Sell S9vs: 1966-2011
                  (C) 2011 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
                                    7/22/2011

                   New Peerless Buys and Sells are always being looked for
                         on our Hotline as the market sets up what might be an
                         important technical pattern.  The research is detailed, time-consuming
                         and often unproductive.  There are a lot dead-ends.  But once
                         in a while, we learn a new way to reliably call market tops and bottoms
                         with our tools. 

                         In our 7/22/201  Hotline, I wrote:

       7/22/2011    "The Volume Fuel for An Extension of The Summer Rally is
         Running Low...  The research I have just done for the S9vs suggests
         we are at or near a top, in which there is a 45% chance for a decline
         below the lower band." 

       Lengthy back-testing showed how solid a  new "revised Sell S9v"  On an
            intermediate-term basis, adding it the exisiting Peerless system's track record
            since 1966 would have produced a +2.3% loss and new gains of +2.6%, + 5.2%
            and whatever is the result of the current (July 2011) pair of Sell S9vs.  The most
            recent  2011 S9vs may be the most important to date.  Regardless, the Sell S9V
            is reliable and suffers only very minor paper losses.  There has been only one
            loss in 21 cases, only one paper loss of more than 2.5% and when the S9V
            occurs, there is a 50%+ probability of a decline below the lower band.

            The exact formula for the V-Indicator is revealed to full Peerless/Tiger customers
            and will be published in the forthcoming Peerless books. . 

                                     2011's S9Vs

wpe1B5.jpg (60005 bytes)

         
                S9v Sell signals, as presented here, do duplicate many of
                other, more regular S9s which are based on negative divergences
                by the P-Indicator and IP21 from the DJI when it is at the
                upper band.  Many of the dates of these signals are the same
                for our regular S9s.


                                                   Results in 21 cases:

            1 decline to MA and then a 2.3% paper loss.
            2 2011 declines to LB in which the final outcome here is not decided.
            8 declines to LB 
            10 declines below LB   

                                                        Paper Losses: 
          In the 20 S9v cases since 1966, there was one +3% paper loss, five   +2% paper
          losses and three 1% paper loss.   In 12 of the 20 cases, the DJI fell immediately or so
          quickly that there was no paper loss of more than 1/2%.

                                Sell S9vs: 1966-2011


Date     DJI          la/ma  ann-roc  P  Pch    IP21  VI  Opct  Outcome
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1-6)

7/21/2011 12724.41   1.025  .513    269  -16  .085  -51  .005   ?(1-5)
    Decline to LB in 1 week.  Final outcome not determined. No Paper Loss.

7/5/2011  12569.87   1.037  .412    239   57 -.034  -48  .08 
     Decline to LB in 3 weeks.  Final outcome not determined.  Still open.
     1% paper loss. 

5/2/2011  12807.36   1.028  .467    212  -50  .147  -17  .33
                  Decline below LB in six weeks.  NO PAPER LOSS  
 There was no other Peerless sell here.  Peerless Gain = +5.9%


8/9/2010  10698.75   1.025  .572    477  -19  .246  -15  .047 decline to LB
There was no regular Peerless here.      then decline to LB in 6 weeks.
It would have gained an additional +4.0%       NO PAPER LOSS

7/26/2010 10542.43   1.041  .459    442  170  .166  -11  .037 1 wk higher, 
There was no regular Peerless here.        then decline to LB in 5 weeks..
It would have gained an additional +2.6%        PAPER LOSS = 1% 

6/17/2010 10434.17   1.028  .09     92   80   .038  -107 -.115 2 weeks higher
There was a regular S9/S12 here.         Decline below LB
   Gain = +6.3%   PAPER LOSS = 1% 

DATA10.BMP (1029654 bytes)
(7-11)

6/4/2009   8750.24   1.033  .478    316   92  .046  -73 .068  
Also a regular S9.            declined to LB in 5 weeks..NO PAPER LOSS


5/18/2009  8504.08   1.033   .54    335   63 -.005  -11 .045  
Peerless gave a better Sell S9 on 6/4/2009 at 8750.24
                          Initially declined to 21-dma 
                 and then to lower band in 5 weeks   PAPER LOSS = 3% 
wpeED61.jpg (57540 bytes)
   
8/8/2008   11734.32  1.030  .529     91   70  .088  -81 .072 crash followed
Peerless was already on a Sell S9 from 7/30/2002.    
                          Decline below LB in 6 weeks, but fell much further. NO PAPER LOSS

5/1/2008   13040.80  1.029  .405    178   36  .047  -28 .076 crash followed
Also a regular S15.  Decline below LB in 5 weeks,but fell much further.NO PAPER LOSS

wpeED62.jpg (68761 bytes)

5/9/2006   11639.77  1.027  .547    110   94  .079   -6 .326  Decline below LB
Also a regular S9. Decline below LB in 5 weeks,but fell further.NO PAPER LOSS

wpeED63.jpg (61295 bytes)

 (12-16)

8/16/2002   8778.06  1.042  .522      2   73  .134 -180 -.067 w wk higher 
Peerless was already on a Sell S9 from 8/12/2002.  
                                           Decline below LB in five weeks    PAPER LOSS = 2% 
wpeED64.jpg (66281 bytes)   

8/22/2000 11139.15  1.027   .499    108   35  .023   -5  .389 rallied 1 wk more 
          and then  Decline below LB in four weeks   PAPER LOSS = 2% 
This would have reversed the existing Peerless Buy 
slightly lower and earlier than Sell S4 right at the top.
 
8/14/2000 11176.14  1.039   .403     32   18 -.004  -53  .22 rallied 2 weeks and 
This would have reversed the existing Peerless Buy        
slightly lower and earlier than Sell S4 right at the top. PAPER LOSS = 2% 
                    Decline below LB in five weeks 
wpeED65.jpg (69232 bytes)

8/23/1999 11299.76  1.04    .427   -292   66  .064  -74 -.041 
Also a regular S9.      Decline below LB in four weeks   NO PAPER LOSS

7/9/1999  11193.69  1.034   .555     69   39  .085   -6  .251  
Peerless was already on a Sell. Fell to lower band in 3 weeks.NO PAPER LOSS.
Using Peerless to reverse this S9V would have brought a 7.1% gain.

wpeED66.jpg (65532 bytes)

 (16-21)

8/12/1996  5704.98  1.034   .42      76    8  .118   -7  .313 
            Decline to a little below ma. 
  Using Peerless to reverse this S9V would have brought a 2.3% loss.
  Here the DJI refused to breakdown and instead made a classic flat-topped
  breakout into all-time high territory.  This is a bullish situation.
  The V-Indicator also turned positive for 3 weeks.  This is bullish.

wpe1B8.jpg (51637 bytes)


7/19/1990  2993.81  1.027   .41       0  -16  .065   -5  .274   
Also a regular S9.     Decline below LB    NO PAPER LOSS
wpeED69.jpg (51620 bytes)
 
7/16/1982   828.67  1.025   .469      1   16  .119   -2  .166  
Also a regular S9.     Fell to LB   NO PAPER LOSS
wpeED68.jpg (55674 bytes)

9/4/1975   838.31  1.026   .411    -61   44 -.023   -2  .193  
Also a regular S9/S12.   Fell to LB  NO PAPER LOSS
wpeED67.jpg (53961 bytes)

8/26/1971   906.10  1.041   .467     24   33 -.105   -1  .176 
         Rose another week and then Decline below LB in 8 weeks. PAPER LOSS = 2% 
Also an S9 on 8/17/71 and regular S12 on 8/23/1971 and 8/31/71.
DATA71.BMP (1029654 bytes)

============================================================================
 
 Eliminated because of DJI being too far above the 21-dma:
                    LA/MA 
8/20/1982   869.29  1.074   .55      -1   46 -.06    -1 -.191 Big LOSS. 
 
8/24/1970   759.58  1.048   .483     43   44  .111   -1  .102 Big LOSS. 
                            There is a decline to (MA+LB)/2 or 747.47 
 
7/17/1970   735.08  1.053   .52     -56   34 -.011   -2  .269 Fell to LB