Sell S16 (C) 2013 William Schmidt,
Ph.D. December Version 12/31/2013
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Santa Claus Rally Fails To Bring The Strong Year-End Rally
That Normally Is Seen.
| Table 1 - Sell S16 |
There have been 13 separate Sell S16s in the 84 years between
2012-1928.
This counts more than one Sell S6 in a single year end. The
results are shown
in Table II below. Using this approach, the average decline until
the next
Peerless Buy was 7.1%. Not counted in these statistics
was an additional Sell S16 which is based on different rules that
occurred only once
using the Extreme Bearish Mode between 1929 and 1932
>10%
4
5%-9.99%
3
2%-4.99%
5
0%-1.99%
1
losses
0
Table 2 - Sell
S1619341231 S16 104 .038
19350102 S16 104.5 .042
19381230 S16 154.4 .1
19400103 S16 152.8 .045
19420102 S16 112.8 .132
19521230 S16 292 .022
19591231 S16 679.3 .005
19611228 S16 731.5 .177
19700102 S16 809.7 .056
19761229 S16 994.93 .061
19810102 S16 972.78 .035
19900102 S16 2810.15 .075
19991229 S16 11484.66 .128
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No. = 13 .071
PE 3 .043 PE +1 2 .106 PE +2 5 .080 PE +3 3 .058 Jan 6 .064 Dec 7 .076 1-10 5 .064 11-20 0 21-31 8 .076 There is also a different type of Extreme Bear Market Sell S16: 19311110 S16 113.9 .301 |
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7/27/2013 Sell S16s
This is a signal that can only occur on the last two trading days of the year
and the first two trading days of the next year.
.
The Peerless V-Indicator must normally not be more than +4. The 1940
cases is the exception. Here the OBVPct was only +.057 despite the
normally bullish seasonality and the DJI was above the 2.5% upper band.
The DJI must be not be showing any special signs of strength. It may
only close between the 2.3% and 2.95% upper bands. Strength more than
this consistently results in higher prices. We also eliminate cases where
the DJI is up more than 15.5% over the last 65 trading days and the annualized
rate of change of the 65-dma must not be more than +.60.
Rallies that fail at this time of year are risky for the bullish trader, especially
if the market is already bearish. See the cases of 1934-1935, 1938-1939,
1970-1971.
Sells S16s
1
12/31/1934 +3.8%
1.024 .141 2
1 12
-.065 - 49 .077 .130
also 1/2/1935
Fell 5% and then rallied abd produced a paper
loss of 1%.
2
12/30/1938 +10.0%
1.0291 .366 -4 -10
-20
.046 0 .260 .132
-4 is low V-I
3
*1/3/1940 Also S1 +4.5%
1.026 .505 68 17 +343 .072 +54 .057 -.002 Below 65 day high, too.
.057 is low OBV Pct.
4
12/30/1952 +9.8
1.022 .346 37 -6 139 .129 -57 .361 .074
-57 is low V-I
5
12/31/1959 +9.9%
1.011 .266 -18
-8 -52 -.057 -243 .082 .067
6
12/28/1961 +26.3%
1.005 .056 -78 -2 -225 -.042 -510 .165 .057
7
1/2/1970 +5.6%
1.026 .126
-87 67 -185 -.053 -2 -.001
-.005
8
12/29/76
+6.1%
1.022 .55 235 6 434 .096 +2
.379 -.015
+2 is low VI
9
*1/2/1981 +3.5%
1.029 -.264 -71
30 -123
-.04 -5 -.016 .017
10 1/2/1990
+7.5%
1.028 .453 50 30
99 .108 -1 .02 .042
11
12/29/1999 +12.8% 2.1% 1.025
.571 -216 98
-215 -.063 -67 .23
.102
1.025 .571 -216 98 -215
-.063 -67 .23 .114
This signal recognizes that early January can bring an abrupt pivot downwards.
. The weakness at their peaks is picked by several different signals. The Sell
Sell S9s suggest a weak P-Indicator and the S15 occurs because of weak
V-Indicator readings in conjunction with mediocre breadth.
Sell S1 - 1/8/1040
Sell S9 - 1/6/1942
1/10/1946
1/7/1958
1/5/1967
Sell S15
1/5/1960
1/5/1973
1/2/1973
1/2/1990
1/7/2007
Occurrences where there is too much price
strength to make these signals work even though
the V-Indicator is negative.
12/31/1929
1.066
.186 .051
-398 .201
12/30/1943
1.022
.52
.145
0
.195
12/31/1958
1.0293 .552
.04
-83
.099
12/31/1975
1.033 -.048
-.029
-3
-.01
12/29/1983
1.027
.656
-.111
0
.131
12/29/1998
1.035 -.016
.042 -51
.14