September Peaks Are More likely than August Peaks.
Historically, we are 50% likely to see a top in September than August.
Looking back at ball markets when the DJI pulls back more than 5%, we
see 13 August peaks since 1929 and 20 September peaks. The subsequent
August declines are generally shallower than the September peaks. There
are a few cases where Peerless did not give a Sell at the August peak.
There
are no such cases in September. The DJI tends to move further from the
21-dma at the September peaks.
August (n=13)
1. 8/14/1936 1.023 V= -27 No Sell
2. 8/13/1937 1.024
Sell S9
3. 8/13/1946 1.018
Already on Sells
4. 8/11/1952 1.018 V=-20 No
Sell. H/S later
5. 8/2/1956 1.017
Sell S2
6. 8/3/1959 1.012 V=-196 S9-V
7. 8/14/1973 1.039
S9
8. 8/25/1987 1.034
S4 next day
9. 8/3/1992 1.019
No Sell 5% decline
10, 8/6/1997 1.024
No Sell 7% decline
11. 8/25/1999 1.039 V=-74 S9/S12
12. 8/4/2011 1.031
Earlier S9
13. 8/2/2013 1.012
Earlier S9
September (N=20)
1. 9/3/1929 1.051
S9/S12
2. 9/9/1932 1.054
S12
3. 9/10/1935 1.038
S2
4. 9/18/1939 1.095
S9
5. 9/17/1941 1.012
S12
6. 9/20/1943 1.033
S2
7. 9/13/1951 1.027
S4
8. 9/20/1955 1.025
S7/S8
9. 9/18/1967 1.032
S2
10. 9/4/1975 1.026 V=-2
S9V
11. 9/21/1976 1.033
S1
12. 9/8/1978 1.019
S12
13. 9/21/1979 1.017
S7/S8
14. 9/22/1980 1.03 V=+3 No Sell
5% decline
15. 9/4/1986 1.032
Earlier S9
16. 9/14/1992 1.028 V=0 S2
17. 9/6/2000 1.017
S2/S4
18. 9/7/2004 1.027
S2
19. 9/18/2013 1.014
Earlier S12
20. 9/18/2014 1.011
S17
19. 9