146.1 0 254.3 -.001
3 .013 .022
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
67 19820129 S12 871.1 .073 none
1.0195 -.028 -87 26.7 -167.9 .005
-5 .051 .039
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
68 19830106 S12 1070.92 .038 .020
1.036 .161 36.3 36.3 71.5 -.092
0 -.138 .18
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
69 19840105 S12 1282.24 .108 .003
1.0194 .161 5.4 64.9 9.4 -.024
0 -.146 .04
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70 19870506 S12 2342.19 .052 none
1.021 -.328 -184.7 -8.1 -363.8 -.079
-15 -.155 .075
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
71 19870608 S12 2351.64 -.04 .04
1.0258 .088 -32 23.9 -62.9 -.045
-4 -.186 .033
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
72 19871002 S12 2640.99 .342 none
1.026 .18 -55.2 41.9 -108.7 -.017
-7 .072 .096
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
73 19970918 S12 7922.72 .054 .032
1.013 .007 +259.9 -32.7 317.1 -.001
0 -.102 .021
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
74 19970929 S12 7991.43 .062 .023
1.0179 .451 +335.4 27.7 409.2 -.017
19 -.062 .044
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
75 19980708 S12 9174.97 .168 .018
1.0301 .141 2.2 7 3.4 -.025
-17 .061 .021
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
76 19990817 S12 11117.07 .099 .019
1.0252 -.077 -424.2 58.2 -422.5 -.025
-119 -.132 .019
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
77 20000111 S12 11511.08 .13 .018
1.0171 .302 -30 -56.5 -28.8 -.06
-68 .249 .081
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
78 20010104 S12 10912.41 .129 .007
1.0202 .392 +347.7 12.1 338.7 -.007
-36 .095 .02
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
79 20020517 S12 10353.08 .209 none
1.0283 .175 48 15.8 48 -.018
-148 .083 .036
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
80 20030106 S12 8773.57 .137 .008
1.031 .05 184.3 83.4 178.2 .034
-67 -.065 .131
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
81 20040405 S12 10558.37 .056 none
1.027 -.043 24 -70 22 -.069
-145 -.152 .009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
82 20071206 S12 13619.89 .099 .008
1.0352 -.037 -145.6 47.2 -131.2 -.075
-173 -.094 .024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
83 20081105 S12 9139.27 .174 none
1.0203 -.408 -136.8 26.1 -123.2 -.051
-247 -.269 -.213
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
84 20090106 S12 9015.1 .087 none
1.037 .878 +562.6 156 524.3 .028
97 -.006 -.14
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
85 20100616 S12 10409.46 .061 .004
1.0253 -.253 12 2 11.7 -.013
-150 -.202 -.022
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
86 20110630 S12 12414.34 .075 .025
1.027 .122 78.4 162.4 78.1 -.067
-116 .013 .011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
87 20110830 S12 11559.95 .078 none
1.0253 -.603 7.3 29.6 7.3 -.018
-224 .149 -.071
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88 20111207 S12 12196.37 .035 .001
1.0295 .129 -34.6 -5.6 -34.5 -.027
-68 .104 .095
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
89 20120103 S12 12397.38 -.015 .015
1.0251 .372 246 109.4 246 -.09
1 .012 .111
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
90 20130910 S12 15191.06 .017 .032
1.040 .527 +479 198 479 .046
61 .327 .032
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
91 20150519 S12 18312.39 .144 none
1.013 .183 13 -90 -.008
-48 .115 .015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
92 20150716 S12 18120.25 .135 none
1.014 .144 79 +18 -.193
-129 .163 .004
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
93 20161110 S12 18807.88 -.017 .017
1.034 .435 -148 -17 -.011 -53
-53 -.112 .016
