PEERLESS SELL S4s since 1928
(C) 2017 Wm.Schmidt and www.tigersoft.com
www.tigersoft.com/Peerless-Research/S4s/INDEX.htm
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Sell S4s occur when the DJI's Accumulation Index (IP21) falls
below its 21-day ma.
Usually the DJI must be up 10% or so in the last 3 months.
But when the volume
(V-I and OBVPct) and Accumulation (IP21) indicators are
negative, this up percent
condition is relaxed.
Altogether, there have been 34 Sell S4s since 1928. On
average, they declined 11.0%
The success of the signals depends somewhat on when they occur
among the 12 months.
Look up the track record of the Sell S4s for the month of the
latest occurrence. March, April and
May Sell S4s at first seem generally less powerful than those that
occur at the end of Summer in August and
September. But if one leaves out the cases before 1945, then
the end-of-Summer S4s average
only 6.3%, which is 2.5% below the average for all signal since
1945.
Avg. Percent
Decline
April-May:
1.4% (5/18/1961), 3.2% (3/26/1981), 26.8% (5/17/2001), 7.6% (3/8/2005).
11.2% (4/21/2008) N= 5 Avg. decline = 10.0%
August-September: 40.1% (8/14/1929), 43.6% (8/28/1929), 36.5%
(8/3/1937). 5.1% (9/17/1951),
5.1% (8/26/1987), 9.5% (9/6/2000), 5.6% (9/21/2012) = 7 Avg. decline = 20.9%
One should also consider the effect of special bearishness of
the year after a Presidential Election.
Decline
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#13 19570711 S4 518 .178 0.5% Paper Loss Rose to 520.8 7/12
#14 19610518 S4 701.1 .014 No Paper Loss.
#16 19730109 S4 1047.11 .114 No paper loss.
#19 19810326 S4 1005.76 .032 1.9% Paper Loss Rose to 1024.05 on 4/27
#21 19850208 S4 1289.97 .033 0.7% Paper Loss Rose to 1299.36 on 3/1
#23 19890209 S4 2323.04 .031 No paper loss.
#26 19970207 S4 6855.8 .036 3.4% Paper Loss Rose to 7085.16 on 3/11
#29 20010517 S4 11248.58 .268 0.8% Paper Loss Rose to 11337.92 on 5/21
#31 20050308 S4 10912.47 .076 No paper loss.
#34 20090105 S4 8952.89 .081 No paper loss.
#35 20090603 S4 8675.24 .043 1.4% Paper Loss Rose to 8799.26 on 6/12
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N=11
.086
As you can see, there is a wide variation in the results for these
Sell S4s. Two of the three
biggest decline did occur in on-going bear markets: .268 in 2001
and .081 (1/5/2009).
Leaving out these on-going bear market cases, the 8.6% average
drops back to 6.2%.
Since 1945, there are only three cases where S4s occurred in
on-going bear markets
after 1945: .268 (5/17/2001), .112 (4/21/2008) ,.081
(1/5/2009). This means that
on-going bull market Sell S4s averaged 7.98% after 1945.
S14 Signals since 1928
Current case
20170418 S4 20940.51
la/ma ANNROC P-I P-I IP21 V-I OBV-Pct 65 Price 65-dma
Change Change AnnRoc
1.012 .162 +235 -76 -.067 -88 -.164 .043 .16
type 1 (Computer classification for comparisons).
---------------------- Previous S14 signals -----------------------------
#1 19290814 S4 354.9 .409 7.4% Paper Loss. Rose to 381.2 9/3
Also S9
la/ma ANNROC P-I P-I IP21 V-I OBV-Pct 65 Price 65-dma
Change Change AnnRoc
1.022 .367 -68 -4 -.114 -588 .228 .121 .44
type 1
Reversed By 19291112 B16
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#2 19290828 S4 372.1 .436 2.4% Paper Loss Rose to 381.2 9/3
Also S9 and S12
1.037 .966 -21 -9 -.120 -386 .128 .268 .89
type 1
Reversed By 19291112 B16
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#3 19310707 S4 145.9 .027 none
No other Sell signal nearby.
1.016 .832 +24 -27 0 +125 -.069 -.127 -.56
type 3
Reversed by 19310716 B17
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#4 19370803 S4 185.9 .365 1.8% Paper Loss Rose to 189.3
Sell S9 and S8 soon followed.
1.025 .902 59 -27 .114 37 .237 .066 .25
type 2
Reversed by 19371119 B16
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#5 19380119 S4 130.1 .053 1.6% Paper Loss Rose to 132.2
Also S9 and S12
1.022 .019 -40 -19 -.061 -159 -.079 -.04 -.17
type 9
Reversed by B17
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#6 19401003 S4 135.1 .025 2.0% Paper Loss Rose to 137.8 11/17
No other Sell signal.
1.024 .262 60 -13 .053 +48 .118 .117 .43
type 10
Reversed by 19401122 B11 131.7
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#7 19410711 S4 127.9 .135 1.7% Paper Loss Rose to 130.1 7/28
No other Sell nearby.
1.029 .547 +101 -5 .098 +89 .464 .055 .21
type 2
Reversed by 19411212 B17 110.6
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#8 19430702 S4 143.7 .030 1.3% Paper Loss Rose to 145.8 7/14
Already an S8.
1.018 .076 +26 -7 .076 -37 .183 .051 .19
type 3
Reversed by 19430810 B17 136.2
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------------------------ 1945 - 2017 -----------------------------------
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#9 19460611 S4 209.1 .22 0.6% Paper Loss Rose to 210.4 6/14
Already an S5 and head/shoulders
1.001 .114 0 -48 .143 -55 .228 .079 .29
type 4
Reversed by
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#10 19470711 S4 184.8 .103 1.1% Paper Loss Rose to 186.9 7/24
No other Sell
1.037 .667 +191 -6 .167 +161 .429 .065 .259
Type 3
Reversed by 19480316 B9
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#11 19471022 S4 184.4 .103 No Paper Loss
No other Sell
1.025 .424 72 0 .084 +42 .296 .004 .01
type 10
Reversed by 19480316 B9
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#12 19510917 S4 275.1 .053 0.3% Paper Loss Rose to 275.9 on 10/3
No other Sell
1.018 .424 +96 -25 .137 +69 .280 .089 .33
type 7
Reversed by 19511029 B3 260.4
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#13 19570711 S4 518 .178 0.5% Paper Loss Rose to 520.8 7/12
Also S7 and S9
1.018 .199 -39 -35 +.012 -214 .264 .081 .29
Type 1
Reversed by 19571017 B3 436.9
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#14 19610518 S4 701.1 .014 No Paper Loss.
No other Sell
1.02 .258 +57 -8 +.012 -74 -.062 .09 .33
Type 1
Reversed by 19610925 B2 691.2
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#15 19660110 S4 985.41 .213 1.0% Paper Loss Rose to 995.1 on 2/9
Also S12
1.021 .443 +37 +4 -.01 +6 .392 .051 .19
Type 9
Reversed by 19660830 B19 775.72
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#16 19730109 S4 1047.11 .114 No paper loss.
Also S9, S12, S15
1.021 .227 -90 -19 .032 -2 .051 .097 .35
Type 1
Reversed by 19730326 B2 927.9
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#17 19761222 S4 984.54 .051 2.0% Paper Loss Rose to 1004.65 on 12/31
S16 soon followed.
1.02 .354 +214 -7 .066 +2 .303 -.011 -.04
Type 10
Reversed by 19770209 B17 933.84
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#18 19800116 S4 865.19 .101 .051 4.3% Paper Loss Rose to 903.84 on 2/13
Only when S9 and S15 followed, did DJI decline.
Reversed on 3/28/1980 @ 777.65 with B11. (Bunker Hunt fiasco.)
(Use DATA7980.txt)
1.025 .317 +67 -19 -.016 +2 .027 .031 .12
Type 10
Reversed by 19800328 B19 777.65
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#19 19810326 S4 1005.76 .032 1.9% Paper Loss Rose to 1024.05 on 4/27
Only when S7 and S15 followed, did DJI decline.
Reversed on 5/4/1981 @ 973.34 with B2.
(Use DATA8081.txt)
1.022 .623 +249 -10 .013 +6 .073 .081 .30
Type 1
Reversed by 19810504 B2 973.34
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#20 19831122 S4 1275.81 .031 0.9% Paper Loss Rose to 1287.3 on 11/29
No other signal.
Reversed on 12/15/1983 @ 1236.79 with B2.
(Use DATA83.txt)
1.028 .258 +42 +34 .044 -2 .282 .06 .22
Type 10
Reversed by 19831215 1236.79
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#21 19850208 S4 1289.97 .033 0.7% Paper Loss Rose to 1299.36 on 3/1
No other signal.
1.02 .627 +369 -34 .072 +21 -.245 .036 .14
Type 2
Reversed by 19850315 B11 1247.35
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#22 19870826 S4 2701.85 .052 No paper loss.
No other signal.
1.023 .824 +96 -21 .189 +17 .242 .175 .62
Type 6
Reversed by 19870904 B17 2561.38
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#23 19890209 S4 2323.04 .031 No paper loss.
No other signal.
1.015 .525 +133 -40 .088 +22 .006 .093 .35
Type 2
Reversed by 19890227 B2 2250.36
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#24 19900102 S4 2810.15 .075 No paper loss.
Also S9, S15, S16
1.028 .453 +50 +30 .108 -1 .021 .042 .16
Type 9
Reversed by 19900122 B5 2600.45
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#25 19940203 S4 3967.66 .074 No paper loss.
No other signal
1.019 .517 +146 -23 .151 +9 .279 .073 .27
Type 9
Reversed by 19940405 B19 3675.41
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#26 19970207 S4 6855.8 .036 3.4% Paper Loss Rose to 7085.16 on 3/11
aLSO S9-V
1.012 .405 +71 +1 .103 -3 .105 .127 .45
Type 1
Reversed by 19970401 B17 6611.05
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#27 20000111 S4 11511.08 .13 1.8% Paper Loss Rose to 11722.98 on 1/14
Also S9, S12, S15, S16
1.017 .302 -30 -57 -.06 -68 .249 .08 .30
Type 10
Reversed by 20000309 B17 10010.73
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#28 20000906 S4 11310.64 .095 No paper loss.
Earlier S9 and S12. Simultaneous S2.
1.017 .476 103 -12 .013 -6 .414 .045 .17
Type 10
Reversed by 20001016 B1 10238.79
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#29 20010517 S4 11248.58 .268 0.8% Paper Loss Rose to 11337.92 on 5/21
Later S11 and head/shoulders pattern.
1.039 .698 327 -15 .136 34 -.005 .031 .12
Types 2 and 8
Reversed by 20010921 B16 8235.81
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#30 20031015 S4 9803.05 .018 0.6% Paper Loss Rose to 9858.46 on 11/3
No other Sell
1.025 .294 305 -102 .016 -30 .027 .073 .27
Type 10
Reversed by 20031118 B11 9624.16
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#31 20050308 S4 10912.47 .076 No paper loss.
No other Sell
1.011 .217 +148 -127 .023 -54 .051 .03 .11
Type 1
Reversed by 20050421 B19 10218.6
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#32 20071005 S4 14066.01 .079 0.7% Paper Loss Rose to 14164.53 on 10/9
Earlier S2
1.027 .612 +270 +40 .05 +54 .273 .036 .14
Type 10
Reversed by 20071119 B3 12958.44
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#33 20080421 S4 12825.02 .112 1.3% Paper Loss Rose to 13058.2 on 5/2
Later S9, S5 and S15 plus head/shoulders pattern.
1.024 .442 +282 -91 .025 +5 -.012 .028 .11
Type 5
Reversed by 20080708 B7 11384.12
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#34 20090105 S4 8952.89 .081 No paper loss.
Also S12 two days later.
1.033 .497 +406 0 .01 +31 -.109 -.174 -.82
Type 2
Reversed by 20090121 B19 8228.1
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#35 20090603 S4 8675.24 .043 1.4% Paper Loss Rose to 8799.26 on 6/12
Earlier S9-V. Simultaneous S5, S8 and S9-V.
1.027 .351 +223 -169 .008 -96 -.018 .282 .93
Type 1
Reversed by 20090623 B5 8322.91
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#36 20120921 S4 13579.47 .056 0.2% Paper Loss Rose to 13610.15 on 10/5
Also S8
1.021 .365 331 55 .014 23 .216 .058 .22
Type 10
Reversed by 20091102 B2
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Avg. Gain for all 36 S4s was 11.0%
Avg. Gain for all 27 S4s since 1945 was 8.8%
Avg. Gain for S4s when no other signal present since 1945 was 4.8%. 14 cases.
Avg. Gain for "Type 1" S4s since 1945 was 7.0% 7 cases.
Avg. Gain for S4s since 1945 when P-I over +95 was 7.4%. 17 cases.
Avg. Gain for S4s since 1945 when LA/MA<1.02 was 9.9%. 9 cases.
Avg. Gain for S4s when IP21, V-I and OBVPct< 0 was 9.2%. 2 cases.
Paper Losses since 1945
None - 10 cases
0.1% to 1.0% - 10 cases
1.1% to 2.0% - 6 cases
2.1% to 3.0% - 1 case
3.1% to 3.4% - 1 case
Sell S4s Can Occur Even though A/D Line is confirming DJI's strength.
This is uncommon but you can see the cases below.
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