SELL S13   December 2013 Peerless (C) 2013 William Schmidt, Ph.D.
 
Very Steep Decline from a Bull Market Peak.
  Extraordinarily Weak Downward Momentum. 
  
     
       Sell S13s have averaged declines of 15.1%

                Size of Declines after Sell S13
                to next Buy Signal since 1928
>10%                7   
5%-9.99%         6  
2%-4.99%         0 
0%-1.99%         1 
losses                 2

SELL S13s:    1928-2013  
19291024      S13            299.5         .3 
19300616      S13            230.1         .253 
19301006      S13            202.8         .153 
19310915      S13            120.8         .177
19320407      S13             66.2         .285
19330223      S13             51.9         .010
19370910      S13            157.9         .252  
19370917      S13            162.2         .272  
19400514      S13            128.3         .093
19460909      S13            172.0         .052
19550926      S13            455.6        -.006           
19740823      S13            686.8         .094
19871103      S13            1963.53       .077  
20010918      S13            8903.4        .075
20020719      S13            8019.26      -.021 
20080929      S13            10365.45      .094
------------------------------------------------ 
                          No = 16          .151
                         
7    6    0   1  2
PE          3     .157  
PE +1       5     .182
PE +2       5     .107
PE +3       3     .083

Jan         0    
Feb         1      .010
Mar         0 
Apr         1      .285
May         1      .093
Jun         1      .253
Jul         1     -.021
Aug         1      .094
Sept        7      .131
Oct         2      .227
Nov         1      .077
Dec         0
1-10        3      .160
11-20       2      .175
21-31       6      .228

 

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            Last edited   8/21/2011 (C) 2011 www.tigersoft.com

               The 1929 Sell S13E was also an S13
DATA29E.BMP (1020054 bytes)

 
There are two variations of this. The first Sell S13.
  is based on the DJI falling more than 16% in 20 or fewer trading Days.
  It is not required that we switch to Extreme Bearish mode after
  a Sell S13.

  The second Sell S13E shows momentum in extremely negative.
  There are only two cases:
      1) -- The first occurs where the DJI is down 19.4% in 36 days and has
a V-Indicator is below -700, IP21 is below -.154 and OPct is below -.33.
This is the 1929 case. 
      2) --- The DJI is down more than 19.4% in 28 trading days and the
  Accumulation Index is below -.197 with V-Indicator below -396
  and OPct below -.107 (1937 case.)  

  The big difference between the S13 and the S13E is that with the S13E,
  users should switch to the Extreme Bearish Mode and no longer
  use the normal mode signals until the DJI gets up above the falling
  200-dma or the 65-dma is penetrated as occured in 2009 following
  a 50% correction of the previous long-term trend.  (See discussion
  about the end of the 2007-2009 bear market.)

   Examples:

.  The first chart for 1937 shows the Normal Mode
  Peerless signals.  As soon as the S13E occurs, we must use the
  Extreme Bearish Mode and use its signals.  These are shown in
  the second chart 1937 chart shown firther below.


                                   1937 Normal Mode Chart.
     The S13E Should get use to switch to the Extreme Bearish Mode.
     The first S13 here would not have called for a change of mode.  
     Continue to use the normal mode after a Sell S13.

DATA1937.BMP (1020054 bytes)

T

Sell S13E
   The LA/MA ranges from .874 ro .900
   The 21DMA-ROC ranges from -1.163 to -2.845.
   The IP21 ranges from -.154 to -.348
   The OPct ranges from -.259 to -.484

1)
10/23/1929    305.9        +25.6%
Next Buy, B3, in Extreme Bearish Mode on 11/18/29 at 227.6
    
CL/MA     21-DMA-ROC  P-I        Ch.        IP21          V-I           OPct
     .899   -1.623  -142  -13  -.154   -1103   -.361
wpe1B8.jpg (53712 bytes)
2)
10/9/1930      192            +10.5% 
Next Buy, B7, in Extreme Bearish Mode on 1/23/31 at 171.8
    
CL/MA     21-DMA-ROC     P-I          Ch.          IP21            V-I           OPct
     .874   -2.845    -220     -36   -.236  -1203  -.484

DATA3031.BMP (1029654 bytes)
3)
9/24/1937         147.4    +22.5%
     
CL/MA     21-DMA-ROC    P-I        Ch.        IP21         V-I          OPct
     .895   -2.454    -222  -34   -.348  -513  -.259

wpe1B5.jpg (55932 bytes)

No S13E in 1940, 1946, 1987, 1990, 1996